Turnout at the Scottish independence referendum was a massive 84%. What was youth turnout like then? Because turnout this time probably won't be more than 70% and so it's unlikely youth turnout will be as high as it was in Scotland in 2014.
The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
I have a slightly awkward situation online. The editor of my thrillers - very smart, likeable, and a huge supporter of my work when it needs it - has suddenly become a raging Corbynite on Twitter. Posting the most bat-shit memes and doo-lally bollocks. So I am having to mute her tweets or avoid them, lest we have a terrible argument which ruins my career....
More importantly, tho, is the mere fact she's buying it. She is middle aged, super bright, not a wide eyed naif.
I really think it is a semi-religious thing: once people are converted to Corbynism no evidence will ever budge them, and Corbyn is converting millions. Not particularly through his policies - though they like the hopey, changey, no-tuition-fee stuff - but just by being so unexpected and different. And apparently "authentic". By being *him*.
This says to me that Labour are deluded if they think they could win on these leftwing policies with "a better leader". Corbyn IS the best leader. The best man to present this crazy shit.
So Nick Palmer had a point, when many of us - me included - derided him. The bad news for Nick is that, if they lose next week, that's it. There isn't another, better, younger, saner Corbyn ready to take over. And he's 68.
Its definitely a cult.
Under pressure from colleagues on Just a Minute, Kenneth Williams occasionally used to shriek in protest, 'I'm a cult! A cult, I tell you!'
Corbynites are the mirror image of Trump supporters. There's a similar cause for this popular uprising (wages, immigration, housing etc.) and both sides are picking an absolute berk with lunatic policies to deliver the change they crave. The only difference is one is on the left and the other on the right.
Turnout at the Scottish independence referendum was a massive 84%. What was youth turnout like then? Because turnout this time probably won't be more than 70% and so it's unlikely youth turnout will be as high as it was in Scotland in 2014.
That interview was not Corbyn condemning all shoot to kill and Kuennsberg got a wrap over the knuckles by the BBC trust for misrepresenting him here
From what I remember wasn't it something to with Northern Ireland? I seem to remember thinking that it showed that Corbyn was totally out of touch that he misinterpreted the question which was clearly in relation to the attacks in Paris.
That interview was not Corbyn condemning all shoot to kill and Kuennsberg got a wrap over the knuckles by the BBC trust for misrepresenting him here
It wasn't far off it; he says how lovely it would be if we prevented a situation where you had to make the decision, from ever arising. Completely sidesteps the q.
Turnout at the Scottish independence referendum was a massive 84%. What was youth turnout like then? Because turnout this time probably won't be more than 70% and so it's unlikely youth turnout will be as high as it was in Scotland in 2014.
What to do? I normally stay up all night for GE, but next day I have a 20 hour journey to far flung places for my annual high altitude climbing adrenaline fix. Usually UNS has it sorted by 2.30am, but this year, who knows. I will miss the post mortem, and the wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Can you get internet acces on your flight?
I normally don't get any sleep before an exciting journey anyway.
I normally submit to the pleasure of a few swift Gin and tonics, definitely the wrong solution, but at least I sleep. Once I start on the trip, politics is over until I return, I want to enjoy the pleasure and pain of the activity. Also no further drinking, and at least half a stone weight loss.
Corbynites are the mirror image of Trump supporters. There's a similar cause for this popular uprising (wages, immigration, housing etc.) and both sides are picking an absolute berk with lunatic policies to deliver the change they crave. The only difference is one is on the left and the other on the right.
Corbynites are the mirror image of Trump supporters. There's a similar cause for this popular uprising (wages, immigration, housing etc.) and both sides are picking an absolute berk with lunatic policies to deliver the change they crave. The only difference is one is on the left and the other on the right.
However, one attracted the mid-aged blue collar workers and rural dwellers, the other is attracting the young / students often living in cities.
What to do? I normally stay up all night for GE, but next day I have a 20 hour journey to far flung places for my annual high altitude climbing adrenaline fix. Usually UNS has it sorted by 2.30am, but this year, who knows. I will miss the post mortem, and the wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Can you get internet acces on your flight?
I normally don't get any sleep before an exciting journey anyway.
I normally submit to the pleasure of a few swift Gin and tonics, definitely the wrong solution, but at least I sleep. Once I start on the trip, politics is over until I return, I want to enjoy the pleasure and pain of the activity. Also no further drinking, and at least half a stone weight loss.
Perhaps we can arrange for the captain to announce the results as the flight progresses.
The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
I have a slightly awkward situation online. The editor of my thrillers - very smart, likeable, and a huge supporter of my work when it needs it - has suddenly become a raging Corbynite on Twitter. Posting the most bat-shit memes and doo-lally bollocks. So I am having to mute her tweets or avoid them, lest we have a terrible argument which ruins my career....
More importantly, tho, is the mere fact she's buying it. She is middle aged, super bright, not a wide eyed naif.
