Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
snip
They were going for the strong and stable narrative: look at me, I'm different from that loony Mr Corbyn because I'm taking difficult decisions to long term problems and he's promising you the moon on a stick.
As a tactic, certainly fits into the brave or stupid category. I suspect the latter. They thought it would show a maturity and responsible attitude, but they forgot just how emotive the issue is to middle England. Yes, we all know the systems broke, yes, we all know that deep down other than funding care through general taxation there is going to have to be some utilisation of the users assets, but an Englishmans home is his castle and people get very upset about hearing anything that sounds like a death duty or raid on your property. It's in the national psyche.
True but how do older people expect care to be paid? By working age people who cannot even get onto the housing ladder or benefit from generous pensions? There is an issue with this country about intwr-generational fairness that we need to consider. I'm not saying that the original Conservative proposal is necessarily the answer but the care users assets have to be a consideration.
I agree with the broad thrust of what you're saying - I suspect a lot of people would.
But it's the emotional issue. People fear death taxes. A lot of people fear the concept when they actually sit below the threshold.
The NHS is another emotive subject. Most people know, deep down, the system is unsustainable but any reform is terrifying - particularly to the left -and you cannot touch it without causing a disturbance in the force.
Part of the problem was the visceral feeling that this is about loss of control of your home.
Most people had no idea your home comes into play as an asset, before you die, when you need residential social care. Then they get told that their home is going to come into play as an asset even when they are still living in it. So the council will be setting a Charge on it as soon as the bills for home visits start rolling in.
So, you've told people about a scary thing that they didn't know about and then said it will be scarier under our new shiny system.
And then to add some salt into a gaping wound - you imply that possibly it wont be the council but private insurance companies.
Five minutes of road-testing this on PB on Wednesday evening before they pressed 'Print' would have saved them almost throwing the GE away.
The election campaign in 1987 was generally regarded as having been won decisively by Labour. It featured slick and professional election broadcasts, such as 'Kinnock the Movie', directed by Colin Welland. The campaign was led by Bryan Gould and a young Peter Mandelson. And yet, it appears to have made f-all difference to the result.
TMay's denial today that she had made a u-turn was one of the most embarrassing performances I've ever seen from a PM (a little reminiscent to my mind of Gordon Brown's denial that the polling was what lay behind his decision not to have an election in 2007). And yet, ultimately, I don't think it'll make any difference to the fact that Labour are heading for a shattering defeat.
Very much agree.Makes you wonder why the angst from Conservatives .Surely their internal polls are telling that they are heading for 150 maj and social care will not change that.
Tories - too much in touch with their inner bedwetters.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
They were going for the strong and stable narrative: look at me, I'm different from that loony Mr Corbyn because I'm taking difficult decisions to long term problems and he's promising you the moon on a stick.
As a tactic, certainly fits into the brave or stupid category. I suspect the latter. They thought it would show a maturity and responsible attitude, but they forgot just how emotive the issue is to middle England. Yes, we all know the systems broke, yes, we all know that deep down other than funding care through general taxation there is going to have to be some utilisation of the users assets, but an Englishmans home is his castle and people get very upset about hearing anything that sounds like a death duty or raid on your property. It's in the national psyche.
True but how do older people expect care to be paid? By working age people who cannot even get onto the housing ladder or benefit from generous pensions? There is an issue with this country about intwr-generational fairness that we need to consider. I'm not saying that the original Conservative proposal is necessarily the answer but the care users assets have to be a consideration.
I agree with the broad thrust of what you're saying - I suspect a lot of people would.
But it's the emotional issue. People fear death taxes. A lot of people fear the concept when they actually sit below the threshold.
The NHS is another emotive subject. Most people know, deep down, the system is unsustainable but any reform is terrifying - particularly to the left -and you cannot touch it without causing a disturbance in the force.
We can't avoid emotive issues though. We have to put all public services on a sustainable footing.
Looking forward to the Shipman book on this election, especially the plot twist half way through when Nick Timothy has to go crawling on bended knee to Crosby and ask him to take charge.
So far this election reminds me of '87.
Conservatives in good spirits heading into campaign, but cracks begin to emerge as PM is kept away from voters and Labour score some hits. Polls tighten. People get pinned up against walls with hysterical screaming that they're losing the election. Tories unleash tsunami of 'cling to nurse' campaigning in the closing stages and romp home with comfortable majority.
But will history repeat itself for the PMs fortunes in the following parliament?
But the panic in 1987 was just a week before polling day in response to a rogue Gallup Poll showing the Tory lead at just 4%.
There were a number of polls in mid single figures that gave Conservatives the jitters in 1987.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
They were going for the strong and stable narrative: look at me, I'm different from that loony Mr Corbyn because I'm taking difficult decisions to long term problems and he's promising you the moon on a stick.
As a tactic, certainly fits into the brave or stupid category. I suspect the latter. They thought it would show a maturity and responsible attitude, but they forgot just how emotive the issue is to middle England. Yes, we all know the systems broke, yes, we all know that deep down other than funding care through general taxation there is going to have to be some utilisation of the users assets, but an Englishmans home is his castle and people get very upset about hearing anything that sounds like a death duty or raid on your property. It's in the national psyche.
True but how do older people expect care to be paid? By working age people who cannot even get onto the housing ladder or benefit from generous pensions? There is an issue with this country about intwr-generational fairness that we need to consider. I'm not saying that the original Conservative proposal is necessarily the answer but the care users assets have to be a consideration.
