How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
Granted I am no police marksmen, but I feel fairly confident that real life is not like a movie, and it would be really bloody difficult to pull off a shot like that in a high pressure situation, and far too much of a risk.
Shooting torso in a suicide vest carries its own risks. Headshot if possible, but tricky.
Amy Winehouse's 'Back to Black' album is tremendous. 'Love Is A Losing Game' a classic
Years ago a very good friend of mine who writes gig reviews for the Guardian and Indy said "hey, come and join me, in East London, i've gotta review this young Jewish singer song writer, she's meant to be amazing, like Aretha from Camden"
I was busy drinking (or whatever) and I thought - Jewish Camden Aretha-like singer-songwriter? sounds a bit wanky - and I turned him down. The next day he told me I'd made a grave error, it was one of the best gigs he'd ever seen.
It was Amy Winehouse, of course. I never got to see her live. She was brilliantly talented.
In 1983 I was a student in London. A flatmate had a mate coming down to see a band and stay with us. I asked what they were like, and didn't think much of watching a bloke in NHS glasses waving around gladioli.
We went to the pub instead and met him afterwards. I missed the Smiths.
Ouch!
It's worth a thread in itself (after the election, when we are bored of Brexit). The Greatest Gigs We Have Missed.
I missed Joy Division backing the Buzzcocks, because I was hungover on cheap cider.
It haunts me to this day. Never saw either. Joy Division!!!
I fell asleep at my gf house and missed Oasis at Earls Court, I went home from blur at Mile End before they came on because it was raining, I only caught the last 30 mins of Prince at Koko as I was in a poker tournament...
I did see Winehouse at V festival 08 but she was absolutely trollied
The last 3 Survation/GMTV phone polls have been: 12/13 May - Con 48, Lab 30 Lead 18 19/20 May - Con 43, Lab 34 Lead 9 26/27 May - Con 43, Lab 37 Lead 6
The surge seems to have stopped, so I would imagine little change from the last poll. If the gap is closer now, I'm revising my bets!
Wasn't their last poll a 1% lead?
It was, but that was for Mail on Sunday. Not sure if their methodology is different vs their polls for GMTV.
The Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday was an online poll. The Survation poll for GMB is a phone poll, and the last poll had a 6% Tory lead
In the EU referendum it was online polls that gave better predictions. (Source.)
Reminder that Survation got GE2015 spot on in their final poll last time (albeit they didn't have the cojones to make it public at the time because they assumed it was a rogue poll)
Police Federation spokesman on news just now calling for more tasers. Guess he knows less about disabling terrorists than PB Tories.
For someone with a knife a taser might be fine, but these murderers had what looked like bomb vests (fake but nobody knew that at the time). I seriously doubt that he thinks that a taser is the right tool for that situation.
Awww Peter Sallis. Aside from Wallace he was also good in the original Ice Warriors story in Doctor Who with Patrick Troughton. I remember he best in Last of the Summer Wine, the show itself was awful but I used to watch it when I was a lad with my grandparents. Cocoa and Cleggy.
Some here will be pleased to learn he once played Samuel Pepys - though I can think of only one of us who might be old enough to have seen it...
This morning my daughter saw a picture of James II and asked if it was Samuel Pepys... 5 year olds these days...
I'm impressed she was even aware of them!
Her favourite bedtime story is the Fire of London catalogue from the Museum of London...
I'm more of a room on the broom man myself.
It's sad how the innocence has gone out of life. I immediately assumed "room on the broom" was a euphemism for some repulsively depraved act akin to TSE's changing at Baker Street.
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
Why stop there, you'll hurt them? Shoot the trigger from their hands or engage them in a sing song to persuade them of the true value of life.
Police Federation spokesman on news just now calling for more tasers. Guess he knows less about disabling terrorists than PB Tories.
Screw you, that wasn't the scenario you were presenting, you were talking about shooting their hands off for christ's sake.
I'll probably get laughed at for saying this but Madonna's Ray of Light album is still IMO amazing. Vocally at her best from the Evita voice training she did, lyrically brilliant, she was spiritually in a great place and William Orbit produced a great album.
Fantastic album, best thing Madonna ever did.
Better than Like A Prayer?
I think so yes. She has also said on several occasions she considers it her best work.
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
Why stop there, you'll hurt them? Shoot the trigger from their hands or engage them in a sing song to persuade them of the true value of life.
Police Federation spokesman on news just now calling for more tasers. Guess he knows less about disabling terrorists than PB Tories.
Tasering someone with what looks like a suicide vest on has to go down as one of the more ridiculous suggestions on this thread. And that says something. TravelJunkie and Cyan are in residence...
Reminder that Survation got GE2015 spot on in their final poll last time (albeit they didn't have the cojones to make it public at the time because they assumed it was a rogue poll)
Tory majority still holding at 1.27 on Betfair. This has to be free money surely, or is Diane's latest car crash going to send more students to the polling booths in their desperation to see her running our security services before next weekend?
Well maybe there's a 20% chance that the polls are so far out that the Tories will lose their majority.
But is there really a 10% chance that the polls are so far out that Labour will be the largest party, as the "Most Seats" market implies? Judging by electoralcalculus.co.uk, that would need a Labour lead of 6 points or so.
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
Granted I am no police marksmen, but I feel fairly confident that real life is not like a movie, and it would be really bloody difficult to pull off a shot like that in a high pressure situation, and far too much of a risk.
Shooting torso in a suicide vest carries its own risks. Headshot if possible, but tricky.
They should just use those bullets that explode/expand on impact!
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
Granted I am no police marksmen, but I feel fairly confident that real life is not like a movie, and it would be really bloody difficult to pull off a shot like that in a high pressure situation, and far too much of a risk.
Shooting torso in a suicide vest carries its own risks. Headshot if possible, but tricky.
It's all tricky so make sure you disable the threat. As they did with 50 rounds got off on Saturday. Too many what ifs will paralyse decision-making.
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
Why stop there, you'll hurt them? Shoot the trigger from their hands or engage them in a sing song to persuade them of the true value of life.
Police Federation spokesman on news just now calling for more tasers. Guess he knows less about disabling terrorists than PB Tories.
Leaving aside the question of in what way I am a Tory, read the broader long standing Police Fed arguments in favour of tasers. They are a way of giving non-specialist firearms officers a means of dealing with a nutter with a knife. If you think someone has a suicide vest, it's suboptimal to have to engage them with a taser because of the very limited range. If it's at all possible you wait for the man with a rifle who can engage at range and will, as many of us have said, most likely unload into the centre of mass or may just about try for the brain stem.
The taser point is a much wider one about knife crime.
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
Unless it's a detonator on release, dumbo.
Edit: sorry to be rude but yours was a staggeringly ignorant comment.
These guys were wielding knives, dumbo.
I know a couple if ex armed response coppers. No police force trains their operators to disable. That only happens in action movies. Aim for the centre mass, put 'em down.
I would prefer them not to be killed because I would like them to face trial and think about what they did for the rest of their lives in prison. But as they are killing people you have to stop them as quickly and reliably as you can. So that's that.
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
Why stop there, you'll hurt them? Shoot the trigger from their hands or engage them in a sing song to persuade them of the true value of life.
Police Federation spokesman on news just now calling for more tasers. Guess he knows less about disabling terrorists than PB Tories.
Leaving aside the question of in what way I am a Tory
Reminder that Survation got GE2015 spot on in their final poll last time (albeit they didn't have the cojones to make it public at the time because they assumed it was a rogue poll)
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
Unless it's a detonator on release, dumbo.
Edit: sorry to be rude but yours was a staggeringly ignorant comment.
These guys were wielding knives, dumbo.
I know a couple if ex armed response coppers. No police force trains their operators to disable. That only happens in action movies. Aim for the centre mass, put 'em down.
