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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks reflects on last night’s events

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  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    perdix said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brexit is dead.

    The headbangers won't support soft Brexit. The rest won't support hard Brexit.

    Ken Clarke is part of the Tories' wafer thin majority with the DUP.
    As I posted about 7 a.m. - Ken Clarke for Prime Minister!
    Clarke would be a great choice as PM of national unity. Why not? Would be best choice for the country at this critical hour.
    Father of the nation. He's earned it, and he's the only viable unifying figure. But, it would need to be predicated on an acceptance that his job is to reverse Brexit and I'm not sure we're politically ready for that yet. More pain needs to be administered first.
    I will never forgive Clarke for literally sitting on the same platform as Blair promoting the policy of joining the Euro.
    Not joining the Euro has proved to be a tragic mistake. The predictions that it would lead to loss of political influence and marginalisation of the UK have come true.
    Lol - the Greeks are loving their political influence- and the crashing of their economy is totally worth it.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,050

    perdix said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brexit is dead.

    The headbangers won't support soft Brexit. The rest won't support hard Brexit.

    Ken Clarke is part of the Tories' wafer thin majority with the DUP.
    As I posted about 7 a.m. - Ken Clarke for Prime Minister!
    Clarke would be a great choice as PM of national unity. Why not? Would be best choice for the country at this critical hour.
    Father of the nation. He's earned it, and he's the only viable unifying figure. But, it would need to be predicated on an acceptance that his job is to reverse Brexit and I'm not sure we're politically ready for that yet. More pain needs to be administered first.
    I will never forgive Clarke for literally sitting on the same platform as Blair promoting the policy of joining the Euro.
    Not joining the Euro has proved to be a tragic mistake. The predictions that it would lead to loss of political influence and marginalisation of the UK have come true.
    LOL. What a stunning piece of ignorance. Had we joined the Euro we can be certain we would have broken it or it wouldn't have broken us - probably both. 2008 with us in the role of Ireland would have brought the whole of the EU to its knees.

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    Danny565 said:

    jonny83 said:

    DUP won't let Corbyn get in if they have the chance to stop it.

    They won't put Corbyn in, but think it's very possible they'll pull the plug on Parliament and trigger a new election. Remember the DUP have a lot of working-class supporters, who I'd imagine are not overly-enamoured with Tory economics.
    The last thing the DUP want is another election. They just won three of the four Belfast seats. That's a peak they will want to stay on for the whole term if they can.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    atia2 said:

    My wife and I are looking to buy a house.

    How should we factor in political uncertainty into our financing over the next 5 years?

    Good question. I've just bought a flat and I don't know whether to complete now!
    My advice to to look at your flat/house as a home first. Anything else is a bonus.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    The problem with the DUP thing is that there are plenty of murky tales from back in the day, about how they aided and abetted Loyalist bad boys. I don't give them any credence myself, but the Left are sure to dig them up and run with them, especially after what was meted out to Jezza.

    Aided and abetted? At one point their then deputy leader was a member of Ulster Resistance!
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chameleon said:

    Hammond is AWOL.

    Is Hammond going to do a Redwood?
    He's about as popular.
    Stalking horse?
    Devon Loch ?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    edited June 2017
    perdix said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brexit is dead.

    The headbangers won't support soft Brexit. The rest won't support hard Brexit.

    Ken Clarke is part of the Tories' wafer thin majority with the DUP.
    As I posted about 7 a.m. - Ken Clarke for Prime Minister!
    Clarke would be a great choice as PM of national unity. Why not? Would be best choice for the country at this critical hour.
    Father of the nation. He's earned it, and he's the only viable unifying figure. But, it would need to be predicated on an acceptance that his job is to reverse Brexit and I'm not sure we're politically ready for that yet. More pain needs to be administered first.
    I will never forgive Clarke for literally sitting on the same platform as Blair promoting the policy of joining the Euro.

    Once Brexit is moth-balled the campaign to join the euro will ramp up in earnest. Just wait and see...
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Thinking about Article 50 and negotiations.

    It may be given the election result that the EU stance hardens into a take it or leave it strategy. The idea would be that EU leaders would decide this would be the time for the UK either to be fully in or fully out - no halfway house.

    So either the UK would be

    a) Hard Brexit - out of EU, out of customs union, out of Single Market - no preferential access whatsoever - no trade deal i.e. WTO rules.

    or

    b) Full EU membership - join Eurozone (ditch £ sterling), join Schengen, no rebate.

    What would the minority UK government do then?

    What would the UK electorate want?

    As a bunch we tend to be very resistant to be pushed. I suspect given a choice like that, Brussels would get two fingers.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,050

    Thinking about Article 50 and negotiations.

    It may be given the election result that the EU stance hardens into a take it or leave it strategy. The idea would be that EU leaders would decide this would be the time for the UK either to be fully in or fully out - no halfway house.

    So either the UK would be

    a) Hard Brexit - out of EU, out of customs union, out of Single Market - no preferential access whatsoever - no trade deal i.e. WTO rules.

    or

    b) Full EU membership - join Eurozone (ditch £ sterling), join Schengen, no rebate.

    What would the minority UK government do then?

    What would the UK electorate want?

    In those circumstances there would be a large majority for Hard Brexit. If you can't even muster a majority for remaining in the EU on the old terms you have no chance of getting us to remain in under those terms.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902

    perdix said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brexit is dead.

    The headbangers won't support soft Brexit. The rest won't support hard Brexit.

    Ken Clarke is part of the Tories' wafer thin majority with the DUP.
    As I posted about 7 a.m. - Ken Clarke for Prime Minister!
    Clarke would be a great choice as PM of national unity. Why not? Would be best choice for the country at this critical hour.
    Father of the nation. He's earned it, and he's the only viable unifying figure. But, it would need to be predicated on an acceptance that his job is to reverse Brexit and I'm not sure we're politically ready for that yet. More pain needs to be administered first.
    I will never forgive Clarke for literally sitting on the same platform as Blair promoting the policy of joining the Euro.
    Not joining the Euro has proved to be a tragic mistake. The predictions that it would lead to loss of political influence and marginalisation of the UK have come true.
    On the contrary...
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,597
    nichomar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour must fancy their chances in 2022 now, possibly even with a landslide. What can the Tories throw at him next time? The terrorist stuff can't be used again, and they probably won't even have Diane Abbott.

    On the other hand Corbyn may have maxed out the youth and anti-Brexit vote in this election.
    Don't forget it all depends if the cohort changes it's politics as they age, in five years there will be less of today's oldies and more young people coming through. Any evidence that the cohort"matures" in view point?
    Certainly there is evidence that people form their political perspective and voting behaviour in their late teens and early 20s. Having a big cohort that voted Labour for the first time in 2017 will give Labour a long-run boost, even after subsequent switching.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    If May makes it until Monday I reckon she'll be in for a fair while.

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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    GIN1138 said:

    It does seem that Paul Dacre has terrible political judgement doesn't it? Backed Brown (for a while) backed May. Hated Blair and was half-hearted (and came to hate) Cameron.

    Also I wonder what's happened to Ruperts political antenna? Maybe the old man's losing it...

    Totally agree also I think the sun supported the SNP in Scotland .
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,845

    My wife and I are looking to buy a house.

    How should we factor in political uncertainty into our financing over the next 5 years?

    Get fixed for as long as you can I reckon.
    Thanks. It's more income tax, NI, and council/land value tax destroying our budgets I'm worried about.

