politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so MPs move on to vote against leaving the EU with no deal
So after last night’s excitement today’s focus is a new Commons vote at 7pm on ruling out the UK leaving the EU with no deal. Then we’ll get tomorrow’s Article 50 extension move.
So when will Bercow dash May's hopes of MV3? If he thinks an extension and all that will follow is on the cards he will be desperate to prevent even the slim chance the Commons might change its mind.
May should take up Jezza's offer on customs etc. I think that plays out better for the govt than a second vote
As Labour MPs, even ones who supposedly could accept the deal, refuse to do so because it is a Tory government, so too most Tories won't back May on taking up that offer even if she were inclined to do so, because it is a Labour offer.
May should take up Jezza's offer on customs etc. I think that plays out better for the govt than a second vote
If we have to leave, surely you are right. But how humiliating for May to leave office (for that is what would follow) trashing three years' work and having to sign up for Corbyn's plan.
I have much more respect for ardent Brexiters than Nicky Morgan . Clearly ditched any principles she had and is now fawning over the ERG in an effort to get a cabinet job after May goes.
Cabinet job? She wants to be the one handing them out.
May should take up Jezza's offer on customs etc. I think that plays out better for the govt than a second vote
As Labour MPs, even ones who supposedly could accept the deal, refuse to do so because it is a Tory government, so too most Tories won't back May on taking up that offer even if she were inclined to do so, because it is a Labour offer.
Corbyn and May can whip a majority between themselves, surely lol
Caroline Lucas speaking - for some reason I am instinctively wary when people start moaning about needing a 'new social contract'. I have this suspicion it doesn't mean anything other than 'I should get the political things I want'.
I have much more respect for ardent Brexiters than Nicky Morgan . Clearly ditched any principles she had and is now fawning over the ERG in an effort to get a cabinet job after May goes.
Cabinet job? She wants to be the one handing them out.
Morgan is my MP. She only does what is best for Nicky Morgan.
May should take up Jezza's offer on customs etc. I think that plays out better for the govt than a second vote
I think that offer has expired now - partly because the one thing the Tiggers succeeded in was giving the "People's Vote" extremists within the PLP the upper-hand, but also because May's shown herself to be so untrustworthy that I doubt the Labour front-bench would (or should) trust May to stick to a commitment to negotiate a customs union.
I have much more respect for ardent Brexiters than Nicky Morgan . Clearly ditched any principles she had and is now fawning over the ERG in an effort to get a cabinet job after May goes.
Cabinet job? She wants to be the one handing them out.
Morgan is my MP. She only does what is best for Nicky Morgan.
A group of MPs is planning to force indicative votes in parliament on a series of Brexit options, including a second referendum and a softer departure, as several cabinet ministers suggested it could be the only way to resolve the political impasse.
If MPs vote down the possibility of a no-deal Brexit on Wednesday night, they will vote on Thursday on whether to seek an extension to article 50. Efforts are under way to persuade Theresa May to announce plans then to hold debates on Brexit options the following week in order to determine a new path for parliament during a short extension.
Sandbach another MP making the point that voting for the government's deal twice is respect enough for the referendum result.
More and more people on the deal side are trying to dissuade the government from trying MV3 it seems - essentially saying don't count on new switchers to get it over the line, I'm done.
May should take up Jezza's offer on customs etc. I think that plays out better for the govt than a second vote
I think that offer has expired now - partly because the one thing the Tiggers succeeded in was giving the "People's Vote" extremists within the PLP the upper-hand, but also because May's shown herself to be so untrustworthy that I doubt the Labour front-bench would (or should) trust May to stick to a commitment to negotiate a customs union.
Long Bailey, Gardiner and Corbyn are all still quite Labour brexit though
I am lazy. Which amendments are being voted on by tonight's shitshow?
Malthouse and Spelman - Unicorn and Really really no deal I think they are termed.
