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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Let us not forget that first we see how long an extension the Commons will amend the motion tomorrow for, and second, why would MPs like Clarke vote for the deal a third time even if Bercow lets them?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    IanB2 said:

    ERG Baker committing to vote MV3 down in Parliament.

    Tw@
    So is Francois... bellend..
  • I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

    They shouldn't be given the chance. She's had two attempts. That's it. Time for a new deal that commands cross party support.
    I keep hearing this 'new deal' but the EU has said they are done, there's no other unicorn deals out there ..... wishing for one doesn't butter the parsnips.
  • HYUFD said:

    I still can't see how it will pass - DUP aren't going to change their minds, some ERG hard liners will choose to stick as well. Mogg will vote against as I cannot see how revoke - the only remaining option at that point - will get a majority or how having done so it could be implemented whilst May remains PM

    It's going to be no deal. At which point we're fucked in every way possible - economic chaos combined with the simultaneous tearing asunder of both main parties
    Even revoke is more likely than No Deal tonight
    I agree
    Revoke is why Labour MPs will not back the deal. They will maintain that revoke is within their grasp - just as no deal within ERG grasp is why they also won't back the deal. Nor will May going in April happen.

    So let's think this through. In the unlikely event that the Commons passes a motion that the government should revoke. They still won't do it. And enough Tory MPs will shield May from the pressure / motion of contempt / motion of no confidence to stop revoke happening
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    I'm nearly 46, and for the first time in my life I'm seriously embarrassed by my nation. The rest of the world must be looking at us and thinking: "What the f**k are they doing," and "What a load of clueless f**kwits."

    Everyone says what they're against, what they hate, and too few people saying what they're for. Idealism and opportunism trumps compromise and realism.

    We couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery, and the world knows it because they can see us in the brewery pissing into the vats, failing to tap the barrels and holding glasses upside down whilst we wonder why they won't hold any liquid.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited March 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Expel the entirety of the ERG from the party and call an election. Simple. Tell them to beg Farage for a seat to run and lose in. Pompous bunch of fantasist twats

    Great strategy except for the views of the Tories' white pensioner membership.
    Much like the labour racism enablers 'staying to fight' the Tory pompous patrician scumbag enablers need to decide if they are wedded to a party or a set of ideals and act accordingly
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,619
    TGOHF said:
    That would be the best result all round.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

    They shouldn't be given the chance. She's had two attempts. That's it. Time for a new deal that commands cross party support.
    I keep hearing this 'new deal' but the EU has said they are done, there's no other unicorn deals out there ..... wishing for one doesn't butter the parsnips.
    Indeed, and the deal on the table isn't all that bad.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited March 2019

    IanB2 said:

    ERG Baker committing to vote MV3 down in Parliament.

    Tw@
    So is Francois... bellend..
    So fortunate to have such an array of talent to admire.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,501
    stodge said:

    You know what?

    I’m not shy of criticising May’s political skills and leadership style but I’m getting a little bit tired of this.

    She’s the only one who’s worked night and day to try and bring a deal about, and hasn’t given up or moved on trying to deliver on the Brexit mandate regardless of the obstacles or difficulties. And she’s had to put up with a remarkable amount of shit (from everyone) to do this when hardly anyone (perhaps no one) has had any better ideas to how to execute it.

    She’s earned my respect for her tenacity, determination and sense of duty if nothing else. So, no, I won’t dump it all on her.

    It most certainly is not all TM fault.

    I agree with your comments and put this mess at the door of the 498 mps who voted to invoke A50 with a default no deal outcome
    I'm no Conservative but I respect her diligence, her integrity and recognise her earnest desire to do the best (as she sees it) for Party and country.

    As for "blame", yes, there's plenty to go round but I start with May failing to include and accept voices from outside her Party and Government. Leaving the EU is a national project and required a range of skills, expertise and opinion from across the political spectrum but instead she secreted the whole process within the Conservative Party and spent her spare time making jibes at Labour and talking about "uniting the country".

    As for the nonsense about the 498 MPs and A50, the No Deal outcome isn't our default, it's within A50 itself - you can argue the 24 month time limit is absurd and that's valid but the fact of leaving without a Deal or an agreed extension is within the A50 process. We couldn't have invalidated the No Deal option - could we have prepared better?

    That’s a fair critique.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Andrew said:

    rpjs said:


    If the EU won't grant an extension, then even if MV3 passes, there still needs to be


    If MV3 passes, a short extension would suddenly be no problem at all. They're hardly going to send us all into a crash no-deal mess for want of 2 months, when it's fully agreed.
    Also remember that the day after a theoretical MV3 (on the same deal) passes the Commons, the DUP will vote against the government in a vote of confidence.
  • AFAICS it is not within Parliament's power to ban 'no deal'. Unless the EU allow an extension (whatever for) don't we leave in a couple of weeks? Brexit derangement syndrome.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

    Why would you refuse to believe that with all the evidence that’s available and in front of you?

