Wandering around London this evening it seems the marchers were in good spirits. This was not about changing TM mind but solidifying the opposition. In this regards it appears to have been a great success. The Labour Party grass roots are more united begin the campaign now. It will not change anything on its own but the pressure is increasing.
Business overall is not behind Brexit so it’s investment in a post Brexit world is minimal. I know from my company in that we have done nothing different as a result of the vote. Yet over 70% of our business is international. I cannot see how Brexit will make my world better but can see how it will make it worse. I refuse to believe the tory party would do something as stupid as mess up my business so expect BINO in the end.
As usual, things are not clear cut. It isn't pro business vs anti business.
Its six of one, half a dozen of the other - staying in the EU customs union will, for example, mess up the entire antiques trade because of planned bizarre import restrictions.
I have evolved over the last few weeks into moving neutral, apart from WTO which I reject
The demonstration was impressive but it looked a very middle class event, and of course held in remain London where both the mayor and the standard promoted it.
Farage counter march looked absolutely dead on its feet with only a handful of marchers.
I think hard brexit has now gone, even if it was ever likely, but the move there is a move towards a BINO deal or a second referendum, even though I do not quite understand how we get there.
But let those who want to remain or stop brexit understand this has the potential to rupture the country for decades; mind you leaving could have a similar effect
There are strong views on both sides with ever increasing inappropriate accusations and arrogance that one view is right and anything else is uneducated, and never mind the oldies as they will soon have died.
As an oldie I do find that offensive, not least because both my wife and I voted remain.
Maybe the temperature needs dialling down but it does seem unlikely
As I said May has privately already agreed a permanent CU+SM NI backstop with Varadkar and the EU which will enable the Withdrawal Agreement and Transition Period as Varadkar effectively confirmed yesterday, she just has not told the ERG and DUP yet which is the hard bit.
She will likely have to rely on Labour and LD votes to get it passed (Starmer said on QT Labour backed the NI backstop even if it opposed Chequers)
You really do not get it. You do not know what has been agreed and with respect you are beginning to look, to be kind, unwise and stuck in your ways
Varadkar said yesterday May agreed with him there had to be a NI backstop and it had to be permanent and without a time limit. The backstop of course is the only way to avoid No Deal and May knows that
May told MPs in the House of Commons on Monday: “It must be the case, first, that the backstop should not need to come into force; secondly, that if it does, it must be temporary; and, thirdly, while I do not believe that this will be the case, that if the EU were not to cooperate on our future relationship, we must be able to ensure that we cannot be kept in this backstop arrangement indefinitely.”
Her proposal to extend the transition by a year is her attempt to convince her backbenchers the backstop will never need to be enforced
Where has May said she wants to extend the transition 'for a year'?
Nothing will happen. Absolutely nothing. It won't be significant in any way. I mean, what do you feel right now? Nothing. Right?
As I sit here, and the Camden partygoers rock to the pub, and the students queue for the Jazz cafe, and the homeless Roma beg outside Whole Foods, it feels as if there had never been a #PeoplesVoteMarch at all.
It is poignant, how life moves on so swiftly. So brutally.
If we crash out with No Deal though there will soon be millions on the streets demanding EUref2, getting half a million on the streets of London for EUref2 today was a warning shot that we need a Deal
It will be all over by then though, they would need to start a re-join campaign which could take years and will the EU even still exist in say 20 years time?
Also there would need to be at least 17,410,742 of them.
No, if the negotiations end in November with No Deal that gives 4 months until Brexit day for EUref2 mass demonstrations and indeed an EU ref2 leading to a Remain vote before we are actually due to leave. Brexit can still be cancelled if it is seen by a majority of voters as on unacceptable terms.
To be honest with 40 Tory MPs led by Amber Rudd ready to vote with the opposition for EUref2 over No Deal they would probably get it.
Plus don't forget 16, 141, 241 voted Remain too
So who proposes the legislation?
Backbenchers, th.
They can’t propose legislation (setting aside private members bills which are easy to kill)
The legislation will probably have Dominic Raab's name on it.
People tend to overthink Brexit because it's so complex, but in terms of the outcome from Article 50 it's very simple. There are only three possibilities: no deal, a ratified Withdrawal Agreement or Remain. Parliament doesn't have a mandate to decide to Remain, so it has to go back to the people otherwise they just face a Hobson's choice and parliamentary sovereignty is meaningless.
Parliamentary Sovereignty is being actively employed right now
That’s why it is Theresa May (as the Crown in Parliament) negotiating Brexit not the Queen.
And May as Varadkar confirmed yesterday accepts in private there has to be an untimelimited backstop
So why do you think he chose to make a private commitment public?
"My father was a diplomat. He earned a modest Civil Service salary. But my mother had inherited a few thousand pounds from her late father. So in 1964 they used that money to buy a five-bedroom detached house opposite Kew Gardens in south-west London. It cost £8,000."
The authed too many tears over this tale of woe and downward mobility, it is hardly Dickensian!
But it is a fact that home ownership levels have fallen significantly among the young during the last two decades.
Though not as quickly as student debts have risen.
We London middle classes aged 45 and under have just had to reduce our expectations.
My mate, a QC, lives in a slightly cramped house in Hackney. It’s considered fancy by local standards but nevertheless, it’s Hackney. I live down the road. We hang in a group of corporate lawyers who have all had to make do somehow.
A generation ago, we’d all be in 5-beds in Hampstead.
But the question is why exactly have people had to reduce their expectations? There doesn't seem to be a clear answer to that question. Is it due to foreign millionaires buying London property to use as a piggy bank? Is it because the population has risen by 10 million over the last 20 years? Is it because a lot of people who would have lived in council houses 50 years ago are now competing with everyone else to buy property?
It's all of those, plus the fact that London has ascended to become THE global city, alongside New York (incidentally, NYC is suffering a recent property slump, pricewise, just like London - is that Brexit? Seems unlikely)
When you buy a flat in London you are competing with rich Brazilians, Chinese, Indians, Russians, Nigerians, Kazakhs, Germans, Japanese, etc, who aren't just investing, but actually want to live here, part of the time, or at least have their kids live here, and go to UK universities.
You can't simultaneously boast that London is arguably the greatest city in the world (I would say it is) but then complain that it is dauntingly expensive. It's like demanding the finwst caviar be available, at a reasonable price, in every fish and chip shop.
We can have a second tier capital, like Berlin or Copenhagen or Toronto, and locals can live there, or we can have a world city as a capital, but citizens of the world will price out many poorer locals.
I have evolved over the last few weeks into moving neutral, apart from WTO which I reject ...
Farage counter march looked absolutely dead on its feet with only a handful of marchers. ...
There are strong views on both sides with ever increasing inappropriate accusations and arrogance that one view is right and anything else is uneducated, and never mind the oldies as they will soon have died.
As an oldie I do find that offensive, not least because both my wife and I voted remain.
Maybe the temperature needs dialling down but it does seem unlikely
As I said May has privatbackstop even if it opposed Chequers)
You really do not get it. You do not know what has been agreed and with respect you are beginning to look, to be kind, unwise and stuck in your ways
HYUFD was convinced that ending WFA in England but keeping it in Scotland was going to be a big vote winner ... in England.
HYUFD has expressed with certainty that many things were going to happen, which didn't, and with equal certainty, that many historic xs were the result of ys, without any more than his own confirmation bias to back it up.
Over, and over, and over again. He definitely has the huge post count to show for it!
His current blind spot seems to be that the most Unionist of Unionists see the peril in accepting the backstop. But no, HYUFD, the oracle of all things past and future, can cite a single poll based on a future hypothetical to confound all real evidence and common sense...
61% of Northern Ireland voters want to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union.
In the event of a 'hard' Brexit more than 50% of Catholics say they would vote for a United Ireland compared to less than a third while NI remains in the EU.
Yet continue with your absurd finger in poses the threat to both the Union and the economy
"My father was a diplomat. He earned a modest Civil Service salary. But my mother had inherited a few thousand pounds from her late father. So in 1964 they used that money to buy a five-bedroom detached house opposite Kew Gardens in south-west London. It cost £8,000."
' It has been at least 20 years since I realised that, even though I was earning more than my father had ever made in his life, I could never hope to afford to live in a house like the one I grew up in, nor give my children the kind of education he provided for me and my sisters. '
What we've been seeing at various speeds and to varying extents around the country is middle class regression.
The author is a writer who was educated at Eton and had a detached house in Richmond Park.
He lives in what he describes as a 'rambling old cottage with a lovely garden' near Chichester and his children went to a local primary and a West Sussex comprehensive, Bishop Luffa, rated Outstanding. Please forgive me if I do not shed too many tears over this tale of woe and downward mobility, it is hardly Dickensian!
But it is a fact that home ownership levels have fallen significantly among the young during the last two decades.
Though not as quickly as student debts have risen.
We London middle classes aged 45 and under have just had to reduce our expectations.
My mate, a QC, lives in a slightly cramped house in Hackney. It’s considered fancy by local standards but nevertheless, it’s Hackney. I live down the road. We hang in a group of corporate lawyers who have all had to make do somehow.
