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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on GE2017 looking a bit more competitive and TMay’s “soci

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,179

    I agree with the broad thrust of what you're saying - I suspect a lot of people would.

    But it's the emotional issue. People fear death taxes. A lot of people fear the concept when they actually sit below the threshold.

    The NHS is another emotive subject. Most people know, deep down, the system is unsustainable but any reform is terrifying - particularly to the left -and you cannot touch it without causing a disturbance in the force.
    Part of the problem was the visceral feeling that this is about loss of control of your home.

    Most people had no idea your home comes into play as an asset, before you die, when you need residential social care. Then they get told that their home is going to come into play as an asset even when they are still living in it. So the council will be setting a Charge on it as soon as the bills for home visits start rolling in.

    So, you've told people about a scary thing that they didn't know about and then said it will be scarier under our new shiny system.

    And then to add some salt into a gaping wound - you imply that possibly it wont be the council but private insurance companies.

    Five minutes of road-testing this on PB on Wednesday evening before they pressed 'Print' would have saved them almost throwing the GE away.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    scotslass said:

    ICM cross breaks would have the SNP at 53 seats - just saying!

    Yougov and Survation certainly wouldn't and even ICM had the SNP down 4% to 46%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317


    Five minutes of road-testing this on PB on Wednesday evening before they pressed 'Print' would have saved them almost throwing the GE away.

    Heck, five minutes of consulting with the Cabinet would have been enough.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Yorkcity said:

    Very much agree.Makes you wonder why the angst from Conservatives .Surely their internal polls are telling that they are heading for 150 maj and social care will not change that.
    Tories - too much in touch with their inner bedwetters.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308

    I agree with the broad thrust of what you're saying - I suspect a lot of people would.

    But it's the emotional issue. People fear death taxes. A lot of people fear the concept when they actually sit below the threshold.

    The NHS is another emotive subject. Most people know, deep down, the system is unsustainable but any reform is terrifying - particularly to the left -and you cannot touch it without causing a disturbance in the force.
    We can't avoid emotive issues though. We have to put all public services on a sustainable footing.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,440
    Sean_F said:

    There were a number of polls in mid single figures that gave Conservatives the jitters in 1987.
    Indeed:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1983-1987

    and some single figure leads in 1983 (interestingly at about the same time in the campaign as now):

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    @another_richard - here's hoping for some much needed swingback! :p
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,440
    RobD said:

    Time will tell if that changes.
    It would be helpful if someone kept a track of their movements.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972
    AnneJGP said:

    Of course they do. I find it really hard to understand why so many people are so set against using what they have managed to save to pay for their needs in later life.

    There is something so self-absorbed in considering only one's own family at the expense of other young people.
    All the politicians know that tapping into the windfall wealth of property equity is going to be inevitable, given that the other solutions to funding the growing costs of health and care are all worse. The LibDems tried proposing the Mansion Tax. Then Labour with its Estate Levy. Now the Tories with care charges. Each time the proposals get savaged by the other parties. Yet sooner or later it has to happen.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098
    I've shifted my green on Betfair (183£) to 0-9 seats Lib Dems.

    Utterly invisible. Will try and help Clegg save his seat next weekend, I think its a 3 way marginal :/
  • glwglw Posts: 10,315
    Yorkcity said:

    Very much agree.Makes you wonder why the angst from Conservatives .Surely their internal polls are telling that they are heading for 150 maj and social care will not change that.

    My theory, and it echoes opinion here, is that they fear that the polls are too good to be true. We have seen polls where the Tories are reported to have twice the share of Labour, would you believe that? Funnily enough, now that Labour are gaining share the Tory share looks more believable.

    So they panicked because they couldn't believe they are doing as well as the polls say.