    I don't know! It just doesn't compute. This. Is. What. They. Want. Why don't they want it?

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    edited March 2019
    Sandpit said:

    Andrew said:

    rpjs said:


    If the EU won't grant an extension, then even if MV3 passes, there still needs to be


    If MV3 passes, a short extension would suddenly be no problem at all. They're hardly going to send us all into a crash no-deal mess for want of 2 months, when it's fully agreed.
    Also remember that the day after a theoretical MV3 (on the same deal) passes the Commons, the DUP will vote against the government in a vote of confidence.
    I wouldn't be surprised if a few Labour MPs forgot to vote that day.

    They will not want an election against a Tory party that has finally passed a deal vs Jez who is looking a lot more tired than he did in 2017.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    This is NOT a joke:

    Tory Whip Mike Freer just ignored a three line whip he imposed on himself.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,501

    I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

    Why would you refuse to believe that with all the evidence that’s available and in front of you?

    I don't know! It just doesn't compute. This. Is. What. They. Want. Why don't they want it?

    That’s a very good question.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

    Why would you refuse to believe that with all the evidence that’s available and in front of you?

    I don't know! It just doesn't compute. This. Is. What. They. Want. Why don't they want it?

    Maybe they prefer what they view as a "real Brexit" at a later date rather than a less preferable Brexit on 29th March.
  • Mark Francois is an utter cock..

    How on earth such an ignorant piece of work represents my party, words fail me
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    IMO, MPs should table an amendment to tomorrow's vote saying the exact wording of May's letter requesting an extension of Article 50 has to be approved in a Commons vote before she sends it.

    On today's evidence, I really wouldn't trust her not to try to wriggle her way out of a commitment to request an extension if she's given any room to do so.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    tyson said:

    And somebody deal with jew baiter Corbyn. He's a bigger embarrassment than May

    Tone it down a notch comrade

    I'm in an exceptionally bad mood tonight, Corbyn has gotten off far too lightly. But yeah, raging will solve nothing.
    It really is time for a reshaping of the political scene. Now is the time!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

    I know some of these people. Some will fold, but enough won't.
  • HYUFD said:

    I still can't see how it will pass - DUP aren't going to change their minds, some ERG hard liners will choose to stick as well. Mogg will vote against as I cannot see how revoke - the only remaining option at that point - will get a majority or how having done so it could be implemented whilst May remains PM

    It's going to be no deal. At which point we're fucked in every way possible - economic chaos combined with the simultaneous tearing asunder of both main parties
    Even revoke is more likely than No Deal tonight
    I agree
    I said last night surely a vote on whether to revoke article 50 was a logical outcome of the path we seem set on...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    HYUFD said:

    I still can't see how it will pass - DUP aren't going to change their minds, some ERG hard liners will choose to stick as well. Mogg will vote against as I cannot see how revoke - the only remaining option at that point - will get a majority or how having done so it could be implemented whilst May remains PM

    It's going to be no deal. At which point we're fucked in every way possible - economic chaos combined with the simultaneous tearing asunder of both main parties
    Even revoke is more likely than No Deal tonight
    I agree
    Revoke is why Labour MPs will not back the deal. They will maintain that revoke is within their grasp - just as no deal within ERG grasp is why they also won't back the deal. Nor will May going in April happen.

    So let's think this through. In the unlikely event that the Commons passes a motion that the government should revoke. They still won't do it. And enough Tory MPs will shield May from the pressure / motion of contempt / motion of no confidence to stop revoke happening
    GE 2019!!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    Danny565 said:

    IMO, MPs should table an amendment to tomorrow's vote saying the exact wording of May's letter requesting an extension of Article 50 has to be approved in a Commons vote before she sends it.

    I don't think there'll be a letter. She'll do it in person at the European Council meeting next weekend.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    AFAICS it is not within Parliament's power to ban 'no deal'. Unless the EU allow an extension (whatever for) don't we leave in a couple of weeks? Brexit derangement syndrome.

    A50 withdrawal doesn't require EU consent, extension does.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    AndyJS said:

    I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

    Why would you refuse to believe that with all the evidence that’s available and in front of you?

    I don't know! It just doesn't compute. This. Is. What. They. Want. Why don't they want it?

    Maybe they prefer what they view as a "real Brexit" at a later date rather than a less preferable Brexit on 29th March.
    If we don't leave in the next few weeks, we will never leave until the EU collapses or becomes some quasi one world government.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,501

    IanB2 said:

    ERG Baker committing to vote MV3 down in Parliament.

