From where I sit, it looks more like a Lib Dem strategy to keep Caroline Lucas in Whitehall. No doubt the Greens will be reciprocating in kind in other constituencies.
Lewes is the one. Remain friendly with a 5.5% green vote. I make it very, very close - and the Greens withdrawing there could tip it to Blundell. If UKIP also withdraw though then I think the Tories win.
Overall there is very little change of opinion since the referendum. Curiously, I know people who have switched from Remain to Leave but no-one who claims to have gone the other way. But they must exist in at least the same numbers as those switching from Remain to Leave. I am guessing they are not feeling too good about their Leave vote in that case.
Although the effect is marginal, more people who voted Leave have died than people who voted Remain over the past year. But, in all likelihood, people have got slightly more pro-Leave as they age.
Also, polling tends to show Remain sentiment is stronger among people who didn't vote in the Referendum.
UKIP CHAOS Ukip could field just 100 candidates at General Election as Paul Nuttall struggles to find wannabe MPs Nuttall emailed all local party branches to give them the green light not to run against a pro-Brexit incumbent
Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.
I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.
I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.
I find it disgusting.
Oh well.
Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?
From that non sequitur I take it that you accept that you are intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain. Thanks for confirming.
Well dodged, I'm still curious if there are any countries that you wouldn't enter into political union with.
You're not xenophobic in any way are you?
No, we'll stick with the point at hand. Turkey is not joining the EU. Yet Vote Leave decided that it would campaign on a straightforward lie, conjuring up in the public's minds a wave of hordes of Turkish immigrants. But you are fine with all of that. So you're intensely relaxed to campaign on xenophobic lies.
That's why Brexit is a moral disaster for the nation.
Yet, the nation remains a free, democratic, liberal country, with a moderate government.
UKIP CHAOS Ukip could field just 100 candidates at General Election as Paul Nuttall struggles to find wannabe MPs Nuttall emailed all local party branches to give them the green light not to run against a pro-Brexit incumbent
Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.
I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.
I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.
I find it disgusting.
Oh well.
Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?
From that non sequitur I take it that you accept that you are intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain. Thanks for confirming.
Well dodged, I'm still curious if there are any countries that you wouldn't enter into political union with.
You're not xenophobic in any way are you?
No, we'll stick with the point at hand. Turkey is not joining the EU. Yet Vote Leave decided that it would campaign on a straightforward lie, conjuring up in the public's minds a wave of hordes of Turkish immigrants. But you are fine with all of that. So you're intensely relaxed to campaign on xenophobic lies.
That's why Brexit is a moral disaster for the nation.
Yet, the nation remains a free, democratic, liberal country, with a moderate government.
F1: think Russia's on at normal times, so pre-qualifying should be up on Saturday, late morning.
Morning, Mr.D. 100% nailed on Mercedes track, historically, so if Ferrari can win here, they can take the championship. For now, my money would still be in Mercedes/Hamilton to win here, but the practice sessions will be very interesting indeed (to those few of us interested in such things).
From where I sit, it looks more like a Lib Dem strategy to keep Caroline Lucas in Whitehall. No doubt the Greens will be reciprocating in kind in other constituencies.
Lewes is the one. Remain friendly with a 5.5% green vote. I make it very, very close - and the Greens withdrawing there could tip it to Blundell. If UKIP also withdraw though then I think the Tories win.
If the Greens don't stand in Lewes then I suppose it might have been worth it for the Lib Dems. But if Lucas was to end up losing her seat I'd suggest the Greens should be very upset with the Lib Dems!
HMRC have published today a spreadsheet of average income (mean and median) per constituency. The latest data is only from 14/15 so a couple of year out of date. But it is illustrative of what income might be perceived as "rich" in various constituencies:
Also the ONS have published detailed data on the number of households in poverty based on middle layer areas - broadly electoral wards/devisions I think.
But we have NOT left yet. It is a simple matter of fact, and the full effects of Brexit are unknowable until we HAVE fully left, something which now looks to be in the 2020s with all the talk of transitional arrangements and such like.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Project Fear seems to have died down for now, but I still haven't heard anyone say "we got it wrong". I wonder how many years it will take for people to concede that they hyped it way too much?
Growth will be down to 0.5 or 0.4 tomorrow and it will all start up again. Its tedious.
I'm feeling pretty comfortable about our bet, by the way.
Actually, it is Merkel that is not seeing clearly. The issue that needs to be discussed is MUTUAL access to each others markets. However, Merkel and the EU seem to think this involves them taking whatever market access they want, and the refusing us the market access that we need to make the deal work. Constantly referring to the 'old EU rules' is irrelevant as we have left the EU and have stated that we don't want to be in the single market. She needs to start looking at this as an FTA negotiation, not re-fighting the outcome of the referendum.
A 'deal' that involves tariff free trade on goods and limited access to services is not in the interests of the UK and should be rejected.
There will be no deal. Hope that May is realising that and after the election she can start having an honest conversation with the public about the costs and benefits (because there will be both) of going it alone.
From where I sit, it looks more like a Lib Dem strategy to keep Caroline Lucas in Whitehall. No doubt the Greens will be reciprocating in kind in other constituencies.
Lewes is the one. Remain friendly with a 5.5% green vote. I make it very, very close - and the Greens withdrawing there could tip it to Blundell. If UKIP also withdraw though then I think the Tories win.
If the Greens don't stand in Lewes then I suppose it might have been worth it for the Lib Dems. But if Lucas was to end up losing her seat I'd suggest the Greens should be very upset with the Lib Dems!
Ha ! Personally I couldn't care less whether the Greens or Tories win in Brighton. But I'm hoping for a bit of Green reciprocity elsewhere Green -> Lib Dem transfer alot more likely than Green -> Tory transfer I reckon.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Sterling dropped precipitously, and has not recovered. The economic effects of that are showing up in other numbers now.
And we still haven't left yet
Wrong - there has been a small recovery against the euro and a larger one against the dollar. May or may not be Brexit related. the level of the £ is pretty healthy for exporters whilst most holidaymakers will find Spain for example 10-20% cheaper than last year. It is a competitive market.
Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.
I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.
I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.
I find it disgusting.
Oh well.
Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?
From that non sequitur I take it that you accept that you are intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain. Thanks for confirming.
Well dodged, I'm still curious if there are any countries that you wouldn't enter into political union with.
You're not xenophobic in any way are you?
No, we'll stick with the point at hand. Turkey is not joining the EU. Yet Vote Leave decided that it would campaign on a straightforward lie, conjuring up in the public's minds a wave of hordes of Turkish immigrants. But you are fine with all of that. So you're intensely relaxed to campaign on xenophobic lies.
That's why Brexit is a moral disaster for the nation.
Turkey was joining the EU. It was officially doing so accepted by both the EU, our government and Turkey. Just because accession hasn't been completed yet does not make it a lie. The lie is "yes we have said Turkey would join when it is ready but we didn't really mean it".
Turkey would have joined (or would be joining the EU) - with a long free movement transition period - had it met all the accession criteria, and had the threat of veto of accession been lifted by countries like France, and Austria.
Mr. B, not sure it's a useful statistical comparison as Russia has only, I think, been on the calendar during Mercedes' dominant period.
Passing's hard, safety car likely. Backed, and tipped, Force India for double points at 3 (Ladbrokes) the other day. Not certain by any stretch, but given they've done it at 3/3 races so far, the odds are wonky.
Where I am currently sat in Vienna is equally protectionist. Indeed an Irish collegue lives in Vienna but cannot obtain work here because the Austrians will not hire any non Austrian. The Economist has a good summary of why the Single Market in services does not work - see below.
