Hi all - very long term lurker here who's finally been prompted to sign up by this election. The manifesto seems not to have been a total car crash, but prodding your core vote with three weeks to go seems a bit unnecessary. The thing that gets me is the wasted opportunity to do something really spectacular, e.g. actually providing £350 million a week extra for the NHS, two-thirds of could be achieved by scrapping foreign aid. Result: catnip for Kippers, Labour voters, and Mr. and Mrs. Joe Average alike. Sigh.
Welcome.
The '£350m' is going into a UK Shared Prosperity Fund. Foreign aid is being 'redefined'.
There are three weeks to go so some of these themes will presumably develop and be pushed centre stage as we go on. The potentially unpopular bits seem to be getting their airing three weeks out while Corbyn shoots his load.
Is 'foreign aid' now defined as infrastructure expenditure spent north of the Watford Gap?
I've spent the last few hours greening out my substantial Con seats position.
Just after the election was announced, I went;
350-399 = -£££££££££ 400-449 = +££££££££££££
Now;
0-650 = +£££
I'm basically positionless right now.
Other than in individual seat bets, there must be some value somewhere, right?
Labour are still almost 2/1 on Betfair to get 30-35% of the vote. If their polling stays at 30-31%, and especially if it keeps growing, this should be a good trading bet or just a keeper.
That's not a bad punt. Should be 6/4, perhaps? The danger is a polling failure on the scale of GE2015.
Anyway, I did some scouting and found someone wanting to bet £310 @ 5.8 that the con maj would be 150-174 seats.
That's too short for such a narrow band.
I've taken on a £1.5k liability, anyway.
Yeah, I'm mostly hoping Labour are averaging 32-33% come election day and I cash out a day or so before.
Hi all - very long term lurker here who's finally been prompted to sign up by this election. The manifesto seems not to have been a total car crash, but prodding your core vote with three weeks to go seems a bit unnecessary. The thing that gets me is the wasted opportunity to do something really spectacular, e.g. actually providing £350 million a week extra for the NHS, two-thirds of could be achieved by scrapping foreign aid. Result: catnip for Kippers, Labour voters, and Mr. and Mrs. Joe Average alike. Sigh.
Welcome! Good that you're here as Tories are terribly under-represented on PB.
But I also bump up the Isn't-Varoufakis-dashing-for-a-crazy-Marxist demographic, so I've got cross-party appeal.
Any fan of Varoufakis is definitely an asset to the site!
I've always rather liked Varafoukis. Even though I don't agree with his politics, any enemy of that utter prat Juncker has to have something in his favour.
Same.
In the last year I've come to really like him as well. I'll always give his views a fair hearing, even if don't agree with aspects of his politics.
FPT - that truly is terrific snobbery by Hugh Grant.
Being disliked by Hugh Grant will be a massive plus for May. People don't like posh boys much any more...
I'm shocked to learn that Hugh Grant read English Literature at New College, Oxford.
Don't you lot have standards over there?
Cambridge admitted Neil Hamilton. End. Of. Argument.
I see your Neil Hamilton and raise you a Jeffrey Archer.
Jeffrey Archer's cv is an elaborate version of the Chronicles of Narnia.
Ok, I raise you Reverend Underpants, Chris Bryant.
I went to a real university, but can I point out that Cambridge also gave a doctorate to Tristram 'I'm too thick to use Google' Hunt?
To give you some idearxism).
Feck, Tristram didn’t just get a Ph D at Cambridge.
He was a Fellow in History at King’s College. He was able to teach and research without knowing how to use Google.
I didn't know that! I thought he went straight to QMUL.
So there was a time when they had a truly massive historical organ, plus a large musical instrument in the chapel?
Fraid so.
The timeline is:
Independent School (SeanT’s if I recall right) --> Trinity College --> JRF at Kings College --> Lecturer at QMUL --> People’s Party MP at Stoke-on-Trent --> Director of the V&A.
Living proof that in the UK, the son of a humble Labour peer can make good.
