Where will the Kippers go when Mrs May uses her huge majority to support the EU concessions she is going to make to ensure a soft landing for Brexit in the national interest?
Will there be a resurgent UKIP party? It will be too late to do anything about the large Tory majority for the next five years.
I think a lot depends on whether the EU is willing to make compromises that May feels she can sell. The mood music so far isn't encouraging, though it's early days of course.
@bbclaurak: Veteran Labour councillor in Derbyshire 'on the doorsteps people aren't prepared to support Lab as don't want to be seen supporting Corbyn'
@janemerrick23: Labour have had terrible night, no doubt. But 3 mayors in 3 large cities show that people will vote for Labour "leaders" that aren't Corbyn
UKIP preferences will go heavily to Street and LD preferences will be split so I think Street has done it just as there are more UKIP than Green preferences
Sion may have failed to school the good voters of the West Midlands in the art of Brownian blitzkreig.
This is looking like Holyrood 2016 on crack, there a turnout increase of 5% almost all captured by the SCons, here a turnout increase of 8-10% seemingly captured by the Tories.
All bets are off (or on) for next month. I have no clue how it will play out but I am glad I have lots of SCon bets.
Marcus Wells @MarcusWells_ DA: "I think the net losses are about 50" ITN:"There are actually 125 net losses so far" DA: "Last time I looked we had net losses of 100”
The Midlands looks like it will be the Labour bloodbath I was expecting. And it will be worse at the GE. If you were going to devise a political figure designed specifically to repel Midlanders Corbyn would be it. If you didn't get it quite right you'd probably end up with Ed Miliband.
Actually, no - it's mixed. The Tories gained Derbyshire but I think have fallen short in Notts (though 11 seats still to declare), in some cases by large margins, and very nearly lost two in my former patch. They've lost in Coventry but may well win the overall West Mids results. They've piled up lots of votes in seats they already held, but seemingly failed to break through in depressed areas like Mansfield. It's a good Tory result but a reasonable Labour defence so far - but let's see the final results before concluding anything.
Health warning: Some Labour voters in areas where the party is still holding up at local level may not be so keen to vote for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.
In heory yes, but Southam was talking about these results. And FWIW I don't think the GE figures will be very different unless there are major new developments. As I said in an earlier post, in 11 hours I only met two voters who said they'd vote differently in the GE (naturally we asked). My impression is that people who dislike Corbyn enough to switch from Labour have now done so, and the current figures are correct. Which are, as I predicted and as we're now seeing, poor but not as bad as the polls have been suggesting.
I wonder if the polls have now been over-tweaked after the 2015 meltdown and now underestimate Labour turnout?
I myself was wondering if the adjustment had been made in the other direction. A lot of the polls are now showing Labour in the range 28-30%. The notion that Labour might be doing as well as under Brown or even EdM in its present wretched state is difficult to take seriously - although, as always, one stands to be disproved by events.
But Labour is doing quite a bit better in these elections than under Brown in 2009 at the peak of the Expenses scandal.
I myself was wondering if the adjustment had been made in the other direction. A lot of the polls are now showing Labour in the range 28-30%. The notion that Labour might be doing as well as under Brown or even EdM in its present wretched state is difficult to take seriously - although, as always, one stands to be disproved by events.
I take it seriously - there's a core Labour vote plus an ex-Green/abstention/some LibDem vote that really like Corbyn (which Ed didn't really have despite the Milifan effort - I never met a really fervent Ed fan, though lots who thought he was better than depicted). Let's see what the National Equivalent Vote calculation shows.
Don't misunderstand me - I'm not saying we're on course for anything but a Tory win on current figures. But the talk of Labour meltdown/collapse is overspun.
This is looking like Holyrood 2016 on crack, there a turnout increase of 5% almost all captured by the SCons, here a turnout increase of 8-10% seemingly captured by the Tories.
All bets are off (or on) for next month. I have no clue how it will play out but I am glad I have lots of SCon bets.
How motivated do you think SNP voters are to turn out for the GE? Clearly the Unionists are, do you think Indy voters will have the same enthusiasm?
Question on STV Mayoralty elections: when they count first pref, are the second pref counted at the same time? Or does another round of counting occur? i.e. quick result or slow result...
Looking at the Scottish results many so a distinct lack of ambition in putting up only 1 candidate in each ward. The whole point of STV is that it allows electors to have a choice of each party's candidates and this is negated if there's only 1 of them.
