For the record my prediction is the Tories to win by 10%
And a majority around 80-120
Think a 10% lead might be right, but personally think that would only yield a majority of about 50. Really am not convinced the Tory vote is going to be distributed that efficiently.
It appears Trump's son in law and major advisor Jared Kushner is having a chat today with law enforcement about overseas links.
At the moment I am feeling slightly fuzzy due to not one, but two bangs on the head earlier this evening but I'll say it again regarding Trump, despite others scepticism.
The man is in way over his head with those Russians and its liable to drown him.
This Survation is exactly the same as the lead they had on Saturday and mainly taken pre terror attack, ICM today had the Tories 11% ahead properly turnout weighted unlike Survation. In 2015 Survation had the Tories on 31% in their final poll, in the end the Tories got 37%.
All the pollsters presumably think they have fixed the reasons they got it wrong last time - the question will be whether they have in fact done so.
ICM and Comres probably have, the others better hope Corbyn really does see a youth surge on Thursday in key marginal seats and not just the inner cities and university towns otherwise they will have a lot of questions to answer on Friday
@kle4 The trend over the course the GE is that Tory lead is narrowing yes. But the trend since the weekend is that narrowing has stopped and that the lead across most of the polls has essentially stabilised, which is my point.
And why are the ones that stopped more likely to be right than the ones which haven't? I happen to think they're more likely to be right based on other factors, but that doesn't mean I cannot feel concern that alternate movement is picked up by someone else.
I'd be concerned if we saw a 5 point Lab lead, though that'd be much easier to feel comfortable dismissing.
Survation is the only pollster to record a 1pt lead. No other has gone lower than 3% (YouGov, just once).
I'd want to see a second pollster replicating Survation's findings before regarding them as anything other than outliers.
I liked Nate Silver's article on the subject. For those that missed it:
And for those too lazy to read it, he's suggesting you take an average of all the polls, which in this case would give a lead of about 7%.
I don't believe it will be 1%, I do think it an outlier. But an outlier by how much is where the concern comes in - a narrowing of the gap from last time between Tory and Lab is another thing that helps Corbyn stay on.
Corbyn's staying. Why wouldn't he? He's played a blinder.
I wonder whether the saudi axis is taking their lead from trump, or taking advantage of US government dysfunction.
The tectonic plates in the ME do seem to be shifting.
I was thinking the same about Trump, unlike Obama he was quick to engage in the region, I thought his plane flying directly from Riyadh to Tel Aviv was hugely symbolic.
His Saudi speech was very clear that the Muslim world need to join the war against Islamic terrorism, and even with Trump these things are written carefully by the diplomats with reference to the host country. Knowing what we know now, it's clear that the other GGC countries know they need to get their own region in order and stop the support that's flowing to the scumbags. They're also quickly waking up to the fact that oil prices aren't coming back up any time soon, and economic diversification is urgent and important to protect their economies and prevent uprisings.
Summary: Labour surge is real in (most of) London, but not in the provinces where they are on course to lose 65-95 seats.
Except we had a full YouGov London poll just a few days ago which showed they were not surging in London anymore than they were in YouGov's UK-wide figures.
@kle4 The trend over the course the GE is that Tory lead is narrowing yes. But the trend since the weekend is that narrowing has stopped and that the lead across most of the polls has essentially stabilised, which is my point.
And why are the ones that stopped more likely to be right than the ones which haven't? I happen to think they're more likely to be right based on other factors, but that doesn't mean I cannot feel concern that alternate movement is picked up by someone else.
I'd be concerned if we saw a 5 point Lab lead, though that'd be much easier to feel comfortable dismissing.
Survation is the only pollster to record a 1pt lead. No other has gone lower than 3% (YouGov, just once).
I'd want to see a second pollster replicating Survation's findings before regarding them as anything other than outliers.
I liked Nate Silver's article on the subject. For those that missed it:
And for those too lazy to read it, he's suggesting you take an average of all the polls, which in this case would give a lead of about 7%.
I don't believe it will be 1%, I do think it an outlier. But an outlier by how much is where the concern comes in - a narrowing of the gap from last time between Tory and Lab is another thing that helps Corbyn stay on.
Corbyn's staying. Why wouldn't he? He's played a blinder.
If the polls are more ICM (or even worse) than Survation and Labour go sub 200, then he won't have played a blinder even if the vote share goes up a few points. If the gap narrows and they only lose a few or they even take the lead and gain some, then of course he is staying.
This apparent Survation will be proven to be the biggest load of bollocks the polling industry has ever seen.
I think ICM will be closer.
I have said 9 all along and
TMICIPM increased majority. Still think Lab piling up votes where they don't need them
I still think this is also going to be true of the Tories: piling up a huge proportion of their extra votes in the longtime Eurosceptic heartlands like Kent, Essex, Lincolnshire, Dorset, etc.
