You would think the sun thought Corbyn had a chance.
No, they will expose his flaws, Relentlessly.
It wouldn't surprise me if they did a wrap around on election day itself.
I certainly expect to see tactical voting advice and the like in the mail, express and sun. In 2015, they had tactical voting against Labour in the Daily Mail and the Sun.
I thought they both had for the last two years.They would have been better mocking him in a dad's army Sgt Wilson pacifist way .Than saying he is the anti Christ. People have seen an old man who likes gardening on an allotment on the TV .
Swing Lab to Con since GE2015 (average of last three polls)
GB: 2% Lab marginals: 7% Lab safe seats: 7% Con safe seats: 0% Con marginals: -1%
The usual caveats about small subsamples apply, although worth noting that the sample sizes for Con safe seats were c. 600-700, and Lab safe seats c. 300-400, so not too bad.
The above, if true, would imply an extraordinary efficiency in the Con vote.
Not sure The Mail should have featured Dianne. To most people she's that quaintly eccentric leftie who spent many years cuddling up on a sofa with Michael 'Who Dares Wins" Portillo - hardly the stuff of nightmares. Still, I'm sure Mr Dacre knows his audience.
She's black and therefore she's a suitable hate target
Oh gods, not this again. She's incompetent, arrogant, has had several high profile gaps and Labour is officially saying she should be in charge of the police - I don't doubt racists read the paper and that she gets attacked by racists, but there's so many good reasons for her to be included alongside McDonnell and Corbyn, as she truly has been one of the most prominent (I think we've seen more of her than McDonnell, frankly).
Swing Lab to Con since GE2015 (average of last three polls)
GB: 2% Lab marginals: 7% Lab safe seats: 7% Con safe seats: 0% Con marginals: -1%
The usual caveats about small subsamples apply, although worth noting that the sample sizes for Con safe seats were c. 600-700, and Lab safe seats c. 300-400, so not too bad.
The above, if true, would imply an extraordinary efficiency in the Con vote.
They managed it last time, can they be so lucky once again, even if they overall share remains similar?
Not sure The Mail should have featured Dianne. To most people she's that quaintly eccentric leftie who spent many years cuddling up on a sofa with Michael 'Who Dares Wins" Portillo - hardly the stuff of nightmares. Still, I'm sure Mr Dacre knows his audience.
She should have stayed on This Week.
Her and Portillo were a great duo.
Portillo also sounded a lot more reasonable back then. Now he may as well be a parrot for CCHQ.
Rubbish. Portillo is as independent a Tory as you can get.
It should be noted that Newsnight also returned to a Bishop Auckland working mens club they visited at the start of the campaign and found May still holding up relatively well.
Labour 3,500 majority there in 2015. UKIP got 7,000 votes.
What will be interesting is if the mail put their front page article really prominently on their website. Remember it is one of the world's most visited websites and especially among middle class centre / centre left ladies who go for the gossip / celebrity tittle tattle.
Not sure The Mail should have featured Dianne. To most people she's that quaintly eccentric leftie who spent many years cuddling up on a sofa with Michael 'Who Dares Wins" Portillo - hardly the stuff of nightmares. Still, I'm sure Mr Dacre knows his audience.
You would think the sun thought Corbyn had a chance.
No, they will expose his flaws, Relentlessly.
It wouldn't surprise me if they did a wrap around on election day itself.
I certainly expect to see tactical voting advice and the like in the mail, express and sun. In 2015, they had tactical voting against Labour in the Daily Mail and the Sun.
I thought they both had for the last two years.They would have been better mocking him in a dad's army Sgt Wilson pacifist way .Than saying he is the anti Christ. People have seen an old man who likes gardening on an allotment on the TV .
I don't think they ever quite settled on whether he was supposed to be dangerous or a laughable figure - but as he has become a lot more credible over the last weeks, dangerous was probably decided on as resonating better than it might once have done I presume.
Problem with the Mail's attack is that they do this kind of thing with even the most slightly left of centre politicians. They are the equivalent of american 'SJWs' calling everyone on the right nazis, then finding that their labelling of Trump as a nazi didn't really cut through. I'm sure they labelled Blair a marxist, or soft on terror, many a time during his tenure.
If, for example, the Times, or the FT went with a leader accusing them of being terror apologists, you would be inclined to take it a bit more seriously.
Well that doesn't exactly leave a lot to the imagination does it??
But why have they been keeping it a secret for so long?
It could be Tory panic or it could be with the terrorist attacks / unhelpful half term dates means this best time to drop it.
From my experience I usually find that negative stuff like that stick in the mind for 24 - 48 hours and then people (I do) forget about it. So, it is perfect timing. You don't use your best negative weeks before the election, you wait for optimum effect, which is Thursday when 80% of voters who turn out cast their ballot.
The Mail has all cannons firing. And firing. And firing. Pics of bloody IRA victims, JC at CND rally, JC not singing the National Anthem, Hamas 'friends' with rocket launchers, Gerry Adams huddled with JC, more bomb victims.... anti-police stuff, immigration stuff... all in one long, long article. Bloody hell.
I have never seen anything like it.
I'd assume most of its readership wasn't planning to vote Labour anyway (though with so many readers, it probably still comes down to quite a few who were), so a very extreme way of telling people it is a duty to vote against the man I guess.
This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.
What are they saying?
Mainly pro-Corbyn and anti-May.
WHat do you reckon to it - representative ?
I spoke to at least 10-15 voters in Walsall tonight, they virtually all preferred May to Corbyn, including several longtime Labour voters. This 'Focus Group' was probably as balanced as the BBC Question Time Audience! Andy Street even won Walsall in the WM Mayor election
I think a better attack would have been big front page splash with milne and other advisors...Then it forces jezza to defend him in some way, then follow up with McDonnell, forces jezza again to say something, then do jezza.
What we have seen in the past is when the media have put the pressure on is when he loses it.
It should be noted that Newsnight also returned to a Bishop Auckland working mens club they visited at the start of the campaign and found May still holding up relatively well.
Labour 3,500 majority there in 2015. UKIP got 7,000 votes.
Old college pal is the candidate up there. He might well have a chance.
"If you doubt what the Mail is saying, turn to Pages 4-7 where we catalogue quote after quote by this deadly troika, in which they damn themselves out of their own mouths."
This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.
What are they saying?
Mainly pro-Corbyn and anti-May.
WHat do you reckon to it - representative ?
