Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?
Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may It's on Rentouls twitter
Yes with named candidates sample size only 503 . Fieldwork before the Labour boost in polls and pre Manchester of course .
Sounds about right. Not much movement in London except LD gaining somewhat at the expense of the Tories who gobbled their 2015 votes en masse
Gaining ground at the expense of Tories in what is by some way the most Remain Conservative constituency and is also safe enough to allow scope for a protest vote.
Carshalton is likely to be different.
If the Conservatives are losing ground slightly in places like Kensington and Battersea, they'll be gaining extra ground in Labour Leave seats.
Comparing the Remain vote in the Conservative battleground constituencies in London:
Hampstead 77% Tooting 75% Richmond 73% Ealing C 71% Westminster N 67% Twickenham 66% Kingston 59% Brentford 57% Harrow W 57% Enfield N 51% Croydon C 50% Sutton 49% Eltham 48% Ilford N 48% Erith 46% Carshalton 44% Dagenham 30%
The majority are more Leave than the London average.
And while Hampstead is very Remain, the residents are not that keen on Corbyn's brand of socialism.
I find that surprising; surely Glenda wasn't a million miles away in ideology and [quick google] - is a fan...
If they continue polling 10%, will the Lib Dems manage to hold on to their nine seats?
They're polling more like 7-8% in the most recent surveys IIRC - but that's no worse than they did last time, and even if you assume that the polls are exactly right for the yellows they could still do a little better in terms of seats. If they manage to lose no more to the Tories than they gain from them, then knocking over the odd SNP and Labour incumbent ought to see them go into credit.
From that article... An RAF source said: “The sentiment of the message written on the weapon is understandable and such writing has history in the RAF, so the individual concerned will not be taken to task.”
She seems more pen-pal material – Although I’d recommend DrBlue gets a PO.Box number.
Managed to fit in Bristol Stapleton Road to Severn Beach on Monday evening
Speed dating...?
I was supposed to have a full five minutes at Severn Beach, but we arrived late and only had about two minutes to take pics - missed the station entrance!
Based on experience of constituency polls last time round, I think the Survation Battersea poll is probably best filed in the bin. Quite apart from anything else, the Stop Brexit indy ain't gonna get 17%.
On the subject of the spreads, don't forget IGIndex (the world's largest spread-betting company, mainly handling serious bets in the financial markets):
Currently slightly different to the SPIN and SpreadEx prices:
Con 386-392 Lab 170-175 LD 13-15.5 SNP 43.5-46.5
Yes, IG are 2/3 seats more bullish than Sporting/Spreadex on the Tories and 2 seats more bearish on Labour .... which can be handy if you're looking to narrow the spreads. Speaking of which, IG are operating a five seat spread on Labour, compared with 6 seats from the other 2 firms. Until IG entered the GE Seats markets in 2015, both its much smaller competitors were offering TEN SEAT spreads on both the main parties .... talk about taking candy off a baby!
There are still untradably wide really. Bring back Spreadfair..
Surely a 2nd. betting exchange is needed. I can't see that Betfair has better odds than normal bookies very often although you may need it if you want to lay a lot of bets.
As much as it pains me to do it I have to say I agree with Trump. No excuse for NATO members not paying their way. It's a voluntary club, countries should not be a part of it if not willing to pay.
That said, I'm not sure strategically it works for the US to put this pressure on other leaders - the more others pay the less dominance the US has, and 2% from Luxembourg makes no more difference than 0.3% or whatever they currently spend. But I can understand American anger over it.
It has all become clear to me now. Corbyn is simply a Tory party plant designed to destroy Labour. Farron is clearly a Labour plant designed to destroy the Lib Dems.
Suggesting that Theresa May is a wicked witch is not a good look:
twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/867773189195255808
It has all become clear to me now. Corbyn is simply a Tory party plant designed to destroy Labour. Farron is clearly a Labour plant designed to destroy the Lib Dems.
The LibDem position doesn't make any sense to me on Brexit. We have invoked Article 50 - there is no "we changed our minds about leaving" option.