    Eurosceptic Retard Group?
    I think there’s some basic human psychology going on here too.

    It’s very hard for a person to break with their close knit peer group which has banded together through thick and thin, and you’ve shared your innermost thoughts and fears and prejudices with. No-one likes to do it.

    Nevertheless, they are paid to think for themselves and not be led by others or fear of what others may think of them.
  • This is NOT a joke:

    Tory Whip Mike Freer just ignored a three line whip he imposed on himself.

    None of this is a joke
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    FF43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    May, she is an utter disaster.

    You know what?

    I’m not shy of criticising May’s political skills and leadership style but I’m getting a little bit tired of this.

    She’s the only one who’s worked night and day to try and bring a deal about, and hasn’t given up or moved on trying to deliver on the Brexit mandate regardless of the obstacles or difficulties. And she’s had to put up with a remarkable amount of shit (from everyone) to do this when hardly anyone (perhaps no one) has had any better ideas to how to execute it.

    She’s earned my respect for her tenacity, determination and sense of duty if nothing else. So, no, I won’t dump it all on her.
    I don't blame May for Brexit turning out broadly as I expected it to, with a major political crisis.
    Yes, but you’re only a slightly more subtle William Glenn.

    May has laid out a practical exit route and a fair deal that I’m more than comfortable with.

    The prats in the ERG would have given their right arms for this five years ago.
    I should also have said, I was expecting Brexit to pass more easily and the major crisis to happen afterwards. But the issues are the same and they won't go away, nor will the crisis, even if May's Deal does pass
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Sean_F said:

    I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

    I know some of these people. Some will fold, but enough won't.
    I don't understand how they don't see the remain pincer movement coming. How have we managed to get a bunch of thickos as MPs?!
  • Marco1Marco1 Posts: 34
    For those of you gloating at these MP Votes you should hang your head in shame. You just do not believe in democracy, The Parliament is an embarrasssment to the Country and this period of time will be looked on in Politicians disgrace. Its like a banana republic coup d'etat, so sad
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    I'm nearly 46, and for the first time in my life I'm seriously embarrassed by my nation. The rest of the world must be looking at us and thinking: "What the f**k are they doing," and "What a load of clueless f**kwits."

    As many times as I read this I never cease to be baffled by this attitude. I wouldn't expect another nation to be embarrassed because it has clueless politicians and what I might think are stupid political arguments.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Another possibility: some ERG members deciding to support a 2nd referendum in preference to voting for a deal they don't support. That would put them in the same camp as a lot of Labour MPs, and would be yet another unexpected alliance.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

    Why would you refuse to believe that with all the evidence that’s available and in front of you?

    I don't know! It just doesn't compute. This. Is. What. They. Want. Why don't they want it?

    Maybe, deep down, they just want a grievance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Danny565 said:

    IMO, MPs should table an amendment to tomorrow's vote saying the exact wording of May's letter requesting an extension of Article 50 has to be approved in a Commons vote before she sends it.

    You even seen even 10 people argue line by line over a document? They'd never agree the wording of a letter with that many involved.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    IanB2 said:

    ERG Baker committing to vote MV3 down in Parliament.

    Tw@
    So is Francois... bellend..
    So fortunate to have such an array of talent to admire.
    Wasn’t Francois a Shadow Europe spokesman back in the day? You get the impression that it’s personal with him. He looks like he’s gonna stick the head on someone. I wonder if there was an incident during his EU years that bred a seething hatred in him?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    If we only have a short extension and Parliament wants to avoid no deal then that still only leaves May's deal, so Parliament need to be minded to back a longer extension.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

    I know some of these people. Some will fold, but enough won't.
    I don't understand how they don't see the remain pincer movement coming. How have we managed to get a bunch of thickos as MPs?!
    We don’t pay our politicians money commensurate with their responsibilities, and we make their personal lives dreadful. Governing Britain today is positively tedious compared with any other time in the last 300 years. No wonder we have more gadflies and fools than statesmen.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218

    This is NOT a joke:

    Tory Whip Mike Freer just ignored a three line whip he imposed on himself.

    There are chinless wonders on all sides.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    This is NOT a joke:

    Tory Whip Mike Freer just ignored a three line whip he imposed on himself.

    He’ll very likely be an ex-whip by the morning!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Mark Francois is an utter cock..

    How on earth such an ignorant piece of work represents my party, words fail me
    The wonders of FPTnP
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Sean_F said:

    I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

    Why would you refuse to believe that with all the evidence that’s available and in front of you?

    I don't know! It just doesn't compute. This. Is. What. They. Want. Why don't they want it?

