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124

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  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    IanB2 said:

    What some police officers have been dealing with in Greater Manchester today

    https://twitter.com/GMPMiddleton/status/867771197232164864

    Sounds like one of Heston's recipes gone wrong? Posting it through your neighbour's letterbox when the recipe goes wrong is, however, proper naughty.
    Deliveroo mixup.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    MTimT said:

    Actually, it is pretty funny. Just goes to show that you can't predict what will happen once you involve the public.
    Oh, that could have been predicted.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited May 2017
    IanB2 said:

    woody662 said:

    Shame it's illegal to report sampling of postal votes. Soooo interesting.

    In practice it is pretty much impossible to do, anyhow, since the papers are verified face down.
    Last few verifications I did we were instructed to do it face up. Which surprised me, as I was sure it is supposed to be face down. Is the face down rule just for postal votes?
  • SandraMSandraM Posts: 206
    IanB2 said:

    What some police officers have been dealing with in Greater Manchester today

    https://twitter.com/GMPMiddleton/status/867771197232164864

    Sounds like one of Heston's recipes gone wrong? Posting it through your neighbour's letterbox when the recipe goes wrong is, however, proper naughty.
    Did the cat eat it and then was sick?

  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Ms. Apocalypse, which constituency is that?

    Mr. Cumbria, boo! I bet the Fish Finger would've been brill.

    Battersea
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,366
    woody662 said:

    Shame it's illegal to report sampling of postal votes. Soooo interesting.

    Och, I'm sure you'll be fine.

    'No prosecutions over referendum postal vote tally, confirm prosecutors

    NO-ONE will face prosecution over allegations that electoral secrecy laws were broken by pro-union campaigners counting postal votes ahead of last year’s independence referendum .
    The Crown Office has confirmed that the issue is “now closed” after a police investigation stemmed from comments made by Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson in a television interview just after the polls closed on September 18 last year.
    She said the Better Together campaign had been “incredibly encouraged” by what she described as “sample opening” of postal votes.'

    http://tinyurl.com/mys43zj
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Ms. Apocalypse, cheers.

    I do fear the Lib Dems may go backwards at this election.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144

    Ms. Apocalypse, cheers.

    I do fear the Lib Dems may go backwards at this election.

    Fear? It is something to be rejoiced. :smiley:
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    IanB2 said:

    I'm cackling that the Stop Brexit candidate is polling 9% more than the LDs :lol:

    I'd venture the suggestion that, confronted on your PC or mobile device's screen with three names that most voters won't have heard of plus the familiar party names, and a fourth that clearly contains a message/policy, does magnify significantly the proportion of people who would click the "anti Brexit" candidate in an area like Battersea. The take away from this is that, in this atypical Inner London seat at least, concern about Brexit is still a very salient issue.

    I don't believe the percentage of people clicking against this candidate in an online poll will translate into the same number of real votes when people come to fill in their ballot papers.
    Well, hopefully for the LD's sake you're right!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    RobD said:

    Ms. Apocalypse, cheers.

    I do fear the Lib Dems may go backwards at this election.

    Fear? It is something to be rejoiced. :smiley:
    For Tories it is.

    For those of us who'd like some kind of effective opposition to the Conservatives - it isn't.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    edited May 2017
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    woody662 said:

    Shame it's illegal to report sampling of postal votes. Soooo interesting.

    In practice it is pretty much impossible to do, anyhow, since the papers are verified face down.
    Last few verifications I did we were instructed to do it face up. Which surprised me, as I was sure it is supposed to be face down. Is the face down rule just for postal votes?
    The rules are that postal votes are verified face down (since the object is to confirm the voter's ID whilst preserving the secrecy of their vote) whilst polling station votes are verified face up (to keep secret the ballot paper ID numbers on the back).

    Sending people to observe postal vote verifications is a waste of time, and most of the time the parties don't bother. Now and again some young activist gets sent just in case, and if s/he is lucky he catches a glimpse of three or four papers as they are pulled out of envelopes before being turned face down. When s/he gets back to HQ she is pumped for information by people desperately keen for any sign as to how things are going, so says something along the lines of "well, I didn't see much, but the few papers I saw seemed very Tory" (or whatever). Chinese whispers does the rest and pretty soon the story that "the Tories have won the postal vote" is circulating amongst activists.

    It's always bulls**t and best ignored.

    The only way you can assess the postal vote is to do a good tally of the verification of polling station votes (which if done well can count a majority of them) and then compare your tally with the declared result, the discrepancy being due to the postal votes.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Given that local campaigning has started again, it would be good to get some impartial, objective reports of any discernible changes on the doorstep compared to a few days ago.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. D, if Corbyn stays and the PLP won't split, we may have another terrible choice at the next election. A saner alternative on the left would be a good thing.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106

    TGOHF said:

    Steve Bell is about as funny as AIDs.