I was watching a good video on Deutsche Welle about German Fisherman being dependent on UK waters. I personally doubt that any compromise will be available on fishing for several obvious reasons - the first being that Theresa May can turn what were previously Red / Flirting with Independence Scots Fishing communities Blue for a generation by telling the EU to take a running jump. Secondly the market for fish is now global. There are species of fish where they are shipped out to China, filleted and shipped back. The Chinese are paranoid about food supply after numerous poisoning scandals, they certainly trust British food supplies so the fish can probably be sold to China. If not they will find ready markets in other parts of the world - just look at the Icelandic Fisheries industry. But the point is that Western European countries are vulnerable in certain key sectors, and whilst Merkel has reigned them in for now it will be a bit different in 2 years when 10% of the Bavarian workforce at BMW is chucked out of the door. The problem lies in the Romania's and Croatia's of this world who don't really deal much with UK Plc. Of course they are incredibly vulnerable in Security but that is a different discussion.
The big Atom Bomb for me is the City. That 74% non SEPA is where European Banks currently on life support get their liquidity. If we took our bat home and started charging them a great deal more calling it "Political Risk" (Just as the Indians and the Chinese did to Russia post OFAC sanctions charging an additional 2%) then we could burn Europe to the ground. I know already that the UK has instructed a very large bank to set up European Subsidiaries because they don't want UK PLC responsible for Eurozone default (Which will no doubt be cited by Remain supporters as evidence of UK weakness when they move some staff to cover this), it is not a long road from there to charging a couple of hundred basis points.
To me it looks more like a simple statement of fact rather than an insult. Remember that our glorious Press tends to report the lunatic fringe of any story because it makes better headlines so no doubt Frau Merkel sees the pronouncements of Bill Cash and the Mogster and their fellow extreme Brexiteers - our elected representatives (!) - presented as fact.
It also does not help that the govt's Three Brexiteers are prone to making announcements that cause many to go "WTF???"
It's just as well that 'remainers ' are never subject to the sins of exaggeration or hyperbole about the effects of Brexit.
That Mr Meeks still thinks "we were lying to the Turks when we said they could join" is a winning argument is incredible. Vote Leave repeated in good faith our own government saying the Turks would join.
Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.
I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.
I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.
I find it disgusting.
Oh well.
Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?
From that non sequitur I take it that you accept that you are intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain. Thanks for confirming.
Well dodged, I'm still curious if there are any countries that you wouldn't enter into political union with.
You're not xenophobic in any way are you?
No, we'll stick with the point at hand. Turkey is not joining the EU. Yet Vote Leave decided that it would campaign on a straightforward lie, conjuring up in the public's minds a wave of hordes of Turkish immigrants. But you are fine with all of that. So you're intensely relaxed to campaign on xenophobic lies.
That's why Brexit is a moral disaster for the nation.
blockquote>
Turkey would have joined (or would be joining the EU) - with a long free movement transition period - had it met all the accession criteria, and had the threat of veto of accession been lifted by countries like France, and Austria.
The UK would never have exercised its veto.
But, the UK was relying on other countries to exercise their veto.
Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.
I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.
I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.
I find it disgusting.
Oh well.
Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?
From that non sequitur I take it that you accept that you are intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain. Thanks for confirming.
Well dodged, I'm still curious if there are any countries that you wouldn't enter into political union with.
You're not xenophobic in any way are you?
No, we'll stick with the point at hand. Turkey is not joining the EU. Yet Vote Leave decided that it would campaign on a straightforward lie, conjuring up in the public's minds a wave of hordes of Turkish immigrants. But you are fine with all of that. So you're intensely relaxed to campaign on xenophobic lies.
That's why Brexit is a moral disaster for the nation.
If Turkey had joined the EU, and it was official UK Government policy for it to do so, I expect we would have seen an additional 80-150k Turkish migrants into the UK each year under free movement, post transition.
Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.
I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.
I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.
I find it disgusting.
Oh well.
Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?
From that non sequitur I take it that you accept that you are intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain. Thanks for confirming.
Well dodged, I'm still curious if there are any countries that you wouldn't enter into political union with.
You're not xenophobic in any way are you?
No, we'll stick with the point at hand. Turkey is not joining the EU. Yet Vote Leave decided that it would campaign on a straightforward lie, conjuring up in the public's minds a wave of hordes of Turkish immigrants. But you are fine with all of that. So you're intensely relaxed to campaign on xenophobic lies.
That's why Brexit is a moral disaster for the nation.
If Turkey had joined the EU, and it was official UK Government policy for it to do so, I expect we would have seen an additional 80-150k Turkish migrants into the UK each year under free movement, post transition.
Turkey is not joining the EU. That is the mark of shame that all Leavers will need to bear from now on. It's indelible. Own it.
From where I sit, it looks more like a Lib Dem strategy to keep Caroline Lucas in Whitehall. No doubt the Greens will be reciprocating in kind in other constituencies.
Lewes is the one. Remain friendly with a 5.5% green vote. I make it very, very close - and the Greens withdrawing there could tip it to Blundell. If UKIP also withdraw though then I think the Tories win.
Indeed, Caulifield’s majority is only 1K, a gift of 2.7K votes will come in handy for Ms Blundell.
Where I am currently sat in Vienna is equally protectionist. Indeed an Irish collegue lives in Vienna but cannot obtain work here because the Austrians will not hire any non Austrian. The Economist has a good summary of why the Single Market in services does not work - see below.
I was watching a good video on Deutsche Welle about German Fisherman being dependent on UK waters. I personally doubt that any compromise will be available on fishing for several obvious reasons - the first being that Theresa May can turn what were previously Red / Flirting with Independence Scots Fishing communities Blue for a generation by telling the EU to take a running jump. Secondly the market for fish is now global. There are species of fish where they are shipped out to China, filleted and shipped back. The Chinese are paranoid about food supply after numerous poisoning scandals, they certainly trust British food supplies so the fish can probably be sold to China. If not they will find ready markets in other parts of the world - just look at the Icelandic Fisheries industry. But the point is that Western European countries are vulnerable in certain key sectors, and whilst Merkel has reigned them in for now it will be a bit different in 2 years when 10% of the Bavarian workforce at BMW is chucked out of the door. The problem lies in the Romania's and Croatia's of this world who don't really deal much with UK Plc. Of course they are incredibly vulnerable in Security but that is a different discussion.
The big Atom Bomb for me is the City. That 74% non SEPA is where European Banks currently on life support get their liquidity. If we took our bat home and started charging them a great deal more calling it "Political Risk" (Just as the Indians and the Chinese did to Russia post OFAC sanctions charging an additional 2%) then we could burn Europe to the ground. I know already that the UK has instructed a very large bank to set up European Subsidiaries because they don't want UK PLC responsible for Eurozone default (Which will no doubt be cited by Remain supporters as evidence of UK weakness when they move some staff to cover this), it is not a long road from there to charging a couple of hundred basis points.
According to YG, the majority favour banning the burqa/niqab by 55-45.
Women favour a ban more strongly than men and it is supported in all regions except London. A third of Lib Dems, Labourites and Remainers support a ban.
WRT the polls, both Opinium and Panelbase have also recently shown small majorities favouring Brexit.
I imagine that very few Conservative Remain voters think they were wrong to vote Remain, but not many of them are unhappy with the outcome either. Plenty of them post here, and plenty of them are represented in the Parliamentary party.
The percentage of voters who wish to overturn Brexit is far lower than 45% (ICM found it to be 21%).
Analogy time. You and your family or peer group debate whether to eat at restaurant A or restaurant B. You favour A, the majority favours B. You go to restaurant B. Do you do your best to ensure that the group has a good time at restaurant B or do you sulk for the rest of the evening, insult the waiters and pocket the tip on the way out?
The whole EU family used to go to Restaurant A, with Mum (Ger) and Dad (UK) paying for everyone, with Auntie (Fra) chipping in. Mum and Dad are getting divorced, so Dad wants to go to Restaurant B with some new friends in the hope of starting a new family. Mum, Auntie Frances and the rest still want Dad to pay his share of their bill. Dad would like to stay friends with everyone, but Mum and Aunty Frances don't want him to come into the restaurant - he may be allowed to wave through the window if continues to pay a share of the bill.
