I don't follow why Tory supporters are fretting. The latest OR poll with a 6% Tory lead (same as in GE 2015) and Con 43%/Lab 37% extrapolates to approximately a 50 seat Tory majority and no increase in Lab seat numbers. Corbyn would survive, at last for a while, but it would be the end for UKIP and the LDs.
Gap had closed significantly, Corbyn's leadership ratings have improved a lot and the Conservative campaign and manifesto itself has been very poor.
I still think a majority is on, but instead of 100 plus you could be looking at something in the 50's. It should never have been that close.
Speaking of gaming the odious FPTP system, it's a shame we can't start a scheme to move voter registrations from safe seats to marginals. It's technically illegal, but candidates get away with something similar, pretending they live in constituencies when they don't... (Reminds me there's been a small kerfuffle in Beeston regarding Soubry's residential status.)
There already is such gaming of the system . It is called holiday homes .
And overseas voters who can choose in which constituency to vote.
Isn't your vote in the last constituency you were registered to vote in as a UK resident?
Yes. I voted last week in the Lewisham west seat where i used to live.
I am going to be fascinated to hear what Crosby and Messina have been up to for the past month.
The fact that Crosby has been quoted off the record to the media a few weeks ago tells you that he's not happy how things are going.
He never briefed against Dave. If you read the 2015 book by Tim Ross, you can tell Cameron and his team listened to what Crosby said and then did it.
The thing that is confusing to me is that is is all silent since then. Not just from Crosby, but really the Tories. They haven't run a campaign, they have run a "let Jezza spout whatever he wants and we won't attack it".
What makes this campaign by Mrs May so bad is that she had the advantage in calling the snap election, you would have thought the manifesto had been focused group/message tested.
Maybe she really did just decide to have the election while up a mountain in Wales the weekend before she announced it and honestly hadn't done any preparation?
I had the same feeling watching Corbyn last night and reading the reactions on here to how I felt watching Trump in the Republican primaries. His so-called fatal gaffes just won't damage him in the way people expect.
Corbyn is Sanders not Trump, he has secured his leadership by preventing a Tory landslide so ironically while he will still probably lose his better than expected campaign means Labour moderates won't be able to get rid of him and he will likely lead Labour through to 2022 too
I hate the comparison with Sanders...but Sanders isn't a terrorist sympathizer who has built a team of marxists, anti-semites and holocaust deniers.
Sanders ran on the same anti corporation, anti rich platform as Corbyn and while not as pacificist as Corbyn was vocally anti the Iraq War, no surprise Sanders endorsed Corbyn today
But aren't these kids all bunched into a set of constituencies, mainly university towns? The 65+ age group are surely more sprinkled around?
No - frighteningly there are 18-24 year-olds everywhere. Generally people only spend 3 years at university, and more than half of them don't go to at all. As for university towns, they aren't what they were. There are now 130 universities in the UK.
Tories should indeed be frightened
Having been a grumpy git for years regarding the Facebooky phone-pickers called "young people", I will be OVERJOYED if this demographic gets off its butt and delivers the country the best PM we will have had since Clement Attlee.
Thirty years ago, Jeremy Corbyn was wrong about Northern Ireland. Other failings of the Labour manifesto - such as doing little to reverse Tory trade union laws, not promising to raise inheritance tax and income tax for the rich as high as we might wish, backing a replacement for Trident, not clearly denouncing the existence of the fascist regime called Israel, and not attacking the private schools in any other way than making them charge VAT - can be put down to the compromises Corbyn has had to make with scumbags to get where he is. If politics is the art of compromise, he has performed superbly. If he is obliged to make a deal with Nicola Sturgeon, and perhaps also with Tim Farron, to form a government, I have full confidence that he will. His competence leaves thug-liar-buffoons like Boris Johnson, mere buffoons like Michael Fallon, and empty sloganeers like Theresa May, completely in the shade. Want a good "deal" with EU27? Corbyn is our man.
This is why the Tories hate his guts. James Callagan, John Smith, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Margaret Beckett, Ed Miliband - none received anything like this amount of hatred. Not even Neil Kinnock did, at the height of the Ice Maiden's reign of terror. Harold Wilson was hated, but behind the hatred for him was the visceral and secular Tory hate for British men who dig coal out of the ground. Michael Foot was hated for his principles, but as a past president of the Oxford Union not on the same level as Jeremy Corbyn. Denis Healey promised to tax the rich "until the pips squeak", but he didn't really mean it and deep down the rich knew it.
The Tories f***ed up with Brexit, they f***ed up with calling this election, their cabinet has the putrid smell that John Major's cabinet had before the 1997 election...and I remain optimistic.
Hole the Tory campaign with a couple of big propaganda hits (white, grey, black, whatever works) between now and Tuesday - or even a single enormous one - and we've won.
I had the same feeling watching Corbyn last night and reading the reactions on here to how I felt watching Trump in the Republican primaries. His so-called fatal gaffes just won't damage him in the way people expect.
Corbyn is Sanders not Trump, he has secured his leadership by preventing a Tory landslide so ironically while he will still probably lose his better than expected campaign means Labour moderates won't be able to get rid of him and he will likely lead Labour through to 2022 too
I hate the comparison with Sanders...Sanders isn't a terrorist sympathizer who has built a team of marxists, anti-semites and holocaust deniers.
I am going to be fascinated to hear what Crosby and Messina have been up to for the past month.
The fact that Crosby has been quoted off the record to the media a few weeks ago tells you that he's not happy how things are going.
He never briefed against Dave. If you read the 2015 book by Tim Ross, you can tell Cameron and his team listened to what Crosby said and then did it.
The thing that is confusing to me is that is is all silent since then. Not just from Crosby, but really the Tories. They haven't run a campaign, they have run a "let Jezza spout whatever he wants and we won't attack it".
What makes this campaign by Mrs May so bad is that she had the advantage in calling the snap election, you would have thought the manifesto had been focused group/message tested.
Whilst Labour and all the other parties would have struggled.
This is what is just weird about the whole thing. Other than the social care stuff, which they quickly rowed back on, they haven't changed tack or attacked Labour properly at all. There hasn't really been a campaign at all.
Here's a theory.
Sir Lynton's crap, cf the 2005 general election campaign and Zac Goldsmith's Mayoral campaign.
Winning the 2015 GE was down purely to Dave and George.
What about Boris 2008 and 2012?
He was up against Ken and magic was fading from Ken.
Plus 2008 was a vote against the government of Gordon Brown.
2012 I'm not so sure, perhaps it was seen as a vote for Dave
I am going to be fascinated to hear what Crosby and Messina have been up to for the past month.
The fact that Crosby has been quoted off the record to the media a few weeks ago tells you that he's not happy how things are going.
He never briefed against Dave. If you read the 2015 book by Tim Ross, you can tell Cameron and his team listened to what Crosby said and then did it.
The thing that is confusing to me is that is is all silent since then. Not just from Crosby, but really the Tories. They haven't run a campaign, they have run a "let Jezza spout whatever he wants and we won't attack it".
What makes this campaign by Mrs May so bad is that she had the advantage in calling the snap election, you would have thought the manifesto had been focused group/message tested.
Whilst Labour and all the other parties would have struggled.
This is what is just weird about the whole thing. Other than the social care stuff, which they quickly rowed back on, they haven't changed tack or attacked Labour properly at all. There hasn't really been a campaign at all.
Here's a theory.
Sir Lynton's crap, cf the 2005 general election campaign and Zac Goldsmith's Mayoral campaign.
Winning the 2015 GE was down purely to Dave and George.
Well, Zac Goldsmith was bloody awful. He was just embarrassingly bad. I wouldn't have voted for him.
Also, Crosby helped Boris win in a Labour city.
Also it isn't just Crosby for the GE, it is Messina as well. Last time, if all the stories are to be believed they were ahead of the game, targeting the right people and they were active in the campaign with the "in your pocket" and Dave on the stump waving his no money left letter.
This time, there is literally nothing, despite the narrowing polls.
Speaking of gaming the odious FPTP system, it's a shame we can't start a scheme to move voter registrations from safe seats to marginals. It's technically illegal, but candidates get away with something similar, pretending they live in constituencies when they don't... (Reminds me there's been a small kerfuffle in Beeston regarding Soubry's residential status.)
There already is such gaming of the system . It is called holiday homes .
