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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on GE2017 looking a bit more competitive and TMay’s “soci

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    Tim_B said:

    rcs1000 said:

    scotslass said:

    rcs1000 Posts: 18,176
    10:53PM

    In fact the sitting MP in Edinburgh West has not been charged with anything. I suggest you get your post down pronto before Mike does it for you - otherwise no 18,176 might be your last.

    You are correct, and I apologise.
    Mr S - Do you still have your place on L.I.? I'm off to Shelter Island sometime during next week so I'll wave as I pass!
    Are you going via the South Fork or the North?
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    If say it was a piece of electrical equipment exploding, the fear of a stampede and people getting crushed I would imagine would be very real. Looks like the concert was finished and people were leaving.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    rcs1000 said:

    scotslass said:

    rcs1000 Posts: 18,176
    10:53PM

    In fact the sitting MP in Edinburgh West has not been charged with anything. I suggest you get your post down pronto before Mike does it for you - otherwise no 18,176 might be your last.

    You are correct, and I apologise.
    Mr S - Do you still have your place on L.I.? I'm off to Shelter Island sometime during next week so I'll wave as I pass!
    Are you going via the South Fork or the North?

    Go via the north, it's prettier and less pretentious - or at least used to be...
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Y0kel said:

    There is no clear incident reporting on this thing at Manchester Arena so far. None, so ffs wait.

    BBC World News reported the two loud bangs, described it as an incident, then went on to an extended report on how Orangutans suckle their young longer than any other mammal and what that means for family stability.

    As Fox News would say, that's fair and balanced.
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    GMP Facebook page says 'a number of confirmed fatalities'. Sounding bleak.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    A number of confirmed fatalities - source still unstated - but mayor says bomb
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    GMP Facebook page says 'a number of confirmed fatalities'. Sounding bleak.

    Oh God.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Bugger, this looks bad.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    jonny83 said:
    You sure that's genuine......tirelessly seems strange wording to me....sick if so.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,487

    jonny83 said:
    You sure that's genuine......tirelessly seems strange wording to me....sick if so.
    Yup is genuine

    https://twitter.com/gmpolice/status/866786909544230912
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    BBC News confirming a number of fatalities
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    PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    The Manchester Evening News say Police have confirmed fatalities..
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    rcs1000 said:

    scotslass said:

    rcs1000 Posts: 18,176
    10:53PM

    In fact the sitting MP in Edinburgh West has not been charged with anything. I suggest you get your post down pronto before Mike does it for you - otherwise no 18,176 might be your last.

    You are correct, and I apologise.
    Mr S - Do you still have your place on L.I.? I'm off to Shelter Island sometime during next week so I'll wave as I pass!
    Are you going via the South Fork or the North?
    Probably South - Outerbridge Crossing is my preferred crossing point. Getting from there to the L.I.E. is a real pain during weekdays, so I usually go the southern way.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Feck
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Tim_B said:

    Y0kel said:

    There is no clear incident reporting on this thing at Manchester Arena so far. None, so ffs wait.

    BBC World News reported the two loud bangs, described it as an incident, then went on to an extended report on how Orangutans suckle their young longer than any other mammal and what that means for family stability.

    As Fox News would say, that's fair and balanced.
    The problem is that we just don't know why yet. Yes its a fair target for malicious attack, in fact its a great target but the reporting even with news of fatalities is vague.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    GMP "number of fatalities". Puts politics into perspective.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    MTimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    rcs1000 said:

    scotslass said:

    rcs1000 Posts: 18,176
    10:53PM

    In fact the sitting MP in Edinburgh West has not been charged with anything. I suggest you get your post down pronto before Mike does it for you - otherwise no 18,176 might be your last.

    You are correct, and I apologise.
    Mr S - Do you still have your place on L.I.? I'm off to Shelter Island sometime during next week so I'll wave as I pass!
    Are you going via the South Fork or the North?