I spoke to at least 10-15 voters in Walsall tonight, they virtually all preferred May to Corbyn, including several longtime Labour voters. This 'Focus Group' was probably as balanced as the BBC Question Time Audience! Andy Street even won Walsall in the WM Mayor election
Well they seemed to be able to find plenty of May fans in their pieces at the start of the campaign.
Not sure The Mail should have featured Dianne. To most people she's that quaintly eccentric leftie who spent many years cuddling up on a sofa with Michael 'Who Dares Wins" Portillo - hardly the stuff of nightmares. Still, I'm sure Mr Dacre knows his audience.
She should have stayed on This Week.
Her and Portillo were a great duo.
Portillo also sounded a lot more reasonable back then. Now he may as well be a parrot for CCHQ.
Rubbish. Portillo is as independent a Tory as you can get.
It's interesting what some politicians say after they've retired or when they are announcing their retirement. For some it's as if a small spark of decency that previously wasn't apparent to anyone has become evident. The same is true for Robin Cook. Credit is due to both him and Michael Portillo. Even Dwight Eisenhower denounced the "military industrial complex". One politician for whom this DIDN'T happen - who on the contrary made a farewell speech that was a vile paean to the weapons of megadeath industry - was Paddy Ashdown.
It should be noted that Newsnight also returned to a Bishop Auckland working mens club they visited at the start of the campaign and found May still holding up relatively well.
Labour 3,500 majority there in 2015. UKIP got 7,000 votes.
Problem with the Mail's attack is that they do this kind of thing with even the most slightly left of centre politicians. They are the equivalent of american 'SJWs' calling everyone on the right nazis, then finding that their labelling of Trump as a nazi didn't really cut through. I'm sure they labelled Blair a marxist, or soft on terror, many a time during his tenure.
If, for example, the Times, or the FT went with a leader accusing them of being terror apologists, you would be inclined to take it a bit more seriously.
+1. In Mail land, anyone even moderately centre-left is a 'threat to Britain'.
From my experience I usually find that negative stuff like that stick in the mind for 24 - 48 hours and then people (I do) forget about it. So, it is perfect timing. You don't use your best negative weeks before the election, you wait for optimum effect, which is Thursday when 80% of voters who turn out cast their ballot.
Indeed. Shouldn't come as a surprise, the Tories said that's exactly what they did last time. Final week big guns, and it was always going to be this.
Let us be clear. We have no doubt that Mr Corbyn’s expressions of horror over the atrocities in Manchester and at London Bridge, and his sympathy for the victims and their families, were sincere.
But the ineluctable truth is that the Labour leader and his closest associates have spent their careers cosying up to those who hate our country, while pouring scorn on the police and security services and opposing anti-terror legislation over and over and over again
Ineluctable? This paper is classier than i realised.
True, the Conservative campaign has not been flawless and Mrs May will doubtless have learnt from the experience.
Just wait for the Exit poll with Jezza ahead!
Not an entrancing prospect. Look, if he gets smashed, maybe the LDs will get another go at trying to become the main opposition, like Farron said was the goal in the manifesto.
Well, whatever the fates of the two main parties, I think it's safe to assume the Lib Dem MPs will be able to squeeze into a couple of taxis without too much discomfort.
And it's not as though they will make up for the lack of numbers by outstanding quality. Somehow I don't think we'll ever see Tim Farron as Leader of the Opposition.
The Mail has all cannons firing. And firing. And firing. Pics of bloody IRA victims, JC at CND rally, JC not singing the National Anthem, Hamas 'friends' with rocket launchers, Gerry Adams huddled with JC, more bomb victims.... anti-police stuff, immigration stuff... all in one long, long article. Bloody hell.
I have never seen anything like it.
I'd assume most of its readership wasn't planning to vote Labour anyway (though with so many readers, it probably still comes down to quite a few who were), so a very extreme way of telling people it is a duty to vote against the man I guess.
People miss important fact about daily mail. Despite all the jokes at it from the left & like shy tory syndrome nobody admits to logging on and looking at the sidebar of shane, lots of people who are not at all right wing visit the website. Their viewership is enormous.
This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.
What are they saying?
Mainly pro-Corbyn and anti-May.
WHat do you reckon to it - representative ?
I spoke to at least 10-15 voters in Walsall tonight, they virtually all preferred May to Corbyn, including several longtime Labour voters. This 'Focus Group' was probably as balanced as the BBC Question Time Audience! Andy Street even won Walsall in the WM Mayor election
Push polling gets the answer that you want.
Is Le Pen still leading? this time for the Assembly :-)
It should be noted that Newsnight also returned to a Bishop Auckland working mens club they visited at the start of the campaign and found May still holding up relatively well.
Labour 3,500 majority there in 2015. UKIP got 7,000 votes.
That sounds a bit more like it
BBC sometime during the day did a vox pop from Wales - bunch of pensioners voting tory for first time - one laughing that her dad would be spinning in his grave.
This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.
What are they saying?
Mainly pro-Corbyn and anti-May.
WHat do you reckon to it - representative ?
I spoke to at least 10-15 voters in Walsall tonight, they virtually all preferred May to Corbyn, including several longtime Labour voters. This 'Focus Group' was probably as balanced as the BBC Question Time Audience! Andy Street even won Walsall in the WM Mayor election
Well they seemed to be able to find plenty of May fans in their pieces at the start of the campaign.
They still have in Bishop Auckland tonight by the sound of it, obviously Walsall Tories are keeping their views a bit more to themselves as polling day approaches
The Mail has all cannons firing. And firing. And firing. Pics of bloody IRA victims, JC at CND rally, JC not singing the National Anthem, Hamas 'friends' with rocket launchers, Gerry Adams huddled with JC, more bomb victims.... anti-police stuff, immigration stuff... all in one long, long article. Bloody hell.
I have never seen anything like it.
I'd assume most of its readership wasn't planning to vote Labour anyway (though with so many readers, it probably still comes down to quite a few who were), so a very extreme way of telling people it is a duty to vote against the man I guess.
People miss important fact about daily mail. Despite all the jokes at it from the left & like shy tory syndrome nobody admits to logging on and looking at the sidebar of shane, lots of people who are not at all right wing visit the website. Their viewership is enormous.
The amout of people in my open plan office I see checking it out over lunch - easily the most viewed.
More from the Sun: Corbyn and McDonnell are "bad men who have spent their lives in the company of truly evil people."
Well, the Sun should know all about truly evil people.