    To this day, I'm not sure of Matt's political affiliations.

    That's the sign of a good cartoonist.
    +1

    Matt pokes fun at his subjects. Steve Bell just sneers at them in his own smug way.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    isam said:
    The idea that the government might be milking it with a multi-day suspension has been aired on this very same pb, of course, bolstered by erudite contrasts with previous terrorist attacks and, indeed, wars.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    What does this mean?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    edited May 2017
    Ms. Apocalypse, are you saying I'm not a PB Tory any more?

    But... will I still be able to eat babies?

    Mr. Scrapheap, indeed.

    Edited extra bit: and it's a ridiculous 16C at night in Leeds tonight. *sighs*
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,283
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Ms. Apocalypse, are you saying I'm not a PB Tory any more?

    But... will I still be able to eat babies?

    Mr. Scrapheap, indeed.

    Are you a Tory?

    I thought you were a floating voter.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Completed a Yougov VI poll this afternoon.

    Messages seem to come up on PB saying that someone or other has taken part in a poll with considerable regularity. It's no wonder they have trouble coming up with the right answers sometimes if they rely on such unrepresentative samples.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348

    What does this mean?
    I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,535

    What does this mean?
    Embargoed news release?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Ms. Apocalypse, the joke is that *everyone* here gets accused of being a PB Tory [NB different to being a Conservative]. Happened to Greens, Kippers etc etc etc.

    I'd quite like an alternative to May. The problem I have is that the alternatives are even worse.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,527
    That's today's LOL moment, just love it when companies and organisations don't get social media.

    Hint: anything that's relying on public display of unmoderated user-submitted content will quickly descend into the gutter. This was first reported half a dozen years ago and people still haven't leaned.
    http://www.pmc.aut.ac.nz/articles/twelephant-room-anti-social-media-journalism-conference
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    What does this mean?
    I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm
    I can't believe the blue team will go for reds for security matters at this point so more inclined to believe someone in the reds or yellows is going all 'mark senior'.... total guess though.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289

    IanB2 said:

    I'm cackling that the Stop Brexit candidate is polling 9% more than the LDs :lol:

    I'd venture the suggestion that, confronted on your PC or mobile device's screen with three names that most voters won't have heard of plus the familiar party names, and a fourth that clearly contains a message/policy, does magnify significantly the proportion of people who would click the "anti Brexit" candidate in an area like Battersea. The take away from this is that, in this atypical Inner London seat at least, concern about Brexit is still a very salient issue.

    I don't believe the percentage of people clicking against this candidate in an online poll will translate into the same number of real votes when people come to fill in their ballot papers.
    Well, hopefully for the LD's sake you're right!
    Since they're not going to win Battersea, it doesn't really matter either way.

    Personally (as a LibDem) I think the campaign so far has been pitiful. But, looking on the bright side, if Brexit does go seriously bad, we are at least very well positoned to mop up the "we told you so" vote in a few years' time.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    What does this mean?
    I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm
    I'm going to guess it's more attacking the other party, than announcing their own policy, for it to be regarded as the truce well and truly off.

    Just guessing but a Tory attack on Corbyn's terrorist sympathising history.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Somebody has, and it'll probably be really stupid.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    If this poll shows Labour seriously closing in the Conservatives (I presume that's what he's implying now thinking about it) then WTH? I won't even know what to say about May anymore.

    Alternatively, it could be a v bad poll for Labour, but would that be newsworthy?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,283
    Ugh, I was going to have an early night but that's tempting me to stay up.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I'm cackling that the Stop Brexit candidate is polling 9% more than the LDs :lol:

    I'd venture the suggestion that, confronted on your PC or mobile device's screen with three names that most voters won't have heard of plus the familiar party names, and a fourth that clearly contains a message/policy, does magnify significantly the proportion of people who would click the "anti Brexit" candidate in an area like Battersea. The take away from this is that, in this atypical Inner London seat at least, concern about Brexit is still a very salient issue.

    I don't believe the percentage of people clicking against this candidate in an online poll will translate into the same number of real votes when people come to fill in their ballot papers.
    Well, hopefully for the LD's sake you're right!
    Since they're not going to win Battersea, it doesn't really matter either way.

    Personally (as a LibDem) I think the campaign so far has been pitiful. But, looking on the bright side, if Brexit does go seriously bad, we are at least very well positoned to mop up the "we told you so" vote in a few years' time.
    You'd think so, but many thought they'd be well placed to mop up the continuity remain vote and they haven't, and people don't always reward those they perhaps should, after making a mistake.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,535

    What does this mean?
    I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm
    I'm going to guess it's more attacking the other party, than announcing their own policy, for it to be regarded as the truce well and truly off.