I really think it is a semi-religious thing: once people are converted to Corbynism no evidence will ever budge them, and Corbyn is converting millions. Not particularly through his policies - though they like the hopey, changey, no-tuition-fee stuff - but just by being so unexpected and different. And apparently "authentic". By being *him*.
This says to me that Labour are deluded if they think they could win on these leftwing policies with "a better leader". Corbyn IS the best leader. The best man to present this crazy shit.
So Nick Palmer had a point, when many of us - me included - derided him. The bad news for Nick is that, if they lose next week, that's it. There isn't another, better, younger, saner Corbyn ready to take over. And he's 68.
Its definitely a cult.
Under pressure from colleagues on Just a Minute, Kenneth Williams occasionally used to shriek in protest, 'I'm a cult! A cult, I tell you!'
YouGov poll today said more people would be "delighted" with a Labour majority government (31%) than said they would be "delighted" with a Tory majority government (27%).
Admittedly the gap is made up by more people saying they "wouldn't mind" a Tory majority (with 3% more people saying they would be "dismayed" by a Labour majority than a Tory majority), but even so this doesn't say much for Tory enthusiasm.
YouGov poll today said more people would be "delighted" with a Labour majority government (31%) than said they would be "delighted" with a Tory majority government (27%).
Tories are less passionate. They are the quiet and reserved types.
The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
I have a slightly awkward situation online. The editor of my thrillers - very smart, likeable, and a huge supporter of my work when it needs it - has suddenly become a raging Corbynite on Twitter. Posting the most bat-shit memes and doo-lally bollocks. So I am having to mute her tweets or avoid them, lest we have a terrible argument which ruins my career....
Generally I think one should avoid mixing friendships, family and business links with politics - there are 30 million people out there who will decide it, it doesn't matter if you agree with your girlfriend, editor or brother-in-law.
Sometimes they return the favour by overcoming their politics. My mum, a lifelong Tory, joined Chelsea Labour Party when I stood there - I'll never forget her in her ocelot jacket sitting in a seedy room above a pub where we had our branch meetings (they made her membership secretary). My largest donor in my 2005 and 2010 campign was a very old friend who always votes Tory or UKIP. In the same way, he felt it wasn't going to decide the national outcome, so why not help a mate? I expect your editor will get over your views too, just as we do (more or less )
Unforgiving friends of any variety are best dropped!
From my time among a few Corbynistas, one a recent convert (and who has even voted Tory in the distant pas!) and one longstanding Labour fan, they will dismiss any of this as lies. The police cuts line has swayed them completely.
YouGov poll today said more people would be "delighted" with a Labour majority government (31%) than said they would be "delighted" with a Tory majority government (27%).
Can anyone point me to a summary of the crime statistics over the past 15 years?
My recollection (which may be mistaken) is that crime has been falling year on year for some time (with certain crimes seeing different patterns)
But overall I thought that crime, on the whole, has been falling.
It has, but it isn't limited to the UK. Lots of western countries have seen similar falls.
Some even attribute it to the removal of lead in petrol, which is very interesting.
Contraception and more freely available abortion are other commonly attributed reasons. Of course it's almost impossible to say for certain without an alternate Earth to test this hypothesis.
Corbynites are the mirror image of Trump supporters. There's a similar cause for this popular uprising (wages, immigration, housing etc.) and both sides are picking an absolute berk with lunatic policies to deliver the change they crave. The only difference is one is on the left and the other on the right.
Truth.
I don't think Corbyn's appeal to UKIP voters can be underestimated. Many voted UKIP or Leave because it felt anti-establishment and insurgent. This time round it's Corbyn who fits that bill. Project Fear failed in the EU ref and, who knows, maybe it'll fail this time around too.
Though there has been a notable change in types of crime. Knife crime in London is up but the homicide rate is down. This may simply be better trauma care.
Can anyone point me to a summary of the crime statistics over the past 15 years?
My recollection (which may be mistaken) is that crime has been falling year on year for some time (with certain crimes seeing different patterns)
But overall I thought that crime, on the whole, has been falling.
It has, but it isn't limited to the UK. Lots of western countries have seen similar falls.
Some even attribute it to the removal of lead in petrol, which is very interesting.
Plus lots of stuff is not worth nicking any more: everyone either already has a dvd recorder or can get one from currys for £29.99, and lots of other stuff is too difficult to nick - modern cars with immobilisers - and cctv and dna testing further hamper the wannabe villain.
YouGov poll today said more people would be "delighted" with a Labour majority government (31%) than said they would be "delighted" with a Tory majority government (27%).
Admittedly the gap is made up by more people saying they "wouldn't mind" a Tory majority (with 3% more people saying they would be "dismayed" by a Labour majority than a Tory majority), but even so this doesn't say much for Tory enthusiasm.
YouGov poll today said more people would be "delighted" with a Labour majority government (31%) than said they would be "delighted" with a Tory majority government (27%).
YouGov is polling liars.
I am quite happy to take YouGov's money - but their methodology is deeply flawed.
Can anyone point me to a summary of the crime statistics over the past 15 years?
