"Britain may be about to learn what being a vassal state really means."
Bollocks.
Impeccable logic, as ever.
Disgusting talking down of Britain.
Britain is not a vassal state and that final sentence is hyperbole that totally fails to recognise what a vassal state actually means.
It would have been nice - and fundamentally more constructive - if you could have vociferously made that point when your fellow headbangers were bandying the phrase around. But you preferred to pander to their prejudices. The inactions of people like you are a central component of why Britain is currently in the mess that it is in.
Cyclefree is misrepresenting the reasons that many voted to leave the EU. Examples include the sclerotic nature of the EU, its appalling record of economic growth, unacceptable youth unemployment records across the Continent, the treatment of Greece and so on. There were many pro-Europeans who voted to leave because they are anti-_EU_ and the difference is more than pure semantics. Corporatism is even worse than in Washington and leads to far too much power in the hands of big business at the expense of SMEs and citizens. I could produce a lengthy list but the point is that there are many good reasons to remain and many legitimate reasons to leave. Now, one of the main reasons to leave is to be one step away from an organisation in a death spiral. Where I fundamentally disagree with Cyclefree is the view that monetary union has been a success. For the last ten years QE and political willpower have largely kept the Eurozone in a functioning state but QE is no longer effective and one more major knock will leave the Eurozone unsustainable. Options are: far greater centralisation that the German government and the union’s citizens will permit [centralisation as detailed by the French Finance Minister. Bruno Le Maire last quarter in admitting that the Eurozone is suffering from an existential crisis]; it has to go through a radical restructuring, limiting its membership and potentially leading to the disantling of the EU; a total collapse of the Eurozone with the inevitable consequence of a collapsed European Union as a whole. To pretend that monetary union has been a success is extremely premature. Cyclefree might in the end turn out to be right but the odds are against him.
Cyclefree is her. And the rest of your post is the same shopping list of Faragist wishful thinking.
Thank you Ms Cyclefree. Up to now I have only been a lurker, but your perceptive and realistic post has finally prompted me to comment.
It seems to me that the only way to attempt to resolve this sorry mess is to remove Theresa May from the negotiations. Whether that is by removing her as Conservative party leader, removing the Conservative party from office, or just by her acing to take a leave of absence (return of the throat infection?) I am not sure. At this stage whoever is in charge needs to be someone who can rise above the self-deceptions listed in the article above.
I don’t hold out much hope. I think we will end up exiting with no deal on March 29th because nobody can provide the statesmanship to broker a deal that can gain the support of enough people. Relying on the DUP is just wrong. The pork barrel negotiations with a party still linked to terrorism is unedifying.
Welcome. May I suggest, however, that your first post pays very little attention to the Parliamentary arithmetic? You cannot ignore the DUP when you need them for a majority (although May is so incompetent she tried). You cannot form a majority without the Tory party or the DUP. There is no majority for the Tory party in the HoC since May lost it in 2017. It is far from clear who this person capable of rising above self-deception might be and even less clear how they get elected Tory leader/PM.
Keep chipping in though. The more voices the better.
You can ignore the DUP if you look to build alliances and consensus with other parts of the Commons.
Unlikely that May (or any other likely Tory leader) would do so with a week left, having studiously avoided doing so for the last two years.
Hi Scott. Nice to meet you at The Festival again. How did it finish up for you?
If you followed Chris's tips, you had to wait a long time for a return on your investment, but he did nail the first two home in the Fred Winter. That was as good as it got for me. Only a decent return on Bristol de Mai saved me from a complete disaster, but it was all good fun and with luck we can do it all again next year. Maybe you'll even get to meet Marf! You must be wondering whether she really exists or is just my imaginary friend! I promise she does, and hope next year she can prove it to you.
Welcome aboard, Fairlieread and Brontosaurus - always good to have a wider spread of views here.
Very good article, but I think the EU is up for one more heave - they are exasperated with May (who isn't?) but not with the British as a whole. Essentially she's going all-in on a tweaked MV3 and they'll give her the chance to try that. It might just work. Will she then resign in ordere to let someone else conduct the next two years of negotiations? Of course not - she'll politely and firmly proceed to vacillate from day to day for the next 2 years.
Failing that, the obvious option is permanent customs union, which has a clear majority in Parliament plus complete acceptance by the EU plus the essence of a solution to the Nortern Ireland border. It'll get a majority on an indicative vote this week. Why hasn't it happened? (a) because it's Remain minus, so nobody is really keen and (b) Mrs May declines to consider it. Problem (b) will be resolved if MV3 fails - Bercow won't allow an MV4 and she will be forced out one way or another.
I'm not sure about this. Permanent customs union would lose May about 140MPs from her benches and the DUP for good, I concede she'd probably retain 170 or so Tory votes.
So, she'd then need 150+ votes from opposition votes for her (amended) WA and for that to stick whilst gets it through as law (remember: it needs a bill too).
Is there any sign Corbyn is prepared to whip for it? That the SNP and LDs will suck it up and play ball?
I'd expect those parties to abstain, and for Corbyn to play silly buggers. There'd be a chunk of Labour backbenchers and some TIGers who might dance, but they won't add up to 150+.
Welcome aboard, Fairlieread and Brontosaurus - always good to have a wider spread of views here.
Very good article, but I think the EU is up for one more heave - they are exasperated with May (who isn't?) but not with the British as a whole. Essentially she's going all-in on a tweaked MV3 and they'll give her the chance to try that. It might just work. Will she then resign in ordere to let someone else conduct the next two years of negotiations? Of course not - she'll politely and firmly proceed to vacillate from day to day for the next 2 years.
I rather wonder whether we are seeing a bit of a charade at the moment. It suits Mrs May not to ask for a long delay. If the EU were to insist on any delay being long, might she then offer another free vote? That manoeuvre might get her off a hook with her own party.
The deal has been rejected twice by Parliament, and the Speaker isn’t going to allow the same deal to be voted on again.
The PM wants a short extension, but it’s unsure why.
The same MPs that don’t want the deal, also don’t want to leave with no deal and don’t want to revoke A50.
I think my opinion is unchanged from earlier in the week, that Parliament is going to have to decide with a single vote either to leave with no deal or to revoke A50, with a general election to follow shortly afterwards, in order to hold those MPs accountable for their decision.
Thank you Ms Cyclefree. Up to now I have only been a lurker, but your perceptive and realistic post has finally prompted me to comment.
It seems to me that the only way to attempt to resolve this sorry mess is to remove Theresa May from the negotiations. Whether that is by removing her as Conservative party leader, removing the Conservative party from office, or just by her acing to take a leave of absence (return of the throat infection?) I am not sure. At this stage whoever is in charge needs to be someone who can rise above the self-deceptions listed in the article above.
I don’t hold out much hope. I think we will end up exiting with no deal on March 29th because nobody can provide the statesmanship to broker a deal that can gain the support of enough people. Relying on the DUP is just wrong. The pork barrel negotiations with a party still linked to terrorism is unedifying.
Welcome. May I suggest, however, that your first post pays very little attention to the Parliamentary arithmetic? You cannot ignore the DUP when you need them for a majority (although May is so incompetent she tried). You cannot form a majority without the Tory party or the DUP. There is no majority for the Tory party in the HoC since May lost it in 2017. It is far from clear who this person capable of rising above self-deception might be and even less clear how they get elected Tory leader/PM.
Keep chipping in though. The more voices the better.
You can ignore the DUP if you look to build alliances and consensus with other parts of the Commons.
Unlikely that May (or any other likely Tory leader) would do so with a week left, having studiously avoided doing so for the last two years.
Oh, I know that. May's priority has always been keeping the Tories together and herself in Number 10, not negotiating a Brexit deal most of the country can get behind. And now she has led us to a position where our immediate future - and possibly our long-term economic health and even viability as a country - is entirely in the hands of 27 foreign governments. It's quite the achievement.
"Britain may be about to learn what being a vassal state really means."
Bollocks.
Impeccable logic, as ever.
Disgusting talking down of Britain.
Britain is not a vassal state and that final sentence is hyperbole that totally fails to recognise what a vassal state actually means.
It would have been nice - and fundamentally more constructive - if you could have vociferously made that point when your fellow headbangers were bandying the phrase around. But you preferred to pander to their prejudices. The inactions of people like you are a central component of why Britain is currently in the mess that it is in.
I haven't been inactive at any point, and have been vociferously lobbying two friends of mine who are ERG MPs to the expense of my friendships.