    Just guessing but a Tory attack on Corbyn's terrorist sympathising history.
    Not sure that wouldn't be a mistake so close to the terrible event.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144

    If this poll shows Labour seriously closing in the Conservatives (I presume that's what he's implying now thinking about it) then WTH? I won't even know what to say about May anymore.

    Alternatively, it could be a v bad poll for Labour, but would that be newsworthy?

    It's a poll?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,535
    calum said:
    Sounds like Labout attack then - they are only ones with hard-core idealogy. I suppose could be LibDems saying leaving EU caused Manchester?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited May 2017

    isam said:
    The idea that the government might be milking it with a multi-day suspension has been aired on this very same pb, of course, bolstered by erudite contrasts with previous terrorist attacks and, indeed, wars.
    If that really is the best response Labour can muster, they need to go home, sit in a darkened room and wait for the inevitable catastrophe.

    They must wait to be thrashed by the most wooden and mediocre PM in history.

    There are real issues to be debated, but the crassness and shallowness of our political parties really does overwhelm everything.

    Radical Islam was fostered by the West, energised by Iraq & emboldened by the stupid meddling in Syria and Libya. Look at Labour's hands, look at Theresa's hands. They are the same red colour.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348

    What does this mean?
    I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm
    I can't believe the blue team will go for reds for security matters at this point so more inclined to believe someone in the reds or yellows is going all 'mark senior'.... total guess though.
    YouGov have released some polling, conducted Mon and Tuesday of this week

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/867781690449678336
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/867780304903094272

    Thanks to Nick Timothy putting a Nimitz class sized barnacle on the Tory boat, I fear the Blue meanies might have to throw a dead lion onto the table
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Anyway, too humid so I'm off.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I'm cackling that the Stop Brexit candidate is polling 9% more than the LDs :lol:

    I'd venture the suggestion that, confronted on your PC or mobile device's screen with three names that most voters won't have heard of plus the familiar party names, and a fourth that clearly contains a message/policy, does magnify significantly the proportion of people who would click the "anti Brexit" candidate in an area like Battersea. The take away from this is that, in this atypical Inner London seat at least, concern about Brexit is still a very salient issue.

    I don't believe the percentage of people clicking against this candidate in an online poll will translate into the same number of real votes when people come to fill in their ballot papers.
    Well, hopefully for the LD's sake you're right!
    Since they're not going to win Battersea, it doesn't really matter either way.

    Personally (as a LibDem) I think the campaign so far has been pitiful. But, looking on the bright side, if Brexit does go seriously bad, we are at least very well positoned to mop up the "we told you so" vote in a few years' time.
    I think Brexit will be disaster, there's nothing I've seen of May this campaign that gives me hope that she can negotiate a Brexit which at the very least isn't a disaster.

    Looks like I've interpreted that Harry Cole tweet wrongly, and it's related to a story/policy announcement. Imagine if Nick Timothy has thought of yet *another* bright idea. Should be a few interesting hours to the build up, anyway....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    RobD said:

    Ms. Apocalypse, cheers.

    I do fear the Lib Dems may go backwards at this election.

    Fear? It is something to be rejoiced. :smiley:
    You have a funny view of democracy if you think that seeing a party that typically attracts the support of 10-20% of British voters being reduced to fewer than 9 out of 650 MPs is a good thing.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    Harry Cole‏Verified account @MrHarryCole 3m3 minutes ago
    Harry Cole Retweeted Harry Cole
    There could have been a few days campaigning grace before politicians tried to pin Manchester to their own hard core ideology. But no...
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534

    What does this mean?
    I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm
    I'm going to guess it's more attacking the other party, than announcing their own policy, for it to be regarded as the truce well and truly off.

    Just guessing but a Tory attack on Corbyn's terrorist sympathising history.
    My money's on an uber smear job, that this far out comes from the comrades.

    Crosby will keep his powder try until the last week and until there are decent reads post Manchester

    Comrades on the other hand should be pretty desperate if they actually want to win and believe all their bubble propaganda
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    If this poll shows Labour seriously closing in the Conservatives (I presume that's what he's implying now thinking about it) then WTH? I won't even know what to say about May anymore.

    Alternatively, it could be a v bad poll for Labour, but would that be newsworthy?

    If a poll does show Labour closing in, I just don't understand anything - I get the explanation behind the recent surge, even though it baffles me a bit, and I don't know why recent events would necessarily change things a great deal either way, but a Labour rise?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    edited May 2017
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Ms. Apocalypse, cheers.

    I do fear the Lib Dems may go backwards at this election.