My recollection (which may be mistaken) is that crime has been falling year on year for some time (with certain crimes seeing different patterns)
But overall I thought that crime, on the whole, has been falling.
It has, but it isn't limited to the UK. Lots of western countries have seen similar falls.
Some even attribute it to the removal of lead in petrol, which is very interesting.
Plus lots of stuff is not worth nicking any more: everyone either already has a dvd recorder or can get one from currys for £29.99, and lots of other stuff is too difficult to nick - modern cars with immobilisers - and cctv and dna testing further hamper the wannabe villain.
To be honest I am surprised that hate crime hasn't surged
Corbynites are the mirror image of Trump supporters. There's a similar cause for this popular uprising (wages, immigration, housing etc.) and both sides are picking an absolute berk with lunatic policies to deliver the change they crave. The only difference is one is on the left and the other on the right.
Truth.
I don't think Corbyn's appeal to UKIP voters can be underestimated. Many voted UKIP or Leave because it felt anti-establishment and insurgent. This time round it's Corbyn who fits that bill. Project Fear failed in the EU ref and, who knows, maybe it'll fail this time around too.
20% of UKIP's voters last time round going to Labour, according to YouGov today.
The critical question is which seats that UKIP->Lab migration is happening; if it's in some of those crucial Northern and Midlands seats where Labour was looking vulnerable then it's very helpful to Lab, if it's in safe Tory seats then they're useless to Labour.
YouGov poll today said more people would be "delighted" with a Labour majority government (31%) than said they would be "delighted" with a Tory majority government (27%).
Admittedly the gap is made up by more people saying they "wouldn't mind" a Tory majority (with 3% more people saying they would be "dismayed" by a Labour majority than a Tory majority), but even so this doesn't say much for Tory enthusiasm.
Probably true and precisely sums up Labour's problems. Their support is deep but not wide enough.
That interview was not Corbyn condemning all shoot to kill and Kuennsberg got a wrap over the knuckles by the BBC trust for misrepresenting him here
Kuenssberg: If you were prime minister, would you be happy to order people - police or military - to shoot to kill on Britain's streets?
Corbyn: I am not happy with a shoot to kill policy in general. I think that is quite dangerous and I think can often be counter-productive.
The above are the actual quotes.
The BBC Trust, after 4 times rejecting complaints, upheld one because in the report Kuenssberg said she had asked Corbyn, "if he were the resident here at Number 10 whether or not he would be happy for British officers to pull the trigger in the event of a Paris-style attack". They said Kuennsberg should have given the actual question. Note that BBC News immediately issued a statement supporting Kuennsberg and noting that the Trust had said there was no evidence of bias and that Kuennsberg had compiled her report in good faith.
Spin as much as you want. Corbyn's words were clear. "I am not happy with a shoot to kill policy in general". Sounds very much like condemning all shoot to kill to me.
Though there has been a notable change in types of crime. Knife crime in London is up but the homicide rate is down. This may simply be better trauma care.
It is a complex subject, which I don't believe anybody has THE answer e.g. Freakonomics author famously showed that legalized abortion in the US had a statistically significant impact there.
I think there is an argument also for when we had this massive explosion of cheap china goods. What is the point of nicking something that is worth bugger all. Now we are seeing his uptick in phone muggings, because everybody carries around £500 worth of electronics in their pocket.
The BBC are naughty to keep that story up there unedited as the BBC Trust rapped them for it for inaccurate reporting. (They presented a clip of an earlier more general comment as a reply to a specific question on how Corbyn would deal with a Bataclan terrorist incident)
Corbynites are the mirror image of Trump supporters. There's a similar cause for this popular uprising (wages, immigration, housing etc.) and both sides are picking an absolute berk with lunatic policies to deliver the change they crave. The only difference is one is on the left and the other on the right.
However, one attracted the mid-aged blue collar workers and rural dwellers, the other is attracting the young / students often living in cities.
Not sure that's true about the alt-right, nor are all Corbynites young. I think both groups have more in common than either side would like to admit.
That interview was not Corbyn condemning all shoot to kill and Kuennsberg got a wrap over the knuckles by the BBC trust for misrepresenting him here
Kuenssberg: If you were prime minister, would you be happy to order people - police or military - to shoot to kill on Britain's streets?
Corbyn: I am not happy with a shoot to kill policy in general. I think that is quite dangerous and I think can often be counter-productive.
The above are the actual quotes.
The BBC Trust, after 4 times rejecting complaints, upheld one because in the report Kuenssberg said she had asked Corbyn, "if he were the resident here at Number 10 whether or not he would be happy for British officers to pull the trigger in the event of a Paris-style attack". They said Kuennsberg should have given the actual question. Note that BBC News immediately issued a statement supporting Kuennsberg and noting that the Trust had said there was no evidence of bias and that Kuennsberg had compiled her report in good faith.
Spin as much as you want. Corbyn's words were clear. "I am not happy with a shoot to kill policy in general". Sounds very much like condemning all shoot to kill to me.
I'm not happy with low-sodium soy sauce but I don't condemn it.
