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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on GE2017 looking a bit more competitive and TMay’s “soci

SystemSystem Posts: 12,261
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on GE2017 looking a bit more competitive and TMay’s “social care” turnaround

As well as what’s being described as a U-turn over her manifesto pledge on social care there’ve been two new polls during the day all showing LAB making progress.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited May 2017
    Current thoughts...

    image
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Welsh book set up against Plaid Cmyru pretty much now.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @IanDunt: Jaws theme tune. https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/866638820472737793
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    Still think is the story of the day

    https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/866684809741037573

    Just remember in 2015 that sources close to Sir Lynton NEVER EVER complained about Dave or the campaign.

    So that's a yuuuuge intervention.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited May 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Just remember in 2015 that sources close to Sir Lynton NEVER EVER complained about Dave or the campaign.

    So that's a yuuuuge intervention.

    How many such stories might make their way onto the pages of the Evening Standard, I wonder?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    Scott_P said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Just remember in 2015 that sources close to Sir Lynton NEVER EVER complained about Dave or the campaign.

    So that's a yuuuuge intervention.

    How may such stories might make their way onto the pages of the Evening Standard, I wonder?
    No idea.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838
    Can something not be done about these multiple threads?

    May was eviscerated on PM in highly entertaining style. And the Tories declined to put a spokesperson up! On PM!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    The Neil interview tonight is a chance for her to tourniquet the wound. OTOH if she buckles the slump goes on.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Eagles, you may be right.

    As an aside, the Con share hasn't changed that much, nationwide, right? It's mostly Labour surging.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    You know what? Screw it, I'm calling it, the u turn will damage the Tories more than the original proposal. Watch it unfold and if I'm wrong I'm losing money
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    edited May 2017
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, you may be right.

    As an aside, the Con share hasn't changed that much, nationwide, right? It's mostly Labour surging.

    The third parties (Except the SNP) are getting squeezed like there is no tommorow. Namely Plaid, UKIP, Greens and the Lib Dems.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Do we have today's pampers count for the PB Tory bedwetters ?

    I fear a surge from 7:30pm after the Andrew Neil/Theresa May interview.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    dyedwoolie said:

    The Neil interview tonight is a chance for her to tourniquet the wound. OTOH if she buckles the slump goes on.

    she should drop all this nanny state stuff and give us some real tory red meat. A tax cut now!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @IanDunt: Jaws theme tune. https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/866638820472737793

    The good news for Tess is that most people will be watching Emmerdale Farm and Coronation Street so hardly anyone will see it...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, you may be right.

    As an aside, the Con share hasn't changed that much, nationwide, right? It's mostly Labour surging.

    So it seems, inexplicably (if there was a response to poor Tory policies, you'd figure there'd be drop off too, of more significant size).

    I see normal service resumed in Wales. Either the original polls were just wrong, the surge is wrong, or people in Wales and other areas are really spooked by a big Tory lead (which in Wales, is any Tory lead).
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    FPT:

    Don't know why this site worships ICM so much when they hardly smashed the last election. It was even an ICM poll which showed Labour ahead by about 2 or so points in the last stage of the campaign.

    In the EU referendum it was Survation who polled closest to the result.

    Nick Timothy needs to be cancelled.

    May running government around her advisors is not a strategy unique to her - Cameron and Osborne did it as well. Though I think looking at New Labour and post 2010 Conservative governments government by SpAd has been tried and tested to destruction.

    The worry for May isn't that she'll lose the GE. The worry is far bigger than that, it's clear that she is has nowhere near the competence to negotiate a good Brexit deal. Neither does Corbyn. Britain's poor leaders will lead the country off a cliff.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Time to send Michael Fallon out again with his back stabbing agenda.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    https://twitter.com/spectator/status/866691227856535553
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    These districts are evil beinchord bastarts!

    https://twitter.com/BryanDawsonUSA/status/866697189627658240

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,972
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @IanDunt: Jaws theme tune. https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/866638820472737793

    The good news for Tess is that most people will be watching Emmerdale and Coronation Street so hardly anyone will see it...
    We'll see. I think quite a few will tune in.

    May will, probably, do fine. Forewarned, and all the rest of it, she'll have been briefed and prepared to the gills.
    If she blows it, then it really will tarnish the brand.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    TM is a wounded fox - will Neil show metropolitan compassion or a countryside mercy killing ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    Monksfield said:

    Can something not be done about these multiple threads?

    May was eviscerated on PM in highly entertaining style. And the Tories declined to put a spokesperson up! On PM!

    The "we asked the Conservatives to put up a minister but they declined" is heard several times a day now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    calum said:

    TM is a wounded fox - will Neil show metropolitan compassion or a countryside mercy killing ?

    :lol:
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    JackW said:

    Do we have today's pampers count for the PB Tory bedwetters ?

