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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks reflects on last night’s events

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    So. My view.

    I was out hard canvassing in Ealing Central and Acton. I gave a few notes when I started but then we were told not to share the campaign on social media, so I STFU.

    I could have written @david_herdson's post on the day pre-election. Literally dozens and dozens of previously Cons-voting Remainers absolutely furious with the Cons in general and Tezza in particular. Whole families (in multi-million pound houses) not only not voting Cons but telling me they were going to vote Lab. Lab FFS.

    I asked why Jezza got a free pass on his misdemeanours and not Tezza but they weren't having any of it. They blamed the Cons for holding the EU Ref in the first place and that anger was going to be expressed at the ballot box.....

    Thanks for that.

    One question: was it like that from the start, or only towards the end of the campaign?
    From the very start. ECA is a super-Remain constituency and there was a lot of anger. I spoke to several people directly affected by the social care announcements but they put it in to a "policy" bucket rather than an ideological one where Brexit was.

    Something I forgot to add - there were dozens and dozens of young Lab GOTV-ers on the street yesterday. No idea how much GOTV works, but if it does, it did yesterday. There were plenty of us but they were in a different league, numbers-wise. (Not quality-wise, obvs :wink: )
    Yes, I was driving through north London yesterday and there were young Labour helpers everywhere. A half million membership, denser in London, certainly provides a lot of helpers and this must be part of the explanation for the ride in turnout.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257

    Looks like my derided forecast about Sinn Fein taking up their seats might come true!?

    Maybe Corbyn can just, I don't know, invite them in?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: In case you were wondering.... Sinn Fein didn't announce that they are going to take their seats
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    Anyone got a YouGov-to-Reality comparison chart?

    Look at Michael Caley on twitter
    Ta
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    As an aside, the exit poll was amazing again!! Initially rubbished by many, but ended up very accurate.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253
    Scott_P said:

    Theresa May must resign. I know, there’s some grim parody of a government being hawked from the streets of Downing Street — a Strong-and-Stable coalition of Tories and Ulster Unionists of one stripe or another — but it isn’t just incoherent of Theresa May (who fought against such coalitions of chaos, remember) to insist on being our Prime Minister, despite the election result. It’s an obscenity.

    Let’s count the ways Theresa May has ruined Britain and the Conservative Party. She took a Tory majority delivered by David Cameron just two years ago and destroyed it, ending the careers of fine parliamentarians such as Ben Gummer, Jane Ellison and Gavin Barwell in the process.

    She lost this general election — which she didn’t need to hold — against the most disgusting man ever to lead the Labour Party.

    By losing to Corbyn — because not crushing his insidious politics is to lose to it — she has made Britain more extreme, because Corbynism is now the default position of the Left.


    https://capx.co/theresa-may-must-go-and-go-now/

    That's not entirely fair.

    Corbyn's election as Labour leader preceded Brexit by some way, and Labour managed that one all by themselves.

    You could blame Ed Miliband and the utter insipidness of his rivals for that.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited June 2017
    Sean_F said:

    So, tell me, Corbynites, if Jeremy Corbyn does become PM thanks to Sinn Fein, does that validate all the Tories points about his past links with supporters of terrorism and his propensity to ally with anyone who's an enemy of his enemy*?

    (*the UK)

    The Tories have just neutralised buddying up with Irish extremists!
    Whatever their faults, the DUP are not implicated in the murder of British soldiers and police officers
    (£) "... As the column of men approached, a hymn singing crowd of Protestants who had gathered in the main square of the community of Newtownards outside of Belfast grew silent. The militant Protestant leader, the Rev. Ian Paisley, had spoken of the "third force," his shadowy army of vigilantes, and now they appeared out of the night, marching three abreast, in ranks some 5,500 strong. ..."

    http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,953237,00.html
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Scott_P said:

    DanSmith said:

    Not proving as easy as May thought it would.

    How hard is it to sack her SPADs?
    I think it's deeper than that. The Tories know that this whole thing will crash and burn. I'd not be surprised if there wasn't a push to lump Corbyn with the problem and vote down his QS prompting an election under a new leader. May to retire to her husbands hedge fund
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    if Jeremy Corbyn does become PM thanks to Sinn Fein

    Wait, how on earth does that work?
    May can't form a Government with the DUP. She resigns. HMQ sends for Corbyn. He says I can do SNP+PC+Green+SF+Labour minority. LDs give him a shot or abstain.
    Hang on, 326 is the number for a majority even if SF took their seats. Con + DUP has more than 326. So SF is totally irrelevant to this equation. Either way, Con+DUP is a majority, and either way, SNP+PC+Green+Lab(+SF or not) isn't. Or am I missing something?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253

    Mr. Royale, that *might* be a positive for the Conservatives.