Also you can't go from a general principle to a specific instance.
The BBC are naughty to keep that story up there unedited as the BBC Trust rapped them for it for inaccurate reporting. (They presented a clip of an earlier more general comment as a reply to a specific question on how Corbyn would deal with a Bataclan terrorist incident)
@prh47bridge below says the potentially inaccurate bit was what Kuenssberg said when linking to the interview, not the interview itself.
Corbynites are the mirror image of Trump supporters. There's a similar cause for this popular uprising (wages, immigration, housing etc.) and both sides are picking an absolute berk with lunatic policies to deliver the change they crave. The only difference is one is on the left and the other on the right.
However, one attracted the mid-aged blue collar workers and rural dwellers, the other is attracting the young / students often living in cities.
Not sure that's true about the alt-right, nor are all Corbynites young. I think both groups have more in common than either side would like to admit.
Well both seem to have attracted followers who aren't very keen on Jews....
The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
I have a slightly awkward situation online. The editor of my thrillers - very smart, likeable, and a huge supporter of my work when it needs it - has suddenly become a raging Corbynite on Twitter. Posting the most bat-shit memes and doo-lally bollocks. So I am having to mute her tweets or avoid them, lest we have a terrible argument which ruins my career....
More importantly, tho, is the mere fact she's buying it. She is middle aged, super bright, not a wide eyed naif.
I really think it is a semi-religious thing: once people are converted to Corbynism no evidence will ever budge them, and Corbyn is converting millions. Not particularly through his policies - though they like the hopey, changey, no-tuition-fee stuff - but just by being so unexpected and different. And apparently "authentic". By being *him*.
This says to me that Labour are deluded if they think they could win on these leftwing policies with "a better leader". Corbyn IS the best leader. The best man to present this crazy shit.
So Nick Palmer had a point, when many of us - me included - derided him. The bad news for Nick is that, if they lose next week, that's it. There isn't another, better, younger, saner Corbyn ready to take over. And he's 68.
As pb-ers reminded us during the QT leaders programme, Corbyn has been doing this all his adult life. While May and so many other modern politicians avoid being questioned and get caught out, Corbyn is a throwback -- like Kinnock or Foot or John Major with his soap box -- to an earlier age when politicians would mix it with the public in pursuit of often unfashionable causes. And now Corbyn's taken David Cameron's mum's advice and bought a suit, done his tie up and metaphorically sung the national anthem, he looks the part too.
Oh -- and any pb commenters who invariably scored PMQs as a KO for the PM -- well maybe they were just spinning.
YouGov poll today said more people would be "delighted" with a Labour majority government (31%) than said they would be "delighted" with a Tory majority government (27%).
Admittedly the gap is made up by more people saying they "wouldn't mind" a Tory majority (with 3% more people saying they would be "dismayed" by a Labour majority than a Tory majority), but even so this doesn't say much for Tory enthusiasm.
The whole point of the Conservative Party is to keep the likes of Jeremy Corbyn out of power! We don't have to like the Tories - that would be ridiculous - we vote for them because we're appalled by the other lot.
What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.
Are 70% even registered ?
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.
Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?
Worked out well then didn't it?
I've encountered ukip voters voting for corbyn and also lib dem voters in 2010 voted Tory 2015 remain and now corbyn.
Does everyone you meet tell you how they voted two years ago and how they're planning to vote now? I'm quite political but I have no idea how most of my colleagues will vote - and I'm certainly not going to ruin my relationship with them by asking.
My work place sent an email to all staff telling us to vote remain. I voted leave.
It's the way phrase questions, how you say it and the environment you do it in. You can get a lot out of people!e without them knowing. Sales\recruitment jobs teach you terrible butnuseful things.
Really? Fucking cheek of it. A company TELLING its employees how to vote? I'd be tempted to vote the other way, no matter the cause, just because.
Ron Dennis told McLaren employees to vote Remain. I'm sure that was counterproductive!
What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.
Are 70% even registered ?
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.
Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?
Worked out well then didn't it?
I've encountered ukip voters voting for corbyn and also lib dem voters in 2010 voted Tory 2015 remain and now corbyn.
Does everyone you meet tell you how they voted two years ago and how they're planning to vote now? I'm quite political but I have no idea how most of my colleagues will vote - and I'm certainly not going to ruin my relationship with them by asking.
My work place sent an email to all staff telling us to vote remain. I voted leave.
It's the way phrase questions, how you say it and the environment you do it in. You can get a lot out of people!e without them knowing. Sales\recruitment jobs teach you terrible butnuseful things.
Really? Fucking cheek of it. A company TELLING its employees how to vote? I'd be tempted to vote the other way, no matter the cause, just because.
Ron Dennis told McLaren employees to vote Remain. I'm sure that was counterproductive!
Surely it would have been much better to say something along the lines of "we think, on balance, staying in is right, but ultimately it is your decision".
What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.
Are 70% even registered ?
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.
Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?
Worked out well then didn't it?
I've encountered ukip voters voting for corbyn and also lib dem voters in 2010 voted Tory 2015 remain and now corbyn.
