Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Dilemma

24567

Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Yorkshire taking what's not their's thanks to the EU:

    http://tinyurl.com/y6jmg3kb

    Fast bowler Duanne Olivier has turned down a two-year national team contract with South Africa to sign a deal with Yorkshire that will most likely put an end to his international career just as it was starting to blossom.

    The 26 year-old will play for Yorkshire for the next three seasons on a Kolpak deal, which allows South Africans to be registered as locally-based players in Britain but also prevents them from playing for their home country.

    Kolpak refers to a European Court of Justice ruling allowing some non-European Union players to play in the EU. Such deals will most likely not be possible in cricket after the United Kingdom leaves the European Union.
  • A few overs ago Morgan was on 71 and Buttler was on 45.

    They are both on 94 now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Do PBers think Watson et al. will actually walk in the near future?

    No, but I do expect him to run for Leader shortly after Brexit votes are finished.

    He is setting the foundations, and I think time is much riper than when Owen Smith challenged, and got 38% of the vote. Whether it will be him or another (Yvette? Jess? ?) I am not sure, but a better organised challenge is nailed on IMO. Watson doesn't shrink from a scrap, neither does Jess, not quite so sure that other prospects are tough enough.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    I watched that BBC documentary on Europe the other day on the Euro crisis.

    I was reminded how the Greek PM did a U-turn on the evening of the referendum result on whether to accept the EU terms on the Euro bailout. Whilst the UK is not in the Euro and I would never support our entry to it. I think May, if her deal is defeated again should follow the Greek route and just retract Article 50 and to hell with the advisory referendum of 2016. All that Leave promised has turned out to be just fantasy and not deliverable without more pain for those who cannot afford it. Our best deal is to stay within the European Union.

    Do you participate in elections, as say a party activist canvassing? What do you think the reception on the door would be like if she did that?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    notme2 said:

    I watched that BBC documentary on Europe the other day on the Euro crisis.

    I was reminded how the Greek PM did a U-turn on the evening of the referendum result on whether to accept the EU terms on the Euro bailout. Whilst the UK is not in the Euro and I would never support our entry to it. I think May, if her deal is defeated again should follow the Greek route and just retract Article 50 and to hell with the advisory referendum of 2016. All that Leave promised has turned out to be just fantasy and not deliverable without more pain for those who cannot afford it. Our best deal is to stay within the European Union.

    Do you participate in elections, as say a party activist canvassing? What do you think the reception on the door would be like if she did that?
    Better in Richmond than in Richmond ;)
  • Morgan and Butler on 96 and 98
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388

    Chris Williamson is not, however, without supporters.

    http://www.labouragainstthewitchhunt.org/
  • Pulpstar said:

    Do PBers think Watson et al. will actually walk in the near future?

    I think another confidence vote leading to another leadership contest is more likely.
    Corbyn will be happy to wallop the PLP amongst the membership again.
    Even so I think there will be an attempt to demonstrate to the membership that Corbyn is a block to dealing with anti-semitism and then an appeal for them to support them in getting rid of him.

    I'd hope that the Labour Party membership would vote against anti-semitism.

    If the membership sides with anti-semitism then it will be easier for MPs to walk away then - and try to take donors and unions with them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    TGOHF said:

    Andrew said:

    2 year extension with simultaneous discussions on the future trade agreement makes perfect sense. Bypasses current deadlock, and annoys all the right people.

    Doesn't get agreement with the EU.

    Mainly as Euro elections required - Uk returns 50% gammon MEPs to disrupt Strasbourg.

    Not happening bruv.
    How is that worse than now? , though personally I would expect the opposite swing, with the most europhilic MEPs getting sweeping gains. Remainers would have their tails up, Brexiteers between their legs.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    And - FFS Crick - Charlie Falconer’s Dad is not an Earl.