A generation ago, we’d all be in 5-beds in Hampstead.
But the question is why exactly have people had to reduce their expectations? There doesn't seem to be a clear answer to that question. Is it due to foreign millionaires buying London property to use as a piggy bank? Is it because the population has risen by 10 million over the last 20 years? Is it because a lot of people who would have lived in council houses 50 years ago are now competing with everyone else to buy property?
Interest rates are lower, limits on salary multiples for lending have been relaxed and people trust property more than equity since Browns pension raid
"My father was a diplomat. He earned a modest Civil Service salary. But my mother had inherited a few thousand pounds from her late father. So in 1964 they used that money to buy a five-bedroom detached house opposite Kew Gardens in south-west London. It cost £8,000."
' It has been at least 20 years since I realised that, even though I was earning more than my father had ever made in his life, I could never hope to afford to live in a house like the one I grew up in, nor give my children the kind of education he provided for me and my sisters. '
What we've been seeing at various speeds and to varying extents around the country is middle class regression.
The author is a writer who was educated at Eton and had a detached house in Richmond Park.
He lives in what he describes as a 'rambling old cottage with a lovely garden' near Chichester and his children went to a local primary and a West Sussex comprehensive, Bishop Luffa, rated Outstanding. Please forgive me if I do not shed too many tears over this tale of woe and downward mobility, it is hardly Dickensian!
But it is a fact that home ownership levels have fallen significantly among the young during the last two decades.
Though not as quickly as student debts have risen.
We London middle classes aged 45 and under have just had to reduce our expectations.
My mate, a QC, lives in a slightly cramped house in Hackney. It’s considered fancy by local standards but nevertheless, it’s Hackney. I live down the road. We hang in a group of corporate lawyers who have all had to make do somehow.
A generation ago, we’d all be in 5-beds in Hampstead.
But the question is why exactly have people had to reduce their expectations? There doesn't seem to be a clear answer to that question. Is it due to foreign millionaires buying London property to use as a piggy bank? Is it because the population has risen by 10 million over the last 20 years? Is it because a lot of people who would have lived in council houses 50 years ago are now competing with everyone else to buy property?
The people with wealth have directed more of it towards property, other investments having poor returns, pushing up prices; as prices and rents have risen these people have become better off, and property has become concentrated in fewer hands. Their tenants are the young people who in my day would (just) have been able to make it onto the house-owning ladder.
And, Sir, I think you would have made a fine politician. Thoughtful, intelligent, even-handed. experienced in business, and so on. You are always a sane voice on PB.
It is sad that smart "ordinary" people like you DON'T go into politics and it is either mad cranks like Corbyn or entitled toffs like Cameron that DO. This is the great tragedy of British politics, over the last 50 years. We've lost the voice of the intelligent yet regular citizen, with experience of real working life.
@seant....a very nice, complimentary post about one of pbCOM's voices of reasons.
I've become very fond of bigG of late...
I tend to lurk nowadays....I'm still political but have nowhere to go at the minute with very little prospect of anywhere to go anytime soon....
If they really wanted to impress, or astonish, then half a million people should have dressed in black and marched in total silence through Sunderland or Macclesfield or Stoke. THAT would have been different. THAT would have been moving.
Macclesfield? The Surrey of the North? Have you ever been there?
But I take your point. As I said yesterday, it's actually difficult for a march to change anything or even change opinions. It does raise salience and makes it harder for decisions to drift through unchallenged, and that was really the point.
I confess I have never been to Macclesfield. Is it nice? I've always imagined it as some dingy northern toilet, like Moss Side. Apologies to Macclesfield.
On that point, as a bigoted southerner I am quite often surprised by how nice many dour-sounding northern towns turn out to be. Hexham, for instance, is utterly gorgeous, even if it sounds like it must be inhabited by sullen witches and zombie miners.
As a resident of Hexham, I can confirm that both of your statements about the place are simultaneously accurate.
I have evolved over the last few weeks into moving neutral, apart from WTO which I reject
The demonstration was impressive ialling down but it does seem unlikely
As I said May has priNI backstop even if it opposed Chequers)
You really do n that
May told MPs in the House of Commons on Monday: “It must be the case, first, that the backstop should not need to come into force; secondly, that if it does, it must be temporary; and, thirdly, while I do not believe that this will be the case, that if the EU were not to cooperate on our future relationship, we must be able to ensure that we cannot be kept in this backstop arrangement indefinitely.”
Her proposal to extend the transition by a year is her attempt to convince her backbenchers the backstop will never need to be enforced
Telegraph headline: 'Dominic Raab: Drop the backstop or the UK will not extend Brexit transition period'
It isn't an effort to convince the backbenchers, its an attempt to convince the EU that the backstop is unnecessary, and therefore dropped.
Without the backstop there will be no transition period, the EU as they have made consistently clear will go to No Deal.
What May is proposing is using the option of an extended transition period to find a backstop not that the backstop has to be dropped first completely before an extended transition.
'In her post-summit press conference, Mrs May said the idea of having the option to extend the transition period could be "a further solution" to the search for a "backstop" to ensure no hard border. "What we are not doing, we are not standing here proposing an extension to the implementation period," she said. "What we are doing is working to ensure that we have a solution to the backstop issue in Northern Ireland." '
Nothing will happen. Absolutely nothing. It won't be significant in any way. I mean, what do you feel right now? Nothing. Right?
As I sit here, and the Camden partygoers rock to the pub, and the students queue for the Jazz cafe, and the homeless Roma beg outside Whole Foods, it feels as if there had never been a #PeoplesVoteMarch at all.
It is poignant, how life moves on so swiftly. So brutally.
If we crash out with No Deal though there will soon be millions on the streets demanding EUref2, getting half a million on the streets of London for EUref2 today was a warning shot that we need a Deal
It will be all over by then though, they would need to start a re-join campaign which could take years and will the EU even still exist in say 20 years time?
Also there would need to be at least 17,410,742 of them.
No, if the negotiations end in Novemly get it.
Plus don't forget 16, 141, 241 voted Remain too
So who proposes the legislation?
Backbenchers, the opposition etc.
However given May has apparently told Varadkar already in private she backs a permanent backstop for NI I doubt it will be needed, May will get the Withdrawal Agreement and Transition Period.
They can’t propose legislation (setting aside private members bills which are easy to kill)
If private members bills have a clear majority of the House as EUref2 would in the event of No Deal they would be much more difficult to kill. If No Deal the Government will also not be able to get anything through, Soubry, Grieve etc will filibuster every government bill until they get the EUref2 vote they want
You can’t filibuster in the U.K. since the guilotine was introduced.
And private member bills have only limited time allowed. It’s up to Leadsom’s discretion to give them more time
If No Deal there will be nothing but EUref2 private members bills and with a clear majority of the Commons in favour of EUref2 over No deal it only takes one to get through in time for EUref2 to pass the Commons
Sigh. I don’t know why I bother sometimes
Private Member bills are limited to a small number. The MPs are selected by ballot and must submit their bills well in advance.
The list of bills for the current session is below:
It is poignant, how life moves on so swiftly. So brutally.
If don for EUref2 today was a warning shot that we need a Deal
Also there would need to be at least 17,410,742 of them.
Plus don't forget 16, 141, 241 voted Remain too
So who proposes the legislation?
Baceeded
I wonder if you ever take a newspaper report or opinion poll as anything other than gospel
Sometimes a degree of cynicism is wise
This was
And you fall for it
For goodness sake BigG look at the facts, if there is no permanent backstop we crash out with No Deal, basta, finito.
May knows that and May will do the necessary cave (even if it is hedged by some condition or test to be met before it ceases to apply)
Do not hector me.
You are entitled to your opinions but that is what they are
I do not trust a lot of your facts, as all the years I was in business and my nterest in poltics I have always sought out second opinions
I was invited to stand for the party in the Welsh Assembly elections yesterday but unfortunately that ship has sailed. Ironically I was asked when I was 22 to stand for the party for Caernarfonshire CC. Unfortunately that was when I was building a business and having my children
If I had been elected to office I would have been very thorough in making decisions based on many sources of information
And, Sir, I think you would have made a fine politician. Thoughtful, intelligent, even-handed. experienced in business, and so on. You are always a sane voice on PB.
It is sad that smart "ordinary" people like you DON'T go into politics and it is either mad cranks like Corbyn or entitled toffs like Cameron that DO. This is the great tragedy of British politics, over the last 50 years. We've lost the voice of the intelligent yet regular citizen, with experience of real working life.
That is very nice of you to say that. I do have some regrets as do my family but it was not to be
I do try to contribute on this forum, as it is such a fantastic place to learn from others, put your own observations forward without resorting to rancour, and hopefully add to the debates.
If they really wanted to impress, or astonish, then half a million people should have dressed in black and marched in total silence through Sunderland or Macclesfield or Stoke. THAT would have been different. THAT would have been moving.
Macclesfield? The Surrey of the North? Have you ever been there?
