I am trying to be fair but today's stump speech by Corbyn was so amateur. He arrives and he stands with his back to the cameras, someone grabs him and swivels him to the camera, starts his speech with mic not working, then delivers his usual rant, and all set in a field somewhere
But we know, from all the posters in them, that the fields vote Tory. He is bravely taking the fight onto their, er, turf....
What is Zac going to do when the Government continues with plans for Heathrow?
Resign and then stand in the by-election. He would look stupid if he didn't. Why was it important to resign last time and not this time ?
But he has to win first.
Which is why the local Tories were f***ing idiots to pick him again.
A generic CCHQ candidate would be better than someone who quit the party six months ago, caused an unnecessary by-election which he lost as an independent, then begged to return to the fold. Why he's even still a member after that debacle I have no idea.
I see Mr Verhofstadt will not accept "Social Dumping" in any agreement. The EU really, really, doesn't want its own citizens back.
This is where the substance of the negotiations will be.
The EU will want the UK to heavily tie its own hands on regulation in exchange for a goods and services deal, so it can't benefit from taking a different course, and is obliged to transpose future EU directives/regulations into UK law without having a vote in any of them.
In other words: a surrogate EEA sans free movement.
The question to which we don't yet have an answer is to what extent Theresa May will be able to put boundaries on this in the negotiations, and whether she will exercise that choice even if she can.
I think she will take it because her political prizes are formally ending free movement, formally quitting ECJ oversight, and going for new trade deals, whilst minimising economic damage and maintaining the Union.
I think this is for the FTA negotiations, which will happen after Brexit, probably a long time after it. Any "transition" arrangement will be on current EU terms, according to the EU paper. The EU will offer a "transition" arrangement on a close to "take it or leave it" basis.
The whole point of the transition agreement is that it transitions to the new FTA, not to nothing, and the draft European Council guidelines note this.
But we have NOT left yet. It is a simple matter of fact, and the full effects of Brexit are unknowable until we HAVE fully left, something which now looks to be in the 2020s with all the talk of transitional arrangements and such like.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Project Fear seems to have died down for now, but I still haven't heard anyone say "we got it wrong". I wonder how many years it will take for people to concede that they hyped it way too much?
Growth will be down to 0.5 or 0.4 tomorrow and it will all start up again. Its tedious.
I'm feeling pretty comfortable about our bet, by the way.
I am not as comfortable as I was but still reasonably confident.
My confidence has been boosted by the IMF raising UK growth forecasts.
Golly how thick is that? the purpose of the election is to secure a big enough majority for May to have flexibility re Brexit and stop the idiot LDs et al from trying to mess up the negotiations.
How a party with 8 MPs can mess up the Brexit negotiations is not immediately apparent.
Several dozen Tory headbangers otoh..
Christ, the knuckle-dragging, headbanging 'Brexit-means-Brexit' crowd are really determined to drink their own Kool-Aid here aren't they?
Because the Brexit negotiations are political not economic, the only leverage we have is the potential that - treated fairly - goodwill may persist, and the UK may rejoin the EU in the next 10-15 years. Sort of like a sabbatical whilst we take some time off and get over the last of our colonial baggage.
However, if the rest of Europe feels that a hardline government is now in power with a massive majority which is determined to close off ties with Europe and try to turn the clock back, then there is no choice but to play hardball, and make the break as quick and clean as possible, with all that entails for our trade, migrant community and standing in the world.
Personally, I'd go with a pluralistic parliament with vibrant debate and differences of opinion over some sort of 'we're all united behind Teresa' ahead of negotiations, but that doesn't look very likely...
If you seriously think that within a decade or so of leaving the UK is going to rejoin ... or that the EU hopes this is a hokey cokey Brexit and is waiting for us to rejoin ... then you're the one overdosing on Kool-Aid.
Precisely. The EU-phile side lost - narrowly, yes - despite having the status quo advantage. It sure as hell won't win without it.
Eurosceptics have had 20 years of fighting against people who for the most part tried to avoid the argument rather than win the argument. They are not used to being seriously challenged, and the most serious challenge of all is of course the fact that they now need to deliver.
