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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Dilemma

SystemSystem Posts: 12,546
edited February 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Dilemma

So, let’s imagine. It’s the Ides of March.  MPs have voted against Mrs May’s Deal (again). They’ve voted against No Deal. They’ve voted in favour of an extension.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,522
    First
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,522
    Another brilliant piece
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    Michael Crick
    ‏Verified account @MichaelLCrick

    Labour’s Parliamentary Committee - senior PLP members - met this afternoon & I’m told everyone present agreed with Tom Watson that Chris Williamson should be suspended - except the non-MP rep from Corbyn’s office who was adamant they didn’t want him suspended

    Corbyn calls Watsons bluff...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,564
    edited February 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First

    I hear they have chosen the judge for the inquiry.
  • Martin_KinsellaMartin_Kinsella Posts: 444
    Accept. Then work to rescind article 50.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Britain should take the two-year extension (and the EU should allow Richard Nabavi - and others - to say "I told you so" about the sequencing of talks).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,809
    I think they'll offer a five year extension or no WA.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,496
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First

    I hear they have chosen the judge for the inquiry.
    Is it Baroness Chakrabarti?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,784
    Accept.
    And then decide - most likely by referendum - what it is that we want to do next.

    Of course what Britain should do is not, by any stretch of the imagination, what May is likely to do.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,023
    Enjoyable piece.

    But are you saying a two year extension and then a further two year transition period?

    Plus as has been mentioned it would be quite a volte face on the sequencing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,172
    Slackbladder said:

    Michael Crick
    ‏Verified account @MichaelLCrick

    Labour’s Parliamentary Committee - senior PLP members - met this afternoon & I’m told everyone present agreed with Tom Watson that Chris Williamson should be suspended - except the non-MP rep from Corbyn’s office who was adamant they didn’t want him suspended

    Corbyn calls Watsons bluff...

    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1100788098470940672
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,850
    In practice whatever HMG intends to ask for will already have been discussed informally with the EU. Indeed I suspect she did this already last week. So there shouldn't be any surprises.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,664
    Tell me. Do we know what extension parliament will have authorised in this scenario: 'an extension' or 'a three month extension'
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1100788646251253761
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,172
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1100788098470940672

    At a previous outing by the charming Williamson...

    According to Labour Against the Witchhunt, Chris Williamson “confronted the IHRA definition of anti-Semitism… declaring that he often described Israel as an apartheid state”, denounced the “terrible injustice” done to Jackie Walker and condemned the way Marc Wadsworth had been “demonised as a bigot”, before calling on Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell to “wake up” and “confront the rightwing witch-hunters”. Instead of going after the anti-Semites in the Labour Party, Williamson urged the leadership to go after those who were calling it out…

    Williamson said that “bullying” would only stop when people stood up to, declaring that “the monster is getting bigger. Stop feeding the beast!” To top it off, Williamson was also sharing a platform at the event with the notorious Tony Greenstein, who was suspended by Labour for “repeatedly using ‘zio’ as a term of derision, stating ‘Gay zionists make me want to puke’ and referring to others as ‘Zionist scum’”.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,784
    These cheques might be rather awkward for Trump to explain...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,522
    Nigelb said:

    These cheques might be rather awkward for Trump to explain...

    Lock him up.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited February 2019
    What does Britain do in those circumstances? It would have no choice but to accept of course. It's what happens after that that's the issue.

    Assuming May doesn't get ousted by her party once her year of security expires or more likely gets VONCed in Parliament before then, then the most likely outcome is another two years of fannying around followed by the EU offering the stark choice of crash-out or revoke.

    I don't see May making it through a two-year (or more likely 21 month) extension though. We'll probably end up with another GE which will be a proxy referendum on something like her deal or remain.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,978
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First

    I hear they have chosen the judge for the inquiry.
    Is it Baroness Chakrabarti?
    Ken Livingstone.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,960
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First

    I hear they have chosen the judge for the inquiry.
    Is it Baroness Chakrabarti?
    Ken Livingstone.
    Arthur Scargill.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,699
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    These cheques might be rather awkward for Trump to explain...