He is certainly someone who has benefitted from hugely Brexit. The vacancy at the V&A only arose because Martin Roth went back to Germany, after Brexit.
So, he didn’t help his constituents much in Stoke-on-Trent, but his constituents helped him enormously by opening up his next career jump.
You could of course have added the TV documentaries on the Civil War, which were of course because he's a world renowned expert in the history of urban planning in the nineteenth century and therefore especially good on the events of the seventeenth cen..ah, hold on.
Well, I missed them, but I recall a TV documentary on Isaac Newton, a subject he knows feck-all about.
I've spent the last few hours greening out my substantial Con seats position.
Just after the election was announced, I went;
350-399 = -£££££££££ 400-449 = +££££££££££££
Now;
0-650 = +£££
I'm basically positionless right now.
Other than in individual seat bets, there must be some value somewhere, right?
Labour are still almost 2/1 on Betfair to get 30-35% of the vote. If their polling stays at 30-31%, and especially if it keeps growing, this should be a good trading bet or just a keeper.
That's not a bad punt. Should be 6/4, perhaps? The danger is a polling failure on the scale of GE2015.
Anyway, I did some scouting and found someone wanting to bet £310 @ 5.8 that the con maj would be 150-174 seats.
That's too short for such a narrow band.
I've taken on a £1.5k liability, anyway.
Just remember that the polls are GB only. The bet will be on the UK share of the vote.
Well, I missed them, but I recall a TV documentary on Isaac Newton, a subject he knows feck-all about.
Did he lack gravitas?
He was a Barry Town part-timer up against the Premier League.
Some great thinkers have written about Newton. Here’s J Maynard Keynes, every sentence a zinger:
"He was the last of the magicians, the last of the Babylonians and Sumerians, the last great mind which looked out on the visible and intellectual world with the same eyes as those who began to build our intellectual inheritance rather less than 10,000 years ago. Isaac Newton, a posthumous child bom with no father on Christmas Day, 1642, was the last wonder child to whom the Magi could do sincere and appropriate homage.”
Does the IpsosMORI poll include Wales? Looking at the data tables, they don't have Wales as a section in the regional breakdown, and out of the 1000 people they spoke to, 2 people said they would vote PC. Looks odd.
LDs down 6, not 7 in Ipsos MORI. They were on 13 on 25th April.
Leaflet report from Norwich South, 2 labour one green, no others.
Cardiff Central: 2 Lib Dems. Zero others. Zero canvass from anyone. Posters (few) just left over from council elections.
2 Lab (no photo of Corbyn, no name check either. 2 LD both has photos of Corbyn, Farage & Trump (one does have Tim Farron). 1 Green leaflet with candidate. Nothing as yet from Tory in Bristol West.
Not sure if canvassers have been round. Have had Survaton phone polling.
Well, I missed them, but I recall a TV documentary on Isaac Newton, a subject he knows feck-all about.
Did he lack gravitas?
He was a Barry Town part-timer up against the Premier League.
Some great thinkers have written about Newton. Here’s J Maynard Keynes, every sentence a zinger:
"He was the last of the magicians, the last of the Babylonians and Sumerians, the last great mind which looked out on the visible and intellectual world with the same eyes as those who began to build our intellectual inheritance rather less than 10,000 years ago. Isaac Newton, a posthumous child bom with no father on Christmas Day, 1642, was the last wonder child to whom the Magi could do sincere and appropriate homage.”
Nuttall promises to keep the triple lock and oppose what he calls May's 'death tax' I think the shares of both main parties will fall a little after this debate, the Tories will lose some pensioners to UKIP and Labour a few to the Greens and LDs and Plaid as well
Well that's bollocks isn't it? Each game results in a minimum of 2 points being awarded, so it is only the difference between actual total points and 2 per game that have been 'won'.
I do think May and Corbyn should have taken part in debates. Its disappointing that someone who aspires to rule our country doesn't think she can defend the policies she intends to pursue from the level of challenge such a debate throws up. I can understand the tactics but its really not right.
