What's the chance of Conservative majority control of Notts? With 30 seats to declare they seem to be 11 short, and looking at the map only of previous seats, it looks like at least 4 or 5 of the remaining seats were Tory previously.
Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.
Someone needs to hook him off
Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
He owes his position to the EU27 heads of government. If he keeps on like this, he will be sidelined from Brexit totally and his influence in other areas diminished... what's the Luxembourgish for loose cannon?
Get a grip. The reaction from most sane Britons, never mind your average Eurocrat, will be that if the more lunatic Leavers can't spot a joke, that's their problem not his.
Besides, who cares if Junckers loses influence? That is his problem.
The eurosceptic Tory Right seem more obsessed with obscure EU functionaries now that we've left than they ever were when we were a member. Shame - if they'd had paid that much attention at the time, perhaps we could have shaped the EU to be much more to our liking.
Maybe if the rest of the EU had been paying more attention when David Cameron warned them of Juncker's unsuitability for the job, we might not have had Brexit at all.
If the SNP are seen to be losing momentum and a referendum clearly goes off the table, what's the likelihood of their vote receding dramatically in UKIP style, but to 20% rather than 4% ?
Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.
Someone needs to hook him off
Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
He owes his position to the EU27 heads of government. If he keeps on like this, he will be sidelined from Brexit totally and his influence in other areas diminished... what's the Luxembourgish for loose cannon?
Get a grip. The reaction from most sane Britons, never mind your average Eurocrat, will be that if the more lunatic Leavers can't spot a joke, that's their problem not his.
Besides, who cares if Junckers loses influence? That is his problem.
The eurosceptic Tory Right seem more obsessed with obscure EU functionaries now that we've left than they ever were when we were a member. Shame - if they'd had paid that much attention at the time, perhaps we could have shaped the EU to be much more to our liking.
It will be. There'll be a whacking big hole in the top left corner where we used to be.
I don't think she's sabotaging it in the sense that it will prevent the Glorious Leaving. It is sabotage in the sense that it's obviously going to be a five star, fur lined, ocean going fuck up for both sides.
Over the last few years the big picture (apart from the rise of the SNP) seems to be the move of WWC first from Labour to UKIP, and now from UKIP to the Tories explaining the widening gap between Con and Lab.
The move from Lab to UKIP predates Corbyn, and the latest move from UKIP to Con seems to have little to do with Corbyn and more to do with the Tories transforming into UKIP.
Conclusion: The Labour problem has very little to do with Corbyn. They would have had it under any leader. Labour is two tribes and one tribe is defecting to the Tories. The only solution for Labour is to become Tory-lite. Come back Tony Blair?
Ah, there's a third Hucknall seat (West) and the Tories won that too. So 3 gains there and 1 in Retford. Before today scores were Lab 34, Con 21, LDs 8, Indies 3. Currently Con +4, Lab -3, LDs -1. Not sure what other marginals are still to come - the north of the county is a mystery to me.
Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.
Someone needs to hook him off
Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
He owes his position to the EU27 heads of government. If he keeps on like this, he will be sidelined from Brexit totally and his influence in other areas diminished... what's the Luxembourgish for loose cannon?
Get a grip. The reaction from most sane Britons, never mind your average Eurocrat, will be that if the more lunatic Leavers can't spot a joke, that's their problem not his.
Besides, who cares if Junckers loses influence? That is his problem.
The eurosceptic Tory Right seem more obsessed with obscure EU functionaries now that we've left than they ever were when we were a member. Shame - if they'd had paid that much attention at the time, perhaps we could have shaped the EU to be much more to our liking.
It will be. There'll be a whacking big hole in the top left corner where we used to be.
Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.
Someone needs to hook him off
Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
He owes his position to the EU27 heads of government. If he keeps on like this, he will be sidelined from Brexit totally and his influence in other areas diminished... what's the Luxembourgish for loose cannon?
Get a grip. The reaction from most sane Britons, never mind your average Eurocrat, will be that if the more lunatic Leavers can't spot a joke, that's their problem not his.
Besides, who cares if Junckers loses influence? That is his problem.
The eurosceptic Tory Right seem more obsessed with obscure EU functionaries now that we've left than they ever were when we were a member. Shame - if they'd had paid that much attention at the time, perhaps we could have shaped the EU to be much more to our liking.
I voted remain and even then disliked Junckers. He is a buffoon and is the the President of the Commission - but to you he is obscure. You couldn't make it up
Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.