    Maybe, deep down, they just want a grievance.
    I used to be a raging lefty ideological, uncompromising headbanger- then I grew up. What's the excuse for the ERG?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,619

    This is NOT a joke:

    Tory Whip Mike Freer just ignored a three line whip he imposed on himself.

    Now presumably freer of the responsibility of the Whips office.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Sean_F said:

    I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

    Why would you refuse to believe that with all the evidence that’s available and in front of you?

    I don't know! It just doesn't compute. This. Is. What. They. Want. Why don't they want it?

    Maybe, deep down, they just want a grievance.
    Like the earthworm in James and the Giant Peach: The problem is that there is no problem.

    But hey are considerably blinder than the earthworm.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    So, it looks like my view of May's plan was correct:

    So, May's current plan:

    1 - Vote on No Deal, phrasing it that the only way to secure Brexit in time is to leave with a Deal and imply that a "No" to No Deal means Deal or no Brexit. Have it go down big.
    2 - Vote on extend-and-revoke and extend-and-referendum. Have them go down.
    3 - Revive the Deal yet again and go for MV3, claiming the House has rejected literally everything else.

    Pitfalls: The House may amend one of the above to something else (to what, though?). It may vote "All right, yes then" to one of them (Which one? Only the first vote is a free one; with a 3-line whip, is there a majority in the House for a 2nd ref or revocation?). There may be a VoNC that's won by the Opposition (Do enough MPs want to take the chance of a Corbyn government or for No Deal to occur while the 2 week period is running?). All the fannying about may result in the clock running out with no decision and No Deal by default

    And she ran into the first pitfall, which was that the House amended the No Deal vote by simply deleting the bit that implied a "No" to No Deal means Deal or no Brexit.

    Which has put the rest of her plan into some jeopardy. She will, however, doubtless continue without significant change and try to have extend-and-revoke and extend-and-referendum go down.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    I'm nearly 46, and for the first time in my life I'm seriously embarrassed by my nation. The rest of the world must be looking at us and thinking: "What the f**k are they doing," and "What a load of clueless f**kwits."

    Everyone says what they're against, what they hate, and too few people saying what they're for. Idealism and opportunism trumps compromise and realism.

    We couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery, and the world knows it because they can see us in the brewery pissing into the vats, failing to tap the barrels and holding glasses upside down whilst we wonder why they won't hold any liquid.

    I bet there are a lot of intelligent people living around the world in less polished democracies than ours wishing they lived under such a virile, functioning legislature.
    Better this than the ram-roading of the Blair years.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    The forces that will be unleashed if we revoke won't go back in the bottle. PM Farsge taking us out acrimoniously and damaging the EU in the process is not out of the question. 17.4 million will vote to see their will imposed and a party offering Brexit without referendum and without a deal immediately will gather them in.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105934984521621504
    So really none of them even back the deal, they just didn't want to lose a pay packet?
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    Why would any Remainer Tory vote for MV3 now that no deal is off the table?

    The Deal is Dead.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    "ERG wavering" "DUP might consider position" "Labour leavers will move if it looks close"

    I wanted the deal to pass initially too, but we cannot just keep trotting out these expectations.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Are we having fun yet?
  • I feel weirdly nostalgic for the Major years.

    Remember that time Belgium didn't have a government for 18 months? That must have been so relaxing.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725

    The forces that will be unleashed if we revoke won't go back in the bottle. PM Farsge taking us out acrimoniously and damaging the EU in the process is not out of the question. 17.4 million will vote to see their will imposed and a party offering Brexit without referendum and without a deal immediately will gather them in.

    You think a general election platform of "Brexit all over again" will be a winner?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    MV3 seems to me suddenly to be the strong favourite.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    TGOHF said:
    That would be the best result all round.
    Will Bercow allow MV3
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    MV4: A New Hope.

    But I’m not sure the Speaker is going to allow MV3.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    So, it looks like my view of May's plan was correct:

    So, May's current plan:

    1 - Vote on No Deal, phrasing it that the only way to secure Brexit in time is to leave with a Deal and imply that a "No" to No Deal means Deal or no Brexit. Have it go down big.
    2 - Vote on extend-and-revoke and extend-and-referendum. Have them go down.
    3 - Revive the Deal yet again and go for MV3, claiming the House has rejected literally everything else.

    Pitfalls: The House may amend one of the above to something else (to what, though?). It may vote "All right, yes then" to one of them (Which one? Only the first vote is a free one; with a 3-line whip, is there a majority in the House for a 2nd ref or revocation?). There may be a VoNC that's won by the Opposition (Do enough MPs want to take the chance of a Corbyn government or for No Deal to occur while the 2 week period is running?). All the fannying about may result in the clock running out with no decision and No Deal by default

    And she ran into the first pitfall, which was that the House amended the No Deal vote by simply deleting the bit that implied a "No" to No Deal means Deal or no Brexit.