    Fear? It is something to be rejoiced. :smiley:
    You have a funny view of democracy if you think that seeing a party that typically attracts the support of 10-20% of British voters being reduced to fewer than 9 out of 650 MPs is a good thing.
    Looks like it is on course to get less than 10% now though.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    calum said:
    Sounds like Labout attack then - they are only ones with hard-core idealogy. I suppose could be LibDems saying leaving EU caused Manchester?
    UKIP?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    RobD said:

    If this poll shows Labour seriously closing in the Conservatives (I presume that's what he's implying now thinking about it) then WTH? I won't even know what to say about May anymore.

    Alternatively, it could be a v bad poll for Labour, but would that be newsworthy?

    It's a poll?
    I assumed it was (wrongly, it seems).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited May 2017

    calum said:
    Sounds like Labout attack then - they are only ones with hard-core idealogy. I suppose could be LibDems saying leaving EU caused Manchester?
    Depends what he means by ideology. If he just means 'their ideas' it could just as easily be Tories deciding to go hard on Corbyn. Who knows?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    A political attack by either main party this soon after Manchester may backfire spectacularly.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017

    If this poll shows Labour seriously closing in the Conservatives (I presume that's what he's implying now thinking about it) then WTH? I won't even know what to say about May anymore.

    Alternatively, it could be a v bad poll for Labour, but would that be newsworthy?

    It may not be a poll.

    The tories going for Corbyn's jugular is my guess.

    I recon Lynton's decided a massive partisan *terrorism* fight will work in TM's favour.

    Just a guess.

    But the sun would be the paper of choice if they wanted to lob grenades in the C2DE playground.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    saddo said:

    What does this mean?
    I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm
    I'm going to guess it's more attacking the other party, than announcing their own policy, for it to be regarded as the truce well and truly off.

    Just guessing but a Tory attack on Corbyn's terrorist sympathising history.
    My money's on an uber smear job, that this far out comes from the comrades.

    Crosby will keep his powder try until the last week and until there are decent reads post Manchester

    Comrades on the other hand should be pretty desperate if they actually want to win and believe all their bubble propaganda
    Yeah the second Tweet now makes me think Comrades too. Tories would be attacking the other parties hardcore ideology not using their own.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    edited May 2017
    Pong said:

    If this poll shows Labour seriously closing in the Conservatives (I presume that's what he's implying now thinking about it) then WTH? I won't even know what to say about May anymore.

    Alternatively, it could be a v bad poll for Labour, but would that be newsworthy?

    It may not be a poll.

    The tories going for Corbyn's jugular is my guess.

    I recon Lynton's decided a massive partisan *terrorism* fight will work in TM's favour.
    Cole's second tweet talks about a hardcore ideology. That doesn't sound like the Tories. But what do I know!
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I'm cackling that the Stop Brexit candidate is polling 9% more than the LDs :lol:

    I'd venture the suggestion that, confronted on your PC or mobile device's screen with three names that most voters won't have heard of plus the familiar party names, and a fourth that clearly contains a message/policy, does magnify significantly the proportion of people who would click the "anti Brexit" candidate in an area like Battersea. The take away from this is that, in this atypical Inner London seat at least, concern about Brexit is still a very salient issue.

    I don't believe the percentage of people clicking against this candidate in an online poll will translate into the same number of real votes when people come to fill in their ballot papers.
    Well, hopefully for the LD's sake you're right!
    Since they're not going to win Battersea, it doesn't really matter either way.

    Personally (as a LibDem) I think the campaign so far has been pitiful. But, looking on the bright side, if Brexit does go seriously bad, we are at least very well positoned to mop up the "we told you so" vote in a few years' time.
    I agree on both points.
    I also think that the LibDems would be well advised to not go full-on "Let's rejoin the EU", but instead to propose that links are strengthened with Europe in a major way - for example, signing up to the single market.

    Salami tactics are the key if the LibDems want to get the UK back in the EU fold (bearing in mind that greater integration would be required to rejoin in the future, such as committing to the Euro).
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Corbyn has his Andrew Neil interview tomorrow - assuming it goes ahead which seems likely now.

    Surely he would want to get through that before Lab says anything remotely controversial re Manchester.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,527
    calum said:
    Given that Mr Cole is of the right wing and works for the Sun, that reference to 'hard core ideology' suggests it's someone on the left that's about to unleash a verbal attack.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    What does this mean?
    I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm
    I'm going to guess it's more attacking the other party, than announcing their own policy, for it to be regarded as the truce well and truly off.

    Just guessing but a Tory attack on Corbyn's terrorist sympathising history.
    That would be incredibly stupid.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    What does this mean?
    I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm
    I can't believe the blue team will go for reds for security matters at this point so more inclined to believe someone in the reds or yellows is going all 'mark senior'.... total guess though.
    YouGov have released some polling, conducted Mon and Tuesday of this week

    htts://twitter.com/YouGov/status/867781690449678336
    htts://twitter.com/YouGov/status/867780304903094272

    Thanks to Nick Timothy putting a Nimitz class sized barnacle on the Tory boat, I fear the Blue meanies might have to throw a dead lion onto the table
    Theresa May decided to include it!

