Did some phoning tonight and not much mention of social care apart from 1 who wanted more to be done for the elderly. The only negative comment I had about the Tory manifesto was free school lunches being replaced by free breakfasts
Trouble is, nobody sees whether the child gets a breakfast; but everybody sees whether s/he gets a lunch. Could mean extra expenditure for some families.
Yes but I don't think it will sway too many people apart from Jamie Oliver
Just read a comment by Guido Fawkes, that the MSM have pumped up this controversy over social care because they are BORED. It reminds me of a comment David Cameron made about the media trying to turn politics into another branch of show business. How right he was. They seem to think it is all about them. No other country puts their politicians under a microscope, like we do. I'm amazed anyone wants to go into this profession. Yes, they should be scrutinised but every mistake or gaffe, just results in a massive witch hunt.
Deficit the government wanted hidden until after the election
NHS trusts will report a combined deficit for 2016-17 that significantly breaches the maximum control total set by national leaders at the start of the year, HSJ research had revealed.
I missed the Andrew Neil interview tonight. Has Theresa dodged a bullet?
As people have said May is master in dodging questions but all things considered I think she did ok.
She did OK because Jeremy Corbyn is her opponent and Theresa drew attention to that as much as humanely possible...if it was anyone else it would have been an unmitigated disaster.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No, having phoned in the Midlands female pensioners in particular are still moving from Labour and UKIP to Con, Corbyn's vote tends to be those who have always voted Labour not the switchers he would need for a chance at power, certainly no Tory to Labour switchers. May is still seen as a steady hand despite the u turn, while I got one 'I can't stand Jeremy Corbyn'
Deficit the government wanted hidden until after the election
NHS trusts will report a combined deficit for 2016-17 that significantly breaches the maximum control total set by national leaders at the start of the year, HSJ research had revealed.
I don't think anyone actually thinks the Conservatives are doing a good job with the NHS. I doubt anything like this will make a difference.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
Bingo...that was it.....I couldn't put my finger on it....
Neil: Mrs May may you are a useless, parochial, small minded Tory who has somehow lucked out and found yourself as PM largely because your party is completely useless and fucked up the referendum;
Looking forward to the Shipman book on this election, especially the plot twist half way through when Nick Timothy has to go crawling on bended knee to Crosby and ask him to take charge.
Crosby: "Did I, or did I not say, that the most important thing is that we remove all barnacles, and we don't add any others?"
Timothy: "You did, sorry."
Crosby: "So, you go and add a barnacle big enough to house a couple of Portuguese Man-o-War and put it centre stage of the manifesto launch."
Point of Information: Portuguese Men-o-war are surprisingly tiny!
Possibly he actually meant battleships flying the Portuguese ensign!
Looking forward to the Shipman book on this election, especially the plot twist half way through when Nick Timothy has to go crawling on bended knee to Crosby and ask him to take charge.
So far this election reminds me of '87.
Conservatives in good spirits heading into campaign, but cracks begin to emerge as PM is kept away from voters and Labour score some hits. Polls tighten. People get pinned up against walls with hysterical screaming that they're losing the election. Tories unleash tsunami of 'cling to nurse' campaigning in the closing stages and romp home with comfortable majority.
But will history repeat itself for the PMs fortunes in the following parliament?
But the panic in 1987 was just a week before polling day in response to a rogue Gallup Poll showing the Tory lead at just 4%.
Did some phoning tonight and not much mention of social care apart from 1 who wanted more to be done for the elderly. The only negative comment I had about the Tory manifesto was free school lunches being replaced by free breakfasts
Trouble is, nobody sees whether the child gets a breakfast; but everybody sees whether s/he gets a lunch. Could mean extra expenditure for some families.
Yes but I don't think it will sway too many people apart from Jamie Oliver
Speaking as a teacher I find this breakfast thing quite odd. I can see that it has benefited some children, both because they eat something sensible before school, and because they get to school in good time. But breakfast at home, especially family breakfast, is a very good habit and it's surely one we should be encouraging rather than replacing. I wonder if the govt has been swayed by the fact that providing breakfasts is relatively cheap.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
Nick Timothy is exceedingly lucky he's an adviser in 2017 and not 1617, or he'd quite literally be off to the tower for this one.
Deficit the government wanted hidden until after the election
NHS trusts will report a combined deficit for 2016-17 that significantly breaches the maximum control total set by national leaders at the start of the year, HSJ research had revealed.
I don't think anyone actually thinks the Conservatives are doing a good job with the NHS. I doubt anything like this will make a difference.