    Lock him up.
    Not just at this moment, I need him to run then lose in 2020.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Remainer MPs are just as fond of unicorns as Leaver MPs. They seem to think they will control the length of any extension. But they might not get one at all.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    These cheques might be rather awkward for Trump to explain...

    Lock him up.
    It's the allegations of fraudulent devaluing of assets to evade property tax that are killer. Property taxes are levied by municipalities under state law. Only the state governor can issue pardons for that.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited February 2019
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Remainer MPs are just as fond of unicorns as Leaver MPs. They seem to think they will control the length of any extension. But they might not get one at all.

    Indeed. It's becoming clear that any extension will only be considered by the EU in terms of what Britain pledges to do with it, not the length of time requested.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,682
    Leave. Next.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    rpjs said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Remainer MPs are just as fond of unicorns as Leaver MPs. They seem to think they will control the length of any extension. But they might not get one at all.

    Indeed. It's becoming clear that any extension will only be considered by the EU in terms of what Britain pledges to do with it, not the length of time.
    You can’t blame them for that, given how the last two years have been wasted.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    I hope France vetoes an extension. MPs need to stop prevaricating and start taking responsibility.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1100791462457954311
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,522
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    These cheques might be rather awkward for Trump to explain...

    Lock him up.
    Not just at this moment, I need him to run then lose in 2020.
    I've come to the conclusion that the best thing for America is for Trump to lose in 2020.

    If he's impeached and convicted then his fans will see it as the swamp taking back control and they'll become even more angry.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    williamglenn said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First

    I hear they have chosen the judge for the inquiry.
    Is it Baroness Chakrabarti?
    Ken Livingstone.
    Arthur Scargill.
    David Icke.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,664
    rpjs said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Remainer MPs are just as fond of unicorns as Leaver MPs. They seem to think they will control the length of any extension. But they might not get one at all.

    Indeed. It's becoming clear that any extension will only be considered by the EU in terms of what Britain pledges to do with it, not the length of time requested.
    And May is a fundamental barrier to answering that question. After 14/3, no answer from May means we need to reach a point, in a very few days, whereby somebody else is in a position to answer. Exactly how that happens, I do not know.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    RoyalBlue said:

    I hope France vetoes an extension. MPs need to stop prevaricating and start taking responsibility.

    Yes - France has obviously had enough of these Remain prevaricators quite rightly.

    No need for any extension.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    Looks like the Reps only tactic is to play the man....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,900
    TGOHF said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I hope France vetoes an extension. MPs need to stop prevaricating and start taking responsibility.

    Yes - France has obviously had enough of these Remain prevaricators quite rightly.

    No need for any extension.
    Pass TM deal - simplees
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,522
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First

    I hear they have chosen the judge for the inquiry.
    Is it Baroness Chakrabarti?
    Ken Livingstone.
    You know who also was unfairly convicted by a biased judge?

    Though it'll be more like the people's court, so long as I don't have a Roland Freisler vs Erwin von Witzleben moment.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1100754224995024901

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1100754227620651008
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,682
    AlastairMeeks said:

    rpjs said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Remainer MPs are just as fond of unicorns as Leaver MPs. They seem to think they will control the length of any extension. But they might not get one at all.

    Indeed. It's becoming clear that any extension will only be considered by the EU in terms of what Britain pledges to do with it, not the length of time.
    You can’t blame them for that, given how the last two years have been wasted.
    And another 2 years would be spent really productively and usefully? Right....
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,786
    Slackbladder said:

    Looks like the Reps only tactic is to play the man....

    Yes. I initially thought the dismantling of Cohen was rather good and then it dawned on me he had completely ignored any and all of the evidence presented
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,522
    TGOHF said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I hope France vetoes an extension. MPs need to stop prevaricating and start taking responsibility.