What they CAN do however is to be the party of rejoining - if not the whole EU then at least some deal to rejoin the single market if it is a hard Brexit.
I think they have genuine mileage in that appeal, and a solid core of well-wishers (but not this particular leaver, obviously)
From that article... An RAF source said: “The sentiment of the message written on the weapon is understandable and such writing has history in the RAF, so the individual concerned will not be taken to task.”
Excellent.
An outbreak of common sense against the relentless march of political correctness. Well done to whichever brass hat made that statement.
Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?
Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may It's on Rentouls twitter
Yes with named candidates sample size only 503 . Fieldwork before the Labour boost in polls and pre Manchester of course .
Sounds about right. Not much movement in London except LD gaining somewhat at the expense of the Tories who gobbled their 2015 votes en masse
Gaining ground at the expense of Tories in what is by some way the most Remain Conservative constituency and is also safe enough to allow scope for a protest vote.
Carshalton is likely to be different.
If the Conservatives are losing ground slightly in places like Kensington and Battersea, they'll be gaining extra ground in Labour Leave seats.
Comparing the Remain vote in the Conservative battleground constituencies in London:
Hampstead 77% Tooting 75% Richmond 73% Ealing C 71% Westminster N 67% Twickenham 66% Kingston 59% Brentford 57% Harrow W 57% Enfield N 51% Croydon C 50% Sutton 49% Eltham 48% Ilford N 48% Erith 46% Carshalton 44% Dagenham 30%
The majority are more Leave than the London average.
And while Hampstead is very Remain, the residents are not that keen on Corbyn's brand of socialism.
I think the Tories will fail to gain any of those seats over 57% Remain (except possibly Ealing C) and they will lose Richmond Park, Kingston and Twickenham to the LDs but the Tories will gain all those 51% Remain or under and every Leave seat in that list except maybe Dagenham and Erith. Harrow West is too close to call but I think Brentford will go blue
If they continue polling 10%, will the Lib Dems manage to hold on to their nine seats?
Probably not, though they might still gain a few (especially in Scotland) and so emerge with around 9 or so. 5-14 seems the general range, with very outside chances of even worse or even better.
She seems more pen-pal material – Although I’d recommend DrBlue gets a PO.Box number.
Managed to fit in Bristol Stapleton Road to Severn Beach on Monday evening
Speed dating...?
I was supposed to have a full five minutes at Severn Beach, but we arrived late and only had about two minutes to take pics - missed the station entrance!
The LibDem position doesn't make any sense to me on Brexit. We have invoked Article 50 - there is no "we changed our minds about leaving" option.
What they CAN do however is to be the party of rejoining - if not the whole EU then at least some deal to rejoin the single market if it is a hard Brexit.
I think they have genuine mileage in that appeal, and a solid core of well-wishers (but not this particular leaver, obviously)
Of course they can campaign for anything they want but yes, your point is well made; we're out so the sensible option is to campaign to get back in. Nigel did it and won; no reason why they can't. In the long run that is...
When do we start to get the tales of the postal vote turnouts.
& No sex during daylight hours in ramadan. Interesting piece of trivia I didn't know previously !
Do you know what the punishment for sex during Ramadan is?
You have to either fast for a further two months or feed 60 poor people.
Not going to ask what Jesus did to justify his punishment of feeding the 5000.
Tweeted congratulating a number of paedos and serial killers?
Well the father of Jesus was a serial killer, in fact he committed genocide.
Have you ever totted up the number of people God murdered when he got angry in The Old Testament.
The Devil has nothing on him.
Ever heard the story about the bet Evelyn Waugh had with Randolph Churchill ?
Not that I can recall, please do tell.
During the war while in the middle east Waugh bet Randolph that he couldn't read the whole Old Testament without speaking - he did this to shut Randolph up.
Randolph got part way through and then declared "I never knew that God was such a shit".
He also said the UK was the closest US ally when condemning the leaks and demanded NATO nations pay more, the UK is one of the few nations to meet the target
I wonder how much better things would be for the LibDems if they had Norman Lamb as their leader.