    If such people were going to vote Labour anyway, best they do it in an election the blues end up (just) winning. If they return to the Conservatives next time, we might see another rise in blue seats as the poison of the EU referendum has been drawn.

    On the other hand, they may have gotten into the habit of voting Labour. We'll see in five years (or a few months).

    No conclusions can be drawn about the next election.

    The next few years might be a disaster, and the Conservatives turn in on themselves, or they make real progress, and people see how close a bloody shave they had this year with the spotlight put more closely on Corbyn.

    We simply don't know.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    @RobDotHutton: Graham Brady, asked about May's Downing St statement: "I think the PM might be doing some more broadcasting this evening."

    KABOOM
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Looks like my derided forecast about Sinn Fein taking up their seats might come true!?

    Maybe Corbyn can just, I don't know, invite them in?
    They don't have to take their seats, they can just send a coded message saying they're about to bomb somewhere whenever Jez is struggling to defeat the Govt in the HofC
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    Alistair said:

    Anyone got a YouGov-to-Reality comparison chart?

    There was a great one posted last night. Not sure I can stomach going through the threads again though lol.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    edited June 2017
    DanSmith said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Reshuffle now expected tomorrow

    Not proving as easy as May thought it would.
    She either brings in some big gun remainers (not Soubry, I think she's gone too far; Nick Herbert perhaps), signals early on public services, and shows she is open and listening and, critically, has learned from events. Or hunkers down with an inner coterie x2.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    DanSmith said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Reshuffle now expected tomorrow

    Not proving as easy as May thought it would.
    Possibly some ministers deciding to sit the next six weeks out? I certainly wouldn't blame them!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    Scott_P said:

    @RobDotHutton: Graham Brady, asked about May's Downing St statement: "I think the PM might be doing some more broadcasting this evening."

    The die is cast....
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    if Jeremy Corbyn does become PM thanks to Sinn Fein

    Wait, how on earth does that work?
    May can't form a Government with the DUP. She resigns. HMQ sends for Corbyn. He says I can do SNP+PC+Green+SF+Labour minority. LDs give him a shot or abstain.
    Hang on, 326 is the number for a majority even if SF took their seats. Con + DUP has more than 326. So SF is totally irrelevant to this equation. Either way, Con+DUP is a majority, and either way, SNP+PC+Green+Lab(+SF or not) isn't. Or am I missing something?
    no i think coalition of chaos is only 315, tories can vote against queens speech a force another general election cant they?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @RobDotHutton: Graham Brady, asked about May's Downing St statement: "I think the PM might be doing some more broadcasting this evening."

    KABOOM
    Sounds like shes....~TOAST
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253

    if Jeremy Corbyn does become PM thanks to Sinn Fein

    Wait, how on earth does that work?
    May can't form a Government with the DUP. She resigns. HMQ sends for Corbyn. He says I can do SNP+PC+Green+SF+Labour minority. LDs give him a shot or abstain.
    Hang on, 326 is the number for a majority even if SF took their seats. Con + DUP has more than 326. So SF is totally irrelevant to this equation. Either way, Con+DUP is a majority, and either way, SNP+PC+Green+Lab(+SF or not) isn't. Or am I missing something?
    It depends on Con + DUP failing, and the Tories failing to recommend an instant replacement that works.

    Corbyn would be leader of a minority government.

    That doesn't mean that it couldn't happen, nor that the Tories would be wise to bring him down over every vote, and risk another early election where they become the "blame" and lose in it very, very badly.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @RobDotHutton: Graham Brady, asked about May's Downing St statement: "I think the PM might be doing some more broadcasting this evening."

    The die is cast....
    Woah.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: In case you were wondering.... Sinn Fein didn't announce that they are going to take their seats

    Good to know there are some constants in this universe.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    Scott_P said:

    DanSmith said:

    Not proving as easy as May thought it would.