    It’s Charlie, Lord Falconer not Lord Charlie Falconer
    But has he resigned yet?
  • Butler 100 no

  • Kevin Schofield
    ‏Verified account @PolhomeEditor

    BREAKING: Labour suspend Chris Williamson. Spokesperson: “Chris Williamson is suspended from the party, and therefore the whip, pending investigation.”


    Corbyn breaks!
  • Scott_P said:
    Would love to know how many MPs threatened to walk in order to get him out.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Do PBers think Watson et al. will actually walk in the near future?

    They ought to, especially if that report about Corbyn vetoing Williamson’s suspension is true.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388
    Foxy said:

    TGOHF said:

    Andrew said:

    2 year extension with simultaneous discussions on the future trade agreement makes perfect sense. Bypasses current deadlock, and annoys all the right people.

    Doesn't get agreement with the EU.

    Mainly as Euro elections required - Uk returns 50% gammon MEPs to disrupt Strasbourg.

    Not happening bruv.
    How is that worse than now? , though personally I would expect the opposite swing, with the most europhilic MEPs getting sweeping gains. Remainers would have their tails up, Brexiteers between their legs.
    I'd expect the Conservatives and Farage's party to get c.50% between them, with UKIP disappearing.

    A TIG slate would probably do well, as well.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,876

    Morgan and Butler on 96 and 98

    Buttler got his hundred. The second 50 has been some of the most brutal batting I have ever seen.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited February 2019

    I watched that BBC documentary on Europe the other day on the Euro crisis.

    I was reminded how the Greek PM did a U-turn on the evening of the referendum result on whether to accept the EU terms on the Euro bailout. Whilst the UK is not in the Euro and I would never support our entry to it. I think May, if her deal is defeated again should follow the Greek route and just retract Article 50 and to hell with the advisory referendum of 2016. All that Leave promised has turned out to be just fantasy and not deliverable without more pain for those who cannot afford it. Our best deal is to stay within the European Union.

    Up until the point that May finally burned her Brexit policy by letting Parliament try to put it off until whatever point in the future it wanted, I would've said that she (probably) wouldn't do this, and that Parliament would have to take radical action to remove her and install a friendly PM in order to revoke.

    Now, well, to paraphrase Murphy's Law, anything that can happen, might.

    There are very good arguments to be advanced against all of: May's Deal, Labour Brexit, BINO, No Deal, Referendum 2 and Revoke. Yet, unless @Cyclefree has acquired the gift of prophecy and the EU decides that it would like to offer a long A50 extension, one of these apparently impossible things MUST happen on March 29th or shortly after (a short, technical extension, especially after the statements coming from the Spanish and French Governments today, only appears possible if it is to negotiate Labour Brexit or BINO, to finish legislating for May's Deal, or to hold Referendum 2.)

    So, what's coming next? At a guess, Revoke: because a majority in Parliament remains elusive for any form of resolution to Brexit, at least some EU leaders (and it only takes one to block extension) are being vocal in their opposition to can-kicking, and deep down it's what most MPs would really like to do. But frankly, who knows? I don't.
  • Scott_P said:
    Must be the start of the end for Corbyn
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited February 2019
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    And - FFS Crick - Charlie Falconer’s Dad is not an Earl.

    It’s Charlie, Lord Falconer not Lord Charlie Falconer
    Younger son of a duke or marquess, Chas, not an earl.

    The sons of earls would either be viscounts usually as a courtesy for the eldest son, or hons if younger sons.
  • DavidL said:

    Morgan and Butler on 96 and 98

    Buttler got his hundred. The second 50 has been some of the most brutal batting I have ever seen.
    Really enjoyed it
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875


    Kevin Schofield
    ‏Verified account @PolhomeEditor

    BREAKING: Labour suspend Chris Williamson. Spokesperson: “Chris Williamson is suspended from the party, and therefore the whip, pending investigation.”


    Corbyn breaks!