    I fear a surge from 7:30pm after the Andrew Neil/Theresa May interview.

    no adverts for them or incontinence pads either appearing on my personalised sidebars which is unfortunate given today's developments.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    SeanT said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    You know what? Screw it, I'm calling it, the u turn will damage the Tories more than the original proposal. Watch it unfold and if I'm wrong I'm losing money

    Nah. She's taking the hit, it's deeply embarrassing, it will impact her personal ratings, but no one wants to vote for Corbyn. She's given the people an excuse to forgive her, and vote for her, even if they now think she is a "silly woman" (like my Mum does)

    But she certainly needs a flawless campaign from now on, and a relentless focus on Labour's ludicrous proposals and even more ludicrous leader.

    I expect the polls to steady, and, if there are no more gaffes, perhaps a slight drifting back from Labour's recent highs.

    She is still on a fairly remarkable 47 points with ICM. That would, I am sure, give her a three figure majority. If it did, we would soon forget Dementia Fuel Multifuck.
    I take your point but these things do have a habit of snowballing.
    I'm off for the evening anyway, cheerio all
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Yorkcity said:

    Time to send Michael Fallon out again with his back stabbing agenda.

    John Major on Corbyn's clear and present danger to national security might also be played?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Overarching theme of all the welsh polls is a big return to two party politics in Wales.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838
    The_Apocalypse said:

    FPT:

    Don't know why this site worships ICM so much when they hardly smashed the last election. It was even an ICM poll which showed Labour ahead by about 2 or so points in the last stage of the campaign.

    In the EU referendum it was Survation who polled closest to the result.

    Nick Timothy needs to be cancelled.

    May running government around her advisors is not a strategy unique to her - Cameron and Osborne did it as well. Though I think looking at New Labour and post 2010 Conservative governments government by SpAd has been tried and tested to destruction.

    The worry for May isn't that she'll lose the GE. The worry is far bigger than that, it's clear that she is has nowhere near the competence to negotiate a good Brexit deal. Neither does Corbyn. Britain's poor leaders will lead the country off a cliff.

    I agree, it's why a very tight result will be far better than a May majority of 150. It will force the sensible to work together to defeat the loonies on right and left.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    nunu said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    The Neil interview tonight is a chance for her to tourniquet the wound. OTOH if she buckles the slump goes on.

    she should drop all this nanny state stuff and give us some real tory red meat. A tax cut now!
    The way the Conservative campaign is progressing it would be a tax cut for IRA paedophiles.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    GIN1138 said:

    https://twitter.com/spectator/status/866691227856535553

    In a rational world, changing your opinion isn't a bad thing; it's only natural. But my God, if you inhabit a world in which you feel compelled to tell people you're "strong and stable" twenty times a minute, a U-turn is a hell of a handicap.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    dyedwoolie said:

    You know what? Screw it, I'm calling it, the u turn will damage the Tories more than the original proposal. Watch it unfold and if I'm wrong I'm losing money

    I don't think so.

    Most people don't follow politics remotely closely - they don't care about the political intrigue (eg what Crosby thinks) or ups and downs - all they care about is big picture.

    They were worried about social care plans - not that worry will have been eased.

    In terms of leader perception / personality, May is miles ahead of Corbyn and U-turn won't be enough to change that.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    SeanT said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    You know what? Screw it, I'm calling it, the u turn will damage the Tories more than the original proposal. Watch it unfold and if I'm wrong I'm losing money

    Nah. She's taking the hit, it's deeply embarrassing, it will impact her personal ratings, but no one wants to vote for Corbyn. She's given the people an excuse to forgive her, and vote for her, even if they now think she is a "silly woman" (like my Mum does)

    But she certainly needs a flawless campaign from now on, and a relentless focus on Labour's ludicrous proposals and even more ludicrous leader.

    I expect the polls to steady, and, if there are no more gaffes, perhaps a slight drifting back from Labour's recent highs.

    She is still on a fairly remarkable 47 points with ICM. That would, I am sure, give her a three figure majority. If it did, we would soon forget Dementia Fuel Multifuck.
    We're all waiting with baited breath to hear what Mrs Thomas' take on the U-Turn is... ;)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    I asked Ben Page when we could expect the next Ipsos MORI poll, this is his reply

    'sure a poll will be along soon - i think ones later this week after dust settled on both manifestos will be most interesting'
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    JackW said:

    nunu said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    The Neil interview tonight is a chance for her to tourniquet the wound. OTOH if she buckles the slump goes on.

    she should drop all this nanny state stuff and give us some real tory red meat. A tax cut now!
    The way the Conservative campaign is progressing it would be a tax cut for IRA paedophiles.
    from eton
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,528
    nunu said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    The Neil interview tonight is a chance for her to tourniquet the wound. OTOH if she buckles the slump goes on.

    she should drop all this nanny state stuff and give us some real tory red meat. A tax cut now!
    She didn't rule out tax rises...so no luck there.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    LBC special report on Wales on now...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    MikeL said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    You know what? Screw it, I'm calling it, the u turn will damage the Tories more than the original proposal. Watch it unfold and if I'm wrong I'm losing money

    I don't think so.

    Most people don't follow politics remotely closely - they don't care about the political intrigue (eg what Crosby thinks) or ups and downs - all they care about is big picture.

