As the day goes on I feel very sorry for May. What a truly impossible position she is now in.
You what?!
She had a majority, she had a mandate, she had a job to do. The country didn't need an election. It didn't want it. She called it for Party purposes. She thought she saw an opportunity to exploit Opposition weaknesses and enhance her own and her Party's position. The needs of the country were regarded as secondary, at best.
You want to feel sorry for anybody? Feel sorry for the electorate that has been pissed about again by a Government and MPs who put themselves first, and everything else a long way behind.
I feel sorry for her on a personal level, she was probably at the end of the day pushed in to calling the election because of the uncertainty over the election expenses charges.
I don't really feel sorry for the electorate at all, they have completely unrealistic expectations. The guy that fucked up was Cameron in failing to make any preperations for a leave vote last year, we are all just cleaning up the mess from that.
"The big betting lesson, once again, is that the probability distribution is flatter than your might think. No betting the farm on 'free money' like Con Maj at 1.25, and always try to mirror bets at both ends of the distribution (in this case, some bets on Labour compensated for on bets on the Tories).
"
Lots of models last night had seat predictions that were rated as 95% or 99% certainties going awry.
Beware Of The Tails.
I hardly ever bet short odds on. Given the uncertainties in any punter's estimate of the true odds of gamble, for a bet at 1.25 to make sense it must be all but INCONCEIVABLE that it will lose. How any serious punter could square an obviously abysmal campaign with an all but inconceivable loss is beyond my ken.
Don't mention the 1.25 bets. Betting on that turned a win for me into a big loss.
I think May (or whoever leads the Tories) will be able to get Brexit related legislation through the HoC because voting them down simply isn't a viable alternative.
Big ask. Anything that isn't single market friendly will be problematic.
I haven't really looked at it but what is there actually related to the Brexit negotiations that Parliament gets to have a say on? Ignoring what we do off our own backs such as the repeal bill.
Interesting that it's a late change of headline. On the radio earlier he said they were probably going to go with 'hung out to dry'. But yes, this is better.
There is one Tory with the brains to create a new agenda, competence to rebuild respect for the party and the talent to lead the party back to popularity.
He is editing the Evening Standard.
And he is behaving in a manner so infantile that you'd be disappointed to see it in the editor of an undergraduate newspaper. He srewed us by letting his not so bright mate Dave lose EURef, he has screwed us for the foreseeable with FTPA, and it's all a big lucrative joke to him.
2016 Scotland Election SNP 48.8% of seats Sturgeon is re-elected as First Minister and unopposed as such
2017 UK General Election Tories 49.0% of seats May is "rejected" according to some here and must go. Go figure.
Incidentally if you look at Great Britain seats like we look at Great Britain opinion polls: Tories 50.5% of seats.
The party that won a majority of Great Britain is working with the party that won a majority of Northern Ireland.
It's like saying John Major should have resigned in 1992, after the Conservative lead was cut by 80%.
No it's not. It's one thing falling back in an election called because you've reached the end of the term. It's quite a different matter falling back in an election called specifically in order to get a large mandate for your approach to a very difficult negotiation.
The latter is embarrassing and a self-inflicted wound but her party still won the election with a majority of British seats and a working majority with the DUP in Parliament.
I think May (or whoever leads the Tories) will be able to get Brexit related legislation through the HoC because voting them down simply isn't a viable alternative.
Big ask. Anything that isn't single market friendly will be problematic.
Great Repeal Bill (however named) should pass because all it does is transpose EU to UK law to maintain business-as-usual.
There will be fights over the specifics, but nothing that derails talks. Also, I'd expect the final "deal" to pass, because the alternative will be no deal.
I think May (or whoever leads the Tories) will be able to get Brexit related legislation through the HoC because voting them down simply isn't a viable alternative.
Big ask. Anything that isn't single market friendly will be problematic.
I haven't really looked at it but what is there actually related to the Brexit negotiations that Parliament gets to have a say on? Ignoring what we do off our own backs such as the repeal bill.
I don't think so but the repeal bill will be a nightmare to navigate through this parliament.
