When people think of an Atomic Bomb, they think of the pictures of the ones used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. Big circular things, but those were prototypes only. In the 1980's the Soviet Russians came up with a smaller version, and remember this technology is 40 odd years out of date (And as at 2014, there were still 84 of these unaccounted for). These make Submarine missile systems obsolete, how can you retaliate with a nuclear missile strike against a terrorist underground organisation, or a foreign governments "deniable" black op, let alone let loose a first strike? : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUBb4cunagA
Those are what my example this morning was based on: ISIS getting hold of 10 of those 84.
So basically the plot of the last year's Lee Child novel...
Conservative canvassers on here are consistently saying that their vote is up. Labour canvassers on here are consistently saying their vote is up. Of course, one or both groups might be lying or allowing hope to triumph over actuality, but the simplest explanation is that both are right, which ties in with the polls.
I think both are true in Torbay. Tories are munching UKIP, Labour are getting the benefit of a tactical unwind from the LibDems, whose second Referendum idea is playing badly with those who want Brexit.
The something for everyone election. Unless you are a Lib Dem perhaps.
I think 'except the Liberal Democrats' should be understood in all references to this election.
Liar liar the The T May song is number 4 in the charts number ,2 in the I tune down loads.Some going to say it is not been played on radio stations.
People still listen to music via the radio?
The song has been all over my social media feeds. No one under the age of 35 (surely?) is seriously getting their music mainly from radio, so it not being played on their doesn't matter. As long as it's avaliable on Apple Music or Spotify, that's all that matters.
People who drive?
I never listen to the radio in the car....
Just a thing about music, remember witch is dead when Thatcher died, then all the survey's said she was up there with best pm, more popular than when actually in power, etc etc etc.
A number 1 record now sells about 20-30,000 copies a week. A couple of decades ago it was around 100,000. Most of those sales are 99p downloads from two clicks on a smartphone. It's much, much easier to game the charts today than it ever used to be.
The area I was in was mostly WWC Council house and lower middle class 1930s. Plenty of UKIP and Labour to Blue switching. Very little evidence this is a Labour seat. A more posters for Gavin but very few in total.
Hitchin and Harpenden taking well to their new black MP to be. Rather a change from Peter Lilley I expect.
I think your cut and paste has gone a bit awry - for clarity, Concanvasser was in Luton South, not MarqueeMark!
Thanks Mark! Hope Torbay is as sunny as Bedfordshire today.
Spectacular - the Torbay airshow today - Red Arrows, Lancaster. Spitfire, Hurricane, Typhoon.... How much more of Brexit can you get in the air?
What was the new Reds display like? The rumour was that they completely changed around over the winter.
The area I was in was mostly WWC Council house and lower middle class 1930s. Plenty of UKIP and Labour to Blue switching. Very little evidence this is a Labour seat. A more posters for Gavin but very few in total.
Hitchin and Harpenden taking well to their new black MP to be. Rather a change from Peter Lilley I expect.
I think your cut and paste has gone a bit awry - for clarity, Concanvasser was in Luton South, not MarqueeMark!
Thanks Mark! Hope Torbay is as sunny as Bedfordshire today.
Spectacular - the Torbay airshow today - Red Arrows, Lancaster. Spitfire, Hurricane, Typhoon.... How much more of Brexit can you get in the air?
Assuming you meant this Typhoon, not this Typhoon, you couldn't have picked a more Remainian aircraft.
Liar liar the The T May song is number 4 in the charts number ,2 in the I tune down loads.Some going to say it is not been played on radio stations.
People still listen to music via the radio?
The song has been all over my social media feeds. No one under the age of 35 (surely?) is seriously getting their music mainly from radio, so it not being played on their doesn't matter. As long as it's avaliable on Apple Music or Spotify, that's all that matters.
Why are you so intolerant towards anyone who chooses to do things the old-fashioned way? I still listen to the radio, watch VHS videos and DVDs, play computer games on a ZX Spectrum, and do word processing on a Sinclair QL.
The Tories clearly felt they had a huge lead. May would not have called the election otherwise. The local election results pretty much confirmed it existed. After the Tories win very comfortably next week the puzzle will be why some polls detected such a strong Labour surge.
This is likely to be what happens in my opinion.
Just back from a morning in Luton South. The demographic their is stacked against the Blues but they are convinced it is close and Labour appears worried.
Stevenage expect to increase their majority with no worries.
Luton S and Stevenage are where we should pick up signs of a Labour surge. They are not there.
This is the stuff we need to hear about - last time around, informed anecdote was way better than the polling.
Just back from a street stall in Barnes. LibDem and Tory stalls set up next to one another. LibDems handing out dozens of orange stickers. Barnes High Street is a walking parade of advertisements for the LibDems. Tories don't have any stickers. They were very slow to get up garden stakes too. One Tory activist said to me "it is as if the LibDems knew about the snap election and we didn't".
I shook hands with Zac and asked him how he felt. A microsecond of hesitation then "Very good. How about you?". Speaking with Tory activists, they are more anxious than us. But who knows?
Incidentally my cover is now blown with Zac. He thought I was a supporter.
Over the winter I did get emails from LD HQ talking about a spring surprise election, so there must have been a degree of contingency planning. More than the Tories by the look of it!
