As the Spiegel article so accurately pointed out, May is a creature of the Party - indeed, the Party and the Union matter to her more than almost anything else and to be the PM who lost one or both would be the ultimate tragedy so everything that has happened since 23/6/16 has been predicated on holding together the sack of cats known as the Conservative Party and the Union.
Henry IV supposedly claimed Paris was worth a mass. He forsook his own religious birthright to keep France united and at peace. Is the unity of the Conservative Party worth us all going over the edge? As HYUFD pointed out when I raised this with him, the Conservative Party spent the better part of a quarter of a century in opposition in the mid 19th Century but returned to power in time.
Personally I see the current crisis as inherently the same as the referendum. The powerful, educated and metropolitan supprt remain in greater numbers, and this is generally the make up of our media, political class and civil service. They are now having to enact something they are deeply unhappy with and this is why May kicks the can down the road, the only overwhelming majority is for no deal, and a significant number of MPs believe the way to enact leaving the EU is to have another referendum which they hope remain would win.
In reality and as pointed out by John Curtice yesterday People have not really changed your mind, even if you think that polls that predicted a remain win are now accurately Leavers.
When they voted down Brexit for the second time. It did go from "politicians are idiots" to "Tory MPs are idiots". I think that's been clear for a while.
And if Brexit goes well and we don't go back cap in hand?
Define well
We only had to wipe our arses with dock leaves for 12 weeks?
Akin to after 'Black Wednesday' where the country entered a surprisingly strong period of growth.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if growth increases following a No Deal Brexit. Or any other scenario. It is the uncertainty that is putting so much on hold at the minute.
New words by Sunil, original "Bedsitter" music by Almond & Ball.
Friday morning going slow I'm watching the election show Lots of Ladbrokes slips on the floor Memories of the night before Out knocking up and having fun Now I've stopped reading The Sun Waiting for the results to show But why I voted no one knows
Voting, polling Blogging, trolling And now I'm all alone In Brexit Land My only home
I think it's time to write a thread To vent the bemusement in my head Spent my money on online bookies Got nowt here but all the cookies Clean my suit and my rosette Election promises to forget Start campaigning all over again Kid myself I'm having fun
Voting, polling Blogging, trolling And now I'm all alone In Brexit Land My only home
Looking out from my worldview I've really nothing else to do Seems like I have started fretting Let's read Political Betting Forget The Mirror and The Times The battle bus with such great lines Look around and I can see A thousand punters just like me
Voting, polling Blogging, trolling And now I'm all alone In Brexit Land My only home
Voting, polling Blogging, trolling And now I'm all alone In Brexit Land My only home
Personally I see the current crisis as inherently the same as the referendum. The powerful, educated and metropolitan supprt remain in greater numbers, and this is generally the make up of our media, political class and civil service. They are now having to enact something they are deeply unhappy with and this is why May kicks the can down the road, the only overwhelming majority is for no deal, and a significant number of MPs believe the way to enact leaving the EU is to have another referendum which they hope remain would win.
In reality and as pointed out by John Curtice yesterday People have not really changed your mind, even if you think that polls that predicted a remain win are now accurately Leavers.
That may well be true, but the problem at the heart of that analysis and this whole circus is that the things people are unhappy about WILL NOT BE SOLVED BY BREXIT!!!
If politicians had been honest with the public about the issues, and the EU, we would not be in this mess right now.
And @bigjohnowls says Corbyn cannot be blamed in any way.
It does indicate that opposition to a second referendum in labour mps is much larger than perceived
It doesn’t have anything to do with a 2nd ref. If Labour want a GE and a renegotiation as per their mythical policy, a long extension is required.
They are facilitating no deal!!!
Its like Jezza isn't very pro-EU and thinks the only way he can enact his socialist utopia is after a no-deal crash out.
Shit Tory BREXIT or Shit Tory crash out!!
On that, I have to agree with your analysis Mr. Owls.
Imagine where your favoured party would be if you had a decent leader. Blair or even Brown would have been destroying the government if either were LoTO. They would have a 20 point lead in the polls. Where is Mr Thicko though? He can't even convince the electorate that he is a better potential PM than Theresa May FFS!! It would be laughable were it not so tragic for the country.
Then you will have no objection to this Parliament finding ways to hold this government to account when it wilfully disregards the instructions given to it.
Since the government is trying to find ways to honour the instruction given to it by the people and this Parliament is not, yes I do object.
So you do want the government to ignore Parliament? So you do want to destroy Parliamentary sovereignty?
Make your mind up. The principle is not contingent on whether you like Parliament’s instructions.
When parliament ignores the will of the people expressed in a referendum given by parliament then parliament is in contempt of the people . This parliament needs to be dissolved and a new parliament needs to be elected by the people to carry out there clear instructions given in 2016
The last general election took place in 2017. Democracy did not stop in 2016.
Yes and in 2017 both main parties who took 80% of the vote promised to enact the 2016 result. They have both failed to honour the people’s instructions they promised to in the manifestos
Theresa May sought a mandate to crush the saboteurs. After careful reflection the public decided not to give her that. With opposition to the referendum result now consistently ahead of Leave, I’m very doubtful that a fresh election would produce the result you crave. You have to deal with the world as it is, not as you would wish it to be.
So be it. If Parliament isn't happy with the Government it retains the ability to VONC the government and we go to an election.
VONC is not Parliament's only option. An a VONC does not necessarily lead to an election.
When the government so wilfully disregards its own mandate and even its own word, Parliament must find a way to find its voice.
The government's mandate is to leave the EU. Parliament is the one wilfully disregarding that.
