The shoot to kill video is going viral, the iPlayer clip got shared in two WhatsApp groups I'm in, very negative reactions. I think Jez needs to say that he fully supports the police decision to kill the terrorists and he would do so again we're he PM, if he isn't forthright then I think we're back in landslide territory.
So is the police union one too though.
chortle
I saw that and thought the RMT will be on next saying a 25% pay rise for Train drivers will stop Al Qaeda
The shoot to kill video is going viral, the iPlayer clip got shared in two WhatsApp groups I'm in, very negative reactions. I think Jez needs to say that he fully supports the police decision to kill the terrorists and he would do so again we're he PM, if he isn't forthright then I think we're back in landslide territory.
So is the police union one too though.
chortle
I saw that and thought the RMT will be on next saying a 25% pay rise for Train drivers will stop Al Qaeda
EDIT: shooting report false. But it is an arrest of another London Bridge suspect, apparently.
East Ham and Barking.. whoever would have thought it
Remember the Islamic Republic of Tower Hamlets too.
I live next to a mosque in Tower Hamlets and came back from the cinema at 11pm last night to see that it was completely packed. Didn't know why until I switched on the TV, saw the news and realised my Muslim neighbours had come together to pray about what had happened.
I don't think so. It's Ramadhan, many muslims normally go to the mosques to pray at night during this month.
That's true - but attendance last night was exceptional. It wasn't anything like that busy last week or any night this week, nor was it that busy during Ramadan last year. As we were walking past, I actually commented on how busy it was to my sister before we had seen the news.
If he *is* on the record opposing reasonable force, please can you cite some evidence? I can't find any and would be interested to know where the allegation comes from.
When you are having to explain Corbyn's shoot to kill policy you have a problem
Right now I don't think any of us should be demanding that anyone says anything. It's sensible to discuss what needs to be done (e.g. have we changed our views on how much snooping the intelligence people can reasonably do? I think maybe yes), but let's wait till the day is out as our various parties have requested before we resume bashing each other.
Very poor attempt to kick this into touch. Corbyn is unelectable because of his back history and current statements. And yet you support such a man.
Pffffffffffff
A person who cut police numbers by 20000 cannot be re-elected after what happened yesterday.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
Looks like it might be raining.
I'm pretty skeptical they would even if the weather is decent. I just think we would be hearing more about it by now if their intention is to vote in massive numbers. Haven't read anything from people who have been campaigning out in these seats to say it's on the cards.
Can't rule it out I guess and it's probably the only way Corbyn can deprive May of her majority.
Met a couple today who were mortified to learn that their grand-daughter was planning on voting for Corbyn. Sat her down, told her how the world worked.
She's now voting for May.
Also met a guy in his garden. Him and he wife were LibDem last time. She will be this time. He is now planning to vote for Theresa May. Not voting Conservative as such. Awkward, because he is a personal friend of the LibDem's candidate. But he thought Theresa May did brilliantly on the Question Time programme. "There's something about her...." Shows what we on here know.
Bugger all....!
I wonder how many returning students complete with their Moamentum t-shirts and posters of Jezza have had a similar talk from the folks?
Yougov today have 63% of 18-24 year olds absolutely certain to vote, in election 2015 43% of 18 to 24s actually turned cast a ballot. 76% of 65+ are absolutely certain to vote and in election 2015 78% of over 65 year olds voted
@HYUFD you keep asserting Corbyn opposes a shoot-to-kill policy, which is true, in the normal meaning of the term in British political discourse which is deliberate killing of terrorist suspects when arrest is safe and possible. This is a commonly understood term since (at least) the accusations against the RUC in the 80s. I can't find any evidence that he has questioned the use of reasonable force in line with current operational protocols.
The BBC interview in which he said he opposed STK was cut so it looked like he was answering a question about the necessary use of lethal force. He wasn't, and the BBC Trust ruled that the report gave an inaccurate portrayal of his views as a result.
If he *is* on the record opposing reasonable force, please can you cite some evidence? I can't find any and would be interested to know where the allegation comes from.
Dear Met Police Officer, the PM Jeremy Corbyn would like you to know that in the event of a knife wielding or bomb carrying Jihadi coming directly at you and the public he considers 'reasonable force' may be acceptable in the circumstances, perhaps a rather stern wrap on the knuckles etc although as PM Corbyn has also made clear in the past he would prefer that the Jihadi was arrested and read his rights rather than being shot in most circumstances if at all possible, so please give due consideration to this before you actually engage said Jihadi, hopefully he will not have killed you and 5 others in the meantime!
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
The shoot to kill video is going viral, the iPlayer clip got shared in two WhatsApp groups I'm in, very negative reactions. I think Jez needs to say that he fully supports the police decision to kill the terrorists and he would do so again we're he PM, if he isn't forthright then I think we're back in landslide territory.
So is the police union one too though.
Not seen that one just yet on my fb feed or on WhatsApp, I'm not a huge twatter user.
Its all over my FB. But then I am friends with lots of Corbynistas.
Yeah I've only got a few and they are not happy about last night at all. Some were in Borough at Old School Yard (at a party I was invited to but couldn't go to because I'm not there) having eaten at Katzenjammers earlier, another friend of a friend was on LB at the time of the attack and another got stranded in Elephant and Castle (probably more dangerous than LB!). They are normally extremely liberal, but today they are on the "deport them all" bandwagon with few signs of it abating, the "No Muslims in Japan" fake news has been shared a few times as well.
If he *is* on the record opposing reasonable force, please can you cite some evidence? I can't find any and would be interested to know where the allegation comes from.
When you are having to explain Corbyn's shoot to kill policy you have a problem
Right now I don't think any of us should be demanding that anyone says anything. It's sensible to discuss what needs to be done (e.g. have we changed our views on how much snooping the intelligence people can reasonably do? I think maybe yes), but let's wait till the day is out as our various parties have requested before we resume bashing each other.
Very poor attempt to kick this into touch. Corbyn is unelectable because of his back history and current statements. And yet you support such a man.
Pffffffffffff
A person who cut police numbers by 20000 cannot be re-elected after what happened yesterday.
What would have those extra 20k cops been doing yesterday, I wonder. Crime has fallen despite the fall in numbers.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
Looks like it might be raining.