Betting post So I need to find a bookmaker till take odds on an independent winning a seat.
Rochford and Southend East - James Duddridge is in big trouble according to canvass returns. Southend AE is closing and Tory mp is letting it go through. In southend there are around 150 vote independent signs and I need a bookie to take a bet
Duddridge must be one of the MPs to be campaigning everyday in Essex. THe reason the independent could win is because was he was expected to be he Tory candidate once Duddridge stood down. He was leader of southend of council so has big name recognition. Independent is taking a Lot of Tory votes
Conservative canvassers on here are consistently saying that their vote is up. Labour canvassers on here are consistently saying their vote is up. Of course, one or both groups might be lying or allowing hope to triumph over actuality, but the simplest explanation is that both are right, which ties in with the polls.
Reports from canvassers are complete bunk and should be ignored. They hear what they want to hear and report what they want to have experienced. In 1997 there were Tory canvassers proclaiming they would retain seats that New Labour seized with majorities in the thousands.
Whereas the polls had NOM in 2015 and Remain in 2016
Canvassing that compares with previous canvasses is normally quite reliable (with exceptions which we all know about!), because the same people will tell the truth to the same extent each time, and any change is probably genuine. Canvassing where there is no previous data is not useful for predictions.
However, assessing degrees of enthusiasm is very difficult. "I'll vote for you but..." can topple over on election day. Likewise "I usually vote for you" and similar evasions. and assessing movements between the other parties is almost impossible unless voluntarily offered - how do you interpret a "not you, mate" repeated at successive elections? Similarly,"I'm still thinking about it" usually means "not voting".
Off to see Jeremy, who is speaking in Broxtowe today (Labour swing required 4%).
My seat (St Ives) is now a toss-up: CON 41, LD 40. The LDs are no nowhere near anywhere else in the county except in North Cornwall where they are 7 points behind.
Edinburgh West a toss-up between SNP and LD (33 apiece); the LDs two points adrift in E Dunbartonshire. Bath another toss-up (tied at 35 with Con).
North Norfolk a toss-up but LDs lose by 1 point at the moment, and hold Carshalton by 1. Olney has a 2-point cushion in Richmond Park. Hallam leaning Labour by 7 points, Leeds NW looks well gone (by 12). Farron two points ahead of Con.
The model projects 10 seats but the apparent closeness of so many races is reflected in the 95% confidence band of 3-18 seats. Ashcroft reckons 5 LD seats in all of his turnout scenarios.
The area I was in was mostly WWC Council house and lower middle class 1930s. Plenty of UKIP and Labour to Blue switching. Very little evidence this is a Labour seat. A more posters for Gavin but very few in total.
Hitchin and Harpenden taking well to their new black MP to be. Rather a change from Peter Lilley I expect.
I think your cut and paste has gone a bit awry - for clarity, Concanvasser was in Luton South, not MarqueeMark!
Thanks Mark! Hope Torbay is as sunny as Bedfordshire today.
Spectacular - the Torbay airshow today - Red Arrows, Lancaster. Spitfire, Hurricane, Typhoon.... How much more of Brexit can you get in the air?
Assuming you meant this Typhoon, not this Typhoon, you couldn't have picked a more Remainian aircraft.
Excellent if the enemy still have me109's and Heinkels
Conservative canvassers on here are consistently saying that their vote is up. Labour canvassers on here are consistently saying their vote is up. Of course, one or both groups might be lying or allowing hope to triumph over actuality, but the simplest explanation is that both are right, which ties in with the polls.
Reports from canvassers are complete bunk and should be ignored. They hear what they want to hear and report what they want to have experienced. In 1997 there were Tory canvassers proclaiming they would retain seats that New Labour seized with majorities in the thousands.
No information should be ignored. Some requires more scepticism than others.
Lab canvassers saying vote up does not tally with yesterday's Newstatesman review of the Lab campaign. Dozens of Labour seats set to fall is the summary from the ground.
Of course, maybe something has changed in last few days.
Liar liar the The T May song is number 4 in the charts number ,2 in the I tune down loads.Some going to say it is not been played on radio stations.
People still listen to music via the radio?
The song has been all over my social media feeds. No one under the age of 35 (surely?) is seriously getting their music mainly from radio, so it not being played on their doesn't matter. As long as it's avaliable on Apple Music or Spotify, that's all that matters.
Fox jr just uses Spotify, and I often Spotify too, but I also like BBC 6 Music, Jack FM, and we often have Smooth FM on in our waiting area. The latter drives me mad because the playlist is the same dozen songs!
How about a playlist for the election?
I nominate:
Devil Woman (Cliff Richard) Union Man (the Strawbs) Elected (Alice Cooper) Its a Sin (Pet Shop Boys) Enola Gay (OMD) Cruella De Ville (Disney)
and for the UKIPpers : We've Gotta Get out of this Place (The Animals)
When people think of an Atomic Bomb, they think of the pictures of the ones used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. Big circular things, but those were prototypes only. In the 1980's the Soviet Russians came up with a smaller version, and remember this technology is 40 odd years out of date (And as at 2014, there were still 84 of these unaccounted for). These make Submarine missile systems obsolete, how can you retaliate with a nuclear missile strike against a terrorist underground organisation, or a foreign governments "deniable" black op, let alone let loose a first strike? : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUBb4cunagA
Those are what my example this morning was based on: ISIS getting hold of 10 of those 84.