If you're going to have debates they should be between those who can reasonably considered to have a chance of being PM. The rest are just a complete waste of time.
Agreed. And in the US the candidates really have to turn up no matter how far they are ahead in the polls. It should be the same here. She is getting off too lightly with this.
They could have trained a parrot to say 'Strong and Stable' and perched it on one of the podiums.
That the title of the Conservative manifesto is not 'Strong and Stable' is a great mystery.
Corbyn declining to participate in the debate tonight loses him the (unexpected) opportunity to push his momentum in the polls, but it may work out for him on a broader level - it underscores the fact that the people on stage today are the kids' table, the ones who are peripheral to the result.
Two-party politics could be back in really big way.
In locals near me the LDs had 3 leaflet drops, the Tories none (the candidate outright told me they hadn't done half the electoral area), and the latter won, easily, in what had been for a long time strong LD territory. Is there any indication leafleting helps more than marginally?
I do think May and Corbyn should have taken part in debates. Its disappointing that someone who aspires to rule our country doesn't think she can defend the policies she intends to pursue from the level of challenge such a debate throws up. I can understand the tactics but its really not right.
If you're going to have debates they should be between those who can reasonably considered to have a chance of being PM. The rest are just a complete waste of time.
Agreed. And in the US the candidates really have to turn up no matter how far they are ahead in the polls. It should be the same here. She is getting off too lightly with this.
They could have trained a parrot to say 'Strong and Stable' and perched it on one of the podiums.
That the title of the Conservative manifesto is not 'Strong and Stable' is a great mystery.
Ever since I saw a tweet a few weeks ago saying that you can sing "Strong and stable leadership" to the tune of "All Things Bright and Beautiful", I always sing it in my mind whenever I see it.
In locals near me the LDs had 3 leaflet drops, the Tories none (the candidate outright told me they hadn't done half the electoral area), and the latter won, easily, in what had been for a long time strong LD territory. Is there any indication leafleting helps more than marginally?
I've always been of the opinion that the 'ground game' is generally pointless. Moreso in the era of online campaigning. It does give the activists a sense of purpose and so isn't totally wasted.
Hi all - very long term lurker here who's finally been prompted to sign up by this election. The manifesto seems not to have been a total car crash, but prodding your core vote with three weeks to go seems a bit unnecessary. The thing that gets me is the wasted opportunity to do something really spectacular, e.g. actually providing £350 million a week extra for the NHS, two-thirds of could be achieved by scrapping foreign aid. Result: catnip for Kippers, Labour voters, and Mr. and Mrs. Joe Average alike. Sigh.
Welcome! Good that you're here as Tories are terribly under-represented on PB.
Relative to the voting population, that is probably true....
Nuttall promises to keep the triple lock and oppose what he calls May's 'death tax' I think the shares of both main parties will fall a little after this debate, the Tories will lose some pensioners to UKIP and Labour a few to the Greens and LDs and Plaid as well
I doubt enough people will be watching the debate to notice a change on voting intention polls...
However I do think Con will be down quite a bit at the weekend after today's manifesto launch.
And most of it cannot vote for her. All she needs is good turnout, and confused opposition, and she gets another fantastic result in Scotland rather than merely a very good and dominant one.
In locals near me the LDs had 3 leaflet drops, the Tories none (the candidate outright told me they hadn't done half the electoral area), and the latter won, easily, in what had been for a long time strong LD territory. Is there any indication leafleting helps more than marginally?
It works to some degree. CLay cross north LDs 30ish% South 7 odd%
In locals near me the LDs had 3 leaflet drops, the Tories none (the candidate outright told me they hadn't done half the electoral area), and the latter won, easily, in what had been for a long time strong LD territory. Is there any indication leafleting helps more than marginally?
I think it might if tactical voting is a factor, i.e. there are a reasonable number of voters who mostly what to stop party A, rater than vote for Party B or C, who cant be bothered to look up who is in second place in their area and will just go on who delivers the most leaflets. but beyond that, probably only marginally and even there I suspect there is a bit 'law or diminishing returns' at play. but if you have activists and money for leaflets what else do you do? some activist are happy to deliver leaflets but reluctant to nock on doors.
