The Sun doesn't understand. Corbyn was at the rally in solidarity with all people, excluding Jews, the White working class, Conservative voters, the security services, the military...
See? All people.
Corbyn has the kind of opinion scope that if he wasn't a Labour MP and went around coming off with some of his public utterances, he'd be a candidate for Prevent....
Long experience this side of the Irish Sea has led to much knowledge that Corbyn is a f**king little wannabe revolutionary. His views are encouragement to those who seek to undermine the basic tents of this nation, he fundamentally hates Britain and what it stands for whilst taking the benefit of the freedoms it gives.
On the declaration times, I see 3 of the 4 Northumberland seats are last to declare at Midday on Friday - presumably they're not starting counting until Friday morning? Yet Hexham is due to declare at 5am - odd!
I feel more relaxed about Thursday than I did before.
My fears about the LVT have been eased having done more research into it (and disregarding The Sun/Daily Mail as serious sources as I should have at the time) as well as realising that it is merely one option of many that will be looked at as part of the review into council tax and business rates.
I am ready to see what will happen next, either way. Most likely result is Con majority for me, I don't see how Labour majority can happen. Most that can is Labour minority government, and that will probably require confidence/supply deals to pretty much pass any legislation making it harder for Corbyn and co. to go to extremes.
That is exactly the kind of lie that I expected the day before the election from that filthy rag.
If there were any justice, the editor and proprietor of the Sun would be jailed for it for 10 years, and their rights to be involved in publishing would be removed forever.
The Sun is like a big arse wiping itself in the country's face. The Sun never "investigates" anything. All it can do is print lies and steal other papers' stories. It is a Tory campaign tool, but of course there won't be an investigation into that, not in this corrupt country.
By the way, big props to @hunchman@Danny565@Saltire for the predictions. We'll see what happens 48 hours from now as the exit poll is released!
Thanks @Sandpit. I was thinking around a Tory 70 majority towards the end of last week when the Labour opinion poll surge was at its height. I've just been hearing too much Labour negative stuff outside of London since then. The Labour Uncut article last night (forget the name of the guy who was accurate in 2015 IIRC) was a big confirmation for me of moving back to around a 100 Tory majority.
Iv'e bought on the spreads at 367 Tory seats, and have a bag of sand at 1.25 on the majority. I think Labournare going to pile up votes in London and Surrey where they make no difference, whereas the Tories will pile them up in the West Mids and North East marginals.
A pretty accurate description of the electorate's love for Theresa after this dreadful campaign.
Sun front page toxic for Jezz. Toxic.
Is anyone in the slightest surprised? Don't think anybody expected anything else. Would be the same with any other leader too. Liz Kendall would get it too.
Which seat do folks think will be the first Tory gain of the night? A North East seat perhaps? Darlington is fairly compact.
On my list going by the Press Association times it would be Darlington followed by Wrexham. I think by around 2.30am we'll have a good indication of the overall majority expected:
My last two election nights - the Brexit Referendum and Trump - have been emotional rollercoasters.
With Brexit, I kept swinging from feeling tinges of national pride to absolute horror (I thought Project Fear was going to be unleashed in all its glory in the days after the vote, and I admit I did seriously worry about a severe recession).
With Trump, it started with relief, through to disbelief, through to despair.
I don't know if I could sleep on an election night anyway though. I'd be too worried that I was oblivious to a Corbynite takeover.
I have to say, if the answer is Michael Gove, you must be asking the wrong question.
Desperate times.
He was going to be a truly awesome Justice Secretary.
Surely, and not to put too fine a point on the matter, but isn't Gove, dare I say it, and to avoid beating around the bush, what the Anglo-Saxons used to call a bit of a c*nt?
Did we ever work out who was behind this? I expected it to be The Sun headline today, so maybe it's for Thursday? twitter.com/kent_online/status/871684502132862977
The Sun doesn't understand. Corbyn was at the rally in solidarity with all people, excluding Jews, the White working class, Conservative voters, the security services, the military...
See? All people.
Corbyn has the kind of opinion scope that if he wasn't a Labour MP and went around coming off with some of his public utterances, he'd be a candidate for Prevent....
Long experience this side of the Irish Sea has led to much knowledge that Corbyn is a f**king little wannabe revolutionary. His views are encouragement to those who seek to undermine the basic tents of this nation, he fundamentally hates Britain and what it stands for whilst taking the benefit of the freedoms it gives.
A pretty accurate description of the electorate's love for Theresa after this dreadful campaign.
Sun front page toxic for Jezz. Toxic.
Is anyone in the slightest surprised? Don't think anybody expected anything else. Would be the same with any other leader too. Liz Kendall would get it too.
Yes but it would be something like Liz being unable to eat a bacon sandwich. She'd never have this sort of stuff chucked against her as it is obviously bollocks with her. With Jez OTOH..
I have to say, if the answer is Michael Gove, you must be asking the wrong question.
Desperate times.
He was going to be a truly awesome Justice Secretary.
Surely, and not to put too fine a point on the matter, but isn't Gove, dare I say it, and to avoid beating around the bush, what the Anglo-Saxons used to call a bit of a c*nt?
That is exactly the kind of lie that I expected the day before the election from that filthy rag.
If there were any justice, the editor and proprietor of the Sun would be jailed for it for 10 years, and their rights to be involved in publishing would be removed forever.
The Sun is like a big arse wiping itself in the country's face. The Sun never "investigates" anything. All it can do is print lies and steal other papers' stories. It is a Tory campaign tool, but of course there won't be an investigation into that, not in this corrupt country.