    How hard is it to sack her SPADs?
    I think it's deeper than that. The Tories know that this whole thing will crash and burn. I'd not be surprised if there wasn't a push to lump Corbyn with the problem and vote down his QS prompting an election under a new leader. May to retire to her husbands hedge fund
    do the tories have the mechanism to get a new leader in place quickly?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @RobDotHutton: BREAKING: May gives interview. Big news is that she's noticed the election result.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    if Jeremy Corbyn does become PM thanks to Sinn Fein

    Wait, how on earth does that work?
    May can't form a Government with the DUP. She resigns. HMQ sends for Corbyn. He says I can do SNP+PC+Green+SF+Labour minority. LDs give him a shot or abstain.
    Hang on, 326 is the number for a majority even if SF took their seats. Con + DUP has more than 326. So SF is totally irrelevant to this equation. Either way, Con+DUP is a majority, and either way, SNP+PC+Green+Lab(+SF or not) isn't. Or am I missing something?
    CON + DUP only gets you 328, even with arch rebels like Morgan and Soubry included in that number. Weak, weak, weak.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    May is really crap, she's repeating two or three phrases over and over.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144

    if Jeremy Corbyn does become PM thanks to Sinn Fein

    Wait, how on earth does that work?
    May can't form a Government with the DUP. She resigns. HMQ sends for Corbyn. He says I can do SNP+PC+Green+SF+Labour minority. LDs give him a shot or abstain.
    Hang on, 326 is the number for a majority even if SF took their seats. Con + DUP has more than 326. So SF is totally irrelevant to this equation. Either way, Con+DUP is a majority, and either way, SNP+PC+Green+Lab(+SF or not) isn't. Or am I missing something?
    CON + DUP only gets you 328, even with arch rebels like Morgan and Soubry included in that number. Weak, weak, weak.
    Yep, but doubt they'd vote down a QS.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,982

    Mr. Nabavi, not to mention that throwing away austerity and no mention of economic reality from the Conservatives meant there was no attacking of Labour's free unicorns for everyone (two on Sundays).

    Mr.D. - it appears that Hamilton has got on top of tyre problems, & is fastest in P1.
    Any thoughts yet (other than your audacious no safety car punt) ?
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    will labour have enough cash to fight another GE straight away?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    if Jeremy Corbyn does become PM thanks to Sinn Fein

    Wait, how on earth does that work?
    May can't form a Government with the DUP. She resigns. HMQ sends for Corbyn. He says I can do SNP+PC+Green+SF+Labour minority. LDs give him a shot or abstain.
    Hang on, 326 is the number for a majority even if SF took their seats. Con + DUP has more than 326. So SF is totally irrelevant to this equation. Either way, Con+DUP is a majority, and either way, SNP+PC+Green+Lab(+SF or not) isn't. Or am I missing something?
    CON + DUP only gets you 328, even with arch rebels like Morgan and Soubry included in that number. Weak, weak, weak.
    Hoey held her seat!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @IsabelOakeshott: May very belatedly says sorry to Tory MPs. Putting a brave face on it but looks devastated.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,768



    Yes, I think we understand you will forgive Corbyn/McDonnell everything because they won.

    It's a shame you're not more principled than that, but hey ho. I guess the colours of the football team are too strong a draw.

    There you go again. Nothing can shake your near religious certainty.

    For me the calculation in this election that a Tory party with carte blanche to deliver no-deal or hard brexit was more of a risk to me and my family than what Corbyn said 30 years ago.

    I don't on agree with Corbyn on many things. FWIW I have many more concerns about McDonnell.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111

    if Jeremy Corbyn does become PM thanks to Sinn Fein

    Wait, how on earth does that work?
    May can't form a Government with the DUP. She resigns. HMQ sends for Corbyn. He says I can do SNP+PC+Green+SF+Labour minority. LDs give him a shot or abstain.
    Hang on, 326 is the number for a majority even if SF took their seats. Con + DUP has more than 326. So SF is totally irrelevant to this equation. Either way, Con+DUP is a majority, and either way, SNP+PC+Green+Lab(+SF or not) isn't. Or am I missing something?
    CON + DUP only gets you 328, even with arch rebels like Morgan and Soubry included in that number. Weak, weak, weak.
    Can you see whatever number it is of Cons wanting another election? With FTPA they need go nowhere.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    if Jeremy Corbyn does become PM thanks to Sinn Fein