From where I sit, it looks more like a Lib Dem strategy to keep Caroline Lucas in Whitehall. No doubt the Greens will be reciprocating in kind in other constituencies.
Lewes is the one. Remain friendly with a 5.5% green vote. I make it very, very close - and the Greens withdrawing there could tip it to Blundell. If UKIP also withdraw though then I think the Tories win.
Indeed, Caulifield’s majority is only 1K, a gift of 2.7K votes will come in handy for Ms Blundell.
On some of the leaflets I got from the Leave campaign, not only was Turkey mentioned but on a map countries such as Syria and Iran were also shaded in red.. The subliminal messaging was clear - it was xenophobic politics at its worst.
Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.
I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.
I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.
I find it disgusting.
Oh well.
Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?
From that non sequitur I take it that you accept that you are intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain. Thanks for confirming.
Well dodged, I'm still curious if there are any countries that you wouldn't enter into political union with.
You're not xenophobic in any way are you?
No, we'll stick with the point at hand. Turkey is not joining the EU. Yet Vote Leave decided that it would campaign on a straightforward lie, conjuring up in the public's minds a wave of hordes of Turkish immigrants. But you are fine with all of that. So you're intensely relaxed to campaign on xenophobic lies.
That's why Brexit is a moral disaster for the nation.
If Turkey had joined the EU, and it was official UK Government policy for it to do so, I expect we would have seen an additional 80-150k Turkish migrants into the UK each year under free movement, post transition.
Turkey is not joining the EU. That is the mark of shame that all Leavers will need to bear from now on. It's indelible. Own it.
It actually demonstrates that you shouldn't pretend to advocate something that you don't believe in (the Government supporting Turkey joining the EU). Your opponents are quite entitled to take you at your word.
Been doing some thinking about the anecdotal evidence of heavier drift in Labour's heartlands, especially the NE. I'm wondering if this might be an effect of proximity to Scotland and a washover of the meltdown there felt less in London and the South seeing events in that 'distant realm'. Consequently I'm of the opinion the NE will be a bloodbath, and had further concluded to lump on Sunderland Central but can only find 3/1. Don't think that's value? Conclusion- I think too slow
Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.
I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.
I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.
I find it disgusting.
Oh well.
Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?
From that non sequitur I take it that you accept that you are intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain. Thanks for confirming.
Well dodged, I'm still curious if there are any countries that you wouldn't enter into political union with.
You're not xenophobic in any way are you?
No, we'll stick with the point at hand. Turkey is not joining the EU. Yet Vote Leave decided that it would campaign on a straightforward lie, conjuring up in the public's minds a wave of hordes of Turkish immigrants. But you are fine with all of that. So you're intensely relaxed to campaign on xenophobic lies.
That's why Brexit is a moral disaster for the nation.
If Turkey had joined the EU, and it was official UK Government policy for it to do so, I expect we would have seen an additional 80-150k Turkish migrants into the UK each year under free movement, post transition.
Turkey is not joining the EU. That is the mark of shame that all Leavers will need to bear from now on. It's indelible. Own it.
Not really. What if people voted Leave without caring whether the Turkey claim was true or not? Both sides lied, neither has the moral high ground.
HMRC have published today a spreadsheet of average income (mean and median) per constituency. The latest data is only from 14/15 so a couple of year out of date. But it is illustrative of what income might be perceived as "rich" in various constituencies:
Also the ONS have published detailed data on the number of households in poverty based on middle layer areas - broadly electoral wards/devisions I think.
Turkey is not joining the EU. That is the mark of shame that all Leavers will need to bear from now on. It's indelible. Own it.
It actually demonstrates that you shouldn't pretend to advocate something that you don't believe in (the Government supporting Turkey joining the EU). Your opponents are quite entitled to take you at your word.
You can keep telling yourself that it's ok to tell xenophobic lies. But it isn't.
Analogy time. You and your family or peer group debate whether to eat at restaurant A or restaurant B. You favour A, the majority favours B. You go to restaurant B. Do you do your best to ensure that the group has a good time at restaurant B or do you sulk for the rest of the evening, insult the waiters and pocket the tip on the way out?
The whole EU family used to go to Restaurant A, with Mum (Ger) and Dad (UK) paying for everyone, with Auntie (Fra) chipping in. Mum and Dad are getting divorced, so Dad wants to go to Restaurant B with some new friends in the hope of starting a new family. Mum, Auntie Frances and the rest still want Dad to pay his share of their bill. Dad would like to stay friends with everyone, but Mum and Aunty Frances don't want him to come into the restaurant - he may be allowed to wave through the window if continues to pay a share of the bill.
Does Restaurant B have hot waitresses?
Dad should tell them to get stuffed and go and spend his money in Sportscar Salesroom C and Whorehouse D followed by a weekend at Golf Course E.
Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.
I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.
I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.
I find it disgusting.
Oh well.
Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?
From that non sequitur I take it that you accept that you are intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain. Thanks for confirming.
Well dodged, I'm still curious if there are any countries that you wouldn't enter into political union with.
You're not xenophobic in any way are you?
No, we'll stick with the point at hand. Turkey is not joining the EU. Yet Vote Leave decided that it would campaign on a straightforward lie, conjuring up in the public's minds a wave of hordes of Turkish immigrants. But you are fine with all of that. So you're intensely relaxed to campaign on xenophobic lies.
That's why Brexit is a moral disaster for the nation.
If Turkey had joined the EU, and it was official UK Government policy for it to do so, I expect we would have seen an additional 80-150k Turkish migrants into the UK each year under free movement, post transition.
Turkey is not joining the EU. That is the mark of shame that all Leavers will need to bear from now on. It's indelible. Own it.
It is an official candidate that is going through the accession process. It was UK Government policy that Turkish membership is a UK foreign policy goal, which the Government chose not to deny.
I bear no mark of shame, and I'd do it all over again.
Been doing some thinking about the anecdotal evidence of heavier drift in Labour's heartlands, especially the NE. I'm wondering if this might be an effect of proximity to Scotland and a washover of the meltdown there felt less in London and the South seeing events in that 'distant realm'. Consequently I'm of the opinion the NE will be a bloodbath, and had further concluded to lump on Sunderland Central but can only find 3/1. Don't think that's value? Conclusion- I think too slow
Blyth Valley goes before Sunderland Central according to my spreadsheet. I got some pennies on at 4-1.
It is an official candidate that is going through the accession process. It was UK Government policy that Turkish membership is a UK foreign policy goal, which the Government chose not to deny.
I bear no mark of shame, and I'd do it all over again.
Of course you would. You're very relaxed about whipping up xenophobia with lies, just so long as you achieve your irrelevant dream of getting Britain out of the EU.
Been doing some thinking about the anecdotal evidence of heavier drift in Labour's heartlands, especially the NE. I'm wondering if this might be an effect of proximity to Scotland and a washover of the meltdown there felt less in London and the South seeing events in that 'distant realm'. Consequently I'm of the opinion the NE will be a bloodbath, and had further concluded to lump on Sunderland Central but can only find 3/1. Don't think that's value? Conclusion- I think too slow
Blyth Valley goes before Sunderland Central according to my spreadsheet. I got some pennies on at 4-1.
Sedgefield Is awful value now too! I think I'm going to wait for 'polling noise' to give the odds a nudge
Where I am currently sat in Vienna is equally protectionist. Indeed an Irish collegue lives in Vienna but cannot obtain work here because the Austrians will not hire any non Austrian. The Economist has a good summary of why the Single Market in services does not work - see below.
