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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so MPs move on to vote against leaving the EU with no deal

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  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    JRM doing a good impression of the Black Knight from Monty Python.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    JRM says we still heading for a no deal
  • Beeb have got the Weatherspoons bloke on. Everyone he has spoken to (i.e. daytime drinkers) wants No Deal, doncha know?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    rpjs said:

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Bit of an impasse — parliament votes against the only deal on offer yesterday, and today votes against No Deal. Result = no man's land.

    No Deal continues to slide down the mountain towards 29th March......
    If the substantive is clearly passed (with the PM voting in favour), government will have to revoke before getting to no deal.
    And whilst this vote doesn't actually say revoke is the will of Parliament, by eliminating the only other possibilities, deal and no-deal, the government could say that Parliament's will is clear and revoke without a further vote.
    They could, but they won't.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    An ironic thing I don't think has been pointed out enough is this mess is entirely due to May's election.

    Had it not been for May's election the government wouldn't have lost this vote by 4.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well that's gone wrong for May, surely.

    The opposite, the ERG are now faced with No Deal being dead so it is May's Deal or BINO/No Brexit at all
    No deal doesn’t die until it’s positively replaced with something else in the eyes of the EU.
    The EU now know that the Commons will vote for Remain v Deal referendum or even full revoke of Article 50 over No Deal
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Beeb have got the Weatherspoons bloke on. Everyone he has spoken to (i.e. daytime drinkers) wants No Deal, doncha know?

    To be fair, Tim Martin does know quite a lot about No Deal. Every time I try to order a burger and a pint of proper cider at the same time in a Spoons, that's the exact phrase they use on me.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    Sean_F said:

    rpjs said:

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Bit of an impasse — parliament votes against the only deal on offer yesterday, and today votes against No Deal. Result = no man's land.

    No Deal continues to slide down the mountain towards 29th March......
    If the substantive is clearly passed (with the PM voting in favour), government will have to revoke before getting to no deal.
    And whilst this vote doesn't actually say revoke is the will of Parliament, by eliminating the only other possibilities, deal and no-deal, the government could say that Parliament's will is clear and revoke without a further vote.
    They could, but they won't.
    If you want to revoke, you need a change of government.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    edited March 2019
    Malthouse trounced

    For 164 No 374
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Malthouse is dead... LOOOLLLL
  • Malthouse amendment hammered.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    The Malthouse unicorn finally meets its maker.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    edited March 2019
    So if we get a different result in this final vote compared to the Spelman amendment vote (i.e. the other way round) then the whole evening's been a waste of time, right?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Moonbeam,

    "Beeb have got the Weatherspoons bloke on. Everyone he has spoken to (i.e. daytime drinkers) wants No Deal, doncha know?"

    You can't beat Wetherspoons for a cheap meal and a pint. A man with an eye for business and his finger on the pulse.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Haven't they just voted on this?! :lol:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    An ironic thing I don't think has been pointed out enough is this mess is entirely due to May's election.

    Had it not been for May's election the government wouldn't have lost this vote by 4.

    The wisdom of the electorate.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    GOVT VOTING AGAINST MAIN MOTION
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Malthouse had no chance with the opposition and the ERG against. The same coalition that killed May's deal.
  • Floater said:

    JRM says we still heading for a no deal

    Listening to him just now he looks quite worried and even suggested that Cox has been talking to the DUP this afternoon over MV3
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Government whipping to defeat its own motion following Spelman victory. What a farce.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    An ironic thing I don't think has been pointed out enough is this mess is entirely due to May's election.

    Had it not been for May's election the government wouldn't have lost this vote by 4.

    At the time (9th June) I said Tories needed to get rid of May and have another election in the Autumn.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    JRM is rattled.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    Floater said:

    JRM says we still heading for a no deal

    Listening to him just now he looks quite worried and even suggested that Cox has been talking to the DUP this afternoon over MV3
    Sounds like he's trying to keep the option of a climb down there.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    MikeL said:

    GOVT VOTING AGAINST MAIN MOTION

    Shabby of May if true, hiding behind the dodgy wording of the original motion. Reckon it will pass, regardless.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    So if we get a different result in this final vote compared to the Spelman amendment vote (i.e. the other way round) then the whole evening's been a waste of time, right?