    They were worried about social care plans - not that worry will have been eased.

    In terms of leader perception / personality, May is miles ahead of Corbyn and U-turn won't be enough to change that.
    Yes? Thank god normal voters aren't like us who hyper-analyse everything. Feeling all SeanT this morning.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    edited May 2017
    Rob's graph - worth noting that LDs appear to have stabilised.

    Thus swing this week looks like direct Con to Lab: Con -2, Lab +3, LD 0, UKIP -1.

    So Con down 2 from previous week and approx 1.5 from earlier in the campaign.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I8s2PaGt5Tv6jHgXBRqqZsqU1Qh28CaOdiBDok6Ty5c/edit#gid=1573382235
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    kle4 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, you may be right.

    As an aside, the Con share hasn't changed that much, nationwide, right? It's mostly Labour surging.

    So it seems, inexplicably (if there was a response to poor Tory policies, you'd figure there'd be drop off too, of more significant size).

    I see normal service resumed in Wales. Either the original polls were just wrong, the surge is wrong, or people in Wales and other areas are really spooked by a big Tory lead (which in Wales, is any Tory lead).
    How far adrift is this latest Welsh poll from the local election results?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Pulpstar said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, you may be right.

    As an aside, the Con share hasn't changed that much, nationwide, right? It's mostly Labour surging.

    The third parties (Except the SNP) are getting squeezed like there is no tommorow. Namely Plaid, UKIP, Greens and the Lib Dems.
    Even the SNP are down by 5 to 10% in most polls
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    SeanT said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    You know what? Screw it, I'm calling it, the u turn will damage the Tories more than the original proposal. Watch it unfold and if I'm wrong I'm losing money

    Nah. She's taking the hit, it's deeply embarrassing, it will impact her personal ratings, but no one wants to vote for Corbyn. She's given the people an excuse to forgive her, and vote for her, even if they now think she is a "silly woman" (like my Mum does)

    But she certainly needs a flawless campaign from now on, and a relentless focus on Labour's ludicrous proposals and even more ludicrous leader.

    I expect the polls to steady, and, if there are no more gaffes, perhaps a slight drifting back from Labour's recent highs.

    She is still on a fairly remarkable 47 points with ICM. That would, I am sure, give her a three figure majority. If it did, we would soon forget Dementia Fuel Multifuck.
    SeanT What do you think the cap will be ? I imagine Crosby will tell her not to say tonight in the Andrew Neil interview .The ball will be kicked into the long grass never to be found again.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838
    MikeL said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    You know what? Screw it, I'm calling it, the u turn will damage the Tories more than the original proposal. Watch it unfold and if I'm wrong I'm losing money

    I don't think so.

    Most people don't follow politics remotely closely - they don't care about the political intrigue (eg what Crosby thinks) or ups and downs - all they care about is big picture.

    They were worried about social care plans - not that worry will have been eased.

    In terms of leader perception / personality, May is miles ahead of Corbyn and U-turn won't be enough to change that.
    Why would the worry have been eased? You're now voting for an unknown outcome. She hasn't ditched the policy, just said it will be modified but not how.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    MikeL said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    You know what? Screw it, I'm calling it, the u turn will damage the Tories more than the original proposal. Watch it unfold and if I'm wrong I'm losing money

    I don't think so.

    Most people don't follow politics remotely closely - they don't care about the political intrigue (eg what Crosby thinks) or ups and downs - all they care about is big picture.

    They were worried about social care plans - not that worry will have been eased.

    In terms of leader perception / personality, May is miles ahead of Corbyn and U-turn won't be enough to change that.
    Exactly - I'm The World's Most Anxious Tory Voter (TM - geddit?) and my anxiety levels dropped from 90% to 10% after the u-turn. A rubbish policy has been fixed - that's a great thing to be trumpeted far and wide.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    You know what? Screw it, I'm calling it, the u turn will damage the Tories more than the original proposal. Watch it unfold and if I'm wrong I'm losing money

    Nah. She's taking the hit, it's deeply embarrassing, it will impact her personal ratings, but no one wants to vote for Corbyn. She's given the people an excuse to forgive her, and vote for her, even if they now think she is a "silly woman" (like my Mum does)

    But she certainly needs a flawless campaign from now on, and a relentless focus on Labour's ludicrous proposals and even more ludicrous leader.

    I expect the polls to steady, and, if there are no more gaffes, perhaps a slight drifting back from Labour's recent highs.

    She is still on a fairly remarkable 47 points with ICM. That would, I am sure, give her a three figure majority. If it did, we would soon forget Dementia Fuel Multifuck.
    SeanT What do you think the cap will be ? I imagine Crosby will tell her not to say tonight in the Andrew Neil interview .The ball will be kicked into the long grass never to be found again.
    Which would be a shame, especially if the situation is as perilous as has been described.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838
    blueblue said:

    MikeL said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    You know what? Screw it, I'm calling it, the u turn will damage the Tories more than the original proposal. Watch it unfold and if I'm wrong I'm losing money

    I don't think so.

