Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Given Labour's approach to defence related exports and the proposed banning of sales, it may be the case that they will not do as well as they have done in the past in Bristol as I believe some defence manufacturers are based in that city. Labour are talking the economics of the "mad house" on this and it would only lead to hardworking families being penalised for Labour party dogma. Labour seem to champion the welfare of non UK families before the people they seek to represent in parliament.
GKN, RR Defence, Spirit, Airbus. Smaller ones and suppliers as well.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
Hello all. Like many I guess I have been following and supporting PB for many years however I thought now is as a good time as ever to join in the discussion and this is my first post. So you know, I'm a novice better, a conservative and a leaver and my constituency is Richmond Park... yes there are some leavers in RP!
I agree with all those who have found this election campaign frustratingly bad but what keeps me awake at night is the thought of Corbyn in power next week and the impact on my children, my community and my country. As the remaining time in this election is likely to de dominated by the terrible events of last night is now not the time for Theresa May to follow up her well pitched speech this morning and go on the offensive and challenge JC to a head to head debate on security and counter terrorism? I'm sure ITV would jump at the chance of screening this tomorrow or Tuesday evening and JC can hardly refuse after his begging to get TM to debate him. Yes there is the police number issue which will come up but if explained within the context of an overall approach to counter terrorism strategy, those that bang on about 20,000 officers will soon be shown for the opportunists and novices that they are. It would help TM show the leadership that is needed to help secure those final few floating voters and ensure JC is exposed for the risk he truly is.
I would have thought that you would know whether you had been following PB for years, or not, and wouldn't need to guess?
Having turned down every opportunity to debate her opponents, she would look like an idiot suddenly popping up and proposing a debate now. She has done more than her share of flip-flopping during the campaign as it is. Besides, surely all the evidence suggests that she wouldn't be very good at it?
So what's one more flip flop? It's not going to damage her further. She needs to control the narrative and this is one clear way of doing so over and above a set piece speech.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
We have no idea if they are 12% ahead or not...
With respect , yes we do , we do not no the true lead , but we can be sure it is not the 12% arrived at by Comres after dubious weighting adjustments turn a 3% lead into 12 .
Yougov today have 63% of 18-24 year olds absolutely certain to vote, in election 2015 43% of 18 to 24s actually turned cast a ballot. 76% of 65+ are absolutely certain to vote and in election 2015 78% of over 65 year olds voted
ISTR that YouGov posted earlier in the week that the comparable certain to vote figure in 2015 a week out was 61% or so, and only 43% turned out. Doesn't bode well for the 63% certain to turn out this time...
Yes, the Corbyn 'surge' is very reliant on young voters in the inner cities it seems
So they likely won't turn out. And even if they do it'll be in all the wrong places.
But I feel that they will turn out in greater numbers than in 2015, when Mili v Cammo was hardly a big draw for the young. Which is why Comres and ICM may well be under-estimating Labour by using a turnout model replicating 2015. On the other hand I don't believe it possible for younger voters to turn out at the levels implied by Survation.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
We have no idea if they are 12% ahead or not...
With respect , yes we do , we do not no the true lead , but we can be sure it is not the 12% arrived at by Comres after dubious weighting adjustments turn a 3% lead into 12 .
Based on 2015 turnout demographics actually we can be sure
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
Sunday lunch - table of 15.(friends family) serious debate mixtures of old, middle aged and young over 18.
Terrorism 1) Teresa may has to end the relationship with Saudi Arabia. UK cannot allow any funding from them. 2)
Why people won't vote for corbyn 1) rise in taxes for rich. Rich people pass the cost onto you and you will end paying. 2) nationalisation isn't the right policy. Railways it may work but royal mail no. 3) NHS is finished. Costs the NHS\taxpayer £500 for every cancellation. Can't keeps pending money.
Why people won't vote for may. 1) She has no charisma or personality like Boris and she's so depressing to listen to. 2) She is a remained but using credit for political gain. She needs to go for a true remainer who understand why brexit is good and the benefits it brings. 3) She was a crap home secretary. Cut police numbers and immigration went up every year. Immigration will always rise under may as rich employers want cheap labour and police with!! Be cut to fund tax cuts for rich.
Who people voting for 2015 Conservative - 7 Labour - 0 Lib dem - 1 Green - 1 Ukip - 3 Didn't vote - 3
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
If he *is* on the record opposing reasonable force, please can you cite some evidence? I can't find any and would be interested to know where the allegation comes from.
When you are having to explain Corbyn's shoot to kill policy you have a problem
Right now I don't think any of us should be demanding that anyone says anything. It's sensible to discuss what needs to be done (e.g. have we changed our views on how much snooping the intelligence people can reasonably do? I think maybe yes), but let's wait till the day is out as our various parties have requested before we resume bashing each other.
Very poor attempt to kick this into touch. Corbyn is unelectable because of his back history and current statements. And yet you support such a man.
Pffffffffffff
A person who cut police numbers by 20000 cannot be re-elected after what happened yesterday.
What would have those extra 20k cops been doing yesterday, I wonder. Crime has fallen despite the fall in numbers.
There could have been an extra 2 million police and it would have made no difference - the police response by all accounts was exemplary.
The question will be whether the 3 killers were known to the police and security services. Perhaps with more police they could have been picked up earlier. That is where the extra numbers may have made a difference. No one is faulting the speed and efficacy of the response.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
We have no idea if they are 12% ahead or not...
With respect , yes we do , we do not no the true lead , but we can be sure it is not the 12% arrived at by Comres after dubious weighting adjustments turn a 3% lead into 12 .
Errm we really DON'T know. If anyone KNEW then they'd be off on a Carribean island come Friday.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
tsk JohnO what is PB coming to ?
last week of the campaign and we're not discussing swing back
Sunday lunch - table of 15.(friends family) serious debate mixtures of old, middle aged and young over 18.
Terrorism 1) Teresa may has to end the relationship with Saudi Arabia. UK cannot allow any funding from them. 2)
Why people won't vote for corbyn 1) rise in taxes for rich. Rich people pass the cost onto you and you will end paying. 2) nationalisation isn't the right policy. Railways it may work but royal mail no. 3) NHS is finished. Costs the NHS\taxpayer £500 for every cancellation. Can't keeps pending money.
