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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Whatever the numbers today’s march will reinforce both CON and LAB anti-Brexit MPs
Inevitably there are massively different estimates of how many people have been marching in London today against Brexit but judging by the TV pictures it does seem to be very large. Whether it’s up to the anti Iraq war demonstrations of 2003 I don’t know but it’s still pretty substantial.
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https://twitter.com/peoplesvote_uk/status/1053628358536429568?s=20
But that aside, it should be fairly quiet on the political front.
Gove's right, the referendum created a new/strong pro EU movement in this country, and he's right, if Brexit turns into a disaster this movement will be primed to take us back in.
Those on the losing side are often more fired up. Just from a psychological perspective, if we do have another vote and choose to remain it'd be interesting to see how, and how soon, they'd deploy a 'we've settled the issue, now let's unite' line.
If we do leave and things go poorly, many of those who wanted to leave (assuming we have no deal, if we have one, May will be blame for capitulation) will blame hardline EU-philes for batting for the other side.
As for fear, there are worse things than that. If the electorate are taught democracy means asking the electorate until they give the 'right' answer that will have profoundly negative consequences for the body politic. Not only that, the political class will have learnt the pesky voters can't be trusted, massively reducing the chances of any future referendum being offered by mainstream parties (and the far left socialist organisation squatting on the Opposition benches currently).
The delayed qualifying is apparently due to the cretins in charge having the concert before rather than after qualifying. Nincompoops.
Peoples vote are being advised on spin by Alastair Campbell. He's worked out (correctly) that it matters little whether the headline numbers are 80,000 or 240,000. What happens is the game of expectations management.
He's doing a reverse bus. He knew correctly that turnout today would be well north of 200k, but the spin was over a hundred thousand until just a couple of hours ago. It was just a question of how to pitch the number and when.
We know this because they declared turnout too early and too accurately, at exactly 570k, by lunchtime. It doesn't matter whether it's 500k, or 300k now. And debating it from Leavers will just keep the story in the headlines. And the story will be "exceeded all expectations" now when, actually, this was precisely their expectation all along.
Clever. They are being advised expertly on PR.
But then again it does seem as though each side is its own worst enemy sometimes. Some purist Brexiteers are so desperate for proper Brexit they may unintentionally scupper hope of any Brexit (in fairness some may intentionally do that, thinking no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit), while others who pretend they will do anything to stop no deal (pretend because they won't actually vote for any deal, making their protests hollow) make see no no deal happen as they chase an ultimate prize of Remain.
And that is really May's problem - since all options really are still on the table, some more plausibly than others, there's no reason for continuity remainers to vote for a deal, and no reason for Brexiteers to vote for a deal, since both think they can get what they want instead.
Today’s march will not change anyone’s mind. All it will do is consolidate existing views on both sides.
A big march but very far from the biggest ever.
We had a referendum, and the people voted to leave. That trumps any protest.
https://twitter.com/peoplesvote_uk/status/1053647281239572480
Mob rule. No thanks.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
But I'd agree with the view that quibbling over the precise numbers is not really worth it for opponents. Unless the organisers are out by a significant factor, say by half, and they can be labelled as Trump like to be mocked for overegging it, there is enough truth to say it is very big, whether it is, say, 400k or 700k. The same arguments will continue to apply for or against a second referendum whichever is correct.
No deal will worry some a lot, but for others they'll be glad of the opportunity to leave. May's capitulation would be worse than either staying or leaving.
Of course, we'll never know which one of us is right, but that's what I think.
And, if there is to be another vote, it must be next year. Any later than that, and my bet won't come off.
That's the thing I find tedious about marches and political rallies - it looks like people are having a jolly good time, and they get very fired up and are an admirable reflection of people getting passionate about a party or cause...but while it might end up aligning with what the people as a whole would do, the certainty that that will be the case is often unfounded.
Things have changed, we don't have to cut off our nose to spite our face.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/patricksmith/nobody-said-it-was-easy
Interesting.
Or for that matter the number of people from other EU countries who live in London.
No Deal or New Referendum.
Are there any Brexiteers (Wrexiteers) who campaigned for No Deal?
Just two hours ago, Charles of this parish was speculating it would be “less than 20,000”.
What a muppet.
My guess, and it's of the wild-ass variety is that whatever sack of shit May brings before parliament will be voted through. But there are any number of cups 'twixt lip and sip here, and my honest view is, I don't know what will happen, second referendum or no.
If No Deal Remain have a real chance of reversing Brexit in EUref2 early next year.
We shall see anyway
It’s incredibly tedious.
The point is is that upwards of half a million feel passionately enough about the clusterfuck that is Brexit to get of their arse and protest about it.
We haven't had that recession or the refugee camps at Dover so confidently predicted by Remainers.
The reality is that we tend to do mediocrity in this country and where the government is involved lots of posturing and inattention to detail.
That was the situation before the Referendum, would have been the situation if Remain had won and will continue to be the situation however the future plays out.
And personally I'm annoyed that a second referendum is clearly, for many, just a proxy for wanting to remain. If it is actually about confirming things it would be nice it things were more welcoming of deal supporters or even no dealers who want to extra confirm they are happy to go (though granted the latter are likely a smaller grouping).
Even I as a die-hard Remainer can see this.
And yet still they come out to march, potentially in numbers not seen since the Iraq War.
And the pressure for another referendum will be become significant.
Ironic if the ERG help to cause this....
But that is not actually entirely unreasonable. If they think the wrong type of Brexit is so bad then they should oppose it, even if that risks remaining and bringing down the government. Similarly if people genuinely think no deal is apocalyptic then they should be much more open to backing even a crappy deal, even if that ensures the survival of the government (for now).
Plus while the crowd is I am sure very anti-Brexit it is not the case that everyone who wants a second vote would back remain.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-12879582
The seeds of the current debacle were sown in the referendum campaign that Leavers happily fell in behind. Winning with xenophobic lies was the catastrophe. The detail might have been finessed better but the trap was sprung then.
To be comparable you’d need to be 10x as large,,,
Was there a man dismayed?
Not though the soldier knew
Someone had blundered.
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
That said, there's some weakness in ContinuityRemain caused by the refusal of some to accept the result almost from the first day.
Mr. Charles, quite. I still fully expect a rancid capitulation by May.