First? I highly doubt this will be in operation by 2020, 2024 as a minimum as I remember reading about this having 100+ electoral votes back in 2010 when I did a report on it.
Is this the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact? If so, it will need some states which vote Republican to join it before it stands a chance of reaching 270, and the GOP have far too many statehouses for that to be plausible. In theory red states could join this out of principle, but the truth is both sides view this largely through partisan eyes (which isn't to say neither side is right or wrong).
First? I highly doubt this will be in operation by 2020, 2024 as a minimum as I remember reading about this having 100+ electoral votes back in 2010 when I did a report on it.
I agree; 2024 is far more realistic as the earliest date this might happen.
That said, Trump will be defeated by a large popular vote majority in 2020 (fingers Xed), so Mike's headline may well be correct anyway.
Is this the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact? If so, it will need some states which vote Republican to join it before it stands a chance of reaching 270, and the GOP have far too many statehouses for that to be plausible. In theory red states could join this out of principle, but the truth is both sides view this largely through partisan eyes (which isn't to say neither side is right or wrong).
The best chance of it happening is shortly after a future Presidential election which the Republicans win in the popular vote, but lose in the Electoral College, if the Republicans become convinced that is likely to happen to them again, and before the blue states can back out.
This is perhaps possible around about the time that Texas flips to leaning blue, as that would add a large does of inefficient votes to the Republican tally - but I've no idea how long it would take for that trend to reach that point.
Trump would only be the second POTUS to be re-elected after winning first time out while losing the popular vote (GWB the first with only an 0.5% difference between him and Gore). Even with all other instances being in the 19thC, it seems quite a stat to beat even with the current system (or else the US system is truly fcuked).
Can't see this happening. Are you really going to trust Alabama to count fairly?
Well, one obvious follow-on is that when you move from a system of electing state delegates to an electoral college, elected by the states own electoral processes, to a Federal vote total, then it increases the justification for Federal oversight or control of the voting process.
That might be another reason for some states to be wary of it.
Can't see this happening. Are you really going to trust Alabama to count fairly?
Well, one obvious follow-on is that when you move from a system of electing state delegates to an electoral college, elected by the states own electoral processes, to a Federal vote total, then it increases the justification for Federal oversight or control of the voting process.
That might be another reason for some states to be wary of it.
But this is the point, isn't it? As I understand it, for it to become a straightforward popular vote, it would need 2/3 of states to agree to a change in the constitution (someone please correct me if I have got this wrong). This is a way of doing it by the back door. But as long as it's still officially done at state level, the states will be responsible for declaring votes in their state.
The Democrats need to rebuild support in a whole load of states where they have been in opposition for long periods. On the one hand, Donald Trump is helping them do that. On the other, the local Republicans in some states have been astoundingly underhand in the steps that they are taking to thwart the majority when it is not Republican.
Love the desperation from Sky News and Scott P to try and find any kind of bad news and treating something that might happen as something that is happening. Desperate times for the sky will fall in FBPE crowd as Brexit draws closer.
They should ditch the electoral college and switch to the alternative vote, or instant run off voting as they call it.
Agreed, though I think we should perhaps fix our own absurd system of representation before advising the Americans, and for that matter, other Europeans.
They should ditch the electoral college and switch to the alternative vote, or instant run off voting as they call it.
Agreed, though I think we should perhaps fix our own absurd system of representation before advising the Americans, and for that matter, other Europeans.
The irony being that it is thanks to us that Ireland has STV and Germany has AMS. Vested interest prevents us from taking our own advice.
Edited extra bit: (If you're wondering, yes, I do know the origin of fish and chips...).
You know who else liked fish and chips...
Introduced by Jewish immigrants unless Jamie Oliver has misled me. Coincidentally, I shall be enjoying fish and chips every day next week as part of my Cheltenham ritual.
Spicy chicken basically. Popular with yoof for the past 10 years or so, and MOR politicians.
As I said on the earlier thread, Nando's is another high street chain that industrialises cruelty by failing to offer free range chicken. We really need to end battery farming and, if it means eating less chicken (and less meat), then so much to the better. We eat too much meat anyway.
Can't see this happening. Are you really going to trust Alabama to count fairly?
Well, one obvious follow-on is that when you move from a system of electing state delegates to an electoral college, elected by the states own electoral processes, to a Federal vote total, then it increases the justification for Federal oversight or control of the voting process.
That might be another reason for some states to be wary of it.
But this is the point, isn't it? As I understand it, for it to become a straightforward popular vote, it would need 2/3 of states to agree to a change in the constitution (someone please correct me if I have got this wrong). This is a way of doing it by the back door. But as long as it's still officially done at state level, the states will be responsible for declaring votes in their state.
Yes on day one.
There would be problems in practice and that would encourage further reform.
Edited extra bit: (If you're wondering, yes, I do know the origin of fish and chips...).
You know who else liked fish and chips...