Why people won't vote for may. 1) She has no charisma or personality like Boris and she's so depressing to listen to. 2) She is a remained but using credit for political gain. She needs to go for a true remainer who understand why brexit is good and the benefits it brings. 3) She was a crap home secretary. Cut police numbers and immigration went up every year. Immigration will always rise under may as rich employers want cheap labour and police with!! Be cut to fund tax cuts for rich.
Who people voting for 2015 Conservative - 7 Labour - 0 Lib dem - 1 Green - 1 Ukip - 3 Didn't vote - 3
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
It is all down to regional swing, Comres is showing a big swing to the Tories in the North West, Wales, the North East and the East Midlands and Scotland relative to 2015. However there is a slight swing to Labour in the South East and South West, in both regions the Tory voteshare is either the same as 2015 or fractionally up it is just the Labour vote is up more
Ah, based on tiny sub samples, which are totally useless and once were banned by Mike Smithson
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Given Labour's approach to defence related exports and the proposed banning of sales, it may be the case that they will not do as well as they have done in the past in Bristol as I believe some defence manufacturers are based in that city. Labour are talking the economics of the "mad house" on this and it would only lead to hardworking families being penalised for Labour party dogma. Labour seem to champion the welfare of non UK families before the people they seek to represent in parliament.
GKN, RR Defence, Spirit, Airbus. Smaller ones and suppliers as well.
Indeed, I hope the employees have been made aware of Team Corbyn and their attitude to their future prosperity. It would just be economic vandalism to ban arms exports and who picks up the lost trade; the French, US and other countries we are in competition against economically. We make them richer and ourselves poorer!
Corbyn is a lunatic.
The same with his not retaliating in the case of a nuclear strike. My view is if someone attacks us we hit them back. Corbyn seems to advocate that it is alright for people to kill British people but it is not alright to kill armies that want to defeat the British state.
In my opinion, going hard on the garden tax would be a huge error as the come back would be, 'people can't get a house under the Tories and not a hope of a house with a garden'. it would play very badly with the 'just about managing'.
There is a video doing the rounds which has been produced by some policemen, it is strongly attacking the cut in police numbers. This could have a huge impact depending on who sees it.
If he *is* on the record opposing reasonable force, please can you cite some evidence? I can't find any and would be interested to know where the allegation comes from.
When you are having to explain Corbyn's shoot to kill policy you have a problem
Right now I don't think any of us should be demanding that anyone says anything. It's sensible to discuss what needs to be done (e.g. have we changed our views on how much snooping the intelligence people can reasonably do? I think maybe yes), but let's wait till the day is out as our various parties have requested before we resume bashing each other.
Very poor attempt to kick this into touch. Corbyn is unelectable because of his back history and current statements. And yet you support such a man.
Pffffffffffff
A person who cut police numbers by 20000 cannot be re-elected after what happened yesterday.
What would have those extra 20k cops been doing yesterday, I wonder. Crime has fallen despite the fall in numbers.
There could have been an extra 2 million police and it would have made no difference - the police response by all accounts was exemplary.
The question will be whether the 3 killers were known to the police and security services. Perhaps with more police they could have been picked up earlier. That is where the extra numbers may have made a difference. No one is faulting the speed and efficacy of the response.
If they had been known wouldn't it have been MI5 monitoring them?
Sunday lunch - table of 15.(friends family) serious debate mixtures of old, middle aged and young over 18.
Terrorism 1) Teresa may has to end the relationship with Saudi Arabia. UK cannot allow any funding from them. 2)
Why people won't vote for corbyn 1) rise in taxes for rich. Rich people pass the cost onto you and you will end paying. 2) nationalisation isn't the right policy. Railways it may work but royal mail no. 3) NHS is finished. Costs the NHS\taxpayer £500 for every cancellation. Can't keeps pending money.
Why people won't vote for may. 1) She has no charisma or personality like Boris and she's so depressing to listen to. 2) She is a remained but using credit for political gain. She needs to go for a true remainer who understand why brexit is good and the benefits it brings. 3) She was a crap home secretary. Cut police numbers and immigration went up every year. Immigration will always rise under may as rich employers want cheap labour and police with!! Be cut to fund tax cuts for rich.
Who people voting for 2015 Conservative - 7 Labour - 0 Lib dem - 1 Green - 1 Ukip - 3 Didn't vote - 3
Sunday lunch - table of 15.(friends family) serious debate mixtures of old, middle aged and young over 18.
Terrorism 1) Teresa may has to end the relationship with Saudi Arabia. UK cannot allow any funding from them. 2)
Why people won't vote for corbyn 1) rise in taxes for rich. Rich people pass the cost onto you and you will end paying. 2) nationalisation isn't the right policy. Railways it may work but royal mail no. 3) NHS is finished. Costs the NHS\taxpayer £500 for every cancellation. Can't keeps pending money.
Why people won't vote for may. 1) She has no charisma or personality like Boris and she's so depressing to listen to. 2) She is a remained but using credit for political gain. She needs to go for a true remainer who understand why brexit is good and the benefits it brings. 3) She was a crap home secretary. Cut police numbers and immigration went up every year. Immigration will always rise under may as rich employers want cheap labour and police with!! Be cut to fund tax cuts for rich.
Who people voting for 2015 Conservative - 7 Labour - 0 Lib dem - 1 Green - 1 Ukip - 3 Didn't vote - 3
2017 expected vote Conservative - 8 Labour - 5 Lib dem - 0 Green - 0 Ukip - 0 Undecided - 1 Won't vote - 1
That's a massive swing to Corbyn for people who say they won't vote for him!
It was the under 25s, young mums, one public sector working voting for first time, all old people voting Tory. Corbyn didn't have one person over 50 voting for him.
Sunday lunch - table of 15.(friends family) serious debate mixtures of old, middle aged and young over 18.
Terrorism 1) Teresa may has to end the relationship with Saudi Arabia. UK cannot allow any funding from them. 2)
Why people won't vote for corbyn 1) rise in taxes for rich. Rich people pass the cost onto you and you will end paying. 2) nationalisation isn't the right policy. Railways it may work but royal mail no. 3) NHS is finished. Costs the NHS\taxpayer £500 for every cancellation. Can't keeps pending money.
Why people won't vote for may. 1) She has no charisma or personality like Boris and she's so depressing to listen to. 2) She is a remained but using credit for political gain. She needs to go for a true remainer who understand why brexit is good and the benefits it brings. 3) She was a crap home secretary. Cut police numbers and immigration went up every year. Immigration will always rise under may as rich employers want cheap labour and police with!! Be cut to fund tax cuts for rich.
