£500k in Morden is a normal 3 bed semi give or take.
In 1990 that would have been about 70-80k. (Family member who bought similar in 1991).
So in the 30 years between 1960 and 1990 it increased around 15 times. In the 28 years between 1990 and 2018 it increased around 6-7 times.
Hmmm.
Plausible, sadly. The 70's were a time of high inflation (>10%) and houses kept up. Then there was the Lawson boom (88-90?), then things stabilized, then ERM dropout dropped a bit, then, boom 97-04, then we should have had a dip but Brown interferered, so boom again 04-07, then 20% fall in 2008, then back up by 10% in 2009 (Brown again), then house prices were flat 2010-2012? until Osborne brought in right-to-buy, then small boom again. I haven't kept up for about two years so I can't really tell you 2017-date.
Just so everyone knows, the Brexit march is the lead story on CNN in the US.
Only kidding, it doesn't even get a mention.
We've become a 'take it from them and give it to me' society.
The failure of the economy to 'life all boats' meant that for some to get richer wealth had to be transferred from others.
To justify this wealth transfer it was easier to demonise those from whom it was being taken.
Its a process which began about 15 years ago - when levels of home ownership started falling being a good indicator of a changing society.
It is an entitlement society where many younger people feel entitled to everything without having to strive or work for it.
My children in their forties do not feel like that so I guess it is those in their thirties and younger.
Perhaps brought about by a culture instilled by teachers and easy exams where no one fails - not sure.
Of course some people in every generation are entitled - but I think it's disingenuous to say that the problems that young people face nowadays are due to some kind of moral failing.
When he was 22, my grandfather was able to get a job in an aircraft factory immediately after leaving university (which was free) paying the inflation adjusted equivalent of about £35,000. He was then able to rent a house in a nice part of the country for about 1/6th of his monthly wage. He was able to save up enough for a mortgage on a semi-detached house at about 3x annual wage.
I'm 22 now and I've just got a job in London after putting in three years of unpaid voluntary work to build the experience I needed to qualify. I'm earning £22,500, but I'm paying almost 1/2 of that after taxes on rent, and even if I were to geying at 21k). Even if I were able to put aside money for a mortgage, I'd be looking at at something around 10x my annual wage.
There are obviously severe structural problems in our economy. No matter how unentitled I am, I'm not going to be able to afford a semi detached house anytime soon. I want to settle down and get on with life - but right now I don't see how I can.
Let me get this straight. You have voluntarily opted to work in a field which requires 3 years of unpaid voluntary work, after 3 years at university, leading to a salary that, although not very low by National standards, does not permit a very good standard of living in London. You have freely chosen to do this, but complain about the consequences of your choices.
This is what irritates people about millennials.
The point is that this generation has much worse options to "freely choose" between than boomers did
Just so everyone knows, the Brexit march is the lead story on CNN in the US.
Only kidding, it doesn't even get a mention.
More seriously, the Brexit march demonstrates that the wounds from Brexit will not heal easily.
The arguments we're having with Brussels are not the problem. In time, the UK and the EU will realise that they need to have a productive relationship, because it is both their best interests.
The problems we're having are internal. And part of the problem is that the political class is obsessed with the negotiations. We've perhaps never had a government so lacking in dialog with their own population.
I don't know what the solution is, because there Theresa May is emotionally unable to connect with people, and the negotiations are entering their final leg.
We've become a 'take it from them and give it to me' society.
The failure of the economy to 'life all boats' meant that for some to get richer wealth had to be transferred from others.
To justify this wealth transfer it was easier to demonise those from whom it was being taken.
Its a process which began about 15 years ago - when levels of home ownership started falling being a good indicator of a changing society.
It is an entitlement society where many younger people feel entitled to everything without having to strive or work for it.
My children in their forties do not feel like that so I guess it is those in their thirties and younger.
Perhaps brought about by a culture instilled by teachers and easy exams where no one fails - not sure.
I've just read a superb book by Will Storr called Selfie which discusses those types of things. One of the best I've read in the last five years. The first 50 pages are about ancient Greece and the next 50 about Christianity in the middle ages, so it isn't just about selfies, smartphones, social media, etc.
I don’t see what wanting to be able to buy a house and have a decent life has to do with being self obsessed.
Do you think you ought to be able to buy a house in London?
I think that if nearly everyone couldn't afford the house they live in, unless they bought years ago, then house prices are too high and will have a correction.
That's more likely to happen where house prices are dependent on local and national factors.
But with a 'world city' such as London that might not apply.
Just so everyone knows, the Brexit march is the lead story on CNN in the US.
Only kidding, it doesn't even get a mention.
More seriously, the Brexit march demonstrates that the wounds from Brexit will not heal easily.
The arguments we're having with Brussels are not the problem. In time, the UK and the EU will realise that they need to have a productive relationship, because it is both their best interests.
The problems we're having are internal. And part of the problem is that the political class is obsessed with the negotiations. We've perhaps never had a government so lacking in dialog with their own population.
I don't know what the solution is, because there Theresa May is emotionally unable to connect with people, and the negotiations are entering their final leg.
We've become a 'take it from them and give it to me' society.
The failure of the economy to 'life all boats' meant that for some to get richer wealth had to be transferred from others.
To justify this wealth transfer it was easier to demonise those from whom it was being taken.
Its a process which began about 15 years ago - when levels of home ownership started falling being a good indicator of a changing society.
It is an entitlement society where many younger people feel entitled to everything without having to strive or work for it.
My children in their forties do not feel like that so I guess it is those in their thirties and younger.
Perhaps brought about by a culture instilled by teachers and easy exams where no one fails - not sure.
I don’t see what wanting to be able to buy a house and have a decent life has to do with being self obsessed.
Do you think you ought to be able to buy a house in London?
I think that if nearly everyone couldn't afford the house they live in, unless they bought years ago, then house prices are too high and will have a correction.
Interest rates were much higher in 92 when I bought my first house at 3 times salary, and mortgage was 40% of my income.
I agree with that. But I think it needs the young to start voting with their feet to help bring the change. As long as they continue to pay the silly rents, nothing will change.
We just need a return to the days of very high inflation, the debtor's friend. Enter Comrade Corbyn!
We forget how powerful inflation was in the late 70s and early 80s. Of course, that was also due to wage rises more than keeping pace with said inflation. I roughly dectupled my salary between '81 and '90. I wasn't alone.
My grandparents bought a house in Morden, south London in 1960 for £5000, it's now worth over half a million, my Grandfather was a milkman and my Grandmother a part time school dinner lady.
Are people with those sort of jobs ever going to be able to buy a family home again?
Interesting numbers.
£500k in Morden is a normal 3 bed semi give or take.
In 1990 that would have been about 70-80k. (Family member who bought similar in 1991).
So in the 30 years between 1960 and 1990 it increased around 15 times. In the 28 years between 1990 and 2018 it increased around 6-7 times.
Hmmm.
The average wage in the UK (don't have the figures for London but it would have been higher there) was £700 in 1960, £13,750 in 1990 and £27.750 in 2017.
So you could buy that house for 7 times a single persons average salary in 1960 around 5.5 times their salary in 1990, not a lot of difference there, but last year it would be costing around 16 times their salary.
The average age of a first time buyer in the UK in 2017 is 25-35, and the average first time buyers’ salary is £35,000.
In Blaenau Gwent House prices are 3.3 times salary, in Copeland 2.9 times salary.
In London though house prices are 10 times average salary so it is also a problem most acute in London, in the North and Wales house price affordability is much less of an issue than in London and the Home Counties.
£500k in Morden is a normal 3 bed semi give or take.
In 1990 that would have been about 70-80k. (Family member who bought similar in 1991).
So in the 30 years between 1960 and 1990 it increased around 15 times. In the 28 years between 1990 and 2018 it increased around 6-7 times.
Hmmm.
Plausible, sadly. The 70's were a time of high inflation (>10%) and houses kept up. Then there was the Lawson boom (88-90?), then things stabilized, then ERM dropout dropped a bit, then, boom 97-04, then we should have had a dip but Brown interferered, so boom again 04-07, then 20% fall in 2008, then back up by 10% in 2009 (Brown again), then house prices were flat 2010-2012? until Osborne brought in right-to-buy, then small boom again. I haven't kept up for about two years so I can't really tell you 2017-date.
My grandparents bought a house in Morden, south London in 1960 for £5000, it's now worth over half a million, my Grandfather was a milkman and my Grandmother a part time school dinner lady.
Are people with those sort of jobs ever going to be able to buy a family home again?
Interesting numbers.
£500k in Morden is a normal 3 bed semi give or take.
In 1990 that would have been about 70-80k. (Family member who bought similar in 1991).
So in the 30 years between 1960 and 1990 it increased around 15 times. In the 28 years between 1990 and 2018 it increased around 6-7 times.
" And the idea that it was something to do with class war is just silly - the same Bill took out (rather more effectively) the largely working-class sport of hare coursing."
With the banning of legal Hare coursing there has been a large rise in Illegal hare coursing. These illegal poachers intimidate landowners, damage property and hurt people. To claim that hare coursing has been "took out" is simply disingenuous. The situation has been made worse.
After the Iraq War march Blair saw the Labour majority slashed from 160 to 66 at the 2005 general election.
A similar swing away from the Tories at the next general election would easily see Corbyn become PM
The swing away from Labour between 2001 and 2005 was 2.5% but only 1% went to the Tories who were not really against the Iraq war.
In the same way, Corbyn is not really against Brexit, so if the same percentage of votes changed hands over this protest march it would only make Labour the largest party.
However the Tories ran a terrible campaign in 2017 which they probably won't repeat, Brexit is not guaranteed to be a disaster despite the prophesies of so many mainly self appointed 'experts' and the Tories could change leader before 2022.
Corbyn can't win over the middle ground like Blair did and a better leader than Michael Howard could see the Tories win again, even if the boundary changes don't happen.
Just so everyone knows, the Brexit march is the lead story on CNN in the US.
Only kidding, it doesn't even get a mention.
More seriously, the Brexit march demonstrates that the wounds from Brexit will not heal easily.
The arguments we're having with Brussels are not the problem. In time, the UK and the EU will realise that they need to have a productive relationship, because it is both their best interests.
The problems we're having are internal. And part of the problem is that the political class is obsessed with the negotiations. We've perhaps never had a government so lacking in dialog with their own population.
I don't know what the solution is, because there Theresa May is emotionally unable to connect with people, and the negotiations are entering their final leg.
We've become a 'take it from them and give it to me' society.