Jeremy Corbyn and his outright refusal to use Nuclear Weapons against a country/organisation in retaliation should they attack us is barking mad.
He is basically saying it is alright for them to kill us but wrong for us to kill them in retaliation. The man is deranged.
Obviously I don't want to see a nuclear war but a deterrent is only useful if the threat is real.
Corbyn and defence related issues really show up how untrustworthy and dogmatic his approach to politics remains. If any industry other than the arms industry was highlighted as unacceptable and exports should be restricted he would be ranting about the "economics of the madhouse" yet he espouses policies and proposals that will throw thousands if not tens of thousands of peoples jobs on a bonfire of ideological vanity. I just hope those companies and individuals affected by his proposals realise his policies mean the destruction of working families and their prosperity.
Conservative canvassers on here are consistently saying that their vote is up. Labour canvassers on here are consistently saying their vote is up. Of course, one or both groups might be lying or allowing hope to triumph over actuality, but the simplest explanation is that both are right, which ties in with the polls.
Reports from canvassers are complete bunk and should be ignored. They hear what they want to hear and report what they want to have experienced. In 1997 there were Tory canvassers proclaiming they would retain seats that New Labour seized with majorities in the thousands.
Whereas the polls had NOM in 2015 and Remain in 2016
Canvassing that compares with previous canvasses is normally quite reliable (with exceptions which we all know about!), because the same people will tell the truth to the same extent each time, and any change is probably genuine. Canvassing where there is no previous data is not useful for predictions.
However, assessing degrees of enthusiasm is very difficult. "I'll vote for you but..." can topple over on election day. Likewise "I usually vote for you" and similar evasions. and assessing movements between the other parties is almost impossible unless voluntarily offered - how do you interpret a "not you, mate" repeated at successive elections? Similarly,"I'm still thinking about it" usually means "not voting".
Off to see Jeremy, who is speaking in Broxtowe today (Labour swing required 4%).
Broxtowe seems good value at 12/1. Soubry is not going to be tasty to kipper voters.
When people think of an Atomic Bomb, they think of the pictures of the ones used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. Big circular things, but those were prototypes only. In the 1980's the Soviet Russians came up with a smaller version, and remember this technology is 40 odd years out of date (And as at 2014, there were still 84 of these unaccounted for). These make Submarine missile systems obsolete, how can you retaliate with a nuclear missile strike against a terrorist underground organisation, or a foreign governments "deniable" black op, let alone let loose a first strike? : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUBb4cunagA
Those are what my example this morning was based on: ISIS getting hold of 10 of those 84.
Jeremy Corbyn and his outright refusal to use Nuclear Weapons against a country/organisation in retaliation should they attack us is barking mad.
He is basically saying it is alright for them to kill us but wrong for us to kill them in retaliation. The man is deranged.
Obviously I don't want to see a nuclear war but a deterrent is only useful if the threat is real.
Corbyn and defence related issues really show up how untrustworthy and dogmatic his approach to politics remains. If any industry other than the arms industry was highlighted as unacceptable and exports should be restricted he would be ranting about the "economics of the madhouse" yet he espouses policies and proposals that will throw thousands if not tens of thousands of peoples jobs on a bonfire of ideological vanity. I just hope those companies and individuals affected by his proposals realise his policies mean the destruction of working families and their prosperity.
The thing is I can see debate over is trident the best nuclear deterrent etc and is very very unlikely scenario, but with Jezza it means no drone attacks against friends, sorry terrorists, dithering about how to respond to what is a real possibility (in fact I think it will happen at some point in the near future) which is a maundering mass gun attack, etc etc etc.
It is absolutely bonkers.
It is part of the reason why Corbgasm absolutely scares me shitless, rather than say Miliband or even Brown, I didn't think they were the best of rubbish bunch, but I wasn't scared of them being in power.
When people think of an Atomic Bomb, they think of the pictures of the ones used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. Big circular things, but those were prototypes only. In the 1980's the Soviet Russians came up with a smaller version, and remember this technology is 40 odd years out of date (And as at 2014, there were still 84 of these unaccounted for). These make Submarine missile systems obsolete, how can you retaliate with a nuclear missile strike against a terrorist underground organisation, or a foreign governments "deniable" black op, let alone let loose a first strike? : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUBb4cunagA
Nukes do not last forever, and require regular reworking. Suitcase bombs that went missing two or three decades ago would be good now only as a source of material for a dirty bomb, and there are much better places to get hold of much worse stuff (even in hospitals).
Dirty bombs are much more likely to be used against us than 'proper' nukes. But as I said earlier today, biological weapons worry me much more.
Betting post So I need to find a bookmaker till take odds on an independent winning a seat.
Rochford and Southend East - James Duddridge is in big trouble according to canvass returns. Southend AE is closing and Tory mp is letting it go through. In southend there are around 150 vote independent signs and I need a bookie to take a bet
Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power offer 250/1 on the independent Ron Woodley taking the seat.