I'm on my phone, but in brief, Eurozone banks are back stopped by the ECB in the same way that British banks are by the BoE. So long as the ECB is willing to lend to a bank, then that bank lives. There is no way that "The City" could meaningfully pull the plug on the Eurozone banking sector. (Not least because the UK, in aggregate, needs to import capital from the Eurozone.)
Where does the BIS fit in? Don't they have a role in ensuring capital adequacy for both the BoE and the ECB?
Also, if you have time, the Clubs of Paris and London? (I've noticed that the Paris Club is on the syllabus for student economists in several third world countries, whereas an acquaintance who got bachelor's and master's degrees in economics in a Scandinavian country told me she had never heard of it.)
Agree with you on the Lender of Last resort, and the fact that the ECB can QE the banks. But as we know the Germans put great store by that fact that they are not using Banknotes for their Kites. The political will in the North to bail out Southern banks in perpetuity is not there. And as banks don't have an Interest Rate environment and the economic growth where they can make money and turn around the Zombie companies on their books they will have to borrow elsewhere. The BOE due to the drop in Sterling and a growing economy could quite easily raise rates by a hundred basis points or so to attract capital in a part of the world where the banks now charge you to keep your cash rather than paying interest. They can keep the economy ticking over, and still keep GBP at a level where UK products offer a saving greater than the WTO tarrifs that would apply on something like cars (around 10%).
As an aside, I saw a sign here in Vienna yesterday in a furniture store "Take advantage of Brexit prices". Wierdly it was in English.
What is Zac going to do when the Government continues with plans for Heathrow?
Resign and then stand in the by-election. He would look stupid if he didn't. Why was it important to resign last time and not this time ?
But he has to win first.
Which is why the local Tories were f***ing idiots to pick him again.
A generic CCHQ candidate would be better than someone who quit the party six months ago, caused an unnecessary by-election which he lost as an independent, then begged to return to the fold. Why he's even still a member after that debacle I have no idea.
If I lived in Richmond Park, on polling day, I'd walk to the polling station, and write a rude word next to Zac's name, and put a message
'Dear Acting Returning Officer, this is NOT a clear preference for that cock-cum-bellend Zac Goldsmith'
There's no way she can slap a 35% tax on Polish imports, even if it made sense.
She isn't saying she would single Poland out, so if she applies it across the board, to certain types of imports from plants that have been (recently) outsourced from France, could she keep within WTO "most favoured nation" requirements? Just asking.
She claims to want to stay in the EU, so EU rules mainly. In practice she wouldn't be able to do it outside of the EU either, as we will find out. France sells a lot of stuff to Poland. Airbus planes for example. Poland is francophile historically.
If true, it is a classic and quite revealing bit of Theresa May in action. David Cameron might’ve proclaimed a liberal project like this, maybe even risked a fight with his grassroots over it (in the early days of his leadership, at least). Theresa May, by contrast, prefers to get the job done without fuss or, depending on how you look at it, without scrutiny.
If true, it is a classic and quite revealing bit of Theresa May in action. David Cameron might’ve proclaimed a liberal project like this, maybe even risked a fight with his grassroots over it (in the early days of his leadership, at least). Theresa May, by contrast, prefers to get the job done without fuss or, depending on how you look at it, without scrutiny.
But we have NOT left yet. It is a simple matter of fact, and the full effects of Brexit are unknowable until we HAVE fully left, something which now looks to be in the 2020s with all the talk of transitional arrangements and such like.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Project Fear seems to have died down for now, but I still haven't heard anyone say "we got it wrong". I wonder how many years it will take for people to concede that they hyped it way too much?
Growth will be down to 0.5 or 0.4 tomorrow and it will all start up again. Its tedious.
I'm feeling pretty comfortable about our bet, by the way.
I am not as comfortable as I was but still reasonably confident.
My confidence has been boosted by the IMF raising UK growth forecasts.
The whole point of the transition agreement is that it transitions to the new FTA, not to nothing, and the draft European Council guidelines note this.
It will take effect by GE2022.