Tories gain Lancashire CC. Steve Rotherham wins Liverpool City Region with59% of first prefs. Still one area of the country where people aren't embarrassed to vote Labour!
UKIP preferences will go heavily to Street and LD preferences will be split so I think Street has done it just as there are more UKIP than Green preferences
Sion may have failed to school the good voters of the West Midlands in the art of Brownian blitzkreig.
Shortly there will be an election and Sion Simon will be defeated. This is the moment he was made for.
@PolhomeEditor: On Jeremy Corbyn hot-footing it to join in Steve Rotheram's victory party, one Labour wag says: "He's the John Terry of British politics."
Now confirmed - Tories failed to take Notts, after missing out on numerous target seats - I think they spread themselves too thinly while Labour focused well (usually it's the other way round!).
Looking at the Scottish results many so a distinct lack of ambition in putting up only 1 candidate in each ward. The whole point of STV is that it allows electors to have a choice of each party's candidates and this is negated if there's only 1 of them.
The Tories ran out of candidates in some places. They didn't expect to be doing nearly this well when the selections were done
Where will the Kippers go when Mrs May uses her huge majority to support the EU concessions she is going to make to ensure a soft landing for Brexit in the national interest?
Will there be a resurgent UKIP party? It will be too late to do anything about the large Tory majority for the next five years.
I can't see how she can improve the strength of the pro-Remain position in the HoC by going for a landslide. The net change in England and Wales will probably be to replace 30-50 or so mainly Remain Labour MPs by 30-50 Tory MPs of whom 45% will be Leavers. Some, good grief, might turn out to be like Bone or Cash.
The 45% figure is based on the stated views of the existing parliamentary party as of May 2016 when Tory MPs were split 55/45% for Remain. This split excludes MPs who refused to disclose which way they'd vote, e.g. Jesse Norman.
Marcus Wells @MarcusWells_ DA: "I think the net losses are about 50" ITN:"There are actually 125 net losses so far" DA: "Last time I looked we had net losses of 100”
I myself was wondering if the adjustment had been made in the other direction. A lot of the polls are now showing Labour in the range 28-30%. The notion that Labour might be doing as well as under Brown or even EdM in its present wretched state is difficult to take seriously - although, as always, one stands to be disproved by events.
I take it seriously - there's a core Labour vote plus an ex-Green/abstention/some LibDem vote that really like Corbyn (which Ed didn't really have despite the Milifan effort - I never met a really fervent Ed fan, though lots who thought he was better than depicted). Let's see what the National Equivalent Vote calculation shows.
Don't misunderstand me - I'm not saying we're on course for anything but a Tory win on current figures. But the talk of Labour meltdown/collapse is overspun.
What do you think Corbyn will do once Labour loses, if it is with a heavy loss but not complete meltdown (i.e. Finishing on 180 seats) - stand down, or soldier on?
I myself was wondering if the adjustment had been made in the other direction. A lot of the polls are now showing Labour in the range 28-30%. The notion that Labour might be doing as well as under Brown or even EdM in its present wretched state is difficult to take seriously - although, as always, one stands to be disproved by events.
I take it seriously - there's a core Labour vote plus an ex-Green/abstention/some LibDem vote that really like Corbyn (which Ed didn't really have despite the Milifan effort - I never met a really fervent Ed fan, though lots who thought he was better than depicted). Let's see what the National Equivalent Vote calculation shows.
Don't misunderstand me - I'm not saying we're on course for anything but a Tory win on current figures. But the talk of Labour meltdown/collapse is overspun.
What do you think Corbyn will do once Labour loses, if it is with a heavy loss but not complete meltdown (i.e. Finishing on 180 seats) - stand down, or soldier on?
Soldier on, no question about it. He won't go until the hard left can fix future leadership elections.
It always amuses me that Labour and Lancashire have the same symbol. When was Lancashire last Tory controlled?
2009-2013
I think people are getting carried away with these county results - to me they just seem to have reversed the 2013 elections. Are there any counties where the conservatives have a much better performance than in 2009 ?
This is looking like Holyrood 2016 on crack, there a turnout increase of 5% almost all captured by the SCons, here a turnout increase of 8-10% seemingly captured by the Tories.
All bets are off (or on) for next month. I have no clue how it will play out but I am glad I have lots of SCon bets.