Except it's true - he loves these extremist groups - well just the ones that hate Britain..
The Spin line from Scottish Labour seems somewhat desperate.
Kezia never said it.
And Nicola shouldn't have leaked it.
Ummm
Not been Nicola's best campaign, and I say that as someone who supports Scottish independence. I'm on SNP 46 seats, with lack of clear Unionist alternative saving them in Aberdeen South, East Renfrewshire and Argyll and Bute. Edinburgh N looks close for comfort too. I see 42/43 as worst case scenario. Surprised that Salmond hasn't played more of a part in this campaign.
The Spin line from Scottish Labour seems somewhat desperate.
Kezia never said it.
And Nicola shouldn't have leaked it.
Ummm
Not been Nicola's best campaign, and I say that as someone who supports Scottish independence. I'm on SNP 46 seats, with lack of clear Unionist alternative saving them in Aberdeen South, East Renfrewshire and Argyll and Bute. Edinburgh N looks close for comfort too. I see 42/43 as worst case scenario. Surprised that Salmond hasn't played more of a part in this campaign.
We can only hope that he has been too busy defending his own seat.
I am genuinely disturbed by the Sky paper review this evening with the two guests suggesting that the burden of proof should be changed in terrorist cases so that we no longer convict on beyond reasonable doubt.
Everyone thinks that laws can be changed to just address one small section of society thinking it will never be extended to them. It is quite frightening.
By the way, big props to @hunchman@Danny565@Saltire for the predictions. We'll see what happens 48 hours from now as the exit poll is released!
Thanks @Sandpit. I was thinking around a Tory 70 majority towards the end of last week when the Labour opinion poll surge was at its height. I've just been hearing too much Labour negative stuff outside of London since then. The Labour Uncut article last night (forget the name of the guy who was accurate in 2015 IIRC) was a big confirmation for me of moving back to around a 100 Tory majority.
Iv'e bought on the spreads at 367 Tory seats, and have a bag of sand at 1.25 on the majority. I think Labournare going to pile up votes in London and Surrey where they make no difference, whereas the Tories will pile them up in the West Mids and North East marginals.
Labour Uncut guy is Atul Harawal I think
Yes that's the guy Atul Harawal - very astute commentator IMO. Good luck with your bets.
The Sun doesn't understand. Corbyn was at the rally in solidarity with all people, excluding Jews, the White working class, Conservative voters, the security services, the military...
See? All people.
Corbyn has the kind of opinion scope that if he wasn't a Labour MP and went around coming off with some of his public utterances, he'd be a candidate for Prevent....
Long experience this side of the Irish Sea has led to much knowledge that Corbyn is a f**king little wannabe revolutionary. His views are encouragement to those who seek to undermine the basic tents of this nation, he fundamentally hates Britain and what it stands for whilst taking the benefit of the freedoms it gives.
That kind of individual sound familar?
He's a c*nt, and he's going to lose.
You seem quite sure about that which I think is v interesting given what HYUFD said about Messina.
Nobody tonight at all, that was not the case last week, I think in the final days people are focusing on who they want as PM, May or Corbyn
Couple that with the final 48 hours - the Sun headline and all the residual worries about Corbyn and the people around him - and the landslide is very much on. All those undecideds Messina was talking about? They will break very heavily for May on the day. Just watch.....
I have attempted to create my own election prediction, of both seats and percentage.
Starting point is the 2015 election. Assume every vote cast then will be the same the time, and then apply various factors to change the votes. Factors are applied UNS (uniform national swing).
Factors:
(3) Youth surge. This extent of this has been debated, and is the main source of variance in the mainstream models. In UK2015 the 18-24 group had a turnout of 43%. What will it be in 2017, and can it win the election for LAB? There are almost 6 million voters in this range; for this model we need a fraction which will vote, and how they will vote. Lets give Survation / LAB benefit of the doubt, and assume 18-24 will have 70% turnout, splitting 70% to LAB and 15% to CON. That's about extra 1.1m votes to LAB, and 240,000 to CON. Applying UNS, we now get: CON 332 (42%), LAB 236 (37%). This is a big move, taking difference between parties from 124 to 96.
(4) LAB to CON. Not all labour voters are onboard the Corbyn train. This was evident at the start of the election, but has reduced over time, testament to the campaigning of Corbyn and appeal of his policies. So final adjustment is to add in a LAB to CON swing. At the start of the election, this might have been huge, eg, 10%, but given what's happened over course of last four weeks, we set it to 3%. This is low, and again favours LAB. So we are saying 3% of LAB are going direct to CON. Seats now: CON 342 (43%), LAB 226 (36%). This is a big effect, 20 seats have changed hands.
Final prediction. CON 342 (43%), LAB 226 (36%)
In % terms, encouraging that this matches Opinium, but instread of polling, simply follows from the reasoning above. Dodel does not take into account Scotland or Wales, nor idiosyncratic seats. But the net effect of those are likely to change this result in +-10 to CON, giving a lower end CON range of 330 to perhaps upper end of 355.
A hung parliament is possible. At the upper range of 355, its a CON majority of 30. Again, the model does favour LAB, but it would need some significant changes to the model for CON to get up 400 seats.
As for youth, even for 80% turnout, the difference amounts to swing of about 12 seats, not game changer. Can't see how the youth can change this election; just not enough of them.
My thinking is much the same. Forecasting Con 362, Lab 215, SNP 40, LD 11.
