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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All you need is Gove, Gove, Gove is all you need Mrs May

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    edited June 2017

    Perhaps the Tories are in a spot of trouble, that sun front page is very late in coming. I expected a mail / sun giving him the old 1-2 day after day but they have waited until the last second.

    Dents the impact if they're doing it day-in, day-out.

    They want it to hit home at the right time.
    I dont know it worked against miliband and he doesn't have the massive baggage that jez does.
    They are more scared of a Corbyn victory than a Miliband one.
    You'd think so. But those polls... (no they don't show Corbyn victory, but still)
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,951
    Drutt said:

    Three-year lurker unlurking here. I'll start with a vote of thanks.

    1. To those PBers, especially those with their ears close to the floor, who give genuine tips and analysis. Special thanks to Meeks for the PVV/VVD shout and to whoever said to get on Macron while he was still odds-against. I know you'll all say it was you. Payouts from political bets haven't exactly bought me a new car, but they've covered my car insurance over the last 24 months.

    2. OGH, TSE and any other contributors/editors/mods. This the least douchey place on the internet for political chat, and I don't think it's a coincidence.

    3. Anyone who actually knocks on doors, stumps up a deposit or stands, for all the obvious reasons.

    4. NPXMP, who is my mum and dad's old MP. They have met you and Soubry and think you are nicer.

    How do I see the election going? Something like CON44, LAB33, LD8, for a CON maj of just under triple figures and a rough night for Tim Farron. Higher than most anticipate, and I'm led that way primarily by the anonymous tales of woe on Labour Uncut, Bloomberg etc over the last 48 hours, and a chat with a LD canvasser I know.

    If you are after a tip from someone on the internet you've never met, try LD under 10 seats, which is 2.75 with BETFRED and should be odds-on.

    Welcome sir! Cracking first post.

    I'm on the LD under 10 - currently 3.7 at betfair exchange. Started backing at 8.......right down to 4.something
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    Is there an experience as grueling as forcing yourself to get through a piece of entertainment you simply do not find entertaining or otherwise compelling? Just read Phillip Gregory's 'The Little House' this evening - what a waste of time that was. And I know about wasting time *looks at pb post count*.

    Read Casino_Royale's post and calm down. Seriously.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927

    I am genuinely disturbed by the Sky paper review this evening with the two guests suggesting that the burden of proof should be changed in terrorist cases so that we no longer convict on beyond reasonable doubt.

    Everyone thinks that laws can be changed to just address one small section of society thinking it will never be extended to them. It is quite frightening.

    Indeed, that's illiberal bollocks, same as the internet censorship Mrs May is going on about. The scumbags win if we do that shit.

    We just need to make it clear that anyone travelling to Libya or Syria without good reason can expect to not be allowed back, and if they're British citizens they can expect to be put on trial for treason. The trial and the jury are important though, we don't intern people without charging them with an offence.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Y0kel said:

    Cyan said:

    Y0kel said:

    The Sun doesn't understand. Corbyn was at the rally in solidarity with all people, excluding Jews, the White working class, Conservative voters, the security services, the military...

    See? All people.

    Corbyn has the kind of opinion scope that if he wasn't a Labour MP and went around coming off with some of his public utterances, he'd be a candidate for Prevent....

    Long experience this side of the Irish Sea has led to much knowledge that Corbyn is a f**king little wannabe revolutionary. His views are encouragement to those who seek to undermine the basic tents of this nation, he fundamentally hates Britain and what it stands for whilst taking the benefit of the freedoms it gives.

    That kind of individual sound familar?

    No, because it doesn't exist. But that kind of spiel doesn't half sound as though it could come from someone whose favourite attire includes a bowler hat and an orange sash.
    For the record, I have never been in the Orange Order and won't be because I don't care for it. I was brought up not to see religion as a driver and I stuck to it.

    What you gonna use now smart arse?

    Ask some Republicans how they used Corbyn, if you know any, which you don't. Stitched up like a cheap set of trainers and he loved it, he loved brown nosing. You could nearly smell the shit off his face after he had done his meetings with them. 'Comrades' he would call them at the start of his little speeches during small gatherings.

    More could easily come out about him within 24 hours, because there is more. There are plenty of tapped recordings, maybe they will come out?


    He would deserve it
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    Drutt said:


    2. OGH, TSE and any other contributors/editors/mods. This the least douchey place on the internet for political chat, and I don't think it's a coincidence.

    Still douchey though :)
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Floater said:

    Y0kel said:

    The Sun doesn't understand. Corbyn was at the rally in solidarity with all people, excluding Jews, the White working class, Conservative voters, the security services, the military...

    See? All people.

    Corbyn has the kind of opinion scope that if he wasn't a Labour MP and went around coming off with some of his public utterances, he'd be a candidate for Prevent....

    Long experience this side of the Irish Sea has led to much knowledge that Corbyn is a f**king little wannabe revolutionary. His views are encouragement to those who seek to undermine the basic tents of this nation, he fundamentally hates Britain and what it stands for whilst taking the benefit of the freedoms it gives.

    That kind of individual sound familar?