Trend in Edinburgh is pretty clear. Turnout in wealthier areas is up 10%, turnout in not so wealthy areas is up about 5%.
I would imagine this is being replicated across the country.
Now confirmed - Tories failed to take Notts, after missing out on numerous target seats - I think they spread themselves too thinly while Labour focused well (usually it's the other way round!).
The Tories are the largest party by far, 3 short of control.. I guess spinning it as a Tory fail comforts for the disaster it is for Labour.
Marcus Wells @MarcusWells_ DA: "I think the net losses are about 50" ITN:"There are actually 125 net losses so far" DA: "Last time I looked we had net losses of 100”
It always amuses me that Labour and Lancashire have the same symbol. When was Lancashire last Tory controlled?
2009-2013
I think people are getting carried away with these county results - to me they just seem to have reversed the 2013 elections. Are there any counties where the conservatives have a much better performance than in 2009 ?
2009 was an extremely good result for the Conservatives.
* Everyone expresses a second preference (or that drop out is spread evenly cross all four eliminated candidates) and,
* UKIP break 90% tory, Lib Dem 50/50, Greens 90% to Lab and the COmmunists 100% to Lab,
Then:
Street wins it by 6k votes, a margin of 1.2%
If we assume that UKIP, Green and Comm transfer assumptions above are solid, then crossover comes when the Lib Dem votes split 60/40 to Lab.
I'd say it's on a complete knife edge and all down to the LibDem transfers. Proportionately there are slightly more LIB Dem votes in Bham and Soliwell.
Apologies if already posted but the West Sussex CC UKIP's group leader Sandra James has lost her seat. UKIP was the largest opposition group in West Sussex.
BBC reporter saying Tories have won Tees Valley Mayoralty @BBCRichardMoss Hartlepool still to declare but pretty clear Conservative @BenHouchen will be the first Tees Valley mayor #LE2017
Marcus Wells @MarcusWells_ DA: "I think the net losses are about 50" ITN:"There are actually 125 net losses so far" DA: "Last time I looked we had net losses of 100”
It always amuses me that Labour and Lancashire have the same symbol. When was Lancashire last Tory controlled?
2009-2013
I think people are getting carried away with these county results - to me they just seem to have reversed the 2013 elections. Are there any counties where the conservatives have a much better performance than in 2009 ?
2009 was an extremely good result for the Conservatives.
I agree Sean, but the topic seemed to be suggesting that there is a sea change afoot, and that parts of the Labour base have transitioned to UKIP and onto the Tories giving unprecedented Conservative support. Whereas the Conservative performance in many council areas seems to be something they have achieved before, namely in 2009.
The Midlands looks like it will be the Labour bloodbath I was expecting. And it will be worse at the GE. If you were going to devise a political figure designed specifically to repel Midlanders Corbyn would be it. If you didn't get it quite right you'd probably end up with Ed Miliband.
Actually, no - it's mixed. The Tories gained Derbyshire but I think have fallen short in Notts (though 11 seats still to declare), in some cases by large margins, and very nearly lost two in my former patch. They've lost in Coventry but may well win the overall West Mids results. They've piled up lots of votes in seats they already held, but seemingly failed to break through in depressed areas like Mansfield. It's a good Tory result but a reasonable Labour defence so far - but let's see the final results before concluding anything.
Health warning: Some Labour voters in areas where the party is still holding up at local level may not be so keen to vote for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.
In heory yes, but Southam was talking about these results. And FWIW I don't think the GE figures will be very different unless there are major new developments. As I said in an earlier post, in 11 hours I only met two voters who said they'd vote differently in the GE (naturally we asked). My impression is that people who dislike Corbyn enough to switch from Labour have now done so, and the current figures are correct. Which are, as I predicted and as we're now seeing, poor but not as bad as the polls have been suggesting.
I wonder if the polls have now been over-tweaked after the 2015 meltdown and now underestimate Labour turnout?
I myself was wondering if the adjustment had been made in the other direction. A lot of the polls are now showing Labour in the range 28-30%. The notion that Labour might be doing as well as under Brown or even EdM in its present wretched state is difficult to take seriously - although, as always, one stands to be disproved by events.
But Labour is doing quite a bit better in these elections than under Brown in 2009 at the peak of the Expenses scandal.
Your baseline now is the final midterm elections 12 years into a Labour government?
