I reckon there are at most about five seats in the whole country which may end up being affected by the referendum result. (And in at least one of those, Heathrow expansion is likely to be a bigger issue than Brexit.)
Olney not been campaigning as vociferously against Heathrow as Zac did ?
In my opinion, going hard on the garden tax would be a huge error as the come back would be, 'people can't get a house under the Tories and not a hope of a house with a garden'. it would play very badly with the 'just about managing'.
There is a video doing the rounds which has been produced by some policemen, it is strongly attacking the cut in police numbers. This could have a huge impact depending on who sees it.
The bottom line is that the Tories are obsessed with negative campaigning and think that banging on about Corbyn will guarantee them victory (because that is of course why they called the election in the first place), whereas the average man or woman in the street wants to know why, since the Tories have troubled us with this unnecessary election, the Conservative programme for government over the next five years should actually merit our support?
Very true , the Conservatives have nothing to campaign positively on , the Strong and Stable message having been replaced by Weak and Wobbly .
And I suppose people banging on about the Tories stealing your house is positive campaigning?
But you are missing the point.
The government had three years more to run, but called a surprise election.
People think, OK, so tell us why you need our support again so soon?
The government says the election is about Brexit but, after a month of campaigning, we are no wiser about their Brexit plan than before. Nor will they tell us very much about their plans for the next five years, and most of the top dogs in the Tory party spend the campaign trying to keep a low profile.
Who can blame many voters for thinking, "wtf?"
According to the polls people aren't thinking wtf. A majority agree May was right to call the election.
Funnily enough the people moaning most about her calling an election seem to be the same people who kept claiming she didn't have a mandate to do anything she was trying to do.
So now she will have a mandate and they can shut the f**k up.
One of the young ones said he voted and his parents were like "you voted? Who did you vote for? I voted for labour (smiled), dad - what's wrong with you? Mum - he will learn
Postal vote too
He pays for things on his mobile phone. I never understand how his phone pays for stuff
I reckon there are at most about five seats in the whole country which may end up being affected by the referendum result. (And in at least one of those, Heathrow expansion is likely to be a bigger issue than Brexit.)
Hoey's covering that base, perhaps because she's worried about people using Heathrow for health tourism.
One of the young ones said he voted and his parents were like "you voted? Who did you vote for? I voted for labour (smiled), dad - what's wrong with you? Mum - he will learn
Postal vote too
He pays for things on his mobile phone. I never understand how his phone pays for stuff
Am I right in thinking that apart from a short stint in minor office by Tom Watson, none of Corbyn's likely ministers have had any experience at all of government?
Am I right in thinking that apart from a short stint in minor office by Tom Watson, none of Corbyn's likely ministers have had any experience at all of government?
All the sane ones resigned from the shadow cabinet a while ago.
A post from last thread that I'm going to expand on.
The lads behind recent attacks and many foiled ones tend to stay close to home or a have substantive proportion of their circle close to the planned attack point.
Given the long held Islamic extremist idea of attacking the UK across multiple cities (and lets not forget it isn't just IS, Al Qaeda & LIFG exist and still have associated elements here) , it shouldn't take a genius to work out where the possibilities of another location are if we are in an uptempo phase.
Let no one be in any doubt that the proximity of the elections has figured into the thinking of those responsible. Whether impacting or not, they are not without some thought on when as well as where and how.
Finally I posted last thread that there is a background link between at least one of the London attackers and the Manchester circle then pulled it as there was a possibility of name confusion. Something to watch for, however, is whether the attackers are of Arab origin, not East Africa, converts or what might broadly be known as the Indian subcontinent.
It will be of very notable significance if they are Arab origins.
So what you are saying is stay away from Brum. Right got it ...although I didn't have any plans to go there......
I'm back! Tory engaged supporters return en masse from half term hols to bolster the polling for the blues.... whilst away with my bruv's family (Kingston voter) he was called over 10 times on his mobile by a number showing up as the yellow peril. Keen - he's no idea how they got it!!!
So time to build towards a big Thursday night - first up, did I see OGH tweet there's a Survation GMB poll out tonight....