I thought that was an afternoon ITV drama starring Suranne Jones and Sarah Parish. Together they juggle home lives and solving crime. Tonights episode: Malthouse is convinced the murderer is DS Brackman but Spelman is distracted by her daughter's decision to not go to Uni. Followed by Extreme Measures, with Trevor Eve, Friday at 9, BBC 1.
A group of MPs is planning to force indicative votes in parliament on a series of Brexit options, including a second referendum and a softer departure, as several cabinet ministers suggested it could be the only way to resolve the political impasse.
If MPs vote down the possibility of a no-deal Brexit on Wednesday night, they will vote on Thursday on whether to seek an extension to article 50. Efforts are under way to persuade Theresa May to announce plans then to hold debates on Brexit options the following week in order to determine a new path for parliament during a short extension.
Indicative votes is the closest to a way forward in advance of an extension that we may have, but my gods does there need to debate? They mention all the various other options in the debates they've had for 6 months.
May should take up Jezza's offer on customs etc. I think that plays out better for the govt than a second vote
I think that offer has expired now - partly because the one thing the Tiggers succeeded in was giving the "People's Vote" extremists within the PLP the upper-hand, but also because May's shown herself to be so untrustworthy that I doubt the Labour front-bench would (or should) trust May to stick to a commitment to negotiate a customs union.
Long Bailey, Gardiner and Corbyn are all still quite Labour brexit though
Yeah, and also, by all accounts (well, mostly Stephen Bush's accounts), a lot of Corbyn's advisers were keen to get Brexit "boxed off" asap, so that politics could return to the issues they felt they could score more points on. So I think Corbyn's offer to work with May on a "Labour-friendly" Brexit was genuine. But it's much too late now, the window closed weeks if not months ago.
I am lazy. Which amendments are being voted on by tonight's shitshow?
Malthouse and Spelman - Unicorn and Really really no deal I think they are termed.
I thought that was an afternoon ITV drama starring Suranne Jones and Sarah Parish. Together they juggle home lives and solving crime. Tonights episode: Malthouse is convinced the murderer is DS Brackman but Spelman is distracted by her daughter's decision to not go to Uni. Followed by Extreme Measures, with Trevor Eve, Friday at 9, BBC 1.
(Thank you kindly, by the way... )
You might want to pitch that to a producer before someone steals it. It'll be the next Rizzoli and Isles
Sandbach another MP making the point that voting for the government's deal twice is respect enough for the referendum result.
More and more people on the deal side are trying to dissuade the government from trying MV3 it seems - essentially saying don't count on new switchers to get it over the line, I'm done.
Bottom line is that the ERG leavers had their chance and have blown it.
That puts the whole question of Brexit (being trashed in the Commons with almost every speech) back on the table.
Sandbach another MP making the point that voting for the government's deal twice is respect enough for the referendum result.
More and more people on the deal side are trying to dissuade the government from trying MV3 it seems - essentially saying don't count on new switchers to get it over the line, I'm done.
Bottom line is that the ERG leavers had their chance and have blown it.
That puts the whole question of Brexit (being trashed in the Commons with almost every speech) back on the table.
I struggle with how some of the more passionate ones who think any Brexit would be terrible can not support revocation. Yes, referendum and all that, but if any Brexit is as bad as they say, and they don't feel bound by the first referendum, why should they risk any Brexit in a second? It might be the best they can hope for, but I don't know that it is logically coherent to say any Brexit is a tragedy but that it'll be ok if the public vote for it...the second time. They should surely at least want to revoke.
Those who want a vote to prevent no deal is more reasonable.
And the accepted terminology now is ERG Remainers. People who fight against Brexit that hard deserve the label.
Tomorrow's debate - particularly over the length of extension we will be asking for - will be more critical than today's. Today's is just trashing the idea that Brexit had anything positive to offer our country.
Sandbach another MP making the point that voting for the government's deal twice is respect enough for the referendum result.
More and more people on the deal side are trying to dissuade the government from trying MV3 it seems - essentially saying don't count on new switchers to get it over the line, I'm done.