I'm pretty skeptical they would even if the weather is decent. I just think we would be hearing more about it by now if their intention is to vote in massive numbers. Haven't read anything from people who have been campaigning out in these seats to say it's on the cards.
Can't rule it out I guess and it's probably the only way Corbyn can deprive May of her majority.
Met a couple today who were mortified to learn that their grand-daughter was planning on voting for Corbyn. Sat her down, told her how the world worked.
She's now voting for May.
Also met a guy in his garden. Him and he wife were LibDem last time. She will be this time. He is now planning to vote for Theresa May. Not voting Conservative as such. Awkward, because he is a personal friend of the LibDem's candidate. But he thought Theresa May did brilliantly on the Question Time programme. "There's something about her...." Shows what we on here know.
Bugger all....!
I wonder how many returning students complete with their Moamentum t-shirts and posters of Jezza have had a similar talk from the folks?
Yougov today have 63% of 18-24 year olds absolutely certain to vote, in election 2015 43% of 18 to 24s actually turned cast a ballot. 76% of 65+ are absolutely certain to vote and in election 2015 78% of over 65 year olds voted
I didn't know that when I wrote the post. It would be interesting to know what they [YouGov] are doing to reach the unengaged and/or if they are able to do it
I think you'll find the answer in these links, tho' I haven't had time to read thru them
Incredible live interview on bbc news with a mother of an injured son(?) outside kings(?) hospital.
"If it wasn't religion, it would be something else"
Indeed.
When people talk about the radicalization of Islam, they're wrong.
It's the Islamicisation of radicalism.
+1. Crisis of masculinity.
wtf is one of those? There is all the evidence in the world that religious and sectarian differences are a primary driver of war and violence. There is a bit in Catch 22 where someone describes a dream about fish, and the other bloke says "that's a sex dream" and the first guy says enthusiastically "and what about those dreams where you are with a girl and you kiss her and tear her clothes off and grab her..." and the other guy says, that's a fish dream. Religious violence is what it is, not something else pretending to be it.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
Looks like it might be raining.
I'm pretty skeptical they would even if the weather is decent. I just think we would be hearing more about it by now if their intention is to vote in massive numbers. Haven't read anything from people who have been campaigning out in these seats to say it's on the cards.
Can't rule it out I guess and it's probably the only way Corbyn can deprive May of her majority.
Met a couple today who were mortified to learn that their grand-daughter was planning on voting for Corbyn. Sat her down, told her how the world worked.
She's now voting for May.
Also met a guy in his garden. Him and he wife were LibDem last time. She will be this time. He is now planning to vote for Theresa May. Not voting Conservative as such. Awkward, because he is a personal friend of the LibDem's candidate. But he thought Theresa May did brilliantly on the Question Time programme. "There's something about her...." Shows what we on here know.
Bugger all....!
I wonder how many returning students complete with their Moamentum t-shirts and posters of Jezza have had a similar talk from the folks?
Yougov today have 63% of 18-24 year olds absolutely certain to vote, in election 2015 43% of 18 to 24s actually turned cast a ballot. 76% of 65+ are absolutely certain to vote and in election 2015 78% of over 65 year olds voted
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
Hello all. Like many I guess I have been following and supporting PB for many years however I thought now is as a good time as ever to join in the discussion and this is my first post. So you know, I'm a novice better, a conservative and a leaver and my constituency is Richmond Park... yes there are some leavers in RP!
I agree with all those who have found this election campaign frustratingly bad but what keeps me awake at night is the thought of Corbyn in power next week and the impact on my children, my community and my country. As the remaining time in this election is likely to de dominated by the terrible events of last night is now not the time for Theresa May to follow up her well pitched speech this morning and go on the offensive and challenge JC to a head to head debate on security and counter terrorism? I'm sure ITV would jump at the chance of screening this tomorrow or Tuesday evening and JC can hardly refuse after his begging to get TM to debate him. Yes there is the police number issue which will come up but if explained within the context of an overall approach to counter terrorism strategy, those that bang on about 20,000 officers will soon be shown for the opportunists and novices that they are. It would help TM show the leadership that is needed to help secure those final few floating voters and ensure JC is exposed for the risk he truly is.
If he *is* on the record opposing reasonable force, please can you cite some evidence? I can't find any and would be interested to know where the allegation comes from.
When you are having to explain Corbyn's shoot to kill policy you have a problem
Right now I don't think any of us should be demanding that anyone says anything. It's sensible to discuss what needs to be done (e.g. have we changed our views on how much snooping the intelligence people can reasonably do? I think maybe yes), but let's wait till the day is out as our various parties have requested before we resume bashing each other.
Very poor attempt to kick this into touch. Corbyn is unelectable because of his back history and current statements. And yet you support such a man.
Pffffffffffff
A person who cut police numbers by 20000 cannot be re-elected after what happened yesterday.
If he *is* on the record opposing reasonable force, please can you cite some evidence? I can't find any and would be interested to know where the allegation comes from.
When you are having to explain Corbyn's shoot to kill policy you have a problem
Right now I don't think any of us should be demanding that anyone says anything. It's sensible to discuss what needs to be done (e.g. have we changed our views on how much snooping the intelligence people can reasonably do? I think maybe yes), but let's wait till the day is out as our various parties have requested before we resume bashing each other.
Very poor attempt to kick this into touch. Corbyn is unelectable because of his back history and current statements. And yet you support such a man.
Pffffffffffff
A person who cut police numbers by 20000 cannot be re-elected after what happened yesterday.
Really. a bold statement. Of course cuts had to be made because of Labours inability to handle the nations finances.. Its always the same with Labour. The magic money tree.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
As we like to quibble about graphs I was taught you put the independent variable on the horizontal axis and the dependant variable on the vertical axis. People turning out should therefore be on the x axis. Vote share is dependant upon people turning out so should be the y axis.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
Looks like it might be raining.
I'm pretty skeptical they would even if the weather is decent. I just think we would be hearing more about it by now if their intention is to vote in massive numbers. Haven't read anything from people who have been campaigning out in these seats to say it's on the cards.
Can't rule it out I guess and it's probably the only way Corbyn can deprive May of her majority.