I was watching a good video on Deutsche Welle about German Fisherman being dependent on UK waters. I personally doubt that any compromise will be available on fishing for several obvious reasons - the first being that Theresa May can turn what were previously Red / Flirting with Independence Scots Fishing communities Blue for a generation by telling the EU to take a running jump. Secondly the market for fish is now global. There are species of fish where they are shipped out to China, filleted and shipped back. The Chinese are paranoid about food supply after numerous poisoning scandals, they certainly trust British food supplies so the fish can probably be sold to China. If not they will find ready markets in other parts of the world - just look at the Icelandic Fisheries industry. But the point is that Western European countries are vulnerable in certain key sectors, and whilst Merkel has reigned them in for now it will be a bit different in 2 years when 10% of the Bavarian workforce at BMW is chucked out of the door. The problem lies in the Romania's and Croatia's of this world who don't really deal much with UK Plc. Of course they are incredibly vulnerable in Security but that is a different discussion.
The big Atom Bomb for me is the City. That 74% non SEPA is where European Banks currently on life support get their liquidity. If we took our bat home and started charging them a great deal more calling it "Political Risk" (Just as the Indians and the Chinese did to Russia post OFAC sanctions charging an additional 2%) then we could burn Europe to the ground. I know already that the UK has instructed a very large bank to set up European Subsidiaries because they don't want UK PLC responsible for Eurozone default (Which will no doubt be cited by Remain supporters as evidence of UK weakness when they move some staff to cover this), it is not a long road from there to charging a couple of hundred basis points.
Thanks for the insights and welcome to PB. Shows that most of us are pretty ignorant of the true working of the Single Market.
Been doing some thinking about the anecdotal evidence of heavier drift in Labour's heartlands, especially the NE. I'm wondering if this might be an effect of proximity to Scotland and a washover of the meltdown there felt less in London and the South seeing events in that 'distant realm'. Consequently I'm of the opinion the NE will be a bloodbath, and had further concluded to lump on Sunderland Central but can only find 3/1. Don't think that's value? Conclusion- I think too slow
another_richard tipped Sunderland Central on here at 14/1 on Tuesday and within an hour or so it was down to 3/1.
Golly how thick is that? the purpose of the election is to secure a big enough majority for May to have flexibility re Brexit and stop the idiot LDs et al from trying to mess up the negotiations.
According to YG, the majority favour banning the burqa/niqab by 55-45.
Women favour a ban more strongly than men and it is supported in all regions except London. A third of Lib Dems, Labourites and Remainers support a ban.
Don't you find the little footprints particularly amusing? It's almost as if the artist was inviting the viewer to conjure up images of 76 million Muslims marching across English soil.
I think you misunderstand, I'm giggling at you, not a poster.
I realise that you're intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain.
I find it disgusting.
Oh well.
Are there any countries you wouldn't enter into political union with?
From that non sequitur I take it that you accept that you are intensely relaxed about whipping up xenophobia in pursuit of political gain. Thanks for confirming.
Well ?
No
.
Yet, the nation remains a free, democratic, liberal country, with a moderate government.
In order, yes, yes, no and no.
You are wrong on the moderate government.
Where I might agree (a little bit) is that there is a risk the UK becomes slightly more illiberal: that is, we extend extensive and sweeping surveillance powers, ID cards make a comeback, and we get a bit more executive authoritarianism.
That's why I think it's so important to launch a cross-party constitutional convention, to create a new British Bill of Rights, reform the HoL, and devolution settlements, and ensure our governance in general is fit-for-purpose as a fully independent nation, with the right checks and balances in place.
Been doing some thinking about the anecdotal evidence of heavier drift in Labour's heartlands, especially the NE. I'm wondering if this might be an effect of proximity to Scotland and a washover of the meltdown there felt less in London and the South seeing events in that 'distant realm'. Consequently I'm of the opinion the NE will be a bloodbath, and had further concluded to lump on Sunderland Central but can only find 3/1. Don't think that's value? Conclusion- I think too slow
another_richard tipped Sunderland Central on here at 14/1 on Tuesday and within an hour or so it was down to 3/1.
Spent too long musing. I'm new to political bets if an old hand on PB.com!
I don't often agree with Mr Meeks, but he's correct about Turkey. A cursory inspection of Turkey's woeful progress in meeting the accession criteria would have shown that they had no chance of joining, vetoes notwithstanding. Turkish accession has always been a polite diplomatic fiction, useful for both parties.
Where I think he errs is in assuming that all Leave voters took their cues from the dreadful EUref campaign (both sides were terrible, it's arguable who were the greater sinners). I'd been an 'on balance, out' since 2008 or so. I've since repented of that view as regulars will know. However, I'm not wearing a hair-shirt and indulging in self-flagellation. Sorry.
Rotherham Labour @ 8-13 looks great. Demographically I can't see it going.
Rother Valley is much, much more white - though the odds don't particularly appeal either way (It is more or less Evens the pair). It'll be very close.
It is an official candidate that is going through the accession process. It was UK Government policy that Turkish membership is a UK foreign policy goal, which the Government chose not to deny.
I bear no mark of shame, and I'd do it all over again.
Of course you would. You're very relaxed about whipping up xenophobia with lies, just so long as you achieve your irrelevant dream of getting Britain out of the EU.
Nope. It was a legitimate way of framing the free movement issue, and its potential future impact. Where would it end?
Even if Turkey might not be joining imminently, if it had reformed and the French/Austrian veto threats been lifted, it could have joined in 5-10, and the UK would have done nothing to stop it, and this was a once in a generation vote.
It wasn't the job of Vote Leave to point out the Government was secretly lying. All political campaigns exploit the political weaknesses of their opponents, and the Government decided not to contest it deciding it was the job of the voters to work out they were lying.
Mr. B, not sure it's a useful statistical comparison as Russia has only, I think, been on the calendar during Mercedes' dominant period.
Passing's hard, safety car likely. Backed, and tipped, Force India for double points at 3 (Ladbrokes) the other day. Not certain by any stretch, but given they've done it at 3/3 races so far, the odds are wonky.
Indeed, but it is the nature of Mercedes' domination at the circuit - it's arguably their strongest venue. With this year's hard to handle cars, and a couple of dodgy drivers, the safety car is a banker (which ought also to help Mercedes, as this is a circuit at which they might be fuel constrained).
"Many among the hundreds of thousands who joined Labour to support Corbyn will not campaign to help Labour MPs defend their seats against a formidable Tory attack. As they see every Labour politician who refuses to see the light as a Tory or worse than the Tories, why should they? Labour MPs are already telling me that Momentum activists are noticeable by their absence from the campaign."
Nomenklatura, post-election:
"Corbyn and the far left will not willingly relinquish their grip on the Labour party after they lead it to defeat. They will continue to purge Labour until it becomes a true church. This is religion not politics, and Corbyn’s supporters are the elect. Why should they respect the judgement of a damned electorate?"
Few here will be surprised by Cohen's comments, but still. He does have a way with words.
Been doing some thinking about the anecdotal evidence of heavier drift in Labour's heartlands, especially the NE. I'm wondering if this might be an effect of proximity to Scotland and a washover of the meltdown there felt less in London and the South seeing events in that 'distant realm'. Consequently I'm of the opinion the NE will be a bloodbath, and had further concluded to lump on Sunderland Central but can only find 3/1. Don't think that's value? Conclusion- I think too slow
Blyth Valley goes before Sunderland Central according to my spreadsheet. I got some pennies on at 4-1.
I remember all the hype re Sunderland Central before the 2010 election. It had voted Tory in the local elections, boundaries couldn't be better blah blah blah. In the end they got nowhere near. UKIP and Tory combined are still behind Labour.
Are we not getting to the stage where some of the overreaction and betting in response to it means there is some great value in backing Labour in some seats?
From where I sit, it looks more like a Lib Dem strategy to keep Caroline Lucas in Whitehall. No doubt the Greens will be reciprocating in kind in other constituencies.
Lewes is the one. Remain friendly with a 5.5% green vote. I make it very, very close - and the Greens withdrawing there could tip it to Blundell. If UKIP also withdraw though then I think the Tories win.
Indeed, Caulifield’s majority is only 1K, a gift of 2.7K votes will come in handy for Ms Blundell.
