Bit daft of news networks to be live at the Liverpool mayoral count (where the result has never been in doubt) and miss the big story in the Tees Valley (which is obviously a far more marginal area).
Also, Farron spinning like a Jenny!
Yeah, but who the **** wants to go to Middlesbrough? It's a bit far away for the journos and it makes Liverpool look positively delightful.
Twitter reveals that a Scottish Conservative candidate has won a seat representing Ravenscraig - former home of the steel plant killed off by the Great Satan with her Handbag of Doom.
It would appear that the electoral advantage of screaming "Evil Tories!" is at last beginning to wane up North.
Also posted upthread, but yes, remarkable
Missed that, flicking between several tabs. Sorry :-)
So far Kent CC has six Liberal Democrat and one "Liberal Democrat Focus Team" councillors elected.
What's the difference?
Parties have a number of descriptions listed with the Electoral Commission that can be used by candidates on the ballot paper. There are some Lib Dems who (wrongly I think) believe "Focus" is a strong enough brand to make it worth putting on the ballot paper.
There's no formal difference beyond the description though - it's not like the Co-operative Party which stands joint candidates with Labour but is actually a separate organisation (albeit closely linked).
At the 1983 locals, Labour's projected share was 34.5%. They got 28.3% at the GE 4 weeks later.
But there was no expectation of a general election when people voted in 1983 - unlike 1987.
If the higher Labour vote was because of personal votes for local councillors (which are almost always more significant than personal votes for MPs), it wouldn't make any difference whether people knew a general election was coming or not.
Yes - but Tory councillors have personal votes too!
However hazy on the details, the groups had grasped the tenor of the leaks. Few found this very alarming, seeing it either as a negotiating tactic, or an expression of Europe’s fear of the future without Britain and (more to the point) its money: “They’re all frightened, aren’t they. They’ve got the French election coming up, and if Marine Le Pen gets in, oh my God. They’ll take France out, and that will be the end of the EU. So I think they’re all shit scared. Excuse that, sorry.” Far from seeing the episode as a told-you-so moment, many of those who had voted to stay in the EU were unimpressed: “I understand the logic of why we need to remain, but now they’re coming over and threatening us in our own territory.”
The Liberal Democrat 18% is very encouraging for the General election. There are 5 weeks to go (5 X a long time)
In that time Labour will continue to collapse - their candidates denouncing JC will not help.
The Tories will continue to ask for a blank cheque, the Liberals will look like the only alternative and should pick up support in winnable seats.
The Liberal Democrats always outperform in local elections.
Their impact on June 8th is likely to be very modest indeed.
True, but I slightly struggle with how to interpret these results compared with most local elections. They have been swamped with coverage of the national picture, and in the places that matter with GE campaigning. I agree the "true" LD figure is probably lower, but my pure intuition would be 14%-ish.
There aren't many close equivalents. The 1983 and 1987 elections were hot on the heels of locals, but weren't actually called until after they had concluded I think. In the former, the Alliance outperformed their local result by a few %, and in the latter underperformed by a similar amount. But, as I say, I think the comparison is imperfect.
The LibDems added 7% to their 2013 local election performance, so the logical thing would be to add 7 to their 2013 opinion poll ratings. I haven't checked but guess these would have been down in the 7-8% range, which gives a projected VI for the General of 14-15%, which looks credible.
No - that 7% increase was compared with 2015, not 2013. According to Wikipedia the 2013 figure was 14%, so an increase of only 4 points.
So add the 7 to 2015 polls/GE vote, which gives the same answer.
BBC announces projected national share of the vote:
Con 38% (+3) Lab 27% (-2) LD 18% (+7) Ukip 5% (-8) Other 12% (0)
Changes since 2015.
1983: Con 39 Lab 36 All 20
1987: Con 38 Lab 32 All 27
That's not as extreme as I would have expected, with the exception off UKIP of course, i.e Tories not as good as it looked earlier, Labour not as bad, Libdems actually up the most of any party and 18% not bad at all.
The PNV on the locals, Baxtered, gives a Tory majority of.... 22.
Which would be pretty disastrous for TMay. An election that barely changed anything.
Clearly I reckon she will do better than that, but a moment of warning for Tories.
Looking at the Leics votes (classic middle England) the most WWC areas of the county (Loughborough, Coalville, and Braunstone) went Lab, with the LDs doing best in the middle market areas like Wigston, Oadby, Harborough, and Hinckley. Tories in the Leafier and more rural bits, but also newer housing, Melton and Charnwood.
