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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Branding the Tories totally around Theresa has made it easier

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,298
    Mortimer said:

    Feeling a bit nauseous now about my LibDem constituency bets.

    Now expecting to lose the 25/1 on Olney in Richmond Park - and also the nets on Bath going Yellow. They were still both excellent value bets, mind, and hedged my bullish Tory constituency bets...
    You must be able to hedge the 25/1 on the seat itself to guarantee a profit?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    SeanT said:

    Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.

    Someone needs to hook him off

    Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
    Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
    What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,030
    Dura_Ace said:

    Crosby is clearly no fool. But neither is he a genius. He's had a couple of major recent flops (in Canada and London) where he badly misjudged the theme.

    And in the last Australian federal election where he was outsmarted by the ALP with their "Mediscare" campaign. He had no effective counter and lost a lot of NSW and QLD seats for the LNP. He brought piss to a shit fight.
    The Liberals still won though and he was vital in John Howard's wins (Howard was quite similar to May). Canada was a lost cause after years of Tory rule and against Trudeau but the results could have been worse for Harper
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    I've just had a nibble on Clive Lewis at 8/13. Norwich Labour vote holding up very well and Tories well adrift in Bowthorpe. They can't win it on New Costessey alone.

    I think this is free money. Labour making gains (from Greens) in Norwich.
    Yep, they've taken Mancroft on a collapse of 20% in the green vote. Lewis looks like increasing his majority to me, Greens capitulation.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,310
    Yes, Crosby's re-branding of May has been quite extraordinary. Many moons ago May was actually a figure of contempt amongst the British Right: the 'nasty party' stuff was seen as self-flagellating and pandering; she espoused such notions of gender equality; she wasn't at all sympathetic to criticism of Islam. All in all May was seen as a robotic, unprincipled, PC jellyfish and the very embodiment of societal decline. That's all forgotten now, of course.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @RachelWatson27: Twenty-year-old Thomas Kerr says he is 'shocked' after becoming the first Tory elected in Glasgow's Shettleston #council17
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Feeling a bit nauseous now about my LibDem constituency bets.

    Now expecting to lose the 25/1 on Olney in Richmond Park - and also the nets on Bath going Yellow. They were still both excellent value bets, mind, and hedged my bullish Tory constituency bets...
    You must be able to hedge the 25/1 on the seat itself to guarantee a profit?
    Yep - I could. I'm going to hold it for now, just in case....
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344

    Another one we were worried about in Notts is held easily - West Bridgford North (boundary changes make comparisons hard). Tories piling up big leads in seats they held before, but struggling to make gains so far - Labour (and in Collingham Independent) defences holding...up to now.

    Just looking at the Notts live results - seems an independent has won in Ashfield. Is that a change?
    Is that Selston? If so, no, it's a safe Indie seat, usually votes with Labour.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @neilelkes: It's looking increasingly good for Conservative Andy Street here. The signals are that Labour are struggling. #wmmayor
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,030
    Scott_P said:

    There are no words...

    @paulwaugh: I'm told Corbyn has asked for data on voter-contact rate in each council seat lost. That suggests he thinks lack of doorknocking to blame

    Corbynistas spend too much time tweeting and not enough time doorknocking unlike the Tories and LDs
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,329

    SeanT said:

    Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.

    Someone needs to hook him off

    Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
    Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
    What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
    It very much is the EU problem - no deal no money for them
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,760

    SeanT said:

    Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.

    Someone needs to hook him off

    Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
    Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
    What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
    Barnier regards the dinner leak as 'unhelpful' (well, for the EU, anyway...)
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344

    I've just had a nibble on Clive Lewis at 8/13. Norwich Labour vote holding up very well and Tories well adrift in Bowthorpe. They can't win it on New Costessey alone.

    I think this is free money. Labour making gains (from Greens) in Norwich.
    Brighton Kemptown is a similar seat where Labour could well squeeze the Greens to pick it up.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    And Greens booted in my ward of Nelson despite my vote. Lewis looks impregnable to me, get on him
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,045

    Tories gain Eastwood from LibDems - this is the seat where I had to pull out as I'd moved out of the County boundary.

