politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We have cross-over in YouGov’s BREXIT tracker: More now think

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We have cross-over in YouGov’s BREXIT tracker: More now think it was wrong than right

The latest YouGov BREXIT tracker was published in the Times over-night and shows a move to people now saying that the referendum decision was wrong rather than right.

Read the full story here

Ishmael_Z

As noted on PT the chart in the threader shows different changes than those claimed by the Times tweet. Both purport to be comparing Yougovs for 21 and 26 April - are there parallel sets of polling going on?

https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/857350135440977922

Pulpstar

https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/857475732121022464

[Deleted User]

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/857475732121022464

That truth doesn't gel with the LibDem's Brexit =Armageddon narrative.

MarqueeMark

Yawn.

swing_voter

Zac's new bid for Richmond will be interesting, not sure what his pitch will be. his chameleon approach to politics is similar to Boris Johnson. for me the big question is what will REMAIN voters in Tory seats do - not sure that the Conservatives have their message quite right, the party needs to avoid the "nasty" tag and kicking JC and opponents has to be done carefully

HYUFD

Given Remain actually had a 4% lead with yougov the night before it lost the EU referendum you could argue if anything it has gone backwards

tlg86

I see the Lib Dems are not standing in Brighton Pavilion. I think that is a mistake.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/857470140782436352

[Deleted User]

Before the referendum we were told that the UK had about 1/3 strongly anti-EU, about 1/3 quite positive and about a 1/3 essentially Eurosceptic but not strongly so and fearful of disruption. I think Dave coralled the full forces of the state to get nearly half of that wobbly 1/3 to vote Remain. A creditable result actually. Imagine if he'd been pushing in the right direction though - it'd have been over 60% Leave.
After this GE the remain block is going to be somewhat disemepowered. There'll simply be less noise in the HoP (both houses). The power of the state will be coralled into getting on with it. The press will have a decisive GE result to deploy. I suspect this chart may move in a Leave direction later this year. It hasn't moved a jot thus far.

rottenborough

tlg86 said:

I see the Lib Dems are not standing in Brighton Pavilion. I think that is a mistake.

One of the key points of the whole Progressive Alliance business was to avoid that I am guessing. Working out very well.

Casino_Royale

OGH is clearly a little obsessed with this chart, and desperate for it to show a decisive shift to Remain, but this is just statistical noise.

FWIW, i think the ultimate Remain fantasy of such a move may well come true. But it won't come true until we hit the next economic downturn, or when negotiations reach the very difficult phase where compromises need to be made.

And then, a little while later as the new relationship beds in, it will recover again.

HYUFD

The Tories of course won Copeland for the first time in decades in large part because it was a Leave seat and given there are around 400 Leave seats and only 200 Remain seats even if Labour the LDs and SNP gained every Tory Remain seat and won 50 more the Tories would still be ahead because of gains in Labour Leave seats

SquareRoot

swing_voter said:

Zac's new bid for Richmond will be interesting, not sure what his pitch will be. his chameleon approach to politics is similar to Boris Johnson. for me the big question is what will REMAIN voters in Tory seats do - not sure that the Conservatives have their message quite right, the party needs to avoid the "nasty" tag and kicking JC and opponents has to be done carefully

He has learned a lesson if nothing else.

williamglenn

Patrick said:

That truth doesn't gel with the LibDem's Brexit =Armageddon narrative.

Does it support the 'country coming together' narrative?

rottenborough

What is Zac going to do when the Government continues with plans for Heathrow?

peter_from_putney

Casino_Royale said:

OGH is clearly a little obsessed with this chart, and desperate for it to show a decisive shift to Remain, but this is just statistical noise.

FWIW, i think the ultimate Remain fantasy of such a move may well come true. But it won't come true until we hit the next economic downturn, or when negotiations reach the very difficult phase where compromises need to be made.

And then, a little while later as the new relationship beds in, it will recover again.

Can't argue with any of that - is this the third time we've seen this bar chart over the recent past? See now, what's the old saying? Say something often enough and you'll start to believe it.

SquareRoot

rottenborough said:

What is Zac going to do when the Government continues with plans for Heathrow?

Hold on a sec he hasnt even been elected yet. It's not a given.

dyedwoolie

rottenborough said:

What is Zac going to do when the Government continues with plans for Heathrow?

He'll be part of a much larger majority and his opposition will be moot. He'll abstain any vote and take the appropriate whipping punishment. If he wins

surbiton

rottenborough said:

What is Zac going to do when the Government continues with plans for Heathrow?

Resign and then stand in the by-election. He would look stupid if he didn't. Why was it important to resign last time and not this time ?

But he has to win first.

[Deleted User]

williamglenn said:

Patrick said:

That truth doesn't gel with the LibDem's Brexit =Armageddon narrative.

Does it support the 'country coming together' narrative?

No doubt someone will update me, but I think I saw a poll on Brexit showing 68% think we should just get on with it now. We have no change in opinion about whether the majority were right or not to choose Brexit, but a massive majority recognising that this was our national choice and now we must deliver it as best we can. That's a kind of coming together I suppose!

williamglenn

Patrick said:

Before the referendum we were told that the UK had about 1/3 strongly anti-EU, about 1/3 quite positive and about a 1/3 essentially Eurosceptic but not strongly so and fearful of disruption. I think Dave coralled the full forces of the state to get nearly half of that wobbly 1/3 to vote Remain. A creditable result actually. Imagine if he'd been pushing in the right direction though - it'd have been over 60% Leave.
After this GE the remain block is going to be somewhat disemepowered. There'll simply be less noise in the HoP (both houses). The power of the state will be coralled into getting on with it. The press will have a decisive GE result to deploy. I suspect this chart may move in a Leave direction later this year. It hasn't moved a jot thus far.