The failure of the economy to 'life all boats' meant that for some to get richer wealth had to be transferred from others.
To justify this wealth transfer it was easier to demonise those from whom it was being taken.
Its a process which began about 15 years ago - when levels of home ownership started falling being a good indicator of a changing society.
It is an entitlement society where many younger people feel entitled to everything without having to strive or work for it.
My children in their forties do not feel like that so I guess it is those in their thirties and younger.
Perhaps brought about by a culture instilled by teachers and easy exams where no one fails - not sure.
I've just read a superb book by Will Storr called Selfie which discusses those types of things. One of the best I've read in the last five years. The first 50 pages are about ancient Greece and the next 50 about Christianity in the middle ages, so it isn't just about selfies, smartphones, social media, etc.
I don’t see what wanting to be able to buy a house and have a decent life has to do with being self obsessed.
The reason it was easy to buy a house 30 or 40 years ago was because a huge percentage of the population lived in council houses and weren't even trying to buy a house, which left the field clear for those who were trying to buy one. But when the majority of people are trying to buy a house it's going to be a lot harder. (I've got a feeling this comment is going to annoy you as much as my last one did).
After the Iraq War march Blair saw the Labour majority slashed from 160 to 66 at the 2005 general election.
A similar swing away from the Tories at the next general election would easily see Corbyn become PM
The swing away from Labour between 2001 and 2005 was 2.5% but only 1% went to the Tories who were not really against the Iraq war.
In the same way, Corbyn is not really against Brexit, so if the same percentage of votes changed hands over this protest march it would only make Labour the largest party.
However the Tories ran a terrible campaign in 2017 which they probably won't repeat, Brexit is not guaranteed to be a disaster despite the prophesies of so many mainly self appointed 'experts' and the Tories could change leader before 2022.
Corbyn can't win over the middle ground like Blair did and a better leader than Michael Howard could see the Tories win again, even if the boundary changes don't happen.
If Labour were the largest party Corbyn would still be PM even if most of the movement was Tory Remainers to LD rather than Tory to Corbyn Labour in a mirror image of 2005 when most of the movement was Labour anti Iraq War voters to the LDs rather than Howard's Tories as the SNP would prop up Corbyn as would the LDs if the Tories have not agreed an acceptable deal with the EU.
Cruz now an average of 7% clear according to RCP. Not looking too close at the moment, sadly.
Midterm turn out is looking like it is going to be close to 2016 levels rather than 2014 levels according to the early voting data. There is no way the AMerican pollsters have the right turnout filter so if the polls are right it is by chance rather than science at the moment.
What way they swing wrong is a complete unknown for which I have no intuition.
I doubt it, no midterm election since WW2 has ever got over 50% turnout. 36% turned out in the 2014 midterms, 56% in the 2016 presidential and congressional election, 41% in the 2010 midterms, 55% in the 2012 presidential and congressional election.
North Carloina is currently on trend with Presidential voting levels.
My grandparents bought a house in Morden, south London in 1960 for £5000, it's now worth over half a million, my Grandfather was a milkman and my Grandmother a part time school dinner lady.
Are people with those sort of jobs ever going to be able to buy a family home again?
Interesting numbers.
£500k in Morden is a normal 3 bed semi give or take.
In 1990 that would have been about 70-80k. (Family member who bought similar in 1991).
So in the 30 years between 1960 and 1990 it increased around 15 times. In the 28 years between 1990 and 2018 it increased around 6-7 times.
Hmmm.
It’s salary multiples that matter not absolute prices
They did bump up in the 80s following loosening of lending regulations and again through the 90s/00s as interest rates became lower
They have skyrocketed in the last 10 years as asset prices have inflated and salaries stagnated
£500k in Morden is a normal 3 bed semi give or take.
In 1990 that would have been about 70-80k. (Family member who bought similar in 1991).
So in the 30 years between 1960 and 1990 it increased around 15 times. In the 28 years between 1990 and 2018 it increased around 6-7 times.
Hmmm.
Plausible, sadly. The 70's were a time of high inflation (>10%) and houses kept up. Then there was the Lawson boom (88-90?), then things stabilized, then ERM dropout dropped a bit, then, boom 97-04, then we should have had a dip but Brown interferered, so boom again 04-07, then 20% fall in 2008, then back up by 10% in 2009 (Brown again), then house prices were flat 2010-2012? until Osborne brought in right-to-buy, then small boom again. I haven't kept up for about two years so I can't really tell you 2017-date.
I just love how butthurt right wingers get at mass protests. Stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity.
As opposed to the two plus years of stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity-fest of Remainderdom?
See, look! You're doing it right now!
The lack of self-awareness of petulant Brexiteers when they're at their most objectionably self-pitying is kinda adorable.
I have to admit, though. I do *understand* why you're so angry. The remainers have been trying to tell you for years what was going to happen, and you ignored them.
And then the remainers were proved absolutely correct and the chaos unfolded exactly as everyone told you they would. Nobody likes being proved so hilariously, catastrophically, consistently and publicly wrong.
I feel your pain.
Angry? Nope.
You'll know when we're angry. We'll quietly, with little fuss, go and eject from power all the arseholes who haven't learnt to do as they were told....
So the opposite of the "all bark no bite" strategy Brexiteers are going for now?
Cruz now an average of 7% clear according to RCP. Not looking too close at the moment, sadly.
Midterm turn out is looking like it is going to be close to 2016 levels rather than 2014 levels according to the early voting data. There is no way the AMerican pollsters have the right turnout filter so if the polls are right it is by chance rather than science at the moment.
What way they swing wrong is a complete unknown for which I have no intuition.
I doubt it, no midterm election since WW2 has ever got over 50% turnout. 36% turned out in the 2014 midterms, 56% in the 2016 presidential and congressional election, 41% in the 2010 midterms, 55% in the 2012 presidential and congressional election.
North Carloina is currently on trend with Presidential voting levels.
Though that is early voting, I still doubt very much the midterm turnout will get over 50% nationwide, turnout wise the US midterms normally get about the same turnout as UK local elections
"My father was a diplomat. He earned a modest Civil Service salary. But my mother had inherited a few thousand pounds from her late father. So in 1964 they used that money to buy a five-bedroom detached house opposite Kew Gardens in south-west London. It cost £8,000."
The problem with referendums is that it's difficult to get people to vote on the question on the ballot paper. The first EU referendum was probably more about people's discontent with "elites" in general, and if we have another one it'll probably be a vote on whether having a second referendum is a good idea in itself rather than whether or not we should stay in the EU. Neither referendum would actually be about the question posed. But there isn't much you can do about that problem.
"My father was a diplomat. He earned a modest Civil Service salary. But my mother had inherited a few thousand pounds from her late father. So in 1964 they used that money to buy a five-bedroom detached house opposite Kew Gardens in south-west London. It cost £8,000."
That's a good point. Another of the advantages the boomers (mostly the early tranche) had was that their parents were more likely to pop their clogs while they were in their twenties and thirties. Actuarially, my 25 year old daughter is going to receive her inheritance when she's in her early fifties, which is possibly a bit late to be useful!
"My father was a diplomat. He earned a modest Civil Service salary. But my mother had inherited a few thousand pounds from her late father. So in 1964 they used that money to buy a five-bedroom detached house opposite Kew Gardens in south-west London. It cost £8,000."
That's a good point. Another of the advantages the boomers (mostly the early tranche) had was that their parents were more likely to pop their clogs while they were in their twenties and thirties. Actuarially, my 25 year old daughter is going to receive her inheritance when she's in her early fifties, which is possibly a bit late to be useful!
Plenty of parents gift their children funds for a deposit while they are still alive, certainly the upper middle classes in London and the Home Counties
Do not underestimate this march, my right-wing friend!
Learn the lessons from Tony Blair and Iraq.
No it's a different mix of people.
The far left and a lot of the far right were against the war as were the Liberals and Greens. In favour were the right wing of the Labour party and most Tories.
Against Brexit you've got the Liberals and Greens again, the right wing of the Labour party and some Tories, you don't have the far left who like the far right, UKIP and most Tories are in favour of or at least will accept Brexit.
"My father was a diplomat. He earned a modest Civil Service salary. But my mother had inherited a few thousand pounds from her late father. So in 1964 they used that money to buy a five-bedroom detached house opposite Kew Gardens in south-west London. It cost £8,000."
' It has been at least 20 years since I realised that, even though I was earning more than my father had ever made in his life, I could never hope to afford to live in a house like the one I grew up in, nor give my children the kind of education he provided for me and my sisters. '
What we've been seeing at various speeds and to varying extents around the country is middle class regression.
Just so everyone knows, the Brexit march is the lead story on CNN in the US.
Only kidding, it doesn't even get a mention.
More seriously, the Brexit march demonstrates that the wounds from Brexit will not heal easily.
The arguments we're having with Brussels are not the problem. In time, the UK and the EU will realise that they need to have a productive relationship, because it is both their best interests.
The problems we're having are internal. And part of the problem is that the political class is obsessed with the negotiations. We've perhaps never had a government so lacking in dialog with their own population.
I don't know what the solution is, because there Theresa May is emotionally unable to connect with people, and the negotiations are entering their final leg.
We've become a 'take it from them and give it to me' society.
The failure of the economy to 'life all boats' meant that for some to get richer wealth had to be transferred from others.
To justify this wealth transfer it was easier to demonise those from whom it was being taken.
Its a process which began about 15 years ago - when levels of home ownership started falling being a good indicator of a changing society.
It is an entitlement society where many younger people feel entitled to everything without having to strive or work for it.
My children in their forties do not feel like that so I guess it is those in their thirties and younger.
Perhaps brought about by a culture instilled by teachers and easy exams where no one fails - not sure.
I've just read a superb book by Will Storr called Selfie which discusses those types of things. One of the best I've read in the last five years. The first 50 pages are about ancient Greece and the next 50 about Christianity in the middle ages, so it isn't just about selfies, smartphones, social media, etc.
I don’t see what wanting to be able to buy a house and have a decent life has to do with being self obsessed.
Funnily enough I agree with you.
I don't detect that laziness is the problem with young people. It is possible that social media and the rise of smart technology has made people more narcissistic but that's not quite the same thing.
"My father was a diplomat. He earned a modest Civil Service salary. But my mother had inherited a few thousand pounds from her late father. So in 1964 they used that money to buy a five-bedroom detached house opposite Kew Gardens in south-west London. It cost £8,000."
