Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?
Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may It's on Rentouls twitter
Yes with named candidates sample size only 503 . Fieldwork before the Labour boost in polls and pre Manchester of course .
Sounds about right. Not much movement in London except LD gaining somewhat at the expense of the Tories who gobbled their 2015 votes en masse
Gaining ground at the expense of Tories in what is by some way the most Remain Conservative constituency and is also safe enough to allow scope for a protest vote.
Carshalton is likely to be different.
If the Conservatives are losing ground slightly in places like Kensington and Battersea, they'll be gaining extra ground in Labour Leave seats.
MI5 have 500 investigations ongoing and 3000 suspects. When Andy Burnham equates this attack on Manchester to murder of Jo Cox he is talking utter bullshit.
All results keep Corbyn, he 'aint going until there's a hard left person on the next ticket.
A lot of lefty nutjob conspiracy theorists are frothing and complaining about the terror attack being orchestrated by the Tories to stop their man sweeping into power.
But surely it will be the perfect excuse to keep him as Labour leader at least - "he was gaining in the polls before Manchester" that sort of meme?
This was shared by one of my nutjob friends on facebook earlier..
As I was walking to the minute's silence in Croydon this morning, I found that my brain was spontaneously writing a song, to the tune of "Umi Yukaba":
We're all Manchester We are all Manchester Today, yesterday, Tomorrow, and forever. Today, we remember; Tomorrow, we will strive; We never will give in.
Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?
Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may It's on Rentouls twitter
That's a pretty dreadful poll for the Lib Dems.
ermm Lib Dems plus 7% on last GE , methinks you are somewhat blinkered .
It depends if you believe the national polls. They show the Lib Dems holding on to around 60 to 65% of their 2015 vote. It's no good if it's being replaced with votes in places like this. Clegg is in big trouble.
Dream On
Paddy's offering a 44% return in two weeks if you're so confident of Clegg holding on.
wow. they are way out of line there. best price elsewhere is 2/7. I wonder what they think they know.
They don't. Clegg is definitely vulnerable but he isn't THAT vulnerable. Anyway I've clovered the seat (Except the Tories) and it acts as a hedge against my weighted low overall seat position.
Plus you get me working to help the bet on Saturday.
Unless the allegations against him this time are far worse than last time, I really can't see the point of this. He's already been tried and served a lengthy sentence:
The point of prosecuting suspected criminals is to bring them to justice for the crimes which they are accused of committing, so that they can be punished accordingly, whether by imprisonment or otherwise.
And, frankly,he had the opportunity to ask for other offences to be taken into consideration.
Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?
Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may It's on Rentouls twitter
That's a pretty dreadful poll for the Lib Dems.
ermm Lib Dems plus 7% on last GE , methinks you are somewhat blinkered .
It depends if you believe the national polls. They show the Lib Dems holding on to around 60 to 65% of their 2015 vote. It's no good if it's being replaced with votes in places like this. Clegg is in big trouble.
Dream On
Paddy's offering a 44% return in two weeks if you're so confident of Clegg holding on.
wow. they are way out of line there. best price elsewhere is 2/7. I wonder what they think they know.
They don't. Clegg is definitely vulnerable but he isn't THAT vulnerable. Anyway I've clovered the seat (Except the Tories) and it acts as a hedge against my weighted low overall seat position.
Plus you get me working to help the bet on Saturday.
On topic I do not believe that the spreads are at all predictive. They are a current understanding of the likelihood of the result by those who have enough money to be betting on the result.
Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?
Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may It's on Rentouls twitter
That's a pretty dreadful poll for the Lib Dems.
ermm Lib Dems plus 7% on last GE , methinks you are somewhat blinkered .
It depends if you believe the national polls. They show the Lib Dems holding on to around 60 to 65% of their 2015 vote. It's no good if it's being replaced with votes in places like this. Clegg is in big trouble.
Dream On
Paddy's offering a 44% return in two weeks if you're so confident of Clegg holding on.
wow. they are way out of line there. best price elsewhere is 2/7. I wonder what they think they know.