    Magic Grandpa is now Tragic Grandpa!
  • How many MPs does Labour have left now?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Scott_P said:
    A week or two later, when the media bandwagon has long since moved on to the next controversy (be it real or manufactured,) and the one after that, and the one after that, he'll be quietly let off. Watch.
  • Morgan 102 no
  • Scott_P said:

    I fear that the Leader of the Opposition is going to find the next round of journalists’ questions as disobliging as the last.

    Why would he care?
    I’m trying to put myself into the mindset of the hard Left.

    Would Corbyn prefer to be leader of a rump of 60 (original) Labour MPs following a pureist platform as a 3rd party in the HoC than compromise one inch with his parliamentary party and the voters to stay LoTO with a party that has 250+ MPs and a credible chance of forming the next Government?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Scott_P said:
    Good news - but what took then so long, and how many MPs had to threaten to resign from the party tonight in order to make it happen?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    How many MPs does Labour have left now?

    I *think* they're now on 245. It's getting quite difficult to keep up!
  • So that's a 21st independent MP in Parliament, for now at least.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    edited February 2019

    Scott_P said:

    I fear that the Leader of the Opposition is going to find the next round of journalists’ questions as disobliging as the last.

    Why would he care?
    I’m trying to put myself into the mindset of the hard Left.

    Would Corbyn prefer to be leader of a rump of 60 (original) Labour MPs following a pureist platform as a 3rd party in the HoC than compromise one inch with his parliamentary party and the voters to stay LoTO with a party that has 250+ MPs and a credible chance of forming the next Government?
    The former, if they were ideologically pure and didn't have any Blairite centrist melts or 'Zionists'.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Would Corbyn ... compromise one inch ?

    That is the nub, and we know the answer
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    I thought it was Jennie Formby who suspended Chris ?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Do PBers think Watson et al. will actually walk in the near future?

    Probably not. but it's got to be close to a tipping point.
    From a distance, it doesn't strike me to be the Watson way. He seems scrappier than walking away.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Pulpstar said:

    I thought it was Jennie Formby who suspended Chris ?
    It was. Jezza is distracted by important manhole cover related events!

    https://twitter.com/tara_mulholland/status/1100534237713911809?s=19
  • This suspension forced on the leadership is the second strong indication in three days that a large chunk of the Parliamentary Labour party is right on the brink of shearing off.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Scott_P said:
    Responses are a pretty even split between "this is a disgraceful decision" and "it's disgraceful that it took them this long". Well done, everyone.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,876
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course hindsight always improves one's apparent perception but when the EU insisted that they were not going to discuss the future relationship until the WA had been finalised there were 2 sensible responses.

    The first was to utilise the reply in Arkell-v-Pressdram and refuse to comply with that timetable.

    The second, marginally more constructively, would have been to fix a period of 6 months, maximum, to agree the WA and then spend the next 18 months fixing the future relationship.

    To waste 2 years faffing about stuff that was pretty technical, not very interesting and largely inevitable was incompetence of an unbelievable level. To then say at the end of those 2 largely wasted years that we need more time is pathetic. Just pathetic.

    Oh I am sick of this.

    "pretty technical, not very interesting and largely inevitable" = the relationship between NI, rUK, and RoI.
    Nah, that should never have been in there. It should have been left for stage 2. Stage 1 should have covered rights of citizens in each country, the books, pensions etc, and details about how law was to be adjusted in each country

    I am sure that would have been it had a sensible period been left for the real substantive issues. So much wasted time. It makes you weep.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    So that's a 21st independent MP in Parliament, for now at least.

    I wouldn't expect him at the next sneaky Nando's!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,876

    DavidL said:

    Morgan and Butler on 96 and 98

    Buttler got his hundred. The second 50 has been some of the most brutal batting I have ever seen.
    Really enjoyed it
    I genuinely feel sorry for the bowlers. I don't know how you bowl at someone playing like that. It's impossible.
  • From the Guardian.

    Rep Cooper, Republican, notes that in Cohen’s testimony he listed many of Trump’s flaws but repeatedly noted:

    “And yet, I continued to work for him.”

    Cooper asks why it took Cohen so long to stop working for Trump.

