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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview May 18th 2017 (T-21 days until Elect

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  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,327
    Got to go out now, so TV off. Not sure who won, but feel the losers are the two who didn't show up.

    Nite all.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,195
    DavidL said:

    I do think May and Corbyn should have taken part in debates. Its disappointing that someone who aspires to rule our country doesn't think she can defend the policies she intends to pursue from the level of challenge such a debate throws up. I can understand the tactics but its really not right.

    If you're going to have debates they should be between those who can reasonably considered to have a chance of being PM. The rest are just a complete waste of time.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,768
    edited May 2017
    IanB2 said:

    Not for the first time, I am impressed by Leanne Wood. She could get a transfer to one of the Premier League sides, couldn't she?

    Living west of Offa's Dyke I get subjected to Leanne Wood far too much on the news. Borrowing a great phrase from our more northerly Celtic cousins, she's as thick as mince.

    Surely you could just join the rest of us and enjoy her wonderful accent?
    Doesn't do it for me, either. Bit like an excessively oversweetened drink.

    But nowhere near as irritating as Farron.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,205
    Lol, every time May gets mentioned the moderator intervenes.
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    As a point of principal I will not pay for a TV licence* But I don't like bracing rules so don't have a TV. this is my chose I don't what to miss all the TV, but I understand it is a consequence of being consistent with my choses. normally its not that big a sacrifice, I can watch most things on YouTube or similar. but I don't think I can legally watch the debates, at least not live! I have the technical ability, I.e. a computer and a fast enough connection and its an ITV program so no input form the BBC, so why am I bared from legally watching it.


    * The license fee is forced speech which is the start of the end of free speech
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,948
    Roger said:

    tlg86 said:

    This is like the opposition debate in 2015. The only winner will be the Tories.

    tlg86 said:

    This is like the opposition debate in 2015. The only winner will be the Tories.

    The biggest loser will be Corbyn. He needed this debate more than anyone and it would have had the benefit of isolating May. He's being very badly advised
    He seems to be doing alright in the campaign so far (albeit against catastrophic expectations), although I agree he should have done it.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,971

    DavidL said:

    Not for the first time, I am impressed by Leanne Wood. She could get a transfer to one of the Premier League sides, couldn't she?

    Last time around she talked complete rubbish but in one of the most pleasant accents I have ever heard. Quite forgave the content.
    The only moment I can remember from that debate is when she turned to Nigel Farage and said with an apparently genuine sense of perplexity 'Nigel, you talk as if immigration control were the solution to everything.' You could almost see him deflate like a punctured balloon.
    Lucas just said it to Nuttall.. but the problem with that line is that immigration controls are the solution to most of our problems, or more to the point, the lack of them in the past, is the cause of all most our problems
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Given up on the debate now. Farron is really irritating especially with the "my grandfather" shtick

    Is he channelling Andrea Leadsom on the whole family thing?

    "Speaking as a grandson..."

    Also, question: did nobody at ITV think to invite any of the Northern Irish parties? They've surely as much right to turn up to the snorefest as Sturgeon and Wood, and the DUP have more Parliamentary seats than three of the five leaders present put together.
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    DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    Roger said:

    It's succeeded in making Corbyn and May's decision look rather shallow. The contrast between the five remaining leaders is very sharp. I'm now going to vote Green. The two Macbeths is a very good analogy. Corbyn a semi tragic hero and May an ambitious ruthless woman in the single minded pursuit of power
    No! Roger! Stick with Labour (your spiritual home). :anguished:
    Please don't vote for that awful Lucas person!
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    I don't really understand why individuals not aspiring to be represented in Parliament should be prominent at all. I think it is one of the underlying problems that non-Scottish voters have with the suggestion of the SNP having influence in Govt - that the individual calling the shots would be somebody not in Parliament.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966
    Could this debate hurt the Tories in Scotland ?
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,205
    Roger said:

    tlg86 said:

    This is like the opposition debate in 2015. The only winner will be the Tories.

    tlg86 said:

    This is like the opposition debate in 2015. The only winner will be the Tories.

    The biggest loser will be Corbyn. He needed this debate more than anyone and it would have had the benefit of isolating May. He's being very badly advised
    Quite, if he'd got involved he would have been unlikely to do himself too much damage and it would have made Dear Leader look like she was hiding.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    What's the likely audience size for this debate?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,195
    Pulpstar said:

    Could this debate hurt the Tories in Scotland ?

    Have they talked about independence yet?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    MikeL said:

    It's astonishing really that:

    The LDs and SNP want to get rid of the freeze on benefits

    Whereas Labour isn't proposing to do so.