    Did you read the Weekly Worker article that it was taken from? :

    "A group of ultra-orthadox religious jews (for whom the state of Israel is a 'blasphemy') waved Palestinian flags from the platform and were praised by the PLO speaker. The rally was also addressed by Labour MPs Jeremy Corbyn and George Galloway, and by union leaders Paul Mackney (Natfhe) and John McFadden (Unison), but there was no speaker who put forward a democratic solution based on the independent working class."

    So Jezza shared a platform with ultra orthodox Jews, and the Israeli group Just Peace.

    The article describes clearly the Al Mujarhadoon were an unwelcome disruptive group heckled by other elements of the rally.
    mhh - not sure that is a completely accurate description but people can make up their own minds by reading the base doc in it's entirity

    http://weeklyworker.co.uk/worker/433/build-on-success/
    Mine was a cut and paste!
    Not of the entire article
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Jason said:

    Shameless looked positively fed up on Newsnight. At best, disinterested. Not someone who thinks they're going to be in government on Friday.

    Sorry Jason - shameless - do you mean Chami
    No, I mean Shameless.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Y0kel said:

    The Sun doesn't understand. Corbyn was at the rally in solidarity with all people, excluding Jews, the White working class, Conservative voters, the security services, the military...

    See? All people.

    Corbyn has the kind of opinion scope that if he wasn't a Labour MP and went around coming off with some of his public utterances, he'd be a candidate for Prevent....

    Long experience this side of the Irish Sea has led to much knowledge that Corbyn is a f**king little wannabe revolutionary. His views are encouragement to those who seek to undermine the basic tents of this nation, he fundamentally hates Britain and what it stands for whilst taking the benefit of the freedoms it gives.

    That kind of individual sound familar?

    Did you read the Weekly Worker article that it was taken from? :

    "A group of ultra-orthadox religious jews (for whom the state of Israel is a 'blasphemy') waved Palestinian flags from the platform and were praised by the PLO speaker. The rally was also addressed by Labour MPs Jeremy Corbyn and George Galloway, and by union leaders Paul Mackney (Natfhe) and John McFadden (Unison), but there was no speaker who put forward a democratic solution based on the independent working class."

    So Jezza shared a platform with ultra orthodox Jews, and the Israeli group Just Peace.

    The article describes clearly the Al Mujarhadoon were an unwelcome disruptive group heckled by other elements of the rally.
    I'm already aware of more about this guy and his associations than most. One article in the Sun doesn't change jack, I already know what he is and who he is.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Y0kel said:

    The Sun doesn't understand. Corbyn was at the rally in solidarity with all people, excluding Jews, the White working class, Conservative voters, the security services, the military...

    See? All people.

    Corbyn has the kind of opinion scope that if he wasn't a Labour MP and went around coming off with some of his public utterances, he'd be a candidate for Prevent....

    Long experience this side of the Irish Sea has led to much knowledge that Corbyn is a f**king little wannabe revolutionary. His views are encouragement to those who seek to undermine the basic tents of this nation, he fundamentally hates Britain and what it stands for whilst taking the benefit of the freedoms it gives.

    That kind of individual sound familar?

    Did you read the Weekly Worker article that it was taken from? :

    "A group of ultra-orthadox religious jews (for whom the state of Israel is a 'blasphemy') waved Palestinian flags from the platform and were praised by the PLO speaker. The rally was also addressed by Labour MPs Jeremy Corbyn and George Galloway, and by union leaders Paul Mackney (Natfhe) and John McFadden (Unison), but there was no speaker who put forward a democratic solution based on the independent working class."

    So Jezza shared a platform with ultra orthodox Jews, and the Israeli group Just Peace.

    The article describes clearly the Al Mujarhadoon were an unwelcome disruptive group heckled by other elements of the rally.
    mhh - not sure that is a completely accurate description but people can make up their own minds by reading the base doc in it's entirity

    http://weeklyworker.co.uk/worker/433/build-on-success/
    Mine was a cut and paste!
    Not of the entire article
    And I was referring to your comments

    So Jezza shared a platform with ultra orthodox Jews, and the Israeli group Just Peace.

    The article describes clearly the Al Mujarhadoon were an unwelcome disruptive group heckled by other elements of the rally.

    which do not I feel accurately reflect the whole picture
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited June 2017
    I think if I was going to do a daily mail hit piece on labour I would do a playing card style front page each with picture ans a dodgy thing about them ie marxist entrist, wanted IRA to win, communist leader, etc just to make it absolutely clear what you are getting if labour win.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927

    photo of "unwell" Diane Abbot on her phone this morning when she was supposedly too unwell to appear on the radio show, now in tomorrow's papers. Not good for Team Corbyn

    Of course she was unwell, she'd been in a massive car crash only 12 hours earlier ;)
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,951
    ab195 said:

    Sir Lynton awakes. Float popular outside London scrapping of some human rights laws, which Corbyn has to oppose, tip off Sun and stand back. Mini-surge / firming up of votes in last 48 hours.