So far Kent CC has six Liberal Democrat and one "Liberal Democrat Focus Team" councillors elected.
What's the difference?
Parties have a number of descriptions listed with the Electoral Commission that can be used by candidates on the ballot paper. There are some Lib Dems who (wrongly I think) believe "Focus" is a strong enough brand to make it worth putting on the ballot paper.
There's no formal difference beyond the description though - it's not like the Co-operative Party which stands joint candidates with Labour but is actually a separate organisation (albeit closely linked).
I've been an LDFT candidate six times and am a great believer that it makes a difference. Surveys regularly find that some 7% of voters make their decision whilst staring at the ballot paper, after all.
If you have a group elected on different labels, you just have to write a letter to the Chief Executive informing him or her that you all wish to be treated by the council as a political group.
When the tories were getting 30 odd % in the polls and elections,I mentioned to get back over 40% was to give a referendum and get out of the EU.
In other words,the EU was holding the tory vote back.
Spot on, politicos are reading far too much into what is happening: May isn't Cameron and Osborne who repelled so many natural conservatives. She is making it acceptable to vote tory again.
Don't understand. The swing to the Tories is much less than expected, but the Tories are at the high end of expectation in terms of seats won?
Better distribution? And will this extend to the GE?
An 11% lead for a governing party in local elections is huge. It's far better than the Conservatives achieved in 1983 or 1987.
Yes, it all depends how much this election mirrors the GE (being so close)
My guess is that lots of people who didn't vote last night will certainly come out in June - to make sure Corbyn loses.
I still predict a Tory maj or 80-100. Landslide, but not annihilation for Labour.
I think we are looking at 100+ landslide for May and Robertson losing his seat in Scotland
the runes for Corbyn are far worse than for Foot in 1983, and then Labour still had Scotland ( and Wales....). Got to be over 100+ for TM barring a Black Swan event
At the 1983 locals, Labour's projected share was 34.5%. They got 28.3% at the GE 4 weeks later.
But there was no expectation of a general election when people voted in 1983 - unlike 1987.
If the higher Labour vote was because of personal votes for local councillors (which are almost always more significant than personal votes for MPs), it wouldn't make any difference whether people knew a general election was coming or not.
Yes - but Tory councillors have personal votes too!
True, but in the current climate it seems less likely that there are significant numbers who say "I like my Tory councillor and will vote for her... but Corbyn's the man I want in Number 10", than "I like my Labour councillor so will vote for him... but I can't risk Corbyn next month".
I'm sure there are such people in the great Venn diagram of politics... it just instinctively feels more niche.
So far Kent CC has six Liberal Democrat and one "Liberal Democrat Focus Team" councillors elected.
What's the difference?
Parties have a number of descriptions listed with the Electoral Commission that can be used by candidates on the ballot paper. There are some Lib Dems who (wrongly I think) believe "Focus" is a strong enough brand to make it worth putting on the ballot paper.
There's no formal difference beyond the description though - it's not like the Co-operative Party which stands joint candidates with Labour but is actually a separate organisation (albeit closely linked).
Bit daft of news networks to be live at the Liverpool mayoral count (where the result has never been in doubt) and miss the big story in the Tees Valley (which is obviously a far more marginal area).
Also, Farron spinning like a Jenny!
Yeah, but who the **** wants to go to Middlesbrough? It's a bit far away for the journos and it makes Liverpool look positively delightful.
I have been to the greater Middlesbrough area loads of times - for some reason, it attracts loads of rare birds. Very good for rare waders, terns and gulls. (Possibly, it is just that the acid fumes floating above the city blind them.)
Bit daft of news networks to be live at the Liverpool mayoral count (where the result has never been in doubt) and miss the big story in the Tees Valley (which is obviously a far more marginal area).
Also, Farron spinning like a Jenny!
Yeah, but who the **** wants to go to Middlesbrough? It's a bit far away for the journos and it makes Liverpool look positively delightful.
I have been to the greater Middlesbrough area loads of times - for some reason, it attracts loads of rare birds. Very good for rare waders, terns and gulls. (Possibly, it is just that the acid fumes floating above the city blind them.)