On some of the leaflets I got from the Leave campaign, not only was Turkey mentioned but on a map countries such as Syria and Iran were also shaded in red.. The subliminal messaging was clear - it was xenophobic politics at its worst.
Not sure how that effects voting in the Lewes constituency, but thank you for your input.
Mr. Meeks, all Leavers? Including those for whom it made no difference whatsoever?
Morris - now the position is clear as regards Zac Goldsmith standing for the Tories in Richmond Park, the betting has sorted itself out with the LibDems priced at 4/7 and the Tories at 5/4 (both with Betfair Sportsbook) ..... just in case you were minded to de-risk your 25/1 bet on the Yellow Team.
"My view is that views of BREXIT is more important in constituencies that voted remain than those that went for leave. Thus LAB was able to hang on in the Stoke central by-election but in Richmond Park the Liberal Democrats were able to overturn Zac’s 23,000 General Election majority even though UKIP stood aside and gave him a free run"
That feels right. It's very difficult for Remain supporters to accept with equanimity a result we believe was achieved by appealing to the lowest common denominator. Of course we're going to do all we can to sabotage those with these unenlightened views.
Totally OT - Qantas have confirmed they'll start non-stop London-Australia (Perth) flights next year. 18.5 hours in the air seems like a very long time.....
It is an official candidate that is going through the accession process. It was UK Government policy that Turkish membership is a UK foreign policy goal, which the Government chose not to deny.
I bear no mark of shame, and I'd do it all over again.
Of course you would. You're very relaxed about whipping up xenophobia with lies, just so long as you achieve your irrelevant dream of getting Britain out of the EU.
Nope. It was a legitimate way of framing the free movement issue, and its potential future impact. Where would it end?
Even if Turkey might not be joining imminently, if it had reformed and the French/Austrian veto threats been lifted, it could have joined in 5-10, and the UK would have done nothing to stop it, and this was a once in a generation vote.
So the argument goes:
- Turkey joining the EU would have an impact on us. - Let's give up our veto on Turkey joining the EU because we don't trust our own government to use it anyway.
The EU impacts us whether we're in or out because it is the supreme political body in Europe. There is no getting away from this fact.
Totally OT - Qantas have confirmed they'll start non-stop London-Australia (Perth) flights next year. 18.5 hours in the air seems like a very long time.....
They could use that as the new water-boarding on terrorist suspects to get them to talk !!!!
Golly how thick is that? the purpose of the election is to secure a big enough majority for May to have flexibility re Brexit and stop the idiot LDs et al from trying to mess up the negotiations.
Believe that and ...
If the PM wanted a mandate for her brand of Brexit, she'd spell out clearly what that is. She already has a majority in the House of Commons, so that fact will not change. The Lords are not up for election, so that will not change either. And as Scott_P points out, nor will it change any other European government or the EU itself. This election was not called because of Brexit.
I don't often agree with Mr Meeks, but he's correct about Turkey. A cursory inspection of Turkey's woeful progress in meeting the accession criteria would have shown that they had no chance of joining, vetoes notwithstanding. Turkish accession has always been a polite diplomatic fiction, useful for both parties.
Where I think he errs is in assuming that all Leave voters took their cues from the dreadful EUref campaign (both sides were terrible, it's arguable who were the greater sinners). I'd been an 'on balance, out' since 2008 or so. I've since repented of that view as regulars will know. However, I'm not wearing a hair-shirt and indulging in self-flagellation. Sorry.
According to Mr Meeks, your shame is indelible. I take that as meaning Luke 15:10 doesn't apply to people to voted Leave.
Re. Nick Cohen's piece, one does of course have to add the filter that he is raging about his party being stolen from him by people Lefter Than He. In which he is not alone, of course. Oh dear, how sad, mustn't cry.
Been doing some thinking about the anecdotal evidence of heavier drift in Labour's heartlands, especially the NE. I'm wondering if this might be an effect of proximity to Scotland and a washover of the meltdown there felt less in London and the South seeing events in that 'distant realm'. Consequently I'm of the opinion the NE will be a bloodbath, and had further concluded to lump on Sunderland Central but can only find 3/1. Don't think that's value? Conclusion- I think too slow
Blyth Valley goes before Sunderland Central according to my spreadsheet. I got some pennies on at 4-1.
I remember all the hype re Sunderland Central before the 2010 election. It had voted Tory in the local elections, boundaries couldn't be better blah blah blah. In the end they got nowhere near. UKIP and Tory combined are still behind Labour.
Are we not getting to the stage where some of the overreaction and betting in response to it means there is some great value in backing Labour in some seats?
Rotherham @ 8-13 Hammersmith @ 2-1 Leeds NorthEast @ more or less evens.
Look for remainy/ethnic or "middle class Labour" places imo.
It is an official candidate that is going through the accession process. It was UK Government policy that Turkish membership is a UK foreign policy goal, which the Government chose not to deny.
I bear no mark of shame, and I'd do it all over again.
Of course you would. You're very relaxed about whipping up xenophobia with lies, just so long as you achieve your irrelevant dream of getting Britain out of the EU.
Nope. It was a legitimate way of framing the free movement issue, and its potential future impact. Where would it end?
Even if Turkey might not be joining imminently, if it had reformed and the French/Austrian veto threats been lifted, it could have joined in 5-10, and the UK would have done nothing to stop it, and this was a once in a generation vote.
It wasn't the job of Vote Leave to point out the Government was secretly lying. All political campaigns exploit the political weaknesses of their opponents, and the Government decided not to contest it deciding it was the job of the voters to work out they were lying.
It's ok. You're very comfortable with direct lies in pursuit of your dream, no matter how much incidental damage they cause. So much is clear.
Turkey is not joining the EU, was not joining the EU last summer and for the foreseeable future will not be joining the EU.
But you were happy to campaign on the basis of a poster showing little Muslim footprints marching towards Britain.
Because Lloyds are opening an office in Brussels ?
Worth pointing out what Lloyd's is, it's the insurance market. That is, it's the market, not the insurers. This new office then allows all of those insurers access to the entire EU marketplace. So in terms of jobs moving it's not really 100 out of 700, it's 100 jobs out of 30,000
Been doing some thinking about the anecdotal evidence of heavier drift in Labour's heartlands, especially the NE. I'm wondering if this might be an effect of proximity to Scotland and a washover of the meltdown there felt less in London and the South seeing events in that 'distant realm'. Consequently I'm of the opinion the NE will be a bloodbath, and had further concluded to lump on Sunderland Central but can only find 3/1. Don't think that's value? Conclusion- I think too slow
Blyth Valley goes before Sunderland Central according to my spreadsheet. I got some pennies on at 4-1.
I remember all the hype re Sunderland Central before the 2010 election. It had voted Tory in the local elections, boundaries couldn't be better blah blah blah. In the end they got nowhere near. UKIP and Tory combined are still behind Labour.
Are we not getting to the stage where some of the overreaction and betting in response to it means there is some great value in backing Labour in some seats?
They're got to 6500 short. They'd fancy it transposing that to now, 8% swing from 2010 IF the kipper vote goes hard Tory, there's a sniff. I would back Labour at over evens not at odds on given polling and mood music in the north.
Golly how thick is that? the purpose of the election is to secure a big enough majority for May to have flexibility re Brexit and stop the idiot LDs et al from trying to mess up the negotiations.
How a party with 8 MPs can mess up the Brexit negotiations is not immediately apparent.
Golly how thick is that? the purpose of the election is to secure a big enough majority for May to have flexibility re Brexit and stop the idiot LDs et al from trying to mess up the negotiations.
How a party with 8 MPs can mess up the Brexit negotiations is not immediately apparent.
Gina Miller's giving it a go too and nobody ever voted for her!
It actually demonstrates that you shouldn't pretend to advocate something that you don't believe in (the Government supporting Turkey joining the EU). Your opponents are quite entitled to take you at your word.