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
What are you drooling on about? HYUFD quoted a poll that had the Tories 12% ahead nationally but he thought the party would lose those two seats. I simply asked why he believed that.
Based on my calculations from that pretty pro Corbyn is it not?
You may be right of course, though personally I feel the Brexit-Remainer divide is grossly exaggerated. Put it this way: if the Tory lead does prove to be above 10% on the day, both seats will be held.
I reckon there are at most about five seats in the whole country which may end up being affected by the referendum result. (And in at least one of those, Heathrow expansion is likely to be a bigger issue than Brexit.)
If you count the UKIP vote now going to the Tories in Leave seats as well as tactical voting against the Tories in Remain seats it will be more than that
Am I right in thinking that apart from a short stint in minor office by Tom Watson, none of Corbyn's likely ministers have had any experience at all of government?
All the sane ones resigned from the shadow cabinet a while ago.
Yep. Sort of an astonishing thing though. (I may have missed someone with experience of some sort)
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
LOL. So we should trust the other polls with "dubious unproven methodologies"?
Nope you don't trust any specific poll but look at them as a whole make a judgement and certainly do not believe an extreme outlier .
But its not an extreme outlier is it.
It just a poll which gives a result you don't like.
The only recent extreme outliers are Norstat (no tested history in GB polling, didn't publish tables of their only previous poll according to TSE) and, borderline extreme, Survation (dodgy sample as discussed ad nauseam).
The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
so, fellow PBers , following the awful events of the last 24 hours , what is the consensus on how this will affect the result on Thursday? Will the tories cement their vote now and cause the waverers to return to nanny or will they blame it on government policy and flock to jezzbolah ?
I suspect it'll only have a small/very small effect.
Agreed. Reaction here and elsewhere makes it clear some people already committed will harden in their views, but most will very carefully not let it affect their voting choice.
We will see but from phoning I would be more worried about the Tories losing ultra Remain Oxford West and Abingdon than failing to gain Leave Chorley
Living in OxWAb as I do, it is hard to get a real sense of how the land lies. If you judge by my Facebook feed, the LDs are picking up lots of disaffected/tactical Labour votes. But I don't put any store by what I read on there.
The LDs have been bombarding people with fake news based election literature. I got 4 personal letters from them in 1 week - even though they have never canvassed me and have had no contact to suggest I was a likely LD voter. My housemates didn't receive anything in that period. It was getting ridiculous and so I demanded that they remove me from their lists - after which point, my housemates started getting all the mail!
I know Abingdon saw LD gains in the County elections and they have been trying to extrapolate that into a LD victory - but I don't believe it.
Layla Moran has not had any presence in the constituency since she lost 2 years ago - whereas Blackwood has been regular in her communication.
I think there will be a swing to the LDs (one of the few places in the country where that is going to happen) but I can't see it being enough to overturn a 10K majority.
Probably not but as you say there will probably be a swing to the yellows there
What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.
Are 70% even registered ?
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Could only manage around 55% or something of 18-24 year olds in Indyref and I get the sense level of engagement will be lower. Though they'll upvote on Reddit
What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.
Are 70% even registered ?
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Could only manage around 55% or something of 18-24 year olds in Indyref and I get the sense level of engagement will be lower. Though they'll upvote on Reddit
Turnout at the Scottish independence referendum was a massive 84%. What was youth turnout like then? Because turnout this time probably won't be more than 70% and so it's unlikely youth turnout will be as high as it was in Scotland in 2014.
The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
There are a load of Farron ones in fields along the M6 as you enter Cumbria. The sheep know which way to vote....
As I mentioned a few days ago the schools as part of their civic classes have been pushing kids to register once they are allowed which is from 16. This is a great thing and I love the fact they are doing it but I suspect that will somewhat warp your final voting numbers given there are two years worth of registrants who can't vote.
Turnout at the Scottish independence referendum was a massive 84%. What was youth turnout like then? Because turnout this time probably won't be more than 70% and so it's unlikely youth turnout will be as high as it was in Scotland in 2014.