    And Labour have already swallowed the lure hook, line and sinker...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    kle4 said:

    Is there an experience as grueling as forcing yourself to get through a piece of entertainment you simply do not find entertaining or otherwise compelling? Just read Phillip Gregory's 'The Little House' this evening - what a waste of time that was. And I know about wasting time *looks at pb post count*.

    Read Casino_Royale's post and calm down. Seriously.

    kle4 said:

    Is there an experience as grueling as forcing yourself to get through a piece of entertainment you simply do not find entertaining or otherwise compelling? Just read Phillip Gregory's 'The Little House' this evening - what a waste of time that was. And I know about wasting time *looks at pb post count*.

    Read Casino_Royale's post and calm down. Seriously.
    Seriously, I don't think Corbyn is going to win and didn't say I did - I was referring the pretty likely fact he will outdo Ed M in vote share, which is astounding to me given I'd think people would fear him winning more than Ed M. I know we joke about it, but not everything is a bedwetting panic attack for christ's sake
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Y0kel said:

    Y0kel said:

    The Sun doesn't understand. Corbyn was at the rally in solidarity with all people, excluding Jews, the White working class, Conservative voters, the security services, the military...

    See? All people.

    Corbyn has the kind of opinion scope that if he wasn't a Labour MP and went around coming off with some of his public utterances, he'd be a candidate for Prevent....

    Long experience this side of the Irish Sea has led to much knowledge that Corbyn is a f**king little wannabe revolutionary. His views are encouragement to those who seek to undermine the basic tents of this nation, he fundamentally hates Britain and what it stands for whilst taking the benefit of the freedoms it gives.

    That kind of individual sound familar?

    Did you read the Weekly Worker article that it was taken from? :

    "A group of ultra-orthadox religious jews (for whom the state of Israel is a 'blasphemy') waved Palestinian flags from the platform and were praised by the PLO speaker. The rally was also addressed by Labour MPs Jeremy Corbyn and George Galloway, and by union leaders Paul Mackney (Natfhe) and John McFadden (Unison), but there was no speaker who put forward a democratic solution based on the independent working class."

    So Jezza shared a platform with ultra orthodox Jews, and the Israeli group Just Peace.

    The article describes clearly the Al Mujarhadoon were an unwelcome disruptive group heckled by other elements of the rally.
    I'm already aware of more about this guy and his associations than most. One article in the Sun doesn't change jack, I already know what he is and who he is.
    Yokel, have you been speaking to the Telegraph :-)
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,969

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @hannahrosewoods: What's the naughtiest thing you've done?
    PM: Jog through some wheat?

    Eight hours later-
    PM: Also I'll probably take away your human rights

    Shocking if Theresa actually goes through with curbing our ancient liberties. In those circumstances I'd expect another resignation from DD and a by-election.
    Hadn't realised the ECHR was that old!
    The ECHR is just a convenient bogeyman. The position of the anti-libertarian Right (epitomized by Dacre and co.) that the riff-raff have been allowed to much license over the years, is the one I'm sure that the statist Theresa will lurch towards.
    The ECHR is frankly irrelevant. The important laws that protect our freedoms existed for decades or even centuries before we even thought about the ECHR. It is those freedoms that are now being seriously threatened by politicians to ignorant to look for anything other than a quick fix and too dumb to realise what long term damage they will do.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,496

    Perhaps the Tories are in a spot of trouble, that sun front page is very late in coming. I expected a mail / sun giving him the old 1-2 day after day but they have waited until the last second.

    Dents the impact if they're doing it day-in, day-out.

    They want it to hit home at the right time.
    I dont know it worked against miliband and he doesn't have the massive baggage that jez does.
    They are more scared of a Corbyn victory than a Miliband one. In hindsight, considering who's running Labour now, I don't think anyone could say the sky would have fallen in with Ed in Number 10.
    Unless a few uears into a Miliband government there was a leadershipp election for some reason, and it turned out there were still loads of rabid lefties from the early 80s that we thought had gone away, and various MPs nominated a candidate from the left to 'broaden the debate' and win brownie points with the unions - only this election was effectively for PM rather than LOTO.

    This is why it will take me a good long while even after Corbyn before I'd consider trusting the British Labour Party with any grown up decisions again.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,343
    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    Shameless looked positively fed up on Newsnight. At best, disinterested. Not someone who thinks they're going to be in government on Friday.

    Sorry Jason - shameless - do you mean Chami
    No, I mean Shameless.
    Sorry Jason - I should know who you mean but not sure who you are referring to
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Is there an experience as grueling as forcing yourself to get through a piece of entertainment you simply do not find entertaining or otherwise compelling? Just read Phillip Gregory's 'The Little House' this evening - what a waste of time that was. And I know about wasting time *looks at pb post count*.

    Read Casino_Royale's post and calm down. Seriously.

    kle4 said:

    Is there an experience as grueling as forcing yourself to get through a piece of entertainment you simply do not find entertaining or otherwise compelling? Just read Phillip Gregory's 'The Little House' this evening - what a waste of time that was. And I know about wasting time *looks at pb post count*.