The NHS is still getting an extra £8 billion a year over the next two years from the Tory manifesto
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No, having phoned in the Midlands female pensioners in particular are still moving from Labour and UKIP to Con, Corbyn's vote tends to be those who have always voted Labour not the switchers he would need for a chance at power, certainly no Tory to Labour switchers. May is still seen as a steady hand despite the u turn, while I got one 'I can't stand Jeremy Corbyn'
As I say, May is lucky Labour were so stupid as to allow Corbyn to be their leader (twice) when they could be ordering removal vans to get their stuff into No.10
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
Nick Timothy is exceedingly lucky he's an adviser in 2017 and not 1617, or he'd quite literally be off to the tower for this one.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No, having phoned in the Midlands female pensioners in particular are still moving from Labour and UKIP to Con, Corbyn's vote tends to be those who have always voted Labour not the switchers he would need for a chance at power, certainly no Tory to Labour switchers. May is still seen as a steady hand despite the u turn, while I got one 'I can't stand Jeremy Corbyn'
As I say, May is lucky Labour were so stupid as to allow Corbyn to be their leader (twice) when they could be ordering removal vans to get their stuff into No.10
Suspect there wouldn't be a GE right now if he wasn't leader!
Not if she has already u turned on her poll tax or is Philip Hammond John Major?
The person whose meteoric rise will possibly mirror John Major is Amber Rudd, if the rumours are true. Perhaps it will be Rudd to take over as PM when May runs aground over Brexit.
Her main claim to fame is she is the late AS Gill's ex wife but I don't think May will run aground and the voters certainly won't accept €100 billion for the EU
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
Nick Timothy is exceedingly lucky he's an adviser in 2017 and not 1617, or he'd quite literally be off to the tower for this one.
And now we've all watched four series of The Thick of It we can play out in our heads what went on behind the scenes before and since the manifesto was launched.
Just read a comment by Guido Fawkes, that the MSM have pumped up this controversy over social care because they are BORED. It reminds me of a comment David Cameron made about the media trying to turn politics into another branch of show business. How right he was. They seem to think it is all about them. No other country puts their politicians under a microscope, like we do. I'm amazed anyone wants to go into this profession. Yes, they should be scrutinised but every mistake or gaffe, just results in a massive witch hunt.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
Nick Timothy is exceedingly lucky he's an adviser in 2017 and not 1617, or he'd quite literally be off to the tower for this one.
Do it anyway. He's a complete fool and clearly not a Tory.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No, having phoned in the Midlands female pensioners in particular are still moving from Labour and UKIP to Con, Corbyn's vote tends to be those who have always voted Labour not the switchers he would need for a chance at power, certainly no Tory to Labour switchers. May is still seen as a steady hand despite the u turn, while I got one 'I can't stand Jeremy Corbyn'
As I say, May is lucky Labour were so stupid as to allow Corbyn to be their leader (twice) when they could be ordering removal vans to get their stuff into No.10
Looking forward to the Shipman book on this election, especially the plot twist half way through when Nick Timothy has to go crawling on bended knee to Crosby and ask him to take charge.
Crosby: "Did I, or did I not say, that the most important thing is that we remove all barnacles, and we don't add any others?"
Timothy: "You did, sorry."
Crosby: "So, you go and add a barnacle big enough to house a couple of Portuguese Man-o-War and put it centre stage of the manifesto launch."
I have mentally cast Crosby as Ricky Ponting when the Aussies were just losing their touch, poised to sneak one more century.
Just read a comment by Guido Fawkes, that the MSM have pumped up this controversy over social care because they are BORED. It reminds me of a comment David Cameron made about the media trying to turn politics into another branch of show business. How right he was. They seem to think it is all about them. No other country puts their politicians under a microscope, like we do. I'm amazed anyone wants to go into this profession. Yes, they should be scrutinised but every mistake or gaffe, just results in a massive witch hunt.
good grief
This wasn't a gaffe.
It was someone (May, Timothy, who knows) deciding to stick a policy in a manifesto that literally no one else in the entire party knew about including front rank Cabinet ministers. Within ten seconds PBers were saying this is the biggest clusterf*** in yonks. I suppose this is what you get if a party allows leaders to decide policy without any discussion.
As the line goes in The Thick of It - "I'm only a Cabinet minister."
Notice now that Corbyn has seemingly closed the gap and the Tories have had a slight wobble that there is absolubtely no criticism of him from his own MPs
Very telling indeed I think, proves they'll fall straight into line should he somehow command the confidence of the house.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No, having phoned in the Midlands female pensioners in particular are still moving from Labour and UKIP to Con, Corbyn's vote tends to be those who have always voted Labour not the switchers he would need for a chance at power, certainly no Tory to Labour switchers. May is still seen as a steady hand despite the u turn, while I got one 'I can't stand Jeremy Corbyn'
As I say, May is lucky Labour were so stupid as to allow Corbyn to be their leader (twice) when they could be ordering removal vans to get their stuff into No.10
PM Andy Burnham or Owen Smith?
Burnham perhaps. Smith was too untested I think. Burnham to me lways seemed very opportunistic and dishonest. He was my last choice in the labour leadership election.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
Nick Timothy is exceedingly lucky he's an adviser in 2017 and not 1617, or he'd quite literally be off to the tower for this one.
And now we've all watched four series of The Thick of It we can play out in our heads what went on behind the scenes before and since the manifesto was launched.
Don't watch if you don't like bad language (and I don't mean split infinitives!)