Of course they do. I find it really hard to understand why so many people are so set against using what they have managed to save to pay for their needs in later life.
There is something so self-absorbed in considering only one's own family at the expense of other young people.
All the politicians know that tapping into the windfall wealth of property equity is going to be inevitable, given that the other solutions to funding the growing costs of health and care are all worse. The LibDems tried proposing the Mansion Tax. Then Labour with its Estate Levy. Now the Tories with care charges. Each time the proposals get savaged by the other parties. Yet sooner or later it has to happen.
Very much agree.Makes you wonder why the angst from Conservatives .Surely their internal polls are telling that they are heading for 150 maj and social care will not change that.
My theory, and it echoes opinion here, is that they fear that the polls are too good to be true. We have seen polls where the Tories are reported to have twice the share of Labour, would you believe that? Funnily enough, now that Labour are gaining share the Tory share looks more believable.
So they panicked because they couldn't believe they are doing as well as the polls say.
Of course we will never know if the polls were right during the campaign, even if they do get the final result right. It will remain one of those unknowable things, was there a point where the Tories could have utterly crushed Labour?
Five minutes of road-testing this on PB on Wednesday evening before they pressed 'Print' would have saved them almost throwing the GE away.
Heck, five minutes of consulting with the Cabinet would have been enough.
Yes even I feel sorry that they sent out cabinet ministers out on Sunday to say there would be no change under any circumstances .You could see even under questioning from Marr he was gulping for breath sweating and nervous.
Five minutes of road-testing this on PB on Wednesday evening before they pressed 'Print' would have saved them almost throwing the GE away.
Heck, five minutes of consulting with the Cabinet would have been enough.
Yes even I feel sorry that they sent out cabinet ministers out on Sunday to say there would be no change under any circumstances .You could see even under questioning from Marr he was gulping for breath sweating and nervous.
Yes, why in god's name didn't they start trailing the cap then? "Yes, there will be a maximum amount, and that will be consulted on in the green paper, but the fundamental principle remains to ensure social care is on a sure footing for the next X years."
Each time the proposals get savaged by the other parties. Yet sooner or later it has to happen.
I note very little attacks by the Conservatives on the Lib Dem plan to roll back the IHT changes this time round. Perhaps that is just a sleeping dogs angle but yes the system is bursting and something has to be done.
Further: Latest Results Compared to FINAL CALL YG in 2015
North Wales:....... Con 37 (+8) Lab 42 (+1) - swing to Con 3.5% Mid and West:..... Con 39 (+12) Lab 29 (+4) - swing to Con 4% SE:...................... Con 39 (+19) Lab 38 (-9) - swing to Con 14% Cardiff and Sth:... Con 30 (+5) Lab 53 (+16) - swing to Lab 5.5% SW:...................... Con 26 (+6) Lab 56 (+9) - swing to Lab 1.5%
Food for thought.
Only subsamples but you would expect Labour to be doing better in metropolitan Cardiff to the English border areas where UKIP were strong.
So those numbers make sense.
Errr... The SE is the English border areas.
UKIP were strong in the SE and Cardiff and the South. One is swinging 14 % to the Tories, one 5.5 per cent to Labour.
The numbers clearly are just dominated by sampling noise,
The crucial thing for Labour, by the way, is what is the swing in the NE were there are the 4 most vulnerable seats.
UKIP did significantly better in the Newport constituencies than those in Cardiff.
It doesn't look like the Conservative targeting is changing.
They make promises and arrangements are made, both locally and HQ. It would be unrealistic to expect schedules to be changed at a day or two's notice.
It'd be daft too - why would the policy cause Bolsover and Don Valley to become any less likely ? Alot of the Con votes 'lost' here will be to DNV in the Home counties. Probably reappear on election day.
The election campaign in 1987 was generally regarded as having been won decisively by Labour. It featured slick and professional election broadcasts, such as 'Kinnock the Movie', directed by Colin Welland. The campaign was led by Bryan Gould and a young Peter Mandelson. And yet, it appears to have made f-all difference to the result.
TMay's denial today that she had made a u-turn was one of the most embarrassing performances I've ever seen from a PM (a little reminiscent to my mind of Gordon Brown's denial that the polling was what lay behind his decision not to have an election in 2007). And yet, ultimately, I don't think it'll make any difference to the fact that Labour are heading for a shattering defeat.
I would say it did make a difference to the result as it helped Labour beat the Alliance - something which had been in doubt at the start of the election campaign.
Likewise Labour are having a much better campaign than the LibDems this year - although ironically Labour are likely to lose MPs and the LibDems to gain them.
Which seats are the LibDems going to gain?
Probably two or three in Scotland. Possibly Twickenham and Richmond Park. Maybe Cambridge.
The over/under markets are suggest a few net gains for the LibDems.
It is possible though that the LibDems lose seats overall.
The election campaign in 1987 was generally regarded as having been won decisively by Labour. It featured slick and professional election broadcasts, such as 'Kinnock the Movie', directed by Colin Welland. The campaign was led by Bryan Gould and a young Peter Mandelson. And yet, it appears to have made f-all difference to the result.
TMay's denial today that she had made a u-turn was one of the most embarrassing performances I've ever seen from a PM (a little reminiscent to my mind of Gordon Brown's denial that the polling was what lay behind his decision not to have an election in 2007). And yet, ultimately, I don't think it'll make any difference to the fact that Labour are heading for a shattering defeat.