    Can only assume they completely forgot the issue.

    Another one for Andrew Neil's Corbyn interview notebook.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,205
    DavidL said:

    I do think May and Corbyn should have taken part in debates. Its disappointing that someone who aspires to rule our country doesn't think she can defend the policies she intends to pursue from the level of challenge such a debate throws up. I can understand the tactics but its really not right.

    Hear hear.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,676
    welshowl said:

    What's the likely audience size for this debate?

    I think we are all posting here...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,948

    Given up on the debate now. Farron is really irritating especially with the "my grandfather" shtick

    Is he channelling Andrea Leadsom on the whole family thing?

    "Speaking as a grandson..."

    Also, question: did nobody at ITV think to invite any of the Northern Irish parties? They've surely as much right to turn up to the snorefest as Sturgeon and Wood, and the DUP have more Parliamentary seats than three of the five leaders present put together.
    I assume its on the basis that the NI parties are not competing against any of the others who were invited, outside of a few NI Conservative candidates and possibly some Greens(?), so there's no point including any of them in a debate except against each other.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT - that truly is terrific snobbery by Hugh Grant.

    Being disliked by Hugh Grant will be a massive plus for May. People don't like posh boys much any more...
    I'm shocked to learn that Hugh Grant read English Literature at New College, Oxford.

    Don't you lot have standards over there?
    Cambridge admitted Neil Hamilton. End. Of. Argument.
    I see your Neil Hamilton and raise you a Jeffrey Archer.
    Jeffrey Archer's cv is an elaborate version of the Chronicles of Narnia.
    Ok, I raise you Reverend Underpants, Chris Bryant.
    I went to a real university, but can I point out that Cambridge also gave a doctorate to Tristram 'I'm too thick to use Google' Hunt?

    To give you some idea of his personal and professional standing, the Universities and Colleges Union is informally called the Useless Tristrams Union by its members (after he ignored their picket lines to lecture on Marxism).
    Feck, Tristram didn’t just get a Ph D at Cambridge.

    He was a Fellow in History at King’s College. He was able to teach and research without knowing how to use Google.
    I didn't know that! I thought he went straight to QMUL.

    So there was a time when they had a truly massive historical organ, plus a large musical instrument in the chapel?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Could this debate hurt the Tories in Scotland ?

    Have they talked about independence yet?
    Not really.Lack of Corbyn means she doesn't need to differentiate
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,360
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    I do think May and Corbyn should have taken part in debates. Its disappointing that someone who aspires to rule our country doesn't think she can defend the policies she intends to pursue from the level of challenge such a debate throws up. I can understand the tactics but its really not right.

    If you're going to have debates they should be between those who can reasonably considered to have a chance of being PM. The rest are just a complete waste of time.
    Agreed. And in the US the candidates really have to turn up no matter how far they are ahead in the polls. It should be the same here. She is getting off too lightly with this.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    welshowl said:

    What's the likely audience size for this debate?

    I think we are all posting here...
    -1! I'm watching Masterchef final on the Skybox.
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    RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Sturgeon is head and shoulders above the others. Which helps May and Corbyn - most people tempted to switch from the two main parties by the programme will realise they can't vote for the "winner" of this debate and stay where they are. Notwithstanding 3/4 of the programme's audience are currently watching whilst commenting on PB.

    This programme will have practically zero impact upon VI. The losers (if there are any) are Nuttal and Farron.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,948

    Sturgeon is head and shoulders above the others. Which helps May and Corbyn - most people tempted to switch from the two main parties by the programme will realise they can't vote for the "winner" of this debate and stay where they are. Notwithstanding 3/4 of the programme's audience are currently watching whilst commenting on PB.

    This programme will have practically zero impact upon VI. The losers (if there are any) are Nuttal and Farron.

    Not sure either can go much farther backwards, but then the LDs keep forcing us to question how little progress they can make time and again.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    tlg86 said:

    This is like the opposition debate in 2015. The only winner will be the Tories.

    tlg86 said:

    This is like the opposition debate in 2015. The only winner will be the Tories.

    The biggest loser will be Corbyn. He needed this debate more than anyone and it would have had the benefit of isolating May. He's being very badly advised
    He seems to be doing alright in the campaign so far (albeit against catastrophic expectations), although I agree he should have done it.
    I'm not sure. If Labour's improvement in the polls is actually genuine I think it is really the result of polarisation in the electorate and the need for anti-Tories to coalesce around a single point of opposition. As long as the Tories stay in the stratosphere it will have little practical effect, but it will help protect his position post election. As such he has far more to lose from participation in a debate like this. Don't forget Cameron ducked a leaders debate last time, and it didn't do him much harm.