Met a couple today who were mortified to learn that their grand-daughter was planning on voting for Corbyn. Sat her down, told her how the world worked.
She's now voting for May.
Also met a guy in his garden. Him and he wife were LibDem last time. She will be this time. He is now planning to vote for Theresa May. Not voting Conservative as such. Awkward, because he is a personal friend of the LibDem's candidate. But he thought Theresa May did brilliantly on the Question Time programme. "There's something about her...." Shows what we on here know.
Bugger all....!
I wonder how many returning students complete with their Moamentum t-shirts and posters of Jezza have had a similar talk from the folks?
Yougov today have 63% of 18-24 year olds absolutely certain to vote, in election 2015 43% of 18 to 24s actually turned cast a ballot. 76% of 65+ are absolutely certain to vote and in election 2015 78% of over 65 year olds voted
67% of 18-24 year olds absolutely certain to vote in Yougov's final poll of 2015...
Yes, so in the event was 23% less who turned out than told Yougov they would, while Comres learnt its lesson and adjusted accordingly Yougov may need another one unless youth turnout really does surge on Thursday
Trump attacking Sadiq Khan The London Mayor today seems a bit crass.
Trump....crass...never...grab em by the....
I agree with Trump the other day calling them losers.Big improvement on the usual politicians wording as cowards.
One of the problems with Trump is that he is the wrong answer to the right questions. In this case, 9 times out of 10 (or more) the spontaneously self combusting types are losers - self hating failures.
To be fair, I have been in some bars in the US where is some nutter starts getting stabby stabby they will get shot by one of the patrons without missing their go at the pool table....
But then they also have this habit of shooting some random who wasn't doing anything wrong.
As we like to quibble about graphs I was taught you put the independent variable on the horizontal axis and the dependant variable on the vertical axis. People turning out should therefore be on the x axis. Vote share is dependant upon people turning out so should be the y axis.
Not to mention there are no axis labels, or the jarring "To" in the title.
I would be surprised if that pattern held true at this Westminster election.
Held true at 2015 General Election. Give me 5 mins to get the graph.
Perhaps, but then the enthusiasm was on the other foot.
Are we on the same page here? I'm saying when Turnout is low then the SNP get a higher vote share. I think the same will hold true. In places having a Unionist surge turnout will be high and the SNP vote share will be low.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
The shoot to kill video is going viral, the iPlayer clip got shared in two WhatsApp groups I'm in, very negative reactions. I think Jez needs to say that he fully supports the police decision to kill the terrorists and he would do so again we're he PM, if he isn't forthright then I think we're back in landslide territory.
So is the police union one too though.
Not seen that one just yet on my fb feed or on WhatsApp, I'm not a huge twatter user.
Its all over my FB. But then I am friends with lots of Corbynistas.
Yeah I've only got a few and they are not happy about last night at all. Some were in Borough at Old School Yard (at a party I was invited to but couldn't go to because I'm not there) having eaten at Katzenjammers earlier, another friend of a friend was on LB at the time of the attack and another got stranded in Elephant and Castle (probably more dangerous than LB!). They are normally extremely liberal, but today they are on the "deport them all" bandwagon with few signs of it abating, the "No Muslims in Japan" fake news has been shared a few times as well.
This one seems popular on my FB:
I think that this is on 1.2 million shares, The police guy one on 1.6 million.
I noticed today that whilst the enemies of our country were busy slaying our people in the name of their religion, a group of Labour activists had been out in Totnes, tearing down all the Sarah Wollaston posters and replacing them with Labour ones.
Classy, guys. Real fucking classy.
Now that is dumb putting up their own posters on the sites. Clearly a breach of electoral law and clearly pointable at the Labour campaign. I trust Messrs Plod ares being informed, with copy to the Labour election agent
Yougov today have 63% of 18-24 year olds absolutely certain to vote, in election 2015 43% of 18 to 24s actually turned cast a ballot. 76% of 65+ are absolutely certain to vote and in election 2015 78% of over 65 year olds voted
ISTR that YouGov posted earlier in the week that the comparable certain to vote figure in 2015 a week out was 61% or so, and only 43% turned out. Doesn't bode well for the 63% certain to turn out this time...
I noticed today that whilst the enemies of our country were busy slaying our people in the name of their religion, a group of Labour activists had been out in Totnes, tearing down all the Sarah Wollaston posters and replacing them with Labour ones.
Classy, guys. Real fucking classy.
Now that is dumb putting up their own posters on the sites. Clearly a breach of electoral law and clearly pointable at the Labour campaign. I trust Messrs Plod ares being informed, with copy to the Labour election agent
Yougov today have 63% of 18-24 year olds absolutely certain to vote, in election 2015 43% of 18 to 24s actually turned cast a ballot. 76% of 65+ are absolutely certain to vote and in election 2015 78% of over 65 year olds voted
ISTR that YouGov posted earlier in the week that the comparable certain to vote figure in 2015 a week out was 61% or so, and only 43% turned out. Doesn't bode well for the 63% certain to turn out this time...
If he *is* on the record opposing reasonable force, please can you cite some evidence? I can't find any and would be interested to know where the allegation comes from.
When you are having to explain Corbyn's shoot to kill policy you have a problem
Right now I don't think any of us should be demanding that anyone says anything. It's sensible to discuss what needs to be done (e.g. have we changed our views on how much snooping the intelligence people can reasonably do? I think maybe yes), but let's wait till the day is out as our various parties have requested before we resume bashing each other.
Very poor attempt to kick this into touch. Corbyn is unelectable because of his back history and current statements. And yet you support such a man.
Pffffffffffff
A person who cut police numbers by 20000 cannot be re-elected after what happened yesterday.
Most, if not all, of the police cut were in back office roles (e.g. you don't need a warrant card to take a statement on the front desk). We couldn't afford to retain them in the fiscal climate of 2010. We now might be able to grow the force, and if we do so then it will be possible to employ them far more efficiently.
The albeit spurious notion that Theresa May personally gave the kill order should play very well.
This may sound a little cynical, but today has been Mrs May's most effective day of campaigning.
We are back in 100-200 majority territory!
This really is appalling. Gaining political advantage from such a terrible failure?
Labour paying the price for such a terrible failure of a candidate for PM you mean?