    (Snip)

    Eastwood, the birthplace of the best railway company in the world: the Midland!

    (Born at a meeting at the Sun Inn in 1832).
    And of D. H Lawrence. He's probably slowly rotating under the sod at having a Tory councillor.....
    He would not recognise the modern world, yet alone any of the parties.

    The Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal (Democrats) are all radically different beasts a hundred years later. Although Corbyn's trying to drag Labour back ...
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Lewis' price already in to 1/2
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    BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391

    SeanT said:

    Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.

    Someone needs to hook him off

    Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
    Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
    What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
    He owes his position to the EU27 heads of government. If he keeps on like this, he will be sidelined from Brexit totally and his influence in other areas diminished... what's the Luxembourgish for loose cannon?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Steven_Swinford: Arron Banks: Under Farage Ukip was racing car. Nuttall has 'crashed the car at the first bend of the race killing driver and spectators'
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266
    Looks like Tories have taken 4 seats so far of Lab in Derbyshire.
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    Mortimer said:

    Feeling a bit nauseous now about my LibDem constituency bets.

    Now expecting to lose the 25/1 on Olney in Richmond Park - and also the nets on Bath going Yellow. They were still both excellent value bets, mind, and hedged my bullish Tory constituency bets...
    Likewise Bath. I am also on Cheadle and Burnley.
    Not a great bet on Bath with hindsight but I'd not write it off just yet.

    The Bath and North East Somerset mayoral first count had Con 13,103, Lib Dem 10,021, Labour 6,137. That encompasses Rees-Mogg's seat (traditionally Con/Lab battle) as well as Bath. So that looks competitive.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    SeanT said:

    Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.

    Someone needs to hook him off

    Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
    Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
    What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
    It very much is the EU problem - no deal no money for them
    The money is small change in the context of the overall size of the EU's economies. Yes, there would be arguments about where to find the gap, but a deal would be struck.

    Leavers need to stop hyperventilating every time Jean-Claude Juncker picks up his pen to fill in a crossword clue.
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    JonWCJonWC Posts: 285
    LDs seem to be freefall in Devon.. which was not expected either. The former MP has just lost his seat in Teignmouth.
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    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    There are no words...

    @paulwaugh: I'm told Corbyn has asked for data on voter-contact rate in each council seat lost. That suggests he thinks lack of doorknocking to blame

    Corbynistas spend too much time tweeting and not enough time doorknocking unlike the Tories and LDs
    or voting for that matter.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    SeanT said:

    Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.

    Someone needs to hook him off

    Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
    Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
    What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
    He owes his position to the EU27 heads of government. If he keeps on like this, he will be sidelined from Brexit totally and his influence in other areas diminished... what's the Luxembourgish for loose cannon?
    Get a grip. The reaction from most sane Britons, never mind your average Eurocrat, will be that if the more lunatic Leavers can't spot a joke, that's their problem not his.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344

    Another one we were worried about in Notts is held easily - West Bridgford North (boundary changes make comparisons hard). Tories piling up big leads in seats they held before, but struggling to make gains so far - Labour (and in Collingham Independent) defences holding...up to now.

    Just looking at the Notts live results - seems an independent has won in Ashfield. Is that a change?
    Is that Selston? If so, no, it's a safe Indie seat, usually votes with Labour.
    Ah no I see - it's the former LibDem leader Zadrozny who is no longer a member of the party due to a legal case which I believe is still ongoing (so I won't say more).
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266

    Another one we were worried about in Notts is held easily - West Bridgford North (boundary changes make comparisons hard). Tories piling up big leads in seats they held before, but struggling to make gains so far - Labour (and in Collingham Independent) defences holding...up to now.

    Just looking at the Notts live results - seems an independent has won in Ashfield. Is that a change?
    Is that Selston? If so, no, it's a safe Indie seat, usually votes with Labour.
    Just described as 'Ashfields'.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,298
    The UKIP hold was a mistake?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980

    Looks like Tories have taken 4 seats so far of Lab in Derbyshire.

