Sympathies to Aaron and thanks for his as always good-natured and level-headed analysis.
As I said on the last thread, I think that from a purely partisan Labour viewpoint, it's absolutely great to have May stumble on for a while with help from Northern Irish extremists (something which makes the stuff about Corbyn hobnobbing with Sinn Fein 40 years ago look distinctly dated).
But in the national interest? Not so much. It really will not last.
May is so weak, all the big beasts are going to say she can stay in place but she has to dance to their tune now.
May is in for a shock if she thinks she's still the one dictating terms.
Is there going to be a reshuffle? That should be fun.
Can she seriously draw up a list of weak links around the Cabinet table, people who let her and the Party down, without putting "T May" right at the top of that list?
Seems to me that, assuming she has a reshuffle, it will probably be modest. And that, in itself, is indicative of her hugely diminished status.
+1. She has a few gaps to fill, that's about it. She is a woman who cannot afford any more enemies.
I think the cut in police numbers didn't help the tories with the terrorist attacks in manchester/london.
I was messaging with some friends today about the police cuts issue. It wasn't specifically about terrorism or surveillance issues, but it was about rising crime, especially in urban places. People can feel that crime has been rising, theft, minor crimes and violent crimes have all been rising over the last year. Jez was able to link this to the cut in police numbers (probably correctly) and used the terrorism stuff as a way of bringing a weak area for May into focus.
We, the party of law and order, got beaten by a pacifist commie on crime. Think about that for a minute.
A family member texted me late last night to say that where he worked, in the West Midlands, the day things changed was when May failed to turn up for the big TV debate. There was a noticeable change - plenty of people pissed off with her arrogance.
So, perhaps although Farron had a pretty poor campaign general, his line that night turned the result, at least a little:
"How dare Theresa May call a snap election and then not turn up for the debates."
I'm sure it's a consolation to that student who bet his life savings (£10k) on Jeremy Corbyn winning the election that everyone on his side is so happy today....
May is so weak, all the big beasts are going to say she can stay in place but she has to dance to their tune now.
May is in for a shock if she thinks she's still the one dictating terms.
Is there going to be a reshuffle? That should be fun.
Can she seriously draw up a list of weak links around the Cabinet table, people who let her and the Party down, without putting "T May" right at the top of that list?
Seems to me that, assuming she has a reshuffle, it will probably be modest. And that, in itself, is indicative of her hugely diminished status.
+1. She has a few gaps to fill, that's about it. She is a woman who cannot afford any more enemies.
Gummer will be a loss. He was doing a lot of serious work behind the scenes I gather.
Sympathies to Aaron and thanks for his as always good-natured and level-headed analysis.
As I said on the last thread, I think that from a purely partisan Labour viewpoint, it's absolutely great to have May stumble on for a while with help from Northern Irish extremists (something which makes the stuff about Corbyn hobnobbing with Sinn Fein 40 years ago look distinctly dated).
But in the national interest? Not so much. It really will not last.
May is so weak, all the big beasts are going to say she can stay in place but she has to dance to their tune now.
May is in for a shock if she thinks she's still the one dictating terms.
Is there going to be a reshuffle? That should be fun.
Can she seriously draw up a list of weak links around the Cabinet table, people who let her and the Party down, without putting "T May" right at the top of that list?
Seems to me that, assuming she has a reshuffle, it will probably be modest. And that, in itself, is indicative of her hugely diminished status.
+1. She has a few gaps to fill, that's about it. She is a woman who cannot afford any more enemies.
That's assuming that Boris, who was already eyeing up he leadership in his speech last night doesn't resign, and if he does, all bets are off.
It's possible the decision by UKIP not to contest half the seats cost the Tories an overall majority. Discuss.
Yes it was meant to help the Tories but I might have hindered them in the end. I'm sute that someone will crunch the numbers and tell us if that is the case.
So realistically (serious please no answers in femtoseconds) how long until May is challenged or steps down?