The youth vote turns over quickly, the 18 year olds of 2010 are now in the next band, and it is this band that is the key. They have known nothing but austerity and tuition fees. They only remember Conservative dominated government. It is turnout in the 25-34 band that is key, and my anecdata thinks they will not vote for May.
photo of "unwell" Diane Abbot on her phone this morning when she was supposedly too unwell to appear on the radio show, now in tomorrow's papers. Not good for Team Corbyn
Oh May, refrain from breaking my heart I'm so in love with you I'll be forever blue That you gimme no reason Why you make-a-me work so hard That you gimme no That you gimme no That you gimme no That you gimme no Soul, I hear you calling Oh May, please give a little cabinet post to meee....
@hannahrosewoods: What's the naughtiest thing you've done? PM: Jog through some wheat?
Eight hours later- PM: Also I'll probably take away your human rights
Shocking if Theresa actually goes through with curbing our ancient liberties. In those circumstances I'd expect another resignation from DD and a by-election.
Which seat do folks think will be the first Tory gain of the night? A North East seat perhaps? Darlington is fairly compact.
On my list going by the Press Association times it would be Darlington followed by Wrexham. I think by around 2.30am we'll have a good indication of the overall majority expected:
My last two election nights - the Brexit Referendum and Trump - have been emotional rollercoasters.
With Brexit, I kept swinging from feeling tinges of national pride to absolute horror (I thought Project Fear was going to be unleashed in all its glory in the days after the vote, and I admit I did seriously worry about a severe recession).
With Trump, it started with relief, through to disbelief, through to despair.
I don't know if I could sleep on an election night anyway though. I'd be too worried that I was oblivious to a Corbynite takeover.
According to my twitter timeline, that Sun front page is proof that Murdoch and the Tories are scared that Corbyn is going to win on Thursday
No surprises there. Are they all too young to remember The Sun sticking the boot into every opposition leader since the dawn of time - Kinnock 'lights out', Salmond 'you'll put Scotland's head in the noose'?
Corbyn's problem is that he has given people far too much ammo with some highly unwise associations over the years, hence the attempts to clean him up will never work.
I am genuinely disturbed by the Sky paper review this evening with the two guests suggesting that the burden of proof should be changed in terrorist cases so that we no longer convict on beyond reasonable doubt.
Everyone thinks that laws can be changed to just address one small section of society thinking it will never be extended to them. It is quite frightening.
Absolutely agree. I also don't want to see internment after the disaster that proved to be in Northern Ireland.
The Sun doesn't understand. Corbyn was at the rally in solidarity with all people, excluding Jews, the White working class, Conservative voters, the security services, the military...
See? All people.
Corbyn has the kind of opinion scope that if he wasn't a Labour MP and went around coming off with some of his public utterances, he'd be a candidate for Prevent....
Long experience this side of the Irish Sea has led to much knowledge that Corbyn is a f**king little wannabe revolutionary. His views are encouragement to those who seek to undermine the basic tents of this nation, he fundamentally hates Britain and what it stands for whilst taking the benefit of the freedoms it gives.
That kind of individual sound familar?
No, because it doesn't exist. But that kind of spiel doesn't half sound as though it could come from someone whose favourite attire includes a bowler hat and an orange sash.
On topic I agree with TSE entirely. As shown by his time at Justice, Gove is one of the very best of all Parliamentarians and it would be great to see him brought in to advise on some of the most difficult and complex issues facing the country.
@hannahrosewoods: What's the naughtiest thing you've done? PM: Jog through some wheat?
Eight hours later- PM: Also I'll probably take away your human rights
Shocking if Theresa actually goes through with curbing our ancient liberties. In those circumstances I'd expect another resignation from DD and a by-election.
The Sun doesn't understand. Corbyn was at the rally in solidarity with all people, excluding Jews, the White working class, Conservative voters, the security services, the military...
See? All people.
Corbyn has the kind of opinion scope that if he wasn't a Labour MP and went around coming off with some of his public utterances, he'd be a candidate for Prevent....
Long experience this side of the Irish Sea has led to much knowledge that Corbyn is a f**king little wannabe revolutionary. His views are encouragement to those who seek to undermine the basic tents of this nation, he fundamentally hates Britain and what it stands for whilst taking the benefit of the freedoms it gives.
That kind of individual sound familar?
He's a c*nt, and he's going to lose.
You seem quite sure about that which I think is v interesting given what HYUFD said about Messina.
Even Messina's most pessimistic numbers show a clear Corbyn defeat.
A pretty accurate description of the electorate's love for Theresa after this dreadful campaign.
Sun front page toxic for Jezz. Toxic.
Is anyone in the slightest surprised? Don't think anybody expected anything else. Would be the same with any other leader too. Liz Kendall would get it too.
That is exactly the kind of lie that I expected the day before the election from that filthy rag.
If there were any justice, the editor and proprietor of the Sun would be jailed for it for 10 years, and their rights to be involved in publishing would be removed forever.
The Sun is like a big arse wiping itself in the country's face. The Sun never "investigates" anything. All it can do is print lies and steal other papers' stories. It is a Tory campaign tool, but of course there won't be an investigation into that, not in this corrupt country.
There's always a defamation claim if Corbyn considers it defamatory.
The Sun doesn't understand. Corbyn was at the rally in solidarity with all people, excluding Jews, the White working class, Conservative voters, the security services, the military...
See? All people.
Corbyn has the kind of opinion scope that if he wasn't a Labour MP and went around coming off with some of his public utterances, he'd be a candidate for Prevent....