    Of course we will never know if the polls were right during the campaign, even if they do get the final result right. It will remain one of those unknowable things, was there a point where the Tories could have utterly crushed Labour?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    RobD said:

    Heck, five minutes of consulting with the Cabinet would have been enough.
    Yes even I feel sorry that they sent out cabinet ministers out on Sunday to say there would be no change under any circumstances .You could see even under questioning from Marr he was gulping for breath sweating and nervous.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972

    By contrast Philip Hammond has been in Bolsover today and Damian Green in Don Valley:

    https://twitter.com/aaron4donvalley
    https://twitter.com/helenharrisonuk?lang=en

    It doesn't look like the Conservative targeting is changing.
    They make promises and arrangements are made, both locally and HQ. It would be unrealistic to expect schedules to be changed at a day or two's notice.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    Yorkcity said:

    Yes even I feel sorry that they sent out cabinet ministers out on Sunday to say there would be no change under any circumstances .You could see even under questioning from Marr he was gulping for breath sweating and nervous.
    Yes, why in god's name didn't they start trailing the cap then? "Yes, there will be a maximum amount, and that will be consulted on in the green paper, but the fundamental principle remains to ensure social care is on a sure footing for the next X years."
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Pulpstar said:

    I've shifted my green on Betfair (183£) to 0-9 seats Lib Dems.

    Utterly invisible. Will try and help Clegg save his seat next weekend, I think its a 3 way marginal :/

    Noooooo - think of us who are on the Blue crew at 14s or something with someone, can't remember as not expecting to collect!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098
    IanB2 said:

    Each time the proposals get savaged by the other parties. Yet sooner or later it has to happen.

    I note very little attacks by the Conservatives on the Lib Dem plan to roll back the IHT changes this time round. Perhaps that is just a sleeping dogs angle but yes the system is bursting and something has to be done.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,440

    Errr... The SE is the English border areas.

    UKIP were strong in the SE and Cardiff and the South. One is swinging 14 % to the Tories, one 5.5 per cent to Labour.

    The numbers clearly are just dominated by sampling noise,

    The crucial thing for Labour, by the way, is what is the swing in the NE were there are the 4 most vulnerable seats.
    UKIP did significantly better in the Newport constituencies than those in Cardiff.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    It would be helpful if someone kept a track of their movements.
    I'm just waiting for Corbs to turn up here in Buckingham!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317

    I'm just waiting for Corbs to turn up here in Buckingham!
    Where he can do the least harm? :D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098
    edited May 2017
    IanB2 said:

    They make promises and arrangements are made, both locally and HQ. It would be unrealistic to expect schedules to be changed at a day or two's notice.
    It'd be daft too - why would the policy cause Bolsover and Don Valley to become any less likely ?
    Alot of the Con votes 'lost' here will be to DNV in the Home counties. Probably reappear on election day.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129
    RobD said:

    Where he can do the least harm? :D
    You mean - he can't cost Labour votes as they're not standing?

    Or were you thinking he might campaign for Bercow?

    More seriously, it is high time and long overdue that the Speaker was not a member for a Parliamentary constituency.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,440

    Which seats are the LibDems going to gain?
    Probably two or three in Scotland.
    Possibly Twickenham and Richmond Park.
    Maybe Cambridge.

    The over/under markets are suggest a few net gains for the LibDems.

    It is possible though that the LibDems lose seats overall.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    If anything they are buying ads to get people to read about it!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129

    Probably two or three in Scotland.
    Possibly Twickenham and Richmond Park.
    Maybe Cambridge.

    The over/under markets are suggest a few net gains for the LibDems.

    It is possible though that the LibDems lose seats overall.
    If I'm honest, I can't see Cable retaking Twickenham. Cambridge looks possible.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    IanB2 said:

    All the politicians know that tapping into the windfall wealth of property equity is going to be inevitable, given that the other solutions to funding the growing costs of health and care are all worse. The LibDems tried proposing the Mansion Tax. Then Labour with its Estate Levy. Now the Tories with care charges. Each time the proposals get savaged by the other parties. Yet sooner or later it has to happen.
    Some kind of social care levy on inheritances/trust funds might be the least unpalatable solution. Alternatively, just treat gifts/inheritances as income & tax it.

