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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories heading for 124 seat majority according to spread betti

SystemSystem Posts: 12,261
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories heading for 124 seat majority according to spread betting markets

With the campaign starting to get underway again it is perhaps worth reminding ourselves that we have a dearth of up to date polling. There’ve only three national surveys that were carried out after the CON manifesto launch last week. These have been ICM and the Survation online poll for the Mail on Sunday and the phone one for Good Morning Britain.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    edited May 2017
    That'll do Mrs May.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Zahid Hussain guilty of fairy lights bomb plot

    A man who planned to target a railway line with a homemade bomb of fairy lights and a pressure cooker has been found guilty of preparing for an act of terrorism.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-40046773
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Dadge said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If you have no idea of what nosh(ing) means, don't google it.

    I doubt any PBers are THAT sheltered
    A blow job? I did google it - never heard of it. I suppose it suits some depraved people to pretend that everyone else is depraved so that they don't feel the need to have any qualms about their depravity...
    You expect PB to swallow that ....

    Tsk ....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    I think that's a bit optimistic for the Lib Dems. Not sure, but maybe the same for the Conservatives. I think Labour might surprise on the upside.

    Also worth recalling that many votes have already been cast by post.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    The law of counter intuitives in polling says labour will narrow the gap.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    172 doesn't keep Corbo in a job.

    Need another Con gaffe or two.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    That'll do Mrs May.

    Too high.

    Or am I influenced by my betting position (76-98 majority and LDs sub 20 being my best result)? :)
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    JackW said:

    Dadge said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If you have no idea of what nosh(ing) means, don't google it.

    I doubt any PBers are THAT sheltered
    A blow job? I did google it - never heard of it. I suppose it suits some depraved people to pretend that everyone else is depraved so that they don't feel the need to have any qualms about their depravity...
    You expect PB to swallow that ....

    Tsk ....
    Sounds like a bit of a cock-up to me.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    OT the BBC is closing BBC Store, which was its online programme sales unit thingy, and getting into bed with Amazon, so that's another few quid on the balance of payments deficit.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    JackW said:

    Dadge said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If you have no idea of what nosh(ing) means, don't google it.

    I doubt any PBers are THAT sheltered
    A blow job? I did google it - never heard of it. I suppose it suits some depraved people to pretend that everyone else is depraved so that they don't feel the need to have any qualms about their depravity...
    You expect PB to swallow that ....

    Tsk ....
    80s joke

    Scouser gets a prostitute, she asks if he'd like a blow job

    'Will it affect me dole money?'
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    Those of us who visit traditional barbers know little of "blow jobs".
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    I see the usual PB cunning linguists are out in force again today...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    No sign so far of the Conservatives going down then.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Anorak said:

    Pong said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pong said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    That YouGov Wales poll with Labour ahead, an explanation of why it might be an outlier.

    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/867348365939548162

    https://twitter.com/harrydcarr/status/867345079488348160

    I have a stub of a theory that TM rubs many women up the wrong way.

    I think her occasionally cold, moralizing tone grates with a substantial proportion of women. They don't like being told what to do by a domineering mother-in-law type woman.

    Many men are either ambivalent, or quite like it.
    If that theory was true, Mrs Thatcher would have never won an election.
    Thatcher was a different woman in a different era.

    Forget the words/policy positions for a moment, just go on the vibe;

    May isn't warm and relatable, in same the way as - say - leadsom or lucas is.

    I think - for many men, that's irrelevant, or positive in a female PM.

    For many women, it's a negative.

    Kinda works the other way around with men / male politicians (eg, the usual *is he gay* shite wheeled out against any man who isn't alpha).
    Shoe envy. Only possible explanation.
    No.

    Her shoes are nice, but nice for her. They would not go with my style so although I can admire her shoe choices, mine are totally different.

    I cannot quite say what it is about her that irritates me, but something grates. I worry that perhaps her premier talent is to do nothing because it seems that when she is confronted with questions, people or problems she never seem to be able to deal well with it.

    It is all a bit mediocre and hapless.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Deep throat has leaked further details of UKIP'S plans for the hospital ship
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    isam said:

    JackW said:

    Dadge said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If you have no idea of what nosh(ing) means, don't google it.

    I doubt any PBers are THAT sheltered
    A blow job? I did google it - never heard of it. I suppose it suits some depraved people to pretend that everyone else is depraved so that they don't feel the need to have any qualms about their depravity...
    You expect PB to swallow that ....