It's the 1/3 of hardcore Eurosceptics I'd like to see detailed polling for. How the strand of opinion that expected the EU to crumble and break up responds to the reality that the EU is strong and will be a permanent feature of European politics for the rest of our lives, that we will be more aware of on a day to day basis on the outside than on the inside, will be instructive.

DecrepitJohnL

Since the election was called on the fiction of needing a mandate for HMG's brand of Brexit, is there the slightest chance of the Prime Minister telling us what this is?

peter_from_putney

rottenborough said:

What is Zac going to do when the Government continues with plans for Heathrow?

Simples ...... just keep his head down and become a conscientious objector and a time wasting backbencher.

AlastairMeeks

The chart shows no real movement either way. This is itself interesting because usually policy becomes more popular once it has been adopted.

That Brexit hasn't become more popular is in all likelihood a continuing memory of Remainers of the xenophobic lies that Leave campaigned on.

OldKingCole

surbiton said:

rottenborough said:

What is Zac going to do when the Government continues with plans for Heathrow?

Resign and then stand in the by-election. He would look stupid if he didn't. Why was it important to resign last time and not this time ?

But he has to win first.

He looks stupid already!

surbiton

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/857470140782436352

The question is how often regretting Brexit is coming up. If the incidence is more frequent lately then no matter what explanation is given, a narrative will develop.

dyedwoolie

Patrick said:

williamglenn said:

Patrick said:

That truth doesn't gel with the LibDem's Brexit =Armageddon narrative.

Does it support the 'country coming together' narrative?

No doubt someone will update me, but I think I saw a poll on Brexit showing 68% think we should just get on with it now. We have no change in opinion about whether the majority were right or not to choose Brexit, but a massive majority recognising that this was our national choice and now we must deliver it as best we can. That's a kind of coming together I suppose!

I concur. Anecdotally I have many friends who were passionate remainers but none of them are now talking about undoing what's done. Quite a few planning to use their vote to register their disappointment though.

williamglenn

Patrick said:

williamglenn said:

Patrick said:

That truth doesn't gel with the LibDem's Brexit =Armageddon narrative.

Does it support the 'country coming together' narrative?

No doubt someone will update me, but I think I saw a poll on Brexit showing 68% think we should just get on with it now. We have no change in opinion about whether the majority were right or not to choose Brexit, but a massive majority recognising that this was our national choice and now we must deliver it as best we can. That's a kind of coming together I suppose!

Thinking we should get on with the process is not the same as thinking we should go ahead with Brexit at any cost. 'Now is not the time', to coin a phrase, to revisit the result, but that time *will* come.

GeoffM

rottenborough said:

What is Zac going to do when the Government continues with plans for Heathrow?

Zac will probably be less involved than Sarah Olney's husband, who is actually building the airport.

Mind you, after the election they'll need the family income.

AlastairMeeks

williamglenn said:

Patrick said:

Before the referendum we were told that the UK had about 1/3 strongly anti-EU, about 1/3 quite positive and about a 1/3 essentially Eurosceptic but not strongly so and fearful of disruption. I think Dave coralled the full forces of the state to get nearly half of that wobbly 1/3 to vote Remain. A creditable result actually. Imagine if he'd been pushing in the right direction though - it'd have been over 60% Leave.
After this GE the remain block is going to be somewhat disemepowered. There'll simply be less noise in the HoP (both houses). The power of the state will be coralled into getting on with it. The press will have a decisive GE result to deploy. I suspect this chart may move in a Leave direction later this year. It hasn't moved a jot thus far.

It's the 1/3 of hardcore Eurosceptics I'd like to see detailed polling for. How the strand of opinion that expected the EU to crumble and break up responds to the reality that the EU is strong and will be a permanent feature of European politics for the rest of our lives, that we will be more aware of on a day to day basis on the outside than on the inside, will be instructive.

Their hatred of the EU overcomes everything. The same posters who a year ago were furiously denying that Leave would mean leaving the single market are now furiously condemning as traitors anyone who suggests that result might not be a good thing.

CarlottaVance

YouGov up.

Nothing jumps out of the supplementaries to suggest a fundamental shift in position so it may just be random variation. One thing I did notice is they had to upweight the London sample significantly - but who knows.

This question was interesting:

How much, if anything, do you know about Jeremy Corbyn's past views and opinions on Northern Ireland and the Troubles?
A lot/Fair Amount: 18
Not a lot/at all: 71

That may change........

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/gi73a1vx9y/TimesResults_170426_VI_Trackers_W.pdf

Bromptonaut

29/3/17 was Peak Leave. Suck it up, frothers.

dyedwoolie

CarlottaVance said:

YouGov up.

Nothing jumps out of the supplementaries to suggest a fundamental shift in position so it may just be random variation. One thing I did notice is they had to upweight the London sample significantly - but who knows.

This question was interesting:

How much, if anything, do you know about Jeremy Corbyn's past views and opinions on Northern Ireland and the Troubles?
A lot/Fair Amount: 18
Not a lot/at all: 71

That may change........