    Which has put the rest of her plan into some jeopardy. She will, however, doubtless continue without significant change and try to have extend-and-revoke and extend-and-referendum go down.
    Except that extend will go through. The question, as tonight, will be whether the government retains its weasel wording or whether Parliament forces through some copy editing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Streeter said:

    Why would any Remainer Tory vote for MV3 now that no deal is off the table?

    The Deal is Dead.

    Well, no deal is not legally off the table yet, so there's still some risk, but indeed, and several gave indications of such as well. Assuming all those who backed MV2 would do the same for MV3 is brave.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Are we having fun yet?

    :bawling:
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    RoyalBlue said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

    I know some of these people. Some will fold, but enough won't.
    I don't understand how they don't see the remain pincer movement coming. How have we managed to get a bunch of thickos as MPs?!
    We don’t pay our politicians money commensurate with their responsibilities, and we make their personal lives dreadful. Governing Britain today is positively tedious compared with any other time in the last 300 years. No wonder we have more gadflies and fools than statesmen.

    I love your post.

    I couldn't be an MP for the reasons you say....there are easier and less tedious ways of making much better money. And if you want some sense self worth afforded by public duty..do what I have just done and return to being a social worker (or priest)
  • The forces that will be unleashed if we revoke won't go back in the bottle. PM Farsge taking us out acrimoniously and damaging the EU in the process is not out of the question. 17.4 million will vote to see their will imposed and a party offering Brexit without referendum and without a deal immediately will gather them in.

    Those same people will be Just As Outraged if the deal passes and we leave the EU. As we won't have left the EU. Apparently
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    MV4: A New Hope.

    But I’m not sure the Speaker is going to allow MV3.
    Why would he? He could, there seems wiggle room in the rules to allow it, but with Brexit almost defeated he has no reason to be nice.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    The forces that will be unleashed if we revoke won't go back in the bottle. PM Farsge taking us out acrimoniously and damaging the EU in the process is not out of the question. 17.4 million will vote to see their will imposed and a party offering Brexit without referendum and without a deal immediately will gather them in.

    You think a general election platform of "Brexit all over again" will be a winner?
    I think a platform of Brexit on day one, no negotiation, no deal, no payment no need for referendum, deliver the Brexit you voted for as a direct appeal to the 17.4 million would attract massive support if Brexit is revoked.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Say we get a third MV and most but not all ERG back May's deal. At what point do they have the moral high ground if it still loses (and would have still lost even with all Brexiteers onside)? Would it need there to be fewer Brexit rebels than remain rebels?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    The forces that will be unleashed if we revoke won't go back in the bottle. PM Farsge taking us out acrimoniously and damaging the EU in the process is not out of the question. 17.4 million will vote to see their will imposed and a party offering Brexit without referendum and without a deal immediately will gather them in.

    Those same people will be Just As Outraged if the deal passes and we leave the EU. As we won't have left the EU. Apparently
    Exactly. We are fast approaching the choice between: a) unhappy leavers; everyone else's life goes on, or b) unhappy leavers; real damage to our country's economy and reputation.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    MV3: This Shit Just Got Serious
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    MV3 seems to me suddenly to be the strong favourite.

    May's going to get her deal through....next week or the week after...to be honest it is the only show in town....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    NEW THREAD
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited March 2019

    I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

    Why would you refuse to believe that with all the evidence that’s available and in front of you?

    I don't know! It just doesn't compute. This. Is. What. They. Want. Why don't they want it?

    It does compute to me, funnily enough as a Remainer. I voted Remain because I thought EU membership was the best for the country. But the vote went the other way, and maybe I can accept the result, get with the programme. Yes Britain will be damaged by Brexit, but I didn't vote for it. Seeking to limit that damage is a worthwhile endeavour to me.

    If you are a Leaver, you didn't vote for damage limitation. You voted to make things better. All the practical downsides either don't exist, have nothing to do with Brexit, or are somebody else's fault. So why should you leave an organisation, where you have a say to one where that organisation simply tells what to do and you have no say? That wasn't what you voted for.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    edited March 2019

    The forces that will be unleashed if we revoke won't go back in the bottle. PM Farsge taking us out acrimoniously and damaging the EU in the process is not out of the question. 17.4 million will vote to see their will imposed and a party offering Brexit without referendum and without a deal immediately will gather them in.