    And the Tory manifesto was not all about spend spend spend, of course more negative policies cut through.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    MikeL said:

    Corbyn has his Andrew Neil interview tomorrow - assuming it goes ahead which seems likely now.

    Surely he would want to get through that before Lab says anything remotely controversial re Manchester.

    Dead cat? :p
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683

    What does this mean?
    I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm
    I can't believe the blue team will go for reds for security matters at this point so more inclined to believe someone in the reds or yellows is going all 'mark senior'.... total guess though.
    YouGov have released some polling, conducted Mon and Tuesday of this week

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/867781690449678336
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/867780304903094272

    Thanks to Nick Timothy putting a Nimitz class sized barnacle on the Tory boat, I fear the Blue meanies might have to throw a dead lion onto the table
    Depends how you define positive, reducing immigration, going ahead with Brexit and means testing winter fuel allowance are all backed in polling
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    RobD said:

    If this poll shows Labour seriously closing in the Conservatives (I presume that's what he's implying now thinking about it) then WTH? I won't even know what to say about May anymore.

    Alternatively, it could be a v bad poll for Labour, but would that be newsworthy?

    It's a poll?
    I assumed it was (wrongly, it seems).
    I'm sure there'll be one at some point, which will be tagged as shocking, so the point still stands.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    kle4 said:

    What does this mean?
    I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm
    I can't believe the blue team will go for reds for security matters at this point so more inclined to believe someone in the reds or yellows is going all 'mark senior'.... total guess though.
    YouGov have released some polling, conducted Mon and Tuesday of this week

    htts://twitter.com/YouGov/status/867781690449678336
    htts://twitter.com/YouGov/status/867780304903094272

    Thanks to Nick Timothy putting a Nimitz class sized barnacle on the Tory boat, I fear the Blue meanies might have to throw a dead lion onto the table
    Theresa May decided to include it!

    And the Tory manifesto was not all about spend spend spend, of course more negative policies cut through.
    She's not very good.

    She needs to fire Rasputin PDQ
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    MikeL said:

    Corbyn has his Andrew Neil interview tomorrow - assuming it goes ahead which seems likely now.

    Surely he would want to get through that before Lab says anything remotely controversial re Manchester.

    Kate McCann‏Verified account @KateEMcCann 3m3 minutes ago
    More
    Westminster bridge closed, police investigating vehicle which has been left there unattended
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I'm cackling that the Stop Brexit candidate is polling 9% more than the LDs :lol:

    I'd venture the suggestion that, confronted on your PC or mobile device's screen with three names that most voters won't have heard of plus the familiar party names, and a fourth that clearly contains a message/policy, does magnify significantly the proportion of people who would click the "anti Brexit" candidate in an area like Battersea. The take away from this is that, in this atypical Inner London seat at least, concern about Brexit is still a very salient issue.

    I don't believe the percentage of people clicking against this candidate in an online poll will translate into the same number of real votes when people come to fill in their ballot papers.
    Well, hopefully for the LD's sake you're right!
    Since they're not going to win Battersea, it doesn't really matter either way.

    Personally (as a LibDem) I think the campaign so far has been pitiful. But, looking on the bright side, if Brexit does go seriously bad, we are at least very well positoned to mop up the "we told you so" vote in a few years' time.
    You'd think so, but many thought they'd be well placed to mop up the continuity remain vote and they haven't, and people don't always reward those they perhaps should, after making a mistake.
    The problem the LibDems have is that, despite all their obsession with tick-box positive discrimination, the party hierarchy is even more captured by a small group of middle class central and south west Londoners than is Labour. The national campaign is essentially assuming every seat is like Richmond.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    A political attack by either main party this soon after Manchester may backfire spectacularly.

    Quite possibly, although political attacks have to start in earnest at some point, and someone needs to test when is too soon.
  • Think there is a special Question Time from Manc at 10pm, presumably that's pre recorded, something may be coming in that which breaks the truce.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    If this poll shows Labour seriously closing in the Conservatives (I presume that's what he's implying now thinking about it) then WTH? I won't even know what to say about May anymore.

    Alternatively, it could be a v bad poll for Labour, but would that be newsworthy?

    It may not be a poll.

    The tories going for Corbyn's jugular is my guess.

    I recon Lynton's decided a massive partisan *terrorism* fight will work in TM's favour.
    Cole's second tweet talks about a hard code ideology. That doesn't sound like the Tories. But what do I know!
    Labour going after the Tories on Libya?