    There's also an argument for fully flexible because the more politically chaotic things are, the more likely interest rates will be floored.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    perdix said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brexit is dead.

    The headbangers won't support soft Brexit. The rest won't support hard Brexit.

    Ken Clarke is part of the Tories' wafer thin majority with the DUP.
    As I posted about 7 a.m. - Ken Clarke for Prime Minister!
    Clarke would be a great choice as PM of national unity. Why not? Would be best choice for the country at this critical hour.
    Father of the nation. He's earned it, and he's the only viable unifying figure. But, it would need to be predicated on an acceptance that his job is to reverse Brexit and I'm not sure we're politically ready for that yet. More pain needs to be administered first.
    I will never forgive Clarke for literally sitting on the same platform as Blair promoting the policy of joining the Euro.
    Not joining the Euro has proved to be a tragic mistake. The predictions that it would lead to loss of political influence and marginalisation of the UK have come true.
    YOu cannot blame that on not joining the Euro. The "... loss of political influence and marginalisation ... " is entirely self-inflicted.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    When do we expect cabinet appointments? Normally it would have started by now.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    I rarely disagree with Lord JohnO of Hersham but here I do.

    The PM should have done a Cameron. Announce her intention to go as soon as a new leader could be elected. Draw a line under the shamble and take the initiative. Instead the Conservative are limping along with a dead weight leader who has attached herself to the toxic DUP like an anchor around a drowning man. The Prime Minister is little short of a walking talking laughing stock.

    Do the Conservatives really believe clinging to a life line with the DUP will delight the type of voter they aim to attract. May has allowed personal survival and short term expediency to override the interests of the nation and her party.

    Theresa May called the general election for party gain. It was a shabby decision and she has been found out. She diminishes her office and herself further by staying a nano second longer than she must.

    Whilst I don't disagree on the main sentiment, changing leader won't alter the fact that we're dependent on the DUP.
    The answer is for May and the new leader not to attach themselves to the DUP and defy them to vote you down. Govern for the whole nation and not part of Ulster. Remember the government also has the card of no current government in Stormont.

    Every week attached to the DUP is a disaster. The Opposition will clamp you to all their "interesting" views like barnacles. Toxic doesn't come close.

    "We will not be held to ransom by the DUP" is a better feel that dancing with the devil. The cartoon of May on an Orangeman's top pocket is as powerful as Miliband as Sturgeon's puppet.
    More powerful as Sturgoen isn't a flat earth creationist homophobic bigot.
    Oh, you don't like them much then Alistair?
    I'm saying people being blase about working with the DUP are either totally ignorant them and their history or think they are David Trimble's UUP or something.

    JackW is wise. Listen to JackW
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Soft Brexit it is.

    In a way so am relieved, for it cements the Union, but I fear that the position will not appease the working poor - those whom I wanted to help with my Leave vote. It will doubtless help me personally - Oxbridge educated antiquarian booksellers don't much worry about competition in the job market. It's my cousins I fear for. They've endured a poor education and have even poorer job prospects.

    Some freedom of movement fudge must be made if the EU wants to actually help itself and is...

    I'm sorry Mortimer, you are so very late to the party and your wing has completely failed to take the party forwards, you and your "one nation" allies have fucked us for the next 10 years so you could get revenge on the Cameroons, who delivered us a majority.
    Steady, all three of us are Tories and support Brexit.

    Let's not fall out.
    You and I both saw this disaster coming a long way off, I emailed and spoke to people in the party and got the same response from them as I was seeing from Mortimer on here. "She's popular outside of your London bubble". Well she wasn't and her policies were crap. I emailed several people I know that we were pushing down the wrong path when the manifesto came out, we needed an immediate clarification of the policy and an immediate change in the WFA policy to let the North have the same climate based exemption as Scotland. I got completely stonewalled. I'm not a big player in the party, but I'm also not an idiot, on the night of the manifesto I dreaded that this day was on the horizon. Immediately I revised down my expectations from the 80+ majority to around 20-30, I thought the focus on security would get us back there, but just like Jo Cox's murder, it seems that these one off attacks had no real effect on the final outcome, or worse still we lost the law and order argument to Labour.

    We conceded the economic argument to chase these Lab -> UKIP voters but they all went back to Labour.

    We should have concentrated on winning as many of the 60% of the middle as we could, not try to maximise the 52% and hope that Labour Leavers didn't end up supporting the radical option in Jez. I fuckint said it to anyone who would listen in the party a year ago and again myself and others were ignored.

    I'm sick of being told that the grownups know what they are doing, it turns out that they were completely and utterly clueless.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SamCoatesTimes: Chief of Staffs watch: Am told David Davis pushing for TM to get rid of Hill/Timothy. Hearing suggestions Timothy likely to go soon.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    My wife and I are looking to buy a house.

    How should we factor in political uncertainty into our financing over the next 5 years?

    Yes.

    I am looking to sell one partly for similar reasons. I just hope the sale goes through before the economy takes a dive.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,597

    Thinking about Article 50 and negotiations.

    It may be given the election result that the EU stance hardens into a take it or leave it strategy. The idea would be that EU leaders would decide this would be the time for the UK either to be fully in or fully out - no halfway house.

    So either the UK would be

    a) Hard Brexit - out of EU, out of customs union, out of Single Market - no preferential access whatsoever - no trade deal i.e. WTO rules.

    or

    b) Full EU membership - join Eurozone (ditch £ sterling), join Schengen, no rebate.

    What would the minority UK government do then?

    What would the UK electorate want?

    In those circumstances there would be a large majority for Hard Brexit. If you can't even muster a majority for remaining in the EU on the old terms you have no chance of getting us to remain in under those terms.
    No, the choice we are heading toward is between soft Brexit and no deal or, just as likely, between soft Brexit and Remain.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/kevinjrawlinson/status/873043993826803714

    Events, dear boy, events :D
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Chief of Staffs watch: Am told David Davis pushing for TM to get rid of Hill/Timothy. Hearing suggestions Timothy likely to go soon.

    Good, they cannot stay.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    As with the Jo Cox murder, the terrorist attacks prompted a move away from the final result in the polls.

    Respondents guessing the "right" answer?
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Chief of Staffs watch: Am told David Davis pushing for TM to get rid of Hill/Timothy. Hearing suggestions Timothy likely to go soon.

    Good, they cannot stay.
    If they're having to push to get Hill/Timothy gone then it seems unlikely that May will go.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited June 2017
    Any stalking horse will beat her. The membership will sacrifice her in revenge for the position they find themselves in.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    JackW said:

    Order .. Order ..Here's another cheery snippet for PB Tories .. I give you ..

    Speaker Bercow ..

    :smiley:

    That is pleasing news for some of us.... it would be nice however if he's looking in here at PB, that in the next GE whenever it maybe to actually have a proper party choice for our vote and not a 4th non-vote in a GE. Could do with the seat for the Tory tally too now!
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    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    I rarely disagree with Lord JohnO of Hersham but here I do.

    The PM should have done a Cameron. Announce her intention to go as soon as a new leader could be elected. Draw a line under the shamble and take the initiative. Instead the Conservative are limping along with a dead weight leader who has attached herself to the toxic DUP like an anchor around a drowning man. The Prime Minister is little short of a walking talking laughing stock.

    Do the Conservatives really believe clinging to a life line with the DUP will delight the type of voter they aim to attract. May has allowed personal survival and short term expediency to override the interests of the nation and her party.

    Theresa May called the general election for party gain. It was a shabby decision and she has been found out. She diminishes her office and herself further by staying a nano second longer than she must.