Notice now that Corbyn has seemingly closed the gap and the Tories have had a slight wobble that there is absolubtely no criticism of him from his own MPs
Very telling indeed I think, proves they'll fall straight into line should he somehow command the confidence of the house.
They'd have to surely. I mean their central argument was he is unelectable... Which sort of goes out the window if he does then win an election!
Poor Paul Nuttall is going to get murdered by AN tomorrow.
Is he really going on? I suspect this will be the last election UKIP get that kind of opportunity. Nonetheless Nuttall will get a hammering so probably not a bad thing.
Professor Paul Nuttal won the Victoria Cross, he'll have no fears about facing Andrew Neil
North Wales:....... Con 37 (+7) Lab 42 (+10) Mid and West:..... Con 39 (+10) Lab 29 (=) SE:...................... Con 39 (+7) Lab 38 (+2) Cardiff and Sth:... Con 30 (+6) Lab 53 (+20) SW:...................... Con 26 (+2) Lab 56 (+23)
Male support for the Tories is consistent, female support has been 28, 40, 42, 30 across four polls. Tory retention is 88% -which is 2% higher than the first poll of the campaign.
Labour's retention has lifted from 69 to 87 in the same frame, while switchers from the LDs and Plaid have risen from 4% and 5% respectively to 28% apiece.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
Social care has been collapsing since the late 2000's. It's long past crisis point and, a year ago, the elderly voted for a huge chunk of those working in the care industry to *leave* the country.
It's a cross-party policy disaster, precisely because of the kind of electioneering we've just witnessed.
Notice now that Corbyn has seemingly closed the gap and the Tories have had a slight wobble that there is absolubtely no criticism of him from his own MPs
Very telling indeed I think, proves they'll fall straight into line should he somehow command the confidence of the house.
They'd have to surely. I mean their central argument was he is unelectable... Which sort of goes out the window if he does then win an election!
It'd be a leftie tribute act to Trump and his merry GOP men all over again.
Notice now that Corbyn has seemingly closed the gap and the Tories have had a slight wobble that there is absolubtely no criticism of him from his own MPs
Very telling indeed I think, proves they'll fall straight into line should he somehow command the confidence of the house.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
Social care has been collapsing since the late 2000's. It's long past crisis point and the elderly have just told a huge chunk of those in the care industry to *leave* the country.
It's a cross-party policy disaster, precisely because of the kind of electioneering we've just witnessed.
Are there any adults in the room?
Hopefully they will actually sit down and put it on a sure footing. If May does get a mandate she will at least have a mandate to do something about it.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
They were going for the strong and stable narrative: look at me, I'm different from that loony Mr Corbyn because I'm taking difficult decisions to long term problems and he's promising you the moon on a stick.
As a tactic, certainly fits into the brave or stupid category. I suspect the latter. They thought it would show a maturity and responsible attitude, but they forgot just how emotive the issue is to middle England. Yes, we all know the systems broke, yes, we all know that deep down other than funding care through general taxation there is going to have to be some utilisation of the users assets, but an Englishmans home is his castle and people get very upset about hearing anything that sounds like a death duty or raid on your property. It's in the national psyche.
Deficit the government wanted hidden until after the election
NHS trusts will report a combined deficit for 2016-17 that significantly breaches the maximum control total set by national leaders at the start of the year, HSJ research had revealed.
I don't think anyone actually thinks the Conservatives are doing a good job with the NHS. I doubt anything like this will make a difference.
The NHS is still getting an extra £8 billion a year over the next two years from the Tory manifesto
Notice now that Corbyn has seemingly closed the gap and the Tories have had a slight wobble that there is absolubtely no criticism of him from his own MPs
Very telling indeed I think, proves they'll fall straight into line should he somehow command the confidence of the house.
They'd have to surely. I mean their central argument was he is unelectable... Which sort of goes out the window if he does then win an election!
It'd be a leftie tribute act to Trump and his merry GOP men all over again.
It would be a sight to see. A Corbyn Trump meeting. The meltdown on pb would be pretty epic too.
Just read a comment by Guido Fawkes, that the MSM have pumped up this controversy over social care because they are BORED. It reminds me of a comment David Cameron made about the media trying to turn politics into another branch of show business. How right he was. They seem to think it is all about them. No other country puts their politicians under a microscope, like we do. I'm amazed anyone wants to go into this profession. Yes, they should be scrutinised but every mistake or gaffe, just results in a massive witch hunt.
An Englishmans home is his castle and people get very upset about hearing anything that sounds like a death duty or raid on your property. It's in the national psyche.
The irony being of course that that is what this policy would safeguard, by only taking assets post mortem rather than while the holder is still alive.
The election campaign in 1987 was generally regarded as having been won decisively by Labour. It featured slick and professional election broadcasts, such as 'Kinnock the Movie', directed by Colin Welland. The campaign was led by Bryan Gould and a young Peter Mandelson. And yet, it appears to have made f-all difference to the result.
TMay's denial today that she had made a u-turn was one of the most embarrassing performances I've ever seen from a PM (a little reminiscent to my mind of Gordon Brown's denial that the polling was what lay behind his decision not to have an election in 2007). And yet, ultimately, I don't think it'll make any difference to the fact that Labour are heading for a shattering defeat.