The 7% vote share increase gives the LDs the vital nugget to claim momentum. It's clearly a disappointing night, but if the vote share increase had been minimal there would have been no good news at all to take home from this. The 7% gives them a lifeline, we can expect to hear a lot about it from Farron in the coming days.
True, but most of it will be wasted votes improving poor third places into better third places.
The absolute key in the LibDem target seats is winning back the anti-Tory tactical votes that put them over the top in so many Tory seats before 2015. The political environment looks hopeful for that, particularly if there is a fear about a big majority - whether they have the resources to make it happen is another matter.
Stephen Bush from the New Statesman has a theory about voters who don't want to vote for the winner. Up until 2010 voting Lib Dem was perfect for them, but when they actually got into power they switched to people like the Greens or UKIP. I may be mangling the details, but I think there is something to it.
It doesn't matter how many local election results there are, people still keep projecting them onto general election results. Happens every single time, without fail. I know Smithson did a piece debunking this, but it doesn't appear to make any difference - despite the substantial evidence that the two do not correlate.
Bit daft of news networks to be live at the Liverpool mayoral count (where the result has never been in doubt) and miss the big story in the Tees Valley (which is obviously a far more marginal area).
Also, Farron spinning like a Jenny!
Yeah, but who the **** wants to go to Middlesbrough? It's a bit far away for the journos and it makes Liverpool look positively delightful.
I have been to the greater Middlesbrough area loads of times - for some reason, it attracts loads of rare birds. Very good for rare waders, terns and gulls. (Possibly, it is just that the acid fumes floating above the city blind them.)
Seal sands?
No seals. No sand.
Seals are back there (assuming you visit when the tide is right). Its mudflaps though so not sandy....
When the tories were getting 30 odd % in the polls and elections,I mentioned to get back over 40% was to give a referendum and get out of the EU.
In other words,the EU was holding the tory vote back.
Spot on, politicos are reading far too much into what is happening: May isn't Cameron and Osborne who repelled so many natural conservatives. She is making it acceptable to vote tory again.
More importantly, she is making it acceptable to vote Tory for the first time....
So I reckon it's Con GAIN Suffolk, Con hold Northants and Devon, Lab hold Doncaster, probably edge Durham, and the Tories will be pushing for a majority in Cornwall but probably fall short.
Where will the Kippers go when Mrs May uses her huge majority to support the EU concessions she is going to make to ensure a soft landing for Brexit in the national interest?
Will there be a resurgent UKIP party? It will be too late to do anything about the large Tory majority for the next five years.
I can't see how she can improve the strength of the pro-Remain position in the HoC by going for a landslide. The net change in England and Wales will probably be to replace 30-50 or so mainly Remain Labour MPs by 30-50 Tory MPs of whom 45% will be Leavers. Some, good grief, might turn out to be like Bone or Cash.
The 45% figure is based on the stated views of the existing parliamentary party as of May 2016 when Tory MPs were split 55/45% for Remain. This split excludes MPs who refused to disclose which way they'd vote, e.g. Jesse Norman.
It is the size of her majority which will make it easier for her to weather the storms on her backbenches when she makes major concessions on Brexit. It's not the leave/remain mix per se.
With a majority of 12 in theory it would only take six Bones and Cashes to vote against her. With a majority of say 150 it would take 75 backbenchers to vote against her proposal for a very soft Brexit for which she will get some support from the opposition as well. It puts her in a much stronger position for a soft Brexit if that is where her heart really is, in the national interest.
We'll soon see. The litmus test is what happens to Fox. If he is fired, my scenario is probably correct.
I suspect Fox may be allowed to wither on the vine. Otherwise you may well be close to the mark. any Brexit scuppering will in fact, be down to the intransigence of the Eurocrats.
I wonder what she will do with Boris, now that he is no longer a threat. Amber Rudd as next Foreign Sec?
The PNV on the locals, Baxtered, gives a Tory majority of.... 22.
Which would be pretty disastrous for her. An election that barely changed anything.
Clearly I reckon she will do better than that, but a moment of warning for Tories.
Doesn't match up with the Tories winning mayoral elections in Tees Valley, Bristol, possibly West Midlands.
I'd knock two points off Labour, and add four or so to the Tories (from UKIP, LD, SNP and Labourites all scared of Corbyn). So, something like
C 42 L 25 LD 14 UKIP 4
... and all depends on Scotland.
Baxtered that gives a majority of around 100. Which is my hunch.