I would prefer them not to be killed because I would like them to face trial and think about what they did for the rest of their lives in prison. But as they are killing people you have to stop them as quickly and reliably as you can. So that's that.
Amy Winehouse's 'Back to Black' album is tremendous. 'Love Is A Losing Game' a classic
Years ago a very good friend of mine who writes gig reviews for the Guardian and Indy said "hey, come and join me, in East London, i've gotta review this young Jewish singer song writer, she's meant to be amazing, like Aretha from Camden"
I was busy drinking (or whatever) and I thought - Jewish Camden Aretha-like singer-songwriter? sounds a bit wanky - and I turned him down. The next day he told me I'd made a grave error, it was one of the best gigs he'd ever seen.
It was Amy Winehouse, of course. I never got to see her live. She was brilliantly talented.
In 1983 I was a student in London. A flatmate had a mate coming down to see a band and stay with us. I asked what they were like, and didn't think much of watching a bloke in NHS glasses waving around gladioli.
We went to the pub instead and met him afterwards. I missed the Smiths.
Ouch!
It's worth a thread in itself (after the election, when we are bored of Brexit). The Greatest Gigs We Have Missed.
I missed Joy Division backing the Buzzcocks, because I was hungover on cheap cider.
It haunts me to this day. Never saw either. Joy Division!!!
I fell asleep at my gf house and missed Oasis at Earls Court, I went home from blur at Mile End before they came on because it was raining, I only caught the last 30 mins of Prince at Koko as I was in a poker tournament...
I did see Winehouse at V festival 08 but she was absolutely trollied
Awww Peter Sallis. Aside from Wallace he was also good in the original Ice Warriors story in Doctor Who with Patrick Troughton. I remember he best in Last of the Summer Wine, the show itself was awful but I used to watch it when I was a lad with my grandparents. Cocoa and Cleggy.
Some here will be pleased to learn he once played Samuel Pepys - though I can think of only one of us who might be old enough to have seen it...
This morning my daughter saw a picture of James II and asked if it was Samuel Pepys... 5 year olds these days...
I'm impressed she was even aware of them!
Her favourite bedtime story is the Fire of London catalogue from the Museum of London...
I'm more of a room on the broom man myself.
It's sad how the innocence has gone out of life. I immediately assumed "room on the broom" was a euphemism for some repulsively depraved act akin to TSE's changing at Baker Street.
Ha. I still haven't googled that. Room on the broom is so good I even practise the voices in my head when the grandchildren aren't here.
Reminder that Survation got GE2015 spot on in their final poll last time (albeit they didn't have the cojones to make it public at the time because they assumed it was a rogue poll)
Reminder that Survation got GE2015 spot on in their final poll last time (albeit they didn't have the cojones to make it public at the time because they assumed it was a rogue poll)
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
Why stop there, you'll hurt them? Shoot the trigger from their hands or engage them in a sing song to persuade them of the true value of life.
Police Federation spokesman on news just now calling for more tasers. Guess he knows less about disabling terrorists than PB Tories.
Screw you, that wasn't the scenario you were presenting, you were talking about shooting their hands off for christ's sake.
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
Why stop there, you'll hurt them? Shoot the trigger from their hands or engage them in a sing song to persuade them of the true value of life.
Police Federation spokesman on news just now calling for more tasers. Guess he knows less about disabling terrorists than PB Tories.
Screw you, that wasn't the scenario you were presenting, you were talking about shooting their hands off for christ's sake.
Now now, you're getting angry. It's just the internet, remember?
Reminder that Survation got GE2015 spot on in their final poll last time (albeit they didn't have the cojones to make it public at the time because they assumed it was a rogue poll)
Amy Winehouse's 'Back to Black' album is tremendous. 'Love Is A Losing Game' a classic
Years ago a very good friend of mine who writes gig reviews for the Guardian and Indy said "hey, come and join me, in East London, i've gotta review this young Jewish singer song writer, she's meant to be amazing, like Aretha from Camden"
I was busy drinking (or whatever) and I thought - Jewish Camden Aretha-like singer-songwriter? sounds a bit wanky - and I turned him down. The next day he told me I'd made a grave error, it was one of the best gigs he'd ever seen.
It was Amy Winehouse, of course. I never got to see her live. She was brilliantly talented.
In 1983 I was a student in London. A flatmate had a mate coming down to see a band and stay with us. I asked what they were like, and didn't think much of watching a bloke in NHS glasses waving around gladioli.
We went to the pub instead and met him afterwards. I missed the Smiths.
Ouch!
It's worth a thread in itself (after the election, when we are bored of Brexit). The Greatest Gigs We Have Missed.
I missed Joy Division backing the Buzzcocks, because I was hungover on cheap cider.
It haunts me to this day. Never saw either. Joy Division!!!
I fell asleep at my gf house and missed Oasis at Earls Court, I went home from blur at Mile End before they came on because it was raining, I only caught the last 30 mins of Prince at Koko as I was in a poker tournament...
I did see Winehouse at V festival 08 but she was absolutely trollied
Bruce Springsteen in Finsbury Park. I heard him with perfect clarity in my back garden, half a mile away.
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
lol,so naive.
What if the terrorist murdering scum started running at the police,shoot his hands of lads was the cry.
It all depends. The police are trained to shoot attackers dead only when it is necessary to protect other people or themselves. In this instance we had psychopaths armed with big knives who had already slit throats or otherwise used their knives to kill people fast, and there was obvious reason to believe that they were setting about killing as many innocents as possible. The police were almost certainly right to shoot them dead, and almost certainly saved innocent lives by doing so. At Woolwich when one of the attackers who had killed the soldier ran at the police car from a distance with his knife, the police officer opened the door and shot him (with a dum-dum bullet) - in the shoulder if I recall - successfully incapacitating him, because she was able to do so.
Reminder that Survation got GE2015 spot on in their final poll last time (albeit they didn't have the cojones to make it public at the time because they assumed it was a rogue poll)
Awww Peter Sallis. Aside from Wallace he was also good in the original Ice Warriors story in Doctor Who with Patrick Troughton. I remember he best in Last of the Summer Wine, the show itself was awful but I used to watch it when I was a lad with my grandparents. Cocoa and Cleggy.
Some here will be pleased to learn he once played Samuel Pepys - though I can think of only one of us who might be old enough to have seen it...
This morning my daughter saw a picture of James II and asked if it was Samuel Pepys... 5 year olds these days...
I'm impressed she was even aware of them!
Her favourite bedtime story is the Fire of London catalogue from the Museum of London...
I'm more of a room on the broom man myself.
It's sad how the innocence has gone out of life. I immediately assumed "room on the broom" was a euphemism for some repulsively depraved act akin to TSE's changing at Baker Street.
Ha. I still haven't googled that. Room on the broom is so good I even practise the voices in my head when the grandchildren aren't here.
Is that the same author as the legendary "A squash and a squeeze" ? I read it so many times to Fox jr that I could probably still recite it from memory.
Reminder that Survation got GE2015 spot on in their final poll last time (albeit they didn't have the cojones to make it public at the time because they assumed it was a rogue poll)
Reminder that Survation got GE2015 spot on in their final poll last time (albeit they didn't have the cojones to make it public at the time because they assumed it was a rogue poll)
Amy Winehouse's 'Back to Black' album is tremendous. 'Love Is A Losing Game' a classic
Years ago a very good friend of mine who writes gig reviews for the Guardian and Indy said "hey, come and join me, in East London, i've gotta review this young Jewish singer song writer, she's meant to be amazing, like Aretha from Camden"
I was busy drinking (or whatever) and I thought - Jewish Camden Aretha-like singer-songwriter? sounds a bit wanky - and I turned him down. The next day he told me I'd made a grave error, it was one of the best gigs he'd ever seen.