Channel 4 news said they could not get a conservative politician or commentator to discuss social care.This morning on the paper review there was plenty of opinion pieces saying how brave it was.
Further: Latest Results Compared to FINAL CALL YG in 2015
North Wales:....... Con 37 (+8) Lab 42 (+1) - swing to Con 3.5% Mid and West:..... Con 39 (+12) Lab 29 (+4) - swing to Con 4% SE:...................... Con 39 (+19) Lab 38 (-9) - swing to Con 14% Cardiff and Sth:... Con 30 (+5) Lab 53 (+16) - swing to Lab 5.5% SW:...................... Con 26 (+6) Lab 56 (+9) - swing to Lab 1.5%
Granny still loses her house when she dies despite the evasion
My Gran lost her home during the Blair years when she needed care.
Well the new policy means a massive expansion in House losing.
Nobody currently receiving care at home can lose their house.
That all changed a week ago.
80% of people getting social care get it at home.
They now have worries that didnt exist a week ago.
Under the policy no one receiving care at home would lose their house. More importantly no one receiving care in a carehome would lose it either. The money would only be taken from the estate after the deaths of the elderly person and their partner. That is a vast improvement on the current situation.
Moreover care at home is a fraction of the cost of care in a carehome. For the vast majority of people receiving care at home they are getting an hour a day - sometimes a couple of hours. The cost is around £17 an hour so you are looking at something like £20 a day - maybe £7,500 - £8,000 a year. So the claim on the estate would not be a vast amount compared to the value of most estates. Overall it is certainly a vast improvement on the current situation for both the individuals and the country.
You do not understand how the current system works most do not pay £17 per hour. The most you pay unless you have lots and lots of capital is £41 per week.
I am not going to explain it for the hundreth time particularly to someone like you who has a closed mind on the matter. In my wifes case the£41 per week increases to over £400 pw if the house is part of capital ie 20k per year she is 57 and will need the care till she dies.
Goodnight
It is you who clearly are clueless. The cost of the care is not proposed to change, only how it is paid for. It is you who have the closed mind. You have a knee jerk reaction against the proposals without even finding out what is proposed. Oh and my numbers are accurate and from direct personal experience with my family.
Without getting too personal on this but if someone is going to need £400pw care for the rest of their life then presumably there's every chance in future the person may need to go in to a care home and not be able to stay at home - so any min. cap of £100k underpin would be a positive to the £23k that otherwise would apply?
This does also rather highlight the inequality & lottery between 3rd party care in home vs 3rd party care at a care/nursing home does it not?
I have to say my clients still at home who receive care are all paying full whack private costs for what they get.
Channel 4 news said they could not get a conservative politician or commentator to discuss social care.This morning on the paper review there was plenty of opinion pieces saying how brave it was.
It is still a big change, bringing the house into the equation, and making it the same for in-house care as well as residential care.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
They were going for the strong and stable narrative: look at me, I'm different from that loony Mr Corbyn because I'm taking difficult decisions to long term problems and he's promising you the moon on a stick.
As a tactic, certainly fits into the brave or stupid category. I suspect the latter. They thought it would show a maturity and responsible attitude, but they forgot just how emotive the issue is to middle England. Yes, we all know the systems broke, yes, we all know that deep down other than funding care through general taxation there is going to have to be some utilisation of the users assets, but an Englishmans home is his castle and people get very upset about hearing anything that sounds like a death duty or raid on your property. It's in the national psyche.
Yep. And hilariously the Tories know this because they launched a highly successful attack on "Death Tax" on old people's property the last time this was seriously debated.
Honestly, as someone said this morning, they should make PB threads a SPAD and they would have more idea how to avoid such obvious f***-ups.
Channel 4 news said they could not get a conservative politician or commentator to discuss social care.This morning on the paper review there was plenty of opinion pieces saying how brave it was.
The election campaign in 1987 was generally regarded as having been won decisively by Labour. It featured slick and professional election broadcasts, such as 'Kinnock the Movie', directed by Colin Welland. The campaign was led by Bryan Gould and a young Peter Mandelson. And yet, it appears to have made f-all difference to the result.
According to Peter Mandelson's memoirs they saw 1987 as the true existential test for Labour vs the SDP. Without Labour's very successful campaign the Alliance's 22.6% could easily have been higher and the FPTP results would have been dramatically different.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
They were going for the strong and stable narrative: look at me, I'm different from that loony Mr Corbyn because I'm taking difficult decisions to long term problems and he's promising you the moon on a stick.
As a tactic, certainly fits into the brave or stupid category. I suspect the latter. They thought it would show a maturity and responsible attitude, but they forgot just how emotive the issue is to middle England. Yes, we all know the systems broke, yes, we all know that deep down other than funding care through general taxation there is going to have to be some utilisation of the users assets, but an Englishmans home is his castle and people get very upset about hearing anything that sounds like a death duty or raid on your property. It's in the national psyche.