Long experience this side of the Irish Sea has led to much knowledge that Corbyn is a f**king little wannabe revolutionary. His views are encouragement to those who seek to undermine the basic tents of this nation, he fundamentally hates Britain and what it stands for whilst taking the benefit of the freedoms it gives.
That kind of individual sound familar?
He's a c*nt, and he's going to lose.
You seem quite sure about that which I think is v interesting given what HYUFD said about Messina.
Even Messina's most pessimistic numbers show a clear Corbyn defeat.
Ah, okay. Thanks for that info. I know what to expect on Thursday night then!
@JournoStephen: Politicians, business leaders, third sector execs -- there's a long list of folk who will now think twice before telling Sturgeon anything.
Nobody tonight at all, that was not the case last week, I think in the final days people are focusing on who they want as PM, May or Corbyn
Couple that with the final 48 hours - the Sun headline and all the residual worries about Corbyn and the people around him - and the landslide is very much on. All those undecideds Messina was talking about? They will break very heavily for May on the day. Just watch.....
Yes I think this is 1987, not February 1974, like Kinnock Corbyn has had a good campaign but in the privacy of the booth voters were not going to make Kinnock PM over Thatcher and they will not make Corbyn PM over May
I have to say, if the answer is Michael Gove, you must be asking the wrong question.
Desperate times.
He was going to be a truly awesome Justice Secretary.
Surely, and not to put too fine a point on the matter, but isn't Gove, dare I say it, and to avoid beating around the bush, what the Anglo-Saxons used to call a bit of a c*nt?
A minor flaw...
He's a (currently ex) Tory Minister, of course he's a git. It's expected. Like an awful Aunt in a PG Wodehouse dtory.
The Sun doesn't understand. Corbyn was at the rally in solidarity with all people, excluding Jews, the White working class, Conservative voters, the security services, the military...
See? All people.
Corbyn has the kind of opinion scope that if he wasn't a Labour MP and went around coming off with some of his public utterances, he'd be a candidate for Prevent....
Long experience this side of the Irish Sea has led to much knowledge that Corbyn is a f**king little wannabe revolutionary. His views are encouragement to those who seek to undermine the basic tents of this nation, he fundamentally hates Britain and what it stands for whilst taking the benefit of the freedoms it gives.
Theresa May's Willie is Patrick McLoughlin I think. The figure needs to be someone without his own political ambitions, who could compete with her. Probably a Remainer as Remainers are loyal. McLoughlin comes from a genuine working class background. She seems to trust him by making him Party chairman
I am genuinely disturbed by the Sky paper review this evening with the two guests suggesting that the burden of proof should be changed in terrorist cases so that we no longer convict on beyond reasonable doubt.
Everyone thinks that laws can be changed to just address one small section of society thinking it will never be extended to them. It is quite frightening.
I had this debate today with someone, it's almost like they forget how much of a success internment in Northern Ireland was.
Sir Lynton awakes. Float popular outside London scrapping of some human rights laws, which Corbyn has to oppose, tip off Sun and stand back. Mini-surge / firming up of votes in last 48 hours.
Perhaps the Tories are in a spot of trouble, that sun front page is very late in coming. I expected a mail / sun giving him the old 1-2 day after day but they have waited until the last second.
On the declaration times, I see 3 of the 4 Northumberland seats are last to declare at Midday on Friday - presumably they're not starting counting until Friday morning? Yet Hexham is due to declare at 5am - odd!
One of the reasons for Berwick is the tide times for Holy Island. (2 policemen overtime to watch the box cost most of their budget). You can only cross at certain times of day. Otherwise votes would be delivered by boat or helicopter. Both risky. The count was always done in one place for 4 constituencies to save money. Many rural places are 2 hours by road, during the night. It was generally accepted that daytime counting was better. No idea why Hexham is down for 5 am. Long daylight hours in June, or just wrong info?
Perhaps the Tories are in a spot of trouble, that sun front page is very late in coming. I expected a mail / sun giving him the old 1-2 day after day but they have waited until the last second.
Dents the impact if they're doing it day-in, day-out.
Perhaps the Tories are in a spot of trouble, that sun front page is very late in coming. I expected a mail / sun giving him the old 1-2 day after day but they have waited until the last second.
Today and polling day are perfect - reminds voters just before they vote
Must say, interesting that the Sun is 'investigating' Jeremy Corbyn two days before an election.
I think they'll do their best to make it a fair investigation and obviously they won't want to colour Jeremy Corbyn as guilty in any way shape or form before the 'full facts' can be tried in a court of law.
On the declaration times, I see 3 of the 4 Northumberland seats are last to declare at Midday on Friday - presumably they're not starting counting until Friday morning? Yet Hexham is due to declare at 5am - odd!
That's been the pattern since 1997, although oddly in 1992 both Wansbeck and Blyth Valley declared on the night. Berwick is the only seat in the country never to have declared during the night.
St Ives declared on the night in 1987 and 1992. They used helicopters to fly the ballot boxes to the mainland from the Scilly Isles.
@hannahrosewoods: What's the naughtiest thing you've done? PM: Jog through some wheat?
Eight hours later- PM: Also I'll probably take away your human rights
Shocking if Theresa actually goes through with curbing our ancient liberties. In those circumstances I'd expect another resignation from DD and a by-election.
Hadn't realised the ECHR was that old!
The ECHR is just a convenient bogeyman. The position of the anti-libertarian Right (epitomized by Dacre and co.) that the riff-raff have been allowed to much license over the years, is the one I'm sure that the statist Theresa will lurch towards.