Yes I think that's fair comment. The Tory vote was efficiently distributed in 2015, the Labour vote wasn't, so it isn't obvious why the seat distribution should be assumed to be even more stacked against Labour this time. The shortness of the campaign has limited the Tory ability to use their extra bucks to target key marginals free of campaign spending limits, in contrast to 2015.
That said, I am of the view that reliance on self reporting of the young persons vote will cause YouGov to come a cropper, even though it's possible that ICM and ComRes may have overdone their adjustments the other way. If young people were really going to come out in droves in a way that we have never previously seen, you would expect to have seen some evidence now that electoral registration offices had been struggling to cope with the volume of new registrations and so on prior to the 22nd May deadline, much more so in the past. I expect a Tory majority of around 50.
@kle4 The trend over the course the GE is that Tory lead is narrowing yes. But the trend since the weekend is that narrowing has stopped and that the lead across most of the polls has essentially stabilised, which is my point.
And why are the ones that stopped more likely to be right than the ones which haven't? I happen to think they're more likely to be right based on other factors, but that doesn't mean I cannot feel concern that alternate movement is picked up by someone else.
I'd be concerned if we saw a 5 point Lab lead, though that'd be much easier to feel comfortable dismissing.
Survation is the only pollster to record a 1pt lead. No other has gone lower than 3% (YouGov, just once).
I'd want to see a second pollster replicating Survation's findings before regarding them as anything other than outliers.
I liked Nate Silver's article on the subject. For those that missed it:
And for those too lazy to read it, he's suggesting you take an average of all the polls, which in this case would give a lead of about 7%.
And a lead of 7% is barely enough for a majority - 6.6% lead gave a majority of 12 last time.
Any lead below 6% on UNS Con will lose their majority.
So, on the average of all polls, a Con Maj is on a knife edge.
Feels to me that many people on here are making predictions based on what they think should happen rather than just looking at the actual polling numbers.
Now maybe ICM /ComRes will be right and maybe Con will outperform UNS. If so, big Con Maj.
But maybe the above won't happen.
On average polls and UNS, Con Maj is on a knife-edge.
For the record my prediction is the Tories to win by 10%
And a majority around 80-120
Think a 10% lead might be right, but personally think that would only yield a majority of about 50. Really am not convinced the Tory vote is going to be distributed that efficiently.
It was pretty decent last time, hard to manage it again, though not impossible - I think a marginal analysis of some kind said, essentially, they were increasing in Lab marginals and just about holding on to their own marginals. But a few percent in the right place can be very critical.
Summary: Labour surge is real in (most of) London, but not in the provinces where they are on course to lose 65-95 seats.
Except we had a full YouGov London poll just a few days ago which showed they were not surging in London anymore than they were in YouGov's UK-wide figures.
The whole point of that article is that Labour's own canvassing is not squaring with the polls.
@kle4 The trend over the course the GE is that Tory lead is narrowing yes. But the trend since the weekend is that narrowing has stopped and that the lead across most of the polls has essentially stabilised, which is my point.
And why are the ones that stopped more likely to be right than the ones which haven't? I happen to think they're more likely to be right based on other factors, but that doesn't mean I cannot feel concern that alternate movement is picked up by someone else.
I'd be concerned if we saw a 5 point Lab lead, though that'd be much easier to feel comfortable dismissing.
Survation is the only pollster to record a 1pt lead. No other has gone lower than 3% (YouGov, just once).
I'd want to see a second pollster replicating Survation's findings before regarding them as anything other than outliers.
I liked Nate Silver's article on the subject. For those that missed it:
And for those too lazy to read it, he's suggesting you take an average of all the polls, which in this case would give a lead of about 7%.
I don't believe it will be 1%, I do think it an outlier. But an outlier by how much is where the concern comes in - a narrowing of the gap from last time between Tory and Lab is another thing that helps Corbyn stay on.
Corbyn's staying. Why wouldn't he? He's played a blinder.
If the polls are more ICM (or even worse) than Survation and Labour go sub 200, then he won't have played a blinder even if the vote share goes up a few points. If the gap narrows and they only lose a few or they even take the lead and gain some, then of course he is staying.
I keep coming back to the lack of tory sustained attacks on corbyn. I just can't believe with messina and crosby if they were seeing it being tied it wouldn't be full on buckets of shit and every well know and liked tory all over the media. We have had no major, no Cameron.
@kle4 The trend over the course the GE is that Tory lead is narrowing yes. But the trend since the weekend is that narrowing has stopped and that the lead across most of the polls has essentially stabilised, which is my point.