They don't. Clegg is definitely vulnerable but he isn't THAT vulnerable. Anyway I've clovered the seat (Except the Tories) and it acts as a hedge against my weighted low overall seat position.
Plus you get me working to help the bet on Saturday.
I've had a nibble on the reds at 13/2.
£2 reds @ 25-1; £48.78 Clegg @ 4-9 (Both bet limits in case yr wondering)
If May gets a tiny majority and decides to resign she won't drive to Buckingham Palace on 9 June just as Cameron didn't the day after the EU ref. She would remain PM whilst Con chose a new leader - and thus she would be the winner of the "PM after the GE" market.
Ditto if there is a Con minority Government supported by DUP etc.
So, in my view, May to be PM after the GE is more likely than a Con Majority.
When the Exit Poll came out in 2015 showing 316 Con seats, Cameron was heavy odds on to be PM. Surely May would be in the same situation.
On topic I do not believe that the spreads are at all predictive. They are a current understanding of the likelihood of the result by those who have enough money to be betting on the result.
They are predictive of what these people believe will happen. Nothing more. They are, by their very nature, a self-selecting, small sample.
If May gets a tiny majority and decides to resign she won't drive to Buckingham Palace on 9 June just as Cameron didn't the day after the EU ref. She would remain PM whilst Con chose a new leader - and thus she would be the winner of the "PM after the GE" market.
Ditto if there is a Con minority Government supported by DUP etc.
So, in my view, May to be PM after the GE is more likely than a Con Majority.
On topic I do not believe that the spreads are at all predictive. They are a current understanding of the likelihood of the result by those who have enough money to be betting on the result.
Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?
Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may It's on Rentouls twitter
Yes with named candidates sample size only 503 . Fieldwork before the Labour boost in polls and pre Manchester of course .
Sounds about right. Not much movement in London except LD gaining somewhat at the expense of the Tories who gobbled their 2015 votes en masse
Gaining ground at the expense of Tories in what is by some way the most Remain Conservative constituency and is also safe enough to allow scope for a protest vote.
Carshalton is likely to be different.
If the Conservatives are losing ground slightly in places like Kensington and Battersea, they'll be gaining extra ground in Labour Leave seats.
Comparing the Remain vote in the Conservative battleground constituencies in London:
Hampstead 77% Tooting 75% Richmond 73% Ealing C 71% Westminster N 67% Twickenham 66% Kingston 59% Brentford 57% Harrow W 57% Enfield N 51% Croydon C 50% Sutton 49% Eltham 48% Ilford N 48% Erith 46% Carshalton 44% Dagenham 30%
The majority are more Leave than the London average.
Based on experience of constituency polls last time round, I think the Survation Battersea poll is probably best filed in the bin. Quite apart from anything else, the Stop Brexit indy ain't gonna get 17%.
On the subject of the spreads, don't forget IGIndex (the world's largest spread-betting company, mainly handling serious bets in the financial markets):
Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?
Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may It's on Rentouls twitter
That's a pretty dreadful poll for the Lib Dems.
ermm Lib Dems plus 7% on last GE , methinks you are somewhat blinkered .
It depends if you believe the national polls. They show the Lib Dems holding on to around 60 to 65% of their 2015 vote. It's no good if it's being replaced with votes in places like this. Clegg is in big trouble.
Dream On
Paddy's offering a 44% return in two weeks if you're so confident of Clegg holding on.
wow. they are way out of line there. best price elsewhere is 2/7. I wonder what they think they know.
They don't. Clegg is definitely vulnerable but he isn't THAT vulnerable. Anyway I've clovered the seat (Except the Tories) and it acts as a hedge against my weighted low overall seat position.
Plus you get me working to help the bet on Saturday.
I've had a nibble on the reds at 13/2.
£2 reds @ 25-1; £48.78 Clegg @ 4-9 (Both bet limits in case yr wondering)
Based on experience of constituency polls last time round, I think the Survation Battersea poll is probably best filed in the bin. Quite apart from anything else, the Stop Brexit indy ain't gonna get 17%.