    Go via the north, it's prettier and less pretentious - or at least used to be...
    Yes, North Fork is a prettier option - wineries and all - but you have to get to the L.I.E. Therein lies the problem. If I was coming up I-95 I'd knock on your door at midnight! :wink:
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Helen Pidd ✔ @helenpidd
    Group of lads from Sheffield say they heard a bang stage right, saw smoke coming from the @ManchesterArena entrance. Saw 5+ casualties
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Bbc tweet saying might have been balloon setting off panic.... best to wait. Logging off.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    Thoughts and good wishes to everyone concerned. Bloody hell...teenage kids ffs.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Y0kel said:

    Tim_B said:

    Y0kel said:

    There is no clear incident reporting on this thing at Manchester Arena so far. None, so ffs wait.

    BBC World News reported the two loud bangs, described it as an incident, then went on to an extended report on how Orangutans suckle their young longer than any other mammal and what that means for family stability.

    As Fox News would say, that's fair and balanced.
    The problem is that we just don't know why yet. Yes its a fair target for malicious attack, in fact its a great target but the reporting even with news of fatalities is vague.
    But their Orangutan reporting was spot on.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    valleyboy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Penddu said:


    And expect Labours only gain across the UK in Gower as local voters regret their decision last time...

    I reckon Byron will get back in with an increased majority. His seat has 2015 Nuneaton written all over it.
    I think Byron is helped by UKIP standing. UKIP take votes from the northern industrial part of the constituency.
    Ynys Mons Plaid; Gower Labour could happen, I'm betting against it though !
    I think you are wrong about Ynys Mon.

    If the Labour vote had collapsed, then the Tories would take it -- courtesy of Labour voters who prefer to see a Tory than Plaid.

    Also, the PC candidate is the former MP/AM for Ynys Mon and Former Deputy First Minister of Wales (Ieuan Wyn Jones). He’ll have a personal vote, and can call in favours.
    Hmm looking back at the Welsh Assembly votes I can't see any evidence of a personal vote for Ieuan Wyn Jones whatsoever. The majority substantially increased when Rhun ap Iorwerth ran..

    Similiarly neither Alistair Carmichael nor Dennis Skinner has a personal vote when you examine the previous histories of Orkney and Bolsover.

    I'm prepared to take a gamble on Labour there at between 10 and 12 to 1 anyway.
    Ynys Mon is,fascinating. Plaid vote is a bit shaky at the moment and Labour have a habit of hanging on there. Tories must be in with a shout though. Really haven't a clue. On the other hand had a small wager on Lab in Gower.
    I used a free bet on Ynys Mon, Labour hold at 10/1. My thinking is simply that Plaid are generally a bit of a damp squib in general elections, and the Tories will struggle to surge from 3rd here with a split opposition, so will struggle to benefit from any anti-labour tactical voting. It will be the result of the night for me if Labour hold it.
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    Those poor kids. Thoughts with everyone with people in the emergency services tonight.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Spokesman for Ariana Grande says singer is OK
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    The demographic targetted here is going to broadly be ~ 11 - 16 year old girls isn't it ?

    Sick.
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    PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    Serious question.....who on earth is Ariana Grande?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Oh fuckity fuck fuck fuck....
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Tim_B said:

    Y0kel said:

    Tim_B said:

    Y0kel said:

    There is no clear incident reporting on this thing at Manchester Arena so far. None, so ffs wait.

    BBC World News reported the two loud bangs, described it as an incident, then went on to an extended report on how Orangutans suckle their young longer than any other mammal and what that means for family stability.

    As Fox News would say, that's fair and balanced.
    The problem is that we just don't know why yet. Yes its a fair target for malicious attack, in fact its a great target but the reporting even with news of fatalities is vague.
    But their Orangutan reporting was spot on.
    Check that with Sean Spicer, he may disagree
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    Casualties "young children"...Lord have mercy!
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Penddu said:

    Serious question.....who on earth is Ariana Grande?

    not just me then.....
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    4 years to the day from Lee Rigbys death.
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Lot's of parents waiting to pick young ones up after gig.
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Will be a lot of teenagers at that concert. My cousin is 14 and was with her mum at the concert.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    jonny83 said:

    Will be a lot of teenagers at that concert. My cousin is 14 and was with her mum at the concert.