And I'm not a "headbanger". I'd have thought you'd have enough respect for me to know that by now.
We aren't getting a short extension. What is May asking for? "I want a short extension to get my deal through. Yes I know its been massively defeated twice. Yes I know you aren't going to change it. Yes I know my coalition partner doesn't support it. Yes I know that a number of my cabinet and a significant number of backbenchers have pledged to continue to defeat it. Yes I know the speaker has ruled that we cannot even vote on it again. But trust me, it'll be ok. What do you mean no?"
They will offer us years of extension. Which the entire opposition bar the odd Labour Lexit loon will back. Which enough Tory MPs will back. It will pass. The question then for Theresa is what does she do? If she obeys the will of Parliament and lays out the SIs she will be removed as leader within days. If she refuses the will of parliament there will almost certainly be a confidence vote against the government, but with the ERG hugging her tight she'd win.
OK so we'd crash out with no deal. But she'd remain Tory leader having delivered the will of the people. She'd see a dozen or so MPs defect. But she would carry on. Or, pass the multi-year extension, get removed, and see her party angrily tear itself apart in recriminations as to why Brexit didn't happen.
She will resist until the end. No Deal.
I agree with a lot of this, but you also need to take acccount the remaining tory non-hard Brexiters in the party and in government, of whom there's still many. They are just as capable of removing May in the next week by resignations from the cabinet co-ordinated with MP defections.
If I was running EU, I would say - you can have a 2 year extension. You can cancel it at any time by either agreeing a deal or revoking - but we are not wasting any more time discussing things. And at end of 2 years that is it. You are out.
If I was running UK I would hold an immediate GE with the main purpose to evict the disruptive headbangers on both sides. Then schedule a referendum for 18 months time - take the first 12 months to properly agree a question - ie revoke or Deal (to be defined) - and then campaign for 6 months. The referendum result to be legally binding and so implemented without further debate.
Next...
The problem isn't the MPs, the "disruptive headbangers" are representative of large numbers of people. Any election is likely to get more of then, not less.
"Britain may be about to learn what being a vassal state really means."
Bollocks.
Impeccable logic, as ever.
Disgusting talking down of Britain.
Britain is not a vassal state and that final sentence is hyperbole that totally fails to recognise what a vassal state actually means.
And you fail to recognise that Cyclefree is merely repurposing an absurd piece of rhetoric which originated with the Brexit headbangers. Who apparently believe it.
Setting the rhetoric aside, who do you think is now calling the shots in the negotiation ?
The deal has been rejected twice by Parliament, and the Speaker isn’t going to allow the same deal to be voted on again.
The PM wants a short extension, but it’s unsure why.
The same MPs that don’t want the deal, also don’t want to leave with no deal and don’t want to revoke A50.
I think my opinion is unchanged from earlier in the week, that Parliament is going to have to decide with a single vote either to leave with no deal or to revoke A50, with a general election to follow shortly afterwards, in order to hold those MPs accountable for their decision.
Is May not intending to pursue the original strategy of running the clock down, but this time with no possibility of a further extension because we won't have participated in the European elections?
"Britain may be about to learn what being a vassal state really means."
Bollocks.
Impeccable logic, as ever.
Disgusting talking down of Britain.
Britain is not a vassal state and that final sentence is hyperbole that totally fails to recognise what a vassal state actually means.
It would have been nice - and fundamentally more constructive - if you could have vociferously made that point when your fellow headbangers were bandying the phrase around. But you preferred to pander to their prejudices. The inactions of people like you are a central component of why Britain is currently in the mess that it is in.
I haven't been inactive at any point, and have been vociferously lobbying two friends of mine who are ERG MPs to the expense of my friendships.
And I'm not a "headbanger". I'd have thought you'd have enough respect for me to know that by now.
I have no respect for the self-proclaimed "moderates" who have done nothing - less than nothing - to curb the Leavers who they consider hardliners until they eventually realised at the 11th hour that they were not their allies. They're just different extremists.
O/T I've done a new spreadsheet: it's the running totals from EU referendum night. Might be useful if there's a second one. I'll post a link if PBers are interested.
Cyclefree is misrepresenting the reasons that many voted to leave the EU. Examples include the sclerotic nature of the EU, its appalling record of economic growth, unacceptable youth unemployment records across the Continent, the treatment of Greece and so on. There were many pro-Europeans who voted to leave because they are anti-_EU_ and the difference is more than pure semantics. Corporatism is even worse than in Washington and leads to far too much power in the hands of big business at the expense of SMEs and citizens. I could produce a lengthy list but the point is that there are many good reasons to remain and many legitimate reasons to leave. Now, one of the main reasons to leave is to be one step away from an organisation in a death spiral. Where I fundamentally disagree with Cyclefree is the view that monetary union has been a success. For the last ten years QE and political willpower have largely kept the Eurozone in a functioning state but QE is no longer effective and one more major knock will leave the Eurozone unsustainable. Options are: far greater centralisation that the German government and the union’s citizens will permit [centralisation as detailed by the French Finance Minister. Bruno Le Maire last quarter in admitting that the Eurozone is suffering from an existential crisis]; it has to go through a radical restructuring, limiting its membership and potentially leading to the disantling of the EU; a total collapse of the Eurozone with the inevitable consequence of a collapsed European Union as a whole. To pretend that monetary union has been a success is extremely premature. Cyclefree might in the end turn out to be right but the odds are against him.
Cyclefree is her. And the rest of your post is the same shopping list of Faragist wishful thinking.
"Britain may be about to learn what being a vassal state really means."
Bollocks.
Bollocks in what particular sense?
Fact - at this moment in time the UK has no control over its future economic and security relationships with the EU, and thereby with the rest of the world. We are entirely dependent on the goodwill of 27 other nations, any of whom could deny our elected leader her principle objective.
“Siri - show me what a vassal state looks like.”
The UK is requesting an emergency (temporary) extension to an organisation it wishes to leave, which is no doubt exasperated by it. That is very different to a vassal state which is where a state is dictated to by its superiors.
Brexit means we do have more immediate control over trade, regulation and immigration within the UK, and it also means at the same time that we have less influence within a neighbouring bigger player of which we used to be a member of the same. Sometimes that'll work out in our favour, sometimes it won't, and that's the trade off.
It's not what a vassal state means. Such phrases are sheer journalistic hyperbole, and rather cliched ones at that. And i'm getting rather tired of them.
Excellent post, Ms Cyclefree. Rancour-free, well judged.
I think this, the penultimate paragraph is one which we should seriously think about: "But the real risk may well be that the EU no longer wants Britain back, that what it has seen of Britain – in close up – over the last two years and particularly over the last few months has saddened, angered and infuriated it so much, its patience has been so exhausted, that it would prefer to take the hit of a messy exit rather than accommodate Britain any more, other than on the EU’s own terms.'
We have the situation in which the only thing the British Government appears to agree upon, as representative of us, the people of the UK is that we want 'Out'.
Very well, go and be damned to you! You have resigned; we are therefore happy to act in the interest of our members. And that is the interests of all our members, including those very close to you.
Yet, sad to say, Tony Blair (last night on Newsnight) is right; the issues that led to Brexit are not unique to the UK and it would be in Europe's interests to face them as well.
Indeed. I'm not going to say the EU needs us more than we do them - that would be wrong - but they really do need us. We forced them to face awkward facts about their project that they much preferred to kick under the carpet, and when they overruled us over, say, Juncker, BSE and bank bailouts, time has usually proven them wrong.
Without us, I suspect they will be content to drift serenely from one avoidable mess to the next. Which will not be helpful for anyone.
France will vote to leave long before that happens
The whole thing has been totally polluted from the start by contrary views on whether "no deal" would be worse for the EU or the UK. And thinking that the prospect of that no deal is therefore a legitimate bargaining tactic in negotiation.
At every stage there has almost been no acknowledgement that whoever it is "worse" for, there should have been agreement from the start that it is bad for everyone and the priority should have been to put a framework in place to avoid it (and the EU are also to blame here, by refusing to discuss Brexit and the framework for negotiations before article 50 was triggered).
Hi Scott. Nice to meet you at The Festival again. How did it finish up for you?
If you followed Chris's tips, you had to wait a long time for a return on your investment, but he did nail the first two home in the Fred Winter. That was as good as it got for me.