    Yes - France has obviously had enough of these Remain prevaricators quite rightly.

    No need for any extension.
    I'd expect Parliament would revoke Article 50 in that instance on the promise on revoking it in the near future.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,850
    edited February 2019
    Spelman isn't pushing her amendment, (the revised) Cooper looks like it will be accepted alongside Costa, and the Labour and SNP amendments won't get a majority. So it doesn't look like there'll be any suspense this evening, and the substantive should sail through tomorrow.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Pro_Rata said:

    rpjs said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Remainer MPs are just as fond of unicorns as Leaver MPs. They seem to think they will control the length of any extension. But they might not get one at all.

    Indeed. It's becoming clear that any extension will only be considered by the EU in terms of what Britain pledges to do with it, not the length of time requested.
    And May is a fundamental barrier to answering that question. After 14/3, no answer from May means we need to reach a point, in a very few days, whereby somebody else is in a position to answer. Exactly how that happens, I do not know.
    Simultaneous defections of hundreds of MPs from Labour and Conservatives to TIG. Someone becomes interim PM.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,032
    Difficult to believe the EU is going to insist on a long extension, judging by what Macron and Sanchez are saying.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,783
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    I've come to the conclusion that the best thing for America is for Trump to lose in 2020.

    It's certainly better than him winning in 2020. (Not that that was the alternative you were implying.)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1100791462457954311

    If Chris is not suspended, will Charlie resign?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,895
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've come to the conclusion that the best thing for America is for Trump to lose in 2020.

    If he's impeached and convicted then his fans will see it as the swamp taking back control and they'll become even more angry.

    That is my view too. Needs to run, lose big, then jail.

    On Topic: What should we say to a 2 year extension?

    Yes, of course! - So long as we are not tormented with a REF2.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1100790330797015040
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    kjh said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Looks like the Reps only tactic is to play the man....

    Yes. I initially thought the dismantling of Cohen was rather good and then it dawned on me he had completely ignored any and all of the evidence presented
    Yep, Cohen clearly lied time and time again in the past. But there's evidence here of clear payments which need answers.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1100790330797015040

    That really is petrol on the flames.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TGOHF said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I hope France vetoes an extension. MPs need to stop prevaricating and start taking responsibility.

    Yes - France has obviously had enough of these Remain prevaricators quite rightly.

    No need for any extension.
    Pass TM deal - simplees
    The only reason for an extension is for those with a forlorn hope that Brexit wont happen.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,850
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    rpjs said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Remainer MPs are just as fond of unicorns as Leaver MPs. They seem to think they will control the length of any extension. But they might not get one at all.

    Indeed. It's becoming clear that any extension will only be considered by the EU in terms of what Britain pledges to do with it, not the length of time requested.
    And May is a fundamental barrier to answering that question. After 14/3, no answer from May means we need to reach a point, in a very few days, whereby somebody else is in a position to answer. Exactly how that happens, I do not know.
    Simultaneous defections of hundreds of MPs from Labour and Conservatives to TIG. Someone becomes interim PM.
    Chuka is 40 for next PM after May
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I said the other day we should ask for a 21 month extension. Anything else is pointless.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,900
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1100790330797015040

    That really is petrol on the flames.
    This cannot go on. Mass walk out to TIGs would be a game changer
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,682
    Of course hindsight always improves one's apparent perception but when the EU insisted that they were not going to discuss the future relationship until the WA had been finalised there were 2 sensible responses.

    The first was to utilise the reply in Arkell-v-Pressdram and refuse to comply with that timetable.

    The second, marginally more constructively, would have been to fix a period of 6 months, maximum, to agree the WA and then spend the next 18 months fixing the future relationship.

    To waste 2 years faffing about stuff that was pretty technical, not very interesting and largely inevitable was incompetence of an unbelievable level. To then say at the end of those 2 largely wasted years that we need more time is pathetic. Just pathetic.

    Oh I am sick of this.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Remainer MPs are just as fond of unicorns as Leaver MPs. They seem to think they will control the length of any extension. But they might not get one at all.