The Sun never consorted with anti-Semites, or Hamas, or Hezbollah, or the IRA, or openly longed for the "defeat of the British state".
That is where Corbyn has brought Labour. This party is now obviously inferior, on any moral perspective, to the British tabloid press. Well done Ed "£3" Miliband.
We have had these attacks for weeks, yet the Jezza surge continues.
He is the ultimate teflon candidate. He makes jam.
Indeed. They are loathsome. Jeremy is actually less loathsome than his pals, but, boy, does he choose some dodgy pals.
They deserve all of this, and more
I am sure this time next week we will be laughing at ourselves for letting it cross our minds these fucking imbeciles could be in charge of our country... people aren't that stupid
Swing Lab to Con since GE2015 (average of last three polls)
GB: 2% Lab marginals: 7% Lab safe seats: 7% Con safe seats: 0% Con marginals: -1%
The usual caveats about small subsamples apply, although worth noting that the sample sizes for Con safe seats were c. 600-700, and Lab safe seats c. 300-400, so not too bad.
The above, if true, would imply an extraordinary efficiency in the Con vote.
I'm fairly convinced that the low 40s represents a point of maximum impact on the vote. Anything above I'm suspicious.
More from the Sun: Corbyn and McDonnell are "bad men who have spent their lives in the company of truly evil people."
Well, the Sun should know all about truly evil people.
The Sun never consorted with anti-Semites, or Hamas, or Hezbollah, or the IRA, or openly longed for the "defeat of the British state".
That is where Corbyn has brought Labour. This party is now obviously inferior, on any moral perspective, to the British tabloid press. Well done Ed "£3" Miliband.
What have you got against Hamas that isn't hasbara bullshit?
It should be noted that Newsnight also returned to a Bishop Auckland working mens club they visited at the start of the campaign and found May still holding up relatively well.
Not sure The Mail should have featured Dianne. To most people she's that quaintly eccentric leftie who spent many years cuddling up on a sofa with Michael 'Who Dares Wins" Portillo - hardly the stuff of nightmares. Still, I'm sure Mr Dacre knows his audience.
She should have stayed on This Week.
Her and Portillo were a great duo.
Portillo also sounded a lot more reasonable back then. Now he may as well be a parrot for CCHQ.
Rubbish. Portillo is as independent a Tory as you can get.
"If you doubt what the Mail is saying, turn to Pages 4-7 where we catalogue quote after quote by this deadly troika, in which they damn themselves out of their own mouths."
First 20 articles on Mail website are all politics. 19 of them bad for Labour, the other is a Katie Hopkins opinion piece saying that she's lost confidence in everyone from the Mayor to the PM who are supposed to keep us safe.
More from the Sun: Corbyn and McDonnell are "bad men who have spent their lives in the company of truly evil people."
Well, the Sun should know all about truly evil people.
The Sun never consorted with anti-Semites, or Hamas, or Hezbollah, or the IRA, or openly longed for the "defeat of the British state".
That is where Corbyn has brought Labour. This party is now obviously inferior, on any moral perspective, to the British tabloid press. Well done Ed "£3" Miliband.
We have had these attacks for weeks, yet the Jezza surge continues.
He is the ultimate teflon candidate. He makes jam.
The surge is only happening in politically engaged weirdo poll land
The Mail has all cannons firing. And firing. And firing. Pics of bloody IRA victims, JC at CND rally, JC not singing the National Anthem, Hamas 'friends' with rocket launchers, Gerry Adams huddled with JC, more bomb victims.... anti-police stuff, immigration stuff... all in one long, long article. Bloody hell.
I have never seen anything like it.
I'd assume most of its readership wasn't planning to vote Labour anyway (though with so many readers, it probably still comes down to quite a few who were), so a very extreme way of telling people it is a duty to vote against the man I guess.
People miss important fact about daily mail. Despite all the jokes at it from the left & like shy tory syndrome nobody admits to logging on and looking at the sidebar of shane, lots of people who are not at all right wing visit the website. Their viewership is enormous.
The amout of people in my open plan office I see checking it out over lunch - easily the most viewed.
I remember walking in on a senior academic at a leading university reading it...She told me panicked that she was only on there to download a diet plan that a friend of recommended...
Problem with the Mail's attack is that they do this kind of thing with even the most slightly left of centre politicians. They are the equivalent of american 'SJWs' calling everyone on the right nazis, then finding that their labelling of Trump as a nazi didn't really cut through. I'm sure they labelled Blair a marxist, or soft on terror, many a time during his tenure.
If, for example, the Times, or the FT went with a leader accusing them of being terror apologists, you would be inclined to take it a bit more seriously.
Oh, no. They don't do THIS with any other politicians. Not this.
A propos, and despite the Mail already being, erm, disliked by Coogan and other luvvies, and despite them regarding not being on the Mail's Christmas card list as a badge of lefty honour, they may possibly some day wonder to what extent being associated with the Corbynite, hard left, anti-British faction will affect their own reputations. And gig income. Or maybe I am just hopelessly quaint about that and they are content to be friends of Jezza. In which case, sod 'em.
Let us be clear. We have no doubt that Mr Corbyn’s expressions of horror over the atrocities in Manchester and at London Bridge, and his sympathy for the victims and their families, were sincere.
But the ineluctable truth is that the Labour leader and his closest associates have spent their careers cosying up to those who hate our country, while pouring scorn on the police and security services and opposing anti-terror legislation over and over and over again
Ineluctable? This paper is classier than i realised.
Both the Sun and the Daily Mail are written with skill. I mean the serious articles. Not the vicar gets his leg over or actress from a TV show gets her tits out at a nightclub stuff. Julius Streicher's despicable Der Sturmer rag was composed with skill too.
The country moves one step further into the cack. This did turn out to be the Klan Brexit election after all.
Well that doesn't exactly leave a lot to the imagination does it??
But why have they been keeping it a secret for so long?
Not sure But i do think the terrorist events did throw the cons in particular off balance-we all know about their fabled "Grids" and i do think that has thrown their plans into disarray.
Not sure The Mail should have featured Dianne. To most people she's that quaintly eccentric leftie who spent many years cuddling up on a sofa with Michael 'Who Dares Wins" Portillo - hardly the stuff of nightmares. Still, I'm sure Mr Dacre knows his audience.
She's black and therefore she's a suitable hate target
Oh gods, not this again. She's incompetent, arrogant, has had several high profile gaps and Labour is officially saying she should be in charge of the police - I don't doubt racists read the paper and that she gets attacked by racists, but there's so many good reasons for her to be included alongside McDonnell and Corbyn, as she truly has been one of the most prominent (I think we've seen more of her than McDonnell, frankly).