And even if you had not misread it, it is hardly good news that a large group of voters have such a low registration rate. Surely we all want to live in a democracy?
The area I was in was mostly WWC Council house and lower middle class 1930s. Plenty of UKIP and Labour to Blue switching. Very little evidence this is a Labour seat. A more posters for Gavin but very few in total.
Hitchin and Harpenden taking well to their new black MP to be. Rather a change from Peter Lilley I expect.
I think your cut and paste has gone a bit awry - for clarity, Concanvasser was in Luton South, not MarqueeMark!
Thanks Mark! Hope Torbay is as sunny as Bedfordshire today.
Spectacular - the Torbay airshow today - Red Arrows, Lancaster. Spitfire, Hurricane, Typhoon.... How much more of Brexit can you get in the air?
Assuming you meant this Typhoon, not this Typhoon, you couldn't have picked a more Remainian aircraft.
Excellent if the enemy still have me109's and Heinkels
This is a great read - when a Spitfire went up against an English Electric Lightning F3....
Betting post So I need to find a bookmaker till take odds on an independent winning a seat.
Rochford and Southend East - James Duddridge is in big trouble according to canvass returns. Southend AE is closing and Tory mp is letting it go through. In southend there are around 150 vote independent signs and I need a bookie to take a bet
Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power offer 250/1 on the independent Ron Woodley taking the seat.
Favourite longshot bias suggests that is probably too short.
It's the free tuition fees bribe vs lib dems jacked them up what done it.
Truly terrible for Greens. Their core constituency: kids who will live to see wide scale climate change damage.
There has been no increase in world atmospheric temeratures in nearly 20 years. Several different sateklite based observations show this. Our climate is driven by that big yellow thing in the sky. There is nothing you can do about that. Polution is different but that is not climate.
I see you know more than a vast majority of scientists in the world. I bow to your greatness...
I am not quoting vested interest scientific opinion. I am pointing out observational measurement fact. FACT. How you manage to type with your head in the sand defeats me.
The Tories clearly felt they had a huge lead. May would not have called the election otherwise. The local election results pretty much confirmed it existed. After the Tories win very comfortably next week the puzzle will be why some polls detected such a strong Labour surge.
This is likely to be what happens in my opinion.
Just back from a morning in Luton South. The demographic their is stacked against the Blues but they are convinced it is close and Labour appears worried.
Stevenage expect to increase their majority with no worries.
Luton S and Stevenage are where we should pick up signs of a Labour surge. They are not there.
This is the stuff we need to hear about - last time around, informed anecdote was way better than the polling.
The area I was in was mostly WWC Council house and lower middle class 1930s. Plenty of UKIP and Labour to Blue switching. Very little evidence this is a Labour seat. A more posters for Gavin but very few in total.
Hitchin and Harpenden taking well to their new black MP to be. Rather a change from Peter Lilley I expect.
Bim went to Eton & Oxford as opposed to Peter who went to Dulwich & Cambridge, so apart from people who can't get beyond skin colour I can't see why it would be much of a change.
Are there any Labour supporters prepared to say that (even if they don't think it can possibly happen) that, possibly outside of a Tory landslide, the worst possible scenario for them is A Labour majority. Having to take responsibility for Brexit, with a negotiating position at odds with most of their Brexit supporters, and a totally unaffordable electoral platform which in large part they will feel compelled to deliver? Could be at 10% in the polls within a year?
And even if you had not misread it, it is hardly good news that a large group of voters have such a low registration rate. Surely we all want to live in a democracy?
Well, yes, but an inbuilt bias towards getting the right answer is surely a bonus?
And 91% is true? None of these numbers are accurate. Lots of people of all ages are missing off the registers.
Ofcourse but young people are much more likely to guess they are registred when they are not. Something like 90+% of oldies are registered so the difference between how many oldies estimate they are registered but aren't is going to be a much, much smaller gap.
ICM past weight filter wont help for this group because many of the 18-24 wont even have a history of voting. ICM have to rely on what the young claim they will do.
And even if you had not misread it, it is hardly good news that a large group of voters have such a low registration rate. Surely we all want to live in a democracy?
Well, yes, but an inbuilt bias towards getting the right answer is surely a bonus?
Few people consider the disenfranchisement of 0-17 year olds means we don't live in a democracy, and the ability to get yourself registered seems a very low bar to help filter out those who never reached the standard the age requirement is imperfectly trying to set.
And 91% is true? None of these numbers are accurate. Lots of people of all ages are missing off the registers.
Ofcourse but young people are much more likely to guess they are registred when they are not. Something like 90+% of oldies are registered so the difference between how many oldies estimate they are registered but aren't is going to be a much, much smaller gap.
ICM past weight filter wont help for this group because many of the 18-24 wont even have a history of voting. ICM have to rely on what the young claim they will do.
I am lost, what does "Just getting back to pre-IER levels gets the 18-24s to around 75% registered" mean? What is IER? And doesn't this thing of writing essays on twitter and chopping them up into 10 tweets kind of defeat the purpose?
Only the politically engaged take part in polls! Forget the youth "surge"!
Though the polls that weight according to past voting should account for this in their weighting.
18-24 year olds on the whole don't have past voting history, that is the problem.