It was Amy Winehouse, of course. I never got to see her live. She was brilliantly talented.
In 1983 I was a student in London. A flatmate had a mate coming down to see a band and stay with us. I asked what they were like, and didn't think much of watching a bloke in NHS glasses waving around gladioli.
We went to the pub instead and met him afterwards. I missed the Smiths.
Ouch!
It's worth a thread in itself (after the election, when we are bored of Brexit). The Greatest Gigs We Have Missed.
I missed Joy Division backing the Buzzcocks, because I was hungover on cheap cider.
It haunts me to this day. Never saw either. Joy Division!!!
I fell asleep at my gf house and missed Oasis at Earls Court, I went home from blur at Mile End before they came on because it was raining, I only caught the last 30 mins of Prince at Koko as I was in a poker tournament...
I did see Winehouse at V festival 08 but she was absolutely trollied
Blimey. I think that qualifies as a full house!
I did see Oasis at Knebworth, and Blur at V97. After Knebworth I slept the night on Kings Cross underground ticket forecourt!
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
Why stop there, you'll hurt them? Shoot the trigger from their hands or engage them in a sing song to persuade them of the true value of life.
Police Federation spokesman on news just now calling for more tasers. Guess he knows less about disabling terrorists than PB Tories.
Screw you, that wasn't the scenario you were presenting, you were talking about shooting their hands off for christ's sake.
Now now, you're getting angry. It's just the internet, remember?
Making the other side angry doesn't mean you've won some internet argument, remember? Nor does acting as though an at best tangential comment relates to one you just made, and using it to condescend. And believe me, I know a thing or two about condescension.
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
Why stop there, you'll hurt them? Shoot the trigger from their hands or engage them in a sing song to persuade them of the true value of life.
Police Federation spokesman on news just now calling for more tasers. Guess he knows less about disabling terrorists than PB Tories.
Screw you, that wasn't the scenario you were presenting, you were talking about shooting their hands off for christ's sake.
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
Why stop there, you'll hurt them? Shoot the trigger from their hands or engage them in a sing song to persuade them of the true value of life.
Police Federation spokesman on news just now calling for more tasers. Guess he knows less about disabling terrorists than PB Tories.
Screw you, that wasn't the scenario you were presenting, you were talking about shooting their hands off for christ's sake.
Now now, you're getting angry. It's just the internet, remember?
Tory majority still holding at 1.27 on Betfair. This has to be free money surely, or is Diane's latest car crash going to send more students to the polling booths in their desperation to see her running our security services before next weekend?
Well maybe there's a 20% chance that the polls are so far out that the Tories will lose their majority.
But is there really a 10% chance that the polls are so far out that Labour will be the largest party, as the "Most Seats" market implies? Judging by electoralcalculus.co.uk, that would need a Labour lead of 6 points or so.
A couple of weeks ago we mostly agreed here that the 1.1 on the majority was put-your-house-on-it value, amazing how quickly things can change.
I'm already big into the Majority at 1.25, would require not only a major polling failure but also a failure of a lot of canvassing evidence that suggests Corbyn might be piling up votes in Islington and Maidenhead where they're no use to him, but is losing massively in the marginals - especially in the Midlands and NE where there's a large UKIP vote for the blues to squeeze.
For the 1.1 on Most Seats not to come in would be the polling failure of the century, that bet is IMHO the very definition of free money at this stage. No polls this year have even come close to suggesting it, where exactly would Labour find 60-odd gains?
Reminder that Survation got GE2015 spot on in their final poll last time (albeit they didn't have the cojones to make it public at the time because they assumed it was a rogue poll)
They didn't get it right with their final published poll though.
Well exactly.
That they chose not to publish that poll makes them as a source even more questionable.
...I don't follow?
That they as a pollster make a decision on whether a poll is reliable or not based on whether it looks ''right'' makes me trust them less.
It doesn't say much for their guts (or lack thereof) that they weren't willing to take a risk by making it public at the time - but, in terms of assessing their accuracy, surely the crucial point is that they were the only pollster who had a methodology that came close to projecting the final result?
Unless the suspicion is that they outright faked the final poll numbers after election day?
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
Why stop there, you'll hurt them? Shoot the trigger from their hands or engage them in a sing song to persuade them of the true value of life.
Police Federation spokesman on news just now calling for more tasers. Guess he knows less about disabling terrorists than PB Tories.
Screw you, that wasn't the scenario you were presenting, you were talking about shooting their hands off for christ's sake.
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
Why stop there, you'll hurt them? Shoot the trigger from their hands or engage them in a sing song to persuade them of the true value of life.
Police Federation spokesman on news just now calling for more tasers. Guess he knows less about disabling terrorists than PB Tories.
Screw you, that wasn't the scenario you were presenting, you were talking about shooting their hands off for christ's sake.
Now now, you're getting angry. It's just the internet, remember?
He has been getting tetchy lately
With respect, my tetchiness was to do with the presentation of one piece of information as being equivalent to another, which it wasn't, and using it to insult people as though they had responded to the latter rather than the former example.
Making an emotional point on occasion doesn't diminish the point. Sometimes emotional reactions are the most appropriate, and faux detached rationality not the most appropriate.
I'm pretty confident that even in my bedwetting phase my civility has stood up better than many others, if you'll permit some smug self satisfaction.
"Karen carpenter has the best voice of all time for me."
Now you're talking. Number two is probably Joan Baez.
I haven't heard much of JB. I'll listen out for her. What's her best known song?
There's this little little robot. In a forest, in a dome, in deep space. With a child's watering can. And he's the only one left, in the only forest left. In the whole universe. Ever. And he picks up the can and starts to tend, as the dome drifts into the dark. And then the music kicks in....
Awww Peter Sallis. Aside from Wallace he was also good in the original Ice Warriors story in Doctor Who with Patrick Troughton. I remember he best in Last of the Summer Wine, the show itself was awful but I used to watch it when I was a lad with my grandparents. Cocoa and Cleggy.
Some here will be pleased to learn he once played Samuel Pepys - though I can think of only one of us who might be old enough to have seen it...
This morning my daughter saw a picture of James II and asked if it was Samuel Pepys... 5 year olds these days...
I'm impressed she was even aware of them!
Her favourite bedtime story is the Fire of London catalogue from the Museum of London...
I'm more of a room on the broom man myself.
It's sad how the innocence has gone out of life. I immediately assumed "room on the broom" was a euphemism for some repulsively depraved act akin to TSE's changing at Baker Street.
Ha. I still haven't googled that. Room on the broom is so good I even practise the voices in my head when the grandchildren aren't here.
Is that the same author as the legendary "A squash and a squeeze" ? I read it so many times to Fox jr that I could probably still recite it from memory.
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
Granted I am no police marksmen, but I feel fairly confident that real life is not like a movie, and it would be really bloody difficult to pull off a shot like that in a high pressure situation, and far too much of a risk.
Shooting torso in a suicide vest carries its own risks. Headshot if possible, but tricky.
It's all tricky so make sure you disable the threat. As they did with 50 rounds got off on Saturday. Too many what ifs will paralyse decision-making.
It does sound as if one of the 7 victims caught a stray police bullet. Still the right thing to do.
Tory majority still holding at 1.27 on Betfair. This has to be free money surely, or is Diane's latest car crash going to send more students to the polling booths in their desperation to see her running our security services before next weekend?
Well maybe there's a 20% chance that the polls are so far out that the Tories will lose their majority.
But is there really a 10% chance that the polls are so far out that Labour will be the largest party, as the "Most Seats" market implies? Judging by electoralcalculus.co.uk, that would need a Labour lead of 6 points or so.
A couple of weeks ago we mostly agreed here that the 1.1 on the majority was put-your-house-on-it value, amazing how quickly things can change.