And overseas voters who can choose in which constituency to vote.
Isn't your vote in the last constituency you were registered to vote in as a UK resident?
Indeed, you can't just pick one out!
Test out registering as an overseas voter. I just did. You simply declare where your last residence in the UK was , i.e. you just pick one out.
I am going to be fascinated to hear what Crosby and Messina have been up to for the past month.
The fact that Crosby has been quoted off the record to the media a few weeks ago tells you that he's not happy how things are going.
He never briefed against Dave. If you read the 2015 book by Tim Ross, you can tell Cameron and his team listened to what Crosby said and then did it.
The thing that is confusing to me is that is is all silent since then. Not just from Crosby, but really the Tories. They haven't run a campaign, they have run a "let Jezza spout whatever he wants and we won't attack it".
What makes this campaign by Mrs May so bad is that she had the advantage in calling the snap election, you would have thought the manifesto had been focused group/message tested.
Whilst Labour and all the other parties would have struggled.
This is what is just weird about the whole thing. Other than the social care stuff, which they quickly rowed back on, they haven't changed tack or attacked Labour properly at all. There hasn't really been a campaign at all.
Here's a theory.
Sir Lynton's crap, cf the 2005 general election campaign and Zac Goldsmith's Mayoral campaign.
Winning the 2015 GE was down purely to Dave and George.
I too am sceptical about Crosby. His record both in Britain and abroad is mixed. If a country or city is going to elect a right-wing government, sometimes it just is - so not all the credit can go to the adviser. And if it's just going to elect a left-wing government, then not all the blame should go to the adviser either. You have to judge an adviser on what they manage to achieve against the trend (which is actually rather difficult to deaggregate, but would be an ideal measure) or at least the manner in which they seemed to handle things (which is more visible). The Crosby's London mayoral campaign for Zac was clearly an atrocious campaign. Perhaps even a brilliant adviser couldn't have won it either, but it hardly looked like the work of a master strategist did it?
Would be interested in thoughts on his 2005 performance with Michael Howard. I don't think that exactly captured the mood of the nation either, and showed similar deficiencies to what happened with Zac. But what would trend performance have been for the Tories (or for an opposition in general, at that stage)? And what would "trend with Michael Howard" have been? (I quite like the guy actually, but the answer to that is presumably "a bit lower".)
I had the same feeling watching Corbyn last night and reading the reactions on here to how I felt watching Trump in the Republican primaries. His so-called fatal gaffes just won't damage him in the way people expect.
Corbyn is Sanders not Trump, he has secured his leadership by preventing a Tory landslide so ironically while he will still probably lose his better than expected campaign means Labour moderates won't be able to get rid of him and he will likely lead Labour through to 2022 too
I hate the comparison with Sanders...but Sanders isn't a terrorist sympathizer who has built a team of marxists, anti-semites and holocaust deniers.
Sanders ran on the same anti corporation, anti rich platform as Corbyn and while not as pacificist as Corbyn was vocally anti the Iraq War, no surprise Sanders endorsed Corbyn today
That is a fair point, and he promised students a load of freebies. My issue is that I see Sanders as a decent man. The Clinton machine found literally no dirt on him. I can't say the same about Corbyn.
I certainly think Sanders is a contender in 2020 if he is not too old to run again, Reagan of course narrowly lost the nomination in 1976 to Ford but ran again in 1980 and won a landslide victory over Carter. Could Sanders be a Democratic Reagan to Clinton's Ford and Trump's Carter? In a nightmare for conservatives could Corbyn also be the left's Thatcher? I still probably don't think so but I think this may be an election too early for Corbyn, 2022 will be the one he is aiming for, Heath of course lost in 1966 after 2 years in charge but won in 1970
I am going to be fascinated to hear what Crosby and Messina have been up to for the past month.
The fact that Crosby has been quoted off the record to the media a few weeks ago tells you that he's not happy how things are going.
He never briefed against Dave. If you read the 2015 book by Tim Ross, you can tell Cameron and his team listened to what Crosby said and then did it.
The thing that is confusing to me is that is is all silent since then. Not just from Crosby, but really the Tories. They haven't run a campaign, they have run a "let Jezza spout whatever he wants and we won't attack it".
What makes this campaign by Mrs May so bad is that she had the advantage in calling the snap election, you would have thought the manifesto had been focused group/message tested.
Whilst Labour and all the other parties would have struggled.
This is what is just weird about the whole thing. Other than the social care stuff, which they quickly rowed back on, they haven't changed tack or attacked Labour properly at all. There hasn't really been a campaign at all.
Here's a theory.
Sir Lynton's crap, cf the 2005 general election campaign and Zac Goldsmith's Mayoral campaign.
Winning the 2015 GE was down purely to Dave and George.
I am going to be fascinated to hear what Crosby and Messina have been up to for the past month.
The fact that Crosby has been quoted off the record to the media a few weeks ago tells you that he's not happy how things are going.
He never briefed against Dave. If you read the 2015 book by Tim Ross, you can tell Cameron and his team listened to what Crosby said and then did it.
The thing that is confusing to me is that is is all silent since then. Not just from Crosby, but really the Tories. They haven't run a campaign, they have run a "let Jezza spout whatever he wants and we won't attack it".
What makes this campaign by Mrs May so bad is that she had the advantage in calling the snap election, you would have thought the manifesto had been focused group/message tested.
Maybe she really did just decide to have the election while up a mountain in Wales the weekend before she announced it and honestly hadn't done any preparation?
I have been away all week in the Brecon beacons (as an aside the whole area was covered with Con placards with hardly a Lab/Lib Dem /Plaid poster anywhere) so im a just catching up with PB but like many others i am genuinely puzzled as to exactly WHAT is going in CPHQ
Is there any account anywhere of what might be going on???
I am going to be fascinated to hear what Crosby and Messina have been up to for the past month.
The fact that Crosby has been quoted off the record to the media a few weeks ago tells you that he's not happy how things are going.
He never briefed against Dave. If you read the 2015 book by Tim Ross, you can tell Cameron and his team listened to what Crosby said and then did it.
The thing that is confusing to me is that is is all silent since then. Not just from Crosby, but really the Tories. They haven't run a campaign, they have run a "let Jezza spout whatever he wants and we won't attack it".
What makes this campaign by Mrs May so bad is that she had the advantage in calling the snap election, you would have thought the manifesto had been focused group/message tested.
Whilst Labour and all the other parties would have struggled.
This is what is just weird about the whole thing. Other than the social care stuff, which they quickly rowed back on, they haven't changed tack or attacked Labour properly at all. There hasn't really been a campaign at all.
Here's a theory.
Sir Lynton's crap, cf the 2005 general election campaign and Zac Goldsmith's Mayoral campaign.
Winning the 2015 GE was down purely to Dave and George.
Well, Zac Goldsmith was bloody awful. He was just embarrassingly bad. I wouldn't have voted for him.
Also, Crosby helped Boris win in a Labour city.
Also it isn't just Crosby for the GE, it is Messina as well. Last time, if all the stories are to be believed they were ahead of the game, targeting the right people and they were active in the campaign with the "in your pocket" and Dave on the stump waving his no money left letter.
Is David Cameron campaigning for the blue team? Gordon Brown's been on the stump for the reds. The last time I saw Cameron in the news, his feet were going on holiday.
But aren't these kids all bunched into a set of constituencies, mainly university towns? The 65+ age group are surely more sprinkled around?
No - frighteningly there are 18-24 year-olds everywhere. Generally people only spend 3 years at university, and more than half of them don't go to at all. As for university towns, they aren't what they were. There are now 130 universities in the UK.
Tories should indeed be frightened
Having been a grumpy git for years regarding the Facebooky phone-pickers called "young people", I will be OVERJOYED if this demographic gets off its butt and delivers the country the best PM we will have had since Clement Attlee.
Thirty years ago, Jeremy Corbyn was wrong about Northern Ireland. Other failings of the Labour manifesto - such as doing little to reverse Tory trade union laws, not promising to raise inheritance tax aim Farron, to form a government, I have full confidence that he will. His competence leaves thug-liar-buffoons like Boris Johnson, mere buffoons like Michael Fallon, and empty sloganeers like Theresa May, completely in the shade. Want a good "deal" with EU27? Corbyn is our man.