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/gi73a1vx9y/TimesResults_170426_VI_Trackers_W.pdf

He's probably quite relieved Labour don't stand in NI. I doubt he'd enjoy his reception in Upper bann

Slackbladder

rottenborough said:

tlg86 said:

I see the Lib Dems are not standing in Brighton Pavilion. I think that is a mistake.

One of the key points of the whole Progressive Alliance business was to avoid that I am guessing. Working out very well.

If the left really care about it then there shoud be a clear element of a move to PR in both the labour and lib dem manifesto's. We'll see.

tlg86

On topic - would Yougov have done this tracker if Remain had won?

surbiton

Patrick said:

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/857475732121022464

That truth doesn't gel with the LibDem's Brexit =Armageddon narrative.

Even my eyesight tells me that the Leave line has been above the Remain line always except in December [ was that immediately after Richmond ? ]. Let's keep an eye on this line and the Retail Prices Index. There could be an inverse correlation.

[Deleted User]

williamglenn said:

Patrick said:

Before the referendum we were told that the UK had about 1/3 strongly anti-EU, about 1/3 quite positive and about a 1/3 essentially Eurosceptic but not strongly so and fearful of disruption. I think Dave coralled the full forces of the state to get nearly half of that wobbly 1/3 to vote Remain. A creditable result actually. Imagine if he'd been pushing in the right direction though - it'd have been over 60% Leave.
After this GE the remain block is going to be somewhat disemepowered. There'll simply be less noise in the HoP (both houses). The power of the state will be coralled into getting on with it. The press will have a decisive GE result to deploy. I suspect this chart may move in a Leave direction later this year. It hasn't moved a jot thus far.

It's the 1/3 of hardcore Eurosceptics I'd like to see detailed polling for. How the strand of opinion that expected the EU to crumble and break up responds to the reality that the EU is strong and will be a permanent feature of European politics for the rest of our lives, that we will be more aware of on a day to day basis on the outside than on the inside, will be instructive.

Yes - that would be interesting. The sovereignty / democracy bit vs the immigration bit. I suspect as the years go by we'll be quite happy looking in from the outside as the EU sticks together whilst forever failing to resolve its internal contradictions. Greece or Italy will be the ones to watch - and how Germany reacts to their slow-mo impending insolvency. My own view is that when the crunch point is arrived at we'll see a dramatic move towards superstatehood rather than a split. At which point we will be delightedly on the outside.

GeoffM

dyedwoolie said:

Patrick said:

williamglenn said:

Patrick said:

That truth doesn't gel with the LibDem's Brexit =Armageddon narrative.

Does it support the 'country coming together' narrative?

No doubt someone will update me, but I think I saw a poll on Brexit showing 68% think we should just get on with it now. We have no change in opinion about whether the majority were right or not to choose Brexit, but a massive majority recognising that this was our national choice and now we must deliver it as best we can. That's a kind of coming together I suppose!

I concur. Anecdotally I have many friends who were passionate remainers but none of them are now talking about undoing what's done. Quite a few planning to use their vote to register their disappointment though.

Is there actually going to be a voting box for that?

I Am Disappointed With Stuff ⬜

kle4

tlg86 said:

I see the Lib Dems are not standing in Brighton Pavilion. I think that is a mistake.

Anti-Toryism is the most important thing of all, every allying the those far from the centre of politics. Apparently.

logical_song

HYUFD said:

The Tories of course won Copeland for the first time in decades in large part because it was a Leave seat and given there are around 400 Leave seats and only 200 Remain seats even if Labour the LDs and SNP gained every Tory Remain seat and won 50 more the Tories would still be ahead because of gains in Labour Leave seats

The Tories won Copeland because Corbyn is Labour leader.

another_richard

Patrick said:

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/857475732121022464

That truth doesn't gel with the LibDem's Brexit =Armageddon narrative.

Ten months ago today and we were told that economic Armageddon was already happening:

' If you like what Brexit is doing to the pound and the stock market, wait until it gets going on house prices. That's when Boris gets strung up from a lamp-post. '

' Project Fear reality

@lindayueh: IOD survey of 1,092 UK firms: quarter plan a recruitment freeze, 5% plan redundancies, 20% may move abroad #Brexit https://t.co/2lA6fK6gW9 '

' Observation at work as trading in RBS and Barclays shares are suspended

In hindsight Dave and George didn't go hard enough on the economic consequences of a Leave vote. '

' Project fear reality

@KathViner: Pound and shares hit again by Brexit crisis as gilt yields tumble – business live https://t.co/kil7bH0tcg '

' I had some interesting conversations with friends in the City over the weekend. The mood could scarecly be blacker. One friend who has recently retired from a senior position with a Japanese bank, and who is definitely not someone prone to exaggeration, said he thought it was the end of London as the leading financial centre in the timezone. '

' Credit Suisse: UK lead indicators are already consistent with a recession and will likely now worsen

There's a phrase I'm searching for here... '

' In another situation, falling house prices are possibly just about OK - it's the falling bank and builders share price that should give the game away. '

' Hollick telling Radio 4 the underlying economy will most likely tip into recession. '

... and on and on and on ...

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/27/cameron-is-going-boris-is-in-hiding-and-labour-faces-civil-war-so-who-will-lead-britain/#vanilla-comments

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/27/corbyns-hanging-on-but-for-how-long/

surbiton

Ishmael_Z said:

As noted on PT the chart in the threader shows different changes than those claimed by the Times tweet. Both purport to be comparing Yougovs for 21 and 26 April - are there parallel sets of polling going on?

https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/857350135440977922

I believe it just compares to the previous Yougov poll. I think the question is asked each time.