More from the Sun: Corbyn and McDonnell are "bad men who have spent their lives in the company of truly evil people."
Well, the Sun should know all about truly evil people.
The Sun never consorted with anti-Semites, or Hamas, or Hezbollah, or the IRA, or openly longed for the "defeat of the British state".
That is where Corbyn has brought Labour. This party is now obviously inferior, on any moral perspective, to the British tabloid press. Well done Ed "£3" Miliband.
We have had these attacks for weeks, yet the Jezza surge continues.
He is the ultimate teflon candidate. He makes jam.
Expect we haven't. The media has done bits and pieces but nothing close to something like this.
Let us be clear. We have no doubt that Mr Corbyn’s expressions of horror over the atrocities in Manchester and at London Bridge, and his sympathy for the victims and their families, were sincere.
But the ineluctable truth is that the Labour leader and his closest associates have spent their careers cosying up to those who hate our country, while pouring scorn on the police and security services and opposing anti-terror legislation over and over and over again
Ineluctable? This paper is classier than i realised.
True, the Conservative campaign has not been flawless and Mrs May will doubtless have learnt from the experience.
Just wait for the Exit poll with Jezza ahead!
Not an entrancing prospect. Look, if he gets smashed, maybe the LDs will get another go at trying to become the main opposition, like Farron said was the goal in the manifesto.
Well, whatever the fates of the two main parties, I think it's safe to assume the Lib Dem MPs will be able to squeeze into a couple of taxis without too much discomfort.
And it's not as though they will make up for the lack of numbers by outstanding quality. Somehow I don't think we'll ever see Tim Farron as Leader of the Opposition.
No indeed. They were so close to requiring more than 2 taxis again, but look like they'll be down to one. Or a tandem bike in some real bad scenarios.
The Mail has all cannons firing. And firing. And firing. Pics of bloody IRA victims, JC at CND rally, JC not singing the National Anthem, Hamas 'friends' with rocket launchers, Gerry Adams huddled with JC, more bomb victims.... anti-police stuff, immigration stuff... all in one long, long article. Bloody hell.
I have never seen anything like it.
I'd assume most of its readership wasn't planning to vote Labour anyway (though with so many readers, it probably still comes down to quite a few who were), so a very extreme way of telling people it is a duty to vote against the man I guess.
People miss important fact about daily mail. Despite all the jokes at it from the left & like shy tory syndrome nobody admits to logging on and looking at the sidebar of shane, lots of people who are not at all right wing visit the website. Their viewership is enormous.
Indeed.
The likes of Marcus Brigstocke and Andy Parsons should be very grateful to the Mail, without they wouldn't have a career.
Not sure The Mail should have featured Dianne. To most people she's that quaintly eccentric leftie who spent many years cuddling up on a sofa with Michael 'Who Dares Wins" Portillo - hardly the stuff of nightmares. Still, I'm sure Mr Dacre knows his audience.
She should have stayed on This Week.
Her and Portillo were a great duo.
Portillo also sounded a lot more reasonable back then. Now he may as well be a parrot for CCHQ.
Rubbish. Portillo is as independent a Tory as you can get.
It should be noted that Newsnight also returned to a Bishop Auckland working mens club they visited at the start of the campaign and found May still holding up relatively well.
Labour 3,500 majority there in 2015. UKIP got 7,000 votes.
That sounds a bit more like it
BBC sometime during the day did a vox pop from Wales - bunch of pensioners voting tory for first time - one laughing that her dad would be spinning in his grave.
Yes, there will be a lot of first time Tories in this election, probably the most since Thatcher in 1983
Indeed. They are loathsome. Jeremy is actually less loathsome than his pals, but, boy, does he choose some dodgy pals.
They deserve all of this, and more
I am sure this time next week we will be laughing at ourselves for letting it cross our minds these fucking imbeciles could be in charge of our country... people aren't that stupid
Yes, you should stop worrying, Most likely the current bunch of imbeciles will still be in charge next week.
Let us be clear. We have no doubt that Mr Corbyn’s expressions of horror over the atrocities in Manchester and at London Bridge, and his sympathy for the victims and their families, were sincere.
But the ineluctable truth is that the Labour leader and his closest associates have spent their careers cosying up to those who hate our country, while pouring scorn on the police and security services and opposing anti-terror legislation over and over and over again
Ineluctable? This paper is classier than i realised.
Both the Sun and the Daily Mail are written with skill. I mean the serious articles. Not the vicar gets his leg over or actress from a TV show gets her tits out at a nightclub stuff. .
I'm not a fan of their style - I prefer my partisan news to at least try to pretend it isn't partisan news - but can certainly accept there is plenty of skill there. Although a word like that just leaped out as incongruous for the simple, direct message that they are conveying.
I keep forgetting (although I shouldn't) that the Tories only need about 30 gains from Labour to get an overall majority of 100, assuming they pick up 10 gains in Scotland and a few from the LDs. 30 gains would involve Labour majorites of up to 3,000 votes, requiring a direct swing of just 1,500 votes.
I'm always very dubious of the BBC panel interviews, they always seem to have someone who says well I'm a lifelong Tory but I really like Gordon Brown / Ed Milliband / Jeremy Corbyn * delete as appropriate. That said I wouldn't be highly confident about Walsall going blue on Thursday. Both seats would need to see a real squeeze on UKIP to do it. If UKIP have a local elections style meltdown then maybe.
The GE reminds me of the Arsenal playing Sutton & Lincoln... all logic told me we would win easily, but the media wanted a story to make it interesting and part of me got nervous.
Other people I knew piled into the 1/16 and 1/10 and we won 2-0 & 5-0
True, the Conservative campaign has not been flawless and Mrs May will doubtless have learnt from the experience.
Just wait for the Exit poll with Jezza ahead!
Not an entrancing prospect. Look, if he gets smashed, maybe the LDs will get another go at trying to become the main opposition, like Farron said was the goal in the manifesto.
Well, whatever the fates of the two main parties, I think it's safe to assume the Lib Dem MPs will be able to squeeze into a couple of taxis without too much discomfort.
And it's not as though they will make up for the lack of numbers by outstanding quality. Somehow I don't think we'll ever see Tim Farron as Leader of the Opposition.
No indeed. They were so close to requiring more than 2 taxis again, but look like they'll be down to one. Or a tandem bike in some real bad scenarios.
