Just home from work, catching up with the election news on the Beeb.
Observations:
Peter Kellner suggesting that this rivals 1982 (in the midst of the Falklands War) as the best Conservative local government election performance since detailed records began to be kept in the Seventies.
Kellner also suggested that, if we tot up the combined vote for all the left-leaning parties and the combined vote for all the right-leaning parties, a small but measurable right-to-left swing is observable. The problem for the left, of course, is that their vote is much more divided.
Saw latest results from Norfolk - Liberal Democrats gaining vote share but losing councillors, presumably because they are being swamped by a huge Ukip to Con swing. Ill omens there for Norman Lamb.
Ukip dying everywhere. Have heard that they may finally have won a seat up in Burnley, so Ukip=0 not technically accurate, but I think it's going to be pretty close.
Conservatives 40,278 to Labour's 39,797. Lib Dems on 12,550 UKIP on 9,475
less than 25% turnout... Really not sure how it will play out as I'm not sure how many people will have used their second preferences (most people I spoke to didn't but equally they probably voted for one of the top 2 anyway).
@MichaelLCrick: Simon Danczuk, who has been barred from standing for Rochdale for Labour, tells me he's "seriously thinking" of standing as an independent
Walsall have voted 49.5% Conservative and 34.9% Labour in first stage of #wmmayor election
I think Simon may have a narrow lead on first preferences because of the Labour tribal vote in Birmingham and Coventry but Street may win it overall with LD and UKIP preferences but we will see it looks close either way
I am still too busy at work to keep up with this. Can someone of a neutral and unexcitable none Tory persuasion (e.g. Alastair) give me the OK/FUBAR level for Corbyn on a scale of 1-10. Cheers!
I'm unsure if I count as non-Tory persuasion, but I'd say it's currently a five. It's not as bad is it could be, and it looks like he'll beat Labour's worst predictions - e.g. they've held Cardiff. Other areas look expectedly bad.
Corbyn will stay on until the GE (there's little point in getting rid of him before then anyway).
WM Mayor: Walsall 49.5% Conservative v 34.9% Labour
Interesting. Labour hold both Walsall seats with Tories in second place. A 7.2% swing needed to take Walsall North, and 2.6% to take Walsall South. Taking both seats would indicate a Tory landslide.
The Midlands looks like it will be the Labour bloodbath I was expecting. And it will be worse at the GE. If you were going to devise a political figure designed specifically to repel Midlanders Corbyn would be it. If you didn't get it quite right you'd probably end up with Ed Miliband.
@MichaelLCrick: Simon Danczuk, who has been barred from standing for Rochdale for Labour, tells me he's "seriously thinking" of standing as an independent
@Carlaw4Eastwood: Congratulations to Paul Aitken on becoming first Conservative Cllr in Barrhead in 25 years. Looking good for @PM4EastRen on June 8th.
I am still too busy at work to keep up with this. Can someone of a neutral and unexcitable none Tory persuasion (e.g. Alastair) give me the OK/FUBAR level for Corbyn on a scale of 1-10. Cheers!
I'm unsure if I count as non-Tory persuasion, but I'd say it's currently a five. It's not as bad is it could be, and it looks like he'll beat Labour's worst predictions - e.g. they've held Cardiff. Other areas look expectedly bad.
Corbyn will stay on until the GE (there's little point in getting rid of him before then anyway).
But it's not over yet ...
I'd say that Labour have retreated into strongholds: Manchester, Liverpool, Cardiff all looking OK. But they seem on track to lose the Tees Valley metro mayor which should never have been in doubt. The North East looks like a disaster area for Labour. So Corbyn has enough decent areas and results to talk up, with the total meltdown only occurring in certain areas.
Heroic spinning from Labour (1): getting shellacked nearly everywhere but bigging up the fact that they survived in bits of South Wales.
Heroic spinning from Labour (2): being shredded by the SNP in Glasgow, but claiming their opponents will have failed if they can't get an absolute majority in a very hard to win STV election.
I think about the only thing they have going for them today is that they're doing miles better than Ukip.
@Carlaw4Eastwood: Congratulations to Paul Aitken on becoming first Conservative Cllr in Barrhead in 25 years. Looking good for @PM4EastRen on June 8th.
Much as I think Diane Abbot deserves pretty much whatever she gets from interviewers, this is a real gotcha question. I hate interviewers who do that - the interview becomes about how smart the interviewer (thinks he/she) is versus informing the public about the issues.
In this case, it is worse. We already know how crap Diane is.
I am still too busy at work to keep up with this. Can someone of a neutral and unexcitable none Tory persuasion (e.g. Alastair) give me the OK/FUBAR level for Corbyn on a scale of 1-10. Cheers!