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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,676
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    I do think May and Corbyn should have taken part in debates. Its disappointing that someone who aspires to rule our country doesn't think she can defend the policies she intends to pursue from the level of challenge such a debate throws up. I can understand the tactics but its really not right.

    If you're going to have debates they should be between those who can reasonably considered to have a chance of being PM. The rest are just a complete waste of time.
    Agreed. And in the US the candidates really have to turn up no matter how far they are ahead in the polls. It should be the same here. She is getting off too lightly with this.
    They could have trained a parrot to say 'Strong and Stable' and perched it on one of the podiums.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,948
    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    tlg86 said:

    This is like the opposition debate in 2015. The only winner will be the Tories.

    tlg86 said:

    This is like the opposition debate in 2015. The only winner will be the Tories.

    The biggest loser will be Corbyn. He needed this debate more than anyone and it would have had the benefit of isolating May. He's being very badly advised
    He seems to be doing alright in the campaign so far (albeit against catastrophic expectations), although I agree he should have done it.
    I'm not sure. If Labour's improvement in the polls is actually genuine I think it is really the result of polarisation in the electorate and the need for anti-Tories to coalesce around a single point of opposition. As long as the Tories stay in the stratosphere it will have little practical effect, but it will help protect his position post election. As such he has far more to lose from participation in a debate like this. Don't forget Cameron ducked a leaders debate last time, and it didn't do him much harm.

    I think it is worth doing irrespective on whether they can duck out without harming themselves though.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    I think you are ok with that bet on 2.5+ goals in the Spurs "footballing lesson" match
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    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    any more polls out later ?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,195
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Could this debate hurt the Tories in Scotland ?

    Have they talked about independence yet?
    Not really.Lack of Corbyn means she doesn't need to differentiate
    I think the Welsh woman and Sturgeon will be helping May in England.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,676
    Farron mentions that he is a father of 4 for the second time.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    In order

    1. Caroline Lucas (by a whisker)
    2. Nicola Sturgeon
    3. Leanne Wood
    4. Tim Farron (big mistake to keep talking about himself)
    5. Paul Nuttall (last by a distance)

    (Audience reaction well worth listening to)

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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2017
    Bit surprised Farron is STILL putting all his eggs in the "Remain/Single Market" basket.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,195

    I think you are ok with that bet on 2.5+ goals in the Spurs "footballing lesson" match

    This really has been a disastrous week for me in fantasy football.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Hoorar for Bad Al getting more and more ill-tempered

    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/865299262938247168
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Father of four! Father of four!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966
    Nicolas acknowledges "challenges" in Scottish education
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    I've spent the last few hours greening out my substantial Con seats position.

    Just after the election was announced, I went;

    350-399 = -£££££££££
    400-449 = +££££££££££££

    Now;

    0-650 = +£££

    I'm basically positionless right now.

    Other than in individual seat bets, there must be some value somewhere, right?
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Farron and Wood are pretty much polar-opposites when it comes to speed of their speech.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927

    Hoorar for Bad Al getting more and more ill-tempered

    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/865299262938247168

    Hey, Bad Al, where's your man from the red team tonight?
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    tlg86 said:

    I think you are ok with that bet on 2.5+ goals in the Spurs "footballing lesson" match

    This really has been a disastrous week for me in fantasy football.
    I'm having a Spurs 2016 end of season collapse too...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DanielHewittITV: Paul Nuttall has called two of the three women on the panel Natalie. None of them are called Natalie. #itvleadersdebate
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966
    edited May 2017

    Father of four! Father of four!

    He's getting tonked by Lucas
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JamieRoss7: "I believe in academic selection," says Paul Nuttall who, remember, has tonight failed to memorise four names.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,971
    Sturgeon: Nothing is more important to me than education

    https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/a3ba0f99-e0ff-44af-ac7c-0c2fbfb61db3
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    DavidL said:

    I do think May and Corbyn should have taken part in debates. Its disappointing that someone who aspires to rule our country doesn't think she can defend the policies she intends to pursue from the level of challenge such a debate throws up. I can understand the tactics but its really not right.

    Hear hear.
    Yep, I agree with DavidL too.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556

    tlg86 said:

    I think you are ok with that bet on 2.5+ goals in the Spurs "footballing lesson" match

    This really has been a disastrous week for me in fantasy football.
    I'm having a Spurs 2016 end of season collapse too...
    Same here.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,676
    If the Nutty Boy hadn't turned up there wouldn't be a debate. Every issue has been 4 v 1.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,195
    Leanne Wood doesn't like grammar schools because "then you have winners and losers."