    Read Casino_Royale's post and calm down. Seriously.
    Seriously, I don't think Corbyn is going to win and didn't say I did - I was referring the pretty likely fact he will outdo Ed M in vote share, which is astounding to me given I'd think people would fear him winning more than Ed M. I know we joke about it, but not everything is a bedwetting panic attack for christ's sake
    Sorry....

    Corbyn comes off as more personable/charismatic than Ed M did in 2015. That's why. Most voters will not know about his past either.
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    Cyan said:

    I am genuinely disturbed by the Sky paper review this evening with the two guests suggesting that the burden of proof should be changed in terrorist cases so that we no longer convict on beyond reasonable doubt.

    Everyone thinks that laws can be changed to just address one small section of society thinking it will never be extended to them. It is quite frightening.

    I had this debate today with someone, it's almost like they forget how much of a success internment in Northern Ireland was.
    Towards what aim?

    It provoked a considerable surge in violence, pushed many into the IRA, and helped remove moderate Unionism from the picture. It was an Orange dream come true. You might as well call the Bloody Sunday massacre the following year a success too.

    There was another road. Those who want to broaden their understanding of the Irish question should read Richard Leigh's excellent essay "Mythic Logic: Ireland".
    TSE, do you think "internment" was a great success in Algeria, Kenya, and South America too? There's no doubt it's been much used, almost always with torture, and in many cases with concentration camps.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited June 2017

    Blimey

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/872212742186389506

    Uncle lynton has been on the blower.....is.it about fucking time. It is bad they didn't also rip the dodgy manifesto to shreds to.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,992
    edited June 2017
    hunchman said:

    dixiedean said:

    hunchman said:

    On the declaration times, I see 3 of the 4 Northumberland seats are last to declare at Midday on Friday - presumably they're not starting counting until Friday morning? Yet Hexham is due to declare at 5am - odd!

    One of the reasons for Berwick is the tide times for Holy Island. (2 policemen overtime to watch the box cost most of their budget). You can only cross at certain times of day. Otherwise votes would be delivered by boat or helicopter. Both risky. The count was always done in one place for 4 constituencies to save money. Many rural places are 2 hours by road, during the night. It was generally accepted that daytime counting was better. No idea why Hexham is down for 5 am. Long daylight hours in June, or just wrong info?
    Thanks for the info. I remember when I was up there and the causeway was at high tide to get across to Lindisfarne! I remember watching archive footage of the February 1974 election with the Berwick result declared at around midday with Alan Beith in front of a very old shed type building. I think if PB had existed back then, nearly everyone would have expected the Tories easily to regain Berwick in that election after the 1973 by-election loss. It looks as though Berwick has reverted to type over 40 years later.

    Yes, Alan Beith was genuinely well liked. Have both Tories and Momentum types agreeing on that. Was one of the few with a genuinely large personal vote. It is, however, natural Conservative territory.
    ps, You should try walking the Causeway. It is an eerie experience. Like a sci-fi set.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    timmo said:

    I hear it all kicked off at the standard hustings tonight..

    Do tell
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    BLOODY HELL DAILY MAIL.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    Blimey

    hts://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/872212742186389506

    Interesting photo choices - Corbyn looking worried, McDonnell like he's about to thump someone, and Abbott like she sat on a pin.

    I don't know why, but for some reason though it is a truly amazingly hostile headline, I am less offended than that 'Crush the Saboteurs' one. I guess because it is only focusing on three people?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    hunchman said:

    Sandpit said:

    hunchman said:

    Sandpit said:

    By the way, big props to @hunchman @Danny565 @Saltire for the predictions. We'll see what happens 48 hours from now as the exit poll is released!

    Thanks @Sandpit. I was thinking around a Tory 70 majority towards the end of last week when the Labour opinion poll surge was at its height. I've just been hearing too much Labour negative stuff outside of London since then. The Labour Uncut article last night (forget the name of the guy who was accurate in 2015 IIRC) was a big confirmation for me of moving back to around a 100 Tory majority.
    Iv'e bought on the spreads at 367 Tory seats, and have a bag of sand at 1.25 on the majority. I think Labournare going to pile up votes in London and Surrey where they make no difference, whereas the Tories will pile them up in the West Mids and North East marginals.

    Labour Uncut guy is Atul Harawal I think
    Yes that's the guy Atul Harawal - very astute commentator IMO. Good luck with your bets.
    Yes, he's very good, and not afraid to call a spade a spade at this point in the campaign.
    I've got all my eggs in one basket with the betting, some lucky buggers managed to get 1.31 on the majority this morning. I still predict a 90 majority.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Mail has gone balls deep.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    The Daily Mail very much on the fence then?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,343
    nunu said:
    That will be interesting if it features in the paper reviews tomorrow am
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    marke09 said:

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/871961711108116481

    If ComRes are releasing another poll before June 8th, it shouldn't be too bad for the Tories then.

    yes they are for Thursday's Independent


    I expect a bit of a late move back to the Tories in the polls, after Tories net on balance were away on holiday last week for half term in many places, irrespective of anything else. These Sun and Telegraph headlines are standard end of campaign stuff. But as we've seen at recent elections, they don't have the power that they had like in yesteryear such as 1992.

