Darlington result from the Tees Valley mayoral race being interpreted as meaning Labour is likely to lose Darlington to the Conservatives.
Darlington is 34th of the Conservative target list, with a Labour majority of about 7.7% and over 5,000 Ukip voters available. If they managed to win everything up to and including Darlington, that alone would be enough to bump their majority up to about 80 (though before taking into account any possible losses.)
In other news, seat count so far:
Con +502 Lab -332 LD -30 SNP -21 PC +35 Ukip -139 Green +3
The Tories have now easily surpassed Stephen Fisher's prediction (see previous thread,) and Labour are also doing even worse than predicted. Not sure how many results left to come, but it's a pretty dramatic result.
@Mike_Blackley: John Curtice says it looks like a 'disappointing' result for SNP compared to expectations. Unlikely to pass 40%.
That pretty much kills off indyref2. The SNP needed momentum, and the sense of an angry nation demanding a vote.
If this is repeated at the GE in june, TMay will say NO MANDATE, and deny a vote, and force the Nats to win another vote at Holyrood in 2021.
Which might be hard for Sturgeon, given her gentle decline at the moment.
She might have to resign as leader if the Tories do as well in Scotland as these local results indicate.
I can't see that. She's the best they've got.
There's a pathetic bunch of Nats and Labourites on the BBC mewling and complaining that TMay has been so mean and devious, and called an election when they are weak. Because, of course, they would never do that.
@Mike_Blackley: John Curtice says it looks like a 'disappointing' result for SNP compared to expectations. Unlikely to pass 40%.
That pretty much kills off indyref2. The SNP needed momentum, and the sense of an angry nation demanding a vote.
If this is repeated at the GE in june, TMay will say NO MANDATE, and deny a vote, and force the Nats to win another vote at Holyrood in 2021.
Which might be hard for Sturgeon, given her gentle decline at the moment.
She might have to resign as leader if the Tories do as well in Scotland as these local results indicate.
The Greens have done well in these elections, almost certainly taking votes off the SNP. These votes will likely switch back to the SNP in the FPTP Westminster election.
So I reckon it's Con GAIN Suffolk, Con hold Northants and Devon, Lab hold Doncaster, probably edge Durham, and the Tories will be pushing for a majority in Cornwall but probably fall short.
In Cornwall, they're 21/65 so far (21 LD, 15 Ind, 5 Lab, 3 MK). Just over halfway through the ridiculously large number of seats. They'll be reasonably pleased, and heading to largest party status, but really hard to take control in a council where Indies are a factor and several parties are active in pockets, and seems unlikely.
N.B. UKIP got 15% and 6 seats last time, and are running at 1% this time with half declared. That will be particularly cheering for the blues, although I am hearing the LDs may be looking a bit better in North Cornwall, and St Ives is a wildcard due to Andrew George. So I'd not colour in the map quite yet for June.
I think the Tories will do it in the West Midlands, based on that high turnout in Solihull.
Eh? The Soilihull votes are already in the first round totals.
I agree with your forecast. But not because of Solihull.
I was talking about the WM election as a whole, not the second round. Labour needed a higher turnout in their areas in both rounds. They only got a lead of 20,000 votes in Birmingham on the first round which is terrible for them.
Karen Bradley talking about problems in House of Lords - so why won't May appoint a stack more Con Peers?
Because the size of the HoL is already a world-class joke. Come to think of it, perhaps she should create 250 new peers in an ironic kind of spirit, to make it so silly that reform is inevitable.
Anyone got an idea of Percentage of first preference votes in Scotland yet?
Genuine question - how do you allow in this for a differing number of candidates in the wards? Say the SNP have an average of 1.4 candidates per ward and SCON have 1.2, won't that distort the simple total % result?
Tory GM mayor candidate humiliated by Burnham in his own Trafford patch which could be one of the big shocks of these elections.
That's a good result for Labour in the Trafford part of the patch. But Burnham winning the mayoralty is hardly hold-the-front-page, and I don't think any of the Trafford Parliamentary seats are seriously competitive.