The whole concept of the debate is nonsensical, with or without May/Corbyn. Two of the leaders have no need to appeal to the national electorate as they are regionally based politicians leading regionally based parties and can tailor their message specifically. And neither are even standing for election. One leader is officially national, but realistically in Parliamentary terms has the status of an independent MP. And the others are the LibDems and UKIP who pre-debates might have merited a couple of Party political broadcasts.
Regardless of whether you think May/Corbyn are "frit" for not debating, they are operating on a completely different playing field and the terms of debate could never be fair.
Corbyn declining to participate in the debate tonight loses him the (unexpected) opportunity to push his momentum in the polls, but it may work out for him on a broader level - it underscores the fact that the people on stage today are the kids' table, the ones who are peripheral to the result.
Two-party politics could be back in really big way.
Four also-rans and Nicola Sturgeon, turning up to give moral support to Caroline and Natalie.
A similar point has been made by others: back in 2015, Clegg was Deputy Prime Minister and Farage a very high-profile figure. Now only Sturgeon is of any importance, and even then her party isn't an option available on the ballot paper for 92% of the UK population.
There was no need for May and Corbyn to turn up because this debate was merely an opportunity for the minor party leaders to raise their profiles. There was nothing in it for them.
Besides, I doubt that these sorts of set pieces with prepared responses and ritualised, PMQs style yelling, are particularly revealing anyway. We might, possibly, learn more from leader interviews with decent political journalists, and individual Q&As with an audience representative of the general public. I believe that the latter is coming from the BBC nearer to polling day, not sure about the former.
ITV News headlines not great for the Tories.... running down the losers from the Manifesto, followed by negative vox-pop.
It will be an interesting test - the manifesto launch was surely always going to be more negative than Labour's, because Labour are promising massive investment, wage rises, and an end to cutting. The Tories are abandoning deficit reduction (effectively) but are still presenting as more realistic, and therefore were going to have more negative stuff in it.
If someone thinks Corbyn is not up to the job, as seems the case, I am baffled that so many people have seemingly already returned to Labour - if significant numbers switch because the Tory manifesto has some bad parts, I will have lost all sense of why people vote the way they do, since they could not be clearer they have issues with Corbyn and Labour, and yet might jump because the Tories are shit too? To where? Back to the other crap lot?
I've read all three of the damn things, and the most detailed was the LDs, the one with the nicest policies was Labour's (mostly because it was a cash flow free for all which naturally sounds nice - obviously it had plenty of bad ones), the most measured seeming was the Tories (not surprisingly, as their message was 'let's improve on the good path we've demonstrated). The best written was the Tories, the best presented was the LDs, the clearest was the Tories.
Did Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth for the first time today, and on Monday did Preston to Carlisle
You are a national treasure or need help. I'll go with the former (I guess!).
I have managed to get my two daughters interested in politics (aged 11 and 16). The younger one even reads this board from time to time... (she is otherwise totally normal). Sunil is her favourite poster. All true.
In locals near me the LDs had 3 leaflet drops, the Tories none (the candidate outright told me they hadn't done half the electoral area), and the latter won, easily, in what had been for a long time strong LD territory. Is there any indication leafleting helps more than marginally?
I've always been of the opinion that the 'ground game' is generally pointless. Moreso in the era of online campaigning. It does give the activists a sense of purpose and so isn't totally wasted.
Did Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth for the first time today, and on Monday did Preston to Carlisle
You are a national treasure or need help. I'll go with the former (I guess!).
I have managed to get my two daughters interested in politics (aged 11 and 16). The younger one even reads this board from time to time... (she is otherwise totally normal). Sunil is her favourite poster. All true.
Did Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth for the first time today, and on Monday did Preston to Carlisle
You are a national treasure or need help. I'll go with the former (I guess!).