I'm already big into the Majority at 1.25, would require not only a major polling failure but also a failure of a lot of canvassing evidence that suggests Corbyn might be piling up votes in Islington and Maidenhead where they're no use to him, but is losing massively in the marginals - especially in the Midlands and NE where there's a large UKIP vote for the blues to squeeze.
For the 1.1 on Most Seats not to come in would be the polling failure of the century, that bet is IMHO the very definition of free money at this stage. No polls this year have even come close to suggesting it, where exactly would Labour find 60-odd gains?
Betfair now 1.3 for Conservative Majority. Anybody know why?
Amy Winehouse's 'Back to Black' album is tremendous. 'Love Is A Losing Game' a classic
Years ago a very good friend of mine who writes gig reviews for the Guardian and Indy said "hey, come and join me, in East London, i've gotta review this young Jewish singer song writer, she's meant to be amazing, like Aretha from Camden"
I was busy drinking (or whatever) and I thought - Jewish Camden Aretha-like singer-songwriter? sounds a bit wanky - and I turned him down. The next day he told me I'd made a grave error, it was one of the best gigs he'd ever seen.
It was Amy Winehouse, of course. I never got to see her live. She was brilliantly talented.
In 1983 I was a student in London. A flatmate had a mate coming down to see a band and stay with us. I asked what they were like, and didn't think much of watching a bloke in NHS glasses waving around gladioli.
We went to the pub instead and met him afterwards. I missed the Smiths.
Ouch!
It's worth a thread in itself (after the election, when we are bored of Brexit). The Greatest Gigs We Have Missed.
I missed Joy Division backing the Buzzcocks, because I was hungover on cheap cider.
It haunts me to this day. Never saw either. Joy Division!!!
I fell asleep at my gf house and missed Oasis at Earls Court, I went home from blur at Mile End before they came on because it was raining, I only caught the last 30 mins of Prince at Koko as I was in a poker tournament...
I did see Winehouse at V festival 08 but she was absolutely trollied
Blimey. I think that qualifies as a full house!
I did see Oasis at Knebworth, and Blur at V97. After Knebworth I slept that night on Kings Cross underground ticket forecourt!
I was getting the train back to Suffolk from V-Fest (Chelmsford). It' 11.30. Near Colchester a man stumbles down the train, asks if he's going the right way.
Reminder that Survation got GE2015 spot on in their final poll last time (albeit they didn't have the cojones to make it public at the time because they assumed it was a rogue poll)
They didn't get it right with their final published poll though.
Well exactly.
That they chose not to publish that poll makes them as a source even more questionable.
...I don't follow?
That they as a pollster make a decision on whether a poll is reliable or not based on whether it looks ''right'' makes me trust them less.
It doesn't say much for their guts (or lack thereof) that they weren't willing to take a risk by making it public at the time - but, in terms of assessing their accuracy, surely the crucial point is that they were the only pollster who had a methodology that came close to projecting the final result?
Unless the suspicion is that they outright faked the final poll numbers after election day?
Their methodology generally produced results which contradicted the final result. That one unpublished poll did not is likely to be accidental more than a product of the 'greatness' of their methodology. Otherwise, it wouldn't have produced VIs which consistently contradicted the eventual GE result.
It doesn't say much for their guts (or lack thereof) that they weren't willing to take a risk by making it public at the time - but, in terms of assessing their accuracy, surely the crucial point is that they were the only pollster who had a methodology that came close to projecting the final result?
Unless the suspicion is that they outright faked the final poll numbers after election day?
Tory majority still holding at 1.27 on Betfair. This has to be free money surely, or is Diane's latest car crash going to send more students to the polling booths in their desperation to see her running our security services before next weekend?
Well maybe there's a 20% chance that the polls are so far out that the Tories will lose their majority.
But is there really a 10% chance that the polls are so far out that Labour will be the largest party, as the "Most Seats" market implies? Judging by electoralcalculus.co.uk, that would need a Labour lead of 6 points or so.
A couple of weeks ago we mostly agreed here that the 1.1 on the majority was put-your-house-on-it value, amazing how quickly things can change.
I'm already big into the Majority at 1.25, would require not only a major polling failure but also a failure of a lot of canvassing evidence that suggests Corbyn might be piling up votes in Islington and Maidenhead where they're no use to him, but is losing massively in the marginals - especially in the Midlands and NE where there's a large UKIP vote for the blues to squeeze.
For the 1.1 on Most Seats not to come in would be the polling failure of the century, that bet is IMHO the very definition of free money at this stage. No polls this year have even come close to suggesting it, where exactly would Labour find 60-odd gains?
Betfair now 1.3 for Conservative Majority. Anybody know why?
Tory majority still holding at 1.27 on Betfair. This has to be free money surely, or is Diane's latest car crash going to send more students to the polling booths in their desperation to see her running our security services before next weekend?
Well maybe there's a 20% chance that the polls are so far out that the Tories will lose their majority.
But is there really a 10% chance that the polls are so far out that Labour will be the largest party, as the "Most Seats" market implies? Judging by electoralcalculus.co.uk, that would need a Labour lead of 6 points or so.
A couple of weeks ago we mostly agreed here that the 1.1 on the majority was put-your-house-on-it value, amazing how quickly things can change.
I'm already big into the Majority at 1.25, would require not only a major polling failure but also a failure of a lot of canvassing evidence that suggests Corbyn might be piling up votes in Islington and Maidenhead where they're no use to him, but is losing massively in the marginals - especially in the Midlands and NE where there's a large UKIP vote for the blues to squeeze.
For the 1.1 on Most Seats not to come in would be the polling failure of the century, that bet is IMHO the very definition of free money at this stage. No polls this year have even come close to suggesting it, where exactly would Labour find 60-odd gains?
Betfair now 1.3 for Conservative Majority. Anybody know why?
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
You never watched "Speed"?
Hollywood's version of reality was denigrated earlier in the discussion.
Tory majority still holding at 1.27 on Betfair. This has to be free money surely, or is Diane's latest car crash going to send more students to the polling booths in their desperation to see her running our security services before next weekend?
Well maybe there's a 20% chance that the polls are so far out that the Tories will lose their majority.
But is there really a 10% chance that the polls are so far out that Labour will be the largest party, as the "Most Seats" market implies? Judging by electoralcalculus.co.uk, that would need a Labour lead of 6 points or so.
A couple of weeks ago we mostly agreed here that the 1.1 on the majority was put-your-house-on-it value, amazing how quickly things can change.
I'm already big into the Majority at 1.25, would require not only a major polling failure but also a failure of a lot of canvassing evidence that suggests Corbyn might be piling up votes in Islington and Maidenhead where they're no use to him, but is losing massively in the marginals - especially in the Midlands and NE where there's a large UKIP vote for the blues to squeeze.
For the 1.1 on Most Seats not to come in would be the polling failure of the century, that bet is IMHO the very definition of free money at this stage. No polls this year have even come close to suggesting it, where exactly would Labour find 60-odd gains?
Yes, that was my feeling. It would require a much bigger polling error than last time. YouGov's huge model still has the Tories 37 seats ahead of Labour.
1.25 for the majority maybe doesn't seem wholly unreasonable, given the uncertainties about the polls. But 1.1 for most seats looks much better value.
What is it with left wingers and violence on behalf of the State? It is the most stark contrast between their student union right on fantasies, and the real world.
Tory majority still holding at 1.27 on Betfair. This has to be free money surely, or is Diane's latest car crash going to send more students to the polling booths in their desperation to see her running our security services before next weekend?
Well maybe there's a 20% chance that the polls are so far out that the Tories will lose their majority.
But is there really a 10% chance that the polls are so far out that Labour will be the largest party, as the "Most Seats" market implies? Judging by electoralcalculus.co.uk, that would need a Labour lead of 6 points or so.