    Whilst I don't disagree on the main sentiment, changing leader won't alter the fact that we're dependent on the DUP.
    The answer is for May and the new leader not to attach themselves to the DUP and defy them to vote you down. Govern for the whole nation and not part of Ulster. Remember the government also has the card of no current government in Stormont.

    Every week attached to the DUP is a disaster. The Opposition will clamp you to all their "interesting" views like barnacles. Toxic doesn't come close.

    "We will not be held to ransom by the DUP" is a better feel that dancing with the devil. The cartoon of May on an Orangeman's top pocket is as powerful as Miliband as Sturgeon's puppet.
    More powerful as Sturgoen isn't a flat earth creationist homophobic bigot.
    Oh, you don't like them much then Alistair?
    I'm saying people being blase about working with the DUP are either totally ignorant them and their history or think they are David Trimble's UUP or something.

    JackW is wise. Listen to JackW
    I know that the UUP were quite keen to learn a lot from the Scots Tories and some of the head office team had meetings with Ruth Davidson but she wasn't that keen to get too close because of the ahem traditional views of some of our members. And we allow free votes on issues of conscience. She will not like being tied at the hip with the DUP who repeatedly abuse the petition of concern over gay marriage and abortion.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,050
    nielh said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brexit is dead.

    The headbangers won't support soft Brexit. The rest won't support hard Brexit.

    Ken Clarke is part of the Tories' wafer thin majority with the DUP.
    As I posted about 7 a.m. - Ken Clarke for Prime Minister!
    Clarke would be a great choice as PM of national unity. Why not? Would be best choice for the country at this critical hour.
    Father of the nation. He's earned it, and he's the only viable unifying figure. But, it would need to be predicated on an acceptance that his job is to reverse Brexit and I'm not sure we're politically ready for that yet. More pain needs to be administered first.
    But a vote for labour was hardly a vote for remain, or even soft Brexit. Labour were offering the fantasy of keeping single market access whilst ending free movement. Something that is wholly unachievable politically. That was how it was able to unify its remainia student vote, with its leave northern voters.
    William persists in his fantasies that this election result is the death knell of Brexit. It isn't.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    TGOHF said:

    If May makes it until Monday I reckon she'll be in for a fair while.

    And Corbyn will win a landslide at the next election...
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Jonathan said:

    When do we expect cabinet appointments? Normally it would have started by now.


    Perhaps she's struggling to find people.
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    camelcamel Posts: 815
    It must be a bit frustrating if not galling for the youth to have celebrated the tories' "defeat" and labour's "win" and wake up to the status quo.

    Teresa's travails are no substitute for a £27k cash bonus.

    And for those less financially motivated, to see a fairly illiberal government propped up by the most illiberal party imaginable.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954

    nielh said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brexit is dead.

    The headbangers won't support soft Brexit. The rest won't support hard Brexit.

    Ken Clarke is part of the Tories' wafer thin majority with the DUP.
    As I posted about 7 a.m. - Ken Clarke for Prime Minister!
    Clarke would be a great choice as PM of national unity. Why not? Would be best choice for the country at this critical hour.
    Father of the nation. He's earned it, and he's the only viable unifying figure. But, it would need to be predicated on an acceptance that his job is to reverse Brexit and I'm not sure we're politically ready for that yet. More pain needs to be administered first.
    But a vote for labour was hardly a vote for remain, or even soft Brexit. Labour were offering the fantasy of keeping single market access whilst ending free movement. Something that is wholly unachievable politically. That was how it was able to unify its remainia student vote, with its leave northern voters.
    William persists in his fantasies that this election result is the death knell of Brexit. It isn't.
    I think it is... And I voted for Brexit.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,050
    IanB2 said:

    Thinking about Article 50 and negotiations.

    It may be given the election result that the EU stance hardens into a take it or leave it strategy. The idea would be that EU leaders would decide this would be the time for the UK either to be fully in or fully out - no halfway house.

    So either the UK would be

    a) Hard Brexit - out of EU, out of customs union, out of Single Market - no preferential access whatsoever - no trade deal i.e. WTO rules.

    or

    b) Full EU membership - join Eurozone (ditch £ sterling), join Schengen, no rebate.

    What would the minority UK government do then?

    What would the UK electorate want?

    In those circumstances there would be a large majority for Hard Brexit. If you can't even muster a majority for remaining in the EU on the old terms you have no chance of getting us to remain in under those terms.
    No, the choice we are heading toward is between soft Brexit and no deal or, just as likely, between soft Brexit and Remain.
    Remain simply isn't an option. The country would be ungovernable.
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    TGOHF said:

    If May makes it until Monday I reckon she'll be in for a fair while.

    Four by-elections or defections, or one DUP tantrum are all that stand between May and the trapdoor of a confidence vote.

    Meanwhile, Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke are already thumbing the recipe books and designing the invitations for all their dinner parties with Cameroons and closet Remoaners over coming weeks.

    If she makes it to Monday, she'd need a full personality transplant to have any chance of going anywhere near the distance.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    If May makes it until Monday I reckon she'll be in for a fair while.

    And Corbyn will win a landslide at the next election...
    at this point predicting anything seems rather pointless. speculating however is all we have!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    Anyone seen Philip Hammond?

    OUR CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER.

    Not for about seven weeks now....
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,042
    Mr. Sandpit, that sounds horrendous.

    Still, soon there'll be no live free-to-air coverage in the UK, thanks to the natural progression from the time the BBC decided to shaft the licence fee payer and invite Sky in.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,050
    GIN1138 said:

    nielh said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brexit is dead.

    The headbangers won't support soft Brexit. The rest won't support hard Brexit.

    Ken Clarke is part of the Tories' wafer thin majority with the DUP.
    As I posted about 7 a.m. - Ken Clarke for Prime Minister!
    Clarke would be a great choice as PM of national unity. Why not? Would be best choice for the country at this critical hour.
    Father of the nation. He's earned it, and he's the only viable unifying figure. But, it would need to be predicated on an acceptance that his job is to reverse Brexit and I'm not sure we're politically ready for that yet. More pain needs to be administered first.
    But a vote for labour was hardly a vote for remain, or even soft Brexit. Labour were offering the fantasy of keeping single market access whilst ending free movement. Something that is wholly unachievable politically. That was how it was able to unify its remainia student vote, with its leave northern voters.
    William persists in his fantasies that this election result is the death knell of Brexit. It isn't.
    I think it is... And I voted for Brexit.
    I know you do. And you are wrong.
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    Jonathan said:

    When do we expect cabinet appointments? Normally it would have started by now.

    Depends when the hostage in 10 Downing Street works out that she's a hostage and takes soundings.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2017

    Thinking about Article 50 and negotiations.

    It may be given the election result that the EU stance hardens into a take it or leave it strategy. The idea would be that EU leaders would decide this would be the time for the UK either to be fully in or fully out - no halfway house.

    So either the UK would be

    a) Hard Brexit - out of EU, out of customs union, out of Single Market - no preferential access whatsoever - no trade deal i.e. WTO rules.

    or

    b) Full EU membership - join Eurozone (ditch £ sterling), join Schengen, no rebate.

    What would the minority UK government do then?

    What would the UK electorate want?

    I think that you are on the right lines there, this election disaster will certainly harden their position. However, they can't propose the first of those options without accepting two things which will be extremely difficult for them: firstly, zero exit fee let alone continuing payments from us, and secondly favourable treatment of EU citizens living in the UK.