And why are the ones that stopped more likely to be right than the ones which haven't? I happen to think they're more likely to be right based on other factors, but that doesn't mean I cannot feel concern that alternate movement is picked up by someone else.
I'd be concerned if we saw a 5 point Lab lead, though that'd be much easier to feel comfortable dismissing.
Survation is the only pollster to record a 1pt lead. No other has gone lower than 3% (YouGov, just once).
I'd want to see a second pollster replicating Survation's findings before regarding them as anything other than outliers.
I liked Nate Silver's article on the subject. For those that missed it:
And for those too lazy to read it, he's suggesting you take an average of all the polls, which in this case would give a lead of about 7%.
I don't believe it will be 1%, I do think it an outlier. But an outlier by how much is where the concern comes in - a narrowing of the gap from last time between Tory and Lab is another thing that helps Corbyn stay on.
Corbyn's staying. Why wouldn't he? He's played a blinder.
If the Conservatives double or triple their majority, on crappy boundaries, thats a blinder?
Whatever happened to good old fashioned winning and losing? The problem is the PLP cant get rid of him.
@kle4 The trend over the course the GE is that Tory lead is narrowing yes. But the trend since the weekend is that narrowing has stopped and that the lead across most of the polls has essentially stabilised, which is my point.
And why are the ones that stopped more likely to be right than the ones which haven't? I happen to think they're more likely to be right based on other factors, but that doesn't mean I cannot feel concern that alternate movement is picked up by someone else.
I'd be concerned if we saw a 5 point Lab lead, though that'd be much easier to feel comfortable dismissing.
Survation is the only pollster to record a 1pt lead. No other has gone lower than 3% (YouGov, just once).
I'd want to see a second pollster replicating Survation's findings before regarding them as anything other than outliers.
I liked Nate Silver's article on the subject. For those that missed it:
And for those too lazy to read it, he's suggesting you take an average of all the polls, which in this case would give a lead of about 7%.
And a lead of 7% is barely enough for a majority - 6.6% lead gave a majority of 12 last time.
Any lead below 6% on UNS Con will lose their majority.
So, on the average of all polls, a Con Maj is on a knife edge.
Feels to me that many people on here are making predictions based on what they think should happen rather than just looking at the actual polling numbers.
Now maybe ICM /ComRes will be right and maybe Con will outperform UNS. If so, big Con Maj.
But maybe the above won't happen.
On average polls and UNS, Con Maj is on a knife-edge.
Yes but we have (dire for Labour) postal sampling results from Penistone and... Ealing !
@kle4 The trend over the course the GE is that Tory lead is narrowing yes. But the trend since the weekend is that narrowing has stopped and that the lead across most of the polls has essentially stabilised, which is my point.
And why are the ones that stopped more likely to be right than the ones which haven't? I happen to think they're more likely to be right based on other factors, but that doesn't mean I cannot feel concern that alternate movement is picked up by someone else.
I'd be concerned if we saw a 5 point Lab lead, though that'd be much easier to feel comfortable dismissing.
Survation is the only pollster to record a 1pt lead. No other has gone lower than 3% (YouGov, just once).
I'd want to see a second pollster replicating Survation's findings before regarding them as anything other than outliers.
I liked Nate Silver's article on the subject. For those that missed it:
And for those too lazy to read it, he's suggesting you take an average of all the polls, which in this case would give a lead of about 7%.
I don't believe it will be 1%, I do think it an outlier. But an outlier by how much is where the concern comes in - a narrowing of the gap from last time between Tory and Lab is another thing that helps Corbyn stay on.
Corbyn's staying. Why wouldn't he? He's played a blinder.
If the Conservatives double or triple their majority, on crappy boundaries, thats a blinder?
Whatever happened to good old fashioned winning and losing? The problem is the PLP cant get rid of him.
Oh, they won't get rid o him now.
And 'blinder' is relative of course. Considering where he started from, and the Conservative strategy of concentrating their fire on him, he has indeed played a blinder.
I wonder whether the saudi axis is taking their lead from trump, or taking advantage of US government dysfunction.
The tectonic plates in the ME do seem to be shifting.
I was thinking the same about Trump, unlike Obama he was quick to engage in the region, I thought his plane flying directly from Riyadh to Tel Aviv was hugely symbolic.
His Saudi speech was very clear that the Muslim world need to join the war against Islamic terrorism, and even with Trump these things are written carefully by the diplomats with reference to the host country. Knowing what we know now, it's clear that the other GGC countries know they need to get their own region in order and stop the support that's flowing to the scumbags. They're also quickly waking up to the fact that oil prices aren't coming back up any time soon, and economic diversification is urgent and important to protect their economies and prevent uprisings.
