I'm sure all the Leavers on here who like to claim that Mr Meeks is morally tainted by spending time in Hungary will be applauding Guy Verhofstadt for this:
I don't often agree with Mr Meeks, but he's correct about Turkey. A cursory inspection of Turkey's woeful progress in meeting the accession criteria would have shown that they had no chance of joining, vetoes notwithstanding. Turkish accession has always been a polite diplomatic fiction, useful for both parties.
Where I think he errs is in assuming that all Leave voters took their cues from the dreadful EUref campaign (both sides were terrible, it's arguable who were the greater sinners). I'd been an 'on balance, out' since 2008 or so. I've since repented of that view as regulars will know. However, I'm not wearing a hair-shirt and indulging in self-flagellation. Sorry.
According to Mr Meeks, your shame is indelible. I take that as meaning Luke 15:10 doesn't apply to people to voted Leave.
I regret my vote, but only in the same way I regret not taking History at A-level. The disapproval of random people on the Internet doesn't carry much weight with me .
Quite right. What's the point of regretting? But following my comment OT earlier, you're the first person I have come across on the internet or in real life who has changed from Leave to Remain. There must be a deal of churn to make up for those going the other way.
Where I am currently sat in Vienna is equally protectionist. Indeed an Irish collegue lives in Vienna but cannot obtain work here because the Austrians will not hire any non Austrian. The Economist has a good summary of why the Single Market in services does not work - see below.
I was watching a good video on Deutsche Welle about German Fisherman being dependent on UK waters. I personally doubt that any compromise will be available on fishing for several obvious reasons - the first being that Theresa May can turn what were previously Red / Flirting with Independence Scots Fishing communities Blue for a generation by telling the EU to take a running jump. Secondly the market for fish is now global. There are species of fish where they are shipped out to China, filleted and shipped back. The Chinese are paranoid about food supply after numerous poisoning scandals, they certainly trust British food supplies so the fish can probably be sold to China. If not they will find ready markets in other parts of the world - just look at the Icelandic Fisheries industry. But the point is that Western European countries are vulnerable in certain key sectors, and whilst Merkel has reigned them in for now it will be a bit different in 2 years when 10% of the Bavarian workforce at BMW is chucked out of the door. The problem lies in the Romania's and Croatia's of this world who don't really deal much with UK Plc. Of course they are incredibly vulnerable in Security but that is a different discussion.
The big Atom Bomb for me is the City. That 74% non SEPA is where European Banks currently on life support get their liquidity. If we took our bat home and started charging them a great deal more calling it "Political Risk" (Just as the Indians and the Chinese did to Russia post OFAC sanctions charging an additional 2%) then we could burn Europe to the ground. I know already that the UK has instructed a very large bank to set up European Subsidiaries because they don't want UK PLC responsible for Eurozone default (Which will no doubt be cited by Remain supporters as evidence of UK weakness when they move some staff to cover this), it is not a long road from there to charging a couple of hundred basis points.
Wow. You really know nothing about banking.
Care to elaborate?
I'm on my phone, but in brief, Eurozone banks are back stopped by the ECB in the same way that British banks are by the BoE. So long as the ECB is willing to lend to a bank, then that bank lives. There is no way that "The City" could meaningfully pull the plug on the Eurozone banking sector. (Not least because the UK, in aggregate, needs to import capital from the Eurozone.)
Turkey will join the EU when muslim votes become a significant force in France and Germany. Why would a muslim voter support european aparthied. Muslim votes in the UK made Cameron support accession.
Been doing some thinking about the anecdotal evidence of heavier drift in Labour's heartlands, especially the NE. I'm wondering if this might be an effect of proximity to Scotland and a washover of the meltdown there felt less in London and the South seeing events in that 'distant realm'. Consequently I'm of the opinion the NE will be a bloodbath, and had further concluded to lump on Sunderland Central but can only find 3/1. Don't think that's value? Conclusion- I think too slow
Blyth Valley goes before Sunderland Central according to my spreadsheet. I got some pennies on at 4-1.
I remember all the hype re Sunderland Central before the 2010 election. It had voted Tory in the local elections, boundaries couldn't be better blah blah blah. In the end they got nowhere near. UKIP and Tory combined are still behind Labour.
Are we not getting to the stage where some of the overreaction and betting in response to it means there is some great value in backing Labour in some seats?
They're got to 6500 short. They'd fancy it transposing that to now, 8% swing from 2010 IF the kipper vote goes hard Tory, there's a sniff. I would back Labour at over evens not at odds on given polling and mood music in the north.
If you find anyone offering Labour at anywhere near Evens I would bite their hand off...
I don't often agree with Mr Meeks, but he's correct about Turkey. A cursory inspection of Turkey's woeful progress in meeting the accession criteria would have shown that they had no chance of joining, vetoes notwithstanding. Turkish accession has always been a polite diplomatic fiction, useful for both parties.
Where I think he errs is in assuming that all Leave voters took their cues from the dreadful EUref campaign (both sides were terrible, it's arguable who were the greater sinners). I'd been an 'on balance, out' since 2008 or so. I've since repented of that view as regulars will know. However, I'm not wearing a hair-shirt and indulging in self-flagellation. Sorry.
According to Mr Meeks, your shame is indelible. I take that as meaning Luke 15:10 doesn't apply to people to voted Leave.
Remainers are much more Luke 14:18
Wah! £350m! Turkey! Apocalypse Tomorrow! A big boy lied to me and ran away!
£350m is going to happen
Either Turkey was going to join, or Turkey was not going to join and the EU was collectively trolling it, or Turkey was not going to join and Turkey was aware of that and it and the EU were collectively trolling their own citizens ("the little people" as they call them in Brussels). In any of those cases, the Remainers were and are the ones who are peddling a lie.