    Not like tonight's debate when all five are losers.
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    blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Hi all - very long term lurker here who's finally been prompted to sign up by this election. The manifesto seems not to have been a total car crash, but prodding your core vote with three weeks to go seems a bit unnecessary. The thing that gets me is the wasted opportunity to do something really spectacular, e.g. actually providing £350 million a week extra for the NHS, two-thirds of could be achieved by scrapping foreign aid. Result: catnip for Kippers, Labour voters, and Mr. and Mrs. Joe Average alike. Sigh.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,299
    welshowl said:

    What's the likely audience size for this debate?

    Approx 2m.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,768
    Danny565 said:

    Bit surprised Farron is STILL putting all his eggs in the "Remain/Single Market" basket.

    I'm not; he's clueless.
    Which given what might have been possible for his party in this election is something of a tragedy.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2017
    I would agree that none of them are doing particularly well here, except Nicola Sturgeon (and even she is not really saying much about "standing up for Scotland" specifically, so not sure how much electoral benefit even she'll get from this). I thought Caroline Lucas might be quite good, but her debating points have been a bit unfocussed.

    May and Corbyn dodged a bullet here, don't see any of these 5 having done anything to take some support.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,236
    Pulpstar said:

    Could this debate hurt the Tories in Scotland ?

    Ruth will be bielin, left out of the Sun Politics spoof and not even made the runners-up debate.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    Pulpstar said:

    Father of four! Father of four!

    He's getting tonked by Lucas
    There is a mental image I could quite happily have done without.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,676
    blueblue said:

    Hi all - very long term lurker here who's finally been prompted to sign up by this election. The manifesto seems not to have been a total car crash, but prodding your core vote with three weeks to go seems a bit unnecessary. The thing that gets me is the wasted opportunity to do something really spectacular, e.g. actually providing £350 million a week extra for the NHS, two-thirds of could be achieved by scrapping foreign aid. Result: catnip for Kippers, Labour voters, and Mr. and Mrs. Joe Average alike. Sigh.

    Welcome! Good that you're here as Tories are terribly under-represented on PB.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,195
    LOL! Tim Farron explaining why the universal free school meals policy was so stupid to begin with.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    MikeL said:

    welshowl said:

    What's the likely audience size for this debate?

    Approx 2m.
    Thanks
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,948
    Nigelb said:

    Danny565 said:

    Bit surprised Farron is STILL putting all his eggs in the "Remain/Single Market" basket.

    I'm not; he's clueless.
    Which given what might have been possible for his party in this election is something of a tragedy.
    Remember when some thought they might get north of 20? Ok, those were over optimistic, but close to it seemed possible at least, if not likely.
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    blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    blueblue said:

    Hi all - very long term lurker here who's finally been prompted to sign up by this election. The manifesto seems not to have been a total car crash, but prodding your core vote with three weeks to go seems a bit unnecessary. The thing that gets me is the wasted opportunity to do something really spectacular, e.g. actually providing £350 million a week extra for the NHS, two-thirds of could be achieved by scrapping foreign aid. Result: catnip for Kippers, Labour voters, and Mr. and Mrs. Joe Average alike. Sigh.

    Welcome! Good that you're here as Tories are terribly under-represented on PB.
    But I also bump up the Isn't-Varoufakis-dashing-for-a-crazy-Marxist demographic, so I've got cross-party appeal.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited May 2017
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT - that truly is terrific snobbery by Hugh Grant.

    Being disliked by Hugh Grant will be a massive plus for May. People don't like posh boys much any more...
    I'm shocked to learn that Hugh Grant read English Literature at New College, Oxford.

    Don't you lot have standards over there?
    Cambridge admitted Neil Hamilton. End. Of. Argument.
    I see your Neil Hamilton and raise you a Jeffrey Archer.
    Jeffrey Archer's cv is an elaborate version of the Chronicles of Narnia.
    Ok, I raise you Reverend Underpants, Chris Bryant.
    I went to a real university, but can I point out that Cambridge also gave a doctorate to Tristram 'I'm too thick to use Google' Hunt?

    To give you some idea of his personal and professional standing, the Universities and Colleges Union is informally called the Useless Tristrams Union by its members (after he ignored their picket lines to lecture on Marxism).
    Feck, Tristram didn’t just get a Ph D at Cambridge.

    He was a Fellow in History at King’s College. He was able to teach and research without knowing how to use Google.
    I didn't know that! I thought he went straight to QMUL.