I would say it did make a difference to the result as it helped Labour beat the Alliance - something which had been in doubt at the start of the election campaign.
Likewise Labour are having a much better campaign than the LibDems this year - although ironically Labour are likely to lose MPs and the LibDems to gain them.
Which seats are the LibDems going to gain?
Probably two or three in Scotland. Possibly Twickenham and Richmond Park. Maybe Cambridge.
The over/under markets are suggest a few net gains for the LibDems.
It is possible though that the LibDems lose seats overall.
If I'm honest, I can't see Cable retaking Twickenham. Cambridge looks possible.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
They were going for the strong and stable narrative: look at me, I'm different from that loony Mr Corbyn because I'm taking difficult decisions to long term problems and he's promising you the moon on a stick.
As a tactic, certainly fits into the brave or stupid category. I suspect the latter. They thought it would show a maturity and responsible attitude, but they forgot just how emotive the issue is to middle England. Yes, we all know the systems broke, yes, we all know that deep down other than funding care through general taxation there is going to have to be some utilisation of the users assets, but an Englishmans home is his castle and people get very upset about hearing anything that sounds like a death duty or raid on your property. It's in the national psyche.
True but how do older people expect care to be paid? By working age people who cannot even get onto the housing ladder or benefit from generous pensions? There is an issue with this country about intwr-generational fairness that we need to consider. I'm not saying that the original Conservative proposal is necessarily the answer but the care users assets have to be a consideration.
Of course they do. I find it really hard to understand why so many people are so set against using what they have managed to save to pay for their needs in later life.
There is something so self-absorbed in considering only one's own family at the expense of other young people.
All the politicians know that tapping into the windfall wealth of property equity is going to be inevitable, given that the other solutions to funding the growing costs of health and care are all worse. The LibDems tried proposing the Mansion Tax. Then Labour with its Estate Levy. Now the Tories with care charges. Each time the proposals get savaged by the other parties. Yet sooner or later it has to happen.
Some kind of social care levy on inheritances/trust funds might be the least unpalatable solution. Alternatively, just treat gifts/inheritances as income & tax it.
If there was an easy/painless solution, it would have already been implemented.
Reforming social care is all about identifying what is politically possible.
The election campaign in 1987 was generally regarded as having been won decisively by Labour. It featured slick and professional election broadcasts, such as 'Kinnock the Movie', directed by Colin Welland. The campaign was led by Bryan Gould and a young Peter Mandelson. And yet, it appears to have made f-all difference to the result.
TMay's denial today that she had made a u-turn was one of the most embarrassing performances I've ever seen from a PM (a little reminiscent to my mind of Gordon Brown's denial that the polling was what lay behind his decision not to have an election in 2007). And yet, ultimately, I don't think it'll make any difference to the fact that Labour are heading for a shattering defeat.
I would say it did make a difference to the result as it helped Labour beat the Alliance - something which had been in doubt at the start of the election campaign.
Likewise Labour are having a much better campaign than the LibDems this year - although ironically Labour are likely to lose MPs and the LibDems to gain them.
Which seats are the LibDems going to gain?
Probably two or three in Scotland. Possibly Twickenham and Richmond Park. Maybe Cambridge.
The over/under markets are suggest a few net gains for the LibDems.
It is possible though that the LibDems lose seats overall.
Labour retreads didn't do too well in 2015. Not sure the LibDems will do any better.
I expect Zac to be returned as an MP, with a majority of several thousand.
And I do wonder if Scotland is going to be surprisingly little changed....
Further: Latest Results Compared to FINAL CALL YG in 2015
North Wales:....... Con 37 (+8) Lab 42 (+1) - swing to Con 3.5% Mid and West:..... Con 39 (+12) Lab 29 (+4) - swing to Con 4% SE:...................... Con 39 (+19) Lab 38 (-9) - swing to Con 14% Cardiff and Sth:... Con 30 (+5) Lab 53 (+16) - swing to Lab 5.5% SW:...................... Con 26 (+6) Lab 56 (+9) - swing to Lab 1.5%
Food for thought.
Only subsamples but you would expect Labour to be doing better in metropolitan Cardiff to the English border areas where UKIP were strong.
So those numbers make sense.
Errr... The SE is the English border areas.
UKIP were strong in the SE and Cardiff and the South. One is swinging 14 % to the Tories, one 5.5 per cent to Labour.
The numbers clearly are just dominated by sampling noise,
The crucial thing for Labour, by the way, is what is the swing in the NE were there are the 4 most vulnerable seats.
UKIP did significantly better in the Newport constituencies than those in Cardiff.
I agree with you that the key is what is happening to the UKIP vote.
Newport (or Blaenau Gwent, the largest Leave in Wales) are in the SE. According to this poll, it is swinging 14 per cent to the Tories. Big leave votes in the valleys North of Cardiff, in Caerffili and in Cynon Valley, but these must be in “Cardiff and the South” which is swinging 5 per cent to Labour. The numbers make no sense.
What we do know is Cardiff (the only Labour Remain seats in Wales) will behave differently to the rest of Wales. Cardiff Central looks safe for Labour.
Although Cardiff generally was pretty good for Labour in the locals, they lost councillors in Cardiff North, so I think the Tories will hold it.
The North Wales swing (if you believe it) will cause seats like Wrexham to fall.
