Do we think Corbyn probably maximised his vote at this election? (Overall, not Islington).
No!
If May won't resign Jezza could win a landslide when the Tories are next dragged kicking and screaming to the polls.
The problem Corbyn has is that just getting out the kids was not enough to get him to this point. He needed to have the Tory balls up with regard to social care to persuade older voters not to turn out as well. If (and I accept it is a big if) the Tories can actually run a campaign next time that does not alienate their core vote so much then Corbyn is going to find this really was peak momentum.
Agreed Richard
Next time we need to put forward a proper positive manifesto rather than the negative rubbish we had this time which alienated much of our core vote!
Look how similar the numbers are to 2010. Then it was Gordo who was thought mad for wanting to stay on with only 8 seats less than Corbyn while Cameron was thought to be entitled the keys to No10 w a dozen fewer seats than May has now!
No, it's about the numbers. There was no realistic combination of parties to get Gordon Brown to 326 seats from second place. There is to get May (and then a successor) there from first place.
Theresa May held a de facto referendum on herself. She lost it.
If it wasn't for the fact the alternative was Corbyn, I'd recommend throwing in the towel now and letting a Labour minority try and sort this out.
But, seeing as Corbyn represents a clear and present danger to the UK, anything or anyone that keeps him out of office is doing a national service.
Indeed.
I am happy with the current outcome, but I do not think it will last 6 months. Having said that, the Labour minority govt in the 70s (Lib/Lab Pact etc) did manage 5 years although they remain as a truly dreadful and depressing time in my recollection.
she just needs to get brexit agreed so labour don't scupper it and then make way for a better leader to go to the country in 2022. if labour get their hands on power the country will go bankrupt and we will never get out of the EU
I rarely disagree with Lord JohnO of Hersham but here I do.
The PM should have done a Cameron. Announce her intention to go as soon as a new leader could be elected. Draw a line under the shamble and take the initiative. Instead the Conservative are limping along with a dead weight leader who has attached herself to the toxic DUP like an anchor around a drowning man. The Prime Minister is little short of a walking talking laughing stock.
Do the Conservatives really believe clinging to a life line with the DUP will delight the type of voter they aim to attract. May has allowed personal survival and short term expediency to override the interests of the nation and her party.
Theresa May called the general election for party gain. It was a shabby decision and she has been found out. She diminishes her office and herself further by staying a nano second longer than she must.
Whilst I don't disagree on the main sentiment, changing leader won't alter the fact that we're dependent on the DUP.
It will be only be a matter of days when the DUP politicians start to grate as much with the English as the SNP politicians do, especially with their specific accent. Perhaps unfair but true I think
Ironically, I think this result is good for the country. Hard Brexit looks as though it is off the table. So is IndyRef2. Put it bluntly, the result tells you that people are sick and tired of these sort of questions, and just want to get on with their lives. Life is tough for many people. That attitude makes it easier for us and the EU to reach a deal, especially as I would also imagine the EU is less concerned now about the risk from other states leaving, given the example of UK politics over the past 18 months.
The two major parties were both taught a lesson last night. The Conservatives cannot take people for granted just because they assume that there was no other alternative with JC leading the Labour party. But it is easy to forget the Labour party has, in some ways, also been fired a warning shot. While it didn't lose many of the seats it had expected to do in WWC areas, it saw big swings to the Conservatives and it is clear that a large chunk of their traditional base has gone. No longer can they push the immigration / diversity agenda without a backlash from their base.
Longer-term, I would be happier in the Conservatives' position. They have gained a major foothold in Scotland. They are making progress in overcoming the historical legacy in WWC areas. And the reason they did badly is essentially Theresa May. Cameron (and I don't like him) would have walked that election, as would Gove, Boris or David Davis, simply for the fact that they would have treated voters with a modicum of respect. No one likes to be taken for granted and that is what TM did in not turning up to the debates and not putting forward a positive agenda. But I also think the Conservatives were unlucky with the terror attacks. It meant a very stop and start campaign and that enthusiasm never really built up nor could the Labour manifesto be taken apart.
For Labour, JC should be congratulated for what he did. But there are clear issues here. Ironically, the good performance makes the likelihood of party tensions and splits more likely as many of JC's opponents are still there in Parliament. It also means he will have to answer the question of what to do about Brexit and the seat distribution means that Labour still has to balance the socially / liberal conservative factions.
A good thread Alastair. I lost a fair bit on last night's result - in my defence I left my initial positions unchanged after I had been selected for Don Valley as I simply hadn't the time to follow the national campaign. On which note...
The afternoon after the night before isn't the best time to pronounce one's verdict - though that is of course what our system demands of our media and elected politicians. Since I am neither, I will demur a little. The exit poll came as a surprise but I had rationalised how it must have happened even before I set off for my count.
Here in Don Valley I found a lot of swing from the Labour areas, just as reported from canvassers from both sides throughout the campaign. I was unsurprised to get a chunky swing in my favour (4.8%) but it's clear we never had the whole picture. Judging by other results (see e.g. Rother Valley), I'm not certain that the absence of a UKIP candidate helped - though the endorsement of their specific candidate from 2015 was useful.