    Hope they are both okay.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    BBC say police confirmed 'a number of fatalities' in Manchester at concert.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    Floater said:

    Penddu said:

    Serious question.....who on earth is Ariana Grande?

    not just me then.....
    She's a young singer from the same mould as other ex Disney stars like Miley Cyrus - means the audience would be predominantly teenage girls, and so they were expressly targeting children.
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    RobD said:

    jonny83 said:

    Will be a lot of teenagers at that concert. My cousin is 14 and was with her mum at the concert.

    Hope they are both okay.
    They are, got out ok. Shaken up by the noise and people screaming and rushing to get out, I think luckily they were pretty close to an exit when whatever actually happened.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    jonny83 said:

    Will be a lot of teenagers at that concert. My cousin is 14 and was with her mum at the concert.

    Hope they ok
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    dixiedean said:

    Casualties "young children"...Lord have mercy!

    Fuck - seriously, just fuck
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Reading the Guardian with eyewitnesses, it does sound like a bomb in one part of the seating area

    Utter scum if so given the children there inevitably...but too early for sure.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Ariana Grande is an anagram of Agrarian Dean
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    jonny83 said:

    RobD said:

    jonny83 said:

    Will be a lot of teenagers at that concert. My cousin is 14 and was with her mum at the concert.

    Hope they are both okay.
    They are, got out ok. Shaken up by the noise and people screaming and rushing to get out, I think luckily they were pretty close to an exit when whatever actually happened.
    Best wishes and all to them.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    There is a really horrific picture on twitter. I don't know if it is legit, but looks like it.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,487
    edited May 2017

    There is a really horrific picture on twitter. I don't know if it is legit, but looks like it.

    It's not legit.

    It's from a training exercise a few years ago.

    Because they've updated the colour scheme inside the Arena since then
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    jonny83 said:

    RobD said:

    jonny83 said:

    Will be a lot of teenagers at that concert. My cousin is 14 and was with her mum at the concert.

    Hope they are both okay.
    They are, got out ok. Shaken up by the noise and people screaming and rushing to get out, I think luckily they were pretty close to an exit when whatever actually happened.
    So very glad to hear they ok
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    21 000 at the gig. Recipe for chaos. Hope things turn out better than they seem now.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,214
    Thoughts and prayers with those at the Manchester concert tonight.

    My son is at the Uni there but is OK - revising for exams I'm pleased to say.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    There is a really horrific picture on twitter. I don't know if it is legit, but looks like it.

    It's not legit.

    It's from a training exercise a few years ago.

    Because they've updated the colour scheme inside the Arena since then
    Sick fuckers...
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    Sickening news from Manchester. Hope it's not as bad as it looks.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,487

    There is a really horrific picture on twitter. I don't know if it is legit, but looks like it.

    It's not legit.

    It's from a training exercise a few years ago.

    Because they've updated the colour scheme inside the Arena since then
    Sick fuckers...
    I know the Arena very well, seen a lot of gigs there.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Dura_Ace said:

    TGOHF said:

    Manchester bomb thing looks nasty.

    Very handy for May. She'll get to wheel out her Servalan act.
    oh fuck off you utter cretin.
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    So many mixed reports out there. Some think a sound system blew and caused a crush. Whatever happened confirmed fatalities and likely teenagers among them considering the concert.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    nunu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    TGOHF said:

    Manchester bomb thing looks nasty.

    Very handy for May. She'll get to wheel out her Servalan act.
    oh fuck off you utter cretin.
    Seconded
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Owen Jones is off tweeting Manchester shall never be beaten eulogies...... ffs it's about kids and getting them reunited with their parents asap. Been taking ms. Scrap to loads of gigs and this is her mums worst nightmare whenever we've gone.....horrendous.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    Tom Newton Dunn‏Verified account @tnewtondunn 1m1 minute ago

    Tim Farron already commenting on Manchester explosion - "a shocking and horrific attack targeting children". No confirmation of this yet.

    --

    Caution advised.....

    I assume tim is smart/well connected enough to know when the balance of probability has tipped though.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Just a thought, so far not a lot of indication of shrapnel injuries but early, fairly limited images.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Pong said:

    Tom Newton Dunn‏Verified account @tnewtondunn 1m1 minute ago

    Tim Farron already commenting on Manchester explosion - "a shocking and horrific attack targeting children". No confirmation of this yet.