Bottom line is that the ERG leavers had their chance and have blown it.
That puts the whole question of Brexit (being trashed in the Commons with almost every speech) back on the table.
I struggle with how some of the more passionate ones who think any Brexit would be terrible can not support revocation. Yes, referendum and all that, but if any Brexit is as bad as they say, and they don't feel bound by the first referendum, why should they risk any Brexit in a second? It might be the best they can hope for, but I don't know that it is logically coherent to say any Brexit is a tragedy but that it'll be ok if the public vote for it...the second time.
Those who want a vote to prevent no deal is more reasonable.
The right answer for the country is obviously revocation. The question is how to get there with democratic endorsement.
Sandbach another MP making the point that voting for the government's deal twice is respect enough for the referendum result.
More and more people on the deal side are trying to dissuade the government from trying MV3 it seems - essentially saying don't count on new switchers to get it over the line, I'm done.
Bottom line is that the ERG leavers had their chance and have blown it.
That puts the whole question of Brexit (being trashed in the Commons with almost every speech) back on the table.
I struggle with how some of the more passionate ones who think any Brexit would be terrible can not support revocation. Yes, referendum and all that, but if any Brexit is as bad as they say, and they don't feel bound by the first referendum, why should they risk any Brexit in a second? It might be the best they can hope for, but I don't know that it is logically coherent to say any Brexit is a tragedy but that it'll be ok if the public vote for it...the second time. They should surely at least want to revoke.
Those who want a vote to prevent no deal is more reasonable.
And the accepted terminology now is ERG Remainers. People who fight against Brexit that hard deserve the label.
The new terminology is a bit like the Sinn Fein/IRA tag that unionists in Northern Ireland use!
Sandbach another MP making the point that voting for the government's deal twice is respect enough for the referendum result.
More and more people on the deal side are trying to dissuade the government from trying MV3 it seems - essentially saying don't count on new switchers to get it over the line, I'm done.
Bottom line is that the ERG leavers had their chance and have blown it.
That puts the whole question of Brexit (being trashed in the Commons with almost every speech) back on the table.
I struggle with how some of the more passionate ones who think any Brexit would be terrible can not support revocation. Yes, referendum and all that, but if any Brexit is as bad as they say, and they don't feel bound by the first referendum, why should they risk any Brexit in a second? It might be the best they can hope for, but I don't know that it is logically coherent to say any Brexit is a tragedy but that it'll be ok if the public vote for it...the second time.
Those who want a vote to prevent no deal is more reasonable.
The right answer for the country is obviously revocation. The question is how to get there with democratic endorsement.
But that is not the question. Democratic endorsement is politically necessary for many, but people have quit their parties over this, they talk in apocalyptic terms about what Brexit will do to the country. If it is that bad, then revocation without such democratic cover is the position they should admit they think we need. Face the consequences for saying they cannot risk the public allowing Brexit because it is just too bad for the country.
Yes they would not get that through the House. But that even most of those most damning about Brexit won't even try to do that just makes me think that implicitly they don't Brexit is as bad as they say.
They had run out of countries that they could fly them to.
Didn't stop them using it for internal flights.
What I don't get is why they weren't grounded after the LionAir crash. It should have been obvious even to somebody as thick as a Boeing executive that something was out of place then. And if that had happened these people in Ethiopia wouldn't have died.
They had run out of countries that they could fly them to.
Didn't stop them using it for internal flights.
What I don't get is why they weren't grounded after the LionAir crash. It should have been obvious even to somebody as thick as a Boeing executive that something was out of place then. And if that had happened these people in Ethiopia wouldn't have died.
Voting to extend is all very well but haven't they heard the EU say that Britain has to provide a reasoned justification as to what the extension is going to be for.
Buggering about some more, I'm guessing, will not pass the EU's reasoned justification test.
Sandbach another MP making the point that voting for the government's deal twice is respect enough for the referendum result.
More and more people on the deal side are trying to dissuade the government from trying MV3 it seems - essentially saying don't count on new switchers to get it over the line, I'm done.