Perhaps the Tories are in a spot of trouble, that sun front page is very late in coming. I expected a mail / sun giving him the old 1-2 day after day but they have waited until the last second.
Dents the impact if they're doing it day-in, day-out.
They want it to hit home at the right time.
I dont know it worked against miliband and he doesn't have the massive baggage that jez does.
The Sun doesn't understand. Corbyn was at the rally in solidarity with all people, excluding Jews, the White working class, Conservative voters, the security services, the military...
See? All people.
Corbyn has the kind of opinion scope that if he wasn't a Labour MP and went around coming off with some of his public utterances, he'd be a candidate for Prevent....
Long experience this side of the Irish Sea has led to much knowledge that Corbyn is a f**king little wannabe revolutionary. His views are encouragement to those who seek to undermine the basic tents of this nation, he fundamentally hates Britain and what it stands for whilst taking the benefit of the freedoms it gives.
That kind of individual sound familar?
Did you read the Weekly Worker article that it was taken from? :
"A group of ultra-orthadox religious jews (for whom the state of Israel is a 'blasphemy') waved Palestinian flags from the platform and were praised by the PLO speaker. The rally was also addressed by Labour MPs Jeremy Corbyn and George Galloway, and by union leaders Paul Mackney (Natfhe) and John McFadden (Unison), but there was no speaker who put forward a democratic solution based on the independent working class."
So Jezza shared a platform with ultra orthodox Jews, and the Israeli group Just Peace.
The article describes clearly the Al Mujarhadoon were an unwelcome disruptive group heckled by other elements of the rally.
The Spin line from Scottish Labour seems somewhat desperate.
Kezia never said it.
And Nicola shouldn't have leaked it.
Ummm
Not been Nicola's best campaign, and I say that as someone who supports Scottish independence. I'm on SNP 46 seats, with lack of clear Unionist alternative saving them in Aberdeen South, East Renfrewshire and Argyll and Bute. Edinburgh N looks close for comfort too. I see 42/43 as worst case scenario. Surprised that Salmond hasn't played more of a part in this campaign.
We can only hope that he has been too busy defending his own seat.
Seat? Sorry.... just came in. Are we talking about JackW?
Nobody tonight at all, that was not the case last week, I think in the final days people are focusing on who they want as PM, May or Corbyn
Couple that with the final 48 hours - the Sun headline and all the residual worries about Corbyn and the people around him - and the landslide is very much on. All those undecideds Messina was talking about? They will break very heavily for May on the day. Just watch.....
Yes I think this is 1987, not February 1974, like Kinnock Corbyn has had a good campaign but in the privacy of the booth voters were not going to make Kinnock PM over Thatcher and they will not make Corbyn PM over May
I suspect that is true. I think Corbyn has done much better than anyone expected, credit where credit's due - but I suspect it's not going to be enough to prevent a comfortable Tory win.
Three-year lurker unlurking here. I'll start with a vote of thanks.
1. To those PBers, especially those with their ears close to the floor, who give genuine tips and analysis. Special thanks to Meeks for the PVV/VVD shout and to whoever said to get on Macron while he was still odds-against. I know you'll all say it was you. Payouts from political bets haven't exactly bought me a new car, but they've covered my car insurance over the last 24 months.
2. OGH, TSE and any other contributors/editors/mods. This the least douchey place on the internet for political chat, and I don't think it's a coincidence.
3. Anyone who actually knocks on doors, stumps up a deposit or stands, for all the obvious reasons.
4. NPXMP, who is my mum and dad's old MP. They have met you and Soubry and think you are nicer.
How do I see the election going? Something like CON44, LAB33, LD8, for a CON maj of just under triple figures and a rough night for Tim Farron. Higher than most anticipate, and I'm led that way primarily by the anonymous tales of woe on Labour Uncut, Bloomberg etc over the last 48 hours, and a chat with a LD canvasser I know.
If you are after a tip from someone on the internet you've never met, try LD under 10 seats, which is 2.75 with BETFRED and should be odds-on.
Must say, interesting that the Sun is 'investigating' Jeremy Corbyn two days before an election.
I think they'll do their best to make it a fair investigation and obviously they won't want to colour Jeremy Corbyn as guilty in any way shape or form before the 'full facts' can be tried in a court of law.
If I had to guess they had it in the filing cabinet for ages but the terrorist attacks probably impacted when they could run it.
Theresa May's Willie is Patrick McLoughlin I think. The figure needs to be someone without his own political ambitions, who could compete with her. Probably a Remainer as Remainers are loyal. McLoughlin comes from a genuine working class background. She seems to trust him by making him Party chairman
Damien Green? He is similar in temperament to Whitelaw and Green is a one nation paternalist as well. I don't think he has leadership ambitions (Not that I would know anyway) and he is a former journalist so knows how the media works. Seems a steady and dependable type of person to me. The other alternative is Michael Fallon but maybe he fancies his chances of being leader despite his age.
If the Tories win, it will be because of a pull from xenophobia (Brexit: the Lab-UKIP-Con effect) and a push from terrorism (Manchester and London). Nothing to do with "the economy", the NHS, or social policy.
Perhaps the Tories are in a spot of trouble, that sun front page is very late in coming. I expected a mail / sun giving him the old 1-2 day after day but they have waited until the last second.
Dents the impact if they're doing it day-in, day-out.
They want it to hit home at the right time.
I dont know it worked against miliband and he doesn't have the massive baggage that jez does.
They are more scared of a Corbyn victory than a Miliband one. In hindsight, considering who's running Labour now, I don't think anyone could say the sky would have fallen in with Ed in Number 10.
