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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW Bonus PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reviewing the weekend’s

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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,319
    I doubt what Corbyn (or anyone else) says now is going to make any difference.

    The entire news agenda is still dominated by the aftermath of the attacks and then there is also the Manchester concert.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    JohnO said:

    Chameleon said:

    I really can't vote for any of the major parties in good conscience, and it's made me quite sad that my priorities are clearly so detached from those in the political sphere.

    You're a pretty poor chameleon in that case!
    Haha indeed!
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Chameleon said:

    I really can't vote for any of the major parties in good conscience, and it's made me quite sad that my priorities are clearly so detached from those in the political sphere.

    Wasn't your priority to de facto default on your debt obligations by working overseas in the expectation that Corbyn would write them off and you could return return bearing gold?
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    calum said:
    No doubt he said the same thing about funding the IRA ......


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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,515
    Pulpstar said:

    Cookie said:

    The 'play co-ordinator, reading through the dos and don'ts - to a bunch of 5-10 year olds - concluded with reading out the last line on her big sign - don't vote Tory or UKIP. I thought they were overstepping the mark a bit there, but was told it was just the same as last year - this isn't open to Tory voters.

    You're making that up aren't you ?
    Surely ?
    No, seriously. It was a subcontractor to the festival, obviously, rather than the festival itself - an outfit called Monkey-Do - but it still stuck in the craw rather. I'd already taken against her because she'd made a joke which was basically 'aren't Americans fat?' Again, to a group of 5-10 year olds.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited June 2017

    A little bit old but I've just noticed it:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 5h5 hours ago
    Our Nowcast for 04 June:

    Con: 354 (+24)
    Lab: 214 (-18)
    SNP: 47 (-9)
    LDem: 12 (+4)

    Looks like a bit of a mixed bag if correct, something, but not much, for everyone.
    Probably not enough to cause anyone to resign.

    Their map is interesting, and quite positive for LDs. North Nofolk for example 13.5% chance Con gain.

    A few seats there with decent odds.

    http://britainelects.com/nowcast/
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    edited June 2017
    matt said:

    Chameleon said:

    I really can't vote for any of the major parties in good conscience, and it's made me quite sad that my priorities are clearly so detached from those in the political sphere.

    Wasn't your priority to de facto default on your debt obligations by working overseas in the expectation that Corbyn would write them off and you could return return bearing gold?
    Nah, I said that if Corbyn got in then I would look forward to not being £50k in debt over the next 2/3 years because of the abolition of tuition fees.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Remember Cleggasm?

    Enthusiasm which showed in media and polling but not at the ballot box.

    Do we now have Corbynasm?
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    TudorRose said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?

    How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?

    Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.

    Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.
    I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.
    Are 70% even registered ?

    It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
    Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.
    Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?

    Worked out well then didn't it?
    I've encountered ukip voters voting for corbyn and also lib dem voters in 2010 voted Tory 2015 remain and now corbyn.
    Does everyone you meet tell you how they voted two years ago and how they're planning to vote now? I'm quite political but I have no idea how most of my colleagues will vote - and I'm certainly not going to ruin my relationship with them by asking.
    My work place sent an email to all staff telling us to vote remain. I voted leave.

    It's the way phrase questions, how you say it and the environment you do it in. You can get a lot out of people!e without them knowing. Sales\recruitment jobs teach you terrible butnuseful things.
    Really? Fucking cheek of it. A company TELLING its employees how to vote? I'd be tempted to vote the other way, no matter the cause, just because.
    What would you think if a defence industry company told its employees to vote Tory because Labour planned to ban their exports? Would that be fair or not fair?
    They could send out, at most, an email explaining how the management believes a Tory government would be better for the company, but it should be heavily caveatted with "your vote is your vote, you must make your own decision, we are merely giving you our opinion, which may be wrong" etc etc
    Yes, voting is very subjective though isn't it.
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,721
    Interesting. Just typed in Bootle Lib Dems into Google. Top hit (an ad) is for the Conservatives: "Thinking of voting Lib Dem? You could be putting Corbyn into No. 10. Don't risk it."
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