There is one Tory with the brains to create a new agenda, competence to rebuild respect for the party and the talent to lead the party back to popularity.
He is editing the Evening Standard.
And he is behaving in a manner so infantile that you'd be disappointed to see it in the editor of an undergraduate newspaper. He srewed us by letting his not so bright mate Dave lose EURef, he has screwed us for the foreseeable with FTPA, and it's all a big lucrative joke to him.
No. He is doing what he has always done. He is doing his job with with wit.
Just imagine if he was still inside the tent pissing out.
Sympathies to Aaron and thanks for his as always good-natured and level-headed analysis.
As I said on the last thread, I think that from a purely partisan Labour viewpoint, it's absolutely great to have May stumble on for a while with help from Northern Irish extremists (something which makes the stuff about Corbyn hobnobbing with Sinn Fein 40 years ago look distinctly dated).
But in the national interest? Not so much. It really will not last.
I don't really think he owes her too much. Her biggest weakness is an inability to be conciliatory. If she doesn't learn very quickly how to work with others, she is just not going to be able to govern.
If it wasn't for the fact the alternative was Corbyn, I'd recommend throwing in the towel now and letting a Labour minority try and sort this out.
But, seeing as Corbyn represents a clear and present danger to the UK, anything or anyone that keeps him out of office is doing a national service.
Every day she stays in situ makes Corbyn PM more likely.
Realistically is there any way that isn't going to happen now? The Tories aren't going to be able to get their shit together between now and the next election surely?
How did Corbyn win? He got fewer seats, fewer votes and will not be forming the Government. Not to take anything away from his performance but he certainly didn't win anything under any of the three main metrics by which an election is normally judged.
He won the argument within Labour, and got centrists to vote for the Loony Left.
The centre was trashed, Brokenwheel. Where were voters like me supposed to go - to the Party that took us out of Europe and is dominated by its europhobic and right wing elements?
Osborne is doing his job, but watch him last night he wasn't gloating or happy at the result. He was gutted at times seeing his party and their performance.
It doesn't matter how favourable the opinion polls the Tories are not going to vote for another election so this Parliament is going 5 years, isn't it.
As for May in Downing Street, the woman is totally deluded.
Look how similar the numbers are to 2010. Then it was Gordo who was thought mad for wanting to stay on with only 8 seats less than Corbyn while Cameron was thought to be entitled the keys to No10 w a dozen fewer seats than May has now!
No, it's about the numbers. There was no realistic combination of parties to get Gordon Brown to 326 seats from second place. There is to get May (and then a successor) there from first place.
Yes that's what I am saying. Corbyn is Brown, yet May is not considered to be in as good a position as Cam. The mo is against her but was with Cam
Cameron (who I continue to say was a poor politician overall) did not call an unnecessary election and then give the impression of having made absolutely no preparation at all. He made plenty of mistakes but at least in 2010 arrogance and assuming he would win no matter what he did was not one of them.
People are not just attacking May as a matter of historical record because of what she has done (or failed to do) but because she has a crucial task ahead of her and people do not believe she is up to it. Once the public has lost faith in a politician it is almost impossible to get it back. The classic example is Major in 1992-97. No matter that the economy was doing well by the time the election came around. People lost faith him at the time of the ERM issue and he never got their trust back.
May should be toast. Whether she is or not is another matter.
Personally I think Priti should go for leader when the opportunity arises.
Fair enough. I am not cheerleading for May, just noting how perception matters more than the raw numbers, hence my question about the Big Mo
Well if she thinks she's going to go on till 2022 she better get a good medical team. Five byelections and she's in big trouble.
One by-election and she is in trouble as there is nothing to stop Sinn Fein taking their seats to kick out their arch enemies.
Sinn Fein are not going to take up their seats in Westminster. This is as close to a law of physics that you can get in politics.
Another one? It seems that these great laws have a habit these days of being broken.
Even if Sinn Fein take up their seats, it doesn't get Labour into government.
Tories + DUP = 328 Coalition of Chaos = 315 exc. SF
FWIW, this is quite easily the outcome we could have had two years ago if the original exit poll had been right, and Lynton Crosby's sniper targeting had been just slightly worse.