That's a good point. Another of the advantages the boomers (mostly the early tranche) had was that their parents were more likely to pop their clogs while they were in their twenties and thirties. Actuarially, my 25 year old daughter is going to receive her inheritance when she's in her early fifties, which is possibly a bit late to be useful!
What you should introduce is the Irish Rolling Settlement: you create a trust for the benefit of her children; she makes a contribution for her grandchildren and so on.
Incidentally, I think I'm one of the few who want a referendum on the Deal who believes it'll end with the Deal getting support and Remain losing again.
My reasoning is that if people get the chance to go yay or nay on the Deal, there may be less unrest and discontent afterwards of the "we never voted for this!" variety. The "get the voters to dip their hands in the blood" philosophy.
Then again, though, given that otherwise the Tories will just carry the can for imposing a specific Brexit on the population, of which any negatives (and let's face it, even the most ardent Brexiteer sees that there'll be some negatives of some degree) will get blamed on them - why should I, or any non-Tory, worry for them?
From a strictly partisan point of view, the Tories should most want a Deal Referendum (I'm searching for a name there that isn't "Peoples Vote" as the last one was also a Peoples Vote, or Second Referendum, because that implies it's a plain rerun of the exact same question) and non-Tories should most not want a Deal Referendum.
If Brexit screws things up in any significant way, it'll be as much of a drag on the Party that took it through (and resisted any attempts for a say on how it was done) as the Winter of Discontent, or Black Wednesday. If not more so.
Was it not the Governor of the Boe who said that whoever won the 2010 election would bear all the consequences of the task that needed doing?
Indeed. Unless whoever got more votes had someone else to focus scapegoat attention on, but what were the chances of that...
I can't say I blame Nick Clegg for taking that job, and nor do I resent him for it.
He's done far more real thinking on Brexit than any of his compatriots have.
"My father was a diplomat. He earned a modest Civil Service salary. But my mother had inherited a few thousand pounds from her late father. So in 1964 they used that money to buy a five-bedroom detached house opposite Kew Gardens in south-west London. It cost £8,000."
' It has been at least 20 years since I realised that, even though I was earning more than my father had ever made in his life, I could never hope to afford to live in a house like the one I grew up in, nor give my children the kind of education he provided for me and my sisters. '
What we've been seeing at various speeds and to varying extents around the country is middle class regression.
The author is a writer who was educated at Eton and grew up in a detached house in Richmond Park.
He lives in what he describes as a 'rambling old cottage with a lovely garden' near Chichester and his children went to a local primary and a West Sussex comprehensive, Bishop Luffa, rated Outstanding. Please forgive me if I do not shed too many tears over this tale of woe and downward mobility, it is hardly Dickensian!
I just love how butthurt right wingers get at mass protests. Stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity.
As opposed to the two plus years of stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity-fest of Remainderdom?
See, look! You're doing it right now!
The lack of self-awareness of petulant Brexiteers when they're at their most objectionably self-pitying is kinda adorable.
I have to admit, though. I do *understand* why you're so angry. The remainers have been trying to tell you for years what was going to happen, and you ignored them.
And then the remainers were proved absolutely correct and the chaos unfolded exactly as everyone told you they would. Nobody likes being proved so hilariously, catastrophically, consistently and publicly wrong.
I feel your pain.
You've proven nothing. It's only your supreme arrogance that leads you to conclude that.
The EU and the ultra-Remainers have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing. So there will be no progress and no peace.
Just so everyone knows, the Brexit march is the lead story on CNN in the US.
Only kidding, it doesn't even get a mention.
We've become a 'take it from them and give it to me' society.
The failure of the economy to 'life all boats' meant that for some to get richer wealth had to be transferred from others.
To justify this wealth transfer it was easier to demonise those from whom it was being taken.
Its a process which began about 15 years ago - when levels of home ownership started falling being a good indicator of a changing society.
It is an entitlement society where many younger people feel entitled to everything without having to strive or work for it.
My children in their forties do not feel like that so I guess it is those in their thirties and younger.
Perhaps brought about by a culture instilled by teachers and easy exams where no one fails - not sure.
Of course some people in every generation are entitled - but I think it's disingenuous to say that the problems that young people face nowadays are due to some kind of moral failing.
When he was 22, my grandfather was able to get a job in an aircraft factory immediately after leaving university (which was free) paying the inflation adjusted equivalent of about £35,000. He was then able to rent a house in a nice part of the country for about 1/6th of his monthly wage. He was able to save up enough for a mortgage on a semi-detached house at about 3x annual wage.
I'm 22 now and I've just got a job in London after putting in three years of unpaid voluntary work to build the experience I needed to qualify. I'm earning £22,500, but I'm paying almost 1/2 of that after taxes on rent, and even if I were to get a significant pay increase, I'd need to start covering my tuition fees (I'm one of the lucky ones who don't have to start repaying at 21k). Even if I were able to put aside money for a mortgage, I'd be looking at at something around 10x my annual wage.
There are obviously severe structural problems in our economy. No matter how unentitled I am, I'm not going to be able to afford a semi detached house anytime soon. I want to settle down and get on with life - but right now I don't see how I can.
Let me get this straight. You have voluntarily opted to work in a field which requires 3 years of unpaid voluntary work, after 3 years at university, leading to a salary that, although not very low by National standards, does not permit a very good standard of living in London. You have freely chosen to do this, but complain about the consequences of your choices.
"My father was a diplomat. He earned a modest Civil Service salary. But my mother had inherited a few thousand pounds from her late father. So in 1964 they used that money to buy a five-bedroom detached house opposite Kew Gardens in south-west London. It cost £8,000."
' It has been at least 20 years since I realised that, even though I was earning more than my father had ever made in his life, I could never hope to afford to live in a house like the one I grew up in, nor give my children the kind of education he provided for me and my sisters. '
What we've been seeing at various speeds and to varying extents around the country is middle class regression.
The author is a writer who was educated at Eton and had a detached house in Richmond Park.
He lives in what he describes as a 'rambling old cottage with a lovely garden' near Chichester and his children went to a local primary and a West Sussex comprehensive, Bishop Luffa, rated Outstanding. Please forgive me if I do not shed too many tears over this tale of woe and downward mobility, it is hardly Dickensian!
But it is a fact that home ownership levels have fallen significantly among the young during the last two decades.
Though not as quickly as student debts have risen.
Unlikely I'll tip anything but if the odds are wonky on Bottas/Raikkonen, we'll see. Bottas was 7 (down from 8.5) for top qualifying time before third practice. Vettel had gone from around 4.5 to 7 (slightly odd, as he'll still be trying to qualify as best he can). Expect the latter to shorten again but Bottas' odds may lengthen.
Unlikely I'll tip anything but if the odds are wonky on Bottas/Raikkonen, we'll see. Bottas was 7 (down from 8.5) for top qualifying time before third practice. Vettel had gone from around 4.5 to 7 (slightly odd, as he'll still be trying to qualify as best he can). Expect the latter to shorten again but Bottas' odds may lengthen.
It is an entitlement society where many younger people feel entitled to everything without having to strive or work for it.
My children in their forties do not feel like that so I guess it is those in their thirties and younger.
Perhaps brought about by a culture instilled by teachers and easy exams where no one fails - not sure.
Of course some people in every generation are entitled - but I think it's disingenuous to say that the problems that young people face nowadays are due to some kind of moral failing.
When he was 22, my grandfather was able to get a job in an aircraft factory immediately after leaving university (which was free) paying the inflation adjusted equivalent of about £35,000. He was then able to rent a house in a nice part of the country for about 1/6th of his monthly wage. He was able to save up enough for a mortgage on a semi-detached house at about 3x annual wage.
I'm 22 now and I've just got a job in London after putting in three years of unpaid voluntary work to build the experience I needed to qualify. I'm earning £22,500, but I'm paying almost 1/2 of that after taxes on rent, and even if I were to get a significant pay increase, I'd need to start covering my tuition fees (I'm one of the lucky ones who don't have to start repaying at 21k). Even if I were able to put aside money for a mortgage, I'd be looking at at something around 10x my annual wage.
There are obviously severe structural problems in our economy. No matter how unentitled I am, I'm not going to be able to afford a semi detached house anytime soon. I want to settle down and get on with life - but right now I don't see how I can.
Let me get this straight. You have voluntarily opted to work in a field which requires 3 years of unpaid voluntary work, after 3 years at university, leading to a salary that, although not very low by National standards, does not permit a very good standard of living in London. You have freely chosen to do this, but complain about the consequences of your choices.
This is what irritates people about millennials.
I have a lot of sympathy with him actually.
Anyone with a London specific job which doesn't pay very well is going to struggle financially.
Incidentally, I think I'm one of the few who want a referendum on the Deal who believes it'll end with the Deal getting support and Remain losing again.
My reasoning is that if people get the chance to go yay or nay on the Deal, there may be less unrest and discontent afterwards of the "we never voted for this!" variety. The "get the voters to dip their hands in the blood" philosophy.
Then again, though, given that otherwise the Tories will just carry the can for imposing a specific Brexit on the population, of which any negatives (and let's face it, even the most ardent Brexiteer sees that there'll be some negatives of some degree) will get blamed on them - why should I, or any non-Tory, worry for them?
From a strictly partisan point of view, the Tories should most want a Deal Referendum (I'm searching for a name there that isn't "Peoples Vote" as the last one was also a Peoples Vote, or Second Referendum, because that implies it's a plain rerun of the exact same question) and non-Tories should most not want a Deal Referendum.
If Brexit screws things up in any significant way, it'll be as much of a drag on the Party that took it through (and resisted any attempts for a say on how it was done) as the Winter of Discontent, or Black Wednesday. If not more so.
Was it not the Governor of the Boe who said that whoever won the 2010 election would bear all the consequences of the task that needed doing?
Indeed. Unless whoever got more votes had someone else to focus scapegoat attention on, but what were the chances of that...
I can't say I blame Nick Clegg for taking that job, and nor do I resent him for it.
He's done far more real thinking on Brexit than any of his compatriots have.
Clegg is interesting. Anyone who goes from the adulation of the Cleggasm to the lows of the death of the Lib Dem’s has to be interesting.
I don’t find him a deep thinker, but I highly recommend his Anger Management podcast. The interview with Joe Biden is great, especially if you are on the left.
I just love how butthurt right wingers get at mass protests. Stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity.
As opposed to the two plus years of stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity-fest of Remainderdom?
See, look! You're doing it right now!
The lack of self-awareness of petulant Brexiteers when they're at their most objectionably self-pitying is kinda adorable.