Who people voting for 2015 Conservative - 7 Labour - 0 Lib dem - 1 Green - 1 Ukip - 3 Didn't vote - 3
In my opinion, going hard on the garden tax would be a huge error as the come back would be, 'people can't get a house under the Tories and not a hope of a house with a garden'. it would play very badly with the 'just about managing'.
There is a video doing the rounds which has been produced by some policemen, it is strongly attacking the cut in police numbers. This could have a huge impact depending on who sees it.
I actually got a voter this very morning saying he was voting Tory because of the 'garden tax.' As for police numbers, the terrorists were killed very swiftly but only through the 'shoot to kill' policy Corbyn is not fully signed up to
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
tsk JohnO what is PB coming to ?
last week of the campaign and we're not discussing swing back
Ah, my fellow bogtrotter, it's now time for you to reveal whether on June 8th, the Brookie good lady, and the vast hoards of the Brookie babes are going to be permitted to cast their votes for Mrs May this time? Could we see the turnout in Stratford on Avon soar to stratospheric levels?
Sunday lunch - table of 15.(friends family) serious debate mixtures of old, middle aged and young over 18.
Terrorism 1) Teresa may has to end the relationship with Saudi Arabia. UK cannot allow any funding from them. 2)
Why people won't vote for corbyn 1) rise in taxes for rich. Rich people pass the cost onto you and you will end paying. 2) nationalisation isn't the right policy. Railways it may work but royal mail no. 3) NHS is finished. Costs the NHS\taxpayer £500 for every cancellation. Can't keeps pending money.
Why people won't vote for may. 1) She has no charisma or personality like Boris and she's so depressing to listen to. 2) She is a remained but using credit for political gain. She needs to go for a true remainer who understand why brexit is good and the benefits it brings. 3) She was a crap home secretary. Cut police numbers and immigration went up every year. Immigration will always rise under may as rich employers want cheap labour and police with!! Be cut to fund tax cuts for rich.
Who people voting for 2015 Conservative - 7 Labour - 0 Lib dem - 1 Green - 1 Ukip - 3 Didn't vote - 3
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
It is all down to regional swing, Comres is showing a big swing to the Tories in the North West, Wales, the North East and the East Midlands and Scotland relative to 2015. However there is a slight swing to Labour in the South East and South West, in both regions the Tory voteshare is either the same as 2015 or fractionally up it is just the Labour vote is up more
Ah, based on tiny sub samples, which are totally useless and once were banned by Mike Smithson
Well think what you want but they actually match the full Yougov regional survey on May 15th which had the Tories up and Labour down in the North and Midlands and Wales and fractionally in London relative to 2015 but Labour also up in the South East and South West relative to 2015 and since then as Labour has risen further and the Tories fallen back a little the trend has only increased. It surely makes sense that the Tories will get a bigger swing in Brexitshire north of Watford and far less in the South and London which was more pro Remain https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
You think it's more?
No , certainly less but no idea how much less .
If you've got no idea how can you be certain it's less?
Sunday lunch - table of 15.(friends family) serious debate mixtures of old, middle aged and young over 18.
Terrorism 1) Teresa may has to end the relationship with Saudi Arabia. UK cannot allow any funding from them. 2)
Why people won't vote for corbyn 1) rise in taxes for rich. Rich people pass the cost onto you and you will end paying. 2) nationalisation isn't the right policy. Railways it may work but royal mail no. 3) NHS is finished. Costs the NHS\taxpayer £500 for every cancellation. Can't keeps pending money.
Why people won't vote for may. 1) She has no charisma or personality like Boris and she's so depressing to listen to. 2) She is a remained but using credit for political gain. She needs to go for a true remainer who understand why brexit is good and the benefits it brings. 3) She was a crap home secretary. Cut police numbers and immigration went up every year. Immigration will always rise under may as rich employers want cheap labour and police with!! Be cut to fund tax cuts for rich.
Who people voting for 2015 Conservative - 7 Labour - 0 Lib dem - 1 Green - 1 Ukip - 3 Didn't vote - 3
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
LOL. So we should trust the other polls with "dubious unproven methodologies"?
In my opinion, going hard on the garden tax would be a huge error as the come back would be, 'people can't get a house under the Tories and not a hope of a house with a garden'. it would play very badly with the 'just about managing'.
There is a video doing the rounds which has been produced by some policemen, it is strongly attacking the cut in police numbers. This could have a huge impact depending on who sees it.
I actually got a voter this very morning saying he was voting Tory because of the 'garden tax.' As for police numbers, the terrorists were killed very swiftly but only through the 'shoot to kill' policy Corbyn is not fully signed up to
He probably would not allow 'shoot to kill' if he was PM, how would someone like Corbyn respond to a crisis. He would probably just say the opponents were in the right and give up. A truly spineless, wobbling jelly of a man. He might be well intended but only to those who don't live in the UK or want to inflict harm upon our society.
Sunday lunch - table of 15.(friends family) serious debate mixtures of old, middle aged and young over 18.
Terrorism 1) Teresa may has to end the relationship with Saudi Arabia. UK cannot allow any funding from them. 2)
Why people won't vote for corbyn 1) rise in taxes for rich. Rich people pass the cost onto you and you will end paying. 2) nationalisation isn't the right policy. Railways it may work but royal mail no. 3) NHS is finished. Costs the NHS\taxpayer £500 for every cancellation. Can't keeps pending money.
Why people won't vote for may. 1) She has no charisma or personality like Boris and she's so depressing to listen to. 2) She is a remained but using credit for political gain. She needs to go for a true remainer who understand why brexit is good and the benefits it brings. 3) She was a crap home secretary. Cut police numbers and immigration went up every year. Immigration will always rise under may as rich employers want cheap labour and police with!! Be cut to fund tax cuts for rich.
Who people voting for 2015 Conservative - 7 Labour - 0 Lib dem - 1 Green - 1 Ukip - 3 Didn't vote - 3
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
What are you drooling on about? HYUFD quoted a poll that had the Tories 12% ahead nationally but he thought the party would lose those two seats. I simply asked why he believed that.
