What puzzles me is if the SNP get c.45% & 50+ seats - SCON get c.25-30% & 5+ seats - does that not make SCON the loser? Thereby strengthening the case for Indyref2.
But what if the Unionist parties SCon, Labour + Lib Dems get 56% of the vote and the Indy parties SNP + Green get 44%, albeit the vast majority of the seats? Who is the winner then?
I don't think the answer is entirely straightforward.
As this is WM election - FPTP seats seem most relevant - otherwise leaves the legiticimay of the last Tory govt in doubt !
It's not inconsistent to say both:
1. almost all individual seats preferred an SNP MP to represent their interests in Westminster, not just on constitutional matters but on schools, hospitals, defence etc; and
2. most people voted for a unionist rather than nationalist party, and that has a bearing on whether and when there ought to be another referendum.
Tony Blair, the former Labour prime minister, has given an interview to Sky’s Adam Boulton. He said that he was not advising people not to vote Labour, but he refused to endorse Jeremy Corbyn and he said that Theresa May would win.
I am not sure that him, Mandy and Bad Al realize what damage they do. I know Jezza is doing a great job of wrecking the Labour brand, but the evil trio ain't very popular either.
We wouldn't be Brexiting if it wasn't for Blair yet he shows absolutely no contrition or remorse at all...
Absolutely. Also, they had a golden opportunity to improve the country. Perfect economic conditions, some reasonably talented politicians, a civil service that was receptive. Instead it was wasted.
Perfect economic conditions because Gordon Brown steered us through turndowns -- it was this that led to the idea that Keynesian management could override boom and bust.
Gordon claimed repeatedly he had abolished boom and bust...and never gave Keynes ant credit :-)
I wonder whether the Greens might graciously withdraw from Twickenham in return for the LibDems' decision not to stand in Brighton Pav? It would be a fair exchange, at zero cost to both parties.
Either way, I think the 1.9 on Vince (BFs), or the 1.8 from Sky, is a respectable bet.
It's a goody if you're short Lib Dems on the spreads or bands in particular.
Tony Blair, the former Labour prime minister, has given an interview to Sky’s Adam Boulton. He said that he was not advising people not to vote Labour, but he refused to endorse Jeremy Corbyn and he said that Theresa May would win.
I am not sure that him, Mandy and Bad Al realize what damage they do. I know Jezza is doing a great job of wrecking the Labour brand, but the evil trio ain't very popular either.
We wouldn't be Brexiting if it wasn't for Blair yet he shows absolutely no contrition or remorse at all...
Absolutely. Also, they had a golden opportunity to improve the country. Perfect economic conditions, some reasonably talented politicians, a civil service that was receptive. Instead it was wasted.
Perfect economic conditions because Gordon Brown steered us through turndowns -- it was this that led to the idea that Keynesian management could override boom and bust.
Gordon claimed repeatedly he had abolished boom and bust...and never gave Keynes ant credit :-)
Tory boom and bust as I recall.
I always thought his biggest clanger was this:
‘I will not allow house prices to get out of control and put at risk the sustainability of the recovery.’
Strictly speaking he could argue that by handing monetary policy and bank supervision to other entities he merely allowed other people to let it get out of control.
I wonder whether the Greens might graciously withdraw from Twickenham in return for the LibDems' decision not to stand in Brighton Pav? It would be a fair exchange, at zero cost to both parties.
Either way, I think the 1.9 on Vince (BFs), or the 1.8 from Sky, is a respectable bet.
It would certainly provide a big boost to Cable.
I don't think there's been any deal, but I do think local Green Party groups ought to think seriously about which prominent LDs publicly urged Brighton LDs to do this (Vince is one). They also may want to cultivate a relationship as they try to break onto Councils, which will take at least informal (and possibly formal) arrangements in places like Richmond & Twickenham (large wards, non-trivial but widely spread Green support).
I suspect it's more that robing up etc is time consuming and HMQ has a very busy schedule that week. Supposed to be Garter service that day for instance.
@BBCPhilipSim: Ruth Davidson raises point of order at close of #FMQs, asking if FM was aware Alex Salmond was on TV at same time talking about independence
Interesting. I didn't know that about the 1974 speech. Is there a convention that dictates when The Queen does or doesn't wear the crown for a state opening?
Airlines are not having a good time of it at the moment....