    So there was a time when they had a truly massive historical organ, plus a large musical instrument in the chapel?
    Fraid so.

    The timeline is:

    Independent School (SeanT’s if I recall right) --> Trinity College --> JRF at Kings College --> Lecturer at QMUL --> People’s Party MP at Stoke-on-Trent --> Director of the V&A.

    Living proof that in the UK, the son of a humble Labour peer can make good.

    He is certainly someone who has benefitted hugely from Brexit. The vacancy at the V&A only arose because Martin Roth went back to Germany, after Brexit.

    So, he didn’t help his constituents much in Brexit Central, Stoke-on-Trent, but his constituents helped him enormously by opening up his next career jump.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    DavidL said:

    Got a leaflet from my Labour candidate today. "I am standing in Dundee West because I believe in Jeremy Corbyn and as a trade unionist I share his vision."

    Finishes with another reference to Corbyn too. Not a mention of Kezia anywhere. Curious.

    We received our first leaflet today - from the Greens. I expected to be bombarded with Tory litter and nothing from anyone else.
    Current score in EN&L is Tories 2 - 0 Everyone Else.

    Labour and SNP outleafletted the Tories for the local elections, but then they will have had longer to plan that campaign. Today's effort from the Tories was a multi-page affair. No expense spared.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966
    MikeL said:

    welshowl said:

    What's the likely audience size for this debate?

    Approx 2m.
    All of them on the left.

    No Brexiteers will bother.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    I do think May and Corbyn should have taken part in debates. Its disappointing that someone who aspires to rule our country doesn't think she can defend the policies she intends to pursue from the level of challenge such a debate throws up. I can understand the tactics but its really not right.

    If you're going to have debates they should be between those who can reasonably considered to have a chance of being PM. The rest are just a complete waste of time.
    Agreed. And in the US the candidates really have to turn up no matter how far they are ahead in the polls. It should be the same here. She is getting off too lightly with this.
    They could have trained a parrot to say 'Strong and Stable' and perched it on one of the podiums.
    :lol:
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Spurs are killing me in the FF.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT - that truly is terrific snobbery by Hugh Grant.

    Being disliked by Hugh Grant will be a massive plus for May. People don't like posh boys much any more...
    I'm shocked to learn that Hugh Grant read English Literature at New College, Oxford.

    Don't you lot have standards over there?
    Cambridge admitted Neil Hamilton. End. Of. Argument.
    I see your Neil Hamilton and raise you a Jeffrey Archer.
    Jeffrey Archer's cv is an elaborate version of the Chronicles of Narnia.
    Ok, I raise you Reverend Underpants, Chris Bryant.
    I went to a real university, but can I point out that Cambridge also gave a doctorate to Tristram 'I'm too thick to use Google' Hunt?

    To give you some idea of his personal and professional standing, the Universities and Colleges Union is informally called the Useless Tristrams Union by its members (after he ignored their picket lines to lecture on Marxism).
    Feck, Tristram didn’t just get a Ph D at Cambridge.

    He was a Fellow in History at King’s College. He was able to teach and research without knowing how to use Google.
    I didn't know that! I thought he went straight to QMUL.

    So there was a time when they had a truly massive historical organ, plus a large musical instrument in the chapel?
    Fraid so.

    The timeline is:

    Independent School (SeanT’s if I recall right) --> Trinity College --> JRF at Kings College --> Lecturer at QMUL --> People’s Party MP at Stoke-on-Trent --> Director of the V&A.

    Living proof that in the UK, the son of a humble Labour peer can make good.

    He is certainly someone who has benefitted from hugely Brexit. The vacancy at the V&A only arose because Martin Roth went back to Germany, after Brexit.

    So, he didn’t help his constituents much in Stoke-on-Trent, but his constituents helped him enormously by opening up his next career jump.
    You could of course have added the TV documentaries on the Civil War, which were of course because he's a world renowned expert in the history of urban planning in the nineteenth century and therefore especially good on the events of the seventeenth cen..ah, hold on.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966

    DavidL said:

    Got a leaflet from my Labour candidate today. "I am standing in Dundee West because I believe in Jeremy Corbyn and as a trade unionist I share his vision."

    Finishes with another reference to Corbyn too. Not a mention of Kezia anywhere. Curious.

    We received our first leaflet today - from the Greens. I expected to be bombarded with Tory litter and nothing from anyone else.
    Current score in EN&L is Tories 2 - 0 Everyone Else.