    I make it 8 so far!
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,329

    SeanT said:

    Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.

    Someone needs to hook him off

    Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
    Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
    What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
    It very much is the EU problem - no deal no money for them
    The money is small change in the context of the overall size of the EU's economies. Yes, there would be arguments about where to find the gap, but a deal would be struck.

    Leavers need to stop hyperventilating every time Jean-Claude Juncker picks up his pen to fill in a crossword clue.
    He is very toxic but then I expect a remainer to defend anything to do with the wonderful EU
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980
    IanB2 said:

    The UKIP hold was a mistake?

    The Northamptonshire website has gone back to 0 seats declared. Maybe it was a fake dataset?
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    I've just had a nibble on Clive Lewis at 8/13. Norwich Labour vote holding up very well and Tories well adrift in Bowthorpe. They can't win it on New Costessey alone.

    I think this is free money. Labour making gains (from Greens) in Norwich.
    Brighton Kemptown is a similar seat where Labour could well squeeze the Greens to pick it up.
    If there is any seat that might buck the national Lab/Con trend, I agree this is it. But the trend is strong, and I'm not sure 5/1 is tempting enough.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    First Tory gain from Labour in Notts - Retford East by 37 votes. That eliminates the Labour majority (which was 1), though the Indies and LibDems have generally voted with Labour recently. Plenty of seats still to come.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    Scott_P said:

    @neilelkes: It's looking increasingly good for Conservative Andy Street here. The signals are that Labour are struggling. #wmmayor

    Fantastic news for Andy Street, and bodes well for the GE in that area too.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266

    Another one we were worried about in Notts is held easily - West Bridgford North (boundary changes make comparisons hard). Tories piling up big leads in seats they held before, but struggling to make gains so far - Labour (and in Collingham Independent) defences holding...up to now.

    Just looking at the Notts live results - seems an independent has won in Ashfield. Is that a change?
    Is that Selston? If so, no, it's a safe Indie seat, usually votes with Labour.
    Ah no I see - it's the former LibDem leader Zadrozny who is no longer a member of the party due to a legal case which I believe is still ongoing (so I won't say more).
    Gloria in trouble?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820
    SeanT said:

    There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.

    UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.

    Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.

    True. I am really disappointed with the lds right now. What's the point?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980
    RobD said:

    Looks like Tories have taken 4 seats so far of Lab in Derbyshire.

    I make it 8 so far!
    Correction... 9!
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Labour is doing ok in Norfolk having won seats from the Greens in Norwich and UKIP in Yarmouth.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    SeanT said:

    Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.

    Someone needs to hook him off

    Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
    Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
    What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
    It very much is the EU problem - no deal no money for them
    The money is small change in the context of the overall size of the EU's economies. Yes, there would be arguments about where to find the gap, but a deal would be struck.

    Leavers need to stop hyperventilating every time Jean-Claude Juncker picks up his pen to fill in a crossword clue.
    He is very toxic but then I expect a remainer to defend anything to do with the wonderful EU
    I'm not a fan of him at all. I think he should have resigned last summer. But I can recognise hysteria when I see it and far too many Leavers are descending into it so far as he is concerned.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082
    Trump to meet Tusk and Juncker in Brussels before UK election.

    https://twitter.com/afp/status/860435845563678721
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,501
    ‪Last week Lab's private pollster said Lab was polling 20% for the GE, I thought it was spin, now I think they were overestimating it. ‬
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    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:

    Track the England councils here - https://goo.gl/uzcozl

    UKIP had their first win of the night in Northamptonshire! A gain from the Tories no less.

    That's very close to the football ground. I wonder if that scandal is having an impact?
    Surprised guys. The Nothamptonshire count isn't until 2pm...
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    edited May 2017

    SeanT said:

    Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.

    Someone needs to hook him off

    Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
    Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
    What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
    Barnier regards the dinner leak as 'unhelpful' (well, for the EU, anyway...)
    File under 'No shit, Sherlock'.