    Yes though it won't happen.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    This is bloody fantastic tv.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    CD13 said:

    Mr Moonbeam,

    "Beeb have got the Weatherspoons bloke on. Everyone he has spoken to (i.e. daytime drinkers) wants No Deal, doncha know?"

    You can't beat Wetherspoons for a cheap meal and a pint. A man with an eye for business and his finger on the pulse.

    Martin is an odious individual and his pubs are absolute holes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited March 2019
    p397
    matters already decided during the same session
    A motion or an amendment which is the same, in substance, as a question which has been decided during a session may not be brought forward again during that same session. Since 1994 this rule has been applied so that, in the case of ten minute rule motions under Standing Order No 23, refusal by the House of leave to introduce a bill should be treated as the rejection of that bill at a substantive stage, with the effect that a bill with the same or a very similar long title could not be presented again in the same season. Attempts have been made made to evade this rule by raising again, with verbal alterations, the essential portions of motions which have been negatived. Whether the second motion is substantially the same as the first is finally a matter for the judgement of the Chair. In some cases the second motion has been ruled to be substantially the same as an earlier motion. The same rule has been applied to an amendment reviewing reviewing a motion which had been already negatived. Some motions, however, have been framed with sufficient ingenuity to avoid the rule. On rare occasions where the House has been offered a series of alternative proposals for its consideration, an order was made specifically directing the Chair to put the questions or later motions notwithstanding any decision of the House on earlier motions.

    However, a question which has not been definitely decided may be raised again. Thus, a motion or amendment which has been withdrawn, or on which the Chair has declared the question not decided when it appeared that fewer than 40 Members had taken part in a division, or for some other reason, may be repeated. In such cases a Member may speak again on the second occasion. Where a certain course in relation to the procedure of the House has been rejected on a particular day, it may be revived on a subsequent day.


    Other parts may apply as well, but looks to me like it could be possible for another vote on the WA to be allowed, but that the Chair has wide discretion on it. And it is Bercow.
  • So what happens if the main (utterly rewritten) motion falls? MV3 tomorrow? What if it passes...?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    So if we get a different result in this final vote compared to the Spelman amendment vote (i.e. the other way round) then the whole evening's been a waste of time, right?

    I haven't got a clue what the effect of all this is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187

    So if we get a different result in this final vote compared to the Spelman amendment vote (i.e. the other way round) then the whole evening's been a waste of time, right?

    The Government has just regained control
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited March 2019

    JRM is rattled.

    Unfortunately JRM and the rest of the DUP/ERG have become drunk on their own publicity and have probably blown Brexit forever.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, I’m pleased I laid off my stake on 400+ Ayes for the substantive, the government are probably going to whip against it now it got amended.

    Unlikely
    Looks like they will!
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    So if we get a different result in this final vote compared to the Spelman amendment vote (i.e. the other way round) then the whole evening's been a waste of time, right?

    Perhaps not, now the Spelman amendment has passed it's hard to see the government tabling another No Deal vote at a later time, assuming this one fails.
  • This is bloody fantastic tv.

    It is very confusing much like the whole process
  • CD13 said:

    Mr Moonbeam,

    "Beeb have got the Weatherspoons bloke on. Everyone he has spoken to (i.e. daytime drinkers) wants No Deal, doncha know?"

    You can't beat Wetherspoons for a cheap meal and a pint. A man with an eye for business and his finger on the pulse.

    It is cheap, but the notion that he has spoken to a representative sample of the UK population and they all wanted out without a deal (which is what he was claiming) is nonsense.

    P.S. I'm definitely not a Mr!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, I’m pleased I laid off my stake on 400+ Ayes for the substantive, the government are probably going to whip against it now it got amended.

    Unlikely
    OOps
  • _Anazina_ said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Moonbeam,

    "Beeb have got the Weatherspoons bloke on. Everyone he has spoken to (i.e. daytime drinkers) wants No Deal, doncha know?"