    Thinking further about Theresa May's position, she has set herself up to be the whipping-girl (is this the feminine of 'whipping-boy' ?) of pretty much everyone. Maybe she can do a further service to her country in this respect by becoming the sacrifical victim of the Brexit negotiations.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Remain simply isn't an option. The country would be ungovernable.

    The country is ungovernable now, if you want hard Brexit.
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    If I am a cabinet minister I wouldn't take the job if Hill and Timothy are there, well definitely Timothy.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,845

    Labour must fancy their chances in 2022 now, possibly even with a landslide. What can the Tories throw at him next time? The terrorist stuff can't be used again, and they probably won't even have Diane Abbott.

    I'd make Labour favourites, but if one thing the last 2 years (yes.. two) has taught me it's not to extrapolate and make any certain predictions for years out from today's events.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    TGOHF said:

    If May makes it until Monday I reckon she'll be in for a fair while.

    They should get a new leader who supported leave Dominac Raab springs to mind.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,845
    Looooooooooooooooolllllllllll!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,845

    Thinking about Article 50 and negotiations.

    It may be given the election result that the EU stance hardens into a take it or leave it strategy. The idea would be that EU leaders would decide this would be the time for the UK either to be fully in or fully out - no halfway house.

    So either the UK would be

    a) Hard Brexit - out of EU, out of customs union, out of Single Market - no preferential access whatsoever - no trade deal i.e. WTO rules.

    or

    b) Full EU membership - join Eurozone (ditch £ sterling), join Schengen, no rebate.

    What would the minority UK government do then?

    What would the UK electorate want?

    As a bunch we tend to be very resistant to be pushed. I suspect given a choice like that, Brussels would get two fingers.
    In which case we'd take the former.

    I'd take the former hands-down in that situation anyway.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,597

    IanB2 said:

    Thinking about Article 50 and negotiations.

    It may be given the election result that the EU stance hardens into a take it or leave it strategy. The idea would be that EU leaders would decide this would be the time for the UK either to be fully in or fully out - no halfway house.

    So either the UK would be

    a) Hard Brexit - out of EU, out of customs union, out of Single Market - no preferential access whatsoever - no trade deal i.e. WTO rules.

    or

    b) Full EU membership - join Eurozone (ditch £ sterling), join Schengen, no rebate.

    What would the minority UK government do then?

    What would the UK electorate want?

    In those circumstances there would be a large majority for Hard Brexit. If you can't even muster a majority for remaining in the EU on the old terms you have no chance of getting us to remain in under those terms.
    No, the choice we are heading toward is between soft Brexit and no deal or, just as likely, between soft Brexit and Remain.
    Remain simply isn't an option. The country would be ungovernable.
    It would need a second referendum, to trump the first. Whilst it still remains unlikely, there is now at least a path that might lead towards that outcome. Whether the electorate is prepared to vote for it depends on events and the economy thru 2019. The one lesson we should all learn from recent events is to pause before saying things aren't an option or can't happen?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,845
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Chief of Staffs watch: Am told David Davis pushing for TM to get rid of Hill/Timothy. Hearing suggestions Timothy likely to go soon.

    Good.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380

    Sympathies to Aaron and thanks for his as always good-natured and level-headed analysis.

    As I said on the last thread, I think that from a purely partisan Labour viewpoint, it's absolutely great to have May stumble on for a while with help from Northern Irish extremists (something which makes the stuff about Corbyn hobnobbing with Sinn Fein 40 years ago look distinctly dated).

    But in the national interest? Not so much. It really will not last.

    'hobnobbing with Sinn Fain'.

    Hmmm...I don't think that quite covers it.
    Neither does using the word extremist for DUP, whilst vociferously denying it has any associations with Sinn Fein.

    Corbynites: not fit to run a whelk stall.
    You don't find the DUP extreme?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/who-are-the-dup_uk_593a79c7e4b0b13f2c697d36?ncid=newsltuknew00000001

    I actually agree that Labour's leadership were a bit careless in whom they were nice to as backbenchers 40 years ago. But they've not invited an extreme sectarian party to JOIN THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UK, unlike Mrs May. Are you sure it's a good idea?
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    TonyTony Posts: 159
    GIN1138 said:

    nielh said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brexit is dead.

    The headbangers won't support soft Brexit. The rest won't support hard Brexit.

    Ken Clarke is part of the Tories' wafer thin majority with the DUP.
    As I posted about 7 a.m. - Ken Clarke for Prime Minister!
    Clarke would be a great choice as PM of national unity. Why not? Would be best choice for the country at this critical hour.
    Father of the nation. He's earned it, and he's the only viable unifying figure. But, it would need to be predicated on an acceptance that his job is to reverse Brexit and I'm not sure we're politically ready for that yet. More pain needs to be administered first.
    But a vote for labour was hardly a vote for remain, or even soft Brexit. Labour were offering the fantasy of keeping single market access whilst ending free movement. Something that is wholly unachievable politically. That was how it was able to unify its remainia student vote, with its leave northern voters.
    William persists in his fantasies that this election result is the death knell of Brexit. It isn't.
    I think it is... And I voted for Brexit.
    Really don't get this analysis, both main parties accepted the result of referendum and committed to ending free movement. How do we get from that to no brexit?
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    camelcamel Posts: 815
    Alistair said:
    Are they economically liberal too?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,845

    TGOHF said:

    If May makes it until Monday I reckon she'll be in for a fair while.

    Four by-elections or defections, or one DUP tantrum are all that stand between May and the trapdoor of a confidence vote.

    Meanwhile, Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke are already thumbing the recipe books and designing the invitations for all their dinner parties with Cameroons and closet Remoaners over coming weeks.

    If she makes it to Monday, she'd need a full personality transplant to have any chance of going anywhere near the distance.
    This Government may prove to be more stable than anticipated, Brexit aside.

    The DUP are at a high-water mark, will have lots of influence, want Brexit and don't want that to end.

    The Tories, Remainer or Leaver, will be utterly terrified of losing office to Corbyn's Labour.

    I'd expect discipline to be pretty good.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Soft Brexit it is.

    In a way so am relieved, for it cements the Union, but I fear that the position will not appease the working poor - those whom I wanted to help with my Leave vote. It will doubtless help me personally - Oxbridge educated antiquarian booksellers don't much worry about competition in the job market. It's my cousins I fear for. They've endured a poor education and have even poorer job prospects.

    Some freedom of movement fudge must be made if the EU wants to actually help itself and is...

    I'm sorry Mortimer, you are so very late to the party and your wing has completely failed to take the party forwards, you and your "one nation" allies have fucked us for the next 10 years so you could get revenge on the Cameroons, who delivered us a majority.
    Steady, all three of us are Tories and support Brexit.

    Let's not fall out.
    You and I both saw this disaster coming a long way off, I emailed and spoke to people in the party and got the same response from them as I was seeing from Mortimer on here. "She's popular outside of your London bubble". Well she wasn't and her policies were crap. I emailed several people I know that we were pushing down the wrong path when the manifesto came out, we needed an immediate clarification of the policy and an immediate change in the WFA policy to let the North have the same climate based exemption as Scotland. I got completely stonewalled. I'm not a big player in the party, but I'm also not an idiot, on the night of the manifesto I dreaded that this day was on the horizon. Immediately I revised down my expectations from the 80+ majority to around 20-30, I thought the focus on security would get us back there, but just like Jo Cox's murder, it seems that these one off attacks had no real effect on the final outcome, or worse still we lost the law and order argument to Labour.