True but how do older people expect care to be paid? By working age people who cannot even get onto the housing ladder or benefit from generous pensions? There is an issue with this country about intwr-generational fairness that we need to consider. I'm not saying that the original Conservative proposal is necessarily the answer but the care users assets have to be a consideration.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
They were going for the strong and stable narrative: look at me, I'm different from that loony Mr Corbyn because I'm taking difficult decisions to long term problems and he's promising you the moon on a stick.
As a tactic, certainly fits into the brave or stupid category. I suspect the latter. They thought it would show a maturity and responsible attitude, but they forgot just how emotive the issue is to middle England. Yes, we all know the systems broke, yes, we all know that deep down other than funding care through general taxation there is going to have to be some utilisation of the users assets, but an Englishmans home is his castle and people get very upset about hearing anything that sounds like a death duty or raid on your property. It's in the national psyche.
Either that or she's been reading Proudhon and has decided that since private property is theft, the State should intervene and confiscate it - on behalf of the proletariat of course.
Am I wrong in sensing that the air from the balloon of hysteria over social care is quickly deflating because of a) boredom; b) the U-turn; c) Theresa May's stonewalling interview? Probably. I was certain Ed Miliband was on his way to Number 10 in 2015.
Further: Latest Results Compared to FINAL CALL YG in 2015
North Wales:....... Con 37 (+8) Lab 42 (+1) - swing to Con 3.5% Mid and West:..... Con 39 (+12) Lab 29 (+4) - swing to Con 4% SE:...................... Con 39 (+19) Lab 38 (-9) - swing to Con 14% Cardiff and Sth:... Con 30 (+5) Lab 53 (+16) - swing to Lab 5.5% SW:...................... Con 26 (+6) Lab 56 (+9) - swing to Lab 1.5%
Food for thought.
Only subsamples but you would expect Labour to be doing better in metropolitan Cardiff to the English border areas where UKIP were strong.
Am I wrong in sensing that the air from the balloon of hysteria over social care is quickly deflating because of a) boredom; b) the U-turn; c) Theresa May's stonewalling interview? Probably. I was certain Ed Miliband was on his way to Number 10 in 2015.
Am I wrong in sensing that the air from the balloon of hysteria over social care is quickly deflating because of a) boredom; b) the U-turn; c) Theresa May's stonewalling interview? Probably. I was certain Ed Miliband was on his way to Number 10 in 2015.
Soon be time for the fun to be had from kicking Corbyn.... Labour has had a remarkably easy ride. So far.....
An Englishmans home is his castle and people get very upset about hearing anything that sounds like a death duty or raid on your property. It's in the national psyche.
The irony being of course that that is what this policy would safeguard, by only taking assets post mortem rather than while the holder is still alive.
Exactly. But people don't like that. There's a lot of emotions around inheritance tax. Older people fear that they won't leave anything behind for their children. It means a lot to them to be able to pass something on - a way of helping and supporting from the beyond, I guess. They instinctively hate the thought of the state getting a huge chunk of it.
The election campaign in 1987 was generally regarded as having been won decisively by Labour. It featured slick and professional election broadcasts, such as 'Kinnock the Movie', directed by Colin Welland. The campaign was led by Bryan Gould and a young Peter Mandelson. And yet, it appears to have made f-all difference to the result.
TMay's denial today that she had made a u-turn was one of the most embarrassing performances I've ever seen from a PM (a little reminiscent to my mind of Gordon Brown's denial that the polling was what lay behind his decision not to have an election in 2007). And yet, ultimately, I don't think it'll make any difference to the fact that Labour are heading for a shattering defeat.
I would say it did make a difference to the result as it helped Labour beat the Alliance - something which had been in doubt at the start of the election campaign.
Likewise Labour are having a much better campaign than the LibDems this year - although ironically Labour are likely to lose MPs and the LibDems to gain them.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
Social care has been collapsing since the late 2000's. It's long past crisis point and, a year ago, the elderly voted for a huge chunk of those working in the care industry to *leave* the country.
It's a cross-party policy disaster, precisely because of the kind of electioneering we've just witnessed.
Are there any adults in the room?
I agree with you Pong. It has been a disaster. A cross-party disaster. And whilst it is true that the Tories reaped with the Dementia Tax what they sowed with the Death Tax, we are all going to lose if we can’t get a sensible policy on this.
I also think the point you made about the people who work in the care industry is worth emphasising.
In my mother’s care home, every resident was white British. Every care home worker was not. They were from the Philippines or Bangladesh or the Ukraine & even Uzbekistan.
These are the people we pay shitty wages to because we are too mean to fund social care properly.
The election campaign in 1987 was generally regarded as having been won decisively by Labour. It featured slick and professional election broadcasts, such as 'Kinnock the Movie', directed by Colin Welland. The campaign was led by Bryan Gould and a young Peter Mandelson. And yet, it appears to have made f-all difference to the result.
TMay's denial today that she had made a u-turn was one of the most embarrassing performances I've ever seen from a PM (a little reminiscent to my mind of Gordon Brown's denial that the polling was what lay behind his decision not to have an election in 2007). And yet, ultimately, I don't think it'll make any difference to the fact that Labour are heading for a shattering defeat.