    You can't beat Wetherspoons for a cheap meal and a pint. A man with an eye for business and his finger on the pulse.

    Martin is an odious individual and his pubs are absolute holes.
    You wouldn't say that if he was a remainer.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    How can May as our national leader justify voting for the original no to 'no deal' motion but opposing the amended one?

    The only difference is the technically inaccurate wording that Spelman/Cooper has deleted. And she is surely setting herself up for yet another defeat.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    tlg86 said:
    Just bloody resign already - matters such as these you do what you feel is right and bugger to party policy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Three line whip against amended substantive will surely force some resignations,
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Hopefully we can get a new Chancellor now.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    I wonder if any ERG backed Spelman.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    This is looking like a complete clusterfuck for everyone involved in what they wanted to achieve.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited March 2019
    _Anazina_ said:

    Government whipping to defeat its own motion following Spelman victory. What a farce.

    This is a farce, but that aspect of it is not. It makes plenty of sense to vote against a motion which has been substantially altered. They'll lose on that, so what? They've lost far worse.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Our chances of taking part in the Euro elections must be rising quite fast at the moment.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, I’m pleased I laid off my stake on 400+ Ayes for the substantive, the government are probably going to whip against it now it got amended.

    Unlikely
    OOps
    Indeed. I didn't imagine May would want her hole any deeper.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited March 2019
    kle4 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Government whipping to defeat its own motion following Spelman victory. What a farce.

    This is a farce, but that aspect of it is not. It makes plenty of sense to vote against a motion which has been substantially altered. They'll lose on that, so what? They've lost far worse.
    But it hasn't been altered in any way significantly different from the intent of the original intention of the motion as confirmed by Gove during his opening speech.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    _Anazina_ said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Moonbeam,

    "Beeb have got the Weatherspoons bloke on. Everyone he has spoken to (i.e. daytime drinkers) wants No Deal, doncha know?"

    You can't beat Wetherspoons for a cheap meal and a pint. A man with an eye for business and his finger on the pulse.

    Martin is an odious individual and his pubs are absolute holes.
    https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1104375781919281152
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    IanB2 said:

    Three line whip against amended substantive will surely force some resignations,

    Yes, although it'll definitely pass without them, so I'm surprised this is the final straw for them.
  • Adam Boulton has just said that if this is defeated Cooper will bitterly regret her move and it would be a huge mistake by her
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    4 member of cabinet allowed to abstain.. including Rudd... LOLOLOLOLOL
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,136
    edited March 2019
    Floater said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/13/brussels-will-tell-theresa-may-ask-long-brexit-extension/

    This completely contradicts what the EU were saying publicly yesterday.

    "Brussels will grant an extension to allow time for a general election or a second referendum. It would consider a short extension to give more time to prepare for no deal but is likely to reject a British request for a brief extension to try and get the Brexit deal ratified"

    OH SHIT!!!!!

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited March 2019
    Ms Moonbeam,

    "It is cheap, but the notion that he has spoken to a representative sample of the UK population and they all wanted out without a deal (which is what he was claiming) is nonsense."

    We all live in a mini echo chamber to some extent. In the group I frequent, I suggested we shoot one in ten MPs pour encourager les autres, but I was shouted down for being too soft.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Government whipping to defeat its own motion following Spelman victory. What a farce.

    This is a farce, but that aspect of it is not. It makes plenty of sense to vote against a motion which has been substantially altered. They'll lose on that, so what? They've lost far worse.
    But it hasn't been altered in any way significantly different from the intent of the original intention of the motion as confirmed by Gove during his opening speech.
    His PM says differently. Plus this way they can claim to ERG they tried to fight their corner.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    Gauke, Rudd, Clarke all abstained, Cabinet now in open revolt
  • IanB2 said:

    Three line whip against amended substantive will surely force some resignations,

    Why? It's not like the government can sack them
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Laura K says ministers are breaking the whip/abstaining.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    HYUFD said:

    Gauke, Rudd, Clarke all abstained, Cabinet now in open revolt

    So much for collective cabinet ministerial responsibility.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    BREAKING: some Tory ministers are abstaining.