Hi Peter
Yes, I faithfully followed all the hints from Chris on the day and left without a single winner, but I recovered on Thursday and Friday.
It seems to me that the only way to attempt to resolve this sorry mess is to remove Theresa May from the negotiations. Whether that is by removing her as Conservative party leader, removing the Conservative party from office, or just by her supporters acting to arrange for her to take a leave of absence (return of the throat infection?) I am not sure. At this stage whoever is in charge needs to be someone who can rise above the self-deceptions listed in the article above.
As there is no such person available, what difference would it make if May left? She is not the problem. MPs are the problem.
I repeat, they need to grow up.
I think suggesting May is not the problem is overstating it but replacing her is almost certainly not the solution, at least in the next 9 days.
Let me rephrase that. At this particular point in time, she is not the only or even the most significant problem. The issue is Parliament behaving like a bunch of spoiled two year olds.
It is not helpful to regard parliament or MPs as a block vote directed by a singular intelligence.
The trouble with Theresa May is not that she is a poor negotiator but that she is not even trying to negotiate. Not with the EU, with Labour or her own backbenchers. There is no reaching out, no quid pro quo, just pleading to pass her deal because she knows it is the best possible deal which necessarily means any alternative is worse and therefore any concession will make things worse. so there can and must be no backsliding. There is not even the awareness that the abyss of no deal she points out as the risk her opponents run is also the risk she runs, let alone that some opponents might actually prefer that outcome.
What do we collectively think of Gina Miller’s lawyer, suggesting that revoking A50 requires primary legislation?
If that’s true, it’s probably already too late to start the process. It would also mean that a few Tory MPs could engineer No Deal by sacrificing their own careers and crossing the floor to vote no confidence in the government, paralysing Parliament for up to a fortnight as the search happens for a new PM.
"Britain may be about to learn what being a vassal state really means."
Bollocks.
Impeccable logic, as ever.
Disgusting talking down of Britain.
Britain is not a vassal state and that final sentence is hyperbole that totally fails to recognise what a vassal state actually means.
It would have been nice - and fundamentally more constructive - if you could have vociferously made that point when your fellow headbangers were bandying the phrase around. But you preferred to pander to their prejudices. The inactions of people like you are a central component of why Britain is currently in the mess that it is in.
I haven't been inactive at any point, and have been vociferously lobbying two friends of mine who are ERG MPs to the expense of my friendships.
And I'm not a "headbanger". I'd have thought you'd have enough respect for me to know that by now.
I have no respect for the self-proclaimed "moderates" who have done nothing - less than nothing - to curb the Leavers who they consider hardliners until they eventually realised at the 11th hour that they were not their allies. They're just different extremists.
Humour me: how do you expect to win others over to your way of thinking, and make progress, if you have no forgiveness or sympathy for those who eventually realise you might have a point? Ironically enough, ruling out forever reengaging with those who happened to vociferously disagree with you at a point in time in the past over a matter which you considered to be of crucial importance makes you an extremist. And not very charitable or christian either.
Despite what you might be about to say in response, on this public site, I just don't think you're that fatalistic. I have a memory of your posting and character on here that goes back years, and that isn't you.
Thank you, Cyclefree, for another excellent piece.
Will the Government do the sensible thing....any sensible thing? The most sensible thing would be to follow the advice of that beacon of common sense, Kenneth Clarke, and suspend Brexit for five years during which time Leavers could put together a comprehensive and workable plan for exiting the EU. This plan would then be put to the voters in a referendum on the basis that this time they really would know what they are voting for, and it would actually be operable.
The chances of this happening are of course nil. The chances of what you are suggestion are better than nil, but not by much.
I have no idea what happens next. I agree with Alistair Meeks (of this Parish) that from where we are now, there are no good outcomes. I fear the worst.
You fear the worst because this is an ultra-panicky website that makes everyone else panic through reading and commenting on it. There are choices that carry different balances of positives and negatives, but we will be fine, regardless. We really will.
I'm warming to the idea of a 2nd ratification referendum to endorse or reject this, just to bring it to a head/end, as I don't expect a GE to be decisive, there would be a majority for one, and our MPs couldn't vote to find a way out of a paper bag.
It would need to be on near identical conditions to the last one with the same electorate to ensure it was perceived as fair.
Nobody will be more pleased than me if you are right and I am wrong, Casino.
Thank you, Cyclefree, for another excellent piece.
Will the Government do the sensible thing....any sensible thing? The most sensible thing would be to follow the advice of that beacon of common sense, Kenneth Clarke, and suspend Brexit for five years during which time Leavers could put together a comprehensive and workable plan for exiting the EU. This plan would then be put to the voters in a referendum on the basis that this time they really would know what they are voting for, and it would actually be operable.
The chances of this happening are of course nil. The chances of what you are suggestion are better than nil, but not by much.
I have no idea what happens next. I agree with Alistair Meeks (of this Parish) that from where we are now, there are no good outcomes. I fear the worst.
You fear the worst because this is an ultra-panicky website that makes everyone else panic through reading and commenting on it. There are choices that carry different balances of positives and negatives, but we will be fine, regardless. We really will.
I'm warming to the idea of a 2nd ratification referendum to endorse or reject this, just to bring it to a head/end, as I don't expect a GE to be decisive, there would be a majority for one, and our MPs couldn't vote to find a way out of a paper bag.
It would need to be on near identical conditions to the last one with the same electorate to ensure it was perceived as fair.
Nobody will be more pleased than me if you are right and I am wrong, Casino.
Nonsense. This is politicalbetting.
If one of is right, we will come on here with a *buffs nails* and pointing out who said it first.
If we get it wrong, we'll keep our heads down for a bit and try and change the subject ;-)
Hi Scott. Nice to meet you at The Festival again. How did it finish up for you?
If you followed Chris's tips, you had to wait a long time for a return on your investment, but he did nail the first two home in the Fred Winter. That was as good as it got for me.
Hi Peter
Yes, I faithfully followed all the hints from Chris on the day and left without a single winner, but I recovered on Thursday and Friday.
A good week overall.
Cheers.
Sorry you missed my antepost tip on the going. Subsequent events proved weather forecasts are easier to interpret than the form book.
O/T I've done a new spreadsheet: it's the running totals from EU referendum night. Might be useful if there's a second one. I'll post a link if PBers are interested.
The deal has been rejected twice by Parliament, and the Speaker isn’t going to allow the same deal to be voted on again.
The PM wants a short extension, but it’s unsure why.
The same MPs that don’t want the deal, also don’t want to leave with no deal and don’t want to revoke A50.
I think my opinion is unchanged from earlier in the week, that Parliament is going to have to decide with a single vote either to leave with no deal or to revoke A50, with a general election to follow shortly afterwards, in order to hold those MPs accountable for their decision.
Is May not intending to pursue the original strategy of running the clock down, but this time with no possibility of a further extension because we won't have participated in the European elections?
The EU elections are the big stumbling block. If we are to participate in them we need to pass primary legislation first, so in practice we have only two or three weeks past 29th March to agree with the EU on the plan forward - whether that’s deal, no deal or revoke A50 has to be known by that date, there’s no chance whatsoever the EU will countenance the possibility of us remaining past 30th June not having held the elections. If we go with the deal, we will need to have formally ratified the Treaty - such that we can no longer revoke A50 - before the middle of April.
Thank you, Cyclefree, for another excellent piece.
Will the Government do the sensible thing....any sensible thing? The most sensible thing would be to follow the advice of that beacon of common sense, Kenneth Clarke, and suspend Brexit for five years during which time Leavers could put together a comprehensive and workable plan for exiting the EU. This plan would then be put to the voters in a referendum on the basis that this time they really would know what they are voting for, and it would actually be operable.
The chances of this happening are of course nil. The chances of what you are suggestion are better than nil, but not by much.
I have no idea what happens next. I agree with Alistair Meeks (of this Parish) that from where we are now, there are no good outcomes. I fear the worst.
You fear the worst because this is an ultra-panicky website that makes everyone else panic through reading and commenting on it. There are choices that carry different balances of positives and negatives, but we will be fine, regardless. We really will.
I'm warming to the idea of a 2nd ratification referendum to endorse or reject this, just to bring it to a head/end, as I don't expect a GE to be decisive, there would be a majority for one, and our MPs couldn't vote to find a way out of a paper bag.
It would need to be on near identical conditions to the last one with the same electorate to ensure it was perceived as fair.