Turnout at the Scottish independence referendum was a massive 84%. What was youth turnout like then? Because turnout this time probably won't be more than 70% and so it's unlikely youth turnout will be as high as it was in Scotland in 2014.
What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.
Are 70% even registered ?
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.
Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?
Worked out well then didn't it?
I've encountered ukip voters voting for corbyn and also lib dem voters in 2010 voted Tory 2015 remain and now corbyn.
Does everyone you meet tell you how they voted two years ago and how they're planning to vote now? I'm quite political but I have no idea how most of my colleagues will vote - and I'm certainly not going to ruin my relationship with them by asking.
so, fellow PBers , following the awful events of the last 24 hours , what is the consensus on how this will affect the result on Thursday? Will the tories cement their vote now and cause the waverers to return to nanny or will they blame it on government policy and flock to jezzbolah ?
I suspect it'll only have a small/very small effect.
Agreed. Reaction here and elsewhere makes it clear some people already committed will harden in their views, but most will very carefully not let it affect their voting choice.
I don't think people think like that - they will be swayed or not swayed by something, but they don't "very carefully" rule things out from consideration - the mind is not like a court prohibiting relevant evidence as inadmissible. I think many Corbynistas are only lightly attached to Corbynism and will opt for safety on Thursday. It's important that "Corbyn weak on defending the public" is not a brand new issue, it was already out there after QT and in this video, now closing in on 6m views.
If the labour surge is not being driven by an increase of young voters saying they wil vote, then maybe it must be coming from people who are more likley to vote and therefore the surge is real?
If the labour surge is not being driven by an increase of young voters saying they wil vote, then maybe it must be coming from people who are more likley to vote and therefore the surge is real?
I think this is saying that the self-reported value is wrong.
Despite 316k new registrants in 2015, turnout went down 1%.
The question is what is the final registration numbers and their age distribution. I think 2015 is misleading. 2010 is a better example for 18-24 turnout.
So in the above week, very few 55+ got themselves registered. They were probably registered already
The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
There are a load of Farron ones in fields along the M6 as you enter Cumbria. The sheep know which way to vote....
Out and about today in Farron country, and there was the usual heavy display of Lib dem posters. It is fairly normal round here, I am still surprised he is so popular in an area that you would think should be Con. He is very active locally, and obviously popular, I will watch the results with great interest.
Note this doesn't account for duplicate registrations (people who are already registered) or those moving house (which students do a lot). The number of new voters is probably a lot smaller.
Despite 316k new registrants in 2015, turnout went down 1%.
The question is what is the final registration numbers and their age distribution. I think 2015 is misleading. 2010 is a better example for 18-24 turnout.
The link between #registered and turnout change is pretty useful.
What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.
Are 70% even registered ?
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.
Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?
Worked out well then didn't it?
I've encountered ukip voters voting for corbyn and also lib dem voters in 2010 voted Tory 2015 remain and now corbyn.
Does everyone you meet tell you how they voted two years ago and how they're planning to vote now? I'm quite political but I have no idea how most of my colleagues will vote - and I'm certainly not going to ruin my relationship with them by asking.
My work place sent an email to all staff telling us to vote remain. I voted leave.
It's the way phrase questions, how you say it and the environment you do it in. You can get a lot out of people!e without them knowing. Sales\recruitment jobs teach you terrible butnuseful things.
so, fellow PBers , following the awful events of the last 24 hours , what is the consensus on how this will affect the result on Thursday? Will the tories cement their vote now and cause the waverers to return to nanny or will they blame it on government policy and flock to jezzbolah ?
I suspect it'll only have a small/very small effect.
Agreed. Reaction here and elsewhere makes it clear some people already committed will harden in their views, but most will very carefully not let it affect their voting choice.
I don't think people think like that - they will be swayed or not swayed by something, but they don't "very carefully" rule things out from consideration - the mind is not like a court prohibiting relevant evidence as inadmissible. I think many Corbynistas are only lightly attached to Corbynism and will opt for safety on Thursday. It's important that "Corbyn weak on defending the public" is not a brand new issue, it was already out there after QT and in this video, now closing in on 6m views.