    If there was an easy/painless solution, it would have already been implemented.

    Reforming social care is all about identifying what is politically possible.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    RobD said:

    If anything they are buying ads to get people to read about it!
    yup - it's wrong on many levels.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    RobD said:

    Where he can do the least harm? :D
    He might be here for a fortnight is what I'm worried about.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,252

    Probably two or three in Scotland.
    Possibly Twickenham and Richmond Park.
    Maybe Cambridge.

    The over/under markets are suggest a few net gains for the LibDems.

    It is possible though that the LibDems lose seats overall.
    Labour retreads didn't do too well in 2015. Not sure the LibDems will do any better.

    I expect Zac to be returned as an MP, with a majority of several thousand.

    And I do wonder if Scotland is going to be surprisingly little changed....
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    RobD said:

    @another_richard - here's hoping for some much needed swingback! :p

    But there's still Thanet to come at some point... the timing on that could be critical to momentum (both types).
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    UKIP did significantly better in the Newport constituencies than those in Cardiff.
    I agree with you that the key is what is happening to the UKIP vote.

    Newport (or Blaenau Gwent, the largest Leave in Wales) are in the SE. According to this poll, it is swinging 14 per cent to the Tories. Big leave votes in the valleys North of Cardiff, in Caerffili and in Cynon Valley, but these must be in “Cardiff and the South” which is swinging 5 per cent to Labour. The numbers make no sense.

    What we do know is Cardiff (the only Labour Remain seats in Wales) will behave differently to the rest of Wales. Cardiff Central looks safe for Labour.

    Although Cardiff generally was pretty good for Labour in the locals, they lost councillors in Cardiff North, so I think the Tories will hold it.

    The North Wales swing (if you believe it) will cause seats like Wrexham to fall.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    edited May 2017
    TudorRose said:

    But there's still Thanet to come at some point... the timing on that could be critical to momentum (both types).
    That would have been the ultimate dead cat. It's due on or before June 1st, if they got the one-year extension on June 1st 2016.

    Edit: If he is implicated, Timothy has to go.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098

    Probably two or three in Scotland.
    Possibly Twickenham and Richmond Park.
    Maybe Cambridge.

    The over/under markets are suggest a few net gains for the LibDems.

    It is possible though that the LibDems lose seats overall.
    Loss:
    Carshalton, Southport (No incumbency). (6)
    Probable Loss:
    North Norfolk (Lamb may JUST be the one MP who can benefit from the shift to care here) (5.5)


    Edinburgh West,
    E Dunbartonshire maybe ? (7.5)

    I'm genuinely not sure about Cambridge (0.5 of a gain) - I reckon it may well be where the Labour vote is UP. Similiarly for Bermondsey. Biggest Lib/Lab swing in Hornsey but quite likely not enough. Cardiff Central no chance on the Welsh polls, similiarly not much hope for anything in the Southwest (Brexit has killed Tim there).

    Richmond Park/Twickenham - I'd have to say Tory right now to be perfectly frank. Perhaps one of the two.
    One of Hallam, Leeds NW or even Westmorland to go.

    So I'd set the u/o line at 9.5, 9 or under was 3.6 which is a big price.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,442
    edited May 2017
    TudorRose said:

    But there's still Thanet to come at some point... the timing on that could be critical to momentum (both types).
    And Nick Timothy was also entangled in the fun in South Thanet.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/16/pms-chief-of-staff-embroiled-in-south-thanet-election-spending-row

    Nick Timothy the anti-Midas?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,179
    Pong said:

    Some kind of social care levy on inheritances/trust funds might be the least unpalatable solution. Alternatively, just treat gifts/inheritances as income & tax it.

    If there was an easy/painless solution, it would have already been implemented.