    When the serious negotiations start they need to get rid of the drunken idiot, and in the meantime they need to understand that everything they say in the next five weeks will only give Theresa a bigger majority. She now doesn't need to care about keeping both Ken Clarke and Bill Cash happy.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266

    ‪Last week Lab's private pollster said Lab was polling 20% for the GE, I thought it was spin, now I think they were overestimating it. ‬

    As I have been saying for some time. The 28-29% we are seeing in national polls is nonsense. It has to be. Look at the reaction Corbyn gets from voters.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    And two Tory gains in Hucknall, by 74 and 398. Hucknall had 3 Labour seats but was split into two 1-member divisions, so that's two and a half Tory gains, so to speak.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.

    UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.

    Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.

    True. I am really disappointed with the lds right now. What's the point?
    Doesn't look bad in their target seats. My next door seat is Eastleigh and there they went from 3 to 7 (that's a clean sweep of all available County seats).
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    I've just had a nibble on Clive Lewis at 8/13. Norwich Labour vote holding up very well and Tories well adrift in Bowthorpe. They can't win it on New Costessey alone.

    I think this is free money. Labour making gains (from Greens) in Norwich.
    Brighton Kemptown is a similar seat where Labour could well squeeze the Greens to pick it up.
    I think Labour can hold Hove as well. Smallish Green vote to sqeeze, but only a small UKIP vote too, plus a popular MP with first time incumbency and demographics moving in Labours favour. 5/2 seems decent value.
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    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    BBC panel is a total shit show.

    Tom Brake looks as though he needs to see a doctor..

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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Looks like Tories have taken 4 seats so far of Lab in Derbyshire.

    I make it 8 so far!
    Correction... 9!
    I'm going off the local newspaper website, so a bit behind maybe. Is there a live feed from actual council?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,329
    Junckers stupid remarks highlighted on BBC and provoked an instant angry response from my wife.

    He needs to be sidelined by Tusk
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Feeling a bit nauseous now about my LibDem constituency bets.

    Now expecting to lose the 25/1 on Olney in Richmond Park - and also the nets on Bath going Yellow. They were still both excellent value bets, mind, and hedged my bullish Tory constituency bets...
    You must be able to hedge the 25/1 on the seat itself to guarantee a profit?
    It's at 29-1 on betfair exchange when I checked....
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    JonWCJonWC Posts: 285

    First Tory gain from Labour in Notts - Retford East by 37 votes. That eliminates the Labour majority (which was 1), though the Indies and LibDems have generally voted with Labour recently. Plenty of seats still to come.

    Does that mean Con gain Bassetlaw in June? It's an area which ought to trend Tory now the mining is gone.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266
    edited May 2017
    Con have gained Swadlincote South (Derbys) - isn't that a former mining town?
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Feeling a bit nauseous now about my LibDem constituency bets.

    Now expecting to lose the 25/1 on Olney in Richmond Park - and also the nets on Bath going Yellow. They were still both excellent value bets, mind, and hedged my bullish Tory constituency bets...
    You must be able to hedge the 25/1 on the seat itself to guarantee a profit?
    It's at 29-1 on betfair exchange when I checked....
    Now gone... May have been a glitch I think.
    Got some of it though.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,329

    Trump to meet Tusk and Juncker in Brussels before UK election.

    https://twitter.com/afp/status/860435845563678721

    Knock sense into them
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266
    Another seat fallen in Derbyshire - Long Eaton gone CON.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    On those figures Labour is losing 30% of the seats being defended.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,298
    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Feeling a bit nauseous now about my LibDem constituency bets.

    Now expecting to lose the 25/1 on Olney in Richmond Park - and also the nets on Bath going Yellow. They were still both excellent value bets, mind, and hedged my bullish Tory constituency bets...
    You must be able to hedge the 25/1 on the seat itself to guarantee a profit?
    It's at 29-1 on betfair exchange when I checked....
    On sportsbook the Tories are at 10/11. A small bet on them and you can't lose overall.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    SeanT said:

    Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.