The election campaign in 1987 was generally regarded as having been won decisively by Labour. It featured slick and professional election broadcasts, such as 'Kinnock the Movie', directed by Colin Welland. The campaign was led by Bryan Gould and a young Peter Mandelson. And yet, it appears to have made f-all difference to the result.
TMay's denial today that she had made a u-turn was one of the most embarrassing performances I've ever seen from a PM (a little reminiscent to my mind of Gordon Brown's denial that the polling was what lay behind his decision not to have an election in 2007). And yet, ultimately, I don't think it'll make any difference to the fact that Labour are heading for a shattering defeat.
I would say it did make a difference to the result as it helped Labour beat the Alliance - something which had been in doubt at the start of the election campaign.
Likewise Labour are having a much better campaign than the LibDems this year - although ironically Labour are likely to lose MPs and the LibDems to gain them.
Which seats are the LibDems going to gain?
Probably two or three in Scotland. Possibly Twickenham and Richmond Park. Maybe Cambridge.
The over/under markets are suggest a few net gains for the LibDems.
It is possible though that the LibDems lose seats overall.
Loss: Carshalton, Southport (No incumbency). (6) Probable Loss: North Norfolk (Lamb may JUST be the one MP who can benefit from the shift to care here) (5.5)
Edinburgh West, E Dunbartonshire maybe ? (7.5)
I'm genuinely not sure about Cambridge (0.5 of a gain) - I reckon it may well be where the Labour vote is UP. Similiarly for Bermondsey. Biggest Lib/Lab swing in Hornsey but quite likely not enough. Cardiff Central no chance on the Welsh polls, similiarly not much hope for anything in the Southwest (Brexit has killed Tim there).
Richmond Park/Twickenham - I'd have to say Tory right now to be perfectly frank. Perhaps one of the two. One of Hallam, Leeds NW or even Westmorland to go.
So I'd set the u/o line at 9.5, 9 or under was 3.6 which is a big price.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
They were going for the strong and stable narrative: look at me, I'm different from that loony Mr Corbyn because I'm taking difficult decisions to long term problems and he's promising you the moon on a stick.
As a tactic, certainly fits into the brave or stupid category. I suspect the latter. They thought it would show a maturity and responsible attitude, but they forgot just how emotive the issue is to middle England. Yes, we all know the systems broke, yes, we all know that deep down other than funding care through general taxation there is going to have to be some utilisation of the users assets, but an Englishmans home is his castle and people get very upset about hearing anything that sounds like a death duty or raid on your property. It's in the national psyche.
snip
Of course they do. I find it really hard to understand why so many people are so set against using what they have managed to save to pay for their needs in later life.
There is something so self-absorbed in considering only one's own family at the expense of other young people.
All the politicians know that tapping into the windfall wealth of property equity is going to be inevitable, given that the other solutions to funding the growing costs of health and care are all worse. The LibDems tried proposing the Mansion Tax. Then Labour with its Estate Levy. Now the Tories with care charges. Each time the proposals get savaged by the other parties. Yet sooner or later it has to happen.
Some kind of social care levy on inheritances/trust funds might be the least unpalatable solution. Alternatively, just treat gifts/inheritances as income & tax it.
If there was an easy/painless solution, it would have already been implemented.
Reforming social care is all about identifying what is politically possible.
Which is worse, 10% levy on all estates, or 100% levy (above £100K) on the estates of the unlucky? Plus the latter get to worry about their house being snatched whilst they are still alive, never mind their partner.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
They were going for the strong and stable narrative: look at me, I'm different from that loony Mr Corbyn because I'm taking difficult decisions to long term problems and he's promising you the moon on a stick.
As a tactic, certainly fits into the brave or stupid category. I suspect the latter. They thought it would show a maturity and responsible attitude, but they forgot just how emotive the issue is to middle England. Yes, we all know the systems broke, yes, we all know that deep down other than funding care through general taxation there is going to have to be some utilisation of the users assets, but an Englishmans home is his castle and people get very upset about hearing anything that sounds like a death duty or raid on your property. It's in the national psyche.
True but how do older people expect care to be paid? By working age people who cannot even get onto the housing ladder or benefit from generous pensions? There is an issue with this country about intwr-generational fairness that we need to consider. I'm not saying that the original Conservative proposal is necessarily the answer but the care users assets have to be a consideration.
Of course they do. I find it really hard to understand why so many people are so set against using what they have managed to save to pay for their needs in later life.
There is something so self-absorbed in considering only one's own family at the expense of other young people.
The sad thing is that as soon as someone tries to tackle the massive issue of inter generational fairness, they have to turn back. But i'm not sure if May has actually turned back, she is adding more detail to the policy. It is very bold to spend political capital to try and address these difficult problems, she deserves more credit for it. Labour on the other hand are offering a manifesto where pensioners are yet another recipent of unlimited and unfunded free stuff.
Which is worse, 10% levy on all estates, or 100% levy (above £100K) on the estates of the unlucky? Plus the latter get to worry about their house being snatched whilst they are still alive, never mind their partner.
Nope the latter do not. The policy is very clear that nothing changes with the estate until they and their partner are deceased. Unlike the present situation where people are forced to sell their houses when they go into a care home.
It doesn't look like the Conservative targeting is changing.
If you were simply to add up the Con/UKIP vote share and the Lab/LibDem/Green vote share per constituency, from 2015, the right wing bloc would win about 360 seats, and the left wing bloc about 210. It makes sense for the Conservatives to target seats with big UKIP votes.