I have to admit, though. I do *understand* why you're so angry. The remainers have been trying to tell you for years what was going to happen, and you ignored them.
And then the remainers were proved absolutely correct and the chaos unfolded exactly as everyone told you they would. Nobody likes being proved so hilariously, catastrophically, consistently and publicly wrong.
I feel your pain.
Angry? Nope.
You'll know when we're angry. We'll quietly, with little fuss, go and eject from power all the arseholes who haven't learnt to do as they were told....
You're pi**ed off because you know full well that the size of that demo will encourage the EU 27 to dig their heals in further and the further we move towards No Deal the more likely it is that the whole project will fail.
"My father was a diplomat. He earned a modest Civil Service salary. But my mother had inherited a few thousand pounds from her late father. So in 1964 they used that money to buy a five-bedroom detached house opposite Kew Gardens in south-west London. It cost £8,000."
' It has been at least 20 years since I realised that, even though I was earning more than my father had ever made in his life, I could never hope to afford to live in a house like the one I grew up in, nor give my children the kind of education he provided for me and my sisters. '
What we've been seeing at various speeds and to varying extents around the country is middle class regression.
The author is a writer who was educated at Eton and had a detached house in Richmond Park.
He lives in what he describes as a 'rambling old cottage with a lovely garden' near Chichester and his children went to a local primary and a West Sussex comprehensive, Bishop Luffa, rated Outstanding. Please forgive me if I do not shed too many tears over this tale of woe and downward mobility, it is hardly Dickensian!
But it is a fact that home ownership levels have fallen significantly among the young during the last two decades.
Though not as quickly as student debts have risen.
That is true but even so by 35-44 over 60% in that age bracket were home owners in England in 2011-12, even if only 40% of those aged 25 -34 were
Cruz now an average of 7% clear according to RCP. Not looking too close at the moment, sadly.
Midterm turn out is looking like it is going to be close to 2016 levels rather than 2014 levels according to the early voting data. There is no way the AMerican pollsters have the right turnout filter so if the polls are right it is by chance rather than science at the moment.
What way they swing wrong is a complete unknown for which I have no intuition.
I doubt it, no midterm election since WW2 has ever got over 50% turnout. 36% turned out in the 2014 midterms, 56% in the 2016 presidential and congressional election, 41% in the 2010 midterms, 55% in the 2012 presidential and congressional election.
North Carloina is currently on trend with Presidential voting levels.
Though that is early voting, I still doubt very much the midterm turnout will get over 50% nationwide, turnout wise the US midterms normally get about the same turnout as UK local elections
Sure, but mid term early voting is normally way down on Presidential early voting. This time it is level pegging it.
It doesn't seem like it is a universal rise but there are going to be some stonking turnouts across the USA which will fuck the polling.
Bollocks. Not a simple single marcher is in love with the soulless 27 headed monster. They are just people who have been supping on media lies that has got them het up. If you spoke to any of the 116k adults and their children who marched today they will tell you what Brexit means and what will happen. Truth is, they havnt a clue what Brexit means, no one does. We do know that Canadian, Turks, Norwegians, Moroccans ain’t marching to be in it. Of all the countries in the world not in EU, of all the people not in it, do they seem bothered? Does it look like curtains, like the end of the world for them?
Every marcher today just needs to grow up. Stop acting like the skies falling in.
Cruz now an average of 7% clear according to RCP. Not looking too close at the moment, sadly.
Midterm turn out is looking like it is going to be close to 2016 levels rather than 2014 levels according to the early voting data. There is no way the AMerican pollsters have the right turnout filter so if the polls are right it is by chance rather than science at the moment.
What way they swing wrong is a complete unknown for which I have no intuition.
I doubt it, no midterm election since WW2 has ever got over 50% turnout. 36% turned out in the 2014 midterms, 56% in the 2016 presidential and congressional election, 41% in the 2010 midterms, 55% in the 2012 presidential and congressional election.
North Carloina is currently on trend with Presidential voting levels.
Though that is early voting, I still doubt very much the midterm turnout will get over 50% nationwide, turnout wise the US midterms normally get about the same turnout as UK local elections
Sure, but mid term early voting is normally way down on Presidential early voting. This time it is level pegging it.
It doesn't seem like it is a universal rise but there are going to be some stonking turnouts across the USA which will fuck the polling.
Cruz now an average of 7% clear according to RCP. Not looking too close at the moment, sadly.
Midterm turn out is looking like it is going to be close to 2016 levels rather than 2014 levels according to the early voting data. There is no way the AMerican pollsters have the right turnout filter so if the polls are right it is by chance rather than science at the moment.
What way they swing wrong is a complete unknown for which I have no intuition.
I doubt it, no midterm election since WW2 has ever got over 50% turnout. 36% turned out in the 2014 midterms, 56% in the 2016 presidential and congressional election, 41% in the 2010 midterms, 55% in the 2012 presidential and congressional election.
North Carloina is currently on trend with Presidential voting levels.
Though that is early voting, I still doubt very much the midterm turnout will get over 50% nationwide, turnout wise the US midterms normally get about the same turnout as UK local elections
Sure, but mid term early voting is normally way down on Presidential early voting. This time it is level pegging it.
It doesn't seem like it is a universal rise but there are going to be some stonking turnouts across the USA which will fuck the polling.
Weren't early voting numbers hyped up before the 2016 election?
Cruz now an average of 7% clear according to RCP. Not looking too close at the moment, sadly.
Midterm turn out is looking like it is going to be close to 2016 levels rather than 2014 levels according to the early voting data. There is no way the AMerican pollsters have the right turnout filter so if the polls are right it is by chance rather than science at the moment.
What way they swing wrong is a complete unknown for which I have no intuition.
I doubt it, no midterm election since WW2 has ever got over 50% turnout. 36% turned out in the 2014 midterms, 56% in the 2016 presidential and congressional election, 41% in the 2010 midterms, 55% in the 2012 presidential and congressional election.
North Carloina is currently on trend with Presidential voting levels.
Though that is early voting, I still doubt very much the midterm turnout will get over 50% nationwide, turnout wise the US midterms normally get about the same turnout as UK local elections
Sure, but mid term early voting is normally way down on Presidential early voting. This time it is level pegging it.
It doesn't seem like it is a universal rise but there are going to be some stonking turnouts across the USA which will fuck the polling.
Weren't early voting numbers hyped up before the 2016 election?
Bollocks. Not a simple single marcher is in love with the soulless 27 headed monster. They are just people who have been supping on media lies that has got them het up. If you spoke to any of the 116k adults and their children who marched today they will tell you what Brexit means and what will happen. Truth is, they havnt a clue what Brexit means, no one does. We do know that Canadian, Turks, Norwegians, Moroccans ain’t marching to be in it. Of all the countries in the world not in EU, of all the people not in it, do they seem bothered? Does it look like curtains, like the end of the world for them?
Every marcher today just needs to grow up. Stop acting like the skies falling in.
"My father was a diplomat. He earned a modest Civil Service salary. But my mother had inherited a few thousand pounds from her late father. So in 1964 they used that money to buy a five-bedroom detached house opposite Kew Gardens in south-west London. It cost £8,000."
' It has been at least 20 years since I realised that, even though I was earning more than my father had ever made in his life, I could never hope to afford to live in a house like the one I grew up in, nor give my children the kind of education he provided for me and my sisters. '
What we've been seeing at various speeds and to varying extents around the country is middle class regression.
The author is a writer who was educated at Eton and had a detached house in Richmond Park.
He lives in what he describes as a 'rambling old cottage with a lovely garden' near Chichester and his children went to a local primary and a West Sussex comprehensive, Bishop Luffa, rated Outstanding. Please forgive me if I do not shed too many tears over this tale of woe and downward mobility, it is hardly Dickensian!
But it is a fact that home ownership levels have fallen significantly among the young during the last two decades.
Though not as quickly as student debts have risen.
We London middle classes aged 45 and under have just had to reduce our expectations.
My mate, a QC, lives in a slightly cramped house in Hackney. It’s considered fancy by local standards but nevertheless, it’s Hackney. I live down the road. We hang in a group of corporate lawyers who have all had to make do somehow.
A generation ago, we’d all be in 5-beds in Hampstead.
Bollocks. Not a simple single marcher is in love with the soulless 27 headed monster. They are just people who have been supping on media lies that has got them het up. If you spoke to any of the 116k adults and their children who marched today they will tell you what Brexit means and what will happen. Truth is, they havnt a clue what Brexit means, no one does. We do know that Canadian, Turks, Norwegians, Moroccans ain’t marching to be in it. Of all the countries in the world not in EU, of all the people not in it, do they seem bothered? Does it look like curtains, like the end of the world for them?
Every marcher today just needs to grow up. Stop acting like the skies falling in.
They only listen to people who tell them what they want to hear.
It's probably the biggest single reason behind my decision to vote Leave.
Cruz now an average of 7% clear according to RCP. Not looking too close at the moment, sadly.
Midterm turn out is looking like it is going to be close to 2016 levels rather than 2014 levels according to the early voting data. There is no way the AMerican pollsters have the right turnout filter so if the polls are right it is by chance rather than science at the moment.
What way they swing wrong is a complete unknown for which I have no intuition.
I doubt it, no midterm election since WW2 has ever got over 50% turnout. 36% turned out in the 2014 midterms, 56% in the 2016 presidential and congressional election, 41% in the 2010 midterms, 55% in the 2012 presidential and congressional election.
North Carloina is currently on trend with Presidential voting levels.
Though that is early voting, I still doubt very much the midterm turnout will get over 50% nationwide, turnout wise the US midterms normally get about the same turnout as UK local elections
Sure, but mid term early voting is normally way down on Presidential early voting. This time it is level pegging it.
It doesn't seem like it is a universal rise but there are going to be some stonking turnouts across the USA which will fuck the polling.
Weren't early voting numbers hyped up before the 2016 election?
' Some statistical indicators are more useful than others. Data on early voting, for instance, usually doesn’t provide much predictive insight. Historically, the relationship between early voting in a state and the final voting totals there has been weak, and attempts to make inferences from early voting data have made fools of otherwise smart people. In the 2014 midterms, Democrats used early-vote numbers to claim that the polls were underrating their chances. Instead, it was Republicans who substantially beat the polls.
None of this deterred reporters and analysts from frequently citing early vote data in the closing weeks of last year’s presidential campaign, very often taking it to be a favorable indicator for Hillary Clinton. On Oct. 23, for instance, The New York Times argued that because Clinton had banked votes in North Carolina and Florida, it might already be too late for Donald Trump to come back in those states '
I just love how butthurt right wingers get at mass protests. Stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity.