UKIP preferences will go heavily to Street and LD preferences will be split so I think Street has done it just as there are more UKIP than Green preferences
Sion may have failed to school the good voters of the West Midlands in the art of Brownian blitzkreig.
Shortly there will be an election and Sion Simon will be defeated. This is the moment he was made for.
He is bursting with his sense of destiny. He has utterly shattered the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained the West Midlands for over a century since 1906.
The Midlands looks like it will be the Labour bloodbath I was expecting. And it will be worse at the GE. If you were going to devise a political figure designed specifically to repel Midlanders Corbyn would be it. If you didn't get it quite right you'd probably end up with Ed Miliband.
Actually, no - it's mixed. The Tories gained Derbyshire but I think have fallen short in Notts (though 11 seats still to declare), in some cases by large margins, and very nearly lost two in my former patch. They've lost in Coventry but may well win the overall West Mids results. They've piled up lots of votes in seats they already held, but seemingly failed to break through in depressed areas like Mansfield. It's a good Tory result but a reasonable Labour defence so far - but let's see the final results before concluding anything.
Health warning: Some Labour voters in areas where the party is still holding up at local level may not be so keen to vote for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.
In heory yes, but Southam was talking about these results. And FWIW I don't think the GE figures will be very different unless there are major new developments. As I said in an earlier post, in 11 hours I only met two voters who said they'd vote differently in the GE (naturally we asked). My impression is that people who dislike Corbyn enough to switch from Labour have now done so, and the current figures are correct. Which are, as I predicted and as we're now seeing, poor but not as bad as the polls have been suggesting.
I wonder if the polls have now been over-tweaked after the 2015 meltdown and now underestimate Labour turnout?
I myself was wondering if the adjustment had been made in the other direction. A lot of the polls are now showing Labour in the range 28-30%. The notion that Labour might be doing as well as under Brown or even EdM in its present wretched state is difficult to take seriously - although, as always, one stands to be disproved by events.
But Labour is doing quite a bit better in these elections than under Brown in 2009 at the peak of the Expenses scandal.
Your baseline now is the final midterm elections 12 years into a Labour government?
Not at all! I was simply addressing the suggestion that it was not realistic for Labour to perform as well as under Brown in 2010 when just 11 months earlier Labour suffered a much heavier defeat than we are seeing here.
The Midlands looks like it will be the Labour bloodbath I was expecting. And it will be worse at the GE. If you were going to devise a political figure designed specifically to repel Midlanders Corbyn would be it. If you didn't get it quite right you'd probably end up with Ed Miliband.
Actually, no - it's mixed. The Tories gained Derbyshire but I think have fallen short in Notts (though 11 seats still to declare), in some cases by large margins, and very nearly lost two in my former patch. They've lost in Coventry but may well win the overall West Mids results. They've piled up lots of votes in seats they already held, but seemingly failed to break through in depressed areas like Mansfield. It's a good Tory result but a reasonable Labour defence so far - but let's see the final results before concluding anything.
Health warning: Some Labour voters in areas where the party is still holding up at local level may not be so keen to vote for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.
In heory yes, but Southam was talking about these results. And FWIW I don't think the GE figures will be very different unless there are major new developments. As I said in an earlier post, in 11 hours I only met two voters who said they'd vote differently in the GE (naturally we asked). My impression is that people who dislike Corbyn enough to switch from Labour have now done so, and the current figures are correct. Which are, as I predicted and as we're now seeing, poor but not as bad as the polls have been suggesting.
I wonder if the polls have now been over-tweaked after the 2015 meltdown and now underestimate Labour turnout?
I myself was wondering if the adjustment had been made in the other direction. A lot of the polls are now showing Labour in the range 28-30%. The notion that Labour might be doing as well as under Brown or even EdM in its present wretched state is difficult to take seriously - although, as always, one stands to be disproved by events.
But Labour is doing quite a bit better in these elections than under Brown in 2009 at the peak of the Expenses scandal.
Your baseline now is the final midterm elections 12 years into a Labour government?
BBC announces projected national share of the vote:
Con 38% (+3) Lab 27% (-2) LD 18% (+7) Ukip 5% (-8) Other 12% (0)
Changes since 2015.
Theory (borrowed, not my own): Conservative figure is their floor, Labour and Lib Dem their ceiling (and in truth, if the Liberal Democrats get anywhere close of 18% at the General Election I'd be utterly astonished.)