Bottom line is that the ERG leavers had their chance and have blown it.
That puts the whole question of Brexit (being trashed in the Commons with almost every speech) back on the table.
I struggle with how some of the more passionate ones who think any Brexit would be terrible can not support revocation. Yes, referendum and all that, but if any Brexit is as bad as they say, and they don't feel bound by the first referendum, why should they risk any Brexit in a second? It might be the best they can hope for, but I don't know that it is logically coherent to say any Brexit is a tragedy but that it'll be ok if the public vote for it...the second time.
Those who want a vote to prevent no deal is more reasonable.
The right answer for the country is obviously revocation. The question is how to get there with democratic endorsement.
But that is not the question. Democratic endorsement is politically necessary for many, but people have quit their parties over this, they talk in apocalyptic terms about what Brexit will do to the country. If it is that bad, then revocation without such democratic cover is the position they should admit they think we need. Face the consequences for saying they cannot risk the public allowing Brexit because it is just too bad for the country.
Yes they would not get that through the House. But that even most of those most damning about Brexit won't even try to do that just makes me think that implicitly they don't Brexit is as bad as they say.
Yes, we are in need of political leadership and for someone to tell us some hard truths. Reasons why this isn't happening are already familiar to most PB'ers.
They had run out of countries that they could fly them to.
Didn't stop them using it for internal flights.
What I don't get is why they weren't grounded after the LionAir crash. It should have been obvious even to somebody as thick as a Boeing executive that something was out of place then. And if that had happened these people in Ethiopia wouldn't have died.
Once is misfortune, twice...
An aircraft with a computer that actively tries to crash it (and succeeds) is not a misfortune, it's a fecking menace.
Voting to extend is all very well but haven't they heard the EU say that Britain has to provide a reasoned justification as to what the extension is going to be for.
Buggering about some more, I'm guessing, will not pass the EU's reasoned justification test.
Which is why the indicative vote plan, repeated until something has a majority (besides just 'extension just because') surely has to be the way forward. They can faff about with agreeing to an extension in principle, and no doubt they''ll argue about the length of it as a proxy debate for their preferred options (the shorter the proposal the more someone will back MV3 or no deal presumably, the longer the more they want revocation), but their aversion to saying 'yes' to things is really quite infuriating.
The big story is that the government has already spent £4,200,000,000 of our tax income on preparing for the no deal scenario that Parliament is about to rule out of question.
Sandbach another MP making the point that voting for the government's deal twice is respect enough for the referendum result.
More and more people on the deal side are trying to dissuade the government from trying MV3 it seems - essentially saying don't count on new switchers to get it over the line, I'm done.
Bottom line is that the ERG leavers had their chance and have blown it.
That puts the whole question of Brexit (being trashed in the Commons with almost every speech) back on the table.
I struggle with how some of the more passionate ones who think any Brexit would be terrible can not support revocation. Yes, referendum and all that, but if any Brexit is as bad as they say, and they don't feel bound by the first referendum, why should they risk any Brexit in a second? It might be the best they can hope for, but I don't know that it is logically coherent to say any Brexit is a tragedy but that it'll be ok if the public vote for it...the second time.
Those who want a vote to prevent no deal is more reasonable.
The right answer for the country is obviously revocation. The question is how to get there with democratic endorsement.
The question everyone is currently asking is how do I get there without getting the blame.
The big story is that the government has already spent £4,200,000,000 of our tax income on preparing for the no deal scenario that Parliament is about to rule out of question.
That's not really a big story despite the huge sum of money. As the default legal option it would be even more reckless than they've already been to spend nothing just assuming MPs would eventually rule it out.
Sandbach another MP making the point that voting for the government's deal twice is respect enough for the referendum result.
More and more people on the deal side are trying to dissuade the government from trying MV3 it seems - essentially saying don't count on new switchers to get it over the line, I'm done.
Bottom line is that the ERG leavers had their chance and have blown it.