My wobbles have gone.
only the under 20's would not have a history for GE, and only the under 19's for the referendum. Around 80% would have been able to have had a vote before.
And 91% is true? None of these numbers are accurate. Lots of people of all ages are missing off the registers.
Ofcourse but young people are much more likely to guess they are registred when they are not. Something like 90+% of oldies are registered so the difference between how many oldies estimate they are registered but aren't is going to be a much, much smaller gap.
ICM past weight filter wont help for this group because many of the 18-24 wont even have a history of voting. ICM have to rely on what the young claim they will do.
I am lost, what does "Just getting back to pre-IER levels gets the 18-24s to around 75% registered" mean? What is IER? And doesn't this thing of writing essays on twitter and chopping them up into 10 tweets kind of defeat the purpose?
Only the politically engaged take part in polls! Forget the youth "surge"!
Though the polls that weight according to past voting should account for this in their weighting.
18-24 year olds on the whole don't have past voting history, that is the problem.
My wobbles have gone.
That data has nevertheless got to be suspect. Unregistered people are hard to contactt (being transient etc) and almost certainly less likely to be bothered with answering a pollster's questions, either in the street, at the door, by telephone or online.
So I do not believe that "X% of people who replied to pollsters" is at all the same as "X% of people" when it comes to measuring the extent of non-registration,
When people think of an Atomic Bomb, they think of the pictures of the ones used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. Big circular things, but those were prototypes only. In the 1980's the Soviet Russians came up with a smaller version, and remember this technology is 40 odd years out of date (And as at 2014, there were still 84 of these unaccounted for). These make Submarine missile systems obsolete, how can you retaliate with a nuclear missile strike against a terrorist underground organisation, or a foreign governments "deniable" black op, let alone let loose a first strike? : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUBb4cunagA
Those are what my example this morning was based on: ISIS getting hold of 10 of those 84.
Jeremy Corbyn and his outright refusal to use Nuclear Weapons against a country/organisation in retaliation should they attack us is barking mad.
He is basically saying it is alright for them to kill us but wrong for us to kill them in retaliation. The man is deranged.
Obviously I don't want to see a nuclear war but a deterrent is only useful if the threat is real.
Corbyn and defence related issues really show up how untrustworthy and dogmatic his approach to politics remains. If any industry other than the arms industry was highlighted as unacceptable and exports should be restricted he would be ranting about the "economics of the madhouse" yet he espouses policies and proposals that will throw thousands if not tens of thousands of peoples jobs on a bonfire of ideological vanity. I just hope those companies and individuals affected by his proposals realise his policies mean the destruction of working families and their prosperity.
The thing is I can see debate over is trident the best nuclear deterrent etc and is very very unlikely scenario, but with Jezza it means no drone attacks against friends, sorry terrorists, dithering about how to respond to what is a real possibility (in fact I think it will happen at some point in the near future) which is a maundering mass gun attack, etc etc etc.
It is absolutely bonkers.
It is part of the reason why Corbgasm absolutely scares me shitless, rather than say Miliband or even Brown, I didn't think they were the best of rubbish bunch, but I wasn't scared of them being in power.
I agree with you. Brown was incompetent and obsessed with Obama but he was not a threat to National security.
Ed Miliband, it could be argues would not have caused the political turmoil associated with Brexit.
Corbyn seems to value the lives of terrorists, hostile armies and lunatics more than the UK, their families and their prosperity. He is literally a menace to our society.
And 91% is true? None of these numbers are accurate. Lots of people of all ages are missing off the registers.
Ofcourse but young people are much more likely to guess they are registred when they are not. Something like 90+% of oldies are registered so the difference between how many oldies estimate they are registered but aren't is going to be a much, much smaller gap.
ICM past weight filter wont help for this group because many of the 18-24 wont even have a history of voting. ICM have to rely on what the young claim they will do.
I am lost, what does "Just getting back to pre-IER levels gets the 18-24s to around 75% registered" mean? What is IER? And doesn't this thing of writing essays on twitter and chopping them up into 10 tweets kind of defeat the purpose?
Individual Electoral Registration. Came in for the December 2015 electoral register. It saw the percentage of the population registered drop, mostly in the younger age groups. What the leaked electorate data seems to imply is, at least in some studenty constituencies, the numbers have only gone back up to the figures they were before IER.
And 91% is true? None of these numbers are accurate. Lots of people of all ages are missing off the registers.
Ofcourse but young people are much more likely to guess they are registred when they are not. Something like 90+% of oldies are registered so the difference between how many oldies estimate they are registered but aren't is going to be a much, much smaller gap.
ICM past weight filter wont help for this group because many of the 18-24 wont even have a history of voting. ICM have to rely on what the young claim they will do.
I am lost, what does "Just getting back to pre-IER levels gets the 18-24s to around 75% registered" mean? What is IER? And doesn't this thing of writing essays on twitter and chopping them up into 10 tweets kind of defeat the purpose?
Individual Electoral Registration. Came in for the December 2015 electoral register. It saw the percentage of voters registered drop, mostly in the younger age groups. What the leaked electorate data implies is, at least in some studenty constituencies the numbers have only gone back up to the figures they were before IER.