I'm unsure if I count as non-Tory persuasion, but I'd say it's currently a five. It's not as bad is it could be, and it looks like he'll beat Labour's worst predictions - e.g. they've held Cardiff. Other areas look expectedly bad.
Corbyn will stay on until the GE (there's little point in getting rid of him before then anyway).
I am still too busy at work to keep up with this. Can someone of a neutral and unexcitable none Tory persuasion (e.g. Alastair) give me the OK/FUBAR level for Corbyn on a scale of 1-10. Cheers!
I'm unsure if I count as non-Tory persuasion, but I'd say it's currently a five. It's not as bad is it could be, and it looks like he'll beat Labour's worst predictions - e.g. they've held Cardiff. Other areas look expectedly bad.
Corbyn will stay on until the GE (there's little point in getting rid of him before then anyway).
But it's not over yet ...
I'd say that Labour have retreated into strongholds: Manchester, Liverpool, Cardiff all looking OK. But they seem on track to lose the Tees Valley metro mayor which should never have been in doubt. The North East looks like a disaster area for Labour. So Corbyn has enough decent areas and results to talk up, with the total meltdown only occurring in certain areas.
Technically Teesside is not the North East - that was going to be a different Mayoral region but the councils couldn't agree on it - as Sunderland and Gateshead are always worried about a bias towards Newcastle.
Locally the local Labour Councils are suffering from the council cut backs so between that and a lack of effort in getting out the vote I don't think Labour losing it is that big a surprise.
Also given that the main topic seemed to be a local airport that only flies to Amsterdam and Aberdeen I don't think its the most relevant election for most people
Heroic spinning from Labour (1): getting shellacked nearly everywhere but bigging up the fact that they survived in bits of South Wales.
Heroic spinning from Labour (2): being shredded by the SNP in Glasgow, but claiming their opponents will have failed if they can't get an absolute majority in a very hard to win STV election.
I think about the only thing they have going for them today is that they're doing miles better than Ukip.
The significance of branding it as a Theresa May campaign is that they don't have to go all out negative on Corbyn - every time people hear "Theresa May" they can be left to infer "the other option is Corbyn".
Sedgefield was always a possible Tory win (its a nice enough village that people move there). Trimdon and Fishburn would be the area to watch out for in this election and that constituency...
I am still too busy at work to keep up with this. Can someone of a neutral and unexcitable none Tory persuasion (e.g. Alastair) give me the OK/FUBAR level for Corbyn on a scale of 1-10. Cheers!
I'm unsure if I count as non-Tory persuasion, but I'd say it's currently a five. It's not as bad is it could be, and it looks like he'll beat Labour's worst predictions - e.g. they've held Cardiff. Other areas look expectedly bad.
Corbyn will stay on until the GE (there's little point in getting rid of him before then anyway).
But it's not over yet ...
Yes it is.
I don't think it is. If Labour lose the mayoraltys (e.g. Manchester) then the pressure really will be back on Corbyn. Doubt that will happen, and not sure what they could do about him anyway.
So far, there's enough 'good' for his fans and wider Labour to point at. And that's probably another victory for the Conservtives today ...
Just home from work, catching up with the election news on the Beeb.
Observations:
Peter Kellner suggesting that this rivals 1982 (in the midst of the Falklands War) as the best Conservative local government election performance since detailed records began to be kept in the Seventies.
Kellner also suggested that, if we tot up the combined vote for all the left-leaning parties and the combined vote for all the right-leaning parties, a small but measurable right-to-left swing is observable. The problem for the left, of course, is that their vote is much more divided.
Saw latest results from Norfolk - Liberal Democrats gaining vote share but losing councillors, presumably because they are being swamped by a huge Ukip to Con swing. Ill omens there for Norman Lamb.
Ukip dying everywhere. Have heard that they may finally have won a seat up in Burnley, so Ukip=0 not technically accurate, but I think it's going to be pretty close.
LibDem gain Cromer!
"Kellner also suggested that, if we tot up the combined vote for all the left-leaning parties and the combined vote for all the right-leaning parties, a small but measurable right-to-left swing is observable."
Another predictable comment from yet another left-leaning psephologist!
Walsall have voted 49.5% Conservative and 34.9% Labour in first stage of #wmmayor election
I think Simon may have a narrow lead on first preferences because of the Labour tribal vote in Birmingham and Coventry but Street may win it overall with LD and UKIP preferences but we will see it looks close either way
I a man offering 4.0 on bf exchange and not getting any takers so the punters don't think it's close
I'm feeling some sympathy for Dianne Abbott and Emily Thornberry. "The girls stood on the burning deck, whence all but they had fled."