    Someone needs to hook him off

    Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
    Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
    What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
    He owes his position to the EU27 heads of government. If he keeps on like this, he will be sidelined from Brexit totally and his influence in other areas diminished... what's the Luxembourgish for loose cannon?
    Get a grip. The reaction from most sane Britons, never mind your average Eurocrat, will be that if the more lunatic Leavers can't spot a joke, that's their problem not his.
    Besides, who cares if Junckers loses influence? That is his problem.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,030
    edited May 2017

    Trump to meet Tusk and Juncker in Brussels before UK election.

    https://twitter.com/afp/status/860435845563678721

    Provided he does not have to stay back to get Trumpcare through the Senate but he is only meeting them after meeting May, Merkel, Trudeau, Abe, Xi, Turnbull, the PM of Denmark, the PM of Ireland,the King of Jordan and the President of Argentina so they were not exactly top of the list
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    JonWC said:

    LDs seem to be freefall in Devon.. which was not expected either. The former MP has just lost his seat in Teignmouth.

    Unpleasant for him, but if he's standing again as LD PPC in the GE he may be the next MP.

    Good afternoon, everyone.
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    Con have gained Swadlincote South (Derbys) - isn't that a former mining town?

    It is indeed. Never been an easy area for the Conservatives, but now? Con gain Bootle??? :)
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,298
    edited May 2017
    LDs hold all six seats in Eastbourne (despite the PM's visit)
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Trump to meet Tusk and Juncker in Brussels before UK election.

    https://twitter.com/afp/status/860435845563678721

    Knock sense into them
    The fascist isn't our friend.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,045

    Con have gained Swadlincote South (Derbys) - isn't that a former mining town?

    Yep. The final colliery closed in the early 1990s - ?1994?. Rawdon.

    It was also well known for its fireclays, which was quite a big business. I think that's also gone now. I used to know the town well, but haven't been back there in 20-odd years.

    A town that really should have its railway line reopened to passengers, but problems elsewhere apparently preclude it. :(
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    GarzaGarza Posts: 45

    Con have gained Swadlincote South (Derbys) - isn't that a former mining town?

    Yep pretty much.
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    BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391

    SeanT said:

    Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.

    Someone needs to hook him off

    Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
    Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
    What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
    It very much is the EU problem - no deal no money for them
    The money is small change in the context of the overall size of the EU's economies. Yes, there would be arguments about where to find the gap, but a deal would be struck.

    Leavers need to stop hyperventilating every time Jean-Claude Juncker picks up his pen to fill in a crossword clue.
    He is very toxic but then I expect a remainer to defend anything to do with the wonderful EU
    I'm not a fan of him at all. I think he should have resigned last summer. But I can recognise hysteria when I see it and far too many Leavers are descending into it so far as he is concerned.
    Look, Alastair, stop calling everyone who you disagree with a 'Leaver'. You have no idea how I voted and seem unwilling to engage in debate, falling back on sneering about 'hysteria'. As Tusk would say: Stop being emotional.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,709
    If I was a pollster I would be rather nervous at any data pointing Labour north of 25pts at the moment....
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266
    Garza said:

    Con have gained Swadlincote South (Derbys) - isn't that a former mining town?

    Yep pretty much.
    'Miners for May'
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,298
    Glasgow City Council in 2003

    LAB 71
    SNP 3
    LD 3
    CON 1
    SSP 1
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    SeanT said:
    Basically it's Con taking the entire unionist vote. Labour and LD to get squeezed out everywhere they aren't strong (so, everywhere)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,030
    Scottish Tories have gained their first ever councillor in the Western Isles
    https://mobile.twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/860452990758637568
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    SeanT said:

    Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.

    Someone needs to hook him off

    Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
    Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
    What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
    It very much is the EU problem - no deal no money for them
    The money is small change in the context of the overall size of the EU's economies. Yes, there would be arguments about where to find the gap, but a deal would be struck.