And as for the even sillier argument that it wasn't going to happen for decades - I have about 25 years left in the tank (which I am guessing is about the average for PB), I have children, and if I didn't I am not a Leadsomite, and this was a once in a generation decision.
Let's all, including those of us who voted remain but can process disappointment like adults, laugh at the Remainers.
Totally OT - Qantas have confirmed they'll start non-stop London-Australia (Perth) flights next year. 18.5 hours in the air seems like a very long time.....
It is - we went Heathrow to Sydney with Quantas with refuel in Bangkok scheduled in 20 hours. However one hour into the Bangkok to Sydney section we lost one of the engines, had to turn back and circle while jettising fuel, and then a full emergency landing back in Bangkok.
I remember my first flight to Australia - Christmas day (the fares dropped) on a 747 to Bangkok then got on the equivalent of an aerial 'milk train from Bangkok to Cairns - with stops in Singapore & Darwin - they kept playing the same Mr Bean movie over and over again.....
Been doing some thinking about the anecdotal evidence of heavier drift in Labour's heartlands, especially the NE. I'm wondering if this might be an effect of proximity to Scotland and a washover of the meltdown there felt less in London and the South seeing events in that 'distant realm'. Consequently I'm of the opinion the NE will be a bloodbath, and had further concluded to lump on Sunderland Central but can only find 3/1. Don't think that's value? Conclusion- I think too slow
Blyth Valley goes before Sunderland Central according to my spreadsheet. I got some pennies on at 4-1.
I remember all the hype re Sunderland Central before the 2010 election. It had voted Tory in the local elections, boundaries couldn't be better blah blah blah. In the end they got nowhere near. UKIP and Tory combined are still behind Labour.
Are we not getting to the stage where some of the overreaction and betting in response to it means there is some great value in backing Labour in some seats?
They're got to 6500 short. They'd fancy it transposing that to now, 8% swing from 2010 IF the kipper vote goes hard Tory, there's a sniff. I would back Labour at over evens not at odds on given polling and mood music in the north.
If you find anyone offering Labour at anywhere near Evens I would bite their hand off...
Currently whiling away a train journey to town with some excel geekery, but having a bit of a weak brain movement.
I've built a model that allows +% and -% for each individual, based on last election's vote.
When people talk about swing, do they reference turnout at all, or is it just +% -%?
Basically, I'm wondering if I should make it even more complex with a turnout facility.....
Is 7 -> 14% +7% everywhere, or do you double the score everywhere say. It is a question I have myself too.
The variables are regional and party based - so you can say labour vote down 16% in Wales, Tories up 11%, Plaid up 5% - then see the results.
I tried it last time and the main impression it gave me was how easy it was for the Tories to win a small majority with big gains in certain areas. E.G. SW....
I'm guessing the way to show depressed turnout (without me banging my head against another nested index match) is to put labour vote down 16%, Tories up 8% and Plaid up 2%.
I don't often agree with Mr Meeks, but he's correct about Turkey. A cursory inspection of Turkey's woeful progress in meeting the accession criteria would have shown that they had no chance of joining, vetoes notwithstanding. Turkish accession has always been a polite diplomatic fiction, useful for both parties.
Where I think he errs is in assuming that all Leave voters took their cues from the dreadful EUref campaign (both sides were terrible, it's arguable who were the greater sinners). I'd been an 'on balance, out' since 2008 or so. I've since repented of that view as regulars will know. However, I'm not wearing a hair-shirt and indulging in self-flagellation. Sorry.
According to Mr Meeks, your shame is indelible. I take that as meaning Luke 15:10 doesn't apply to people to voted Leave.
I regret my vote, but only in the same way I regret not taking History at A-level. The disapproval of random people on the Internet doesn't carry much weight with me .
Quite right. What's the point of regretting? But following my comment OT earlier, you're the first person I have come across on the internet or in real life who has changed from Leave to Remain. There must be a deal of churn to make up for those going the other way.
Plenty of reluctant Remain Voters (myself included) who didn't like the Leave campaign, did like Cameron, are still concerned about the economic implications but simply don't care or like the EU enough/at all to fight a battle for it.
Golly how thick is that? the purpose of the election is to secure a big enough majority for May to have flexibility re Brexit and stop the idiot LDs et al from trying to mess up the negotiations.
How a party with 8 MPs can mess up the Brexit negotiations is not immediately apparent.
Several dozen Tory headbangers otoh..
Christ, the knuckle-dragging, headbanging 'Brexit-means-Brexit' crowd are really determined to drink their own Kool-Aid here aren't they?
Because the Brexit negotiations are political not economic, the only leverage we have is the potential that - treated fairly - goodwill may persist, and the UK may rejoin the EU in the next 10-15 years. Sort of like a sabbatical whilst we take some time off and get over the last of our colonial baggage.
However, if the rest of Europe feels that a hardline government is now in power with a massive majority which is determined to close off ties with Europe and try to turn the clock back, then there is no choice but to play hardball, and make the break as quick and clean as possible, with all that entails for our trade, migrant community and standing in the world.
Personally, I'd go with a pluralistic parliament with vibrant debate and differences of opinion over some sort of 'we're all united behind Teresa' ahead of negotiations, but that doesn't look very likely...
For fsck's sake... after a few days good quality debate to we really have to go back to the "Oh yes they did/Oh no they didn't" level of debate on BrExit all over again.... and on the basis of what, a graph showing the best demonstration of variance within Margin of Error I can think of.
Because Lloyds are opening an office in Brussels ?
Worth pointing out what Lloyd's is, it's the insurance market. That is, it's the market, not the insurers. This new office then allows all of those insurers access to the entire EU marketplace. So in terms of jobs moving it's not really 100 out of 700, it's 100 jobs out of 30,000
A lot of those jobs are coming from other overseas offices and others are new hires - Lloyd's themselves admitted this is no big change for them.