Parliament instructed it to seek a long delay if the meaningful vote were not passed by now. The Deputy Prime Minister averred the same last week. Or do Leavers now hold Parliament in contempt along with every other civic institution?
MP's currently have a favorability rating of 5%, so the answer is plain.
Yes, the nihilism of Leavers has been mortally successful.
I rather think MPs have brought this on themselves
Starting with the expenses scandal 10 years ago its been all downhill ever since
I think it started with Bernie Ecclestone affair, and the renewed sense that politicians could get away with a whole new class of corruption if the press felt they were "the good guys".
That is not the right distinction. Ecclestone was a different class of corruption but in the sense that it did not involve personal enrichment of MPs, as opposed to, for instance, cash for questions that preceded it and expenses that followed. Millionaire donors had been around almost forever, especially on the Tory side, without exciting comment let alone revolution.
True; maybe Mandelson's mortgages would be a better example from that era, but somehow don't feel as institutional.
I suppose the key with the expenses is that this is something that was 100% normalized, that, when the public found out, was a total catastrophe for all sides. The public were wholly, if only peripherally, aware of the corruption inherent in big donors.
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Precisely. If we go to No Deal the EU will very rapidly want to talk about a trade deal as they won't be getting a penny of their £39 billion (which we would still agree to pay as part of the negotiations but now have as leverege) plus the Irish border will be their problem rather than ours.
and you think remainers have a plan for remaining ?
No. But that is why we need a Pause while we think about what our European strategy should be - as I have repeatedly bored on in comments below the line and headers above it.
I see precious little evidence that an extension will give you the strategy you would want without some major change in the make up of Parliament probably via a GE and I dont yet see an appetitie for that.
Parliament is both blocked internally and at odds with its own electorate. Imo there is no more chance of developing a common view in 12 months time than there is in 12 days time,
Neither Leave or Remain has a plan for the coming 9 days let alone the medium to long term.
That is why there must be a commission rather than hoping for a coherent view to emerge by chance. A general election might well produce a majority for one course or another but probably not a plausible path to a desirable end state.
And what will a commission achieve ? Commissions are currently establisment code for looking like doing something while actually doing nothing.
I voted Leave because I dont trust UK politicians over Europe. I trust Juncker and co more because they say upfront what their aims are and are totally clear about it - its ever closer Union. UK MPs pretending it isnt while hoping to finesse us in to the Union without consulting the electorate has been the norm for the last 2 decades. Current shenanigans in the HoC simply highlight the truth of the matter.
A commission would establish a reified Brexit as opposed to 15 million distinct unicorns. It would establish what would be the consequences of Norway or Canada or WTO, with or without any of the pluses MPs like to add to their own favoured variants. JRM tells us Britain would be hundreds of billions of pounds better off. He may be right. Where is this nirvana and how do we get from here to there? That's the point of the commission. Otherwise we'd be voting on the basis of, as David Davis told us, Germany acting illegally in order to sign a deal with Britain.
I think thats a spot of unicorn farming on its own
You will struggle to find a neutral party to run a commission - minds are now made up and entrenched - and a mixed commission will have the same mexican standoff as Parliament.
Worse what actually are the issues ? Remainers are all about their wallets and Leavers are all about a more abstract sovereignty - which gets priority ?
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****
Mr Cameron says he is teaching his own children that Britain is “special” and should belong to international organisations in order to “shape the world’s future as well as its past”.
“I think the world I want my children to grow up in is [one] where there’s a big, bold, brave Britain at the heart of these institutions"
I think thats a spot of unicorn farming on its own
You will struggle to find a neutral party to run a commission - minds are now made up and entrenched - and a mixed commission will have the same mexican standoff as Parliament.
Worse what actually are the issues ? Remainers are all about their wallets and Leavers are all about a more abstract sovereignty - which gets priority ?
It would be interesting for a commission to have enumerated those distinctions, though. Here are the ways in which we are defining our "sovereignty", and the ways in which they could be constrained pre-post Brexit, these are the ways in which we are defining economic impact, and the range of views... Rather than the vague mudslinging in the press. We could have spent a few years doing that, then put the proposals to a referendum.
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****
Why on Earth should the hardliners back the EU's stated wish? The EU's stated wish is for us not to leave. The hardliners stated wish is for us to leave and that's what the public voted for. Nor do the hardliners want the EU to "gain" anything.
If Parliament wants to prevent no deal there is a very easy and quick option waiting to be ratified. If not we can go to no deal quite quickly. Either way there's nothing to gain from a long delay.
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****
I was with you to the last sentence, but can you explain why this is any more the fault of 'the Tories' rather than the SNP, LibDems, and Labour who teamed up with the ERG to pursue their goal of crashing out with no deal?
when are people going to work out that labours aim is to force a hard brexit, tories get the blame for it, and then Corbyn hs free reign to make changes when he's PM which he can't when part of the EU.
Then you will have no objection to this Parliament finding ways to hold this government to account when it wilfully disregards the instructions given to it.
Since the government is trying to find ways to honour the instruction given to it by the people and this Parliament is not, yes I do object.
So you do want the government to ignore Parliament? So you do want to destroy Parliamentary sovereignty?
Make your mind up. The principle is not contingent on whether you like Parliament’s instructions.
When parliament ignores the will of the people expressed in a referendum given by parliament then parliament is in contempt of the people . This parliament needs to be dissolved and a new parliament needs to be elected by the people to carry out there clear instructions given in 2016
The last general election took place in 2017. Democracy did not stop in 2016.
Yes and in 2017 both main parties who took 80% of the vote promised to enact the 2016 result. They have both failed to honour the people’s instructions they promised to in the manifestos
Theresa May sought a mandate to crush the saboteurs. After careful reflection the public decided not to give her that. With opposition to the referendum result now consistently ahead of Leave, I’m very doubtful that a fresh election would produce the result you crave. You have to deal with the world as it is, not as you would wish it to be.