As a party we now have to reflect on the result and yet act responsibly in the national interest. I respect the increased vote for Labour, and I am particularly glad to see the increase in youth turnout even though it clearly didn't help me. But I am determined that we should never allow Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister as I truly believe that would be a stain on our nation's history. Quite how long this Parliament will last remains to be seen.
On a personal note, many thanks for all the messages of support (and donations!) on here, including many from across the partisan divide. This site remains by far the best one on the internet for genuine cross-party dialogue, and huge thanks to OGH, rcs1000 and TSE (amongst others) for that.
If it wasn't for the fact the alternative was Corbyn, I'd recommend throwing in the towel now and letting a Labour minority try and sort this out.
But, seeing as Corbyn represents a clear and present danger to the UK, anything or anyone that keeps him out of office is doing a national service.
Every day she stays in situ makes Corbyn PM more likely.
Realistically is there any way that isn't going to happen now? The Tories aren't going to be able to get their shit together between now and the next election surely?
How did Corbyn win? He got fewer seats, fewer votes and will not be forming the Government. Not to take anything away from his performance but he certainly didn't win anything under any of the three main metrics by which an election is normally judged.
He won the argument within Labour, and got centrists to vote for the Loony Left.
Do we think Corbyn probably maximised his vote at this election? (Overall, not Islington).
Who knows. I literally have no idea how on earth he got 40% of the vote.
My only theory is that the message from Labour candidates that there was no chance he would be PM, so you can vote for me and still have a decent, hard working Labour MP, must have worked in spades.
No. Voters liked him and his policies. Simple as that.
People on here would be well served to stop contorting simple realities to fit their evidently bogus political preconceptions. It's more profitable to acknowledge what is starting you in the face.
The same applies in reverse to the Tories, 2 party politics means big swings and seat gains in either direction but as long as that 44% stays blue so Corbyn cannot win
That 44% ain't staying blue. There's nothing like a humiliating loss of authority to deter supporters.. They will simply melt away once they see the empress has no clothes. It's no tautology to state that people back winners.
She needs to go. For sure. But I think she should not do it immediately. The Tories will need a bit of time to prepare. And seek out engaging candidates. I think JohnO is right. In a few weeks.
I rarely disagree with Lord JohnO of Hersham but here I do.
The PM should have done a Cameron. Announce her intention to go as soon as a new leader could be elected. Draw a line under the shamble and take the initiative. Instead the Conservative are limping along with a dead weight leader who has attached herself to the toxic DUP like an anchor around a drowning man. The Prime Minister is little short of a walking talking laughing stock.
Do the Conservatives really believe clinging to a life line with the DUP will delight the type of voter they aim to attract. May has allowed personal survival and short term expediency to override the interests of the nation and her party.
Theresa May called the general election for party gain. It was a shabby decision and she has been found out. She diminishes her office and herself further by staying a nano second longer than she must.
Agree. Earlier I was of the opinion that she might usefully limp on a while. But that speech tells me she is moron. Get rid.
For those saying working with the DUP is simple and straightforward and uncontroversial I say this:
What the fuck are you smoking?
The DUP are not the UUP. The DUP are extremist - relying on them for crucial votes is going to taint the Tories. The concept of Unionsim will get tainted by anti-gay bigotry, flat earthsim etc.
Look how similar the numbers are to 2010. Then it was Gordo who was thought mad for wanting to stay on with only 8 seats less than Corbyn while Cameron was thought to be entitled the keys to No10 w a dozen fewer seats than May has now!
No, it's about the numbers. There was no realistic combination of parties to get Gordon Brown to 326 seats from second place. There is to get May (and then a successor) there from first place.
Yes that's what I am saying. Corbyn is Brown, yet May is not considered to be in as good a position as Cam. The mo is against her but was with Cam
Do we think Corbyn probably maximised his vote at this election? (Overall, not Islington).
I don't know. I never thought that him polling this many was possible, so how could I possibly trust my judgement as to whether this is his ceiling, or there are more voters he could convince?
For those saying working with the DUP is simple and straightforward and uncontroversial I say this:
What the fuck are you smoking?
The DUP are not the UUP. The DUP are extremist - relying on them for crucial votes is going to taint the Tories. The concept of Unionsim will get tainted by anti-gay bigotry, flat earthsim etc.
Yeah but links with extremism didn't stop Corbyn though did it?
Ironically, I think this result is good for the country. Hard Brexit looks as though it is off the table. So is IndyRef2. Put it bluntly, the result tells you that people are sick and tired of these sort of questions, and just want to get on with their lives. Life is tough for many people. That attitude makes it easier for us and the EU to reach a deal, especially as I would also imagine the EU is less concerned now about the risk from other states leaving, given the example of UK politics over the past 18 months.