    Tsk ....
    80s joke

    Scouser gets a prostitute, she asks if he'd like a blow job

    'Will it affect me dole money?'
    That's a bit below the belt
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Blimey, 124 seat majority according to spread betting markets. Someone is going to lose big.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,486
    I am SHOCKED.

    All this writing down.

    Whatever happened to the oral tradition?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    Cyclefree said:

    I am SHOCKED.

    All this writing down.

    Whatever happened to the oral tradition?

    I always loved writing letters demanding a (public) act of oral satisfaction
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Cyclefree said:

    I am SHOCKED.

    All this writing down.

    Whatever happened to the oral tradition?

    It sucks.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Laughing at the policy won't help, ukip can take it. They can take it all.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited May 2017
    dyedwoolie said:

    The law of counter intuitives in polling says labour will narrow the gap.

    Mr. Woolie, I think that there is now a fair body of evidence to suggest that the polling companies make up the numbers, sorry, adjust their weighting, as they go along. The trick it would seem is not to be too far from the other companies' offerings as that way they cannot be criticised and so the other 99% (see up thread) of their business is protected. To say such things on this site may be regarded as heresy, but the events of 2015 admit no other explanation.

    Bookies odds are of course a reflection of where the money is going and so only a second order indication of what might happen. An effect that might itself be affected by the dodgy opinion polls in some sort of daft feedback loop.

    Where to place our money? Well I have thought for sometime that it is wise to have a few quid on the opposite of whatever the consensus is on this site.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Have the pollsters stopped polling since the weekend or perhaps they've simply and sensitively decided not to disclose their results? ..... Would such results, were they to exist, even be reliable? Possibly not.
    I sense that today/ tomorrow is probably the earliest time for the pollsters to resume their normal level of activity, which means we'll probably see some numbers late on Saturday.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    HurstLlama said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    The law of counter intuitives in polling says labour will narrow the gap.

    Mr. Woolie, I think that there is now a fair body of evidence to suggest that the polling companies make up the numbers, sorry, adjust their weighting, as they go along. The trick it would seem is not to be too far from the other companies' offerings as that way they cannot be criticised and so the other 99% (see up thread) of their business is protected. To say such things on this site may be regarded as heresy, but the events of 2015 admit no other explanation.
    Yes - in particular, Survation spiking a poll because it was out of line with the other pollsters was outrageous.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2017
    HurstLlama said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    The law of counter intuitives in polling says labour will narrow the gap.

    Mr. Woolie, I think that there is now a fair body of evidence to suggest that the polling companies make up the numbers, sorry, adjust their weighting, as they go along. The trick it would seem is not to be too far from the other companies' offerings as that way they cannot be criticised and so the other 99% (see up thread) of their business is protected. To say such things on this site may be regarded as heresy, but the events of 2015 admit no other explanation.

    Bookies odds are of course a reflection of where the money is going and so only a second order indication of what might happen. An effect that might itself be affected by the dodgy opinion polls in some sort of daft feedback loop.

    Where to place our money? Well I have thought for sometime that it is wise to have a few quid on the opposite of whatever the consensus is on this site.
    I'm genuinely lost as to where this one will go now. I've got a feeling it will be either a terrible night for the Tories, or Sunderland Central will go blue. Nothing in between!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    I expect polling numbers will be coming soon. For some, they might be a bit hard to swallow mind.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Mind you kiddies for Corbyn does have all the hallmarks of Bart Simpsons campaign to be class president.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    I expect polling numbers will be coming soon. For some, they might be a bit hard to swallow mind.

    Interesting. Do you think Lab will get a unlikely boost?
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Line up fpr tonights Question Time announced - Amber Rudd, Andy Burnham, Sara Khan, Nazir Afzal and Colin Parry
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    ThreeQuidder said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I am SHOCKED.

    All this writing down.

    Whatever happened to the oral tradition?

    It sucks.
    Terrible gag.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Unless the allegations against him this time are far worse than last time, I really can't see the point of this. He's already been tried and served a lengthy sentence:

    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/867719396181061633
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    TGOHF said:

    172 doesn't keep Corbo in a job.

    Need another Con gaffe or two.

    All results keep Corbyn, he 'aint going until there's a hard left person on the next ticket.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    TGOHF said:

    172 doesn't keep Corbo in a job.

    Need another Con gaffe or two.