What concerns me about the pollsters is why, if tuned-in PB'ers can immediately see that:
- Survation is wrong to assume that every middle aged person who refuses to give an opinion, or is undecided, won't vote, and that every single young person who says they intend to vote next Thursday actually will;
- ICM and ComRes are wrong to assume that young voters' turnout won't increase (relative to older voters) from 2015, when Corbyn has clearly enthused young people during this campaign far more than Mr Bacon Sandwich ever achieved;
these respective polling companies appear to be blind to these self-evident conclusions?
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
What are you drooling on about? HYUFD quoted a poll that had the Tories 12% ahead nationally but he thought the party would lose those two seats. I simply asked why he believed that.
Sunday lunch - table of 15.(friends family) serious debate mixtures of old, middle aged and young over 18.
Terrorism 1) Teresa may has to end the relationship with Saudi Arabia. UK cannot allow any funding from them. 2)
Why people won't vote for corbyn 1) rise in taxes for rich. Rich people pass the cost onto you and you will end paying. 2) nationalisation isn't the right policy. Railways it may work but royal mail no. 3) NHS is finished. Costs the NHS\taxpayer £500 for every cancellation. Can't keeps pending money.
Why people won't vote for may. 1) She has no charisma or personality like Boris and she's so depressing to listen to. 2) She is a remained but using credit for political gain. She needs to go for a true remainer who understand why brexit is good and the benefits it brings. 3) She was a crap home secretary. Cut police numbers and immigration went up every year. Immigration will always rise under may as rich employers want cheap labour and police with!! Be cut to fund tax cuts for rich.
Who people voting for 2015 Conservative - 7 Labour - 0 Lib dem - 1 Green - 1 Ukip - 3 Didn't vote - 3
2017 expected vote Conservative - 8 Labour - 5 Lib dem - 0 Green - 0 Ukip - 0 Undecided - 1 Won't vote - 1
That's a massive swing to Corbyn for people who say they won't vote for him!
I always choose my dining companions on the basis that they're a representative political sample. Although the absence here of "not telling you" is perhaps a little out of line with the population as a whole. Still I'm sure that it's a wholly honest tale.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
No, it chimes in with ICM which also properly weighs according to 2015 turnout unlike Yougov
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
LOL. So we should trust the other polls with "dubious unproven methodologies"?
Nope you don't trust any specific poll but look at them as a whole make a judgement and certainly do not believe an extreme outlier .
Sunday lunch - table of 15.(friends family) serious debate mixtures of old, middle aged and young over 18.
Terrorism 1) Teresa may has to end the relationship with Saudi Arabia. UK cannot allow any funding from them. 2)
Why people won't vote for corbyn 1) rise in taxes for rich. Rich people pass the cost onto you and you will end paying. 2) nationalisation isn't the right policy. Railways it may work but royal mail no. 3) NHS is finished. Costs the NHS\taxpayer £500 for every cancellation. Can't keeps pending money.
Why people won't vote for may. 1) She has no charisma or personality like Boris and she's so depressing to listen to. 2) She is a remained but using credit for political gain. She needs to go for a true remainer who understand why brexit is good and the benefits it brings. 3) She was a crap home secretary. Cut police numbers and immigration went up every year. Immigration will always rise under may as rich employers want cheap labour and police with!! Be cut to fund tax cuts for rich.
Who people voting for 2015 Conservative - 7 Labour - 0 Lib dem - 1 Green - 1 Ukip - 3 Didn't vote - 3
2017 expected vote Conservative - 8 Labour - 5 Lib dem - 0 Green - 0 Ukip - 0 Undecided - 1 Won't vote - 1
That's a massive swing to Corbyn for people who say they won't vote for him!
I always choose my dining companions on the basis that they're a representative political sample. Although the absence here of "not telling you" is perhaps a little out of line with the population as a whole. Still I'm sure that it's a wholly honest tale.
One thing it will be right on is both Tory and Labour voteshares will be up on Thursday
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
LOL. So we should trust the other polls with "dubious unproven methodologies"?
Nope you don't trust any specific poll but look at them as a whole make a judgement and certainly do not believe an extreme outlier .
And that's a reason to label them as having a "dubious unproven methodology"?
It will be interesting to see how the new anti-terror plan plays with the electorate.
Seen simply, TM looks decisive by talking up the four new actions.
However, it implies what her own government has been doing enough. Also as it is not in the manifesto it looks like it just been thought up. The danger for TM is that she has already started to project an image of a flip-flopper on several issues.
It's legitimate to review things after events.
And the 'enough is enough' line makes it clear that she is saying 'we've tried one approach and that doesn't work any more'. I think it may resonate with a lot of voters.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
What are you drooling on about? HYUFD quoted a poll that had the Tories 12% ahead nationally but he thought the party would lose those two seats. I simply asked why he believed that.
Based on my calculations from that poll and accounting for regional swings I have the Tories with a majority of 86 but it is possible that the Tories could get a majority that high and still lose seats in Bristol and Brighton which both voted Remain and which both have universities and lots of young people and which are also pretty pro Corbyn is it not?
Sunday lunch - table of 15.(friends family) serious debate mixtures of old, middle aged and young over 18.
Terrorism 1) Teresa may has to end the relationship with Saudi Arabia. UK cannot allow any funding from them. 2)
Why people won't vote for corbyn 1) rise in taxes for rich. Rich people pass the cost onto you and you will end paying. 2) nationalisation isn't the right policy. Railways it may work but royal mail no. 3) NHS is finished. Costs the NHS\taxpayer £500 for every cancellation. Can't keeps pending money.
Why people won't vote for may. 1) She has no charisma or personality like Boris and she's so depressing to listen to. 2) She is a remained but using credit for political gain. She needs to go for a true remainer who understand why brexit is good and the benefits it brings. 3) She was a crap home secretary. Cut police numbers and immigration went up every year. Immigration will always rise under may as rich employers want cheap labour and police with!! Be cut to fund tax cuts for rich.
Who people voting for 2015 Conservative - 7 Labour - 0 Lib dem - 1 Green - 1 Ukip - 3 Didn't vote - 3
2017 expected vote Conservative - 8 Labour - 5 Lib dem - 0 Green - 0 Ukip - 0 Undecided - 1 Won't vote - 1
That's a massive swing to Corbyn for people who say they won't vote for him!