The two major parties were both taught a lesson last night. The Conservatives cannot take people for granted just because they assume that there was no other alternative with JC leading the Labour party. But it is easy to forget the Labour party has, in some ways, also been fired a warning shot. While it didn't lose many of the seats it had expected to do in WWC areas, it saw big swings to the Conservatives and it is clear that a large chunk of their traditional base has gone. No longer can they push the immigration / diversity agenda without a backlash from their base.
Longer-term, I would be happier in the Conservatives' position. They have gained a major foothold in Scotland. They are making progress in overcoming the historical legacy in WWC areas. And the reason they did badly is essentially Theresa May. Cameron (and I don't like him) would have walked that election, as would Gove, Boris or David Davis, simply for the fact that they would have treated voters with a modicum of respect. No one likes to be taken for granted and that is what TM did in not turning up to the debates and not putting forward a positive agenda. But I also think the Conservatives were unlucky with the terror attacks. It meant a very stop and start campaign and that enthusiasm never really built up nor could the Labour manifesto be taken apart.
For Labour, JC should be congratulated for what he did. But there are clear issues here. Ironically, the good performance makes the likelihood of party tensions and splits more likely as many of JC's opponents are still there in Parliament. It also means he will have to answer the question of what to do about Brexit and the seat distribution means that Labour still has to balance the socially / liberal conservative factions.
I wonder if that clever man at Number cruncher politics or anybody else will do a good analysis on the effect of the UKIP not standing in a seat?
The UKIP vote was down to its party loyalists everywhere it stood, but when it did not stand did its votes mostly go Blue or Red?
This might be relevant , if there is another GE in October or whenever, then I suspect there will be a lot more seats where UKIP will struggle to find somebody prepared to pay a £500 deposit.
@AgnesCPoirier: May in front of Downing Street : Business as usual. Nothing has happened in May land it seems. Not a word for angry voters. Wow
I didn't see her constituency speech but in this speech she failed to thank all those who fought for her on the hustings the last couple of months and even more seriously those who did come out and vote for Conservative candidates yesterday.
The Conservative Party will be unable to move forward with Theresa as leader. Who the heck could lead ? Someone not holding cabinet office or new to parliament during Cameron and probably May as well.
Wouldn't be my choice but I get the impression Rory Stewart ticks boxes with a lot of voters - I would prefer Julian from Skipton myself.
AND we must never ever run another campaign based upon one person.
I suspect that had a lot to do with the result - Brits do f like self-aggrandisement
If it wasn't for the fact the alternative was Corbyn, I'd recommend throwing in the towel now and letting a Labour minority try and sort this out.
But, seeing as Corbyn represents a clear and present danger to the UK, anything or anyone that keeps him out of office is doing a national service.
Indeed.
I am happy with the current outcome, but I do not think it will last 6 months. Having said that, the Labour minority govt in the 70s (Lib/Lab Pact etc) did manage 5 years although they remain as a truly dreadful and depressing time in my recollection.
she just needs to get brexit agreed so labour don't scupper it and then make way for a better leader to go to the country in 2022. if labour get their hands on power the country will go bankrupt and we will never get out of the EU
That's how I see it. Get Brexit 'done' and the other side of 2019 stand down for a new leader ahead of 2021/22.
If it wasn't for the fact the alternative was Corbyn, I'd recommend throwing in the towel now and letting a Labour minority try and sort this out.
But, seeing as Corbyn represents a clear and present danger to the UK, anything or anyone that keeps him out of office is doing a national service.
Every day she stays in situ makes Corbyn PM more likely.
Realistically is there any way that isn't going to happen now? The Tories aren't going to be able to get their shit together between now and the next election surely?
How did Corbyn win? He got fewer seats, fewer votes and will not be forming the Government. Not to take anything away from his performance but he certainly didn't win anything under any of the three main metrics by which an election is normally judged.
He won the argument within Labour, and got centrists to vote for the Loony Left.
Do we think Corbyn probably maximised his vote at this election? (Overall, not Islington).
I don't know. I never thought that him polling this many was possible, so how could I possibly trust my judgement as to whether this is his ceiling, or there are more voters he could convince?
The unionists in Scotland may come back to Lab once Indy2 is dead......
and if anything detoxifies him this election result will, so he can push the vote with the oldies...there is a long way for Jezza to go....
For those saying working with the DUP is simple and straightforward and uncontroversial I say this:
What the fuck are you smoking?
The DUP are not the UUP. The DUP are extremist - relying on them for crucial votes is going to taint the Tories. The concept of Unionsim will get tainted by anti-gay bigotry, flat earthsim etc.
Working with the DUP is simple. They'll sell you their votes. They have no intention of trying to impose their social views on the rest of the UK.
If it wasn't for the fact the alternative was Corbyn, I'd recommend throwing in the towel now and letting a Labour minority try and sort this out.
But, seeing as Corbyn represents a clear and present danger to the UK, anything or anyone that keeps him out of office is doing a national service.
Indeed.