    172 and a vote share >30% keeps JC in a job I reckon.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    The polls might not be right, they might not be right at all:

    Likud 2015 Israeli election - take a look at THAT outperformance.

    Remember Bibi is seen to be tough on security.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    HurstLlama said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    The law of counter intuitives in polling says labour will narrow the gap.

    Mr. Woolie, I think that there is now a fair body of evidence to suggest that the polling companies make up the numbers, sorry, adjust their weighting, as they go along. The trick it would seem is not to be too far from the other companies' offerings as that way they cannot be criticised and so the other 99% (see up thread) of their business is protected. To say such things on this site may be regarded as heresy, but the events of 2015 admit no other explanation.

    Bookies odds are of course a reflection of where the money is going and so only a second order indication of what might happen. An effect that might itself be affected by the dodgy opinion polls in some sort of daft feedback loop.

    Where to place our money? Well I have thought for sometime that it is wise to have a few quid on the opposite of whatever the consensus is on this site.
    Counter intuitive is how dyedwoolie describes it. I prefer the clumsier but rather more descriptive term of going against the herd instinct.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    marke09 said:

    Line up fpr tonights Question Time announced - Amber Rudd, Andy Burnham, Sara Khan, Nazir Afzal and Colin Parry

    That may result in some sensible debate for once..
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    Trump is turning into Mr Anti-Brexit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/25/trump-worried-about-brexit-impact-on-us-jobs
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    williamglenn said:

    Trump is turning into Mr Anti-Brexit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/25/trump-worried-about-brexit-impact-on-us-jobs

    They tuk r jobbbbbbbbbbbbbs
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    dyedwoolie said:

    HurstLlama said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    The law of counter intuitives in polling says labour will narrow the gap.

    Mr. Woolie, I think that there is now a fair body of evidence to suggest that the polling companies make up the numbers, sorry, adjust their weighting, as they go along. The trick it would seem is not to be too far from the other companies' offerings as that way they cannot be criticised and so the other 99% (see up thread) of their business is protected. To say such things on this site may be regarded as heresy, but the events of 2015 admit no other explanation.

    Bookies odds are of course a reflection of where the money is going and so only a second order indication of what might happen. An effect that might itself be affected by the dodgy opinion polls in some sort of daft feedback loop.

    Where to place our money? Well I have thought for sometime that it is wise to have a few quid on the opposite of whatever the consensus is on this site.
    I'm genuinely lost as to where this one will go now. I've got a feeling it will be either a terrible night for the Tories, or Sunderland Central will go blue. Nothing in between!
    Mr. Woolie, I expect something in between. I do not do tips (because I 'd feel guilty if I was wrong) but would urge huge caution on anybody betting based on the consensus of this site or even the words of its thread header writers - both have been proved wrong too often for my tastes.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I expect polling numbers will be coming soon. For some, they might be a bit hard to swallow mind.

    Interesting. Do you think Lab will get a unlikely boost?
    blow job joke. see every thing else on this thread.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    williamglenn said:

    Trump is turning into Mr Anti-Brexit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/25/trump-worried-about-brexit-impact-on-us-jobs

    No, I think you've fairly won that title through dedication to the cause over the last 12 months or so!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    HurstLlama said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    HurstLlama said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    The law of counter intuitives in polling says labour will narrow the gap.

    Mr. Woolie, I think that there is now a fair body of evidence to suggest that the polling companies make up the numbers, sorry, adjust their weighting, as they go along. The trick it would seem is not to be too far from the other companies' offerings as that way they cannot be criticised and so the other 99% (see up thread) of their business is protected. To say such things on this site may be regarded as heresy, but the events of 2015 admit no other explanation.

    Bookies odds are of course a reflection of where the money is going and so only a second order indication of what might happen. An effect that might itself be affected by the dodgy opinion polls in some sort of daft feedback loop.

    Where to place our money? Well I have thought for sometime that it is wise to have a few quid on the opposite of whatever the consensus is on this site.
    I'm genuinely lost as to where this one will go now. I've got a feeling it will be either a terrible night for the Tories, or Sunderland Central will go blue. Nothing in between!
    Mr. Woolie, I expect something in between. I do not do tips (because I 'd feel guilty if I was wrong) but would urge huge caution on anybody betting based on the consensus of this site or even the words of its thread header writers - both have been proved wrong too often for my tastes.
    If the northern, WWC vote has truly deserted labour it could be a very odd night indeed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Am I being thick here:


    1.1 1.11 for Tory Maj
    1.11 1.12 Theresa May PM after election.