Potentially a great deal better. An early promise to have nothing to do with Corbyn, plus an immediate acceptance of Brexit in principle (and advocacy of the EEA in practice) could've done them quite a lot of good in Southern England. But, of course, we shall never know.
When do we start to get the tales of the postal vote turnouts.
& No sex during daylight hours in ramadan. Interesting piece of trivia I didn't know previously !
Do you know what the punishment for sex during Ramadan is?
You have to either fast for a further two months or feed 60 poor people.
Not going to ask what Jesus did to justify his punishment of feeding the 5000.
Tweeted congratulating a number of paedos and serial killers?
Well the father of Jesus was a serial killer, in fact he committed genocide.
Have you ever totted up the number of people God murdered when he got angry in The Old Testament.
The Devil has nothing on him.
Ever heard the story about the bet Evelyn Waugh had with Randolph Churchill ?
Not that I can recall, please do tell.
During the war while in the middle east Waugh bet Randolph that he couldn't read the whole Old Testament without speaking - he did this to shut Randolph up.
Randolph got part way through and then declared "I never knew that God was such a shit".
Actually they were in the Balkans, fighting for Tito, who Waugh was convinced was a woman.
When do we start to get the tales of the postal vote turnouts.
& No sex during daylight hours in ramadan. Interesting piece of trivia I didn't know previously !
Do you know what the punishment for sex during Ramadan is?
You have to either fast for a further two months or feed 60 poor people.
Not going to ask what Jesus did to justify his punishment of feeding the 5000.
Tweeted congratulating a number of paedos and serial killers?
Well the father of Jesus was a serial killer, in fact he committed genocide.
Have you ever totted up the number of people God murdered when he got angry in The Old Testament.
The Devil has nothing on him.
Ever heard the story about the bet Evelyn Waugh had with Randolph Churchill ?
Not that I can recall, please do tell.
During the war while in the middle east Waugh bet Randolph that he couldn't read the whole Old Testament without speaking - he did this to shut Randolph up.
Randolph got part way through and then declared "I never knew that God was such a shit".
He also said the UK was the closest US ally when condemning the leaks and demanded NATO nations pay more, the UK is one of the few nations to meet the target
Partly due to creative accounting by George Osborne, isn't it? Admittedly of the same form the Americans use of including things like pensions.
Comparing female Tory PMs to witches is a staple of the left.
And the US left. Oh! She was a witch ...
[Actually, O'Donnell denied being a witch, admitting only to have dabbled briefly with witchcraft during her teens, but that is less interesting than the persisting image of her.]
Apparently those leaflets are about in Islington. Now I know the Tories are on course for gains, but surely leaflets should be about attacking Corbyn/Thornberry there.
There's a real whiff of misogny about them too I'm afraid.
I wonder how much better things would be for the LibDems if they had Norman Lamb as their leader.
Potentially a great deal better. An early promise to have nothing to do with Corbyn, plus an immediate acceptance of Brexit in principle (and advocacy of the EEA in practice) could've done them quite a lot of good in Southern England. But, of course, we shall never know.
They may still gain seats in southern England in Remainer through Labour tactical voting but I doubt Lamb would have done much better than Farron nationally and I think the Tories may gain his North Norfolk seat
He also said the UK was the closest US ally when condemning the leaks and demanded NATO nations pay more, the UK is one of the few nations to meet the target
Partly due to creative accounting by George Osborne, isn't it? Admittedly of the same form the Americans use of including things like pensions.
Perhaps but the UK, the US, Greece, Poland and Estonia are listed as the only NATO nations who meet the 2% target
Comparing female Tory PMs to witches is a staple of the left.
And the US left. Oh! She was a witch ...
[Actually, O'Donnell denied being a witch, admitting only to have dabbled briefly with witchcraft during her teens, but that is less interesting than the persisting image of her.]
Whereas Hilary was treated with the most gallant respect?