This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.
What are they saying?
Mainly pro-Corbyn and anti-May.
WHat do you reckon to it - representative ?
I spoke to at least 10-15 voters in Walsall tonight, they virtually all preferred May to Corbyn, including several longtime Labour voters. This 'Focus Group' was probably as balanced as the BBC Question Time Audience! Andy Street even won Walsall in the WM Mayor election
Push polling gets the answer that you want.
Is Le Pen still leading? this time for the Assembly :-)
No it didn't, I still got some saying they would vote for Corbyn but on a clear choice the big preference was for May. If anyone is the more radical, extreme choice in this election like Le Pen it is Corbyn, May is where the centre will go as they did for Macron (though of course Le Pen did win most regions in the 1st round)
This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.
What are they saying?
Mainly pro-Corbyn and anti-May.
WHat do you reckon to it - representative ?
I spoke to at least 10-15 voters in Walsall tonight, they virtually all preferred May to Corbyn, including several longtime Labour voters. This 'Focus Group' was probably as balanced as the BBC Question Time Audience! Andy Street even won Walsall in the WM Mayor election
Thanks. I will raise a cheer to any Vaz being defeated in the early hours of Friday morning, although sadly Leicester East is nothing other than a Labour hold. I still see Tom Watson holding on, even though he has been virtually invisible throughout the campaign.
Let us be clear. We have no doubt that Mr Corbyn’s expressions of horror over the atrocities in Manchester and at London Bridge, and his sympathy for the victims and their families, were sincere.
But the ineluctable truth is that the Labour leader and his closest associates have spent their careers cosying up to those who hate our country, while pouring scorn on the police and security services and opposing anti-terror legislation over and over and over again
Ineluctable? This paper is classier than i realised.
Both the Sun and the Daily Mail are written with skill. I mean the serious articles. Not the vicar gets his leg over or actress from a TV show gets her tits out at a nightclub stuff. Julius Streicher's despicable Der Sturmer rag was composed with skill too.
The country moves one step further into the cack. This did turn out to be the Klan Brexit election after all.
Indeed. They are loathsome. Jeremy is actually less loathsome than his pals, but, boy, does he choose some dodgy pals.
They deserve all of this, and more
I am sure this time next week we will be laughing at ourselves for letting it cross our minds these fucking imbeciles could be in charge of our country... people aren't that stupid
Yes, you should stop worrying, Most likely the current bunch of imbeciles will still be in charge next week.
I keep forgetting (although I shouldn't) that the Tories only need about 30 gains from Labour to get an overall majority of 100, assuming they pick up 10 gains in Scotland and a few from the LDs.
People reading that Mail article will know that the Labour Party *elected* Corbyn as their leader. Every elected Labour candidate will be a member of *Corbyn's* parliamentary party. Corbyn has morally destroyed a once fine party of representatives of working people and the poor. It is tragic and utterly disgusting.
This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.
What are they saying?
Mainly pro-Corbyn and anti-May.
WHat do you reckon to it - representative ?
I spoke to at least 10-15 voters in Walsall tonight, they virtually all preferred May to Corbyn, including several longtime Labour voters. This 'Focus Group' was probably as balanced as the BBC Question Time Audience! Andy Street even won Walsall in the WM Mayor election
Well they seemed to be able to find plenty of May fans in their pieces at the start of the campaign.
They still have in Bishop Auckland tonight by the sound of it, obviously Walsall Tories are keeping their views a bit more to themselves as polling day approaches
They interviewd 2 again in Bishop Auckland, one sticking with May, the other swinging back to Labour.
How does a net loss of seats for the Tories come about?
1) The polls are accurate.
2) The voters think Theresa is weak and wobbly.
3) London, Wales and South swing left, aided by tactical voting
4) Gen X, Y and Millenials fancy trying this newfangled thing called socialism.
5) The WWC vote in Midlands and North goes home to Labour.
If they all happen, then Jezza will have to have someone caretake his allotment.
If a couple happen then May limps home wounded, and gets fragged by her own troops.
This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.
What are they saying?
Mainly pro-Corbyn and anti-May.
WHat do you reckon to it - representative ?
I spoke to at least 10-15 voters in Walsall tonight, they virtually all preferred May to Corbyn, including several longtime Labour voters. This 'Focus Group' was probably as balanced as the BBC Question Time Audience! Andy Street even won Walsall in the WM Mayor election
Thanks. I will raise a cheer to any Vaz being defeated in the early hours of Friday morning, although sadly Leicester East is nothing other than a Labour hold. I still see Tom Watson holding on, even though he has been virtually invisible throughout the campaign.
Yes I think Vaz and Watson will hold on, I think the Midlands will be good for the Tories but the biggest swing in England to the Tories will be in the NorthWest
Well that doesn't exactly leave a lot to the imagination does it??
But why have they been keeping it a secret for so long?
Unfortunately Peter, when you take away the big flashing lights and plain to the point talk of the Mail and Sun, Corbyn does not have a healthy set of measurements at all. It isn't really interpretation either. Bearing in mind the cops in this part of the world weren't his main report channel, that was a mainland operation, his name came up plenty as as a useful tool and legitimiser.
Some of it you just think 'he's just a bit of less likeable Wolfie Smith, who loves hanging out with every dodgepot 'freedom' movement but its the level of involvement and the almost peerless desire to back them down nearly every channel he has the will to use that marks him out.
It isn't a left or right issue, there is a core corruption of good sense and honestly, a wee bit of morality. At that point, whether he wants 5 year plans for tractor production as part of his manifesto just don't matter.
His private views haven't changed, he is locked into it.
I keep forgetting (although I shouldn't) that the Tories only need about 30 gains from Labour to get an overall majority of 100, assuming they pick up 10 gains in Scotland and a few from the LDs. 30 gains would involve Labour majorites of up to 3,000 votes, requiring a direct swing of just 1,500 votes.
The Mail has all cannons firing. And firing. And firing. Pics of bloody IRA victims, JC at CND rally, JC not singing the National Anthem, Hamas 'friends' with rocket launchers, Gerry Adams huddled with JC, more bomb victims.... anti-police stuff, immigration stuff... all in one long, long article. Bloody hell.
I have never seen anything like it.
I'd assume most of its readership wasn't planning to vote Labour anyway (though with so many readers, it probably still comes down to quite a few who were), so a very extreme way of telling people it is a duty to vote against the man I guess.