    How can TM the PM be LONGER than Tory Maj ?
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Pulpstar said:

    I expect polling numbers will be coming soon. For some, they might be a bit hard to swallow mind.

    When will that fella show us his poll?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    TudorRose said:

    TGOHF said:

    172 doesn't keep Corbo in a job.

    Need another Con gaffe or two.

    172 and a vote share >30% keeps JC in a job I reckon.
    Agreed, with the strong support of the party membership, Corbyn's fellow MPs who would like to see him replaced, are effectively neutered. The only way in which he's likely to be replaced in the short term would be if he himself were to decide that he'd had enough and was anxious to see some like-minded individual safely installed as his successor.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    williamglenn said:

    Trump is turning into Mr Anti-Brexit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/25/trump-worried-about-brexit-impact-on-us-jobs

    Foreign leader tells dignitaries he's visiting that he is worried about what they're worried about.

    In other news the sun is hot and water is wet.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Am I being thick here:


    1.1 1.11 for Tory Maj
    1.11 1.12 Theresa May PM after election.

    How can TM the PM be LONGER than Tory Maj ?

    Not saying it will happen but imagine if a Tory Majority of 25 is returned, May says that's not good enough under the circumstances and resigns.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    ThreeQuidder said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I am SHOCKED.

    All this writing down.

    Whatever happened to the oral tradition?

    It sucks.
    cometh the hour, cometh the man.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Pulpstar said:

    Am I being thick here:


    1.1 1.11 for Tory Maj
    1.11 1.12 Theresa May PM after election.

    How can TM the PM be LONGER than Tory Maj ?

    Talk to an actuary.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    This is worth reading:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/may/25/london-property-squeeze-affordable-housing

    It does explain why the Conservative position has collapsed in much of London's metroland and why the London swing this year will yet again be less favourable to them than nationally.

    ' a 2013 report by the Migrants’ Rights Network concluded that Ealing may have as many as 60,000 occupants in illegal structures, and Slough borough council, which deployed planes equipped with thermal imaging equipment in an effort to spot them, may have as many as 6,000 beds in sheds. In 2013 a BBC investigation found estate agents renting out beds in sheds in Willesden Green and Harrow. '

    ' And while some will leave the city, others will put up with otherwise unacceptable conditions in order to keep their jobs and family ties. This means that generation rent must pay through the nose to live in an increasingly sterile city – a playground for the rich in the centre, surrounded by gentrifying hipster hinterlands, and substandard housing for cheap labour in places such as Barking, Dagenham and Edmonton. '

    Remind me again why it would be good for towns and cities around Britain to become more like London ?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,497
    TudorRose said:

    TGOHF said:

    172 doesn't keep Corbo in a job.

    Need another Con gaffe or two.

    172 and a vote share >30% keeps JC in a job I reckon.
    Yes, I think there are two benchmarks and in the minds of his supporters either will suffice - about 200 seats or 30% of the vote. If he doesn't get either he may then be in trouble, although not necessarily.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Trump is turning into Mr Anti-Brexit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/25/trump-worried-about-brexit-impact-on-us-jobs

    Foreign leader tells dignitaries he's visiting that he is worried about what they're worried about.

    In other news the sun is hot and water is wet.
    Is water technically wet? This has always puzzled me, as I think of something being wet if it has added water.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    peter_from_putney said:

    TudorRose said:

    TGOHF said:

    172 doesn't keep Corbo in a job.

    Need another Con gaffe or two.

    172 and a vote share >30% keeps JC in a job I reckon.
    Agreed, with the strong support of the party membership, Corbyn's fellow MPs who would like to see him replaced, are effectively neutered. The only way in which he's likely to be replaced in the short term would be if he himself were to decide that he'd had enough and was anxious to see some like-minded individual safely installed as his successor.
    Inevitabley the collapse of UKIP will mean LAB will get a bigger vote share - but that's irrelevant. It's the gap behind CON losing a pile more seats that does for Mr. Corbyn

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Am I being thick here:


    1.1 1.11 for Tory Maj
    1.11 1.12 Theresa May PM after election.

    How can TM the PM be LONGER than Tory Maj ?

    Talk to an actuary.
    May and Corbyn combined are a 100% book at the midpoint, so it isn't that.
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Am I being thick here:


    1.1 1.11 for Tory Maj
    1.11 1.12 Theresa May PM after election.