I agree with the first part but you are also not dealing with reality only a third of the polls ahead of the referendums had leave ahead - we cannot be certain about future results but we should enact the last result.
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****
Why would the EU want a long delay? That means more faffing around. Surely, it's better to say piss or get off the pot?
I think thats a spot of unicorn farming on its own
You will struggle to find a neutral party to run a commission - minds are now made up and entrenched - and a mixed commission will have the same mexican standoff as Parliament.
Worse what actually are the issues ? Remainers are all about their wallets and Leavers are all about a more abstract sovereignty - which gets priority ?
It would be interesting for a commission to have enumerated those distinctions, though. Here are the ways in which we are defining our "sovereignty", and the ways in which they could be constrained pre-post Brexit, these are the ways in which we are defining economic impact, and the range of views... Rather than the vague mudslinging in the press. We could have spent a few years doing that, then put the proposals to a referendum.
But that is not what happened.
yes
the time for a commission was pre the referendum but Cameron and Osborne explicitly ruled that out along with any preparation for what a leave vote might mean
When they voted down Brexit for the second time. It did go from "politicians are idiots" to "Tory MPs are idiots". I think that's been clear for a while.
And this is the only reason that Theresa there-isn't-a-word-in-English-to-express-her-abjectness May is still polling ahead of each of Labour, Corbyn and the Conservatives. She is seen to be wading through their tide of shit. A tide into which they continue to defacate....
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****
I was with you to the last sentence, but can you explain why this is any more the fault of 'the Tories' rather than the SNP, LibDems, and Labour who teamed up with the ERG to pursue their goal of crashing out with no deal?
Indeed. At least the ERG were open and honest about seeking no deal.
I have no sympathy for any crocodile tears coming from the SNP, LibDems and Labour who pretend to oppose no deal while rejecting the only deal the EU is willing to offer.
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****
I was with you to the last sentence, but can you explain why this is any more the fault of 'the Tories' rather than the SNP, LibDems, and Labour who teamed up with the ERG to pursue their goal of crashing out with no deal?
The SNP are in no way guilty in this. Their position from the start was to oppose Brexit after their country voted against it by a hefty majority. I have no idea whether they would have continued to follow the wishes of their electorate had the Scottish vote gone Leave but they have been utterly consistent and open about their position to date. I see nothing to criticise them over on Brexit.
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****
I was with you to the last sentence, but can you explain why this is any more the fault of 'the Tories' rather than the SNP, LibDems, and Labour who teamed up with the ERG to pursue their goal of crashing out with no deal?
The SNP are in no way guilty in this. Their position from the start was to oppose Brexit after their country voted against it by a hefty majority. I have no idea whether they would have continued to follow the wishes of their electorate had the Scottish vote gone Leave but they have been utterly consistent and open about their position to date. I see nothing to criticise them over on Brexit.
That's fair. They also opposed A50 invocation.
Though there is somewhat an irony in the SNP saying an independence referendum can be ignored or reversed.
And this is the only reason that Theresa there-isn't-a-word-in-English-to-express-her-abjectness May is still polling ahead of each of Labour, Corbyn and the Conservatives. She is seen to be wading through their tide of shit. A tide into which they continue to defacate....
There is a residual sense of sympathy or pity for the Prime Minister but as has been noted downthread, the public mood seems to be shifting away from "it's everyone's fault" to the specific "it's the Conservative Government's fault" and we are 6 weeks away from a huge round of local elections where the Conservatives are defending 5,000 seats.
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****
I was with you to the last sentence, but can you explain why this is any more the fault of 'the Tories' rather than the SNP, LibDems, and Labour who teamed up with the ERG to pursue their goal of crashing out with no deal?
The SNP are in no way guilty in this. Their position from the start was to oppose Brexit after their country voted against it by a hefty majority. I have no idea whether they would have continued to follow the wishes of their electorate had the Scottish vote gone Leave but they have been utterly consistent and open about their position to date. I see nothing to criticise them over on Brexit.
I take the point (and the same goes for most of the LibDems), but the fact still remains that they are facilitating exactly what they claim is the most unacceptable option, starting from where we are now.
But yes, it's Labour who are the cynical ones here.
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****
I was with you to the last sentence, but can you explain why this is any more the fault of 'the Tories' rather than the SNP, LibDems, and Labour who teamed up with the ERG to pursue their goal of crashing out with no deal?
The SNP are in no way guilty in this. Their position from the start was to oppose Brexit after their country voted against it by a hefty majority. I have no idea whether they would have continued to follow the wishes of their electorate had the Scottish vote gone Leave but they have been utterly consistent and open about their position to date. I see nothing to criticise them over on Brexit.
Lib Dems, too. They've opposed Brexit since 2015, albeit previously they favoured a referendum.
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****
Why would the EU want a long delay? That means more faffing around. Surely, it's better to say piss or get off the pot?
My reading of the situation is that the ERG believe their dream of No Deal is closer than ever before.
That is why there must be a commission rather than hoping for a coherent view to emerge by chance. A general election might well produce a majority for one course or another but probably not a plausible path to a desirable end state.
And what will a commission achieve ? Commissions are currently establisment code for looking like doing something while actually doing nothing.
I voted Leave because I dont trust UK politicians over Europe. I trust Juncker and co more because they say upfront what their aims are and are totally clear about it - its ever closer Union. UK MPs pretending it isnt while hoping to finesse us in to the Union without consulting the electorate has been the norm for the last 2 decades. Current shenanigans in the HoC simply highlight the truth of the matter.