Cameron would have wanted to try with Clegg's 8 remaining LDs, but their appetite for coalition or S&C would have been shot, and he might have had to dance with the DUP as well.
In which case, the EU referendum would still have happened.
There is one Tory with the brains to create a new agenda, competence to rebuild respect for the party and the talent to lead the party back to popularity.
He is editing the Evening Standard.
Don't know about that at all. People say May is toxic. I disagree, you don't get 13.6m votes/43.5% GB vote share if you're toxic. But Osborne genuinely is toxic, in terms of appeal to voters there are surely far more who would "never vote for Osborne" than "never vote for May". (At least until today! Don't think TMay is doing her brand any favours today.)
Could Osborne set out a positive direction for the Tories to follow? Could Osborne strategise a winning position? He has the talent for both, I am sure.
But could Osborne lead his party, and face the electorate? I think he needs plenty of years out of the game, to undergo some kind of Michael Portillo/Ed Balls style detox and public reappraisal, before he is able to do that. Time's on his side if he wanted to (and he would benefit from Brexit being done and dusted before he stepped into the political limelight again anyway, since he'd have difficulty attracting Leave voters if the issue was still live). At the moment, a lot of people hate his guts. I don't know a single Tory politician who generates so much visceral detest among potential swing voters I know, and I think there's something in what tim (late of this parish) said about the 2010 election - had Cameron dumped Osborne and Letwin well before the lead-up to that, he may well have won a majority first time round.
Would also help with detox if Osborne "went on a journey" - but he seems far too smug for that.
" The DUP manifesto says the party wants a "comprehensive free trade and customs agreement with the European Union.
The document also reveals splits with the Tories over pensions and winter fuels payments. The DUP pledges to maintain the pension triple lock, while the Tories jettisoned the 2.5 per cent rise safeguard.
Their manifesto also says they are committed to winter fuel payments and they pledge to “resist any assault” on what it sees as an important universal benefit.
Arlene Foster has also said the party remains opposed to any reform of the province’s notoriously strict abortion laws.
She said last year that she would not want abortion to be as freely available here as it is in England. "
Osborne is doing his job, but watch him last night he wasn't gloating or happy at the result. He was gutted at times seeing his party and their performance.
I think May (or whoever leads the Tories) will be able to get Brexit related legislation through the HoC because voting them down simply isn't a viable alternative.
Big ask. Anything that isn't single market friendly will be problematic.
Good. Too much legislation. Anyway. If they were to devote 2-3 days a week to scrutinising Brexit that would be fine
I rarely disagree with Lord JohnO of Hersham but here I do.
The PM should have done a Cameron. Announce her intention to go as soon as a new leader could be elected. Draw a line under the shamble and take the initiative. Instead the Conservative are limping along with a dead weight leader who has attached herself to the toxic DUP like an anchor around a drowning man. The Prime Minister is little short of a walking talking laughing stock.
Do the Conservatives really believe clinging to a life line with the DUP will delight the type of voter they aim to attract. May has allowed personal survival and short term expediency to override the interests of the nation and her party.
Theresa May called the general election for party gain. It was a shabby decision and she has been found out. She diminishes her office and herself further by staying a nano second longer than she must.
Whilst I don't disagree on the main sentiment, changing leader won't alter the fact that we're dependent on the DUP.
The answer is for May and the new leader not to attach themselves to the DUP and defy them to vote you down. Govern for the whole nation and not part of Ulster. Remember the government also has the card of no current government in Stormont.
Every week attached to the DUP is a disaster. The Opposition will clamp you to all their "interesting" views like barnacles. Toxic doesn't come close.
"We will not be held to ransom by the DUP" is a better feel that dancing with the devil. The cartoon of May on an Orangeman's top pocket is as powerful as Miliband as Sturgeon's puppet.
The more I look at the results, it is blindingly obvious it is thanks to Ruth Davidson that Jeremy Corbyn isn't Prime Minister today.
Corbyn wouldn't have been able to form a Government, realistically, with 308 combined Labour and SNP seats (the total had the Conservatives not made 12 gains in Scotland).