    Cohen then offers a remarkable warning to the Republicans on the committee as to what happens to those who stand by Trump.

    “I did the same thing that you’re doing now for ten years. I protected Mr. Trump for ten years,” Cohen says.

    “Look what’s happened to me.”

    Cohen adds: “The more people that suffer Donald Trump, as I did blindly, are going to suffer the same consequences that I did.”
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited February 2019

    Scott_P said:

    I fear that the Leader of the Opposition is going to find the next round of journalists’ questions as disobliging as the last.

    Why would he care?
    I’m trying to put myself into the mindset of the hard Left.

    Would Corbyn prefer to be leader of a rump of 60 (original) Labour MPs following a pureist platform as a 3rd party in the HoC than compromise one inch with his parliamentary party and the voters to stay LoTO with a party that has 250+ MPs and a credible chance of forming the next Government?
    Corbyn presumably believes that his control of the party machinery and support amongst the mass membership means he can still do more or less what he likes - because his MPs are too chicken to defect en masse? Meaningful - but modest - numbers have now gone, and nonetheless he's still only 17 down on the 262 he had after the last GE. Of those, one loss was a death and several other departures were suspensions or expulsions and not done on principle.

    The PLP is still at 94% of its 2017 strength. That's the measure of how reluctant the great mass of it is to push the nuclear button and oppose the leader by splitting. If there's going to be a rump socialist party in the end then it's only going to come about through Labour being ground down by the action of other political forces, and in our system that will take an awful lot of doing.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    On Topic, I think this is what happens next, though 21 months as has been floated rather than 24.

    Is that like selling something for £4.99 instead of a fiver for psychological reasons?
    It was originally ally because retailers didn’t trust their staff - 4.99 forced them to open the till to give change!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Next step for Williamson: deselection.

    Can't see how he holds Derby North after he has exploded so spectacularly. God nows how he gets people to vote for him in rather pleasant suburban Derby. No more though, surely.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    My view is that there is no point to a short extension. So an extension either has to be for a specific purpose - to complete legislation or a referendum. Or for a complete rethink eg starting work on the FTA etc.

    But absent something concrete from Britain I don’t see why the EU would grant any extension at all.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Scott_P said:
    A week or two later, when the media bandwagon has long since moved on to the next controversy (be it real or manufactured,) and the one after that, and the one after that, he'll be quietly let off. Watch.
    And then he'll have learned his lesson and keep his mouth shut and his head down for a while, so everyone forgets? Will he balls.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Scott_P said:

    I fear that the Leader of the Opposition is going to find the next round of journalists’ questions as disobliging as the last.

    Why would he care?
    I’m trying to put myself into the mindset of the hard Left.

    Would Corbyn prefer to be leader of a rump of 60 (original) Labour MPs following a pureist platform as a 3rd party in the HoC than compromise one inch with his parliamentary party and the voters to stay LoTO with a party that has 250+ MPs and a credible chance of forming the next Government?
    The former, if they were ideologically pure and didn't have any Blairite centrist melts or 'Zionists'.
    Lenin was always purging the party in pursuit of purity.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    This suspension forced on the leadership is the second strong indication in three days that a large chunk of the Parliamentary Labour party is right on the brink of shearing off.

    Nah, not happening.

    I mean, it would be nice if it did. There's a good argument that the Conservative Party deserves to be destroyed, but the Labour Party definitely does. But that would just be too damned easy.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    MTimT said:

    Scott_P said:

    I fear that the Leader of the Opposition is going to find the next round of journalists’ questions as disobliging as the last.

    Why would he care?
    I’m trying to put myself into the mindset of the hard Left.