As opposed to the two plus years of stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity-fest of Remainderdom?
See, look! You're doing it right now!
The lack of self-awareness of petulant Brexiteers when they're at their most objectionably self-pitying is kinda adorable.
I have to admit, though. I do *understand* why you're so angry. The remainers have been trying to tell you for years what was going to happen, and you ignored them.
And then the remainers were proved absolutely correct and the chaos unfolded exactly as everyone told you they would. Nobody likes being proved so hilariously, catastrophically, consistently and publicly wrong.
I feel your pain.
Angry? Nope.
You'll know when we're angry. We'll quietly, with little fuss, go and eject from power all the arseholes who haven't learnt to do as they were told....
You're pi**ed off because you know full well that the size of that demo will encourage the EU 27 to dig their heals in further and the further we move towards No Deal the more likely it is that the whole project will fail.
You are pleased that the EU might seek to actually act punitively against your fellow countrymen?
Cruz now an average of 7% clear according to RCP. Not looking too close at the moment, sadly.
Midterm turn out is looking like it is going to be close to 2016 levels rather than 2014 levels according to the early voting data. There is no way the AMerican pollsters have the right turnout filter so if the polls are right it is by chance rather than science at the moment.
What way they swing wrong is a complete unknown for which I have no intuition.
I doubt it, no midterm election since WW2 has ever got over 50% turnout. 36% turned out in the 2014 midterms, 56% in the 2016 presidential and congressional election, 41% in the 2010 midterms, 55% in the 2012 presidential and congressional election.
North Carloina is currently on trend with Presidential voting levels.
Though that is early voting, I still doubt very much the midterm turnout will get over 50% nationwide, turnout wise the US midterms normally get about the same turnout as UK local elections
Sure, but mid term early voting is normally way down on Presidential early voting. This time it is level pegging it.
It doesn't seem like it is a universal rise but there are going to be some stonking turnouts across the USA which will fuck the polling.
Maybe, maybe not though if it does rise heavily that likely helps the Democrats as midterms are generally a protest vote against the party in the White House
I just love how butthurt right wingers get at mass protests. Stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity.
As opposed to the two plus years of stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity-fest of Remainderdom?
See, look! You're doing it right now!
The lack of self-awareness of petulant Brexiteers when they're at their most objectionably self-pitying is kinda adorable.
I have to admit, though. I do *understand* why you're so angry. The remainers have been trying to tell you for years what was going to happen, and you ignored them.
And then the remainers were proved absolutely correct and the chaos unfolded exactly as everyone told you they would. Nobody likes being proved so hilariously, catastrophically, consistently and publicly wrong.
I feel your pain.
You've proven nothing. It's only your supreme arrogance that leads you to conclude that.
The EU and the ultra-Remainers have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing. So there will be no progress and no peace.
Very sad
Amusingly IF, (a big if), there was a second vote and remain won, they would be screaming that this settles the matter for at least a (non Scottish) generation.
Nothing will happen. Absolutely nothing. It won't be significant in any way. I mean, what do you feel right now? Nothing. Right?
As I sit here, and the Camden partygoers rock to the pub, and the students queue for the Jazz cafe, and the homeless Roma beg outside Whole Foods, it feels as if there had never been a #PeoplesVoteMarch at all.
It is poignant, how life moves on so swiftly. So brutally.
If we crash out with No Deal though there will soon be millions on the streets demanding EUref2, getting half a million on the streets of London for EUref2 today was a warning shot that we need a Deal or a soft Brexit for Brexit to succeed
Cruz now an average of 7% clear according to RCP. Not looking too close at the moment, sadly.
Midterm turn out is looking like it is going to be close to 2016 levels rather than 2014 levels according to the early voting data. There is no way the AMerican pollsters have the right turnout filter so if the polls are right it is by chance rather than science at the moment.
What way they swing wrong is a complete unknown for which I have no intuition.
I doubt it, no midterm election since WW2 has ever got over 50% turnout. 36% turned out in the 2014 midterms, 56% in the 2016 presidential and congressional election, 41% in the 2010 midterms, 55% in the 2012 presidential and congressional election.
North Carloina is currently on trend with Presidential voting levels.
Though that is early voting, I still doubt very much the midterm turnout will get over 50% nationwide, turnout wise the US midterms normally get about the same turnout as UK local elections
Sure, but mid term early voting is normally way down on Presidential early voting. This time it is level pegging it.
It doesn't seem like it is a universal rise but there are going to be some stonking turnouts across the USA which will fuck the polling.
Weren't early voting numbers hyped up before the 2016 election?
' Some statistical indicators are more useful than others. Data on early voting, for instance, usually doesn’t provide much predictive insight. Historically, the relationship between early voting in a state and the final voting totals there has been weak, and attempts to make inferences from early voting data have made fools of otherwise smart people. In the 2014 midterms, Democrats used early-vote numbers to claim that the polls were underrating their chances. Instead, it was Republicans who substantially beat the polls.
None of this deterred reporters and analysts from frequently citing early vote data in the closing weeks of last year’s presidential campaign, very often taking it to be a favorable indicator for Hillary Clinton. On Oct. 23, for instance, The New York Times argued that because Clinton had banked votes in North Carolina and Florida, it might already be too late for Donald Trump to come back in those states '
Nothing will happen. Absolutely nothing. It won't be significant in any way. I mean, what do you feel right now? Nothing. Right?
As I sit here, and the Camden partygoers rock to the pub, and the students queue for the Jazz cafe, and the homeless Roma beg outside Whole Foods, it feels as if there had never been a #PeoplesVoteMarch at all.
It is poignant, how life moves on so swiftly. So brutally.
If we crash out with No Deal though there will soon be millions on the streets demanding EUref2, getting half a million on the streets of London today was a warning shot that we need a Deal
17.4 million people voting for Leave was the biggest warning shot in the history of our democracy, that the system is broken and no longer working for huge parts of society.
There's a name for half a million people campaigning for the status quo. It's called the establishment.
Nothing will happen. Absolutely nothing. It won't be significant in any way. I mean, what do you feel right now? Nothing. Right?
As I sit here, and the Camden partygoers rock to the pub, and the students queue for the Jazz cafe, and the homeless Roma beg outside Whole Foods, it feels as if there had never been a #PeoplesVoteMarch at all.
It is poignant, how life moves on so swiftly. So brutally.
If we crash out with No Deal though there will soon be millions on the streets demanding EUref2, getting half a million on the streets of London today was a warning shot that we need a Deal
17.4 million people voting for Leave was the biggest warning shot in the history of our democracy, that the system is broken and no longer working for huge parts of society.
There's a name for half a million people campaigning for the status quo. It's called the establishment.
Surprised that Raikkonen was 13 (14 with boost) to top qualifying. I've backed him each way, third the odds top 2. It's looking close between the top four (Ferrari and Mercedes drivers). Nothing clever, I just think the odds are longer than they should be.
Nothing will happen. Absolutely nothing. It won't be significant in any way. I mean, what do you feel right now? Nothing. Right?
As I sit here, and the Camden partygoers rock to the pub, and the students queue for the Jazz cafe, and the homeless Roma beg outside Whole Foods, it feels as if there had never been a #PeoplesVoteMarch at all.
It is poignant, how life moves on so swiftly. So brutally.
If we crash out with No Deal though there will soon be millions on the streets demanding EUref2, getting half a million on the streets of London today was a warning shot that we need a Deal
17.4 million people voting for Leave was the biggest warning shot in the history of our democracy, that the system is broken and no longer working for huge parts of society.
There's a name for half a million people campaigning for the status quo. It's called the establishment.
Nothing will happen. Absolutely nothing. It won't be significant in any way. I mean, what do you feel right now? Nothing. Right?
As I sit here, and the Camden partygoers rock to the pub, and the students queue for the Jazz cafe, and the homeless Roma beg outside Whole Foods, it feels as if there had never been a #PeoplesVoteMarch at all.
It is poignant, how life moves on so swiftly. So brutally.
If we crash out with No Deal though there will soon be millions on the streets demanding EUref2, getting half a million on the streets of London for EUref2 today was a warning shot that we need a Deal
It will be all over by then though, they would need to start a re-join campaign which could take years and will the EU even still exist in say 20 years time?
Also there would need to be at least 17,410,742 of them.
I doubt it, no midterm election since WW2 has ever got over 50% turnout. 36% turned out in the 2014 midterms, 56% in the 2016 presidential and congressional election, 41% in the 2010 midterms, 55% in the 2012 presidential and congressional election.
North Carloina is currently on trend with Presidential voting levels.
Though that is early voting, I still doubt very much the midterm turnout will get over 50% nationwide, turnout wise the US midterms normally get about the same turnout as UK local elections
Sure, but mid term early voting is normally way down on Presidential early voting. This time it is level pegging it.
It doesn't seem like it is a universal rise but there are going to be some stonking turnouts across the USA which will fuck the polling.
Weren't early voting numbers hyped up before the 2016 election?
' Some statistical indicators are more useful than others. Data on early voting, for instance, usually doesn’t provide much predictive insight. Historically, the relationship between early voting in a state and the final voting totals there has been weak, and attempts to make inferences from early voting data have made fools of otherwise smart people. In the 2014 midterms, Democrats used early-vote numbers to claim that the polls were underrating their chances. Instead, it was Republicans who substantially beat the polls.
None of this deterred reporters and analysts from frequently citing early vote data in the closing weeks of last year’s presidential campaign, very often taking it to be a favorable indicator for Hillary Clinton. On Oct. 23, for instance, The New York Times argued that because Clinton had banked votes in North Carolina and Florida, it might already be too late for Donald Trump to come back in those states '
' So what happened? In North Carolina, Clinton won the early vote by 2.5 percentage points, or about 78,000 votes. Furthermore, about two-thirds of votes were cast early. But Trump won the Election Day vote by almost 16 percentage points. That was enough to bring him a relatively healthy, 3.6-point margin of victory over Clinton overall. '
Nothing will happen. Absolutely nothing. It won't be significant in any way. I mean, what do you feel right now? Nothing. Right?
As I sit here, and the Camden partygoers rock to the pub, and the students queue for the Jazz cafe, and the homeless Roma beg outside Whole Foods, it feels as if there had never been a #PeoplesVoteMarch at all.
It is poignant, how life moves on so swiftly. So brutally.