    "We (and especially our wicked leaders) are at fault for acts of terrorism against us" would be entirely in keeping with the Far Left world view. The so-called Stop the War Coalition (former chairman: Mr J Corbyn) has been taking that line for many years.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144

    kle4 said:

    What does this mean?
    I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm
    I can't believe the blue team will go for reds for security matters at this point so more inclined to believe someone in the reds or yellows is going all 'mark senior'.... total guess though.
    YouGov have released some polling, conducted Mon and Tuesday of this week

    htts://twitter.com/YouGov/status/867781690449678336
    htts://twitter.com/YouGov/status/867780304903094272

    Thanks to Nick Timothy putting a Nimitz class sized barnacle on the Tory boat, I fear the Blue meanies might have to throw a dead lion onto the table
    Theresa May decided to include it!

    And the Tory manifesto was not all about spend spend spend, of course more negative policies cut through.
    She's not very good.

    She needs to fire Rasputin PDQ
    Thanet South will give her the perfect reason.... :p
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Ms. Apocalypse, cheers.

    I do fear the Lib Dems may go backwards at this election.

    Fear? It is something to be rejoiced. :smiley:
    You have a funny view of democracy if you think that seeing a party that typically attracts the support of 10-20% of British voters being reduced to fewer than 9 out of 650 MPs is a good thing.
    Looks like it is on course to get less than 10% now though.
    So 50-60 MPs representing this point of view would not be an unreasonable expectation. We are supposed to live in a "representational democracy", after all.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Ms. Apocalypse, cheers.

    I do fear the Lib Dems may go backwards at this election.

    Fear? It is something to be rejoiced. :smiley:
    You have a funny view of democracy if you think that seeing a party that typically attracts the support of 10-20% of British voters being reduced to fewer than 9 out of 650 MPs is a good thing.
    Looks like it is on course to get less than 10% now though.
    So 50-60 MPs representing this point of view would not be an unreasonable expectation. We are supposed to live in a "representational democracy", after all.
    Are we? I thought it was a parliamentary democracy.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    If Labour are going to go all political on this then it is going to backfire hugely.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    IanB2 said:

    I'm cackling that the Stop Brexit candidate is polling 9% more than the LDs :lol:

    I'd venture the suggestion that, confronted on your PC or mobile device's screen with three names that most voters won't have heard of plus the familiar party names, and a fourth that clearly contains a message/policy, does magnify significantly the proportion of people who would click the "anti Brexit" candidate in an area like Battersea. The take away from this is that, in this atypical Inner London seat at least, concern about Brexit is still a very salient issue.

    I don't believe the percentage of people clicking against this candidate in an online poll will translate into the same number of real votes when people come to fill in their ballot papers.
    Well, hopefully for the LD's sake you're right!
    Which poll is being discussed here?
  • kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    If this poll shows Labour seriously closing in the Conservatives (I presume that's what he's implying now thinking about it) then WTH? I won't even know what to say about May anymore.

    Alternatively, it could be a v bad poll for Labour, but would that be newsworthy?

    It's a poll?
    I assumed it was (wrongly, it seems).
    I'm sure there'll be one at some point, which will be tagged as shocking, so the point still stands.
    A big Labour attack on Tory police cuts, emphasizing their promise - notwithstanding Diane Abbott's maths - to recruit 3000 extra officers. Fits the Corbyn free-spending agenda.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Ms. Apocalypse, cheers.

    I do fear the Lib Dems may go backwards at this election.

    Fear? It is something to be rejoiced. :smiley:
    You have a funny view of democracy if you think that seeing a party that typically attracts the support of 10-20% of British voters being reduced to fewer than 9 out of 650 MPs is a good thing.
    Looks like it is on course to get less than 10% now though.
    So 50-60 MPs representing this point of view would not be an unreasonable expectation. .
    Only if you support a proportional voting system. Which I do, but FPTP is what it is.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    Freggles said:

    IanB2 said:

    I'm cackling that the Stop Brexit candidate is polling 9% more than the LDs :lol:

    I'd venture the suggestion that, confronted on your PC or mobile device's screen with three names that most voters won't have heard of plus the familiar party names, and a fourth that clearly contains a message/policy, does magnify significantly the proportion of people who would click the "anti Brexit" candidate in an area like Battersea. The take away from this is that, in this atypical Inner London seat at least, concern about Brexit is still a very salient issue.