    Would Corbyn prefer to be leader of a rump of 60 (original) Labour MPs following a pureist platform as a 3rd party in the HoC than compromise one inch with his parliamentary party and the voters to stay LoTO with a party that has 250+ MPs and a credible chance of forming the next Government?
    The former, if they were ideologically pure and didn't have any Blairite centrist melts or 'Zionists'.
    Lenin was always purging the party in pursuit of purity.
    Though, to be fair it worked quite well for him as a tactic.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Cyclefree said:

    My view is that there is no point to a short extension. So an extension either has to be for a specific purpose - to complete legislation or a referendum. Or for a complete rethink eg starting work on the FTA etc.

    But absent something concrete from Britain I don’t see why the EU would grant any extension at all.

    Anyway - politics? Who cares. Just spent days in the garden in this glorious weather. A robin a foot from my fork, Red Admiral butterflies up from the continent, a chiffchaff singing (3 weeks early) - this is what sets you free!
  • Foxy said:

    So that's a 21st independent MP in Parliament, for now at least.

    I wouldn't expect him at the next sneaky Nando's!
    He's a vegan, so nor would I.

    Perhaps they should go to a bagel shop next time though, just to be sure.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited February 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    My view is that there is no point to a short extension. So an extension either has to be for a specific purpose - to complete legislation or a referendum. Or for a complete rethink eg starting work on the FTA etc.

    But absent something concrete from Britain I don’t see why the EU would grant any extension at all.

    Anyway - politics? Who cares. Just spent days in the garden in this glorious weather. A robin a foot from my fork, Red Admiral butterflies up from the continent, a chiffchaff singing (3 weeks early) - this is what sets you free!
    If only we had realised that back in 2016, we could have saved a lot of bother.

    Surely this will be the warmest February ever?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Sean_F said:


    Chris Williamson is not, however, without supporters.

    http://www.labouragainstthewitchhunt.org/

    Just LOLed at this bit of their website:

    Are you a Labour Party member?
    yes
    no
    I've been expelled
    I've been suspended

    Why not just have a box to tick to self-declare as an antisemite?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Scott_P said:
    Given he has not defected, why would he?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752

    I watched that BBC documentary on Europe the other day on the Euro crisis.

    I was reminded how the Greek PM did a U-turn on the evening of the referendum result on whether to accept the EU terms on the Euro bailout. Whilst the UK is not in the Euro and I would never support our entry to it. I think May, if her deal is defeated again should follow the Greek route and just retract Article 50 and to hell with the advisory referendum of 2016. All that Leave promised has turned out to be just fantasy and not deliverable without more pain for those who cannot afford it. Our best deal is to stay within the European Union.

    Up until the point that May finally burned her Brexit policy by letting Parliament try to put it off until whatever point in the future it wanted, I would've said that she (probably) wouldn't do this, and that Parliament would have to take radical action to remove her and install a friendly PM in order to revoke.

    Now, well, to paraphrase Murphy's Law, anything that can happen, might.

    There are very good arguments to be advanced against all of: May's Deal, Labour Brexit, BINO, No Deal, Referendum 2 and Revoke. Yet, unless @Cyclefree has acquired the gift of prophecy and the EU decides that it would like to offer a long A50 extension, one of these apparently impossible things MUST happen on March 29th or shortly after (a short, technical extension, especially after the statements coming from the Spanish and French Governments today, only appears possible if it is to negotiate Labour Brexit or BINO, to finish legislating for May's Deal, or to hold Referendum 2.)

    So, what's coming next? At a guess, Revoke: because a majority in Parliament remains elusive for any form of resolution to Brexit, at least some EU leaders (and it only takes one to block extension) are being vocal in their opposition to can-kicking, and deep down it's what most MPs would really like to do. But frankly, who knows? I don't.
    The logical thing would be for May's deal to be approved during a short extension, when it sinks in that the EU won't grant a second extension, and that there aren't going to be any more options on the table.

    The problem would be if that happened too late for all the necessary legislation to be passed,.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    On topic, @Cyclefree wrote a great header, which we're all now ignoring because Corbyn just threw Williamson under a bus.