Her only chance of staying long term is to accept she's simply not driving the bus any more. But I don't believe that it's in her DNA. The removal vans will drawing up by late January.
Won't the new cabinet be imposed on May by the 1922? If she stays she's a puppet
...thinking about it, having the 22 tell you who your chancellor is and what he says is probably less humiliating than having the 22 make him unsay what you told him to say in his Budget...
I think the cut in police numbers didn't help the tories with the terrorist attacks in manchester/london.
I was messaging with some friends today about the police cuts issue. It wasn't specifically about terrorism or surveillance issues, but it was about rising crime, especially in urban places. People can feel that crime has been rising, theft, minor crimes and violent crimes have all been rising over the last year. Jez was able to link this to the cut in police numbers (probably correctly) and used the terrorism stuff as a way of bringing a weak area for May into focus.
We, the party of law and order, got beaten by a pacifist commie on crime. Think about that for a minute.
Great posts throughout the election from Mr Meeks and also Black_Rook, who wrote extensively about the return of two party politics. Absolutely fascinating.
But whilst the political analysis has been great, I come here to watch seant, post rubbish and get great betting tips and soft intel.
So, a big vote of thanks to whoever tipped Enfield North Labour Hold at 7/2.
Someone noted that the Bet365 odds were out of line, and posted here and I filled my boots.
Huge thanks to the poster who published the constituencies with the highest number of voters aged 16-24. Superb intel which helped me to get on Devonport Labour Gain at 13/2.
A massive vote of thanks to the late night poster (early Sunday morning I think) who was tipping Fleetwood and Lancaster Labour hold, bet placed at 9/2.
Someone's excellent local knowledge helped me get on Plaid in Ceredigion at 15/8.
Rochdale Pioneers knowledge in the north east, I think, (might be the wrong poster) led me to Hartlepool Labour hold at 9/4.
Thank you to the poster who wondered if Clegg might lose his seat. I can't count it as a tip - I was steaming drunk that night, thought it would be funny and placed a silly bet on Labour gain at 9/1. Amazing.
The close but no cigar award goes to the tipster who fancied Thurrock Labour Gain at 7/1. I filled my boots, lost, but it could have been massive.
The missed opportunity was a combination of David Herdson's Tuesday night mood and local intelligence I was getting from labour canvassers in Wakefield. Should've. Could've. Didn't.
So thank you from a mug punter to PB regulars, each and every one of you. The level of knowledge is phenomenal.
The problem is as a Remainer she probably recognises all these realities deep down. Its the Brexiteers that need to be forced to go to Brussels and come up with a negotiating strategy that achieves all they promised in the referendum.
A friend of a friend works at the Standard. They like him. A good boss. Surprisingly human and approachable. Has energised the place.
I know people at the Treasury who also liked him a lot. He's calculating, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. People like that don't automatically take the side of the most important person in the room. If you satisfy him that your idea is in his interests, he's all ears, and that's good. Contrast May - for her, you're one of the inner circle, or you're an enemy to be dealt with.
He's also, apparently, likable and not that much like his public persona in conversation.
Remember when Ed Balls lost his seat he said one of the first people to reach out was Osborne who sent a very kind message that he much appreciated, and even though they disagreed strongly on things would often stay up together late discussing economics over a drink or three.
Won't the new cabinet be imposed on May by the 1922? If she stays she's a puppet
...thinking about it, having the 22 tell you who your chancellor is and what he says is probably less humiliating than having the 22 make him unsay what you told him to say in his Budget...
Sympathies to Aaron and thanks for his as always good-natured and level-headed analysis.
As I said on the last thread, I think that from a purely partisan Labour viewpoint, it's absolutely great to have May stumble on for a while with help from Northern Irish extremists (something which makes the stuff about Corbyn hobnobbing with Sinn Fein 40 years ago look distinctly dated).
But in the national interest? Not so much. It really will not last.