What is Zac going to do when the Government continues with plans for Heathrow?
He made his point, at cost to himself. He will accept that defeat and carry on supporting the Con Govt in other matters. I don't think anyone can accuse him of getting back in the ring, aware as he is of all the fully-loaded shitguns aimed at his head, for the money. A good Con majority would facilitate a number of principled loyal Con objections to non-critical policies in Commons votes.
It is an official candidate that is going through the accession process. It was UK Government policy that Turkish membership is a UK foreign policy goal, which the Government chose not to deny.
I bear no mark of shame, and I'd do it all over again.
Of course you would. You're very relaxed about whipping up xenophobia with lies, just so long as you achieve your irrelevant dream of getting Britain out of the EU.
Nope. It was a legitimate way of framing the free movement issue, and its potential future impact. Where would it end?
Even if Turkey might not be joining imminently, if it had reformed and the French/Austrian veto threats been lifted, it could have joined in 5-10, and the UK would have done nothing to stop it, and this was a once in a generation vote.
It wasn't the job of Vote Leave to point out the Government was secretly lying. All political campaigns exploit the political weaknesses of their opponents, and the Government decided not to contest it deciding it was the job of the voters to work out they were lying.
It's ok. You're very comfortable with direct lies in pursuit of your dream, no matter how much incidental damage they cause. So much is clear.
Turkey is not joining the EU, was not joining the EU last summer and for the foreseeable future will not be joining the EU.
But you were happy to campaign on the basis of a poster showing little Muslim footprints marching towards Britain.
They weren't direct lies. And I don't accept any incidental damage has been caused.
Golly how thick is that? the purpose of the election is to secure a big enough majority for May to have flexibility re Brexit and stop the idiot LDs et al from trying to mess up the negotiations.
I suspect it's more to stop MPs embarrassing Theresa May over Brexit. Emperors without clothes don't want it bandied about.
"...there is a trend when you look at the longer term."
No there isn't. The last two have moved in favour of Remain, following a particularly good score for Leave on April 7th. It's all movement around roughly 45/12/43. Trying to claim there's a trend when there isn't just to suit a Remoaner agenda is beneath what's otherwise a very good site.
Been doing some thinking about the anecdotal evidence of heavier drift in Labour's heartlands, especially the NE. I'm wondering if this might be an effect of proximity to Scotland and a washover of the meltdown there felt less in London and the South seeing events in that 'distant realm'. Consequently I'm of the opinion the NE will be a bloodbath, and had further concluded to lump on Sunderland Central but can only find 3/1. Don't think that's value? Conclusion- I think too slow
Blyth Valley goes before Sunderland Central according to my spreadsheet. I got some pennies on at 4-1.
I remember all the hype re Sunderland Central before the 2010 election. It had voted Tory in the local elections, boundaries couldn't be better blah blah blah. In the end they got nowhere near. UKIP and Tory combined are still behind Labour.
Are we not getting to the stage where some of the overreaction and betting in response to it means there is some great value in backing Labour in some seats?
Rotherham @ 8-13 Hammersmith @ 2-1 Leeds NorthEast @ more or less evens.
Look for remainy/ethnic or "middle class Labour" places imo.
Yes, there are probably 20 or 30 current seats which could be held by Labour against the current expectation, especially if the Tory poll leads were to narrow to any extent. Now could be the time to back these were you so minded. DYOR
If true, it is a classic and quite revealing bit of Theresa May in action. David Cameron might’ve proclaimed a liberal project like this, maybe even risked a fight with his grassroots over it (in the early days of his leadership, at least). Theresa May, by contrast, prefers to get the job done without fuss or, depending on how you look at it, without scrutiny.
What is Zac going to do when the Government continues with plans for Heathrow?
He made his point, at cost to himself. He will accept that defeat and carry on supporting the Con Govt in other matters. I don't think anyone can accuse him of getting back in the ring, aware as he is of all the fully-loaded shitguns aimed at his head, for the money. A good Con majority would facilitate a number of principled loyal Con objections to non-critical policies in Commons votes.
One of the few Tories who is also concerned about the planet, shame he's a Brexiteer.
It is an official candidate that is going through the accession process. It was UK Government policy that Turkish membership is a UK foreign policy goal, which the Government chose not to deny.
I bear no mark of shame, and I'd do it all over again.
Of course you would. You're very relaxed about whipping up xenophobia with lies, just so long as you achieve your irrelevant dream of getting Britain out of the EU.
Nope. It was a legitimate way of framing the free movement issue, and its potential future impact. Where would it end?
Even if Turkey might not be joining imminently, if it had reformed and the French/Austrian veto threats been lifted, it could have joined in 5-10, and the UK would have done nothing to stop it, and this was a once in a generation vote.
It wasn't the job of Vote Leave to point out the Government was secretly lying. All political campaigns exploit the political weaknesses of their opponents, and the Government decided not to contest it deciding it was the job of the voters to work out they were lying.
It's ok. You're very comfortable with direct lies in pursuit of your dream, no matter how much incidental damage they cause. So much is clear.
Turkey is not joining the EU, was not joining the EU last summer and for the foreseeable future will not be joining the EU.
But you were happy to campaign on the basis of a poster showing little Muslim footprints marching towards Britain.
They weren't direct lies. And I don't accept any incidental damage has been caused.
This discussion isn't going anywhere.
Turkey is not joining the EU. Any suggestion to the contrary is a direct lie. This isn't even debatable except in the tortured minds of manic Leavers who are desperate not to admit that they have behaved deplorably and done great incidental damage by their actions.
I don't often agree with Mr Meeks, but he's correct about Turkey. A cursory inspection of Turkey's woeful progress in meeting the accession criteria would have shown that they had no chance of joining, vetoes notwithstanding. Turkish accession has always been a polite diplomatic fiction, useful for both parties.
Where I think he errs is in assuming that all Leave voters took their cues from the dreadful EUref campaign (both sides were terrible, it's arguable who were the greater sinners). I'd been an 'on balance, out' since 2008 or so. I've since repented of that view as regulars will know. However, I'm not wearing a hair-shirt and indulging in self-flagellation. Sorry.
According to Mr Meeks, your shame is indelible. I take that as meaning Luke 15:10 doesn't apply to people to voted Leave.
Remainers are much more Luke 14:18
Wah! £350m! Turkey! Apocalypse Tomorrow! A big boy lied to me and ran away!
Totally OT - Qantas have confirmed they'll start non-stop London-Australia (Perth) flights next year. 18.5 hours in the air seems like a very long time.....
It is - we went Heathrow to Sydney with Quantas with refuel in Bangkok scheduled in 20 hours. However one hour into the Bangkok to Sydney section we lost one of the engines, had to turn back and circle while jettising fuel, and then a full emergency landing back in Bangkok.
Sure the Dreamiliner will not experience our problems and of course Perth is 1,500 miles nearer than Sydney
I'm sure all the Leavers on here who like to claim that Mr Meeks is morally tainted by spending time in Hungary will be applauding Guy Verhofstadt for this:
It is an official candidate that is going through the accession process. It was UK Government policy that Turkish membership is a UK foreign policy goal, which the Government chose not to deny.
I bear no mark of shame, and I'd do it all over again.
Of course you would. You're very relaxed about whipping up xenophobia with lies, just so long as you achieve your irrelevant dream of getting Britain out of the EU.
Nope. It was a legitimate way of framing the free movement issue, and its potential future impact. Where would it end?
Even if Turkey might not be joining imminently, if it had reformed and the French/Austrian veto threats been lifted, it could have joined in 5-10, and the UK would have done nothing to stop it, and this was a once in a generation vote.
It wasn't the job of Vote Leave to point out the Government was secretly lying. All political campaigns exploit the political weaknesses of their opponents, and the Government decided not to contest it deciding it was the job of the voters to work out they were lying.
It's ok. You're very comfortable with direct lies in pursuit of your dream, no matter how much incidental damage they cause. So much is clear.