'Very carefully' was perhaps not the best way of expressing how I think it would work. What I mean is, people are influenced in many subtle ways in how they intend to vote, but these incidents are very unsubtle, and to some extent that actually makes it less effective than it might is my theory, in that someone might be on the cusp of wavering, then think about if it is because of this very large thing, which they cannot ignore, and which they would not want to let influence them and change their mind, and so resist the temptation.
The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
There are a load of Farron ones in fields along the M6 as you enter Cumbria. The sheep know which way to vote....
Out and about today in Farron country, and there was the usual heavy display of Lib dem posters. It is fairly normal round here, I am still surprised he is so popular in an area that you would think should be Con. He is very active locally, and obviously popular, I will watch the results with great interest.
Driving through Milnthorpe around election time is always an unnerving experience; for a country town the political agitation there is quite extra-ordinary. If you suffer from epilepsy the constant blue-yellow flashing of the signs as you go past them all might be dangerous.
The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
There are a load of Farron ones in fields along the M6 as you enter Cumbria. The sheep know which way to vote....
Out and about today in Farron country, and there was the usual heavy display of Lib dem posters. It is fairly normal round here, I am still surprised he is so popular in an area that you would think should be Con. He is very active locally, and obviously popular, I will watch the results with great interest.
What to do? I normally stay up all night for GE, but next day I have a 20 hour journey to far flung places for my annual high altitude climbing adrenaline fix. Usually UNS has it sorted by 2.30am, but this year, who knows. I will miss the post mortem, and the wailing and gnashing of teeth.
What to do? I normally stay up all night for GE, but next day I have a 20 hour journey to far flung places for my annual high altitude climbing adrenaline fix. Usually UNS has it sorted by 2.30am, but this year, who knows. I will miss the post mortem, and the wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Exit poll will be at 10:00 pm as usual and it will a question of how big the majority will be.
After last night's atrocities, Sporting's political markets have been closed all day. Meanwhile Spreadex had the Tories up two seats at 362-368 with Labour down correspondingly at 199-205, much as I had forecast, after last night's more encouraging polls outlook for the Blue Team.
Turnout at the Scottish independence referendum was a massive 84%. What was youth turnout like then? Because turnout this time probably won't be more than 70% and so it's unlikely youth turnout will be as high as it was in Scotland in 2014.
The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
There are a load of Farron ones in fields along the M6 as you enter Cumbria. The sheep know which way to vote....
Out and about today in Farron country, and there was the usual heavy display of Lib dem posters. It is fairly normal round here, I am still surprised he is so popular in an area that you would think should be Con. He is very active locally, and obviously popular, I will watch the results with great interest.
Driving through Milnthorpe around election time is always an unnerving experience; for a country town the political agitation there is quite extra-ordinary. If you suffer from epilepsy the constant blue-yellow flashing of the signs as you go past them all might be dangerous.
Yes indeed going up the hill from the lights, it is solid support.
What to do? I normally stay up all night for GE, but next day I have a 20 hour journey to far flung places for my annual high altitude climbing adrenaline fix. Usually UNS has it sorted by 2.30am, but this year, who knows. I will miss the post mortem, and the wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Can you get internet acces on your flight?
I normally don't get any sleep before an exciting journey anyway.
I don't particularly care for Corbyn or Abbott, but I can't envisage even them scrapping armed police response. They might tinker with the rules of engagement, perhaps, to an unhelpful degree.
I believe the security forces would be allowed to use harsh words. But only if they weren't offensive to minority groups.
That bloke lobbing all the stuff like a football hooligan to stop being murdered obviously didn't get the memo.
The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
I have a slightly awkward situation online. The editor of my thrillers - very smart, likeable, and a huge supporter of my work when it needs it - has suddenly become a raging Corbynite on Twitter. Posting the most bat-shit memes and doo-lally bollocks. So I am having to mute her tweets or avoid them, lest we have a terrible argument which ruins my career....