On the subject of the spreads, don't forget IGIndex (the world's largest spread-betting company, mainly handling serious bets in the financial markets):
On the subject of the spreads, don't forget IGIndex (the world's largest spread-betting company, mainly handling serious bets in the financial markets):
All results keep Corbyn, he 'aint going until there's a hard left person on the next ticket.
A lot of lefty nutjob conspiracy theorists are frothing and complaining about the terror attack being orchestrated by the Tories to stop their man sweeping into power.
But surely it will be the perfect excuse to keep him as Labour leader at least - "he was gaining in the polls before Manchester" that sort of meme?
This was shared by one of my nutjob friends on facebook earlier..
It saddens me that I expect some of my acquaintances to share similar. I had a classic earlier where in 2 posts there was one about how couldn't get costs right in there manifesto, and then subsequently one about a conspiracy in Manchester. I always expect people to tend towards incompetence.
CCHQ should have funded some 'Stop Brexit' candidates in Richmond, Twickenham, Bath, Southport and anywhere else they're competing with the LibDems.
After the fun with election expenses, the Tories wouldn't go there.
Fun's not over with that, of course.
Indeed. Will we get a charging decision before the general election?
According to RobD the deadline to charge is mere days before GE.
If even half of what is rumoured about Tory shenanigans in Thanet are true, it's hard to see how there won't be a charge, but we shall see. So close to the GE would definitely be politically awkward.
CCHQ should have funded some 'Stop Brexit' candidates in Richmond, Twickenham, Bath, Southport and anywhere else they're competing with the LibDems.
After the fun with election expenses, the Tories wouldn't go there.
Fun's not over with that, of course.
Indeed. Will we get a charging decision before the general election?
According to RobD the deadline to charge is mere days before GE.
If even half of what is rumoured about Tory shenanigans in Thanet are true, it's hard to see how there won't be a charge, but we shall see. So close to the GE would definitely be politically awkward.
Mens rea. Mens rea.
If charges are brought will be another tough few days for Nick Timothy.
CCHQ should have funded some 'Stop Brexit' candidates in Richmond, Twickenham, Bath, Southport and anywhere else they're competing with the LibDems.
After the fun with election expenses, the Tories wouldn't go there.
Fun's not over with that, of course.
Indeed. Will we get a charging decision before the general election?
According to RobD the deadline to charge is mere days before GE.
If even half of what is rumoured about Tory shenanigans in Thanet are true, it's hard to see how there won't be a charge, but we shall see. So close to the GE would definitely be politically awkward.
Mens rea. Mens rea.
If charges are brought will be another tough few days for Nick Timothy.
Nick Timothy's beard is definitely longer than 5 inches.
MI5 have 500 investigations ongoing and 3000 suspects. When Andy Burnham equates this attack on Manchester to murder of Jo Cox he is talking utter bullshit.
No change there then. Failed MP failed leadership bid. Useless leadership campaign.
CCHQ should have funded some 'Stop Brexit' candidates in Richmond, Twickenham, Bath, Southport and anywhere else they're competing with the LibDems.
After the fun with election expenses, the Tories wouldn't go there.
Fun's not over with that, of course.
Indeed. Will we get a charging decision before the general election?
According to RobD the deadline to charge is mere days before GE.
If even half of what is rumoured about Tory shenanigans in Thanet are true, it's hard to see how there won't be a charge, but we shall see. So close to the GE would definitely be politically awkward.
Mens rea. Mens rea.
Is that latin for 'Tories bought the election'?
In all seriousness, given it seems quantifiably more extreme than the other examples, probably harder to argue simple cluelessness, and easier to argue intent, but of course the reality may be tricker than what it seems.
CCHQ should have funded some 'Stop Brexit' candidates in Richmond, Twickenham, Bath, Southport and anywhere else they're competing with the LibDems.
After the fun with election expenses, the Tories wouldn't go there.
Fun's not over with that, of course.
Indeed. Will we get a charging decision before the general election?
According to RobD the deadline to charge is mere days before GE.
If even half of what is rumoured about Tory shenanigans in Thanet are true, it's hard to see how there won't be a charge, but we shall see. So close to the GE would definitely be politically awkward.