Nobody will be more pleased than me if you are right and I am wrong, Casino.
Nonsense. This is politicalbetting.
If one of is right, we will come on here with a *buffs nails* and pointing out who said it first.
If we get it wrong, we'll keep our heads down for a bit and try and change the subject ;-)
Lol! No, in fairness to our fellow posters I have to say the level of discourse on here is way in advance of what you find on the subject generally. Some even change their minds, and admit their mistakes! Personally I'm aching to do so on Brexit, but we'll see - especially if it is No Deal.
There is much in the thread header that I agree with. The dishonesty, self delusion and general incompetence of our political class did not start with May, even if the current Parliament has moved it onto a new level.
Where I slightly disagree with the tone and attitude is that the UK has by no means cornered the market in political stupidity and self delusion. There has been plenty of that on the EU side of the fence as well. This is not good news because it means that we cannot expect the EU to act in a way which we consider self evidently in their interests (German car makers anyone?). They are more than capable of matching our delusions despite the heroic efforts of Westminster.
A lot of sense here.
We are where we are because no-one calculated that the Irish would select someone like Varadker as leader. He has spent the entire Brexit negotiations flicking "V"s at the British position. This obviously appeals to the Dublin intelligensia, a group every bit as self cocooned as the London remainer set.
One of the few predictions which is likely to be certainish is that V will not survive his first encounter with the Irish electorate - however that will be too late for the here and now.
It is no surprise that you cannot give bull bobby calves away in Ireland at the moment. What a genius V is.
O/T I've done a new spreadsheet: it's the running totals from EU referendum night. Might be useful if there's a second one. I'll post a link if PBers are interested.
Err, yes please!
On the basis that the first one made me about a grand and a half on referendum night, if we ever meet you can be assured of not having to buy your own beers!
Hi Scott. Nice to meet you at The Festival again. How did it finish up for you?
If you followed Chris's tips, you had to wait a long time for a return on your investment, but he did nail the first two home in the Fred Winter. That was as good as it got for me.
Hi Peter
Yes, I faithfully followed all the hints from Chris on the day and left without a single winner, but I recovered on Thursday and Friday.
A good week overall.
Cheers.
Sorry you missed my antepost tip on the going. Subsequent events proved weather forecasts are easier to interpret than the form book.
Hmmm, maybe, but I live five miles from the course now and can tell you the area has it's own microclimate. This is my advice to you not to repeat that wager too heavily in future!
A long extension would be downright reckless for jobs though.
Yes, it’s the uncertainty that’s the problem. Those in charge need to pick an option and deal with the economic and political consequences of it. Kicking the can just makes all options worse.
What do we collectively think of Gina Miller’s lawyer, suggesting that revoking A50 requires primary legislation?
If that’s true, it’s probably already too late to start the process. It would also mean that a few Tory MPs could engineer No Deal by sacrificing their own careers and crossing the floor to vote no confidence in the government, paralysing Parliament for up to a fortnight as the search happens for a new PM.
What practical consequence does this lawyer's (Lord Pannick's) opinion have? He is not the Attorney General. If the Prime Minister were minded to seek revocation without primary legislation, is there a legal path to stop her before it is granted? I do not know. I'd have thought Pannick's most likely impact is to give Theresa May political cover for not seeking revocation, a decision already made.
The deal has been rejected twice by Parliament, and the Speaker isn’t going to allow the same deal to be voted on again.
The PM wants a short extension, but it’s unsure why.
The same MPs that don’t want the deal, also don’t want to leave with no deal and don’t want to revoke A50.
I think my opinion is unchanged from earlier in the week, that Parliament is going to have to decide with a single vote either to leave with no deal or to revoke A50, with a general election to follow shortly afterwards, in order to hold those MPs accountable for their decision.
Is May not intending to pursue the original strategy of running the clock down, but this time with no possibility of a further extension because we won't have participated in the European elections?
The EU elections are the big stumbling block. If we are to participate in them we need to pass primary legislation first, so in practice we have only two or three weeks past 29th March to agree with the EU on the plan forward - whether that’s deal, no deal or revoke A50 has to be known by that date, there’s no chance whatsoever the EU will countenance the possibility of us remaining past 30th June not having held the elections. If we go with the deal, we will need to have formally ratified the Treaty - such that we can no longer revoke A50 - before the middle of April.
The upcoming EU Budget is a stumbling block too. The EUrocrats are mortified at the idea that we are involved in the approval process, whilst still trying to slide out the door marked EXIT. They might envisage the idea of a newly elected PM Boris Johnson, now with a majority Govt., going along to Budget planning and asking "You want HOW much? To do WHAT?" He'd have a ball.....
What do we collectively think of Gina Miller’s lawyer, suggesting that revoking A50 requires primary legislation?
If that’s true, it’s probably already too late to start the process. It would also mean that a few Tory MPs could engineer No Deal by sacrificing their own careers and crossing the floor to vote no confidence in the government, paralysing Parliament for up to a fortnight as the search happens for a new PM.
What practical consequence does this lawyer's (Lord Pannick's) opinion have? He is not the Attorney General. If the Prime Minister were minded to seek revocation without primary legislation, is there a legal path to stop her before it is granted? I do not know. I'd have thought Pannick's most likely impact is to give Theresa May political cover for not seeking revocation, a decision already made.
I don’t know the answer to that one, as I don’t think any of us do. What I would imagine is that someone wishing a different outcome than ‘Revoke A50’ could lay a court case in the coming days, with the intention of injuncting the PM from serving a revocation notice on the basis that she has no authority to do so.
O/T I've done a new spreadsheet: it's the running totals from EU referendum night. Might be useful if there's a second one. I'll post a link if PBers are interested.
Hi Scott. Nice to meet you at The Festival again. How did it finish up for you?
If you followed Chris's tips, you had to wait a long time for a return on your investment, but he did nail the first two home in the Fred Winter. That was as good as it got for me.
Hi Peter
Yes, I faithfully followed all the hints from Chris on the day and left without a single winner, but I recovered on Thursday and Friday.
A good week overall.
Cheers.
He thought Band Of Outlaws was strong but he doesn't like giving short-priced favorites which may have put you off. He did mention the second though - Coko Beach - so maybe drink less Guinness next time? ;-)
He is a professional and always worth listening too but he almost invariably bets at double-figure prices, so it can be a long wait between successes.
A devout Catholic and mother of five has been asked to attend a police interview after being accused of using the wrong pronoun to describe a transgender girl.
Caroline Farrow was contacted by officers from the Surrey force to inform her they were investigating an allegation that she had made transphobic comments on Twitter.
Mrs Farrow is being investigated for a possible hate crime under the malicious communication act, an offence that carries a maximum two-year prison sentence.
They much prefer to sit on their fat arses in the warm scoffing doughnuts whilst surfing , rather than go handle real crimes. Much easier to frighten and hassle a law abiding citizen than have to go out in the cold and chase criminals.
There is much in the thread header that I agree with. The dishonesty, self delusion and general incompetence of our political class did not start with May, even if the current Parliament has moved it onto a new level.
Where I slightly disagree with the tone and attitude is that the UK has by no means cornered the market in political stupidity and self delusion. There has been plenty of that on the EU side of the fence as well. This is not good news because it means that we cannot expect the EU to act in a way which we consider self evidently in their interests (German car makers anyone?). They are more than capable of matching our delusions despite the heroic efforts of Westminster.
A lot of sense here.
We are where we are because no-one calculated that the Irish would select someone like Varadker as leader. He has spent the entire Brexit negotiations flicking "V"s at the British position. This obviously appeals to the Dublin intelligensia, a group every bit as self cocooned as the London remainer set.
One of the few predictions which is likely to be certainish is that V will not survive his first encounter with the Irish electorate - however that will be too late for the here and now.
It is no surprise that you cannot give bull bobby calves away in Ireland at the moment. What a genius V is.
I still find it astonishing that the one Country most agree will be at least as badly hit by nodeal Brexit asthe UK, have managed to get themselves in the position where they are the main stumbling block to preventing it occurring (with honourable mention to British MPs). Maybe the Irish are more like the British than they care to admit...
Remainers have to mobilise and get a strategy. The strategy has to lead to reversing the Referendum. No ifs no buts....We have to be as single minded and ruthless as the Leavers have been for the last 42 years.
48%-at least-don't want it and there's no reason why we should allow ourselves to go to hell in a handcart because three years ago the stupid half of the country were conned into voting for it by the drip feed of the right wing press.