    We conceded the economic argument to chase these Lab -> UKIP voters but they all went back to Labour.

    We should have concentrated on winning as many of the 60% of the middle as we could, not try to maximise the 52% and hope that Labour Leavers didn't end up supporting the radical option in Jez. I fuckint said it to anyone who would listen in the party a year ago and again myself and others were ignored.

    I'm sick of being told that the grownups know what they are doing, it turns out that they were completely and utterly clueless.
    A fair post. The insane anti-metropolitan zealots' crusade may have destroyed the party for a generation. I am still not sure they realise just how screwed they are.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Sympathies to Aaron and thanks for his as always good-natured and level-headed analysis.

    As I said on the last thread, I think that from a purely partisan Labour viewpoint, it's absolutely great to have May stumble on for a while with help from Northern Irish extremists (something which makes the stuff about Corbyn hobnobbing with Sinn Fein 40 years ago look distinctly dated).

    But in the national interest? Not so much. It really will not last.

    'hobnobbing with Sinn Fain'.

    Hmmm...I don't think that quite covers it.
    Neither does using the word extremist for DUP, whilst vociferously denying it has any associations with Sinn Fein.

    Corbynites: not fit to run a whelk stall.
    You don't find the DUP extreme?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/who-are-the-dup_uk_593a79c7e4b0b13f2c697d36?ncid=newsltuknew00000001

    I actually agree that Labour's leadership were a bit careless in whom they were nice to as backbenchers 40 years ago. But they've not invited an extreme sectarian party to JOIN THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UK, unlike Mrs May. Are you sure it's a good idea?
    Done badly this could reignite the troubles. And it will be done badly.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    GIN1138 said:

    nielh said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brexit is dead.

    The headbangers won't support soft Brexit. The rest won't support hard Brexit.

    Ken Clarke is part of the Tories' wafer thin majority with the DUP.
    As I posted about 7 a.m. - Ken Clarke for Prime Minister!
    Clarke would be a great choice as PM of national unity. Why not? Would be best choice for the country at this critical hour.
    Father of the nation. He's earned it, and he's the only viable unifying figure. But, it would need to be predicated on an acceptance that his job is to reverse Brexit and I'm not sure we're politically ready for that yet. More pain needs to be administered first.
    But a vote for labour was hardly a vote for remain, or even soft Brexit. Labour were offering the fantasy of keeping single market access whilst ending free movement. Something that is wholly unachievable politically. That was how it was able to unify its remainia student vote, with its leave northern voters.
    William persists in his fantasies that this election result is the death knell of Brexit. It isn't.
    I think it is... And I voted for Brexit.
    The irony is that given the court case that made the government seek permission to invoke Article 50, it would surely also take an Act of Parliament to revoke Article 50. How is an Article 50 Revocation Act going to get through Parliament without causing the government to collapse?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,845
    I see the Left are briefing that the DUP are the new Latvian SS..
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    IanB2 said:

    Thinking about Article 50 and negotiations.

    It may be given the election result that the EU stance hardens into a take it or leave it strategy. The idea would be that EU leaders would decide this would be the time for the UK either to be fully in or fully out - no halfway house.

    So either the UK would be

    a) Hard Brexit - out of EU, out of customs union, out of Single Market - no preferential access whatsoever - no trade deal i.e. WTO rules.

    or

    b) Full EU membership - join Eurozone (ditch £ sterling), join Schengen, no rebate.

    What would the minority UK government do then?

    What would the UK electorate want?

    In those circumstances there would be a large majority for Hard Brexit. If you can't even muster a majority for remaining in the EU on the old terms you have no chance of getting us to remain in under those terms.
    No, the choice we are heading toward is between soft Brexit and no deal or, just as likely, between soft Brexit and Remain.
    Remain simply isn't an option. The country would be ungovernable.
    Why? As someone said earlier if it had to go to a second referendum the result would probably be different with the new, young and enthused
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,100
    The one happy note on a sad day is to see Salmond and Robertson pick up a pair of P45s from the electorate. Hopefully the start of a return to normal politics in Scotland rather than the constitutional issues that have dominated the past decade.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Sympathies to Aaron and thanks for his as always good-natured and level-headed analysis.

    As I said on the last thread, I think that from a purely partisan Labour viewpoint, it's absolutely great to have May stumble on for a while with help from Northern Irish extremists (something which makes the stuff about Corbyn hobnobbing with Sinn Fein 40 years ago look distinctly dated).

    But in the national interest? Not so much. It really will not last.

    'hobnobbing with Sinn Fain'.

    Hmmm...I don't think that quite covers it.
    Neither does using the word extremist for DUP, whilst vociferously denying it has any associations with Sinn Fein.

    Corbynites: not fit to run a whelk stall.
    You don't find the DUP extreme?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/who-are-the-dup_uk_593a79c7e4b0b13f2c697d36?ncid=newsltuknew00000001

    I actually agree that Labour's leadership were a bit careless in whom they were nice to as backbenchers 40 years ago. But they've not invited an extreme sectarian party to JOIN THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UK, unlike Mrs May. Are you sure it's a good idea?
    Done badly this could reignite the troubles. And it will be done badly.
    The DUP are utterly toxic. May is mad. She is mad.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,255
    Freggles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Alistair said:

    Yeah but links with extremism didn't stop Corbyn though did it?
    I think that's because most people who voted him either did not know or did not care or did care but judged other matters more important e.g. his policies, stopping the Tories. There will be some (sadly) who may have voted for him because of his extremist links.

    Being dependant on the DUP will be a whole load more visible. The DUP are the Protestant equivalent of Sinn Fein and they too have had their dark and violent side. Ian Paisley was as unacceptable an individual to me as Martin McGuinness (Google what he was doing and saying about Catholics in the late 1960s.)

    And there are, frankly, double standards when it comes to gay rights / womens rights etc. It is perfectly OK for the Left to cosy up to people who believe in neither of these things, indeed believe that women should be stoned for adultery and gay men killed. But woe betide anyone on the right who cosies up to people or groups believing the same thing. There is a moral self-righteousness on the part of some on the Left which enables them to see the beam in others' eyes but not the mote in their own.

    The Tories should stay away from the DUP.

    Did you not notice what happened to Tim Farron on this election? Did he get a free pass?
    Tim Farron does not believe in stoning adulterous women or killing gay men nor has he ever associated (as far as I know) with people or groups who do. Unlike too many in the Labour leadership.

    If it was acceptable to challenge Farron on his personal religious beliefs why didn't the Left challenge itself about Corbyn befriending notorious anti-Semites and Holocaust deniers?

    Sorry: Corbyn ran a good campaign and has done well, especially given the low expectations most had of him. He deserves congratulations for that.

    But that does not excuse his extremely poor moral judgment on such matters. Anyone who supports him who knows about these matters either has to excuse them away, pretend that the facts are not as they are, or has to say that they are not as important as other matters. I disagree. I think that one's attitude to the use of political violence and to matters such as racism (and anti-Semitism is the oldest, most pernicious and most damaging - certainly historically - of all racisms) tell me something very fundamental about the character and judgment of a person. And it also tells me something quite important about those who handwave such matters away. Others may disagree of course.

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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658

    Tory Leader outsider - Tracey Crouch (I have 500-1 bet on) - sleep deprived ramblings...