Describing the DUP as extremists shows a lack of knowledge of last night's results in Northern Ireland. They have effectively become a single Unionist party, eliminating the UUs from Westminster elections, so represent Unionists across the board - not the extreme party of old IMO. They also support continued access to the single marker and will be determined (surely) to avoid hard brexit with the implications that would have for a hard border and a potential subsequent border poll. Also off the mark to equate them with Corbyn supporting the IRA in the 80s when the IRA were trying to murder colleagues of his in the HoP as well as civilian across Northern Ireland.
Great posts throughout the election from Mr Meeks and also Black_Rook, who wrote extensively about the return of two party politics. Absolutely fascinating.
But whilst the political analysis has been great, I come here to watch seant, post rubbish and get great betting tips and soft intel.
So, a big vote of thanks to whoever tipped Enfield North Labour Hold at 7/2.
Someone noted that the Bet365 odds were out of line, and posted here and I filled my boots.
Huge thanks to the poster who published the constituencies with the highest number of voters aged 16-24. Superb intel which helped me to get on Devonport Labour Gain at 13/2.
A massive vote of thanks to the late night poster (early Sunday morning I think) who was tipping Fleetwood and Lancaster Labour hold, bet placed at 9/2.
Someone's excellent local knowledge helped me get on Plaid in Ceredigion at 15/8.
Rochdale Pioneers knowledge in the north east, I think, (might be the wrong poster) led me to Hartlepool Labour hold at 9/4.
Thank you to the poster who wondered if Clegg might lose his seat. I can't count it as a tip - I was steaming drunk that night, thought it would be funny and placed a silly bet on Labour gain at 9/1. Amazing.
The close but no cigar award goes to the tipster who fancied Thurrock Labour Gain at 7/1. I filled my boots, lost, but it could have been massive.
The missed opportunity was a combination of David Herdson's Tuesday night mood and local intelligence I was getting from labour canvassers in Wakefield. Should've. Could've. Didn't.
So thank you from a mug punter to PB regulars, each and every one of you. The level of knowledge is phenomenal.
Fair play .... I'm sure OGH will put up the donate button for you to express £ thanks too in due course perhaps...
I rarely disagree with Lord JohnO of Hersham but here I do.
The PM should have done a Cameron. Announce her intention to go as soon as a new leader could be elected. Draw a line under the shamble and take the initiative. Instead the Conservative are limping along with a dead weight leader who has attached herself to the toxic DUP like an anchor around a drowning man. The Prime Minister is little short of a walking talking laughing stock.
Do the Conservatives really believe clinging to a life line with the DUP will delight the type of voter they aim to attract. May has allowed personal survival and short term expediency to override the interests of the nation and her party.
Theresa May called the general election for party gain. It was a shabby decision and she has been found out. She diminishes her office and herself further by staying a nano second longer than she must.
Whilst I don't disagree on the main sentiment, changing leader won't alter the fact that we're dependent on the DUP.
The answer is for May and the new leader not to attach themselves to the DUP and defy them to vote you down. Govern for the whole nation and not part of Ulster. Remember the government also has the card of no current government in Stormont.
Every week attached to the DUP is a disaster. The Opposition will clamp you to all their "interesting" views like barnacles. Toxic doesn't come close.
"We will not be held to ransom by the DUP" is a better feel that dancing with the devil. The cartoon of May on an Orangeman's top pocket is as powerful as Miliband as Sturgeon's puppet.
Except that, unlike Sturgeon, the DUP are NOT trying to destroy the Union!
Sympathies to Aaron and thanks for his as always good-natured and level-headed analysis.
As I said on the last thread, I think that from a purely partisan Labour viewpoint, it's absolutely great to have May stumble on for a while with help from Northern Irish extremists (something which makes the stuff about Corbyn hobnobbing with Sinn Fein 40 years ago look distinctly dated).
But in the national interest? Not so much. It really will not last.
Describing the DUP as extremists shows a lack of knowledge of last night's results in Northern Ireland. They have effectively become a single Unionist party, eliminating the UUs from Westminster elections, so represent Unionists across the board - not the extreme party of old IMO. They also support continued access to the single marker and will be determined (surely) to avoid hard brexit with the implications that would have for a hard border and a potential subsequent border poll. Also off the mark to equate them with Corbyn supporting the IRA in the 80s when the IRA were trying to murder colleagues of his in the HoP as well as civilian across Northern Ireland.