I know Lloyds had this office in Brussels prior to the Brexit referendum set up in the early 90's I believe. Their Chairman John Nelson stated “London will remain the major financial centre for Europe. It’s certainly going to remain the major financial centre for Lloyd’s.” Again as in Finance, European Risk could attract a greater premium post Brexit which will effect the European Economies more than the UK. It can also result in jobs moving to the UK that were previously covered by EU Passporting being carried out in other EU nations. With the obvious point that more jobs will go to the 84% of non SEPA markets that are generally growing faster than the 16% that are SEPA markets. That said I don't expect thousands of jobs to move to London in the same way I don't expect thousands of jobs to move to Europe with the exception I gave below when the UK instructed Finance to move some of its Eurozone risk to Eurozone locations because it is worried about default risk being carried by the UK taxpayer (And they are right to be worried no matter how many "Bad Banks" EU nations see fit to create a la Banco Espírito Santo). I do expect a Switchboard Operator, Security Guard and a bloke with some Brasso to polish the name plate to be employed both sides of the Brexit border.
As an aside, I am interested to see whether the UK lands the lions share of the Saudi Aramco IPO or whether it goes to New York. Because these kind of deals are the UK's future post Brexit - boosting that 84%. The UK has had great boosts in Dim Sum & Massala Bond markets, but the Equity market has lagged.
Muslim votes in the UK made Cameron support accession.
The UK supported Turkey because it is a strategic priority to bring a middle Eastern country into Europe's orbit and have a secular Muslim majority country.
For Leavers worried about rampaging Muslims, it is far better to reform the barbarians at the gate than to simply ignore them.
I don't often agree with Mr Meeks, but he's correct about Turkey. A cursory inspection of Turkey's woeful progress in meeting the accession criteria would have shown that they had no chance of joining, vetoes notwithstanding. Turkish accession has always been a polite diplomatic fiction, useful for both parties.
Where I think he errs is in assuming that all Leave voters took their cues from the dreadful EUref campaign (both sides were terrible, it's arguable who were the greater sinners). I'd been an 'on balance, out' since 2008 or so. I've since repented of that view as regulars will know. However, I'm not wearing a hair-shirt and indulging in self-flagellation. Sorry.
According to Mr Meeks, your shame is indelible. I take that as meaning Luke 15:10 doesn't apply to people to voted Leave.
I regret my vote, but only in the same way I regret not taking History at A-level. The disapproval of random people on the Internet doesn't carry much weight with me .
Quite right. What's the point of regretting? But following my comment OT earlier, you're the first person I have come across on the internet or in real life who has changed from Leave to Remain. There must be a deal of churn to make up for those going the other way.
I was never particularly passionate either for or against the EU. I did bear in mind that this was likely a generational vote (i.e. 30-40 years) and tried to think about the issue on those timescales. Those interested enough can see how I fretted about our ability to execute Brexit and the fragility of our economy simply by reading some of the 2016 threads on PB.
I've never had a problem with admitting to a mistake; it's better than deluding oneself. I'm sure I'm not alone, as you say.
For fsck's sake... after a few days good quality debate to we really have to go back to the "Oh yes they did/Oh no they didn't" level of debate on BrExit all over again.... and on the basis of what, a graph showing the best demonstration of variance within Margin of Error I can think of.
Yawnarama.
It really is tawdry - despite all the polling, selection battles, and campaigning of the GE going on, Mike decides to pick up on a margin of error movement and make a thread header on it because it suits his worldview.
The sweet spot for the Davidson project, the buzz-phrase that pings around her camp, is being “nationalist-unionists”. As paradoxical as this may sound, it is quite a simple thing: to be seen to stand up for Scotland without wanting to rip it out of the UK.
I would love to see more of that, rivalry not enmity between the nations of the UK.
For fsck's sake... after a few days good quality debate to we really have to go back to the "Oh yes they did/Oh no they didn't" level of debate on BrExit all over again.... and on the basis of what, a graph showing the best demonstration of variance within Margin of Error I can think of.
The sweet spot for the Davidson project, the buzz-phrase that pings around her camp, is being “nationalist-unionists”. As paradoxical as this may sound, it is quite a simple thing: to be seen to stand up for Scotland without wanting to rip it out of the UK.
I would love to see more of that, rivalry not enmity between the nations of the UK.
In what form do you think this rivalry should express itself in England?
It is an official candidate that is going through the accession process. It was UK Government policy that Turkish membership is a UK foreign policy goal, which the Government chose not to deny.
I bear no mark of shame, and I'd do it all over again.
Of course you would. You're very relaxed about whipping up xenophobia with lies, just so long as you achieve your irrelevant dream of getting Britain out of the EU.
Nope. It was a legitimate way of framing the free movement issue, and its potential future impact. Where would it end?
Even if Turkey might not be joining imminently, if it had reformed and the French/Austrian veto threats been lifted, it could have joined in 5-10, and the UK would have done nothing to stop it, and this was a once in a generation vote.
It wasn't the job of Vote Leave to point out the Government was secretly lying. All political campaigns exploit the political weaknesses of their opponents, and the Government decided not to contest it deciding it was the job of the voters to work out they were lying.
It's ok. You're very comfortable with direct lies in pursuit of your dream, no matter how much incidental damage they cause. So much is clear.
Turkey is not joining the EU, was not joining the EU last summer and for the foreseeable future will not be joining the EU.
But you were happy to campaign on the basis of a poster showing little Muslim footprints marching towards Britain.
They weren't direct lies. And I don't accept any incidental damage has been caused.
This discussion isn't going anywhere.
Turkey is not joining the EU. Any suggestion to the contrary is a direct lie. This isn't even debatable except in the tortured minds of manic Leavers who are desperate not to admit that they have behaved deplorably and done great incidental damage by their actions.