That is why they call it a transition agreement. But the final direction will only be agreed in principle by Brexit date. The transition is currently limited by the EU parliament to three years. That gives businesses five years to get used to the EU without the UK. They can't get used to the UK in the new arrangement because it won't have happened yet. Expect the EU not to have any great sense of urgency about the ultimate FTA. In the meantime they can turn the screws, if they wish.
But we have NOT left yet. It is a simple matter of fact, and the full effects of Brexit are unknowable until we HAVE fully left, something which now looks to be in the 2020s with all the talk of transitional arrangements and such like.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Project Fear seems to have died down for now, but I still haven't heard anyone say "we got it wrong". I wonder how many years it will take for people to concede that they hyped it way too much?
Growth will be down to 0.5 or 0.4 tomorrow and it will all start up again. Its tedious.
I'm feeling pretty comfortable about our bet, by the way.
I am not as comfortable as I was but still reasonably confident.
My confidence has been boosted by the IMF raising UK growth forecasts.
That was a moment of concern, I will grant you. But they can't be wrong every time...Can they?
I'm on my phone, but in brief, Eurozone banks are back stopped by the ECB in the same way that British banks are by the BoE. So long as the ECB is willing to lend to a bank, then that bank lives. There is no way that "The City" could meaningfully pull the plug on the Eurozone banking sector. (Not least because the UK, in aggregate, needs to import capital from the Eurozone.)
Where does the BIS fit in? Don't they have a role in ensuring capital adequacy for both the BoE and the ECB?
Also, if you have time, the Clubs of Paris and London? (I've noticed that the Paris Club is on the syllabus for student economists in several third world countries, whereas an acquaintance who got bachelor's and master's degrees in economics in a Scandinavian country told me she had never heard of it.)
The Bank of International Settlements (where I nearly ended up working in 1996... lucky escape there...) has two jobs: Firstly, is the international 'club' where bank rules on capital adequacy are set. Secondly, it (can) act an intermediary between central banks, and takes deposits from them. The BIS is entirely owned by central banks. (Fun fact: the BIS used to have a very small number of shares that were publicly traded.)
So Macron lives in the real world while Le Pen is a cross between Corbyn and Trump?
I watched a view minutes of Macron debating with the workers at the Whirlpool factory and he came across very well. Whether you like him or not, or agree with him or not, he is no Hillary Clinton or Justin Trudeau.
...and the French stock exchange is at a 9 year high on the presumption he's going to win.
The whole point of the transition agreement is that it transitions to the new FTA, not to nothing, and the draft European Council guidelines note this.
It will take effect by GE2022.
That is why they call it a transition agreement. But the final direction will only be agreed in principle by Brexit date. The transition is currently limited by the EU parliament to three years. That gives businesses five years to get used to the EU without the UK. They can't get used to the UK in the new arrangement because it won't have happened yet. Expect the EU not to have any great sense of urgency about the ultimate FTA. In the meantime they can turn the screws, if they wish.
I expect negotiations on both to be concluded by the expiry of the A50 period, following which the transition period will commence.
There may well be, of course, details to be finessed during that transition phase.
Well he keep insisting on going to places where the SNP and Tories are super strong, no wonder he thinks it is even worse than the polling suggests ;-)
There's no way she can slap a 35% tax on Polish imports, even if it made sense.
She isn't saying she would single Poland out, so if she applies it across the board, to certain types of imports from plants that have been (recently) outsourced from France, could she keep within WTO "most favoured nation" requirements? Just asking.
No. France doesn't even have a seat on the WTO. She'd be breaking Single Market rules.
But we have NOT left yet. It is a simple matter of fact, and the full effects of Brexit are unknowable until we HAVE fully left, something which now looks to be in the 2020s with all the talk of transitional arrangements and such like.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Project Fear seems to have died down for now, but I still haven't heard anyone say "we got it wrong". I wonder how many years it will take for people to concede that they hyped it way too much?
Growth will be down to 0.5 or 0.4 tomorrow and it will all start up again. Its tedious.
I'm feeling pretty comfortable about our bet, by the way.
I am not as comfortable as I was but still reasonably confident.
My confidence has been boosted by the IMF raising UK growth forecasts.
That was a moment of concern, I will grant you. But they can't be wrong every time...Can they?