Does everyone you meet tell you how they voted two years ago and how they're planning to vote now? I'm quite political but I have no idea how most of my colleagues will vote - and I'm certainly not going to ruin my relationship with them by asking.
My work place sent an email to all staff telling us to vote remain. I voted leave.
It's the way phrase questions, how you say it and the environment you do it in. You can get a lot out of people!e without them knowing. Sales\recruitment jobs teach you terrible butnuseful things.
Really? Fucking cheek of it. A company TELLING its employees how to vote? I'd be tempted to vote the other way, no matter the cause, just because.
Ron Dennis told McLaren employees to vote Remain. I'm sure that was counterproductive!
Surely it would have been much better to say something along the lines of "we think, on balance, staying in is right, but ultimately it is your decision".
What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.
Are 70% even registered ?
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.
Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?
Worked out well then didn't it?
I've encountered ukip voters voting for corbyn and also lib dem voters in 2010 voted Tory 2015 remain and now corbyn.
Does everyone you meet tell you how they voted two years ago and how they're planning to vote now? I'm quite political but I have no idea how most of my colleagues will vote - and I'm certainly not going to ruin my relationship with them by asking.
My work place sent an email to all staff telling us to vote remain. I voted leave.
It's the way phrase questions, how you say it and the environment you do it in. You can get a lot out of people!e without them knowing. Sales\recruitment jobs teach you terrible butnuseful things.
Really? Fucking cheek of it. A company TELLING its employees how to vote? I'd be tempted to vote the other way, no matter the cause, just because.
Ron Dennis told McLaren employees to vote Remain. I'm sure that was counterproductive!
Surely it would have been much better to say something along the lines of "we think, on balance, staying in is right, but ultimately it is your decision".
I can't imagine Ron Dennis saying something like that!
YouGov poll today said more people would be "delighted" with a Labour majority government (31%) than said they would be "delighted" with a Tory majority government (27%).
Admittedly the gap is made up by more people saying they "wouldn't mind" a Tory majority (with 3% more people saying they would be "dismayed" by a Labour majority than a Tory majority), but even so this doesn't say much for Tory enthusiasm.
The whole point of the Conservative Party is to keep the likes of Jeremy Corbyn out of power! We don't have to like the Tories - that would be ridiculous - we vote for them because we're appalled by the other lot.
Precisely. Where I live (a small town in Cheshire) I have seen 3 labour posters all in decent sized houses, 2 lib dem and no Tory. I am absolutley certain that the voting will be Cons, Lib Dem, Labour in that order.
What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.
Are 70% even registered ?
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.
Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?
Worked out well then didn't it?
I've encountered ukip voters voting for corbyn and also lib dem voters in 2010 voted Tory 2015 remain and now corbyn.
Does everyone you meet tell you how they voted two years ago and how they're planning to vote now? I'm quite political but I have no idea how most of my colleagues will vote - and I'm certainly not going to ruin my relationship with them by asking.
My work place sent an email to all staff telling us to vote remain. I voted leave.
It's the way phrase questions, how you say it and the environment you do it in. You can get a lot out of people!e without them knowing. Sales\recruitment jobs teach you terrible butnuseful things.
Really? Fucking cheek of it. A company TELLING its employees how to vote? I'd be tempted to vote the other way, no matter the cause, just because.
While we're on about that sort of thing, I was at a children's festival last weekend (Geronimo, in Arley Hall, Cheshire- full of Cbeebies presenters and so forth). One of the things to go on was tree-climbing. The 'play co-ordinator', reading through the dos and don'ts - to a bunch of 5-10 year olds - concluded with reading out the last line on her big sign - don't vote Tory or UKIP. I thought they were overstepping the mark a bit there, but was told it was just the same as last year - this isn't open to Tory voters.
YouGov poll today said more people would be "delighted" with a Labour majority government (31%) than said they would be "delighted" with a Tory majority government (27%).
Admittedly the gap is made up by more people saying they "wouldn't mind" a Tory majority (with 3% more people saying they would be "dismayed" by a Labour majority than a Tory majority), but even so this doesn't say much for Tory enthusiasm.
The whole point of the Conservative Party is to keep the likes of Jeremy Corbyn out of power! We don't have to like the Tories - that would be ridiculous - we vote for them because we're appalled by the other lot.
Precisely. Where I live (a small town in Cheshire) I have seen 3 labour posters all in decent sized houses, 2 lib dem and no Tory. I am absolutley certain that the voting will be Cons, Lib Dem, Labour in that order.
And any Tory poster is likely to be defaced with "tory scum", so there isn't really much point anyway.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
tsk JohnO what is PB coming to ?
last week of the campaign and we're not discussing swing back
Ah, my fellow bogtrotter, it's now time for you to reveal whether on June 8th, the Brookie good lady, and the vast hoards of the Brookie babes are going to be permitted to cast their votes for Mrs May this time? Could we see the turnout in Stratford on Avon soar to stratospheric levels?
What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.