I am genuinely disturbed by the Sky paper review this evening with the two guests suggesting that the burden of proof should be changed in terrorist cases so that we no longer convict on beyond reasonable doubt.
Everyone thinks that laws can be changed to just address one small section of society thinking it will never be extended to them. It is quite frightening.
I had this debate today with someone, it's almost like they forget how much of a success internment in Northern Ireland was.
Towards what aim?
It provoked a considerable surge in violence, pushed many into the IRA, and helped remove moderate Unionism from the picture. It was an Orange dream come true. You might as well call the Bloody Sunday massacre the following year a success too.
@hannahrosewoods: What's the naughtiest thing you've done? PM: Jog through some wheat?
Eight hours later- PM: Also I'll probably take away your human rights
Shocking if Theresa actually goes through with curbing our ancient liberties. In those circumstances I'd expect another resignation from DD and a by-election.
The Sun doesn't understand. Corbyn was at the rally in solidarity with all people, excluding Jews, the White working class, Conservative voters, the security services, the military...
See? All people.
Corbyn has the kind of opinion scope that if he wasn't a Labour MP and went around coming off with some of his public utterances, he'd be a candidate for Prevent....
Long experience this side of the Irish Sea has led to much knowledge that Corbyn is a f**king little wannabe revolutionary. His views are encouragement to those who seek to undermine the basic tents of this nation, he fundamentally hates Britain and what it stands for whilst taking the benefit of the freedoms it gives.
That kind of individual sound familar?
No, because it doesn't exist. But that kind of spiel doesn't half sound as though it could come from someone whose favourite attire includes a bowler hat and an orange sash.
For the record, I have never been in the Orange Order and won't be because I don't care for it. I was brought up not to see religion as a driver and I stuck to it.
What you gonna use now smart arse?
Ask some Republicans how they used Corbyn, if you know any, which you don't. Stitched up like a cheap set of trainers and he loved it, he loved brown nosing. You could nearly smell the shit off his face after he had done his meetings with them. 'Comrades' he would call them at the start of his little speeches during small gatherings.
More could easily come out about him within 24 hours, because there is more. There are plenty of tapped recordings, maybe they will come out?
Must say, interesting that the Sun is 'investigating' Jeremy Corbyn two days before an election.
I think they'll do their best to make it a fair investigation and obviously they won't want to colour Jeremy Corbyn as guilty in any way shape or form before the 'full facts' can be tried in a court of law.
PM Jezza will sort out Murdoch. He is very afraid, and rightly so, but afraid for his own money.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot rcs1000 said: » show previous quotes They have to be odds on. But I personally like Lamb, and were I in the constituency, I would vote for him.
That's exactly the point I've been making about the university seats re: students at home compared to at university in 2015, and hence the youth vote will be spread out in places where the Tories can easily absorb it. And of the 1.1m who registered at the last minute, lets say that breaks about 500-600k net in favour of Labour, its relatively insignificant when they started this campaign so far behind.
Still, I expect Labour to hold Exeter and Norwich S comfortably. LD's had candidate trouble in Bath and the university factor is a negative. I don't have anything changing hands in Cardiff - at the start of the campaign I though Labour would be in trouble in a number of the Cardiff seats.
A lot of comments have been made on OxWAb. I know it well having lived in Abingdon for 12 years. I expect a strong cut in the 9,500 majority but for Nicola Blackwood to hold. The 4k UKIP votes from last time are a crucial buffer, with the LD's starting too far behind. Still expect it to be one of the poorer Tory results in view of the relative Remain nature of the constituency.
FPT THANET SOUTH I live here He will win Not a great candidate and has not won many friends but his opponents are even worse.
The Sun doesn't understand. Corbyn was at the rally in solidarity with all people, excluding Jews, the White working class, Conservative voters, the security services, the military...
See? All people.
Corbyn has the kind of opinion scope that if he wasn't a Labour MP and went around coming off with some of his public utterances, he'd be a candidate for Prevent....
Long experience this side of the Irish Sea has led to much knowledge that Corbyn is a f**king little wannabe revolutionary. His views are encouragement to those who seek to undermine the basic tents of this nation, he fundamentally hates Britain and what it stands for whilst taking the benefit of the freedoms it gives.
That kind of individual sound familar?
Did you read the Weekly Worker article that it was taken from? :
"A group of ultra-orthadox religious jews (for whom the state of Israel is a 'blasphemy') waved Palestinian flags from the platform and were praised by the PLO speaker. The rally was also addressed by Labour MPs Jeremy Corbyn and George Galloway, and by union leaders Paul Mackney (Natfhe) and John McFadden (Unison), but there was no speaker who put forward a democratic solution based on the independent working class."
So Jezza shared a platform with ultra orthodox Jews, and the Israeli group Just Peace.
The article describes clearly the Al Mujarhadoon were an unwelcome disruptive group heckled by other elements of the rally.
mhh - not sure that is a completely accurate description but people can make up their own minds by reading the base doc in it's entirity
Is there an experience as grueling as forcing yourself to get through a piece of entertainment you simply do not find entertaining or otherwise compelling? Just read Phillip Gregory's 'The Little House' this evening - what a waste of time that was. And I know about wasting time *looks at pb post count*.