    Most people don't follow politics remotely closely - they don't care about the political intrigue (eg what Crosby thinks) or ups and downs - all they care about is big picture.

    They were worried about social care plans - not that worry will have been eased.

    In terms of leader perception / personality, May is miles ahead of Corbyn and U-turn won't be enough to change that.
    Exactly - I'm The World's Most Anxious Tory Voter (TM - geddit?) and my anxiety levels dropped from 90% to 10% after the u-turn. A rubbish policy has been fixed - that's a great thing to be trumpeted far and wide.
    But it hasn't been fixed! Which is why she could claim it wasn't a u-turn!
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    JackW said:

    nunu said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    The Neil interview tonight is a chance for her to tourniquet the wound. OTOH if she buckles the slump goes on.

    she should drop all this nanny state stuff and give us some real tory red meat. A tax cut now!
    The way the Conservative campaign is progressing it would be a tax cut for IRA paedophiles.
    Well as Corbyn says the IRA are brave. They deserve a tax cut......
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Nothing has changed May is loosing it .
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Monksfield said:

    MikeL said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    You know what? Screw it, I'm calling it, the u turn will damage the Tories more than the original proposal. Watch it unfold and if I'm wrong I'm losing money

    I don't think so.

    Most people don't follow politics remotely closely - they don't care about the political intrigue (eg what Crosby thinks) or ups and downs - all they care about is big picture.

    They were worried about social care plans - not that worry will have been eased.

    In terms of leader perception / personality, May is miles ahead of Corbyn and U-turn won't be enough to change that.
    Why would the worry have been eased? You're now voting for an unknown outcome. She hasn't ditched the policy, just said it will be modified but not how.
    Because most people aren't close to the detail.

    Big picture is there will be a cap - that's all people will care about.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    You couldn't make this stuff up:

    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/866673110887661568
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,408
    Chris said:

    Jason said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    The u turn was a huge mistake. She should have taken the hit and moved the headlines on

    You are confident she won't u-turn on the u-turn?

    "These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others".
    Shes awful on any level. So is Jezza. And Tim. It's a paucity of talent.
    She'll probably fall over the line with the help of Brexiteers but will look like an idiot for calling the election. On the other hand, maybe the electorate will say you know what? Screw this,. And vote for something odd.

    She'll win easily. And that's when her - and our - troubles will really begin.

    I don't think she will. I think the games up and it's gonna be a 2001 result - little change, but a collapse in confidence in her and Brussels planning an extra 50 billion bill.
    Looks like we have not one, but two characters from Dad's Army now - Corporal Jones (Sean T), and now Private Frazer.
    Wouldn't it be more fun to identify politicians as members of the Dad's Army cast?

    Theresa May as Sergeant Wilson, Nigel Farage as Private Walker, Tim Farron as the Verger (obviously) and so on? Still trying to figure out where Jeremy Corbyn fits in.
    Theresa is clearly Captain May-nwaring. As some have noticed:
    Hammond almost reminds me of Arthur le mesurier...

    https://www.thedailysatire.co.uk/single-post/2017/05/22/Day-32-33-Mums-Army-Tries-Not-to-Panic?

    I'd cast Corbyn as Godfrey.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    rottenborough said:

    You couldn't make this stuff up:

    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/866673110887661568

    That's a bit naughty. It actually says "accessible", not "alternative".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/866692802629054464
    https://twitter.com/SaraMurray/status/866674963972972545
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    edited May 2017
    I miss the good old days when a Tory PM screwing up a general election campaign was when they forgot which football team they support.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838
    nunu said:

    JackW said:

    nunu said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    The Neil interview tonight is a chance for her to tourniquet the wound. OTOH if she buckles the slump goes on.

    she should drop all this nanny state stuff and give us some real tory red meat. A tax cut now!
    The way the Conservative campaign is progressing it would be a tax cut for IRA paedophiles.
    Well as Corbyn says the IRA are brave. They deserve a tax cut......
    Except that wasn't what he said..
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838
    rkrkrk said:

    Chris said:

    Jason said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    The u turn was a huge mistake. She should have taken the hit and moved the headlines on

    You are confident she won't u-turn on the u-turn?

    "These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others".
    Shes awful on any level. So is Jezza. And Tim. It's a paucity of talent.
    She'll probably fall over the line with the help of Brexiteers but will look like an idiot for calling the election. On the other hand, maybe the electorate will say you know what? Screw this,. And vote for something odd.

    She'll win easily. And that's when her - and our - troubles will really begin.

    I don't think she will. I think the games up and it's gonna be a 2001 result - little change, but a collapse in confidence in her and Brussels planning an extra 50 billion bill.
    Looks like we have not one, but two characters from Dad's Army now - Corporal Jones (Sean T), and now Private Frazer.
    Wouldn't it be more fun to identify politicians as members of the Dad's Army cast?

    Theresa May as Sergeant Wilson, Nigel Farage as Private Walker, Tim Farron as the Verger (obviously) and so on? Still trying to figure out where Jeremy Corbyn fits in.
    Theresa is clearly Captain May-nwaring. As some have noticed:
    Hammond almost reminds me of Arthur le mesurier...

    https://www.thedailysatire.co.uk/single-post/2017/05/22/Day-32-33-Mums-Army-Tries-Not-to-Panic?