A couple of weeks ago we mostly agreed here that the 1.1 on the majority was put-your-house-on-it value, amazing how quickly things can change.
I'm already big into the Majority at 1.25, would require not only a major polling failure but also a failure of a lot of canvassing evidence that suggests Corbyn might be piling up votes in Islington and Maidenhead where they're no use to him, but is losing massively in the marginals - especially in the Midlands and NE where there's a large UKIP vote for the blues to squeeze.
For the 1.1 on Most Seats not to come in would be the polling failure of the century, that bet is IMHO the very definition of free money at this stage. No polls this year have even come close to suggesting it, where exactly would Labour find 60-odd gains?
Betfair now 1.3 for Conservative Majority. Anybody know why?
Survation phone for GMB will show the Tory lead down to 1.1% from 5.8% last week.
Officially released at 00.01 but discussed on the Sky News paper review.
Con maj has drifted to 1.29-1.3 at Betfair, implying a 23% probability that the Tories will lose their majority. The price will probably drift further when more bettors get to hear of the Survation poll.
Tory majority still holding at 1.27 on Betfair. This has to be free money surely, or is Diane's latest car crash going to send more students to the polling booths in their desperation to see her running our security services before next weekend?
Well maybe there's a 20% chance that the polls are so far out that the Tories will lose their majority.
But is there really a 10% chance that the polls are so far out that Labour will be the largest party, as the "Most Seats" market implies? Judging by electoralcalculus.co.uk, that would need a Labour lead of 6 points or so.
A couple of weeks ago we mostly agreed here that the 1.1 on the majority was put-your-house-on-it value, amazing how quickly things can change.
I'm already big into the Majority at 1.25, would require not only a major polling failure but also a failure of a lot of canvassing evidence that suggests Corbyn might be piling up votes in Islington and Maidenhead where they're no use to him, but is losing massively in the marginals - especially in the Midlands and NE where there's a large UKIP vote for the blues to squeeze.
For the 1.1 on Most Seats not to come in would be the polling failure of the century, that bet is IMHO the very definition of free money at this stage. No polls this year have even come close to suggesting it, where exactly would Labour find 60-odd gains?
Betfair now 1.3 for Conservative Majority. Anybody know why?
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
Granted I am no police marksmen, but I feel fairly confident that real life is not like a movie, and it would be really bloody difficult to pull off a shot like that in a high pressure situation, and far too much of a risk.
Shooting torso in a suicide vest carries its own risks. Headshot if possible, but tricky.
It's all tricky so make sure you disable the threat. As they did with 50 rounds got off on Saturday. Too many what ifs will paralyse decision-making.
It does sound as if one of the 7 victims caught a stray police bullet. Still the right thing to do.
There appears to be conflicting stories about that as elsewhere I've seen it stated that the bystander shot in the head should recover fine. I guess its not the sort of thing they want to publicise at the moment.
Awww Peter Sallis. Aside from Wallace he was also good in the original Ice Warriors story in Doctor Who with Patrick Troughton. I remember he best in Last of the Summer Wine, the show itself was awful but I used to watch it when I was a lad with my grandparents. Cocoa and Cleggy.
Some here will be pleased to learn he once played Samuel Pepys - though I can think of only one of us who might be old enough to have seen it...
This morning my daughter saw a picture of James II and asked if it was Samuel Pepys... 5 year olds these days...
I'm impressed she was even aware of them!
Her favourite bedtime story is the Fire of London catalogue from the Museum of London...
I'm more of a room on the broom man myself.
It's sad how the innocence has gone out of life. I immediately assumed "room on the broom" was a euphemism for some repulsively depraved act akin to TSE's changing at Baker Street.
Ha. I still haven't googled that. Room on the broom is so good I even practise the voices in my head when the grandchildren aren't here.
Is that the same author as the legendary "A squash and a squeeze" ? I read it so many times to Fox jr that I could probably still recite it from memory.
I still feel Dr Seuss' I Had Trouble in Getting to Solla Sollew has never been bettered...
Tory majority still holding at 1.27 on Betfair. This has to be free money surely, or is Diane's latest car crash going to send more students to the polling booths in their desperation to see her running our security services before next weekend?
Well maybe there's a 20% chance that the polls are so far out that the Tories will lose their majority.
But is there really a 10% chance that the polls are so far out that Labour will be the largest party, as the "Most Seats" market implies? Judging by electoralcalculus.co.uk, that would need a Labour lead of 6 points or so.
A couple of weeks ago we mostly agreed here that the 1.1 on the majority was put-your-house-on-it value, amazing how quickly things can change.
I'm already big into the Majority at 1.25, would require not only a major polling failure but also a failure of a lot of canvassing evidence that suggests Corbyn might be piling up votes in Islington and Maidenhead where they're no use to him, but is losing massively in the marginals - especially in the Midlands and NE where there's a large UKIP vote for the blues to squeeze.
For the 1.1 on Most Seats not to come in would be the polling failure of the century, that bet is IMHO the very definition of free money at this stage. No polls this year have even come close to suggesting it, where exactly would Labour find 60-odd gains?
Betfair now 1.3 for Conservative Majority. Anybody know why?
Survation phone for GMB will show the Tory lead down to 1.1% from 5.8% last week.
Officially released at 00.01 but discussed on the Sky News paper review.
If the exact numbers are 41.5% and 40.4%, does that mean it will be rounded to 42/40 and thus will be treated as a 2% lead
Con maj has drifted to 1.29-1.3 at Betfair, implying a 23% probability that the Tories will lose their majority. The price will probably drift further when more bettors get to hear of the Survation poll.
Implies the punters think there is a 23% chance...
Car crash even for Abbott. I wonder if her confidence is like totally shot? Clearly behind the scenes they didn't want her out there. Then it looks like they wheeled her out probably because they questioned why she wasn't out there.
Abbott's always patronising attitude when answering questions reveals she does not lack for confidence, i think.
Normally I would agree but this was really bad. I have seen her slip up in an interview before but this was a complete mess. If your colleagues don't want you out there doing interviews it could knock your confidence even if you tell yourself you can do this.
If you want another dose of the almost obligatory car crash appearance she's first pick on Woman's Hour tomorrow, put up against a panel of women candidates from all the other parties. God almighty, can't she just be put out to grass for a few days? Any Labour woman, from any wing of the party, could do a far better job.
Sunday's YouGov How good or bad an election campaign do you think the following politicians have had? Jeremy Corbyn: Good 48% Bad 18% Theresa May: Good 20% Bad 48% Paul Nuttall: Good 4% Bad 36% Diane Abbott: Good 2% Bad 54%
Amy Winehouse's 'Back to Black' album is tremendous. 'Love Is A Losing Game' a classic
Years ago a very good friend of mine who writes gig reviews for the Guardian and Indy said "hey, come and join me, in East London, i've gotta review this young Jewish singer song writer, she's meant to be amazing, like Aretha from Camden"
I was busy drinking (or whatever) and I thought - Jewish Camden Aretha-like singer-songwriter? sounds a bit wanky - and I turned him down. The next day he told me I'd made a grave error, it was one of the best gigs he'd ever seen.
It was Amy Winehouse, of course. I never got to see her live. She was brilliantly talented.
In 1983 I was a student in London. A flatmate had a mate coming down to see a band and stay with us. I asked what they were like, and didn't think much of watching a bloke in NHS glasses waving around gladioli.
We went to the pub instead and met him afterwards. I missed the Smiths.
Ouch!
It's worth a thread in itself (after the election, when we are bored of Brexit). The Greatest Gigs We Have Missed.
I missed Joy Division backing the Buzzcocks, because I was hungover on cheap cider.
It haunts me to this day. Never saw either. Joy Division!!!
I ..
I did see Winehouse at V festival 08 but she was absolutely trollied
Blimey. I think that qualifies as a full house!