But I take your point. As I said yesterday, it's actually difficult for a march to change anything or even change opinions. It does raise salience and makes it harder for decisions to drift through unchallenged, and that was really the point.
I confess I have never been to Macclesfield. Is it nice? I've always imagined it as some dingy northern toilet, like Moss Side. Apologies to Macclesfield.
On that point, as a bigoted southerner I am quite often surprised by how nice many dour-sounding northern towns turn out to be. Hexham, for instance, is utterly gorgeous, even if it sounds like it must be inhabited by sullen witches and zombie miners.
Macclesfield is really quite grim...though it did produce the great Ian Curtis.
I have evolved over the last few weeks into moving neutral, apart from WTO which I reject ...
Farage counter march looked absoluteot least because both my wife and I voted remain.
Maybe the temperature needs dialling down but it does seem unlikely
As I said May has privatbackstop even if it opposed Chequers)
You really do not get it. You do not know what has been agreed and with respect you are beginning to look, to be kind, unwise and stuck in your ways
HYUFD was convinced that ending WFA in England but keeping it in Scotland was going to be a big vote winner ... in England.
HYUFD has expressed with certainty that many things were going to happen, which didn't, and with equal certainty, that many historic xs were the result of ys, without any more than his own confirmation bias to back it up.
Over, and over, and over again. He definitely has the huge post count to show for it!
His current blind spot seems to be that the most Unionist of Unionists see the peril in accepting the backstop. But no, HYUFD, the oracle of all things past and future, can cite a single poll based on a future hypothetical to confound all real evidence and common sense...
61% of Northern Ireland voters want to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union.
In the event of a 'hard' Brexit more than 50% of Catholics say they would vote for a United Ireland compared to less than a third while NI remains in the EU.
Yet continue with your absurd finger in poses the threat to both the Union and the economy
For the final time, the asses is a total lack of imagination, or understanding of how negotiation works.
No it is based on the obvious point that Barnier and the EU are clear with No backstop for the NI border there is No Deal, basta.
Yet as usual you have your fingers in your ears with just a month of negotiations to go
Because in a negotiation, everyone is telling the truth all the time.
Riiiight.
The EU is, the UK is the destination of 16% of their exports, they can survive No Deal as a lesson to 'les autres'. The EU makes up 45% of UK exports, we need a Deal far more than they do.
If you think you can call their bluff you will soon discover you were wrong
"My father was a diplomat. He earned a modest Civil Service salary. But my mother had inherited a few thousand pounds from her late father. So in 1964 they used that money to buy a five-bedroom detached house opposite Kew Gardens in south-west London. It cost £8,000."
The authed too many tears over this tale of woe and downward mobility, it is hardly Dickensian!
But it is a fact that home ownership levels have fallen significantly among the young during the last two decades.
Though not as quickly as student debts have risen.
We London middle classes aged 45 and under have just had to reduce our expectations.
My mate, a QC, lives in a slightly cramped house in Hackney. It’s considered fancy by local standards but nevertheless, it’s Hackney. I live down the road. We hang in a group of corporate lawyers who have all had to make do somehow.
A generation ago, we’d all be in 5-beds in Hampstead.
But the question is why exactly have people had to reduce their expectations? There doesn't seem to be a clear answer to that question. Is it due to foreign millionaires buying London property to use as a piggy bank? Is it because the population has risen by 10 million over the last 20 years? Is it because a lot of people who would have lived in council houses 50 years ago are now competing with everyone else to buy property?
A It's all of thf the world will price out many poorer locals.
Ah hem... Toronto is pretty insanely expensive.
It is? With THAT climate? Wow.
And here I speak from experience. I've been to Ontario in the winter. OMG. It is unspeakable. Hideous. Everyone lives underground (literally) from November-March.
My god, people will clearly pay a lot JUST for an English speaking city with political stability.
After Vancouver. Toronto is the Canadian city widely derided for not having a "proper winter". Nov to March only underground is for wimps and un-Canadian....maybe a weekend travel article from Winnipeg in January is required?
Extraordinary. Our civil servants won’t plan for Brexit on the say so of our previous prime minister, but they will plan for something that has been expressly ruled out by the current prime minister.
We London middle classes aged 45 and under have just had to reduce our expectations.
My mate, a QC, lives in a slightly cramped house in Hackney. It’s considered fancy by local standards but nevertheless, it’s Hackney. I live down the road. We hang in a group of corporate lawyers who have all had to make do somehow.
A generation ago, we’d all be in 5-beds in Hampstead.
But the question is why exactly have people had to reduce their expectations? There doesn't seem to be a clear answer to that question. Is it due to foreign millionaires buying London property to use as a piggy bank? Is it because the population has risen by 10 million over the last 20 years? Is it because a lot of people who would have lived in council houses 50 years ago are now competing with everyone else to buy property?
It's all of those, plus the fact that London has ascended to become THE global city, alongside New York (incidentally, NYC is suffering a recent property slump, pricewise, just like London - is that Brexit? Seems unlikely)
When you buy a flat in London you are competing with rich Brazilians, Chinese, Indians, Russians, Nigerians, Kazakhs, Germans, Japanese, etc, who aren't just investing, but actually want to live here, part of the time, or at least have their kids live here, and go to UK universities.
You can't simultaneously boast that London is arguably the greatest city in the world (I would say it is) but then complain that it is dauntingly expensive. It's like demanding the finwst caviar be available, at a reasonable price, in every fish and chip shop.
We can have a second tier capital, like Berlin or Copenhagen or Toronto, and locals can live there, or we can have a world city as a capital, but citizens of the world will price out many poorer locals.
I do wonder about the effects this will have.
For example some bright graduate moves to London expecting to be 'the next big thing' and to live the world city lifestyle.
A few years later they're still renting a room in Walthamstow, heavily in debt, having inequality rubbed in their face as they see other people live the big lifestyle but with no hope of it themselves while meanwhile back in their home town people their age are buying houses and have a much better quality of life.
It must lead to some frustration and bitterness for the Corbyns of today and the future to harness.
We can have a second tier capital, like Berlin or Copenhagen or Toronto, and locals can live there, or we can have a world city as a capital, but citizens of the world will price out many poorer locals.
If they really wanted to impress, or astonish, then half a million people should have dressed in black and marched in total silence through Sunderland or Macclesfield or Stoke. THAT would have been different. THAT would have been moving.
Macclesfield? The Surrey of the North? Have you ever been there?
But I take your point. As I said yesterday, it's actually difficult for a march to change anything or even change opinions. It does raise salience and makes it harder for decisions to drift through unchallenged, and that was really the point.
I confess I have never been to Macclesfield. Is it nice? I've always imagined it as some dingy northern toilet, like Moss Side. Apologies to Macclesfield.
On that point, as a bigoted southerner I am quite often surprised by how nice many dour-sounding northern towns turn out to be. Hexham, for instance, is utterly gorgeous, even if it sounds like it must be inhabited by sullen witches and zombie miners.
Mcclesfield is rather posh and very pretty - lots of light brownstone architecture, a market town surrounded by pleasant housing in rolling countryside. (I know it because the company I used to work for, Ciba-Geigy, had a branch there.) They cheerfully elected Sir Nicholas Winterton for many years, who was (and presumably still is, in retirement) an old school right-wing Tory.
Your idea of half a million middle-class Remainers marching through it, munching quinoa, has a pleasingly surreal flavour.
Extraordinary. Our civil servants won’t plan for Brexit on the say so of our previous prime minister, but they will plan for something that has been expressly ruled out by the current prime minister.
It stinks.
That quote:
"Civil servants have to prepare for every eventuality".... yeah....
Nothing will happen. Absves on so swiftly. So brutally.
If we crash out with No Deal though there will soon be millions on the streets demanding EUref2, getting half a million on the streets of London for EUref2 today was a warning shot that we need a Deal
It will be all over by then though, they would need to start a re-join campaign which could take years and will the EU even still exist in say 20 years time?
Also there would need to be at least 17,410,742 of them.
No, if the negotiations end in Novemly get it.
Plus don't forget 16, 141, 241 voted Remain too
So who proposes the legislation?
Backbenchers, the opposition etc.
However given May has apparently told Varadkar already in private she backs a permanent backstop for NI I doubt it will be needed, May will get the Withdrawal Agreement and Transition Period.
They can’t propose legislation (setting aside private members bills which are easy to kill)
If private members bills have a clear majority of the House as EUref2 would in the event of No Deal they would be much more difficult to kill. If No Deal the Government will also not be able to get anything through, Soubry, Grieve etc will filibuster every government bill until they get the EUref2 vote they want
You can’t filibuster in the U.K. since the guilotine was introduced.
And private member bills have only limited time allowed. It’s up to Leadsom’s discretion to give them more time
If No Deal there will be nons
Sigh. I don’t know why I bother sometimes
Private Member bills are limited to a small number. The MPs are selected by ballot and must submit their bills well in advance.