Which is worse, 10% levy on all estates, or 100% levy (above £100K) on the estates of the unlucky? Plus the latter get to worry about their house being snatched whilst they are still alive, never mind their partner.
But that's the change this policy is proposing. Instead of taking it while alive, it becomes chargeable after death. So your question is therefore based on a false premise and actually implies the reverse of the reality.
Probably not really a smart idea to follow the comments of fluent and not very bright liars like Corbyn and Lucas when critiquing a policy from their opponents!
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
True but how do older people expect care to be paid? By working age people who cannot even get onto the housing ladder or benefit from generous pensions? There is an issue with this country about intwr-generational fairness that we need to consider. I'm not saying that the original Conservative proposal is necessarily the answer but the care users assets have to be a consideration.
Of course they do. I find it really hard to understand why so many people are so set against using what they have managed to save to pay for their needs in later life.
There is something so self-absorbed in considering only one's own family at the expense of other young people.
All the politicians know that tapping into the windfall wealth of property equity is going to be inevitable, given that the other solutions to funding the growing costs of health and care are all worse. The LibDems tried proposing the Mansion Tax. Then Labour with its Estate Levy. Now the Tories with care charges. Each time the proposals get savaged by the other parties. Yet sooner or later it has to happen.
Some kind of social care levy on inheritances/trust funds might be the least unpalatable solution. Alternatively, just treat gifts/inheritances as income & tax it.
If there was an easy/painless solution, it would have already been implemented.
Reforming social care is all about identifying what is politically possible.
All of the reform options available are both unpopular and capable of being easily rubbished by political opponents for political advantage. Softly, softly has to be the order of the day and May used a huge stick. Up to now I thought she might make a reasonable fist of Brexit negotiations, now I'm not so sure. What I am sure of is that Corbyn would be far more inept than May with brain freeze, since he doesn't appear to possess a functioning brain.
Reviewing my 2017 betting position - am cashing out in a few Scottish constituencies but I'm just reviewing the SCon line
I got on > 9.5seats @ 15 And lead off to free bet level <9.5seats @ 1.28
Will Hill have no significantly moved. The over/under is 8.5 @ 1.83 either way. I was going to lay off another £100s worth of profit but with the line moved I can no longer do it risk free
@another_richard - here's hoping for some much needed swingback!
But there's still Thanet to come at some point... the timing on that could be critical to momentum (both types).
Depending on your speech impediment, several swearing expressions can sound like "Thanet"
On that subject, Theresa May seems to contract some words to odd effect. She kept on saying that the care system will 'claps' without intervention, and likes to talk about the 'plice' service.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
They were going for the strong and stable narrative: look at me, I'm different from that loony Mr Corbyn because I'm taking difficult decisions t about hearing anything that sounds like a death duty or raid on your property. It's in the national psyche.
snip
Of course they do. I find it really hard to understand why so many people are so set against using what they have managed to save to pay for their needs in later life.
There is something so self-absorbed in considering only one's own family at the expense of other young people.
All the politicians know that tapping into the windfall wealth of property equity is going to be inevitable, given that the other solutions to funding the growing costs of health and care are all worse. The LibDems tried proposing the Mansion Tax. Then Labour with its Estate Levy. Now the Tories with care charges. Each time the proposals get savaged by the other parties. Yet sooner or later it has to happen.
Some kind of social care levy on inheritances/trust funds might be the least unpalatable solution. Alternatively, just treat gifts/inheritances as income & tax it.
If there was an easy/painless solution, it would have already been implemented.
Reforming social care is all about identifying what is politically possible.
Which is worse, 10% levy on all estates, or 100% levy (above £100K) on the estates of the unlucky? Plus the latter get to worry about their house being snatched whilst they are still alive, never mind their partner.
The second point is not correct. The house would not be sold. The Council would take a legal charge.
My guess is that a 10% charge on all estates would cause a shitstorm. My preference would be to eliminate almost all reliefs and exemptions for IHT, and cut the rate to 20%. But, the losers would howl.
The election campaign in 1987 was generally regarded as having been won decisively by Labour. It featured slick and professional election broadcasts, such as 'Kinnock the Movie', directed by Colin Welland. The campaign was led by Bryan Gould and a young Peter Mandelson. And yet, it appears to have made f-all difference to the result.
TMay's denial today that she had made a u-turn was one of the most embarrassing performances I've ever seen from a PM (a little reminiscent to my mind of Gordon Brown's denial that the polling was what lay behind his decision not to have an election in 2007). And yet, ultimately, I don't think it'll make any difference to the fact that Labour are heading for a shattering defeat.
I would say it did make a difference to the result as it helped Labour beat the Alliance - something which had been in doubt at the start of the election campaign.
Likewise Labour are having a much better campaign than the LibDems this year - although ironically Labour are likely to lose MPs and the LibDems to gain them.
Which seats are the LibDems going to gain?
Probably two or three in Scotland. Possibly Twickenham and Richmond Park. Maybe Cambridge.
The over/under markets are suggest a few net gains for the LibDems.
It is possible though that the LibDems lose seats overall.
Labour retreads didn't do too well in 2015. Not sure the LibDems will do any better.
I expect Zac to be returned as an MP, with a majority of several thousand.
And I do wonder if Scotland is going to be surprisingly little changed....