I would say it did make a difference to the result as it helped Labour beat the Alliance - something which had been in doubt at the start of the election campaign.
Likewise Labour are having a much better campaign than the LibDems this year - although ironically Labour are likely to lose MPs and the LibDems to gain them.
Am I wrong in sensing that the air from the balloon of hysteria over social care is quickly deflating because of a) boredom; b) the U-turn; c) Theresa May's stonewalling interview? Probably. I was certain Ed Miliband was on his way to Number 10 in 2015.
I think you are right. The GE is as far in the future as the 4 May local elections are in the past, and 4 May feels like a lifetime ago already. This doesn't apply to postal votes, obv, and I'd expect a modest hit there. But lots can happen in the next 18 days.
The election campaign in 1987 was generally regarded as having been won decisively by Labour. It featured slick and professional election broadcasts, such as 'Kinnock the Movie', directed by Colin Welland. The campaign was led by Bryan Gould and a young Peter Mandelson. And yet, it appears to have made f-all difference to the result.
TMay's denial today that she had made a u-turn was one of the most embarrassing performances I've ever seen from a PM (a little reminiscent to my mind of Gordon Brown's denial that the polling was what lay behind his decision not to have an election in 2007). And yet, ultimately, I don't think it'll make any difference to the fact that Labour are heading for a shattering defeat.
I would say it did make a difference to the result as it helped Labour beat the Alliance - something which had been in doubt at the start of the election campaign.
Likewise Labour are having a much better campaign than the LibDems this year - although ironically Labour are likely to lose MPs and the LibDems to gain them.
I would say that Kinnock turning on Militant two years previously was the decisive moment for their existential survival.
Further: Latest Results Compared to FINAL CALL YG in 2015
North Wales:....... Con 37 (+8) Lab 42 (+1) - swing to Con 3.5% Mid and West:..... Con 39 (+12) Lab 29 (+4) - swing to Con 4% SE:...................... Con 39 (+19) Lab 38 (-9) - swing to Con 14% Cardiff and Sth:... Con 30 (+5) Lab 53 (+16) - swing to Lab 5.5% SW:...................... Con 26 (+6) Lab 56 (+9) - swing to Lab 1.5%
Food for thought.
From that lot I'd expect first time incumbency + UKIP squeeze to eek out a narrow victory for Byron. Cardiff in general looks very good for Labour with a comfortable hold in Central and possibly Cardiff North with its strong remain being up for grabs for Labour.
Both Newport seats perhaps still in potential danger, though regional subsamples from Wales aren't going to be entirely reliable.
The overall picture as I reiterate looks poor for Plaid and the Lib Dems.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
They were going for the strong and stable narrative: look at me, I'm different from that loony Mr Corbyn because I'm taking difficult decisions to long term problems and he's promising you the moon on a stick.
As a tactic, certainly fits into the brave or stupid category. I suspect the latter. They thought it would show a maturity and responsible attitude, but they forgot just how emotive the issue is to middle England. Yes, we all know the systems broke, yes, we all know that deep down other than funding care through general taxation there is going to have to be some utilisation of the users assets, but an Englishmans home is his castle and people get very upset about hearing anything that sounds like a death duty or raid on your property. It's in the national psyche.
True but how do older people expect care to be paid? By working age people who cannot even get onto the housing ladder or benefit from generous pensions? There is an issue with this country about intwr-generational fairness that we need to consider. I'm not saying that the original Conservative proposal is necessarily the answer but the care users assets have to be a consideration.
I agree with the broad thrust of what you're saying - I suspect a lot of people would.
But it's the emotional issue. People fear death taxes. A lot of people fear the concept when they actually sit below the threshold.
The NHS is another emotive subject. Most people know, deep down, the system is unsustainable but any reform is terrifying - particularly to the left -and you cannot touch it without causing a disturbance in the force.
Notice now that Corbyn has seemingly closed the gap and the Tories have had a slight wobble that there is absolubtely no criticism of him from his own MPs
Very telling indeed I think, proves they'll fall straight into line should he somehow command the confidence of the house.
They're completely f*****.
I have yet to see a piece of Labour campaign literature that mentions The Leader. This is because they know he is....er....'not an electoral asset'.
I think they all know how they would be faring now if they had a more credible Leader, but then I doubt May would have called the election if the opposition had been a little stiffer.
The election campaign in 1987 was generally regarded as having been won decisively by Labour. It featured slick and professional election broadcasts, such as 'Kinnock the Movie', directed by Colin Welland. The campaign was led by Bryan Gould and a young Peter Mandelson. And yet, it appears to have made f-all difference to the result.
TMay's denial today that she had made a u-turn was one of the most embarrassing performances I've ever seen from a PM (a little reminiscent to my mind of Gordon Brown's denial that the polling was what lay behind his decision not to have an election in 2007). And yet, ultimately, I don't think it'll make any difference to the fact that Labour are heading for a shattering defeat.