    How can TM the PM be LONGER than Tory Maj ?

    Not saying it will happen but imagine if a Tory Majority of 25 is returned, May says that's not good enough under the circumstances and resigns.
    Or that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    MarkSenior said:

    Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?

    No. Do you have a link ?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2017
    MarkSenior said:

    Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?

    Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may
    It's on Rentouls twitter
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455
    Pulpstar said:

    Am I being thick here:


    1.1 1.11 for Tory Maj
    1.11 1.12 Theresa May PM after election.

    How can TM the PM be LONGER than Tory Maj ?

    A 1% chance of a terror attack, a catastrophic health event, a party coup, or a freak result in her constituency, seems about right?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2017
    ThreeQuidder said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Trump is turning into Mr Anti-Brexit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/25/trump-worried-about-brexit-impact-on-us-jobs

    Foreign leader tells dignitaries he's visiting that he is worried about what they're worried about.

    In other news the sun is hot and water is wet.
    Is water technically wet? This has always puzzled me, as I think of something being wet if it has added water.
    That's like saying something is only hot if it burns something else.

    And you need to get out more :)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Am I being thick here:


    1.1 1.11 for Tory Maj
    1.11 1.12 Theresa May PM after election.

    How can TM the PM be LONGER than Tory Maj ?

    Not saying it will happen but imagine if a Tory Majority of 25 is returned, May says that's not good enough under the circumstances and resigns.
    Yes, but there are no other Conservatives listed below 999-1.

    If Con get a tiny majority and May resigns, Corbyn is not going to become PM.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    That UKIP woman who was leader of UKIP for 30 secs is barking.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    ThreeQuidder said:

    Is water technically wet?

    Not very. Quite often it has wetting agents added
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    dyedwoolie said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?

    Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may
    It's on Rentouls twitter
    Yes with named candidates sample size only 503 . Fieldwork before the Labour boost in polls and pre Manchester of course .
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    MarkSenior said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?

    Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may
    It's on Rentouls twitter
    Yes with named candidates sample size only 503 . Fieldwork before the Labour boost in polls and pre Manchester of course .
    Sounds about right. Not much movement in London except LD gaining somewhat at the expense of the Tories who gobbled their 2015 votes en masse
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    Is water technically wet?

    Not very. Quite often it has wetting agents added
    So water, which I would say is the very quintessence of 'wetness', can be made in some way wetter?!

    EDIT: Wetting agents and penetrants *childish snicker*
    https://www.pitchcare.com/shop/wetting-agents-penetrants/index.html
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    dyedwoolie said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?

    Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may
    It's on Rentouls twitter
    That's a pretty dreadful poll for the Lib Dems.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2017
    Anorak said:

    Scott_P said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    Is water technically wet?

    Not very. Quite often it has wetting agents added
    So water, which I would say is the very quintessence of 'wetness', can be made in some way wetter?!
    Edit, deleted, went all smutty for a minute
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    dyedwoolie said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?

    Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may
    It's on Rentouls twitter
    Very little change since 2010/2015.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    tlg86 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?

    Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may
    It's on Rentouls twitter
    That's a pretty dreadful poll for the Lib Dems.
    ermm Lib Dems plus 7% on last GE , methinks you are somewhat blinkered .
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,408
    williamglenn said:

    Trump is turning into Mr Anti-Brexit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/25/trump-worried-about-brexit-impact-on-us-jobs

    "It was reported that Trump had asked the German chancellor 10 times if he could negotiate a trade deal with Germany. Every time Merkel reportedly replied: “You can’t do a trade deal with Germany, only the EU.”

    That must have been pretty awkward...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    MarkSenior said:

    tlg86 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?

    Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may
    It's on Rentouls twitter
    That's a pretty dreadful poll for the Lib Dems.
    ermm Lib Dems plus 7% on last GE , methinks you are somewhat blinkered .
    It depends if you believe the national polls. They show the Lib Dems holding on to around 60 to 65% of their 2015 vote. It's no good if it's being replaced with votes in places like this. Clegg is in big trouble.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    rkrkrk said:

    williamglenn said:

    Trump is turning into Mr Anti-Brexit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/25/trump-worried-about-brexit-impact-on-us-jobs

    "It was reported that Trump had asked the German chancellor 10 times if he could negotiate a trade deal with Germany. Every time Merkel reportedly replied: “You can’t do a trade deal with Germany, only the EU.”