    I don't believe the percentage of people clicking against this candidate in an online poll will translate into the same number of real votes when people come to fill in their ballot papers.
    Well, hopefully for the LD's sake you're right!
    Which poll is being discussed here?
    There's a constituency poll downthread about the impact of a 'stop brexit' candidate in (I think) Battersea.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    YouGov:

    Con policies well thought through - 19
    Con policies not well thought through - 54

    Those numbers are horrendous. I'm suprised so many on here regard the election result as a foregone conclusion.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    If this poll shows Labour seriously closing in the Conservatives (I presume that's what he's implying now thinking about it) then WTH? I won't even know what to say about May anymore.

    Alternatively, it could be a v bad poll for Labour, but would that be newsworthy?

    It may not be a poll.

    The tories going for Corbyn's jugular is my guess.

    I recon Lynton's decided a massive partisan *terrorism* fight will work in TM's favour.
    Cole's second tweet talks about a hard code ideology. That doesn't sound like the Tories. But what do I know!
    Labour going after the Tories on Libya?

    "We (and especially our wicked leaders) are at fault for acts of terrorism against us" would be entirely in keeping with the Far Left world view. The so-called Stop the War Coalition (former chairman: Mr J Corbyn) has been taking that line for many years.
    That seems likely, is certainly ideological and fits the parameters presented.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    MikeL said:

    YouGov:

    Con policies well thought through - 19
    Con policies not well thought through - 54

    Those numbers are horrendous. I'm suprised so many on here regard the election result as a foregone conclusion.

    It's almost as though - more or less unprecedentedly - the Conservatives had done a screeching u turn on a flagship manifesto policy.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761

    Think there is a special Question Time from Manc at 10pm, presumably that's pre recorded, something may be coming in that which breaks the truce.

    Cant see it from this list of panelists TBH

    https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/867777358283120642
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289

    Anyway, too humid so I'm off.

    As a northerner you should at least try and enjoy it, whilst it lasts.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    MikeL said:

    YouGov:

    Con policies well thought through - 19
    Con policies not well thought through - 54

    Those numbers are horrendous. I'm suprised so many on here regard the election result as a foregone conclusion.

    It's almost as though - more or less unprecedentedly - the Conservatives had done a screeching u turn on a flagship manifesto policy.
    well, you might well think that.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MikeL said:

    YouGov:

    Con policies well thought through - 19
    Con policies not well thought through - 54

    Those numbers are horrendous. I'm suprised so many on here regard the election result as a foregone conclusion.

    Unless this presages a collapse in the Tory ratings on the main secondaries e.g. best Prime Minister then I doubt it'll make a whole lot of difference.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    Here's my wild speculation.

    Labour and Corbyn going for Mrs May tonight on the following narrative

    Mrs May's police cuts, coupled with that 2015 interview, opportunities failed to catch him, and the intervention in Libya in 2011, the Manchester attack is May's arrogance/fault
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Freggles said:

    IanB2 said:

    I'm cackling that the Stop Brexit candidate is polling 9% more than the LDs :lol:

    I'd venture the suggestion that, confronted on your PC or mobile device's screen with three names that most voters won't have heard of plus the familiar party names, and a fourth that clearly contains a message/policy, does magnify significantly the proportion of people who would click the "anti Brexit" candidate in an area like Battersea. The take away from this is that, in this atypical Inner London seat at least, concern about Brexit is still a very salient issue.

    I don't believe the percentage of people clicking against this candidate in an online poll will translate into the same number of real votes when people come to fill in their ballot papers.
    Well, hopefully for the LD's sake you're right!
    Which poll is being discussed here?
    It was posted earlier in the thread - it's a Survation poll, polling Battersea.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144

    MikeL said:

    YouGov:

    Con policies well thought through - 19
    Con policies not well thought through - 54

    Those numbers are horrendous. I'm suprised so many on here regard the election result as a foregone conclusion.

    It's almost as though - more or less unprecedentedly - the Conservatives had done a screeching u turn on a flagship manifesto policy.
    The central principle of including the house in the assets used to pay for social care remains, and without being forced to state a value on the cap, May has considerable flexibility on this, if elected ( :p ). Agree that it looks like a screeching U-turn though!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Sandpit said:
    Hopefully just some idiot who thinks parking on any of the London bridges is a good idea.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Ms. Apocalypse, cheers.

    I do fear the Lib Dems may go backwards at this election.

    Fear? It is something to be rejoiced. :smiley:
    You have a funny view of democracy if you think that seeing a party that typically attracts the support of 10-20% of British voters being reduced to fewer than 9 out of 650 MPs is a good thing.
    Looks like it is on course to get less than 10% now though.
    So 50-60 MPs representing this point of view would not be an unreasonable expectation. .
    Only if you support a proportional voting system. Which I do, but FPTP is what it is.
    Crap, basically, which Labour promised to replace, then decided not to bother, when it seemed to be serving them well. What a big mistake that was! Mr Palmer and friends certainly f***ed up big time with that decision!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144

    Here's my wild speculation.