Very much agree.Makes you wonder why the angst from Conservatives .Surely their internal polls are telling that they are heading for 150 maj and social care will not change that.
Further: Latest Results Compared to FINAL CALL YG in 2015
North Wales:....... Con 37 (+8) Lab 42 (+1) - swing to Con 3.5% Mid and West:..... Con 39 (+12) Lab 29 (+4) - swing to Con 4% SE:...................... Con 39 (+19) Lab 38 (-9) - swing to Con 14% Cardiff and Sth:... Con 30 (+5) Lab 53 (+16) - swing to Lab 5.5% SW:...................... Con 26 (+6) Lab 56 (+9) - swing to Lab 1.5%
Food for thought.
Only subsamples but you would expect Labour to be doing better in metropolitan Cardiff to the English border areas where UKIP were strong.
So those numbers make sense.
Errr... The SE is the English border areas.
UKIP were strong in the SE and Cardiff and the South. One is swinging 14 % to the Tories, one 5.5 per cent to Labour.
The numbers clearly are just dominated by sampling noise,
The crucial thing for Labour, by the way, is what is the swing in the NE were there are the 4 most vulnerable seats.
Out and about in Edinburgh South and Southwest constituencies today. Surprised to see a couple of posters for the Greens. They are not standing in these places. I don't know if the people displaying their posters will actually turn up to vote and be baffled by a lack of a box to put their intended cross against.
Anectdotally it seems the SNP are putting more effort into keeping Southwest, which is under attack from the Conservatives than trying to win South from Labour. They have the probable loss of West to the Lib Dems to contend with and North and Leith isn't totally safe either. Perhaps they are having to marshall their resources.
The election campaign in 1987 was generally regarded as having been won decisively by Labour. It featured slick and professional election broadcasts, such as 'Kinnock the Movie', directed by Colin Welland. The campaign was led by Bryan Gould and a young Peter Mandelson. And yet, it appears to have made f-all difference to the result.
TMay's denial today that she had made a u-turn was one of the most embarrassing performances I've ever seen from a PM (a little reminiscent to my mind of Gordon Brown's denial that the polling was what lay behind his decision not to have an election in 2007). And yet, ultimately, I don't think it'll make any difference to the fact that Labour are heading for a shattering defeat.
Very much agree.Makes you wonder why the angst from Conservatives .Surely their internal polls are telling that they are heading for 150 maj and social care will not change that.
Doorstep polling round here has never faltered. Excellent results again tonight. Well up on 2015.
Looking forward to the Shipman book on this election, especially the plot twist half way through when Nick Timothy has to go crawling on bended knee to Crosby and ask him to take charge.
So far this election reminds me of '87.
Conservatives in good spirits heading into campaign, but cracks begin to emerge as PM is kept away from voters and Labour score some hits. Polls tighten. People get pinned up against walls with hysterical screaming that they're losing the election. Tories unleash tsunami of 'cling to nurse' campaigning in the closing stages and romp home with comfortable majority.
But will history repeat itself for the PMs fortunes in the following parliament?
But the panic in 1987 was just a week before polling day in response to a rogue Gallup Poll showing the Tory lead at just 4%.
There were a number of polls in mid single figures that gave Conservatives the jitters in 1987.
Do people think Corbyn is going to win the election now?
No. But remember the only poll that counts is the one on June 8th
I do wonder what May was thinking of with the social care policy. It does need tacking and complete state support isn't the answer. I suppose at least it has sparked a debate about that needs to happen but in an election campaign when you have a substantial lead?
They were going for the strong and stable narrative: look at me, I'm different from that loony Mr Corbyn because I'm taking difficult decisions to long term problems and he's promising you the moon on a stick.
As a tactic, certainly fits into the brave or stupid category. I suspect the latter. They thought it would show a maturity and responsible attitude, but they forgot just how emotive the issue is to middle England. Yes, we all know the systems broke, yes, we all know that deep down other than funding care through general taxation there is going to have to be some utilisation of the users assets, but an Englishmans home is his castle and people get very upset about hearing anything that sounds like a death duty or raid on your property. It's in the national psyche.
True but how do older people expect care to be paid? By working age people who cannot even get onto the housing ladder or benefit from generous pensions? There is an issue with this country about intwr-generational fairness that we need to consider. I'm not saying that the original Conservative proposal is necessarily the answer but the care users assets have to be a consideration.
Of course they do. I find it really hard to understand why so many people are so set against using what they have managed to save to pay for their needs in later life.
There is something so self-absorbed in considering only one's own family at the expense of other young people.
Comments
NHS trusts will report a combined deficit for 2016-17 that significantly breaches the maximum control total set by national leaders at the start of the year, HSJ research had revealed.
She did OK because Jeremy Corbyn is her opponent and Theresa drew attention to that as much as humanely possible...if it was anyone else it would have been an unmitigated disaster.
But if Corbyn gets 32%+, it is going to be bloody.... Maybe you should advise people to vote Tory to get your Labour Party back?
It was someone (May, Timothy, who knows) deciding to stick a policy in a manifesto that literally no one else in the entire party knew about including front rank Cabinet ministers. Within ten seconds PBers were saying this is the biggest clusterf*** in yonks. I suppose this is what you get if a party allows leaders to decide policy without any discussion.