I did see Oasis at Knebworth, and Blur at V97. After Knebworth I slept that night on Kings Cross underground ticket forecourt!
I was getting the train back to Suffolk from V-Fest (Chelmsford). It' 11.30. Near Colchester a man stumbles down the train, asks if he's going the right way.
How does that work with a would-be suicide bomber? You can't wing them and hope they don't trigger the bomb. Shooting them in the head is the sensible thing to do.
Hard to trigger a bomb if you have no hands left.
lol,so naive.
What if the terrorist murdering scum started running at the police,shoot his hands of lads was the cry.
It all depends. The police are trained to shoot attackers dead only when it is necessary to protect other people or themselves. In this instance we had psychopaths armed with big knives who had already slit throats or otherwise used their knives to kill people fast, and there was obvious reason to believe that they were setting about killing as many innocents as possible. The police were almost certainly right to shoot them dead, and almost certainly saved innocent lives by doing so. At Woolwich when one of the attackers who had killed the soldier ran at the police car from a distance with his knife, the police officer opened the door and shot him (with a dum-dum bullet) - in the shoulder if I recall - successfully incapacitating him, because she was able to do so.
I disagree with almost everything you usually say, but you're spot on here.
Arguments about using tasers against someone with a knife is for your typical gangland scenario, not a terrorist with (as far as you're concerned) a bomb strapped to him slashing a large blade around. Great response from the police, I heard that six armed officers discharged 50 bullets and only one missed the three suspects. Hope the compulsory firearms investigation and counselling can be done quickly and these brave officers can get back to duty.
Awww Peter Sallis. Aside from Wallace he was also good in the original Ice Warriors story in Doctor Who with Patrick Troughton. I remember he best in Last of the Summer Wine, the show itself was awful but I used to watch it when I was a lad with my grandparents. Cocoa and Cleggy.
Some here will be pleased to learn he once played Samuel Pepys - though I can think of only one of us who might be old enough to have seen it...
This morning my daughter saw a picture of James II and asked if it was Samuel Pepys... 5 year olds these days...
I'm impressed she was even aware of them!
Her favourite bedtime story is the Fire of London catalogue from the Museum of London...
I'm more of a room on the broom man myself.
It's sad how the innocence has gone out of life. I immediately assumed "room on the broom" was a euphemism for some repulsively depraved act akin to TSE's changing at Baker Street.
Ha. I still haven't googled that. Room on the broom is so good I even practise the voices in my head when the grandchildren aren't here.
Is that the same author as the legendary "A squash and a squeeze" ? I read it so many times to Fox jr that I could probably still recite it from memory.
I still feel Dr Seuss' I Had Trouble in Getting to Solla Sollew has never been bettered...
Reminder that Survation got GE2015 spot on in their final poll last time (albeit they didn't have the cojones to make it public at the time because they assumed it was a rogue poll)
They didn't get it right with their final published poll though.
Well exactly.
That they chose not to publish that poll makes them as a source even more questionable.
...I don't follow?
That they as a pollster make a decision on whether a poll is reliable or not based on whether it looks ''right'' makes me trust them less.
It doesn't say much for their guts (or lack thereof) that they weren't willing to take a risk by making it public at the time - but, in terms of assessing their accuracy, surely the crucial point is that they were the only pollster who had a methodology that came close to projecting the final result?
Unless the suspicion is that they outright faked the final poll numbers after election day?
A perfect methology can have outliers that are wrong. A nonsense methodology can have outliers that give the right result.
Tory majority still holding at 1.27 on Betfair. This has to be free money surely, or is Diane's latest car crash going to send more students to the polling booths in their desperation to see her running our security services before next weekend?
Well maybe there's a 20% chance that the polls are so far out that the Tories will lose their majority.
But is there really a 10% chance that the polls are so far out that Labour will be the largest party, as the "Most Seats" market implies? Judging by electoralcalculus.co.uk, that would need a Labour lead of 6 points or so.
A couple of weeks ago we mostly agreed here that the 1.1 on the majority was put-your-house-on-it value, amazing how quickly things can change.
I'm already big into the Majority at 1.25, would require not only a major polling failure but also a failure of a lot of canvassing evidence that suggests Corbyn might be piling up votes in Islington and Maidenhead where they're no use to him, but is losing massively in the marginals - especially in the Midlands and NE where there's a large UKIP vote for the blues to squeeze.
For the 1.1 on Most Seats not to come in would be the polling failure of the century, that bet is IMHO the very definition of free money at this stage. No polls this year have even come close to suggesting it, where exactly would Labour find 60-odd gains?
Betfair now 1.3 for Conservative Majority. Anybody know why?
Survation phone for GMB will show the Tory lead down to 1.1% from 5.8% last week.
Officially released at 00.01 but discussed on the Sky News paper review.
If the exact numbers are 41.5% and 40.4%, does that mean it will be rounded to 42/40 and thus will be treated as a 2% lead
Regarding Diane Abbott's latest car crash interview...
It's just possible she woke up one morning and realised the only thing worse than losing on Thursday would be winning, and being propelled into a role for which she is unsuited, having been an effective and successful constituency MP for the last thirty years.
There's no disgrace in being a shadow minister, or pursuing a life of perpetual opposition, as long as you're effective in keeping the government on its toes. I remember the emergency debate in the Commons on the Saturday after the Falklands invasion, with Michael Foot leaping up and down, condemning Thatcher for throwing our kith and kin under the fascist jackboot (or words to that effect).
Foot could never, in a hundred years, have organised the liberation of the Falklands. But he goaded Thatcher into doing so, and between the two of them they reached a conclusion that was satisfactory to most Britons. This is the role of constructive Opposition in a democracy. I don't believe the current Labour leadership could possibly form a government, but their greater failure would be their inability to press ministers continually to try harder.
Tory majority still holding at 1.27 on Betfair. This has to be free money surely, or is Diane's latest car crash going to send more students to the polling booths in their desperation to see her running our security services before next weekend?
Well maybe there's a 20% chance that the polls are so far out that the Tories will lose their majority.
But is there really a 10% chance that the polls are so far out that Labour will be the largest party, as the "Most Seats" market implies? Judging by electoralcalculus.co.uk, that would need a Labour lead of 6 points or so.
A couple of weeks ago we mostly agreed here that the 1.1 on the majority was put-your-house-on-it value, amazing how quickly things can change.
I'm already big into the Majority at 1.25, would require not only a major polling failure but also a failure of a lot of canvassing evidence that suggests Corbyn might be piling up votes in Islington and Maidenhead where they're no use to him, but is losing massively in the marginals - especially in the Midlands and NE where there's a large UKIP vote for the blues to squeeze.
For the 1.1 on Most Seats not to come in would be the polling failure of the century, that bet is IMHO the very definition of free money at this stage. No polls this year have even come close to suggesting it, where exactly would Labour find 60-odd gains?
Betfair now 1.3 for Conservative Majority. Anybody know why?
Tory majority still holding at 1.27 on Betfair. This has to be free money surely, or is Diane's latest car crash going to send more students to the polling booths in their desperation to see her running our security services before next weekend?
Well maybe there's a 20% chance that the polls are so far out that the Tories will lose their majority.
For the 1.1 on Most Seats not to come in would be the polling failure of the century, that bet is IMHO the very definition of free money at this stage. No polls this year have even come close to suggesting it, where exactly would Labour find 60-odd gains?
Betfair now 1.3 for Conservative Majority. Anybody know why?
Tory majority still holding at 1.27 on Betfair. This has to be free money surely, or is Diane's latest car crash going to send more students to the polling booths in their desperation to see her running our security services before next weekend?
Well maybe there's a 20% chance that the polls are so far out that the Tories will lose their majority.