Are 70% even registered ?
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.
Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?
Worked out well then didn't it?
I've encountered ukip voters voting for corbyn and also lib dem voters in 2010 voted Tory 2015 remain and now corbyn.
Does everyone you meet tell you how they voted two years ago and how they're planning to vote now? I'm quite political but I have no idea how most of my colleagues will vote - and I'm certainly not going to ruin my relationship with them by asking.
My work place sent an email to all staff telling us to vote remain. I voted leave.
It's the way phrase questions, how you say it and the environment you do it in. You can get a lot out of people!e without them knowing. Sales\recruitment jobs teach you terrible butnuseful things.
Really? Fucking cheek of it. A company TELLING its employees how to vote? I'd be tempted to vote the other way, no matter the cause, just because.
While we're on about that sort of thing, I was at a children's festival last weekend (Geronimo, in Arley Hall, Cheshire- full of Cbeebies presenters and so forth). One of the things to go on was tree-climbing. The 'play co-ordinator, reading through the dos and don'ts - to a bunch of 5-10 year olds - concluded with reading out the last line on her big sign - don't vote Tory or UKIP. I thought they were overstepping the mark a bit there, but was told it was just the same as last year - this isn't open to Tory voters.
What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.
Are 70% even registered ?
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.
Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?
Worked out well then didn't it?
I've encountered ukip voters voting for corbyn and also lib dem voters in 2010 voted Tory 2015 remain and now corbyn.
Does everyone you meet tell you how they voted two years ago and how they're planning to vote now? I'm quite political but I have no idea how most of my colleagues will vote - and I'm certainly not going to ruin my relationship with them by asking.
My work place sent an email to all staff telling us to vote remain. I voted leave.
It's the way phrase questions, how you say it and the environment you do it in. You can get a lot out of people!e without them knowing. Sales\recruitment jobs teach you terrible butnuseful things.
Really? Fucking cheek of it. A company TELLING its employees how to vote? I'd be tempted to vote the other way, no matter the cause, just because.
While we're on about that sort of thing, I was at a children's festival last weekend (Geronimo, in Arley Hall, Cheshire- full of Cbeebies presenters and so forth). One of the things to go on was tree-climbing. The 'play co-ordinator, reading through the dos and don'ts - to a bunch of 5-10 year olds - concluded with reading out the last line on her big sign - don't vote Tory or UKIP. I thought they were overstepping the mark a bit there, but was told it was just the same as last year - this isn't open to Tory voters.
Really? Who do these people think they are?
Yes - detracted rather from the innocent-family-fun vibe.
Happy to see all these young people at this concert, showing they won't let the terrorists beat them. My cousin and her dad are there tonight with them.
The timing of Corbyn's speech just feels unpleasantly opportunistic.
He could have made it tomorrow morning - but not, he is making it this evening. At the same time as the concert and as a massive police operation is underway round the UK
Irrespective of the contents, it is the wrong time to be saying anything.
What to do? I normally stay up all night for GE, but next day I have a 20 hour journey to far flung places for my annual high altitude climbing adrenaline fix. Usually UNS has it sorted by 2.30am, but this year, who knows. I will miss the post mortem, and the wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some rallies
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for now
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop Auckland
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?
They are not 12% ahead
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
tsk JohnO what is PB coming to ?
last week of the campaign and we're not discussing swing back
Ah, my fellow bogtrotter, it's now time for you to reveal whether on June 8th, the Brookie good lady, and the vast hoards of the Brookie babes are going to be permitted to cast their votes for Mrs May this time? Could we see the turnout in Stratford on Avon soar to stratospheric levels?
The timing of Corbyn's speech just feels unpleasantly opportunistic.
He could have made it tomorrow morning - but not, he is making it this evening. At the same time as the concert and as a massive police operation is underway round the UK
Irrespective of the contents, it is the wrong time to be saying anything.
The 'play co-ordinator, reading through the dos and don'ts - to a bunch of 5-10 year olds - concluded with reading out the last line on her big sign - don't vote Tory or UKIP. I thought they were overstepping the mark a bit there, but was told it was just the same as last year - this isn't open to Tory voters.
The timing of Corbyn's speech just feels unpleasantly opportunistic.
He could have made it tomorrow morning - but not, he is making it this evening. At the same time as the concert and as a massive police operation is underway round the UK
Irrespective of the contents, it is the wrong time to be saying anything.
He's trying to shut down the whole shoot to kill thing and show he's serious about terrorism. His record speaks otherwise.
Well both seem to have attracted followers who aren't very keen on Jews....
Ha ha, but that's part of the conspiracist mindset which is common to these groups. Talk of Zionist plots, the Russians, false-flag operations, biased media cartels and more are part of the belief system of both groups. I suspect if you delved deep enough you find you really serious conspiracists within each group, probably banging on about shape-shifting lizard people, engines that run on water, and HAARP.
What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.
Are 70% even registered ?
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.
Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?
Worked out well then didn't it?
I've encountered ukip voters voting for corbyn and also lib dem voters in 2010 voted Tory 2015 remain and now corbyn.
