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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All you need is Gove, Gove, Gove is all you need Mrs May
Nick Timothy on April 18th vs Nick Timothy now pic.twitter.com/nUfDAdENXw
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Gove is an odious tit.
#OsBalls
Perhaps Gove as Minister without Portfolio?
The fact that the YouGov model has Stoke-on-Trent south as a tossup is baffling to me. It clearly has issues.
Backed against the Beast of Bolsover at 6-1.
'tainted Gove'
'Gove will tear us apart'
I notice the daily Telegraph are saying that Corbyn has been monitored by the security services for actions related to undermining democracy. Abbott has as well! I would never have thought that!
*subject to polls of course, which can lead to swingback to panic.
The thing is.... the LibDem voters in North Norfolk are all getting on a bit. Many of them are dying off. That's how the Tories took the Council in 2011 without putting up candidates in all the seats and retained most of those in 2015. Yes, there's been leakage in focused Council by elections since but that's where the LDs do well with their mobile troops.
A normal constituency will have a 8pc voter churn per year - that is, most people will move every 12 years. Now, I know some people move within the constituency but in places like North Norfolk a disproportionate number of them move to another place the other side of St Peter's Pearly Gates.
The point is that the number of people who remember that nice young Mr Lamb is diminishing as age claims them. And that means incumbency isn't what it was for him.
Meanwhile - in Norwich South - remember that the number of electors registered to vote in University Ward [University of East Anglia] is 35% down on what theory would suggest. And even if the youngsters had registered to vote [which they haven't], they're all on holiday now anyway.
That's the funny thing with Universities nowadays and their new fangled semesters. They break-up for the Summer hols in Mid May and don't come back until Late Sept.
So Labour's hopes of domination in the 'Southern University Towns' suffer from a double whammy that the pollsters have missed:
1 Many of the youngsters who say they'll vote for Corbyn aren;t registered to vote
2 Even if they are, they're on holiday
3 Or lusting after Jessica on Love Island
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
rcs1000 said:
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They have to be odds on. But I personally like Lamb, and were I in the constituency, I would vote for him.
http://metro.co.uk/2017/06/03/theresa-may-defends-tory-candidate-over-shocking-rape-and-homosexuality-comments-6681440/
And it sounds like Jeremy has fallen big time for it.
if this is the news tomorrow Theresa will win
Kezia never said it.
And Nicola shouldn't have leaked it.
Ummm
Philip Hammond, Jeremy Hunt and Damian Green turned up and we finished with a talk by Jim Messina who seemed confident but said 'there were more undecided voters than any campaign he had been involved in at this stage'
Starting point is the 2015 election. Assume every vote cast then will be the same the time, and then apply various factors to change the votes. Factors are applied UNS (uniform national swing).
Factors:
(1) UKIP meltdown. Assume UKIP drops to 3.8% nationally, with the votes going to both LAB and CON. For all UKIP2015 votes, into 2017, we decide that 30% remain UKIP, 20% switch to LAB and 50% switch to CON. Straight away this takes CON seats from 330 (UK2015) to 348; while LAB drop from 231 to 218. CON 348 (43%), LAB 218 (33%)
(2) LD to LAB swing. I think Farron hasn't the best campaign, and so some LD will split to LAB. Assume 20% of LD goes to LAB (high, but I want to overstate LAB in this model). Seats are now: CON 346 (43%), LAB 222 (35%)
(3) Youth surge. This extent of this has been debated, and is the main source of variance in the mainstream models. In UK2015 the 18-24 group had a turnout of 43%. What will it be in 2017, and can it win the election for LAB? There are almost 6 million voters in this range; for this model we need a fraction which will vote, and how they will vote. Lets give Survation / LAB benefit of the doubt, and assume 18-24 will have 70% turnout, splitting 70% to LAB and 15% to CON. That's about extra 1.1m votes to LAB, and 240,000 to CON. Applying UNS, we now get: CON 332 (42%), LAB 236 (37%). This is a big move, taking difference between parties from 124 to 96.
(4) LAB to CON. Not all labour voters are onboard the Corbyn train. This was evident at the start of the election, but has reduced over time, testament to the campaigning of Corbyn and appeal of his policies. So final adjustment is to add in a LAB to CON swing. At the start of the election, this might have been huge, eg, 10%, but given what's happened over course of last four weeks, we set it to 3%. This is low, and again favours LAB. So we are saying 3% of LAB are going direct to CON. Seats now: CON 342 (43%), LAB 226 (36%). This is a big effect, 20 seats have changed hands.
Final prediction. CON 342 (43%), LAB 226 (36%)
In % terms, encouraging that this matches Opinium, but instread of polling, simply follows from the reasoning above. Dodel does not take into account Scotland or Wales, nor idiosyncratic seats. But the net effect of those are likely to change this result in +-10 to CON, giving a lower end CON range of 330 to perhaps upper end of 355.
A hung parliament is possible. At the upper range of 355, its a CON majority of 30. Again, the model does favour LAB, but it would need some significant changes to the model for CON to get up 400 seats.
As for youth, even for 80% turnout, the difference amounts to swing of about 12 seats, not game changer. Can't see how the youth can change this election; just not enough of them.
Sadly, however, Gove has history with May, and she doesn't forgive history.
Gooooove
Gove on your side
2009 result
Con 1558
UKIP 1073
LDem 1058
Green 222
Lab 105
2013 result UKIP gain from Con
UKIP 1341
Con 991
LDem 851
Lab 399
Green 204
2017 result LDem gain from UKIP
LDem 1666
Con 1455
Lab 210
UKIP 202
Green 123
Conservatives do worse than in 2009 as many voters seem to move Con to UKIP to LDem
Love will tear us apart
All you need is love
*wondering where to emigrate to*
Still, I expect Labour to hold Exeter and Norwich S comfortably. LD's had candidate trouble in Bath and the university factor is a negative. I don't have anything changing hands in Cardiff - at the start of the campaign I though Labour would be in trouble in a number of the Cardiff seats.
A lot of comments have been made on OxWAb. I know it well having lived in Abingdon for 12 years. I expect a strong cut in the 9,500 majority but for Nicola Blackwood to hold. The 4k UKIP votes from last time are a crucial buffer, with the LD's starting too far behind. Still expect it to be one of the poorer Tory results in view of the relative Remain nature of the constituency.
Sun front page toxic for Jezz. Toxic.
'May threatens to dismantle human rights laws in wake of terror attacks'
That should get a debate going tomorrow
Whilst some Tories on PB might have a natural affinity for such a man, if they care for their party they will leave his career where it is. Dead.
None of that talk until at least 9pm on Thursday please. 46 hours to go.
@kevwodonnell: The First Minister of Scotland has just set the precedent that you cannot speak with her confidentially. Think about that for a second.
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2017_by_time.php
Gove
Gove on your side
Cos you got Gove
Gove
Gove on your side
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N66cGvR5yvU
https://twitter.com/twikerstan/status/871669040808431616
Just a little divine intervention
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2n-blwYJ4s