    Leavers need to stop hyperventilating every time Jean-Claude Juncker picks up his pen to fill in a crossword clue.
    He is very toxic but then I expect a remainer to defend anything to do with the wonderful EU
    I'm not a fan of him at all. I think he should have resigned last summer. But I can recognise hysteria when I see it and far too many Leavers are descending into it so far as he is concerned.
    Look, Alastair, stop calling everyone who you disagree with a 'Leaver'. You have no idea how I voted and seem unwilling to engage in debate, falling back on sneering about 'hysteria'. As Tusk would say: Stop being emotional.
    I'm very sorry. At this sensitive time I should have more consideration of your feelings. We should get behind Theresa May against the enemy that is the EU. We shall fight them in the comedy clubs. We shall fight them in the jazz clubs. We shall never surrender.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Cardiff final tally

    LAB 40 (-6)
    CON 20 (+13)
    LD 11 (-5)
    PC 3 (+1)
    IND 1 (-2)
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    IanB2 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Feeling a bit nauseous now about my LibDem constituency bets.

    Now expecting to lose the 25/1 on Olney in Richmond Park - and also the nets on Bath going Yellow. They were still both excellent value bets, mind, and hedged my bullish Tory constituency bets...
    You must be able to hedge the 25/1 on the seat itself to guarantee a profit?
    It's at 29-1 on betfair exchange when I checked....
    On sportsbook the Tories are at 10/11. A small bet on them and you can't lose overall.
    Embarrassingly I think I looked at labour odds!
    Ah well... Greed worked out with the lib dem bet on RP the first time... So should still be well up either way.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,709

    SeanT said:

    Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.

    Someone needs to hook him off

    Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
    Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
    What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
    It very much is the EU problem - no deal no money for them
    The money is small change in the context of the overall size of the EU's economies. Yes, there would be arguments about where to find the gap, but a deal would be struck.

    Leavers need to stop hyperventilating every time Jean-Claude Juncker picks up his pen to fill in a crossword clue.
    He is very toxic but then I expect a remainer to defend anything to do with the wonderful EU
    I'm not a fan of him at all. I think he should have resigned last summer. But I can recognise hysteria when I see it and far too many Leavers are descending into it so far as he is concerned.
    Look, Alastair, stop calling everyone who you disagree with a 'Leaver'. You have no idea how I voted and seem unwilling to engage in debate, falling back on sneering about 'hysteria'. As Tusk would say: Stop being emotional.
    He's well on the way to elvating anyone associated with the EU to sainthood.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,030
    SeanT said:
    The Western Isles had an SNP NO even pre 2015 so big news for Tories there
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Looks like Tories have taken 4 seats so far of Lab in Derbyshire.

    I make it 8 so far!
    Correction... 9!
    I'm going off the local newspaper website, so a bit behind maybe. Is there a live feed from actual council?
    Yep, just on their website!
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    JonWCJonWC Posts: 285
    AnneJGP said:

    JonWC said:

    LDs seem to be freefall in Devon.. which was not expected either. The former MP has just lost his seat in Teignmouth.

    Unpleasant for him, but if he's standing again as LD PPC in the GE he may be the next MP.

    Good afternoon, everyone.
    AnneJGP said:

    JonWC said:

    LDs seem to be freefall in Devon.. which was not expected either. The former MP has just lost his seat in Teignmouth.

    Unpleasant for him, but if he's standing again as LD PPC in the GE he may be the next MP.

    Good afternoon, everyone.
    Seems kind of unlikely if he cannot personally win in a good bit though?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    And two Tory gains in Hucknall, by 74 and 398. Hucknall had 3 Labour seats but was split into two 1-member divisions, so that's two and a half Tory gains, so to speak.

    I know Hucknall well - I remember leafleting and canvassing it when a teenager in the famous 1977 Ashfield by-election there.... 20.8% swing.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Grace_E_OKeeffe: Lower Deeside WON by @ScotTories Phillip Bell!! #council17
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980
    Derbyshire - LAB -13, CON +12, LD+1 :D
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,709

    SeanT said:
    Basically it's Con taking the entire unionist vote. Labour and LD to get squeezed out everywhere they aren't strong (so, everywhere)
    Exactly right. If you're a unionist (and remember that was 55% of the electorate in 2014), then you're going to be looking at the tories as being potentially the only game in town. Supported by Super Ruth.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    SeanT said:

    Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.