Introduced by Jewish immigrants unless Jamie Oliver has misled me. Coincidentally, I shall be enjoying fish and chips every day next week as part of my Cheltenham ritual.
Battered fish goes back at least as far as 13thC Iberian Arabs, though.
(And the Portugese introduced tempura to Japan, I believe.)
Spicy chicken basically. Popular with yoof for the past 10 years or so, and MOR politicians.
As I said on the earlier thread, Nando's is another high street chain that industrialises cruelty by failing to offer free range chicken. We really need to end battery farming and, if it means eating less chicken (and less meat), then so much to the better. We eat too much meat anyway.
I stopped buying cooked chicken from Sainsbury's when they dropped the "high welfare" option. Perhaps if they'd called it "tastes less like cardboard smeared with spicy gloop" it would have sold more.
By the way, on the hot issue of Giraffe. Went once, to the branch in Chiswick (I doubt it is still there). It was awful – full of screaming children. The food was massively overpriced and utterly mundane. If it's USP was "appealing to families and fussy eaters" it deserves to go: only in Britain would we feed children bland food from birth so they grow up being averse to flavour. Children should not be given separate diets and most children's menus are utter garbage.
Can't see this happening. Are you really going to trust Alabama to count fairly?
Well, one obvious follow-on is that when you move from a system of electing state delegates to an electoral college, elected by the states own electoral processes, to a Federal vote total, then it increases the justification for Federal oversight or control of the voting process.
That might be another reason for some states to be wary of it.
But this is the point, isn't it? As I understand it, for it to become a straightforward popular vote, it would need 2/3 of states to agree to a change in the constitution (someone please correct me if I have got this wrong). This is a way of doing it by the back door. But as long as it's still officially done at state level, the states will be responsible for declaring votes in their state.
Yes on day one.
There would be problems in practice and that would encourage further reform.
Yes, waiting two weeks to see whether California can be arsed to count their votes to find out if they have enough to get the Democrat over the line won't be very edifying.
Spicy chicken basically. Popular with yoof for the past 10 years or so, and MOR politicians.
As I said on the earlier thread, Nando's is another high street chain that industrialises cruelty by failing to offer free range chicken. We really need to end battery farming and, if it means eating less chicken (and less meat), then so much to the better. We eat too much meat anyway.
I stopped buying cooked chicken from Sainsbury's when they dropped the "high welfare" option. Perhaps if they'd called it "tastes less like cardboard smeared with spicy gloop" it would have sold more.
A bizarre move from Sainsbury's – there is actually a fairly high awareness of these issues among the public.
OT knife attacks (or murders as we used to call them) were all over the front pages today.
This might have political fallout. Let's see if "the Sajid" will reverse Theresa May's 20,000 police cuts or at least establish a judge-led enquiry. Next PM punters will be watching!
CFOs like to have numbers to fill in their spreadsheets. Right now, there are simply a lot of "unknowns" in the UK, and so it's hard to be able to make sensible forecasts.
This will all get sorted out in time, but right now it's a definite drag.
On topic, surely the answer is to split the EC votes for each state in line with the proportions of votes cast for each party, as , IIRC, Maine does. The idea of an electoral college in a country with some very populous and some very thinly populated states is reasonably sound but the idea of suggesting that Texas is all Rep and California all Dem is as daft as FPTP is here, and has similar consequences.
The TIG can only afford a few more from the Tory party . Otherwise May will call an election but of course the Tories don’t want her to fight one .
A max of three Tories moving would be just enough to cause panic in the government but not enough for them to lose their working majority .
I think matters could come to a head next week depending on the whip arrangements . If Mays deal goes down what next .
A free vote on the no deal and extension would be the safest route . If the government whipped to support no deal the Tories would implode , if they whip against no deal the ERG will implode .
An interesting side story what does May vote for . Can she avoid the vote because coming down on one side or the other is going to cause big problems for her.
Spicy chicken basically. Popular with yoof for the past 10 years or so, and MOR politicians.
As I said on the earlier thread, Nando's is another high street chain that industrialises cruelty by failing to offer free range chicken. We really need to end battery farming and, if it means eating less chicken (and less meat), then so much to the better. We eat too much meat anyway.
I stopped buying cooked chicken from Sainsbury's when they dropped the "high welfare" option. Perhaps if they'd called it "tastes less like cardboard smeared with spicy gloop" it would have sold more.
A bizarre move from Sainsbury's – there is actually a fairly high awareness of these issues among the public.
The same public that was happy enough eating Tesco's horseburgers until it was pointed out to them what they contained?
Or are you saying that acted as some sort of catalyst for much greater awareness; because if so I haven't seen much evidence of it (outside certain hipster-y areas of London) where it existed previously.
Although, when I went with a group of birders to Arizona, we did clear out the stock of cooked food at a KFC (who were just about to close) for ten bucks.
Why is Hickenlooper at significantly longer odds than Tulsi Gabbard ?