This is why the Tories hate his guts. James Callagan, John Smith, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Margaret Beckett, Ed Miliband - none received anything like this amount of hatred. Not even Neil Kinnock did, at the height of the Ice Maiden's reign of terror. Harold Wilson was hated, but behind the hatred for him was the visceral and secular Tory hate for British men who dig coal out of the ground. Michael Foot was hated for his principles, but as a past president of the Oxford Union not on the same level as Jeremy Corbyn. Denis Healey promised to tax the rich "until the pips squeak", but he didn't really mean it and deep down the rich knew it.
The Tories f***ed up with Brexit, they f***ed up with calling this election, their cabinet has the putrid smell that John Major's cabinet had before the 1997 election...and I remain optimistic.
Hole the Tory campaign with a couple of big propaganda hits (white, grey, black, whatever works) between now and Tuesday - or even a single enormous one - and we've won.
Speaking of gaming the odious FPTP system, it's a shame we can't start a scheme to move voter registrations from safe seats to marginals. It's technically illegal, but candidates get away with something similar, pretending they live in constituencies when they don't... (Reminds me there's been a small kerfuffle in Beeston regarding Soubry's residential status.)
There already is such gaming of the system . It is called holiday homes .
And overseas voters who can choose in which constituency to vote.
Isn't your vote in the last constituency you were registered to vote in as a UK resident?
Indeed, you can't just pick one out!
Test out registering as an overseas voter. I just did. You simply declare where your last residence in the UK was , i.e. you just pick one out.
Having been a grumpy git for years regarding the Facebooky phone-pickers called "young people", I will be OVERJOYED if this demographic gets off its butt and delivers the country the best PM we will have had since Clement Attlee.
Thirty years ago, Jeremy Corbyn was wrong about Northern Ireland. Other failings of the Labour manifesto - such as doing little to reverse Tory trade union laws, not promising to raise inheritance tax and income tax for the rich as high as we might wish, backing a replacement for Trident, not clearly denouncing the existence of the fascist regime called Israel, and not attacking the private schools in any other way than making them charge VAT - can be put down to the compromises Corbyn has had to make with scumbags to get where he is. If politics is the art of compromise, he has performed superbly. If he is obliged to make a deal with Nicola Sturgeon, and perhaps also with Tim Farron, to form a government, I have full confidence that he will. His competence leaves thug-liar-buffoons like Boris Johnson, mere buffoons like Michael Fallon, and empty sloganeers like Theresa May, completely in the shade. Want a good "deal" with EU27? Corbyn is our man.
This is why the Tories hate his guts. James Callagan, John Smith, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Margaret Beckett, Ed Miliband - none received anything like this amount of hatred. Not even Neil Kinnock did, at the height of the Ice Maiden's reign of terror. Harold Wilson was hated, but behind the hatred for him was the visceral and secular Tory hate for British men who dig coal out of the ground. Michael Foot was hated for his principles, but as a past president of the Oxford Union not on the same level as Jeremy Corbyn. Denis Healey promised to tax the rich "until the pips squeak", but he didn't really mean it and deep down the rich knew it.
The Tories f***ed up with Brexit, they f***ed up with calling this election, their cabinet has the putrid smell that John Major's cabinet had before the 1997 election...and I remain optimistic.
Hole the Tory campaign with a couple of big propaganda hits (white, grey, black, whatever works) between now and Tuesday - or even a single enormous one - and we've won.
Praise Marx and pass the ammunition.
LOL. I really am going to enjoy your pain on Friday morning. If those are your views then you deserve all the angst and disappointment you are going to get.
I am going to be fascinated to hear what Crosby and Messina have been up to for the past month.
The fact that Crosby has been quoted off the record to the media a few weeks ago tells you that he's not happy how things are going.
He never briefed against Dave. If you read the 2015 book by Tim Ross, you can tell Cameron and his team listened to what Crosby said and then did it.
The thing that is confusing to me is that is is all silent since then. Not just from Crosby, but really the Tories. They haven't run a campaign, they have run a "let Jezza spout whatever he wants and we won't attack it".
What makes this campaign by Mrs May so bad is that she had the advantage in calling the snap election, you would have thought the manifesto had been focused group/message tested.
Whilst Labour and all the other parties would have struggled.
This is what is just weird about the whole thing. Other than the social care stuff, which they quickly rowed back on, they haven't changed tack or attacked Labour properly at all. There hasn't really been a campaign at all.
Here's a theory.
Sir Lynton's crap, cf the 2005 general election campaign and Zac Goldsmith's Mayoral campaign.
Winning the 2015 GE was down purely to Dave and George.
Well, Zac Goldsmith was bloody awful. He was just embarrassingly bad. I wouldn't have voted for him.
Also, Crosby helped Boris win in a Labour city.
Also it isn't just Crosby for the GE, it is Messina as well. Last time, if all the stories are to be believed they were ahead of the game, targeting the right people and they were active in the campaign with the "in your pocket" and Dave on the stump waving his no money left letter.
This time, there is literally nothing, despite the narrowing polls.
I just find it all really really odd.
I think it is time.
Sir Lynton had two years prep, and Jim Messina one year to prep for GE2015.
This time they've had around two months.
I know for a fact, they messaged tested the crap out of 'Long term economic plan' and that's why it worked.
'Strong and stable' hasn't been quite as successful.
I am going to be fascinated to hear what Crosby and Messina have been up to for the past month.
The fact that Crosby has been quoted off the record to the media a few weeks ago tells you that he's not happy how things are going.
He never briefed against Dave. If you read the 2015 book by Tim Ross, you can tell Cameron and his team listened to what Crosby said and then did it.
The thing that is confusing to me is that is is all silent since then. Not just from Crosby, but really the Tories. They haven't run a campaign, they have run a "let Jezza spout whatever he wants and we won't attack it".
What makes this campaign by Mrs May so bad is that she had the advantage in calling the snap election, you would have thought the manifesto had been focused group/message tested.
Whilst Labour and all the other parties would have struggled.
This is what is just weird about the whole thing. Other than the social care stuff, which they quickly rowed back on, they haven't changed tack or attacked Labour properly at all. There hasn't really been a campaign at all.
Here's a theory.
Sir Lynton's crap, cf the 2005 general election campaign and Zac Goldsmith's Mayoral campaign.
Winning the 2015 GE was down purely to Dave and George.
Well, Zac Goldsmith was bloody awful. He was just embarrassingly bad. I wouldn't have voted for him.
Also, Crosby helped Boris win in a Labour city.
Also it isn't just Crosby for the GE, it is Messina as well. Last time, if all the stories are to be believed they were ahead of the game, targeting the right people and they were active in the campaign with the "in your pocket" and Dave on the stump waving his no money left letter.
The stories which came out after election day...!
Well the in your pocket and no money left we saw them. The private polling claims, nobody seem to doubt the Messina side of this. Even the Labour private pollster said they saw some of this, but didn't spend anywhere near the money or have the sort of database Messina has, so kept balancing this with the public polls.
Lib Dems looking for tactical voting here in Colchester - can't see them winning the seat back tbh.
5,800 homeless UKIP votes this time - no candidate. I doubt the LibDems pledge to have a second referendum is going to have them flocking to the Yellow side....
I still think many people are missing the point, if the Conservatives are at 43% or more on polling day, it frankly wont matter what the rest do, its not going to be anything other than a working majority for Blue.
Once you are at those levels you have a point of maximum impact on your return.
@rottenborough Apparently many 18-24s are already in Labour safe seats (I'm the exception to that rule, given I'm in Watford). Some are in university towns, but with many unis closed, some could have registered where their uni is but are voting somewhere else.
If they are registered at Uni, I didn't think they could vote anywhere else in a General Election?
That's not correct. A person can be registered on the electoral roll in as many constituencies as they have a residence. So a student whose permanent home address is in a different constituency from where they are living during term time can register and vote in local elections in both places. Of course they are only allowed to vote once in a general election, but it is up to them which constituency they do it in. Don't underestimate our young people.
I am going to be fascinated to hear what Crosby and Messina have been up to for the past month.
The fact that Crosby has been quoted off the record to the media a few weeks ago tells you that he's not happy how things are going.
He never briefed against Dave. If you read the 2015 book by Tim Ross, you can tell Cameron and his team listened to what Crosby said and then did it.