Anyway, regardless of the fact that local elections and general elections are clean different things, the raw figures help their narrative. They make the Coalition of Chaos look plausible.
Oh, and Tory win in Tees Valley mayoral race just confirmed.
I myself was wondering if the adjustment had been made in the other direction. A lot of the polls are now showing Labour in the range 28-30%. The notion that Labour might be doing as well as under Brown or even EdM in its present wretched state is difficult to take seriously - although, as always, one stands to be disproved by events.
I take it seriously - there's a core Labour vote plus an ex-Green/abstention/some LibDem vote that really like Corbyn (which Ed didn't really have despite the Milifan effort - I never met a really fervent Ed fan, though lots who thought he was better than depicted). Let's see what the National Equivalent Vote calculation shows.
Don't misunderstand me - I'm not saying we're on course for anything but a Tory win on current figures. But the talk of Labour meltdown/collapse is overspun.
What do you think Corbyn will do once Labour loses, if it is with a heavy loss but not complete meltdown (i.e. Finishing on 180 seats) - stand down, or soldier on?
Soldier on, no question about it. He won't go until the hard left can fix future leadership elections.
I agree that seems the most likely option - i guess the more unpredictable is whether he would win another contest with the membership. Harder to know there. He will have lost a lot of the soft Corbynistas
Marcus Wells @MarcusWells_ DA: "I think the net losses are about 50" ITN:"There are actually 125 net losses so far" DA: "Last time I looked we had net losses of 100”
Marcus Wells @MarcusWells_ DA: "I think the net losses are about 50" ITN:"There are actually 125 net losses so far" DA: "Last time I looked we had net losses of 100”
This is looking like Holyrood 2016 on crack, there a turnout increase of 5% almost all captured by the SCons, here a turnout increase of 8-10% seemingly captured by the Tories.
All bets are off (or on) for next month. I have no clue how it will play out but I am glad I have lots of SCon bets.
How motivated do you think SNP voters are to turn out for the GE? Clearly the Unionists are, do you think Indy voters will have the same enthusiasm?
No idea.
One way of looking at this is that Holyrood and especially council elections are low turnout elections where a motivated electorate makes big differences and the effect will simply not be as pronounced at the UK GE.
the other is that SNP got a boost from an abnormally motivated 20-15 electorate and that unwinding will badly hit them this time round
The other is that both will occur, that the Con motivation is carry forwardable to the GE plus the SNP vote will be demotivated as a double whammy plus tactical voting means 19 Con seats is a real possibility.
Where will the Kippers go when Mrs May uses her huge majority to support the EU concessions she is going to make to ensure a soft landing for Brexit in the national interest?
Will there be a resurgent UKIP party? It will be too late to do anything about the large Tory majority for the next five years.
I can't see how she can improve the strength of the pro-Remain position in the HoC by going for a landslide. The net change in England and Wales will probably be to replace 30-50 or so mainly Remain Labour MPs by 30-50 Tory MPs of whom 45% will be Leavers. Some, good grief, might turn out to be like Bone or Cash.
The 45% figure is based on the stated views of the existing parliamentary party as of May 2016 when Tory MPs were split 55/45% for Remain. This split excludes MPs who refused to disclose which way they'd vote, e.g. Jesse Norman.
Tories are no longer 55/45 that was before the Referendum. After the Referendum most Remain voting Tories accepted the result and moved on. They're Leavers now. I could only think of about half a dozen die hard Remain Tories and one of them stepped down this election.
BBC announces projected national share of the vote:
Con 38% (+3) Lab 27% (-2) LD 18% (+7) Ukip 5% (-8) Other 12% (0)
Changes since 2015.
They're turnouts of 20-30% I'm really not convinced a national voteshare projection from these results is meaningful.
By and large, the voters who voted today will vote again next month. Their votes are likely to distributed in line with ^, with some small variation.
The voters who didn't vote today, but will vote next month will split quite differently to ^.
Another (related) reason to be cautious about a comparison with 2015 is that the local elections then were on the same day as the general election. So, for example, the Lib Dem equivalent figure for 2015 is probably significantly lower than it would have been for ordinary local elections.
Some people on the VoteUK forum seem to be saying that in the West Midlands mayoral election they were told by the officials that they had to vote for a second preference when in fact they don't.
BBC announces projected national share of the vote:
Con 38% (+3) Lab 27% (-2) LD 18% (+7) Ukip 5% (-8) Other 12% (0)
Changes since 2015.