Tis only a flash wound
I stood in the polling booth yesterday with my pencil poised over the Ukip candidate and thought "What's the point now?" Ah bless, I decided, and gave them a sympathy vote.
Saw latest results from Norfolk - Liberal Democrats gaining vote share but losing councillors, presumably because they are being swamped by a huge Ukip to Con swing. Ill omens there for Norman Lamb.
Not all that bad for him in his own constituency though. Losing South Smallburgh and Sheringham to Tories, but balanced by Cromer and Mundesley going the opposite way. Plus the bonus of picking up Holt from UKIP. Others seem to be going to form. It will be fairly close, but the current bookie odds (Lamb favourite but not hot favourite) seem right in spite of UKIP collapse.
Much as I think Diane Abbot deserves pretty much whatever she gets from interviewers, this is a real gotcha question. I hate interviewers who do that - the interview becomes about how smart the interviewer (thinks he/she) is versus informing the public about the issues.
In this case, it is worse. We already know how crap Diane is.
True, and true, but the issue is it's sinking into the collective consciousness (cf my very apolitical S Wales office, where people are now making numeracy jokes about Ms Abbott), that she/Labour simply don't do numbers and consequently look like a one legged man in an arse kicking contest on competency.
Once the dust settles it would be interesting to see how the Libdems have done in their target seats and seats they once held. That's all that matters for the GE.
Conservatives ahead on first preferences for the Tees Valley mayoralty
Well, Felix, wherever you are, you were right.
On the plus side, proof Corbyn needs to go!
I'm just in! Depends on 2nd prefs of course now.
I can't see LDs splitting enough for Labour to counteract UKIP, especially since the LD candidate took out newspaper ads urging people to use their 2 preferences to unseat Labour!
@Edinburgh_CC: Ward 11 City Centre results: 4 elected Karen Doran (Lab) Claire Miller (Green) Jo Mowat (Con) Alasdair Rankin (SNP) Turnout 43.7% #edincount
Heroic spinning from Labour (1): getting shellacked nearly everywhere but bigging up the fact that they survived in bits of South Wales.
Heroic spinning from Labour (2): being shredded by the SNP in Glasgow, but claiming their opponents will have failed if they can't get an absolute majority in a very hard to win STV election.
I think about the only thing they have going for them today is that they're doing miles better than Ukip.
Labour have done quite well in Norfolk!
Squeezing the Green vote in Norwich?
I can't see them getting all that far anywhere else.
Walsall have voted 49.5% Conservative and 34.9% Labour in first stage of #wmmayor election
I think Simon may have a narrow lead on first preferences because of the Labour tribal vote in Birmingham and Coventry but Street may win it overall with LD and UKIP preferences but we will see it looks close either way
I a man offering 4.0 on bf exchange and not getting any takers so the punters don't think it's close
Punters on WM Mayor election a rather small pool, basically if Simon wins it will be because of Birmingham if Street wins it will be the outlying authorities which are key
Sedgefield was always a possible Tory win (its a nice enough village that people move there). Trimdon and Fishburn would be the area to watch out for in this election and that constituency...
OK: Trimdon = pretty solid Labour wins (3-seats) - about 1400 Labour - 500 UKIP - 580 Tory
I'm feeling some sympathy for Dianne Abbott and Emily Thornberry. "The girls stood on the burning deck, whence all but they had fled."
Tis only a flash wound
I stood in the polling booth yesterday with my pencil poised over the Ukip candidate and thought "What's the point now?" Ah bless, I decided, and gave them a sympathy vote.
@Edinburgh_CC: Ward 10 – Morningside results: 4 elected Nick Cook (Con) Melanie Main (Green) Neil Ross (Lib Dem) Mandy Watt (Lab) Turnout 57.3% #edincount
@faisalislam: Birmingham part of West Midlands mayoralty count first round: 206k Street (Con): 75578 Simon (Lab): 95098 LD: 14,840 Ukip: 7537 Green: 9787 pic.twitter.com/Omgp2gQvup
The Midlands looks like it will be the Labour bloodbath I was expecting. And it will be worse at the GE. If you were going to devise a political figure designed specifically to repel Midlanders Corbyn would be it. If you didn't get it quite right you'd probably end up with Ed Miliband.
Actually, no - it's mixed. The Tories gained Derbyshire but I think have fallen short in Notts (though 11 seats still to declare), in some cases by large margins, and very nearly lost two in my former patch. They've lost in Coventry but may well win the overall West Mids results. They've piled up lots of votes in seats they already held, but seemingly failed to break through in depressed areas like Mansfield. It's a good Tory result but a reasonable Labour defence so far - but let's see the final results before concluding anything.