    Wait, how on earth does that work?
    May can't form a Government with the DUP. She resigns. HMQ sends for Corbyn. He says I can do SNP+PC+Green+SF+Labour minority. LDs give him a shot or abstain.
    Hang on, 326 is the number for a majority even if SF took their seats. Con + DUP has more than 326. So SF is totally irrelevant to this equation. Either way, Con+DUP is a majority, and either way, SNP+PC+Green+Lab(+SF or not) isn't. Or am I missing something?
    CON + DUP only gets you 328, even with arch rebels like Morgan and Soubry included in that number. Weak, weak, weak.
    Yeah, I'm certainly not saying it's a stable majority. I'm just struggling to see where SF realistically enters the equation
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,636

    if Jeremy Corbyn does become PM thanks to Sinn Fein

    Wait, how on earth does that work?
    May can't form a Government with the DUP. She resigns. HMQ sends for Corbyn. He says I can do SNP+PC+Green+SF+Labour minority. LDs give him a shot or abstain.
    Hang on, 326 is the number for a majority even if SF took their seats. Con + DUP has more than 326. So SF is totally irrelevant to this equation. Either way, Con+DUP is a majority, and either way, SNP+PC+Green+Lab(+SF or not) isn't. Or am I missing something?
    CON + DUP only gets you 328, even with arch rebels like Morgan and Soubry included in that number. Weak, weak, weak.
    So what do you propose?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    Scott_P said:

    @IsabelOakeshott: May very belatedly says sorry to Tory MPs. Putting a brave face on it but looks devastated.

    I've started feeling sorry for her. It's totally over.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,768
    edited June 2017
    She loves saying the word 'important'. aarrgghh
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253
    Having totally misunderstood stop-loss (it's 200 times *your stake*, not a £200 limit) I'm now sitting on a loss of £540 on the spreads, and a gain of £560 on my other bets.

    £20 up.

    What a waste of time!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Prodicus said:
    If that happens the country is screwed. May should have gone this morning.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,234
    Just seen May on SKY.....still holding statement - she looks shattered.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    if Jeremy Corbyn does become PM thanks to Sinn Fein

    Wait, how on earth does that work?
    May can't form a Government with the DUP. She resigns. HMQ sends for Corbyn. He says I can do SNP+PC+Green+SF+Labour minority. LDs give him a shot or abstain.
    Hang on, 326 is the number for a majority even if SF took their seats. Con + DUP has more than 326. So SF is totally irrelevant to this equation. Either way, Con+DUP is a majority, and either way, SNP+PC+Green+Lab(+SF or not) isn't. Or am I missing something?
    CON + DUP only gets you 328, even with arch rebels like Morgan and Soubry included in that number. Weak, weak, weak.
    Yeah, I'm certainly not saying it's a stable majority. I'm just struggling to see where SF realistically enters the equation
    Them taking their seats reduces the amount of defections/byelection defeats required to bring down the government. By my maths if three of those happen, then the CON-DUP coalition of chaos falls. Given that they are relying on Soubry and Morgan I wouldn't be too confident of it lasting very long!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    Scott_P said:

    @RobDotHutton: Graham Brady, asked about May's Downing St statement: "I think the PM might be doing some more broadcasting this evening."

    Scott_P said:

    @IsabelOakeshott: May very belatedly says sorry to Tory MPs. Putting a brave face on it but looks devastated.


    For the love of god why doesn't she just resign! It can't carry on like this...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253
    Jonathan said:



    Yes, I think we understand you will forgive Corbyn/McDonnell everything because they won.

    It's a shame you're not more principled than that, but hey ho. I guess the colours of the football team are too strong a draw.

    There you go again. Nothing can shake your near religious certainty.

    For me the calculation in this election that a Tory party with carte blanche to deliver no-deal or hard brexit was more of a risk to me and my family than what Corbyn said 30 years ago.

    I don't on agree with Corbyn on many things. FWIW I have many more concerns about McDonnell.
    It's not religion. It's a fact mate.

    And I think we all know you'll always vote for the red rosette over a blue rosette. So, please drop the floating voter spiel.

    It's a shame your party is so spineless. I hope there are a few in it who still have the guts and ability to stand up to the Hard Left, but I'm not holding my breath.

    God help us.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253
    Scott_P said:

    @RobDotHutton: BREAKING: May gives interview. Big news is that she's noticed the election result.