Does everyone you meet tell you how they voted two years ago and how they're planning to vote now? I'm quite political but I have no idea how most of my colleagues will vote - and I'm certainly not going to ruin my relationship with them by asking.
My work place sent an email to all staff telling us to vote remain. I voted leave.
It's the way phrase questions, how you say it and the environment you do it in. You can get a lot out of people!e without them knowing. Sales\recruitment jobs teach you terrible butnuseful things.
Really? Fucking cheek of it. A company TELLING its employees how to vote? I'd be tempted to vote the other way, no matter the cause, just because.
What would you think if a defence industry company told its employees to vote Tory because Labour planned to ban their exports? Would that be fair or not fair?
What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.
Are 70% even registered ?
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.
Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?
Worked out well then didn't it?
I've encountered ukip voters voting for corbyn and also lib dem voters in 2010 voted Tory 2015 remain and now corbyn.
Does everyone you meet tell you how they voted two years ago and how they're planning to vote now? I'm quite political but I have no idea how most of my colleagues will vote - and I'm certainly not going to ruin my relationship with them by asking.
My work place sent an email to all staff telling us to vote remain. I voted leave.
It's the way phrase questions, how you say it and the environment you do it in. You can get a lot out of people!e without them knowing. Sales\recruitment jobs teach you terrible butnuseful things.
Really? Fucking cheek of it. A company TELLING its employees how to vote? I'd be tempted to vote the other way, no matter the cause, just because.
What would you think if a defence industry company told its employees to vote Tory because Labour planned to ban their exports? Would that be fair or not fair?
I don't think companies should be telling employees how to vote, or influencing how people vote. It's dangerous because it make be viewed as "you must vote this way, or we'll sack you".
The timing of Corbyn's speech just feels unpleasantly opportunistic.
He could have made it tomorrow morning - but not, he is making it this evening. At the same time as the concert and as a massive police operation is underway round the UK
Irrespective of the contents, it is the wrong time to be saying anything.
If you suspend your campaign for the day, you suspend it. You don't restart it early to try to gain some advantage.
The timing of Corbyn's speech just feels unpleasantly opportunistic.
He could have made it tomorrow morning - but not, he is making it this evening. At the same time as the concert and as a massive police operation is underway round the UK
Irrespective of the contents, it is the wrong time to be saying anything.
If you suspend your campaign for the day, you suspend it. You don't restart it early to try to gain some advantage.
I really can't vote for any of the major parties in good conscience, and it's made me quite sad that my priorities are clearly so detached from those in the political sphere.
What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.
Are 70% even registered ?
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.
Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?
Worked out well then didn't it?
I've encountered ukip voters voting for corbyn and also lib dem voters in 2010 voted Tory 2015 remain and now corbyn.
Does everyone you meet tell you how they voted two years ago and how they're planning to vote now? I'm quite political but I have no idea how most of my colleagues will vote - and I'm certainly not going to ruin my relationship with them by asking.
My work place sent an email to all staff telling us to vote remain. I voted leave.
It's the way phrase questions, how you say it and the environment you do it in. You can get a lot out of people!e without them knowing. Sales\recruitment jobs teach you terrible butnuseful things.
Really? Fucking cheek of it. A company TELLING its employees how to vote? I'd be tempted to vote the other way, no matter the cause, just because.
What would you think if a defence industry company told its employees to vote Tory because Labour planned to ban their exports? Would that be fair or not fair?
My company made clear that it was our decision but they made their preference clear.
OT, but we had one report from a Tory canvasser earlier today. Were there others (from either side) that I missed earlier in the day talking about Saturday canvassing?
The timing of Corbyn's speech just feels unpleasantly opportunistic.
He could have made it tomorrow morning - but not, he is making it this evening. At the same time as the concert and as a massive police operation is underway round the UK
Irrespective of the contents, it is the wrong time to be saying anything.
He's trying to shut down the whole shoot to kill thing and show he's serious about terrorism. His record speaks otherwise.
OT, but we had one report from a Tory canvasser earlier today. Were there others (from either side) that I missed earlier in the day talking about Saturday canvassing?
The timing of Corbyn's speech just feels unpleasantly opportunistic.
He could have made it tomorrow morning - but not, he is making it this evening. At the same time as the concert and as a massive police operation is underway round the UK
Irrespective of the contents, it is the wrong time to be saying anything.
He's trying to shut down the whole shoot to kill thing and show he's serious about terrorism. His record speaks otherwise.
Voters overwhelmingly trust May/Tories on the 'keeping britain safe' issue.
I really can't vote for any of the major parties in good conscience, and it's made me quite sad that my priorities are clearly so detached from those in the political sphere.
What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.
Are 70% even registered ?
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.
Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?
Worked out well then didn't it?
I've encountered ukip voters voting for corbyn and also lib dem voters in 2010 voted Tory 2015 remain and now corbyn.
Does everyone you meet tell you how they voted two years ago and how they're planning to vote now? I'm quite political but I have no idea how most of my colleagues will vote - and I'm certainly not going to ruin my relationship with them by asking.