Theory (borrowed, not my own): Conservative figure is their floor, Labour and Lib Dem their ceiling (and in truth, if the Liberal Democrats get anywhere close of 18% at the General Election I'd be utterly astonished.)
Anyway, regardless of the fact that local elections and general elections are clean different things, the raw figures help their narrative. They make the Coalition of Chaos look plausible.
Oh, and Tory win in Tees Valley mayoral race just confirmed.
The theory does not necessarily apply this year. We have to go back to 1955 to find an example of Local Elections taking place after the announcement of a general election.
BBC announces projected national share of the vote:
Con 38% (+3) Lab 27% (-2) LD 18% (+7) Ukip 5% (-8) Other 12% (0)
Changes since 2015.
How do these national vote projections handle the fact that there are no elections in London ?
And are they effectively saying there is a 2.5% swing from Lab to Con since 2015; if so this is not landslide territory? And where are all these LibDem votes coming from - they've lost seats?
It always amuses me that Labour and Lancashire have the same symbol. When was Lancashire last Tory controlled?
2009-2013
I think people are getting carried away with these county results - to me they just seem to have reversed the 2013 elections. Are there any counties where the conservatives have a much better performance than in 2009 ?
2009 was an extremely good result for the Conservatives.
I agree Sean, but the topic seemed to be suggesting that there is a sea change afoot, and that parts of the Labour base have transitioned to UKIP and onto the Tories giving unprecedented Conservative support. Whereas the Conservative performance in many council areas seems to be something they have achieved before, namely in 2009.
That was however Brown's nadir (Labour NEV 23%) from which he managed to claw back to a somewhat better position in the General Election, as governments tend to do. The comparison of an opposition performance of 38%, which fell back, with a government performance of 38% is misleading, particularly when it isn't obvious what is going to improve for the Labour Party in the next few weeks.
BBC announces projected national share of the vote:
Con 38% (+3) Lab 27% (-2) LD 18% (+7) Ukip 5% (-8) Other 12% (0)
Changes since 2015.
How do these national vote projections handle the fact that there are no elections in London ?
And are they effectively saying there is a 2.5% swing from Lab to Con since 2015; if so this is not landslide territory? And where are all these LibDem votes coming from - they've lost seats?
The LibDems seem to have picked up (presumably remainer) votes across the board, enabling them to recover from the extremely low votes of 2013 in many non-target areas, but this hasn't helped them greatly in target areas, where I guess more remainers stuck with them through the hard times.
BBC announces projected national share of the vote:
Con 38% (+3) Lab 27% (-2) LD 18% (+7) Ukip 5% (-8) Other 12% (0)
Changes since 2015.
How do these national vote projections handle the fact that there are no elections in London ?
And are they effectively saying there is a 2.5% swing from Lab to Con since 2015; if so this is not landslide territory? And where are all these LibDem votes coming from - they've lost seats?
2.5% swing to the government from a majority winning election could lead to a landslide. Lib Dems could be picking back up none of the above protest votes from UKIP where it doesn't matter to the result of the seat.
The May 1970 Local Elections were unexpectedly good for Labour , and helped to persuade Harold Wilson to call an election for the following month. The Tory Opposition was able to improve its performance in the latter.
Don't understand. The swing to the Tories is much less than expected, but the Tories are at the high end of expectation in terms of seats won?
Better distribution? And will this extend to the GE?
I'd imagine part of the clue to the lower swing is in the Welsh polling. The Tories had a 10 percent lead in GE polling but were 1 or 2 percent behind Labour in the locals.
Don't understand. The swing to the Tories is much less than expected, but the Tories are at the high end of expectation in terms of seats won?
Better distribution? And will this extend to the GE?
I think we're all in danger of comparing apples with oranges. Low turnout, not voting for national government, etc, make these elections a somewhat different entity to the GE. I think the results will be far worse for Labour than these results when the serious business of choosing a national government and a PM are at the forefront of people's minds, and not local bin collections.
Comments
Moray Council @TheMorayCouncil
Share of the votes:
Cons: 36.1%
Green: 2.6%
Ind: 24.1%
Lab: 4.3%
Lib: 1.2%
SNP: 31.6%
@janemerrick23: Labour have had terrible night, no doubt. But 3 mayors in 3 large cities show that people will vote for Labour "leaders" that aren't Corbyn
Labour MPs, know what you need to do...