The list of bills for the current session is below:
As a rich Leave voter I know you could not care less about No Deal as you are far too wealthy for it to affect you significantly so the economic damage will have little impact on you personally even if it affects millions of others although I hope you would at least consider the damage it might do to the Union.
An EUref private members bill will likely swiftly rise to the top of the private members ballot
Extraordinary. Our civil servants won’t plan for Brexit on the say so of our previous prime minister, but they will plan for something that has been expressly ruled out by the current prime minister.
It stinks.
The significant thing is perhaps the hint about what circumstances could bring it about: not a rearguard action from parliament, but a decision from the top.
"My father was a diplomat. He earned a modest Civil Service salary. But my mother had inherited a few thousand pounds from her late father. So in 1964 they used that money to buy a five-bedroom detached house opposite Kew Gardens in south-west London. It cost £8,000."
The authed too many tears over this tale of woe and downward mobility, it is hardly Dickensian!
But it is a fact that home ownership levels have fallen significantly among the young during the last two decades.
Though not as quickly as student debts have risen.
We London middle classes aged 45 and under have just had to reduce our expectations.
My mate, a QC, lives in a slightly cramped house in Hackney. It’s considered fancy by local standards but nevertheless, it’s Hackney. I live down the road. We hang in a group of corporate lawyers who have all had to make do somehow.
A generation ago, we’d all be in 5-beds in Hampstead.
But the question is why exactly have people had to reduce their expectations? There doesn't seem to be a clear answer to that question. Is it due to foreign millionaires buying London property to use as a piggy bank? Is it because the population has risen by 10 million over the last 20 years? Is it because a lot of people who would have lived in council houses 50 years ago are now competing with everyone else to buy property?
A It's all of thf the world will price out many poorer locals.
Ah hem... Toronto is pretty insanely expensive.
It is? With THAT climate? Wow.
And here I speak from experience. I've been to Ontario in the winter. OMG. It is unspeakable. Hideous. Everyone lives underground (literally) from November-March.
My god, people will clearly pay a lot JUST for an English speaking city with political stability.
After Vancouver. Toronto is the Canadian city widely derided for not having a "proper winter". Nov to March only underground is for wimps and un-Canadian....maybe a weekend travel article from Winnipeg in January is required?
The head of Novartis AH R&D once told me he was caught in an unexpected blizzard in Northern Ontario.
He was so cold he stuck his arms up to the shoulder in a local cow to benefit from her body warmth...
Extraordinary. Our civil servants won’t plan for Brexit on the say so of our previous prime minister, but they will plan for something that has been expressly ruled out by the current prime minister.
It stinks.
That quote:
"Civil servants have to prepare for every eventuality".... yeah....
Well Remain does have a 10% poll lead over No Deal, EUref2 if No Deal cannot be ruled out and civil servants rightly recognise that
Nothing will happen. Absves on so swiftly. So brutally.
l
It will be all over by then though, they would need to start a re-join campaign which could take years and will the EU even still exist in say 20 years time?
Also there would need to be at least 17,410,742 of them.
No, if the negotiations end in Novemly get it.
Plus don't forget 16, 141, 241 voted Remain too
So who proposes the legislation?
Backbenchers, the opposition etc.
However given May has apparently told Varadkar already in private she backs a permanent backstop for NI I doubt it will be needed, May will get the Withdrawal Agreement and Transition Period.
They can’t propose legislation (setting aside private members bills which are easy to kill)
If private members bills have a clear majority of the House as EUref2 would in the event of No Deal they would be much more difficult to kill. If No Deal the Government will also not be able to get anything through, Soubry, Grieve etc will filibuster every government bill until they get the EUref2 vote they want
You can’t filibuster in the U.K. since the guilotine was introduced.
And private member bills have only limited time allowed. It’s up to Leadsom’s discretion to give them more time
If No Deal there will be nons
Sigh. I don’t know why I bother sometimes
Private Member bills are limited to a small number. The MPs are selected by ballot and must submit their bills well in advance.
The list of bills for the current session is below:
As a rich Leave voter I know you could not care less about No Deal as you are far too wealthy for it to affect you significantly so the economic damage will have little impact on you personally even if it affects millions of others although I hope you would at least consider the damage it might do to the Union.
An EUref private members bill will likely swiftly rise to the top of the private members ballot.
I’m impressed how well you read my mind. Not.
And once the member has listed their bill they are done until the next ballot.
Fundamentally there can’t be a second referendum unless the government gives a bill time.
"My father was a diplomat. He earned a modest Civil Service salary. But my mother had inherited a few thousand pounds from her late father. So in 1964 they used that money to buy a five-bedroom detached house opposite Kew Gardens in south-west London. It cost £8,000."
But the question is why exactly have people had to reduce their expectations? There doesn't seem to be a clear answer to that question. Is it due to foreign millionaires buying London property to use as a piggy bank? Is it because the population has risen by 10 million over the last 20 years? Is it because a lot of people who would have lived in council houses 50 years ago are now competing with everyone else to buy property?
A It's all of thf the world will price out many poorer locals.
Ah hem... Toronto is pretty insanely expensive.
It is? With THAT climate? Wow.
And here I speak from experience. I've been to Ontario in the winter. OMG. It is unspeakable. Hideous. Everyone lives underground (literally) from November-March.
My god, people will clearly pay a lot JUST for an English speaking city with political stability.
After Vancouver. Toronto is the Canadian city widely derided for not having a "proper winter". Nov to March only underground is for wimps and un-Canadian....maybe a weekend travel article from Winnipeg in January is required?
The head of Novartis AH R&D once told me he was caught in an unexpected blizzard in Northern Ontario.
He was so cold he stuck his arms up to the shoulder in a local cow to benefit from her body warmth...
Did have a friend who was determined to keep up his exercise routine when moving from UK to N Alberta. A trip to ER to have his foreskin separated from his jogging gear cured that.
It will be all over by then thout least 17,410,742 of them.
Plus don't forget 16, 141, 241 voted Remain too
So who proposes the legislation?
Backbenchers, the opposition etc.
I wonder if you ever take a newspaper report or opinion poll as anything other than gospel
Sometimes a degree of cynicism is wise
This was not a newspaper report or poll it was a Parliament
And you fall for it
For goodness sake BigG look at the facts, if there is no permanent backstop we crash out with No Deal, basta, finito.
May knows that and May will do the necessary cave (even if it is hedged by some condition or test to be met before it ceases to apply)
Do not hector me.
You are entitled to your opinions but that is what they are
I do not trust a lot of your facts, as all the years I was in business and my nterest in poltics I have always sought out second opinions
I was invited to stand for the party in the Welsh Assembly elections yesterday but unfortunately that ship has sailed. Ironically I was asked when I was 22 to stand for the party for Caernarfonshire CC. Unfortunately that was when I was building a business and having my children
If I had been elected to office I would have been very thorough in making decisions based on many sources of information
Don't go getting all high and mighty with me, just a few weeks ago you were going on about the calamity of No Deal Brexit for Airbus etc and of course without the backstop there will be No Deal and you and your son in law can say bye bye Airbus.
We are supposed to be on the same page on this, I suggest you turn your fire on the real enemy, the No Deal Brexit diehards
I have been wholly opposed to no deal as you well know - indeed throughout the time you were full on Boris, the one person who told Airbus to FO
I find it increasingly difficult to be on the same page due to your inability to see that at times your arguments are flawed
Extraordinary. Our civil servants won’t plan for Brexit on the say so of our previous prime minister, but they will plan for something that has been expressly ruled out by the current prime minister.
It stinks.
The significant thing is perhaps the hint about what circumstances could bring it about: not a rearguard action from parliament, but a decision from the top.
Indeed, May of course last week also said she would let Parliament decide the way forward if No Deal, that could of course include a Parliamentary vote for EUref2
Extraordinary. Our civil servants won’t plan for Brexit on the say so of our previous prime minister, but they will plan for something that has been expressly ruled out by the current prime minister.
It stinks.
That quote:
"Civil servants have to prepare for every eventuality".... yeah....
Well Remain does have a 10% poll lead over No Deal, EUref2 if No Deal cannot be ruled out and civil servants rightly recognise that
Nothing will happen. Absves on so swiftly. So brutally.
l
It will be all over by then though, they would need to start a re-join campaign which could take years and will the EU even still exist in say 20 years time?
Also there would need to be at least 17,410,742 of them.
No, if the negotiations end in Novemly get it.
Plus don't forget 16, 141, 241 voted Remain too
So who proposes the legislation?
Backbenchers,
They can’t propose legislation (setting aside private members bills which are easy to kill)
If private members bills havy want
You can’t filibuster in the U.K. since the guilotine was introduced.
And private member bills have only limited time allowed. It’s up to Leadsom’s discretion to give them more time
If No Deal there will be nons
Sigh. I don’t know why I bother sometimes
Private Member bills are limited to a small number. The MPs are selected by ballot and must submit their bills well in advance.
The list of bills for the current session is below:
As a rich Leave voter I know you ckely swiftly rise to the top of the private members ballot.
I’m impressed how well you read my mind. Not.
And once the member has listed their bill they are done until the next ballot.