    One thing that we miss from elections these days is parties paying for adverts on billboards along major routes. They were a big thing back in 1992 but the internet / social media and sophisticated voter targeting software has rendered them redundant.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    edited June 2017
    nunu said:
    Yes - about fucking time
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    I think people are confusing where these interventions are coming from. Newspapers do big loud headlines and sensation.

    Mr Branch, on the other hand, is very possibly not doing any Conservative or media owner bidding at all.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,848
    The gloves are off...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    twitter.com/tonygallagher/status/872213718213554177

    I know bojo is popular with leavers but cartoon doesn't seem a good idea for a serious call to arms.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    nunu said:
    About time? Ok, this is far stronger and direct than seen to date, but it's about all we've been told of them to date.

    Whatever happens on Thursday, I wish the Tories had gone stronger on Labour's manifesto.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,534
    RobD said:

    Mail has gone balls deep.

    Oi, that's my line.
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,604
    Drutt said:

    Three-year lurker unlurking here. I'll start with a vote of thanks.

    1. To those PBers, especially those with their ears close to the floor, who give genuine tips and analysis. Special thanks to Meeks for the PVV/VVD shout and to whoever said to get on Macron while he was still odds-against. I know you'll all say it was you. Payouts from political bets haven't exactly bought me a new car, but they've covered my car insurance over the last 24 months.

    2. OGH, TSE and any other contributors/editors/mods. This the least douchey place on the internet for political chat, and I don't think it's a coincidence.

    3. Anyone who actually knocks on doors, stumps up a deposit or stands, for all the obvious reasons.

    4. NPXMP, who is my mum and dad's old MP. They have met you and Soubry and think you are nicer.

    How do I see the election going? Something like CON44, LAB33, LD8, for a CON maj of just under triple figures and a rough night for Tim Farron. Higher than most anticipate, and I'm led that way primarily by the anonymous tales of woe on Labour Uncut, Bloomberg etc over the last 48 hours, and a chat with a LD canvasser I know.

    If you are after a tip from someone on the internet you've never met, try LD under 10 seats, which is 2.75 with BETFRED and should be odds-on.

    Welcome.

    Thanks for the tip, but I'm sticking with the LDs under 27.5 seats at 5/6 on (from a month back).
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Evening all.

    Finally out of solitary, my thanks to Robert, isam and Mike
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    RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    RobD said:

    Mail has gone balls deep.

    Given what a Corbyn government might do to them, do they have anything to loose?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    The Daily Mail very much on the fence then?
    Maybe on page 2 it says "But they are still the best option for this country!"?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    RobD said:

    Mail has gone balls deep.

    Oi, that's my line.
    Thought it was appropriate.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Evening all.

    Finally out of solitary, my thanks to Robert, isam and Mike

    Welcome back
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927

    According to my twitter timeline, that Sun front page is proof that Murdoch and the Tories are scared that Corbyn is going to win on Thursday

    No surprises there. Are they all too young to remember The Sun sticking the boot into every opposition leader since the dawn of time - Kinnock 'lights out', Salmond 'you'll put Scotland's head in the noose'?

    Corbyn's problem is that he has given people far too much ammo with some highly unwise associations over the years, hence the attempts to clean him up will never work.
    My pub quiz team name last night was "If Jeremy Corbyn wins on Thursday, will the last person to leave Britain please turn off the lights". Got a massive round of applause - in Dubai, 3,500 miles away!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,133
    Drutt said:

    Three-year lurker unlurking here. I'll start with a vote of thanks.

    1. To those PBers, especially those with their ears close to the floor, who give genuine tips and analysis. Special thanks to Meeks for the PVV/VVD shout and to whoever said to get on Macron while he was still odds-against. I know you'll all say it was you. Payouts from political bets haven't exactly bought me a new car, but they've covered my car insurance over the last 24 months.

    2. OGH, TSE and any other contributors/editors/mods. This the least douchey place on the internet for political chat, and I don't think it's a coincidence.

    3. Anyone who actually knocks on doors, stumps up a deposit or stands, for all the obvious reasons.

    4. NPXMP, who is my mum and dad's old MP. They have met you and Soubry and think you are nicer.

    How do I see the election going? Something like CON44, LAB33, LD8, for a CON maj of just under triple figures and a rough night for Tim Farron. Higher than most anticipate, and I'm led that way primarily by the anonymous tales of woe on Labour Uncut, Bloomberg etc over the last 48 hours, and a chat with a LD canvasser I know.

    If you are after a tip from someone on the internet you've never met, try LD under 10 seats, which is 2.75 with BETFRED and should be odds-on.

    I love it when lurkers delurk - especially with a corker of a first post like that!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    hunchman said:

    marke09 said:

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/871961711108116481

    If ComRes are releasing another poll before June 8th, it shouldn't be too bad for the Tories then.

    yes they are for Thursday's Independent


    I expect a bit of a late move back to the Tories in the polls, after Tories net on balance were away on holiday last week for half term in many places, irrespective of anything else. These Sun and Telegraph headlines are standard end of campaign stuff. But as we've seen at recent elections, they don't have the power that they had like in yesteryear such as 1992.