Scott_P

And here we have the reason Boris might not be a prominent figure in the upcoming campaign

Having carefully crafted a dead cat Mugwump and thrown it on the table, being ivited to tour the studios to point at the dead cat Mugwump, talk about the dead cat Mugwump, invite the public to gaze in awe at the dead cat Mugwump, he carelessly drops some hard news

@BBCNormanS: "It wd be very difficult for us to say no" ( if US asked Uk to join in military action against Syria) - @BorisJohnson @BBCr4today

And without asking Parliament

ffs

THE DAY THE POLLS TURNED

kle4

Bromptonaut said:

29/3/17 was Peak Leave. Suck it up, frothers.

We're leaving regardless, it doesn't matter if slightly more people think it is mistake or not unless the figures are more like 75-25, otherwise it has no impact on the politicians. What will be the consequences from this 'crossover'? The government and main opposition both support brexit, at most it impacts things attempted for in the negotiations?

Scott_P

Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/857503391035031552

[Deleted User]

ffs said:

THE DAY THE POLLS TURNED

Welcome ffs.

Andy_Cooke

FPT and originally on the YouGov poll and how meaningful the changes are or are not:
We're in danger of reading an artificial precision into an inherently fuzzy process. The specific numbers are just the midpoint of a smeared distribution of probability for any poll.

This poll says Tories mid-forties, Labour high-twenties, Lib Dems low double figures, UKIP mid-single-figures and most polls are pretty close to that.

Sometimes we get Tories high-forties and Labour mid-twenties and that's pretty much the only variation.

Sometimes I think we should release a polling scale that isn't percentile but something like:
Low single figues (0-3): Level 1
Mid single figures (3-7): Level 2
High single figures (7-10): Level 3
Low double figures (10-13): Level 4
Mid double figures (13-17): Level 5
High double figures (17-20): Level 6
Low twenties (20-23): Level 7
Mid twenties (23-27): Level 8
High twenties (27-30): Level 9
Low thirties (30-33): Level 10
Mid thirties (33-37): Level 11
High thirties (37-40): Level 12
Low forties (40-43): Level 13
Mid forties (43-47): Level 14
High forties (47-50): Level 15
Low fifties (50-53): Level 16
Mid fifties (53-57): Level 17
High fifties (57-60): Level 18

If we need more over that top, we can add on simply enough.

So this poll is Tories Level 14, Labour Level 9, LDs Level 4, UKIP Level 2
All polls have had Tories Level 14 or 15, Labour Level 8 or 9, LDs Level 4, UKIP Level 2, with very brief exceptions on those latter ones.

Adding to that, this poll has Right: Level 14, Wrong: Level 14 where they've been pretty much consistently.

CarlottaVance

London: (vs 18-21 Apr)
Con: 36 (-6)
Lab: 33 (+3)

UKIP 2015
46 (-21)

Probably just noise......

SandyRentool

Good morning all.

Aren't crossovers a sight to behold?

I am delighted to see that Esther McVey will soon be making a return to parliament, and in a seat for life this time. She will be a vast improvement on her predecessor.

dyedwoolie

GeoffM said:

dyedwoolie said:

Patrick said:

williamglenn said:

Patrick said:

That truth doesn't gel with the LibDem's Brexit =Armageddon narrative.

Does it support the 'country coming together' narrative?

No doubt someone will update me, but I think I saw a poll on Brexit showing 68% think we should just get on with it now. We have no change in opinion about whether the majority were right or not to choose Brexit, but a massive majority recognising that this was our national choice and now we must deliver it as best we can. That's a kind of coming together I suppose!

I concur. Anecdotally I have many friends who were passionate remainers but none of them are now talking about undoing what's done. Quite a few planning to use their vote to register their disappointment though.

Is there actually going to be a voting box for that?

I Am Disappointed With Stuff ⬜

Fair comment. To elucidate the few I'm talking about will be voting Farron as the only leader they saw as standing against the tide. In the knowledge it won't change anything but for whatever reason feels good to them.

williamglenn

Scott_P said:

Meanwhile...

She's right, and the next 18 months will disillusion even the most ideologically committed Brexiteers. Britain's options in the world are not what they thought they were.

kle4

williamglenn said:

Patrick said:

That truth doesn't gel with the LibDem's Brexit =Armageddon narrative.

Does it support the 'country coming together' narrative?

Both sides pushing wildly inflated line of attach, wow, we really are back in the referendum.

The hard Brexit being pursued and clear intention of the EU to punish, rather than as the noble organisation we are told it is treat with us tough but fairly, does concern me, I'm a prime candidate fore Bregret, but the hard core on the remain side, like the hard core of the leave side, are such a bunch of idiotic whingers it still needs more time to assess.

freetochoose

AlastairMeeks said:

The chart shows no real movement either way. This is itself interesting because usually policy becomes more popular once it has been adopted.

That Brexit hasn't become more popular is in all likelihood a continuing memory of Remainers of the xenophobic lies that Leave campaigned on.

I'm finding it funny now, it used to be tiresome

midwinter

logical_song said:

HYUFD said:

The Tories of course won Copeland for the first time in decades in large part because it was a Leave seat and given there are around 400 Leave seats and only 200 Remain seats even if Labour the LDs and SNP gained every Tory Remain seat and won 50 more the Tories would still be ahead because of gains in Labour Leave seats

The Tories won Copeland because Corbyn is Labour leader.