I have managed to get my two daughters interested in politics (aged 11 and 16). The younger one even reads this board from time to time... (she is otherwise totally normal). Sunil is her favourite poster. All true.
Nuttall promises to keep the triple lock and oppose what he calls May's 'death tax' I think the shares of both main parties will fall a little after this debate, the Tories will lose some pensioners to UKIP and Labour a few to the Greens and LDs and Plaid as well
I doubt enough people will be watching the debate to notice a change on voting intention polls...
However I do think Con will be down quite a bit at the weekend after today's manifesto launch.
In order for the Con share to decline significantly, all of those votes have to go somewhere else. Ukip and anti-Ukip have both been sidelined, and the Greens have always been niche all along.
Nuttall promises to keep the triple lock and oppose what he calls May's 'death tax' I think the shares of both main parties will fall a little after this debate, the Tories will lose some pensioners to UKIP and Labour a few to the Greens and LDs and Plaid as well
I doubt enough people will be watching the debate to notice a change on voting intention polls...
However I do think Con will be down quite a bit at the weekend after today's manifesto launch.
In order for the Con share to decline significantly, all of those votes have to go somewhere else. Ukip and anti-Ukip have both been sidelined, and the Greens have always been niche all along.
So, Labour on 37-38%? A terrifying notion.
Labour had been 10 or so behind before a sudden jump to 20 just before the GE was called, and have pulled closer to middle to low teens since. A lead of less than 10 for the Tories seems very likely, but is far far more than Jeremy Corbyn deserves, or the LDs deserve quite frankly, let alone poor Ed M.
1. Caroline Lucas (by a whisker) 2. Nicola Sturgeon 3. Leanne Wood 4. Tim Farron (big mistake to keep talking about himself) 5. Paul Nuttall (last by a distance)
(Audience reaction well worth listening to)
So the only one who stands a serious chance of taking votes away from the Conservatives, Natalie Nuttall, comes last.
Did Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth for the first time today, and on Monday did Preston to Carlisle
You are a national treasure or need help. I'll go with the former (I guess!).
I have managed to get my two daughters interested in politics (aged 11 and 16). The younger one even reads this board from time to time... (she is otherwise totally normal). Sunil is her favourite poster. All true.
Um, thanks! Not sure if I should be elated or alarmed
Why does everyone assume that the Tory manifesto is an unambiguous vote loser? Surely there is plenty in it that will be popular among the sort of working class voters that have moved from Labour to Tory? And where are the "freemarketeers" (not widely flavour of the month/year at present) going to go?
In locals near me the LDs had 3 leaflet drops, the Tories none (the candidate outright told me they hadn't done half the electoral area), and the latter won, easily, in what had been for a long time strong LD territory. Is there any indication leafleting helps more than marginally?
I've always been of the opinion that the 'ground game' is generally pointless. Moreso in the era of online campaigning. It does give the activists a sense of purpose and so isn't totally wasted.
What about the GOTV?
I knew that George Osborne now ran a newspaper, I didn't realise he had his own television station too!
Back to the point, how many voters are 'got out'? Voters vote because they want to vote. They vote for a party primarily based on the national campaign and national leadership. Everything else is margin of error stuff.
I'm really not expecting much activity this election campaign. Only got 1 thing from the Tories last time (it's a very safe seat) and as mentioned they didn't even manage that for the Local elections. Normally the LDs put in a good showing, but they were down to fourth last time, and they worked the area hard in the locals and got bugger all to show for it electorally, I cannot see the local activists bothering, not when they should probably head out to Bath or something to try to help candidates with more of a shot (albeit not very much of a shot).
The social care stuff in the Con manifesto is a little bit of good news for Norman Lamb, IMO.
Not sure it'll be enough for him to keep his seat - but it's a real, scary tory policy he can run with in his leaflets. That's got to help him - He has a decent profile on health & social care and the average age of his constituents is really high.