Illustration of the new divide in British politics: Canterbury was a spectacular gain for Labour and at the same time Gravesham and Dartford swung to the Tories.
No, she deserves everything she gets today. Led a disastrous campaign and now is killing the party by refusing to go
Has Lnyton Crosby fought his last UK election campaign?
Lynton (and Messina) are only as good as the product they are selling. And Theresa May's "product" was really crap... I mean, really, really, really crap...
I disagree in the sense that they were given the task of winning an election not (necessarily and only) selling May. It was their choice to make it Presidential... and presumably they'd met her.
There are things they could've done. Focused on the economy, or cast a light on Labour splits versus a united team for example. And May could've been told to do the debates (she was fine on Question TIme - not amazing, but fine) and take to the soapbox. But they chose the wrong strategy, and stuck to it despite evidence it was fatally flawed.
Do we get the 12th of July as a bank holiday now ?
Only if you're happy to march and learn a few "folk" songs !
Its basically a fitness friendly Burns night.
Indeed, there's a few ground rules though:
- You must wear an orange sash - Alcoholic drinks must be consumed out of cans - no wine allowed - You are free to urinate wherever you wish - When you pass a Catholic place of worship - please be respectful - Should you wish to fight a fellow marcher, please wait until after the march has finished !!
So realistically (serious please no answers in femtoseconds) how long until May is challenged or steps down?
Her only chance of staying long term is to accept she's simply not driving the bus any more. But I don't believe that it's in her DNA. The removal vans will drawing up by late January.
I've taken the 8/11 available from William Hill that she's gone by the end of the year.
I think the cut in police numbers didn't help the tories with the terrorist attacks in manchester/london.
I was messaging with some friends today about the police cuts issue. It wasn't specifically about terrorism or surveillance issues, but it was about rising crime, especially in urban places. People can feel that crime has been rising, theft, minor crimes and violent crimes have all been rising over the last year. Jez was able to link this to the cut in police numbers (probably correctly) and used the terrorism stuff as a way of bringing a weak area for May into focus.
We, the party of law and order, got beaten by a pacifist commie on crime. Think about that for a minute.
+1
You can debate the affordability, but "we will pay for more neighbourhood and armed police" is both a positive response and a specific action. All the Tories offered was empty slogans and knocking copy on Corbyn. It's that simple.
Think the Tories are still being tremendously complacent. Very flawed as May is, she still had very respectable personal approval ratings at the end of the campaign, almost as good as Cameron's ever were even at the peak of his premiership. The key to this campaign was the issues, with people deciding they rather liked the "left-wing" stance on a lot of issues - and that's not going to go away on its own, even if they change to a more media-friendly leader.
Sympathies to Aaron and thanks for his as always good-natured and level-headed analysis.
As I said on the last thread, I think that from a purely partisan Labour viewpoint, it's absolutely great to have May stumble on for a while with help from Northern Irish extremists (something which makes the stuff about Corbyn hobnobbing with Sinn Fein 40 years ago look distinctly dated).
But in the national interest? Not so much. It really will not last.
A friend of a friend works at the Standard. They like him. A good boss. Surprisingly human and approachable. Has energised the place.
I know people at the Treasury who also liked him a lot. He's calculating, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. People like that don't automatically take the side of the most important person in the room. If you satisfy him that your idea is in his interests, he's all ears, and that's good. Contrast May - for her, you're one of the inner circle, or you're an enemy to be dealt with.
He's also, apparently, likable and not that much like his public persona in conversation.
Remember when Ed Balls lost his seat he said one of the first people to reach out was Osborne who sent a very kind message that he much appreciated, and even though they disagreed strongly on things would often stay up together late discussing economics over a drink or three.