It's a perfect storm. UKIP voters returning to the Tories/not returning to Labour, Corbyn being Corbyn and May enjoying a similar surge of popularity to Major in 1992.

surbiton

SquareRoot said:

rottenborough said:

What is Zac going to do when the Government continues with plans for Heathrow?

Hold on a sec he hasnt even been elected yet. It's not a given.

I hope the local Labour party has the sense in not putting up a candidate. But then again, the name of the leader is Corbyn.

Barnesian

HYUFD said:

The Tories of course won Copeland for the first time in decades in large part because it was a Leave seat and given there are around 400 Leave seats and only 200 Remain seats even if Labour the LDs and SNP gained every Tory Remain seat and won 50 more the Tories would still be ahead because of gains in Labour Leave seats

About 60 seats are in the range 49-51% leave/remain i.e. too close to make any difference at all whether you label them leave or remain.

There are 160 seats that are decisively 60%+ leave and 100 seats that are decisively 60%+ remain. The other 376 seats are in the range 40-60%.

kle4

CarlottaVance said:

London: (vs 18-21 Apr)
Con: 36 (-6)
Lab: 33 (+3)

UKIP 2015
46 (-21)

Probably just noise......

Probably. But Lab do appear to be having a bit of a bump, or at least stable in their own level. GivenI don't think they got off to a good start in the campaign, I can only think its a reaction from people frightened of a tory majority who were otherwise inclined to back them, or stay at home, and if it keeps up...well the Tories wlil still win, but legendarily good win will escape them.

IanB2

Slackbladder said:

rottenborough said:

tlg86 said:

I see the Lib Dems are not standing in Brighton Pavilion. I think that is a mistake.

One of the key points of the whole Progressive Alliance business was to avoid that I am guessing. Working out very well.

If the left really care about it then there shoud be a clear element of a move to PR in both the labour and lib dem manifesto's. We'll see.

I think the LibDem manifesto can be relied upon to commit to it.

dyedwoolie

I feel the need to declare my interest by way of my own VI. I'm trying in my posting to be impartial and realistic and react to the data as it is and anecdotal evidence gathered.
GE night I'm looking for 2 seats and 3 second places if that helps

midwinter

dyedwoolie said:

I feel the need to declare my interest by way of my own VI. I'm trying in my posting to be impartial and realistic and react to the data as it is and anecdotal evidence gathered.
GE night I'm looking for 2 seats and 3 second places if that helps

Ahhh....Labour

kle4

Scott_P said:

Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/857503391035031552

What's your point? Are the EU leaders incapable of miscalculating things as well? They are pretending they w ill give up nothing - even with a very strong hand that will not be the case, yet it is presented as unaltered fact that every utterance from europe is entirely true and logical and every utterance of ours is a misguided lie. Does that seem probable?

Big_G_NorthWales

surbiton said:

rottenborough said:

What is Zac going to do when the Government continues with plans for Heathrow?

Resign and then stand in the by-election. He would look stupid if he didn't. Why was it important to resign last time and not this time ?

But he has to win first.

If he wins, and it is a big if, he will not resign over Heathrow as he will stand against it as many other London conservatives but the important difference this time is that he will not have become a hostage to fortune by saying he would resign over Heathrow

dyedwoolie

midwinter said:

dyedwoolie said:

I feel the need to declare my interest by way of my own VI. I'm trying in my posting to be impartial and realistic and react to the data as it is and anecdotal evidence gathered.
GE night I'm looking for 2 seats and 3 second places if that helps

Ahhh....Labour

LOL. Basinga

swing_voter

Scott_P said:

And here we have the reason Boris might not be a prominent figure in the upcoming campaign

Having carefully crafted a dead cat Mugwump and thrown it on the table, being ivited to tour the studios to point at the dead cat Mugwump, talk about the dead cat Mugwump, invite the public to gaze in awe at the dead cat Mugwump, he carelessly drops some hard news

@BBCNormanS: "It wd be very difficult for us to say no" ( if US asked Uk to join in military action against Syria) - @BorisJohnson @BBCr4today

And without asking Parliament

interesting that Radio4 ran with the Bomb Syria if US asks story......I am not sure that CCHQ thought that would be the story after Boris's interview. It all smacks of poodling to the US, then again I dont see it leading to more than Westminster chatter during the campaign, perhaps put a bit of pressure on certain Labour front benchers.

david_kendrick1

In US elections, the received wisdom is that you need the 'big mo'.

This doesn't seem to given the same weight in the UK. But could it be different this time? In a seat with an 8000 labour majority, Tory and Labour candidates and activists have always gone through the motions. They were merely doing what they thought was right. Everyone 'knew' the result, whatever was done.

Possibly this time, local Tories will be enthused---they'll actually believe they can win. If a winning 'buzz' could be created, who knows? Few Labour activists, outside London, really want to put in the 'hard yards' for Corbyn.

Maybe on-the-ground activity is unimportant (though the LDs seem suggest otherwise)

If this matters at all, it will only be in one direction?

surbiton

GDP figures coming out 8:30 am tomorrow. Will Brexitland continue to be brilliant [ we will ignore the fact that it was the 17% depreciation of the pound which kick-started manufacturing ].

However, the same pound has resulted in higher import prices, resulting in a squeeze in real income increase.