Comparing female Tory PMs to witches is a staple of the left.
Wasn't it the queen who gave the apple to Snow White or am I misremembering? But in any case, it's a LibDem leaflet and they are surely more right than left as the coalition indicates.
I wonder how much better things would be for the LibDems if they had Norman Lamb as their leader.
Potentially a great deal better. An early promise to have nothing to do with Corbyn, plus an immediate acceptance of Brexit in principle (and advocacy of the EEA in practice) could've done them quite a lot of good in Southern England. But, of course, we shall never know.
They may still gain seats in southern England in Remainer through Labour tactical voting but I doubt Lamb would have done much better than Farron nationally and I think the Tories may gain his North Norfolk seat
Lamb may lose his N Norfolk seat because of Farron's policy to reverse the referendum vote. N Norfolk is pro Brexit.
F1: ha, annoyed I didn't back Vettel at 2.87 for pole (now Hamilton's odds). But also perplexed.
Winner market. Vettel is 1.9. Raikkonen is 19.
......
That's a bloody gulf. And he's 27 on Betfair!
He's half a second behind Vettel in both practice sessions. But he could still qualify 2nd. One bad pit stop, VSC etc could easily see him in the lead.
He also said the UK was the closest US ally when condemning the leaks and demanded NATO nations pay more, the UK is one of the few nations to meet the target
Partly due to creative accounting by George Osborne, isn't it? Admittedly of the same form the Americans use of including things like pensions.
Veterans healthcare (and other veterans costs) are included in US defence spending, of course. Without that, the gap between the US and the rest, would be somewhat smaller.
is interesting in that it says they ignore postal votes (for obvious reasons).
It's true that the days when the postal vote was mostly Tory-leaning pensioners have long gone. In many wards the postal vote isn't significantly different in mix from the polling station voters.
Nevertheless the data they present on exit polls indicates that its exceedingly good record up to 2005 has deteriorated (with an emerging underestimate of the Conservative vote) at the same time as the number of postal votes has significantly increased. This is probably a reason to assume that this year the exit poll might understate the Conservative performance by a percent or so.
I'm cackling that the Stop Brexit candidate is polling 9% more than the LDs
I'd venture the suggestion that, confronted on your PC or mobile device's screen with three names that most voters won't have heard of plus the familiar party names, and a fourth that clearly contains a message/policy, does magnify significantly the proportion of people who would click the "anti Brexit" candidate in an area like Battersea. The take away from this is that, in this atypical Inner London seat at least, concern about Brexit is still a very salient issue.
I don't believe the percentage of people clicking against this candidate in an online poll will translate into the same number of real votes when people come to fill in their ballot papers.
I'm cackling that the Stop Brexit candidate is polling 9% more than the LDs
I'd venture the suggestion that, confronted on your PC or mobile device's screen with three names that most voters won't have heard of plus the familiar party names, and a fourth that clearly contains a message/policy, does magnify significantly the proportion of people who would click the "anti Brexit" candidate in an area like Battersea. The take away from this is that, in this atypical Inner London seat at least, concern about Brexit is still a very salient issue.
I don't believe the percentage of people clicking against this candidate in an online poll will translate into the same number of real votes when people come to fill in their ballot papers.
It's amazing that the Lib Dems aren't the de facto anti Brexit party.
Comparing female Tory PMs to witches is a staple of the left.
And the US left. Oh! She was a witch ...
[Actually, O'Donnell denied being a witch, admitting only to have dabbled briefly with witchcraft during her teens, but that is less interesting than the persisting image of her.]
Whereas Hilary was treated with the most gallant respect?
No. But she is something of an exception within the US.
The US left go after GOP women, particularly very conservative GOP women, with a ferocity not matched the other way around and not accorded to GOP men of similar views. Even Nancy Pelosi does not get that sort of hate.
I'm cackling that the Stop Brexit candidate is polling 9% more than the LDs
I'd venture the suggestion that, confronted on your PC or mobile device's screen with three names that most voters won't have heard of plus the familiar party names, and a fourth that clearly contains a message/policy, does magnify significantly the proportion of people who would click the "anti Brexit" candidate in an area like Battersea. The take away from this is that, in this atypical Inner London seat at least, concern about Brexit is still a very salient issue.