Darlington result from the Tees Valley mayoral race being interpreted as meaning Labour is likely to lose Darlington to the Conservatives.
Darlington is 34th of the Conservative target list, with a Labour majority of about 7.7% and over 5,000 Ukip voters available. If they managed to win everything up to and including Darlington, that alone would be enough to bump their majority up to about 80 (though before taking into account any possible losses.)
In other news, seat count so far:
Con +502 Lab -332 LD -30 SNP -21 PC +35 Ukip -139 Green +3
The Tories have now easily surpassed Stephen Fisher's prediction (see previous thread,) and Labour are also doing even worse than predicted. Not sure how many results left to come, but it's a pretty dramatic result.
Anyone got an idea of Percentage of first preference votes in Scotland yet?
Genuine question - how do you allow in this for a differing number of candidates in the wards? Say the SNP have an average of 1.4 candidates per ward and SCON have 1.2, won't that distort the simple total % result?
There are two ways of doing it: either highest vote method or average vote method.
Shares of the vote in Scotland would be great if anyone has them. Absolutely delighted that the SNP are currently down 18 councillors with all their gains against Labour wiped out by losses to the Tories and just a little bit more.
With 28 out of 32 councils in the Tories have 233 councillors which on a pro rata basis including the large number of independents is equivalent to 24% of the vote. I suspect that they have done slightly better than that since many of the independents have very, very small wards (in terms of population) in the far north.
On the same basis the SNP are sitting just a tenth over 33%.
I suspect that Labour will be content with their results in Scotland given previous expectations. Whilst they are well down on 2012 , they have not collapsed - and I rather fancy their chances of taking East Lotian from the SNP next month.
I suspect that Labour will be content with its results in Scotland given previous expectations. Whilst they are well down on 2012 , they have not collapsed - and I rather fancy their chances of taking East Lotian from the SNP next month.
I tend to agree. Really bad but could have been so much worse. Professor Fisher may have got some things right but his forecast of 6% for SLAB is just miles off.
Edit, in fact on the same basis as I set out below they are on exactly 18% which is exactly what I forecast for them. As with the Tories and the SNP their actual percentage may be 1-2% better than that.
I suspect that Labour will be content with its results in Scotland given previous expectations. Whilst they are well down on 2012 , they have not collapsed - and I rather fancy their chances of taking East Lotian from the SNP next month.
I tend to agree. Really bad but could have been so much worse. Professor Fisher may have got some things right but his forecast of 6% for SLAB is just miles off.
I'm starting to get a better handle of both differential turnout and what has happened since 2007 in terms of where voters have come and gone to.
Comments
Darlington is 34th of the Conservative target list, with a Labour majority of about 7.7% and over 5,000 Ukip voters available. If they managed to win everything up to and including Darlington, that alone would be enough to bump their majority up to about 80 (though before taking into account any possible losses.)
In other news, seat count so far:
Con +502
Lab -332
LD -30
SNP -21
PC +35
Ukip -139
Green +3
The Tories have now easily surpassed Stephen Fisher's prediction (see previous thread,) and Labour are also doing even worse than predicted. Not sure how many results left to come, but it's a pretty dramatic result.
Ah! the Great 2019 Brexit Backlash! I remember it well.
I'd just planted my runner beans, and ..........
NEW THREAD
Absolutely delighted that the SNP are currently down 18 councillors with all their gains against Labour wiped out by losses to the Tories and just a little bit more.
With 28 out of 32 councils in the Tories have 233 councillors which on a pro rata basis including the large number of independents is equivalent to 24% of the vote. I suspect that they have done slightly better than that since many of the independents have very, very small wards (in terms of population) in the far north.
On the same basis the SNP are sitting just a tenth over 33%.
Edit, in fact on the same basis as I set out below they are on exactly 18% which is exactly what I forecast for them. As with the Tories and the SNP their actual percentage may be 1-2% better than that.