    One thing that we miss from elections these days is parties paying for adverts on billboards along major routes. They were a big thing back in 1992 but the internet / social media and sophisticated voter targeting software has rendered them redundant.
    Not sure they called brown or miliband friends of terrorists....
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,848

    Evening all.

    Finally out of solitary, my thanks to Robert, isam and Mike

    WOW! Welcome back.

    Rod and Plato next? ;)
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.
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    RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    kle4 said:

    The Daily Mail very much on the fence then?
    Maybe on page 2 it says "But they are still the best option for this country!"?
    ....but his jams not bad.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    You would think the sun thought Corbyn had a chance.

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    AndyJS said:

    This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.

    What are they saying?
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Yorkcity said:

    You would think the sun thought Corbyn had a chance.

    They need to be smashed
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Jason said:

    Shameless looked positively fed up on Newsnight. At best, disinterested. Not someone who thinks they're going to be in government on Friday.

    Focus group on Newsnight from Walsall North* hammering May, leaning Corbyn.

    Plenty of praise for Jezza on leadership and even on security topics.

    Matches the polling... Corbynism sweeping the nation.

    *still looks as grim as I recall, I lived there for 6 months as a junior doctor. Great hospital social club booze ups in those days.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    AndyJS said:

    This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.

    Shit - all pro Corbyn?
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,496
    I don't think any of this is that controversial though? It's fairly widely acknowledged that he wanted the IRA to degeat the British; that he's friends with some pretty unsavoury types in the Middle East, that his economic and political model is Venezuela, that his attachment to democracy is rather lukewarm. His past is an open book in this regard.
    I can't imagine there's that many Daily Mail waverers who were considering voting for him upuntil they saw this, anyway.
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    GIN1138 said:

    Evening all.

    Finally out of solitary, my thanks to Robert, isam and Mike

    WOW! Welcome back.

    Rod and Plato next? ;)
    Thanks!

    Think it was down to the excellent song isam posted on my behalf last night!
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Floater said:

    Yorkcity said:

    You would think the sun thought Corbyn had a chance.

    They need to be smashed
    I agree it is a dreadful paper lying about Hillsborough.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    Floater said:
    Given how much 'Corbyn will be a disaster' copy has been written for several years now, I do wonder how they will all find the new and interesting ways to express the point. I mean, Dan Hodges managed to do daily 'Ed M is crap' columns for years somehow.

    I guess what we look for in these situations is how strident or confident a tone the editorials have.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,951
    Floater said:

    AndyJS said:

    This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.

    Shit - all pro Corbyn?
    Its Walsall.

    My model (104 majority) does not have Tories winning Walsall.

    Walsall would be c.150 majority.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Voting for Labour would be "voting for Britain's first Marxist government".
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    What will be interesting is if the mail put their front page article really prominently on their website. Remember it is one of the world's most visited websites and especially among middle class centre / centre left ladies who go for the gossip / celebrity tittle tattle.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,951

    Evening all.

    Finally out of solitary, my thanks to Robert, isam and Mike

    Welcome back Nige.

    Owe you a pint for the excellent SPIN tips on Brexit in England/Wales!
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Mortimer said:

    Floater said:

    AndyJS said:

    This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.

    Shit - all pro Corbyn?
    Its Walsall.

    My model (104 majority) does not have Tories winning Walsall.

    Walsall would be c.150 majority.
    Don't worry I am not concerned that Jezbollah and his team of trots might win
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,317
    Not sure The Mail should have featured Dianne. To most people she's that quaintly eccentric leftie who spent many years cuddling up on a sofa with Michael 'Who Dares Wins" Portillo - hardly the stuff of nightmares. Still, I'm sure Mr Dacre knows his audience.
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Yorkcity said:

    You would think the sun thought Corbyn had a chance.

    No, they will expose his flaws, Relentlessly.

    It wouldn't surprise me if they did a wrap around on election day itself.

    I certainly expect to see tactical voting advice and the like in the mail, express and sun. In 2015, they had tactical voting against Labour in the Daily Mail and the Sun.
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    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    Mortimer, that's sensational value - you could make it effectively a free bet if you backed the 10-19 band almost anywhere else. I have banned myself from the exchanges, though, for the same reason I've banned myself from getting Sky Sports when the cricket's on - I'd never go to bed, or to work.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    More from the Sun: Corbyn and McDonnell are "bad men who have spent their lives in the company of truly evil people."
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,758

    Jason said:

    Shameless looked positively fed up on Newsnight. At best, disinterested. Not someone who thinks they're going to be in government on Friday.

    Focus group on Newsnight from Walsall North* hammering May, leaning Corbyn.

    Plenty of praise for Jezza on leadership and even on security topics.

    Matches the polling... Corbynism sweeping the nation.