Fundamentally there can’t be a second referendum unless the government gives a bill time.
You are a wealthy London financier not a Nissan worker in the NorthEast, or an EU care worker or someone who needs medicines currently coming from the EU or a worker for a medium sized business which exports a lot to the EU or a UK student in the EU or an EU student in the UK so my statement stands. Others will be hit far worse than you from No Deal
May has said the government will give Parliament time to decide the course of action if No Deal
As a rich Leave voter I know you could not care less about No Deal as you are far too wealthy for it to affect you significantly so the economic damage will have little impact on you personally even if it affects millions of others although I hope you would at least consider the damage it might do to the Union.
An EUref private members bill will likely swiftly rise to the top of the private members ballot
Charles is at least technically correct. A new private member's bill would have no chance at all unless it had unanimous support (good luck with that), because the order of Bills is already fixed for the current session into next year.
That said, you are right that if a majority of the House really wants something, they have ample ways of making the Government's life absolutely impossible until they get it, without actually bringing the Government down.
"My father was a diplomat. He earned a modest Civil Service salary. But my mother had inherited a few thousand pounds from her late father. So in 1964 they used that money to buy a five-bedroom detached house opposite Kew Gardens in south-west London. It cost £8,000."
The authed too many tears over this tale of woe and downward mobility, it is hardly Dickensian!
But it is a fact that home ownership levels have fallen significantly among the young during the last two decades.
Though not as quickly as student debts have risen.
We London in Hampstead.
But the perty?
A It's all of thf the world will price out many poorer locals.
Ah hem... Toronto is pretty insanely expensive.
It is? With THAT climate? Wow.
And here I speak from experience. I've been to Ontario in the winter. OMG. It is unspeakable. Hideous. Everyone lives underground (literally) from November-March.
My god, people will clearly pay a lot JUST for an English speaking city with political stability.
After Vancouver. Toronto is the Canadian city widely derided for not having a "proper winter". Nov to March only underground is for wimps and un-Canadian....maybe a weekend travel article from Winnipeg in January is required?
Not a proper winter? Have you been there in winter???
The Toronto average is zero or subzero MAXIMUM for three solid months. And the lows can go to fatal levels: -23C. These are inhuman temperatures, literally lethal if you are outdoors and not entirely cocooned.
My brother moved to the outskirts of Toronto for a few years. The winters broke him. He first learned his lesson when, as a Cornishman used to a mild 9C on a winter day, he went for a cycle on a "brisk" Canadian day in November and his eyeballs literally froze.
And then, he said, there was the snow shovelling. Every fucking day, for about five months.
He eventually moved to Vancouver, and eventually moved to Peru, where he is now. Weather was a significant factor.
Yep. Used to live on the Lesser Slave Lake. ...It was like that in May. Toronto is amateur winter.
It will be all over by then thout least 17,410,742 of them.
Plus don't forget 16, 141, 241 voted Remain too
So who proposes the legislation?
Backbenchers, the opposition etc.
I wonder if you ever take a newspaper report or opinion poll as anything other than gospel
Sometimes a degree of cynicism is wise
This was not a newspaper report or poll it was a Parliament
And you fall for it
For goodness sake BigG look at the facts, if there is no permanent backstop we crash out with No Deal, basta, finito.
May knows that and May will do the necessary cave (even if it is hedged by some condition or test to be met before it ceases to apply)
Do not hection
Don't go getting all higxit diehards
I have been wholly opposed to no deal as you well know - indeed throughout the time you were full on Boris, the one person who told Airbus to FO
I find it increasingly difficult to be on the same page due to your inability to see that at times your arguments are flawed
Except you fail to see the logic that without a NI backstop the inevitable result will be No Deal.
The fact I think Boris is a general election winner does not mean I want him leading the negotiations now (he also never told Airbus specifically to FO, just attacked business leaders he felt were attacking Brexit)
As a rich Leave voter I know you could not care less about No Deal as you are far too wealthy for it to affect you significantly so the economic damage will have little impact on you personally even if it affects millions of others although I hope you would at least consider the damage it might do to the Union.
An EUref private members bill will likely swiftly rise to the top of the private members ballot
Charles is at least technically correct. A new private member's bill would have no chance at all unless it had unanimous support (good luck with that), because the order of Bills is already fixed for the current session into next year.
That said, you are right that if a majority of the House really wants something, they have ample ways of making the Government's life absolutely impossible until they get it, without actually bringing the Government down.
Indeed and they will. Plus May has confirmed Parliament will be able to decide the course of action if No Deal anyway
"My father was a diplomat. He earned a modest Civil Service salary. But my mother had inherited a few thousand pounds from her late father. So in 1964 they used that money to buy a five-bedroom detached house opposite Kew Gardens in south-west London. It cost £8,000."
The authed too many tears over this tale of woe and downward mobility, it is hardly Dickensian!
But it is a fact that home ownership levels have fallen significantly among the young during the last two decades.
Though not as quickly as student debts have risen.
We London middle classes aged 45 and under have just had to reduce our expectations.
My mate, a QC, lives in a slightly cramped house in Hackney. It’s considered fancy by local standards but nevertheless, it’s Hackney. I live down the road. We hang in a group of corporate lawyers who have all had to make do somehow.
A generation ago, we’d all be in 5-beds in Hampstead.
But the question is why exactly have people had to reduce their expectations? There doesn't seem to be a clear answer to that question. Is it due to foreign millionaires buying London property to use as a piggy bank? Is it because the population has risen by 10 million over the last 20 years? Is it because a lot of people who would have lived in council houses 50 years ago are now competing with everyone else to buy property?
It's all of thf the world will price out many poorer locals.
Ah hem... Toronto is pretty insanely expensive.
It is? With THAT climate? Wow.
And here I speak from experience. I've been to Ontario in the winter. OMG. It is unspeakable. Hideous. Everyone lives underground (literally) from November-March.
My god, people will clearly pay a lot JUST for an English speaking city with political stability.
The Canadian government has courted Chinese property investment.
Not a proper winter? Have you been there in winter???
The Toronto average is zero or subzero MAXIMUM for three solid months. And the lows can go to fatal levels: -23C. These are inhuman temperatures, literally lethal if you are outdoors and not entirely cocooned.
My brother moved to the outskirts of Toronto for a few years. The winters broke him. He first learned his lesson when, as a Cornishman used to a mild 9C on a winter day, he went for a cycle on a "brisk" Canadian day in November and his eyeballs literally froze.
And then, he said, there was the snow shovelling. Every fucking day, for about five months.
He eventually moved to Vancouver, and eventually moved to Peru, where he is now. Weather was a significant factor.
Believe it or not, Toronto's weather is positively mild compared to Winnipeg or Edmonton.
It will be all over by then thout least 17,410,742 of them.
Plus don't forget 16, 141, 241 voted Remain too
So who proposes the legislation?
Backbenchers, the opposition etc.
I wonder if you ever take a newspaper report or opinion poll as anything other than gospel
Sometimes a degree of cynicism is wise
This was not a newspaper report or poll it was a Parliament
And you fall for it
For goodness sake BigG look at the facts, if there is no permanent backstop we crash out with No Deal, basta, finito.
May knows that and May will do the necessary cave (even if it is hedged by some condition or test to be met before it ceases to apply)
Do not hection
Don't go getting all higxit diehards
I have been wholly opposed to no deal as you well know - indeed throughout the time you were full on Boris, the one person who told Airbus to FO
I find it increasingly difficult to be on the same page due to your inability to see that at times your arguments are flawed
Except you fail to see the logic that without a NI backstop the inevitable result will be No Deal.
The fact I think Boris is a general election winner does not mean I want him leading the negotiations now (he also never told Airbus specifically to FO, just attacked business leaders he felt were attacking Brexit)
He told Airbus to FO. And he is just one big loser.
It will be all over by then thout least 17,410,742 of them.
Plus don't forget 16, 141, 241 voted Remain too
So who proposes the legislation?
Backbenchers, the opposition etc.
I wonder if you ever take a newspaper report or opinion poll as anything other than gospel
Sometimes a degree of cynicism is wise
This was not a newspaper report or poll it was a Parliament
And you fall for it
For goodness sake BigG look at the facts, if there is no permanent backstop we crash out with No Deal, basta, finito.
May knows that and May will do the necessary cave (even if it is hedged by some condition or test to be met before it ceases to apply)
Do not hection
Don't go getting all higxit diehards
I have been wholly opposed to no deal as you well know - indeed throughout the time you were full on Boris, the one person who told Airbus to FO
I find it increasingly difficult to be on the same page due to your inability to see that at times your arguments are flawed
Except you fail to see the logic that without a NI backstop the inevitable result will be No Deal.
The fact I think Boris is a general election winner does not mean I want him leading the negotiations now (he also never told Airbus specifically to FO, just attacked business leaders he felt were attacking Brexit)
He told Airbus to FO. And he is just one big loser.
No he did not, Boris never specifically mentioned Airbus once.