    Labour and SNP outleafletted the Tories for the local elections, but then they will have had longer to plan that campaign. Today's effort from the Tories was a multi-page affair. No expense spared.
    Two Nil in Derbyshire North East to the Tories too
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,676
    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    Hi all - very long term lurker here who's finally been prompted to sign up by this election. The manifesto seems not to have been a total car crash, but prodding your core vote with three weeks to go seems a bit unnecessary. The thing that gets me is the wasted opportunity to do something really spectacular, e.g. actually providing £350 million a week extra for the NHS, two-thirds of could be achieved by scrapping foreign aid. Result: catnip for Kippers, Labour voters, and Mr. and Mrs. Joe Average alike. Sigh.

    Welcome! Good that you're here as Tories are terribly under-represented on PB.
    But I also bump up the Isn't-Varoufakis-dashing-for-a-crazy-Marxist demographic, so I've got cross-party appeal.
    Any fan of Varoufakis is definitely an asset to the site!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    FFS

    I was going to pick Kane as triple captain this week, instead I picked Diego Costa.

    Greatest blunder since the Empire of Japan attacked the American Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor to keep the Americans OUT of the war.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    edited May 2017

    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    Hi all - very long term lurker here who's finally been prompted to sign up by this election. The manifesto seems not to have been a total car crash, but prodding your core vote with three weeks to go seems a bit unnecessary. The thing that gets me is the wasted opportunity to do something really spectacular, e.g. actually providing £350 million a week extra for the NHS, two-thirds of could be achieved by scrapping foreign aid. Result: catnip for Kippers, Labour voters, and Mr. and Mrs. Joe Average alike. Sigh.

    Welcome! Good that you're here as Tories are terribly under-represented on PB.
    But I also bump up the Isn't-Varoufakis-dashing-for-a-crazy-Marxist demographic, so I've got cross-party appeal.
    Any fan of Varoufakis is definitely an asset to the site!
    I've always rather liked Varafoukis. Even though I don't agree with his politics, any enemy of that utter prat Juncker has to have something in his favour.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT - that truly is terrific snobbery by Hugh Grant.

    Being disliked by Hugh Grant will be a massive plus for May. People don't like posh boys much any more...
    I'm shocked to learn that Hugh Grant read English Literature at New College, Oxford.

    Don't you lot have standards over there?
    Cambridge admitted Neil Hamilton. End. Of. Argument.
    I see your Neil Hamilton and raise you a Jeffrey Archer.
    Jeffrey Archer's cv is an elaborate version of the Chronicles of Narnia.
    Ok, I raise you Reverend Underpants, Chris Bryant.
    I went to a real university, but can I point out that Cambridge also gave a doctorate to Tristram 'I'm too thick to use Google' Hunt?

    To give you some idea of his personal and professional standing, the Universities and Colleges Union is informally called the Useless Tristrams Union by its members (after he ignored their picket lines to lecture on Marxism).
    Feck, Tristram didn’t just get a Ph D at Cambridge.

    He was a Fellow in History at King’s College. He was able to teach and research without knowing how to use Google.
    I didn't know that! I thought he went straight to QMUL.

    So there was a time when they had a truly massive historical organ, plus a large musical instrument in the chapel?
    Fraid so.

    The timeline is:

    Independent School (SeanT’s if I recall right) --> Trinity College --> JRF at Kings College --> Lecturer at QMUL --> People’s Party MP at Stoke-on-Trent --> Director of the V&A.

    Living proof that in the UK, the son of a humble Labour peer can make good.

    He is certainly someone who has benefitted from hugely Brexit. The vacancy at the V&A only arose because Martin Roth went back to Germany, after Brexit.

    So, he didn’t help his constituents much in Stoke-on-Trent, but his constituents helped him enormously by opening up his next career jump.
    You could of course have added the TV documentaries on the Civil War, which were of course because he's a world renowned expert in the history of urban planning in the nineteenth century and therefore especially good on the events of the seventeenth cen..ah, hold on.
    Well, I missed them, but I recall a TV documentary on Isaac Newton, a subject he knows feck-all about.
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Pong said:

    I've spent the last few hours greening out my substantial Con seats position.

    Just after the election was announced, I went;

    350-399 = -£££££££££
    400-449 = +££££££££££££

    Now;

    0-650 = +£££

    I'm basically positionless right now.

    Other than in individual seat bets, there must be some value somewhere, right?

    Labour are still almost 2/1 on Betfair to get 30-35% of the vote. If their polling stays at 30-31%, and especially if it keeps growing, this should be a good trading bet or just a keeper.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Danny565 said:

    Bit surprised Farron is STILL putting all his eggs in the "Remain/Single Market" basket.

    It's all he's got.