The thing that is confusing to me is that is is all silent since then. Not just from Crosby, but really the Tories. They haven't run a campaign, they have run a "let Jezza spout whatever he wants and we won't attack it".
What makes this campaign by Mrs May so bad is that she had the advantage in calling the snap election, you would have thought the manifesto had been focused group/message tested.
Whilst Labour and all the other parties would have struggled.
This is what is just weird about the whole thing. Other than the social care stuff, which they quickly rowed back on, they haven't changed tack or attacked Labour properly at all. There hasn't really been a campaign at all.
Here's a theory.
Sir Lynton's crap, cf the 2005 general election campaign and Zac Goldsmith's Mayoral campaign.
Winning the 2015 GE was down purely to Dave and George.
Im not the GO fan that you are but it is certainly a plausible explanation.
As an aside are you still helping out in the Don Valley and will you be posting your thoughts come 10.01pm Thursday as to how it went?
Is David Cameron campaigning for the blue team? Gordon Brown's been on the stump for the reds. The last time I saw Cameron in the news, his feet were going on holiday.
Yep, can't remember where (West Country?) but I saw a couple of items on him campaigning last week.
@foxinsoxuk Interesting that you aren't sticking with Con maj 76.
I am sticking to 76 for the moment, I expect swingback.
Just teasing the PB Tories.
I think that we are seeing tactical voting to a large degree, and in most parts of the country that means LD to Lab, and I hope that the reverse occurs in LD target seats.
I also think that the SNP car crash of a campaign has been underestimated. Ruthie has detached SCon from the May campaign very neatly, and I think low 40's for SNP.
As a Lib Dem member, I'm concerned that we are positioning ourselves too close to Corbyn's Labour in this election. I don't think we should be a 'left wing' alternative, we should be a Liberal alternative.
I feel a bit sorry for Farron. I'm surprised that the anti-Brexit message has gone down like a bucket of cold sick.
I can only think that the younger vote, flocking to Labour over the free goodies and tuition fees, still don't trust the Lib Dems after the coalition.
As traditional supporters of free trade, the Liberals could just as easily be arguing to be outside the EU so as to negotiate free trade deals with the USA, China, India etc which the EU has failed to do.
To sacrifice everything to be so pro the EU is not consistent with liberal thinking, especially when it means rejecting the democratic referendum vote to leave the EU.
The current Lib Dem leadership has dumped its free trade principles and its democratic principles. Lib Dem voters are a better educated group - the kind of people who notice these things.
Lawyer's note: this print is a souvenir piece of campaign material, it is in no way meant to influence the choices of the electorate, has no monetary value, is for amusement purposes only and is strictly not for re-sale. Terms and conditions to follow, postage not included.
Why wouldn't people just say they'll vote, get the freebie then not?
You're required to send a picture of your ballot.
Which is illegal. Banksy couldn't participate in an illegal enterprise. So he will never have to give away any.
The man is a genius of self-publicity.....
It seems it's not illegal to publish a "selfie" of your own ballot paper in the UK, though it's discouraged.
Section 66 of the RPA:
(3)No person shall—: ... (d)directly or indirectly induce a voter to display his ballot paper after he has marked it so as to make known to any person the name of the candidate for whom he has or has not voted.
But aren't these kids all bunched into a set of constituencies, mainly university towns? The 65+ age group are surely more sprinkled around?
No - frighteningly there are 18-24 year-olds everywhere. Generally people only spend 3 years at university, and more than half of them don't go to at all. As for university towns, they aren't what they were. There are now 130 universities in the UK.
Tories should indeed be frightened
Having been a grumpy git for years regarding the Facebooky phone-pickers called "young people", I will be OVERJOYED if this demographic gets off its butt and delivers the country the best PM we will have had since Clement Attlee.
Thirty years ago, Jeremy Corbyn was wrong about Northern Ireland. Other failings of the Labour manifesto - such as doing little to reverse Tory trade union laws, not promising to raise inheritance tax aim Farron, to form a government, I have full confidence that he will. His competence leaves thug-liar-buffoons like Boris Johnson, mere buffoons like Michael Fallon, and empty sloganeers like Theresa May, completely in the shade. Want a good "deal" with EU27? Corbyn is our man.
This is why the Tories hate his guts. James Callagan, John Smith, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Margaret Beckett, Ed Miliband - none received anything like this amount of hatred. Not even Neil Kinnock did, at the height of the Ice Maiden's reign of terror. Harold Wilson was hated, but behind the hatred for him was the visceral and secular Tory hate for British men who dig coal out of the ground. Michael Foot was hated for his principles, but as a past president of the Oxford Union not on the same level as Jeremy Corbyn. Denis Healey promised to tax the rich "until the pips squeak", but he didn't really mean it and deep down the rich knew it.
The Tories f***ed up with Brexit, they f***ed up with calling this election, their cabinet has the putrid smell that John Major's cabinet had before the 1997 election...and I remain optimistic.
Hole the Tory campaign with a couple of big propaganda hits (white, grey, black, whatever works) between now and Tuesday - or even a single enormous one - and we've won.
Is David Cameron campaigning for the blue team? Gordon Brown's been on the stump for the reds. The last time I saw Cameron in the news, his feet were going on holiday.
I suspect May actively doesn't want him to play a role, as her whole reason for having an election (after all the bluster and nonsense about getting a better Brexit deal) is getting a mandate for HER rather than piggy-backing on his 2015 mandate. And I suspect he's more than happy to oblige in that respect.
Speaking of gaming the odious FPTP system, it's a shame we can't start a scheme to move voter registrations from safe seats to marginals. It's technically illegal, but candidates get away with something similar, pretending they live in constituencies when they don't... (Reminds me there's been a small kerfuffle in Beeston regarding Soubry's residential status.)
There already is such gaming of the system . It is called holiday homes .
And overseas voters who can choose in which constituency to vote.
Isn't your vote in the last constituency you were registered to vote in as a UK resident?
You have to declare your last address in the UK. You don't have to have been registered there. You can make it up. A friend of a friend that you stayed with before you left the UK.
On the online form it asks:
What was the UK address where you were last registered to vote?
This is where your vote will be counted in elections.
I had the same feeling watching Corbyn last night and reading the reactions on here to how I felt watching Trump in the Republican primaries. His so-called fatal gaffes just won't damage him in the way people expect.
Corbyn is Sanders not Trump, he has secured his leadership by preventing a Tory landslide so ironically while he will still probably lose his better than expected campaign means Labour moderates won't be able to get rid of him and he will likely lead Labour through to 2022 too
I hate the comparison with Sanders...Sanders isn't a terrorist sympathizer who has built a team of marxists, anti-semites and holocaust deniers.
I am going to be fascinated to hear what Crosby and Messina have been up to for the past month.
The fact that Crosby has been quoted off the record to the media a few weeks ago tells you that he's not happy how things are going.
He never briefed against Dave. If you read the 2015 book by Tim Ross, you can tell Cameron and his team listened to what Crosby said and then did it.
The thing that is confusing to me is that is is all silent since then. Not just from Crosby, but really the Tories. They haven't run a campaign, they have run a "let Jezza spout whatever he wants and we won't attack it".
What makes this campaign by Mrs May so bad is that she had the advantage in calling the snap election, you would have thought the manifesto had been focused group/message tested.
Whilst Labour and all the other parties would have struggled.
This is what is just weird about the whole thing. Other than the social care stuff, which they quickly rowed back on, they haven't changed tack or attacked Labour properly at all. There hasn't really been a campaign at all.
Here's a theory.
Sir Lynton's crap, cf the 2005 general election campaign and Zac Goldsmith's Mayoral campaign.
Winning the 2015 GE was down purely to Dave and George.
Im not the GO fan that you are but it is certainly a plausible explanation.
As an aside are you still helping out in the Don Valley and will you be posting your thoughts come 10.01pm Thursday as to how it went?
I plan to campaign in Don Valley Mon, Tues, Wed.
As for revealing my thoughts at 10.01pm on Thursday, no, I won't have sufficient info to make that call, and even if I did have that info, I wouldn't, that's something for Aaron to say.
In 2015, I spent six weeks campaigning in West Yorkshire (I took a sabbatical from work) so I had a pretty good feel of the campaign, plus in 2015, I had contacts at CCHQ who were quite generous (and accurate) what their private polling was showing.