Yes, I very much dislike Trump, but think he is actually more likely to get traction in the Middle East in foreign affairs than anywhere else in the world. There, it's generally much more mano a mano, chest bumping, and locker room deal making.
His problem is in liberal democracies, where he has hugely negative cultural capital, and leaders are acutely aware that doing deals with him (even good ones) are liable to hurt them, while challenging him is a vote-winner. He's got huge problems there in terms of getting anything he wants.
@kle4 The trend over the course the GE is that Tory lead is narrowing yes. But the trend since the weekend is that narrowing has stopped and that the lead across most of the polls has essentially stabilised, which is my point.
And why are the ones that stopped more likely to be right than the ones which haven't? I happen to think they're more likely to be right based on other factors, but that doesn't mean I cannot feel concern that alternate movement is picked up by someone else.
I'd be concerned if we saw a 5 point Lab lead, though that'd be much easier to feel comfortable dismissing.
Survation is the only pollster to record a 1pt lead. No other has gone lower than 3% (YouGov, just once).
I'd want to see a second pollster replicating Survation's findings before regarding them as anything other than outliers.
I liked Nate Silver's article on the subject. For those that missed it:
And for those too lazy to read it, he's suggesting you take an average of all the polls, which in this case would give a lead of about 7%.
I don't believe it will be 1%, I do think it an outlier. But an outlier by how much is where the concern comes in - a narrowing of the gap from last time between Tory and Lab is another thing that helps Corbyn stay on.
Corbyn's staying. Why wouldn't he? He's played a blinder.
If the polls are more ICM (or even worse) than Survation and Labour go sub 200, then he won't have played a blinder even if the vote share goes up a few points. If the gap narrows and they only lose a few or they even take the lead and gain some, then of course he is staying.
I keep coming back to the lack of tory sustained attacks on corbyn.
I agree,at least with cameron,he did keep up with the miliband in salmonds pocket theme.
This campaign,it's all over the place if any attacks
The Daily Mail has published the audio recorded by a person who was spying on Seumas Milne when he was on the train to King's Cross after QT, speaking on the phone to Jeremy Corbyn.
A story like that against Theresa May or one of her crew could do much more damage. And there are two days left.
Comments
It appears Trump's son in law and major advisor Jared Kushner is having a chat today with law enforcement about overseas links.
At the moment I am feeling slightly fuzzy due to not one, but two bangs on the head earlier this evening but I'll say it again regarding Trump, despite others scepticism.
The man is in way over his head with those Russians and its liable to drown him.
His Saudi speech was very clear that the Muslim world need to join the war against Islamic terrorism, and even with Trump these things are written carefully by the diplomats with reference to the host country. Knowing what we know now, it's clear that the other GGC countries know they need to get their own region in order and stop the support that's flowing to the scumbags. They're also quickly waking up to the fact that oil prices aren't coming back up any time soon, and economic diversification is urgent and important to protect their economies and prevent uprisings.
Oh my.
That said, I am of the view that reliance on self reporting of the young persons vote will cause YouGov to come a cropper, even though it's possible that ICM and ComRes may have overdone their adjustments the other way. If young people were really going to come out in droves in a way that we have never previously seen, you would expect to have seen some evidence now that electoral registration offices had been struggling to cope with the volume of new registrations and so on prior to the 22nd May deadline, much more so in the past. I expect a Tory majority of around 50.
Any lead below 6% on UNS Con will lose their majority.
So, on the average of all polls, a Con Maj is on a knife edge.
Feels to me that many people on here are making predictions based on what they think should happen rather than just looking at the actual polling numbers.
Now maybe ICM /ComRes will be right and maybe Con will outperform UNS. If so, big Con Maj.
But maybe the above won't happen.
On average polls and UNS, Con Maj is on a knife-edge.
Whatever happened to good old fashioned winning and losing? The problem is the PLP cant get rid of him.
Con 43.8%
Lab 32.7%
Con 368
Lab 206
SNP 46
LD 7
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/
NEW THREAD
Do you have a PB competition TSE?
Events to come over the next 2 days to change my mind, but right now, with my divining rod in hand, I am on:
CON 370
LAB 210
LIB 7
UKIP 0
Green 1
SNP 41
Plaid 3
Total 629
Farron next leader to leave. 19/10
A large one before bed, I think. Good night.
And 'blinder' is relative of course. Considering where he started from, and the Conservative strategy of concentrating their fire on him, he has indeed played a blinder.
His problem is in liberal democracies, where he has hugely negative cultural capital, and leaders are acutely aware that doing deals with him (even good ones) are liable to hurt them, while challenging him is a vote-winner. He's got huge problems there in terms of getting anything he wants.
This campaign,it's all over the place if any attacks
A story like that against Theresa May or one of her crew could do much more damage. And there are two days left.
She should just hide like TM is doing