    Meanwhile, on the Conservative Twitter feed...

    Corbyn is crap
    Corbyn's coalition of chaos
    Corbyn will bring a crappy coalition of crappy chaos
    Nicola: get on with the day job!
    Nicola and Jeremy's coalition of chaos
    Corbyn's coalition of chaos
    Corbyn's coalition of chaos
    Corbyn doesn't know what he's doing
    Tim would join Corbyn's coalition of chaos
    Caroline would join Corbyn's coalition of chaos
    Tim, Nicola and Jeremy would create a coalition of chaos
    Nicola: get on with the day job!
    Corbyn is crap
    Corbyn's coalition of chaos

    No interest in Natalie or Paul whatsoever. Poor Natalie. Poor Paul.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966
    Hard work being put into cov nw and s by the blues too I can confirm
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    DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    Welcome @blueblue!
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,768
    isam said:

    Sturgeon: Nothing is more important to me than education

    https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/a3ba0f99-e0ff-44af-ac7c-0c2fbfb61db3

    Taking a sabbatical to go back to university then ?

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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059

    FFS

    I was going to pick Kane as triple captain this week, instead I picked Diego Costa.

    Greatest blunder since the Empire of Japan attacked the American Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor to keep the Americans OUT of the war.

    I blame Southam. Convinced us Spurs were going to be spursy.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Oh fwxk off - 4 goals.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2017
    Leaflet report from Norwich South, 2 labour one green, no others.
    One labour canvassers visit
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334

    Well, I missed them, but I recall a TV documentary on Isaac Newton, a subject he knows feck-all about.

    If anything he's even worse on his supposed area of expertise. I always winced on the numerous occasions he talked of his great political hero being Joseph Chamberlain for his gas and water socialism in Birmingham - apparently unaware that Chamberlain's last role in politics after an extraodinary double defection was as acting leader of the Conservative party!

    Shouldn't have been that hard to work out given both his sons went on to lead it as well.
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    blueblue said:

    Hi all - very long term lurker here who's finally been prompted to sign up by this election. The manifesto seems not to have been a total car crash, but prodding your core vote with three weeks to go seems a bit unnecessary. The thing that gets me is the wasted opportunity to do something really spectacular, e.g. actually providing £350 million a week extra for the NHS, two-thirds of could be achieved by scrapping foreign aid. Result: catnip for Kippers, Labour voters, and Mr. and Mrs. Joe Average alike. Sigh.

    Hello BlueBlue, and welcome :)

    It would be wrong to say that the 350 was promised to the NHS, but considering it was widely expected, announcing it would go to the NHS would have been very popular and to some extent healed the divisions of the referendum.

    In actual fact 350 a week is only about 3 years inflation increase anyway. not that it would make much defence on its own, The risk is that it would just be wasted, but it would possibly give the Tories metaphoric permission to make some 'market forces' reforms that could over the long term have let to big efficiency improvements.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Leaflet report from Norwich South, 2 labour one green, no others.

    Cardiff Central: 2 Lib Dems. Zero others. Zero canvass from anyone. Posters (few) just left over from council elections.
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    Farron mentions that he is a father of 4 for the second time.

    At least he got the same number each time. That would have been awkward...
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    macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    Are any of these clowns in touch with reality at all, teachers are great give them more money fantastic. Yet the fact is that 35% of kids fail at 16 to reach the less than onerous 5 GCSE's. Something slightly hidden there.

    Timmy looking tough with his bit of bum fluff hovering above his top lip.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966
    Ukip to scrap tuition fees :o
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    edited May 2017
    macisback said:

    Are any of these clowns in touch with reality at all, teachers are great give them more money fantastic. Yet the fact is that 35% of kids fail at 16 to reach the less than onerous 5 GCSE's. Something slightly hidden there.

    Timmy looking tough with his bit of bum fluff hovering above his top lip.

    With the changes to maths expect that figure to plummet this year.

    The first sentence is naturally a plain statement of fact and may not be questioned :wink:
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Does the IpsosMORI poll include Wales? Looking at the data tables, they don't have Wales as a section in the regional breakdown, and out of the 1000 people they spoke to, 2 people said they would vote PC. Looks odd.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    OUT said:

    Are we due more goals at Leicester? Need one more for an over 2.5 treble.

    Feck Kane is my vice captain rather than captain.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,676
    More from Farron's autobiography...
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    blueblue said:

    Hi all - very long term lurker here who's finally been prompted to sign up by this election. The manifesto seems not to have been a total car crash, but prodding your core vote with three weeks to go seems a bit unnecessary. The thing that gets me is the wasted opportunity to do something really spectacular, e.g. actually providing £350 million a week extra for the NHS, two-thirds of could be achieved by scrapping foreign aid. Result: catnip for Kippers, Labour voters, and Mr. and Mrs. Joe Average alike. Sigh.