That's not to say May and the DUP could have done so with 317. I suspect she'd have had no choice but to act as a caretaker for a few weeks and hand over to a successor, with a certain second election in the Autumn.
So May owes Davidson her political life (albeit it's now barely a life). But Corbyn wouldn't be visiting the Queen today - I can't see the mechanics for that in the counterfactual.
The more I look at the results, it is blindingly obvious it is thanks to Ruth Davidson that Jeremy Corbyn isn't Prime Minister today.
Have you not noticed my new avatar this morning. She's a complete heroine for the blues and the nation as a whole. As I randomly posited earlier could she be a deputy pm or something in a national role. She also recouped all my losses on the Tory maj this time I got out after crossover. With Brexit I went to bed and hoped it was all going to be OK. A lesson learned!
I listened to Freakonomics latest episode with Steve Hilton, worth a listen. He was talking about why Sanders and Trump were so popular in the US and his thoughts on the rise of popularism.
I think we just seen what he was talking about with the GE yesterday.
Mr. Jonathan, it's been said here that Osborne's actually rather likeable in person.
I've never gotten the horrendous vibe from him I have from others, personally.
F1: shortly there shall be a Canadian Grand Prix. It is vital for the interests of betting that I provide strong and stable tips. I shall therefore be writing snap articles about the forthcoming race, in the national interest.
Osborne is doing his job, but watch him last night he wasn't gloating or happy at the result. He was gutted at times seeing his party and their performance.
Yes, to be fair to him, I noticed that.
He's still a Tory.
Ultimately he's seen 15 years of his life's work wasted in one evening. And the loss of some MPs who he was probably friends with or had worked hard at getting elected in the first place.
" The DUP manifesto says the party wants a "comprehensive free trade and customs agreement with the European Union.
The document also reveals splits with the Tories over pensions and winter fuels payments. The DUP pledges to maintain the pension triple lock, while the Tories jettisoned the 2.5 per cent rise safeguard.
Their manifesto also says they are committed to winter fuel payments and they pledge to “resist any assault” on what it sees as an important universal benefit.
Arlene Foster has also said the party remains opposed to any reform of the province’s notoriously strict abortion laws.
She said last year that she would not want abortion to be as freely available here as it is in England. "
All likely to do down well with the most recent demographic to make their voting presence felt: the educated young.
Osborne is doing his job, but watch him last night he wasn't gloating or happy at the result. He was gutted at times seeing his party and their performance.
Yes, to be fair to him, I noticed that.
He's still a Tory.
Yes, he was ashen faced at one point when we looked like underperforming the exit poll once the first Swindon result came in.
Osborne is doing his job, but watch him last night he wasn't gloating or happy at the result. He was gutted at times seeing his party and their performance.
Yes, to be fair to him, I noticed that.
He's still a Tory.
Yes, was definitely upset about the loss of Gummer in Ipswich.
Look how similar the numbers are to 2010. Then it was Gordo who was thought mad for wanting to stay on with only 8 seats less than Corbyn while Cameron was thought to be entitled the keys to No10 w a dozen fewer seats than May has now!
No, it's about the numbers. There was no realistic combination of parties to get Gordon Brown to 326 seats from second place. There is to get May (and then a successor) there from first place.
Theresa May held a de facto referendum on herself. She lost it.
Osborne is doing his job, but watch him last night he wasn't gloating or happy at the result. He was gutted at times seeing his party and their performance.
Yes, to be fair to him, I noticed that.
He's still a Tory.
A decade's work pissed away in a few weeks. He must be heartbroken, as must DC.
Someone should put him in a box and drop him off Beachy Head. He is a self serving f*ckwit.
If only Mrs May hadn't been so gratuitously rude to Osborne when she sacked she wouldn't be in this mess.
She should have taken her own advice.
So tit for tattishly sniping at party and country is OK then, is it?
To understand GO's worth as a politician you just need to remember two words, "pasty" and "tax".
Whatever his merits or demerits as a politician, right now he's a newspaper editor - merely expressing pithily and publicly what a number of posters here are saying.
To expect him to pull punches for old times sake is just silly.
May is so weak, all the big beasts are going to say she can stay in place but she has to dance to their tune now.