I always choose my dining companions on the basis that they're a representative political sample. Although the absence here of "not telling you" is perhaps a little out of line with the population as a whole. Still I'm sure that it's a wholly honest tale.
No-one one over 50 would consider corbyn and told the young ones that their idiots.
Young ones talking about social media, how they don't want a hard brexit and lack of opportunities of changing careers or getting a nice house
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
LOL. So we should trust the other polls with "dubious unproven methodologies"?
Nope you don't trust any specific poll but look at them as a whole make a judgement and certainly do not believe an extreme outlier .
But its not an extreme outlier is it.
It just a poll which gives a result you don't like.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
LOL. So we should trust the other polls with "dubious unproven methodologies"?
Nope you don't trust any specific poll but look at them as a whole make a judgement and certainly do not believe an extreme outlier .
But its not an extreme outlier is it.
It just a poll which gives a result you don't like.
If it was an extreme outlier they wouldn't have had two in a row.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
In my opinion, going hard on the garden tax would be a huge error as the come back would be, 'people can't get a house under the Tories and not a hope of a house with a garden'. it would play very badly with the 'just about managing'.
There is a video doing the rounds which has been produced by some policemen, it is strongly attacking the cut in police numbers. This could have a huge impact depending on who sees it.
I actually got a voter this very morning saying he was voting Tory because of the 'garden tax.' As for police numbers, the terrorists were killed very swiftly but only through the 'shoot to kill' policy Corbyn is not fully signed up to
Be fairly hard to shoot them if Labour disarm the police.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
LOL. So we should trust the other polls with "dubious unproven methodologies"?
Nope you don't trust any specific poll but look at them as a whole make a judgement and certainly do not believe an extreme outlier .
And that's a reason to label them as having a "dubious unproven methodology"?
Look , you believe what you want to believe , it is not that long ago that you believed Labour were heading for less than 25% in this GE . We will find out on Thursday whose unproven methodology is closest to the result .
Sunday lunch - table of 15.(friends family) serious debate mixtures of old, middle aged and young over 18.
Terrorism 1) Teresa may has to end the relationship with Saudi Arabia. UK cannot allow any funding from them. 2)
Why people won't vote for corbyn 1) rise in taxes for rich. Rich people pass the cost onto you and you will end paying. 2) nationalisation isn't the right policy. Railways it may work but royal mail no. 3) NHS is finished. Costs the NHS\taxpayer £500 for every cancellation. Can't keeps pending money.
Why people won't vote for may. 1) She has no charisma or personality like Boris and she's so depressing to listen to. 2) She is a remained but using credit for political gain. She needs to go for a true remainer who understand why brexit is good and the benefits it brings. 3) She was a crap home secretary. Cut police numbers and immigration went up every year. Immigration will always rise under may as rich employers want cheap labour and police with!! Be cut to fund tax cuts for rich.
Who people voting for 2015 Conservative - 7 Labour - 0 Lib dem - 1 Green - 1 Ukip - 3 Didn't vote - 3
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
LOL. So we should trust the other polls with "dubious unproven methodologies"?
Nope you don't trust any specific poll but look at them as a whole make a judgement and certainly do not believe an extreme outlier .
And that's a reason to label them as having a "dubious unproven methodology"?
Look , you believe what you want to believe , it is not that long ago that you believed Labour were heading for less than 25% in this GE . We will find out on Thursday whose unproven methodology is closest to the result .
In my opinion, going hard on the garden tax would be a huge error as the come back would be, 'people can't get a house under the Tories and not a hope of a house with a garden'. it would play very badly with the 'just about managing'.
There is a video doing the rounds which has been produced by some policemen, it is strongly attacking the cut in police numbers. This could have a huge impact depending on who sees it.
I actually got a voter this very morning saying he was voting Tory because of the 'garden tax.' As for police numbers, the terrorists were killed very swiftly but only through the 'shoot to kill' policy Corbyn is not fully signed up to
He probably would not allow 'shoot to kill' if he was PM, how would someone like Corbyn respond to a crisis. He would probably just say the opponents were in the right and give up. A truly spineless, wobbling jelly of a man. He might be well intended but only to those who don't live in the UK or want to inflict harm upon our society.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
What are you drooling on about? HYUFD quoted a poll that had the Tories 12% ahead nationally but he thought the party would lose those two seats. I simply asked why he believed that.
Based on my calculations from that poll and accounting for regional swings I have the Tories with a majority of 86 but it is possible that the Tories could get a majority that high and still lose seats in Bristol and Brighton which both voted Remain and which both have universities and lots of young people and which are also pretty pro Corbyn is it not?
You may be right of course, though personally I feel the Brexit-Remainer divide is grossly exaggerated. Put it this way: if the Tory lead does prove to be above 10% on the day, both seats will be held.
In my opinion, going hard on the garden tax would be a huge error as the come back would be, 'people can't get a house under the Tories and not a hope of a house with a garden'. it would play very badly with the 'just about managing'.
There is a video doing the rounds which has been produced by some policemen, it is strongly attacking the cut in police numbers. This could have a huge impact depending on who sees it.
The bottom line is that the Tories are obsessed with negative campaigning and think that banging on about Corbyn will guarantee them victory (because that is of course why they called the election in the first place), whereas the average man or woman in the street wants to know why, since the Tories have troubled us with this unnecessary election, the Conservative programme for government over the next five years should actually merit our support?
In my opinion, going hard on the garden tax would be a huge error as the come back would be, 'people can't get a house under the Tories and not a hope of a house with a garden'. it would play very badly with the 'just about managing'.
There is a video doing the rounds which has been produced by some policemen, it is strongly attacking the cut in police numbers. This could have a huge impact depending on who sees it.
I actually got a voter this very morning saying he was voting Tory because of the 'garden tax.' As for police numbers, the terrorists were killed very swiftly but only through the 'shoot to kill' policy Corbyn is not fully signed up to
Be fairly hard to shoot them if Labour disarm the police.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
LOL. So we should trust the other polls with "dubious unproven methodologies"?
Nope you don't trust any specific poll but look at them as a whole make a judgement and certainly do not believe an extreme outlier .
But its not an extreme outlier is it.
It just a poll which gives a result you don't like.
It is the poll with the highest Conservative lead , by definition it is an extreme outlier just as at the other extreme is Survation with its 1% lead .
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
What are you drooling on about? HYUFD quoted a poll that had the Tories 12% ahead nationally but he thought the party would lose those two seats. I simply asked why he believed that.