    You think a general election platform of "Brexit all over again" will be a winner?
    I think a platform of Brexit on day one, no negotiation, no deal, no payment no need for referendum, deliver the Brexit you voted for as a direct appeal to the 17.4 million would attract massive support if Brexit is revoked.
    It's not possible. The Article 50 period is two years, so the quickest you can get to No Deal is two years.

    And "the Brexit you voted for" was not No Deal.

    https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/744138949384278016
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    The forces that will be unleashed if we revoke won't go back in the bottle. PM Farsge taking us out acrimoniously and damaging the EU in the process is not out of the question. 17.4 million will vote to see their will imposed and a party offering Brexit without referendum and without a deal immediately will gather them in.

    Those same people will be Just As Outraged if the deal passes and we leave the EU. As we won't have left the EU. Apparently
    Not to the same extent and the dynamic is totally different, but there's certainly a risk of nationalism on the rise regardless, politicians are trying very hard to completely break trust with voters
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    The forces that will be unleashed if we revoke won't go back in the bottle. PM Farsge taking us out acrimoniously and damaging the EU in the process is not out of the question. 17.4 million will vote to see their will imposed and a party offering Brexit without referendum and without a deal immediately will gather them in.

    If we end up taking part in the EU elections, there’s sadly a pretty good chance of ‘Tommy Robinson’ and a couple of his friends ending up as MEPs.

    Right now, there’s 350 or so MPs who want to revoke A50, but without their own fingerprints appearing on the decision.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    The forces that will be unleashed if we revoke won't go back in the bottle. PM Farsge taking us out acrimoniously and damaging the EU in the process is not out of the question. 17.4 million will vote to see their will imposed and a party offering Brexit without referendum and without a deal immediately will gather them in.

    lol - That is quite funny! FPTP and the usual snags that trip up parties from challenging the established parties will stop that fantasy!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    Fenster said:

    I'm nearly 46, and for the first time in my life I'm seriously embarrassed by my nation. The rest of the world must be looking at us and thinking: "What the f**k are they doing," and "What a load of clueless f**kwits."

    Everyone says what they're against, what they hate, and too few people saying what they're for. Idealism and opportunism trumps compromise and realism.

    We couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery, and the world knows it because they can see us in the brewery pissing into the vats, failing to tap the barrels and holding glasses upside down whilst we wonder why they won't hold any liquid.

    I bet there are a lot of intelligent people living around the world in less polished democracies than ours wishing they lived under such a virile, functioning legislature.
    Better this than the ram-roading of the Blair years.
    No. Just no.

    There is plenty of reasons to criticise Blair's governments - just as there are any government - reasonably or unreasonably. But it generally functioned. Yes, there were problems: Iraq, obviously, and the spending.

    But we currently have a government that is paralysed - Brexit is the parasitic wasp and the government the helpless cockroach. It's a zombie legislature. There's stuff the government needs to be doing and it isn't doing them, because Brexit consumes everything.

    Worse, there's no obvious way out of this mess, even in the medium term. Even if May;s deal passes, we've got years of negotiating ahead. And we're not proving good at that, even amongst ourselves.

    How can we sell ourselves around the world as the serious, helpful friend we want to be when all they see are a bunch of clowns in a boxing ring kicking each other in the knackers?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218
    RoyalBlue said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

    I know some of these people. Some will fold, but enough won't.
    I don't understand how they don't see the remain pincer movement coming. How have we managed to get a bunch of thickos as MPs?!
    We don’t pay our politicians money commensurate with their responsibilities, and we make their personal lives dreadful. Governing Britain today is positively tedious compared with any other time in the last 300 years. No wonder we have more gadflies and fools than statesmen.

    Err surely, to take a rather obvious example from tonight Stephen Clarke who is being paid £75k a year should have been capable of the sort of stonkingly obvious foresight he lackwittedly realised this evening he messed up on ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,263
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:
    Had Spelman not passed then there would not have been a whip so they'd have been free to vote against No Deal. Instead, it was whipped and the likes of Rudd had to go against the government.
    And given the way the original motion was worded, May would have been free to ignore it and carry on as before.
    If we are to have any chance of avoiding No Deal by filibuster, the salutary shock was necessary - and it’s not exactly Cooper’s responsibility to hold the Tories together.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    The forces that will be unleashed if we revoke won't go back in the bottle. PM Farsge taking us out acrimoniously and damaging the EU in the process is not out of the question. 17.4 million will vote to see their will imposed and a party offering Brexit without referendum and without a deal immediately will gather them in.

    You think a general election platform of "Brexit all over again" will be a winner?
    I think a platform of Brexit on day one, no negotiation, no deal, no payment no need for referendum, deliver the Brexit you voted for as a direct appeal to the 17.4 million would attract massive support if Brexit is revoked.
    Yep. Conseravtives will collapse across the country.