We were told this after the Manchester murders, the IRA attack video, and on a number of occasions in other countries, such as France or Germany.
There was no polling evidence that voters altered their choice as a result, so I don't think there will be this time either.
Wait until Thursday. If I might suggest - "Tipping point"?
By the way, if Labour thought Theresa May's Dementia Tax was toxic - ain't nothing compared to the reaction to Jeremy Corbyn's Garden Tax.
Has anyone noticed the Garden Tax? Tories need to hammer on this if they want a good win.
Telegraph led on it today.... Perfect timing.
Doubt many Telegraph readers aren't already in the May camp for this GE.
Getting on front page of Mail tomorrow would be the ideal I guess, but terrible events have intervened.
I'm expecting the next few Mail and Sun headlines to be brutal for Corbyn, in a way that cuts through to lead the news.
The one big unknown is what the Standard will do tomorrow.
Sunday Times and Sunday Telegraph were leading on garden tax until last night's events changed front pages.
I think best Con strategy would be to go on attack re garden tax - and looks as if that was what the plan was.
I think they'll try and get garden tax / broader tax bombshell on front pages on Tue / Wed / Thur.
Ain't going to happen. It will now be tales of those that lost their lives, the heroes who stopped more being killed and the background of the killers.
To summarise: the SNP have cut spending on education & training in Scotland over the last 9 years by on average 8% more than it's been cut in the rest of the UK.
Unsurprisingly, over the same period teacher numbers in Scotland have declined (by 8%) and pupil:teacher ratios (a proxy for class sizes) have increased (by 6%). The reverse has happened in England, with teacher numbers up (by 4%) and pupil:teacher ratios improving.
The Barnett formula ensures Scotland has the option to follow the rest of the UK when investing in schooling; the hard evidence shows that the SNP has simply chosen not to.
To summarise: the SNP have cut spending on education & training in Scotland over the last 9 years by on average 8% more than it's been cut in the rest of the UK.
Unsurprisingly, over the same period teacher numbers in Scotland have declined (by 8%) and pupil:teacher ratios (a proxy for class sizes) have increased (by 6%). The reverse has happened in England, with teacher numbers up (by 4%) and pupil:teacher ratios improving.
The Barnett formula ensures Scotland has the option to follow the rest of the UK when investing in schooling; the hard evidence shows that the SNP has simply chosen not to.
If he *is* on the record opposing reasonable force, please can you cite some evidence? I can't find any and would be interested to know where the allegation comes from.
When you are having to explain Corbyn's shoot to kill policy you have a problem
Right now I don't think any of us should be demanding that anyone says anything. It's sensible to discuss what needs to be done (e.g. have we changed our views on how much snooping the intelligence people can reasonably do? I think maybe yes), but let's wait till the day is out as our various parties have requested before we resume bashing each other.
Very poor attempt to kick this into touch. Corbyn is unelectable because of his back history and current statements. And yet you support such a man.
Pffffffffffff
A person who cut police numbers by 20000 cannot be re-elected after what happened yesterday.
Most, if not all, of the police cut were in back office roles (e.g. you don't need a warrant card to take a statement on the front desk). We couldn't afford to retain them in the fiscal climate of 2010. We now might be able to grow the force, and if we do so then it will be possible to employ them far more efficiently.
The quote at the time was that most of the reduction was in the "Eternal Flame"* posts.
Hello all. Like many I guess I have been following and supporting PB for many years however I thought now is as a good time as ever to join in the discussion and this is my first post. So you know, I'm a novice better, a conservative and a leaver and my constituency is Richmond Park... yes there are some leavers in RP!
I agree with all those who have found this election campaign frustratingly bad but what keeps me awake at night is the thought of Corbyn in power next week and the impact on my children, my community and my country. As the remaining time in this election is likely to de dominated by the terrible events of last night is now not the time for Theresa May to follow up her well pitched speech this morning and go on the offensive and challenge JC to a head to head debate on security and counter terrorism? I'm sure ITV would jump at the chance of screening this tomorrow or Tuesday evening and JC can hardly refuse after his begging to get TM to debate him. Yes there is the police number issue which will come up but if explained within the context of an overall approach to counter terrorism strategy, those that bang on about 20,000 officers will soon be shown for the opportunists and novices that they are. It would help TM show the leadership that is needed to help secure those final few floating voters and ensure JC is exposed for the risk he truly is.
The shoot to kill video is going viral, the iPlayer clip got shared in two WhatsApp groups I'm in, very negative reactions. I think Jez needs to say that he fully supports the police decision to kill the terrorists and he would do so again we're he PM, if he isn't forthright then I think we're back in landslide territory.
So is the police union one too though.
Not seen that one just yet on my fb feed or on WhatsApp, I'm not a huge twatter user.
Its all over my FB. But then I am friends with lots of Corbynistas.
Yougov today have 63% of 18-24 year olds absolutely certain to vote, in election 2015 43% of 18 to 24s actually turned cast a ballot. 76% of 65+ are absolutely certain to vote and in election 2015 78% of over 65 year olds voted
ISTR that YouGov posted earlier in the week that the comparable certain to vote figure in 2015 a week out was 61% or so, and only 43% turned out. Doesn't bode well for the 63% certain to turn out this time...
Yes, the Corbyn 'surge' is very reliant on young voters in the inner cities it seems
Yougov today have 63% of 18-24 year olds absolutely certain to vote, in election 2015 43% of 18 to 24s actually turned cast a ballot. 76% of 65+ are absolutely certain to vote and in election 2015 78% of over 65 year olds voted
ISTR that YouGov posted earlier in the week that the comparable certain to vote figure in 2015 a week out was 61% or so, and only 43% turned out. Doesn't bode well for the 63% certain to turn out this time...
Yes, the Corbyn 'surge' is very reliant on young voters in the inner cities it seems
So they likely won't turn out. And even if they do it'll be in all the wrong places.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If he *is* on the record opposing reasonable force, please can you cite some evidence? I can't find any and would be interested to know where the allegation comes from.
When you are having to explain Corbyn's shoot to kill policy you have a problem
Right now I don't think any of us should be demanding that anyone says anything. It's sensible to discuss what needs to be done (e.g. have we changed our views on how much snooping the intelligence people can reasonably do? I think maybe yes), but let's wait till the day is out as our various parties have requested before we resume bashing each other.