Yet while you obsess about this point we have a month to agree the NI backstop or it will be Crash out No Deal Brexit and bye bye Airbus!
61% of Northern Ireland voters want to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union.
In the event of a 'hard' Brexit more than 50% of Catholics say they would vote for a United Ireland compared to less than a third while NI remains in the EU.
Yet you continue with your absurd finger in your ears No Deal Brexit fanaticism claiming somehow a backstop which is backed by most NI voters and protects the Good Friday Agreement is a threat to the Union when it is blatantly obvious that it is No Deal which poses the threat to both the Union and the economy
Interesting conclusions from that survey, and not what I expected. Protestants have a somewhat higher tolerance of checks on the Irish land border. But that's because Catholics REALLY hate the idea. When it comes to an Irish Sea border both sects dislike checks equally. The reasonably broad consensus is the only acceptable outcome is the whole UK he staying in the SM+CU.
It will be all over by then thout least 17,410,742 of them.
Plus don't forget 16, 141, 241 voted Remain too
So who proposes the legislation?
Backbenchers, the opposition etc.
I wonder if you ever take a newspaper report or opinion poll as anything other than gospel
Sometimes a degree of cynicism is wise
This was not a newspaper report or poll it was a Parliament
And you fall for it
For goodness sake BigG look at the facts, if there is no permanent backstop we crash out with No Deal, basta, finito.
May knows that and May will do the necessary cave (even if it is hedged by some condition or test to be met before it ceases to apply)
Do not hection
Don't go getting all higxit diehards
I have been wholly opposed to no deal as you well know - indeed throughout the time you were full on Boris, the one person who told Airbus to FO
I find it increasingly difficult to be on the same page due to your inability to see that at times your arguments are flawed
Except you fail to see the logic that without a NI backstop the inevitable result will be No Deal.
The fact I think Boris is a general election winner does not mean I want him leading the negotiations now (he also never told Airbus specifically to FO, just attacked business leaders he felt were attacking Brexit)
He told Airbus to FO. And he is just one big loser.
No he did not, Boris never specifically mentioned Airbus one.
Yet while you obsess about this pointless point we have a month to agree the NI backstop or it will be Crash out Brexit and bye bye Airbus!
You really have lost it.
Not only did I hear him so did the Airbus workers and it is widely attributed to him
Extraordinary. Our civil servants won’t plan for Brexit on the say so of our previous prime minister, but they will plan for something that has been expressly ruled out by the current prime minister.
It stinks.
Probably since the latter involves a couple of meetings, and the former th expenditure of billions ? The smell is only in your nostrils.
It will be all over by then thout least 17,410,742 of them.
Plus don't forget 16, 141, 241 voted Remain too
So who proposes the legislation?
Backbenchers, the opposition etc.
I wonder if you ever take a newspaper report or opinion poll as anything other than gospel
Sometimes a degree of cynicism is wise
This was not a newspaper report or poll it was a Parliament
And you fall for it
For goodness sake BigG lses to apply)
Do not hection
Don't go getting all higxit diehards
I have been wholly oppawed
Except you fail to see the logic that without a NI backstop the inevitable result will be No Deal.
The fact I think Boris is a general election winner does not mean I want him leading the negotiations now (he also never told Airbus specifically to FO, just attacked business leaders he felt were attacking Brexit)
He told Airbus to FO. And he is just one big loser.
No he did not, Boris never specifically mentioned Airbus one.
Yet while you obsess about this pointless point we have a month to agree the NI backstop or it will be Crash out Brexit and bye bye Airbus!
You really have lost it.
Not only did I hear him so did the Airbus workers and it is widely attributed to him
No, he used it at a diplomatic meeting in his own words to 'express scepticism about those who speak up for business.'
And yet again you miss the main point, if no backstop is agreed in a month it is No Deal Brexit and bye bye Airbus!
It will be all over by then thout least 17,410,742 of them.
Plus don't forget 16, 141, 241 voted Remain too
So who proposes the legislation?
Backbenchers, the opposition etc.
And you fall for it
May knows that and May will do the necessary cave (even if it is hedged by some condition or test to be met before it ceases to apply)
Do not hection
Don't go getting all higxit diehards
I have been wholly opposed to no deal as you well know - indeed throughout the time you were full on Boris, the one person who told Airbus to FO
I find it increasingly difficult to be on the same page due to your inability to see that at times your arguments are flawed
Except you fail to see the logic that without a NI backstop the inevitable result will be No Deal.
The fact I think Boris is a general election winner does not mean I want him leading the negotiations now (he also never told Airbus specifically to FO, just attacked business leaders he felt were attacking Brexit)
He told Airbus to FO. And he is just one big loser.
No he did not, Boris never specifically mentioned Airbus one.
Yet while you obsess about this pointless point we have a month to agree the NI backstop or it will be Crash out Brexit and bye bye Airbus!
You really have lost it.
Not only did I hear him so did the Airbus workers and it is widely attributed to him
HYUFD's one man 'backstop at all costs' play is, hilariously, at odds with:
- The PM's own statements in the HoC of last week. - The cabinet's position - The Tory party - The Commons - The DUP - Ruth Davidson
All based on one single VI poll based on a hypothetical.
It is desperate stuff.
Keep being polite and objective Mr G, its a breath of fresh air!
61% of Northern Ireland voters want to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union.
In the event of a 'hard' Brexit more than 50% of Catholics say they would vote for a United Ireland compared to less than a third while NI remains in the EU.
Yet you continue with your absurd finger in your ears No Deal Brexit fanaticism claiming somehow a backstop which is backed by most NI voters and protects the Good Friday Agreement is a threat to the Union when it is blatantly obvious that it is No Deal which poses the threat to both the Union and the economy
Interesting conclusions from that survey, and not what I expected. Protestants have a somewhat higher tolerance of checks on the Irish land border. But that's because Catholics REALLY hate the idea. When it comes to an Irish Sea border both sects dislike checks equally. The reasonably broad consensus is the only acceptable outcome is the whole UK he staying in the SM+CU.
As long as NI stays in the SM and CU that is unlikely to be an issue, the UK will be in the SM and CU anyway if the backstop is agreed and during the transition period.
In any case on a forced choice 84.9% in NI including 75% of Protestants and 94% of Catholics back a 'soft Brexit' for either the UK OR just NI while just 15% back a 'hard Brexit' for the whole UK (p33). Though yes a 'soft Brexit' for the whole UK were it to be possible is the preferred option of 61% of those in NI, a 'hard Brexit' for GB and a 'soft Brexit' for NI the preference of 23% and just 15% want a 'hard Brexit' for the whole UK
It will be all over by then thout least 17,410,742 of them.
Plus don't forget 16, 141, 241 voted Remain too
So who proposes the legislation?
Backbenchers, the opposition etc.
And you fall for it
May knows that and May will do the necessary cave (even if it is hedged by some condition or test to be met before it ceases to apply)
Do not hection
Don't go getting all higxit diehards
I have been wholly opposed to no deal as you well know - indeed throughout the time you were full on Boris, the one person who told Airbus to FO
I find it increasingly difficult to be on the same page due to your inability to see that at times your arguments are flawed
Except you fail to seg Brexit)
He told Airbus to FO. And he is just one big loser.
No he did not, Boris never specificbye Airbus!
id the Airbus workers and it is widely attributed to him
HYUFD's one man 'backstop at all costs' play is, hilariously, at odds with:
- The PM's own statements in the HoC of last week. - The cabinet's position - The Tory party - The Commons - The DUP - Ruth Davidson
All based on one single VI poll based on a hypothetical.
It is desperate stuff.
Keep being polite and objective Mr G, its a breath of fresh air!
Read the poll details below, it is you determined to impose a 'hard Brexit' for the whole UK on Northern Ireland against the wishes of the vast majority of NI voters not me.
If you and your fellow No Deal Brexiteer backers block the backstop and lead to No Deal and ultimately end the Union do not say you were not warned!
It is poignant, how life moves on so swiftly. So brutally.
If don for EUref2 today was a warning shot that we need a Deal
It will be all over by then though, they would need to start a re-join campaign which could take years and will the EU even still exist in say 20 years time?
Also there would need to be at least 17,410,742 of them.
Plus don't forget 16, 141, 241 voted Remain too
So who proposes the legislation?
Baceeded, May will get the Withdrawal Agreement and Transition Period.
I wonder if you ever take a newspaper report or opinion poll as anything other than gospel
Sometimes a degree of cynicism is wise
This was
And you fall for it
For goodness sake BigG look at the facts, if there is no permanent backstop we crash out with No Deal, basta, finito.
May knows that and May will do the necessary cave (even if it is hedged by some condition or test to be met before it ceases to apply)
Do not hector me.
You are entitled to your opinions but that is what they are
I do not trust a lot of your facts, as all the years I was in business and my nterest in poltics I have always sought out second opinions
I was invited to stand for the party in the Welsh Assembly elections yesterday but unfortunately that ship has sailed. Ironically I was asked when I was 22 to stand for the party for Caernarfonshire CC. Unfortunately that was when I was building a business and having my children
If I had been elected to office I would have been very thorough in making decisions based on many sources of information
And, Sir, I think you would have made a fine politician. Thoughtful, intelligent, even-handed. experienced in business, and so on. You are always a sane voice on PB.