Joining the EU is a process and that process formally started in 2005 for Turkey, any suggestion it was not joining when the accession process was underway is a lie.
I'm on my phone, but in brief, Eurozone banks are back stopped by the ECB in the same way that British banks are by the BoE. So long as the ECB is willing to lend to a bank, then that bank lives. There is no way that "The City" could meaningfully pull the plug on the Eurozone banking sector. (Not least because the UK, in aggregate, needs to import capital from the Eurozone.)
Wasn't there something about the German Finance Ministry being happy for banking jobs to move to the EU provided the UK government remained on the hook for some of the more adventurous banking activity? In other words they were content for German and other EU residents to tap into this activity as long as their own authorities were ring-fenced from it.
I am trying to be fair but today's stump speech by Corbyn was so amateur. He arrives and he stands with his back to the cameras, someone grabs him and swivels him to the camera, starts his speech with mic not working, then delivers his usual rant, and all set in a field somewhere
Oh dear. I hope PBers who invested in Macron have taken their profits!
Macron said that he could not stop companies from firing workers, but that he would fight to find a buyer for the plant or to retrain workers. Thanks, mate! Le Pen promised to save the plant. She promises to keep the nearly 300 jobs there that are supposed to be moved to Poland next year. She said she would discourage companies from moving jobs abroad by hitting them in the wallet with a 35% tax on any products imported from plants that are outsourced from France.
Scoffing at the electorate, banker Macron's banker friend Jacques Attali said "The president of the Republic isn’t here to fix every individual case". That is a terribly prattish thing to say during an election. I wonder how much more we will hear from him.
The point is that when it comes to a dingdong fight, Macron cannot answer Le Pen in a robust and attractive way, and he looks awfully weak and shifty, and basically a right pile of a politician.
She, though, gets framed as a fighter for the people, against politicians, bankers, and against the way that the rich don't give a damn and will shut enterprises down in France and move them to Poland if they can make more profit that way. She is selling her nationalist-populist brand extremely well.
Macron said Le Pen was just “making a political use” of the workers. Then, guess what? He said he'd visit them too. He did, and got booed to hell.
There is ZERO chance there will be a Remain majority as Tories, UKIP and Labour will all be different shades of Leave in their manifestos.
This is, sadly, another manifestation of cheering for the winning team.
Random Tory MP: "Leaving the EU would be terrible"
You lost
"We will make a huge success of the thing I said would be terrible. Vote for me"
Not that many Tories actually said leaving would be terrible. Most who backed Remain did so on balance rather than wholeheartedly.
Yes but subtle analysis is too difficult for some. Easier to snipe 'You must be thick because you disagree with me and I am intelligent. And pure. So you must be ghastly. QED.'
I see Mr Verhofstadt will not accept "Social Dumping" in any agreement. The EU really, really, doesn't want its own citizens back.
This is where the substance of the negotiations will be.
The EU will want the UK to heavily tie its own hands on regulation in exchange for a goods and services deal, so it can't benefit from taking a different course, and is obliged to transpose future EU directives/regulations into UK law without having a vote in any of them.
In other words: a surrogate EEA sans free movement.
The question to which we don't yet have an answer is to what extent Theresa May will be able to put boundaries on this in the negotiations, and whether she will exercise that choice even if she can.
I think she will take it because her political prizes are formally ending free movement, formally quitting ECJ oversight, and going for new trade deals, whilst minimising economic damage and maintaining the Union.
Analogy time. You and your family or peer group debate whether to eat at restaurant A or restaurant B. You favour A, the majority favours B. You go to restaurant B. Do you do your best to ensure that the group has a good time at restaurant B or do you sulk for the rest of the evening, insult the waiters and pocket the tip on the way out?
If your peer group has a choice of restaurant A or Restaurant B and you know restaurant B is xenophobic homophobic and racist but because your peer group contains a disproportionate number of the old and the uneducated they prefer 'their own' do you say 'no' not under any circumstances or do you abandon the values of your lifetime and say "What the Hell and after dinner we can beat up some Poles?'
Labour & SNP Muslim MPs whinging about GE taken off at the knees by Muslim Council of GB:
However, the Muslim Council of Britain said it could see "no reason" why holding the election during Ramadan - which this year is expected to be from around May 27 to June 24 - should have any impact on Muslims turning up to vote.
"Muslims fasting during Ramadan will go about their normal daily activities and taking time out to cast a vote will have no impact on their choice to do so."
Both sides lied. The level of relative mendacity can be debated, but the existence cannot. One side won. That side has to own the victory.
The Turkey-about-to-join-the-EU line was not true, and known to not be true by those peddling it, who had a specific reason for peddling it. The £350 million a week line was not true, but it got the Remain side talking about it (generating publicity) and when you have to explain the real number, you've already lost the debate.
I'm surprised the Leave side still feel the need to try to rationalise either of those lines. They weren't true, but they worked, they were very skilfully chosen, and they achieved their intent.
I think she will take it because her political prizes are formally ending free movement, formally quitting ECJ oversight, and going for new trade deals, whilst minimising economic damage and maintaining the Union.
In your own words 'a surrogate EEA'. Do you think that's pulling the wool over the eyes of the people who voted for it?
Analogy time. You and your family or peer group debate whether to eat at restaurant A or restaurant B. You favour A, the majority favours B. You go to restaurant B. Do you do your best to ensure that the group has a good time at restaurant B or do you sulk for the rest of the evening, insult the waiters and pocket the tip on the way out?
If your peer group has a choice of restaurant A or Restaurant B and you know restaurant B is xenophobic homophobic and racist but because your peer group contains a disproportionate number of the old and the uneducated they prefer 'their own' do you say 'no' not under any circumstances or do you abandon the values of your lifetime and say "What the Hell and after dinner we can beat up some Poles?'