Turkey is not joining the EU, was not joining the EU last summer and for the foreseeable future will not be joining the EU.
But you were happy to campaign on the basis of a poster showing little Muslim footprints marching towards Britain.
They weren't direct lies. And I don't accept any incidental damage has been caused.
This discussion isn't going anywhere.
No incidental damage eh?
Says the guy that got triggered in Ronnie Scott's Jazz Club over Brexit.
I'm sure all the Leavers on here who like to claim that Mr Meeks is morally tainted by spending time in Hungary will be applauding Guy Verhofstadt for this:
Hundreds of supporters of Jeremy Corbyn booed Nick Robinson, the Radio 4 Today presenter, after he was accused by Ken Loach of Tory “bias” and not being fit to interview the Labour leader.
The veteran left-wing filmmaker told a union meeting yesterday that Robinson had revealed himself as a Tory supporter in a tweet that stated Mr Corbyn was “long on passion and short on details”.
He said: “That’s the partiality of the BBC. That’s the bias we have to complain about. That’s what we have to fight.”
Amid cheers from the audience, Loach, 80, also appeared to say that “people like Nick Robinson” were not fit to “lick his [Jeremy Corbyn’s] boots”.
Currently whiling away a train journey to town with some excel geekery, but having a bit of a weak brain movement.
I've built a model that allows +% and -% for each individual, based on last election's vote.
When people talk about swing, do they reference turnout at all, or is it just +% -%?
Basically, I'm wondering if I should make it even more complex with a turnout facility.....
Is 7 -> 14% +7% everywhere, or do you double the score everywhere say. It is a question I have myself too.
The variables are regional and party based - so you can say labour vote down 16% in Wales, Tories up 11%, Plaid up 5% - then see the results.
I tried it last time and the main impression it gave me was how easy it was for the Tories to win a small majority with big gains in certain areas. E.G. SW....
I'm guessing the way to show depressed turnout (without me banging my head against another nested index match) is to put labour vote down 16%, Tories up 8% and Plaid up 2%.
The sweet spot for the Davidson project, the buzz-phrase that pings around her camp, is being “nationalist-unionists”. As paradoxical as this may sound, it is quite a simple thing: to be seen to stand up for Scotland without wanting to rip it out of the UK. As the SNP begins its inevitable electoral decline, the Tory leader finds herself as the only credible alternative: the main champion of the Union, the leader of the opposition, a woman openly talked of as a future prime minister. It feels strange to type the words after all this time, but they are true: Ruth Davidson’s Scottish Conservatives really do matter again.
I don't often agree with Mr Meeks, but he's correct about Turkey. A cursory inspection of Turkey's woeful progress in meeting the accession criteria would have shown that they had no chance of joining, vetoes notwithstanding. Turkish accession has always been a polite diplomatic fiction, useful for both parties.
Where I think he errs is in assuming that all Leave voters took their cues from the dreadful EUref campaign (both sides were terrible, it's arguable who were the greater sinners). I'd been an 'on balance, out' since 2008 or so. I've since repented of that view as regulars will know. However, I'm not wearing a hair-shirt and indulging in self-flagellation. Sorry.
According to Mr Meeks, your shame is indelible. I take that as meaning Luke 15:10 doesn't apply to people to voted Leave.
I regret my vote, but only in the same way I regret not taking History at A-level. The disapproval of random people on the Internet doesn't carry much weight with me .
It is an official candidate that is going through the accession process. It was UK Government policy that Turkish membership is a UK foreign policy goal, which the Government chose not to deny.
I bear no mark of shame, and I'd do it all over again.
Of course you would. You're very relaxed about whipping up xenophobia with lies, just so long as you achieve your irrelevant dream of getting Britain out of the EU.
Nope. It was a legitimate way of framing the free movement issue, and its potential future impact. Where would it end?
Even if Turkey might not be joining imminently, if it had reformed and the French/Austrian veto threats been lifted, it could have joined in 5-10, and the UK would have done nothing to stop it, and this was a once in a generation vote.
It wasn't the job of Vote Leave to point out the Government was secretly lying. All political campaigns exploit the political weaknesses of their opponents, and the Government decided not to contest it deciding it was the job of the voters to work out they were lying.
It's ok. You're very comfortable with direct lies in pursuit of your dream, no matter how much incidental damage they cause. So much is clear.
Turkey is not joining the EU, was not joining the EU last summer and for the foreseeable future will not be joining the EU.
But you were happy to campaign on the basis of a poster showing little Muslim footprints marching towards Britain.
They weren't direct lies. And I don't accept any incidental damage has been caused.
This discussion isn't going anywhere.
Turkey is not joining the EU. Any suggestion to the contrary is a direct lie. This isn't even debatable except in the tortured minds of manic Leavers who are desperate not to admit that they have behaved deplorably and done great incidental damage by their actions.
You are obsessed with this. I have nothing more to say to you over and above what I've already said. You just keep repeating the same lines in the hope I'll agree with you.
I am very comfortable with the campaign that was fought and my own personal character, thank you.
Golly how thick is that? the purpose of the election is to secure a big enough majority for May to have flexibility re Brexit and stop the idiot LDs et al from trying to mess up the negotiations.
How a party with 8 MPs can mess up the Brexit negotiations is not immediately apparent.
Totally OT - Qantas have confirmed they'll start non-stop London-Australia (Perth) flights next year. 18.5 hours in the air seems like a very long time.....
I was travelling from Atlanta to London and in the seat next to me was a pilot. He explained that on flights of more than eight hours they alaways had a spare pilot who took over flying the plane.
Labour & SNP Muslim MPs whinging about GE taken off at the knees by Muslim Council of GB:
However, the Muslim Council of Britain said it could see "no reason" why holding the election during Ramadan - which this year is expected to be from around May 27 to June 24 - should have any impact on Muslims turning up to vote.
"Muslims fasting during Ramadan will go about their normal daily activities and taking time out to cast a vote will have no impact on their choice to do so."
Because Lloyds are opening an office in Brussels ?
Worth pointing out what Lloyd's is, it's the insurance market. That is, it's the market, not the insurers. This new office then allows all of those insurers access to the entire EU marketplace. So in terms of jobs moving it's not really 100 out of 700, it's 100 jobs out of 30,000
I am not sure what you are trying to say. I did not mention "jobs". But it is important that they felt the necessity to be "there". In the days of the internet and modern communication, you can have your staff anywhere. But they still want to have a presence in the EU.
They already have several presences in the EU.....
Comments
Lewes is the one. Remain friendly with a 5.5% green vote. I make it very, very close - and the Greens withdrawing there could tip it to Blundell.
If UKIP also withdraw though then I think the Tories win.
Also, polling tends to show Remain sentiment is stronger among people who didn't vote in the Referendum.
Nuttall emailed all local party branches to give them the green light not to run against a pro-Brexit incumbent
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3424883/ukip-could-field-just-100-candidates-at-general-election-as-paul-nuttall-struggles-to-find-wannabe-mps/
100% nailed on Mercedes track, historically, so if Ferrari can win here, they can take the championship. For now, my money would still be in Mercedes/Hamilton to win here, but the practice sessions will be very interesting indeed (to those few of us interested in such things).
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/610808/NS_Table_3_15_1415.xlsx
Also the ONS have published detailed data on the number of households in poverty based on middle layer areas - broadly electoral wards/devisions I think.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/smallareamodelbasedhouseholdsinpovertyestimatesenglandandwales/financialyearending2014
Green -> Lib Dem transfer alot more likely than Green -> Tory transfer I reckon.
The UK would never have exercised its veto.
Passing's hard, safety car likely. Backed, and tipped, Force India for double points at 3 (Ladbrokes) the other day. Not certain by any stretch, but given they've done it at 3/3 races so far, the odds are wonky.
Women favour a ban more strongly than men and it is supported in all regions except London. A third of Lib Dems, Labourites and Remainers support a ban.