When people think of an Atomic Bomb, they think of the pictures of the ones used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. Big circular things, but those were prototypes only. In the 1980's the Soviet Russians came up with a smaller version, and remember this technology is 40 odd years out of date (And as at 2014, there were still 84 of these unaccounted for). These make Submarine missile systems obsolete, how can you retaliate with a nuclear missile strike against a terrorist underground organisation, or a foreign governments "deniable" black op, let alone let loose a first strike? : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUBb4cunagA
Those are what my example this morning was based on: ISIS getting hold of 10 of those 84.
Jeremy Corbyn and his outright refusal to use Nuclear Weapons against a country/organisation in retaliation should they attack us is barking mad.
He is basically saying it is alright for them to kill us but wrong for us to kill them in retaliation. The man is deranged.
Obviously I don't want to see a nuclear war but a deterrent is only useful if the threat is real.
Corbyn and defence related issues really show up how untrustworthy and dogmatic his approach to politics remains. If any industry other than the arms industry was highlighted as unacceptable and exports should be restricted he would be ranting about the "economics of the madhouse" yet he espouses policies and proposals that will throw thousands if not tens of thousands of peoples jobs on a bonfire of ideological vanity. I just hope those companies and individuals affected by his proposals realise his policies mean the destruction of working families and their prosperity.
He is not saying it is alright for them to kill us! That's crazy talk.
The two "thems" in your sentence are different. The first "them" is an evil bastard in an reinforced underground bunker. The second "them" are millions of innocent men, women and children going about their daily lives.
How many of those are students and are they still there next week?
And how many will vote Green. This is their no.2 target.
I think Labour should win easily...it is the Islington of the West Country. Loads of students and wealthy lefties and most people live totally detached from poorer parts of Bristol.
I plead guilty to political laziness of late. I haven't analysed the manifestos, I haven't watched any interviews and I'm not on twitter. I'm irritated by Jeremy Corbyn. It's been hard for me to pin down exactly why. There's the ambiguity over his stance on the IRA, there's the narrow-minded left wing values and more. But I think I've finally worked out what is so frustrating about him. It's the laziness. I know there'll be those who talk about how he's up at 6 in the morning or some such hour, off on protest marches in the pouring rain and meeting all sorts of people who feel politically marginalised. But the truth is that's his hobby, so it's not really hard work at all. Nick Palmer mentioned the other day how Corbyn would spend hours at constituency surgeries making sure to deal with everyone who wanted to see him. So why is it so hard to believe he'd be prepared to sit through boring meetings reading tedious papers which is what governing must involve? Presumably people do it because they have a vision for change that they think makes it worthwhile. Does Corbyn actually care enough about changing things that he'd be happy to do the same thing? I'm not convinced. If so why doesn't he seem to have memorised any detail - if there is any - about his plans. Doesn't he realise that if you are an opposition and you yourself have spent an entire career as a backbench rebel and you are proposing a bold radical new direction, there is double the pressure to make sure everything adds up. Lots of people accused Diane Abbott of being stupid for not knowing the police policy costings. But she (unlike Corbyn) is a Cambridge graduate. Anyone who has seen her on TV over the years knows she isn't dumb. No their dirty little secret is their laziness. They're just having fun, or part of a feel good political therapy movement. But they aren't really bothered about changing things.
Scotty's customary Pavlovian response when he's reminded of the bigots, racists and fruitcakes that are his fellow travellers, and in some cases, elected representatives.
Though tbf to the Loyalists, at least they're not plastic Yoons.
How many of those are students and are they still there next week?
Enough
As I stated below, in Bristol West I don't even think he needs the student vote to be there. I think they will win it easily, as the lefties there aren't going to vote Lib Dem and Corbyn has shifted labour so far left that he has parked his electric eco friendly van all over the Green's lawn.
Betting post So I need to find a bookmaker till take odds on an independent winning a seat.
Rochford and Southend East - James Duddridge is in big trouble according to canvass returns. Southend AE is closing and Tory mp is letting it go through. In southend there are around 150 vote independent signs and I need a bookie to take a bet
Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power offer 250/1 on the independent Ron Woodley taking the seat.
Favourite longshot bias suggests that is probably too short.
I wasn't recommending it, merely providing an information service.
I note that Sporting Index now have the Lib Dem spread down to 11.5-13.5.
Corbyn is in Hucknall, (Sherwood seat - Tory majority about 5K).
Hunting gains? interesting.
I am not sure Jezza campaign stops have had any pattern so far. I mean he spent significant time in ultra Tory safe seats. I think it is more about where they can get a decent crowd.
Betting post So I need to find a bookmaker till take odds on an independent winning a seat.
Rochford and Southend East - James Duddridge is in big trouble according to canvass returns. Southend AE is closing and Tory mp is letting it go through. In southend there are around 150 vote independent signs and I need a bookie to take a bet
Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power offer 250/1 on the independent Ron Woodley taking the seat.
Favourite longshot bias suggests that is probably too short.
I wasn't recommending it, merely providing an information service.
I note that Sporting Index now have the Lib Dem spread down to 11.5-13.5.
Of course, I was reminding the prospective punter of why bookies love to take bets like this.
Corbyn is in Hucknall, (Sherwood seat - Tory majority about 5K).
Hunting gains? interesting.