It is so easy to criticise the person in the job, but contrast with coalition Corbyn would have to build. Even within his own party most MPs disagree with him. If he was trying to form a government it might be more chaotic than what we have
Although to be fair the whole thing is a mess. How on earth are we in the position where Gerry Adams is Kingmaker of UK parliament?!
The Tory party has had a lengthy period of lunacy dancing to the tune of its headbangers on an economically illiterate hard brexit.
They can be glad they have held on and can now fashion a soft/ EEA/ single market style deal IF they get a leader who stands up to rather than panders to it own version of militant - the wing exemplified by IDS. It is not credible for a party that likes to present itself as economically sound to have danced around such a dangerous notion for so long.
This election could have saved the Tories bacon long term. May has to go quickly because the stench of death will get very bad around the third day post-mortem.
A friend of a friend works at the Standard. They like him. A good boss. Surprisingly human and approachable. Has energised the place.
I know people at the Treasury who also liked him a lot. He's calculating, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. People like that don't automatically take the side of the most important person in the room. If you satisfy him that your idea is in his interests, he's all ears, and that's good. Contrast May - for her, you're one of the inner circle, or you're an enemy to be dealt with.
He's also, apparently, likable and not that much like his public persona in conversation.
For those saying working with the DUP is simple and straightforward and uncontroversial I say this:
What the fuck are you smoking?
The DUP are not the UUP. The DUP are extremist - relying on them for crucial votes is going to taint the Tories. The concept of Unionsim will get tainted by anti-gay bigotry, flat earthsim etc.
Working with the DUP is simple. They'll sell you their votes. They have no intention of trying to impose their social views on the rest of the UK.
Yes, and unlike the SNP they're not trying to destroy the UK.
Osborne is doing his job, but watch him last night he wasn't gloating or happy at the result. He was gutted at times seeing his party and their performance.
Yes, to be fair to him, I noticed that.
He's still a Tory.
Yes, was definitely upset about the loss of Gummer in Ipswich.
Interesting feature from Scotland. Most of the SNP seats that went blue last night were former SLAB seats. People expected UKIP to be gateway drug that got people to switch from LAB to CON, but it was actually the SNP!
That is not entire true, WAK, Gordon and BRS use to be LD Moray, Banff and Buchan and Angus were all former CON seats. Stirling, East Renf., Aberdeen S, Dumfries and Ayr have all had CON MPs in the not too distant past although they were Labour before SNP
The more I look at the results, it is blindingly obvious it is thanks to Ruth Davidson that Jeremy Corbyn isn't Prime Minister today.
Have you not noticed my new avatar this morning. She's a complete heroine for the blues and the nation as a whole. As I randomly posited earlier could she be a deputy pm or something in a national role. She also recouped all my losses on the Tory maj this time I got out after crossover. With Brexit I went to bed and hoped it was all going to be OK. A lesson learned!
If it wasn't for the fact the alternative was Corbyn, I'd recommend throwing in the towel now and letting a Labour minority try and sort this out.
But, seeing as Corbyn represents a clear and present danger to the UK, anything or anyone that keeps him out of office is doing a national service.
Every day she stays in situ makes Corbyn PM more likely.
Realistically is there any way that isn't going to happen now? The Tories aren't going to be able to get their shit together between now and the next election surely?
How did Corbyn win? He got fewer seats, fewer votes and will not be forming the Government. Not to take anything away from his performance but he certainly didn't win anything under any of the three main metrics by which an election is normally judged.
He won the argument within Labour, and got centrists to vote for the Loony Left.
The centre was trashed, Brokenwheel. Where were voters like me supposed to go - to the Party that took us out of Europe and is dominated by its europhobic and right wing elements?
Great to have you back Peter someone with sense and offering more balance to PB.
Sympathies to Aaron and thanks for his as always good-natured and level-headed analysis.
As I said on the last thread, I think that from a purely partisan Labour viewpoint, it's absolutely great to have May stumble on for a while with help from Northern Irish extremists (something which makes the stuff about Corbyn hobnobbing with Sinn Fein 40 years ago look distinctly dated).