The two are good friends. Osborne is an absolute gent who offered to look after Balls' son in the Radio 5 green room knowing that Balls was just about to go on the airwaves and slag off his policies. I'm not sure they even disagree on that much, to be honest.
I imagine the PCP want to do unto him as Meleager's troops were done unto by Perdiccas.
[The regent of Macedon's empire had nearly been supplanted and killed by Meleager. He responded, in a manner befitting the age, by having Meleager's troops (with whom he had apparently reached an accord) trampled to death by elephants].
The sagacious David Herdson aside, the Tory 'ground game' reportage this election was nothing short of abysmal. Time and time again we were assured that Diane Abbott was up there with Profumo and Watergate in the pantheon of political hoo-ha's. What a load of tripe. Were these people trying to convince us or merely themselves?
Great posts throughout the election from Mr Meeks and also Black_Rook, who wrote extensively about the return of two party politics. Absolutely fascinating.
But whilst the political analysis has been great, I come here to watch seant, post rubbish and get great betting tips and soft intel.
So, a big vote of thanks to whoever tipped Enfield North Labour Hold at 7/2.
Someone noted that the Bet365 odds were out of line, and posted here and I filled my boots.
Huge thanks to the poster who published the constituencies with the highest number of voters aged 16-24. Superb intel which helped me to get on Devonport Labour Gain at 13/2.
A massive vote of thanks to the late night poster (early Sunday morning I think) who was tipping Fleetwood and Lancaster Labour hold, bet placed at 9/2.
Someone's excellent local knowledge helped me get on Plaid in Ceredigion at 15/8.
Rochdale Pioneers knowledge in the north east, I think, (might be the wrong poster) led me to Hartlepool Labour hold at 9/4.
Thank you to the poster who wondered if Clegg might lose his seat. I can't count it as a tip - I was steaming drunk that night, thought it would be funny and placed a silly bet on Labour gain at 9/1. Amazing.
The close but no cigar award goes to the tipster who fancied Thurrock Labour Gain at 7/1. I filled my boots, lost, but it could have been massive.
The missed opportunity was a combination of David Herdson's Tuesday night mood and local intelligence I was getting from labour canvassers in Wakefield. Should've. Could've. Didn't.
So thank you from a mug punter to PB regulars, each and every one of you. The level of knowledge is phenomenal.
Fair play .... I'm sure OGH will put up the donate button for you to express £ thanks too in due course perhaps...
Indeed, thank you to the Smithsons and TSE too.
I would contribute, however I know for a fact that OGH makes his living by "cutting through the spin to see what the data really says" so in his own words he absolutely doesn't need my cash.
In years to come people might remember it as "Corbyn was so shit and compromised he couldn't even beat May!"
That ignores the fact that it was only because the Tories thought Corbyn was hopeless that they called the election and exposed May's weaknesses.
Not really, my not entirely serious point is that this election won't necessarily be remembered as a near-miss for Labour if as seems very likely May's reputation plummets.
Much as it pain's me to say it, in this Osborne is right - Theresa seems to be completely and utterly mad!
She needs to go to bed and sleep for a long time.
Then get up, and resign.
There's a lot of anger and discontent bubbling in the Tory ranks. For the moment it will focus on Hill and Timothy. If she agrees to throw them over the side, she becomes a hostage in office. If she doesn't, the focus of the discontent will transfer to her.
Great posts throughout the election from Mr Meeks and also Black_Rook, who wrote extensively about the return of two party politics. Absolutely fascinating.
But whilst the political analysis has been great, I come here to watch seant, post rubbish and get great betting tips and soft intel.
So, a big vote of thanks to whoever tipped Enfield North Labour Hold at 7/2.
Someone noted that the Bet365 odds were out of line, and posted here and I filled my boots.
Huge thanks to the poster who published the constituencies with the highest number of voters aged 16-24. Superb intel which helped me to get on Devonport Labour Gain at 13/2.
A massive vote of thanks to the late night poster (early Sunday morning I think) who was tipping Fleetwood and Lancaster Labour hold, bet placed at 9/2.