If we crash out with No Deal though there will soon be millions on the streets demanding EUref2, getting half a million on the streets of London today was a warning shot that we need a Deal
17.4 million people voting for Leave was the biggest warning shot in the history of our democracy, that the system is broken and no longer working for huge parts of society.
There's a name for half a million people campaigning for the status quo. It's called the establishment.
17.4 million people who were told a pack of lies by a bunch of lazy, disingenuous politicians turbo-fueled by the foul stench of xenophobia.
Nothing will happen. Absolutely nothing. It won't be significant in any way. I mean, what do you feel right now? Nothing. Right?
As I sit here, and the Camden partygoers rock to the pub, and the students queue for the Jazz cafe, and the homeless Roma beg outside Whole Foods, it feels as if there had never been a #PeoplesVoteMarch at all.
It is poignant, how life moves on so swiftly. So brutally.
If we crash out with No Deal though there will soon be millions on the streets demanding EUref2, getting half a million on the streets of London for EUref2 today was a warning shot that we need a Deal
It will be all over by then though, they would need to start a re-join campaign which could take years and will the EU even still exist in say 20 years time?
Also there would need to be at least 17,410,742 of them.
No, if the negotiations end in November with No Deal that gives 4 months until Brexit day for EUref2 mass demonstrations and indeed an EU ref2 leading to a Remain vote before we are actually due to leave. Brexit can still be cancelled if it is seen by a majority of voters as on unacceptable terms.
To be honest with 40 Tory MPs led by Amber Rudd ready to vote with the opposition for EUref2 over No Deal they would probably get it.
Though that is early voting, I still doubt very much the midterm turnout will get over 50% nationwide, turnout wise the US midterms normally get about the same turnout as UK local elections
Sure, but mid term early voting is normally way down on Presidential early voting. This time it is level pegging it.
It doesn't seem like it is a universal rise but there are going to be some stonking turnouts across the USA which will fuck the polling.
Weren't early voting numbers hyped up before the 2016 election?
' Some statistical indicators are more useful than others. Data on early voting, for instance, usually doesn’t provide much predictive insight. Historically, the relationship between early voting in a state and the final voting totals there has been weak, and attempts to make inferences from early voting data have made fools of otherwise smart people. In the 2014 midterms, Democrats used early-vote numbers to claim that the polls were underrating their chances. Instead, it was Republicans who substantially beat the polls.
None of this deterred reporters and analysts from frequently citing early vote data in the closing weeks of last year’s presidential campaign, very often taking it to be a favorable indicator for Hillary Clinton. On Oct. 23, for instance, The New York Times argued that because Clinton had banked votes in North Carolina and Florida, it might already be too late for Donald Trump to come back in those states '
' So what happened? In North Carolina, Clinton won the early vote by 2.5 percentage points, or about 78,000 votes. Furthermore, about two-thirds of votes were cast early. But Trump won the Election Day vote by almost 16 percentage points. That was enough to bring him a relatively healthy, 3.6-point margin of victory over Clinton overall. '
That's extraordinary. If you think of it in UK terms you would expect Republicans to be older, wealthier, more established in their residence and organised. In short, as fr Tories in this country, you would expect the early voting to favour them by a reasonable margin.
It suggests to me that support for Hillary was cratering by election day, by even more than we realised at the time.
Cruz now an average of 7% clear according to RCP. Not looking too close at the moment, sadly.
Midterm turn out is looking like it is going to be close to 2016 levels rather than 2014 levels according to the early voting data. There is no way the AMerican pollsters have the right turnout filter so if the polls are right it is by chance rather than science at the moment.
What way they swing wrong is a complete unknown for which I have no intuition.
I doubt it, no midterm election since WW2 has ever got over 50% turnout. 36% turned out in the 2014 midterms, 56% in the 2016 presidential and congressional election, 41% in the 2010 midterms, 55% in the 2012 presidential and congressional election.
North Carloina is currently on trend with Presidential voting levels.
Though that is early voting, I still doubt very much the midterm turnout will get over 50% nationwide, turnout wise the US midterms normally get about the same turnout as UK local elections
Sure, but mid term early voting is normally way down on Presidential early voting. This time it is level pegging it.
It doesn't seem like it is a universal rise but there are going to be some stonking turnouts across the USA which will fuck the polling.
Weren't early voting numbers hyped up before the 2016 election?
Bollocks. Not a simple single marcher is in love with the soulless 27 headed monster. They are just people who have been supping on media lies that has got them het up. If you spoke to any of the 116k adults and their children who marched today they will tell you what Brexit means and what will happen. Truth is, they havnt a clue what Brexit means, no one does. We do know that Canadian, Turks, Norwegians, Moroccans ain’t marching to be in it. Of all the countries in the world not in EU, of all the people not in it, do they seem bothered? Does it look like curtains, like the end of the world for them?
Every marcher today just needs to grow up. Stop acting like the skies falling in.
There may a element of truth is some of what you say but in the end it boils down to peoples' jobs, peoples' services and peoples' standard of living. This is what will keep us in the EU (as the alternative is the hardest of hard Brexits). Simples.
Cruz now an average of 7% clear according to RCP. Not looking too close at the moment, sadly.
Midterm turn out is looking like it is going to be close to 2016 levels rather than 2014 levels according to the early voting data. There is no way the AMerican pollsters have the right turnout filter so if the polls are right it is by chance rather than science at the moment.
What way they swing wrong is a complete unknown for which I have no intuition.
I doubt it, no midterm election since WW2 has ever got over 50% turnout. 36% turned out in the 2014 midterms, 56% in the 2016 presidential and congressional election, 41% in the 2010 midterms, 55% in the 2012 presidential and congressional election.
North Carloina is currently on trend with Presidential voting levels.
Though that is early voting, I still doubt very much the midterm turnout will get over 50% nationwide, turnout wise the US midterms normally get about the same turnout as UK local elections
Sure, but mid term early voting is normally way down on Presidential early voting. This time it is level pegging it.
It doesn't seem like it is a universal rise but there are going to be some stonking turnouts across the USA which will fuck the polling.
Ah yes but WHO is turning out
Exactly, not a clue - which is why I'm not betting on it.
That's extraordinary. If you think of it in UK terms you would expect Republicans to be older, wealthier, more established in their residence and organised. In short, as fr Tories in this country, you would expect the early voting to favour them by a reasonable margin.
It suggests to me that support for Hillary was cratering by election day, by even more than we realised at the time.
Or (more prosaically) the people who vote postally are not representative of the full range of voters. This is the reason why the early votes from GE2017 favoured the Conservatives (if I remember "Fall Out" correctly.
Nothing will happen. Absolutely nothing. It won't be significant in any way. I mean, what do you feel right now? Nothing. Right?
As I sit here, and the Camden partygoers rock to the pub, and the students queue for the Jazz cafe, and the homeless Roma beg outside Whole Foods, it feels as if there had never been a #PeoplesVoteMarch at all.
It is poignant, how life moves on so swiftly. So brutally.
If we crash out with No Deal though there will soon be millions on the streets demanding EUref2, getting half a million on the streets of London today was a warning shot that we need a Deal
17.4 million people voting for Leave was the biggest warning shot in the history of our democracy, that the system is broken and no longer working for huge parts of society.
There's a name for half a million people campaigning for the status quo. It's called the establishment.
17.4 million people who were told a pack of lies by a bunch of lazy, disingenuous politicians turbo-fueled by the foul stench of xenophobia.
Was Project Fear the gospel truth then? and wasn't it fuelled by government propaganda paid for with our money and not counted towards campaign expenses?
I just love how butthurt right wingers get at mass protests. Stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity.
As opposed to the two plus years of stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity-fest of Remainderdom?
See, look! You're doing it right now!
The lack of self-awareness of petulant Brexiteers when they're at their most objectionably self-pitying is kinda adorable.
I have to admit, though. I do *understand* why you're so angry. The remainers have been trying to tell you for years what was going to happen, and you ignored them.
And then the remainers were proved absolutely correct and the chaos unfolded exactly as everyone told you they would. Nobody likes being proved so hilariously, catastrophically, consistently and publicly wrong.
I feel your pain.
You've proven nothing. It's only your supreme arrogance that leads you to conclude that.
The EU and the ultra-Remainers have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing. So there will be no progress and no peace.
Very sad
Amusingly IF, (a big if), there was a second vote and remain won, they would be screaming that this settles the matter for at least a (non Scottish) generation.
Yeah they actually think that if Remain should win a second referendum that Leavers will shut up and go away - As the Fireplace salesman once said - Good luck with that after the way Remainers have behaved ever since 2016...
Quick question does anyone know where I can find a breakdown of who voted for and against the EU Referendum Act 2015. Tried searching Hansard and Wiki but struggling to find it.
Arguing with a Swede on another site who is insisting that the referendum was something enforced on NI against the wishes of NI MPs and voters but I suspect that the DUP at least would have voted for it. Anyone with a link to a breakdown?
That's extraordinary. If you think of it in UK terms you would expect Republicans to be older, wealthier, more established in their residence and organised. In short, as fr Tories in this country, you would expect the early voting to favour them by a reasonable margin.
It suggests to me that support for Hillary was cratering by election day, by even more than we realised at the time.
USA early voting is not like UK early voting. Early voting is favoured by African Americans for various reasons and is, as a result, normally highly Dem heavy.
It is one of the reasons why since Selby County vs Holder there has been the aggressive tragetted shutting down of early voting.
Do not underestimate this march, my right-wing friend!
Learn the lessons from Tony Blair and Iraq.
Did he call off the invasion then?
oh
But his majority was slashed by a 100 2 years later and he had to leave No 10 4 years later
Nope! he wasn't obliged to leave at all and could have carried on until 2010 and who's to say he wouldn't have won again, Brown almost did.
Blair chose to honour the Granita pact which wasn't legally binding and had over to Brown as they had agreed after the death of John Smith.
No that is wrong. Blair announced before the 2005 election that it would be his last election as leader and he was forced to name a departure date by unrest in the PLP in the Autumn of 2006. The immediate cause of this was his attitude toward Israeli military action in Lebanon but underlying tensions with Brown and the legacy of Iraq also played a part.
I just love how butthurt right wingers get at mass protests. Stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity.
As opposed to the two plus years of stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity-fest of Remainderdom?
See, look! You're doing it right now!
The lack of self-awareness of petulant Brexiteers when they're at their most objectionably self-pitying is kinda adorable.
I have to admit, though. I do *understand* why you're so angry. The remainers have been trying to tell you for years what was going to happen, and you ignored them.