    --

    Caution advised.....

    I assume tim is smart/well connected enough to know when the balance of probability has tipped though.

    I don't know for certain but you would presume that party leaders are informed when attacks happen?
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Pong said:

    Tom Newton Dunn‏Verified account @tnewtondunn 1m1 minute ago

    Tim Farron already commenting on Manchester explosion - "a shocking and horrific attack targeting children". No confirmation of this yet.

    --

    Caution advised.....

    I assume tim is smart/well connected enough to know when the balance of probability has tipped though.

    I don't know for certain but you would presume that party leaders are informed when attacks happen?
    I believe Corbyn has issued a statement too
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Why would campaigning be disrespectful to the dead? Should we all.stay home, out of mourning? None of us go into work?
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Pong said:

    Tom Newton Dunn‏Verified account @tnewtondunn 1m1 minute ago

    Tim Farron already commenting on Manchester explosion - "a shocking and horrific attack targeting children". No confirmation of this yet.

    --

    Caution advised.....

    I assume tim is smart/well connected enough to know when the balance of probability has tipped though.

    I don't know for certain but you would presume that party leaders are informed when attacks happen?
    Not this quickly direct from authority no, unless via private or 3rd party contacts.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Floater said:

    Pong said:

    Tom Newton Dunn‏Verified account @tnewtondunn 1m1 minute ago

    Tim Farron already commenting on Manchester explosion - "a shocking and horrific attack targeting children". No confirmation of this yet.

    --

    Caution advised.....

    I assume tim is smart/well connected enough to know when the balance of probability has tipped though.

    I don't know for certain but you would presume that party leaders are informed when attacks happen?
    I believe Corbyn has issued a statement too
    Yup but not implying yet it's an attack
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    20 to 30 bodies in room by ticket office according to witnesses
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    20 to 30 bodies in room by ticket office according to witnesses

    Lets hope that is a rumour
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569

    Why would campaigning be disrespectful to the dead? Should we all.stay home, out of mourning? None of us go into work?
    Leaders will visit the scene as a show of unity and to thank emergency services for their work.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822

    20 to 30 bodies in room by ticket office according to witnesses

    Seriously?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    edited May 2017
    Dura_Ace said:



    Very handy for May. She'll get to wheel out her Servalan act.



    :(
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Whatever happened was in foyer - so not a speaker if correct

    British transport police say it was an explosion
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    GIN1138 said:

    20 to 30 bodies in room by ticket office according to witnesses

    Seriously?
    It's what I've read from someone who wouldn't make this up
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited May 2017
    Floater said:

    20 to 30 bodies in room by ticket office according to witnesses

    Lets hope that is a rumour
    NBC reporter on twitter is saying 20+ dead.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Floater said:

    Whatever happened was in foyer - so not a speaker if correct

    British transport police say it was an explosion

    Yeah but what type.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Floater said:

    Whatever happened was in foyer - so not a speaker if correct

    British transport police say it was an explosion

    Makes sense if detonated just as the encore ended and lights went up. Would do max harm as people leaving.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    Floater said:

    20 to 30 bodies in room by ticket office according to witnesses

    Lets hope that is a rumour
    NBC reporter on twitter is saying 20+ dead.
    Jeez, that's terrible.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    edited May 2017

    Floater said:

    20 to 30 bodies in room by ticket office according to witnesses

    Lets hope that is a rumour
    NBC reporter on twitter is saying 20+ dead.
    This sounds terrible.

    When I read the first report at the Mail I thought it was going to be something relatively minor...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    20 to 30 bodies in room by ticket office according to witnesses

    Lets hope that is a rumour
    NBC reporter on twitter is saying 20+ dead.
    Jeez, that's terrible.
    Saying now 100s injuried.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Tom Newton Dunn saying unconfirmed reports it was a nail bomb.
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    Hearing from friends at home that they could feel the explosion, so we need to brace ourselves, I think.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    Tom Newton Dunn saying unconfirmed reports it was a nail bomb.

    Sick. at a concert full of children/teens.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Again, I'm going to say wait. Something that destructive looks like an deliberate explosion but in any densely packed area any large bang accidental or not is going to cause damage.