    Ha.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @WikiGuido: May doesn't deny her negotiating has been weakened, won't say if she believes her government can last 5 years, won't say if sacking aides.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BethRigby: As senior ministers said earlier - no mandate to shuffle them about. 10 ministerial jobs need filling though after… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/873201447474737157
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Having totally misunderstood stop-loss (it's 200 times *your stake*, not a £200 limit) I'm now sitting on a loss of £540 on the spreads, and a gain of £560 on my other bets.

    £20 up.

    What a waste of time!

    A profit is a profit, Casino! It could have been a hell of a lot worse!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    It is very noticeable how not one senior member of the Tories bar IDS has said a single word on May's future.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    edited June 2017

    Having totally misunderstood stop-loss (it's 200 times *your stake*, not a £200 limit) I'm now sitting on a loss of £540 on the spreads, and a gain of £560 on my other bets.

    £20 up.

    What a waste of time!

    Ouch!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253

    Having totally misunderstood stop-loss (it's 200 times *your stake*, not a £200 limit) I'm now sitting on a loss of £540 on the spreads, and a gain of £560 on my other bets.

    £20 up.

    What a waste of time!

    A profit is a profit, Casino! It could have been a hell of a lot worse!
    I needed the money, quite frankly. I got greedy and paid the price.

    I really do wish "life" would stop trying to teach me 'lessons'.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @RobDotHutton: Graham Brady, asked about May's Downing St statement: "I think the PM might be doing some more broadcasting this evening."

    KABOOM
    Sounds like shes....~TOAST
    I'm guessing it's just to undo the Brownian speech from earlier and smooth some of the massive internal 'upset' on the losses rather than anything more serious... for now,
  • spire2spire2 Posts: 183
    Next year now favourite fir next election. (Not much money in market though)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BethRigby: Brady, chair 1922: Think most colleagues thought it would be better result... but no appetite to change the leader #GE2017
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. B, I hope it's not audacious, just boring and sensible.

    So far I'm just thinking it's best not to read too much into things. Worth noting Hamilton does have a very good record at the circuit, so if it's all square he's got the best chance of winning.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726

    I commented on that possibility on here last night. Could be an interesting move.
    Kind of pointless as long as May can get a majority with the DUP
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Brady, chair 1922: Think most colleagues thought it would be better result... but no appetite to change the leader #GE2017

    Weak & pathetic from Con. Ever increasing Lab leads in the polls coming on.

    Still haven't heard from Boris...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2017
    Holding this GE was the morally correct thing to do IMO, even though I don't think that's why TM called it. Dave left the country in a hole. If only he had been man enough to put his ego to one side in the national interest. If she is replaced, we will be back to square one, a PM without a mandate
  • JPKJPK Posts: 1
    Hi folks. Hope you're all recovering. Just taking a dip from lurking to put my two cents out there.

    May is going to find out the DUP are tricky customers. After Power Sharing, they get transactional politics in a way the Tories don't. Expect last minute demands for investment in infrastructure in all the right places in NI. Above delivering Brexit, above keeping out Corbyn - the DUP, as with all NI parties has an overriding objective of proving they deliver for 'the community'. They won't have any qualms about letting the Tories down when they need them most. In fact it's probably be a vote winner with the folks back home. The Tories will miss the good old days with the Lib Dems.

    On the betting front - just spotted Skybet are offering 1/100 on TM as PM after the election. Based on my reading of the terms (being invited to form a Government by HM) - hasn't this *already* happened? More a curiosity than anything as it seems an odd market to keep up. On a similar note they're still offering 1/10 on a Con minority government. The DUP aren't getting cabinet posts.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,234
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @RobDotHutton: Graham Brady, asked about May's Downing St statement: "I think the PM might be doing some more broadcasting this evening."

    Scott_P said:

    @IsabelOakeshott: May very belatedly says sorry to Tory MPs. Putting a brave face on it but looks devastated.


    For the love of god why doesn't she just resign! It can't carry on like this...
    Resign as what?

    PM?

    Leader of the Conservatives?