I am not sure Jezza campaign stops have had any pattern so far. I mean he spent significant time in ultra Tory safe seats. I think it is more about where they can get a decent crowd.
Perhaps it's all just being done to confuse the Tories? Or make them complacent that the Labour campaign haven't a clue?
Corbyn is in Hucknall, (Sherwood seat - Tory majority about 5K).
Hunting gains? interesting.
I am not sure Jezza campaign stops have had any pattern so far. I mean he spent significant time in ultra Tory safe seats. I think it is more about where they can get a decent crowd.
Perhaps it's all just being done to confuse the Tories?
They'll know its a bluff from NE Derbyshire/Mansfield canvass returns.
How many of those are students and are they still there next week?
Enough
Summer vac starts 12 june, but many/most undergrads may be done and dusted and buggered off already because they've finished exams/there is no one to teach them because dons are all marking exams
Betting post So I need to find a bookmaker till take odds on an independent winning a seat.
Rochford and Southend East - James Duddridge is in big trouble according to canvass returns. Southend AE is closing and Tory mp is letting it go through. In southend there are around 150 vote independent signs and I need a bookie to take a bet
Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power offer 250/1 on the independent Ron Woodley taking the seat.
Favourite longshot bias suggests that is probably too short.
The area I was in was mostly WWC Council house and lower middle class 1930s. Plenty of UKIP and Labour to Blue switching. Very little evidence this is a Labour seat. A more posters for Gavin but very few in total.
Hitchin and Harpenden taking well to their new black MP to be. Rather a change from Peter Lilley I expect.
I think your cut and paste has gone a bit awry - for clarity, Concanvasser was in Luton South, not MarqueeMark!
Thanks Mark! Hope Torbay is as sunny as Bedfordshire today.
Spectacular - the Torbay airshow today - Red Arrows, Lancaster. Spitfire, Hurricane, Typhoon.... How much more of Brexit can you get in the air?
Assuming you meant this Typhoon, not this Typhoon, you couldn't have picked a more Remainian aircraft.
I suspect looking at the rest of the list it was definitely the Hawker version.
How many of those are students and are they still there next week?
exams finihed yesterday according to the website official term ends June 12 but if they are like Aber and Lampeter students once their exams are over they are off
How many of those are students and are they still there next week?
exams finihed yesterday according to the website official term ends June 12 but if they are like Aber and Lampeter students once their exams are over they are off
It's not going to change the demography of the seat to anything other than a stonking Labour win there.
Corbyn is in Hucknall, (Sherwood seat - Tory majority about 5K).
Hunting gains? interesting.
Sherwood 2015 result: Con by 9 YouGov model: Con by 4 Ashcroft model: Con by 12-15 depending on turnout assumption
Con by 4. LOL Will be more than that.
The Channel 4 vox pop yesterday from nearby Mansfield suggested there were still plenty of Labour to Conservative switchers - to get Brexit through. Very, very coy though when asked if they would say there were now Conservatives!
I still reckon there's a lot of shy first-time Tories out there again this time.....
I would discount the Age-related turnout differential remaining as large as in 2015. There was nothing to enthuse young people in that campaign, Milifandom being almost entirely mythical. This time there is no denying a greater level of engagement.
It is probably reasonable to discount the scenario where elderly and young turnouts are the same.
That leaves us with the middle scenario and a projected majority of 12. Exactly the same!
Corbyn is in Hucknall, (Sherwood seat - Tory majority about 5K).
Hunting gains? interesting.
I am not sure Jezza campaign stops have had any pattern so far. I mean he spent significant time in ultra Tory safe seats. I think it is more about where they can get a decent crowd.
Perhaps it's all just being done to confuse the Tories? Or make them complacent that the Labour campaign haven't a clue?
that would be the greatest campaign ever.
"everything was done to troll Corsby and Messina, they were chasing ghosts. One minute, Knowsley, the next Hampshire NE. They never stood a chance".
Why doesn't Corbyn actually head to a marginal Labour MIGHT win. No chance in Sherwood.
Requires a 4.5% swing and no Lib/Green vote of any note to squeeze. And a 15% UKIP vote. What is he doing?
Perhaps, in spite of the polls, he's STILL electoral poison on the doorsteps. Perhaps he is only getting invites to turn up at the seats of those who nominated him. (Even then, I doubt Ma Beckett will be wanting a visit!) Perhaps he still has a fairly empty diary - just drops in wherever he needs to have a wee-break....
Comments
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/871000037542809600
So I need to find a bookmaker till take odds on an independent winning a seat.
Rochford and Southend East - James Duddridge is in big trouble according to canvass returns.
Southend AE is closing and Tory mp is letting it go through. In southend there are around 150 vote independent signs and I need a bookie to take a bet
Duddridge must be one of the MPs to be campaigning everyday in Essex. THe reason the independent could win is because was he was expected to be he Tory candidate once Duddridge stood down. He was leader of southend of council so has big name recognition. Independent is taking a Lot of Tory votes
However, assessing degrees of enthusiasm is very difficult. "I'll vote for you but..." can topple over on election day. Likewise "I usually vote for you" and similar evasions. and assessing movements between the other parties is almost impossible unless voluntarily offered - how do you interpret a "not you, mate" repeated at successive elections? Similarly,"I'm still thinking about it" usually means "not voting".