Based on my calculations from that poll and accounting for regional swings I have the Tories with a majority of 86 but it is possible that the Tories could get a majority that high and still lose seats in Bristol and Brighton which both voted Remain and which both have universities and lots of young people and which are also pretty pro Corbyn is it not?
You may be right of course, though personally I feel the Brexit-Remainer divide is grossly exaggerated. Put it this way: if the Tory lead does prove to be above 10% on the day, both seats will be held.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
LOL. So we should trust the other polls with "dubious unproven methodologies"?
Nope you don't trust any specific poll but look at them as a whole make a judgement and certainly do not believe an extreme outlier .
But its not an extreme outlier is it.
It just a poll which gives a result you don't like.
If it was an extreme outlier they wouldn't have had two in a row.
Quite - an 'outlier' would be a double digit lead in a field of low single digit polls - or vice versa - but we've got a clear range of 'low double digit' and 'mid-single digit' leads.
In my opinion, going hard on the garden tax would be a huge error as the come back would be, 'people can't get a house under the Tories and not a hope of a house with a garden'. it would play very badly with the 'just about managing'.
There is a video doing the rounds which has been produced by some policemen, it is strongly attacking the cut in police numbers. This could have a huge impact depending on who sees it.
The bottom line is that the Tories are obsessed with negative campaigning and think that banging on about Corbyn will guarantee them victory (because that is of course why they called the election in the first place), whereas the average man or woman in the street wants to know why, since the Tories have troubled us with this unnecessary election, the Conservative programme for government over the next five years should actually merit our support?
Very true , the Conservatives have nothing to campaign positively on , the Strong and Stable message having been replaced by Weak and Wobbly .
In my opinion, going hard on the garden tax would be a huge error as the come back would be, 'people can't get a house under the Tories and not a hope of a house with a garden'. it would play very badly with the 'just about managing'.
There is a video doing the rounds which has been produced by some policemen, it is strongly attacking the cut in police numbers. This could have a huge impact depending on who sees it.
The bottom line is that the Tories are obsessed with negative campaigning and think that banging on about Corbyn will guarantee them victory (because that is of course why they called the election in the first place), whereas the average man or woman in the street wants to know why, since the Tories have troubled us with this unnecessary election, the Conservative programme for government over the next five years should actually merit our support?
Very true , the Conservatives have nothing to campaign positively on , the Strong and Stable message having been replaced by Weak and Wobbly .
And I suppose people banging on about the Tories stealing your house is positive campaigning?
I expect a Tory majority of around 100, could be 150 with terrorism attack but after todays lunch, I really think we could be underestimating the young vote.
3 people all voting labour (green, lib dem, didn't vote). One who didn't vote last time has 2 sisters (voted to leave and are voting labour first time.
Youth vote is engaged and despite living with parents are voting. Do children living at home get canvassed?
In my opinion, going hard on the garden tax would be a huge error as the come back would be, 'people can't get a house under the Tories and not a hope of a house with a garden'. it would play very badly with the 'just about managing'.
There is a video doing the rounds which has been produced by some policemen, it is strongly attacking the cut in police numbers. This could have a huge impact depending on who sees it.
The bottom line is that the Tories are obsessed with negative campaigning and think that banging on about Corbyn will guarantee them victory (because that is of course why they called the election in the first place), whereas the average man or woman in the street wants to know why, since the Tories have troubled us with this unnecessary election, the Conservative programme for government over the next five years should actually merit our support?
Very true , the Conservatives have nothing to campaign positively on , the Strong and Stable message having been replaced by Weak and Wobbly .
And I suppose people banging on about the Tories stealing your house is positive campaigning?
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
What are you drooling on about? HYUFD quoted a poll that had the Tories 12% ahead nationally but he thought the party would lose those two seats. I simply asked why he believed that.
Based on my calculations from that poll and accounting for regional swings I have the Tories with a majority of 86 but it is possible that the Tories could get a majority that high and still lose seats in Bristol and Brighton which both voted Remain and which both have universities and lots of young people and which are also pretty pro Corbyn is it not?
You may be right of course, though personally I feel the Brexit-Remainer divide is grossly exaggerated. Put it this way: if the Tory lead does prove to be above 10% on the day, both seats will be held.
We will see but from phoning I would be more worried about the Tories losing ultra Remain Oxford West and Abingdon than failing to gain Leave Chorley
In my opinion, going hard on the garden tax would be a huge error as the come back would be, 'people can't get a house under the Tories and not a hope of a house with a garden'. it would play very badly with the 'just about managing'.
There is a video doing the rounds which has been produced by some policemen, it is strongly attacking the cut in police numbers. This could have a huge impact depending on who sees it.
The bottom line is that the Tories are obsessed with negative campaigning and think that banging on about Corbyn will guarantee them victory (because that is of course why they called the election in the first place), whereas the average man or woman in the street wants to know why, since the Tories have troubled us with this unnecessary election, the Conservative programme for government over the next five years should actually merit our support?
Very true , the Conservatives have nothing to campaign positively on , the Strong and Stable message having been replaced by Weak and Wobbly .
And I suppose people banging on about the Tories stealing your house is positive campaigning?
They are though
Ah, so it's okay if you are just repeating the truth? Glad we cleared that up.
In my opinion, going hard on the garden tax would be a huge error as the come back would be, 'people can't get a house under the Tories and not a hope of a house with a garden'. it would play very badly with the 'just about managing'.
There is a video doing the rounds which has been produced by some policemen, it is strongly attacking the cut in police numbers. This could have a huge impact depending on who sees it.
The bottom line is that the Tories are obsessed with negative campaigning and think that banging on about Corbyn will guarantee them victory (because that is of course why they called the election in the first place), whereas the average man or woman in the street wants to know why, since the Tories have troubled us with this unnecessary election, the Conservative programme for government over the next five years should actually merit our support?
Very true , the Conservatives have nothing to campaign positively on , the Strong and Stable message having been replaced by Weak and Wobbly .
And I suppose people banging on about the Tories stealing your house is positive campaigning?
In my opinion, going hard on the garden tax would be a huge error as the come back would be, 'people can't get a house under the Tories and not a hope of a house with a garden'. it would play very badly with the 'just about managing'.
There is a video doing the rounds which has been produced by some policemen, it is strongly attacking the cut in police numbers. This could have a huge impact depending on who sees it.