Someone's excellent local knowledge helped me get on Plaid in Ceredigion at 15/8.
Rochdale Pioneers knowledge in the north east, I think, (might be the wrong poster) led me to Hartlepool Labour hold at 9/4.
Thank you to the poster who wondered if Clegg might lose his seat. I can't count it as a tip - I was steaming drunk that night, thought it would be funny and placed a silly bet on Labour gain at 9/1. Amazing.
The close but no cigar award goes to the tipster who fancied Thurrock Labour Gain at 7/1. I filled my boots, lost, but it could have been massive.
The missed opportunity was a combination of David Herdson's Tuesday night mood and local intelligence I was getting from labour canvassers in Wakefield. Should've. Could've. Didn't.
So thank you from a mug punter to PB regulars, each and every one of you. The level of knowledge is phenomenal.
A nice post.
I am still trying to remember who tipped Leeds NW as a Labour gain when it was 10-1. That was my only bet of the election and it was a big winner. Thanks to whoever it was!
Interesting feature from Scotland. Most of the SNP seats that went blue last night were former SLAB seats. People expected UKIP to be gateway drug that got people to switch from LAB to CON, but it was actually the SNP!
That is not entire true, WAK, Gordon and BRS use to be LD Moray, Banff and Buchan and Angus were all former CON seats. Stirling, East Renf., Aberdeen S, Dumfries and Ayr have all had CON MPs in the not too distant past although they were Labour before SNP
And in fairness all SCON seats were (prior to either 1997 or 1987) Tory seats.
The only two where this is only partially accurate are Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, and Ochil and South Perthshire. Ayr was a long time Tory seat but I don't think Carrick and Cumnock have been represented by a Tory in living memory. Likewise, Ochil was formerly a safe central belt Labour seat, but it's combined with South Perthshire which is a very good Conservative area and was held by the Tories before 1997.
It doesn't matter how favourable the opinion polls the Tories are not going to vote for another election so this Parliament is going 5 years, isn't it.
By-elections. And possibly defections (e.g. to LibDems).
I think the cut in police numbers didn't help the tories with the terrorist attacks in manchester/london.
I was messaging with some friends today about the police cuts issue. It wasn't specifically about terrorism or surveillance issues, but it was about rising crime, especially in urban places. People can feel that crime has been rising, theft, minor crimes and violent crimes have all been rising over the last year. Jez was able to link this to the cut in police numbers (probably correctly) and used the terrorism stuff as a way of bringing a weak area for May into focus.
We, the party of law and order, got beaten by a pacifist commie on crime. Think about that for a minute.
+1
You can debate the affordability, but "we will pay for more neighbourhood and armed police" is both a positive response and a specific action. All the Tories offered was empty slogans and knocking copy on Corbyn. It's that simple.
Agree entirely. Enough is enough is Brexit is Brexit. It doesn't mean anything! You could even make a cost-free but specific, actionable promise like "more police allocated to counter-terrorism" if you were still going big on the austerity thing, but frankly, if the British public aren't prepared for you to tap their wallets for more cash for counter-terrorism work in the aftermath of an atrocity, they're an undeserving bunch of have-cake-and-eaters.
Sympathies to Aaron and thanks for his as always good-natured and level-headed analysis.
As I said on the last thread, I think that from a purely partisan Labour viewpoint, it's absolutely great to have May stumble on for a while with help from Northern Irish extremists (something which makes the stuff about Corbyn hobnobbing with Sinn Fein 40 years ago look distinctly dated).
But in the national interest? Not so much. It really will not last.
Much appreciated Nick.
In common, TP, with many others here I'm sure, I'd like to wish you all the best in your future political career. I really hope it is very successful. The country, as well as your Party, needs more like you.
The headbangers won't support soft Brexit. The rest won't support hard Brexit.
My analysis as well, and my fear
Do you think that there is a cross party consensus for a soft Brexit - i.e face down the headbangers.