I am happy with the current outcome, but I do not think it will last 6 months. Having said that, the Labour minority govt in the 70s (Lib/Lab Pact etc) did manage 5 years although they remain as a truly dreadful and depressing time in my recollection.
she just needs to get brexit agreed so labour don't scupper it and then make way for a better leader to go to the country in 2022. if labour get their hands on power the country will go bankrupt and we will never get out of the EU
The bankrupt bit would annoy me, but as a die-hard Remainer....
As the day goes on I feel very sorry for May. What a truly impossible position she is now in.
You what?!
She had a majority, she had a mandate, she had a job to do. The country didn't need an election. It didn't want it. She called it for Party purposes. She thought she saw an opportunity to exploit Opposition weaknesses and enhance her own and her Party's position. The needs of the country were regarded as secondary, at best.
You want to feel sorry for anybody? Feel sorry for the electorate that has been pissed about again by a Government and MPs who put themselves first, and everything else a long way behind.
A good thread Alastair. I lost a fair bit on last night's result - in my defence I left my initial positions unchanged after I had been selected for Don Valley as I simply hadn't the time to follow the national campaign. On which note...
The afternoon after the night before isn't the best time to pronounce one's verdict - though that is of course what our system demands of our media and elected politicians. Since I am neither, I will demur a little. The exit poll came as a surprise but I had rationalised how it must have happened even before I set off for my count.
Here in Don Valley I found a lot of swing from the Labour areas, just as reported from canvassers from both sides throughout the campaign. I was unsurprised to get a chunky swing in my favour (4.8%) but it's clear we never had the whole picture. Judging by other results (see e.g. Rother Valley), I'm not certain that the absence of a UKIP candidate helped - though the endorsement of their specific candidate from 2015 was useful.
As a party we now have to reflect on the result and yet act responsibly in the national interest. I respect the increased vote for Labour, and I am particularly glad to see the increase in youth turnout even though it clearly didn't help me. But I am determined that we should never allow Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister as I truly believe that would be a stain on our nation's history. Quite how long this Parliament will last remains to be seen.
On a personal note, many thanks for all the messages of support (and donations!) on here, including many from across the partisan divide. This site remains by far the best one on the internet for genuine cross-party dialogue, and huge thanks to OGH, rcs1000 and TSE (amongst others) for that.
Best wishes to all!
Aaron / TP
Well done Sir, a great effort if unfortunately a little short of victory. Hope you stand again, you never know we might have to do it all over again in the autumn.
Did not see May's speech so can't comment on it but I do feel sorry for her in some respects. She must be desperately tired, desperately disappointed and probably struggling a bit with her diabetes. As a Tory I am furious with her because of the cack-handed campaign.
However, I don't see her any real alternative to her soldiering on for now. There is no public desire for another GE and the only viable government is a Tory led one. She got nearly 44% of the vote and any other Tory leader would face the issue she had regarding not having a personal mandate. In addition, all the Brexit prep work has been done by her and her team and given the imminence of the talks continuity is important.
A Tory minority government faces immense problems however its defeat at the next election is far from certain, especially if it learns the lessons from the GE. Despite his success Corbyn is loathed by many Labour MPs. Sooner or later that will resurface.
Finally, I admire May for being determined to see it through. The levels of criticism being levelled at her would hurt anybody and the temptation to chuck it in and retire quietly must be overwhelming.
Interesting feature from Scotland. Most of the SNP seats that went blue last night were former SLAB seats. People expected UKIP to be gateway drug that got people to switch from LAB to CON, but it was actually the SNP!
If it wasn't for the fact the alternative was Corbyn, I'd recommend throwing in the towel now and letting a Labour minority try and sort this out.
But, seeing as Corbyn represents a clear and present danger to the UK, anything or anyone that keeps him out of office is doing a national service.
Every day she stays in situ makes Corbyn PM more likely.
Realistically is there any way that isn't going to happen now? The Tories aren't going to be able to get their shit together between now and the next election surely?
How did Corbyn win? He got fewer seats, fewer votes and will not be forming the Government. Not to take anything away from his performance but he certainly didn't win anything under any of the three main metrics by which an election is normally judged.
He won the argument within Labour, and got centrists to vote for the Loony Left.
One important factor about May's survival that hasn't been mentioned. She got the support of many MPs for her leadership bid by giving specific undertaking that she would not go for an early election. She had one job - deliver Brexit. Don't fuck it up. Steady as she goes.
Now, you can break your word, hold an election and get a landslide. But that isn't popular with existing MPs, as their career hopes then get stuffed with more competition for Govt. posts. Or, you can hold an election and screw it up and lose your majority. And potentially screw up delivering Brexit.
She was fooked either way round the moment she called an election. So who the hell was advising her?
As the day goes on I feel very sorry for May. What a truly impossible position she is now in.
You what?!
She had a majority, she had a mandate, she had a job to do. The country didn't need an election. It didn't want it. She called it for Party purposes. She thought she saw an opportunity to exploit Opposition weaknesses and enhance her own and her Party's position. The needs of the country were regarded as secondary, at best.
You want to feel sorry for anybody? Feel sorry for the electorate that has been pissed about again by a Government and MPs who put themselves first, and everything else a long way behind.
In some places Labour did better than ever before, the Bournemouth seats for example.