Off to see Jeremy, who is speaking in Broxtowe today (Labour swing required 4%).
Forecast LD gains: Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheltenham.
My seat (St Ives) is now a toss-up: CON 41, LD 40. The LDs are no nowhere near anywhere else in the county except in North Cornwall where they are 7 points behind.
Edinburgh West a toss-up between SNP and LD (33 apiece); the LDs two points adrift in E Dunbartonshire. Bath another toss-up (tied at 35 with Con).
North Norfolk a toss-up but LDs lose by 1 point at the moment, and hold Carshalton by 1. Olney has a 2-point cushion in Richmond Park. Hallam leaning Labour by 7 points, Leeds NW looks well gone (by 12). Farron two points ahead of Con.
The model projects 10 seats but the apparent closeness of so many races is reflected in the 95% confidence band of 3-18 seats. Ashcroft reckons 5 LD seats in all of his turnout scenarios.
Of course, maybe something has changed in last few days.
According to ICM 91% of yoof say they are registered but the electoral commision say it is only 66%!
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/871002688850468864
How about a playlist for the election?
I nominate:
Devil Woman (Cliff Richard)
Union Man (the Strawbs)
Elected (Alice Cooper)
Its a Sin (Pet Shop Boys)
Enola Gay (OMD)
Cruella De Ville (Disney)
and for the UKIPpers : We've Gotta Get out of this Place (The Animals)
He is basically saying it is alright for them to kill us but wrong for us to kill them in retaliation. The man is deranged.
Obviously I don't want to see a nuclear war but a deterrent is only useful if the threat is real.
Corbyn and defence related issues really show up how untrustworthy and dogmatic his approach to politics remains. If any industry other than the arms industry was highlighted as unacceptable and exports should be restricted he would be ranting about the "economics of the madhouse" yet he espouses policies and proposals that will throw thousands if not tens of thousands of peoples jobs on a bonfire of ideological vanity. I just hope those companies and individuals affected by his proposals realise his policies mean the destruction of working families and their prosperity.
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/871005245698134016
Only the politically engaged take part in polls! Forget the youth "surge"!
It is absolutely bonkers.
It is part of the reason why Corbgasm absolutely scares me shitless, rather than say Miliband or even Brown, I didn't think they were the best of rubbish bunch, but I wasn't scared of them being in power.
Dirty bombs are much more likely to be used against us than 'proper' nukes. But as I said earlier today, biological weapons worry me much more.
75% is still much lower then 91% .
https://defenceoftherealm.wordpress.com/2014/12/11/the-spitfire-the-lightning-how-two-british-icons-met-in-simulated-combat/
Lots of people of all ages are missing off the registers.
FACT.
How you manage to type with your head in the sand defeats me.
Hitchin and Harpenden taking well to their new black MP to be. Rather a change from Peter Lilley I expect.
Bim went to Eton & Oxford as opposed to Peter who went to Dulwich & Cambridge, so apart from people who can't get beyond skin colour I can't see why it would be much of a change.
ICM past weight filter wont help for this group because many of the 18-24 wont even have a history of voting. ICM have to rely on what the young claim they will do.
My wobbles have gone.
Whether they answer honestly is another matter.
So I do not believe that "X% of people who replied to pollsters" is at all the same as "X% of people" when it comes to measuring the extent of non-registration,
Ed Miliband, it could be argues would not have caused the political turmoil associated with Brexit.
Corbyn seems to value the lives of terrorists, hostile armies and lunatics more than the UK, their families and their prosperity. He is literally a menace to our society.
Election Data @election_data 4h4 hours ago
Replying to @jonadowning
just 35,423 more 18-29s than over 65s
The two "thems" in your sentence are different. The first "them" is an evil bastard in an
reinforced underground bunker. The second "them" are millions of innocent men, women and children going about their daily lives.
https://twitter.com/willie_rennie/status/870941448560103424
Though tbf to the Loyalists, at least they're not plastic Yoons.
On the subject of youngsters voting:
https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/870652626723119104
I note that Sporting Index now have the Lib Dem spread down to 11.5-13.5.
Why doesn't Corbyn actually head to a marginal Labour MIGHT win. No chance in Sherwood.
https://twitter.com/brianspanner1/status/869128144292384768
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/870989372283342848
2015 result: Con by 9
YouGov model: Con by 4
Ashcroft model: Con by 12-15 depending on turnout assumption
That's Malc's patch isn't it ?
2015 result: SNP 44, LD 28, Con 15
YouGov model: SNP 36, Con 27, LD 24
Ashcroft model: SNP 39, Con 31-32, LD 18
Reasonable cushion for Brendan O'Hara on these models.
edit: corrected YouGov figures
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/870950937732542465
I still reckon there's a lot of shy first-time Tories out there again this time.....
It is probably reasonable to discount the scenario where elderly and young turnouts are the same.
That leaves us with the middle scenario and a projected majority of 12. Exactly the same!
Supposedly a marginal.
"everything was done to troll Corsby and Messina, they were chasing ghosts. One minute, Knowsley, the next Hampshire NE. They never stood a chance".
"what about your own campaign"
":flatwhat:"
Expect a tour of motorway service stations next!