    *still looks as grim as I recall, I lived there for 6 months as a junior doctor. Great hospital social club booze ups in those days.
    Most notable were the number who called him 'prime ministerial' vs May.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,488

    The Daily Mail very much on the fence then?
    Not fans, then?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Not sure The Mail should have featured Dianne. To most people she's that quaintly eccentric leftie who spent many years cuddling up on a sofa with Michael 'Who Dares Wins" Portillo - hardly the stuff of nightmares. Still, I'm sure Mr Dacre knows his audience.

    Rubbish. Bugger all normal people watch the show.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    Jason said:

    Shameless looked positively fed up on Newsnight. At best, disinterested. Not someone who thinks they're going to be in government on Friday.

    Matches the polling... Corbynism sweeping the nation.
    Shouldn't he really be in the lead before it can be said to be sweeping the nation?
    Floater said:
    True, the Conservative campaign has not been flawless and Mrs May will doubtless have learnt from the experience.

    Some classic understatement there.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,325

    More from the Sun: Corbyn and McDonnell are "bad men who have spent their lives in the company of truly evil people."

    Well, the Sun should know all about truly evil people.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,951

    The Daily Mail very much on the fence then?
    Not fans, then?
    Put them down as undecided...
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Not sure The Mail should have featured Dianne. To most people she's that quaintly eccentric leftie who spent many years cuddling up on a sofa with Michael 'Who Dares Wins" Portillo - hardly the stuff of nightmares. Still, I'm sure Mr Dacre knows his audience.

    She should have stayed on This Week.

    Her and Portillo were a great duo.

    Portillo also sounded a lot more reasonable back then. Now he may as well be a parrot for CCHQ.
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262

    BLOODY HELL DAILY MAIL.

    I've just cashed out at a profit. I'd laid a Tory maj at 1.17. Got out at 1.24 and 1.25.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097
    Steve Coogan says May has 'the charisma of a pancake' at Corbyn rally in Birmingham tonight
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4578368/Jeremy-Corbyn-tells-activists-underestimated-us.html
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,951
    Floater said:

    Mortimer said:

    Floater said:

    AndyJS said:

    This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.

    Shit - all pro Corbyn?
    Its Walsall.

    My model (104 majority) does not have Tories winning Walsall.

    Walsall would be c.150 majority.
    Don't worry I am not concerned that Jezbollah and his team of trots might win
    BTW, I'm going to try and post the outputs of my model somewhere before 10pm on Thursday.
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    Well that doesn't exactly leave a lot to the imagination does it??
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    Not sure The Mail should have featured Dianne. To most people she's that quaintly eccentric leftie who spent many years cuddling up on a sofa with Michael 'Who Dares Wins" Portillo - hardly the stuff of nightmares. Still, I'm sure Mr Dacre knows his audience.

    I think Abbott has had several high profile gaffes which have, to the extent that these things do at least, cut through to regular people.

    I mean, it's only a comedy site, and one that is not really a fan of Corbyn or May, but anecdotally I bet a lot of people can appreciate this point

    FRIENDS and families torn apart by politics are coming together and healing over the crapness of Diane Abbott.

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/divided-nation-bonds-over-diane-abbotts-crapness-20170606128946
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    Shameless looked positively fed up on Newsnight. At best, disinterested. Not someone who thinks they're going to be in government on Friday.

    Matches the polling... Corbynism sweeping the nation.
    Shouldn't he really be in the lead before it can be said to be sweeping the nation?
    Floater said:
    True, the Conservative campaign has not been flawless and Mrs May will doubtless have learnt from the experience.
    Just wait for the Exit poll with Jezza ahead!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    HYUFD said:

    Steve Coogan says May has 'the charisma of a pancake' at Corbyn rally in Birmingham tonight
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4578368/Jeremy-Corbyn-tells-activists-underestimated-us.html

    Not exactly a killer burn...
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,969

    Evening all.

    Finally out of solitary, my thanks to Robert, isam and Mike

    Welcome back Nigel. Good to hear from you.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.

    What are they saying?
    Mainly pro-Corbyn and anti-May.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097
    edited June 2017
    Mortimer said:

    Floater said:

    AndyJS said:

    This Newsnight focus group doesn't match up with the opinion polls.

    Shit - all pro Corbyn?
    Its Walsall.

    My model (104 majority) does not have Tories winning Walsall.

    Walsall would be c.150 majority.
    Based on my phoning tonight I think the Tories have every chance of winning Walsall, though Walsall North is only 23rd on the Tory target list, Walsall South is 70th
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited June 2017

    Not sure The Mail should have featured Dianne. To most people she's that quaintly eccentric leftie who spent many years cuddling up on a sofa with Michael 'Who Dares Wins" Portillo - hardly the stuff of nightmares. Still, I'm sure Mr Dacre knows his audience.

    She's black and therefore she's a suitable hate target for those who are influenceable by that filthy publication, which is many millions of people. It's not as if there's an intelligence or decency of character qualification for joining the electorate.

    Much of the Daily Mail's readership won't care about social care if the question is put to them in terms of will they vote for a black woman who's trying to tell them what's what in their own country.

    Mail and Sun readers should admit who they are and get their white hoods on.