They cannot be killed.
The LDs used to provide the main opposition to the Tories there, but it looks like their failure to get any momentum during the campaign left Labour as the only choice for anti-Tory voters even in unlikely places like Bournemouth.
Do we think Corbyn probably maximised his vote at this election? (Overall, not Islington).
Depends how bad May gets.
I'd be much more concerned about the return of anti-Tory tactical voting than absolute vote numbers.
And he/Labour has so much space to his right before he even reaches the centre, that he can easily suck votes from the Tory left (in the face of the alliance with the DUP and Brexit).
I think that if we have an election in the next year we will see massive anti Tory tactical voting, they know this and will try and struggle on with her at the helm. We will know more when we see the queens speech an it will show who is in control. But apart from 12 for lib dem and tipping e Devon what do I know, am in the Meeks can't see the wood for the trees camp. As an aside have you had the email from no10 ordering you to learn the words to "the Sash"
"How bad do you have to be to get scuppered by Jeremy Corbyn? You have to be very bad indeed – as bad as Theresa May, in fact. There was no need for her to call this general election, as she had a working majority with three years to run. She called it because she regarded Corbyn as utterly unelectable, which he probably is – unless the alternative is Theresa May. She claimed she called it because she “had the balls.” And now she has made a balls of it."
In the thinking conservative’s magazine of conservative thinking. Wow. Just - wow. How long can she last before the suits walk into her office with the bottle of whisky and the pearl-handled revolver?
For those saying working with the DUP is simple and straightforward and uncontroversial I say this:
What the fuck are you smoking?
The DUP are not the UUP. The DUP are extremist - relying on them for crucial votes is going to taint the Tories. The concept of Unionsim will get tainted by anti-gay bigotry, flat earthsim etc.
Working with the DUP is simple. They'll sell you their votes. They have no intention of trying to impose their social views on the rest of the UK.
^^^^ this.
Ulster will get some more of the pork barrels that Edinburgh has feasted on.
For those saying working with the DUP is simple and straightforward and uncontroversial I say this:
What the fuck are you smoking?
The DUP are not the UUP. The DUP are extremist - relying on them for crucial votes is going to taint the Tories. The concept of Unionsim will get tainted by anti-gay bigotry, flat earthsim etc.
Giant's Causeway signage will finally get corrected !
As the day goes on I feel very sorry for May. What a truly impossible position she is now in.
She's in a really difficult place, half a dozen seats short of a majority but clearly the winner in terms of seats and votes - yet everyone around her feels they've lost. She's got no choice but to keep calm and carry on, and hope she can get support from across her own party in the coming days.
"How bad do you have to be to get scuppered by Jeremy Corbyn? You have to be very bad indeed – as bad as Theresa May, in fact. There was no need for her to call this general election, as she had a working majority with three years to run. She called it because she regarded Corbyn as utterly unelectable, which he probably is – unless the alternative is Theresa May. She claimed she called it because she “had the balls.” And now she has made a balls of it."
In the thinking conservative’s magazine of conservative thinking. Wow. Just - wow. How long can she last before the suits walk into her office with the bottle of whisky and the pearl-handled revolver?
Screw this, I'm going to spend the weekend watching the F1 and playing hearthstone and overwatch..... much more fun and enjoyable than this train wreck I think.
In the spirit of trying to get to grips with the new dispensation, I would like to tell a little story. I arrived at work this morning, and my colleagues and I had a bit of a chinwag about a result that most of us didn't see coming. Then, in walks the Sage, who correctly predicted Brexit, and Trump, and suggested that Corbyn would become Prime Minister today - an outcome that was, in the final analysis, perhaps averted by only half-a-dozen Tory holds.
So, I asked the Sage what brilliant analysis had led him to make his prediction. The reply?
"No enthusiasm."
I spent weeks trying to work out the minutiae of this election and got it catastrophically wrong. He summed the entire situation up in two words. And it looks like that explains both why he was almost right, but why he didn't quite make it, either.
There was enthusiasm for Corbyn. There wasn't for May. And yet... there was enthusiasm for Ruth Davidson. And there's no enthusiasm at all, to put it mildly, amongst the new Ten Most Important Voters in the Nation - the DUP MPs - for Corbyn. And that's that.
This helps to crystallise a feeling I started to have last night, which I never spotted before because I never watch the news on TV: there's something about the phrase "the prime minister, Theresa May" which just sounds a little off. Just not as much as "the prime minister, Jeremy Corbyn" would.
For those saying working with the DUP is simple and straightforward and uncontroversial I say this:
What the fuck are you smoking?
The DUP are not the UUP. The DUP are extremist - relying on them for crucial votes is going to taint the Tories. The concept of Unionsim will get tainted by anti-gay bigotry, flat earthsim etc.
Giant's Causeway signage will finally get corrected !
Look how similar the numbers are to 2010. Then it was Gordo who was thought mad for wanting to stay on with only 8 seats less than Corbyn while Cameron was thought to be entitled the keys to No10 w a dozen fewer seats than May has now!