  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2017
    On a happier note, and talking of tips for yesterday, I do hope that at least someone here followed my tip and went to the Wigmore Hall last night to hear Anna Lucia Richter's Schubert recital. It was, as I had expected, absolutely stunning, and a wonderful way to pass the time before the exit poll appeared.
  • spire2spire2 Posts: 183
    Hmmm a likely story
    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Brady, chair 1922: Think most colleagues thought it would be better result... but no appetite to change the leader #GE2017

  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    if Jeremy Corbyn does become PM thanks to Sinn Fein

    Wait, how on earth does that work?
    May can't form a Government with the DUP. She resigns. HMQ sends for Corbyn. He says I can do SNP+PC+Green+SF+Labour minority. LDs give him a shot or abstain.
    Hang on, 326 is the number for a majority even if SF took their seats. Con + DUP has more than 326. So SF is totally irrelevant to this equation. Either way, Con+DUP is a majority, and either way, SNP+PC+Green+Lab(+SF or not) isn't. Or am I missing something?
    CON + DUP only gets you 328, even with arch rebels like Morgan and Soubry included in that number. Weak, weak, weak.
    So what do you propose?
    That the Tory left defects and crosses the floor as Progressive Conservatives obviously! Wollaston becomes PM.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Chameleon said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Brady, chair 1922: Think most colleagues thought it would be better result... but no appetite to change the leader #GE2017

    Weak & pathetic from Con. Ever increasing Lab leads in the polls coming on.

    Still haven't heard from Boris...
    He does seem to run and hide when the going gets tough. Gove seems to be conspicuous by his absence as well....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Brady, chair 1922: Think most colleagues thought it would be better result... but no appetite to change the leader #GE2017

    I despair
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,768
    edited June 2017

    Jonathan said:



    Yes, I think we understand you will forgive Corbyn/McDonnell everything because they won.

    It's a shame you're not more principled than that, but hey ho. I guess the colours of the football team are too strong a draw.

    There you go again. Nothing can shake your near religious certainty.

    For me the calculation in this election that a Tory party with carte blanche to deliver no-deal or hard brexit was more of a risk to me and my family than what Corbyn said 30 years ago.

    I don't on agree with Corbyn on many things. FWIW I have many more concerns about McDonnell.
    It's not religion. It's a fact mate.

    And I think we all know you'll always vote for the red rosette over a blue rosette. So, please drop the floating voter spiel.

    It's a shame your party is so spineless. I hope there are a few in it who still have the guts and ability to stand up to the Hard Left, but I'm not holding my breath.

    God help us.
    I'd happily vote for Ken Clarke. Does that count?

    But I don't agree with the values or ethos of conservatism or most of your recent policies - so a Tory vote is very unlikely. That's ok.

    Whereas the programme of Labour at this election had interesting things that I care about, like tuition fees and Labours position on Brexit was far superior to your party. Your view on Corbyn was one dimensional and blinded you to other things that you might have reacted to.

    Nothing to do with 'spines' or 'guts'. Just a different views. Again that's ok.

    IMO the risk of the so-called hard-left was overstated and mitigated by the fact that in our constitution legislation is passed by the PLP.

    I disagree with you. Again that's ok.

  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    I get why they won't commit regicide right now, if there wasn't Brexit negotiations in 10 days time it would have happened. Have to put the country first right now.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Bedford declaration:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmN_wJ0E-Gg
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,283
    isam said:

    Holding this GE was the morally correct thing to do IMO, even though I don't think that's why TM called it. Dave left the country in a hole. If only he had been man enough to put his ego to one side in the national interest. If she is replaced, we will be back to square one, a PM without a mandate

    We had a post about A Level Politics questions about direct democracy and how wise it is to use it. I think if a government is going to do it, they should set out how they would govern in the event of either outcome. That didn't happen last year and it's a big reason why we are where we are.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Having totally misunderstood stop-loss (it's 200 times *your stake*, not a £200 limit) I'm now sitting on a loss of £540 on the spreads, and a gain of £560 on my other bets.

    £20 up.

    What a waste of time!

    Would you rather be £20 down? ;)
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    jonny83 said:

    I get why they won't commit regicide right now, if there wasn't Brexit negotiations in 10 days time it would have happened. Have to put the country first right now.

    Same, I'm really confused at what the Con MP gameplan is. I think the the MPs are just scared and confused right now.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    Chameleon said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Brady, chair 1922: Think most colleagues thought it would be better result... but no appetite to change the leader #GE2017

    Weak & pathetic from Con. Ever increasing Lab leads in the polls coming on.