The bottom line is that the Tories are obsessed with negative campaigning and think that banging on about Corbyn will guarantee them victory (because that is of course why they called the election in the first place), whereas the average man or woman in the street wants to know why, since the Tories have troubled us with this unnecessary election, the Conservative programme for government over the next five years should actually merit our support?
Very true , the Conservatives have nothing to campaign positively on , the Strong and Stable message having been replaced by Weak and Wobbly .
And I suppose people banging on about the Tories stealing your house is positive campaigning?
But you are missing the point.
The government had three years more to run, but called a surprise election.
People think, OK, so tell us why you need our support again so soon?
The government says the election is about Brexit but, after a month of campaigning, we are no wiser about their Brexit plan than before. Nor will they tell us very much about their plans for the next five years, and most of the top dogs in the Tory party spend the campaign trying to keep a low profile.
I expect a Tory majority of around 100, could be 150 with terrorism attack but after todays lunch, I really think we could be underestimating the young vote.
3 people all voting labour (green, lib dem, didn't vote). One who didn't vote last time has 2 sisters (voted to leave and are voting labour first time.
Youth vote is engaged and despite living with parents are voting. Do children living at home get canvassed?
So 2/3 voted last time and are just shifting from minor centre left parties to Labour, a boost for Corbyn certainly but hardly a youth surge. Yes, children at home get canvassed if they are on the register
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
LOL. So we should trust the other polls with "dubious unproven methodologies"?
Nope you don't trust any specific poll but look at them as a whole make a judgement and certainly do not believe an extreme outlier .
But its not an extreme outlier is it.
It just a poll which gives a result you don't like.
It is the poll with the highest Conservative lead , by definition it is an extreme outlier just as at the other extreme is Survation with its 1% lead .
Yet in 2015 the Conservative lead was larger than what all the extreme outliers had predicted for months.
And I wouldn't describe it as extreme either - its within the MOE of several other polls.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
LOL. So we should trust the other polls with "dubious unproven methodologies"?
Nope you don't trust any specific poll but look at them as a whole make a judgement and certainly do not believe an extreme outlier .
But its not an extreme outlier is it.
It just a poll which gives a result you don't like.
It is the poll with the highest Conservative lead , by definition it is an extreme outlier just as at the other extreme is Survation with its 1% lead .
Since the Manchester bombing of the 24 polls, 8 have been double digit leads, 16 have been single digit leads - ranging from 15% to 1%. Two polls in the past couple of days have had double digit leads - so claiming one of them is an 'outlier' smacks of wishful thinking.....
I expect a Tory majority of around 100, could be 150 with terrorism attack but after todays lunch, I really think we could be underestimating the young vote.
3 people all voting labour (green, lib dem, didn't vote). One who didn't vote last time has 2 sisters (voted to leave and are voting labour first time.
Youth vote is engaged and despite living with parents are voting. Do children living at home get canvassed?
They don't normally, and it is hard to canvass in flats and halls of residence.
In my opinion, going hard on the garden tax would be a huge error as the come back would be, 'people can't get a house under the Tories and not a hope of a house with a garden'. it would play very badly with the 'just about managing'.
There is a video doing the rounds which has been produced by some policemen, it is strongly attacking the cut in police numbers. This could have a huge impact depending on who sees it.
The bottom line is that the Tories are obsessed with negative campaigning and think that banging on about Corbyn will guarantee them victory (because that is of course why they called the election in the first place), whereas the average man or woman in the street wants to know why, since the Tories have troubled us with this unnecessary election, the Conservative programme for government over the next five years should actually merit our support?
Very true , the Conservatives have nothing to campaign positively on , the Strong and Stable message having been replaced by Weak and Wobbly .
Yes they do, who do you trust with Brexit and national security, May or Corbyn, for one
The parallels between May and Brown seem to grow clearer by the day. She used her Home Office fiefdom to further her ambitions to take over a job that she wasn't cut out for.
In my opinion, going hard on the garden tax would be a huge error as the come back would be, 'people can't get a house under the Tories and not a hope of a house with a garden'. it would play very badly with the 'just about managing'.
There is a video doing the rounds which has been produced by some policemen, it is strongly attacking the cut in police numbers. This could have a huge impact depending on who sees it.
The bottom line is that the Tories are obsessed with negative campaigning and think that banging on about Corbyn will guarantee them victory (because that is of course why they called the election in the first place), whereas the average man or woman in the street wants to know why, since the Tories have troubled us with this unnecessary election, the Conservative programme for government over the next five years should actually merit our support?
Very true , the Conservatives have nothing to campaign positively on , the Strong and Stable message having been replaced by Weak and Wobbly .
Yes they do, who do you trust with Brexit and national security, May or Corbyn, for one
so, fellow PBers , following the awful events of the last 24 hours , what is the consensus on how this will affect the result on Thursday? Will the tories cement their vote now and cause the waverers to return to nanny or will they blame it on government policy and flock to jezzbolah ?
The parallels between May and Brown seem to grow clearer by the day. She used her Home Office fiefdom to further her ambitions to take over a job that she wasn't cut out for.
Brown may well have won the 2007 election which was pre crash and almost certainly if he was not facing Cameron, we are anyway only in the equivalent of 2004 in the New Labour years ie 7 years after the Tories were first elected and in 2005 Labour got a majority of 66
I expect a Tory majority of around 100, could be 150 with terrorism attack but after todays lunch, I really think we could be underestimating the young vote.
3 people all voting labour (green, lib dem, didn't vote). One who didn't vote last time has 2 sisters (voted to leave and are voting labour first time.
Youth vote is engaged and despite living with parents are voting. Do children living at home get canvassed?
They don't normally, and it is hard to canvass in flats and halls of residence.
One of the young ones said he voted and his parents were like "you voted? Who did you vote for? I voted for labour (smiled), dad - what's wrong with you? Mum - he will learn
We will see but from phoning I would be more worried about the Tories losing ultra Remain Oxford West and Abingdon than failing to gain Leave Chorley
Living in OxWAb as I do, it is hard to get a real sense of how the land lies. If you judge by my Facebook feed, the LDs are picking up lots of disaffected/tactical Labour votes. But I don't put any store by what I read on there.