YouGov reckoned that in the 2015 election, 14% of Daily Mail readers who voted did so for Labour, compared to 62% of Guardian-reading voters. That's about 4.4 times larger as a proportion. But on 2015 circulation figures we have 1,658k to the Mail vs 179k for the Guardian. Assuming same turnout between papers, and same number of voters thumbing each copy of a paper, then 9.3 times as many sales would result in just under twice (9.3/4.4) as many Mail readers voting for Ed Miliband as Guardian readers...
This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.
What are they saying?
Mainly pro-Corbyn and anti-May.
WHat do you reckon to it - representative ?
I spoke to at least 10-15 voters in Walsall tonight, they virtually all preferred May to Corbyn, including several longtime Labour voters. This 'Focus Group' was probably as balanced as the BBC Question Time Audience! Andy Street even won Walsall in the WM Mayor election
Thanks. I will raise a cheer to any Vaz being defeated in the early hours of Friday morning, although sadly Leicester East is nothing other than a Labour hold. I still see Tom Watson holding on, even though he has been virtually invisible throughout the campaign.
Yes I think Vaz and Watson will hold on, I think the Midlands will be good for the Tories but the biggest swing in England to the Tories will be in the NorthWest
The North-West? Do you mean the northern half of the region? I can't see Liverpool and Manchester being particularly good for the Tories.
Let us be clear. We have no doubt that Mr Corbyn’s expressions of horror over the atrocities in Manchester and at London Bridge, and his sympathy for the victims and their families, were sincere.
But the ineluctable truth is that the Labour leader and his closest associates have spent their careers cosying up to those who hate our country, while pouring scorn on the police and security services and opposing anti-terror legislation over and over and over again
Ineluctable? This paper is classier than i realised.
Wulfrun, I'm on that, and on under 22.5, and under 14.5, and under 10.5 for good measure.
Very surprised that the yellow team decided to fight on the ground it did, although happy to follow the under/overs in on the back of it. Their Brexit line is effectively 'REJOIN' now, which has a bit of a credibility gap to say the least. Their time in coalition is still fairly recent, so the spotlight's on them and they can't fight the super-localised campaign they historically do without showing splits. And Farron being more socially conservative from them detracts from the rest of their message.
Prediction? Brake dust, Lamb chopped, Pugh [make pew-pew playground gun noises]-ed, but Clegg, Farron and Mulholland TCTC, primarily because I can't think of suitable puns.
Let us be clear. We have no doubt that Mr Corbyn’s expressions of horror over the atrocities in Manchester and at London Bridge, and his sympathy for the victims and their families, were sincere.
But the ineluctable truth is that the Labour leader and his closest associates have spent their careers cosying up to those who hate our country, while pouring scorn on the police and security services and opposing anti-terror legislation over and over and over again
Ineluctable? This paper is classier than i realised.
Both the Sun and the Daily Mail are written with skill. I mean the serious articles. Not the vicar gets his leg over or actress from a TV show her tits at a nightclub stuff. Julius Streicher's despicable Der Sturmer rag was composed with skill too.
"Ineluctable" is over-writing. Purpled prose.
The average reader will snag at that, like a rambler finding her cardigan caught on a bramble, and they will think - Oo-er what does that mean? And they will either feel insecure, or seek out a dictionary, or they will abandon the article altogether.
That's bad journalism and bad editing. Churchill would never have put *ineluctable* in one of his great speeches.
Fail.
Interesting point. Though Enoch's speeches were peppered with preciosity, and he's often cited as one of the great public speakers.
Addendum: Ipsos-MORI have historical estimates going back to 1992, including estimated differential turnout among newspapers! In 1997, 29% of Mail readers voted Labour. If Labour want to win an election, they would benefit from not turning their noses up at such support!
This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.
What are they saying?
Mainly pro-Corbyn and anti-May.
WHat do you reckon to it - representative ?
I spoke to at least 10-15 voters in Walsall tonight, they virtually all preferred May to Corbyn, including several longtime Labour voters. This 'Focus Group' was probably as balanced as the BBC Question Time Audience! Andy Street even won Walsall in the WM Mayor election
Push polling gets the answer that you want.
Is Le Pen still leading? this time for the Assembly :-)
No it didn't, I still got some saying they would vote for Corbyn but on a clear choice the big preference was for May. If anyone is the more radical, extreme choice in this election like Le Pen it is Corbyn, May is where the centre will go as they did for Macron (though of course Le Pen did win most regions in the 1st round)
En Marche 1.03 on Betfair for the Majority in the assembly on Sunday.
Addendum: Ipsos-MORI have historical estimates going back to 1992, including estimated differential turnout among newspapers! In 1997, 29% of Mail readers voted Labour. If Labour want to win an election, they would benefit from not turning their noses up at such support!
We are now in the age of the internet, website just as important. It is why the times doesn't have anywhere near the impact. I bet 95% of the population have no idea about the MI5 file on jezza story. If that was front and centre of the mail website gets a massive amount more views.
This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.
What are they saying?
Mainly pro-Corbyn and anti-May.
WHat do you reckon to it - representative ?
I spoke to at least 10-15 voters in Walsall tonight, they virtually all preferred May to Corbyn, including several longtime Labour voters. This 'Focus Group' was probably as balanced as the BBC Question Time Audience! Andy Street even won Walsall in the WM Mayor election
Thanks. I will raise a cheer to any Vaz being defeated in the early hours of Friday morning, although sadly Leicester East is nothing other than a Labour hold. I still see Tom Watson holding on, even though he has been virtually invisible throughout the campaign.
Yes I think Vaz and Watson will hold on, I think the Midlands will be good for the Tories but the biggest swing in England to the Tories will be in the NorthWest
The North-West? Do you mean the northern half of the region? I can't see Liverpool and Manchester being particularly good for the Tories.
Wulfrun, I'm on that, and on under 22.5, and under 14.5, and under 10.5 for good measure.
Very surprised that the yellow team decided to fight on the ground it did, although happy to follow the under/overs in on the back of it. Their Brexit line is effectively 'REJOIN' now, which has a bit of a credibility gap to say the least. Their time in coalition is still fairly recent, so the spotlight's on them and they can't fight the super-localised campaign they historically do without showing splits. And Farron being more socially conservative from them detracts from the rest of their message.
Prediction? Brake dust, Lamb chopped, Pugh [make pew-pew playground gun noises]-ed, but Clegg, Farron and Mulholland TCTC, primarily because I can't think of suitable puns.