    Welcome.

    The '£350m' is going into a UK Shared Prosperity Fund. Foreign aid is being 'redefined'.

    There are three weeks to go so some of these themes will presumably develop and be pushed centre stage as we go on. The potentially unpopular bits seem to be getting their airing three weeks out while Corbyn shoots his load.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556

    FFS

    I was going to pick Kane as triple captain this week, instead I picked Diego Costa.

    Greatest blunder since the Empire of Japan attacked the American Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor to keep the Americans OUT of the war.

    I blame Southam. Convinced us Spurs were going to be spursy.
    At least I did place a bet on him on the start of the season to be top goal scorer.

    I think.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,195
    Pulpstar said:

    Ukip to scrap tuition fees :o

    If they scrap most of the naff universities and courses, that's fine.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    DanSmith said:

    Does the IpsosMORI poll include Wales? Looking at the data tables, they don't have Wales as a section in the regional breakdown, and out of the 1000 people they spoke to, 2 people said they would vote PC. Looks odd.

    Wales is often lumped in the Midlands.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT - that truly is terrific snobbery by Hugh Grant.

    Being disliked by Hugh Grant will be a massive plus for May. People don't like posh boys much any more...
    I'm shocked to learn that Hugh Grant read English Literature at New College, Oxford.

    Don't you lot have standards over there?
    Cambridge admitted Neil Hamilton. End. Of. Argument.
    I see your Neil Hamilton and raise you a Jeffrey Archer.
    Jeffrey Archer's cv is an elaborate version of the Chronicles of Narnia.
    Ok, I raise you Reverend Underpants, Chris Bryant.
    I went to a real university, but can I point out that Cambridge also gave a doctorate to Tristram 'I'm too thick to use Google' Hunt?

    To give you some idea of his personal and professional standing, the Universities and Colleges Union is informally called the Useless Tristrams Union by its members (after he ignored their picket lines to lecture on Marxism).
    Feck, Tristram didn’t just get a Ph D at Cambridge.

    He was a Fellow in History at King’s College. He was able to teach and research without knowing how to use Google.
    I didn't know that! I thought he went straight to QMUL.

    So there was a time when they had a truly massive historical organ, plus a large musical instrument in the chapel?
    Fraid so.

    The timeline is:

    Independent School (SeanT’s if I recall right) --> Trinity College --> JRF at Kings College --> Lecturer at QMUL --> People’s Party MP at Stoke-on-Trent --> Director of the V&A.

    Living proof that in the UK, the son of a humble Labour peer can make good.

    He is certainly someone who has benefitted from hugely Brexit. The vacancy at the V&A only arose because Martin Roth went back to Germany, after Brexit.

    So, he didn’t help his constituents much in Stoke-on-Trent, but his constituents helped him enormously by opening up his next career jump.
    You could of course have added the TV documentaries on the Civil War, which were of course because he's a world renowned expert in the history of urban planning in the nineteenth century and therefore especially good on the events of the seventeenth cen..ah, hold on.
    Well, I missed them, but I recall a TV documentary on Isaac Newton, a subject he knows feck-all about.
    Did he lack gravitas?
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    madmacsmadmacs Posts: 75
    Cheltenham 4 LD, 1 Con leaflet
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ukip to scrap tuition fees :o

    If they scrap most of the naff universities and courses, that's fine.
    What would we do with all those empty buildings in Oxford and Cambridge?
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,083
    Does anyone have experience of any good value hotels in Valletta, Malta?
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    Quincel said:

    Pong said:

    I've spent the last few hours greening out my substantial Con seats position.

    Just after the election was announced, I went;

    350-399 = -£££££££££
    400-449 = +££££££££££££

    Now;

    0-650 = +£££

    I'm basically positionless right now.

    Other than in individual seat bets, there must be some value somewhere, right?

    Labour are still almost 2/1 on Betfair to get 30-35% of the vote. If their polling stays at 30-31%, and especially if it keeps growing, this should be a good trading bet or just a keeper.
    That's not a bad punt. Should be 6/4, perhaps? The danger is a polling failure on the scale of GE2015.

    Anyway, I did some scouting and found someone wanting to bet £310 @ 5.8 that the con maj would be 150-174 seats.

    That's too short for such a narrow band.

    I've taken on a £1.5k liability, anyway.
This discussion has been closed.