    I think the premise that they'd offer us 2 years and no less is unlikely, but if they did, then what we should do is very simple (take the Deal, which we should do anyway) and what we will do is absolutely unknowable.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    My view is that there is no point to a short extension. So an extension either has to be for a specific purpose - to complete legislation or a referendum. Or for a complete rethink eg starting work on the FTA etc.

    But absent something concrete from Britain I don’t see why the EU would grant any extension at all.

    Anyway - politics? Who cares. Just spent days in the garden in this glorious weather. A robin a foot from my fork, Red Admiral butterflies up from the continent, a chiffchaff singing (3 weeks early) - this is what sets you free!
    Oh, I agree!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My view is that there is no point to a short extension. So an extension either has to be for a specific purpose - to complete legislation or a referendum. Or for a complete rethink eg starting work on the FTA etc.

    But absent something concrete from Britain I don’t see why the EU would grant any extension at all.

    Anyway - politics? Who cares. Just spent days in the garden in this glorious weather. A robin a foot from my fork, Red Admiral butterflies up from the continent, a chiffchaff singing (3 weeks early) - this is what sets you free!
    If only we had realised that back in 2016, we could have saved a lot of bother.

    Surely this will be the warmest February ever?
    Those that God truly blesses, he allows to live in Devon.

    The rest have to make do with Brexit.....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,876
    Buttler goes. 150 off 77 balls. Just incredible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    edited February 2019
    A 2 year extension would make EUref2 very likely but most voters want neither, at most an extension can be for a couple of months to clarify the position on the backstop to get May's Deal through, though the threat of a w year extension and EUref2 might be needed to force the ERG to get behind the Deal
  • DavidL said:

    Buttler goes. 150 off 77 balls. Just incredible.

    It took him 32 balls to go from 50 runs to 150 runs.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Endillion said:

    On topic, @Cyclefree wrote a great header, which we're all now ignoring because Corbyn just threw Williamson under a bus.

    I think the premise that they'd offer us 2 years and no less is unlikely, but if they did, then what we should do is very simple (take the Deal, which we should do anyway) and what we will do is absolutely unknowable.

    Well, imagine the opposite: that Parliament votes for a short extension (having voted against the Deal and a No Deal exit) and the EU says no. What then?
  • On the subject of the header, the EU have always made clear that under the Article 50 they are not allowed to start discussing an FTA until after the UK has left. This has been their hard line ever since the referendum in spite of the British asking for them to move on this. They simply say it is the Treaty and they cannot change it. So why suddenly does anyone think they will say that they can now discuss an FTA when for the last 3 years it has been forbidden?

    I am afraid this is another of those elusive unicorns.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    I watched that BBC documentary on Europe the other day on the Euro crisis.

    I was reminded how the Greek PM did a U-turn on the evening of the referendum result on whether to accept the EU terms on the Euro bailout. Whilst the UK is not in the Euro and I would never support our entry to it. I think May, if her deal is defeated again should follow the Greek route and just retract Article 50 and to hell with the advisory referendum of 2016. All that Leave promised has turned out to be just fantasy and not deliverable without more pain for those who cannot afford it. Our best deal is to stay within the European Union.

    Up until the point that May finally burned her Brexit policy by letting Parliament try to put it off until whatever point in the future it wanted, I would've said that she (probably) wouldn't do this, and that Parliament would have to take radical action to remove her and install a friendly PM in order to revoke.

    Now, well, to paraphrase Murphy's Law, anything that can happen, might.

    There are very good arguments to be advanced against all of: May's Deal, Labour Brexit, BINO, No Deal, Referendum 2 and Revoke. Yet, unless @Cyclefree has acquired the gift of prophecy and the EU decides that it would like to offer a long A50 extension, one of these apparently impossible things MUST happen on March 29th or shortly after (a short, technical extension, especially after the statements coming from the Spanish and French Governments today, only appears possible if it is to negotiate Labour Brexit or BINO, to finish legislating for May's Deal, or to hold Referendum 2.)