More importantly, tho, is the mere fact she's buying it. She is middle aged, super bright, not a wide eyed naif.
I really think it is a semi-religious thing: once people are converted to Corbynism no evidence will ever budge them, and Corbyn is converting millions. Not particularly through his policies - though they like the hopey, changey, no-tuition-fee stuff - but just by being so unexpected and different. And apparently "authentic". By being *him*.
This says to me that Labour are deluded if they think they could win on these leftwing policies with "a better leader". Corbyn IS the best leader. The best man to present this crazy shit.
So Nick Palmer had a point, when many of us - me included - derided him. The bad news for Nick is that, if they lose next week, that's it. There isn't another, better, younger, saner Corbyn ready to take over. And he's 68.
What to do? I normally stay up all night for GE, but next day I have a 20 hour journey to far flung places for my annual high altitude climbing adrenaline fix. Usually UNS has it sorted by 2.30am, but this year, who knows. I will miss the post mortem, and the wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Exit poll will be at 10:00 pm as usual and it will a question of how big the majority will be.
Yes the exit poll is usually very good, and an opportunity to eat your hat.
What to do? I normally stay up all night for GE, but next day I have a 20 hour journey to far flung places for my annual high altitude climbing adrenaline fix. Usually UNS has it sorted by 2.30am, but this year, who knows. I will miss the post mortem, and the wailing and gnashing of teeth.
The big question is .... will you be up for any of the following - Caroline Lucas, Vincent Cable, Angus Robertson, Zac Goldsmith etc?
The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
I have a slightly awkward situation online. The editor of my thrillers - very smart, likeable, and a huge supporter of my work when it needs it - has suddenly become a raging Corbynite on Twitter. Posting the most bat-shit memes and doo-lally bollocks. So I am having to mute her tweets or avoid them, lest we have a terrible argument which ruins my career....
More importantly, tho, is the mere fact she's buying it. She is middle aged, super bright, not a wide eyed naif.
I really think it is a semi-religious thing: once people are converted to Corbynism no evidence will ever budge them, and Corbyn is converting millions. Not particularly through his policies - though they like the hopey, changey, no-tuition-fee stuff - but just by being so unexpected and different. And apparently "authentic". By being *him*.
This says to me that Labour are deluded if they think they could win on these leftwing policies with "a better leader". Corbyn IS the best leader. The best man to present this crazy shit.
So Nick Palmer had a point, when many of us - me included - derided him. The bad news for Nick is that, if they lose next week, that's it. There isn't another, better, younger, saner Corbyn ready to take over. And he's 68.
Richard Burgon.... [well he's younger, not sure he meets the other requirements tho]
Turnout at the Scottish independence referendum was a massive 84%. What was youth turnout like then? Because turnout this time probably won't be more than 70% and so it's unlikely youth turnout will be as high as it was in Scotland in 2014.
Something to be wary of is that a fair amount of that 18-24 group would have been non-Scottish students who would have felt it wasn't morally right to vote in the referendum.
From my time among a few Corbynistas, one a recent convert (and who has even voted Tory in the distant pas!) and one longstanding Labour fan, they will dismiss any of this as lies. The police cuts line has swayed them completely.
The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
There are a load of Farron ones in fields along the M6 as you enter Cumbria. The sheep know which way to vote....
Out and about today in Farron country, and there was the usual heavy display of Lib dem posters. It is fairly normal round here, I am still surprised he is so popular in an area that you would think should be Con. He is very active locally, and obviously popular, I will watch the results with great interest.
What to do? I normally stay up all night for GE, but next day I have a 20 hour journey to far flung places for my annual high altitude climbing adrenaline fix. Usually UNS has it sorted by 2.30am, but this year, who knows. I will miss the post mortem, and the wailing and gnashing of teeth.
The big question is .... will you be up for any of the following - Caroline Lucas, Vincent Cable, Angus Robertson, Zac Goldsmith etc?
Looks like The Sun are going to give Corbyn some serious grief. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't use this opportunity to now give their readers a huge list of his previous quotes.