Someone needs to hook him off
Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.
Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.
What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.
He owes his position to the EU27 heads of government. If he keeps on like this, he will be sidelined from Brexit totally and his influence in other areas diminished... what's the Luxembourgish for loose cannon?
Get a grip. The reaction from most sane Britons, never mind your average Eurocrat, will be that if the more lunatic Leavers can't spot a joke, that's their problem not his.
Besides, who cares if Junckers loses influence? That is his problem.
The eurosceptic Tory Right seem more obsessed with obscure EU functionaries now that we've left than they ever were when we were a member. Shame - if they'd had paid that much attention at the time, perhaps we could have shaped the EU to be much more to our liking.
Being Out is going to be much more to my liking, cheers.
What's the chance of Conservative majority control of Notts? With 30 seats to declare they seem to be 11 short, and looking at the map only of previous seats, it looks like at least 4 or 5 of the remaining seats were Tory previously.
First Tory gain from Labour in Notts - Retford East by 37 votes. That eliminates the Labour majority (which was 1), though the Indies and LibDems have generally voted with Labour recently. Plenty of seats still to come.
Does that mean Con gain Bassetlaw in June? It's an area which ought to trend Tory now the mining is gone.
Grew up in the Retford East ward - quite m.class compared to some of Bassetlaw especially Worksop - so probably not a great guide for the general election. John Mann has a very solid personal vote too.
Over the last few years the big picture (apart from the rise of the SNP) seems to be the move of WWC first from Labour to UKIP, and now from UKIP to the Tories explaining the widening gap between Con and Lab.
The move from Lab to UKIP predates Corbyn, and the latest move from UKIP to Con seems to have little to do with Corbyn and more to do with the Tories transforming into UKIP.
Conclusion: The Labour problem has very little to do with Corbyn. They would have had it under any leader. Labour is two tribes and one tribe is defecting to the Tories. The only solution for Labour is to become Tory-lite. Come back Tony Blair?
David Miliband. Ready made and if it wasn't for the ambition of Ed (who many now wish was buried under his own stone) would nbe PM .....the Labour Party would be thriving ......the Tories would have split into two..... Ukip Tories and Tories and most important of all we'd still be in the EU.
Over the last few years the big picture (apart from the rise of the SNP) seems to be the move of WWC first from Labour to UKIP, and now from UKIP to the Tories explaining the widening gap between Con and Lab.
The move from Lab to UKIP predates Corbyn, and the latest move from UKIP to Con seems to have little to do with Corbyn and more to do with the Tories transforming into UKIP.
Conclusion: The Labour problem has very little to do with Corbyn. They would have had it under any leader. Labour is two tribes and one tribe is defecting to the Tories. The only solution for Labour is to become Tory-lite. Come back Tony Blair?
You may be forgetting that it is supporters of Mr Corbyn who have been advising all those loyal Labour voters that they are now "Tories"?
Durham results starting to come through - if there is one county where old-labour face UKIP-> Tory switchers then this is it. 126 councillors: 94 Labour. (so far 4/4)
Over the last few years the big picture (apart from the rise of the SNP) seems to be the move of WWC first from Labour to UKIP, and now from UKIP to the Tories explaining the widening gap between Con and Lab.
The move from Lab to UKIP predates Corbyn, and the latest move from UKIP to Con seems to have little to do with Corbyn and more to do with the Tories transforming into UKIP.
Conclusion: The Labour problem has very little to do with Corbyn. They would have had it under any leader. Labour is two tribes and one tribe is defecting to the Tories. The only solution for Labour is to become Tory-lite. Come back Tony Blair?
David Miliband. Ready made and if it wasn't for the ambition of Ed (who many now wish was buried under his own stone) would nbe PM .....the Labour Party would be thriving ......the Tories would have split into two..... Ukip Tories and Tories and most important of all we'd still be in the EU.
The structural problems Labour had under Gordon and Ed would still have bedevilled them. Ed and David were not exactly miles apart in political outlook, and I see their leadership of Labour having ended in broadly a similar manner.
David Miliband was not the answer then, and he isn't the answer now.
Over the last few years the big picture (apart from the rise of the SNP) seems to be the move of WWC first from Labour to UKIP, and now from UKIP to the Tories explaining the widening gap between Con and Lab.
The move from Lab to UKIP predates Corbyn, and the latest move from UKIP to Con seems to have little to do with Corbyn and more to do with the Tories transforming into UKIP.