    Reforming social care is all about identifying what is politically possible.
    Which is worse, 10% levy on all estates, or 100% levy (above £100K) on the estates of the unlucky? Plus the latter get to worry about their house being snatched whilst they are still alive, never mind their partner.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Pulpstar said:

    I've shifted my green on Betfair (183£) to 0-9 seats Lib Dems.

    Utterly invisible. Will try and help Clegg save his seat next weekend, I think its a 3 way marginal :/

    0-10 is 5/4 from 7/4 at 365. If it's goes odds on I think I'll cash out. Or part cash out.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    AnneJGP said:

    Of course they do. I find it really hard to understand why so many people are so set against using what they have managed to save to pay for their needs in later life.

    There is something so self-absorbed in considering only one's own family at the expense of other young people.
    The sad thing is that as soon as someone tries to tackle the massive issue of inter generational fairness, they have to turn back. But i'm not sure if May has actually turned back, she is adding more detail to the policy. It is very bold to spend political capital to try and address these difficult problems, she deserves more credit for it.
    Labour on the other hand are offering a manifesto where pensioners are yet another recipent of unlimited and unfunded free stuff.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,242




    Which is worse, 10% levy on all estates, or 100% levy (above £100K) on the estates of the unlucky? Plus the latter get to worry about their house being snatched whilst they are still alive, never mind their partner.

    Nope the latter do not. The policy is very clear that nothing changes with the estate until they and their partner are deceased. Unlike the present situation where people are forced to sell their houses when they go into a care home.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited May 2017
    first my barnacle comment gets used shortly after I post here and now this point I've been banging on about here is used by kipper man

    https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/866759592793047040
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381

    By contrast Philip Hammond has been in Bolsover today and Damian Green in Don Valley:

    https://twitter.com/aaron4donvalley
    https://twitter.com/helenharrisonuk?lang=en

    It doesn't look like the Conservative targeting is changing.
    If you were simply to add up the Con/UKIP vote share and the Lab/LibDem/Green vote share per constituency, from 2015, the right wing bloc would win about 360 seats, and the left wing bloc about 210. It makes sense for the Conservatives to target seats with big UKIP votes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,442
    Interesting front page by the Express, love the juxtaposition

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/866759299585978368
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129



    Which is worse, 10% levy on all estates, or 100% levy (above £100K) on the estates of the unlucky? Plus the latter get to worry about their house being snatched whilst they are still alive, never mind their partner.

    But that's the change this policy is proposing. Instead of taking it while alive, it becomes chargeable after death. So your question is therefore based on a false premise and actually implies the reverse of the reality.

    Probably not really a smart idea to follow the comments of fluent and not very bright liars like Corbyn and Lucas when critiquing a policy from their opponents!
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    edited May 2017
    Pong said:

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    lets see if my fantasy powers extend further....

    'Gareth, it's time to come home, well to Wembley but only for a while and then home a year later, well it's still sort of home but it's new'......
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    TudorRose said:

    But there's still Thanet to come at some point... the timing on that could be critical to momentum (both types).
    Depending on your speech impediment, several swearing expressions can sound like "Thanet"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,030

    And Nick Timothy was also entangled in the fun in South Thanet.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/16/pms-chief-of-staff-embroiled-in-south-thanet-election-spending-row

    Nick Timothy the anti-Midas?
    Was he also the man behind the Hinckley Point decision ?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,442
    edited May 2017
    Top of the Telegraph unhelpful for Mrs May and The Tories, middle part, very helpful

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/866762014558998528
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Reviewing my 2017 betting position - am cashing out in a few Scottish constituencies but I'm just reviewing the SCon line

    I got on > 9.5seats @ 15
    And lead off to free bet level <9.5seats @ 1.28

    Will Hill have no significantly moved. The over/under is 8.5 @ 1.83 either way. I was going to lay off another £100s worth of profit but with the line moved I can no longer do it risk free :disappointed:
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    first my barnacle comment gets used shortly after I post here and now this point I've been banging on about here is used by kipper man

    https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/866759592793047040

    The man can't even fill out his tax return properly.