And then the remainers were proved absolutely correct and the chaos unfolded exactly as everyone told you they would. Nobody likes being proved so hilariously, catastrophically, consistently and publicly wrong.
I feel your pain.
You've proven nothing. It's only your supreme arrogance that leads you to conclude that.
The EU and the ultra-Remainers have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing. So there will be no progress and no peace.
Very sad
Amusingly IF, (a big if), there was a second vote and remain won, they would be screaming that this settles the matter for at least a (non Scottish) generation.
Yeah they actually think that if Remain should win a second referendum that Leavers will shut up and go away - As the Fireplace salesman once said - Good luck with that after the way Remainers have behaved ever since 2016...
Demographics though favour Remain, Leavers really need this Brexit to succeed as this may be their last chance, if they push too hard and demand No Deal they may blow it and we will not actually leave the EU at all
I just love how butthurt right wingers get at mass protests. Stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity.
As opposed to the two plus years of stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity-fest of Remainderdom?
See, look! You're doing it right now!
The lack of self-awareness of petulant Brexiteers when they're at their most objectionably self-pitying is kinda adorable.
I have to admit, though. I do *understand* why you're so angry. The remainers have been trying to tell you for years what was going to happen, and you ignored them.
And then the remainers were proved absolutely correct and the chaos unfolded exactly as everyone told you they would. Nobody likes being proved so hilariously, catastrophically, consistently and publicly wrong.
I feel your pain.
You've proven nothing. It's only your supreme arrogance that leads you to conclude that.
The EU and the ultra-Remainers have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing. So there will be no progress and no peace.
Very sad
Amusingly IF, (a big if), there was a second vote and remain won, they would be screaming that this settles the matter for at least a (non Scottish) generation.
Yeah they actually think that if Remain should win a second referendum that Leavers will shut up and go away - As the Fireplace salesman once said - Good luck with that after the way Remainers have behaved ever since 2016...
But now a lot more people know what Brexit involves.
Quick question does anyone know where I can find a breakdown of who voted for and against the EU Referendum Act 2015. Tried searching Hansard and Wiki but struggling to find it.
Arguing with a Swede on another site who is insisting that the referendum was something enforced on NI against the wishes of NI MPs and voters but I suspect that the DUP at least would have voted for it. Anyone with a link to a breakdown?
My main problem with a second referendum is that I have yet to meet anyone on either side who would vote any differently. There are a number of younger people who would vote in this one but I'm not sure that there'd be enough to tip the balance. it would remain very close and not resolve the situation in the long term.
Do we have any data underpinning this? Surely there comes a point when young smart folk will tip the balance in favour of Remain assuming a certain attrition of the population and everything remaining the same.
I just love how butthurt right wingers get at mass protests. Stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity.
As opposed to the two plus years of stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity-fest of Remainderdom?
See, look! You're doing it right now!
The lack of self-awareness of petulant Brexiteers when they're at their most objectionably self-pitying is kinda adorable.
I have to admit, though. I do *understand* why you're so angry. The remainers have been trying to tell you for years what was going to happen, and you ignored them.
And then the remainers were proved absolutely correct and the chaos unfolded exactly as everyone told you they would. Nobody likes being proved so hilariously, catastrophically, consistently and publicly wrong.
I feel your pain.
You've proven nothing. It's only your supreme arrogance that leads you to conclude that.
The EU and the ultra-Remainers have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing. So there will be no progress and no peace.
Very sad
Amusingly IF, (a big if), there was a second vote and remain won, they would be screaming that this settles the matter for at least a (non Scottish) generation.
Yeah they actually think that if Remain should win a second referendum that Leavers will shut up and go away - As the Fireplace salesman once said - Good luck with that after the way Remainers have behaved ever since 2016...
But now a lot more people know what Brexit involves.
Remaindermen won't go away either if leave won a second referendum, the past form history of the EU is ask the voters to vote again and again until they get the result they want.
The lack of self-awareness of petulant Brexiteers when they're at their most objectionably self-pitying is kinda adorable.
I have to admit, though. I do *understand* why you're so angry. The remainers have been trying to tell you for years what was going to happen, and you ignored them.
And then the remainers were proved absolutely correct and the chaos unfolded exactly as everyone told you they would. Nobody likes being proved so hilariously, catastrophically, consistently and publicly wrong.
I feel your pain.
What "chaos" ? I've not seen any "chaos" except for Remain politicians and the establishment throwing an almighty strop and trying every trick in the book to thrwart the vote.
Other than that everything has been fine... Including the economic numbers which have all gone in the right direction over the past few months.
Quick question does anyone know where I can find a breakdown of who voted for and against the EU Referendum Act 2015. Tried searching Hansard and Wiki but struggling to find it.
Arguing with a Swede on another site who is insisting that the referendum was something enforced on NI against the wishes of NI MPs and voters but I suspect that the DUP at least would have voted for it. Anyone with a link to a breakdown?
I just love how butthurt right wingers get at mass protests. Stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity.
As opposed to the two plus years of stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity-fest of Remainderdom?
See, look! You're doing it right now!
The lack of self-awareness of petulant Brexiteers when they're at their most objectionably self-pitying is kinda adorable.
I have to admit, though. I do *understand* why you're so angry. The remainers have been trying to tell you for years what was going to happen, and you ignored them.
And then the remainers were proved absolutely correct and the chaos unfolded exactly as everyone told you they would. Nobody likes being proved so hilariously, catastrophically, consistently and publicly wrong.
I feel your pain.
You've proven nothing. It's only your supreme arrogance that leads you to conclude that.
The EU and the ultra-Remainers have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing. So there will be no progress and no peace.
Very sad
Amusingly IF, (a big if), there was a second vote and remain won, they would be screaming that this settles the matter for at least a (non Scottish) generation.
Yeah they actually think that if Remain should win a second referendum that Leavers will shut up and go away - As the Fireplace salesman once said - Good luck with that after the way Remainers have behaved ever since 2016...
Demographics though favour Remain, Leavers really need this Brexit to succeed as this may be their last chance, if they push too hard and demand No Deal they may blow it and we will not actually leave the EU at all
I think this demographic argument is spurious to say the least. It seems to me the older you get the more eurosceptic you become. A lot of the oldies voted yes in 73 and then voted out. the cut off where leave was ascendant was about 40 odd. Seems to me experience of the real world i.e the jobs market, healthcare, schooling mean that people become on average more eurosceptic.
"My father was a diplomat. He earned a modest Civil Service salary. But my mother had inherited a few thousand pounds from her late father. So in 1964 they used that money to buy a five-bedroom detached house opposite Kew Gardens in south-west London. It cost £8,000."
' It has been at least 20 years since I realised that, even though I was earning more than my father had ever made in his life, I could never hope to afford to live in a house like the one I grew up in, nor give my children the kind of education he provided for me and my sisters. '
What we've been seeing at various speeds and to varying extents around the country is middle class regression.
The author is a writer who was educated at Eton and had a detached house in Richmond Park.
He lives in what he describes as a 'rambling old cottage with a lovely garden' near Chichester and his children went to a local primary and a West Sussex comprehensive, Bishop Luffa, rated Outstanding. Please forgive me if I do not shed too many tears over this tale of woe and downward mobility, it is hardly Dickensian!
But it is a fact that home ownership levels have fallen significantly among the young during the last two decades.
Though not as quickly as student debts have risen.
We London middle classes aged 45 and under have just had to reduce our expectations.
My mate, a QC, lives in a slightly cramped house in Hackney. It’s considered fancy by local standards but nevertheless, it’s Hackney. I live down the road. We hang in a group of corporate lawyers who have all had to make do somehow.
A generation ago, we’d all be in 5-beds in Hampstead.
I was born in a beautiful detached house in Kensington. I can barely afford a semi in zone 2 these days...
Quick question does anyone know where I can find a breakdown of who voted for and against the EU Referendum Act 2015. Tried searching Hansard and Wiki but struggling to find it.
Arguing with a Swede on another site who is insisting that the referendum was something enforced on NI against the wishes of NI MPs and voters but I suspect that the DUP at least would have voted for it. Anyone with a link to a breakdown?
Quick question does anyone know where I can find a breakdown of who voted for and against the EU Referendum Act 2015. Tried searching Hansard and Wiki but struggling to find it.
Arguing with a Swede on another site who is insisting that the referendum was something enforced on NI against the wishes of NI MPs and voters but I suspect that the DUP at least would have voted for it. Anyone with a link to a breakdown?
Quick question does anyone know where I can find a breakdown of who voted for and against the EU Referendum Act 2015. Tried searching Hansard and Wiki but struggling to find it.
Arguing with a Swede on another site who is insisting that the referendum was something enforced on NI against the wishes of NI MPs and voters but I suspect that the DUP at least would have voted for it. Anyone with a link to a breakdown?
Nothing will happen. Absolutely nothing. It won't be significant in any way. I mean, what do you feel right now? Nothing. Right?
As I sit here, and the Camden partygoers rock to the pub, and the students queue for the Jazz cafe, and the homeless Roma beg outside Whole Foods, it feels as if there had never been a #PeoplesVoteMarch at all.
It is poignant, how life moves on so swiftly. So brutally.
If we crash out with No Deal though there will soon be millions on the streets demanding EUref2, getting half a million on the streets of London for EUref2 today was a warning shot that we need a Deal
It will be all over by then though, they would need to start a re-join campaign which could take years and will the EU even still exist in say 20 years time?
Also there would need to be at least 17,410,742 of them.
No, if the negotiations end in November with No Deal that gives 4 months until Brexit day for EUref2 mass demonstrations and indeed an EU ref2 leading to a Remain vote before we are actually due to leave. Brexit can still be cancelled if it is seen by a majority of voters as on unacceptable terms.
To be honest with 40 Tory MPs led by Amber Rudd ready to vote with the opposition for EUref2 over No Deal they would probably get it.
The lack of self-awareness of petulant Brexiteers when they're at their most objectionably self-pitying is kinda adorable.
I have to admit, though. I do *understand* why you're so angry. The remainers have been trying to tell you for years what was going to happen, and you ignored them.
And then the remainers were proved absolutely correct and the chaos unfolded exactly as everyone told you they would. Nobody likes being proved so hilariously, catastrophically, consistently and publicly wrong.
I feel your pain.
What "chaos" ? I've not seen any "chaos" except for Remain politicians and the establishment throwing an almighty strop and trying every trick in the book to thrwart the vote.