Some bright sparks here have been suggesting the ultra remain strategy was only good for a by election or two, for months....
This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.
What are they saying?
Mainly pro-Corbyn and anti-May.
WHat do you reckon to it - representative ?
I spoke to at least 10-15 voters in Walsall tonight, they virtually all preferred May to Corbyn, including several longtime Labour voters. This 'Focus Group' was probably as balanced as the BBC Question Time Audience! Andy Street even won Walsall in the WM Mayor election
Thanks. I will raise a cheer to any Vaz being defeated in the early hours of Friday morning, although sadly Leicester East is nothing other than a Labour hold. I still see Tom Watson holding on, even though he has been virtually invisible throughout the campaign.
Yes I think Vaz and Watson will hold on, I think the Midlands will be good for the Tories but the biggest swing in England to the Tories will be in the NorthWest
The North-West? Do you mean the northern half of the region? I can't see Liverpool and Manchester being particularly good for the Tories.
This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.
What are they saying?
Mainly pro-Corbyn and anti-May.
WHat do you reckon to it - representative ?
I spoke to at least 10-15 voters in Walsall tonight, they virtually all preferred May to Corbyn, including several longtime Labour voters. This 'Focus Group' was probably as balanced as the BBC Question Time Audience! Andy Street even won Walsall in the WM Mayor election
Thanks. I will raise a cheer to any Vaz being defeated in the early hours of Friday morning, although sadly Leicester East is nothing other than a Labour hold. I still see Tom Watson holding on, even though he has been virtually invisible throughout the campaign.
Yes I think Vaz and Watson will hold on, I think the Midlands will be good for the Tories but the biggest swing in England to the Tories will be in the NorthWest
The North-West? Do you mean the northern half of the region? I can't see Liverpool and Manchester being particularly good for the Tories.
Unless they noticed that JC can't tell the difference between Manchester and Liverpool.
Not sure The Mail should have featured Dianne. To most people she's that quaintly eccentric leftie who spent many years cuddling up on a sofa with Michael 'Who Dares Wins" Portillo - hardly the stuff of nightmares. Still, I'm sure Mr Dacre knows his audience.
She should have stayed on This Week.
Her and Portillo were a great duo.
Portillo also sounded a lot more reasonable back then. Now he may as well be a parrot for CCHQ.
Rubbish. Portillo is as independent a Tory as you can get.
If only he hadn't been such an obnoxious sob in government. Too many people, from all sides were quite happy watching him get shafted as the result of his constituency was called.
A SurveyMonkey poll for the Sun has appeared on Wikipedia with Con 42% Lab 38%.
And the YouGov models have vanished.
Good, they aren't VI figures from a poll.
You're being bit naive, I'm afraid. No one is serving you up with raw polling figures. They are all models - giving you figures that are sliced, diced, pureed and cooked in every way you can imagine. The YouGov model gives you projected percentages just like the others, and also numbers of seats. We'll know who's closest to the truth some time on Friday.
So far I've not seen any a priori reason to suppose the big YouGov model is likely to be any better or worse than the other models.
This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.
What are they saying?
Mainly pro-Corbyn and anti-May.
WHat do you reckon to it - representative ?
I spoke to at least 10-15 voters in Walsall tonight, they virtually all preferred May to Corbyn, including several longtime Labour voters. This 'Focus Group' was probably as balanced as the BBC Question Time Audience! Andy Street even won Walsall in the WM Mayor election
Thanks. I will raise a cheer to any Vaz being defeated in the early hours of Friday morning, although sadly Leicester East is nothing other than a Labour hold. I still see Tom Watson holding on, even though he has been virtually invisible throughout the campaign.
Yes I think Vaz and Watson will hold on, I think the Midlands will be good for the Tories but the biggest swing in England to the Tories will be in the NorthWest
The North-West? Do you mean the northern half of the region? I can't see Liverpool and Manchester being particularly good for the Tories.
Yes I meant the North-West, not Liverpool or Manchester obviously which will have thumping Corbyn majorities but seats Cameron lost in 2015 like Wirral West and Chester will be regained and they will also make big inroads into Labour Leave seats in areas like Bury, Blackpool and Bolton, Chorley, Hyndburn, Workington, Ellesmere Port and Neston, Barrow and Furness and of course Copeland
Addendum: Ipsos-MORI have historical estimates going back to 1992, including estimated differential turnout among newspapers! In 1997, 29% of Mail readers voted Labour. If Labour want to win an election, they would benefit from not turning their noses up at such support!
We are now in the age of the internet, website just as important. It is why the times doesn't have anywhere near the impact. I bet 95% of the population have no idea about the MI5 file on jezza story. If that was front and centre of the mail website gets a massive amount more views.
Yes, file that mostly as "for historical interest". I think we need a new measure of which streams of information circulation people are expose to these days. You could have two relatively "high-information" voters both exposed to a variety of news-sources via following links that appear on their facebook feeds... yet be looking at completely different stuff.
A SurveyMonkey poll for the Sun has appeared on Wikipedia with Con 42% Lab 38%.
And the YouGov models have vanished.
Good, they aren't VI figures from a poll.
You're being bit naive, I'm afraid. No one is serving you up with raw polling figures. They are all models - giving you figures that are sliced, diced, pureed and cooked in every way you can imagine. The YouGov model gives you projected percentages just like the others, and also numbers of seats. We'll know who's closest to the truth some time on Friday.
So far I've not seen any a priori reason to suppose the big YouGov model is likely to be any better or worse than the other models.
It's fundamentally a different approach, more of a projection of the national share from their model rather than an opinion poll.
I keep forgetting (although I shouldn't) that the Tories only need about 30 gains from Labour to get an overall majority of 100, assuming they pick up 10 gains in Scotland and a few from the LDs. 30 gains would involve Labour majorites of up to 3,000 votes, requiring a direct swing of just 1,500 votes.
Addendum: Ipsos-MORI have historical estimates going back to 1992, including estimated differential turnout among newspapers! In 1997, 29% of Mail readers voted Labour. If Labour want to win an election, they would benefit from not turning their noses up at such support!
We are now in the age of the internet, website just as important. It is why the times doesn't have anywhere near the impact. I bet 95% of the population have no idea about the MI5 file on jezza story. If that was front and centre of the mail website gets a massive amount more views.
Yes, file that mostly as "for historical interest". I think we need a new measure of which streams of information circulation people are expose to these days. You could have two relatively "high-information" voters both exposed to a variety of news-sources via following links that appear on their facebook feeds... yet be looking at completely different stuff.