    Could tip the balance against?
  • CD13 said:

    Ms Moonbeam,

    "It is cheap, but the notion that he has spoken to a representative sample of the UK population and they all wanted out without a deal (which is what he was claiming) is nonsense."

    We all live in a mini echo chamber to some extent. In the group I frequent, I suggested we shoot one in ten MPs pour encourager les autres, but I was shouted down for being too soft.

    I'm a woolly old Liberal at heart, but I can see a case for that, under the present circs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Good thing all these MPs are so busy congratulating themselves

    The BBC's Europe Editor says that the EU is warning that the first amendment still does not take no-deal off the table.

    She says that the EU states unless MPs rally round a plan, then no-deal will happen by default.

    "The EU is saying 'please, be realistic'," she says.

    "It is still not clear" if there is one particular plan for Brexit that MPs would vote for.


    MPs on all sides still in virtue signalling mode.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    This vote will pass if the first one did I think...
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    IanB2 said:

    BREAKING: some Tory ministers are abstaining.

    Could tip the balance against?

    Presumably they voted against on the amendment?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469

    This vote will pass if the first one did I think...

    Surely if all these ministers voted against Spelman but are now abstaining it will fly through?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    GIN1138 said:

    JRM is rattled.

    Unfortunately JRM and the rest of the DUP/ERG have become drunk on their own publicity and have probably blown Brexit forever.
    JRM has turned out to be a real dickhead.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited March 2019
    viewcode said:

    Floater said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/13/brussels-will-tell-theresa-may-ask-long-brexit-extension/

    This completely contradicts what the EU were saying publicly yesterday.

    "Brussels will grant an extension to allow time for a general election or a second referendum. It would consider a short extension to give more time to prepare for no deal but is likely to reject a British request for a brief extension to try and get the Brexit deal ratified"

    OH SHIT!!!!

    Doesn't that just mean it must be ratified before the end date, ie if you are to MV3, it has to be this week?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    If the substantive goes down we really are in chaos
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    This vote will pass if the first one did I think...

    Surely if all these ministers voted against Spelman but are now abstaining it will fly through?
    They abstained on first vote but will no doubt on this one too... its all very unclear.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    This vote will pass if the first one did I think...

    Surely if all these ministers voted against Spelman but are now abstaining it will fly through?
    I'd have thought so - why would no deal suddenly win the day?
  • GIN1138 said:

    JRM is rattled.

    Unfortunately JRM and the rest of the DUP/ERG have become drunk on their own publicity and have probably blown Brexit forever.
    JRM has turned out to be a real dickhead.
    If only there had been some clues to alert us to this.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    GIN1138 said:

    JRM is rattled.

    Unfortunately JRM and the rest of the DUP/ERG have become drunk on their own publicity and have probably blown Brexit forever.
    JRM has turned out to be a real dickhead.
    Lol @ "turned out"
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    at least 4 cabinet ministers abstained, including Rudd, Mundell, Gauke...
  • GIN1138 said:

    JRM is rattled.

    Unfortunately JRM and the rest of the DUP/ERG have become drunk on their own publicity and have probably blown Brexit forever.
    JRM has turned out to be a real dickhead.
    They cannot say they haven't been warned. They really are poor at this
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    GIN1138 said:

    JRM is rattled.

    Unfortunately JRM and the rest of the DUP/ERG have become drunk on their own publicity and have probably blown Brexit forever.
    JRM has turned out to be a real dickhead.
    Dickhead's the word. I used to think he was an amusing oddball.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    IanB2 said:

    If the substantive goes down we really are in chaos

    Nah - they can vote for the damn deal :)

    My money is on MV5.
  • IanB2 said:

    If the substantive goes down we really are in chaos

    Nothing changes !!!!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    CD13 said:

    Mr Moonbeam,

    "Beeb have got the Weatherspoons bloke on. Everyone he has spoken to (i.e. daytime drinkers) wants No Deal, doncha know?"