Mens rea. Mens rea.
Is that latin for 'Tories bought the election'?
In all seriousness, given it seems quantifiably more extreme than the other examples, probably harder to argue simple cluelessness, and easier to argue intent, but of course the reality may be tricker than what it seems.
CCHQ should have funded some 'Stop Brexit' candidates in Richmond, Twickenham, Bath, Southport and anywhere else they're competing with the LibDems.
After the fun with election expenses, the Tories wouldn't go there.
Fun's not over with that, of course.
Indeed. Will we get a charging decision before the general election?
According to RobD the deadline to charge is mere days before GE.
If even half of what is rumoured about Tory shenanigans in Thanet are true, it's hard to see how there won't be a charge, but we shall see. So close to the GE would definitely be politically awkward.
Mens rea. Mens rea.
Is that latin for 'Tories bought the election'?
In all seriousness, given it seems quantifiably more extreme than the other examples, probably harder to argue simple cluelessness, and easier to argue intent, but of course the reality may be tricker than what it seems.
I expect by this time next week, Labour will be going full throttle on "their" NHS and police numbers. I'm not sure people are in the mood, if my bus-stop conversations are anything to go by.
CCHQ should have funded some 'Stop Brexit' candidates in Richmond, Twickenham, Bath, Southport and anywhere else they're competing with the LibDems.
After the fun with election expenses, the Tories wouldn't go there.
Fun's not over with that, of course.
Indeed. Will we get a charging decision before the general election?
According to RobD the deadline to charge is mere days before GE.
If even half of what is rumoured about Tory shenanigans in Thanet are true, it's hard to see how there won't be a charge, but we shall see. So close to the GE would definitely be politically awkward.
Mens rea. Mens rea.
Is that latin for 'Tories bought the election'?
In all seriousness, given it seems quantifiably more extreme than the other examples, probably harder to argue simple cluelessness, and easier to argue intent, but of course the reality may be tricker than what it seems.
Did Mens Rea die in vain?
Probably, just like that woman who died to give us free rights in Britain, Margo Carter or something.
I expect by this time next week, Labour will be going full throttle on "their" NHS and police numbers. I'm not sure people are in the mood, if my bus-stop conversations are anything to go by.
LD leaflet in Devizes today all about the NHS and social care. Which in fairnesss does dare mention they want to raise income tax to pay for changes.
Based on experience of constituency polls last time round, I think the Survation Battersea poll is probably best filed in the bin. Quite apart from anything else, the Stop Brexit indy ain't gonna get 17%.
On the subject of the spreads, don't forget IGIndex (the world's largest spread-betting company, mainly handling serious bets in the financial markets):
Currently slightly different to the SPIN and SpreadEx prices:
Con 386-392 Lab 170-175 LD 13-15.5 SNP 43.5-46.5
Yes, IG are 2/3 seats more bullish than Sporting/Spreadex on the Tories and 2 seats more bearish on Labour .... which can be handy if you're looking to narrow the spreads. Speaking of which, IG are operating a five seat spread on Labour, compared with 6 seats from the other 2 firms. Until IG entered the GE Seats markets in 2015, both its much smaller competitors were offering TEN SEAT spreads on both the main parties .... talk about taking candy off a baby!
Given the likes of Google and Facebook have AI that can identity people in photos, you would think companies would use a similar service to check against user sent content.
CCHQ should have funded some 'Stop Brexit' candidates in Richmond, Twickenham, Bath, Southport and anywhere else they're competing with the LibDems.
After the fun with election expenses, the Tories wouldn't go there.
Fun's not over with that, of course.
Indeed. Will we get a charging decision before the general election?
According to RobD the deadline to charge is mere days before GE.
If even half of what is rumoured about Tory shenanigans in Thanet are true, it's hard to see how there won't be a charge, but we shall see. So close to the GE would definitely be politically awkward.
Mens rea. Mens rea.
Is that latin for 'Tories bought the election'?
In all seriousness, given it seems quantifiably more extreme than the other examples, probably harder to argue simple cluelessness, and easier to argue intent, but of course the reality may be tricker than what it seems.