A commission would establish a reified Brexit as opposed to 15 million distinct unicorns. It would establish what would be the consequences of Norway or Canada or WTO, with or without any of the pluses MPs like to add to their own favoured variants. JRM tells us Britain would be hundreds of billions of pounds better off. He may be right. Where is this nirvana and how do we get from here to there? That's the point of the commission. Otherwise we'd be voting on the basis of, as David Davis told us, Germany acting illegally in order to sign a deal with Britain.
I think thats a spot of unicorn farming on its own
You will struggle to find a neutral party to run a commission - minds are now made up and entrenched - and a mixed commission will have the same mexican standoff as Parliament.
Worse what actually are the issues ? Remainers are all about their wallets and Leavers are all about a more abstract sovereignty - which gets priority ?
That would be for the commission. We do not want neutrality: it should be stuffed with leavers. The problem with Brexit is the Leavers never, and still have not, settled around an agreed destination or route map. That is why I mentioned Davis wanting to deal directly with Germany without realising this would need Germany to act illegally. Those are the unicorns that must be slain. Look at where we are now: May's deal and no deal are both Brexits but clearly not the same.
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Precisely. If we go to No Deal the EU will very rapidly want to talk about a trade deal as they won't be getting a penny of their £39 billion (which we would still agree to pay as part of the negotiations but now have as leverege) plus the Irish border will be their problem rather than ours.
If our economy is tanking (clue: everyone thinks it will) we will be desperate and they will know it. We would have to agree to backstop, at least £39 billion and probably throw in Gibraltar for their troubles.
Mr Cameron says he is teaching his own children that Britain is “special” and should belong to international organisations in order to “shape the world’s future as well as its past”.
“I think the world I want my children to grow up in is [one] where there’s a big, bold, brave Britain at the heart of these institutions"
It's not just Brexiteers prone to exceptionalism.
We are exceptional, on a multitude of measures.
If you don't think Britain is exceptional you don't understand or believe in it.
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Precisely. If we go to No Deal the EU will very rapidly want to talk about a trade deal as they won't be getting a penny of their £39 billion (which we would still agree to pay as part of the negotiations but now have as leverege) plus the Irish border will be their problem rather than ours.
If our economy is tanking (clue: everyone thinks it will) we will be desperate and they will know it. We would have to agree to backstop, at least £39 billion and probably throw in Gibraltar for their troubles.
Indeed and if it isn't tanking then we won't.
So worst case we end up back where they're already proposing to put us (with the backstop etc) and best case we don't. Seems like it could be worth a punt.
That is why there must be a commission rather than hoping for a coherent view to emerge by chance. A general election might well produce a majority for one course or another but probably not a plausible path to a desirable end state.
And what will a commission achieve ? Commissions are currently establisment code for looking like doing something while actually doing nothing.
I voted Leave because I dont trust UK politicians over Europe. I trust Juncker and co more because they say upfront what their aims are and are totally clear about it - its ever closer Union. UK MPs pretending it isnt while hoping to finesse us in to the Union without consulting the electorate has been the norm for the last 2 decades. Current shenanigans in the HoC simply highlight the truth of the matter.
A commission would establish a reified Brexit as opposed to 15 million distinct unicorns. It would establish what would be the consequences of Norway or Canada or WTO, with or without any of the pluses MPs like to add to their own favoured variants. JRM tells us Britain would be hundreds of billions of pounds better off. He may be right. Where is this nirvana and how do we get from here to there? That's the point of the commission. Otherwise we'd be voting on the basis of, as David Davis told us, Germany acting illegally in order to sign a deal with Britain.
I think thats a spot of unicorn farming on its own
You will struggle to find a neutral party to run a commission - minds are now made up and entrenched - and a mixed commission will have the same mexican standoff as Parliament.
Worse what actually are the issues ? Remainers are all about their wallets and Leavers are all about a more abstract sovereignty - which gets priority ?
That would be for the commission. We do not want neutrality: it should be stuffed with leavers. The problem with Brexit is the Leavers never, and still have not, settled around an agreed destination or route map. That is why I mentioned Davis wanting to deal directly with Germany without realising this would need Germany to act illegally. Those are the unicorns that must be slain. Look at where we are now: May's deal and no deal are both Brexits but clearly not the same.
I'm sorry but that Germany claim is garbage. Germany is a major power within the EU and shapes the EU's business. Yes we wouldn't get a deal uniquely with Germany but getting Germany on side at the start would have made the negotiations go a lot smoother.
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Precisely. If we go to No Deal the EU will very rapidly want to talk about a trade deal as they won't be getting a penny of their £39 billion (which we would still agree to pay as part of the negotiations but now have as leverege) plus the Irish border will be their problem rather than ours.
If our economy is tanking (clue: everyone thinks it will) we will be desperate and they will know it. We would have to agree to backstop, at least £39 billion and probably throw in Gibraltar for their troubles.
Indeed and if it isn't tanking then we won't.
So worst case we end up back where they're already proposing to put us (with the backstop etc) and best case we don't. Seems like it could be worth a punt.
Except the worst case includes companies going bust.
Mr Cameron says he is teaching his own children that Britain is “special” and should belong to international organisations in order to “shape the world’s future as well as its past”.
“I think the world I want my children to grow up in is [one] where there’s a big, bold, brave Britain at the heart of these institutions"
It's not just Brexiteers prone to exceptionalism.
We are exceptional, on a multitude of measures.
If you don't think Britain is exceptional you don't understand or believe in it.
Also, if you accuse Britain of being more exceptionalist than other countries, you got yourself a lovely little paradox.