I think if the IMF just predicted 1.5% GDP growth for every country, every year, they would be more accurate.
If the post 2015 election adjustments had not been made , it is likely that this Yougov poll would have shown a Tory lead of circa 12% - a big margin but not quite out of sight as it were. Some commentators have suggested that the pollsters may have overcompensated following their 2015 debacle and as a consequence are flattering the Tories a bit. Time will tell - but worth bearing in mind.
Tony Blair, the former Labour prime minister, has given an interview to Sky’s Adam Boulton. He said that he was not advising people not to vote Labour, but he refused to endorse Jeremy Corbyn and he said that Theresa May would win.
Dame Angela Rumbold thought she was going to increase her majority in 1997. Things often feel nice on doorsteps because the British are by and large polite folk. Finally he's got to say that really hasn't he.
If true, it is a classic and quite revealing bit of Theresa May in action. David Cameron might’ve proclaimed a liberal project like this, maybe even risked a fight with his grassroots over it (in the early days of his leadership, at least). Theresa May, by contrast, prefers to get the job done without fuss or, depending on how you look at it, without scrutiny.
That's quite a perceptive comment I think. May is a below the water line kind of gal.
The comment Carlotta cut out is equally perceptive:
One Westminster source said: “never underestimate her own little psychodrama” of not doing things the way David Cameron did them.
Yes, I found some of the pettiness in the early days troublesome. And I think she will regret having frozen out Osborne. We can only hope she grows in the job because she is likely to have it for a while.
On topic, the Brexit right or wrong poll has been MoE for ages. It will take time for people (on either side) to accept they were wrong. In particular, it will take either a recession or an unexpectedly strong period of growth and relatively smooth sailing on a deal.
Until then, I think we can say a non-trivial minority of voters feel very strongly they were right, and this will have a strong influence in seats which were strongly one way (60%+) and where the MP is clearly identified with one side. It's worth noting, however, that when you ask about people's big issue on the doorstep, only a (large-ish) minority say Brexit. Schools, NHS and other matters remain very big.
I see the individual constituency betting markets are now up.Anyone know if the books will accept multiples,doubles,trebles etc as I,like many other smaller punters,will not back singles at odds-on?
If I can squeeze in between the fascinating posts arguing about something that was decided nine months ago, a little light relief. The Times is today carrying a story that Labour Party HQ staff are considering going on strike if Corbyn doesn't resign after losing the GE in June.
If the post 2015 election adjustments had not been made , it is likely that this Yougov poll would have shown a Tory lead of circa 12% - a big margin but not quite out of sight as it were. Some commentators have suggested that the pollsters may have overcompensated following their 2015 debacle and as a consequence are flattering the Tories a bit. Time will tell - but worth bearing in mind.
We don't call you Short Straws for nothing....no mention of a the 1896 by-election in Torquay to back up your claim?
I see the individual constituency betting markets are now up.Anyone know if the books will accept multiples,doubles,trebles etc as I,like many other smaller punters,will not back singles at odds-on?
Tony Blair, the former Labour prime minister, has given an interview to Sky’s Adam Boulton. He said that he was not advising people not to vote Labour, but he refused to endorse Jeremy Corbyn and he said that Theresa May would win.
If I can squeeze in between the fascinating posts arguing about something that was decided nine months ago, a little light relief. The Times is today carrying a story that Labour Party HQ staff are considering going on strike if Corbyn doesn't resign after losing the GE in June.
The European Union will reach a free trade deal with Britain after the country leaves, the bloc's trade commissioner said on Thursday.
"It's uncharted territory but I'm sure we will solve it. We will have a free trade agreement, that is for sure," Cecilia Malmstrom told a conference in Copenhagen.
When asked again whether she was certain, Malmstrom said: "Of course".
The whole point of the transition agreement is that it transitions to the new FTA, not to nothing, and the draft European Council guidelines note this.
It will take effect by GE2022.
That is why they call it a transition agreement. But the final direction will only be agreed in principle by Brexit date. The transition is currently limited by the EU parliament to three years. That gives businesses five years to get used to the EU without the UK. They can't get used to the UK in the new arrangement because it won't have happened yet. Expect the EU not to have any great sense of urgency about the ultimate FTA. In the meantime they can turn the screws, if they wish.