    I'd cast Corbyn as Godfrey.
    May is clearly Mainwaring... Incompetent and blustery..
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    Monksfield said:

    MikeL said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    You know what? Screw it, I'm calling it, the u turn will damage the Tories more than the original proposal. Watch it unfold and if I'm wrong I'm losing money

    I don't think so.

    Most people don't follow politics remotely closely - they don't care about the political intrigue (eg what Crosby thinks) or ups and downs - all they care about is big picture.

    They were worried about social care plans - not that worry will have been eased.

    In terms of leader perception / personality, May is miles ahead of Corbyn and U-turn won't be enough to change that.
    Why would the worry have been eased? You're now voting for an unknown outcome. She hasn't ditched the policy, just said it will be modified but not how.
    There will be a consultation, which will probably miraculously find that the cap needs to be £500K or some such figure which fits with the Treasury view.

    There will then be a huge row, a threat of a backbench rebellion and it will be scaled back to £250K.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    dixiedean said:

    nunu said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    The Neil interview tonight is a chance for her to tourniquet the wound. OTOH if she buckles the slump goes on.

    she should drop all this nanny state stuff and give us some real tory red meat. A tax cut now!
    She didn't rule out tax rises...so no luck there.
    ah but she didn't not not rule out tax cuts.....wait I've confused myself now.......
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited May 2017
    rottenborough said:

    You couldn't make this stuff up:

    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/866673110887661568

    I am going to guess for example versions for people with disabilities...This is a f##king Graudian journalist, if the Tories didn't do an ones for people who struggle to read small type etc they would be doing their nut about them being disabilist.

    I know where SeanT gets it from, they just go total bonkers sometimes.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Though I don't think the volatile polls will amount to much her modus operandi is a useful pointer to the pigs backside she's going to make of Brexit. The only future I can see for us is selling burkhas to the Saudis in car boot sales in Riyadh
  • Alice_AforethoughtAlice_Aforethought Posts: 772
    UKIP has the stupidest voters - official:

    ...the mainstream party whose voters had the highest mean IQ was the Liberal Democrats, then the Conservatives, then Labour, and finally, bringing up the rear, Ukip. So more than ten years ago, the Labour party’s voters were not as intelligent as the Tories’, although more intelligent than Ukip’s....low intelligence was more strongly correlated with voting Labour in 2015 than it was with voting Ukip. Of the four main parties, Labour definitely attracted the least intelligent voters that year.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/stupid-stupid-votes/#
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Chris said:

    rottenborough said:

    You couldn't make this stuff up:

    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/866673110887661568

    That's a bit naughty. It actually says "accessible", not "alternative".
    for the blind, large print or braille etc

    but go on right ahead with this....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I miss the good old days when a Tory PM screwing up a general election campaign was when they forgot which football team they support.

    I dunno, the bit where Gordon Brown had his head in his hands in despair as he tried to answer questions in a radio station studio just after he had called a voter a bigot was up there!
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited May 2017
    Nice to see that you're more relaxed SeanT.

    Remember, there is no way Labour can win with Corbyn in charge!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    Chris said:

    rottenborough said:

    You couldn't make this stuff up:

    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/866673110887661568

    That's a bit naughty. It actually says "accessible", not "alternative".
    Suspect it was changed, the tweet was from earlier.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I miss the good old days when a Tory PM screwing up a general election campaign was when they forgot which football team they support.

    I dunno, the bit where Gordon Brown had his head in his hands in despair as he tried to answer questions in a radio station studio just after he had called a voter a bigot was up there!
    Yes, the least May has not insulted any voter... yet :p
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    You couldn't make this stuff up:

    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/866673110887661568

    I am going to guess for example versions for people with disabilities...This is a f##king Graudian journalist, if the Tories didn't do an ones for people who struggle to read small type etc they would be doing their nut about them being disabilist.

    I know where SeanT gets it from, they just go total bonkers sometimes.
    At least someone being reasonable...

    https://twitter.com/Markfergusonuk/status/866678074863210496
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    I did tell you days ago that Gower was back in play. On these figures it reverts to Labour. Hope you got on at 6/1 like I did.
  • LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    LBC radio still hammering away at this chaos. Most callers still not happy. No minister's available for comment, which is not a good look. Theresa May needs some media training and should learn to relax more. She just rushes and stumbles over her words.

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Yorkcity said:

    Nothing has changed May is loosing it .

    May is even more right than she was before (and in no need of incontinence pads, as your charge of "loosing it" seems to imply).
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I miss the good old days when a Tory PM screwing up a general election campaign was when they forgot which football team they support.