But is there really a 10% chance that the polls are so far out that Labour will be the largest party, as the "Most Seats" market implies? Judging by electoralcalculus.co.uk, that would need a Labour lead of 6 points or so.
A couple of weeks ago we mostly agreed here that the 1.1 on the majority was put-your-house-on-it value, amazing how quickly things can change.
I'm already big into the Majority at 1.25, would require not only a major polling failure but also a failure of a lot of canvassing evidence that suggests Corbyn might be piling up votes in Islington and Maidenhead where they're no use to him, but is losing massively in the marginals - especially in the Midlands and NE where there's a large UKIP vote for the blues to squeeze.
For the 1.1 on Most Seats not to come in would be the polling failure of the century, that bet is IMHO the very definition of free money at this stage. No polls this year have even come close to suggesting it, where exactly would Labour find 60-odd gains?
Betfair now 1.3 for Conservative Majority. Anybody know why?
Survation phone for GMB will show the Tory lead down to 1.1% from 5.8% last week.
It's incredible. Even with a good Labour campaign and a bad Tory campaign, given we know the poor Labour scores were at least partly reflected in the reality of elections, I cannot fathom such shifts even if those shifts are only so extreme in polls, and not produced in the final result.
Its the sort of thing that makes you go 'Well, ok, I don't think it will happen to that extent, but clearly there has been a huge movement that way'. Of course itmight just total nonsense, but my brain doesn't seem able to see something without ascribing it the weight of evidence, that I cannot just discount.
Every single thing that people, even left wingers and false flaggers (the loonies who suggest that it was 'convenient' terrorist events happen, presuming it will help the Tories), think will aid the Tories, does not seem to make a difference to Labour surging or not.
And I was just feeling able to relax again and all. Sigh.
Tory majority still holding at 1.27 on Betfair. This has to be free money surely, or is Diane's latest car crash going to send more students to the polling booths in their desperation to see her running our security services before next weekend?
Well maybe there's a 20% chance that the polls are so far out that the Tories will lose their majority.
But is there really a 10% chance that the polls are so far out that Labour will be the largest party, as the "Most Seats" market implies? Judging by electoralcalculus.co.uk, that would need a Labour lead of 6 points or so.
A couple of weeks ago we mostly agreed here that the 1.1 on the majority was put-your-house-on-it value, amazing how quickly things can change.
I'm already big into the Majority at 1.25, would require not only a major polling failure but also a failure of a lot of canvassing evidence that suggests Corbyn might be piling up votes in Islington and Maidenhead where they're no use to him, but is losing massively in the marginals - especially in the Midlands and NE where there's a large UKIP vote for the blues to squeeze.
For the 1.1 on Most Seats not to come in would be the polling failure of the century, that bet is IMHO the very definition of free money at this stage. No polls this year have even come close to suggesting it, where exactly would Labour find 60-odd gains?
Betfair now 1.3 for Conservative Majority. Anybody know why?
Survation phone for GMB will show the Tory lead down to 1.1% from 5.8% last week.
Officially released at 00.01 but discussed on the Sky News paper review.
If the exact numbers are 41.5% and 40.4%, does that mean it will be rounded to 42/40 and thus will be treated as a 2% lead
Sometimes I think Abbott is there so that Tories start to get complacent again. I'm not watching her current performance, but even among my Corbynite acquaintances, who are very dimissive of the attacks on the nuclear and IRA issues, they were not fans of her.
She finished by as good as admitting she's sacked on Friday. #asmince
I believe someone teased us with tipping her to be the next Labour leader a while ago here on PB.....
Cough... I see the culprit has owned up ... not our tse surely.
What is it with left wingers and violence on behalf of the State? It is the most stark contrast between their student union right on fantasies, and the real world.
The kind of fantasy where Michael Adebolajo and Michael Adebowale were disabled, arrested, put on trial and convicted I guess.
Awww Peter Sallis. Aside from Wallace he was also good in the original Ice Warriors story in Doctor Who with Patrick Troughton. I remember he best in Last of the Summer Wine, the show itself was awful but I used to watch it when I was a lad with my grandparents. Cocoa and Cleggy.
Some here will be pleased to learn he once played Samuel Pepys - though I can think of only one of us who might be old enough to have seen it...
This morning my daughter saw a picture of James II and asked if it was Samuel Pepys... 5 year olds these days...
I'm impressed she was even aware of them!
Her favourite bedtime story is the Fire of London catalogue from the Museum of London...
I'm more of a room on the broom man myself.
It's sad how the innocence has gone out of life. I immediately assumed "room on the broom" was a euphemism for some repulsively depraved act akin to TSE's changing at Baker Street.
Why is changing at Baker Street depraved? (And I'm talking about the sex act
Whether they live or die or not is irrelevant, the key is to stop the offender.
So not shoot to kill, shoot to stop. If it takes 150 bullets and leaves behind mincemeat, so be it.
That this has to be pointed out to otherwise fairly sensible anonymous internet chat room posters beggars belief.
The Prime Minister announced she was all for 'shoot to kill' at lunchtime. I thought it seemed likea faux pas, but hasn't been picked up in the media. So no, not evyone knows.
I remember some hoo haa regarding IRA in Gibraltar in the 1980s. though not the details.
Amy Winehouse's 'Back to Black' album is tremendous. 'Love Is A Losing Game' a classic
Years ago a very good friend of mine who writes gig reviews for the Guardian and Indy said "hey, come and join me, in East London, i've gotta review this young Jewish singer song writer, she's meant to be amazing, like Aretha from Camden"
I was busy drinking (or whatever) and I thought - Jewish Camden Aretha-like singer-songwriter? sounds a bit wanky - and I turned him down. The next day he told me I'd made a grave error, it was one of the best gigs he'd ever seen.
It was Amy Winehouse, of course. I never got to see her live. She was brilliantly talented.
In 1983 I was a student in London. A flatmate had a mate coming down to see a band and stay with us. I asked what they were like, and didn't think much of watching a bloke in NHS glasses waving around gladioli.
We went to the pub instead and met him afterwards. I missed the Smiths.
I LOVE the Smiths!
Went out for a while with the brother of Steve Diggle of the Buzzcocks. Happy days at the Hacienda.......
Tory lead down to 1% but May is touring long-shot seats. What is going on?
We all know about the reliability of the polls but all or most of them have shown a massive tightening of the race - the trend is there.
Well, polls from the weekend and Monday generally indicate that the surge has stopped.
ICM polls from Saturday and Today show the lead stable, as did Saturday's ComRes poll. OBR showed the Conservative lead up. YouGov polls have also stabilised and show Tory lead continually at 4 and they are one of the worst polls for the Tories - I thought that if we were to see crossover, it'd be from them.
Opinium and Survation were the only polls on the weekend to show the 'surge' continuing, and I think that Survation have essentially produced a poll identical to one on Saturday is likely to be down to methodology and sampling. Their samples have been odd in recent weeks - they gave us 82% of young people being certain to vote recently, and 21% having watched QT on the weekend.
Tory lead down to 1% but May is touring long-shot targets. What is going on?
Could well be desperation. The only demographic she appears to have any chance of winning over is the ex-Labour WWC. And even if she wins plenty of them over, the Labour majorities in those constituencies may still be too much.
What is it with left wingers and violence on behalf of the State? It is the most stark contrast between their student union right on fantasies, and the real world.
The kind of fantasy where Michael Adebolajo and Michael Adebowale were disabled, arrested, put on trial and convicted I guess.
Going back to earlier threads, if Corbyn ends up with less than 200 seats but, as YouGov are predicting, Labour win Canterbury, would he survive as leader?
Tory majority still holding at 1.27 on Betfair. This has to be free money surely, or is Diane's latest car crash going to send more students to the polling booths in their desperation to see her running our security services before next weekend?
Well maybe there's a 20% chance that the polls are so far out that the Tories will lose their majority.