I imagine that very few Conservative Remain voters think they were wrong to vote Remain, but not many of them are unhappy with the outcome either. Plenty of them post here, and plenty of them are represented in the Parliamentary party.
The percentage of voters who wish to overturn Brexit is far lower than 45% (ICM found it to be 21%).
The whole EU family used to go to Restaurant A, with Mum (Ger) and Dad (UK) paying for everyone, with Auntie (Fra) chipping in. Mum and Dad are getting divorced, so Dad wants to go to Restaurant B with some new friends in the hope of starting a new family. Mum, Auntie Frances and the rest still want Dad to pay his share of their bill. Dad would like to stay friends with everyone, but Mum and Aunty Frances don't want him to come into the restaurant - he may be allowed to wave through the window if continues to pay a share of the bill.
Consequently I'm of the opinion the NE will be a bloodbath, and had further concluded to lump on Sunderland Central but can only find 3/1. Don't think that's value? Conclusion- I think too slow
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/beat-me-harder-this-time-begs-goldsmith-20170427126713
Does Restaurant B have hot waitresses?
Dad should tell them to get stuffed and go and spend his money in Sportscar Salesroom C and Whorehouse D followed by a weekend at Golf Course E.
I bear no mark of shame, and I'd do it all over again.
Where I might agree (a little bit) is that there is a risk the UK becomes slightly more illiberal: that is, we extend extensive and sweeping surveillance powers, ID cards make a comeback, and we get a bit more executive authoritarianism.
That's why I think it's so important to launch a cross-party constitutional convention, to create a new British Bill of Rights, reform the HoL, and devolution settlements, and ensure our governance in general is fit-for-purpose as a fully independent nation, with the right checks and balances in place.
But, I'm not holding my breath.
It gives her zero additional flexibility in the EU, which is where the negotiations are...
I don't often agree with Mr Meeks, but he's correct about Turkey. A cursory inspection of Turkey's woeful progress in meeting the accession criteria would have shown that they had no chance of joining, vetoes notwithstanding. Turkish accession has always been a polite diplomatic fiction, useful for both parties.
Where I think he errs is in assuming that all Leave voters took their cues from the dreadful EUref campaign (both sides were terrible, it's arguable who were the greater sinners). I'd been an 'on balance, out' since 2008 or so. I've since repented of that view as regulars will know. However, I'm not wearing a hair-shirt and indulging in self-flagellation. Sorry.
Rother Valley is much, much more white - though the odds don't particularly appeal either way (It is more or less Evens the pair). It'll be very close.
I've built a model that allows +% and -% for each individual, based on last election's vote.
When people talk about swing, do they reference turnout at all, or is it just +% -%?
Basically, I'm wondering if I should make it even more complex with a turnout facility.....
Even if Turkey might not be joining imminently, if it had reformed and the French/Austrian veto threats been lifted, it could have joined in 5-10, and the UK would have done nothing to stop it, and this was a once in a generation vote.
It wasn't the job of Vote Leave to point out the Government was secretly lying. All political campaigns exploit the political weaknesses of their opponents, and the Government decided not to contest it deciding it was the job of the voters to work out they were lying.
With this year's hard to handle cars, and a couple of dodgy drivers, the safety car is a banker (which ought also to help Mercedes, as this is a circuit at which they might be fuel constrained).
Labour's campaign:
"Many among the hundreds of thousands who joined Labour to support Corbyn will not campaign to help Labour MPs defend their seats against a formidable Tory attack. As they see every Labour politician who refuses to see the light as a Tory or worse than the Tories, why should they? Labour MPs are already telling me that Momentum activists are noticeable by their absence from the campaign."
Nomenklatura, post-election:
"Corbyn and the far left will not willingly relinquish their grip on the Labour party after they lead it to defeat. They will continue to purge Labour until it becomes a true church. This is religion not politics, and Corbyn’s supporters are the elect. Why should they respect the judgement of a damned electorate?"
Few here will be surprised by Cohen's comments, but still. He does have a way with words.
Not many turned out to see the Supreme leader speak.
Are we not getting to the stage where some of the overreaction and betting in response to it means there is some great value in backing Labour in some seats?
It is a question I have myself too.
"My view is that views of BREXIT is more important in constituencies that voted remain than those that went for leave. Thus LAB was able to hang on in the Stoke central by-election but in Richmond Park the Liberal Democrats were able to overturn Zac’s 23,000 General Election majority even though UKIP stood aside and gave him a free run"
That feels right. It's very difficult for Remain supporters to accept with equanimity a result we believe was achieved by appealing to the lowest common denominator. Of course we're going to do all we can to sabotage those with these unenlightened views.
- Turkey joining the EU would have an impact on us.
- Let's give up our veto on Turkey joining the EU because we don't trust our own government to use it anyway.
The EU impacts us whether we're in or out because it is the supreme political body in Europe. There is no getting away from this fact.
If the PM wanted a mandate for her brand of Brexit, she'd spell out clearly what that is. She already has a majority in the House of Commons, so that fact will not change. The Lords are not up for election, so that will not change either. And as Scott_P points out, nor will it change any other European government or the EU itself. This election was not called because of Brexit.
Hammersmith @ 2-1
Leeds NorthEast @ more or less evens.
Look for remainy/ethnic or "middle class Labour" places imo.
Turkey is not joining the EU, was not joining the EU last summer and for the foreseeable future will not be joining the EU.
But you were happy to campaign on the basis of a poster showing little Muslim footprints marching towards Britain.
This discussion isn't going anywhere.
No there isn't. The last two have moved in favour of Remain, following a particularly good score for Leave on April 7th. It's all movement around roughly 45/12/43. Trying to claim there's a trend when there isn't just to suit a Remoaner agenda is beneath what's otherwise a very good site.
DYOR
If true, it is a classic and quite revealing bit of Theresa May in action. David Cameron might’ve proclaimed a liberal project like this, maybe even risked a fight with his grassroots over it (in the early days of his leadership, at least). Theresa May, by contrast, prefers to get the job done without fuss or, depending on how you look at it, without scrutiny.
https://www.channel4.com/news/by/gary-gibbon/blogs/tory-selections-women-on-the-march?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Wah! £350m! Turkey! Apocalypse Tomorrow! A big boy lied to me and ran away!
Sure the Dreamiliner will not experience our problems and of course Perth is 1,500 miles nearer than Sydney
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/857501791822516224
Says the guy that got triggered in Ronnie Scott's Jazz Club over Brexit.
The veteran left-wing filmmaker told a union meeting yesterday that Robinson had revealed himself as a Tory supporter in a tweet that stated Mr Corbyn was “long on passion and short on details”.
He said: “That’s the partiality of the BBC. That’s the bias we have to complain about. That’s what we have to fight.”
Amid cheers from the audience, Loach, 80, also appeared to say that “people like Nick Robinson” were not fit to “lick his [Jeremy Corbyn’s] boots”.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/biased-bbc-reporter-is-booed-rs8bd5dwz
I tried it last time and the main impression it gave me was how easy it was for the Tories to win a small majority with big gains in certain areas. E.G. SW....
I'm guessing the way to show depressed turnout (without me banging my head against another nested index match) is to put labour vote down 16%, Tories up 8% and Plaid up 2%.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/davidson-drags-party-back-from-the-brink-0z0xkbc35
I am very comfortable with the campaign that was fought and my own personal character, thank you.
I couldn't give a toss what you think of me.
He said "Where are you going?"
I said "Haven't they told you?"
Hove @ 7/4 is another.
However, the Muslim Council of Britain said it could see "no reason" why holding the election during Ramadan - which this year is expected to be from around May 27 to June 24 - should have any impact on Muslims turning up to vote.
"Muslims fasting during Ramadan will go about their normal daily activities and taking time out to cast a vote will have no impact on their choice to do so."
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-criticised-by-muslim-mps-for-scheduling-election-during-ramadan-a3524506.html