I don't believe the percentage of people clicking against this candidate in an online poll will translate into the same number of real votes when people come to fill in their ballot papers.
It's amazing that the Lib Dems aren't the de facto anti Brexit party.
I would be confident that they'll get more real votes in Battersea than the anti Brexit candidate.
Comments
Have you ever totted up the number of people God murdered when he got angry in The Old Testament.
The Devil has nothing on him.
He's a man, she's a woman, they both have urges...
But I can see the Lib Dem share of the vote drop and them make a net gain of seats.
Scotland could give the Lib Dems a great result on June 8th.
I have asked Shadsy to price up a market on whether the Lib Dems will have more Scottish MPs than English MPs on June 9th.
An RAF source said: “The sentiment of the message written on the weapon is understandable and such writing has history in the RAF, so the individual concerned will not be taken to task.”
Excellent.
I lie awake at night wondering if there is a dog.
https://mobile.twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/867511926573719553/photo/2
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/867773189195255808
That said, I'm not sure strategically it works for the US to put this pressure on other leaders - the more others pay the less dominance the US has, and 2% from Luxembourg makes no more difference than 0.3% or whatever they currently spend. But I can understand American anger over it.
We have invoked Article 50 - there is no "we changed our minds about leaving" option.
What they CAN do however is to be the party of rejoining - if not the whole EU then at least some deal to rejoin the single market if it is a hard Brexit.
I think they have genuine mileage in that appeal, and a solid core of well-wishers (but not this particular leaver, obviously)
Randolph got part way through and then declared "I never knew that God was such a shit".
https://twitter.com/lbcbreaking/status/867672746876076032
Twice as good.
Norman Lamb is not a fanatical EU lover and would not pursue the suicidal undemocratic policy of ignoring the result of the referendum..
Because stopping the King's mails was a capital offence and, as Stephen Maturin explains, the man who stops a cannonball is unlikely to survive.
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Media/Pix/pictures/2010/3/25/1269510893554/Conservative-demon-eyes-c-001.jpg
- there can surely be almost nobody who would now seriously dispute the characterisation?
Mr. Anorak, I agree absolutely.
Greek ex-PM Lucas Papademos injured in Athens car blast
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40052213
[Actually, O'Donnell denied being a witch, admitting only to have dabbled briefly with witchcraft during her teens, but that is less interesting than the persisting image of her.]
Dust off the major incident plan.
There's a real whiff of misogny about them too I'm afraid.
I get a message that the twitter page does not exist. What was it?
N Norfolk is pro Brexit.
That's the sign of a good cartoonist.
Winner market. Vettel is 1.9. Raikkonen is 19.
......
That's a bloody gulf. And he's 27 on Betfair!
He's half a second behind Vettel in both practice sessions. But he could still qualify 2nd. One bad pit stop, VSC etc could easily see him in the lead.
is interesting in that it says they ignore postal votes (for obvious reasons).
It's true that the days when the postal vote was mostly Tory-leaning pensioners have long gone. In many wards the postal vote isn't significantly different in mix from the polling station voters.
Nevertheless the data they present on exit polls indicates that its exceedingly good record up to 2005 has deteriorated (with an emerging underestimate of the Conservative vote) at the same time as the number of postal votes has significantly increased. This is probably a reason to assume that this year the exit poll might understate the Conservative performance by a percent or so.
Mr. Cumbria, boo! I bet the Fish Finger would've been brill.
I don't believe the percentage of people clicking against this candidate in an online poll will translate into the same number of real votes when people come to fill in their ballot papers.
https://twitter.com/GMPMiddleton/status/867771197232164864
The US left go after GOP women, particularly very conservative GOP women, with a ferocity not matched the other way around and not accorded to GOP men of similar views. Even Nancy Pelosi does not get that sort of hate.