But is there really a 10% chance that the polls are so far out that Labour will be the largest party, as the "Most Seats" market implies? Judging by electoralcalculus.co.uk, that would need a Labour lead of 6 points or so.
A couple of weeks ago we mostly agreed here that the 1.1 on the majority was put-your-house-on-it value, amazing how quickly things can change.
I'm already big into the Majority at 1.25, would require not only a major polling failure but also a failure of a lot of canvassing evidence that suggests Corbyn might be piling up votes in Islington and Maidenhead where they're no use to him, but is losing massively in the marginals - especially in the Midlands and NE where there's a large UKIP vote for the blues to squeeze.
For the 1.1 on Most Seats not to come in would be the polling failure of the century, that bet is IMHO the very definition of free money at this stage. No polls this year have even come close to suggesting it, where exactly would Labour find 60-odd gains?
Betfair now 1.3 for Conservative Majority. Anybody know why?
Survation phone for GMB will show the Tory lead down to 1.1% from 5.8% last week.
Officially released at 00.01 but discussed on the Sky News paper review.
If the exact numbers are 41.5% and 40.4%, does that mean it will be rounded to 42/40 and thus will be treated as a 2% lead
I'm not sure what they do when it's exactly x.5%, but I think if it is say 41.6% against 40.4% that might indeed get reported as a 2% lead. Can't remember any newspaper reports saying 42%, 40%, 1% lead.
Tory lead down to 1% but May is touring long-shot targets. What is going on?
We all know about the reliability of the polls but all or most of them have shown a massive tightening of the race - the trend is there.
I am guessing the party don't believe the public polls and are relying on their private information, which was right last time. If it is right again, the panic will look bloody silly, and they will look like great campaigners. But of course it might not be right, and the look like idiots for listening to their private teams telling them how great they are, even as Labour surge to 2001 levels (just doesn't sound right, even with the LD collapse).
Sometimes I think Abbott is there so that Tories start to get complacent again. I'm not watching her current performance, but even among my Corbynite acquaintances, who are very dimissive of the attacks on the nuclear and IRA issues, they were not fans of her.
She finished by as good as admitting she's sacked on Friday. #asmince
I believe someone teased us with tipping her to be the next Labour leader a while ago here on PB.....
Cough... I see the culprit has owned up ... not our tse surely.
Who is worse, Roberto Soldado or Vincent Jansen?
Asking for a friend who is writing a thread for PB and wants to compare Mrs May to one of the above if she blows this election.
Comments
I did see Winehouse at V festival 08 but she was absolutely trollied
That they chose not to publish that poll makes them as a source even more questionable.
But is there really a 10% chance that the polls are so far out that Labour will be the largest party, as the "Most Seats" market implies? Judging by electoralcalculus.co.uk, that would need a Labour lead of 6 points or so.
The taser point is a much wider one about knife crime.
It is perfectly possible for both polls and canvassing to be right. They are each facets of the whole.
https://twitter.com/jonnyjenda/status/871845767010562048
Making the other side angry doesn't mean you've won some internet argument, remember? Nor does acting as though an at best tangential comment relates to one you just made, and using it to condescend. And believe me, I know a thing or two about condescension.
I'm already big into the Majority at 1.25, would require not only a major polling failure but also a failure of a lot of canvassing evidence that suggests Corbyn might be piling up votes in Islington and Maidenhead where they're no use to him, but is losing massively in the marginals - especially in the Midlands and NE where there's a large UKIP vote for the blues to squeeze.
For the 1.1 on Most Seats not to come in would be the polling failure of the century, that bet is IMHO the very definition of free money at this stage. No polls this year have even come close to suggesting it, where exactly would Labour find 60-odd gains?
Unless the suspicion is that they outright faked the final poll numbers after election day?
Making an emotional point on occasion doesn't diminish the point. Sometimes emotional reactions are the most appropriate, and faux detached rationality not the most appropriate.
I'm pretty confident that even in my bedwetting phase my civility has stood up better than many others, if you'll permit some smug self satisfaction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZ0JGjKYVdU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neCnE90rYNo
Can he be unbanned please @PBModerator?
So not shoot to kill, shoot to stop. If it takes 150 bullets and leaves behind mincemeat, so be it.
"Where's home?" we ask.
"Wolverhampton" he replies.
I was stumped...
https://youtu.be/Hv7N9rzi-CQ
Do try to keep up.
1.25 for the majority maybe doesn't seem wholly unreasonable, given the uncertainties about the polls. But 1.1 for most seats looks much better value.
Officially released at 00.01 but discussed on the Sky News paper review.
GMB supposed to be embargoed till midnight
We all know about the reliability of the polls but all or most of them have shown a massive tightening of the race - the trend is there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGmvXGBBfjs
Sunday's YouGov
How good or bad an election campaign do you
think the following politicians have had?
Jeremy Corbyn: Good 48% Bad 18%
Theresa May: Good 20% Bad 48%
Paul Nuttall: Good 4% Bad 36%
Diane Abbott: Good 2% Bad 54%
Arguments about using tasers against someone with a knife is for your typical gangland scenario, not a terrorist with (as far as you're concerned) a bomb strapped to him slashing a large blade around. Great response from the police, I heard that six armed officers discharged 50 bullets and only one missed the three suspects. Hope the compulsory firearms investigation and counselling can be done quickly and these brave officers can get back to duty.
and of course "Fox in Socks"
Survation: 1% lead
Not very helpful from a betting point of view.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/871813606735659008
It's just possible she woke up one morning and realised the only thing worse than losing on Thursday would be winning, and being propelled into a role for which she is unsuited, having been an effective and successful constituency MP for the last thirty years.
There's no disgrace in being a shadow minister, or pursuing a life of perpetual opposition, as long as you're effective in keeping the government on its toes. I remember the emergency debate in the Commons on the Saturday after the Falklands invasion, with Michael Foot leaping up and down, condemning Thatcher for throwing our kith and kin under the fascist jackboot (or words to that effect).
Foot could never, in a hundred years, have organised the liberation of the Falklands. But he goaded Thatcher into doing so, and between the two of them they reached a conclusion that was satisfactory to most Britons. This is the role of constructive Opposition in a democracy. I don't believe the current Labour leadership could possibly form a government, but their greater failure would be their inability to press ministers continually to try harder.
Its the sort of thing that makes you go 'Well, ok, I don't think it will happen to that extent, but clearly there has been a huge movement that way'. Of course itmight just total nonsense, but my brain doesn't seem able to see something without ascribing it the weight of evidence, that I cannot just discount.
Every single thing that people, even left wingers and false flaggers (the loonies who suggest that it was 'convenient' terrorist events happen, presuming it will help the Tories), think will aid the Tories, does not seem to make a difference to Labour surging or not.
And I was just feeling able to relax again and all. Sigh.
I remember some hoo haa regarding IRA in Gibraltar in the 1980s. though not the details.
I see the AoC and various Imams were saying the same as I was on earlier threads. I LOVE the Smiths!
Went out for a while with the brother of Steve Diggle of the Buzzcocks. Happy days at the Hacienda.......
What fun it all was!
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
ICM polls from Saturday and Today show the lead stable, as did Saturday's ComRes poll. OBR showed the Conservative lead up. YouGov polls have also stabilised and show Tory lead continually at 4 and they are one of the worst polls for the Tories - I thought that if we were to see crossover, it'd be from them.
Opinium and Survation were the only polls on the weekend to show the 'surge' continuing, and I think that Survation have essentially produced a poll identical to one on Saturday is likely to be down to methodology and sampling. Their samples have been odd in recent weeks - they gave us 82% of young people being certain to vote recently, and 21% having watched QT on the weekend.
Asking for a friend who is writing a thread for PB and wants to compare Mrs May to one of the above if she blows this election.