Very poor attempt to kick this into touch. Corbyn is unelectable because of his back history and current statements. And yet you support such a man.
Pffffffffffff
A person who cut police numbers by 20000 cannot be re-elected after what happened yesterday.
If he *is* on the record opposing reasonable force, please can you cite some evidence? I can't find any and would be interested to know where the allegation comes from.
When you are having to explain Corbyn's shoot to kill policy you have a problem
Right now I don't think any of us should be demanding that anyone says anything. It's sensible to discuss what needs to be done (e.g. have we changed our views on how much snooping the intelligence people can reasonably do? I think maybe yes), but let's wait till the day is out as our various parties have requested before we resume bashing each other.
Very poor attempt to kick this into touch. Corbyn is unelectable because of his back history and current statements. And yet you support such a man.
Pffffffffffff
A person who cut police numbers by 20000 cannot be re-elected after what happened yesterday.
Really. a bold statement. Of course cuts had to be made because of Labours inability to handle the nations finances.. Its always the same with Labour. The magic money tree.
Or (in response to Surbiton) - we are supposed to entrust our security to Labours top team who between them
Yougov today have 63% of 18-24 year olds absolutely certain to vote, in election 2015 43% of 18 to 24s actually turned cast a ballot. 76% of 65+ are absolutely certain to vote and in election 2015 78% of over 65 year olds voted
ISTR that YouGov posted earlier in the week that the comparable certain to vote figure in 2015 a week out was 61% or so, and only 43% turned out. Doesn't bode well for the 63% certain to turn out this time...
Yes, the Corbyn 'surge' is very reliant on young voters in the inner cities it seems
So they likely won't turn out. And even if they do it'll be in all the wrong places.
or at the wrong time
I left the pub at midnight and there was nowehere to vote !
Hello all. Like many I guess I have been following and supporting PB for many years however I thought now is as a good time as ever to join in the discussion and this is my first post. So you know, I'm a novice better, a conservative and a leaver and my constituency is Richmond Park... yes there are some leavers in RP!
I agree with all those who have found this election campaign frustratingly bad but what keeps me awake at night is the thought of Corbyn in power next week and the impact on my children, my community and my country. As the remaining time in this election is likely to de dominated by the terrible events of last night is now not the time for Theresa May to follow up her well pitched speech this morning and go on the offensive and challenge JC to a head to head debate on security and counter terrorism? I'm sure ITV would jump at the chance of screening this tomorrow or Tuesday evening and JC can hardly refuse after his begging to get TM to debate him. Yes there is the police number issue which will come up but if explained within the context of an overall approach to counter terrorism strategy, those that bang on about 20,000 officers will soon be shown for the opportunists and novices that they are. It would help TM show the leadership that is needed to help secure those final few floating voters and ensure JC is exposed for the risk he truly is.
The shoot to kill video is going viral, the iPlayer clip got shared in two WhatsApp groups I'm in, very negative reactions. I think Jez needs to say that he fully supports the police decision to kill the terrorists and he would do so again we're he PM, if he isn't forthright then I think we're back in landslide territory.
So is the police union one too though.
Not seen that one just yet on my fb feed or on WhatsApp, I'm not a huge twatter user.
Its all over my FB. But then I am friends with lots of Corbynistas.
The shoot to kill video is going viral, the iPlayer clip got shared in two WhatsApp groups I'm in, very negative reactions. I think Jez needs to say that he fully supports the police decision to kill the terrorists and he would do so again we're he PM, if he isn't forthright then I think we're back in landslide territory.
So is the police union one too though.
Not seen that one just yet on my fb feed or on WhatsApp, I'm not a huge twatter user.
Its all over my FB. But then I am friends with lots of Corbynistas.
The shoot to kill video is going viral, the iPlayer clip got shared in two WhatsApp groups I'm in, very negative reactions. I think Jez needs to say that he fully supports the police decision to kill the terrorists and he would do so again we're he PM, if he isn't forthright then I think we're back in landslide territory.
So is the police union one too though.
Not seen that one just yet on my fb feed or on WhatsApp, I'm not a huge twatter user.
Its all over my FB. But then I am friends with lots of Corbynistas.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Given Labour's approach to defence related exports and the proposed banning of sales, it may be the case that they will not do as well as they have done in the past in Bristol as I believe some defence manufacturers are based in that city. Labour are talking the economics of the "mad house" on this and it would only lead to hardworking families being penalised for Labour party dogma. Labour seem to champion the welfare of non UK families before the people they seek to represent in parliament.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Given Labour's approach to defence related exports and the proposed banning of sales, it may be the case that they will not do as well as they have done in the past in Bristol as I believe some defence manufacturers are based in that city. Labour are talking the economics of the "mad house" on this and it would only lead to hardworking families being penalised for Labour party dogma. Labour seem to champion the welfare of non UK families before the people they seek to represent in parliament.
They walked the mayoral election, they will walk places like Bristol West.
We know large numbers of people aren't registered to vote - I don't think precise numbers are known but from memory one report suggested up to 8 million. And most of these people will be at the younger end of the spectrum.
This is why the electorate numbers which have come out in the last 48 hours are so vital - if there is to be a big increase in young turnout then it would have to come on the back of a big increase in registrations - which hasn't happened.
Again, we don't know precise numbers but if only say 75% of young people are registered then to get 60% turnout (as % of young population) implies 60/75 = 80% of those registered which is totally inconceivable.
And it's no good getting pollsters to ask people whether they are registered - many won't know or assume they are or just say "Yes" because it sounds like the right / worthy answer.
The killer fact to remember was the poll asking people whether they were going to church over Christmas - 50% said Yes when the actual attendance figure was just 8%.
It is blindingly obvious that it is pointless asking people whether they will do something when one answer looks good / worthy - people will always say what they think the right answer is.
Much as I like the idea of exposing such dodgy practices it is rather ironic that it is the Guardian who is doing so given their own Cayman Islands shell company racket to make sure they minimise their tax liabilities.