    You can't beat Wetherspoons for a cheap meal and a pint. A man with an eye for business and his finger on the pulse.

    It is cheap, but the notion that he has spoken to a representative sample of the UK population and they all wanted out without a deal (which is what he was claiming) is nonsense.

    P.S. I'm definitely not a Mr!
    He visited a local pub where I live and I was tempted to go and tell him he was factually incorrect about many things he says the EU does. I decided not to go as I feared for my safety plus I did not want to line his pockets or my stomach with his beer! An example of him being factually incorrect in the last 6 months was when he claimed that European commissioners decided the level of immigration into the UK, which is wrong. European commissioners have zero influence on UK immigration policy and it is absurd to say they do as they patently do not. The bloke talks out of his arse! An ignorant man who mixes with his own kind creating an infinite feed back loop of stupidity!
  • My head is spinning
  • Bad Al Cambell has nearly jizzed his pants on Sky
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    Ayes 321 Noes 278

    Government defeated, Parliament takes control
  • tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gauke, Rudd, Clarke all abstained, Cabinet now in open revolt

    So much for collective cabinet ministerial responsibility.
    That hasn't existed for a long time. All this talk of people needing to resign voting against May - who cares? She has no authority in her cabinet or her government

    321 to 278 says Taxi for May
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited March 2019
    "Government" motion as amended passes despite being three-line opposed by the government that tabled it.

    321 v 278
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    LOLOLOL clear clear pass....!!!
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    "his pubs are absolute holes."

    The food is cheap and they're very popular. I'm not sure a Michelin-starred eatery will be a better gauge of public opinion.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    My head is spinning

    It's called Brexit nausea, and it is quite serious.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    edited March 2019

    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gauke, Rudd, Clarke all abstained, Cabinet now in open revolt

    So much for collective cabinet ministerial responsibility.
    That hasn't existed for a long time. All this talk of people needing to resign voting against May - who cares? She has no authority in her cabinet or her government

    321 to 278 says Taxi for May
    Far from it, this tells the ERG it is May's Deal or No Brexit/BINO
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    shes' really not going to try 'nothing has changed.....?????'
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    HYUFD said:

    Ayes 321 Noes 278

    Government defeated, Parliament takes control

    Er, no. The government has been defeated, parliament has yet to make a positive decision about something so has not taken control.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    God, she is so awful.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469

    shes' really not going to try 'nothing has changed.....?????'

    Yup. :D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    It's gone from bad to worse for the Tories !
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Okay this is now absolute chaos. More of the same tomorrow folks!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    viewcode said:

    Floater said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/13/brussels-will-tell-theresa-may-ask-long-brexit-extension/

    This completely contradicts what the EU were saying publicly yesterday.

    "Brussels will grant an extension to allow time for a general election or a second referendum. It would consider a short extension to give more time to prepare for no deal but is likely to reject a British request for a brief extension to try and get the Brexit deal ratified"

    OH SHIT!!!!!

    That's pretty much what they've been saying all along.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,136
    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Floater said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/13/brussels-will-tell-theresa-may-ask-long-brexit-extension/

    This completely contradicts what the EU were saying publicly yesterday.

    "Brussels will grant an extension to allow time for a general election or a second referendum. It would consider a short extension to give more time to prepare for no deal but is likely to reject a British request for a brief extension to try and get the Brexit deal ratified"

    OH SHIT!!!!

    Doesn't that just mean it must be ratified before the end date, ie if you are to MV3, it has to be this week?
    No. It means that if Parliament has not agreed on anything by the 29th and May asks for a short extension before the 29th, they will allow a short extension to prepare for no deal. This means we will leave with no deal in around May/June, which is the event I'm not covered for.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    CD13 said:

    "his pubs are absolute holes."

    The food is cheap and they're very popular. I'm not sure a Michelin-starred eatery will be a better gauge of public opinion.

    Great choice of beers at reasonable prices as well.
  • How the hell can May carry on? She is finished.
This discussion has been closed.