But in the national interest? Not so much. It really will not last.
Spot on, Nick.
And if TM really is going to rely on DUP votes to shore up her administration it will at least have the small blessing that we will hear less for a while of the Labour Leadership's distant relationship with other questionable groupings.
May is so weak, all the big beasts are going to say she can stay in place but she has to dance to their tune now.
May is in for a shock if she thinks she's still the one dictating terms.
Is there going to be a reshuffle? That should be fun.
Can she seriously draw up a list of weak links around the Cabinet table, people who let her and the Party down, without putting "T May" right at the top of that list?
Seems to me that, assuming she has a reshuffle, it will probably be modest. And that, in itself, is indicative of her hugely diminished status.
I think May (or whoever leads the Tories) will be able to get Brexit related legislation through the HoC because voting them down simply isn't a viable alternative.
The anti-Brexit majority in parliament is strengthened. They just have to pick the right issue and the right moment.
I think the cut in police numbers didn't help the tories with the terrorist attacks in manchester/london.
I was messaging with some friends today about the police cuts issue. It wasn't specifically about terrorism or surveillance issues, but it was about rising crime, especially in urban places. People can feel that crime has been rising, theft, minor crimes and violent crimes have all been rising over the last year. Jez was able to link this to the cut in police numbers (probably correctly) and used the terrorism stuff as a way of bringing a weak area for May into focus.
We, the party of law and order, got beaten by a pacifist commie on crime. Think about that for a minute.
No, she deserves everything she gets today. Led a disastrous campaign and now is killing the party by refusing to go
Has Lnyton Crosby fought his last UK election campaign?
Lynton (and Messina) are only as good as the product they are selling. And Theresa May's "product" was really crap... I mean, really, really, really crap...
She must be brilliant to engineer a situation that could bring about the softest of brexit deals, see off ukip and still be in her job. Not sure how she managed it and nearly overshot but well done Theresa!
No, she deserves everything she gets today. Led a disastrous campaign and now is killing the party by refusing to go
Has Lnyton Crosby fought his last UK election campaign?
When is Nick Timothy resigning?
AIUI it was Lynton who took over and shored up the campaign in the last week or so. He refocused them on core subjects and steered away from social care and other rubbish policies. He may have e saved us from PM Corbyn.
Comments
I don't really feel sorry for the electorate at all, they have completely unrealistic expectations. The guy that fucked up was Cameron in failing to make any preperations for a leave vote last year, we are all just cleaning up the mess from that.
Coalition of Chaos = 315 exc. SF
....* are indeed our friends and allies.
*Insert Saudis, Trump, Duerte, LePen, Erdogan depending on circumstance.
There will be fights over the specifics, but nothing that derails talks. Also, I'd expect the final "deal" to pass, because the alternative will be no deal.
It is, frankly, delusional.
Only the time it would take to photoshop on a dress is preventing the 'Downfall' parodies appearing this evening.
She should have taken her own advice.
Just imagine if he was still inside the tent pissing out.
Theresa was a fool to sack him.
As I said on the last thread, I think that from a purely partisan Labour viewpoint, it's absolutely great to have May stumble on for a while with help from Northern Irish extremists (something which makes the stuff about Corbyn hobnobbing with Sinn Fein 40 years ago look distinctly dated).
But in the national interest? Not so much. It really will not last.
As for May in Downing Street, the woman is totally deluded.
Cameron would have wanted to try with Clegg's 8 remaining LDs, but their appetite for coalition or S&C would have been shot, and he might have had to dance with the DUP as well.
In which case, the EU referendum would still have happened.
Could Osborne set out a positive direction for the Tories to follow? Could Osborne strategise a winning position? He has the talent for both, I am sure.
But could Osborne lead his party, and face the electorate? I think he needs plenty of years out of the game, to undergo some kind of Michael Portillo/Ed Balls style detox and public reappraisal, before he is able to do that. Time's on his side if he wanted to (and he would benefit from Brexit being done and dusted before he stepped into the political limelight again anyway, since he'd have difficulty attracting Leave voters if the issue was still live). At the moment, a lot of people hate his guts. I don't know a single Tory politician who generates so much visceral detest among potential swing voters I know, and I think there's something in what tim (late of this parish) said about the 2010 election - had Cameron dumped Osborne and Letwin well before the lead-up to that, he may well have won a majority first time round.