On topic I do not believe that the spreads are at all predictive. They are a current understanding of the likelihood of the result by those who have enough money to be betting on the result.
The spreads underestimated the Blues in 2015.
Yes, spreads reflect received wisdom of the above group. This site is surely a key driver in the betting markets in this country and looking back through the threads prior to last election the polls were never settled.
Reviewing the site you would have predicted around a parity in votes with the particularly keen narrative of the Yougov daily - the graph in the attached shows what I mean
Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?
Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may It's on Rentouls twitter
Yes with named candidates sample size only 503 . Fieldwork before the Labour boost in polls and pre Manchester of course .
Sounds about right. Not much movement in London except LD gaining somewhat at the expense of the Tories who gobbled their 2015 votes en masse
Gaining ground at the expense of Tories in what is by some way the most Remain Conservative constituency and is also safe enough to allow scope for a protest vote.
Carshalton is likely to be different.
If the Conservatives are losing ground slightly in places like Kensington and Battersea, they'll be gaining extra ground in Labour Leave seats.
Comparing the Remain vote in the Conservative battleground constituencies in London:
Hampstead 77% Tooting 75% Richmond 73% Ealing C 71% Westminster N 67% Twickenham 66% Kingston 59% Brentford 57% Harrow W 57% Enfield N 51% Croydon C 50% Sutton 49% Eltham 48% Ilford N 48% Erith 46% Carshalton 44% Dagenham 30%
The majority are more Leave than the London average.
And while Hampstead is very Remain, the residents are not that keen on Corbyn's brand of socialism.
On topic I do not believe that the spreads are at all predictive. They are a current understanding of the likelihood of the result by those who have enough money to be betting on the result.
The spreads underestimated the Blues in 2015.
Yes, spreads reflect received wisdom of the above group. This site is surely a key driver in the betting markets in this country and looking back through the threads prior to last election the polls were never settled.
Reviewing the site you would have predicted around a parity in votes with the particularly keen narrative of the Yougov daily - the graph in the attached shows what I mean
All results keep Corbyn, he 'aint going until there's a hard left person on the next ticket.
A lot of lefty nutjob conspiracy theorists are frothing and complaining about the terror attack being orchestrated by the Tories to stop their man sweeping into power.
But surely it will be the perfect excuse to keep him as Labour leader at least - "he was gaining in the polls before Manchester" that sort of meme?
This was shared by one of my nutjob friends on facebook earlier..
It does look as if living in the 21st Century is all far too much for some people. Perhaps, being charitable, its something to do with being bombarded by radio waves a relatively recent phenomenon, which are frying the cognitive areas of the brain of the thin skulled. Or perhaps resonances are being set up in the heads of the thick skulled?
Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?
Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 may It's on Rentouls twitter
Yes with named candidates sample size only 503 . Fieldwork before the Labour boost in polls and pre Manchester of course .
Sounds about right. Not much movement in London except LD gaining somewhat at the expense of the Tories who gobbled their 2015 votes en masse
Gaining ground at the expense of Tories in what is by some way the most Remain Conservative constituency and is also safe enough to allow scope for a protest vote.
Carshalton is likely to be different.
If the Conservatives are losing ground slightly in places like Kensington and Battersea, they'll be gaining extra ground in Labour Leave seats.
Comparing the Remain vote in the Conservative battleground constituencies in London:
Hampstead 77% Tooting 75% Richmond 73% Ealing C 71% Westminster N 67% Twickenham 66% Kingston 59% Brentford 57% Harrow W 57% Enfield N 51% Croydon C 50% Sutton 49% Eltham 48% Ilford N 48% Erith 46% Carshalton 44% Dagenham 30%
The majority are more Leave than the London average.
And while Hampstead is very Remain, the residents are not that keen on Corbyn's brand of socialism.
I find that surprising; surely Glenda wasn't a million miles away in ideology and [quick google] - is a fan...
Based on experience of constituency polls last time round, I think the Survation Battersea poll is probably best filed in the bin. Quite apart from anything else, the Stop Brexit indy ain't gonna get 17%.