Conclusion: The Labour problem has very little to do with Corbyn. They would have had it under any leader. Labour is two tribes and one tribe is defecting to the Tories. The only solution for Labour is to become Tory-lite. Come back Tony Blair?
EdM was an abysmal Labour leader and under him Scotland was lost, probably forever. But in 2015, the Labour GE vote went up in terms of votes and percentage. That is worth bearing in mind as we approach 8th June.
Shadow home secretary Diane Abbott has just repeated her claim that "We represent the six most anti-Brexit constituencies and the six most pro".
We've looked at this one before.
We reckon the best estimates available suggest that two of the six most pro-Remain constituencies have SNP MPs, while three of the six most pro-Leave constituencies have Conservative MPs.
Higher turnout in Trafford - might be expected to help Sean Anstee (whoi is from Partington and is a councillor in Altrincham). Also note higher turnout in boroughs with Tory seats. But probably not enough to deny Andy Burnham, I wouldn't have thought.
Edit - the above also good news for Jane Brophy (Lib Dem) who is also a councillor in Altrincham (well, Timperley, I think); and the high turnout in Stockport might also encourage the Lib Dems, a bit.
@brucerisk: Please can the #RubbishParty get #UKIPs obligatory seat on @bbcquestiontime now that they're 'no more'? Sally Cogley..in case you're asking.
Shadow home secretary Diane Abbott has just repeated her claim that "We represent the six most anti-Brexit constituencies and the six most pro".
We've looked at this one before.
We reckon the best estimates available suggest that two of the six most pro-Remain constituencies have SNP MPs, while three of the six most pro-Leave constituencies have Conservative MPs.
Turnout in Liverpool City region 26.1%. Turnout highest in Liverpool City Council area, at 28.6%. Not sure anything interesting or unexpected can be read into that.
I see Steven Woolfe (the UKIP brawling in European Parliament chap) has now endorsed Theresa:
I’ve got no choice – it would have to be Theresa May. The darker forces within Ukip ... have managed to rise ... and that just won’t work in the United Kingdom.
@faisalislam: And @sionSimon gains another 4K lead over @andy4wm in Wolverhampton -lead of 8000 now -if uniform, that'd be enough for Labour win. Close pic.twitter.com/p9tnt6GTFz
I am still too busy at work to keep up with this. Can someone of a neutral and unexcitable none Tory persuasion (e.g. Alastair) give me the OK/FUBAR level for Corbyn on a scale of 1-10. Cheers!
I see Steven Woolfe (the UKIP brawling in European Parliament chap) has now endorsed Theresa:
I’ve got no choice – it would have to be Theresa May. The darker forces within Ukip ... have managed to rise ... and that just won’t work in the United Kingdom.
Not really a surprise - wasn't that what the punch-up was about in the first place?
Nick, looks like your pre-election assessment was pretty spot-on (Labour voters still voting Labour but LOTS of UKIP voters voting Tory). Very much enjoying the detailed analysis from my old stamping ground - thanks.
Higher turnout in Trafford - might be expected to help Sean Anstee (whoi is from Partington and is a councillor in Altrincham). Also note higher turnout in boroughs with Tory seats. But probably not enough to deny Andy Burnham, I wouldn't have thought.
Edit - the above also good news for Jane Brophy (Lib Dem) who is also a councillor in Altrincham (well, Timperley, I think); and the high turnout in Stockport might also encourage the Lib Dems, a bit.
I was told the Tory candidate is very impressive. Mid 30's from Hale gay and married to his younger boyfriend. Do you know of him?
Easy Labour win (700 margin) in Mansfield West despite earlier rumours. Tories pick up one in Sutton. I need to sign off now for work, but my best guress is NOM in Notts, Labour probably still largest party.
2015 UKIP voters shaped that year’s election and are set to play a major role this this year’s campaign. But while some former Labour and Lib Dem supporters have used the party as a “gateway drug” to back the Conservatives, be wary of overstating its significance – many more have jumped straight to the Tories.
3.6% voted Labour in 2010, now with the Tories v 0.5% voted Labour in 2010, UKIP in 2015 and now with the Tories
Over the last few years the big picture (apart from the rise of the SNP) seems to be the move of WWC first from Labour to UKIP, and now from UKIP to the Tories explaining the widening gap between Con and Lab.