No, it's about the numbers. There was no realistic combination of parties to get Gordon Brown to 326 seats from second place. There is to get May (and then a successor) there from first place.
Yes that's what I am saying. Corbyn is Brown, yet May is not considered to be in as good a position as Cam. The mo is against her but was with Cam
Cameron (who I continue to say was a poor politician overall) did not call an unnecessary election and then give the impression of having made absolutely no preparation at all. He made plenty of mistakes but at least in 2010 arrogance and assuming he would win no matter what he did was not one of them.
People are not just attacking May as a matter of historical record because of what she has done (or failed to do) but because she has a crucial task ahead of her and people do not believe she is up to it. Once the public has lost faith in a politician it is almost impossible to get it back. The classic example is Major in 1992-97. No matter that the economy was doing well by the time the election came around. People lost faith him at the time of the ERM issue and he never got their trust back.
May should be toast. Whether she is or not is another matter.
Personally I think Priti should go for leader when the opportunity arises.
"The big betting lesson, once again, is that the probability distribution is flatter than your might think. No betting the farm on 'free money' like Con Maj at 1.25, and always try to mirror bets at both ends of the distribution (in this case, some bets on Labour compensated for on bets on the Tories).
"
Lots of models last night had seat predictions that were rated as 95% or 99% certainties going awry.
Beware Of The Tails.
I hardly ever bet short odds on. Given the uncertainties in any punter's estimate of the true odds of gamble, for a bet at 1.25 to make sense it must be all but INCONCEIVABLE that it will lose. How any serious punter could square an obviously abysmal campaign with an all but inconceivable loss is beyond my ken.
Thought: there is now, surely, a large majority of MPs in the Commons who favor Soft Brexit. If they caucus, they can deliver it. TMay will have to yield or she'll be paralyzed and forced into an election she will probably lose.
Soft Brexit is nailed on
It really isn't. Soft Brexit requires painful compromise and a strong government. Unless you think Labour and the Conservatives will form a coalition it cannot happen.
No it doesn't. Soft Brexit is the Norway model with maybe some meaningless fudge on free movement. Way way easier to negotiate, and to sell to the public. And that's what we are going to get. This Brexit will be so soft people will mistake it for a puppy and try and give it a biscuit.
As the day goes on I feel very sorry for May. What a truly impossible position she is now in.
I feel for her on a personal level - the rejection and lack of judgment must hurt like a bitch.
But on a business level, she made a huge miscalculation, wasn't a people person and she has paid a price for that.
All very true. She should walk away now though, not carry on in such a weakened state. She put a plan forward which did in some regards deal with the two biggest issues of our time: Brexit and the deficit. The fact is that it has been rejected and that is that.
I do keep thinking about her attempt to play politics with human rights laws after the terrorist attacks, and think maybe this isn't so bad.
Badly, Badly advised but the buck stops with her. If the article I read is correct she had the chance to kill off the social care policy in the manifesto as her advisers were completely split but she went with it.
Did not see May's speech so can't comment on it but I do feel sorry for her in some respects. She must be desperately tired, desperately disappointed and probably struggling a bit with her diabetes. As a Tory I am furious with her because of the cack-handed campaign.
However, I don't see her any real alternative to her soldiering on for now. There is no public desire for another GE and the only viable government is a Tory led one. She got nearly 44% of the vote and any other Tory leader would face the issue she had regarding not having a personal mandate. In addition, all the Brexit prep work has been done by her and her team and given the imminence of the talks continuity is important.
A Tory minority government faces immense problems however its defeat at the next election is far from certain, especially if it learns the lessons from the GE. Despite his success Corbyn is loathed by many Labour MPs. Sooner or later that will resurface.
Finally, I admire May for being determined to see it through. The levels of criticism being levelled at her would hurt anybody and the temptation to chuck it in and retire quietly must be overwhelming.
Screw this, I'm going to spend the weekend watching the F1 and playing hearthstone and overwatch..... much more fun and enjoyable than this train wreck I think.
Trains are much better to ride when they are NOT wrecked!
Just t his week I did the Newark North Gate curve, Lincoln to Barnetby, Hereford to Newport, and Chester to Holyhead.
As the day goes on I feel very sorry for May. What a truly impossible position she is now in.
You what?!
She had a majority, she had a mandate, she had a job to do. The country didn't need an election. It didn't want it. She called it for Party purposes. She thought she saw an opportunity to exploit Opposition weaknesses and enhance her own and her Party's position. The needs of the country were regarded as secondary, at best.
You want to feel sorry for anybody? Feel sorry for the electorate that has been pissed about again by a Government and MPs who put themselves first, and everything else a long way behind.
If I feel sorry for any politicians it is those who fought hard slightly over two years ago to be elected for a five year term and have now been shafted and lost their seats because of the bloody difficult woman who sacrificed their seats to Jeremy Corbyn.
I think May (or whoever leads the Tories) will be able to get Brexit related legislation through the HoC because voting them down simply isn't a viable alternative.
She was fooked either way round the moment she called an election. So who the hell was advising her?