That puts the whole question of Brexit (being trashed in the Commons with almost every speech) back on the table.
I struggle with how some of the more passionate ones who think any Brexit would be terrible can not support revocation. Yes, referendum and all that, but if any Brexit is as bad as they say, and they don't feel bound by the first referendum, why should they risk any Brexit in a second? It might be the best they can hope for, but I don't know that it is logically coherent to say any Brexit is a tragedy but that it'll be ok if the public vote for it...the second time.
Those who want a vote to prevent no deal is more reasonable.
The right answer for the country is obviously revocation. The question is how to get there with democratic endorsement.
The question is how to get there at the same time as passing the buck.
If you think the Withdrawal Agreement is so bad that you cannot vote for it, you have no business putting it to the public.
The big story is that the government has already spent £4,200,000,000 of our tax income on preparing for the no deal scenario that Parliament is about to rule out of question.
Yes but the vote itself tonight does not invalidate that money being spent, until such times as we work out what we're going to do instead of the no-deal default position.
Voting to extend is all very well but haven't they heard the EU say that Britain has to provide a reasoned justification as to what the extension is going to be for.
Buggering about some more, I'm guessing, will not pass the EU's reasoned justification test.
Voting to extend is all very well but haven't they heard the EU say that Britain has to provide a reasoned justification as to what the extension is going to be for.
Buggering about some more, I'm guessing, will not pass the EU's reasoned justification test.
True but how do we get Parliament to make any decision in the time left. I suspect we end up with Revoke, new Tory leader and a General Election almost be default..
Mind you that could equally be No Deal, 6 months of increasing pain, a new Tory Leader and a General election with Corbyn winning 400 seats.
The big story is that the government has already spent £4,200,000,000 of our tax income on preparing for the no deal scenario that Parliament is about to rule out of question.
Sandbach another MP making the point that voting for the government's deal twice is respect enough for the referendum result.
More and more people on the deal side are trying to dissuade the government from trying MV3 it seems - essentially saying don't count on new switchers to get it over the line, I'm done.
Bottom line is that the ERG leavers had their chance and have blown it.
That puts the whole question of Brexit (being trashed in the Commons with almost every speech) back on the table.
I struggle with how some of the more passionate ones who think any Brexit would be terrible can not support revocation. Yes, referendum and all that, but if any Brexit is as bad as they say, and they don't feel bound by the first referendum, why should they risk any Brexit in a second? It might be the best they can hope for, but I don't know that it is logically coherent to say any Brexit is a tragedy but that it'll be ok if the public vote for it...the second time.
Those who want a vote to prevent no deal is more reasonable.
The right answer for the country is obviously revocation. The question is how to get there with democratic endorsement.
You can't. If you revoke you have decided democracy no longer matters. I am sure many politicians, not least Corbyn, are going to be very happy with that precedent.
This is the sort of thing that might increase Trump's popularity with voters. I'm not sure most other presidents would have done the same thing, they would have just gone along with the decision of the official air authority.
Voting to extend is all very well but haven't they heard the EU say that Britain has to provide a reasoned justification as to what the extension is going to be for.
Buggering about some more, I'm guessing, will not pass the EU's reasoned justification test.
True but how do we get Parliament to make any decision in the time left. I suspect we end up with Revoke, new Tory leader and a General Election almost be default..
Mind you that could equally be No Deal, 6 months of increasing pain, a new Tory Leader and a General election with Corbyn winning 400 seats.
Sandbach another MP making the point that voting for the government's deal twice is respect enough for the referendum result.
More and more people on the deal side are trying to dissuade the government from trying MV3 it seems - essentially saying don't count on new switchers to get it over the line, I'm done.
Bottom line is that the ERG leavers had their chance and have blown it.
That puts the whole question of Brexit (being trashed in the Commons with almost every speech) back on the table.