It is sad that smart "ordinary" people like you DON'T go into politics and it is either mad cranks like Corbyn or entitled toffs like Cameron that DO. This is the great tragedy of British politics, over the last 50 years. We've lost the voice of the intelligent yet regular citizen, with experience of real working life.
That is indeed entirely shocking. How long can Labour tolerate this? Opposing Brexit is an open goal, a match-winning open goal, that Corbyn refuses to score.
Because he doesn't want to score it.
Why isn't this blindingly obvious to, like, everybody?
That is indeed entirely shocking. How long can Labour tolerate this? Opposing Brexit is an open goal, a match-winning open goal, that Corbyn refuses to score.
The corbyn tactic is clearly to use Brexit/Remain to break the tory party asunder.
Given FPTP and the Liberal 1920-30 experience of substantial votes/few seats, this is likely an efficacious method
Why would he commit to Leave or Remain when he can straddle both horses right into Power?
For the record, I am officially having a midlife crisis.
If we go to No Deal I think the same can be said of half the Tory Party
You need to dial down your incessant no deal campaigning on here.
It's becoming remarkably tedious. If you want to be convincing you need to be less shrill and use more discretion in judging when to mention it.
I am sorry. No Deal could wreck the economy and the Union.
We have a month to stop it and while you may be happy to serenely sail into it I most certainly am not and when I am on this site I will continue to make that abundantly clear
For the record, I am officially having a midlife crisis.
If we go to No Deal I think the same can be said of half the Tory Party
You need to dial down your incessant no deal campaigning on here.
It's becoming remarkably tedious. If you want to be convincing you need to be less shrill and use more discretion in judging when to mention it.
I am sorry. No Deal could wreck the economy and the Union.
We have a month to stop it and while you may be happy to serenely sail into it I most certainly am not and when I am on this site I will continue to make that abundantly clear
For the record, I am officially having a midlife crisis.
If we go to No Deal I think the same can be said of half the Tory Party
You need to dial down your incessant no deal campaigning on here.
It's becoming remarkably tedious. If you want to be convincing you need to be less shrill and use more discretion in judging when to mention it.
I am sorry. No Deal could wreck the economy and the Union.
We have a month to stop it and while you may be happy to serenely sail into it I most certainly am not and when I am on this site I will continue to make that abundantly clear
Seriously, can you give it a rest?
Sadly No.
As seen today when the 'People's Vote' march had 5 times the size of the last one if hardline Brexiteers continue to insist on refusing the NI backstop and pushing the hardest possible Brexit despite the potential damage it may cause then Remainers will not be silenced but will push back as hard as they can.
I am a Tory but I also voted Remain as did over 40% of Tory voters at the time, we will accept a sane Brexit but the need to stop a No Deal Brexit crosses party lines
When you buy a flat in London you are competing with rich Brazilians, Chinese, Indians, Russians, Nigerians, Kazakhs, Germans, Japanese, etc, who aren't just investing, but actually want to live here, part of the time, or at least have their kids live here, and go to UK universities.
Repeal the planning laws, people will build more flats for the rich people, and the prices will go down.
If they really wanted to impress, or astonish, then half a million people should have dressed in black and marched in total silence through Sunderland or Macclesfield or Stoke. THAT would have been different. THAT would have been moving.
Macclesfield? The Surrey of the North? Have you ever been there?
But I take your point. As I said yesterday, it's actually difficult for a march to change anything or even change opinions. It does raise salience and makes it harder for decisions to drift through unchallenged, and that was really the point.
I confess I have never been to Macclesfield. Is it nice? I've always imagined it as some dingy northern toilet, like Moss Side. Apologies to Macclesfield.
On that point, as a bigoted southerner I am quite often surprised by how nice many dour-sounding northern towns turn out to be. Hexham, for instance, is utterly gorgeous, even if it sounds like it must be inhabited by sullen witches and zombie miners.
Mcclesfield is rather posh and very pretty - lots of light brownstone architecture, a market town surrounded by pleasant housing in rolling countryside. (I know it because the company I used to work for, Ciba-Geigy, had a branch there.) They cheerfully elected Sir Nicholas Winterton for many years, who was (and presumably still is, in retirement) an old school right-wing Tory.
Your idea of half a million middle-class Remainers marching through it, munching quinoa, has a pleasingly surreal flavour.
Having lived there, Macclesfield is a bit odd - it's a former mill town with a working class community similar to say Bolton or Oldham, and some of the housing estates are properly rough. Then a couple of miles up the road is Bollington and Prestbury, with some of the most expensive real estate in the country outside the south east, and the associated crowd of toffs and spivs.
What is hasn't got as much of is anything in between - in five years of living and working there, I got to know quite a selection of the working class, and some of the toffs, but barely met anyone "middle class".
(these days I live over the hill in Buxton - which is much more middle class!
My forecast is that the Democratic primaries are going to be insanely crowded. There could easily be a dozen declared runners for the first TV debate. It's quite possible that we'll have a "leaders", and an "others" debate.
According to David Axelrod, the first debates will be next quarter, so presumably in March 2019. So, in all likelihood we'll see the likely runners declare themselves between now and the end of January.
I should do a thread on it... I would note that if you look at the Democrat nominees going back to '76, the party seems to swing between going for well known candidates and almost total unknowns:
'16 - Clinton, clear favourite two years before '08 - Obama, "who?" two years before '04 - Kerry, well known Senator, but not favourite '00 - Gore, clear favourite two years before '92 - Clinton, a relative unknown two years before * '88 - Dukakis, would have been one of the favourites two years before, but not the favourite ** '84 - Mondale, clear favourite '76 - Carter, "who?" two years before
* Paul Tsongas and Jerry Brown were much more nationally well known ** New York Governor Cumomo would have been favourite
My forecast is that the Democratic primaries are going to be insanely crowded. There could easily be a dozen declared runners for the first TV debate. It's quite possible that we'll have a "leaders", and an "others" debate.
According to David Axelrod, the first debates will be next quarter, so presumably in March 2019. So, in all likelihood we'll see the likely runners declare themselves between now and the end of January.
I should do a thread on it... I would note that if you look at the Democrat nominees going back to '76, the party seems to swing between going for well known candidates and almost total unknowns:
'16 - Clinton, clear favourite two years before '08 - Obama, "who?" two years before '04 - Kerry, well known Senator, but not favourite '00 - Gore, clear favourite two years before '92 - Clinton, a relative unknown two years before * '88 - Dukakis, would have been one of the favourites two years before, but not the favourite ** '84 - Mondale, clear favourite '76 - Carter, "who?" two years before
* Paul Tsongas and Jerry Brown were much more nationally well known ** New York Governor Cumomo would have been favourite
If they really wanted to impress, or astonish, then half a million people should have dressed in black and marched in total silence through Sunderland or Macclesfield or Stoke. THAT would have been different. THAT would have been moving.
Macclesfield? The Surrey of the North? Have you ever been there?
But I take your point. As I said yesterday, it's actually difficult for a march to change anything or even change opinions. It does raise salience and makes it harder for decisions to drift through unchallenged, and that was really the point.
I confess I have never been to Macclesfield. Is it nice? I've always imagined it as some dingy northern toilet, like Moss Side. Apologies to Macclesfield.
On that point, as a bigoted southerner I am quite often surprised by how nice many dour-sounding northern towns turn out to be. Hexham, for instance, is utterly gorgeous, even if it sounds like it must be inhabited by sullen witches and zombie miners.
Mcclesfield is rather posh and very pretty - lots of light brownstone architecture, a market town surrounded by pleasant housing in rolling countryside. (I know it because the company I used to work for, Ciba-Geigy, had a branch there.) They cheerfully elected Sir Nicholas Winterton for many years, who was (and presumably still is, in retirement) an old school right-wing Tory.
Your idea of half a million middle-class Remainers marching through it, munching quinoa, has a pleasingly surreal flavour.
Having lived there, Macclesfield is a bit odd - it's a former mill town with a working class community similar to say Bolton or Oldham, and some of the housing estates are properly rough. Then a couple of miles up the road is Bollington and Prestbury, with some of the most expensive real estate in the country outside the south east, and the associated crowd of toffs and spivs.
What is hasn't got as much of is anything in between - in five years of living and working there, I got to know quite a selection of the working class, and some of the toffs, but barely met anyone "middle class".
(these days I live over the hill in Buxton - which is much more middle class!
I'll hopefully be walking between Buxton and Macc on Tuesday - taking in the highest points of Staffordshire and Cheshire on the way.
If they really wanted to impress, or astonish, then half a million people should have dressed in black and marched in total silence through Sunderland or Macclesfield or Stoke. THAT would have been different. THAT would have been moving.
Macclesfield? The Surrey of the North? Have you ever been there?