We should start with the biggest advertising campaign in British history. It should be relentless. There are no restrictions on pro EU advertising now. We need a spend equivalent to the 42 years editorialising in the right wing press. We're talking billions....
"Britain may be about to learn what being a vassal state really means."
Bollocks.
Bollocks in what particular sense?
Fact - at this moment in time the UK has no control over its future economic and security relationships with the EU, and thereby with the rest of the world. We are entirely dependent on the goodwill of 27 other nations, any of whom could deny our elected leader her principle objective.
“Siri - show me what a vassal state looks like.”
They will find out what it has been like for Scotland. Hopefully EU stick it to them big time.
It seems to me that the only way to attempt to resolve this sorry mess is to remove Theresa May from the negotiations. Whether that is by removing her as Conservative party leader, removing the Conservative party from office, or just by her supporters acting to arrange for her to take a leave of absence (return of the throat infection?) I am not sure. At this stage whoever is in charge needs to be someone who can rise above the self-deceptions listed in the article above.
As there is no such person available, what difference would it make if May left? She is not the problem. MPs are the problem.
I repeat, they need to grow up.
I think suggesting May is not the problem is overstating it but replacing her is almost certainly not the solution, at least in the next 9 days.
She's a big problem but that's because she's unable or unwilling to handle the underlying problem which is the MPs. As you say that's why getting rid of her doesn't actually solve our short term issues.
Remainers have to mobilise and get a strategy. The strategy has to lead to reversing the Referendum. No ifs no buts....We have to be as single minded and ruthless as the Leavers have been for the last 42 years.
48%-at least-don't want it and there's no reason why we should allow ourselves to go to hell in a handcart because three years ago the stupid half of the country were conned into voting for it by the drip feed of the right wing press.
We should start with the biggest advertising campaign in British history. It should be relentless. There are no restrictions on pro EU advertising now. We need a spend equivalent to the 42 years editorialising in the right wing press. We're talking billions....
Roger saying the answer is advertising. Shocked, I tell you.....
Welcome aboard, Fairlieread and Brontosaurus - always good to have a wider spread of views here.
Very good article, but I think the EU is up for one more heave - they are exasperated with May (who isn't?) but not with the British as a whole. Essentially she's going all-in on a tweaked MV3 and they'll give her the chance to try that. It might just work. Will she then resign in ordere to let someone else conduct the next two years of negotiations? Of course not - she'll politely and firmly proceed to vacillate from day to day for the next 2 years.
Failing that, the obvious option is permanent customs union, which has a clear majority in Parliament plus complete acceptance by the EU plus the essence of a solution to the Nortern Ireland border. It'll get a majority on an indicative vote this week. Why hasn't it happened? (a) because it's Remain minus, so nobody is really keen and (b) Mrs May declines to consider it. Problem (b) will be resolved if MV3 fails - Bercow won't allow an MV4 and she will be forced out one way or another.
I'm not sure about this. Permanent customs union would lose May about 140MPs from her benches and the DUP for good, I concede she'd probably retain 170 or so Tory votes.
So, she'd then need 150+ votes from opposition votes for her (amended) WA and for that to stick whilst gets it through as law (remember: it needs a bill too).
Is there any sign Corbyn is prepared to whip for it? That the SNP and LDs will suck it up and play ball?
I'd expect those parties to abstain, and for Corbyn to play silly buggers. There'd be a chunk of Labour backbenchers and some TIGers who might dance, but they won't add up to 150+.
It would be Parliament pushing for permanent Customs Union by amendment not May.
If we go to No Deal we head for a Corbyn and SNP Government sooner rather than later anyway and renegotations based on a permanent Customs Union and Single Market BINO
It says up to "5 or 6" constituencies would need a new candidate, to add to the three already underway.
We will need a new general election this year.
There is much more power to Conservative Associations that non-members think. They can, and will refuse to endorse candidates not of their liking and it is pretty hard for the cental party to impose its own wishes. I could give examples from very nearby but won't. It is true that the central party can and does prevent parties selecting the people they really want and I could give some fairly spectacular examples of seats lost because of this and nonentities elected where a local would have been much better.
Clearly the Tiggers have self-deselected, a few will step down and few more will not have the confidence of their associations. However I am sure some of those who vote effectively with the opposition will plead for mercy and regrettably will get it. I would think about 30 sitting MPs will not be candidates in the inevitable General Election.
It is true to form that Theresa does everything 6 to 8 weeks too late - that points to an election in late June. ( But probably with a different leader )
Mr. HYUFD, inconceivable. Parliament has voted against a customs union already. As the Speaker so kindly informed us, the precedent of 1604 must be respected.
There is much in the thread header that I agree with. The dishonesty, self delusion and general incompetence of our political class did not start with May, even if the current Parliament has moved it onto a new level.
Where I slightly disagree with the tone and attitude is that the UK has by no means cornered the market in political stupidity and self delusion. There has been plenty of that on the EU side of the fence as well. This is not good news because it means that we cannot expect the EU to act in a way which we consider self evidently in their interests (German car makers anyone?). They are more than capable of matching our delusions despite the heroic efforts of Westminster.
A lot of sense here.
We are where we are because no-one calculated that the Irish would select someone like Varadker as leader. He has spent the entire Brexit negotiations flicking "V"s at the British position. This obviously appeals to the Dublin intelligensia, a group every bit as self cocooned as the London remainer set.
One of the few predictions which is likely to be certainish is that V will not survive his first encounter with the Irish electorate - however that will be too late for the here and now.
It is no surprise that you cannot give bull bobby calves away in Ireland at the moment. What a genius V is.
Anyone who believes that Varadker would be replaced in Ireland by someone more accommodating to the UK view knows absolutely nothing about Irish politics whatsoever. Fine Gael is by far the most pro-British of the mainstream Irish parties. A Fianna Fail government alone or with Sinn Fein would be far less willing to look for compromise.
Remainers have to mobilise and get a strategy. The strategy has to lead to reversing the Referendum. No ifs no buts....We have to be as single minded and ruthless as the Leavers have been for the last 42 years.
48%-at least-don't want it and there's no reason why we should allow ourselves to go to hell in a handcart because three years ago the stupid half of the country were conned into voting for it by the drip feed of the right wing press.
We should start with the biggest advertising campaign in British history. It should be relentless. There are no restrictions on pro EU advertising now. We need a spend equivalent to the 42 years editorialising in the right wing press. We're talking billions....
I'm sure you'll offer your services for a share of those billions Rog
Unusually, I've read this carefully. This is realistic down-to-Earth stuff. Shades of Lysistrata?? I'd be curious to know how the Brexit vote split between the (two) sexes. There are differences you know.
"Britain may be about to learn what being a vassal state really means."
Bollocks.
Bollocks in what particular sense?
Fact - at this moment in time the UK has no control over its future economic and security relationships with the EU, and thereby with the rest of the world. We are entirely dependent on the goodwill of 27 other nations, any of whom could deny our elected leader her principle objective.
“Siri - show me what a vassal state looks like.”
I think some people have a sneaking feeling that we would be better off as a country if we were a vassal state for a year or so, while, say, Governor Barnier was installed to restore sanity. A bit like former colonies with rampantly hopeless governments thinking that actually British rule wasn't that bad.
Welcome aboard, Fairlieread and Brontosaurus - always good to have a wider spread of views here.
Very good article, but I think the EU is up for one more heave - they are exasperated with May (who isn't?) but not with the British as a whole. Essentially she's going all-in on a tweaked MV3 and they'll give her the chance to try that. It might just work. Will she then resign in ordere to let someone else conduct the next two years of negotiations? Of course not - she'll politely and firmly proceed to vacillate from day to day for the next 2 years.
Failing that, the obvious option is permanent customs union, which has a clear majority in Parliament plus complete acceptance by the EU plus the essence of a solution to the Nortern Ireland border. It'll get a majority on an indicative vote this week. Why hasn't it happened? (a) because it's Remain minus, so nobody is really keen and (b) Mrs May declines to consider it. Problem (b) will be resolved if MV3 fails - Bercow won't allow an MV4 and she will be forced out one way or another.
I think you overstate how much of a clear majority a customs union had. We are less than 2 weeks out, if it was that clear a majority it would have happened by now, even if nobody is very keen on it.