Oh dear. I hope PBers who invested in Macron have taken their profits!
Macron said that he could not stop companies from firing workers, but that he would fight to find a buyer for the plant or to retrain workers. Thanks, mate! Le Pen promised to save the plant. She promises to keep the nearly 300 jobs there that are supposed to be moved to Poland next year. She said she would discourage companies from moving jobs abroad by hitting them in the wallet with a 35% tax on any products imported from plants that are outsourced from France.
Scoffing at the electorate, banker Macron's banker friend Jacques Attali said "The president of the Republic isn’t here to fix every individual case". That is a terribly prattish thing to say during an election. I wonder how much more we will hear from him.
The point is that when it comes to a dingdong fight, Macron cannot answer Le Pen in a robust and attractive way, and he looks awfully weak and shifty, and basically a right pile of a politician.
She, though, gets framed as a fighter for the people, against politicians, bankers, and against the way that the rich don't give a damn and will shut enterprises down in France and move them to Poland if they can make more profit that way. She is selling her nationalist-populist brand extremely well.
Macron said Le Pen was just “making a political use” of the workers. Then, guess what? He said he'd visit them too. He did, and got booed to hell.
Both sides lied. The level of relative mendacity can be debated, but the existence cannot. One side won. That side has to own the victory.
The Turkey-about-to-join-the-EU line was not true, and known to not be true by those peddling it, who had a specific reason for peddling it. The £350 million a week line was not true, but it got the Remain side talking about it (generating publicity) and when you have to explain the real number, you've already lost the debate.
I'm surprised the Leave side still feel the need to try to rationalise either of those lines. They weren't true, but they worked, they were very skilfully chosen, and they achieved their intent.
As was the subliminal racist and xenophobic messaging carried out by the Leave campaign. Is that acceptable too and can we all put it all behind us? Or do we stand up and call it out?
I see Mr Verhofstadt will not accept "Social Dumping" in any agreement. The EU really, really, doesn't want its own citizens back.
The EU just introduced their Social Pillar plan. It's today's leading EU plan so understandably mentioned today. The EU can't bang on about "Unpaid Bills" that look like phone numbers to Pago Pago every day.
How this will work with the Eastern European states whose only competitive advantage in a strong Euro Economy are reduced social costs are a follow on question. I believe it will accelerate the losses of jobs to the core economies of Germany and The Netherlands. Nor is it answered how these opportunities for advancement & maternity/paternity rights will benefit the horrendous numbers of Europeans without a job.
I am trying to be fair but today's stump speech by Corbyn was so amateur. He arrives and he stands with his back to the cameras, someone grabs him and swivels him to the camera, starts his speech with mic not working, then delivers his usual rant, and all set in a field somewhere
Oh dear. I hope PBers who invested in Macron have taken their profits!
Macron said that he could not stop companies from firing workers, but that he would fight to find a buyer for the plant or to retrain workers. Thanks, mate! Le Pen promised to save the plant. She promises to keep the nearly 300 jobs there that are supposed to be moved to Poland next year. She said she would discourage companies from moving jobs abroad by hitting them in the wallet with a 35% tax on any products imported from plants that are outsourced from France.
Scoffing at the electorate, banker Macron's banker friend Jacques Attali said "The president of the Republic isn’t here to fix every individual case". That is a terribly prattish thing to say during an election. I wonder how much more we will hear from him.
The point is that when it comes to a dingdong fight, Macron cannot answer Le Pen in a robust and attractive way, and he looks awfully weak and shifty, and basically a right pile of a politician.
She, though, gets framed as a fighter for the people, against politicians, bankers, and against the way that the rich don't give a damn and will shut enterprises down in France and move them to Poland if they can make more profit that way. She is selling her nationalist-populist brand extremely well.
Macron said Le Pen was just “making a political use” of the workers. Then, guess what? He said he'd visit them too. He did, and got booed to hell.
You may be right. But this thing about a factory closing down is fixture of all French elections. It's like having a German market in your town at Christmas. Every time politicians say they will do whatever it takes to prevent the closure; every time they do absolutely nothing about it afterwards. It comes down to whether Le Pen is more credible than Macron, while being even more disingenuous. There's no way she can slap a 35% tax on Polish imports, even if it made sense.
I'm on my phone, but in brief, Eurozone banks are back stopped by the ECB in the same way that British banks are by the BoE. So long as the ECB is willing to lend to a bank, then that bank lives. There is no way that "The City" could meaningfully pull the plug on the Eurozone banking sector. (Not least because the UK, in aggregate, needs to import capital from the Eurozone.)
Where does the BIS fit in? Don't they have a role in ensuring capital adequacy for both the BoE and the ECB?
Also, if you have time, the Clubs of Paris and London? (I've noticed that the Paris Club is on the syllabus for student economists in several third world countries, whereas an acquaintance who got bachelor's and master's degrees in economics in a Scandinavian country told me she had never heard of it.)
So Macron lives in the real world while Le Pen is a cross between Corbyn and Trump?
I watched a view minutes of Macron debating with the workers at the Whirlpool factory and he came across very well. Whether you like him or not, or agree with him or not, he is no Hillary Clinton or Justin Trudeau.
Remember when we were initially spin that he was just a poor kid who had got led astray....
British jihadi killed in drone strike approved by Cameron was plotting terror attack on Britain's streets
Khan was a prolific radicaliser, recruiter and attack-planner for Islamic State. Its report said: ‘He orchestrated numerous plots to murder large numbers of UK citizens and those of our allies, as part of a wider terrorist group which considers itself at war with the West.’