The move from Lab to UKIP predates Corbyn, and the latest move from UKIP to Con seems to have little to do with Corbyn and more to do with the Tories transforming into UKIP.
Conclusion: The Labour problem has very little to do with Corbyn. They would have had it under any leader. Labour is two tribes and one tribe is defecting to the Tories. The only solution for Labour is to become Tory-lite. Come back Tony Blair?
Centre ground votes have been leaving Labour since Blair stepped down, but this had been hidden by the rise of UKIP. Now it's clear Labour have lost both centre ground and WWC
Easy Labour win (700 margin) in Mansfield West despite earlier rumours. Tories pick up one in Sutton. I need to sign off now for work, but my best guress is NOM in Notts, Labour probably still largest party.
Eh? Tories are already ahead by so much Labour cannot catch up.
Easy Labour win (700 margin) in Mansfield West despite earlier rumours. Tories pick up one in Sutton. I need to sign off now for work, but my best guress is NOM in Notts, Labour probably still largest party.
Looks unlikely Nick. Now mathematically impossible for Lab to be largest party. 14 still to declare and you're 18 seats behind the Tories.
Higher turnout in Trafford - might be expected to help Sean Anstee (whoi is from Partington and is a councillor in Altrincham). Also note higher turnout in boroughs with Tory seats. But probably not enough to deny Andy Burnham, I wouldn't have thought.
Edit - the above also good news for Jane Brophy (Lib Dem) who is also a councillor in Altrincham (well, Timperley, I think); and the high turnout in Stockport might also encourage the Lib Dems, a bit.
I was told the Tory candidate is very impressive. Mid 30's from Hale gay and married to his younger boyfriend. Do you know of him?
Yes, that's right - also of interest that while he lives in (ultra-posh) Hale, he grew up in (rough as old boots) Partington. Leader of the Conservative group on Trafford Council at an absurdly young age. Also - importantly for a Tory in Greater Manchester - quite effective in working with his (usually Labour) counterparts in other boroughs. Though that is also testament to the large number of pragmatic, not-particularly-partisan Labour politicians that Greater Manchester also has. (I'm not convinced Andy Burnham falls into this category - I'd have much preferred Labour to select someone like Jim McMahon with local politics experience.)
Just home from work, catching up with the election news on the Beeb.
Observations:
Peter Kellner suggesting that this rivals 1982 (in the midst of the Falklands War) as the best Conservative local government election performance since detailed records began to be kept in the Seventies.
Kellner also suggested that, if we tot up the combined vote for all the left-leaning parties and the combined vote for all the right-leaning parties, a small but measurable right-to-left swing is observable. The problem for the left, of course, is that their vote is much more divided.
Saw latest results from Norfolk - Liberal Democrats gaining vote share but losing councillors, presumably because they are being swamped by a huge Ukip to Con swing. Ill omens there for Norman Lamb.
Ukip dying everywhere. Have heard that they may finally have won a seat up in Burnley, so Ukip=0 not technically accurate, but I think it's going to be pretty close.
Just home from work, catching up with the election news on the Beeb.
Observations:
Peter Kellner suggesting that this rivals 1982 (in the midst of the Falklands War) as the best Conservative local government election performance since detailed records began to be kept in the Seventies.
Kellner also suggested that, if we tot up the combined vote for all the left-leaning parties and the combined vote for all the right-leaning parties, a small but measurable right-to-left swing is observable. The problem for the left, of course, is that their vote is much more divided.
Saw latest results from Norfolk - Liberal Democrats gaining vote share but losing councillors, presumably because they are being swamped by a huge Ukip to Con swing. Ill omens there for Norman Lamb.
Ukip dying everywhere. Have heard that they may finally have won a seat up in Burnley, so Ukip=0 not technically accurate, but I think it's going to be pretty close.
Comments
What's the chance of Conservative majority control of Notts? With 30 seats to declare they seem to be 11 short, and looking at the map only of previous seats, it looks like at least 4 or 5 of the remaining seats were Tory previously.
Not this time round, but next time.
South Oxhey was won by the BNP about 10 years ago iirc.
The move from Lab to UKIP predates Corbyn, and the latest move from UKIP to Con seems to have little to do with Corbyn and more to do with the Tories transforming into UKIP.
Conclusion: The Labour problem has very little to do with Corbyn. They would have had it under any leader. Labour is two tribes and one tribe is defecting to the Tories. The only solution for Labour is to become Tory-lite. Come back Tony Blair?