Other than that everything has been fine... Including the economic numbers which have all gone in the right direction over the past few months.
We haven't left yet and if anything there is a growing expectation that we will probably remain in the EU or at worst BINO.
I just love how butthurt right wingers get at mass protests. Stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity.
As opposed to the two plus years of stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity-fest of Remainderdom?
See, look! You're doing it right now!
The lack of self-awareness of petulant Brexiteers when they're at their most objectionably self-pitying is kinda adorable.
I have to admit, though. I do *understand* why you're so angry. The remainers have been trying to tell you for years what was going to happen, and you ignored them.
And then the remainers were proved absolutely correct and the chaos unfolded exactly as everyone told you they would. Nobody likes being proved so hilariously, catastrophically, consistently and publicly wrong.
I feel your pain.
You've proven nothing. It's only your supreme arrogance that leads you to conclude that.
The EU and the ultra-Remainers have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing. So there will be no progress and no peace.
Very sad
Amusingly IF, (a big if), there was a second vote and remain won, they would be screaming that this settles the matter for at least a (non Scottish) generation.
Yeah they actually think that if Remain should win a second referendum that Leavers will shut up and go away - As the Fireplace salesman once said - Good luck with that after the way Remainers have behaved ever since 2016...
Demographics though favour Remain, Leavers really need this Brexit to succeed as this may be their last chance, if they push too hard and demand No Deal they may blow it and we will not actually leave the EU at all
They are very, very close to blowing it already I think. A satisfactory deal seems almost impossible and without one a second referendum will become unavoidable.
I just love how butthurt right wingers get at mass protests. Stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity.
As opposed to the two plus years of stamping their feet and sulking in an endlessly unattractive petulant self-pity-fest of Remainderdom?
See, look! You're doing it right now!
The lack of self-awareness of petulant Brexiteers when they're at their most objectionably self-pitying is kinda adorable.
I have to admit, though. I do *understand* why you're so angry. The remainers have been trying to tell you for years what was going to happen, and you ignored them.
And then the remainers were proved absolutely correct and the chaos unfolded exactly as everyone told you they would. Nobody likes being proved so hilariously, catastrophically, consistently and publicly wrong.
I feel your pain.
You've proven nothing. It's only your supreme arrogance that leads you to conclude that.
The EU and the ultra-Remainers have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing. So there will be no progress and no peace.
Very sad
Amusingly IF, (a big if), there was a second vote and remain won, they would be screaming that this settles the matter for at least a (non Scottish) generation.
Yeah they actually think that if Remain should win a second referendum that Leavers will shut up and go away - As the Fireplace salesman once said - Good luck with that after the way Remainers have behaved ever since 2016...
Demographics though favour Remain, Leavers really need this Brexit to succeed as this may be their last chance, if they push too hard and demand No Deal they may blow it and we will not actually leave the EU at all
Nope! wrong again, not your day is it? There was a referendum in 1975 which was heavily in favour of remain, but we know that people over 59 voted heavily for leave in 2016 so they must have matured into leave voters.
Everybody has grown two years older since the 2016 referendum and some of the remain voters will have again matured into leavers cancelling out the new voters who have become of voting age since and who might be more likely to vote remain.
Comments
But with a 'world city' such as London that might not apply.
We forget how powerful inflation was in the late 70s and early 80s. Of course, that was also due to wage rises more than keeping pace with said inflation. I roughly dectupled my salary between '81 and '90. I wasn't alone.
In Blaenau Gwent House prices are 3.3 times salary, in Copeland 2.9 times salary.
In London though house prices are 10 times average salary so it is also a problem most acute in London, in the North and Wales house price affordability is much less of an issue than in London and the Home Counties.
https://propertymoose.co.uk/blog/average-first-time-buyer-changed-age-salary-deposit/
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/august2018#uk-annual-growth-rate-remains-stable
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator
" And the idea that it was something to do with class war is just silly - the same Bill took out (rather more effectively) the largely working-class sport of hare coursing."
@NickPalmer
With the banning of legal Hare coursing there has been a large rise in Illegal hare coursing. These illegal poachers intimidate landowners, damage property and hurt people. To claim that hare coursing has been "took out" is simply disingenuous. The situation has been made worse.
In the same way, Corbyn is not really against Brexit, so if the same percentage of votes changed hands over this protest march it would only make Labour the largest party.
However the Tories ran a terrible campaign in 2017 which they probably won't repeat, Brexit is not guaranteed to be a disaster despite the prophesies of so many mainly self appointed 'experts' and the Tories could change leader before 2022.
Corbyn can't win over the middle ground like Blair did and a better leader than Michael Howard could see the Tories win again, even if the boundary changes don't happen.
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86175
https://twitter.com/oldnorthstpol/status/1053696722814332928?s=19
They did bump up in the 80s following loosening of lending regulations and again through the 90s/00s as interest rates became lower
They have skyrocketed in the last 10 years as asset prices have inflated and salaries stagnated
Learn the lessons from Tony Blair and Iraq.
"My father was a diplomat. He earned a modest Civil Service salary. But my mother had inherited a few thousand pounds from her late father. So in 1964 they used that money to buy a five-bedroom detached house opposite Kew Gardens in south-west London. It cost £8,000."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/10377807/Well-never-have-it-so-good-again.html
£8,000 in 1964 would be about £155,000 today.
The far left and a lot of the far right were against the war as were the Liberals and Greens. In favour were the right wing of the Labour party and most Tories.
Against Brexit you've got the Liberals and Greens again, the right wing of the Labour party and some Tories, you don't have the far left who like the far right, UKIP and most Tories are in favour of or at least will accept Brexit.
' It has been at least 20 years since I realised that, even though I was earning more than my father had ever made in his life, I could never hope to afford to live in a house like the one I grew up in, nor give my children the kind of education he provided for me and my sisters. '
What we've been seeing at various speeds and to varying extents around the country is middle class regression.
I don't detect that laziness is the problem with young people. It is possible that social media and the rise of smart technology has made people more narcissistic but that's not quite the same thing.
He's done far more real thinking on Brexit than any of his compatriots have.
He lives in what he describes as a 'rambling old cottage with a lovely garden' near Chichester and his children went to a local primary and a West Sussex comprehensive, Bishop Luffa, rated Outstanding. Please forgive me if I do not shed too many tears over this tale of woe and downward mobility, it is hardly Dickensian!
The EU and the ultra-Remainers have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing. So there will be no progress and no peace.
Very sad
Though not as quickly as student debts have risen.
Unlikely I'll tip anything but if the odds are wonky on Bottas/Raikkonen, we'll see. Bottas was 7 (down from 8.5) for top qualifying time before third practice. Vettel had gone from around 4.5 to 7 (slightly odd, as he'll still be trying to qualify as best he can). Expect the latter to shorten again but Bottas' odds may lengthen.
I don’t find him a deep thinker, but I highly recommend his Anger Management podcast. The interview with Joe Biden is great, especially if you are on the left.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/jan/22/collapse-homeownership-property-ons-report
In 2015 the Tories were tied with Labour amongst 35-44 year olds, just 2 years later they trailed Labour by 16%.
By contrast the Tory lead amongst over 65s rose from 24% in 2015 to 36%. The difference was not due to house prices but Brexit
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2015
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2017-election
Mr. T, do you think it's a good thing that said encouragement increases the potential for no deal?
It doesn't seem like it is a universal rise but there are going to be some stonking turnouts across the USA which will fuck the polling.
Every marcher today just needs to grow up. Stop acting like the skies falling in.
My mate, a QC, lives in a slightly cramped house in Hackney. It’s considered fancy by local standards but nevertheless, it’s Hackney. I live down the road. We hang in a group of corporate lawyers who have all had to make do somehow.
A generation ago, we’d all be in 5-beds in Hampstead.
It's probably the biggest single reason behind my decision to vote Leave.
None of this deterred reporters and analysts from frequently citing early vote data in the closing weeks of last year’s presidential campaign, very often taking it to be a favorable indicator for Hillary Clinton. On Oct. 23, for instance, The New York Times argued that because Clinton had banked votes in North Carolina and Florida, it might already be too late for Donald Trump to come back in those states '
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/
oh
There's a name for half a million people campaigning for the status quo. It's called the establishment.
Betting PostF1: pre-qualifying ramble: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/10/us-pre-qualifying-2018.html
Surprised that Raikkonen was 13 (14 with boost) to top qualifying. I've backed him each way, third the odds top 2. It's looking close between the top four (Ferrari and Mercedes drivers). Nothing clever, I just think the odds are longer than they should be.
Also there would need to be at least 17,410,742 of them.
And today's marchers will likewise be vindicated, quite quickly I think.
' So what happened? In North Carolina, Clinton won the early vote by 2.5 percentage points, or about 78,000 votes. Furthermore, about two-thirds of votes were cast early. But Trump won the Election Day vote by almost 16 percentage points. That was enough to bring him a relatively healthy, 3.6-point margin of victory over Clinton overall. '
To be honest with 40 Tory MPs led by Amber Rudd ready to vote with the opposition for EUref2 over No Deal they would probably get it.
Plus don't forget 16, 141, 241 voted Remain too
It suggests to me that support for Hillary was cratering by election day, by even more than we realised at the time.
Blair chose to honour the Granita pact which wasn't legally binding and had over to Brown as they had agreed after the death of John Smith.
https://twitter.com/foxandfriends/status/1053605745147764736?s=21
Arguing with a Swede on another site who is insisting that the referendum was something enforced on NI against the wishes of NI MPs and voters but I suspect that the DUP at least would have voted for it. Anyone with a link to a breakdown?
It is one of the reasons why since Selby County vs Holder there has been the aggressive tragetted shutting down of early voting.
You will have to add up the totals.
And forgotten about on Monday.
Other than that everything has been fine... Including the economic numbers which have all gone in the right direction over the past few months.
A lot of the oldies voted yes in 73 and then voted out.
the cut off where leave was ascendant was about 40 odd.
Seems to me experience of the real world i.e the jobs market, healthcare, schooling mean that people become on average more eurosceptic.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2015/june/commons-second-reading-european-union-referendum-bill/
Certainly some DUP MPs voted for it according to that list.
Of course Sinn Fein MPs wouldn't have voted for it but they wouldn't have voted against it either.
https://services.parliament.uk/Bills/2015-16/europeanunionreferendum/stages.html
Everybody has grown two years older since the 2016 referendum and some of the remain voters will have again matured into leavers cancelling out the new voters who have become of voting age since and who might be more likely to vote remain.