What's funny is that for the past 7 years she's been sitting across the table from Cameron thinking, 'I could do better than that' and Nick Timothy has been sitting thinking ' I could do better at this strategy stuff than Osborne.
There is one Tory with the brains to create a new agenda, competence to rebuild respect for the party and the talent to lead the party back to popularity.
A good thread Alastair. I lost a fair bit on last night's result - in my defence I left my initial positions unchanged after I had been selected for Don Valley as I simply hadn't the time to follow the national campaign. On which note...
The afternoon after the night before isn't the best time to pronounce one's verdict - though that is of course what our system demands of our media and elected politicians. Since I am neither, I will demur a little. The exit poll came as a surprise but I had rationalised how it must have happened even before I set off for my count.
Here in Don Valley I found a lot of swing from the Labour areas, just as reported from canvassers from both sides throughout the campaign. I was unsurprised to get a chunky swing in my favour (4.8%) but it's clear we never had the whole picture. Judging by other results (see e.g. Rother Valley), I'm not certain that the absence of a UKIP candidate helped - though the endorsement of their specific candidate from 2015 was useful.
As a party we now have to reflect on the result and yet act responsibly in the national interest. I respect the increased vote for Labour, and I am particularly glad to see the increase in youth turnout even though it clearly didn't help me. But I am determined that we should never allow Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister as I truly believe that would be a stain on our nation's history. Quite how long this Parliament will last remains to be seen.
On a personal note, many thanks for all the messages of support (and donations!) on here, including many from across the partisan divide. This site remains by far the best one on the internet for genuine cross-party dialogue, and huge thanks to OGH, rcs1000 and TSE (amongst others) for that.
Best wishes to all!
Aaron / TP
Do stand again, you'd be ace (and I'm saying this as a Corbyn three-pounder and Labour voter, albeit a Brexit supporter too). And no matter how much gossip we press for, don't go spilling too many beans on here if it makes it less likely for you to get selected again!
During last night's results, I asked whether UKIP not standing, apparently in support of Brexit-supporting Tories, was actually benefitting the Tories at all - there are some Red Kippers who would never have voted for you, but whose vote might have been pulled away from your main opponent if UKIP had stood. More open-minded Brexiteers would have been pragmatic enough to vote Tory regardless of whether a no-hope Kipper stood. I would have voted for you out of personal respect - but more generically, in a constituency with a Tory Brexiteer with a real chance, and a Labourite I had down as lukewarm or Remainer, I'd have been likey gone Blue if the candidate was half-decent (whether UKIP were standing or not).
For those saying working with the DUP is simple and straightforward and uncontroversial I say this:
What the fuck are you smoking?
The DUP are not the UUP. The DUP are extremist - relying on them for crucial votes is going to taint the Tories. The concept of Unionsim will get tainted by anti-gay bigotry, flat earthsim etc.
Many sections of the Labour vote also have anti-gay bigotry.
I have no idea what Mrs May should do, my mind goes back and forth. But based on the public's seeming reaction to this GE being called, I am not sure another one will be looked upon favourably unless a party really cannot govern in effective terms. I am also not sure that a new leader would need to go to the country immediately, the public seem to respect our constitution more than some politicians do. They accept we have a Parliamentary system.
I think May (or whoever leads the Tories) will be able to get Brexit related legislation through the HoC because voting them down simply isn't a viable alternative.
It's not just Brexit though is it. I mean, May knew she could get that stuff through. It's all the other day to day things that she wanted to do that she wasn't able to (grammar schools, NI rise etc) that will get clogged up in the commons and the lords. And she's lost 12 Tory MPs and the goodwill of the party. Hopeless position to be in.
I think May (or whoever leads the Tories) will be able to get Brexit related legislation through the HoC because voting them down simply isn't a viable alternative.
Big ask. Anything that isn't single market friendly will be problematic.
For those saying working with the DUP is simple and straightforward and uncontroversial I say this:
What the fuck are you smoking?
The DUP are not the UUP. The DUP are extremist - relying on them for crucial votes is going to taint the Tories. The concept of Unionsim will get tainted by anti-gay bigotry, flat earthsim etc.
Many sections of the Labour vote also have anti-gay bigotry.
" Although the National Trust – which opened the £18.5 million centre on Tuesday – endorses the scientific view that the rocks are about 65 million years old, an audio exhibit in the centre informs visitors that some believe the earth is 6,000 years old "
Comments
Next time we need to put forward a proper positive manifesto rather than the negative rubbish we had this time which alienated much of our core vote!
I think there's a lot of unused talent on the backbenches.
The two major parties were both taught a lesson last night. The Conservatives cannot take people for granted just because they assume that there was no other alternative with JC leading the Labour party. But it is easy to forget the Labour party has, in some ways, also been fired a warning shot. While it didn't lose many of the seats it had expected to do in WWC areas, it saw big swings to the Conservatives and it is clear that a large chunk of their traditional base has gone. No longer can they push the immigration / diversity agenda without a backlash from their base.