    It is one of the, albeit many, reasons for the whole shambles.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1100791462457954311

    I’m guessing that he had judged him guilty without reviewing the evidence. Not much sign of independence there.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,900
    edited February 2019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    I said the other day we should ask for a 21 month extension. Anything else is pointless.

    It looks like the EU are going to play hard ball and refuse an extension without a reason and even then no longer than the end of June, so TM deal or no deal become very likely
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,522
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1100790330797015040

    My prediction that TIG would be the third largest parliamentary grouping by the summer is looking pretty good now.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,577
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    These cheques might be rather awkward for Trump to explain...

    Lock him up.
    Not just at this moment, I need him to run then lose in 2020.
    I've come to the conclusion that the best thing for America is for Trump to lose in 2020.

    If he's impeached and convicted then his fans will see it as the swamp taking back control and they'll become even more angry.
    From the point of view of the rule of law, if Trump is guilty of what is being rumoured is in the Mueller report, then he needs to be tried and -if guilty- to face the rest of his life in jail. That is a necessary cleaning of the swamp: a criminal President, possibly even one guilty of out and out treason, should be removed from office as soon as possible.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited February 2019
    I watched that BBC documentary on Europe the other day on the Euro crisis.

    I was reminded how the Greek PM did a U-turn on the evening of the referendum result on whether to accept the EU terms on the Euro bailout. Whilst the UK is not in the Euro and I would never support our entry to it. I think May, if her deal is defeated again should follow the Greek route and just retract Article 50 and to hell with the advisory referendum of 2016. All that Leave promised has turned out to be just fantasy and not deliverable without more pain for those who cannot afford it. Our best deal is to stay within the European Union.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1100791462457954311

    And - FFS Crick - Charlie Falconer’s Dad is not an Earl.

    It’s Charlie, Lord Falconer not Lord Charlie Falconer
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,522
    Cicero said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    These cheques might be rather awkward for Trump to explain...

    Lock him up.
    Not just at this moment, I need him to run then lose in 2020.
    I've come to the conclusion that the best thing for America is for Trump to lose in 2020.

    If he's impeached and convicted then his fans will see it as the swamp taking back control and they'll become even more angry.
    From the point of view of the rule of law, if Trump is guilty of what is being rumoured is in the Mueller report, then he needs to be tried and -if guilty- to face the rest of his life in jail. That is a necessary cleaning of the swamp: a criminal President, possibly even one guilty of out and out treason, should be removed from office as soon as possible.
    I should have expanded.

    Trump loses the 2020 election and ends up in prison for the various state crimes many think he has committed.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    edited February 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1100790330797015040

    My prediction that TIG would be the third largest parliamentary grouping by the summer is looking pretty good now.
    Bloody hell, that intervention is absolutely horrifying, if true.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1100791462457954311

    If Chris is not suspended, will Charlie resign?
    There may be some who might speculate about that possibility.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1100791462457954311

    'sort of'
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1100790330797015040

    That really is petrol on the flames.
    I wonder if Corbyn feels he now has to fight or fall?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1100795409562247170
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,944
    On Topic, I think this is what happens next, though 21 months as has been floated rather than 24.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/wizbates/status/1100794851589791745
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I said the other day we should ask for a 21 month extension. Anything else is pointless.

    It looks like the EU are going to play hard ball and refuse an extension without a reason and even then no longer than the end of June, so TM deal or no deal become very likely
    I don't see evidence for that. Months ago yes that is what was being said but now the mood music is different.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    2 year extension with simultaneous discussions on the future trade agreement makes perfect sense. Bypasses current deadlock, and annoys all the right people.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1100790330797015040

    My prediction that TIG would be the third largest parliamentary grouping by the summer is looking pretty good now.
    If it gets to third it can pretty swiftly get to second too.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,522
    Andrew said:

    2 year extension with simultaneous discussions on the future trade agreement makes perfect sense. Bypasses current deadlock, and annoys all the right people.