Speaking of gaming the odious FPTP system, it's a shame we can't start a scheme to move voter registrations from safe seats to marginals. It's technically illegal, but candidates get away with something similar, pretending they live in constituencies when they don't... (Reminds me there's been a small kerfuffle in Beeston regarding Soubry's residential status.)
There already is such gaming of the system . It is called holiday homes .
And overseas voters who can choose in which constituency to vote.
Isn't your vote in the last constituency you were registered to vote in as a UK resident?
Indeed, you can't just pick one out!
Test out registering as an overseas voter. I just did. You simply declare where your last residence in the UK was , i.e. you just pick one out.
Don't they actually check that you were previously registered there? The online form can't do that.
Lawyer's note: this print is a souvenir piece of campaign material, it is in no way meant to influence the choices of the electorate, has no monetary value, is for amusement purposes only and is strictly not for re-sale. Terms and conditions to follow, postage not included.
Why wouldn't people just say they'll vote, get the freebie then not?
You're required to send a picture of your ballot.
Which is illegal. Banksy couldn't participate in an illegal enterprise. So he will never have to give away any.
The man is a genius of self-publicity.....
It seems it's not illegal to publish a "selfie" of your own ballot paper in the UK, though it's discouraged.
Section 66 of the RPA:
(3)No person shall—: ... (d)directly or indirectly induce a voter to display his ballot paper after he has marked it so as to make known to any person the name of the candidate for whom he has or has not voted.
So Banksy has already fallen foul of s.66 it seems.
How amusing it would be if this little stunt causes his anonymity to finally be lost!
Is David Cameron campaigning for the blue team? Gordon Brown's been on the stump for the reds. The last time I saw Cameron in the news, his feet were going on holiday.
He's been told by the May Team to stay well away. Mad decision but there it is.
Having been a grumpy git for years regarding the Facebooky phone-pickers called "young people", I will be OVERJOYED if this demographic gets off its butt and delivers the country the best PM we will have had since Clement Attlee.
Thirty years ago, Jeremy Corbyn was wrong about Northern Ireland. Other failings of the Labour manifesto - such as doing little to reverse Tory trade union laws, not promising to raise inheritance tax and income tax for the rich as high as we might wish, backing a replacement for Trident, not clearly denouncing the existence of the fascist regime called Israel, and not attacking the private schools in any other way than making them charge VAT - can be put down to the compromises Corbyn has had to make with scumbags to get where he is. If politics is the art of compromise, he has performed superbly. If he is obliged to make a deal with Nicola Sturgeon, and perhaps also with Tim Farron, to form a government, I have full confidence that he will. His competence leaves thug-liar-buffoons like Boris Johnson, mere buffoons like Michael Fallon, and empty sloganeers like Theresa May, completely in the shade. Want a good "deal" with EU27? Corbyn is our man.
This is why the Tories hate his guts. James Callagan, John Smith, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Margaret Beckett, Ed Miliband - none received anything like this amount of hatred. Not even Neil Kinnock did, at the height of the Ice Maiden's reign of terror. Harold Wilson was hated, but behind the hatred for him was the visceral and secular Tory hate for British men who dig coal out of the ground. Michael Foot was hated for his principles, but as a past president of the Oxford Union not on the same level as Jeremy Corbyn. Denis Healey promised to tax the rich "until the pips squeak", but he didn't really mean it and deep down the rich knew it.
The Tories f***ed up with Brexit, they f***ed up with calling this election, their cabinet has the putrid smell that John Major's cabinet had before the 1997 election...and I remain optimistic.
Hole the Tory campaign with a couple of big propaganda hits (white, grey, black, whatever works) between now and Tuesday - or even a single enormous one - and we've won.
Praise Marx and pass the ammunition.
LOL. I really am going to enjoy your pain on Friday morning. If those are your views then you deserve all the angst and disappointment you are going to get.
I suspect a number of posters are going to be conspicuous by their absence on Friday.....or even from 10.03 on Thursday....
Is David Cameron campaigning for the blue team? Gordon Brown's been on the stump for the reds. The last time I saw Cameron in the news, his feet were going on holiday.
He's been told by the May Team to stay well away. Mad decision but there it is.
I'd heard that story too.
Apparently she wants to own this campaign and victory, so she could say she won the South West, not Dave this time.
I am going to be fascinated to hear what Crosby and Messina have been up to for the past month.
The fact that Crosby has been quoted off the record to the media a few weeks ago tells you that he's not happy how things are going.
He never briefed against Dave. If you read the 2015 book by Tim Ross, you can tell Cameron and his team listened to what Crosby said and then did it.
The thing that is confusing to me is that is is all silent since then. Not just from Crosby, but really the Tories. They haven't run a campaign, they have run a "let Jezza spout whatever he wants and we won't attack it".
What makes this campaign by Mrs May so bad is that she had the advantage in calling the snap election, you would have thought the manifesto had been focused group/message tested.
Whilst Labour and all the other parties would have struggled.
This is what is just weird about the whole thing. Other than the social care stuff, which they quickly rowed back on, they haven't changed tack or attacked Labour properly at all. There hasn't really been a campaign at all.
Here's a theory.
Sir Lynton's crap, cf the 2005 general election campaign and Zac Goldsmith's Mayoral campaign.
Winning the 2015 GE was down purely to Dave and George.
Well, Zac Goldsmith was bloody awful. He was just embarrassingly bad. I wouldn't have voted for him.
Also, Crosby helped Boris win in a Labour city.
Also it isn't just Crosby for the GE, it is Messina as well. Last time, if all the stories are to be believed they were ahead of the game, targeting the right people and they were active in the campaign with the "in your pocket" and Dave on the stump waving his no money left letter.
This time, there is literally nothing, despite the narrowing polls.
I just find it all really really odd.
I think it is time.
Sir Lynton had two years prep, and Jim Messina one year to prep for GE2015.
This time they've had around two months.
I know for a fact, they messaged tested the crap out of 'Long term economic plan' and that's why it worked.
'Strong and stable' hasn't been quite as successful.
Really? Parties have plans in case of an early election, and indeed it's been clear since last summer (as Corbyn cruised past Smith to the leadership) that the election would be Corbyn v May. What have they been doing at CCHQ in that time?
Having been a grumpy git for years regarding the Facebooky phone-pickers called "young people", I will be OVERJOYED if this demographic gets off its butt and delivers the country the best PM we will have had since Clement Attlee.
Thirty years ago, Jeremy Corbyn was wrong about Northern Ireland. Other failings of the Labour manifesto - such as doing little to reverse Tory trade union laws, not promising to raise inheritance tax and income tax for the rich as high as we might wish, backing a replacement for Trident, not clearly denouncing the existence of the fascist regime called Israel, and not attacking the private schools in any other way than making them charge VAT - can be put down to the compromises Corbyn has had to make with scumbags to get where he is. If politics is the art of compromise, he has performed superbly. If he is obliged to make a deal with Nicola Sturgeon, and perhaps also with Tim Farron, to form a government, I have full confidence that he will. His competence leaves thug-liar-buffoons like Boris Johnson, mere buffoons like Michael Fallon, and empty sloganeers like Theresa May, completely in the shade. Want a good "deal" with EU27? Corbyn is our man.
This is why the Tories hate his guts. James Callagan, John Smith, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Margaret Beckett, Ed Miliband - none received anything like this amount of hatred. Not even Neil Kinnock did, at the height of the Ice Maiden's reign of terror. Harold Wilson was hated, but behind the hatred for him was the visceral and secular Tory hate for British men who dig coal out of the ground. Michael Foot was hated for his principles, but as a past president of the Oxford Union not on the same level as Jeremy Corbyn. Denis Healey promised to tax the rich "until the pips squeak", but he didn't really mean it and deep down the rich knew it.
The Tories f***ed up with Brexit, they f***ed up with calling this election, their cabinet has the putrid smell that John Major's cabinet had before the 1997 election...and I remain optimistic.
Hole the Tory campaign with a couple of big propaganda hits (white, grey, black, whatever works) between now and Tuesday - or even a single enormous one - and we've won.
Praise Marx and pass the ammunition.
LOL. I really am going to enjoy your pain on Friday morning. If those are your views then you deserve all the angst and disappointment you are going to get.
Yeah, but as a rant, you have to admit it was SeanT class, Richard.
So, what shower of shit are the Sundays going to pour over Corbyn tonight do we think?