They say in betting that you notice the bad luck four times more than the good. When things are going your way it feels as if that's how it should be, when they don't it feels unfair. A bit like riding a bike with the wind behind you... you don't notice the wind, but when it's in your face you notice it alright!
That's your hardcore Remain voters. They thought the status quo was the natural way of things because it suited them. They also believed it was a majority view
It's almost as if 1973 is the year zero for the most obsessive ultra-Remainers.
Which is daft, but even dafter in my opinion is the way they ignore there being many pleasant and prosperous countries outside of the EU (I thought of adding "and equivalents", but there is no real EU equivalent organisation).
EU membership really isn't all that important in the grand scheme of things.
Analogy time. You and your family or peer group debate whether to eat at restaurant A or restaurant B. You favour A, the majority favours B. You go to restaurant B. Do you do your best to ensure that the group has a good time at restaurant B or do you sulk for the rest of the evening, insult the waiters and pocket the tip on the way out?
If your peer group has a choice of restaurant A or Restaurant B and you know restaurant B is xenophobic homophobic and racist but because your peer group contains a disproportionate number of the old and the uneducated they prefer 'their own' do you say 'no' not under any circumstances or do you abandon the values of your lifetime and say "What the Hell and after dinner we can beat up some Poles?'
Neaty sidestepping the 40% of Londoners that voted to Leave, the 38% of Scots that Voted to Leave, the 52% of Welsh that voted Leave.... and critically the slightly over a third of nasty racist BME voters that voted for Leave.
I know... But PM's usually like the symbolism of power they get before an election from rolling into Buck House and then returning to Downing St. after their "audience" with Her Majesty.
I kind of plants that seed in people's minds... Here's the all powerful Mrs May visiting the Queen... And can you imagine Jezza ever doing that?
I think she will take it because her political prizes are formally ending free movement, formally quitting ECJ oversight, and going for new trade deals, whilst minimising economic damage and maintaining the Union.
In your own words 'a surrogate EEA'. Do you think that's pulling the wool over the eyes of the people who voted for it?
She will claim borders, money and ultimate legal authority has been repatriated, and the UK can do its trade deals, so no.
It should also be something the 48% should be able to live with.
Both sides lied. The level of relative mendacity can be debated, but the existence cannot. One side won. That side has to own the victory.
The Turkey-about-to-join-the-EU line was not true, and known to not be true by those peddling it, who had a specific reason for peddling it. The £350 million a week line was not true, but it got the Remain side talking about it (generating publicity) and when you have to explain the real number, you've already lost the debate.
I'm surprised the Leave side still feel the need to try to rationalise either of those lines. They weren't true, but they worked, they were very skilfully chosen, and they achieved their intent.
As was the subliminal racist and xenophobic messaging carried out by the Leave campaign. Is that acceptable too and can we all put it all behind us? Or do we stand up and call it out?
Dance around and proclaim it from the hilltops if it makes you feel better, can't see it changing much though since Article 50 was voted through by a massive majority in Parliament, the vote of the advisory referendum is irrelevant (Thanks to Gina Miller).
I see Mr Verhofstadt will not accept "Social Dumping" in any agreement. The EU really, really, doesn't want its own citizens back.
This is where the substance of the negotiations will be.
The EU will want the UK to heavily tie its own hands on regulation in exchange for a goods and services deal, so it can't benefit from taking a different course, and is obliged to transpose future EU directives/regulations into UK law without having a vote in any of them.
In other words: a surrogate EEA sans free movement.
The question to which we don't yet have an answer is to what extent Theresa May will be able to put boundaries on this in the negotiations, and whether she will exercise that choice even if she can.
I think she will take it because her political prizes are formally ending free movement, formally quitting ECJ oversight, and going for new trade deals, whilst minimising economic damage and maintaining the Union.
I think this is for the FTA negotiations, which will happen after Brexit, probably a long time after it. Any "transition" arrangement will be on current EU terms, according to the EU paper. The EU will offer a "transition" arrangement on a close to "take it or leave it" basis.
Golly how thick is that? the purpose of the election is to secure a big enough majority for May to have flexibility re Brexit and stop the idiot LDs et al from trying to mess up the negotiations.
How a party with 8 MPs can mess up the Brexit negotiations is not immediately apparent.
Several dozen Tory headbangers otoh..
Christ, the knuckle-dragging, headbanging 'Brexit-means-Brexit' crowd are really determined to drink their own Kool-Aid here aren't they?
Because the Brexit negotiations are political not economic, the only leverage we have is the potential that - treated fairly - goodwill may persist, and the UK may rejoin the EU in the next 10-15 years. Sort of like a sabbatical whilst we take some time off and get over the last of our colonial baggage.
However, if the rest of Europe feels that a hardline government is now in power with a massive majority which is determined to close off ties with Europe and try to turn the clock back, then there is no choice but to play hardball, and make the break as quick and clean as possible, with all that entails for our trade, migrant community and standing in the world.
Personally, I'd go with a pluralistic parliament with vibrant debate and differences of opinion over some sort of 'we're all united behind Teresa' ahead of negotiations, but that doesn't look very likely...
If you seriously think that within a decade or so of leaving the UK is going to rejoin ... or that the EU hopes this is a hokey cokey Brexit and is waiting for us to rejoin ... then you're the one overdosing on Kool-Aid.
It's almost as if 1973 is the year zero for the most obsessive ultra-Remainers.
EU membership really isn't all that important in the grand scheme of things.
Exactly - and to be honest EU membership was not the key in the referendum. It was a referendum on foreigners coming into the country, stealing our jobs and stealing our wealth.
the purpose of the election is to secure a big enough majority for May to have flexibility re Brexit
That's the point.
It gives her zero additional flexibility in the EU, which is where the negotiations are...
Lord oh lord. The flexibility needed is in relation to the UK terms. the best chance of a bearable Brexit lies in ensuring that idiot snipers like you have no power to vote her down.