Longer-term, I would be happier in the Conservatives' position. They have gained a major foothold in Scotland. They are making progress in overcoming the historical legacy in WWC areas. And the reason they did badly is essentially Theresa May. Cameron (and I don't like him) would have walked that election, as would Gove, Boris or David Davis, simply for the fact that they would have treated voters with a modicum of respect. No one likes to be taken for granted and that is what TM did in not turning up to the debates and not putting forward a positive agenda. But I also think the Conservatives were unlucky with the terror attacks. It meant a very stop and start campaign and that enthusiasm never really built up nor could the Labour manifesto be taken apart.
For Labour, JC should be congratulated for what he did. But there are clear issues here. Ironically, the good performance makes the likelihood of party tensions and splits more likely as many of JC's opponents are still there in Parliament. It also means he will have to answer the question of what to do about Brexit and the seat distribution means that Labour still has to balance the socially / liberal conservative factions.
anyway, now for lunch
Surely the chance of the next leader not being a Corbynite has to be much reduced now?
I've backed Clive Lewis in to 10.5 from 15 (small sums at each level).
What the fuck are you smoking?
The DUP are not the UUP. The DUP are extremist - relying on them for crucial votes is going to taint the Tories. The concept of Unionsim will get tainted by anti-gay bigotry, flat earthsim etc.
I hope it's a holding speech to give her time to consult with colleagues......
And I hope the man in the blue suit will know what to do if not....
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/872839226785660928
The UKIP vote was down to its party loyalists everywhere it stood, but when it did not stand did its votes mostly go Blue or Red?
This might be relevant , if there is another GE in October or whenever, then I suspect there will be a lot more seats where UKIP will struggle to find somebody prepared to pay a £500 deposit.
and if anything detoxifies him this election result will, so he can push the vote with the oldies...there is a long way for Jezza to go....
She had a majority, she had a mandate, she had a job to do. The country didn't need an election. It didn't want it. She called it for Party purposes. She thought she saw an opportunity to exploit Opposition weaknesses and enhance her own and her Party's position. The needs of the country were regarded as secondary, at best.
You want to feel sorry for anybody? Feel sorry for the electorate that has been pissed about again by a Government and MPs who put themselves first, and everything else a long way behind.
However, I don't see her any real alternative to her soldiering on for now. There is no public desire for another GE and the only viable government is a Tory led one. She got nearly 44% of the vote and any other Tory leader would face the issue she had regarding not having a personal mandate. In addition, all the Brexit prep work has been done by her and her team and given the imminence of the talks continuity is important.
A Tory minority government faces immense problems however its defeat at the next election is far from certain, especially if it learns the lessons from the GE. Despite his success Corbyn is loathed by many Labour MPs. Sooner or later that will resurface.
Finally, I admire May for being determined to see it through. The levels of criticism being levelled at her would hurt anybody and the temptation to chuck it in and retire quietly must be overwhelming.
Now, you can break your word, hold an election and get a landslide. But that isn't popular with existing MPs, as their career hopes then get stuffed with more competition for Govt. posts. Or, you can hold an election and screw it up and lose your majority. And potentially screw up delivering Brexit.
She was fooked either way round the moment she called an election. So who the hell was advising her?
Ulster will get some more of the pork barrels that Edinburgh has feasted on.
Any markets on a second election in 2017 yet?
People are not just attacking May as a matter of historical record because of what she has done (or failed to do) but because she has a crucial task ahead of her and people do not believe she is up to it. Once the public has lost faith in a politician it is almost impossible to get it back. The classic example is Major in 1992-97. No matter that the economy was doing well by the time the election came around. People lost faith him at the time of the ERM issue and he never got their trust back.
May should be toast. Whether she is or not is another matter.
Personally I think Priti should go for leader when the opportunity arises.
I do keep thinking about her attempt to play politics with human rights laws after the terrorist attacks, and think maybe this isn't so bad.
Just t his week I did the Newark North Gate curve, Lincoln to Barnetby, Hereford to Newport, and Chester to Holyhead.
#addiction
Chancellor?
https://twitter.com/JonnElledge/status/873159382464442368
He is editing the Evening Standard.
During last night's results, I asked whether UKIP not standing, apparently in support of Brexit-supporting Tories, was actually benefitting the Tories at all - there are some Red Kippers who would never have voted for you, but whose vote might have been pulled away from your main opponent if UKIP had stood. More open-minded Brexiteers would have been pragmatic enough to vote Tory regardless of whether a no-hope Kipper stood. I would have voted for you out of personal respect - but more generically, in a constituency with a Tory Brexiteer with a real chance, and a Labourite I had down as lukewarm or Remainer, I'd have been likey gone Blue if the candidate was half-decent (whether UKIP were standing or not).
http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/dup-man-joins-causeway-creationist-row-1-4032265
@gwilsondrums: Next time Sturgeon refers to the Tories having no place in Scotland.
https://twitter.com/yescotland/status/873097525766397954
Of course there were loyalist paramilitaries too.
10 seats swapped the other way and May has her majority and caries on.