    Labour... I'm not so sure what the northern heartlands would do. I could see Farage becoming LOTO to a Corbyn government with Con under 100 MPs.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited March 2019
    Mr Observer et al,

    I'll try and help you here.

    The EU likes its deal because …. (1) We stay in and continue to pay (2) They assume and hope that after ten years, we'll become used to this and lose the will to fight anymore (3) It takes pressure off them with other recalcitrant members.

    ERG dislike the deal because of those three factors and because we are dependent on the EU acting in good faith. They don't believe it will.

    I have sympathy with ERG but I'd go along with this deal because I suspect the EU will quickly revert to its usual MO. It will continue its advance to a true European union, and probably at a faster speed. We'll be forced to grin and bear it or summon the courage to finally leave.

    I think the latter will happen. It will however take time, and the wound inflicted on democracy will take much longer to heal.

    It will be no more 'Mr Nice Guy' from now on.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    The forces that will be unleashed if we revoke won't go back in the bottle. PM Farsge taking us out acrimoniously and damaging the EU in the process is not out of the question. 17.4 million will vote to see their will imposed and a party offering Brexit without referendum and without a deal immediately will gather them in.

    If the idiots had in fact done so in GE2017, May would have a majority of 200 and Brexit would have been done and dusted a long time ago. But they didn't.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Sandpit said:

    The forces that will be unleashed if we revoke won't go back in the bottle. PM Farsge taking us out acrimoniously and damaging the EU in the process is not out of the question. 17.4 million will vote to see their will imposed and a party offering Brexit without referendum and without a deal immediately will gather them in.

    If we end up taking part in the EU elections, there’s sadly a pretty good chance of ‘Tommy Robinson’ and a couple of his friends ending up as MEPs.

    Right now, there’s 350 or so MPs who want to revoke A50, but without their own fingerprints appearing on the decision.
    The BNP had two MEPs not so long ago! So extremists doing well under PR is nothing new. At a Westminster level under FPTP I am confident that the system will break any Brexit party or Tommy Robinson. Once revoke A50 has been implemented and the dust settles I think people will focus on other issues if not just for the reason of boredom! People are fickle.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Sandpit said:

    The forces that will be unleashed if we revoke won't go back in the bottle. PM Farsge taking us out acrimoniously and damaging the EU in the process is not out of the question. 17.4 million will vote to see their will imposed and a party offering Brexit without referendum and without a deal immediately will gather them in.

    If we end up taking part in the EU elections, there’s sadly a pretty good chance of ‘Tommy Robinson’ and a couple of his friends ending up as MEPs.

    Right now, there’s 350 or so MPs who want to revoke A50, but without their own fingerprints appearing on the decision.
    The BNP had two MEPs not so long ago! So extremists doing well under PR is nothing new. At a Westminster level under FPTP I am confident that the system will break any Brexit party or Tommy Robinson. Once revoke A50 has been implemented and the dust settles I think people will focus on other issues if not just for the reason of boredom! People are fickle.
    Indeed they did, the odious Nick Griffin and Andrew Brons. I think the precedent for a Westminster election is what happened in 2015 in Scotland - but with added sense of betrayal and anger at the established parties.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    3 line whip

    Wow Ministers including 4 Cabinet - Rudd, Perry, Stephen Hammond, Buckland, Clark, Mundell, Ellwood, Gauke, Richard Harrington, Burt, James, Milton - all abstained on the main motion

    I confess I cannot think of the last time the Chancellor of the Exchequer defied a three line whip. Possibly Ritchie in 1903?
    It's not the COE.
    OK, That's bad, but not as bad as I thought.

    If he turns on her, she really is finished.
    He just told her to speak to Jezza and get another Deal (#CCU)
    I gather a Whip defied the 3 line whip.
    I thought abstention can be forgiven
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,619
    GIN1138 said:

    The forces that will be unleashed if we revoke won't go back in the bottle. PM Farsge taking us out acrimoniously and damaging the EU in the process is not out of the question. 17.4 million will vote to see their will imposed and a party offering Brexit without referendum and without a deal immediately will gather them in.

    You think a general election platform of "Brexit all over again" will be a winner?
    I think a platform of Brexit on day one, no negotiation, no deal, no payment no need for referendum, deliver the Brexit you voted for as a direct appeal to the 17.4 million would attract massive support if Brexit is revoked.
    Yep. Conseravtives will collapse across the country.

    Labour... I'm not so sure what the northern heartlands would do. I could see Farage becoming LOTO to a Corbyn government with Con under 100 MPs.
    The existing parties in Westmnster will own every single bad thing that happens in the country going forward. Farage can suck air through teeth and say "Wouldn't have happened if we had stood up to the EU and planned for No Deal and left...." I fucking hate Farage, but the gurning twat will have a huge reinvigoration if our existing political class decide to can Brexit.