    - endorsed by Brian May's 'party' in this election (can clearly reach out to lefties)

    - anti fox-hunting (essential to detoxify tories with the youf)

    - The Daily Telegraph listed her as one of their "pragmatic, Eurosceptic" new MPs who seeks to "anchor the [Conservative] party to the right of centre"

    - Crouch describes herself as a "compassionate, One-Nation Conservative"

    - She voted in favour of the Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Act 2013

    - Sports Minster as was and keen on footie with excellent taste in her team.

    - Re Brexit, I can't see that she declared one way or the other on it. Given the split in the party again, this might be 'helpful' and certainly she wasn't strident one way or the other.

    Bet available where, if I might ask?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,597

    GIN1138 said:

    nielh said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brexit is dead.

    The headbangers won't support soft Brexit. The rest won't support hard Brexit.

    Ken Clarke is part of the Tories' wafer thin majority with the DUP.
    As I posted about 7 a.m. - Ken Clarke for Prime Minister!
    Clarke would be a great choice as PM of national unity. Why not? Would be best choice for the country at this critical hour.
    Father of the nation. He's earned it, and he's the only viable unifying figure. But, it would need to be predicated on an acceptance that his job is to reverse Brexit and I'm not sure we're politically ready for that yet. More pain needs to be administered first.
    But a vote for labour was hardly a vote for remain, or even soft Brexit. Labour were offering the fantasy of keeping single market access whilst ending free movement. Something that is wholly unachievable politically. That was how it was able to unify its remainia student vote, with its leave northern voters.
    William persists in his fantasies that this election result is the death knell of Brexit. It isn't.
    I think it is... And I voted for Brexit.
    The irony is that given the court case that made the government seek permission to invoke Article 50, it would surely also take an Act of Parliament to revoke Article 50. How is an Article 50 Revocation Act going to get through Parliament without causing the government to collapse?
    If it followed a fresh vote where the alternative Brexit deal had been rejected, I don't see any problem with parliament at all, for the same reasons that A50 got sent in the first place.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Tony said:

    Really don't get this analysis, both main parties accepted the result of referendum and committed to ending free movement. How do we get from that to no brexit?

    Neither party admitted to the economic consequences of that commitment, and neither party has a majority for economic suicide (any more)
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    By the way, Ashcroft's report today shows that most now think that immigration has been on balance beneficial, and a larger majority like multiculturalism. I think that in a curious way Brexit has lanced the boil.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Sympathies to Aaron and thanks for his as always good-natured and level-headed analysis.

    As I said on the last thread, I think that from a purely partisan Labour viewpoint, it's absolutely great to have May stumble on for a while with help from Northern Irish extremists (something which makes the stuff about Corbyn hobnobbing with Sinn Fein 40 years ago look distinctly dated).

    But in the national interest? Not so much. It really will not last.

    'hobnobbing with Sinn Fain'.

    Hmmm...I don't think that quite covers it.
    Neither does using the word extremist for DUP, whilst vociferously denying it has any associations with Sinn Fein.

    Corbynites: not fit to run a whelk stall.
    You don't find the DUP extreme?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/who-are-the-dup_uk_593a79c7e4b0b13f2c697d36?ncid=newsltuknew00000001

    I actually agree that Labour's leadership were a bit careless in whom they were nice to as backbenchers 40 years ago. But they've not invited an extreme sectarian party to JOIN THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UK, unlike Mrs May. Are you sure it's a good idea?
    Done badly this could reignite the troubles. And it will be done badly.
    The DUP are utterly toxic. May is mad. She is mad.
    Sinn Fein won't be able to make agreement on devolved government whilst the DUP have the UK government in their pocket. Keeping the lid on the anger will be hard now.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    AndyJS said:

    Labour must fancy their chances in 2022 now, possibly even with a landslide. What can the Tories throw at him next time? The terrorist stuff can't be used again, and they probably won't even have Diane Abbott.

    On the other hand Corbyn may have maxed out the youth and anti-Brexit vote in this election.
    You think the Kippers that went Con this election will bother next time?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sandpit said:

    The one happy note on a sad day is to see Salmond and Robertson pick up a pair of P45s from the electorate. Hopefully the start of a return to normal politics in Scotland rather than the constitutional issues that have dominated the past decade.
    "WE ARE THE (P) 45 ! "

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    JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    Haven't posted for a while. Did I miss anything :)
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,045

    I see the Left are briefing that the DUP are the new Latvian SS..

    They are my friend!! Your best buddies! Shame on you! Anyway, the whole thing will collapse soon and we can get a proper progressive Government.
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    camelcamel Posts: 815

    Sympathies to Aaron and thanks for his as always good-natured and level-headed analysis.

    As I said on the last thread, I think that from a purely partisan Labour viewpoint, it's absolutely great to have May stumble on for a while with help from Northern Irish extremists (something which makes the stuff about Corbyn hobnobbing with Sinn Fein 40 years ago look distinctly dated).

    But in the national interest? Not so much. It really will not last.

    'hobnobbing with Sinn Fain'.

    Hmmm...I don't think that quite covers it.
    Neither does using the word extremist for DUP, whilst vociferously denying it has any associations with Sinn Fein.

    Corbynites: not fit to run a whelk stall.
    You don't find the DUP extreme?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/who-are-the-dup_uk_593a79c7e4b0b13f2c697d36?ncid=newsltuknew00000001

    I actually agree that Labour's leadership were a bit careless in whom they were nice to as backbenchers 40 years ago. But they've not invited an extreme sectarian party to JOIN THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UK, unlike Mrs May. Are you sure it's a good idea?
    All recipients of the 2010 tory manifesto were invited to "'join the government of the britain". I thought it was a bit of a joke at the time, but actually politics has been turned on its head ever since. Basically, since we all joined the government of the britain, we've proved to be utterly useless at it.

    Interesting times.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    That's a nice Overton window you've got there. It'd be a real shame if it were to be.... Pushed to the left.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Alistair said:
    Yeah, lets go to the polls again. (After May is kaput).
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    I actually agree that Labour's leadership were a bit careless in whom they were nice to as backbenchers 40 years ago. But they've not invited an extreme sectarian party to JOIN THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UK, unlike Mrs May. Are you sure it's a good idea?

    Reading Theresa May's statement, the thought occurs to me that she might be a bit confused on who the DUP are:

    As we do, we will continue to work with our friends and allies in the Democratic Unionist party in particular.

    Our two parties have enjoyed a strong relationship over many years, and this gives me the confidence to believe that we will be able to work together in the interests of the whole United Kingdom.


    It's news to me that the Conservatives and the DUP are 'allies' who 'have enjoyed a strong relationship over many years'.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,100
    JWisemann said:

    Haven't posted for a while. Did I miss anything :)

    Nah, Theresa May is still PM.
  • Options
    Fixed Term Parliament Act

    Doesn't that still require a two thirds majority to force another election.

    Are the Tories seriously going to try going down this route again?

    Won't Corbyn become PM before a second election of the new government is unstable and collapses???
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    TGOHF said:

    If May makes it until Monday I reckon she'll be in for a fair while.

    Four by-elections or defections, or one DUP tantrum are all that stand between May and the trapdoor of a confidence vote.

    Meanwhile, Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke are already thumbing the recipe books and designing the invitations for all their dinner parties with Cameroons and closet Remoaners over coming weeks.

    If she makes it to Monday, she'd need a full personality transplant to have any chance of going anywhere near the distance.
    This Government may prove to be more stable than anticipated, Brexit aside.

    The DUP are at a high-water mark, will have lots of influence, want Brexit and don't want that to end.

    The Tories, Remainer or Leaver, will be utterly terrified of losing office to Corbyn's Labour.