Yes, Brexit in name only, with some flim flam on free movement designed to have only a minimal practical impact on actual EU immigration numbers, That could and I think may be presented as a coordinated national inter-party position to propose to the EU
A friend of a friend works at the Standard. They like him. A good boss. Surprisingly human and approachable. Has energised the place.
I know people at the Treasury who also liked him a lot. He's calculating, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. People like that don't automatically take the side of the most important person in the room. If you satisfy him that your idea is in his interests, he's all ears, and that's good. Contrast May - for her, you're one of the inner circle, or you're an enemy to be dealt with.
He's also, apparently, likable and not that much like his public persona in conversation.
Remember when Ed Balls lost his seat he said one of the first people to reach out was Osborne who sent a very kind message that he much appreciated, and even though they disagreed strongly on things would often stay up together late discussing economics over a drink or three.
The two are good friends. Osborne is an absolute gent who offered to look after Balls' son in the Radio 5 green room knowing that Balls was just about to go on the airwaves and slag off his policies. I'm not sure they even disagree on that much, to be honest.
Well, they certainly agree that their parties have gone to the dogs!
And probably agree that life outside Westminster is more fun.
The headbangers won't support soft Brexit. The rest won't support hard Brexit.
My analysis as well, and my fear
Do you think that there is a cross party consensus for a soft Brexit - i.e face down the headbangers.
Not yet. But one aspect of the new situation that hasn't yet been analysed is that the parliamentary arithmetic will force the various opposition parties to co-ordinate and co-operate in a way that they haven't before. Out of these new working relationships may well emerge a path towards a soft Brexit, or even towards no Brexit (ratified by a second vote), working with the firm remainers within the Tory ranks.
Just a question: when are the good folk of Kensington likely to have democratic representation?
Looks like it could be a case of the Tories being so shocked to lose the seat by 30 votes they keep requesting recounts.
That's right. What has happened down there is the counters were literally falling asleep (see pictures on twitter) so they had to send them home to get some kip before coming back this evening. That said, you are right, Labour ahead by 38 after second recount so looks likely to be a sensational Labour to round off a dramatic 24 hours.
Just a question: when are the good folk of Kensington likely to have democratic representation?
Looks like it could be a case of the Tories being so shocked to lose the seat by 30 votes they keep requesting recounts.
That's right. What has happened down there is the counters were literally falling asleep (see pictures on twitter) so they had to send them home to get some kip before coming back this evening. That said, you are right, Labour ahead by 38 after second recount so looks likely to be a sensational Labour to round off a dramatic 24 hours.
Sympathies to Aaron and thanks for his as always good-natured and level-headed analysis.
As I said on the last thread, I think that from a purely partisan Labour viewpoint, it's absolutely great to have May stumble on for a while with help from Northern Irish extremists (something which makes the stuff about Corbyn hobnobbing with Sinn Fein 40 years ago look distinctly dated).
But in the national interest? Not so much. It really will not last.
'hobnobbing with Sinn Fain'.
Hmmm...I don't think that quite covers it.
Neither does using the word extremist for DUP, whilst vociferously denying it has any associations with Sinn Fein.
In a way so am relieved, for it cements the Union, but I fear that the position will not appease the working poor - those whom I wanted to help with my Leave vote. It will doubtless help me personally - Oxbridge educated antiquarian booksellers don't much worry about competition in the job market. It's my cousins I fear for. They've endured a poor education and have even poorer job prospects.
Some freedom of movement fudge must be made if the EU wants to actually help itself and is...
Comments
Hmmm...I don't think that quite covers it.
So, perhaps although Farron had a pretty poor campaign general, his line that night turned the result, at least a little:
"How dare Theresa May call a snap election and then not turn up for the debates."
How to cuddlify acts of treachery.
...thinking about it, having the 22 tell you who your chancellor is and what he says is probably less humiliating than having the 22 make him unsay what you told him to say in his Budget...
But whilst the political analysis has been great, I come here to watch seant, post rubbish and get great betting tips and soft intel.
So, a big vote of thanks to whoever tipped Enfield North Labour Hold at 7/2.