On the subject of the spreads, don't forget IGIndex (the world's largest spread-betting company, mainly handling serious bets in the financial markets):
Currently slightly different to the SPIN and SpreadEx prices:
Con 386-392 Lab 170-175 LD 13-15.5 SNP 43.5-46.5
Yes, IG are 2/3 seats more bullish than Sporting/Spreadex on the Tories and 2 seats more bearish on Labour .... which can be handy if you're looking to narrow the spreads. Speaking of which, IG are operating a five seat spread on Labour, compared with 6 seats from the other 2 firms. Until IG entered the GE Seats markets in 2015, both its much smaller competitors were offering TEN SEAT spreads on both the main parties .... talk about taking candy off a baby!
There are still untradably wide really. Bring back Spreadfair..
Comments
https://twitter.com/nontolerantman/status/867084697884602370
MI5 have 500 investigations ongoing and 3000 suspects. When Andy Burnham equates this attack on Manchester to murder of Jo Cox he is talking utter bullshit.
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2017/05/23/man22/
Plus you get me working to help the bet on Saturday.
If May gets a tiny majority and decides to resign she won't drive to Buckingham Palace on 9 June just as Cameron didn't the day after the EU ref. She would remain PM whilst Con chose a new leader - and thus she would be the winner of the "PM after the GE" market.
Ditto if there is a Con minority Government supported by DUP etc.
So, in my view, May to be PM after the GE is more likely than a Con Majority.
When the Exit Poll came out in 2015 showing 316 Con seats, Cameron was heavy odds on to be PM. Surely May would be in the same situation.
They are, by their very nature, a self-selecting, small sample.
Hampstead 77%
Tooting 75%
Richmond 73%
Ealing C 71%
Westminster N 67%
Twickenham 66%
Kingston 59%
Brentford 57%
Harrow W 57%
Enfield N 51%
Croydon C 50%
Sutton 49%
Eltham 48%
Ilford N 48%
Erith 46%
Carshalton 44%
Dagenham 30%
The majority are more Leave than the London average.
On the subject of the spreads, don't forget IGIndex (the world's largest spread-betting company, mainly handling serious bets in the financial markets):
https://www.ig.com/uk/general-election-2017
Currently slightly different to the SPIN and SpreadEx prices:
Con 386-392
Lab 170-175
LD 13-15.5
SNP 43.5-46.5
Also saying NATO needs to look at immigration
Lab under 177.5 at 11/10 Betfair
If even half of what is rumoured about Tory shenanigans in Thanet are true, it's hard to see how there won't be a charge, but we shall see. So close to the GE would definitely be politically awkward.
If charges are brought will be another tough few days for Nick Timothy.
Edit: Apart from Clacton.
In all seriousness, given it seems quantifiably more extreme than the other examples, probably harder to argue simple cluelessness, and easier to argue intent, but of course the reality may be tricker than what it seems.
https://twitter.com/walkers_crisps/status/867751447819157505
Speaking of which, IG are operating a five seat spread on Labour, compared with 6 seats from the other 2 firms.
Until IG entered the GE Seats markets in 2015, both its much smaller competitors were offering TEN SEAT spreads on both the main parties .... talk about taking candy off a baby!
Plus, there's more Leave constituencies than Remain constituencies.
https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/867760174655840256
Reviewing the site you would have predicted around a parity in votes with the particularly keen narrative of the Yougov daily - the graph in the attached shows what I mean
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/05/06/final-call-conservatives-and-labour-tied/
His reliance on the votes of people he clearly utterly detests is sickening.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/25/raf-crew-write-love-manchester-bomb-destined-islamic-state/
Peter Kellner's final prediction is good for a laugh though.
https://twitter.com/JamesLiamCook/status/867756047175487488
https://twitter.com/SteveKopack/status/867758571882258432
Poor Gary. He sold his soul to walkers.
Tooth FairyLibDems!& No sex during daylight hours in ramadan. Interesting piece of trivia I didn't know previously !
You have to either fast for a further two months or feed 60 poor people.