    So, what's coming next? At a guess, Revoke: because a majority in Parliament remains elusive for any form of resolution to Brexit, at least some EU leaders (and it only takes one to block extension) are being vocal in their opposition to can-kicking, and deep down it's what most MPs would really like to do. But frankly, who knows? I don't.
    We'll get down to the last few days of March with the only possible options being no deal or revoke. And revoke it will be. Probably with some sort of fig leaf that everyone will go away and put their thinking caps on to come up with a practical, this-time-it'll-work-honest, plan for Brexit which, once agreed, will result in a re-invocation of A50.

    Except of course that will never happen, and ultimately we'll just all agree to never speak of this again.
  • 154 runs in the last 10 overs.

    Second best in the history of ODIs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I know it's him, but gotta say I think he's called this one right.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1100709432596541440
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    HYUFD said:

    A 2 year extension would make EUref2 very likely but most voters want neither, at most an extension can be for a couple of months to clarify the position on the backstop to get May's Deal through

    How do you clarify the backstop? What changes in April and May that is different from January?
  • IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My view is that there is no point to a short extension. So an extension either has to be for a specific purpose - to complete legislation or a referendum. Or for a complete rethink eg starting work on the FTA etc.

    But absent something concrete from Britain I don’t see why the EU would grant any extension at all.

    Anyway - politics? Who cares. Just spent days in the garden in this glorious weather. A robin a foot from my fork, Red Admiral butterflies up from the continent, a chiffchaff singing (3 weeks early) - this is what sets you free!
    If only we had realised that back in 2016, we could have saved a lot of bother.

    Surely this will be the warmest February ever?
    Not in the Central England Temperature. It's currently a whole degree behind the record for the month with only two days left.

    The start of the month started with negative extremes almost as large. It will probably be in the top ten though.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,876

    DavidL said:

    Buttler goes. 150 off 77 balls. Just incredible.

    It took him 32 balls to go from 50 runs to 150 runs.
    Surely the best ODI batsman in the world at the moment? England cannot have him coming in at 6, it's a waste.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    May has kicked Brexit into at least short grass, and Corbyn has done the same with his internal troubles. Maybe TIG won't be getting its expected batch of recruits this week after all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    On topic, if our parliament is unwilling to face no deal at that time, it should revoke. That's where such a long extension will definitely end up, since the problems will never be resolved satisfactorily. Realistically though, we'd probably take the two years because while furious and certain we'd end up remaining, Brexiteers would know they don't have the numbers to just leave with no deal, so it would be the best they can do.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    On the subject of the header, the EU have always made clear that under the Article 50 they are not allowed to start discussing an FTA until after the UK has left. This has been their hard line ever since the referendum in spite of the British asking for them to move on this. They simply say it is the Treaty and they cannot change it. So why suddenly does anyone think they will say that they can now discuss an FTA when for the last 3 years it has been forbidden?

    I am afraid this is another of those elusive unicorns.

    Isn't every option on the table a blooming unicorn bar actually agreeing to May's Deal?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    DavidL said:

    Buttler goes. 150 off 77 balls. Just incredible.

    He's ok
  • I wonder how long the investigation into Chris Williamson's case will take?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    IanB2 said:

    May has kicked Brexit into at least short grass, and Corbyn has done the same with his internal troubles. Maybe TIG won't be getting its expected batch of recruits this week after all.

    On the other hand, it might make a defection even more impactful than it would otherwise have been.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    kle4 said:

    On topic, if our parliament is unwilling to face no deal at that time, it should revoke. That's where such a long extension will definitely end up, since the problems will never be resolved satisfactorily. Realistically though, we'd probably take the two years because while furious and certain we'd end up remaining, Brexiteers would know they don't have the numbers to just leave with no deal, so it would be the best they can do.