    I'd expect discipline to be pretty good.
    Nicky Morgan, Anna Soubry, and Ken Clarke don't give a flying about discipline if indiscipline furthers their aims. But if May tacks to them, the hard Brexit headbangers will be equally brutal.

    This in Major's eurosceptic "bastards" but with more horrendous maths. Plus Major personally gave his MPs an unexpected win in 1992, whereas May personally shat on their doorstep 25 years later... which of those engenders unity and loyalty?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,597
    edited June 2017
    Tony said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nielh said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brexit is dead.

    The headbangers won't support soft Brexit. The rest won't support hard Brexit.

    Ken Clarke is part of the Tories' wafer thin majority with the DUP.
    As I posted about 7 a.m. - Ken Clarke for Prime Minister!
    Clarke would be a great choice as PM of national unity. Why not? Would be best choice for the country at this critical hour.
    Father of the nation. He's earned it, and he's the only viable unifying figure. But, it would need to be predicated on an acceptance that his job is to reverse Brexit and I'm not sure we're politically ready for that yet. More pain needs to be administered first.
    But a vote for labour was hardly a vote for remain, or even soft Brexit. Labour were offering the fantasy of keeping single market access whilst ending free movement. Something that is wholly unachievable politically. That was how it was able to unify its remainia student vote, with its leave northern voters.
    William persists in his fantasies that this election result is the death knell of Brexit. It isn't.
    I think it is... And I voted for Brexit.
    Really don't get this analysis, both main parties accepted the result of referendum and committed to ending free movement. How do we get from that to no brexit?
    a) May's failure to secure the mandate she requested for her approach to Brexit
    b) the known antipathy of a majority of the Commons to hard Brexit and probably to Brexit per se.
    c) the logic of the Labour plan to work up a Brexit plan and put it to Parliament, coupled with the LibDem plan to give the people the final say with the alternative being status quo
    d) the continuing bafflement of the rest of the world at the mistakes the UK is making
    e) the now greater likelihood of political and/or economic headwinds throwing HMG off course

    Not, yet, probable. But certainly possible.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,845
    murali_s said:

    I see the Left are briefing that the DUP are the new Latvian SS..

    They are my friend!! Your best buddies! Shame on you! Anyway, the whole thing will collapse soon and we can get a proper progressive Government.
    A post as inarticulate as it is inaccurate.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    I see the Left are briefing that the DUP are the new Latvian SS..

    Poor Tim Farron found out that white Christians aren't allowed these sorts of beliefs.

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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nielh said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brexit is dead.

    The headbangers won't support soft Brexit. The rest won't support hard Brexit.

    Ken Clarke is part of the Tories' wafer thin majority with the DUP.
    As I posted about 7 a.m. - Ken Clarke for Prime Minister!
    Clarke would be a great choice as PM of national unity. Why not? Would be best choice for the country at this critical hour.
    Father of the nation. He's earned it, and he's the only viable unifying figure. But, it would need to be predicated on an acceptance that his job is to reverse Brexit and I'm not sure we're politically ready for that yet. More pain needs to be administered first.
    But a vote for labour was hardly a vote for remain, or even soft Brexit. Labour were offering the fantasy of keeping single market access whilst ending free movement. Something that is wholly unachievable politically. That was how it was able to unify its remainia student vote, with its leave northern voters.
    William persists in his fantasies that this election result is the death knell of Brexit. It isn't.
    I think it is... And I voted for Brexit.
    The irony is that given the court case that made the government seek permission to invoke Article 50, it would surely also take an Act of Parliament to revoke Article 50. How is an Article 50 Revocation Act going to get through Parliament without causing the government to collapse?
    If it followed a fresh vote where the alternative Brexit deal had been rejected, I don't see any problem with parliament at all, for the same reasons that A50 got sent in the first place.
    A50 got sent because the nation had voted for it in a referendum. How is that the same reasons as politicians declaring a bad deal is worse than no deal?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Incidentally I feel like a fucking genius for laying off my Lib Dem Fife North East bet at the last minute.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    Fixed Term Parliament Act

    Doesn't that still require a two thirds majority to force another election.

    Are the Tories seriously going to try going down this route again?

    Won't Corbyn become PM before a second election of the new government is unstable and collapses???

    If 2/3 vote it is an election. For Corbyn to maybe become PM, there'd have to be a vote of no confidence.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,597

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nielh said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brexit is dead.

    The headbangers won't support soft Brexit. The rest won't support hard Brexit.

    Ken Clarke is part of the Tories' wafer thin majority with the DUP.
    As I posted about 7 a.m. - Ken Clarke for Prime Minister!
    Clarke would be a great choice as PM of national unity. Why not? Would be best choice for the country at this critical hour.
    Father of the nation. He's earned it, and he's the only viable unifying figure. But, it would need to be predicated on an acceptance that his job is to reverse Brexit and I'm not sure we're politically ready for that yet. More pain needs to be administered first.
    But a vote for labour was hardly a vote for remain, or even soft Brexit. Labour were offering the fantasy of keeping single market access whilst ending free movement. Something that is wholly unachievable politically. That was how it was able to unify its remainia student vote, with its leave northern voters.
    William persists in his fantasies that this election result is the death knell of Brexit. It isn't.
    I think it is... And I voted for Brexit.
    The irony is that given the court case that made the government seek permission to invoke Article 50, it would surely also take an Act of Parliament to revoke Article 50. How is an Article 50 Revocation Act going to get through Parliament without causing the government to collapse?
    If it followed a fresh vote where the alternative Brexit deal had been rejected, I don't see any problem with parliament at all, for the same reasons that A50 got sent in the first place.
    A50 got sent because the nation had voted for it in a referendum. How is that the same reasons as politicians declaring a bad deal is worse than no deal?
    It would follow a second referendum.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Who's going to channel Macron and do an en Marche? New centrist movement. The progressive unionists. Marginalise Hard Brexiteers and Corbynites and clean up on a wave of optimism of a new way.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    I actually agree that Labour's leadership were a bit careless in whom they were nice to as backbenchers 40 years ago. But they've not invited an extreme sectarian party to JOIN THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UK, unlike Mrs May. Are you sure it's a good idea?

    Reading Theresa May's statement, the thought occurs to me that she might be a bit confused on who the DUP are:

    As we do, we will continue to work with our friends and allies in the Democratic Unionist party in particular.

    Our two parties have enjoyed a strong relationship over many years, and this gives me the confidence to believe that we will be able to work together in the interests of the whole United Kingdom.


    It's news to me that the Conservatives and the DUP are 'allies' who 'have enjoyed a strong relationship over many years'.
    Is she confusing them with the UUP??
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nielh said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brexit is dead.

    The headbangers won't support soft Brexit. The rest won't support hard Brexit.