BBC news doing a voxpox of pensioners in Halifax and at a snooker club and most seem to still back May and think her plans fair enough and back cuts in immigration, though a few mums unhappy about the cuts in free school meals
Been out in a rain-soaked town looking at the river through glass, and the veil of incessant falling water. I'm soaked. No idea how people from Lancashire/Cumbria/Scotland put up with this on a daily basis, but I quite liked it.
I note that we are all testosterone-gooey over Leanne Wood's accent and that Corbyn Is Crap Is PM.
Did Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth for the first time today, and on Monday did Preston to Carlisle
You are a national treasure or need help. I'll go with the former (I guess!).
I have managed to get my two daughters interested in politics (aged 11 and 16). The younger one even reads this board from time to time... (she is otherwise totally normal). Sunil is her favourite poster. All true.
Fair play to Nuttall, he says too many are going to university.
So what else are you going to do with them genius?
There are lots of other ways that young people can/should get education and training. Throwing all the eggs in the uni basket always seemed to me to be a daft policy.
BBC news doing a voxpox of pensioners in Halifax and at a snooker club and most seem to still back May and think her plans fair enough and back cuts in immigration, though a few mums unhappy about the cuts in free school meals
I didn't know what to think of that policy, it sounds so benign, but an acquaintance I truly respect was fiercely opposed to it as it had been instituted, I was quite taken aback.
Been out in a rain-soaked town looking at the river through glass, and the veil of incessant falling water. I'm soaked. No idea how people from Lancashire/Cumbria/Scotland put up with this on a daily basis, but I quite liked it.
I note that we are all testosterone-gooey over Leanne Wood's accent and that Corbyn Is Crap Is PM.
Only on PB.
You forgot to mention the emergence of the PB Varoufakis fan club!
FPT - that truly is terrific snobbery by Hugh Grant.
Being disliked by Hugh Grant will be a massive plus for May. People don't like posh boys much any more...
I'm shocked to learn that Hugh Grant read English Literature at New College, Oxford.
Don't you lot have standards over there?
Cambridge admitted Neil Hamilton. End. Of. Argument.
I see your Neil Hamilton and raise you a Jeffrey Archer.
Jeffrey Archer's cv is an elaborate version of the Chronicles of Narnia.
Ok, I raise you Reverend Underpants, Chris Bryant.
I went to a real university, but can I point out that Cambridge also gave a doctorate to Tristram 'I'm too thick to use Google' Hunt?
To give you some idea of his personal and professional standing, the Universities and Colleges Union is informally called the Useless Tristrams Union by its members (after he ignored their picket lines to lecture on Marxism).
Feck, Tristram didn’t just get a Ph D at Cambridge.
He was a Fellow in History at King’s College. He was able to teach and research without knowing how to use Google.
I didn't know that! I thought he went straight to QMUL.
So there was a time when they had a truly massive historical organ, plus a large musical instrument in the chapel?
Fraid so.
The timeline is:
Independent School (SeanT’s if I recall right) --> Trinity College --> JRF at Kings College --> Lecturer at QMUL --> People’s Party MP at Stoke-on-Trent --> Director of the V&A.
Living proof that in the UK, the son of a humble Labour peer can make good.
He is certainly someone who has benefitted hugely from Brexit. The vacancy at the V&A only arose because Martin Roth went back to Germany, after Brexit.
So, he didn’t help his constituents much in Brexit Central, Stoke-on-Trent, but his constituents helped him enormously by opening up his next career jump.
ITV News headlines not great for the Tories.... running down the losers from the Manifesto, followed by negative vox-pop.
It will be an interesting test - the manifesto launch was surely always going to be more negative than Labour's, because Labour are promising massive investment, wage rises, and an end to cutting. The Tories are abandoning deficit reduction (effectively) but are still presenting as more realistic, and therefore were going to have more negative stuff in it.
If someone thinks Corbyn is not up to the job, as seems the case, I am baffled that so many people have seemingly already returned to Labour - if significant numbers switch because the Tory manifesto has some bad parts, I will have lost all sense of why people vote the way they do, since they could not be clearer they have issues with Corbyn and Labour, and yet might jump because the Tories are shit too? To where? Back to the other crap lot?