I have this feeling we aren't going to see anything. If they were going to go full on bucket of shit they would have start the build up by now because it takes several days before it even starts to hit home.
Is David Cameron campaigning for the blue team? Gordon Brown's been on the stump for the reds. The last time I saw Cameron in the news, his feet were going on holiday.
I suspect May actively doesn't want him to play a role, as her whole reason for having an election (after all the bluster and nonsense about getting a better Brexit deal) is getting a mandate for HER rather than piggy-backing on his 2015 mandate. And I suspect he's more than happy to oblige in that respect.
Having been a grumpy git for years regarding the Facebooky phone-pickers called "young people", I will be OVERJOYED if this demographic gets off its butt and delivers the country the best PM we will have had since Clement Attlee.
Thirty years ago, Jeremy Corbyn was wrong about Northern Ireland. Other failings of the Labour manifesto - such as doing little to reverse Tory trade union laws, not promising to raise inheritance tax and income tax for the rich as high as we might wish, backing a replacement for Trident, not clearly denouncing the existence of the fascist regime called Israel, and not attacking the private schools in any other way than making them charge VAT - can be put down to the compromises Corbyn has had to make with scumbags to get where he is. If politics is the art of compromise, he has performed superbly. If he is obliged to make a deal with Nicola Sturgeon, and perhaps also with Tim Farron, to form a government, I have full confidence that he will. His competence leaves thug-liar-buffoons like Boris Johnson, mere buffoons like Michael Fallon, and empty sloganeers like Theresa May, completely in the shade. Want a good "deal" with EU27? Corbyn is our man.
This is why the Tories hate his guts. James Callagan, John Smith, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Margaret Beckett, Ed Miliband - none received anything like this amount of hatred. Not even Neil Kinnock did, at the height of the Ice Maiden's reign of terror. Harold Wilson was hated, but behind the hatred for him was the visceral and secular Tory hate for British men who dig coal out of the ground. Michael Foot was hated for his principles, but as a past president of the Oxford Union not on the same level as Jeremy Corbyn. Denis Healey promised to tax the rich "until the pips squeak", but he didn't really mean it and deep down the rich knew it.
The Tories f***ed up with Brexit, they f***ed up with calling this election, their cabinet has the putrid smell that John Major's cabinet had before the 1997 election...and I remain optimistic.
Hole the Tory campaign with a couple of big propaganda hits (white, grey, black, whatever works) between now and Tuesday - or even a single enormous one - and we've won.
Praise Marx and pass the ammunition.
LOL. I really am going to enjoy your pain on Friday morning. If those are your views then you deserve all the angst and disappointment you are going to get.
Were you badly brought up or something? A person shouldn't enjoy another person's pain. That's nasty.
I really think we're heading for a polling disaster here and my betting position now reflects that. I'm on the 376-400 Con seats share. The last 48 hours I've been digging into the age demographic data. We know 42% of 18-24s voted in 2015, 63% at the EU ref. There is NO WAY repeat NO WAY after the EU referendum where one vote counted the same anywhere in the country that the youth voter engagement will be higher at this constituency based election. This Corbyn youth wave may be happening on twitter, it may happen at Universities but it is not happening more widely amongst working class youth voters and those traditionally disengaged. I've done my own experiments in swing seats (Lincoln), and I'm telling you most 18-24s just don't care. Another problem is the social media and polling noise is just as much coming from 14-17 year olds which is completely useless.
If you walk around your local town as I did today and see young people on their phones, shopping, chatting rubbish etc you know that after years of not voting they are not suddenly going to be turned on by a stuffy and dull 67 year old man, you have to remember many, many young people have conservative views on crime, immigration etc, they will reflect the view of their parents but at the same time are unlikely to be voting. Young people are not political activists, this is not a revolution and when I hear on PB or UKpolling that "oh my son and his friends are voting Corbyn" , thats because they're the kids of highly politicised middle class nerds - they are the minority! The surge is just not happening on the scale the pollsters think and it will not transfer to the ballot box. I am sure of that. I imagine Tory polling is also sure of that. The fact remain lost the referendum will only have served to increase those thinking 'what's the point' rather than keeping them engaged.
On top of this I'm not so much looking at 18-24 data when looking at Corbyn's vote as 18-30s being a more realistic example of high Corbyn support but mediocre turnout. Problem is I don't think we should be looking just at the 65+ group for a high Tory vote and turnout, it's almost the same with the over 55s too. As we know for sheer numbers alone 55+ on numbers alone we have around 5 or 6 million more people in there are in the 18-30 group.
So in summary Labour's polling is relying on (for the first time ever) huge waves of youth voters turning out at levels above the EU ref, and not just in safe middle class Tory seats or safe Labour university seats. Meanwhile the Tories have the over 55s who always turn out, with a more polarised choice than ever, a safe inoffensive conservative or a throwback from those bad economic years in the 1970s. I think they are going to turnout bigly for May despite her weak campaign and will hold the key to a very reasonable Con majority.
I am going to be fascinated to hear what Crosby and Messina have been up to for the past month.
The fact that Crosby has been quoted off the record to the media a few weeks ago tells you that he's not happy how things are going.
He never briefed against Dave. If you read the 2015 book by Tim Ross, you can tell Cameron and his team listened to what Crosby said and then did it.
The thing that is confusing to me is that is is all silent since then. Not just from Crosby, but really the Tories. They haven't run a campaign, they have run a "let Jezza spout whatever he wants and we won't attack it".
What makes this campaign by Mrs May so bad is that she had the advantage in calling the snap election, you would have thought the manifesto had been focused group/message tested.
Whilst Labour and all the other parties would have struggled.
This is what is just weird about the whole thing. Other than the social care stuff, which they quickly rowed back on, they haven't changed tack or attacked Labour properly at all. There hasn't really been a campaign at all.
Here's a theory.
Sir Lynton's crap, cf the 2005 general election campaign and Zac Goldsmith's Mayoral campaign.
Winning the 2015 GE was down purely to Dave and George.
Im not the GO fan that you are but it is certainly a plausible explanation.
As an aside are you still helping out in the Don Valley and will you be posting your thoughts come 10.01pm Thursday as to how it went?
I plan to campaign in Don Valley Mon, Tues, Wed.
As for revealing my thoughts at 10.01pm on Thursday, no, I won't have sufficient info to make that call, and even if I did have that info, I wouldn't, that's something for Aaron to say.
In 2015, I spent six weeks campaigning in West Yorkshire (I took a sabbatical from work) so I had a pretty good feel of the campaign, plus in 2015, I had contacts at CCHQ who were quite generous (and accurate) what their private polling was showing.
I see Theresa has a gif up which shows TP and her sizing up the menu.
Speaking of gaming the odious FPTP system, it's a shame we can't start a scheme to move voter registrations from safe seats to marginals. It's technically illegal, but candidates get away with something similar, pretending they live in constituencies when they don't... (Reminds me there's been a small kerfuffle in Beeston regarding Soubry's residential status.)
There already is such gaming of the system . It is called holiday homes .
And overseas voters who can choose in which constituency to vote.
Isn't your vote in the last constituency you were registered to vote in as a UK resident?
Indeed, you can't just pick one out!
Test out registering as an overseas voter. I just did. You simply declare where your last residence in the UK was , i.e. you just pick one out.
Don't they actually check that you were previously registered there? The online form can't do that.
That was certainly my experience when I registered as an overseas elector. If you say you lived at '10 Downing Street, Whitehall, Westminster' they don't just say 'fair enough, here's your postal ballot then.....'
They take the integrity of the roll seriously and you'd be given pretty short shrift if you tried to fraudulently acquire a vote you weren't entitled to.
Speaking of gaming the odious FPTP system, it's a shame we can't start a scheme to move voter registrations from safe seats to marginals. It's technically illegal, but candidates get away with something similar, pretending they live in constituencies when they don't... (Reminds me there's been a small kerfuffle in Beeston regarding Soubry's residential status.)
There already is such gaming of the system . It is called holiday homes .
And overseas voters who can choose in which constituency to vote.
Isn't your vote in the last constituency you were registered to vote in as a UK resident?
Indeed, you can't just pick one out!
Test out registering as an overseas voter. I just did. You simply declare where your last residence in the UK was , i.e. you just pick one out.
Don't they actually check that you were previously registered there? The online form can't do that.
They don't ask where you were previously registered. They simply ask where you last lived in the UK.