    Ken Clarke is part of the Tories' wafer thin majority with the DUP.
    As I posted about 7 a.m. - Ken Clarke for Prime Minister!
    Clarke would be a great choice as PM of national unity. Why not? Would be best choice for the country at this critical hour.
    Father of the nation. He's earned it, and he's the only viable unifying figure. But, it would need to be predicated on an acceptance that his job is to reverse Brexit and I'm not sure we're politically ready for that yet. More pain needs to be administered first.
    But a vote for labour was hardly a vote for remain, or even soft Brexit. Labour were offering the fantasy of keeping single market access whilst ending free movement. Something that is wholly unachievable politically. That was how it was able to unify its remainia student vote, with its leave northern voters.
    William persists in his fantasies that this election result is the death knell of Brexit. It isn't.
    I think it is... And I voted for Brexit.
    The irony is that given the court case that made the government seek permission to invoke Article 50, it would surely also take an Act of Parliament to revoke Article 50. How is an Article 50 Revocation Act going to get through Parliament without causing the government to collapse?
    If it followed a fresh vote where the alternative Brexit deal had been rejected, I don't see any problem with parliament at all, for the same reasons that A50 got sent in the first place.
    A50 got sent because the nation had voted for it in a referendum. How is that the same reasons as politicians declaring a bad deal is worse than no deal?
    It would follow a second referendum.
    Will a second referendum get through Parliament?
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,050
    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Thinking about Article 50 and negotiations.

    It may be given the election result that the EU stance hardens into a take it or leave it strategy. The idea would be that EU leaders would decide this would be the time for the UK either to be fully in or fully out - no halfway house.

    So either the UK would be

    a) Hard Brexit - out of EU, out of customs union, out of Single Market - no preferential access whatsoever - no trade deal i.e. WTO rules.

    or

    b) Full EU membership - join Eurozone (ditch £ sterling), join Schengen, no rebate.

    What would the minority UK government do then?

    What would the UK electorate want?

    In those circumstances there would be a large majority for Hard Brexit. If you can't even muster a majority for remaining in the EU on the old terms you have no chance of getting us to remain in under those terms.
    No, the choice we are heading toward is between soft Brexit and no deal or, just as likely, between soft Brexit and Remain.
    Remain simply isn't an option. The country would be ungovernable.
    Why? As someone said earlier if it had to go to a second referendum the result would probably be different with the new, young and enthused
    Because any party that tried to do that would be destroyed and a UKIP like party would end up holding the balance of power. Don't underestimate the justified sense of betrayal that would drive such a movement.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Who's going to channel Macron and do an en Marche? New centrist movement. The progressive unionists. Marginalise Hard Brexiteers and Corbynites and clean up on a wave of optimism of a new way.

    Led by Chukka..

    Lol.

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    Sympathies to Aaron and thanks for his as always good-natured and level-headed analysis.

    As I said on the last thread, I think that from a purely partisan Labour viewpoint, it's absolutely great to have May stumble on for a while with help from Northern Irish extremists (something which makes the stuff about Corbyn hobnobbing with Sinn Fein 40 years ago look distinctly dated).

    But in the national interest? Not so much. It really will not last.

    'hobnobbing with Sinn Fain'.

    Hmmm...I don't think that quite covers it.
    Neither does using the word extremist for DUP, whilst vociferously denying it has any associations with Sinn Fein.

    Corbynites: not fit to run a whelk stall.
    You don't find the DUP extreme?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/who-are-the-dup_uk_593a79c7e4b0b13f2c697d36?ncid=newsltuknew00000001

    I actually agree that Labour's leadership were a bit careless in whom they were nice to as backbenchers 40 years ago. But they've not invited an extreme sectarian party to JOIN THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UK, unlike Mrs May. Are you sure it's a good idea?
    Done badly this could reignite the troubles. And it will be done badly.
    The DUP are utterly toxic. May is mad. She is mad.
    Sinn Fein won't be able to make agreement on devolved government whilst the DUP have the UK government in their pocket. Keeping the lid on the anger will be hard now.
    Suits them. As long as Unionism doesn't wake up and become reasonable in the next decade the demographic shift will grant them a united Ireland within 15. And in the meantime they can concentrate all resources on Dublin. With the DUP as the sole bastion of Unionism they know full well Unionism won't become reasonable to attract any Catholic support.
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,045

    murali_s said:

    I see the Left are briefing that the DUP are the new Latvian SS..

    They are my friend!! Your best buddies! Shame on you! Anyway, the whole thing will collapse soon and we can get a proper progressive Government.
    A post as inarticulate as it is inaccurate.
    Inarticulate maybe but inaccurate? Nah...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Who's going to channel Macron and do an en Marche? New centrist movement. The progressive unionists. Marginalise Hard Brexiteers and Corbynites and clean up on a wave of optimism of a new way.


    It is not yet clear where (Ruth) Davidson’s ceiling lies, if it even exists, but she has fans in interesting places. If she announced tomorrow that she had decided to lead a UK version of En Marche!, she would have the money and backing to do i
    t.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2017/06/scottish-electoral-earthquake-has-killed-indyref2-and-shaken-snp
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    I actually agree that Labour's leadership were a bit careless in whom they were nice to as backbenchers 40 years ago. But they've not invited an extreme sectarian party to JOIN THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UK, unlike Mrs May. Are you sure it's a good idea?

    Reading Theresa May's statement, the thought occurs to me that she might be a bit confused on who the DUP are:

    As we do, we will continue to work with our friends and allies in the Democratic Unionist party in particular.

    Our two parties have enjoyed a strong relationship over many years, and this gives me the confidence to believe that we will be able to work together in the interests of the whole United Kingdom.


    It's news to me that the Conservatives and the DUP are 'allies' who 'have enjoyed a strong relationship over many years'.
    Is she confusing them with the UUP??
    Well, I hate to say it, but that is how it reads.
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    I actually agree that Labour's leadership were a bit careless in whom they were nice to as backbenchers 40 years ago. But they've not invited an extreme sectarian party to JOIN THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UK, unlike Mrs May. Are you sure it's a good idea?

    Reading Theresa May's statement, the thought occurs to me that she might be a bit confused on who the DUP are:

    As we do, we will continue to work with our friends and allies in the Democratic Unionist party in particular.

    Our two parties have enjoyed a strong relationship over many years, and this gives me the confidence to believe that we will be able to work together in the interests of the whole United Kingdom.


    It's news to me that the Conservatives and the DUP are 'allies' who 'have enjoyed a strong relationship over many years'.
    Yes. I would hope she would remember the UUP and Tories jointly fought a bitter and unsuccessful campaign against the DUP in 2010
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,597

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Thinking about Article 50 and negotiations.

    It may be given the election result that the EU stance hardens into a take it or leave it strategy. The idea would be that EU leaders would decide this would be the time for the UK either to be fully in or fully out - no halfway house.

    So either the UK would be

    a) Hard Brexit - out of EU, out of customs union, out of Single Market - no preferential access whatsoever - no trade deal i.e. WTO rules.

    or

    b) Full EU membership - join Eurozone (ditch £ sterling), join Schengen, no rebate.

    What would the minority UK government do then?

    What would the UK electorate want?

    In those circumstances there would be a large majority for Hard Brexit. If you can't even muster a majority for remaining in the EU on the old terms you have no chance of getting us to remain in under those terms.
    No, the choice we are heading toward is between soft Brexit and no deal or, just as likely, between soft Brexit and Remain.
    Remain simply isn't an option. The country would be ungovernable.
    Why? As someone said earlier if it had to go to a second referendum the result would probably be different with the new, young and enthused
    Because any party that tried to do that would be destroyed and a UKIP like party would end up holding the balance of power. Don't underestimate the justified sense of betrayal that would drive such a movement.
    If you aren't a Tory then resurrecting the split in the Tory party is surely a spin-off benefit?
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    TGOHF said:

    Who's going to channel Macron and do an en Marche? New centrist movement. The progressive unionists. Marginalise Hard Brexiteers and Corbynites and clean up on a wave of optimism of a new way.

    Led by Chukka..

    Lol.

    Could be any of them. They will all have new and fresh skins in the new party.
This discussion has been closed.