    That must have been pretty awkward...
    It's late-period Reagan all over again. Not entirely joking.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Anorak said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Trump is turning into Mr Anti-Brexit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/25/trump-worried-about-brexit-impact-on-us-jobs

    Foreign leader tells dignitaries he's visiting that he is worried about what they're worried about.

    In other news the sun is hot and water is wet.
    Is water technically wet? This has always puzzled me, as I think of something being wet if it has added water.
    That's like saying something is only hot if it burns something else.

    And you need to get out more :)
    I'm hot (that's because I've been working).
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    tlg86 said:

    MarkSenior said:

    tlg86 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?

    Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may
    It's on Rentouls twitter
    That's a pretty dreadful poll for the Lib Dems.
    ermm Lib Dems plus 7% on last GE , methinks you are somewhat blinkered .
    It depends if you believe the national polls. They show the Lib Dems holding on to around 60 to 65% of their 2015 vote. It's no good if it's being replaced with votes in places like this. Clegg is in big trouble.
    Dream On
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    On the issue of 'noshing' wasn't that the cause of a Times writing having an enormous meltdown about his sub-editors.

    The email later appearing in the Guardian.

    I can't remember who it was but it was very amusing reading.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    another_richard said:

    On the issue of 'noshing' wasn't that the cause of a Times writing having an enormous meltdown about his sub-editors.

    The email later appearing in the Guardian.

    I can't remember who it was but it was very amusing reading.

    Coren. Jr.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    Hmm.

    Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Letter, in full

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2008/jul/23/mediamonkey
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2017
    Ninja'd by BIP
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    MarkSenior said:

    tlg86 said:

    MarkSenior said:

    tlg86 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?

    Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may
    It's on Rentouls twitter
    That's a pretty dreadful poll for the Lib Dems.
    ermm Lib Dems plus 7% on last GE , methinks you are somewhat blinkered .
    It depends if you believe the national polls. They show the Lib Dems holding on to around 60 to 65% of their 2015 vote. It's no good if it's being replaced with votes in places like this. Clegg is in big trouble.
    Dream On
    Paddy's offering a 44% return in two weeks if you're so confident of Clegg holding on.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    another_richard said:

    On the issue of 'noshing' wasn't that the cause of a Times writing having an enormous meltdown about his sub-editors.

    The email later appearing in the Guardian.

    I can't remember who it was but it was very amusing reading.

    Giles Coren.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2008/jul/23/mediamonkey
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    dyedwoolie said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?

    Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may
    It's on Rentouls twitter
    A small swing against the Conservatives here is likely, given that the constituency was 75% Remain.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hmm.

    Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088

    Implies that the Lib Dem message has not got across. Or that Farron is a bit rubbish.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2017
    MrNoTasteInShoes said:

    Hmm.

    Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088

    ROFL LibDem vs Stop Brexit
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hmm.

    Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088

    Implies that the Lib Dem message has not got across. Or that Farron is a bit rubbish.
    Both.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    I've got to say that I have now seen the most shameless political points scoring from the Manchester attack - and it makes no sense at all. Someone on my timeline sharing a post about how lucky we were that we had the NHS to treat the people after the attack. Now call me stupid if you like but I have seen nothing about terrorist attack victims being refused treatment in European countries - am I missing something?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    Anorak said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hmm.

    Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088

    ROFL LibDem vs Stop Brexit
    Shush you.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    MarkSenior said:

    tlg86 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?

    Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may
    It's on Rentouls twitter
    That's a pretty dreadful poll for the Lib Dems.
    ermm Lib Dems plus 7% on last GE , methinks you are somewhat blinkered .
    Battersea was 77% Remain.

    Now if the LibDems are gaining in Remain constituencies its interesting but also means they'll be doing worse in Leave constituencies.

    Though constituency polls should come with large health warnings.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,787
    Anorak said:

    rkrkrk said:

    williamglenn said:

    Trump is turning into Mr Anti-Brexit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/25/trump-worried-about-brexit-impact-on-us-jobs

    "It was reported that Trump had asked the German chancellor 10 times if he could negotiate a trade deal with Germany. Every time Merkel reportedly replied: “You can’t do a trade deal with Germany, only the EU.”

    That must have been pretty awkward...
    It's late-period Reagan all over again. Not entirely joking.
    There is a lot of evidence / comments from multiple different sources that Trump already has similar issues..... There is a marked change in vocabulary if you compare his speeches from the 1990's and now, and then you have the example above...