But we have NOT left yet. It is a simple matter of fact, and the full effects of Brexit are unknowable until we HAVE fully left, something which now looks to be in the 2020s with all the talk of transitional arrangements and such like.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Project Fear seems to have died down for now, but I still haven't heard anyone say "we got it wrong". I wonder how many years it will take for people to concede that they hyped it way too much?
Growth will be down to 0.5 or 0.4 tomorrow and it will all start up again. Its tedious.
I'm feeling pretty comfortable about our bet, by the way.
I am not as comfortable as I was but still reasonably confident.
For anyone musing on Labour's uptick in last night's YG, it was among males, 25-64, Labour (ex?) heartlands.
I have doubts about Labour's vote subsiding in the North in the way the early narrative suggested. It's a question of how many Kippers the Tories can pull in.
Jezza winning on Health and Benefits (and by winning I win just ahead)...well I never.On pretty much everything else, Jezza getting pounded like a dockside hooker.
Yes we will be more equal if Corbyn wins, but probably not in the way the electorate would want.
So Corbyn needs to bang on about the NHS from now until election day, as someone with family who work in the NHS, they can attest it is very, very bad. Social care badly needs funding.
(Corbyn will still lose ofcouse it's just a question of how bad).
But we have NOT left yet. It is a simple matter of fact, and the full effects of Brexit are unknowable until we HAVE fully left, something which now looks to be in the 2020s with all the talk of transitional arrangements and such like.
Project Fear wasn't "bad things will happen in 2022" it was "bad things will happen immediately". We had endless updates on here by Remainers about the £ (many anticipating cross over with the € or $) and the FTSE 100. In reality after the first week or two the markets have been quite stable and most economic data since the referendum has been positive, with many upward revisions to economic forecasts.
Project Fear seems to have died down for now, but I still haven't heard anyone say "we got it wrong". I wonder how many years it will take for people to concede that they hyped it way too much?
Growth will be down to 0.5 or 0.4 tomorrow and it will all start up again. Its tedious.
I'm feeling pretty comfortable about our bet, by the way.
I am not as comfortable as I was but still reasonably confident.
What exactly is this bet (if you don't mind me asking)?
I think this is for the FTA negotiations, which will happen after Brexit, probably a long time after it. Any "transition" arrangement will be on current EU terms, according to the EU paper. The EU will offer a "transition" arrangement on a close to "take it or leave it" basis.
Which is why 2022, assuming that's the following general election year, could be a crunch Brexit election. We will be running out the three year "transition" arrangement without a permanent arrangement in place.
There's no way she can slap a 35% tax on Polish imports, even if it made sense.
She isn't saying she would single Poland out, so if she applies it across the board, to certain types of imports from plants that have been (recently) outsourced from France, could she keep within WTO "most favoured nation" requirements? Just asking.
Golly how thick is that? the purpose of the election is to secure a big enough majority for May to have flexibility re Brexit and stop the idiot LDs et al from trying to mess up the negotiations.
How a party with 8 MPs can mess up the Brexit negotiations is not immediately apparent.
Several dozen Tory headbangers otoh..
Christ, the knuckle-dragging, headbanging 'Brexit-means-Brexit' crowd are really determined to drink their own Kool-Aid here aren't they?
Because the Brexit negotiations are political not economic, the only leverage we have is the potential that - treated fairly - goodwill may persist, and the UK may rejoin the EU in the next 10-15 years. Sort of like a sabbatical whilst we take some time off and get over the last of our colonial baggage.
However, if the rest of Europe feels that a hardline government is now in power with a massive majority which is determined to close off ties with Europe and try to turn the clock back, then there is no choice but to play hardball, and make the break as quick and clean as possible, with all that entails for our trade, migrant community and standing in the world.
Personally, I'd go with a pluralistic parliament with vibrant debate and differences of opinion over some sort of 'we're all united behind Teresa' ahead of negotiations, but that doesn't look very likely...
If you seriously think that within a decade or so of leaving the UK is going to rejoin ... or that the EU hopes this is a hokey cokey Brexit and is waiting for us to rejoin ... then you're the one overdosing on Kool-Aid.
Precisely. The EU-phile side lost - narrowly, yes - despite having the status quo advantage. It sure as hell won't win without it.
Yes we will be more equal if Corbyn wins, but probably not in the way the electorate would want.
So Corbyn needs to bang on about the NHS from now until election day, as someone with family who work in the NHS, they can attest it is very, very bad. Social care badly needs funding.
(Corbyn will still lose ofcouse it's just a question of how bad).
I wonder if the Tories might do some counter attack, something like well because of the steady handling of the economy and getting the deficit right down we can promise £x00 million extra a week to the NHS...whispers (by 2020).
Comments
http://tinyurl.com/kvwxe2s
Either Turkey was going to join, or Turkey was not going to join and the EU was collectively trolling it, or Turkey was not going to join and Turkey was aware of that and it and the EU were collectively trolling their own citizens ("the little people" as they call them in Brussels). In any of those cases, the Remainers were and are the ones who are peddling a lie.
And as for the even sillier argument that it wasn't going to happen for decades - I have about 25 years left in the tank (which I am guessing is about the average for PB), I have children, and if I didn't I am not a Leadsomite, and this was a once in a generation decision.
Let's all, including those of us who voted remain but can process disappointment like adults, laugh at the Remainers.
Here is my crack at Wales.
And what's the alternative? Farron ffs
Did we get any more detail Re. last night's Remaintastic YouGov?
Because the Brexit negotiations are political not economic, the only leverage we have is the potential that - treated fairly - goodwill may persist, and the UK may rejoin the EU in the next 10-15 years. Sort of like a sabbatical whilst we take some time off and get over the last of our colonial baggage.