Much as I like the idea of exposing such dodgy practices it is rather ironic that it is the Guardian who is doing so given their own Cayman Islands shell company racket to make sure they minimise their tax liabilities.
How do you think they were able to research that story so easily?
A post from last thread that I'm going to expand on.
The lads behind recent attacks and many foiled ones tend to stay close to home or a have substantive proportion of their circle close to the planned attack point.
Given the long held Islamic extremist idea of attacking the UK across multiple cities (and lets not forget it isn't just IS, Al Qaeda & LIFG exist and still have associated elements here) , it shouldn't take a genius to work out where the possibilities of another location are if we are in an uptempo phase.
Let no one be in any doubt that the proximity of the elections has figured into the thinking of those responsible. Whether impacting or not, they are not without some thought on when as well as where and how.
Finally I posted last thread that there is a background link between at least one of the London attackers and the Manchester circle then pulled it as there was a possibility of name confusion. Something to watch for, however, is whether the attackers are of Arab origin, not East Africa, converts or what might broadly be known as the Indian subcontinent.
It will be of very notable significance if they are Arab origins.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
Yougov today have 63% of 18-24 year olds absolutely certain to vote, in election 2015 43% of 18 to 24s actually turned cast a ballot. 76% of 65+ are absolutely certain to vote and in election 2015 78% of over 65 year olds voted
ISTR that YouGov posted earlier in the week that the comparable certain to vote figure in 2015 a week out was 61% or so, and only 43% turned out. Doesn't bode well for the 63% certain to turn out this time...
Yes, the Corbyn 'surge' is very reliant on young voters in the inner cities it seems
So they likely won't turn out. And even if they do it'll be in all the wrong places.
But I feel that they will turn out in greater numbers than in 2015, when Mili v Cammo was hardly a big draw for the young. Which is why Comres and ICM may well be under-estimating Labour by using a turnout model replicating 2015. On the other hand I don't believe it possible for younger voters to turn out at the levels implied by Survation.
Even though I'm a Love Your Neighbour kind of guy, I do believe in "national character" and preservation of same. Most immigrants do too - people come here because it's a nice place with certain qualities and values and they don't want it to change. Witness the paradox of immigrant families becoming anti-immigration. So although govts should be respectful of people's rights of free speech, of religious belief, the freedom to dress how one likes, etc. this shouldn't be at any price. That's what British Values education is supposed to be about. One thing which needs addressing is birth rates. When I was little it was the era of family planning - what happened to that? I think if we had a family-planning culture fewer immigrant families would think it normal/acceptable to have 6 kids. Did the govt finally change the rules so that families only get benefits for the first couple of kids? That's a start. No more immigration-by-arranged-marriage would be good too.
If families have fewer children that likely leads to more immigration in future. Therefore, assuming the immigration system does not start discriminating against those from cultures unlikely to integrate, discouraging large families implies a higher proportion of poorly integrated children in future.
I'd rather have more immigrants who share our values (whatever their nationality) than larger families of people who still think they're living in some backward village somewhere, think it's okay to marry cousins, or teenagers, or teenage cousins, and don't want their family members mixing with people from other backgrounds. Re-educating people is an exhausting and expensive process and we've allowed some people to be almost unreachable.
Well you never been to inner city bradford then,that's what is happening here.My next door neighbour just had his second arranged marriage with a women from pakistan and down my road I could think of 2 or three more arranged marriages from pakistan.
Just up the road is one of the biggest mosque been built,it wouldn't look out of place in a middle eastern country,bradford must be heading for more minarets in our sky line outside any other muslim city.
Don't get me on our communities living apart,it's happening.
To summarise: the SNP have cut spending on education & training in Scotland over the last 9 years by on average 8% more than it's been cut in the rest of the UK.
Unsurprisingly, over the same period teacher numbers in Scotland have declined (by 8%) and pupil:teacher ratios (a proxy for class sizes) have increased (by 6%). The reverse has happened in England, with teacher numbers up (by 4%) and pupil:teacher ratios improving.
The Barnett formula ensures Scotland has the option to follow the rest of the UK when investing in schooling; the hard evidence shows that the SNP has simply chosen not to.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
The albeit spurious notion that Theresa May personally gave the kill order should play very well.
This may sound a little cynical, but today has been Mrs May's most effective day of campaigning.
We are back in 100-200 majority territory!
This really is appalling. Gaining political advantage from such a terrible failure?
Labour paying the price for such a terrible failure of a candidate for PM you mean?
We were told this after the Manchester murders, the IRA attack video, and on a number of occasions in other countries, such as France or Germany.
There was no polling evidence that voters altered their choice as a result, so I don't think there will be this time either.
Wait until Thursday. If I might suggest - "Tipping point"?
By the way, if Labour thought Theresa May's Dementia Tax was toxic - ain't nothing compared to the reaction to Jeremy Corbyn's Garden Tax.
Has anyone noticed the Garden Tax? Tories need to hammer on this if they want a good win.
Telegraph led on it today.... Perfect timing.
Doubt many Telegraph readers aren't already in the May camp for this GE.
Getting on front page of Mail tomorrow would be the ideal I guess, but terrible events have intervened.
I'm expecting the next few Mail and Sun headlines to be brutal for Corbyn, in a way that cuts through to lead the news.
The one big unknown is what the Standard will do tomorrow.
Sunday Times and Sunday Telegraph were leading on garden tax until last night's events changed front pages.
I think best Con strategy would be to go on attack re garden tax - and looks as if that was what the plan was.
I think they'll try and get garden tax / broader tax bombshell on front pages on Tue / Wed / Thur.
Most of the country don't get second editions of the Sundays. It was Garden Tax on the copies here in the south west.
Well that's good news for Con.
I guess the main areas which would get the later editions would be London / other big cities which are generally Lab areas. So most marginals would have got the earlier editions.
Yougov today have 63% of 18-24 year olds absolutely certain to vote, in election 2015 43% of 18 to 24s actually turned cast a ballot. 76% of 65+ are absolutely certain to vote and in election 2015 78% of over 65 year olds voted
ISTR that YouGov posted earlier in the week that the comparable certain to vote figure in 2015 a week out was 61% or so, and only 43% turned out. Doesn't bode well for the 63% certain to turn out this time...