    And he still isn't the worst member of the front bench.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited May 2017
    meow splat

    [deleted]

    bloody scottp, just once!

    Mind you I got the welsh poll tweet out before him...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,546
    Tim_B said:

    Depending on your speech impediment, several swearing expressions can sound like "Thanet"
    On that subject, Theresa May seems to contract some words to odd effect. She kept on saying that the care system will 'claps' without intervention, and likes to talk about the 'plice' service.
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Brutal brutal 10pm news for May and Tories. BBC putting the boot in
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600

    Brutal brutal 10pm news for May and Tories. BBC putting the boot in

    Just had Sir Andrew Dilnot on saying he welcomed the change, with an earlier clip of Corbyn and Prescott
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381

    Which is worse, 10% levy on all estates, or 100% levy (above £100K) on the estates of the unlucky? Plus the latter get to worry about their house being snatched whilst they are still alive, never mind their partner.
    The second point is not correct. The house would not be sold. The Council would take a legal charge.

    My guess is that a 10% charge on all estates would cause a shitstorm. My preference would be to eliminate almost all reliefs and exemptions for IHT, and cut the rate to 20%. But, the losers would howl.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,859
    chestnut said:

    The man can't even fill out his tax return properly.

    And he still isn't the worst member of the front bench.
    No absolutely, Liz Truss is godawful..
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    RobD said:

    If anything they are buying ads to get people to read about it!
    Lol. Yes. Read about the Tories' Dementia Tax at conservatives.com/dementiatax
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jimwaterson: People say George Osborne isn't a proper journalist but here he is screwing over ex-colleagues in order to get maxi… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/866762555720704000
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    chestnut said:

    The man can't even fill out his tax return properly.

    And he still isn't the worst member of the front bench.
    If they'd had Diane Abbott do the counting he would have won convincingly.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,440

    Labour retreads didn't do too well in 2015. Not sure the LibDems will do any better.

    I expect Zac to be returned as an MP, with a majority of several thousand.

    And I do wonder if Scotland is going to be surprisingly little changed....
    I think you're likely to be right.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,859
    Scott_P said:
    Was that the ex IRA (wo)man who is now a Tory councillor perchance?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Alistair said:

    Reviewing my 2017 betting position - am cashing out in a few Scottish constituencies but I'm just reviewing the SCon line

    I got on > 9.5seats @ 15
    And lead off to free bet level <9.5seats @ 1.28

    Will Hill have no significantly moved. The over/under is 8.5 @ 1.83 either way. I was going to lay off another £100s worth of profit but with the line moved I can no longer do it risk free :disappointed: </p>

    Sounds like you're in good shape overall though. :)
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Quite a brutal analysis of the Tories' failings from Peston on the ITV news just now. If May sticks with negativity and fear, the election narrative might mirror the Brexit vote.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    No absolutely, Liz Truss is godawful..
    I will give you that one. :smiley:
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Was that the ex IRA (wo)man who is now a Tory councillor perchance?
    Ah you must be from the SNP then I take it?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,440

    Doorstep polling round here has never faltered. Excellent results again tonight. Well up on 2015.
    Well done.

    But may I ask for which party (I assume Conservatives) and in which constituency ?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Tim_B said:

    If they'd had Diane Abbott do the counting he would have won convincingly.
    We laugh at the Americans for Trump, but we have people willing to put Diane Abbott in charge of MI5.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    On that subject, Theresa May seems to contract some words to odd effect. She kept on saying that the care system will 'claps' without intervention, and likes to talk about the 'plice' service.
    Over here it's ardic, anardic, and nukelluh for arctic, antarctic and nuclear. Not to mention 'physical' when they mean fiscal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    Dadge said:

    Quite a brutal analysis of the Tories' failings from Peston on the ITV news just now. If May sticks with negativity and fear, the election narrative might mirror the Brexit vote.