    Testify.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,850
    edited February 2019
    felix said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1100790330797015040

    That really is petrol on the flames.
    I wonder if Corbyn feels he now has to fight or fall?
    He'll have to cave, now, just as he did on the referendum. Neither he nor Mrs M has control of their parties in the way of old.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    I think the ERGers are rapidly reaching the end of the road if they want any kind of Brexit. Any kind of lenghty extension and the game is up.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,900
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I said the other day we should ask for a 21 month extension. Anything else is pointless.

    It looks like the EU are going to play hard ball and refuse an extension without a reason and even then no longer than the end of June, so TM deal or no deal become very likely
    I don't see evidence for that. Months ago yes that is what was being said but now the mood music is different.
    Indicated today by Macron and others. They do not want to run into and beyond their May elections with all the problems that would bring
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    felix said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1100790330797015040

    That really is petrol on the flames.
    I wonder if Corbyn feels he now has to fight or fall?
    I fear that the Leader of the Opposition is going to find the next round of journalists’ questions as disobliging as the last.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,522
    https://twitter.com/greygossling/status/1100796924758818816
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,522
    This makes sense

    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1100795739704311808
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,900
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/greygossling/status/1100796924758818816

    That is very good
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,522
    If these GOP congressmen and women are indicative of the GOP senators then there's no way Trump gets convicted, or anywhere near the two thirds threshold.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,522
    Don't wish to curse them but Morgan and Buttler are in the zone.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,900
    England opening their shoulders - 300 for 3 after 42
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,699
    On Trump, I'm backing him for the nomination and I believe it's still a decent bet (1.35/1.42). However I'm also backing Pence for the presidency amongst the many runners and riders present (55.0).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,023
    DavidL said:

    Of course hindsight always improves one's apparent perception but when the EU insisted that they were not going to discuss the future relationship until the WA had been finalised there were 2 sensible responses.

    The first was to utilise the reply in Arkell-v-Pressdram and refuse to comply with that timetable.

    The second, marginally more constructively, would have been to fix a period of 6 months, maximum, to agree the WA and then spend the next 18 months fixing the future relationship.

    To waste 2 years faffing about stuff that was pretty technical, not very interesting and largely inevitable was incompetence of an unbelievable level. To then say at the end of those 2 largely wasted years that we need more time is pathetic. Just pathetic.

    Oh I am sick of this.

    "pretty technical, not very interesting and largely inevitable" = the relationship between NI, rUK, and RoI.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This makes sense

    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1100795739704311808

    That's right in terms of the PLP, but what about the membership?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,681
    Do PBers think Watson et al. will actually walk in the near future?
  • eekeek Posts: 30,448
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I said the other day we should ask for a 21 month extension. Anything else is pointless.

    It looks like the EU are going to play hard ball and refuse an extension without a reason and even then no longer than the end of June, so TM deal or no deal become very likely
    I don't see evidence for that. Months ago yes that is what was being said but now the mood music is different.
    Indicated today by Macron and others. They do not want to run into and beyond their May elections with all the problems that would bring
    Surely its more we can't go past July without the UK holding EU Parliament elections in May and 3 more months is not going to solve anything unless Parliament agree to something.

    In fact the only thing that we could do in 3 months that might (and its a very small might) solve this issue would be to hold a general election and no one wants to do that at the moment.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I fear that the Leader of the Opposition is going to find the next round of journalists’ questions as disobliging as the last.

    Why would he care?
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Do PBers think Watson et al. will actually walk in the near future?

    Honestly, no.

    They should, but they won't.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Do PBers think Watson et al. will actually walk in the near future?

    Probably not. but it's got to be close to a tipping point.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,664
    edited February 2019
    IanB2 said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    rpjs said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Remainer MPs are just as fond of unicorns as Leaver MPs. They seem to think they will control the length of any extension. But they might not get one at all.