    I seriously expect Trump to retire on medical grounds in 2019...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,787
    Nemtynakht said:

    I've got to say that I have now seen the most shameless political points scoring from the Manchester attack - and it makes no sense at all. Someone on my timeline sharing a post about how lucky we were that we had the NHS to treat the people after the attack. Now call me stupid if you like but I have seen nothing about terrorist attack victims being refused treatment in European countries - am I missing something?

    A total misunderstanding by the poster on that timeline on how emergency care works....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    Let that sink in.

    A stop Brexit candidate in a near 80% Remain constituency is polling more than twice the Lib Dem figure.

    Tim Farron, you are a child doing an adult's job.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    dyedwoolie said:

    MarkSenior said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?

    Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may
    It's on Rentouls twitter
    Yes with named candidates sample size only 503 . Fieldwork before the Labour boost in polls and pre Manchester of course .
    Sounds about right. Not much movement in London except LD gaining somewhat at the expense of the Tories who gobbled their 2015 votes en masse
    Gaining ground at the expense of Tories in what is by some way the most Remain Conservative constituency and is also safe enough to allow scope for a protest vote.

    Carshalton is likely to be different.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Sky News today pretty much playing a loop of HMQ visiting hospital in Manchester. I love how dire it is, it's heartwarming
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Let that sink in.

    A stop Brexit candidate in a near 80% Remain constituency is polling more than twice the Lib Dem figure.

    Tim Farron, you are a child doing an adult's job.

    When is he being roasted by Neil?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Let that sink in.

    A stop Brexit candidate in a near 80% Remain constituency is polling more than twice the Lib Dem figure.

    Tim Farron, you are a child doing an adult's job.

    Farron reminds me of a trendy vicar who is trying to 'get down with the kids'.

    He lacks a certain gravitas.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    rottenborough said:

    TGOHF said:

    172 doesn't keep Corbo in a job.

    Need another Con gaffe or two.

    All results keep Corbyn, he 'aint going until there's a hard left person on the next ticket.
    A lot of lefty nutjob conspiracy theorists are frothing and complaining about the terror attack being orchestrated by the Tories to stop their man sweeping into power.

    But surely it will be the perfect excuse to keep him as Labour leader at least - "he was gaining in the polls before Manchester" that sort of meme?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    tlg86 said:

    MarkSenior said:

    tlg86 said:

    MarkSenior said:

    tlg86 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?

    Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may
    It's on Rentouls twitter
    That's a pretty dreadful poll for the Lib Dems.
    ermm Lib Dems plus 7% on last GE , methinks you are somewhat blinkered .
    It depends if you believe the national polls. They show the Lib Dems holding on to around 60 to 65% of their 2015 vote. It's no good if it's being replaced with votes in places like this. Clegg is in big trouble.
    Dream On
    Paddy's offering a 44% return in two weeks if you're so confident of Clegg holding on.
    wow. they are way out of line there. best price elsewhere is 2/7. I wonder what they think they know.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Unless the allegations against him this time are far worse than last time, I really can't see the point of this. He's already been tried and served a lengthy sentence:

    The point of prosecuting suspected criminals is to bring them to justice for the crimes which they are accused of committing, so that they can be punished accordingly, whether by imprisonment or otherwise.

  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    eek said:

    Anorak said:

    rkrkrk said:

    williamglenn said:

    Trump is turning into Mr Anti-Brexit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/25/trump-worried-about-brexit-impact-on-us-jobs

    "It was reported that Trump had asked the German chancellor 10 times if he could negotiate a trade deal with Germany. Every time Merkel reportedly replied: “You can’t do a trade deal with Germany, only the EU.”

    That must have been pretty awkward...
    It's late-period Reagan all over again. Not entirely joking.
    There is a lot of evidence / comments from multiple different sources that Trump already has similar issues..... There is a marked change in vocabulary if you compare his speeches from the 1990's and now, and then you have the example above...

    I seriously expect Trump to retire on medical grounds in 2019...
    As late as that?
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    As I was walking to the minute's silence in Croydon this morning, I found that my brain was spontaneously writing a song, to the tune of "Umi Yukaba":

    We're all Manchester
    We are all Manchester
    Today, yesterday,
    Tomorrow, and forever.
    Today, we remember;
    Tomorrow, we will strive;
    We never will give in.
This discussion has been closed.