Worth noting that it looks like Colorado will be on Super Tuesday, with Texas and California. This means Hickenlooper will likely be one of five candidates with state wins by March 3rd - assuming Beto stand in (and wins) Texas.
If he can put in place a decent number of second/third places in other states, that puts him in quite a good position.
On topic, surely the answer is to split the EC votes for each state in line with the proportions of votes cast for each party, as , IIRC, Maine does. The idea of an electoral college in a country with some very populous and some very thinly populated states is reasonably sound but the idea of suggesting that Texas is all Rep and California all Dem is as daft as FPTP is here, and has similar consequences.
Maine and Nebraska don't split by party vote but by Congressional district. This means one party can still win all the votes but sometimes they split (last time in Maine, Trump won CD2, and Hillary CD 1 and statewide so Maine split 3-1 for Hilary)
This shows how far Brexit has slipped from expectations in the months following the referendum.
Strange. In all the stuff I've read about Brexit, I've never heard anyone suggest that the other nations of the world would rise up against the EU if we had to leave the Single Market. Surely the author just dreamed up the notion for it never to be visited again.
Just up on the Guardian's site 'A charity run by Prince Charles received donations from an offshore company that was used to funnel vast amounts of cash from Russia in a scheme that is under investigation by prosecutors, the Guardian can reveal.'
It goes on 'There is no suggestion that end recipients of funds were aware of the original source of the money, which arrived via a disguised route. However, the documents indicate that criminal and legitimate money may have been mixed together, making it impossible to trace the original source, before passing through screen companies into the global banking system.'
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact
That said, Trump will be defeated by a large popular vote majority in 2020 (fingers Xed), so Mike's headline may well be correct anyway.
And there are compelling reasons for the change (unless you don't believe democracy particularly important):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/02/26/popular-vote-could-decide-presidential-election-if-these-states-get-their-way/
i particularly enjoyed Owen Jones getting pwned by James Cleverly.
PS, I like your new avatar!
#BigotedSouthernJokes
This is perhaps possible around about the time that Texas flips to leaning blue, as that would add a large does of inefficient votes to the Republican tally - but I've no idea how long it would take for that trend to reach that point.
That might be another reason for some states to be wary of it.
We kept being told that Japanese disinvestment is due to other reasons.
Certainly nothing to do with Brexit.
"That’s hard to say." No
Both are appalling.
Oh and Ed's Diner which was a huge novelty and exciting when it came out but has now dissolved into general chaindom.
Just see how many like pizzas with pineapples on them.
Morris Dancer endorses fish and chips, not foreignist fast food dens of depravity.
Edited extra bit: (If you're wondering, yes, I do know the origin of fish and chips...).
Which incidentally is further proof that Scotland isn't fit to be an independent nation.
Have I missed anything?
I once won £120 in a Nando's by downing a pint of garlic and chilli sauce. Could taste it for days...
https://twitter.com/marinamaral2/status/1102575190716936192
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1102567832498421760
There would be problems in practice and that would encourage further reform.
(And the Portugese introduced tempura to Japan, I believe.)
Music for my jilted generation, first concert I ever went to aged 15 in 1993. RIP.
This might have political fallout. Let's see if "the Sajid" will reverse Theresa May's 20,000 police cuts or at least establish a judge-led enquiry. Next PM punters will be watching!
I’m sure he wouldn’t have wanted more than a brief tear to be shed, before everyone goes back to the party.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=YV78vobCyIo
This will all get sorted out in time, but right now it's a definite drag.
A max of three Tories moving would be just enough to cause panic in the government but not enough for them to lose their working majority .
I think matters could come to a head next week depending on the whip arrangements . If Mays deal goes down what next .
A free vote on the no deal and extension would be the safest route . If the government whipped to support no deal the Tories would implode , if they whip against no deal the ERG will implode .
An interesting side story what does May vote for . Can she avoid the vote because coming down on one side or the other is going to cause big problems for her.
Or are you saying that acted as some sort of catalyst for much greater awareness; because if so I haven't seen much evidence of it (outside certain hipster-y areas of London) where it existed previously.
Although, when I went with a group of birders to Arizona, we did clear out the stock of cooked food at a KFC (who were just about to close) for ten bucks.
Would have fed the 5,000.....
For some reason, I draw considerable comfort from knowing I live in a "golden age of political blundering".
If he can put in place a decent number of second/third places in other states, that puts him in quite a good position.
(Chris WIlliamson not even on the bench...)
Why didn't they act before?
'A charity run by Prince Charles received donations from an offshore company that was used to funnel vast amounts of cash from Russia in a scheme that is under investigation by prosecutors, the Guardian can reveal.'
It goes on
'There is no suggestion that end recipients of funds were aware of the original source of the money, which arrived via a disguised route. However, the documents indicate that criminal and legitimate money may have been mixed together, making it impossible to trace the original source, before passing through screen companies into the global banking system.'
"Easiest trade deal in history"
"We hold all the cards"
"Have our cake and eat it"
All utter bollox