    I dunno, the bit where Gordon Brown had his head in his hands in despair as he tried to answer questions in a radio station studio just after he had called a voter a bigot was up there!
    another of my avatars...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxJKU9mRIR8
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    GIN1138 said:

    https://twitter.com/spectator/status/866691227856535553

    A very good article that hits two separate nails on the head.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited May 2017
    Nice one Marf.
    I'm looking for a 'toon of Rattys leaving a sinking ship.
    Edit: But I'm not sure which ship it should be. I can think of at least three.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    Monksfield said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Chris said:

    Jason said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    The u turn was a huge mistake. She should have taken the hit and moved the headlines on

    You are confident she won't u-turn on the u-turn?

    "These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others".
    Shes awful on any level. So is Jezza. And Tim. It's a paucity of talent.
    She'll probably fall over the line with the help of Brexiteers but will look like an idiot for calling the election. On the other hand, maybe the electorate will say you know what? Screw this,. And vote for something odd.

    She'll win easily. And that's when her - and our - troubles will really begin.

    I don't think she will. I think the games up and it's gonna be a 2001 result - little change, but a collapse in confidence in her and Brussels planning an extra 50 billion bill.
    Looks like we have not one, but two characters from Dad's Army now - Corporal Jones (Sean T), and now Private Frazer.
    Wouldn't it be more fun to identify politicians as members of the Dad's Army cast?

    Theresa May as Sergeant Wilson, Nigel Farage as Private Walker, Tim Farron as the Verger (obviously) and so on? Still trying to figure out where Jeremy Corbyn fits in.
    Theresa is clearly Captain May-nwaring. As some have noticed:
    Hammond almost reminds me of Arthur le mesurier...

    https://www.thedailysatire.co.uk/single-post/2017/05/22/Day-32-33-Mums-Army-Tries-Not-to-Panic?

    I'd cast Corbyn as Godfrey.
    May is clearly Mainwaring... Incompetent and blustery..
    You may be right. In suggesting Wilson I'd seen her as grey and ineffectual.

    Private Godfrey perhaps= Boris Johnson thirty years on.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    You know what? Screw it, I'm calling it, the u turn will damage the Tories more than the original proposal. Watch it unfold and if I'm wrong I'm losing money

    Nah. She's taking the hit, it's deeply embarrassing, it will impact her personal ratings, but no one wants to vote for Corbyn. She's given the people an excuse to forgive her, and vote for her, even if they now think she is a "silly woman" (like my Mum does)

    But she certainly needs a flawless campaign from now on, and a relentless focus on Labour's ludicrous proposals and even more ludicrous leader.

    I expect the polls to steady, and, if there are no more gaffes, perhaps a slight drifting back from Labour's recent highs.

    She is still on a fairly remarkable 47 points with ICM. That would, I am sure, give her a three figure majority. If it did, we would soon forget Dementia Fuel Multifuck.
    SeanT What do you think the cap will be ? I imagine Crosby will tell her not to say tonight in the Andrew Neil interview .The ball will be kicked into the long grass never to be found again.
    I expect her to park the bus, and say There will be consultations, a Green Paper, perhaps she might go as far as to say We're looking at numbers (of a reassuring kind); I hope she will say We have listened, we know this frightens people, we want to make sure everyone can hand on as much of their home as possible...

    She'll need a form of words which gives the impression a total U-turn has been performed, without explicitly committing to absolute reversal. Wonder if Neil will let her get away with it...
    Just said on BBC 6 news Neil could not get an answer out of May on cap.Just further consultations.Must be prepared recorded this afternoon.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    You know what? Screw it, I'm calling it, the u turn will damage the Tories more than the original proposal. Watch it unfold and if I'm wrong I'm losing money

    Nah. She's taking the hit, it's deeply embarrassing, it will impact her personal ratings, but no one wants to vote for Corbyn. She's given the people an excuse to forgive her, and vote for her, even if they now think she is a "silly woman" (like my Mum does)

    But she certainly needs a flawless campaign from now on, and a relentless focus on Labour's ludicrous proposals and even more ludicrous leader.

    I expect the polls to steady, and, if there are no more gaffes, perhaps a slight drifting back from Labour's recent highs.

    She is still on a fairly remarkable 47 points with ICM. That would, I am sure, give her a three figure majority. If it did, we would soon forget Dementia Fuel Multifuck.
    SeanT What do you think the cap will be ? I imagine Crosby will tell her not to say tonight in the Andrew Neil interview .The ball will be kicked into the long grass never to be found again.
    I expect her to park the bus, and say There will be consultations, a Green Paper, perhaps she might go as far as to say We're looking at numbers (of a reassuring kind); I hope she will say We have listened, we know this frightens people, we want to make sure everyone can hand on as much of their home as possible...

    She'll need a form of words which gives the impression a total U-turn has been performed, without explicitly committing to absolute reversal. Wonder if Neil will let her get away with it...
    Just said on BBC 6 news Neil could not get an answer out of May on cap.Just further consultations.Must be prepared recorded this afternoon.
    The BBC will be editing it to make it as Tory friendly as possible with them having Laura and Neil on their payroll.... [predictive tweets]

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,528
    LadyBucket said:

    LBC radio still hammering away at this chaos. Most callers still not happy. No minister's available for comment, which is not a good look. Theresa May needs some media training and should learn to relax more. She just rushes and stumbles over her words.