I expect negotiations on both to be concluded by the expiry of the A50 period, following which the transition period will commence.
There may well be, of course, details to be finessed during that transition phase.
I see the individual constituency betting markets are now up.Anyone know if the books will accept multiples,doubles,trebles etc as I,like many other smaller punters,will not back singles at odds-on?
Tony Blair, the former Labour prime minister, has given an interview to Sky’s Adam Boulton. He said that he was not advising people not to vote Labour, but he refused to endorse Jeremy Corbyn and he said that Theresa May would win.
I am not sure that him, Mandy and Bad Al realize what damage they do. I know Jezza is doing a great job of wrecking the Labour brand, but the evil trio ain't very popular either.
The European Union will reach a free trade deal with Britain after the country leaves, the bloc's trade commissioner said on Thursday.
"It's uncharted territory but I'm sure we will solve it. We will have a free trade agreement, that is for sure," Cecilia Malmstrom told a conference in Copenhagen.
When asked again whether she was certain, Malmstrom said: "Of course".
I see HMG is has agreed to stay in the ECHR for at least the next 5 years. Good luck with TM's aspiration of getting immigration down to "tens of thousands" if that is the case, Article 8 is hideously abused to allow vast numbers of rejected asylum seekers and other illegals to stay indefinitely.
If I can squeeze in between the fascinating posts arguing about something that was decided nine months ago, a little light relief. The Times is today carrying a story that Labour Party HQ staff are considering going on strike if Corbyn doesn't resign after losing the GE in June.
That won't budge him, would any one notice if the Labour Party HQ staff went on strike?
If I can squeeze in between the fascinating posts arguing about something that was decided nine months ago, a little light relief. The Times is today carrying a story that Labour Party HQ staff are considering going on strike if Corbyn doesn't resign after losing the GE in June.
Given how fond of a picket line Jezza is, he would probably see it as he turned up for work and try and join it.
I must say, the Labour staff's wheeze of sending Corbyn to totally irrelelevant seats and directing him only to the doorsteps of super-loyal Labour voters where he can't do any harm is very smart.
I see the individual constituency betting markets are now up.Anyone know if the books will accept multiples,doubles,trebles etc as I,like many other smaller punters,will not back singles at odds-on?
I must say, the Labour staff's wheeze of sending Corbyn to totally irrelelevant seats and directing him only to the doorsteps of super-loyal Labour voters where he can't do any harm is very smart.
Mrs Duffy was a super loyal Labour voter....6 weeks still to go.
Tony Blair, the former Labour prime minister, has given an interview to Sky’s Adam Boulton. He said that he was not advising people not to vote Labour, but he refused to endorse Jeremy Corbyn and he said that Theresa May would win.
I am not sure that him, Mandy and Bad Al realize what damage they do. I know Jezza is doing a great job of wrecking the Labour brand, but the evil trio ain't very popular either.
We wouldn't be Brexiting if it wasn't for Blair yet he shows absolutely no contrition or remorse at all...
What puzzles me is if the SNP get c.45% & 50+ seats - SCON get c.25-30% & 5+ seats - does that not make SCON the loser? Thereby strengthening the case for Indyref2.
Tony Blair, the former Labour prime minister, has given an interview to Sky’s Adam Boulton. He said that he was not advising people not to vote Labour, but he refused to endorse Jeremy Corbyn and he said that Theresa May would win.
I am not sure that him, Mandy and Bad Al realize what damage they do. I know Jezza is doing a great job of wrecking the Labour brand, but the evil trio ain't very popular either.
We wouldn't be Brexiting if it wasn't for Blair yet he shows absolutely no contrition or remorse at all...
Absolutely. Also, they had a golden opportunity to improve the country. Perfect economic conditions, some reasonably talented politicians, a civil service that was receptive. Instead it was wasted.
I must say, the Labour staff's wheeze of sending Corbyn to totally irrelelevant seats and directing him only to the doorsteps of super-loyal Labour voters where he can't do any harm is very smart.
Mrs Duffy was a super loyal Labour voter....6 weeks still to go.