Lab 30
Plaid 8
Ind 2
total number of councillors is 73. So majority is at 37
All bets are off (or on) for next month. I have no clue how it will play out but I am glad I have lots of SCon bets.
https://twitter.com/nwilson4mseandr/status/860479283764092929
https://twitter.com/UK__News/status/860481374276472832
DA: "I think the net losses are about 50"
ITN:"There are actually 125 net losses so far"
DA: "Last time I looked we had net losses of 100”
Don't misunderstand me - I'm not saying we're on course for anything but a Tory win on current figures. But the talk of Labour meltdown/collapse is overspun.
Lab 9 (-1)
Con 7 (+4)
SNP 6 (-3)
Conservatives 37 seats
Labour 24
Liberal Democrat 3
Labour: 210,259 (41%)
Lib Dems: 30,378 (6%)
UKIP: 29,051 (6%)
Greens: 24,260 (5%)
Very crude back-of-fag-packet guestimate - Street 260,000, Simon 250,000.
The 45% figure is based on the stated views of the existing parliamentary party as of May 2016 when Tory MPs were split 55/45% for Remain. This split excludes MPs who refused to disclose which way they'd vote, e.g. Jesse Norman.
(Well, most of them)
I think people are getting carried away with these county results - to me they just seem to have reversed the 2013 elections. Are there any counties where the conservatives have a much better performance than in 2009 ?
I would imagine this is being replicated across the country.
Con 38
Lab 27
LD 18
UKIP 5
OTH 12
Con 38% (+3)
Lab 27% (-2)
LD 18% (+7)
Ukip 5% (-8)
Other 12% (0)
Changes since 2015.
Graeme Bruce (Con)
Neil Gardiner (SNP)
Ricky Henderson (Lab)
Susan Webber (Con)
Turnout 50.5%
IF (big if) we assume:
* Everyone expresses a second preference (or that drop out is spread evenly cross all four eliminated candidates) and,
* UKIP break 90% tory, Lib Dem 50/50, Greens 90% to Lab and the COmmunists 100% to Lab,
Then:
Street wins it by 6k votes, a margin of 1.2%
If we assume that UKIP, Green and Comm transfer assumptions above are solid, then crossover comes when the Lib Dem votes split 60/40 to Lab.
I'd say it's on a complete knife edge and all down to the LibDem transfers. Proportionately there are slightly more LIB Dem votes in Bham and Soliwell.
Make of that what you will...
@BBCRichardMoss
Hartlepool still to declare but pretty clear Conservative @BenHouchen will be the first Tees Valley mayor #LE2017
Corbyn won't step down, but will we see more dissent from MP's though? More distancing from the leadership?
And if so will he have to give that up if he becomes Mayor?
Con 38 (+5)
LD 13 (-)
Lab 6 (-3)
UKIP 0 (-2)
The LD seats are almost all in the Bosworth and Harborough Constituencies.
https://www.leicestershire.gov.uk/about-the-council/how-the-council-works/elections/election-2017
By and large, the voters who voted today will vote again next month. Their votes are likely to distributed in line with ^, with some small variation.
The voters who didn't vote today, but will vote next month will split quite differently to ^.
Anyway, regardless of the fact that local elections and general elections are clean different things, the raw figures help their narrative. They make the Coalition of Chaos look plausible.
Oh, and Tory win in Tees Valley mayoral race just confirmed.
One way of looking at this is that Holyrood and especially council elections are low turnout elections where a motivated electorate makes big differences and the effect will simply not be as pronounced at the UK GE.
the other is that SNP got a boost from an abnormally motivated 20-15 electorate and that unwinding will badly hit them this time round
The other is that both will occur, that the Con motivation is carry forwardable to the GE plus the SNP vote will be demotivated as a double whammy plus tactical voting means 19 Con seats is a real possibility.
PNS equals an 11% Con-Lab gap. In 1983 locals it was 3%, in 1987 6%. You add in forced choice of PM, #GE2017 *could* be a massacre.
con
gain
Tees
amazing.
Con 39
Lab 36
All 20
1987:
Con 38
Lab 32
All 27
In that time Labour will continue to collapse - their candidates denouncing JC will not help.
The Tories will continue to ask for a blank cheque, the Liberals will look like the only alternative and should pick up support in winnable seats.
@britainelects