And this is the only reason that Theresa there-isn't-a-word-in-English-to-express-her-abjectness May is still polling ahead of each of Labour, Corbyn and the Conservatives. She is seen to be wading through their tide of shit. A tide into which they continue to defacate....
There is a residual sense of sympathy or pity for the Prime Minister but as has been noted downthread, the public mood seems to be shifting away from "it's everyone's fault" to the specific "it's the Conservative Government's fault" and we are 6 weeks away from a huge round of local elections where the Conservatives are defending 5,000 seats.
Yes, unless there is a Brexit deal that is moving along by the locals, then those poor councillors will be proxies for giving the MPs a kick up the jacksie. In turn, a dress rehearsal for the next General.
Well, except the WA would be meaningless and we'd go straight to the FTA (and a prolonged ratification process).
Ireland no doubt would feature again, but it'd be about a permanent solution that both the UK and Eire would be striving for as it'd be an improvement on the (then) status quo.
If our economy is tanking (clue: everyone thinks it will) we will be desperate and they will know it. We would have to agree to backstop, at least £39 billion and probably throw in Gibraltar for their troubles.
There would also be a really big issue with the legal mechanics. We'd no longer be working under the Article 50 provision of agreeing the withdrawal agreement with the Council of Ministers. Instead we'd be a third-party country having to set up an entirely new treaty with formal ratification by all of the 27, including all the complications of approval by the Walloons and all that stuff.
We really, really shouldn't want to go there. But we might.
And this is the only reason that Theresa there-isn't-a-word-in-English-to-express-her-abjectness May is still polling ahead of each of Labour, Corbyn and the Conservatives. She is seen to be wading through their tide of shit. A tide into which they continue to defacate....
There is a residual sense of sympathy or pity for the Prime Minister but as has been noted downthread, the public mood seems to be shifting away from "it's everyone's fault" to the specific "it's the Conservative Government's fault" and we are 6 weeks away from a huge round of local elections where the Conservatives are defending 5,000 seats.
Of course an approaching election will crystallize annoyance into a desire to kick someone, and the government will always take precedence fir that kicking when everyone is an idiot. May 2 will be a bloodbath whatever happens
If our economy is tanking (clue: everyone thinks it will) we will be desperate and they will know it. We would have to agree to backstop, at least £39 billion and probably throw in Gibraltar for their troubles.
There would also be a really big issue with the legal mechanics. We'd no longer be working under the Article 50 provision of agreeing the withdrawal agreement with the Council of Ministers. Instead we'd be a third-party country having to set up an entirely new treaty with formal ratification by all of the 27, including all the complications of approval by the Walloons and all that stuff.
We really, really shouldn't want to go there. But we might.
That's going to be true of any trade deal anyway. So we will end up there anyway.
She isn't, but most of the ERGParty to whom this most applies won't believe it applies to them personally.
FTFY. Everyone will believe it applies to someone else. To ERGers it will be the Remainers fault, to loyalists it will be the ERGers fault. Nobody is going to look in the mirror and say "I'm the problem here".
And @bigjohnowls says Corbyn cannot be blamed in any way.
It does indicate that opposition to a second referendum in labour mps is much larger than perceived
It doesn’t have anything to do with a 2nd ref. If Labour want a GE and a renegotiation as per their mythical policy, a long extension is required.
They are facilitating no deal!!!
Its like Jezza isn't very pro-EU and thinks the only way he can enact his socialist utopia is after a no-deal crash out.
Shit Tory BREXIT or Shit Tory crash out!!
On that, I have to agree with your analysis Mr. Owls.
Imagine where your favoured party would be if you had a decent leader. Blair or even Brown would have been destroying the government if either were LoTO. They would have a 20 point lead in the polls. Where is Mr Thicko though? He can't even convince the electorate that he is a better potential PM than Theresa May FFS!! It would be laughable were it not so tragic for the country.
They wouldn't, because it isn't the 1990s any more.
They'd have a lead, sure, but it'd be more like a 43-44% to 35-36% one.
If our economy is tanking (clue: everyone thinks it will) we will be desperate and they will know it. We would have to agree to backstop, at least £39 billion and probably throw in Gibraltar for their troubles.
There would also be a really big issue with the legal mechanics. We'd no longer be working under the Article 50 provision of agreeing the withdrawal agreement with the Council of Ministers. Instead we'd be a third-party country having to set up an entirely new treaty with formal ratification by all of the 27, including all the complications of approval by the Walloons and all that stuff.
We really, really shouldn't want to go there. But we might.
Whether we exit under A50 or not the trade talks are all by unanimity with all the veto issues you mention. It is only the WA that is by QMV.
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Precisely. If we go to No Deal the EU will very rapidly want to talk about a trade deal as they won't be getting a penny of their £39 billion (which we would still agree to pay as part of the negotiations but now have as leverege) plus the Irish border will be their problem rather than ours.
No because crashing out with no deal will not magically remove our commitments on the £39 billion.
The EU has learnt nothing from the process either.
Wouldn't it be more true to say that the EU has learnt different lessons from the ones you wanted it to?
No, it's reinforced the EU's existing prejudices rather than challenged them.
It believes it has, and is, making an example of the UK, teaching it a lesson, and discouraging others to its benefit as a whole.
I see zero evidence it's done any reflection on why the UK voted to Leave, and how the EU might need to respond to avoid such calamity in future, other than the reflexive dogmatic response of More Europe.
If our economy is tanking (clue: everyone thinks it will) we will be desperate and they will know it. We would have to agree to backstop, at least £39 billion and probably throw in Gibraltar for their troubles.