I'm still waiting to hear which way Mrs Duffy is going for Election 2017!
The Republic was going to fall because of the rise of strong dynasties and army loyalty shifting from the old SPQR to individual generals.
Stretching old rules on age of consuls and repeated consulships happened back with... Aemilianus, I think, who was illegally allowed to take the lead of armies when an Iberian campaign was going poorly. Must've been almost a century prior to Caesar becoming dictator for life.
@PolhomeEditor: Alex Salmond tells Sky News: "There's strong support in Scotland for independence and very strong support for the SNP."
@PolhomeEditor: Alex Salmond: "One of the issues in Scotland will be to back our parliament's right to decide when to have an independence referendum."
@PolhomeEditor: Alex Salmond says general election will "reinforce the mandate" of Holyrood to hold a second referendum. Has he told Nicola?
Lord oh lord. The flexibility needed is in relation to the UK terms. the best chance of a bearable Brexit lies in ensuring that idiot snipers like you have no power to vote her down.
That's Bollocks as well.
So far Parliament has rubber stamped every Brexit bill Tezza has offered them
What puzzles me is if the SNP get c.45% & 50+ seats - SCON get c.25-30% & 5+ seats - does that not make SCON the loser? Thereby strengthening the case for Indyref2.
But what if the Unionist parties SCon, Labour + Lib Dems get 56% of the vote and the Indy parties SNP + Green get 44%, albeit the vast majority of the seats? Who is the winner then?
I don't think the answer is entirely straightforward.
Tony Blair, the former Labour prime minister, has given an interview to Sky’s Adam Boulton. He said that he was not advising people not to vote Labour, but he refused to endorse Jeremy Corbyn and he said that Theresa May would win.
I am not sure that him, Mandy and Bad Al realize what damage they do. I know Jezza is doing a great job of wrecking the Labour brand, but the evil trio ain't very popular either.
We wouldn't be Brexiting if it wasn't for Blair yet he shows absolutely no contrition or remorse at all...
Absolutely. Also, they had a golden opportunity to improve the country. Perfect economic conditions, some reasonably talented politicians, a civil service that was receptive. Instead it was wasted.
It's fascinating to ponder whether New Labour would have genuinely reformed the country in it's second term had 9/11 not happened which took the government off on a completely unexpected path which resulted in the Iraq debacle?
I'd say probably not because to do that Blair would've needed a different Chancellor... Brown was always a road-block to true reform... If he'd got rid of Brown after his 2001 landslide and 9/11 hadn't happened the country would be very different now.
What puzzles me is if the SNP get c.45% & 50+ seats - SCON get c.25-30% & 5+ seats - does that not make SCON the loser? Thereby strengthening the case for Indyref2.
You might think so, but the PB Yoon electoral calculator say NO!!!
I think the rough conversion rate is currently around 1 vote for Rape Clause Ruth & the nasty party = 2 votes for the EssEnnPee. Of course if Ruth's fortunes take a dip, we can expect the conversion rate to adjust automatically.
Tony Blair, the former Labour prime minister, has given an interview to Sky’s Adam Boulton. He said that he was not advising people not to vote Labour, but he refused to endorse Jeremy Corbyn and he said that Theresa May would win.
I am not sure that him, Mandy and Bad Al realize what damage they do. I know Jezza is doing a great job of wrecking the Labour brand, but the evil trio ain't very popular either.
We wouldn't be Brexiting if it wasn't for Blair yet he shows absolutely no contrition or remorse at all...
Absolutely. Also, they had a golden opportunity to improve the country. Perfect economic conditions, some reasonably talented politicians, a civil service that was receptive. Instead it was wasted.
Perfect economic conditions because Gordon Brown steered us through turndowns -- it was this that led to the idea that Keynesian management could override boom and bust.
The election in Scotland will once again be different to England and Wales.
It'll be COMPLETELY about Indyref2.
FMQs, right now
@BBCPhilipSim: Willie Rennie asks if FM "thinks we're all buttoned up the back"; says FM refused to say that election is about Indy; notes Alex Salmond has
@BBCPhilipSim: Willie Rennie - with a bonus line about a "Hell's Angels tour of the central belt" - tells FM to "cancel" indyref2 and "get back to her job"
What puzzles me is if the SNP get c.45% & 50+ seats - SCON get c.25-30% & 5+ seats - does that not make SCON the loser? Thereby strengthening the case for Indyref2.