In reality, I'd expect more like 150 on those numbers. If Labour lose the West Midlands conurbation and Teesside, that's the kind of territory we're in.
Where will the Kippers go when Mrs May uses her huge majority to support the EU concessions she is going to make to ensure a soft landing for Brexit in the national interest?
Will there be a resurgent UKIP party? It will be too late to do anything about the large Tory majority for the next five years.
I can't see how she can improve the strength of the pro-Remain position in the HoC by going for a landslide. The net change in England and Wales will probably be to replace 30-50 or so mainly Remain Labour MPs by 30-50 Tory MPs of whom 45% will be Leavers. Some, good grief, might turn out to be like Bone or Cash.
The 45% figure is based on the stated views of the existing parliamentary party as of May 2016 when Tory MPs were split 55/45% for Remain. This split excludes MPs who refused to disclose which way they'd vote, e.g. Jesse Norman.
It is the size of her majority which will make it easier for her to weather the storms on her backbenches when she makes major concessions on Brexit. It's not the leave/remain mix per se.
With a majority of 12 in theory it would only take six Bones and Cashes to vote against her. With a majority of say 150 it would take 75 backbenchers to vote against her proposal for a very soft Brexit for which she will get some support from the opposition as well. It puts her in a much stronger position for a soft Brexit if that is where her heart really is, in the national interest.
We'll soon see. The litmus test is what happens to Fox. If he is fired, my scenario is probably correct.
I suspect Fox may be allowed to wither on the vine. Otherwise you may well be close to the mark. any Brexit scuppering will in fact, be down to the intransigence of the Eurocrats.
I wonder what she will do with Boris, now that he is no longer a threat. Amber Rudd as next Foreign Sec?
Perhaps she'll make Philip Holloborne Foreign Secretary.
Bit daft of news networks to be live at the Liverpool mayoral count (where the result has never been in doubt) and miss the big story in the Tees Valley (which is obviously a far more marginal area).
Also, Farron spinning like a Jenny!
Yeah, but who the **** wants to go to Middlesbrough? It's a bit far away for the journos and it makes Liverpool look positively delightful.
I have been to the greater Middlesbrough area loads of times - for some reason, it attracts loads of rare birds. Very good for rare waders, terns and gulls. (Possibly, it is just that the acid fumes floating above the city blind them.)
Seal sands?
No seals. No sand.
Seals are back there (assuming you visit when the tide is right). Its mudflaps though so not sandy....
You mean they are back because of all the abandoned cars?
Bit daft of news networks to be live at the Liverpool mayoral count (where the result has never been in doubt) and miss the big story in the Tees Valley (which is obviously a far more marginal area).
Also, Farron spinning like a Jenny!
Yeah, but who the **** wants to go to Middlesbrough? It's a bit far away for the journos and it makes Liverpool look positively delightful.
I have been to the greater Middlesbrough area loads of times - for some reason, it attracts loads of rare birds. Very good for rare waders, terns and gulls. (Possibly, it is just that the acid fumes floating above the city blind them.)
Bit daft of news networks to be live at the Liverpool mayoral count (where the result has never been in doubt) and miss the big story in the Tees Valley (which is obviously a far more marginal area).
Also, Farron spinning like a Jenny!
Yeah, but who the **** wants to go to Middlesbrough? It's a bit far away for the journos and it makes Liverpool look positively delightful.
I have been to the greater Middlesbrough area loads of times - for some reason, it attracts loads of rare birds. Very good for rare waders, terns and gulls. (Possibly, it is just that the acid fumes floating above the city blind them.)
Astonishingly good results for the Conservatives in Edinburgh, coming first in most wards. Very poor result for the SNP and good result for the Greens. The Greens will switch back tactically to the SNP for the Westminster elections, but based on these results, I would say the Conservatives are likely to win Edinburgh South West and have a good chance of powering past the SNP and Labour to win Edinburgh South (still waiting on results from the normally SNP Gilmerton ward, which is part of Edinburgh South). The Lib Dems should easily win Edinburgh West, with the remaining two seats SNP holds.
More heroic spinning from Labour: Tories apparently not doing very well because they aren't winning in Greater Manchester. Ignoring the fact that, if the Tories were winning in Greater Manchester, Labour would probably be looking at a sub-100 seat finish in the GE.