I struggle with how some of the more passionate ones who think any Brexit would be terrible can not support revocation. Yes, referendum and all that, but if any Brexit is as bad as they say, and they don't feel bound by the first referendum, why should they risk any Brexit in a second? It might be the best they can hope for, but I don't know that it is logically coherent to say any Brexit is a tragedy but that it'll be ok if the public vote for it...the second time.
Those who want a vote to prevent no deal is more reasonable.
The right answer for the country is obviously revocation. The question is how to get there with democratic endorsement.
The question everyone is currently asking is how do I get there without getting the blame.
Might be a little unfair to them but don't the DUP have the perfect qualifications for scapegoats?
Mr Pennycook accuses the government of "endlessly repeating the nonsensical mantra that no deal is better than a bad deal".
That, he argues, "desensitised many people in this country to the risks involved".
I certainly hope no one else ever endlessly repeats nonsensical mantras, like 'For the many not the few'.
Or Brexit Means Brexit?
That one was even worse, yes.
Strong And Stable Leadership (In The National Interest) has to be the winner, surely?
That actually means something even if it was not true though (in fairness 'for the many not the few' means about as much and is a snappy slogan even if everyone says they are for the many). Brexit means Brexit could mean pretty much anything though.
Mr Pennycook accuses the government of "endlessly repeating the nonsensical mantra that no deal is better than a bad deal".
That, he argues, "desensitised many people in this country to the risks involved".
I certainly hope no one else ever endlessly repeats nonsensical mantras, like 'For the many not the few'.
Or Brexit Means Brexit?
That one was even worse, yes.
Strong And Stable Leadership (In The National Interest) has to be the winner, surely?
Aren't 'strong and stable' and 'for the many not the few' just slogans whereas 'no deal is better than a bad deal' is actually something of a policy position, maybe a slogan as well....
His arguments about desensitising the country can't really apply to the slogans because they aren't really policy positions.
Comments
If MPs vote down the possibility of a no-deal Brexit on Wednesday night, they will vote on Thursday on whether to seek an extension to article 50. Efforts are under way to persuade Theresa May to announce plans then to hold debates on Brexit options the following week in order to determine a new path for parliament during a short extension.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/13/group-of-mps-plan-to-force-indicative-votes-on-brexit-options
(Thank you kindly, by the way... )
That puts the whole question of Brexit (being trashed in the Commons with almost every speech) back on the table.
https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/boeing-737-max-8-ethiopia-airlines-crash/h_90b712a98f5346d3ffddcbb61990aa40
Not before bloody time...
Those who want a vote to prevent no deal is more reasonable.
And the accepted terminology now is ERG Remainers. People who fight against Brexit that hard deserve the label.
turns off BBC Parliament
The new terminology is a bit like the Sinn Fein/IRA tag that unionists in Northern Ireland use!
Yes they would not get that through the House. But that even most of those most damning about Brexit won't even try to do that just makes me think that implicitly they don't Brexit is as bad as they say.
What I don't get is why they weren't grounded after the LionAir crash. It should have been obvious even to somebody as thick as a Boeing executive that something was out of place then. And if that had happened these people in Ethiopia wouldn't have died.
Pennycook (a boy trying to do a man's job) followed Baron.
And Corbyn would if he ever got into power.
I have a theory that it's probably something to do with penis length, or lack thereof.
Buggering about some more, I'm guessing, will not pass the EU's reasoned justification test.
If you think the Withdrawal Agreement is so bad that you cannot vote for it, you have no business putting it to the public.
That, he argues, "desensitised many people in this country to the risks involved".
I certainly hope no one else ever endlessly repeats nonsensical mantras, like 'For the many not the few'.
Mind you that could equally be No Deal, 6 months of increasing pain, a new Tory Leader and a General election with Corbyn winning 400 seats.
This completely contradicts what the EU were saying publicly yesterday.
This is the moment Brexit dies.
https://twitter.com/heidiallen75/status/1105902971030786050
It implies there was a time the disagraced national security risk had 'it.'
And just in time to get "No Deal" off the table!
Edit/division
His arguments about desensitising the country can't really apply to the slogans because they aren't really policy positions.