But what if the Unionist parties SCon, Labour + Lib Dems get 56% of the vote and the Indy parties SNP + Green get 44%, albeit the vast majority of the seats? Who is the winner then?
I don't think the answer is entirely straightforward.
As this is WM election - FPTP seats seem most relevant - otherwise leaves the legiticimay of the last Tory govt in doubt !
Dame Angela Rumbold thought she was going to increase her majority in 1997. Things often feel nice on doorsteps because the British are by and large polite folk. Finally he's got to say that really hasn't he.
It's partly spin and it's partly candidate-itis.
If you're on the doorsteps with the MP, of course you beckon him or her over to say "hi" to a supporter (or sympathetic waverer). It reinforces the support (you've personally promised the person on the ballot paper so feel obliged) and the voter tells people over the water cooler "I had that X on the doorstep yesterday - seems a good sort".
You don't beckon them over to people who are hostile. It's a waste of time even if the door is open long enough.
So the MP sees many more sympathetic people. Also, on the doors they knock on, people find it harder to say "no - I don't like you" to the candidate than to the candidate's representative.
But people like Rumbold or Jezza surely know this. It's not their first rodeo. So there's a bit of spin there as well as the fact that the experience of being a candidate isn't the same as being a foot soldier.
Tony Blair, the former Labour prime minister, has given an interview to Sky’s Adam Boulton. He said that he was not advising people not to vote Labour, but he refused to endorse Jeremy Corbyn and he said that Theresa May would win.
I am not sure that him, Mandy and Bad Al realize what damage they do. I know Jezza is doing a great job of wrecking the Labour brand, but the evil trio ain't very popular either.
We wouldn't be Brexiting if it wasn't for Blair yet he shows absolutely no contrition or remorse at all...
Absolutely. Also, they had a golden opportunity to improve the country. Perfect economic conditions, some reasonably talented politicians, a civil service that was receptive. Instead it was wasted.
It's fascinating to ponder whether New Labour would have genuinely reformed the country in it's second term had 9/11 not happened which took the government off on a completely unexpected path which resulted in the Iraq debacle?
I'd say probably not because to do that Blair would've needed a different Chancellor... Brown was always a road-block to true reform... If he'd got rid of Brown after his 2001 landslide and 9/11 hadn't happened the country would be very different now.
Imagine if Tony hadn't told Frank Field to think the unthinkable then sacked him for doing so. I bet our benefits system would be in a lot better shape.
Tony Blair, the former Labour prime minister, has given an interview to Sky’s Adam Boulton. He said that he was not advising people not to vote Labour, but he refused to endorse Jeremy Corbyn and he said that Theresa May would win.
I am not sure that him, Mandy and Bad Al realize what damage they do. I know Jezza is doing a great job of wrecking the Labour brand, but the evil trio ain't very popular either.
We wouldn't be Brexiting if it wasn't for Blair yet he shows absolutely no contrition or remorse at all...
Absolutely. Also, they had a golden opportunity to improve the country. Perfect economic conditions, some reasonably talented politicians, a civil service that was receptive. Instead it was wasted.
Perfect economic conditions because Gordon Brown steered us through turndowns -- it was this that led to the idea that Keynesian management could override boom and bust.
Gordon claimed repeatedly he had abolished boom and bust...and never gave Keynes ant credit :-)
I wonder whether the Greens might graciously withdraw from Twickenham in return for the LibDems' decision not to stand in Brighton Pav? It would be a fair exchange, at zero cost to both parties.
Either way, I think the 1.9 on Vince (BFs), or the 1.8 from Sky, is a respectable bet.
Comments
A generic CCHQ candidate would be better than someone who quit the party six months ago, caused an unnecessary by-election which he lost as an independent, then begged to return to the fold. Why he's even still a member after that debacle I have no idea.
It will take effect by GE2022.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/love-is-a-stranger-in-an-open-car/
As an aside, I saw a sign here in Vienna yesterday in a furniture store "Take advantage of Brexit prices". Wierdly it was in English.