I am going to be fascinated to hear what Crosby and Messina have been up to for the past month.
The fact that Crosby has been quoted off the record to the media a few weeks ago tells you that he's not happy how things are going.
He never briefed against Dave. If you read the 2015 book by Tim Ross, you can tell Cameron and his team listened to what Crosby said and then did it.
Will this be another campaign where it turns out Crosby was never involved at all.
I just got one of them there Conservative attack ads on my Youtube videos. Targeting a cybernat in Edinburgh East has got to be a spectacular waste of cash.
Having been a grumpy git for years regarding the Facebooky phone-pickers called "young people", I will be OVERJOYED if this demographic gets off its butt and delivers the country the best PM we will have had since Clement Attlee.
Thirty years ago, Jeremy Corbyn was wrong about Northern Ireland. Other failings of the Labour manifesto - such as doing little to reverse Tory trade union laws, not promising to raise inheritance tax and income tax for the rich as high as we might wish, backing a replacement for Trident, not clearly denouncing the existence of the fascist regime called Israel, and not attacking the private schools in any other way than making them charge VAT - can be put down to the compromises Corbyn has had to make with scumbags to get where he is. If politics is the art of compromise, he has performed superbly. If he is obliged to make a deal with Nicola Sturgeon, and perhaps also with Tim Farron, to form a government, I have full confidence that he will. His competence leaves thug-liar-buffoons like Boris Johnson, mere buffoons like Michael Fallon, and empty sloganeers like Theresa May, completely in the shade. Want a good "deal" with EU27? Corbyn is our man.
This is why the Tories hate his guts. James Callagan, John Smith, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Margaret Beckett, Ed Miliband - none received anything like this amount of hatred. Not even Neil Kinnock did, at the height of the Ice Maiden's reign of terror. Harold Wilson was hated, but behind the hatred for him was the visceral and secular Tory hate for British men who dig coal out of the ground. Michael Foot was hated for his principles, but as a past president of the Oxford Union not on the same level as Jeremy Corbyn. Denis Healey promised to tax the rich "until the pips squeak", but he didn't really mean it and deep down the rich knew it.
The Tories f***ed up with Brexit, they f***ed up with calling this election, their cabinet has the putrid smell that John Major's cabinet had before the 1997 election...and I remain optimistic.
Hole the Tory campaign with a couple of big propaganda hits (white, grey, black, whatever works) between now and Tuesday - or even a single enormous one - and we've won.
Praise Marx and pass the ammunition.
LOL. I really am going to enjoy your pain on Friday morning. If those are your views then you deserve all the angst and disappointment you are going to get.
Were you badly brought up or something? A person shouldn't enjoy another person's pain. That's nasty.
Speaking of gaming the odious FPTP system, it's a shame we can't start a scheme to move voter registrations from safe seats to marginals. It's technically illegal, but candidates get away with something similar, pretending they live in constituencies when they don't... (Reminds me there's been a small kerfuffle in Beeston regarding Soubry's residential status.)
There already is such gaming of the system . It is called holiday homes .
And overseas voters who can choose in which constituency to vote.
Isn't your vote in the last constituency you were registered to vote in as a UK resident?
Indeed, you can't just pick one out!
Test out registering as an overseas voter. I just did. You simply declare where your last residence in the UK was , i.e. you just pick one out.
Don't they actually check that you were previously registered there? The online form can't do that.
They don't ask where you were previously registered. They simply ask where you last lived in the UK.
It asks "how were you last registered to vote", and "what was the UK address where you were last registered to vote".
Mr. Brom, I largely agree. I think a majority of 60-80 likeliest, but if it's outside that I think an upside (from a Conservative perspective) surprise likelier than falling short.
I am going to be fascinated to hear what Crosby and Messina have been up to for the past month.
The fact that Crosby has been quoted off the record to the media a few weeks ago tells you that he's not happy how things are going.
He never briefed against Dave. If you read the 2015 book by Tim Ross, you can tell Cameron and his team listened to what Crosby said and then did it.
The thing that is confusing to me is that is is all silent since then. Not just from Crosby, but really the Tories. They haven't run a campaign, they have run a "let Jezza spout whatever he wants and we won't attack it".
What makes this campaign by Mrs May so bad is that she had the advantage in calling the snap election, you would have thought the manifesto had been focused group/message tested.
Whilst Labour and all the other parties would have struggled.
This is what is just weird about the whole thing. Other than the social care stuff, which they quickly rowed back on, they haven't changed tack or attacked Labour properly at all. There hasn't really been a campaign at all.
Here's a theory.
Sir Lynton's crap, cf the 2005 general election campaign and Zac Goldsmith's Mayoral campaign.
Winning the 2015 GE was down purely to Dave and George.
Im not the GO fan that you are but it is certainly a plausible explanation.
As an aside are you still helping out in the Don Valley and will you be posting your thoughts come 10.01pm Thursday as to how it went?
I plan to campaign in Don Valley Mon, Tues, Wed.
As for revealing my thoughts at 10.01pm on Thursday, no, I won't have sufficient info to make that call, and even if I did have that info, I wouldn't, that's something for Aaron to say.
In 2015, I spent six weeks campaigning in West Yorkshire (I took a sabbatical from work) so I had a pretty good feel of the campaign, plus in 2015, I had contacts at CCHQ who were quite generous (and accurate) what their private polling was showing.
Fair enough
Will you give us your thoughts as to how it has gone this time?
My experience is that that despite CPHQ's best efforts things have gone well on the ground-BUT that was before Friday (i am in Thanet S)
Speaking of gaming the odious FPTP system, it's a shame we can't start a scheme to move voter registrations from safe seats to marginals. It's technically illegal, but candidates get away with something similar, pretending they live in constituencies when they don't... (Reminds me there's been a small kerfuffle in Beeston regarding Soubry's residential status.)
There already is such gaming of the system . It is called holiday homes .
And overseas voters who can choose in which constituency to vote.
Isn't your vote in the last constituency you were registered to vote in as a UK resident?
You have to declare your last address in the UK. You don't have to have been registered there. You can make it up. A friend of a friend that you stayed with before you left the UK.
On the online form it asks:
What was the UK address where you were last registered to vote?
This is where your vote will be counted in elections.
You're right. I take it back. Not sure that they would check with a register twelve years ago for example. Perhaps I'm a bit paranoid about Tory dirty tricks!
Speaking of gaming the odious FPTP system, it's a shame we can't start a scheme to move voter registrations from safe seats to marginals. It's technically illegal, but candidates get away with something similar, pretending they live in constituencies when they don't... (Reminds me there's been a small kerfuffle in Beeston regarding Soubry's residential status.)
There already is such gaming of the system . It is called holiday homes .
And overseas voters who can choose in which constituency to vote.
Isn't your vote in the last constituency you were registered to vote in as a UK resident?
Indeed, you can't just pick one out!
Test out registering as an overseas voter. I just did. You simply declare where your last residence in the UK was , i.e. you just pick one out.
Don't they actually check that you were previously registered there? The online form can't do that.
They don't ask where you were previously registered. They simply ask where you last lived in the UK.
What was the UK address where you were last registered to vote?
This is where your vote will be counted in elections.
I am going to be fascinated to hear what Crosby and Messina have been up to for the past month.
The fact that Crosby has been quoted off the record to the media a few weeks ago tells you that he's not happy how things are going.
He never briefed against Dave. If you read the 2015 book by Tim Ross, you can tell Cameron and his team listened to what Crosby said and then did it.
The thing that is confusing to me is that is is all silent since then. Not just from Crosby, but really the Tories. They haven't run a campaign, they have run a "let Jezza spout whatever he wants and we won't attack it".
What makes this campaign by Mrs May so bad is that she had the advantage in calling the snap election, you would have thought the manifesto had been focused group/message tested.
Whilst Labour and all the other parties would have struggled.
This is what is just weird about the whole thing. Other than the social care stuff, which they quickly rowed back on, they haven't changed tack or attacked Labour properly at all. There hasn't really been a campaign at all.
Here's a theory.
Sir Lynton's crap, cf the 2005 general election campaign and Zac Goldsmith's Mayoral campaign.
Winning the 2015 GE was down purely to Dave and George.
There isn't really a good creepy quasi racist angle for Crosby to really sink his teeth into this time round.