However, if the rest of Europe feels that a hardline government is now in power with a massive majority which is determined to close off ties with Europe and try to turn the clock back, then there is no choice but to play hardball, and make the break as quick and clean as possible, with all that entails for our trade, migrant community and standing in the world.
Personally, I'd go with a pluralistic parliament with vibrant debate and differences of opinion over some sort of 'we're all united behind Teresa' ahead of negotiations, but that doesn't look very likely...
Yawnarama.
As an aside, I am interested to see whether the UK lands the lions share of the Saudi Aramco IPO or whether it goes to New York. Because these kind of deals are the UK's future post Brexit - boosting that 84%. The UK has had great boosts in Dim Sum & Massala Bond markets, but the Equity market has lagged.
https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/857536792110739457
You exaggerate unacceptably
They lie and cheat
Prize for the most stunningly stupid Brexit related question!
The UK supported Turkey because it is a strategic priority to bring a middle Eastern country into Europe's orbit and have a secular Muslim majority country.
For Leavers worried about rampaging Muslims, it is far better to reform the barbarians at the gate than to simply ignore them.
I've never had a problem with admitting to a mistake; it's better than deluding oneself. I'm sure I'm not alone, as you say.
Mr. Putney, thanks. Was expecting the odds to be a bit longer, frankly, but put on a few pounds to go all green on that seat.
http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/culture/michelin-restaurants-in-britain-how-will-brexit-impact-uk-fine-dining-1-4839214
Both sides can play this game, but it's utterly pointless and irrelevant now.
Macron said that he could not stop companies from firing workers, but that he would fight to find a buyer for the plant or to retrain workers. Thanks, mate! Le Pen promised to save the plant. She promises to keep the nearly 300 jobs there that are supposed to be moved to Poland next year. She said she would discourage companies from moving jobs abroad by hitting them in the wallet with a 35% tax on any products imported from plants that are outsourced from France.
Scoffing at the electorate, banker Macron's banker friend Jacques Attali said "The president of the Republic isn’t here to fix every individual case". That is a terribly prattish thing to say during an election. I wonder how much more we will hear from him.
The point is that when it comes to a dingdong fight, Macron cannot answer Le Pen in a robust and attractive way, and he looks awfully weak and shifty, and basically a right pile of a politician.
She, though, gets framed as a fighter for the people, against politicians, bankers, and against the way that the rich don't give a damn and will shut enterprises down in France and move them to Poland if they can make more profit that way. She is selling her nationalist-populist brand extremely well.
Macron said Le Pen was just “making a political use” of the workers. Then, guess what? He said he'd visit them too. He did, and got booed to hell.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQOyfu7CJus
https://order-order.com/2017/04/27/bbcs-community-nurse-is-prolific-corbynista-campaigner/
The EU will want the UK to heavily tie its own hands on regulation in exchange for a goods and services deal, so it can't benefit from taking a different course, and is obliged to transpose future EU directives/regulations into UK law without having a vote in any of them.
In other words: a surrogate EEA sans free movement.
The question to which we don't yet have an answer is to what extent Theresa May will be able to put boundaries on this in the negotiations, and whether she will exercise that choice even if she can.
I think she will take it because her political prizes are formally ending free movement, formally quitting ECJ oversight, and going for new trade deals, whilst minimising economic damage and maintaining the Union.
One side won. That side has to own the victory.
The Turkey-about-to-join-the-EU line was not true, and known to not be true by those peddling it, who had a specific reason for peddling it.
The £350 million a week line was not true, but it got the Remain side talking about it (generating publicity) and when you have to explain the real number, you've already lost the debate.
I'm surprised the Leave side still feel the need to try to rationalise either of those lines. They weren't true, but they worked, they were very skilfully chosen, and they achieved their intent.
https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/857255203816570880/photo/1
http://www.dw.com/en/eu-commission-unveils-pillar-of-social-rights-protection-to-fight-populists/a-38602150
How this will work with the Eastern European states whose only competitive advantage in a strong Euro Economy are reduced social costs are a follow on question. I believe it will accelerate the losses of jobs to the core economies of Germany and The Netherlands. Nor is it answered how these opportunities for advancement & maternity/paternity rights will benefit the horrendous numbers of Europeans without a job.
Also, if you have time, the Clubs of Paris and London? (I've noticed that the Paris Club is on the syllabus for student economists in several third world countries, whereas an acquaintance who got bachelor's and master's degrees in economics in a Scandinavian country told me she had never heard of it.)
British jihadi killed in drone strike approved by Cameron was plotting terror attack on Britain's streets
Khan was a prolific radicaliser, recruiter and attack-planner for Islamic State. Its report said: ‘He orchestrated numerous plots to murder large numbers of UK citizens and those of our allies, as part of a wider terrorist group which considers itself at war with the West.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4449702/British-jihadi-killed-drone-plotting-murder-UK.html
That's your hardcore Remain voters. They thought the status quo was the natural way of things because it suited them. They also believed it was a majority view
EU membership really isn't all that important in the grand scheme of things.
https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/857542467570343937
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/857538665341440000
Pitiful.
I kind of plants that seed in people's minds... Here's the all powerful Mrs May visiting the Queen... And can you imagine Jezza ever doing that?
https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/857542599212756992
Milne's team foul up again.
Just imagine this moron leading the country....just for a second imagine it...
It should also be something the 48% should be able to live with.
Try and see the shades of grey.
Theresa May more trusted than Jeremy Corbyn on four out of five key election issues
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-more-trusted-than-jeremy-corbyn-on-four-out-of-five-key-election-issues-a3525271.html
I have doubts about Labour's vote subsiding in the North in the way the early narrative suggested. It's a question of how many Kippers the Tories can pull in.
(Corbyn will still lose ofcouse it's just a question of how bad).