    Eyewitness reports really lack any thread.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    That's the GE off the top of the media for the rest of the week.
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Looking at Tim Farron's statement and the language used he must know something. You can't use that sort of language otherwise.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Y0kel said:

    Again, I'm going to say wait. Something that destructive looks like an deliberate explosion but in any densely packed area any large bang accidental or not is going to cause damage.

    Eyewitness reports really lack any thread.

    You are right - it could be the stampede which caused the fatalities after a minor explosion. As ever, getting ahead of myself.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Y0kel said:

    Again, I'm going to say wait. Something that destructive looks like an deliberate explosion but in any densely packed area any large bang accidental or not is going to cause damage.

    Eyewitness reports really lack any thread.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/22/manchester-arena-evacuated-reports-gunshots-explosion/

    sound of explosion there
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Ok, the suicide bomber(s) idea is now being floated.
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    PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Y0kel said:

    Ok, the suicide bomber(s) idea is now being floated.

    floated by who ?
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    RobD said:

    Y0kel said:

    Again, I'm going to say wait. Something that destructive looks like an deliberate explosion but in any densely packed area any large bang accidental or not is going to cause damage.

    Eyewitness reports really lack any thread.

    You are right - it could be the stampede which caused the fatalities after a minor explosion. As ever, getting ahead of myself.
    Sky saying "huge explosion that knocked people off their feet" (reports I should say)
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    Heartbreaking call of eyewitness on Radio Manc - bomb in the foyer.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited May 2017
    If this is an islamist attack, I'm afraid we need to implement what SeanT has been advocating. Ban cousin marriages, ban the face veil, prosecute FGM, ban foreign funding for Mosques, close down salafi/whabbist mosques etc etc. We need to push the extremists out. We do the above and they will go.

    I have been very reluctant to say this, but we clearly have a much bigger problem on our hands then we ever thought we would.
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    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Awful news. I am really starting to feel on edge in crowded places.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    PaulM said:

    Y0kel said:

    Ok, the suicide bomber(s) idea is now being floated.

    floated by who ?
    Its been floated, thats all.
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    RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    There's video floating around of armed police arresting someone.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986

    Floater said:

    Whatever happened was in foyer - so not a speaker if correct

    British transport police say it was an explosion

    Makes sense if detonated just as the encore ended and lights went up. Would do max harm as people leaving.
    Went 2 see a gig on Friday. Did (briefly) cross my mind what a bomb in the foyer could do. Lost for words right now.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    nunu said:

    If this is an islamist attack, I'm afraid we need to implement what SeanT has been advocating. Ban cousin marriages, ban the face veil, prosecute FGM, ban forein funding for Mosques, close down salafi/whabbist mosques etc etc. We need to push the extremists out. We do the above and they will go.

    WAIT until we find out the facts!!!!!
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    nunu said:

    If this is an islamist attack, I'm afraid we need to implement what SeanT has been advocating. Ban cousin marriages, ban the face veil, prosecute FGM, ban foreign funding for Mosques, close down salafi/whabbist mosques etc etc. We need to push the extremists out. We do the above and they will go.

    I have been very reluctant to say this, but we clearly have a much bigger problem on our hands then we ever thought we would.

    How exactly are any of those going to stop maniacs with nail bombs?
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    RobD said:

    Y0kel said:

    Again, I'm going to say wait. Something that destructive looks like an deliberate explosion but in any densely packed area any large bang accidental or not is going to cause damage.

    Eyewitness reports really lack any thread.

    You are right - it could be the stampede which caused the fatalities after a minor explosion. As ever, getting ahead of myself.
    If you look at some of the walking wounded, no shrapnel, all lower limbs and bleeding ears so a people knocked over situation is likely. What we don't see is who is being wheeled out.

    Credit to the cops they look to have made a tight cordon against media.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    Rhubarb said:

    There's video floating around of armed police arresting someone.

    AIUI, arrests of anyone who looks even remotely suspicious is pretty much par for the course in a situation like this.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    Please can we keep speculation to the minimum...it really doesn't help...
This discussion has been closed.