Yes, the Corbyn 'surge' is very reliant on young voters in the inner cities it seems
So they likely won't turn out. And even if they do it'll be in all the wrong places.
But I feel that they will turn out in greater numbers than in 2015, when Mili v Cammo was hardly a big draw for the young. Which is why Comres and ICM may well be under-estimating Labour by using a turnout model replicating 2015. On the other hand I don't believe it possible for younger voters to turn out at the levels implied by Survation.
That Survation poll is highly suspect for other reasons, too.
If he *is* on the record opposing reasonable force, please can you cite some evidence? I can't find any and would be interested to know where the allegation comes from.
When you are having to explain Corbyn's shoot to kill policy you have a problem
Right now I don't think any of us should be demanding that anyone says anything. It's sensible to discuss what needs to be done (e.g. have we changed our views on how much snooping the intelligence people can reasonably do? I think maybe yes), but let's wait till the day is out as our various parties have requested before we resume bashing each other.
Very poor attempt to kick this into touch. Corbyn is unelectable because of his back history and current statements. And yet you support such a man.
Pffffffffffff
A person who cut police numbers by 20000 cannot be re-elected after what happened yesterday.
What would have those extra 20k cops been doing yesterday, I wonder. Crime has fallen despite the fall in numbers.
There could have been an extra 2 million police and it would have made no difference - the police response by all accounts was exemplary.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
I think we are going to see some really odd results in some seats. Bristol is very "Corbyn".
If he *is* on the record opposing reasonable force, please can you cite some evidence? I can't find any and would be interested to know where the allegation comes from.
When you are having to explain Corbyn's shoot to kill policy you have a problem
Right now I don't think any of us should be demanding that anyone says anything. It's sensible to discuss what needs to be done (e.g. have we changed our views on how much snooping the intelligence people can reasonably do? I think maybe yes), but let's wait till the day is out as our various parties have requested before we resume bashing each other.
Very poor attempt to kick this into touch. Corbyn is unelectable because of his back history and current statements. And yet you support such a man.
Pffffffffffff
A person who cut police numbers by 20000 cannot be re-elected after what happened yesterday.
What would have those extra 20k cops been doing yesterday, I wonder. Crime has fallen despite the fall in numbers.
There could have been an extra 2 million police and it would have made no difference - the police response by all accounts was exemplary.
Well Labour wins on Thursday, Diane will see there is...or 20, or 5 or 50 or something.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Given Labour's approach to defence related exports and the proposed banning of sales, it may be the case that they will not do as well as they have done in the past in Bristol as I believe some defence manufacturers are based in that city. Labour are talking the economics of the "mad house" on this and it would only lead to hardworking families being penalised for Labour party dogma. Labour seem to champion the welfare of non UK families before the people they seek to represent in parliament.
They walked the mayoral election, they will walk places like Bristol West.
Bristol East might be interesting, no ukip candidate and in 2015 they got 15% of the vote. The tories might pick up Bristol East where as I would agree Bristol West looks like a Labour hold.
Hello all. Like many I guess I have been following and supporting PB for many years however I thought now is as a good time as ever to join in the discussion and this is my first post. So you know, I'm a novice better, a conservative and a leaver and my constituency is Richmond Park... yes there are some leavers in RP!
I agree with all those who have found this election campaign frustratingly bad but what keeps me awake at night is the thought of Corbyn in power next week and the impact on my children, my community and my country. As the remaining time in this election is likely to de dominated by the terrible events of last night is now not the time for Theresa May to follow up her well pitched speech this morning and go on the offensive and challenge JC to a head to head debate on security and counter terrorism? I'm sure ITV would jump at the chance of screening this tomorrow or Tuesday evening and JC can hardly refuse after his begging to get TM to debate him. Yes there is the police number issue which will come up but if explained within the context of an overall approach to counter terrorism strategy, those that bang on about 20,000 officers will soon be shown for the opportunists and novices that they are. It would help TM show the leadership that is needed to help secure those final few floating voters and ensure JC is exposed for the risk he truly is.
Welcome aboard!
What is your take on how Zac will do?
My gut says he will retake the seat but not by a large margin. There is a noticeable reduction in LD campaign activity, compared to the byelection and I believe there are tory's returning to the fold who lent their vote to Sarah Olney.
Hello all. Like many I guess I have been following and supporting PB for many years however I thought now is as a good time as ever to join in the discussion and this is my first post. So you know, I'm a novice better, a conservative and a leaver and my constituency is Richmond Park... yes there are some leavers in RP!
I agree with all those who have found this election campaign frustratingly bad but what keeps me awake at night is the thought of Corbyn in power next week and the impact on my children, my community and my country. As the remaining time in this election is likely to de dominated by the terrible events of last night is now not the time for Theresa May to follow up her well pitched speech this morning and go on the offensive and challenge JC to a head to head debate on security and counter terrorism? I'm sure ITV would jump at the chance of screening this tomorrow or Tuesday evening and JC can hardly refuse after his begging to get TM to debate him. Yes there is the police number issue which will come up but if explained within the context of an overall approach to counter terrorism strategy, those that bang on about 20,000 officers will soon be shown for the opportunists and novices that they are. It would help TM show the leadership that is needed to help secure those final few floating voters and ensure JC is exposed for the risk he truly is.
I would have thought that you would know whether you had been following PB for years, or not, and wouldn't need to guess?
Having turned down every opportunity to debate her opponents, she would look like an idiot suddenly popping up and proposing a debate now. She has done more than her share of flip-flopping during the campaign as it is. Besides, surely all the evidence suggests that she wouldn't be very good at it?
It will be interesting to see how the new anti-terror plan plays with the electorate.
Seen simply, TM looks decisive by talking up the four new actions.
However, it implies her own government has not been doing enough. Also as it is not in the conservative manifesto it looks like it just been thought up. The danger for TM is that she has already started to project an image of a flip-flopper on several issues.
It will be interesting to see how the new anti-terror plan plays with the electorate.
Seen simply, TM looks decisive by talking up the four new actions.
However, it implies what her own government has been doing enough. Also as it is not in the manifesto it looks like it just been thought up. The danger for TM is that she has already started to project an image of a flip-flopper on several issues.
It will be interesting to see how the new anti-terror plan plays with the electorate.