But I take your point. As I said yesterday, it's actually difficult for a march to change anything or even change opinions. It does raise salience and makes it harder for decisions to drift through unchallenged, and that was really the point.
I confess I have never been to Macclesfield. Is it nice? I've always imagined it as some dingy northern toilet, like Moss Side. Apologies to Macclesfield.
On that point, as a bigoted southerner I am quite often surprised by how nice many dour-sounding northern towns turn out to be. Hexham, for instance, is utterly gorgeous, even if it sounds like it must be inhabited by sullen witches and zombie miners.
Mcclesfield is rather posh and very pretty - lots of light brownstone architecture, a market town surrounded by pleasant housing in rolling countryside. (I know it because the company I used to work for, Ciba-Geigy, had a branch there.) They cheerfully elected Sir Nicholas Winterton for many years, who was (and presumably still is, in retirement) an old school right-wing Tory.
Your idea of half a million middle-class Remainers marching through it, munching quinoa, has a pleasingly surreal flavour.
Having lived there, Macclesfield is a bit odd - it's a former mill town with a working class community similar to say Bolton or Oldham, and some of the housing estates are properly rough. Then a couple of miles up the road is Bollington and Prestbury, with some of the most expensive real estate in the country outside the south east, and the associated crowd of toffs and spivs.
What is hasn't got as much of is anything in between - in five years of living and working there, I got to know quite a selection of the working class, and some of the toffs, but barely met anyone "middle class".
(these days I live over the hill in Buxton - which is much more middle class!
I'll hopefully be walking between Buxton and Macc on Tuesday - taking in the highest points of Staffordshire and Cheshire on the way.
I'll hopefully be walking between Buxton and Macc on Tuesday - taking in the highest points of Staffordshire and Cheshire on the way.
Welcome to this lovely part of the country.
A but late to reply, but thanks. I've done both county tops before (Shining Tor was actually the first walk for my website). Nearly twenty years and 1020-odd walks later, I'm returning.
I'm also hoping to take in Shutlingsloe and Tegg's Nose on the same walk, neither of which I've done before.
Sadly, though, I hear that the Cat and Fiddle is closed. I had some good times in that place.
Comments
Its six of one, half a dozen of the other - staying in the EU customs union will, for example, mess up the entire antiques trade because of planned bizarre import restrictions.
More bollocks!
Riiiight.
https://twitter.com/BrexitBin/status/1053723846535192579
And, Sir, I think you would have made a fine politician. Thoughtful, intelligent, even-handed. experienced in business, and so on. You are always a sane voice on PB.
It is sad that smart "ordinary" people like you DON'T go into politics and it is either mad cranks like Corbyn or entitled toffs like Cameron that DO. This is the great tragedy of British politics, over the last 50 years. We've lost the voice of the intelligent yet regular citizen, with experience of real working life.
@seant....a very nice, complimentary post about one of pbCOM's voices of reasons.
I've become very fond of bigG of late...
I tend to lurk nowadays....I'm still political but have nowhere to go at the minute with very little prospect of anywhere to go anytime soon....
Private Member bills are limited to a small number. The MPs are selected by ballot and must submit their bills well in advance.
The list of bills for the current session is below:
https://services.parliament.uk/bills/ballot.html
I do try to contribute on this forum, as it is such a fantastic place to learn from others, put your own observations forward without resorting to rancour, and hopefully add to the debates.
If you think you can call their bluff you will soon discover you were wrong
It stinks.
For example some bright graduate moves to London expecting to be 'the next big thing' and to live the world city lifestyle.
A few years later they're still renting a room in Walthamstow, heavily in debt, having inequality rubbed in their face as they see other people live the big lifestyle but with no hope of it themselves while meanwhile back in their home town people their age are buying houses and have a much better quality of life.
It must lead to some frustration and bitterness for the Corbyns of today and the future to harness.
Your idea of half a million middle-class Remainers marching through it, munching quinoa, has a pleasingly surreal flavour.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macclesfield
Simple as.
"Civil servants have to prepare for every eventuality".... yeah....
An EUref private members bill will likely swiftly rise to the top of the private members ballot
He was so cold he stuck his arms up to the shoulder in a local cow to benefit from her body warmth...
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
And once the member has listed their bill they are done until the next ballot.
Fundamentally there can’t be a second referendum unless the government gives a bill time.
I find it increasingly difficult to be on the same page due to your inability to see that at times your arguments are flawed
The next ballot for a Private Members Bill will be held in May 2019.
So it isn’t an option.
https://beta.parliament.uk/articles/nUOZsVdm
May has said the government will give Parliament time to decide the course of action if No Deal
That said, you are right that if a majority of the House really wants something, they have ample ways of making the Government's life absolutely impossible until they get it, without actually bringing the Government down.
The fact I think Boris is a general election winner does not mean I want him leading the negotiations now (he also never told Airbus specifically to FO, just attacked business leaders he felt were attacking Brexit)
Have a pleasant nights rest everyone
Good night folks
Yet while you obsess about this point we have a month to agree the NI backstop or it will be Crash out No Deal Brexit and bye bye Airbus!
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
2h2 hours ago
Germany, Emnid poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 25% (-1)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 19% (+2)
SPD-S&D: 15% (-2)
AfD-EFDD: 15%
LINKE-LEFT: 10% (-1)
FDP-ALDE: 10% (+1)
Field work: 11/10/18 – 17/10/18
Sample size: 1,609"
Not only did I hear him so did the Airbus workers and it is widely attributed to him
The smell is only in your nostrils.
And yet again you miss the main point, if no backstop is agreed in a month it is No Deal Brexit and bye bye Airbus!
That is not 'losing it' that is the facts
- The PM's own statements in the HoC of last week.
- The cabinet's position
- The Tory party
- The Commons
- The DUP
- Ruth Davidson
All based on one single VI poll based on a hypothetical.
It is desperate stuff.
Keep being polite and objective Mr G, its a breath of fresh air!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/19/tory-rightwingers-seek-to-embarrass-may-over-high-powered-rifles-ban
Lol.
In any case on a forced choice 84.9% in NI including 75% of Protestants and 94% of Catholics back a 'soft Brexit' for either the UK OR just NI while just 15% back a 'hard Brexit' for the whole UK (p33). Though yes a 'soft Brexit' for the whole UK were it to be possible is the preferred option of 61% of those in NI, a 'hard Brexit' for GB and a 'soft Brexit' for NI the preference of 23% and just 15% want a 'hard Brexit' for the whole UK
https://www.qub.ac.uk/sites/brexitni/BrexitandtheBorder/Report/Filetoupload,820734,en.pdf
If you and your fellow No Deal Brexiteer backers block the backstop and lead to No Deal and ultimately end the Union do not say you were not warned!
I'd vote for him!
Why isn't this blindingly obvious to, like, everybody?
It's becoming remarkably tedious. If you want to be convincing you need to be less shrill and use more discretion in judging when to mention it.
Given FPTP and the Liberal 1920-30 experience of substantial votes/few seats, this is likely an efficacious method
Why would he commit to Leave or Remain when he can straddle both horses right into Power?
We have a month to stop it and while you may be happy to serenely sail into it I most certainly am not and when I am on this site I will continue to make that abundantly clear
As seen today when the 'People's Vote' march had 5 times the size of the last one if hardline Brexiteers continue to insist on refusing the NI backstop and pushing the hardest possible Brexit despite the potential damage it may cause then Remainers will not be silenced but will push back as hard as they can.
I am a Tory but I also voted Remain as did over 40% of Tory voters at the time, we will accept a sane Brexit but the need to stop a No Deal Brexit crosses party lines
https://twitter.com/WOTGM18/status/1053760438545141761
https://www.nytimes.com
What is hasn't got as much of is anything in between - in five years of living and working there, I got to know quite a selection of the working class, and some of the toffs, but barely met anyone "middle class".
(these days I live over the hill in Buxton - which is much more middle class!
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/19/tulsi-gabbard-2020-presidential-bid-917418
According to David Axelrod, the first debates will be next quarter, so presumably in March 2019. So, in all likelihood we'll see the likely runners declare themselves between now and the end of January.
I should do a thread on it... I would note that if you look at the Democrat nominees going back to '76, the party seems to swing between going for well known candidates and almost total unknowns:
'16 - Clinton, clear favourite two years before
'08 - Obama, "who?" two years before
'04 - Kerry, well known Senator, but not favourite
'00 - Gore, clear favourite two years before
'92 - Clinton, a relative unknown two years before *
'88 - Dukakis, would have been one of the favourites two years before, but not the favourite **
'84 - Mondale, clear favourite
'76 - Carter, "who?" two years before
* Paul Tsongas and Jerry Brown were much more nationally well known
** New York Governor Cumomo would have been favourite
A but late to reply, but thanks. I've done both county tops before (Shining Tor was actually the first walk for my website). Nearly twenty years and 1020-odd walks later, I'm returning.
I'm also hoping to take in Shutlingsloe and Tegg's Nose on the same walk, neither of which I've done before.
Sadly, though, I hear that the Cat and Fiddle is closed. I had some good times in that place.