I've read all three of the damn things, and the most detailed was the LDs, the one with the nicest policies was Labour's (mostly because it was a cash flow free for all which naturally sounds nice - obviously it had plenty of bad ones), the most measured seeming was the Tories (not surprisingly, as their message was 'let's improve on the good path we've demonstrated). The best written was the Tories, the best presented was the LDs, the clearest was the Tories.
And the one which seems to have gone down like a bucket of sick is the Tory one - just this morning nicky campbell asking for listeners who liked some of the idea's because none coming through on radio 5 phone in .
Fair play to Nuttall, he says too many are going to university.
So what else are you going to do with them genius?
They could get jobs? where they would pick up some experience, or they could do an aprenteship, or some other technical training, or they could start a business, or they could join a band and become the next Beetles? ok that last one will only be very small %
I'm not to fussed, but I am pretty confidant that to many people have come to the opinion that because sending some to university is a good idea, that sending more most be even better, its not, their are lots going to university at a bit cost to themselves and the taxpayer, who are not benefiting because there are not a lot of jobs for people who are of average intelligent but with a bit pf paper to say they spend 3/4 years at a uni.
What would May prefer? A solid majority of 50-60 without any hostages to fortune built into the manifesto (other than Brexit, obviously). Or a landslide of 100+ but with no room for movement on tax/spend and limited ability to utilise economic levers to actually deliver for the new coalition of voters that she has been gifted?
ITV News headlines not great for the Tories.... running down the losers from the Manifesto, followed by negative vox-pop.
It will be an interesting test - the manifesto launch was surely always going to be more negative than Labour's, because Labour are promising massive investment, wage rises, and an end to cutting. The Tories are abandoning deficit reduction (effectively) but are still presenting as more realistic, and therefore were going to have more negative stuff in it.
If someone thinks Corbyn is not up to the job, as seems the case, I am baffled that so many people have seemingly already returned to Labour - if significant numbers switch because the Tory manifesto has some bad parts, I will have lost all sense of why people vote the way they do, since they could not be clearer they have issues with Corbyn and Labour, and yet might jump because the Tories are shit too? To where? Back to the other crap lot?
I've read all three of the damn things, and the most detailed was the LDs, the one with the nicest policies was Labour's (mostly because it was a cash flow free for all which naturally sounds nice - obviously it had plenty of bad ones), the most measured seeming was the Tories (not surprisingly, as their message was 'let's improve on the good path we've demonstrated). The best written was the Tories, the best presented was the LDs, the clearest was the Tories.
And the one which seems to have gone down like a bucket of sick is the Tory one - just this morning nicky campbell asking for listeners who liked some of the idea's because none coming through on radio 5 phone in .
Well it is the one that is less 'give everybody free stuff' and more 'give with one hand, taketh with the other', I'm not surprised its gone down poorly, particularly since the consensus seems to be it is also not aimed at some of the core Tory vote (which May is taking for granted).
Comments
I'll get my coat. Goodnight.
In the last year I've come to really like him as well. I'll always give his views a fair hearing, even if don't agree with aspects of his politics.
Did Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth for the first time today, and on Monday did Preston to Carlisle
Some great thinkers have written about Newton. Here’s J Maynard Keynes, every sentence a zinger:
"He was the last of the magicians, the last of the Babylonians and Sumerians, the last great mind which looked out on the visible and intellectual world with the same eyes as those who began to build our intellectual inheritance rather less than 10,000 years ago. Isaac Newton, a posthumous child bom with no father on Christmas Day, 1642, was the last wonder child to whom the Magi could do sincere and appropriate homage.”
How can Poor Tristram compete with that?
Not sure if canvassers have been round. Have had Survaton phone polling.
Even Farron is better than him.
WillS.
Corbyn declining to participate in the debate tonight loses him the (unexpected) opportunity to push his momentum in the polls, but it may work out for him on a broader level - it underscores the fact that the people on stage today are the kids' table, the ones who are peripheral to the result.