    The lack of spokesperson is never a good look. Imagine people have other "pressing engagements", since they won't have any of the details, and the policy could change at any time. It is the drawback of a Presidential campaign.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    You know what? Screw it, I'm calling it, the u turn will damage the Tories more than the original proposal. Watch it unfold and if I'm wrong I'm losing money

    Nah. She's taking the hit, it's deeply embarrassing, it will impact her personal ratings, but no one wants to vote for Corbyn. She's given the people an excuse to forgive her, and vote for her, even if they now think she is a "silly woman" (like my Mum does)

    But she certainly needs a flawless campaign from now on, and a relentless focus on Labour's ludicrous proposals and even more ludicrous leader.

    I expect the polls to steady, and, if there are no more gaffes, perhaps a slight drifting back from Labour's recent highs.

    She is still on a fairly remarkable 47 points with ICM. That would, I am sure, give her a three figure majority. If it did, we would soon forget Dementia Fuel Multifuck.
    SeanT What do you think the cap will be ? I imagine Crosby will tell her not to say tonight in the Andrew Neil interview .The ball will be kicked into the long grass never to be found again.
    I expect her to park the bus, and say There will be consultations, a Green Paper, perhaps she might go as far as to say We're looking at numbers (of a reassuring kind); I hope she will say We have listened, we know this frightens people, we want to make sure everyone can hand on as much of their home as possible...

    She'll need a form of words which gives the impression a total U-turn has been performed, without explicitly committing to absolute reversal. Wonder if Neil will let her get away with it...
    Just said on BBC 6 news Neil could not get an answer out of May on cap.Just further consultations.Must be prepared recorded this afternoon.
    And it rolls on...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited May 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Nothing has changed May is loosing it .

    May is even more right than she was before (and in no need of incontinence pads, as your charge of "loosing it" seems to imply).
    That made me laugh!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    The Welsh numbers feed into my scepticism about YouGov. Wobbling about all over the place. Am much more inclined to take ICM seriously - they've been very consistent up until today, and the picture they present - of the Tories holding more-or-less stable whilst the anti-Tory vote coalesces around Labour - makes considerably more sense.

    Meanwhile, been watching the local news this evening. Anglia are doing a trip down the A10, stopping off at a different town each day to interview people about the election. Today they started off in Downham Market, a town in Norfolk quite a long way from London, which is neither particularly wealthy nor poor. The main subjects raised by the townsfolk were jobs and Brexit. Little sign of a rebellion over elderly care in a place where there aren't too many huge inheritances at stake.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838
    dixiedean said:

    LadyBucket said:

    LBC radio still hammering away at this chaos. Most callers still not happy. No minister's available for comment, which is not a good look. Theresa May needs some media training and should learn to relax more. She just rushes and stumbles over her words.

    The lack of spokesperson is never a good look. Imagine people have other "pressing engagements", since they won't have any of the details, and the policy could change at any time. It is the drawback of a Presidential campaign.
    Failing to appear on PM just enabled Humphreys to take the piss with some American infomercial on how to perform a U-turn.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    News coming in of 4 arrests at Lancs CC County Hall Preston including 2 former Chief Executives of the council and leading Conservative councillor Geoff Driver who was due to become Leader of The Council on Thursday . It is along ongoing police investigation but I am not au fait with all the background .
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    edited May 2017
    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    You know what? Screw it, I'm calling it, the u turn will damage the Tories more than the original proposal. Watch it unfold and if I'm wrong I'm losing money

    Nah. She's taking the hit, it's deeply embarrassing, it will impact her personal ratings, but no one wants to vote for Corbyn. She's given the people an excuse to forgive her, and vote for her, even if they now think she is a "silly woman" (like my Mum does)

    But she certainly needs a flawless campaign from now on, and a relentless focus on Labour's ludicrous proposals and even more ludicrous leader.

    I expect the polls to steady, and, if there are no more gaffes, perhaps a slight drifting back from Labour's recent highs.

    She is still on a fairly remarkable 47 points with ICM. That would, I am sure, give her a three figure majority. If it did, we would soon forget Dementia Fuel Multifuck.
    SeanT What do you think the cap will be ? I imagine Crosby will tell her not to say tonight in the Andrew Neil interview .The ball will be kicked into the long grass never to be found again.
    I expect her to park the bus, and say There will be consultations, a Green Paper, perhaps she might go as far as to say We're looking at numbers (of a reassuring kind); I hope she will say We have listened, we know this frightens people, we want to make sure everyone can hand on as much of their home as possible...

    She'll need a form of words which gives the impression a total U-turn has been performed, without explicitly committing to absolute reversal. Wonder if Neil will let her get away with it...
    Just said on BBC 6 news Neil could not get an answer out of May on cap.Just further consultations.Must be prepared recorded this afternoon.
    Some U turn!