Let's see what tomorrow brings. The last 3 quarters were: 0.7%, 0.7%, 0.6%

Floater

In news that William, Scott and Mr Meeks will no doubt be sharing

http://www.insuranceinsider.com/brussels-will-push-more-eu-business-to-lloyd-s-nelson

"despite Brexit"

AlastairMeeks

freetochoose said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The chart shows no real movement either way. This is itself interesting because usually policy becomes more popular once it has been adopted.

That Brexit hasn't become more popular is in all likelihood a continuing memory of Remainers of the xenophobic lies that Leave campaigned on.

I'm finding it funny now, it used to be tiresome

Hilarious:

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/02b230449f750df147b3f85fa7ce060bae0b325a/494_0_3002_1801/3002.jpg?w=700&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=e28848bed247434d84ea97d5ae3389d4

Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.

Big_G_NorthWales

Scott_P said:

Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/857503391035031552

Insulting the British will only harden attitudes

surbiton

Floater said:

In news that William, Scott and Mr Meeks will no doubt be sharing

http://www.insuranceinsider.com/brussels-will-push-more-eu-business-to-lloyd-s-nelson

"despite Brexit"

Because Lloyds are opening an office in Brussels ?

SquareRoot

kle4 said:

CarlottaVance said:

London: (vs 18-21 Apr)
Con: 36 (-6)
Lab: 33 (+3)

UKIP 2015
46 (-21)

Probably just noise......

Probably. But Lab do appear to be having a bit of a bump, or at least stable in their own level. GivenI don't think they got off to a good start in the campaign, I can only think its a reaction from people frightened of a tory majority who were otherwise inclined to back them, or stay at home, and if it keeps up...well the Tories wlil still win, but legendarily good win will escape them.

IIRC There is always swingback towards the governing party...

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

ffs said:

THE DAY THE POLLS TURNED

Has anyone called Tipping Point yet?

surbiton

Big_G_NorthWales said:

surbiton said:

rottenborough said:

What is Zac going to do when the Government continues with plans for Heathrow?

Resign and then stand in the by-election. He would look stupid if he didn't. Why was it important to resign last time and not this time ?

But he has to win first.

If he wins, and it is a big if, he will not resign over Heathrow as he will stand against it as many other London conservatives but the important difference this time is that he will not have become a hostage to fortune by saying he would resign over Heathrow

So last time it was an issue about principle. This time, well, it is not that important.

MaxPB

rottenborough said:

What is Zac going to do when the Government continues with plans for Heathrow?

Write an article for the local paper as "ex-MP Zac Goldsmith". He's not going to win.

freetochoose

AlastairMeeks said:

freetochoose said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The chart shows no real movement either way. This is itself interesting because usually policy becomes more popular once it has been adopted.

That Brexit hasn't become more popular is in all likelihood a continuing memory of Remainers of the xenophobic lies that Leave campaigned on.

I'm finding it funny now, it used to be tiresome

Hilarious:

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/02b230449f750df147b3f85fa7ce060bae0b325a/494_0_3002_1801/3002.jpg?w=700&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=e28848bed247434d84ea97d5ae3389d4

Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.

I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.

CarlottaVance

surbiton said:

Floater said:

In news that William, Scott and Mr Meeks will no doubt be sharing

http://www.insuranceinsider.com/brussels-will-push-more-eu-business-to-lloyd-s-nelson

"despite Brexit"

Because Lloyds are opening an office in Brussels ?

Worth pointing out what Lloyd's is, it's the insurance market. That is, it's the market, not the insurers. This new office then allows all of those insurers access to the entire EU marketplace. So in terms of jobs moving it's not really 100 out of 700, it's 100 jobs out of 30,000

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/03/30/seems-sensible-lloyds-of-london-to-open-brussels-office-post-brexit/#77f65e8b5bd6

AlastairMeeks

freetochoose said:

AlastairMeeks said:

freetochoose said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The chart shows no real movement either way. This is itself interesting because usually policy becomes more popular once it has been adopted.

That Brexit hasn't become more popular is in all likelihood a continuing memory of Remainers of the xenophobic lies that Leave campaigned on.

I'm finding it funny now, it used to be tiresome

Hilarious:

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/02b230449f750df147b3f85fa7ce060bae0b325a/494_0_3002_1801/3002.jpg?w=700&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=e28848bed247434d84ea97d5ae3389d4

Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.

I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.

I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.

I find it disgusting.

glw

another_richard said:

Ten months ago today and we were told that economic Armageddon was already happening:

Remainers criticise the £350 million for the NHS figure with some justification, but I can't recall any of them conceding what a load of old bollocks Project Fear has turned out to be. If there was a "big lie" of the referendum campaign it was the wall to wall drivel about the economy from the Remain side, and as you say ten months on we haven't had to resort to cannibalism. Although I dare say some Remainer will now pipe up to say "we haven't left yet".

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

Patrick said:

Before the referendum we were told that the UK had about 1/3 strongly anti-EU, about 1/3 quite positive and about a 1/3 essentially Eurosceptic but not strongly so and fearful of disruption. I think Dave coralled the full forces of the state to get nearly half of that wobbly 1/3 to vote Remain. A creditable result actually. Imagine if he'd been pushing in the right direction though - it'd have been over 60% Leave.
After this GE the remain block is going to be somewhat disemepowered. There'll simply be less noise in the HoP (both houses). The power of the state will be coralled into getting on with it. The press will have a decisive GE result to deploy. I suspect this chart may move in a Leave direction later this year. It hasn't moved a jot thus far.