It is why Facebook is such a valuable company, not because of the size of the userbase but because they know this stuff.
This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.
What are they saying?
Mainly pro-Corbyn and anti-May.
WHat do you reckon to it - representative ?
I spoke to at least 10-15 voters in Walsall tonight, they virtually all preferred May to Corbyn, including several longtime Labour voters. This 'Focus Group' was probably as balanced as the BBC Question Time Audience! Andy Street even won Walsall in the WM Mayor election
Push polling gets the answer that you want.
Is Le Pen still leading? this time for the Assembly :-)
No it didn't, I still got some saying they would vote for Corbyn but on a clear choice the big preference was for May. If anyone is the more radical, extreme choice in this election like Le Pen it is Corbyn, May is where the centre will go as they did for Macron (though of course Le Pen did win most regions in the 1st round)
En Marche 1.03 on Betfair for the Majority in the assembly on Sunday.
Colour me a little sceptical about your punditry.
France is 2 rounds so even if En Marche top the poll on Sunday they are unlikely to win a majority until a week after, May is basically a combination of Macron and Fillon in this race, Corbyn is a combination of Hamon and Melenchon, Nuttall Le Pen, Farron an unchic Macron
Comments
Swing Lab to Con since GE2015 (average of last three polls)
GB: 2%
Lab marginals: 7%
Lab safe seats: 7%
Con safe seats: 0%
Con marginals: -1%
The usual caveats about small subsamples apply, although worth noting that the sample sizes for Con safe seats were c. 600-700, and Lab safe seats c. 300-400, so not too bad.
The above, if true, would imply an extraordinary efficiency in the Con vote.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-20179604/michael-portillo-on-trident-nuclear-replacement-plans
Labour 3,500 majority there in 2015. UKIP got 7,000 votes.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=J3WGdJ1PkXE
If, for example, the Times, or the FT went with a leader accusing them of being terror apologists, you would be inclined to take it a bit more seriously.
What we have seen in the past is when the media have put the pressure on is when he loses it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4578716/Apologists-terror-Corbyn-McDonnell-Abbott.html
"If you doubt what the Mail is saying, turn to Pages 4-7 where we catalogue quote after quote by this deadly troika, in which they damn themselves out of their own mouths."
But the ineluctable truth is that the Labour leader and his closest associates have spent their careers cosying up to those who hate our country, while pouring scorn on the police and security services and opposing anti-terror legislation over and over and over again
Ineluctable? This paper is classier than i realised.
And it's not as though they will make up for the lack of numbers by outstanding quality. Somehow I don't think we'll ever see Tim Farron as Leader of the Opposition.
Is Le Pen still leading? this time for the Assembly :-)
He is the ultimate teflon candidate. He makes jam.
What's she doing? Stand-up, or exotic dancing?
A propos, and despite the Mail already being, erm, disliked by Coogan and other luvvies, and despite them regarding not being on the Mail's Christmas card list as a badge of lefty honour, they may possibly some day wonder to what extent being associated with the Corbynite, hard left, anti-British faction will affect their own reputations. And gig income. Or maybe I am just hopelessly quaint about that and they are content to be friends of Jezza. In which case, sod 'em.
The country moves one step further into the cack. This did turn out to be the Klan Brexit election after all.
But i do think the terrorist events did throw the cons in particular off balance-we all know about their fabled "Grids" and i do think that has thrown their plans into disarray.
The likes of Marcus Brigstocke and Andy Parsons should be very grateful to the Mail, without they wouldn't have a career.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labour-defence/
Other people I knew piled into the 1/16 and 1/10 and we won 2-0 & 5-0
How does a net loss of seats for the Tories come about?
1) The polls are accurate.
2) The voters think Theresa is weak and wobbly.
3) London, Wales and South swing left, aided by tactical voting
4) Gen X, Y and Millenials fancy trying this newfangled thing called socialism.
5) The WWC vote in Midlands and North goes home to Labour.
If they all happen, then Jezza will have to have someone caretake his allotment.
If a couple happen then May limps home wounded, and gets fragged by her own troops.
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/06/06/the-jabir-bin-zayid-mosque-and-the-limits-of-tolerance/
Some of it you just think 'he's just a bit of less likeable Wolfie Smith, who loves hanging out with every dodgepot 'freedom' movement but its the level of involvement and the almost peerless desire to back them down nearly every channel he has the will to use that marks him out.
It isn't a left or right issue, there is a core corruption of good sense and honestly, a wee bit of morality. At that point, whether he wants 5 year plans for tractor production as part of his manifesto just don't matter.
His private views haven't changed, he is locked into it.
The electoral strategy (if not the campaign tactics) of May's positioning is a wonder to behold.
There is lots of low hanging fruit. And she is going to take it. Praise Mrs May!
Very surprised that the yellow team decided to fight on the ground it did, although happy to follow the under/overs in on the back of it. Their Brexit line is effectively 'REJOIN' now, which has a bit of a credibility gap to say the least. Their time in coalition is still fairly recent, so the spotlight's on them and they can't fight the super-localised campaign they historically do without showing splits. And Farron being more socially conservative from them detracts from the rest of their message.
Prediction? Brake dust, Lamb chopped, Pugh [make pew-pew playground gun noises]-ed, but Clegg, Farron and Mulholland TCTC, primarily because I can't think of suitable puns.
Addendum: Ipsos-MORI have historical estimates going back to 1992, including estimated differential turnout among newspapers! In 1997, 29% of Mail readers voted Labour. If Labour want to win an election, they would benefit from not turning their noses up at such support!
Colour me a little sceptical about your punditry.
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/06/06/corbyn-cant-defend-us-against-his-friends/
So far I've not seen any a priori reason to suppose the big YouGov model is likely to be any better or worse than the other models.
ABC reports the Attorney General Jeff Sessions has offered to resign.
Wonder why....
Update because Trump was angry with him....
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4578758/The-Mail-s-essential-tactical-voting-guide.html
Labour: 15,824
Tory and UKIP: 16,735
Vote Robert Alden to defeat Harriet Harman’s husband Jack Dromey
R
11. Don Valley
Labour: 19,621
Tory and UKIP: 20,699
Vote Aaron Bell to unseat Caroline Flint
And to prop up Clegg (again) in Sheffield Hallam.
I think like others do, that kind of model is the future of polling.
This particular model that they've got now however, just has way too big MOE.