There would also be a really big issue with the legal mechanics. We'd no longer be working under the Article 50 provision of agreeing the withdrawal agreement with the Council of Ministers. Instead we'd be a third-party country having to set up an entirely new treaty with formal ratification by all of the 27, including all the complications of approval by the Walloons and all that stuff.
We really, really shouldn't want to go there. But we might.
That's going to be true of any trade deal anyway. So we will end up there anyway.
No, there's a huge difference. If we leave with the withdrawal deal, we have two years or more to sort out the trade agreement with little disruption in the meantime. If we crash out in chaos, with businesses going bust, sheep being slaughtered in the Welsh hills, fishermen unable to land their catches in the EU, confusion and delays at the ports, and no doubt lots of other disasters which haven't yet even been fully recognised, we'll be desperately trying to scrabble back some of the lost ground from an incredibly weak position. It's hard to imagine a more disastrous self-inflicted wound.
She isn't, but most of the ERGParty to whom this most applies won't believe it applies to them personally.
FTFY. Everyone will believe it applies to someone else. To ERGers it will be the Remainers fault, to loyalists it will be the ERGers fault. Nobody is going to look in the mirror and say "I'm the problem here".
No-one will say "I'm the problem here" but it definitively applies to the ERG hardcore of c.70-90 MPs, the old bastards, and the dozen or so (sometimes less) of the New Bastards. The behaviour of the DUP isn't impressive, but nor is it surprising and they are a separate party.
And this is the only reason that Theresa there-isn't-a-word-in-English-to-express-her-abjectness May is still polling ahead of each of Labour, Corbyn and the Conservatives. She is seen to be wading through their tide of shit. A tide into which they continue to defacate....
There is a residual sense of sympathy or pity for the Prime Minister but as has been noted downthread, the public mood seems to be shifting away from "it's everyone's fault" to the specific "it's the Conservative Government's fault" and we are 6 weeks away from a huge round of local elections where the Conservatives are defending 5,000 seats.
Of course an approaching election will crystallize annoyance into a desire to kick someone, and the government will always take precedence fir that kicking when everyone is an idiot. May 2 will be a bloodbath whatever happens
The Conservatives are bound to lose seats, as they were 6% ahead, in 2015, when they were last contested. However, losses will be limited by the fact that most seats being contested will be in Leave-voting districts.
That is why there must be a commission rather than hoping for a coherent view to emerge by chance. A general election might well produce a majority for one course or another but probably not a plausible path to a desirable end state.
And what will a commission achieve ? Commissions are currently establisment code for looking like doing something while actually doing nothing.
I voted Leave because I dont trust UK politicians over Europe. I trust Juncker and co more because they say upfront what their aims are and are totally clear about it - its ever closer Union. UK MPs pretending it isnt while hoping to finesse us in to the Union without consulting the electorate has been the norm for the last 2 decades. Current shenanigans in the HoC simply highlight the truth of the matter.
A commission would establish a reified Brexit as opposed to 15 million distinct unicorns. It would establish what would be the consequences of Norway or Canada or WTO, with or without any of the pluses MPs like to add to their own favoured variants. JRM tells us Britain would be hundreds of billions of pounds better off. He may be right. Where is this nirvana and how do we get from here to there? That's the point of the commission. Otherwise we'd be voting on the basis of, as David Davis told us, Germany acting illegally in order to sign a deal with Britain.
I think thats a spot of unicorn farming on its own
You will struggle to find a neutral party to run a commission - minds are now made up and entrenched - and a mixed commission will have the same mexican standoff as Parliament.
Worse what actually are the issues ? Remainers are all about their wallets and Leavers are all about a more abstract sovereignty - which gets priority ?
That would be for the commission. We do not want neutrality: it should be stuffed with leavers. The problem with Brexit is the Leavers never, and still have not, settled around an agreed destination or route map. That is why I mentioned Davis wanting to deal directly with Germany without realising this would need Germany to act illegally. Those are the unicorns that must be slain. Look at where we are now: May's deal and no deal are both Brexits but clearly not the same.
I'm sorry but that Germany claim is garbage. Germany is a major power within the EU and shapes the EU's business. Yes we wouldn't get a deal uniquely with Germany but getting Germany on side at the start would have made the negotiations go a lot smoother.
Since Davis was the Secretary of State, we can see how things worked out. Germany declined to act illegally or get on side at the start.
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Precisely. If we go to No Deal the EU will very rapidly want to talk about a trade deal as they won't be getting a penny of their £39 billion (which we would still agree to pay as part of the negotiations but now have as leverege) plus the Irish border will be their problem rather than ours.
No because crashing out with no deal will not magically remove our commitments on the £39 billion.
Yes it will. The EU will have no way to compel us to pay that money if there's no agreement. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. They'll still morally think we owe them it, but legally it will take an agreement - a deal if you will - to get that money from us.
Mr Cameron says he is teaching his own children that Britain is “special” and should belong to international organisations in order to “shape the world’s future as well as its past”.
“I think the world I want my children to grow up in is [one] where there’s a big, bold, brave Britain at the heart of these institutions"
It's not just Brexiteers prone to exceptionalism.
We are exceptional, on a multitude of measures.
If you don't think Britain is exceptional you don't understand or believe in it.
Also, if you accuse Britain of being more exceptionalist than other countries, you got yourself a lovely little paradox.
I don't think it's delusional to point out that Britain occupies a place of more significance than a "typical" country of 65 million people in the world, and packs more punch than Italy and still more than France whether inside or outside the EU. I'd say Germany is clearly the strongest and most economically influential in the EU but that doesn't mean it is on the world stage.
That doesn't mean the UK is still a superpower, on the equivalent level with the USA or China, where I grant you some still believe we have a right to be - that ended with the Empire - but we are still more than just a regional European player.