    How do you get beyond July without holding European Parliament elections?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    It will be fascinating to see how long an investigation takes and what the outcome is. A lot of prominent MPs have been clear they think he is a disgrace, what will they do if he is let back with a slap on the wrist? I'd say something, except there are MPs who think Corbyn himself is an anti-semite and are happy to campaign for him to PM, so who the hell knows.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited February 2019
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    On topic, if our parliament is unwilling to face no deal at that time, it should revoke. That's where such a long extension will definitely end up, since the problems will never be resolved satisfactorily. Realistically though, we'd probably take the two years because while furious and certain we'd end up remaining, Brexiteers would know they don't have the numbers to just leave with no deal, so it would be the best they can do.

    How do you get beyond July without holding European Parliament elections?
    You don't, you hold them, that's the premise of the piece.

    Although really I don't see how we hold them. I was told usually a regional returning officer would have been in place 18 months ago, and while elections teams have been doing a lot of contingency planning in the past months, organising it would probably be hell.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    On topic, if our parliament is unwilling to face no deal at that time, it should revoke. That's where such a long extension will definitely end up, since the problems will never be resolved satisfactorily. Realistically though, we'd probably take the two years because while furious and certain we'd end up remaining, Brexiteers would know they don't have the numbers to just leave with no deal, so it would be the best they can do.

    How do you get beyond July without holding European Parliament elections?
    You can't. They would have to be held.
  • kle4 said:

    I know it's him, but gotta say I think he's called this one right.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1100709432596541440

    Corbyn is not Machiavelli. Hodges needs Corbyn to be cleverer than he is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    IanB2 said:

    May has kicked Brexit into at least short grass, and Corbyn has done the same with his internal troubles. Maybe TIG won't be getting its expected batch of recruits this week after all.

    Yes, the big two have moved with unusual speed to prevent more Tiggers emerging. Let us hope their presence continued to get May and Corbyn to actually move on things more than they usually do.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My view is that there is no point to a short extension. So an extension either has to be for a specific purpose - to complete legislation or a referendum. Or for a complete rethink eg starting work on the FTA etc.

    But absent something concrete from Britain I don’t see why the EU would grant any extension at all.

    Anyway - politics? Who cares. Just spent days in the garden in this glorious weather. A robin a foot from my fork, Red Admiral butterflies up from the continent, a chiffchaff singing (3 weeks early) - this is what sets you free!
    If only we had realised that back in 2016, we could have saved a lot of bother.

    Surely this will be the warmest February ever?
    Those that God truly blesses, he allows to live in Devon.

    The rest have to make do with Brexit.....
    Once over the hurdle of the day it takes most people to get there, Devon is attractive, for sure, although not as sunny across the year as the Isle of Wight or Eastbourne. A curse on people not living there nevertheless seems somewhat harsh. Especially as it will damage its fisherfolk.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    kle4 said:

    I know it's him, but gotta say I think he's called this one right.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1100709432596541440

    If your first instinct is to defend someone accused of anti-semitism, what does that say about you? If your response to one of your MPs bullied for being Jewish is not to speak to her at all, what does that say about you?

    Corbyn comes across as a deeply unpleasant and horrible person.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    I know it's him, but gotta say I think he's called this one right.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1100709432596541440

    Corbyn is not Machiavelli. Hodges needs Corbyn to be cleverer than he is.
    I don't think it's suggesting a machiavellian approach at all. It's a simple, animal cunning approach - instinctively defend, that way even if you lost the right people remember what you wanted to do.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    I wonder how long the investigation into Chris Williamson's case will take?

    Depends on whether they WANT to find anything. True believers don't believe he has done anything wrong - so will explain away anything that looks dodgy - or just ignore it completely.

    I don't believe there is the will in the Formby/Corbyn/Milne axis to take real action. Today's suspension is just for show and because they had no choice.

    Anyone who has followed WIlliamson's behaviour in recent months/years knows exactly what there is out there to find - I just don't trust Labour to do a proper investigation.

    How many suspended members have been allowed back in with little more than a slapped wrist? Too many - even though their transgressions have been clear.

    If you don't look properly (which they haven't been doing), you will never discover the depth of the problem. And the Labour leadership cabal is deliberately blind on this subject.
This discussion has been closed.