Two-party politics could be back in really big way.
In locals near me the LDs had 3 leaflet drops, the Tories none (the candidate outright told me they hadn't done half the electoral area), and the latter won, easily, in what had been for a long time strong LD territory. Is there any indication leafleting helps more than marginally?
I arrived too late to do the Rheidol narrow gauge (only two trains today), but as a consolation, I did the Cliff Railway instead
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/865309616669962241
However I do think Con will be down quite a bit at the weekend after today's manifesto launch.
May, Corbyn, Farron, Nuttle,
Party's with leaders who are not Jocks:
err......err.....err...who is leading the official monster raving loony party at the moment?....err.
Regardless of whether you think May/Corbyn are "frit" for not debating, they are operating on a completely different playing field and the terms of debate could never be fair.
A similar point has been made by others: back in 2015, Clegg was Deputy Prime Minister and Farage a very high-profile figure. Now only Sturgeon is of any importance, and even then her party isn't an option available on the ballot paper for 92% of the UK population.
There was no need for May and Corbyn to turn up because this debate was merely an opportunity for the minor party leaders to raise their profiles. There was nothing in it for them.
Besides, I doubt that these sorts of set pieces with prepared responses and ritualised, PMQs style yelling, are particularly revealing anyway. We might, possibly, learn more from leader interviews with decent political journalists, and individual Q&As with an audience representative of the general public. I believe that the latter is coming from the BBC nearer to polling day, not sure about the former.
https://libertarianpartyuk.com/
I'm not shore if I would vote for them, a bit to big government for me.
If someone thinks Corbyn is not up to the job, as seems the case, I am baffled that so many people have seemingly already returned to Labour - if significant numbers switch because the Tory manifesto has some bad parts, I will have lost all sense of why people vote the way they do, since they could not be clearer they have issues with Corbyn and Labour, and yet might jump because the Tories are shit too? To where? Back to the other crap lot?
I've read all three of the damn things, and the most detailed was the LDs, the one with the nicest policies was Labour's (mostly because it was a cash flow free for all which naturally sounds nice - obviously it had plenty of bad ones), the most measured seeming was the Tories (not surprisingly, as their message was 'let's improve on the good path we've demonstrated). The best written was the Tories, the best presented was the LDs, the clearest was the Tories.
#itvdebate
Sunil is her favourite poster. All true.
So, Labour on 37-38%? A terrifying notion.
Exeter City 3 Carlisle United 2 (6-5) - the only thing that matters tonight.
BTW, LDs were down 6 in Ipsos MORI, not 7, as you erroneously Tweeted earlier.
WillS.
Back to the point, how many voters are 'got out'? Voters vote because they want to vote. They vote for a party primarily based on the national campaign and national leadership. Everything else is margin of error stuff.
Not sure it'll be enough for him to keep his seat - but it's a real, scary tory policy he can run with in his leaflets. That's got to help him - He has a decent profile on health & social care and the average age of his constituents is really high.
I wouldn't lay him at current odds (~6/4)
He may be worth backing.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131323942
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/north-norfolk/winning-party
Been out in a rain-soaked town looking at the river through glass, and the veil of incessant falling water. I'm soaked. No idea how people from Lancashire/Cumbria/Scotland put up with this on a daily basis, but I quite liked it.
I note that we are all testosterone-gooey over Leanne Wood's accent and that Corbyn Is Crap Is PM.
Only on PB.
Although I guess the page can be updated from Notable former pupils: Sean Thomas (citation needed)
I'm not to fussed, but I am pretty confidant that to many people have come to the opinion that because sending some to university is a good idea, that sending more most be even better, its not, their are lots going to university at a bit cost to themselves and the taxpayer, who are not benefiting because there are not a lot of jobs for people who are of average intelligent but with a bit pf paper to say they spend 3/4 years at a uni.
https://twitter.com/michaelsheen/status/865316781388333057
They seem to think being in the public eye means we give a toss what they think.
We don't.