MV3 is the only option that works for a short extension if no deal is not wanted. But still despite the commentariat panicking, MPs are holding firm. The DUP dont care what happens, the ERG pray for chaos, Labour see victory in holding firm and so called rebels are clearly a myth on this.
It truly is terrible May is so paralysed because she fears cabinet resignations. Wed get more decisive action from a world cup predicting octopus.
Remainers have to mobilise and get a strategy. The strategy has to lead to reversing the Referendum. No ifs no buts....We have to be as single minded and ruthless as the Leavers have been for the last 42 years.
48%-at least-don't want it and there's no reason why we should allow ourselves to go to hell in a handcart because three years ago the stupid half of the country were conned into voting for it by the drip feed of the right wing press.
We should start with the biggest advertising campaign in British history. It should be relentless. There are no restrictions on pro EU advertising now. We need a spend equivalent to the 42 years editorialising in the right wing press. We're talking billions....
Probably another referendum would vote leave. The trouble is that our politicians are wedded to negative campaigning. The Remain campaign was not that the EU was a marvellous institution but that the EU was appalling but the world outside is a scary place. Always keep tight hold of nurse for fear of finding WTO worse! The case for Remain started by conceding most of the Brexiteers' case.
Until that changes, billions on advertising for Remain will actually mean Remain spending billions on advertising reasons to Leave.
Sensible Cabinet ministers need to call time on May.
i can't see a way forward without the tory party splitting.
On one had you have the 'remainers' (Hammond/rudd etc) which will go for a long extention/revoking
On the other you have the ERG/leavers which want No-deal/limited extention.
We all know May won't get limited exention, the EU have, correctly ruled that out, and know that parliment will not allow no-deal, espcially with bercow pulling the strings.
I am more and more convinced now, we are not leaving. Bercows intervention was the final piece of the puzzle for it, as MV3 would have been possible, but now??? Can't see it.
"Britain may be about to learn what being a vassal state really means."
Bollocks.
Impeccable logic, as ever.
Disgusting talking down of Britain.
Britain is not a vassal state and that final sentence is hyperbole that totally fails to recognise what a vassal state actually means.
It would have been nice - and fundamentally more constructive - if you could have vociferously made that point when your fellow headbangers were bandying the phrase around. But you preferred to pander to their prejudices. The inactions of people like you are a central component of why Britain is currently in the mess that it is in.
I haven't been inactive at any point, and have been vociferously lobbying two friends of mine who are ERG MPs to the expense of my friendships.
And I'm not a "headbanger". I'd have thought you'd have enough respect for me to know that by now.
I have no respect for the self-proclaimed "moderates" who have done nothing - less than nothing - to curb the Leavers who they consider hardliners until they eventually realised at the 11th hour that they were not their allies. They're just different extremists.
Humour me: how do you expect to win others over to your way of thinking, and make progress, if you have no forgiveness or sympathy for those who eventually realise you might have a point? Ironically enough, ruling out forever reengaging with those who happened to vociferously disagree with you at a point in time in the past over a matter which you considered to be of crucial importance makes you an extremist. And not very charitable or christian either.
Despite what you might be about to say in response, on this public site, I just don't think you're that fatalistic. I have a memory of your posting and character on here that goes back years, and that isn't you.
The country is in a fearful mess and it is only going to get worse from here for the foreseeable future.
O/T I've done a new spreadsheet: it's the running totals from EU referendum night. Might be useful if there's a second one. I'll post a link if PBers are interested.
Err, yes please!
On the basis that the first one made me about a grand and a half on referendum night, if we ever meet you can be assured of not having to buy your own beers!
So another day of total lack of clarity, with both sides unclear of their future course of action, with nine days to go. This is now becoming genuinely worrying.
Ultimately, I am afraid that by twice rejecting the only deal on offer for reasons that don't even remotely stand up to scrutiny, Parliament has now driven us to no deal.
The irony is that it is a mixture of rabid Leavers who want to leave with no deal to inflict maximum damage on the EU, and equally rabid Remainers who are overwhelmingly arrogant and self righteous and think we will revoke it we get this far, who have driven us to it.
But sadly given the circumstances it isn't funny. The damage to just about everything will be substantial.
The steaming pile of manure should never have been brought to parliament in the first place, a two year old could have negotiated better. Tories and May deserve all they get for the impending disaster.
There is much in the thread header that I agree with. The dishonesty, self delusion and general incompetence of our political class did not start with May, even if the current Parliament has moved it onto a new level.
Where I slightly disagree with the tone and attitude is that the UK has by no means cornered the market in political stupidity and self delusion. There has been plenty of that on the EU side of the fence as well. This is not good news because it means that we cannot expect the EU to act in a way which we consider self evidently in their interests (German car makers anyone?). They are more than capable of matching our delusions despite the heroic efforts of Westminster.
A lot of sense here.
We are where we are because no-one calculated that the Irish would select someone like Varadker as leader. He has spent the entire Brexit negotiations flicking "V"s at the British position. This obviously appeals to the Dublin intelligensia, a group every bit as self cocooned as the London remainer set.
One of the few predictions which is likely to be certainish is that V will not survive his first encounter with the Irish electorate - however that will be too late for the here and now.
It is no surprise that you cannot give bull bobby calves away in Ireland at the moment. What a genius V is.
Anyone who believes that Varadker would be replaced in Ireland by someone more accommodating to the UK view knows absolutely nothing about Irish politics whatsoever. Fine Gael is by far the most pro-British of the mainstream Irish parties. A Fianna Fail government alone or with Sinn Fein would be far less willing to look for compromise.
"Britain may be about to learn what being a vassal state really means."
Bollocks.
Impeccable logic, as ever.
Disgusting talking down of Britain.
Britain is not a vassal state and that final sentence is hyperbole that totally fails to recognise what a vassal state actually means.
It would have been nice - and fundamentally more constructive - if you could have vociferously made that point when your fellow headbangers were bandying the phrase around. But you preferred to pander to their prejudices. The inactions of people like you are a central component of why Britain is currently in the mess that it is in.
I haven't been inactive at any point, and have been vociferously lobbying two friends of mine who are ERG MPs to the expense of my friendships.
And I'm not a "headbanger". I'd have thought you'd have enough respect for me to know that by now.
I have no respect for the self-proclaimed "moderates" who have done nothing - less than nothing - to curb the Leavers who they consider hardliners until they eventually realised at the 11th hour that they were not their allies. They're just different extremists.
Humour me: how do you expect to win others over to your way of thinking, and make progress, if you have no forgiveness or sympathy for those who eventually realise you might have a point? Ironically enough, ruling out forever reengaging with those who happened to vociferously disagree with you at a point in time in the past over a matter which you considered to be of crucial importance makes you an extremist. And not very charitable or christian either.
Despite what you might be about to say in response, on this public site, I just don't think you're that fatalistic. I have a memory of your posting and character on here that goes back years, and that isn't you.
People change. When they proudly state their extremism and regard such extremism as a morally true path with religious conviction then they are an extremist, even if they comfort themselves with the delusion that it doesn't count as extremism because they oppose other extremists. It's the same reason Grieve and co dont think they are extremists.
Sensible Cabinet ministers need to call time on May.
i can't see a way forward without the tory party splitting.
On one had you have the 'remainers' (Hammond/rudd etc) which will go for a long extention/revoking
On the other you have the ERG/leavers which want No-deal/limited extention.
We all know May won't get limited exention, the EU have, correctly ruled that out, and know that parliment will not allow no-deal, espcially with bercow pulling the strings.
I am more and more convinced now, we are not leaving. Bercows intervention was the final piece of the puzzle for it, as MV3 would have been possible, but now??? Can't see it.
Depose May, revoke and immediately set up the commission Cameron should have established in order to explore the route to Brexit. Stuff it with Leavers.
Or don't depose May if she will do the other two things herself.
I still don't see what advantage an extension is to anyone but those who have never accepted the referendum result and have been working to delay it as long as possible. For them it is the longer the better, and the more uncertainty the better.
I've now doubt the EU is annoyed with the UK. If nothing else, it will lose a large source of income which will need to be replaced. I don't see a long queue of volunteers to replace it.
With the EU, you should always use the maxim … "It's not personal, it's business." They aren't our enemies, but neither are they our bosom buddies unless our interests coincide. These interests do coincide at times, but not always.