Reviewing my 2017 betting position - am cashing out in a few Scottish constituencies but I'm just reviewing the SCon line
I got on > 9.5seats @ 15 And lead off to free bet level <9.5seats @ 1.28
Will Hill have no significantly moved. The over/under is 8.5 @ 1.83 either way. I was going to lay off another £100s worth of profit but with the line moved I can no longer do it risk free </p>
Quite a brutal analysis of the Tories' failings from Peston on the ITV news just now. If May sticks with negativity and fear, the election narrative might mirror the Brexit vote.
The election campaign in 1987 was generally regarded as having been won decisively by Labour. It featured slick and professional election broadcasts, such as 'Kinnock the Movie', directed by Colin Welland. The campaign was led by Bryan Gould and a young Peter Mandelson. And yet, it appears to have made f-all difference to the result.
TMay's denial today that she had made a u-turn was one of the most embarrassing performances I've ever seen from a PM (a little reminiscent to my mind of Gordon Brown's denial that the polling was what lay behind his decision not to have an election in 2007). And yet, ultimately, I don't think it'll make any difference to the fact that Labour are heading for a shattering defeat.
Very much agree.Makes you wonder why the angst from Conservatives .Surely their internal polls are telling that they are heading for 150 maj and social care will not change that.
Doorstep polling round here has never faltered. Excellent results again tonight. Well up on 2015.
Well done.
But may I ask for which party (I assume Conservatives) and in which constituency ?
@another_richard - here's hoping for some much needed swingback!
But there's still Thanet to come at some point... the timing on that could be critical to momentum (both types).
Depending on your speech impediment, several swearing expressions can sound like "Thanet"
On that subject, Theresa May seems to contract some words to odd effect. She kept on saying that the care system will 'claps' without intervention, and likes to talk about the 'plice' service.
Over here it's ardic, anardic, and nukelluh for arctic, antarctic and nuclear. Not to mention 'physical' when they mean fiscal.
Quite a brutal analysis of the Tories' failings from Peston on the ITV news just now. If May sticks with negativity and fear, the election narrative might mirror the Brexit vote.
It is Corbyn spreading the fear on her social care plans
Quite a brutal analysis of the Tories' failings from Peston on the ITV news just now. If May sticks with negativity and fear, the election narrative might mirror the Brexit vote.
Height of irony if we "Took Back Control" and handed it to a genuinely left-wing government. The look on the faces of Hannan, Farage and Boris!
Surely the Tories have something lined up about this - it seems to me they are leaving it late to go big. Perhaps it will be left to Andrew Neil to hammer it home
Surely the Tories have something lined up about this - it seems to me they are leaving it late to go big. Perhaps it will be left to Andrew Neil to hammer it home
Corbyn was in Hull tonight, May in Wrexham today, the Tories seem to be focusing on their target seats ready before a final avalanche, Corbyn on rallying his base
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
They were going for the strong and stable narrative: look at me, I'm different from that loony Mr Corbyn because I'm taking difficult decisions t about hearing anything that sounds like a death duty or raid on your property. It's in the national psyche.
snip
Of course they do. I find it really hard to understand why so many people are so set against using what they have managed to save to pay for their needs in later life.
There is something so self-absorbed in considering only one's own family at the expense of other young people.
All the politicians know that tapping into the windfall wealth of property equity is going to be inevitable, given that the other solutions to funding the growing costs of health and care are all worse. The LibDems tried proposing the Mansion Tax. Then Labour with its Estate Levy. Now the Tories with care charges. Each time the proposals get savaged by the other parties. Yet sooner or later it has to happen.
Some kind of social care levy on inheritances/trust funds might be the least unpalatable solution. Alternatively, just treat gifts/inheritances as income & tax it.
If there was an easy/painless solution, it would have already been implemented.
Reforming social care is all about identifying what is politically possible.
Which is worse, 10% levy on all estates, or 100% levy (above £100K) on the estates of the unlucky? Plus the latter get to worry about their house being snatched whilst they are still alive, never mind their partner.
The second point is not correct. The house would not be sold. The Council would take a legal charge.
My guess is that a 10% charge on all estates would cause a shitstorm. My preference would be to eliminate almost all reliefs and exemptions for IHT, and cut the rate to 20%. But, the losers would howl.
Alternatively increase council tax.
I can imagine how well that would received that would be.
This one looks much more realistic than last one.. The Tory surge in last poll was probably a snap reaction to Confident Teresa calling the election when she did and Corbyns bumbling reaction.it was never going to last.
Since then the spotlight on Nanny Teresa Maybe is starting to highlight her many flaws while at the same time Carwyn Jones has successfully distanced himself and the Welsh family from his idiot cousin in London.
This poll probably boosts Labour a bit more because of the untimely death of Rhodri Morgan who epitomised the best that Welsh Labour had to offer (note the past tense).
Plaid and LD are obviously feeling the squeeze at the moment but I expect both to firm up where they are strongest and voters can see a realistic alternative. The punters piling into Labour holding Ynys Mon may regret their actions as Plaid should not only win, but Uncle Albert will be pushed into third
But possible Conservative gains are looking slim....forget Bridgend - Carwyns castle...Newport West and Wrexham more likely . Maybe Delyn...but that is about that
And expect Labours only gain across the UK in Gower as local voters regret their decision last time...
PB Tories: Why the worry? You lot are going to win, maybe even win big. Yes, your leader is totoally hapless and quite frankly a bit sh*t, but Labour's leader is even worse.
Labour are not winning this election!! Can you f*cking relax now!