    Still haven't heard from Boris...
    The whats? The polls?

    *guffaw*
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    TOPPING said:

    Chameleon said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Brady, chair 1922: Think most colleagues thought it would be better result... but no appetite to change the leader #GE2017

    Weak & pathetic from Con. Ever increasing Lab leads in the polls coming on.

    Still haven't heard from Boris...
    The whats? The polls?

    *guffaw*
    Yes, we only trust YouGov models here. :D
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,234
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Brady, chair 1922: Think most colleagues thought it would be better result... but no appetite to change the leader #GE2017

    I despair
    Fear not. It's always like this until 'The King is dead!' 'Long Live the King!'
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @RobDotHutton: Graham Brady, asked about May's Downing St statement: "I think the PM might be doing some more broadcasting this evening."

    Scott_P said:

    @IsabelOakeshott: May very belatedly says sorry to Tory MPs. Putting a brave face on it but looks devastated.


    For the love of god why doesn't she just resign! It can't carry on like this...
    Resign as what?

    PM?

    Leader of the Conservatives?


    Leader of Tory Party (Obviously she's have to stay on as PM until a new Con leader is found... But her position is untennable - Anyone who doesn't see that is mad)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253

    Having totally misunderstood stop-loss (it's 200 times *your stake*, not a £200 limit) I'm now sitting on a loss of £540 on the spreads, and a gain of £560 on my other bets.

    £20 up.

    What a waste of time!

    Would you rather be £20 down? ;)
    I put a lot of effort into selecting the bets, a few of which paid off handsomely, and then greedily sold Labour at 207 at 8.30pm last night costing me £500.

    Idiot!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Brady, chair 1922: Think most colleagues thought it would be better result... but no appetite to change the leader #GE2017

    I despair
    The country probably needs a bit of stability for at least a few months. They can always change the leader later in the year if they want to.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    TOPPING said:

    Chameleon said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Brady, chair 1922: Think most colleagues thought it would be better result... but no appetite to change the leader #GE2017

    Weak & pathetic from Con. Ever increasing Lab leads in the polls coming on.

    Still haven't heard from Boris...
    The whats? The polls?

    *guffaw*
    Polls were nearly bang on before the pollsters tried playing around with the numbers.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    edited June 2017
    jonny83 said:

    I get why they won't commit regicide right now, if there wasn't Brexit negotiations in 10 days time it would have happened. Have to put the country first right now.

    Because a Tory leadership contest takes 2-3 months.

    I suspect they are hoping they might magic circle it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    JPK said:

    Hi folks. Hope you're all recovering. Just taking a dip from lurking to put my two cents out there.

    May is going to find out the DUP are tricky customers. After Power Sharing, they get transactional politics in a way the Tories don't. Expect last minute demands for investment in infrastructure in all the right places in NI. Above delivering Brexit, above keeping out Corbyn - the DUP, as with all NI parties has an overriding objective of proving they deliver for 'the community'. They won't have any qualms about letting the Tories down when they need them most. In fact it's probably be a vote winner with the folks back home. The Tories will miss the good old days with the Lib Dems.

    On the betting front - just spotted Skybet are offering 1/100 on TM as PM after the election. Based on my reading of the terms (being invited to form a Government by HM) - hasn't this *already* happened? More a curiosity than anything as it seems an odd market to keep up. On a similar note they're still offering 1/10 on a Con minority government. The DUP aren't getting cabinet posts.

    Thanks v keen you don't re-lurk; pls keep us up to date on the state of play re. Cons & DUP.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253
    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Brady, chair 1922: Think most colleagues thought it would be better result... but no appetite to change the leader #GE2017

    Oh.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    Holding this GE was the morally correct thing to do IMO, even though I don't think that's why TM called it. Dave left the country in a hole. If only he had been man enough to put his ego to one side in the national interest. If she is replaced, we will be back to square one, a PM without a mandate

    We had a post about A Level Politics questions about direct democracy and how wise it is to use it. I think if a government is going to do it, they should set out how they would govern in the event of either outcome. That didn't happen last year and it's a big reason why we are where we are.
    Remarkable that a PM would allow a referendum and make no plans for one of the results other than to fuck off! He has damaged the country so much.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    £5 that all these 'senior Tory' sources are Boris & his one or two cronies.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    if Jeremy Corbyn does become PM thanks to Sinn Fein