The EU has learnt nothing from the process either.
Wouldn't it be more true to say that the EU has learnt different lessons from the ones you wanted it to?
No, it's reinforced the EU's existing prejudices rather than challenged them.
It believes it has, and is, making an example of the UK, teaching it a lesson, and discouraging others to its benefit as a whole.
I see zero evidence it's done any reflection on why the UK voted to Leave, and how the EU might need to respond to avoid such calamity in future, other than the reflexive dogmatic response of More Europe.
Like our Parliamentarians the EU is a Poker player going All In.
Worst case scenario for EU zealots is the UK exits without a deal and it proves not only not to be a disaster but to be a success instead. That would really put a rocket booster under sceptics across the continent. If we exit without a deal the EU kind of needs us to fail.
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Precisely. If we go to No Deal the EU will very rapidly want to talk about a trade deal as they won't be getting a penny of their £39 billion (which we would still agree to pay as part of the negotiations but now have as leverege) plus the Irish border will be their problem rather than ours.
If our economy is tanking (clue: everyone thinks it will) we will be desperate and they will know it. We would have to agree to backstop, at least £39 billion and probably throw in Gibraltar for their troubles.
and dont forget the four horsemen leaping from the Yellowstone caldera as soon as we leave
The EU has learnt nothing from the process either.
Wouldn't it be more true to say that the EU has learnt different lessons from the ones you wanted it to?
No, it's reinforced the EU's existing prejudices rather than challenged them.
It believes it has, and is, making an example of the UK, teaching it a lesson, and discouraging others to its benefit as a whole.
I see zero evidence it's done any reflection on why the UK voted to Leave, and how the EU might need to respond to avoid such calamity in future, other than the reflexive dogmatic response of More Europe.
It's possible to reflect on why the UK voted to leave and come to the conclusion that indulging our political class with opt-outs and special treatment, and helping them dissemble about the EU to their voters was a large part of the problem.
And this is the only reason that Theresa there-isn't-a-word-in-English-to-express-her-abjectness May is still polling ahead of each of Labour, Corbyn and the Conservatives. She is seen to be wading through their tide of shit. A tide into which they continue to defacate....
There is a residual sense of sympathy or pity for the Prime Minister but as has been noted downthread, the public mood seems to be shifting away from "it's everyone's fault" to the specific "it's the Conservative Government's fault" and we are 6 weeks away from a huge round of local elections where the Conservatives are defending 5,000 seats.
Of course an approaching election will crystallize annoyance into a desire to kick someone, and the government will always take precedence fir that kicking when everyone is an idiot. May 2 will be a bloodbath whatever happens
The Conservatives are bound to lose seats, as they were 6% ahead, in 2015, when they were last contested. However, losses will be limited by the fact that most seats being contested will be in Leave-voting districts.
Sure but if we are 'in delay' will there not be a mass vote against as s 'fail and this is what you get' thing?
I'm sorry but that Germany claim is garbage. Germany is a major power within the EU and shapes the EU's business. Yes we wouldn't get a deal uniquely with Germany but getting Germany on side at the start would have made the negotiations go a lot smoother.
Since Davis was the Secretary of State, we can see how things worked out. Germany declined to act illegally or get on side at the start.
He was Secretary of State but he was also powerless and impotent. May called the shots and undermined him from the start.
Getting Germany on side would not have been illegal.
I think thats a spot of unicorn farming on its own
You will struggle to find a neutral party to run a commission - minds are now made up and entrenched - and a mixed commission will have the same mexican standoff as Parliament.
Worse what actually are the issues ? Remainers are all about their wallets and Leavers are all about a more abstract sovereignty - which gets priority ?
It would be interesting for a commission to have enumerated those distinctions, though. Here are the ways in which we are defining our "sovereignty", and the ways in which they could be constrained pre-post Brexit, these are the ways in which we are defining economic impact, and the range of views... Rather than the vague mudslinging in the press. We could have spent a few years doing that, then put the proposals to a referendum.
But that is not what happened.
yes
the time for a commission was pre the referendum but Cameron and Osborne explicitly ruled that out along with any preparation for what a leave vote might mean
Quite. As we gaze with horror at the stagnant pond life of the current parliament, we should never forget their evolutionary ancestors.
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Precisely. If we go to No Deal the EU will very rapidly want to talk about a trade deal as they won't be getting a penny of their £39 billion (which we would still agree to pay as part of the negotiations but now have as leverege) plus the Irish border will be their problem rather than ours.
No because crashing out with no deal will not magically remove our commitments on the £39 billion.
Yes it will. The EU will have no way to compel us to pay that money if there's no agreement. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. They'll still morally think we owe them it, but legally it will take an agreement - a deal if you will - to get that money from us.
Those represent our existing commitments, though. If we start reneging on our international commitments, that's going to make future deal making "interesting".
I utterly fail to see how an extention of a few months solves anything at all...what changes??
Nothing, it's a stupid position and I wouldn't be surprised if the Commission came back and told the PM to fuck off and come back with something realistic. A short extension only makes sense if the WA makes it through Parliament.
I liked this: In the early 1990s the government used to boast that the country was “punching above its weight”. This can sound quite clever until you get into a real fight, and someone punches you back.
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****
Why on Earth should the hardliners back the EU's stated wish? The EU's stated wish is for us not to leave. The hardliners stated wish is for us to leave and that's what the public voted for. Nor do the hardliners want the EU to "gain" anything.
If Parliament wants to prevent no deal there is a very easy and quick option waiting to be ratified. If not we can go to no deal quite quickly. Either way there's nothing to gain from a long delay.
Comments
Corbyn gives the ERG what they want: No Deal and chaos. He gets what he wants: Brexit, but Tories to blame.