Man thrown off diverted BA flight from London to Jamaica over 'upgrade' revealed as 65-year-old CANCER sufferer who 'was handcuffed, covered in a blanket and treated like a SLAVE'
What puzzles me is if the SNP get c.45% & 50+ seats - SCON get c.25-30% & 5+ seats - does that not make SCON the loser? Thereby strengthening the case for Indyref2.
But what if the Unionist parties SCon, Labour + Lib Dems get 56% of the vote and the Indy parties SNP + Green get 44%, albeit the vast majority of the seats? Who is the winner then?
I don't think the answer is entirely straightforward.
As this is WM election - FPTP seats seem most relevant - otherwise leaves the legiticimay of the last Tory govt in doubt !
It's not inconsistent to say both:
1. almost all individual seats preferred an SNP MP to represent their interests in Westminster, not just on constitutional matters but on schools, hospitals, defence etc; and
2. most people voted for a unionist rather than nationalist party, and that has a bearing on whether and when there ought to be another referendum.
The Tories are the only truly Unionist party and SNP the only Nationalist. SLAB & SLID will quickly embrace independence once it appears inevitable .
Interesting. I didn't know that about the 1974 speech. Is there a convention that dictates when The Queen does or doesn't wear the crown for a state opening?
I don't believe there's any convention. I'd assumed she'd stop wearing it at some point due to age, the State Crown is very heavy.
What puzzles me is if the SNP get c.45% & 50+ seats - SCON get c.25-30% & 5+ seats - does that not make SCON the loser? Thereby strengthening the case for Indyref2.
But what if the Unionist parties SCon, Labour + Lib Dems get 56% of the vote and the Indy parties SNP + Green get 44%, albeit the vast majority of the seats? Who is the winner then?
I don't think the answer is entirely straightforward.
As this is WM election - FPTP seats seem most relevant - otherwise leaves the legiticimay of the last Tory govt in doubt !
It's not inconsistent to say both:
1. almost all individual seats preferred an SNP MP to represent their interests in Westminster, not just on constitutional matters but on schools, hospitals, defence etc; and
2. most people voted for a unionist rather than nationalist party, and that has a bearing on whether and when there ought to be another referendum.
The Tories are the only truly Unionist party and SNP the only Nationalist. SLAB & SLID will quickly embrace independence once it appears inevitable .
if those parties still exist once it appears inevitable - i.e. not anytime soon.
The court heard he had searched the internet for IS [so-called Islamic State], past terrorist attacks, and possible locations - including an Elton John concert on 11 September last year. He was arrested on 8 September. When police asked for the password to unlock his phone, he replied: "Yeah I.S.I.S - you like that?"
Interesting. I didn't know that about the 1974 speech. Is there a convention that dictates when The Queen does or doesn't wear the crown for a state opening?
I don't believe there's any convention. I'd assumed she'd stop wearing it at some point due to age, the State Crown is very heavy.
I must say, the Labour staff's wheeze of sending Corbyn to totally irrelelevant seats and directing him only to the doorsteps of super-loyal Labour voters where he can't do any harm is very smart.
Mrs Duffy was a super loyal Labour voter....6 weeks still to go.
That Mrs Duffy anecdote actually backs up why the result is already a foregone conclusion.
It appeared a seismic event, but turned out to have an amazingly small effect. If even Brown calling one of his own core coters a bigot barely shifted votes away from Labour in Rochdale then nothing barring extraordinary black swans is going to change the fact that the tories will win a large majority.
This is why, I guess, the Tories are doing almost nothing bar repeat the same stock phrases. fantastically dull and uninspiring, but safe.
Golly how thick is that? the purpose of the election is to secure a big enough majority for May to have flexibility re Brexit and stop the idiot LDs et al from trying to mess up the negotiations.
How a party with 8 MPs can mess up the Brexit negotiations is not immediately apparent.
Several dozen Tory headbangers otoh..
Christ, the knuckle-dragging, headbanging 'Brexit-means-Brexit' crowd are really determined to drink their own Kool-Aid here aren't they?
Because the Brexit negotiations are political not economic, the only leverage we have is the potential that - treated fairly - goodwill may persist, and the UK may rejoin the EU in the next 10-15 years. Sort of like a sabbatical whilst we take some time off and get over the last of our colonial baggage.
However, if the rest of Europe feels that a hardline government is now in power with a massive majority which is determined to close off ties with Europe and try to turn the clock back, then there is no choice but to play hardball, and make the break as quick and clean as possible, with all that entails for our trade, migrant community and standing in the world.