With Labour dead everywhere in southern England and in most of the Midlands as well, save (pretty much) for core Birmingham, inner London and a few university towns, the Tories don't need Greater Manchester, frankly.
So I reckon it's Con GAIN Suffolk, Con hold Northants and Devon, Lab hold Doncaster, probably edge Durham, and the Tories will be pushing for a majority in Cornwall but probably fall short.
In Cornwall, they're 21/65 so far (21 LD, 15 Ind, 5 Lab, 3 MK). Just over halfway through the ridiculously large number of seats. They'll be reasonably pleased, and heading to largest party status, but really hard to take control in a council where Indies are a factor and several parties are active in pockets, and seems unlikely.
Tories now 8 seats up in Cornwall. I don't see a Lib Dem comeback, there.
Look like Lib Dems will come out with a similar number compared to dissolution (43/123). It's about how many the Tories can get. I suspect a similar, maybe slightly lower number (let's say 38/123).
@Mike_Blackley: John Curtice says it looks like a 'disappointing' result for SNP compared to expectations. Unlikely to pass 40%.
That pretty much kills off indyref2. The SNP needed momentum, and the sense of an angry nation demanding a vote.
If this is repeated at the GE in june, TMay will say NO MANDATE, and deny a vote, and force the Nats to win another vote at Holyrood in 2021.
Which might be hard for Sturgeon, given her gentle decline at the moment.
She might have to resign as leader if the Tories do as well in Scotland as these local results indicate.
I can't see that. She's the best they've got.
There's a pathetic bunch of Nats and Labourites on the BBC mewling and complaining that TMay has been so mean and devious, and called an election when they are weak. Because, of course, they would never do that.
SHUT UP YOU WETWIPES
Barry Gardiner moaning about a decision his party supported in the HoC. Idiot.
Comments
Street 1.55-1.69
Simon 2.34-2.6
Less than £5 matched in total on this market.
But someone persuaded me not to do so.
I'm so grateful.
There's no formal difference beyond the description though - it's not like the Co-operative Party which stands joint candidates with Labour but is actually a separate organisation (albeit closely linked).
However hazy on the details, the groups had grasped the tenor of the leaks. Few found this very alarming, seeing it either as a negotiating tactic, or an expression of Europe’s fear of the future without Britain and (more to the point) its money: “They’re all frightened, aren’t they. They’ve got the French election coming up, and if Marine Le Pen gets in, oh my God. They’ll take France out, and that will be the end of the EU. So I think they’re all shit scared. Excuse that, sorry.” Far from seeing the episode as a told-you-so moment, many of those who had voted to stay in the EU were unimpressed: “I understand the logic of why we need to remain, but now they’re coming over and threatening us in our own territory.”
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/05/emirates-v-easyjet-election-focus-groups-five-weeks-go/
'ang on, weren't they hideously split and doomed to oblivion??? (c) Mark Someone-or-other
In other words a swing rather than a revolution.
If you have a group elected on different labels, you just have to write a letter to the Chief Executive informing him or her that you all wish to be treated by the council as a political group.
I'm sure there are such people in the great Venn diagram of politics... it just instinctively feels more niche.
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/wandering-phoenix-and-roaming-tiger.html
No seals.
No sand.
https://twitter.com/StephenDFisher/status/860487531061813248
https://twitter.com/StephenDFisher/status/860492020959367169
This really is turning in to an ABL contest.
Still space for a bit of shift in the campaign of course, but that does smell right.
Shows what a million quid can do.
I very much doubt he'd have won enough transfers if he hadn't spent huge amounts on non-tory branded ads before the spending limits kicked in.
Having said that, he seems like a decent enough candidate - and from what I can tell, he stuck to the campaign spending rules.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/309065744954580992
If she can't talk about indyref and TORIES, and starts talking about the day job, she is even more Fked
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/860491374055092225
https://media.tenor.co/images/1071ac1c02d0c33c5a62b2c570b72496/tenor.gif
With Labour dead everywhere in southern England and in most of the Midlands as well, save (pretty much) for core Birmingham, inner London and a few university towns, the Tories don't need Greater Manchester, frankly.
Any modest losses in 2021 and then SNP + Green won't have a majority.
Which will mean Game Over.
Bugger. I fear this man could become my bete noir in the next few years. Don't trust him.
I think that makes it SNP 19, Con 18 and Lab 12
I agree with your forecast. But not because of Solihull.