Theresa May's Willie is Patrick McLoughlin I think. The figure needs to be someone without his own political ambitions, who could compete with her. Probably a Remainer as Remainers are loyal. McLoughlin comes from a genuine working class background. She seems to trust him by making him Party chairman
Damien Green? He is similar in temperament to Whitelaw and Green is a one nation paternalist as well. I don't think he has leadership ambitions (Not that I would know anyway) and he is a former journalist so knows how the media works. Seems a steady and dependable type of person to me. The other alternative is Michael Fallon but maybe he fancies his chances of being leader despite his age.
The Sun doesn't understand. Corbyn was at the rally in solidarity with all people, excluding Jews, the White working class, Conservative voters, the security services, the military...
See? All people.
Corbyn has the kind of opinion scope that if he wasn't a Labour MP and went around coming off with some of his public utterances, he'd be a candidate for Prevent....
Long experience this side of the Irish Sea has led to much knowledge that Corbyn is a f**king little wannabe revolutionary. His views are encouragement to those who seek to undermine the basic tents of this nation, he fundamentally hates Britain and what it stands for whilst taking the benefit of the freedoms it gives.
That kind of individual sound familar?
Did you read the Weekly Worker article that it was taken from? :
"A group of ultra-orthadox religious jews (for whom the state of Israel is a 'blasphemy') waved Palestinian flags from the platform and were praised by the PLO speaker. The rally was also addressed by Labour MPs Jeremy Corbyn and George Galloway, and by union leaders Paul Mackney (Natfhe) and John McFadden (Unison), but there was no speaker who put forward a democratic solution based on the independent working class."
So Jezza shared a platform with ultra orthodox Jews, and the Israeli group Just Peace.
The article describes clearly the Al Mujarhadoon were an unwelcome disruptive group heckled by other elements of the rally.
mhh - not sure that is a completely accurate description but people can make up their own minds by reading the base doc in it's entirity
I am genuinely disturbed by the Sky paper review this evening with the two guests suggesting that the burden of proof should be changed in terrorist cases so that we no longer convict on beyond reasonable doubt.
Everyone thinks that laws can be changed to just address one small section of society thinking it will never be extended to them. It is quite frightening.
I had this debate today with someone, it's almost like they forget how much of a success internment in Northern Ireland was.
Towards what aim?
It provoked a considerable surge in violence, pushed many into the IRA, and helped remove moderate Unionism from the picture. It was an Orange dream come true. You might as well call the Bloody Sunday massacre the following year a success too.
I think you missed the irony in TSE's comment. I believe he is of the same mind as myself and many others here that things like Internment are just lunatic ideas.
On the declaration times, I see 3 of the 4 Northumberland seats are last to declare at Midday on Friday - presumably they're not starting counting until Friday morning? Yet Hexham is due to declare at 5am - odd!
One of the reasons for Berwick is the tide times for Holy Island. (2 policemen overtime to watch the box cost most of their budget). You can only cross at certain times of day. Otherwise votes would be delivered by boat or helicopter. Both risky. The count was always done in one place for 4 constituencies to save money. Many rural places are 2 hours by road, during the night. It was generally accepted that daytime counting was better. No idea why Hexham is down for 5 am. Long daylight hours in June, or just wrong info?
Thanks for the info. I remember when I was up there and the causeway was at high tide to get across to Lindisfarne! I remember watching archive footage of the February 1974 election with the Berwick result declared at around midday with Alan Beith in front of a very old shed type building. I think if PB had existed back then, nearly everyone would have expected the Tories easily to regain Berwick in that election after the 1973 by-election loss. It looks as though Berwick has reverted to type over 40 years later.
Comments
See? All people.
Corbyn has the kind of opinion scope that if he wasn't a Labour MP and went around coming off with some of his public utterances, he'd be a candidate for Prevent....
Long experience this side of the Irish Sea has led to much knowledge that Corbyn is a f**king little wannabe revolutionary. His views are encouragement to those who seek to undermine the basic tents of this nation, he fundamentally hates Britain and what it stands for whilst taking the benefit of the freedoms it gives.
That kind of individual sound familar?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/06/exclusive-special-branch-monitored-jeremy-corbyn-20-years-amid/
My fears about the LVT have been eased having done more research into it (and disregarding The Sun/Daily Mail as serious sources as I should have at the time) as well as realising that it is merely one option of many that will be looked at as part of the review into council tax and business rates.
I am ready to see what will happen next, either way. Most likely result is Con majority for me, I don't see how Labour majority can happen. Most that can is Labour minority government, and that will probably require confidence/supply deals to pretty much pass any legislation making it harder for Corbyn and co. to go to extremes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2n-blwYJ4s
when all on my mind was Gove
Now I find that most of the time
Gove's not enough in itself
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LpegbXXyRA
He was going to be a truly awesome Justice Secretary.
If there were any justice, the editor and proprietor of the Sun would be jailed for it for 10 years, and their rights to be involved in publishing would be removed forever.
The Sun is like a big arse wiping itself in the country's face. The Sun never "investigates" anything. All it can do is print lies and steal other papers' stories. It is a Tory campaign tool, but of course there won't be an investigation into that, not in this corrupt country.
Labour Uncut guy is Atul Harawal I think
You took a whole lot of loving
For a handful of nothing
(All Goved out)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wWi6OrgZe4
My last two election nights - the Brexit Referendum and Trump - have been emotional rollercoasters.
With Brexit, I kept swinging from feeling tinges of national pride to absolute horror (I thought Project Fear was going to be unleashed in all its glory in the days after the vote, and I admit I did seriously worry about a severe recession).
With Trump, it started with relief, through to disbelief, through to despair.
I don't know if I could sleep on an election night anyway though. I'd be too worried that I was oblivious to a Corbynite takeover.