Personally, I'd go with a pluralistic parliament with vibrant debate and differences of opinion over some sort of 'we're all united behind Teresa' ahead of negotiations, but that doesn't look very likely...
If you seriously think that within a decade or so of leaving the UK is going to rejoin ... or that the EU hopes this is a hokey cokey Brexit and is waiting for us to rejoin ... then you're the one overdosing on Kool-Aid.
Precisely. The EU-phile side lost - narrowly, yes - despite having the status quo advantage. It sure as hell won't win without it.
Eurosceptics have had 20 years of fighting against people who for the most part tried to avoid the argument rather than win the argument. They are not used to being seriously challenged, and the most serious challenge of all is of course the fact that they now need to deliver.
Mrs May is not a eurosceptic, and who knows what her cabinet will look like?
But that 20 years of non-engagement was a clever wheeze, Leave certainly fell into a trap last June. The inertia of Remainers is astonishing. Engage with Eurosceptics? Naah. Campaign before EUref? Naah. Try to build bridges after EUref? Naah. Back into Europe Party at G.E. 2017? Naah. The can't-be-arsedy party.
I don't often agree with Mr Meeks, but he's correct about Turkey. A cursory inspection of Turkey's woeful progress in meeting the accession criteria would have shown that they had no chance of joining, vetoes notwithstanding. Turkish accession has always been a polite diplomatic fiction, useful for both parties.
Where I think he errs is in assuming that all Leave voters took their cues from the dreadful EUref campaign (both sides were terrible, it's arguable who were the greater sinners). I'd been an 'on balance, out' since 2008 or so. I've since repented of that view as regulars will know. However, I'm not wearing a hair-shirt and indulging in self-flagellation. Sorry.
According to Mr Meeks, your shame is indelible. I take that as meaning Luke 15:10 doesn't apply to people to voted Leave.
Mr Meeks is apparently in the middle of an ongoing emotional breakdown
How a party with 8 MPs can mess up the Brexit negotiations is not immediately apparent.
Several dozen Tory headbangers otoh..
Christ, the knuckle-dragging, headbanging 'Brexit-means-Brexit' crowd are really determined to drink their own Kool-Aid here aren't they?
Because the Brexit negotiations are political not economic, the only leverage we have is the potential that - treated fairly - goodwill may persist, and the UK may rejoin the EU in the next 10-15 years. Sort of like a sabbatical whilst we take some time off and get over the last of our colonial baggage.
However, if the rest of Europe feels that a hardline government is now in power with a massive majority which is determined to close off ties with Europe and try to turn the clock back, then there is no choice but to play hardball, and make the break as quick and clean as possible, with all that entails for our trade, migrant community and standing in the world.
Personally, I'd go with a pluralistic parliament with vibrant debate and differences of opinion over some sort of 'we're all united behind Teresa' ahead of negotiations, but that doesn't look very likely...
If you seriously think that within a decade or so of leaving the UK is going to rejoin ... or that the EU hopes this is a hokey cokey Brexit and is waiting for us to rejoin ... then you're the one overdosing on Kool-Aid.
Precisely. The EU-phile side lost - narrowly, yes - despite having the status quo advantage. It sure as hell won't win without it.
Eurosceptics have had 20 years of fighting against people who for the most part tried to avoid the argument rather than win the argument. They are not used to being seriously challenged, and the most serious challenge of all is of course the fact that they now need to deliver.
Mrs May is not a eurosceptic, and who knows what her cabinet will look like?
But that 20 years of non-engagement was a clever wheeze, Leave certainly fell into a trap last June. The inertia of Remainers is astonishing. Engage with Eurosceptics? Naah. Campaign before EUref? Naah. Try to build bridges after EUref? Naah. Back into Europe Party at G.E. 2017? Naah. The can't-be-arsedy party.
You can't build inertia to get back in before you've actually left. I think you are misunderstanding the impact on Brexit on the remains of the EU. I think the EU is in for a period of profound change, possible one of more countries exiting - and it's this that we will be seeking to rejoin in a generation.
Not a hokey-cokey Brexit, but 'Brejoining a new EU'...
Make said: "My view is that views of BREXIT is more important in constituencies that voted remain than those that went for leave. "
I know that PB is a self-selected subsample but the Leavers on here are at least as passionate as the die-hard Remainers and maybe even more so. Maybe BREXIT will count for more than you expect in LEAVE areas.
I will be amazed if the Tories do not improve their majority but a huge landslide will not be good for politics or the UK.