    Indeed. It's becoming clear that any extension will only be considered by the EU in terms of what Britain pledges to do with it, not the length of time requested.
    And May is a fundamental barrier to answering that question. After 14/3, no answer from May means we need to reach a point, in a very few days, whereby somebody else is in a position to answer. Exactly how that happens, I do not know.
    Simultaneous defections of hundreds of MPs from Labour and Conservatives to TIG. Someone becomes interim PM.
    Chuka is 40 for next PM after May
    TIG slightly tricky to cover well in this market, but 40s seems worth a small amount. The reasoning behind my tipping (but then not backing - I'm slightly too casual about actually getting round to placing bets for my own good) Vince at 125s about a year ago does seem to be bearing up very well though.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,496
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1100788098470940672

    At a previous outing by the charming Williamson...

    According to Labour Against the Witchhunt, Chris Williamson “confronted the IHRA definition of anti-Semitism… declaring that he often described Israel as an apartheid state”, denounced the “terrible injustice” done to Jackie Walker and condemned the way Marc Wadsworth had been “demonised as a bigot”, before calling on Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell to “wake up” and “confront the rightwing witch-hunters”. Instead of going after the anti-Semites in the Labour Party, Williamson urged the leadership to go after those who were calling it out…

    Williamson said that “bullying” would only stop when people stood up to, declaring that “the monster is getting bigger. Stop feeding the beast!” To top it off, Williamson was also sharing a platform at the event with the notorious Tony Greenstein, who was suspended by Labour for “repeatedly using ‘zio’ as a term of derision, stating ‘Gay zionists make me want to puke’ and referring to others as ‘Zionist scum’”.
    You know, I would find this zeal more palatable if it included a similar zeal concerning places where Jews or women were similarly denied rights.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,699
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If these GOP congressmen and women are indicative of the GOP senators then there's no way Trump gets convicted, or anywhere near the two thirds threshold.

    Yes, that's my rationale for both backing Trump for the nomination (In relatively large size for my overall POTUS book) but also backing Pence for the presidency.
    If Trump is somehow thrown in the slammer beyond the ability of the Senate to stop it (Which is a remote chance) I think Pence will become the nominee by acclamation; and he'll have a fair chance of getting in with a motivated GOP base behind him (Democrats won't have Trump to vote against)
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Do PBers think Watson et al. will actually walk in the near future?

    I think another confidence vote leading to another leadership contest is more likely.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,023
    Foxy said:

    On Topic, I think this is what happens next, though 21 months as has been floated rather than 24.

    Is that like selling something for £4.99 instead of a fiver for psychological reasons?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,900
    eek said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I said the other day we should ask for a 21 month extension. Anything else is pointless.

    It looks like the EU are going to play hard ball and refuse an extension without a reason and even then no longer than the end of June, so TM deal or no deal become very likely
    I don't see evidence for that. Months ago yes that is what was being said but now the mood music is different.
    Indicated today by Macron and others. They do not want to run into and beyond their May elections with all the problems that would bring
    Surely its more we can't go past July without the UK holding EU Parliament elections in May and 3 more months is not going to solve anything unless Parliament agree to something.

    In fact the only thing that we could do in 3 months that might (and its a very small might) solve this issue would be to hold a general election and no one wants to do that at the moment.

    Agree - in practise we only need the 3 months if TM deal passes for legislation. Otherwise it is pointless
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,699
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Do PBers think Watson et al. will actually walk in the near future?

    I think another confidence vote leading to another leadership contest is more likely.
    Corbyn will be happy to wallop the PLP amongst the membership again.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,900
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Do PBers think Watson et al. will actually walk in the near future?

    There is the test. Something has to happen otherwise Watson will look compromised
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Andrew said:

    2 year extension with simultaneous discussions on the future trade agreement makes perfect sense. Bypasses current deadlock, and annoys all the right people.

    Doesn't get agreement with the EU.

    Mainly as Euro elections required - Uk returns 50% gammon MEPs to disrupt Strasbourg.

    Not happening bruv.
This discussion has been closed.