    Labour and Corbyn going for Mrs May tonight on the following narrative

    Mrs May's police cuts, coupled with that 2015 interview, opportunities failed to catch him, and the intervention in Libya in 2011, the Manchester attack is May's arrogance/fault

    The Tories then simply quote Abbott as wanting to disband the security services, and ask who the voters trust more on security issues.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    saddo said:

    What does this mean?
    I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm
    I'm going to guess it's more attacking the other party, than announcing their own policy, for it to be regarded as the truce well and truly off.

    Just guessing but a Tory attack on Corbyn's terrorist sympathising history.
    My money's on an uber smear job, that this far out comes from the comrades.

    Crosby will keep his powder try until the last week and until there are decent reads post Manchester

    Comrades on the other hand should be pretty desperate if they actually want to win and believe all their bubble propaganda
    Yeah the second Tweet now makes me think Comrades too. Tories would be attacking the other parties hardcore ideology not using their own.
    Comrades or Kippers blaming immigration?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Here's my wild speculation.

    Labour and Corbyn going for Mrs May tonight on the following narrative

    Mrs May's police cuts, coupled with that 2015 interview, opportunities failed to catch him, and the intervention in Libya in 2011, the Manchester attack is May's arrogance/fault

    In the Sun though? I wonder if they've found one of the Corynistas's saying that but not 'openly' .... if it's a full frontal 'assault' then that's Labour going 'all in' or shit or bust, I'd suggest & I'd have said too soon but we'll see.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    edited May 2017
    Charles said:

    saddo said:

    What does this mean?
    I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm
    I'm going to guess it's more attacking the other party, than announcing their own policy, for it to be regarded as the truce well and truly off.

    Just guessing but a Tory attack on Corbyn's terrorist sympathising history.
    My money's on an uber smear job, that this far out comes from the comrades.

    Crosby will keep his powder try until the last week and until there are decent reads post Manchester

    Comrades on the other hand should be pretty desperate if they actually want to win and believe all their bubble propaganda
    Yeah the second Tweet now makes me think Comrades too. Tories would be attacking the other parties hardcore ideology not using their own.
    Comrades or Kippers blaming immigration?
    Haven't UKIP already done this, earlier today?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    Freggles said:

    IanB2 said:

    I'm cackling that the Stop Brexit candidate is polling 9% more than the LDs :lol:

    I'd venture the suggestion that, confronted on your PC or mobile device's screen with three names that most voters won't have heard of plus the familiar party names, and a fourth that clearly contains a message/policy, does magnify significantly the proportion of people who would click the "anti Brexit" candidate in an area like Battersea. The take away from this is that, in this atypical Inner London seat at least, concern about Brexit is still a very salient issue.

    I don't believe the percentage of people clicking against this candidate in an online poll will translate into the same number of real votes when people come to fill in their ballot papers.
    Well, hopefully for the LD's sake you're right!
    Which poll is being discussed here?
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Final-Battersea-Tables-090517CCCH-5c0d3h-2205.pdf
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348

    Here's my wild speculation.

    Labour and Corbyn going for Mrs May tonight on the following narrative

    Mrs May's police cuts, coupled with that 2015 interview, opportunities failed to catch him, and the intervention in Libya in 2011, the Manchester attack is May's arrogance/fault

    In the Sun though? I wonder if they've found one of the Corynistas's saying that but not 'openly' .... if it's a full frontal 'assault' then that's Labour going 'all in' or shit or bust, I'd suggest & I'd have said too soon but we'll see.
    The right of reply to Monday's article?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Think there is a special Question Time from Manc at 10pm, presumably that's pre recorded, something may be coming in that which breaks the truce.

    Cant see it from this list of panelists TBH

    https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/867777358283120642
    Interesting panel, without any fringe parties. Could be a very somber QT.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 940
    The Battersea poll would suggest that Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston & Surbiton and maybe Sutton might return to the Lib Dems. However I am unsure what the campaigns are like there. I still have the Lib Dems to end up with 3 - 5 seats.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683

    Here's my wild speculation.

    Labour and Corbyn going for Mrs May tonight on the following narrative

    Mrs May's police cuts, coupled with that 2015 interview, opportunities failed to catch him, and the intervention in Libya in 2011, the Manchester attack is May's arrogance/fault

    If they do Crosby has a free pass to dump Corbyn's entire terrorist sympathising history all over his head in the last fortnight, not to mention Osborne actually protected police funding in 2015 and if Corbyn had his way there would be an open border and we would not be bombing ISIS
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    If Labour are going to go all political on this then it is going to backfire hugely.

    Why? The true believers will love it, and if the Tories cock up their response to such an attack, which given the crapness of their campaign is possible, and even if it should backfire, will it?
This discussion has been closed.