PM: Jog through some wheat?
Eight hours later-
PM: Also I'll probably take away your human rights
https://twitter.com/kent_online/status/871684502132862977
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4576416/Hilarious-prank-sees-Theresa-written-giant-s-penis.html
My Lord high above
Tell me the meaning
The meaning of Gove
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7XCsFlKSrc
Now if it was running across a wheat field!
Everyone thinks that laws can be changed to just address one small section of society thinking it will never be extended to them. It is quite frightening.
The youth vote turns over quickly, the 18 year olds of 2010 are now in the next band, and it is this band that is the key. They have known nothing but austerity and tuition fees. They only remember Conservative dominated government. It is turnout in the 25-34 band that is key, and my anecdata thinks they will not vote for May.
Oh May, refrain from breaking my heart
I'm so in love with you
I'll be forever blue
That you gimme no reason
Why you make-a-me work so hard
That you gimme no
That you gimme no
That you gimme no
That you gimme no
Soul, I hear you calling
Oh May, please give a little cabinet post to meee....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x34icYC8zA0
Corbyn's problem is that he has given people far too much ammo with some highly unwise associations over the years, hence the attempts to clean him up will never work.
As it is the timing of the 'former Branch officer' is certainly well angled in the hope of impact. Well experienced bod in timing terms I see.
If ComRes are releasing another poll before June 8th, it shouldn't be too bad for the Tories then.
Who needs Gove like that?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZX0VJhrw01w
They want it to hit home at the right time.
I think they'll do their best to make it a fair investigation and obviously they won't want to colour Jeremy Corbyn as guilty in any way shape or form before the 'full facts' can be tried in a court of law.
St Ives declared on the night in 1987 and 1992. They used helicopters to fly the ballot boxes to the mainland from the Scilly Isles.
"A group of ultra-orthadox religious jews (for whom the state of Israel is a 'blasphemy') waved Palestinian flags from the platform and were praised by the PLO speaker. The rally was also addressed by Labour MPs Jeremy Corbyn and George Galloway, and by union leaders Paul Mackney (Natfhe) and John McFadden (Unison), but there was no speaker who put forward a democratic solution based on the independent working class."
So Jezza shared a platform with ultra orthodox Jews, and the Israeli group Just Peace.
The article describes clearly the Al Mujarhadoon were an unwelcome disruptive group heckled by other elements of the rally.
Landslide? I still doubt that.
1. To those PBers, especially those with their ears close to the floor, who give genuine tips and analysis. Special thanks to Meeks for the PVV/VVD shout and to whoever said to get on Macron while he was still odds-against. I know you'll all say it was you. Payouts from political bets haven't exactly bought me a new car, but they've covered my car insurance over the last 24 months.
2. OGH, TSE and any other contributors/editors/mods. This the least douchey place on the internet for political chat, and I don't think it's a coincidence.
3. Anyone who actually knocks on doors, stumps up a deposit or stands, for all the obvious reasons.
4. NPXMP, who is my mum and dad's old MP. They have met you and Soubry and think you are nicer.
How do I see the election going? Something like CON44, LAB33, LD8, for a CON maj of just under triple figures and a rough night for Tim Farron. Higher than most anticipate, and I'm led that way primarily by the anonymous tales of woe on Labour Uncut, Bloomberg etc over the last 48 hours, and a chat with a LD canvasser I know.
If you are after a tip from someone on the internet you've never met, try LD under 10 seats, which is 2.75 with BETFRED and should be odds-on.
It provoked a considerable surge in violence, pushed many into the IRA, and helped remove moderate Unionism from the picture. It was an Orange dream come true. You might as well call the Bloody Sunday massacre the following year a success too.
There was another road. Those who want to broaden their understanding of the Irish question should read Richard Leigh's excellent essay "Mythic Logic: Ireland".
I Gove to hate you
I Gove to hate you
I Gove to hate you
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygLy02y7_n8
What you gonna use now smart arse?
Ask some Republicans how they used Corbyn, if you know any, which you don't. Stitched up like a cheap set of trainers and he loved it, he loved brown nosing. You could nearly smell the shit off his face after he had done his meetings with them. 'Comrades' he would call them at the start of his little speeches during small gatherings.
More could easily come out about him within 24 hours, because there is more. There are plenty of tapped recordings, maybe they will come out?
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
rcs1000 said:
» show previous quotes
They have to be odds on. But I personally like Lamb, and were I in the constituency, I would vote for him.
That's exactly the point I've been making about the university seats re: students at home compared to at university in 2015, and hence the youth vote will be spread out in places where the Tories can easily absorb it. And of the 1.1m who registered at the last minute, lets say that breaks about 500-600k net in favour of Labour, its relatively insignificant when they started this campaign so far behind.
Still, I expect Labour to hold Exeter and Norwich S comfortably. LD's had candidate trouble in Bath and the university factor is a negative. I don't have anything changing hands in Cardiff - at the start of the campaign I though Labour would be in trouble in a number of the Cardiff seats.
A lot of comments have been made on OxWAb. I know it well having lived in Abingdon for 12 years. I expect a strong cut in the 9,500 majority but for Nicola Blackwood to hold. The 4k UKIP votes from last time are a crucial buffer, with the LD's starting too far behind. Still expect it to be one of the poorer Tory results in view of the relative Remain nature of the constituency.
FPT
THANET SOUTH
I live here
He will win
Not a great candidate and has not won many friends but his opponents are even worse.
http://weeklyworker.co.uk/worker/433/build-on-success/