The Tories problem is - as far as I can tell - the incumbent MP is popular.
Lisa Clarke - Labour - 1,903
John Doddy - Conservative - 2,692
Tim Hallam - Liberal Democrats - 1,101
William Longdon - Conservative - 2,179
Richard MacRae - Independent - 1,530
John McGrath - Labour - 2,034
Nina Tait-Peterson - UKIP - 286
Daniel Stowell - UKIP - 216
Jacky Williams - Liberal Democrats - 1,147
John Doddy, Conservative has retained his seat, and William Longdon also Conservative has won the seat.
Jacky Williams, Lib Dem has lost her seat.
Read more at http://www.nottinghampost.com/live-updates-from-the-county-council-elections-in-nottinghamshire/story-30313347-detail/story.html#d0tPhBEtKri12SGw.99
David Miliband was not the answer then, and he isn't the answer now.
Con +13%
LibDem + 3%
Green + 1%
Lab -2%
UKIP -15%
The Labour -2% stands out in terms of interpreting the locals v the polls? Labour NEV in 2013 was 29%.
Scott Arthur (Lab)
Phil Doggart (Con)
Jason Rust (Con)
Turnout – 60.2%
#edincount
Pretty please
We've looked at this one before.
We reckon the best estimates available suggest that two of the six most pro-Remain constituencies have SNP MPs, while three of the six most pro-Leave constituencies have Conservative MPs.
|"The turnout in the Greater Manchester Mayoral election was 28.9%, significantly higher than many people had been predicting.
The breakdown of turnout by borough was:
Bolton 29.3%
Bury 32.2%
Manchester 28.4%
Oldham 25.8%
Rochdale 25.2%
Salford 25.1%
Stockport 32.2%
Tameside 26%
Trafford 38.4%
Wigan 27.3%"
Higher turnout in Trafford - might be expected to help Sean Anstee (whoi is from Partington and is a councillor in Altrincham). Also note higher turnout in boroughs with Tory seats. But probably not enough to deny Andy Burnham, I wouldn't have thought.
Edit - the above also good news for Jane Brophy (Lib Dem) who is also a councillor in Altrincham (well, Timperley, I think); and the high turnout in Stockport might also encourage the Lib Dems, a bit.
Labour now unable to retain control of Notts County Council.
Denis Dixon (SNP)
Catherine Fullerton (SNP)
Ashley Graczyk (Con)
Donald Wilson (Lab)
Turnout 39.8%
I’ve got no choice – it would have to be Theresa May. The darker forces within Ukip ... have managed to rise ... and that just won’t work in the United Kingdom.
https://www.wmcaelects.co.uk/results/
http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/councilresults2017
In Almond the LD candidate got a staggering 43% of 1st Pref the vote, up a little bit on the 16% the Lib Dem got in 2012
2015 UKIP voters shaped that year’s election and are set to play a major role this this year’s campaign. But while some former Labour and Lib Dem supporters have used the party as a “gateway drug” to back the Conservatives, be wary of overstating its significance – many more have jumped straight to the Tories.
3.6% voted Labour in 2010, now with the Tories v
0.5% voted Labour in 2010, UKIP in 2015 and now with the Tories
http://www.nottinghamshire.gov.uk/electionresults/2017
Tory: 31
Labour: 13
14 seats to announce.
Walsall
Sion Simon 16725
John Lewis 23694
Observations:
Peter Kellner suggesting that this rivals 1982 (in the midst of the Falklands War) as the best Conservative local government election performance since detailed records began to be kept in the Seventies.
Kellner also suggested that, if we tot up the combined vote for all the left-leaning parties and the combined vote for all the right-leaning parties, a small but measurable right-to-left swing is observable. The problem for the left, of course, is that their vote is much more divided.
Saw latest results from Norfolk - Liberal Democrats gaining vote share but losing councillors, presumably because they are being swamped by a huge Ukip to Con swing. Ill omens there for Norman Lamb.
Ukip dying everywhere. Have heard that they may finally have won a seat up in Burnley, so Ukip=0 not technically accurate, but I think it's going to be pretty close.
Conservatives 40,278 to Labour's 39,797.
Lib Dems on 12,550
UKIP on 9,475
Thick in the arm, thick in the head
On the plus side, proof Corbyn needs to go!
Perhaps a coalition of the 'we insist the trams must go ahead' parties?