The LDs have been bombarding people with fake news based election literature. I got 4 personal letters from them in 1 week - even though they have never canvassed me and have had no contact to suggest I was a likely LD voter. My housemates didn't receive anything in that period. It was getting ridiculous and so I demanded that they remove me from their lists - after which point, my housemates started getting all the mail!
I know Abingdon saw LD gains in the County elections and they have been trying to extrapolate that into a LD victory - but I don't believe it.
Layla Moran has not had any presence in the constituency since she lost 2 years ago - whereas Blackwood has been regular in her communication.
I think there will be a swing to the LDs (one of the few places in the country where that is going to happen) but I can't see it being enough to overturn a 10K majority.
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
What are you drooling on about? HYUFD quoted a poll that had the Tories 12% ahead nationally but he thought the party would lose those two seats. I simply asked why he believed that.
Based on my calculations from that poll and accounting for regional swings I have the Tories with a majority of 86 but it is possible that the Tories could get a majority that high and still lose seats in Bristol and Brighton which both voted Remain and which both have universities and lots of young people and which are also pretty pro Corbyn is it not?
You may be right of course, though personally I feel the Brexit-Remainer divide is grossly exaggerated. Put it this way: if the Tory lead does prove to be above 10% on the day, both seats will be held.
I reckon there are at most about five seats in the whole country which may end up being affected by the referendum result. (And in at least one of those, Heathrow expansion is likely to be a bigger issue than Brexit.)
so, fellow PBers , following the awful events of the last 24 hours , what is the consensus on how this will affect the result on Thursday? Will the tories cement their vote now and cause the waverers to return to nanny or will they blame it on government policy and flock to jezzbolah ?
I suspect it'll only have a small/very small effect.
One of the young ones said he voted and his parents were like "you voted? Who did you vote for? I voted for labour (smiled), dad - what's wrong with you? Mum - he will learn
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .
One of the young ones said he voted and his parents were like "you voted? Who did you vote for? I voted for labour (smiled), dad - what's wrong with you? Mum - he will learn
so, fellow PBers , following the awful events of the last 24 hours , what is the consensus on how this will affect the result on Thursday? Will the tories cement their vote now and cause the waverers to return to nanny or will they blame it on government policy and flock to jezzbolah ?
I suspect it'll only have a small/very small effect.
We will never know...given the polls are all over the place.
Comments
They do turn up, and they are way younger and fitter than Tory leafletteers in rural Cumbria.
Here is the delightful Liz Kendall briefing them for Beaumont Leys (a large mostly WWC council estate in Lei W)
https://twitter.com/SpiritofJD/status/870928343453007872
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/prq13gslk4/FINALCALL_GB_May2015_WedPM_W.pdf
Terrorism
1) Teresa may has to end the relationship with Saudi Arabia. UK cannot allow any funding from them.
2)
Why people won't vote for corbyn
1) rise in taxes for rich. Rich people pass the cost onto you and you will end paying.
2) nationalisation isn't the right policy. Railways it may work but royal mail no.
3) NHS is finished. Costs the NHS\taxpayer £500 for every cancellation. Can't keeps pending money.
Why people won't vote for may.
1) She has no charisma or personality like Boris and she's so depressing to listen to.
2) She is a remained but using credit for political gain. She needs to go for a true remainer who understand why brexit is good and the benefits it brings.
3) She was a crap home secretary. Cut police numbers and immigration went up every year. Immigration will always rise under may as rich employers want cheap labour and police with!! Be cut to fund tax cuts for rich.
Who people voting for 2015
Conservative - 7
Labour - 0
Lib dem - 1
Green - 1
Ukip - 3
Didn't vote - 3
EU referendum
Remain - 3
Leave - 10
Didn't vote - 2.
2017 expected vote
Conservative - 8
Labour - 5
Lib dem - 0
Green - 0
Ukip - 0
Undecided - 1
Won't vote - 1
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
last week of the campaign and we're not discussing swing back
Corbyn is a lunatic.
The same with his not retaliating in the case of a nuclear strike. My view is if someone attacks us we hit them back. Corbyn seems to advocate that it is alright for people to kill British people but it is not alright to kill armies that want to defeat the British state.
There is a video doing the rounds which has been produced by some policemen, it is strongly attacking the cut in police numbers. This could have a huge impact depending on who sees it.
As for police numbers, the terrorists were killed very swiftly but only through the 'shoot to kill' policy Corbyn is not fully signed up to
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
- Survation is wrong to assume that every middle aged person who refuses to give an opinion, or is undecided, won't vote, and that every single young person who says they intend to vote next Thursday actually will;
- ICM and ComRes are wrong to assume that young voters' turnout won't increase (relative to older voters) from 2015, when Corbyn has clearly enthused young people during this campaign far more than Mr Bacon Sandwich ever achieved;
these respective polling companies appear to be blind to these self-evident conclusions?
I'll get my coat.
Young ones talking about social media, how they don't want a hard brexit and lack of opportunities of changing careers or getting a nice house
It just a poll which gives a result you don't like.
I think that is the election in a nutshell.
https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/871404856917069824
3 people all voting labour (green, lib dem, didn't vote). One who didn't vote last time has 2 sisters (voted to leave and are voting labour first time.
Youth vote is engaged and despite living with parents are voting. Do children living at home get canvassed?
Oh No they're not
The government had three years more to run, but called a surprise election.
People think, OK, so tell us why you need our support again so soon?
The government says the election is about Brexit but, after a month of campaigning, we are no wiser about their Brexit plan than before. Nor will they tell us very much about their plans for the next five years, and most of the top dogs in the Tory party spend the campaign trying to keep a low profile.
Who can blame many voters for thinking, "wtf?"
And I wouldn't describe it as extreme either - its within the MOE of several other polls.
The LDs have been bombarding people with fake news based election literature. I got 4 personal letters from them in 1 week - even though they have never canvassed me and have had no contact to suggest I was a likely LD voter. My housemates didn't receive anything in that period. It was getting ridiculous and so I demanded that they remove me from their lists - after which point, my housemates started getting all the mail!
I know Abingdon saw LD gains in the County elections and they have been trying to extrapolate that into a LD victory - but I don't believe it.
Layla Moran has not had any presence in the constituency since she lost 2 years ago - whereas Blackwood has been regular in her communication.
I think there will be a swing to the LDs (one of the few places in the country where that is going to happen) but I can't see it being enough to overturn a 10K majority.
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.