    Heaven only knows the cap that was previously proposed was meaningless enough. Now we have only the promise that they will consider a cap that may turn out to be even more meaningless.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Black_Rook said:

    The Welsh numbers feed into my scepticism about YouGov. Wobbling about all over the place. Am much more inclined to take ICM seriously - they've been very consistent up until today, and the picture they present - of the Tories holding more-or-less stable whilst the anti-Tory vote coalesces around Labour - makes considerably more sense.

    Meanwhile, been watching the local news this evening. Anglia are doing a trip down the A10, stopping off at a different town each day to interview people about the election. Today they started off in Downham Market, a town in Norfolk quite a long way from London, which is neither particularly wealthy nor poor. The main subjects raised by the townsfolk were jobs and Brexit. Little sign of a rebellion over elderly care in a place where there aren't too many huge inheritances at stake.

    A "rogue poll" has always been one that a PB poster disagrees with!
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/866705432299098117
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    calum said:

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/866705432299098117

    That "Magic Money Forest" that Labour discovered to fund their manifesto pledges must have more trees in it than we thought....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    Scott_P said:

    @IanDunt: Jaws theme tune. https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/866638820472737793

    Not live

    Booo
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Yorkcity said:

    Time to send Michael Fallon out again with his back stabbing agenda.

    Congrats on FA trophy.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Disraeli said:

    calum said:

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/866705432299098117

    That "Magic Money Forest" that Labour discovered to fund their manifesto pledges must have more trees in it than we thought....
    Need to plant a few more !

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/general-election/kezia-dugdale-vote-labour-to-ditch-divisive-snp-and-tories-1-4453526
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    BBC London News leading with a lack of candidates from ethnic minorities standing in London.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    Disraeli said:

    calum said:

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/866705432299098117

    That "Magic Money Forest" that Labour discovered to fund their manifesto pledges must have more trees in it than we thought....
    And yet IFS found a £40bn black hole in Tories one

    How much has that increased by he supposed U Turn?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    IanB2 said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Pong said:

    Jeez.

    The conservative retired homeowners party haven't got a hope in hell of addressing intergenerational unfairness.

    The baby boomers will be protected from the costs of brexit.

    The young will pay.

    That is a heartrending post, Pong, and one with which I can only agree, with great sadness.

    Puts all this GE crap into perspective. Thanks.
    That is the one tragic thing. Public services desperately need proper funding, and there is sense in trying to tap into some of the windfall wealth of older property owners. To their credit the LibDems were the first to explore this with their Mansion Tax, Labour had a brave attempt with its estate levy - both savagely and cynically attacked by the Tories, of course - and now even the Tories are prepared to look at it. Inter-generational unfairness will be impossible to deliver if everything has to be paid for by the working age population, or the cost shunted off into the future.

    Yes, the Tories have made a complete hash of handling the issue from start to finish (or middle, which is probably where we are). But let's not lose sight of the bigger picture.

    It's a perfect example of why our political system is too short term and adversarial to tackle the big issues in any sort of sensible way.
    It's deeply frustrating.

    There are good people in all parties (possibly barring UKIP!) who get it - and I think TM is one of them. As we've seen today, she just can't stand up to the pressure.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    bigjohnowls said:

    Disraeli said:

    calum said:

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/866705432299098117

    That "Magic Money Forest" that Labour discovered to fund their manifesto pledges must have more trees in it than we thought....
    And yet IFS found a £40bn black hole in Tories one

    How much has that increased by he supposed U Turn?
    IFS analysis due out tomorrow.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    tlg86 said:

    BBC London News leading with a lack of candidates from ethnic minorities standing in London.

    Lib dems want to maintain their record?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838
    Disraeli said:

    calum said:

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/866705432299098117

    That "Magic Money Forest" that Labour discovered to fund their manifesto pledges must have more trees in it than we thought....
    When you can grow your own trees, you can have a magic money forest, I guess....

    But keep these promises up and the grey vote might just decamp, then god only knows what happens.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    tlg86 said:

    BBC London News leading with a lack of candidates from ethnic minorities standing in London.

    Yawn.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    valleyboy said:

    I did tell you days ago that Gower was back in play. On these figures it reverts to Labour. Hope you got on at 6/1 like I did.

    Fair play on that one. I'm on the other side but Rhondda and Yns Mons even better Lab bets in my opinion.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    valleyboy said:

    I did tell you days ago that Gower was back in play. On these figures it reverts to Labour. Hope you got on at 6/1 like I did.

    Fair play on that one. I'm on the other side but Rhondda and Yns Mons even better Lab bets in my opinion.
    Cardiff North is where it's at IMO.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    https://twitter.com/davidclewis/status/866700286898974720
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    The YouGov Wales poll has 7% of the 2015 Tory vote going over to Labour. Compared to 5% of the 2015 Lab vote going the other way.

    Labour also getting a respectable 29% of the Welsh Leave vote (as well as 57% of the Remain vote).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,242
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Still think is the story of the day

    https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/866684809741037573

    Just remember in 2015 that sources close to Sir Lynton NEVER EVER complained about Dave or the campaign.

    So that's a yuuuuge intervention.

    Hugely unprofessional.
This discussion has been closed.