On topic - would Yougov have done this tracker if Remain had won?
I doubt it. But it isn't a mirror image situation. A remain vote would have taken the issue off the agenda. As it is, for as long as the EU exists rejoining it will be discussed, argued for and will colour a huge range of other issues. This will run and run.
Right down it seems labour and lib dem just don't have an intelligent strategy. They are running around like head-less sheep. But there is an obvious solution (shown by this poll):
If both parties can QUICKLY agree an alliance and fight this campaign on the "Brexit" issue, they can win. This is still the key issue in everyone's mind. A clear majority of the population are now against any form of Brexit, especially a "hard one". But the lib dems can not win alone focusing on this issue, because labour will always retain a "core" support of 20% or so. So as things stand, the "remain" vote just gets shared between labour and lib dem, and they both get slaughtered. That is really not smart.
So, Jeremy Corbin and Tim Farron, please wisen up quickly! Swallow your pride, sit down and agree a partnership. You can still turn this thing around, but you have to act intelligently and quickly!
On topic - would Yougov have done this tracker if Remain had won?
I doubt it. But it isn't a mirror image situation. A remain vote would have taken the issue off the agenda. As it is, for as long as the EU exists rejoining it will be discussed, argued for and will colour a huge range of other issues. This will run and run.
That is probably the most depressing thing I have ever read on here.
Comments
1. almost all individual seats preferred an SNP MP to represent their interests in Westminster, not just on constitutional matters but on schools, hospitals, defence etc; and
2. most people voted for a unionist rather than nationalist party, and that has a bearing on whether and when there ought to be another referendum.
Queen to slum it at the State Opening...
‘I will not allow house prices to get out of control and put at risk the sustainability of the recovery.’
Strictly speaking he could argue that by handing monetary policy and bank supervision to other entities he merely allowed other people to let it get out of control.
I don't think there's been any deal, but I do think local Green Party groups ought to think seriously about which prominent LDs publicly urged Brighton LDs to do this (Vince is one). They also may want to cultivate a relationship as they try to break onto Councils, which will take at least informal (and possibly formal) arrangements in places like Richmond & Twickenham (large wards, non-trivial but widely spread Green support).
Isn't that a euphemism for sinning?
Man thrown off diverted BA flight from London to Jamaica over 'upgrade' revealed as 65-year-old CANCER sufferer who 'was handcuffed, covered in a blanket and treated like a SLAVE'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4450576/British-Airways-kick-couple-demand-upgrade.html
Teen admits planning 'London bomb attack'
The court heard he had searched the internet for IS [so-called Islamic State], past terrorist attacks, and possible locations - including an Elton John concert on 11 September last year.
He was arrested on 8 September. When police asked for the password to unlock his phone, he replied: "Yeah I.S.I.S - you like that?"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39731946
It appeared a seismic event, but turned out to have an amazingly small effect. If even Brown calling one of his own core coters a bigot barely shifted votes away from Labour in Rochdale then nothing barring extraordinary black swans is going to change the fact that the tories will win a large majority.
This is why, I guess, the Tories are doing almost nothing bar repeat the same stock phrases. fantastically dull and uninspiring, but safe.
NEW THREAD
But that 20 years of non-engagement was a clever wheeze, Leave certainly fell into a trap last June. The inertia of Remainers is astonishing. Engage with Eurosceptics? Naah. Campaign before EUref? Naah. Try to build bridges after EUref? Naah. Back into Europe Party at G.E. 2017? Naah. The can't-be-arsedy party.
Sad really.
Not a hokey-cokey Brexit, but 'Brejoining a new EU'...
I know that PB is a self-selected subsample but the Leavers on here are at least as passionate as the die-hard Remainers and maybe even more so. Maybe BREXIT will count for more than you expect in LEAVE areas.
I will be amazed if the Tories do not improve their majority but a huge landslide will not be good for politics or the UK.
If both parties can QUICKLY agree an alliance and fight this campaign on the "Brexit" issue, they can win. This is still the key issue in everyone's mind. A clear majority of the population are now against any form of Brexit, especially a "hard one". But the lib dems can not win alone focusing on this issue, because labour will always retain a "core" support of 20% or so. So as things stand, the "remain" vote just gets shared between labour and lib dem, and they both get slaughtered. That is really not smart.
So, Jeremy Corbin and Tim Farron, please wisen up quickly! Swallow your pride, sit down and agree a partnership. You can still turn this thing around, but you have to act intelligently and quickly!