Surely the Tories have something lined up about this - it seems to me they are leaving it late to go big. Perhaps it will be left to Andrew Neil to hammer it home
Yes. The IRA stuff will probably play out from Crosby in the final fortnight.
Would anyone like to buy a kitchen shelving unit? It won't be so expensive that you have only £10 left in the bank. OK, if you insist, I'll discuss the option of a cap on the maximum price for the shelving unit, but only after the sale is agreed. Deal?
The election campaign in 1987 was generally regarded as having been won decisively by Labour. It featured slick and professional election broadcasts, such as 'Kinnock the Movie', directed by Colin Welland. The campaign was led by Bryan Gould and a young Peter Mandelson. And yet, it appears to have made f-all difference to the result.
TMay's denial today that she had made a u-turn was one of the most embarrassing performances I've ever seen from a PM (a little reminiscent to my mind of Gordon Brown's denial that the polling was what lay behind his decision not to have an election in 2007). And yet, ultimately, I don't think it'll make any difference to the fact that Labour are heading for a shattering defeat.
I would say it did make a difference to the result as it helped Labour beat the Alliance - something which had been in doubt at the start of the election campaign.
Likewise Labour are having a much better campaign than the LibDems this year - although ironically Labour are likely to lose MPs and the LibDems to gain them.
Which seats are the LibDems going to gain?
Edinburgh West (80%) Fife NE (50%) Dumbartonshire East (40%) Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (60%) Argyll & Bute (33%)
Of course, there's a lot of correlation in these. Nevertheless, my money would be on them gaining two, or possibly three, seats in Scotland, plus Twickenham and Cambridge.
Against that, they'll almost certainly lose Carshalton, and Southport. North Norfolk is 50/50, and there has to be a fair chance they'll lose Sheffield Hallam. It's not implausible (15% chance) that they lose Leeds NW and even possible Westmoreland and Lonsdale.
Really, the only safe seat they have is Orkney & Shetland.
@TreyYingst: SCOOP: Three White House staffers have been identified for leaking classified info. POTUS will fire 'multiple people' when he returns to DC.
@TreyYingst: SCOOP: Three White House staffers have been identified for leaking classified info. POTUS will fire 'multiple people' when he returns to DC.
@TreyYingst: SCOOP: Three White House staffers have been identified for leaking classified info. POTUS will fire 'multiple people' when he returns to DC.
So Donald isn't one of the three?
By definition he can't be. He can divulge anything to whomever he likes.
The election campaign in 1987 was generally regarded as having been won decisively by Labour. It featured slick and professional election broadcasts, such as 'Kinnock the Movie', directed by Colin Welland. The campaign was led by Bryan Gould and a young Peter Mandelson. And yet, it appears to have made f-all difference to the result.
TMay's denial today that she had made a u-turn was one of the most embarrassing performances I've ever seen from a PM (a little reminiscent to my mind of Gordon Brown's denial that the polling was what lay behind his decision not to have an election in 2007). And yet, ultimately, I don't think it'll make any difference to the fact that Labour are heading for a shattering defeat.
I would say it did make a difference to the result as it helped Labour beat the Alliance - something which had been in doubt at the start of the election campaign.
Likewise Labour are having a much better campaign than the LibDems this year - although ironically Labour are likely to lose MPs and the LibDems to gain them.
Which seats are the LibDems going to gain?
Edinburgh West (80%) Fife NE (50%) Dumbartonshire East (40%) Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (60%) Argyll & Bute (33%)
Of course, there's a lot of correlation in these. Nevertheless, my money would be on them gaining two, or possibly three, seats in Scotland, plus Twickenham and Cambridge.
Against that, they'll almost certainly lose Carshalton, and Southport. North Norfolk is 50/50, and there has to be a fair chance they'll lose Sheffield Hallam. It's not implausible (15% chance) that they lose Leeds NW and even possible Westmoreland and Lonsdale.
Really, the only safe seat they have is Orkney & Shetland.
Eastbourne, Cheltenham should feature on that list somewhere? Dementia tax might resonate in areas with high numbers of retirees, as I'm not sure Theresa's u-turn non u-turn has fully resolved yet.
Comments
Most people had no idea your home comes into play as an asset, before you die, when you need residential social care. Then they get told that their home is going to come into play as an asset even when they are still living in it. So the council will be setting a Charge on it as soon as the bills for home visits start rolling in.
So, you've told people about a scary thing that they didn't know about and then said it will be scarier under our new shiny system.
And then to add some salt into a gaping wound - you imply that possibly it wont be the council but private insurance companies.
Five minutes of road-testing this on PB on Wednesday evening before they pressed 'Print' would have saved them almost throwing the GE away.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1983-1987
and some single figure leads in 1983 (interestingly at about the same time in the campaign as now):
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
Utterly invisible. Will try and help Clegg save his seat next weekend, I think its a 3 way marginal
So they panicked because they couldn't believe they are doing as well as the polls say.
Of course we will never know if the polls were right during the campaign, even if they do get the final result right. It will remain one of those unknowable things, was there a point where the Tories could have utterly crushed Labour?
Alot of the Con votes 'lost' here will be to DNV in the Home counties. Probably reappear on election day.
Or were you thinking he might campaign for Bercow?
More seriously, it is high time and long overdue that the Speaker was not a member for a Parliamentary constituency.
Possibly Twickenham and Richmond Park.
Maybe Cambridge.
The over/under markets are suggest a few net gains for the LibDems.