Would also help with detox if Osborne "went on a journey" - but he seems far too smug for that.
https://twitter.com/SiobhanFenton/status/873150282074554369
The document also reveals splits with the Tories over pensions and winter fuels payments. The DUP pledges to maintain the pension triple lock, while the Tories jettisoned the 2.5 per cent rise safeguard.
Their manifesto also says they are committed to winter fuel payments and they pledge to “resist any assault” on what it sees as an important universal benefit.
Arlene Foster has also said the party remains opposed to any reform of the province’s notoriously strict abortion laws.
She said last year that she would not want abortion to be as freely available here as it is in England. "
UKIP smashed to smitherooons
Massive swathes of Scotland turn blue
Labour's allies in NI the SDLP wiped out
Prospect of NI MPs joining the government, making it, along with the new Scots Tories, a truly UK administration.
He's still a Tory.
A friend of a friend works at the Standard. They like him. A good boss. Surprisingly human and approachable. Has energised the place.
Every week attached to the DUP is a disaster. The Opposition will clamp you to all their "interesting" views like barnacles. Toxic doesn't come close.
"We will not be held to ransom by the DUP" is a better feel that dancing with the devil. The cartoon of May on an Orangeman's top pocket is as powerful as Miliband as Sturgeon's puppet.
That's not to say May and the DUP could have done so with 317. I suspect she'd have had no choice but to act as a caretaker for a few weeks and hand over to a successor, with a certain second election in the Autumn.
So May owes Davidson her political life (albeit it's now barely a life). But Corbyn wouldn't be visiting the Queen today - I can't see the mechanics for that in the counterfactual.
To understand GO's worth as a politician you just need to remember two words, "pasty" and "tax".
May is so weak, all the big beasts are going to say she can stay in place but she has to dance to their tune now.
I think we just seen what he was talking about with the GE yesterday.
Mr. Jonathan, it's been said here that Osborne's actually rather likeable in person.
I've never gotten the horrendous vibe from him I have from others, personally.
F1: shortly there shall be a Canadian Grand Prix. It is vital for the interests of betting that I provide strong and stable tips. I shall therefore be writing snap articles about the forthcoming race, in the national interest.
[NB Nick Timothy is not involved at any stage].
Much as it pain's me to say it, in this Osborne is right - Theresa seems to be completely and utterly mad!
Pasty tax never cost the Tories a majority, dementia tax did.
To expect him to pull punches for old times sake is just silly.
Although to be fair the whole thing is a mess. How on earth are we in the position where Gerry Adams is Kingmaker of UK parliament?!
They can be glad they have held on and can now fashion a soft/ EEA/ single market style deal
IF they get a leader who stands up to rather than panders to it own version of militant - the wing exemplified by IDS. It is not credible for a party that likes to present itself as economically sound to have danced around such a dangerous notion for so long.
This election could have saved the Tories bacon long term. May has to go quickly because the stench of death will get very bad around the third day post-mortem.
He's also, apparently, likable and not that much like his public persona in conversation.
Stirling, East Renf., Aberdeen S, Dumfries and Ayr have all had CON MPs in the not too distant past although they were Labour before SNP
When is Nick Timothy resigning?
And if TM really is going to rely on DUP votes to shore up her administration it will at least have the small blessing that we will hear less for a while of the Labour Leadership's distant relationship with other questionable groupings.
Seems to me that, assuming she has a reshuffle, it will probably be modest. And that, in itself, is indicative of her hugely diminished status.
Lab +9.4%
Con +10.8%
Yorks Party +2.5%
LD -1.4%
Ind +0.8%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001009
Seriously 'though, this won't help the NI peace process.
We, the party of law and order, got beaten by a pacifist commie on crime. Think about that for a minute.
If they were to vote down a Tory QS they would be putting Corbyn into No.10 for two weeks while he tries and fails to get his own QS passed.
Would they do that? I have my doubts.