    It is Corbyn spreading the fear on her social care plans
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    Dadge said:

    Quite a brutal analysis of the Tories' failings from Peston on the ITV news just now. If May sticks with negativity and fear, the election narrative might mirror the Brexit vote.

    Height of irony if we "Took Back Control" and handed it to a genuinely left-wing government. The look on the faces of Hannan, Farage and Boris! :)
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Even Corbyn's side know what his downfall will be. Labour members may not care but the general public will

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/08/07/the-idea-that-jeremy-corbyn-laid-the-foundations-for-peace-in-northern-ireland-is-total-fantasy/

    Surely the Tories have something lined up about this - it seems to me they are leaving it late to go big. Perhaps it will be left to Andrew Neil to hammer it home
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,079
    RobD said:

    @another_richard - here's hoping for some much needed swingback! :p

    No thanks!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    chestnut said:

    We laugh at the Americans for Trump, but we have people willing to put Diane Abbott in charge of MI5.
    It would give a whole new meaning to Black Ops.......
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600

    Even Corbyn's side know what his downfall will be. Labour members may not care but the general public will

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/08/07/the-idea-that-jeremy-corbyn-laid-the-foundations-for-peace-in-northern-ireland-is-total-fantasy/

    Surely the Tories have something lined up about this - it seems to me they are leaving it late to go big. Perhaps it will be left to Andrew Neil to hammer it home

    Corbyn was in Hull tonight, May in Wrexham today, the Tories seem to be focusing on their target seats ready before a final avalanche, Corbyn on rallying his base
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,440
    Sean_F said:

    The second point is not correct. The house would not be sold. The Council would take a legal charge.

    My guess is that a 10% charge on all estates would cause a shitstorm. My preference would be to eliminate almost all reliefs and exemptions for IHT, and cut the rate to 20%. But, the losers would howl.
    Alternatively increase council tax.

    I can imagine how well that would received that would be.
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    Some belated thoughts on the Welsh poll.

    This one looks much more realistic than last one.. The Tory surge in last poll was probably a snap reaction to Confident Teresa calling the election when she did and Corbyns bumbling reaction.it was never going to last.

    Since then the spotlight on Nanny Teresa Maybe is starting to highlight her many flaws while at the same time Carwyn Jones has successfully distanced himself and the Welsh family from his idiot cousin in London.


    This poll probably boosts Labour a bit more because of the untimely death of Rhodri Morgan who epitomised the best that Welsh Labour had to offer (note the past tense).

    Plaid and LD are obviously feeling the squeeze at the moment but I expect both to firm up where they are strongest and voters can see a realistic alternative. The punters piling into Labour holding Ynys Mon may regret their actions as Plaid should not only win, but Uncle Albert will be pushed into third

    But possible Conservative gains are looking slim....forget Bridgend - Carwyns castle...Newport West and Wrexham more likely . Maybe Delyn...but that is about that

    And expect Labours only gain across the UK in Gower as local voters regret their decision last time...



  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,079
    PB Tories: Why the worry? You lot are going to win, maybe even win big. Yes, your leader is totoally hapless and quite frankly a bit sh*t, but Labour's leader is even worse.

    Labour are not winning this election!! Can you f*cking relax now!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    TWERK - to dance to popular music in a sexually provocative manner involving thrusting hip movements and a low, squatting stance.