The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
There are a load of Farron ones in fields along the M6 as you enter Cumbria. The sheep know which way to vote....
Out and about today in Farron country, and there was the usual heavy display of Lib dem posters. It is fairly normal round here, I am still surprised he is so popular in an area that you would think should be Con. He is very active locally, and obviously popular, I will watch the results with great interest.
He will win by at least 4000
Seat voted remain. Shd be safe.
I love the fact that Fish Finger is a shorter price than Labour there.
The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
I have a slightly awkward situation online. The editor of my thrillers - very smart, likeable, and a huge supporter of my work when it needs it - has suddenly become a raging Corbynite on Twitter. Posting the most bat-shit memes and doo-lally bollocks. So I am having to mute her tweets or avoid them, lest we have a terrible argument which ruins my career....
More importantly, tho, is the mere fact she's buying it. She is middle aged, super bright, not a wide eyed naif.
I really think it is a semi-religious thing: once people are converted to Corbynism no evidence will ever budge them, and Corbyn is converting millions. Not particularly through his policies - though they like the hopey, changey, no-tuition-fee stuff - but just by being so unexpected and different. And apparently "authentic". By being *him*.
This says to me that Labour are deluded if they think they could win on these leftwing policies with "a better leader". Corbyn IS the best leader. The best man to present this crazy shit.
So Nick Palmer had a point, when many of us - me included - derided him. The bad news for Nick is that, if they lose next week, that's it. There isn't another, better, younger, saner Corbyn ready to take over. And he's 68.
The bit in bold, totally agree. I find it, on its own, not sufficient, but so many people love it. A 30-50 majority seems likely as a result, which is no disaster, but leaves Corbyn in place.
Comments
We'll see....
Funnily enough the people moaning most about her calling an election seem to be the same people who kept claiming she didn't have a mandate to do anything she was trying to do.
So now she will have a mandate and they can shut the f**k up.
http://www.london-se1.co.uk/news/view/6811
https://twitter.com/HACAN1/status/869579558982385664
So time to build towards a big Thursday night - first up, did I see OGH tweet there's a Survation GMB poll out tonight....
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
This was before deadline
Worked out well then didn't it?
Figures comparing the week prior to the deadline in 2015 and 2017
Under 25 - 316k, 538k
25-34 - 330k, 442k
35-44 - 184k, 183k
45-54 - 123k, 101k
55-64 - 61k, 50k
65-74 - 27k, 21k
75 plus - 14k, 10k
Despite 316k new registrants in 2015, turnout went down 1%.
I still don't buy the line you are peddling.
54% voted
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/179807/Scottish-referendum-Public-Opinion-survey-ICM-Report-WEBSITE.pdf (Page 11)
this video, now closing in on 6m views.
This says UK population aged 18-24 is 5.7m.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/timeseries/jn5q/lms
So an extra 200k registrations is quite a small amount of the population in that age group.
But on the other hand- it's only been 2 years since last election, so we would expect not that many people are newly eligible to vote?
Not really sure how to interpret that!
https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/871423712788131841
So in the above week, very few 55+ got themselves registered. They were probably registered already
He is very active locally, and obviously popular, I will watch the results with great interest.
https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote/registrations-by-age-group
Note this doesn't account for duplicate registrations (people who are already registered) or those moving house (which students do a lot). The number of new voters is probably a lot smaller.
That's only in that week !
It's the way phrase questions, how you say it and the environment you do it in. You can get a lot out of people!e without them knowing. Sales\recruitment jobs teach you terrible butnuseful things.
As I say, only a theory.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/03/maybot-and-monsiuer-zen-drama-didnt-obey-script-thresea-may-jeremy-corbyn
Tory majority over 100 for me is where my money's going.
Usually UNS has it sorted by 2.30am, but this year, who knows.
I will miss the post mortem, and the wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Expect something like 50% max. and that is 6% higher then 2015.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/871426621202477057
I normally don't get any sleep before an exciting journey anyway.
http://www.madras.fife.sch.uk/
But now off to Wonder Woman.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/871429329628147717
If it makes any difference is another matter.