It's the 1/3 of hardcore Eurosceptics I'd like to see detailed polling for. How the strand of opinion that expected the EU to crumble and break up responds to the reality that the EU is strong and will be a permanent feature of European politics for the rest of our lives, that we will be more aware of on a day to day basis on the outside than on the inside, will be instructive.

Ask that question again next May after 5* win the Italian elections. Switzerland, Norway and Iceland have also survived for decades outside the EU

surbiton

midwinter said:

logical_song said:

HYUFD said:

The Tories of course won Copeland for the first time in decades in large part because it was a Leave seat and given there are around 400 Leave seats and only 200 Remain seats even if Labour the LDs and SNP gained every Tory Remain seat and won 50 more the Tories would still be ahead because of gains in Labour Leave seats

The Tories won Copeland because Corbyn is Labour leader.

It's a perfect storm. UKIP voters returning to the Tories/not returning to Labour, Corbyn being Corbyn and May enjoying a similar surge of popularity to Major in 1992.

Major was a likeable person. May may be feared or even admired. I don't think too many people actually like her that much. Even Tories. At least, one is here in PB.

FF43

Overall there is very little change of opinion since the referendum. Curiously, I know people who have switched from Remain to Leave but no-one who claims to have gone the other way. But they must exist in at least the same numbers as those switching from Remain to Leave. I am guessing they are not feeling too good about their Leave vote in that case.

HYUFD

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

The Tories of course won Copeland for the first time in decades in large part because it was a Leave seat and given there are around 400 Leave seats and only 200 Remain seats even if Labour the LDs and SNP gained every Tory Remain seat and won 50 more the Tories would still be ahead because of gains in Labour Leave seats

About 60 seats are in the range 49-51% leave/remain i.e. too close to make any difference at all whether you label them leave or remain.

There are 160 seats that are decisively 60%+ leave and 100 seats that are decisively 60%+ remain. The other 376 seats are in the range 40-60%.

Even gaining all those 60 seats would not produce a Remain majority they have to win 55%+ Leave seats to do that

surbiton

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Patrick said:

Before the referendum we were told that the UK had about 1/3 strongly anti-EU, about 1/3 quite positive and about a 1/3 essentially Eurosceptic but not strongly so and fearful of disruption. I think Dave coralled the full forces of the state to get nearly half of that wobbly 1/3 to vote Remain. A creditable result actually. Imagine if he'd been pushing in the right direction though - it'd have been over 60% Leave.
After this GE the remain block is going to be somewhat disemepowered. There'll simply be less noise in the HoP (both houses). The power of the state will be coralled into getting on with it. The press will have a decisive GE result to deploy. I suspect this chart may move in a Leave direction later this year. It hasn't moved a jot thus far.

It's the 1/3 of hardcore Eurosceptics I'd like to see detailed polling for. How the strand of opinion that expected the EU to crumble and break up responds to the reality that the EU is strong and will be a permanent feature of European politics for the rest of our lives, that we will be more aware of on a day to day basis on the outside than on the inside, will be instructive.

Ask that question again next May after 5* win the Italian elections. Switzerland, Norway and Iceland have also survived for decades outside the EU

Did Le Pen finally get more votes than Macron in the first round ?

Big_G_NorthWales

surbiton said:

SquareRoot said:

rottenborough said:

What is Zac going to do when the Government continues with plans for Heathrow?

Hold on a sec he hasnt even been elected yet. It's not a given.

I hope the local Labour party has the sense in not putting up a candidate. But then again, the name of the leader is Corbyn.

Didn't his brother stand last time

another_richard

surbiton said:

GDP figures coming out 8:30 am tomorrow. Will Brexitland continue to be brilliant [ we will ignore the fact that it was the 17% depreciation of the pound which kick-started manufacturing ].

However, the same pound has resulted in higher import prices, resulting in a squeeze in real income increase.

Let's see what tomorrow brings. The last 3 quarters were: 0.7%, 0.7%, 0.6%

The previous quarters were:

2016q4 0.7%
2016q3 0.5%
2016q2 0.6%
2016q1 0.2%

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyq/qna

Philip_Thompson

surbiton said:

rottenborough said:

What is Zac going to do when the Government continues with plans for Heathrow?

Resign and then stand in the by-election. He would look stupid if he didn't. Why was it important to resign last time and not this time ?

But he has to win first.

Because last time he had pledged to do so and this time he isn't pledging to do so. Simples.

SimonStClare

Morning all.

Hopefully the Brexit tracker cross-over will be cathartic for some, entertaining to others.
Personally, I still think it’s the wrong question and reveals very little, hence the miniscule movements over the past year.

freetochoose

AlastairMeeks said:

freetochoose said:

AlastairMeeks said:

freetochoose said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The chart shows no real movement either way. This is itself interesting because usually policy becomes more popular once it has been adopted.

That Brexit hasn't become more popular is in all likelihood a continuing memory of Remainers of the xenophobic lies that Leave campaigned on.

I'm finding it funny now, it used to be tiresome

Hilarious:

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/02b230449f750df147b3f85fa7ce060bae0b325a/494_0_3002_1801/3002.jpg?w=700&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=e28848bed247434d84ea97d5ae3389d4

Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.

I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.

I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.

I find it disgusting.

Oh well.

Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?

OllyT

tlg86 said:

On topic - would Yougov have done this tracker if Remain had won?