    Someone needs to hook him off

    Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
    Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
    What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
    It very much is the EU problem - no deal no money for them
    The money is small change in the context of the overall size of the EU's economies. Yes, there would be arguments about where to find the gap, but a deal would be struck.

    Leavers need to stop hyperventilating every time Jean-Claude Juncker picks up his pen to fill in a crossword clue.
    He is very toxic but then I expect a remainer to defend anything to do with the wonderful EU
    I'm not a fan of him at all. I think he should have resigned last summer. But I can recognise hysteria when I see it and far too many Leavers are descending into it so far as he is concerned.
    Look, Alastair, stop calling everyone who you disagree with a 'Leaver'. You have no idea how I voted and seem unwilling to engage in debate, falling back on sneering about 'hysteria'. As Tusk would say: Stop being emotional.
    He's well on the way to elvating anyone associated with the EU to sainthood.
    You missed the bit where I said that I thought that he should have resigned and that I'm not a fan of him at all. But apart from that, carry on.
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    BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391

    SeanT said:

    Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.

    Someone needs to hook him off

    Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
    Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
    What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
    It very much is the EU problem - no deal no money for them
    The money is small change in the context of the overall size of the EU's economies. Yes, there would be arguments about where to find the gap, but a deal would be struck.

    Leavers need to stop hyperventilating every time Jean-Claude Juncker picks up his pen to fill in a crossword clue.
    He is very toxic but then I expect a remainer to defend anything to do with the wonderful EU
    I'm not a fan of him at all. I think he should have resigned last summer. But I can recognise hysteria when I see it and far too many Leavers are descending into it so far as he is concerned.
    Look, Alastair, stop calling everyone who you disagree with a 'Leaver'. You have no idea how I voted and seem unwilling to engage in debate, falling back on sneering about 'hysteria'. As Tusk would say: Stop being emotional.
    I'm very sorry. At this sensitive time I should have more consideration of your feelings. We should get behind Theresa May against the enemy that is the EU. We shall fight them in the comedy clubs. We shall fight them in the jazz clubs. We shall never surrender.
    Sad.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,310

    SeanT said:

    Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.

    Someone needs to hook him off

    Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
    Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
    What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
    He owes his position to the EU27 heads of government. If he keeps on like this, he will be sidelined from Brexit totally and his influence in other areas diminished... what's the Luxembourgish for loose cannon?
    Get a grip. The reaction from most sane Britons, never mind your average Eurocrat, will be that if the more lunatic Leavers can't spot a joke, that's their problem not his.
    Besides, who cares if Junckers loses influence? That is his problem.
    The eurosceptic Tory Right seem more obsessed with obscure EU functionaries now that we've left than they ever were when we were a member. Shame - if they'd had paid that much attention at the time, perhaps we could have shaped the EU to be much more to our liking.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,030

    SeanT said:
    Basically it's Con taking the entire unionist vote. Labour and LD to get squeezed out everywhere they aren't strong (so, everywhere)
    Exactly right. If you're a unionist (and remember that was 55% of the electorate in 2014), then you're going to be looking at the tories as being potentially the only game in town. Supported by Super Ruth.
    The LDs have made gains in Edinburgh
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,298
    Blaenau Gwent Council result - IND GAIN FROM LAB:

    Independent 28 (+19)
    Labour 13 (−20)
    Plaid Cymru 1(+1)
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    from an SNP Zoomer on my timeline...

    @rosscolquhoun: Scottish Labour rose wilts
    *Jug of fresh water labelled 'independence' is in touching distance*

    What's it to be?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082
    The FT ponders whether a committed Remain government could possibly do more to sabotage Brexit than what May is doing.

    https://www.ft.com/content/ea5c01f1-3aca-3517-a42b-4cfe439243f3
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    I pointed out a few weeks ago the most outrageous SCon gain could be Na_h Eileanan an Iar.

    Not likely, but not impossible either.
This discussion has been closed.