    I certainly won't enjoy his rise, but I will take a grim satisfaction at the raft of political careers cut short.



  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I don't know that I've seen a single piece of news about the Spring statement today.
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    3 line whip

    Wow Ministers including 4 Cabinet - Rudd, Perry, Stephen Hammond, Buckland, Clark, Mundell, Ellwood, Gauke, Richard Harrington, Burt, James, Milton - all abstained on the main motion

    I confess I cannot think of the last time the Chancellor of the Exchequer defied a three line whip. Possibly Ritchie in 1903?
    It's not the COE.
    OK, That's bad, but not as bad as I thought.

    If he turns on her, she really is finished.
    He just told her to speak to Jezza and get another Deal (#CCU)
    I gather a Whip defied the 3 line whip.
    I thought abstention can be forgiven
    From a whip?! You can't trust someone to do that job if he won't even follow the whip himself I'd think.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The forces that will be unleashed if we revoke won't go back in the bottle. PM Farsge taking us out acrimoniously and damaging the EU in the process is not out of the question. 17.4 million will vote to see their will imposed and a party offering Brexit without referendum and without a deal immediately will gather them in.

    If we end up taking part in the EU elections, there’s sadly a pretty good chance of ‘Tommy Robinson’ and a couple of his friends ending up as MEPs.

    Right now, there’s 350 or so MPs who want to revoke A50, but without their own fingerprints appearing on the decision.
    The BNP had two MEPs not so long ago! So extremists doing well under PR is nothing new. At a Westminster level under FPTP I am confident that the system will break any Brexit party or Tommy Robinson. Once revoke A50 has been implemented and the dust settles I think people will focus on other issues if not just for the reason of boredom! People are fickle.
    Indeed they did, the odious Nick Griffin and Andrew Brons. I think the precedent for a Westminster election is what happened in 2015 in Scotland - but with added sense of betrayal and anger at the established parties.
    Farage is not a new leader though, it has to be remembered that Sturgeon was in a honeymoon period as FM. The dynamics are very different for Farage who will be starting from scratch. He might have some members and some voters but the whole thing has a glass ceiling on it. A vocal few Brexiteers should not be confused with a mass movement. Brexit will fail because it cannot deliver the promise without significant costs. I am surprised that Brexiteers have not been pinned down and relentlessly pounded into submission as their vision has turned out to be a nightmare!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Ali Grantham’s post is vile

    But really - I’m going to run to your boss and try to get you sacked? WTF does that achieve?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    Fenster said:

    I'm nearly 46, and for the first time in my life I'm seriously embarrassed by my nation. The rest of the world must be looking at us and thinking: "What the f**k are they doing," and "What a load of clueless f**kwits."

    Everyone says what they're against, what they hate, and too few people saying what they're for. Idealism and opportunism trumps compromise and realism.

    We couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery, and the world knows it because they can see us in the brewery pissing into the vats, failing to tap the barrels and holding glasses upside down whilst we wonder why they won't hold any liquid.

    I bet there are a lot of intelligent people living around the world in less polished democracies than ours wishing they lived under such a virile, functioning legislature.
    Better this than the ram-roading of the Blair years.
    No. Just no.

    There is plenty of reasons to criticise Blair's governments - just as there are any government - reasonably or unreasonably. But it generally functioned. Yes, there were problems: Iraq, obviously, and the spending.

    But we currently have a government that is paralysed - Brexit is the parasitic wasp and the government the helpless cockroach. It's a zombie legislature. There's stuff the government needs to be doing and it isn't doing them, because Brexit consumes everything.

    Worse, there's no obvious way out of this mess, even in the medium term. Even if May;s deal passes, we've got years of negotiating ahead. And we're not proving good at that, even amongst ourselves.

    How can we sell ourselves around the world as the serious, helpful friend we want to be when all they see are a bunch of clowns in a boxing ring kicking each other in the knackers?
    I think the Commons fairly accurately represents the electorate. Divided, contradictory, quixotic, confused, partisan and promoting agendas with a subtext significantly different to the overt text.

    Sure it is shit with no good outcome, but that is where we are as a country, like it or not.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    Streeter said:

    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:
    Had Spelman not passed then there would not have been a whip so they'd have been free to vote against No Deal. Instead, it was whipped and the likes of Rudd had to go against the government.
    Yvette Cooper would make a fine LOTO.
    Do you prefer coffee or tea Yvette.

    "Well they both have their merits"
    :+1:
This discussion has been closed.