Seen simply, TM looks decisive by talking up the four new actions.
However, it implies what her own government has been doing enough. Also as it is not in the manifesto it looks like it just been thought up. The danger for TM is that she has already started to project an image of a flip-flopper on several issues.
It's legitimate to review things after events.
Where as Jezza has had the same exactly the same policies for the past 40 years ;-)
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
It is all down to regional swing, Comres is showing a big swing to the Tories in the North West, Wales, the North East and the East Midlands and Scotland relative to 2015. However there is a slight swing to Labour in the South East and South West, in both regions the Tory voteshare is either the same as 2015 or fractionally up it is just the Labour vote is up more
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
Comments
I saw that and thought the RMT will be on next saying a 25% pay rise for Train drivers will stop Al Qaeda
ToriesLib Dems...Before 2017
* https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/12/07/analysis-what-went-wrong-our-ge15-polling-and-what/
* https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/x4ae830iac/YouGov – GE2015 Post Mortem.pdf
* https://www.research-live.com/article/video/interview-with-stephan-shakespeare/id/5000652
2017 GE
* https://www.research-live.com/article/opinion/are-pollsters-ready-for-the-election/id/5021472
* https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/01/pollsters-experimental-election/
2017 GE Model
* https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/yougovs-election-model/
* https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/yougov-election-model-q/
* https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works/
Of course they're being cautious - at that age, they might not be alive on Thursday.
And I'm among them.
https://twitter.com/LabourBristol/status/871043370755510273
I agree with all those who have found this election campaign frustratingly bad but what keeps me awake at night is the thought of Corbyn in power next week and the impact on my children, my community and my country. As the remaining time in this election is likely to de dominated by the terrible events of last night is now not the time for Theresa May to follow up her well pitched speech this morning and go on the offensive and challenge JC to a head to head debate on security and counter terrorism? I'm sure ITV would jump at the chance of screening this tomorrow or Tuesday evening and JC can hardly refuse after his begging to get TM to debate him. Yes there is the police number issue which will come up but if explained within the context of an overall approach to counter terrorism strategy, those that bang on about 20,000 officers will soon be shown for the opportunists and novices that they are. It would help TM show the leadership that is needed to help secure those final few floating voters and ensure JC is exposed for the risk he truly is.
https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/871398917421895682
But then they also have this habit of shooting some random who wasn't doing anything wrong.
https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/871401661020983296
I think that this is on 1.2 million shares, The police guy one on 1.6 million.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1851112301807375&id=1617582701827004
I think best Con strategy would be to go on attack re garden tax - and looks as if that was what the plan was.
I think they'll try and get garden tax / broader tax bombshell on front pages on Tue / Wed / Thur.
Unsurprisingly, over the same period teacher numbers in Scotland have declined (by 8%) and pupil:teacher ratios (a proxy for class sizes) have increased (by 6%). The reverse has happened in England, with teacher numbers up (by 4%) and pupil:teacher ratios improving.
The Barnett formula ensures Scotland has the option to follow the rest of the UK when investing in schooling; the hard evidence shows that the SNP has simply chosen not to.
http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.id/2017/06/scottish-education-snp-neglect-or-tory.html
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/jul/21/global-elite-tax-offshore-economy
*Called that because they never, ever go out.
Wanted us to lose and rejoiced in it
Wanted to disarm police
Wanted to shut down MI5
your party is a dangerous joke Surbiton
I left the pub at midnight and there was nowehere to vote !
What is your take on how Zac will do?
Literally....
This is why the electorate numbers which have come out in the last 48 hours are so vital - if there is to be a big increase in young turnout then it would have to come on the back of a big increase in registrations - which hasn't happened.
Again, we don't know precise numbers but if only say 75% of young people are registered then to get 60% turnout (as % of young population) implies 60/75 = 80% of those registered which is totally inconceivable.
And it's no good getting pollsters to ask people whether they are registered - many won't know or assume they are or just say "Yes" because it sounds like the right / worthy answer.
The killer fact to remember was the poll asking people whether they were going to church over Christmas - 50% said Yes when the actual attendance figure was just 8%.
It is blindingly obvious that it is pointless asking people whether they will do something when one answer looks good / worthy - people will always say what they think the right answer is.
The lads behind recent attacks and many foiled ones tend to stay close to home or a have substantive proportion of their circle close to the planned attack point.
Given the long held Islamic extremist idea of attacking the UK across multiple cities (and lets not forget it isn't just IS, Al Qaeda & LIFG exist and still have associated elements here) , it shouldn't take a genius to work out where the possibilities of another location are if we are in an uptempo phase.
Let no one be in any doubt that the proximity of the elections has figured into the thinking of those responsible. Whether impacting or not, they are not without some thought on when as well as where and how.
Finally I posted last thread that there is a background link between at least one of the London attackers and the Manchester circle then pulled it as there was a possibility of name confusion. Something to watch for, however, is whether the attackers are of Arab origin, not East Africa, converts or what might broadly be known as the Indian subcontinent.
It will be of very notable significance if they are Arab origins.
Just up the road is one of the biggest mosque been built,it wouldn't look out of place in a middle eastern country,bradford must be heading for more minarets in our sky line outside any other muslim city.
Don't get me on our communities living apart,it's happening.
I guess the main areas which would get the later editions would be London / other big cities which are generally Lab areas. So most marginals would have got the earlier editions.
In case not already posted. Before last night's dramas.
Having turned down every opportunity to debate her opponents, she would look like an idiot suddenly popping up and proposing a debate now. She has done more than her share of flip-flopping during the campaign as it is. Besides, surely all the evidence suggests that she wouldn't be very good at it?
Seen simply, TM looks decisive by talking up the four new actions.
However, it implies her own government has not been doing enough. Also as it is not in the conservative manifesto it looks like it just been thought up. The danger for TM is that she has already started to project an image of a flip-flopper on several issues.
Hanretty: Con 43.6%, Lab 33.3%
Baxter: Con 44.9%, Lab 35.2%
Fisher: Con 43.5%, Lab 33.3%
BritainElects: Con 44.1%, Lab 35.8%
YouGov: Con 42%, Lab 38%
Average: Con 43.6%, Lab 35.1%