    Unless you're from Yorkshire, in which case it's where you go Monday to Friday.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Dixie

    No idea why Corbyn & Co didn't try:

    Rail, Mail, Water in public hands.
    Vote Labour and take back control.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    Even Corbyn's side know what his downfall will be. Labour members may not care but the general public will

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/08/07/the-idea-that-jeremy-corbyn-laid-the-foundations-for-peace-in-northern-ireland-is-total-fantasy/

    Surely the Tories have something lined up about this - it seems to me they are leaving it late to go big. Perhaps it will be left to Andrew Neil to hammer it home

    Yes. The IRA stuff will probably play out from Crosby in the final fortnight.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    So we've found some IRA violence that they're prepared to unequivocally condemn.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    So we've found some IRA violence that they're prepared to unequivocally condemn.
    Bravo.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Would anyone like to buy a kitchen shelving unit? It won't be so expensive that you have only £10 left in the bank. OK, if you insist, I'll discuss the option of a cap on the maximum price for the shelving unit, but only after the sale is agreed. Deal?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Scott_P said:
    - and he has refused a subpoena from a Senate committee. Apparently he plans to take the 5th on testimony. Not good.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,098

    Which seats are the LibDems going to gain?
    Edinburgh West (80%)
    Fife NE (50%)
    Dumbartonshire East (40%)
    Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (60%)
    Argyll & Bute (33%)

    Twickenham (40%)
    Bath (25%)
    Lewes (15%)
    Kingston-upon-Thames (15%)
    OxWAb (20%)

    Cambridge (40%)
    Southwark (25%)
    Hornsey & Wood Green (5%)
    Vauxhall (0.1%)

    Of course, there's a lot of correlation in these. Nevertheless, my money would be on them gaining two, or possibly three, seats in Scotland, plus Twickenham and Cambridge.

    Against that, they'll almost certainly lose Carshalton, and Southport. North Norfolk is 50/50, and there has to be a fair chance they'll lose Sheffield Hallam. It's not implausible (15% chance) that they lose Leeds NW and even possible Westmoreland and Lonsdale.

    Really, the only safe seat they have is Orkney & Shetland.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Thought I saw a headline "Prisoners to pay for their own care" !!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TreyYingst: SCOOP: Three White House staffers have been identified for leaking classified info. POTUS will fire 'multiple people' when he returns to DC.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Scott_P said:

    @TreyYingst: SCOOP: Three White House staffers have been identified for leaking classified info. POTUS will fire 'multiple people' when he returns to DC.

    So Donald isn't one of the three?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,546
    Freggles said:

    So Donald isn't one of the three?
    By definition he can't be. He can divulge anything to whomever he likes.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    bobajobPB said:

    Dixie

    No idea why Corbyn & Co didn't try:

    Rail, Mail, Water in public hands.
    Vote Labour and take back control.

    Because the last time they were in "the public's" hands it turned out it was more like the union's hands.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,138
    edited May 2017

    So we've found some IRA violence that they're prepared to unequivocally condemn.
    The only decent grass is a grass who grasses to JC - The Long Good Friday Agreement
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited May 2017
    rcs1000 said:



    Edinburgh West (80%)

    That's Conservative in my estimation. As in your odds, not who'll take the seat.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,859
    rcs1000 said:

    Edinburgh West (80%)
    Fife NE (50%)
    Dumbartonshire East (40%)
    Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (60%)
    Argyll & Bute (33%)

    Twickenham (40%)
    Bath (25%)
    Lewes (15%)
    Kingston-upon-Thames (15%)
    OxWAb (20%)

    Cambridge (40%)
    Southwark (25%)
    Hornsey & Wood Green (5%)
    Vauxhall (0.1%)

    Of course, there's a lot of correlation in these. Nevertheless, my money would be on them gaining two, or possibly three, seats in Scotland, plus Twickenham and Cambridge.

    Against that, they'll almost certainly lose Carshalton, and Southport. North Norfolk is 50/50, and there has to be a fair chance they'll lose Sheffield Hallam. It's not implausible (15% chance) that they lose Leeds NW and even possible Westmoreland and Lonsdale.

    Really, the only safe seat they have is Orkney & Shetland.
    Eastbourne, Cheltenham should feature on that list somewhere? Dementia tax might resonate in areas with high numbers of retirees, as I'm not sure Theresa's u-turn non u-turn has fully resolved yet.
This discussion has been closed.