    Wait, how on earth does that work?
    May can't form a Government with the DUP. She resigns. HMQ sends for Corbyn. He says I can do SNP+PC+Green+SF+Labour minority. LDs give him a shot or abstain.
    Hang on, 326 is the number for a majority even if SF took their seats. Con + DUP has more than 326. So SF is totally irrelevant to this equation. Either way, Con+DUP is a majority, and either way, SNP+PC+Green+Lab(+SF or not) isn't. Or am I missing something?
    CON + DUP only gets you 328, even with arch rebels like Morgan and Soubry included in that number. Weak, weak, weak.
    But as long as Corbyn and McDonnell are running the Labour Party, even the most left-wing Tory MPs wouldn't do anything to risk them getting near office. If Labour had more moderate leaders it might be different.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111

    TOPPING said:

    Chameleon said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Brady, chair 1922: Think most colleagues thought it would be better result... but no appetite to change the leader #GE2017

    Weak & pathetic from Con. Ever increasing Lab leads in the polls coming on.

    Still haven't heard from Boris...
    The whats? The polls?

    *guffaw*
    Polls were nearly bang on before the pollsters tried playing around with the numbers.
    Before they did this, that or the other. And yet that's what they did.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Chameleon said:

    jonny83 said:

    I get why they won't commit regicide right now, if there wasn't Brexit negotiations in 10 days time it would have happened. Have to put the country first right now.

    Same, I'm really confused at what the Con MP gameplan is. I think the the MPs are just scared and confused right now.
    They will be in complete chaos. I don't think we should expect a coherent gameplan yet.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Looking at the swing in England from Con -> Lab (of 3%) and the target list, and I think that the Tories lost about twice as many seats as UNS would have predicted.

    If I recall correctly, the Tories were said to have outperformed UNS in 2015 due to their expert targetting. I do not venture a guess as to whether this time it is just chance, the unwind of the good Tory performance in 2015, or expert campaign targetting on Labour's part.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439

    jonny83 said:

    I get why they won't commit regicide right now, if there wasn't Brexit negotiations in 10 days time it would have happened. Have to put the country first right now.

    Because a Tory leadership contest takes 2-3 months.

    Well it doesn't have to take that long?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,234
    Chameleon said:

    £5 that all these 'senior Tory' sources are Boris & his one or two cronies.
    Or they are a new hire at the Evening Standard...
  • Listening to the May interview - by-enlarge she still doesn't answer questions and is treating it like she's still on the campaign.

    If there was ever a time to be straightforward and just be honest this would be it, but she seems totally unable to do this.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Having totally misunderstood stop-loss (it's 200 times *your stake*, not a £200 limit) I'm now sitting on a loss of £540 on the spreads, and a gain of £560 on my other bets.

    £20 up.

    What a waste of time!

    Would you rather be £20 down? ;)
    I put a lot of effort into selecting the bets, a few of which paid off handsomely, and then greedily sold Labour at 207 at 8.30pm last night costing me £500.

    Idiot!
    Maybe you should resign as a bettor and await the betting industry selecting your successor? :D:D
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,727
    If Malcolm g is around, could you please pay our wager of £20 to Keech Hospice, in Luton.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    calum said:
    Photoshopped picture surely – a spoof.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    GIN1138 said:

    jonny83 said:

    I get why they won't commit regicide right now, if there wasn't Brexit negotiations in 10 days time it would have happened. Have to put the country first right now.

    Because a Tory leadership contest takes 2-3 months.

    Well it doesn't have to take that long?
    They could make it very short. 1 week for nominations, then a vote, 1 day, next vote, 1 day... so on, then a 1 week voting period for the general membership. Could be done in 3 weeks relatively comfortably.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    I'm curious - is ANYBODY happy with the outcome of the election?

    I kind of am, actually. Corbyn won't become PM any time soon and we have a second chance at an EEA/EFTA type arrangement after the moderate Remainers threw away the first one last autumn.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    TOPPING said:

    Chameleon said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Brady, chair 1922: Think most colleagues thought it would be better result... but no appetite to change the leader #GE2017

    Weak & pathetic from Con. Ever increasing Lab leads in the polls coming on.

    Still haven't heard from Boris...
    The whats? The polls?

    *guffaw*
    Short for "byelection polling stations"
This discussion has been closed.