It is possible though that the LibDems lose seats overall.
https://twitter.com/GaryLineker/status/866581483263336448
If there was an easy/painless solution, it would have already been implemented.
Reforming social care is all about identifying what is politically possible.
I expect Zac to be returned as an MP, with a majority of several thousand.
And I do wonder if Scotland is going to be surprisingly little changed....
Newport (or Blaenau Gwent, the largest Leave in Wales) are in the SE. According to this poll, it is swinging 14 per cent to the Tories. Big leave votes in the valleys North of Cardiff, in Caerffili and in Cynon Valley, but these must be in “Cardiff and the South” which is swinging 5 per cent to Labour. The numbers make no sense.
What we do know is Cardiff (the only Labour Remain seats in Wales) will behave differently to the rest of Wales. Cardiff Central looks safe for Labour.
Although Cardiff generally was pretty good for Labour in the locals, they lost councillors in Cardiff North, so I think the Tories will hold it.
The North Wales swing (if you believe it) will cause seats like Wrexham to fall.
Edit: If he is implicated, Timothy has to go.
Carshalton, Southport (No incumbency). (6)
Probable Loss:
North Norfolk (Lamb may JUST be the one MP who can benefit from the shift to care here) (5.5)
Edinburgh West,
E Dunbartonshire maybe ? (7.5)
I'm genuinely not sure about Cambridge (0.5 of a gain) - I reckon it may well be where the Labour vote is UP. Similiarly for Bermondsey. Biggest Lib/Lab swing in Hornsey but quite likely not enough. Cardiff Central no chance on the Welsh polls, similiarly not much hope for anything in the Southwest (Brexit has killed Tim there).
Richmond Park/Twickenham - I'd have to say Tory right now to be perfectly frank. Perhaps one of the two.
One of Hallam, Leeds NW or even Westmorland to go.
So I'd set the u/o line at 9.5, 9 or under was 3.6 which is a big price.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/16/pms-chief-of-staff-embroiled-in-south-thanet-election-spending-row
Nick Timothy the anti-Midas?
Labour on the other hand are offering a manifesto where pensioners are yet another recipent of unlimited and unfunded free stuff.
https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/866759592793047040
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/866759299585978368
Probably not really a smart idea to follow the comments of fluent and not very bright liars like Corbyn and Lucas when critiquing a policy from their opponents!
'Gareth, it's time to come home, well to Wembley but only for a while and then home a year later, well it's still sort of home but it's new'......
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/866762014558998528
I got on > 9.5seats @ 15
And lead off to free bet level <9.5seats @ 1.28
Will Hill have no significantly moved. The over/under is 8.5 @ 1.83 either way. I was going to lay off another £100s worth of profit but with the line moved I can no longer do it risk free
And he still isn't the worst member of the front bench.
[deleted]
bloody scottp, just once!
Mind you I got the welsh poll tweet out before him...
My guess is that a 10% charge on all estates would cause a shitstorm. My preference would be to eliminate almost all reliefs and exemptions for IHT, and cut the rate to 20%. But, the losers would howl.
But may I ask for which party (I assume Conservatives) and in which constituency ?
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/08/07/the-idea-that-jeremy-corbyn-laid-the-foundations-for-peace-in-northern-ireland-is-total-fantasy/
Surely the Tories have something lined up about this - it seems to me they are leaving it late to go big. Perhaps it will be left to Andrew Neil to hammer it home
I can imagine how well that would received that would be.
This one looks much more realistic than last one.. The Tory surge in last poll was probably a snap reaction to Confident Teresa calling the election when she did and Corbyns bumbling reaction.it was never going to last.
Since then the spotlight on Nanny Teresa Maybe is starting to highlight her many flaws while at the same time Carwyn Jones has successfully distanced himself and the Welsh family from his idiot cousin in London.
This poll probably boosts Labour a bit more because of the untimely death of Rhodri Morgan who epitomised the best that Welsh Labour had to offer (note the past tense).
Plaid and LD are obviously feeling the squeeze at the moment but I expect both to firm up where they are strongest and voters can see a realistic alternative. The punters piling into Labour holding Ynys Mon may regret their actions as Plaid should not only win, but Uncle Albert will be pushed into third
But possible Conservative gains are looking slim....forget Bridgend - Carwyns castle...Newport West and Wrexham more likely . Maybe Delyn...but that is about that
And expect Labours only gain across the UK in Gower as local voters regret their decision last time...
Labour are not winning this election!! Can you f*cking relax now!
Unless you're from Yorkshire, in which case it's where you go Monday to Friday.
No idea why Corbyn & Co didn't try:
Rail, Mail, Water in public hands.
Vote Labour and take back control.
Fife NE (50%)
Dumbartonshire East (40%)
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (60%)
Argyll & Bute (33%)
Twickenham (40%)
Bath (25%)
Lewes (15%)
Kingston-upon-Thames (15%)
OxWAb (20%)
Cambridge (40%)
Southwark (25%)
Hornsey & Wood Green (5%)
Vauxhall (0.1%)
Of course, there's a lot of correlation in these. Nevertheless, my money would be on them gaining two, or possibly three, seats in Scotland, plus Twickenham and Cambridge.
Against that, they'll almost certainly lose Carshalton, and Southport. North Norfolk is 50/50, and there has to be a fair chance they'll lose Sheffield Hallam. It's not implausible (15% chance) that they lose Leeds NW and even possible Westmoreland and Lonsdale.
Really, the only safe seat they have is Orkney & Shetland.