Unfortunately, for some politicians, the union is a political project, a statement of their projections for the future. yet, they get exceedingly annoyed with others who don't share their wishes. Like fans of a football team, they thus see few of the faults. I'm sure Huddersfield fans and Fulham fans will follow their team just as strongly when they are relegated this season, and dislike the successful teams. Discovering that half of the Fulham electorate support Manchester United goes down like a cup of cold sick, but it is reality.
As you can see, this criticism apples to both sides. but trying to re-rum the referendum will solve nothing. Getting a few people together to march in support to show you really, really, like your side doesn't prove anything. It reminds me of the old football chant in the home end. "Stand up, stand up, if you like City." It makes them feel better but doesn't do anything.
Vent your bile by all means, but isn't time some of you accepted the nation's democratic decision?.
Mr. HYUFD, inconceivable. Parliament has voted against a customs union already. As the Speaker so kindly informed us, the precedent of 1604 must be respected.
By just 6 votes, fewer than voted against No Deal in the last vote and fewer than voted against EUref2 in the last vote and fewer than voted against the Deal in the last vote.
We will end up with permanent Customs Union under a Corbyn SNP Government sooner rather than later anyway if we go to No Deal
Parliament doesn't get to vote on either/or questions. They just get to accept or reject one option and then if they reject it things are just left floating in the air.
This then allows them to reject everything or vote in favour of contradictory positions.
If a means could be created to force a binary choice (or even a multiple AV choice) on our MPs then we would have an outcome and finally be able to put all of the posturing to bed.
The deal has been rejected twice by Parliament, and the Speaker isn’t going to allow the same deal to be voted on again.
The PM wants a short extension, but it’s unsure why.
The same MPs that don’t want the deal, also don’t want to leave with no deal and don’t want to revoke A50.
I think my opinion is unchanged from earlier in the week, that Parliament is going to have to decide with a single vote either to leave with no deal or to revoke A50, with a general election to follow shortly afterwards, in order to hold those MPs accountable for their decision.
Is May not intending to pursue the original strategy of running the clock down, but this time with no possibility of a further extension because we won't have participated in the European elections?
The EU elections are the big stumbling block. If we are to participate in them we need to pass primary legislation first, so in practice we have only two or three weeks past 29th March to agree with the EU on the plan forward - whether that’s deal, no deal or revoke A50 has to be known by that date, there’s no chance whatsoever the EU will countenance the possibility of us remaining past 30th June not having held the elections. If we go with the deal, we will need to have formally ratified the Treaty - such that we can no longer revoke A50 - before the middle of April.
As confirmed last night by Katya Adler of the BBC legislation to enact the EU elections in the UK has to be passed through all the stages by the 21st April otherwise the UK could not take part
The consequences of that is that by late April we cannot be a member of the EU otherwise the whole of the EU elections become void and their Parliament paralysed
An extension until 30th June is the only option to avoid the EU elections and in any case can anyone on here say with honesty EU election legislation could get through a deadlock HOC
The EU demanding a long extension for a GE or referendum is not going to be popular and of course TM asking for a short extension is going to infuriate those wanting a referendum as that would be impossible. TM is effectively laying out to the HOC, my deal or no deal by 30th June, your choice
TM is of course playing to her party but so is Corbyn when he refused to discuss a referendum when he met with the other leaders, wanting only to discuss his unicorn customs union
"Britain may be about to learn what being a vassal state really means."
Bollocks.
Bollocks in what particular sense?
Fact - at this moment in time the UK has no control over its future economic and security relationships with the EU, and thereby with the rest of the world. We are entirely dependent on the goodwill of 27 other nations, any of whom could deny our elected leader her principle objective.
“Siri - show me what a vassal state looks like.”
I think some people have a sneaking feeling that we would be better off as a country if we were a vassal state for a year or so, while, say, Governor Barnier was installed to restore sanity. A bit like former colonies with rampantly hopeless governments thinking that actually British rule wasn't that bad.
Bollox Nick, have you ever heard of any previous colony having any interest in the bringing back of the hapless UK to run their country. They are all similar in that they have two fingers up to their former lords and masters.
Sensible Cabinet ministers need to call time on May.
i can't see a way forward without the tory party splitting.
On one had you have the 'remainers' (Hammond/rudd etc) which will go for a long extention/revoking
On the other you have the ERG/leavers which want No-deal/limited extention.
We all know May won't get limited exention, the EU have, correctly ruled that out, and know that parliment will not allow no-deal, espcially with bercow pulling the strings.
I am more and more convinced now, we are not leaving. Bercows intervention was the final piece of the puzzle for it, as MV3 would have been possible, but now??? Can't see it.
Depose May, revoke and immediately set up the commission Cameron should have established in order to explore the route to Brexit. Stuff it with Leavers.
Or don't depose May if she will do the other two things herself.
thats effectively kicking it into the long grass. and nothing comes back out of it.
You can tell how big the crisis is from how many new PB comments have appeared since refreshing from the last set of new comments you just read. A rubbishy approximate rule of thumb.
The consequences of that is that by late April we cannot be a member of the EU otherwise the whole of the EU elections become void and their Parliament paralysed
What a bummer it must be for the EU - insisting there is only one set of rules that must be adhered to without deviation.
He thought Band Of Outlaws was strong but he doesn't like giving short-priced favorites which may have put you off. He did mention the second though - Coko Beach - so maybe drink less Guinness next time? ;-)
He is a professional and always worth listening too but he almost invariably bets at double-figure prices, so it can be a long wait between successes.
so maybe drink less Guinness next time?
Huh?
Yes, I have done well out of listening to him in the past. I just do better off track than on. Maybe the Guinness is a factor...
The headbangers are right. May's deal is a terrible deal. But they are right for the wrong reasons.
May's deal prioritises ending FoM but with no desire by anyone in the Establishment to limit immigration, why bother? It then favours maintaining a free-ish market for goods, where we have a trade deficit with Europe, over services where we run a surplus. It is entirely the wrong way round.
It must happen. The government is still pretending there is a possibility its deal passes and wont consider anything else. They must be made to do otherwise starting with the extension.
I'd prefer the deal to pass than a long extension too, but if they had the numbers for that theyd be voting on it already.
"Britain may be about to learn what being a vassal state really means."
Bollocks.
We are in the hands of tube-surfing Owen Paterson and a couple of dozen other ERG headbangers including perhaps your friends (I have a couple also in that group).
They manifestly don’t represent the views of the overwhelming majority of the country.
Perhaps it really is time for prorogation. The legislature is not the executive, and cannot conduct negotiations with foreign nations or organisations. If they dislike government policy that much, they should no confidence the government. The tool is already there.
I still don't see what advantage an extension is to anyone but those who have never accepted the referendum result and have been working to delay it as long as possible. For them it is the longer the better, and the more uncertainty the better.
I've now doubt the EU is annoyed with the UK. If nothing else, it will lose a large source of income which will need to be replaced. I don't see a long queue of volunteers to replace it.
With the EU, you should always use the maxim … "It's not personal, it's business." They aren't our enemies, but neither are they our bosom buddies unless our interests coincide. These interests do coincide at times, but not always.
Unfortunately, for some politicians, the union is a political project, a statement of their projections for the future. yet, they get exceedingly annoyed with others who don't share their wishes. Like fans of a football team, they thus see few of the faults. I'm sure Huddersfield fans and Fulham fans will follow their team just as strongly when they are relegated this season, and dislike the successful teams. Discovering that half of the Fulham electorate support Manchester United goes down like a cup of cold sick, but it is reality.
As you can see, this criticism apples to both sides. but trying to re-rum the referendum will solve nothing. Getting a few people together to march in support to show you really, really, like your side doesn't prove anything. It reminds me of the old football chant in the home end. "Stand up, stand up, if you like City." It makes them feel better but doesn't do anything.
Vent your bile by all means, but isn't time some of you accepted the nation's democratic decision?.
"re-rum the referendum" - wasn't it rum enough the first time?
Comments
You *do* believe in fairies.
If you followed Chris's tips, you had to wait a long time for a return on your investment, but he did nail the first two home in the Fred Winter. That was as good as it got for me. Only a decent return on Bristol de Mai saved me from a complete disaster, but it was all good fun and with luck we can do it all again next year. Maybe you'll even get to meet Marf! You must be wondering whether she really exists or is just my imaginary friend! I promise she does, and hope next year she can prove it to you.
Atb
PtP
So, she'd then need 150+ votes from opposition votes for her (amended) WA and for that to stick whilst gets it through as law (remember: it needs a bill too).