My work place sent an email to all staff telling us to vote remain. I voted leave.
It's the way phrase questions, how you say it and the environment you do it in. You can get a lot out of people!e without them knowing. Sales\recruitment jobs teach you terrible butnuseful things.
Really? Fucking cheek of it. A company TELLING its employees how to vote? I'd be tempted to vote the other way, no matter the cause, just because.
What would you think if a defence industry company told its employees to vote Tory because Labour planned to ban their exports? Would that be fair or not fair?
It would be silly, because all parties would know that Len McCluskey would be having a quiet word or two about any such ban being introduced.
Is that a gotcha btw - has a company actually done this?
OT, but we had one report from a Tory canvasser earlier today. Were there others (from either side) that I missed earlier in the day talking about Saturday canvassing?
What did it say?
Ah, I might be thinking of Casino_Royale's comments which were yesterday. I recall him being bullish.
Hopefully, most people would have been watching the concert and not listening to Jeremy Corbyn's nauseating opportunistic speech.
I'm truly shocked at the ignorance about Jeremy Corbyn's past views and I desperately hope that we don't get another terrorist attack next week ,if he becomes PM, because a lot of people are going to find out pretty quickly his real views. He may get away with it for a while but eventually the penny will drop but it will be too late then, we have got him and Diane Abbott for five whole years.
Comments
Video
here
Corbyn is a cult.
Now it is really over.
My recollection (which may be mistaken) is that crime has been falling year on year for some time (with certain crimes seeing different patterns)
But overall I thought that crime, on the whole, has been falling.
And if crime is falling, then you need fewer officers to investigate it...
Admittedly the gap is made up by more people saying they "wouldn't mind" a Tory majority (with 3% more people saying they would be "dismayed" by a Labour majority than a Tory majority), but even so this doesn't say much for Tory enthusiasm.
Sometimes they return the favour by overcoming their politics. My mum, a lifelong Tory, joined Chelsea Labour Party when I stood there - I'll never forget her in her ocelot jacket sitting in a seedy room above a pub where we had our branch meetings (they made her membership secretary). My largest donor in my 2005 and 2010 campign was a very old friend who always votes Tory or UKIP. In the same way, he felt it wasn't going to decide the national outcome, so why not help a mate? I expect your editor will get over your views too, just as we do (more or less
Unforgiving friends of any variety are best dropped!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27067615
Though there has been a notable change in types of crime. Knife crime in London is up but the homicide rate is down. This may simply be better trauma care.
The critical question is which seats that UKIP->Lab migration is happening; if it's in some of those crucial Northern and Midlands seats where Labour was looking vulnerable then it's very helpful to Lab, if it's in safe Tory seats then they're useless to Labour.
Corbyn: I am not happy with a shoot to kill policy in general. I think that is quite dangerous and I think can often be counter-productive.
The above are the actual quotes.
The BBC Trust, after 4 times rejecting complaints, upheld one because in the report Kuenssberg said she had asked Corbyn, "if he were the resident here at Number 10 whether or not he would be happy for British officers to pull the trigger in the event of a Paris-style attack". They said Kuennsberg should have given the actual question. Note that BBC News immediately issued a statement supporting Kuennsberg and noting that the Trust had said there was no evidence of bias and that Kuennsberg had compiled her report in good faith.
Spin as much as you want. Corbyn's words were clear. "I am not happy with a shoot to kill policy in general". Sounds very much like condemning all shoot to kill to me.
I think there is an argument also for when we had this massive explosion of cheap china goods. What is the point of nicking something that is worth bugger all. Now we are seeing his uptick in phone muggings, because everybody carries around £500 worth of electronics in their pocket.
Also you can't go from a general principle to a specific instance.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/shortcuts/2017/jun/04/plot-corbyn-allotment-politics-labour-leader-clues#img-1
Oh -- and any pb commenters who invariably scored PMQs as a KO for the PM -- well maybe they were just spinning.
I can't see anything on it.
He could have made it tomorrow morning - but not, he is making it this evening. At the same time as the concert and as a massive police operation is underway round the UK
Irrespective of the contents, it is the wrong time to be saying anything.
Surely ?
Grubby
It was counter productive from people I spoke to
Britain Elects @britainelects 5h5 hours ago
Our Nowcast for 04 June:
Con: 354 (+24)
Lab: 214 (-18)
SNP: 47 (-9)
LDem: 12 (+4)
Looks like a bit of a mixed bag if correct, something, but not much, for everyone.
Probably not enough to cause anyone to resign.
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/yougov-contradicts-survation-by.html#comment-form
NEW THREAD
Is that a gotcha btw - has a company actually done this?
I'm truly shocked at the ignorance about Jeremy Corbyn's past views and I desperately hope that we don't get another terrorist attack next week ,if he becomes PM, because a lot of people are going to find out pretty quickly his real views. He may get away with it for a while but eventually the penny will drop but it will be too late then, we have got him and Diane Abbott for five whole years.