    I am still soliciting serious suggestions for where I might emigrate to. From people who wish me the best, that is. Not who would like me to get killed.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    Nigelb said:

    Jason said:

    Shameless looked positively fed up on Newsnight. At best, disinterested. Not someone who thinks they're going to be in government on Friday.

    Focus group on Newsnight from Walsall North* hammering May, leaning Corbyn.

    Plenty of praise for Jezza on leadership and even on security topics.

    Matches the polling... Corbynism sweeping the nation.

    *still looks as grim as I recall, I lived there for 6 months as a junior doctor. Great hospital social club booze ups in those days.
    Most notable were the number who called him 'prime ministerial' vs May.
    White man in a dark suit who can give good speeches with cliched contents - of course he's Prime Ministerial!
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,325

    Well that doesn't exactly leave a lot to the imagination does it??
    But why have they been keeping it a secret for so long?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    Mail and Sun finally go for it! About bloody time too.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,951

    Not sure The Mail should have featured Dianne. To most people she's that quaintly eccentric leftie who spent many years cuddling up on a sofa with Michael 'Who Dares Wins" Portillo - hardly the stuff of nightmares. Still, I'm sure Mr Dacre knows his audience.

    She should have stayed on This Week.

    Her and Portillo were a great duo.

    Portillo also sounded a lot more reasonable back then. Now he may as well be a parrot for CCHQ.
    Rubbish. Portillo is as independent a Tory as you can get.

    He is also the best PM we never had....
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Cyan said:

    Not sure The Mail should have featured Dianne. To most people she's that quaintly eccentric leftie who spent many years cuddling up on a sofa with Michael 'Who Dares Wins" Portillo - hardly the stuff of nightmares. Still, I'm sure Mr Dacre knows his audience.

    She's black and therefore she's a suitable hate target for those who are influenceable by that filthy publication, which is many millions of people. It's not as if there's an intelligence or decency of character qualification for joining the electorate.
    Nor for joining the Labour party since Ed Miliband changed the rules........
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    Shameless looked positively fed up on Newsnight. At best, disinterested. Not someone who thinks they're going to be in government on Friday.

    Matches the polling... Corbynism sweeping the nation.
    Shouldn't he really be in the lead before it can be said to be sweeping the nation?
    Floater said:
    True, the Conservative campaign has not been flawless and Mrs May will doubtless have learnt from the experience.
    Just wait for the Exit poll with Jezza ahead!
    Not an entrancing prospect. Look, if he gets smashed, maybe the LDs will get another go at trying to become the main opposition, like Farron said was the goal in the manifesto.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,951
    edited June 2017

    Not sure The Mail should have featured Dianne. To most people she's that quaintly eccentric leftie who spent many years cuddling up on a sofa with Michael 'Who Dares Wins" Portillo - hardly the stuff of nightmares. Still, I'm sure Mr Dacre knows his audience.

    You've clearly not been canvassing.

    Diane cuts through more than the other two - yet to meet anyone but a die hard Corbynista who likes her.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Mortimer said:

    Not sure The Mail should have featured Dianne. To most people she's that quaintly eccentric leftie who spent many years cuddling up on a sofa with Michael 'Who Dares Wins" Portillo - hardly the stuff of nightmares. Still, I'm sure Mr Dacre knows his audience.

    She should have stayed on This Week.

    Her and Portillo were a great duo.

    Portillo also sounded a lot more reasonable back then. Now he may as well be a parrot for CCHQ.
    Rubbish. Portillo is as independent a Tory as you can get.

    He is also the best PM we never had....
    He used to be quite independent. Not anymore.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Well that doesn't exactly leave a lot to the imagination does it??
    But why have they been keeping it a secret for so long?
    It could be Tory panic or it could be with the terrorist attacks / unhelpful half term dates means this best time to drop it.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362

    Not sure The Mail should have featured Dianne. To most people she's that quaintly eccentric leftie who spent many years cuddling up on a sofa with Michael 'Who Dares Wins" Portillo - hardly the stuff of nightmares. Still, I'm sure Mr Dacre knows his audience.

    Michael Portillo has a famous motto:

    WHO DARES WINS

    WE dare! WE will WIN!!!
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Mortimer said:

    Not sure The Mail should have featured Dianne. To most people she's that quaintly eccentric leftie who spent many years cuddling up on a sofa with Michael 'Who Dares Wins" Portillo - hardly the stuff of nightmares. Still, I'm sure Mr Dacre knows his audience.

    You've clearly not been canvassing.

    Diane cuts through more than the other two - yet to meet anyone but a die hard Corbynista who likes her.
    I overheard several people at work talking about her today - none of it remotely positive.
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4578716/Apologists-terror-Corbyn-McDonnell-Abbott.html

    The Mail has all cannons firing. And firing. And firing. Pics of bloody IRA victims, JC at CND rally, JC not singing the National Anthem, Hamas 'friends' with rocket launchers, Gerry Adams huddled with JC, more bomb victims.... anti-police stuff, immigration stuff... all in one long, long article. Bloody hell.

    I have never seen anything like it.
This discussion has been closed.