May gets to oppose Brexit from the Labour front bench, and also has a rest for a week.
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/1108307210478800897
In reality and as pointed out by John Curtice yesterday People have not really changed your mind, even if you think that polls that predicted a remain win are now accurately Leavers.
We only had to wipe our arses with dock leaves for 12 weeks?
It wouldn't surprise me at all if growth increases following a No Deal Brexit. Or any other scenario. It is the uncertainty that is putting so much on hold at the minute.
=======
New words by Sunil, original "Bedsitter" music by Almond & Ball.
Friday morning going slow
I'm watching the election show
Lots of Ladbrokes slips on the floor
Memories of the night before
Out knocking up and having fun
Now I've stopped reading The Sun
Waiting for the results to show
But why I voted no one knows
Voting, polling
Blogging, trolling
And now I'm all alone
In Brexit Land
My only home
I think it's time to write a thread
To vent the bemusement in my head
Spent my money on online bookies
Got nowt here but all the cookies
Clean my suit and my rosette
Election promises to forget
Start campaigning all over again
Kid myself I'm having fun
Voting, polling
Blogging, trolling
And now I'm all alone
In Brexit Land
My only home
Looking out from my worldview
I've really nothing else to do
Seems like I have started fretting
Let's read Political Betting
Forget The Mirror and The Times
The battle bus with such great lines
Look around and I can see
A thousand punters just like me
Voting, polling
Blogging, trolling
And now I'm all alone
In Brexit Land
My only home
Voting, polling
Blogging, trolling
And now I'm all alone
In Brexit Land
My only home
(I'm waiting for Brexit
Or am I wasting time)
If politicians had been honest with the public about the issues, and the EU, we would not be in this mess right now.
Imagine where your favoured party would be if you had a decent leader. Blair or even Brown would have been destroying the government if either were LoTO. They would have a 20 point lead in the polls. Where is Mr Thicko though? He can't even convince the electorate that he is a better potential PM than Theresa May FFS!! It would be laughable were it not so tragic for the country.
I suppose the key with the expenses is that this is something that was 100% normalized, that, when the public found out, was a total catastrophe for all sides. The public were wholly, if only peripherally, aware of the corruption inherent in big donors.
Surely nobody in the EU believes a word she says
You will struggle to find a neutral party to run a commission - minds are now made up and entrenched - and a mixed commission will have the same mexican standoff as Parliament.
Worse what actually are the issues ? Remainers are all about their wallets and Leavers are all about a more abstract sovereignty - which gets priority ?
By still having a 55-seat deficit behind the Tories?
That kind of "well"?
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****
So labour just want to damage the government rather than change anything...
Oh Jesus Christ....someone rescue us from this f**king nightmare...
“I think the world I want my children to grow up in is [one] where there’s a big, bold, brave Britain at the heart of these institutions"
It's not just Brexiteers prone to exceptionalism.
But that is not what happened.
If Parliament wants to prevent no deal there is a very easy and quick option waiting to be ratified. If not we can go to no deal quite quickly. Either way there's nothing to gain from a long delay.
That'll do it.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-eu-referendum-pollsters-wrong-opinion-predict-close
If you then want to start a rejoin the EU campaign then go ahead
the time for a commission was pre the referendum but Cameron and Osborne explicitly ruled that out along with any preparation for what a leave vote might mean
I have no sympathy for any crocodile tears coming from the SNP, LibDems and Labour who pretend to oppose no deal while rejecting the only deal the EU is willing to offer.
Though there is somewhat an irony in the SNP saying an independence referendum can be ignored or reversed.
But yes, it's Labour who are the cynical ones here.
We would have to agree to backstop, at least £39 billion and probably throw in Gibraltar for their troubles.
If you don't think Britain is exceptional you don't understand or believe in it.
So worst case we end up back where they're already proposing to put us (with the backstop etc) and best case we don't. Seems like it could be worth a punt.
And the EU having us even more over a barrel.
Ireland no doubt would feature again, but it'd be about a permanent solution that both the UK and Eire would be striving for as it'd be an improvement on the (then) status quo.
We really, really shouldn't want to go there. But we might.
May 2 will be a bloodbath whatever happens
They'd have a lead, sure, but it'd be more like a 43-44% to 35-36% one.
It believes it has, and is, making an example of the UK, teaching it a lesson, and discouraging others to its benefit as a whole.
I see zero evidence it's done any reflection on why the UK voted to Leave, and how the EU might need to respond to avoid such calamity in future, other than the reflexive dogmatic response of More Europe.
https://twitter.com/labourwhips/status/1108323802826575872
Every vote counts in a hung parliament.
Is this the point she has to offer to leave within weeks in order to get MV3 through next week?
That doesn't mean the UK is still a superpower, on the equivalent level with the USA or China, where I grant you some still believe we have a right to be - that ended with the Empire - but we are still more than just a regional European player.
Much more.
Worst case scenario for EU zealots is the UK exits without a deal and it proves not only not to be a disaster but to be a success instead. That would really put a rocket booster under sceptics across the continent. If we exit without a deal the EU kind of needs us to fail.
thats about it
He was Secretary of State but he was also powerless and impotent. May called the shots and undermined him from the start.
Getting Germany on side would not have been illegal.
The electorate are angry with both main parties if my Canvassing is anything to go by.
https://members.tortoisemedia.com/2019/03/20/gavin-williamson-and-defence/content.html?sig=UEhlwOM0W9jaTpl3DLdHebugBdZemTcKbr96uCCKmXw
I liked this:
In the early 1990s the government used to boast that the country was “punching above its weight”. This can sound quite clever until you get into a real fight, and someone punches you back.