'Dear Acting Returning Officer, this is NOT a clear preference for that cock-cum-bellend Zac Goldsmith'
Leicester west is re-count territory for Labour on GE night, IF polls are right it is Tory 46% lab 24%.
European Commissioner for trade Cecilia Malmstrom says the EU will reach a free trade deal with the UK after Brexit 'for sure'
Germany charges account holders.
One Westminster source said: “never underestimate her own little psychodrama” of not doing things the way David Cameron did them.
There may well be, of course, details to be finessed during that transition phase.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-retail-idUKKBN17T1C2?il=0
Until then, I think we can say a non-trivial minority of voters feel very strongly they were right, and this will have a strong influence in seats which were strongly one way (60%+) and where the MP is clearly identified with one side. It's worth noting, however, that when you ask about people's big issue on the doorstep, only a (large-ish) minority say Brexit. Schools, NHS and other matters remain very big.
http://news.sky.com/story/ge2017-tony-blair-says-theresa-may-will-win-the-general-election-10852628
"It's uncharted territory but I'm sure we will solve it. We will have a free trade agreement, that is for sure," Cecilia Malmstrom told a conference in Copenhagen.
When asked again whether she was certain, Malmstrom said: "Of course".
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-trade-britain-idUKKBN17T1HN?il=0
an overall understanding on the framework for the future relationship could be identified during a second phase of the negotiations under Article 50.
As the learned Lily Allen said, "I'm packing plastic, And that's why my life is so fucking fantastic."
I think we should be told...
Stretching old rules on age of consuls and repeated consulships happened back with... Aemilianus, I think, who was illegally allowed to take the lead of armies when an Iberian campaign was going poorly. Must've been almost a century prior to Caesar becoming dictator for life.
@PolhomeEditor: Alex Salmond tells Sky News: "There's strong support in Scotland for independence and very strong support for the SNP."
@PolhomeEditor: Alex Salmond: "One of the issues in Scotland will be to back our parliament's right to decide when to have an independence referendum."
@PolhomeEditor: Alex Salmond says general election will "reinforce the mandate" of Holyrood to hold a second referendum. Has he told Nicola?
So far Parliament has rubber stamped every Brexit bill Tezza has offered them
I don't think the answer is entirely straightforward.
I'd say probably not because to do that Blair would've needed a different Chancellor... Brown was always a road-block to true reform... If he'd got rid of Brown after his 2001 landslide and 9/11 hadn't happened the country would be very different now.
I was looking forward to turning on the news to see Jeremy Corbyn looking like a wally in a field, and what do I get instead?
Alex Bloody Salmond, whining on about Indyref2. Oh, and he mentioned Syria.
I think the rough conversion rate is currently around 1 vote for Rape Clause Ruth & the nasty party = 2 votes for the EssEnnPee. Of course if Ruth's fortunes take a dip, we can expect the conversion rate to adjust automatically.
It'll be COMPLETELY about Indyref2.
Oh, wait...
@BBCPhilipSim: Willie Rennie asks if FM "thinks we're all buttoned up the back"; says FM refused to say that election is about Indy; notes Alex Salmond has
@BBCPhilipSim: Willie Rennie - with a bonus line about a "Hell's Angels tour of the central belt" - tells FM to "cancel" indyref2 and "get back to her job"
If you're on the doorsteps with the MP, of course you beckon him or her over to say "hi" to a supporter (or sympathetic waverer). It reinforces the support (you've personally promised the person on the ballot paper so feel obliged) and the voter tells people over the water cooler "I had that X on the doorstep yesterday - seems a good sort".
You don't beckon them over to people who are hostile. It's a waste of time even if the door is open long enough.
So the MP sees many more sympathetic people. Also, on the doors they knock on, people find it harder to say "no - I don't like you" to the candidate than to the candidate's representative.
But people like Rumbold or Jezza surely know this. It's not their first rodeo. So there's a bit of spin there as well as the fact that the experience of being a candidate isn't the same as being a foot soldier.
Either way, I think the 1.9 on Vince (BFs), or the 1.8 from Sky, is a respectable bet.