Is there any sign Corbyn is prepared to whip for it? That the SNP and LDs will suck it up and play ball?
I'd expect those parties to abstain, and for Corbyn to play silly buggers. There'd be a chunk of Labour backbenchers and some TIGers who might dance, but they won't add up to 150+.
The deal has been rejected twice by Parliament, and the Speaker isn’t going to allow the same deal to be voted on again.
The PM wants a short extension, but it’s unsure why.
The same MPs that don’t want the deal, also don’t want to leave with no deal and don’t want to revoke A50.
I think my opinion is unchanged from earlier in the week, that Parliament is going to have to decide with a single vote either to leave with no deal or to revoke A50, with a general election to follow shortly afterwards, in order to hold those MPs accountable for their decision.
And I'm not a "headbanger". I'd have thought you'd have enough respect for me to know that by now.
There are downsides, but all routes from here have downsides.
Setting the rhetoric aside, who do you think is now calling the shots in the negotiation ?
I've done a new spreadsheet: it's the running totals from EU referendum night. Might be useful if there's a second one. I'll post a link if PBers are interested.
The only market I think is on the identity of the next person out, rather than the timing of it.
We will need a new general election this year.
Brexit means we do have more immediate control over trade, regulation and immigration within the UK, and it also means at the same time that we have less influence within a neighbouring bigger player of which we used to be a member of the same. Sometimes that'll work out in our favour, sometimes it won't, and that's the trade off.
It's not what a vassal state means. Such phrases are sheer journalistic hyperbole, and rather cliched ones at that. And i'm getting rather tired of them.
At every stage there has almost been no acknowledgement that whoever it is "worse" for, there should have been agreement from the start that it is bad for everyone and the priority should have been to put a framework in place to avoid it (and the EU are also to blame here, by refusing to discuss Brexit and the framework for negotiations before article 50 was triggered).
Yes, I faithfully followed all the hints from Chris on the day and left without a single winner, but I recovered on Thursday and Friday.
A good week overall.
Cheers.
The trouble with Theresa May is not that she is a poor negotiator but that she is not even trying to negotiate. Not with the EU, with Labour or her own backbenchers. There is no reaching out, no quid pro quo, just pleading to pass her deal because she knows it is the best possible deal which necessarily means any alternative is worse and therefore any concession will make things worse. so there can and must be no backsliding. There is not even the awareness that the abyss of no deal she points out as the risk her opponents run is also the risk she runs, let alone that some opponents might actually prefer that outcome.
If that’s true, it’s probably already too late to start the process. It would also mean that a few Tory MPs could engineer No Deal by sacrificing their own careers and crossing the floor to vote no confidence in the government, paralysing Parliament for up to a fortnight as the search happens for a new PM.
Despite what you might be about to say in response, on this public site, I just don't think you're that fatalistic. I have a memory of your posting and character on here that goes back years, and that isn't you.
If one of is right, we will come on here with a *buffs nails* and pointing out who said it first.
If we get it wrong, we'll keep our heads down for a bit and try and change the subject ;-)
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1108279602563219457
We are where we are because no-one calculated that the Irish would select someone like Varadker as leader. He has spent the entire Brexit negotiations flicking "V"s at the British position. This obviously appeals to the Dublin intelligensia, a group every bit as self cocooned as the London remainer set.
One of the few predictions which is likely to be certainish is that V will not survive his first encounter with the Irish electorate - however that will be too late for the here and now.
It is no surprise that you cannot give bull bobby calves away in Ireland at the moment. What a genius V is.
On the basis that the first one made me about a grand and a half on referendum night, if we ever meet you can be assured of not having to buy your own beers!
Or, to put it another way, it was an EEA/EEC membership with none of the rest.
He is a professional and always worth listening too but he almost invariably bets at double-figure prices, so it can be a long wait between successes.
48%-at least-don't want it and there's no reason why we should allow ourselves to go to hell in a handcart because three years ago the stupid half of the country were conned into voting for it by the drip feed of the right wing press.
We should start with the biggest advertising campaign in British history. It should be relentless. There are no restrictions on pro EU advertising now. We need a spend equivalent to the 42 years editorialising in the right wing press. We're talking billions....
If we go to No Deal we head for a Corbyn and SNP Government sooner rather than later anyway and renegotations based on a permanent Customs Union and Single Market BINO
Shades of Lysistrata?? I'd be curious to know how the Brexit vote split between the (two) sexes.
There are differences you know.
MV3 is the only option that works for a short extension if no deal is not wanted. But still despite the commentariat panicking, MPs are holding firm. The DUP dont care what happens, the ERG pray for chaos, Labour see victory in holding firm and so called rebels are clearly a myth on this.
It truly is terrible May is so paralysed because she fears cabinet resignations. Wed get more decisive action from a world cup predicting octopus.
Until that changes, billions on advertising for Remain will actually mean Remain spending billions on advertising reasons to Leave.
On one had you have the 'remainers' (Hammond/rudd etc) which will go for a long extention/revoking
On the other you have the ERG/leavers which want No-deal/limited extention.
We all know May won't get limited exention, the EU have, correctly ruled that out, and know that parliment will not allow no-deal, espcially with bercow pulling the strings.
I am more and more convinced now, we are not leaving. Bercows intervention was the final piece of the puzzle for it, as MV3 would have been possible, but now??? Can't see it.
https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1107193246088904704?s=20
If I were a Tory I would be hoping George Osborne stands in Peterborough.
Or don't depose May if she will do the other two things herself.
I still don't see what advantage an extension is to anyone but those who have never accepted the referendum result and have been working to delay it as long as possible. For them it is the longer the better, and the more uncertainty the better.
I've now doubt the EU is annoyed with the UK. If nothing else, it will lose a large source of income which will need to be replaced. I don't see a long queue of volunteers to replace it.
With the EU, you should always use the maxim … "It's not personal, it's business." They aren't our enemies, but neither are they our bosom buddies unless our interests coincide. These interests do coincide at times, but not always.
Unfortunately, for some politicians, the union is a political project, a statement of their projections for the future. yet, they get exceedingly annoyed with others who don't share their wishes. Like fans of a football team, they thus see few of the faults. I'm sure Huddersfield fans and Fulham fans will follow their team just as strongly when they are relegated this season, and dislike the successful teams. Discovering that half of the Fulham electorate support Manchester United goes down like a cup of cold sick, but it is reality.
As you can see, this criticism apples to both sides. but trying to re-rum the referendum will solve nothing. Getting a few people together to march in support to show you really, really, like your side doesn't prove anything. It reminds me of the old football chant in the home end. "Stand up, stand up, if you like City." It makes them feel better but doesn't do anything.
Vent your bile by all means, but isn't time some of you accepted the nation's democratic decision?.
We will end up with permanent Customs Union under a Corbyn SNP Government sooner rather than later anyway if we go to No Deal
Parliament doesn't get to vote on either/or questions. They just get to accept or reject one option and then if they reject it things are just left floating in the air.
This then allows them to reject everything or vote in favour of contradictory positions.
If a means could be created to force a binary choice (or even a multiple AV choice) on our MPs then we would have an outcome and finally be able to put all of the posturing to bed.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1108287579055632384
The consequences of that is that by late April we cannot be a member of the EU otherwise the whole of the EU elections become void and their Parliament paralysed
An extension until 30th June is the only option to avoid the EU elections and in any case can anyone on here say with honesty EU election legislation could get through a deadlock HOC
The EU demanding a long extension for a GE or referendum is not going to be popular and of course TM asking for a short extension is going to infuriate those wanting a referendum as that would be impossible. TM is effectively laying out to the HOC, my deal or no deal by 30th June, your choice
TM is of course playing to her party but so is Corbyn when he refused to discuss a referendum when he met with the other leaders, wanting only to discuss his unicorn customs union
And good article Cyclefree
which might not be a bad thing....
On that basis alone things are pretty serious.
Hur hur hur.....
Huh?
Yes, I have done well out of listening to him in the past. I just do better off track than on. Maybe the Guinness is a factor...
May's deal prioritises ending FoM but with no desire by anyone in the Establishment to limit immigration, why bother? It then favours maintaining a free-ish market for goods, where we have a trade deficit with Europe, over services where we run a surplus. It is entirely the wrong way round.
I'd prefer the deal to pass than a long extension too, but if they had the numbers for that theyd be voting on it already.
They manifestly don’t represent the views of the overwhelming majority of the country.
Is that control?