As the line goes in The Thick of It - "I'm only a Cabinet minister."
Very telling indeed I think, proves they'll fall straight into line should he somehow command the confidence of the house.
Burnham to me lways seemed very opportunistic and dishonest. He was my last choice in the labour leadership election.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvNusbjWFtA
Since the January Barometer:
North Wales:....... Con 37 (+7) Lab 42 (+10)
Mid and West:..... Con 39 (+10) Lab 29 (=)
SE:...................... Con 39 (+7) Lab 38 (+2)
Cardiff and Sth:... Con 30 (+6) Lab 53 (+20)
SW:...................... Con 26 (+2) Lab 56 (+23)
Male support for the Tories is consistent, female support has been 28, 40, 42, 30 across four polls. Tory retention is 88% -which is 2% higher than the first poll of the campaign.
Labour's retention has lifted from 69 to 87 in the same frame, while switchers from the LDs and Plaid have risen from 4% and 5% respectively to 28% apiece.
It's a cross-party policy disaster, precisely because of the kind of electioneering we've just witnessed.
Are there any adults in the room?
As a tactic, certainly fits into the brave or stupid category. I suspect the latter. They thought it would show a maturity and responsible attitude, but they forgot just how emotive the issue is to middle England. Yes, we all know the systems broke, yes, we all know that deep down other than funding care through general taxation there is going to have to be some utilisation of the users assets, but an Englishmans home is his castle and people get very upset about hearing anything that sounds like a death duty or raid on your property. It's in the national psyche.
Labour have given up on Cannock Chase and clearly expect Milling to hold very easily.
Corbyn is coming here to campaign tomorrow.
The meltdown on pb would be pretty epic too.
TMay's denial today that she had made a u-turn was one of the most embarrassing performances I've ever seen from a PM (a little reminiscent to my mind of Gordon Brown's denial that the polling was what lay behind his decision not to have an election in 2007). And yet, ultimately, I don't think it'll make any difference to the fact that Labour are heading for a shattering defeat.
North Wales:....... Con 37 (+8) Lab 42 (+1) - swing to Con 3.5%
Mid and West:..... Con 39 (+12) Lab 29 (+4) - swing to Con 4%
SE:...................... Con 39 (+19) Lab 38 (-9) - swing to Con 14%
Cardiff and Sth:... Con 30 (+5) Lab 53 (+16) - swing to Lab 5.5%
SW:...................... Con 26 (+6) Lab 56 (+9) - swing to Lab 1.5%
Food for thought.
This does also rather highlight the inequality & lottery between 3rd party care in home vs 3rd party care at a care/nursing home does it not?
I have to say my clients still at home who receive care are all paying full whack private costs for what they get.
Honestly, as someone said this morning, they should make PB threads a SPAD and they would have more idea how to avoid such obvious f***-ups.
In 2015/6 The Gross deficit was 2.42 Bn no Bailout funds available.
So those numbers make sense.
https://twitter.com/Xtinahopkinson/status/866698336908312576
Likewise Labour are having a much better campaign than the LibDems this year - although ironically Labour are likely to lose MPs and the LibDems to gain them.
I also think the point you made about the people who work in the care industry is worth emphasising.
In my mother’s care home, every resident was white British. Every care home worker was not. They were from the Philippines or Bangladesh or the Ukraine & even Uzbekistan.
These are the people we pay shitty wages to because we are too mean to fund social care properly.
Both Newport seats perhaps still in potential danger, though regional subsamples from Wales aren't going to be entirely reliable.
The overall picture as I reiterate looks poor for Plaid and the Lib Dems.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/22/tory-manifesto-unravelled-just-four-days/
Definitely saying it was Nick Timothy. Last minute. Against advice of No.10 policy chief. Only Hammond knew from Cabinet.
But it's the emotional issue. People fear death taxes. A lot of people fear the concept when they actually sit below the threshold.
The NHS is another emotive subject. Most people know, deep down, the system is unsustainable but any reform is terrifying - particularly to the left -and you cannot touch it without causing a disturbance in the force.
I think they all know how they would be faring now if they had a more credible Leader, but then I doubt May would have called the election if the opposition had been a little stiffer.
UKIP were strong in the SE and Cardiff and the South. One is swinging 14 % to the Tories, one 5.5 per cent to Labour.
The numbers clearly are just dominated by sampling noise,
The crucial thing for Labour, by the way, is what is the swing in the NE were there are the 4 most vulnerable seats.
https://twitter.com/aaron4donvalley
https://twitter.com/helenharrisonuk?lang=en
It doesn't look like the Conservative targeting is changing.
Anectdotally it seems the SNP are putting more effort into keeping Southwest, which is under attack from the Conservatives than trying to win South from Labour. They have the probable loss of West to the Lib Dems to contend with and North and Leith isn't totally safe either. Perhaps they are having to marshall their resources.
There is something so self-absorbed in considering only one's own family at the expense of other young people.