Someone noted that the Bet365 odds were out of line, and posted here and I filled my boots.
Huge thanks to the poster who published the constituencies with the highest number of voters aged 16-24. Superb intel which helped me to get on Devonport Labour Gain at 13/2.
A massive vote of thanks to the late night poster (early Sunday morning I think) who was tipping Fleetwood and Lancaster Labour hold, bet placed at 9/2.
Someone's excellent local knowledge helped me get on Plaid in Ceredigion at 15/8.
Rochdale Pioneers knowledge in the north east, I think, (might be the wrong poster) led me to Hartlepool Labour hold at 9/4.
Thank you to the poster who wondered if Clegg might lose his seat. I can't count it as a tip - I was steaming drunk that night, thought it would be funny and placed a silly bet on Labour gain at 9/1. Amazing.
The close but no cigar award goes to the tipster who fancied Thurrock Labour Gain at 7/1. I filled my boots, lost, but it could have been massive.
The missed opportunity was a combination of David Herdson's Tuesday night mood and local intelligence I was getting from labour canvassers in Wakefield. Should've. Could've. Didn't.
So thank you from a mug punter to PB regulars, each and every one of you. The level of knowledge is phenomenal.
This one will go down in the history books as one of the biggest miscalculations in modern times.
Could they impose Redwood?
I maintain that if Yvette had been leading Labour then she would be at the palace this afternoon forming a Labour government.
But, of course, May would never have called an early election if anyone but Jezza was leading Labour.
https://twitter.com/NaCeiltighAbu/status/803727471963152386
They can add May to the calendar now.
The DUP need to be careful. Look what happened to Clegg.
There are things they could've done. Focused on the economy, or cast a light on Labour splits versus a united team for example. And May could've been told to do the debates (she was fine on Question TIme - not amazing, but fine) and take to the soapbox. But they chose the wrong strategy, and stuck to it despite evidence it was fatally flawed.
- You must wear an orange sash
- Alcoholic drinks must be consumed out of cans - no wine allowed
- You are free to urinate wherever you wish
- When you pass a Catholic place of worship - please be respectful
- Should you wish to fight a fellow marcher, please wait until after the march has finished !!
The headbangers won't support soft Brexit. The rest won't support hard Brexit.
She needs to go to bed and sleep for a long time.
Then get up, and resign.
Just sprinkled a few quid around some possible next Tory leaders.
I imagine the PCP want to do unto him as Meleager's troops were done unto by Perdiccas.
[The regent of Macedon's empire had nearly been supplanted and killed by Meleager. He responded, in a manner befitting the age, by having Meleager's troops (with whom he had apparently reached an accord) trampled to death by elephants].
I would contribute, however I know for a fact that OGH makes his living by "cutting through the spin to see what the data really says" so in his own words he absolutely doesn't need my cash.
She aint gonna be giving May anything over next few months, especially on Brexit.
I am still trying to remember who tipped Leeds NW as a Labour gain when it was 10-1. That was my only bet of the election and it was a big winner. Thanks to whoever it was!
The only two where this is only partially accurate are Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, and Ochil and South Perthshire. Ayr was a long time Tory seat but I don't think Carrick and Cumnock have been represented by a Tory in living memory. Likewise, Ochil was formerly a safe central belt Labour seat, but it's combined with South Perthshire which is a very good Conservative area and was held by the Tories before 1997.
And probably agree that life outside Westminster is more fun.
they will love that in socially liberal Guardinista North London!
But the whole point of this election was to win Bolsover & Slough, not do worse than Cameron did for no good reason.
Corbynites: not fit to run a whelk stall.
In a way so am relieved, for it cements the Union, but I fear that the position will not appease the working poor - those whom I wanted to help with my Leave vote. It will doubtless help me personally - Oxbridge educated antiquarian booksellers don't much worry about competition in the job market. It's my cousins I fear for. They've endured a poor education and have even poorer job prospects.
Some freedom of movement fudge must be made if the EU wants to actually help itself and is...