"The effect of Brexit on the British economy is impossible to overstate. It risks the return of a hard border in Ireland, billions of lost revenue from trade with Europe, countrywide regulatory chaos, travel obstacles, and countless other issues, including aircraft flight paths and animal rights. It is arguably the biggest policy decision taken by a British government in the postwar era. May still refuses to discuss any of it, instead relying on her absurdist mantra that “Brexit means Brexit” and she intends 'to make a success of it'"
Mr. Mark, there may be enormo-haddock at undisclosed locations around the United Kingdom. I would advise refraining from adverting your desire for fishy romance too loudly.
On the poll: when was the last time the top two parties got such a large combined share? Lib Dems looking shaky than a lamb in a butcher's shop.
Comments
I still think a majority is on, but instead of 100 plus you could be looking at something in the 50's. It should never have been that close.
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Tories quietly U-turn on big promise to build a "generation of social housing"
Having been a grumpy git for years regarding the Facebooky phone-pickers called "young people", I will be OVERJOYED if this demographic gets off its butt and delivers the country the best PM we will have had since Clement Attlee.
Thirty years ago, Jeremy Corbyn was wrong about Northern Ireland. Other failings of the Labour manifesto - such as doing little to reverse Tory trade union laws, not promising to raise inheritance tax and income tax for the rich as high as we might wish, backing a replacement for Trident, not clearly denouncing the existence of the fascist regime called Israel, and not attacking the private schools in any other way than making them charge VAT - can be put down to the compromises Corbyn has had to make with scumbags to get where he is. If politics is the art of compromise, he has performed superbly. If he is obliged to make a deal with Nicola Sturgeon, and perhaps also with Tim Farron, to form a government, I have full confidence that he will. His competence leaves thug-liar-buffoons like Boris Johnson, mere buffoons like Michael Fallon, and empty sloganeers like Theresa May, completely in the shade. Want a good "deal" with EU27? Corbyn is our man.
This is why the Tories hate his guts. James Callagan, John Smith, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Margaret Beckett, Ed Miliband - none received anything like this amount of hatred. Not even Neil Kinnock did, at the height of the Ice Maiden's reign of terror. Harold Wilson was hated, but behind the hatred for him was the visceral and secular Tory hate for British men who dig coal out of the ground. Michael Foot was hated for his principles, but as a past president of the Oxford Union not on the same level as Jeremy Corbyn. Denis Healey promised to tax the rich "until the pips squeak", but he didn't really mean it and deep down the rich knew it.
The Tories f***ed up with Brexit, they f***ed up with calling this election, their cabinet has the putrid smell that John Major's cabinet had before the 1997 election...and I remain optimistic.
Hole the Tory campaign with a couple of big propaganda hits (white, grey, black, whatever works) between now and Tuesday - or even a single enormous one - and we've won.
Praise Marx and pass the ammunition.
Plus 2008 was a vote against the government of Gordon Brown.
2012 I'm not so sure, perhaps it was seen as a vote for Dave
Also, Crosby helped Boris win in a Labour city.
Also it isn't just Crosby for the GE, it is Messina as well. Last time, if all the stories are to be believed they were ahead of the game, targeting the right people and they were active in the campaign with the "in your pocket" and Dave on the stump waving his no money left letter.
This time, there is literally nothing, despite the narrowing polls.
I just find it all really really odd.
Whether in reality it is that on the ground is another matter.
Would be interested in thoughts on his 2005 performance with Michael Howard. I don't think that exactly captured the mood of the nation either, and showed similar deficiencies to what happened with Zac. But what would trend performance have been for the Tories (or for an opposition in general, at that stage)? And what would "trend with Michael Howard" have been? (I quite like the guy actually, but the answer to that is presumably "a bit lower".)
Is there any account anywhere of what might be going on???
Sir Lynton had two years prep, and Jim Messina one year to prep for GE2015.
This time they've had around two months.
I know for a fact, they messaged tested the crap out of 'Long term economic plan' and that's why it worked.
'Strong and stable' hasn't been quite as successful.
Once you are at those levels you have a point of maximum impact on your return.
As an aside are you still helping out in the Don Valley and will you be posting your thoughts come 10.01pm Thursday as to how it went?
To sacrifice everything to be so pro the EU is not consistent with liberal thinking, especially when it means rejecting the democratic referendum vote to leave the EU.
The current Lib Dem leadership has dumped its free trade principles and its democratic principles. Lib Dem voters are a better educated group - the kind of people who notice these things.
(3)No person shall—:
...
(d)directly or indirectly induce a voter to display his ballot paper after he has marked it so as to make known to any person the name of the candidate for whom he has or has not voted.
What was the UK address where you were last registered to vote?
This is where your vote will be counted in elections.
As for revealing my thoughts at 10.01pm on Thursday, no, I won't have sufficient info to make that call, and even if I did have that info, I wouldn't, that's something for Aaron to say.
In 2015, I spent six weeks campaigning in West Yorkshire (I took a sabbatical from work) so I had a pretty good feel of the campaign, plus in 2015, I had contacts at CCHQ who were quite generous (and accurate) what their private polling was showing.
How amusing it would be if this little stunt causes his anonymity to finally be lost!
Apparently she wants to own this campaign and victory, so she could say she won the South West, not Dave this time.
Nice to know more than one PBer can do it.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/10/breaking-manifesto-promise-stupid-david-cameron-appears-criticise/
If you walk around your local town as I did today and see young people on their phones, shopping, chatting rubbish etc you know that after years of not voting they are not suddenly going to be turned on by a stuffy and dull 67 year old man, you have to remember many, many young people have conservative views on crime, immigration etc, they will reflect the view of their parents but at the same time are unlikely to be voting. Young people are not political activists, this is not a revolution and when I hear on PB or UKpolling that "oh my son and his friends are voting Corbyn" , thats because they're the kids of highly politicised middle class nerds - they are the minority! The surge is just not happening on the scale the pollsters think and it will not transfer to the ballot box. I am sure of that. I imagine Tory polling is also sure of that. The fact remain lost the referendum will only have served to increase those thinking 'what's the point' rather than keeping them engaged.
On top of this I'm not so much looking at 18-24 data when looking at Corbyn's vote as 18-30s being a more realistic example of high Corbyn support but mediocre turnout. Problem is I don't think we should be looking just at the 65+ group for a high Tory vote and turnout, it's almost the same with the over 55s too. As we know for sheer numbers alone 55+ on numbers alone we have around 5 or 6 million more people in there are in the 18-30 group.
So in summary Labour's polling is relying on (for the first time ever) huge waves of youth voters turning out at levels above the EU ref, and not just in safe middle class Tory seats or safe Labour university seats. Meanwhile the Tories have the over 55s who always turn out, with a more polarised choice than ever, a safe inoffensive conservative or a throwback from those bad economic years in the 1970s. I think they are going to turnout bigly for May despite her weak campaign and will hold the key to a very reasonable Con majority.
https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/871002717149331457
They take the integrity of the roll seriously and you'd be given pretty short shrift if you tried to fraudulently acquire a vote you weren't entitled to.
EDIT Actually they do ask. Apologies.
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/870933949895278592
I just got one of them there Conservative attack ads on my Youtube videos. Targeting a cybernat in Edinburgh East has got to be a spectacular waste of cash.
https://twitter.com/juliemarson/status/869876573318647810
Will you give us your thoughts as to how it has gone this time?
My experience is that that despite CPHQ's best efforts things have gone well on the ground-BUT that was before Friday (i am in Thanet S)
Best prepare for a long evening.
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Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+1)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)
GRN: 1% (-)
(via @ComRes)
This is where your vote will be counted in elections.
Postcode
https://www.registertovote.service.gov.uk/register-to-vote/overseas/last-uk-address
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/02/theresa-mays-self-inflicted-election/amp/
"The effect of Brexit on the British economy is impossible to overstate. It risks the return of a hard border in Ireland, billions of lost revenue from trade with Europe, countrywide regulatory chaos, travel obstacles, and countless other issues, including aircraft flight paths and animal rights. It is arguably the biggest policy decision taken by a British government in the postwar era. May still refuses to discuss any of it, instead relying on her absurdist mantra that “Brexit means Brexit” and she intends 'to make a success of it'"
On the poll: when was the last time the top two parties got such a large combined share? Lib Dems looking shaky than a lamb in a butcher's shop.