I think it was always going to be of more interest in what the public feel as we move through the Brexit process. I expect the "wrong" lead to harden once we get into the real nitty-gritty.

AlastairMeeks

freetochoose said:

AlastairMeeks said:

freetochoose said:

AlastairMeeks said:

freetochoose said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The chart shows no real movement either way. This is itself interesting because usually policy becomes more popular once it has been adopted.

That Brexit hasn't become more popular is in all likelihood a continuing memory of Remainers of the xenophobic lies that Leave campaigned on.

I'm finding it funny now, it used to be tiresome

Hilarious:

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/02b230449f750df147b3f85fa7ce060bae0b325a/494_0_3002_1801/3002.jpg?w=700&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=e28848bed247434d84ea97d5ae3389d4

Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.

I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.

I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.

I find it disgusting.

Oh well.

Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?

From that non sequitur I take it that you accept that you are intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain. Thanks for confirming.

surbiton

CarlottaVance said:

surbiton said:

Floater said:

In news that William, Scott and Mr Meeks will no doubt be sharing

http://www.insuranceinsider.com/brussels-will-push-more-eu-business-to-lloyd-s-nelson

"despite Brexit"

Because Lloyds are opening an office in Brussels ?

Worth pointing out what Lloyd's is, it's the insurance market. That is, it's the market, not the insurers. This new office then allows all of those insurers access to the entire EU marketplace. So in terms of jobs moving it's not really 100 out of 700, it's 100 jobs out of 30,000

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/03/30/seems-sensible-lloyds-of-london-to-open-brussels-office-post-brexit/#77f65e8b5bd6

I am not sure what you are trying to say. I did not mention "jobs". But it is important that they felt the necessity to be "there". In the days of the internet and modern communication, you can have your staff anywhere. But they still want to have a presence in the EU.

williamglenn

FF43 said:

Overall there is very little change of opinion since the referendum. Curiously, I know people who have switched from Remain to Leave but no-one who claims to have gone the other way. But they must exist in at least the same numbers as those switching from Remain to Leave. I am guessing they are not feeling too good about their Leave vote in that case.

Just speculating but when we get to the point where people who voted Leave and have changed their mind feel that they can say it openly, it will also give permission to the Remain -> Leave switchers to revert back to their previous view so a fairly sudden swing to Remain could happen.

OldKingCole

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_P said:

Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/857503391035031552

Insulting the British will only harden attitudes

To say some here have some illusions isn’t an insult. It’s statement of fact.

Ishmael_Z

Brexit was procured, ultimately, by a handful of desperate and poorly educated fruitcakes and nutters of blinkered and unpalatable views who formed a political party in 1991 and stood in national elections. There are by all accounts millions of UK citizens, and those the younger and better educated, who wanted to Bremain then and still wish we had Bremained now. We are a mature democracy. There is a General Election looming, at which even comedy outfits like the Monster Raving Loony Party, and Labour, will be fielding candidates. Is there the remotest sign anywhere of a Remain party seeking to contest seats anywhere in this election, or is the Remain view still universally that the only acceptable form of political endeavour is trolling the internet? Because that worked well last time, lads.

In other news there are signs that Con are tentatively reviving the £350m gag, two days running I have heard tories that, well, we wouldn't want to commit to a figure, but Brexit may certainly free up funds which could be put to good use in the NHS.

JosiasJessop

glw said:

another_richard said:

Ten months ago today and we were told that economic Armageddon was already happening:

Remainers criticise the £350 million for the NHS figure with some justification, but I can't recall any of them conceding what a load of old bollocks Project Fear has turned out to be. If there was a "big lie" of the referendum campaign it was the wall to wall drivel about the economy from the Remain side, and as you say ten months on we haven't had to resort to cannibalism. Although I dare say some Remainer will now pipe up to say "we haven't left yet".

"what a load of old bollocks"

"resort to cannibalism"

Accusing one side of bollocks, and then coming out with your bollocks a few lines later, doesn't help your argument.

surbiton

OllyT said:

tlg86 said:

On topic - would Yougov have done this tracker if Remain had won?

I think it was always going to be of more interest in what the public feel as we move through the Brexit process. I expect the "wrong" lead to harden once we get into the real nitty-gritty.

I feel that by autumn 2018, the "wrong" lead would be about 10%. That is why May called the election now. Not the expenses scandal. Politicians are corrupt, the public knows that.

Nigelb

Scott_P said:

Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/857503391035031552

Clear evidence Angela is a PB lurker ?

murali_s

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_P said:

Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/857503391035031552

Insulting the British will only harden attitudes

I don't think it's an insult - just reality. We have no cards to play. We will have to accept the deal presented to us like good little schoolboys!.

Morning all by the way!

Philip_Thompson

AlastairMeeks said:

freetochoose said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The chart shows no real movement either way. This is itself interesting because usually policy becomes more popular once it has been adopted.

That Brexit hasn't become more popular is in all likelihood a continuing memory of Remainers of the xenophobic lies that Leave campaigned on.

I'm finding it funny now, it used to be tiresome

Hilarious:

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/02b230449f750df147b3f85fa7ce060bae0b325a/494_0_3002_1801/3002.jpg?w=700&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=e28848bed247434d84ea97d5ae3389d4

Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.

I see one set of footprints in that image. I don't think anyone ever thought every single person from Turkey would move. Though there are twice as many Turks as Poles and there is a greater discrepancy in living standards between the UK and Turkey so we could reasonably predict more than twice as many Turks would emigrate as Poles did.