Heroic spinning from Labour (1): getting shellacked nearly everywhere but bigging up the fact that they survived in bits of South Wales.
Heroic spinning from Labour (2): being shredded by the SNP in Glasgow, but claiming their opponents will have failed if they can't get an absolute majority in a very hard to win STV election.
I think about the only thing they have going for them today is that they're doing miles better than Ukip.
Labour have done quite well in Norfolk!
Squeezing the Green vote in Norwich?
I can't see them getting all that far anywhere else.
Yes, Greens have collapsed in Norwich, no chance of them even taking second in June Lewis safe as houses
Heroic spinning from Labour (1): getting shellacked nearly everywhere but bigging up the fact that they survived in bits of South Wales.
Heroic spinning from Labour (2): being shredded by the SNP in Glasgow, but claiming their opponents will have failed if they can't get an absolute majority in a very hard to win STV election.
I think about the only thing they have going for them today is that they're doing miles better than Ukip.
Labour have done quite well in Norfolk!
Squeezing the Green vote in Norwich?
I can't see them getting all that far anywhere else.
Comments
@Alan_Cochrane: Tartan Tories who defected to SNP in Perthshire, Ayrshire and North East are going 'home'. Why? Simple: Nicola and threat of indyref2.
Lib Dem 37.15%
Labour 37.07%
Conservative 14.8%
Green 8.2%
UKIP 0.7%
Ind 2.0%
Gavin Corbett (Green)
Andrew Johnston (Con)
David Key (SNP)
Turnout 54% #edincount
@BraidenHT: First Minister's father Robin Sturgeon hasn't made it in North Ayrshire. On second time of asking. #GCC17
https://twitter.com/adbritton/status/860463554889228288
Walsall have voted 49.5% Conservative and 34.9% Labour in first stage of #wmmayor election
Corbyn will stay on until the GE (there's little point in getting rid of him before then anyway).
But it's not over yet ...
A 7.2% swing needed to take Walsall North, and 2.6% to take Walsall South.
Taking both seats would indicate a Tory landslide.
Alfred Jodl: "He's moving divisions around that exist only on his map."
Downfall film.
@Carlaw4Eastwood: Congratulations to Paul Aitken on becoming first Conservative Cllr in Barrhead in 25 years. Looking good for @PM4EastRen on June 8th.
This is I think, like Holyrood, a SCon surge based on differential turnout.
Heroic spinning from Labour (2): being shredded by the SNP in Glasgow, but claiming their opponents will have failed if they can't get an absolute majority in a very hard to win STV election.
I think about the only thing they have going for them today is that they're doing miles better than Ukip.
https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/860460523791548416
In this case, it is worse. We already know how crap Diane is.
It is kinda ironic that the deeply anti-Tory SNP is largely responsible for, well, a Tory revival in Scotland.
Locally the local Labour Councils are suffering from the council cut backs so between that and a lack of effort in getting out the vote I don't think Labour losing it is that big a surprise.
Also given that the main topic seemed to be a local airport that only flies to Amsterdam and Aberdeen I don't think its the most relevant election for most people
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/labour-local-elections-jeremy-corbyn-momentum-a7719456.html
So far, there's enough 'good' for his fans and wider Labour to point at. And that's probably another victory for the Conservtives today ...
Another predictable comment from yet another left-leaning psephologist!
Tis only a flash wound
I stood in the polling booth yesterday with my pencil poised over the Ukip candidate and thought "What's the point now?" Ah bless, I decided, and gave them a sympathy vote.
I'm all heart.
ITN:"There are actually 125 net losses so far"
DA: "Last time I looked we had net losses of 100”
"Labour: Not UKIP"
Karen Doran (Lab)
Claire Miller (Green)
Jo Mowat (Con)
Alasdair Rankin (SNP)
Turnout 43.7%
#edincount
I can't see them getting all that far anywhere else.
I still think 4 to 6 seats more likely.
General Election
Nick Cook (Con)
Melanie Main (Green)
Neil Ross (Lib Dem)
Mandy Watt (Lab)
Turnout 57.3%
#edincount
Street (Con): 75578
Simon (Lab): 95098
LD: 14,840
Ukip: 7537
Green: 9787 pic.twitter.com/Omgp2gQvup
CON: 36.9%
LDEM: 7.2%
GRN: 4.8%
UKIP: 3.7%
SIMON in the bag
Lewis safe as houses
In a GE they are, and that's likely to put more of them off.
So no matter how bad this looks for Labour, it is likely that on June 8th it will be worse.